Talk Elections

Details here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/arizona-republican-debate-how-to-find-it/2012/02/22/gIQAlARmTR_blog.html

The debate begins at 8pm Eastern on CNN.  Moderated by John King, Wolf Blitzer, and Erin Burnett.

Oh, and this might be the last debate of the campaign.

Dramatic intro here:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/02/cnns-grand-showdown-in-mesa-az-115221.html

This is the last debate? :(

Hallelujah!

EDIT: As always, a group of us will be in the forum chat.  To join, visit http://Mibbit (http://www.mibbit.com/) and go to the #atlasforum channel.  Join now for the pre-debate party.

Maybe.  The pre-Super Tuesday debate in Georgia was cancelled because Romney, Santorum, and Paul didn't want to participate.  It's unclear if Romney or Santorum will agree to any more debates after this one.

With the pressure of high expectations off of him for now, this might be a fun one for Newt.

Not to mention the presence of his archnemesis.

Will the debate be streamed online anywhere?

I wonder if this last debate will be a turning point for the next candidate to drop out.

It would be hilarious is Gingrich has a last minute surge from this debate, and wins both Michigan and Arizona.

Don't know if you've found a link already, but just in case: http://www.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_t1#/video/cvplive/cvpstream1 (http://www.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_t1#/video/cvplive/cvpstream1)

Another overdramatic entry.

I expect John King to be leading in the polls by Friday.

Wait. They have desks?

Gay Men's Chior?

+1

Thank God we have applause in this one. Go Newt!

Does anyone actually stand at home for the anthem? I do it when I am at the location, but at home? What the hell did John King mean by that, and why the hell does it bug me :P

Newt, drop out while you can...

PLAY BALL!

Newt has the best tie tonight.

I'm here!

I wonder if the now out of the closet Sheriff is present?

Rick Santorum got a little excited and messed up his name.

Nope, no ashes.

The Champion of Liberty. Lawl.

Mitt, you're being awkward again.

Romney was slightly less awkward.

My ironic man Newt!

The audience is in Romney's pocket this time. He wins the debate.

Gilbert Pedler from Gilbert, Arizona? LOL

I didn't know the US Flag could ask questions......

Haha Romney stops talking when he gets applause.

I find that ironic actually, but good question he asked.

What is this deficit you speak of?

Candidates are sitting tonight? And very close to each other? Odd. Feels like I'm watching Meet the Press

If I ever meet Santorum, I want to punch him with my boney, weak, pathetic hands in his face. He wants to take away food stamps from the poor (which, by the way, should be reformed or left to the states) but will not cut defense spending at all??

I really want Paul's answer on this question.

Santorum's forehead is bare...

WHY HAS HE BETRAYED JESUS.

Romney won the debate.

This is a very pro-Romney audience.

looks like Mitt has packed the place full of Mormons.

Yes, Santorum does have an annoying way of winning me over during debates. I think I would be able to swing around to support him by the time fall and endgame come along (though I might have to compensate by voting for Sherrod or something).

Has George Bush been mentioned by name in any of these debates?

Yup, just cut more taxes.

Another Mitt flipflop :D

And cut government spending...

GUYS! LET'S BALANCE THE BUDGET BY CUTTING REVENUES!

hahhaha newt gingrich's tie is awesome.

Newt would look from economic growth and low unemployment before balancing the budget!? :O

SOCIALIST!

Paul to Santorum: Your fake.

Ron Paul has the giggles as he lights up Santorum.

Ron "Earmarks" Paul is criticizing other people for fiscal irresponsibility. Great. ::)

Did they purposely sit Ron Paul next to Santorum? I could see Santorum punching him...

Once again, Paul took a slice of the pie, since he could not reduce it.

You just know Santorum wants to beat the sh**t outta The Champion of Liberty™

"Foreeeeeign aidddddd is EVULZ!?" - Ron Paul

Are there any Santorum/Newt supporters in the crowd?

There were only 50 senators?

LOL, so true

I hope Santorum slugs Paul as hard as he could....then Santorum would be forced to drop out.

Yeah, that would be the day.

Ron Paul clearly chugged a 5 Hour Energy before this debate.

Pauls on fire tonight.

Ron Paul looks like he's going to drop dead at any moment...

Why is Ron Paul even invited to these things anymore? He hasn't won a single state and he's polling single digits in Arizona and Michigan.

"I was a conservative governor in Massachusetts" cuts to Romney's "I'm a progressive governor" line from when he was governor. Expect it on the DNC's Youtube channel by morning.

Still makes him a hypocrite......

You gotta keep the Libertarian wing of the GOP happy.

Have you checked the actual delagate count? He is doing quite well.

CLASS WARFARE!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111

This chair-table setup makes Newt look really fat.

Anyone else think Newt has a sore throat? It sounds a bit more scratchy than usual and he's been clearing his throat a lot.

I was thinking the same thing myself.

He looks like someone should be hand-feeding him grapes.

He was cheated out of winning Iowa and Maine and he is a serious contender.

Paulists don't believe in democracy, Lief. They're just a band of creepy cultists that will do anything and say anything to elect their idol.

Romney is hyped up on whatever Mormons hype themselves up on. Slow the fck down, Mittens.

Attacking the Olympics is a no-no Rick.

Lolz

This is getting good.

The Olympics received billions of dollars of federal funding. Technically, an earmark.

God I love Rick Santorum.

OH NO RICK BE QUIET :(

>Bill Clinton
>liberal Democrat

wat

Rick "pretty boy swag" Santorum is killing it tonight.

I'd put money on Newt not thinking that if the Olympics hadn't been in Georgia. EARMARK.

Is Ron Paul on even more speed than usual tonight?

Ron Paul: "The body I have been part of for decades is all messed up and full of people who don't know what they're doing!"

Ron Paul, take a breather!

Orange juice?

Rick throw in the "let Detroit go backrupt" line! Do it, do it now!

I think this crowd might be 30% mormon.

All things considered, that wasn't so bad of an answer.

Managed bankruptcy in the middle of a credit crisis would lead to liquidation, mittens.

Because, in Santorumland (or a certain part of Andy Dick), auto workers are lazy and don't deserve a bailout, but the Banks and Israel does.

Santorum started off well, but I think he's losing some momentum in the debate already.

#atlasforum
mibbit.com

let's get this bitch popping

Now he has.

Israel sells us military equipment nowadays, dude.

Yes, they do. We buy their equipment that we could (and should) build in order to fund them. T

Newt hearts foreign auto companies

Newt's been agreeing with Romney a lot.

Yea, I've started noticing that. It's almost like Gingrich thinks he can tag on to Romney during the debate to get ahead of Santorum.

Newt: "The American auto industry, like BMW and Honda, was doing fine!"

Yeah, but which spending?  Republicans as general rule find it easier to name specific tax cuts than budget cuts that are of the same dollar value.

Something tells me they ain't American

Let's kill Detroit to spite UAW! :D

Mitt Romney's gone 45 minutes without making a gaffe. We're due.

But my point is that we aren't 'bailing Israel out'. Israel is a developed, secular First World nation with close historic ties to the US, whose economy is doing way better and whose military is much more efficient. What point are you trying to make by saying 'we shouldn't bail Israel out?' If you're saying we shouldn't engage in commerce with them, then a) that's absurd and b) you just contradicted yourself. If you're saying we shouldn't support them diplomatically, then I'd like to remind you the alternative (Hamas) is much worse.

Israel is one of the biggest recipients of foreign aid.

Who decided this setup? It's really weird that they're all seated at tables...

Newt Gingrich has gone 45 minutes without calling the moderator an idiot

Well my stream died. :(

Servers too busy, what gives?

Republicans:
Every sperm is sacred,
Every sperm is great;
If a sperm is wasted,
God gets quite irate.

I'm late on this one.  Who's winning?

Yes, a real doctor understands the similarities between birth control pills and MAP's!!

'Planned Parenthood should get nothing.' -Paul

Amen.

Exactly. 9/11 happened because of our overkill regarding Israel. Im not saying they are bad; they are just controversial. If we over support them, then we end up alienating everyone else in the region.

Paul accuses Santorum of voting money for Planned Parenthood.

Romney. I think.

Paul really likes pissing Santorum off.

I think Santorum just cracked.

Santorum doesn't appear to have the crowd tonight.

Basically Romney and his lover Paul are ganging up on Santorum constantly. And then the Morman audience is booing him and applauding Mittens/Ron.

I like that Romney and Santorum are wearing matching ties.

Santorum needs to attack RomneyCare properly.

Haha, Romney got back at Santorum saying he endorsed him in 2008.

shut the f**** up and take your goddamn 30 seconds

Anyone else have trouble loading the forum over the last ten minutes?

Anyways, it was just like old times when Newt blamed the media and Obama about contraception right when the question came up.

Arlen Specter? Really?

Romney and Santorum are both making Nixon's 1960 debate performances look excellent.

Santorum doing work on RomneyCare?

Comparing Mitt Romney to Michael Dukakis! Best attack of the night

BOOM, Rick plays the Dukakis card

Santorum just destroyed Romney's half-assed Specter attack.

That clap looked sarcastic from Romney, although it wasn't. That didn't look good on TV, Mitt......

Santorum: Excuses. Excuses. Excuses. Excuses.

Santorum is being way too defensive of Washington politics.

Really hoping Mitt Romney's playing to the crowd or else he doesn't understand how Congress works.

If all of America watched this debate, Obama would be up 25 points on both of these guys tomorrow.

Rick: 1
Mitt: 0

Rick really beat Mitt there.

DEY TUK ER JERBS

This might as well be called the Republican Debate: "Greatest Hits". It's been a nice trip down memory lane.

Paul talking about "the illegal". Racist.

Hey, Perry.

You know who also endorsed Specter? RONALD REAGAN.

9/11 happened because of the Gulf War; because we decided to save our ally Kuwait, during which time we put troops in Saudi Arabia, leading Islamic extremists to believe we were about to occupy the Two Holy Cities, a belief which didn't let up because we maintained force in the Persian Gulf (where our energy comes from). Israel had very little to do with it, except that it bombed Saddam's nuclear program in '81, so that Iraq did not nuclear weapons in '91.

I just want to note, on another topic, that the entire conversation about modern society disgusted me. I think our society of sexuality and contraception is a good thing, and would fight to defend it.

Rick's in the audience! :D

So much is going on in this debate - Rick Perry was even brought up. Wow.

I miss you, Rick.

RICK PERRY CAMEO!

Newt has been on the peripheral for so much of this debate. It's been Paul vs. Rick and Rick vs. Mitt all night

Hey? Is that the gay cop?

Rick who?

Newt is back to pandering to voters in states about to have contests - in this case, Arizona.

Why don't they let Perry and Arpaio speak, that would make the debate  so much better.

As result of this Democratic federal government program, Arizona is doing what the Democrats in Washington refuse to do!

Where's Paul Babeu?

HAHAHAHA: http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2012/02/22/rick-santorum-portrait-made-from-gay-porn/

Gross dude.

EW, what was that Jan Brewer commercial?

Agreed. Was it an ad for the state of Arizona? I'm confused...

That gays and their allies have chosen to fight what they see as hate with hate of their own by dialing the disturbingness and sexually explicit level up 100-fold?

Romney: Flipper.

None of them said "conservative" or "electable".

The link showed up on my facebook feed, and thought it was funny due to the irony.

Newt: "Cheerful."

What?

I cant tell what was Romney's answer...does he support women in combat or not?

So all gays are sexually explicit and make porn to fight hate??

I obviously never said that.

Not 5 minutes later he says that a nuclear weapon could go off in one of our cities, and our children are more in danger than at any time in our history.

Gingrich: Be afraid, be very afraid.

Paul talks sense of course.

Reread your first sentence.

I don't ever see where I said "all gays" do anything.

Rick didn't answer the question about roles in combat...

So who is gonna be the winner tonight?

So if someone said "Men are lazy," you'd interpret that as meaning, "Some men are lazy."?

"Gays and their allies". Your sentence implies all gays make porn to fight intolerance.

Remember, everybody: it's ok when Libertarian Ron Paul brings up Christian beliefs. Rick Santorum? FASCIST!

Mitt just owned the segment on Iran

Ron Paul does not impose his beliefs on everyone else.

lol

Paul is about to showcase his insanity again when it comes to his time to talk about Iran. Good luck, Paul - you're going to need it.

If you say so. That's not how I see it. If I meant all gays, I would have said so, but I rarely make such totalizing comments.

Also, I never said they made gay porn. Dan Savage clearly did something hateful and sexually explicit that wasn't gay porn.

Because invading a country over another false nuclear program is "insane".

So far I cant see this debate changing anyone's mind.

I don't think it's OK when either of them does it :)

Ron Paul's foreign policy stance is insane and is the number one issue (amongst many others) why he would NEVER be the GOP nominee. Never.

Well, Rick Santorum was the one who brought pedophilia and bestiality into the conversation.

He stuck to his guns though - he's got balls.

HOW is it insane? Stop repeating talking points and tell me what is "insane" about his position.

How is it insane? Our energy comes from the Persian Gulf, and we need to maintain a level of control (or of our allies' control) there. That was the real reason we went to war in Iraq, and why I support a war in Iran. And why I supported the war in Iraq.

It's insane that he does not want to maintain American control of the Persian Gulf.

I don't think you got the point of my main post on this...

With that mentality, bombing going to war in Afghanistan pre-9/11 would have been bad. But hey, it would have saved 3,000 lives. Think about it, and think about the analogy at stake.

Mommy, who is this insane old man yelling on the TV?

That insane Ron Paul saying we need intelligence, declarations, and preparations to go to war.  

I'm still amazed that you people continue to care about these endless carnivals of tedium.

You don't wait for thousands to die before you act. You act before thousands can die.

Barack Obama: Loves Syrian Genocide.

My quote is wrong, I said it IS insane to invade Iran. I said it was not. Why should America control the Persian Gulf? We have no territory there. Its none of our business.

Yeah, so thousands die OVER THERE, not here.

Our oil comes from there and our economy depends on it. Therefore, it would be good not to lose it.

Or not?


No. The insane Ron Paul saying we need to pull out of existing wars. Those things he's saying are fine.

I disagree with one thing Ron Paul says =/ I disagree with all of Ron Paul's positions

Santorum:"...prolific proliferator..."

Nice word choice...

Yes, because oil is more important then human life. War for oil is disgusting.

Unfortunately, we need oil to keep our economy going. Without oil, we would enter a Depression and the lives that exist would be horribly miserable. War for oil is quite justified.

America should control the Persian Gulf? It's because of people like Vosem that the terrorists attack us. You don't need to control all the countries there to get oil. If anyone tries to close the straits of Hormuz that is one thing, but attacking a country for no reason. That is completely crazy talk. 

There is plenty of oil reserves in the US, and have less dependence on foreign oil.

Is Newt stupid enough to think his war against Iran is going to result in his promised $2.50 gas.

Or does he just think the voters are stupid?

We have MASSIVE amounts of Oil here in the US. Why cant we get it from Venezuala and Brazil? Why does it have to come from the Middle East.

It would be great if we did not depend on oil -- and we have the local reserves to do so -- but, unfortunately, politics says we are not drilling our own oil, and this is the sort of thing that takes years of development and cannot happen overnight.

In reply to sbane, of course you don't. But you do need to ensure that the countries that control our oil supply cannot hold us hostage, particularly dictatorships like Iran and what Iraq was before the '03 campaign.

The even better question is why do we have to BOMB people to get it?????

Oil prices are set as a global commodity. It doesnt matter where it comes from.

And domestic production is growing and imports are now below 50%, but the notion that we can drill our way to 0 imports is a fantasy. Now maybe if people want to talk about radically reducing consumption, maybe.  

Come to think of it, getting oil from the Middle East doesn't make sense when Brazil is closer and there's not much of terrorist activity there.

BALTIMORE!!! SHOUT OUT!

Of course, but we get it from the Middle East and you can't just switch overnight. It takes time. We should start shifting tomorrow, but it would still take quite some time.

Vosem, in the 50's in order to help American and British oil companies we got rid of democracy in Iran. We are the ones supporting dictatorships out there. It is their oil and they get to sell it to us at market prices, not due to force.

Rick is running into the John Kerry/Senator problem. He keeps talking about the pragmatism and reality of working in Washington - not realizing that primary voters just want purity not pragmatism.

If Iran did block the straight, oil would got to $500 a barrell overnight because it would be treated as a reduction in the overall supply. And the Iranian navy would cease to exist by the next day.

I know Dr. Paul doesn't actually pay much attention to what happens in DC. He's too busy whoring it up around the country. But you'd think Paul would know enough to know Santorum wasn't Senate Majority Whip.

Ron Paul probably doesn't realize education for anyone besides the wealthiest Americans was practically non-existent during the foundation of the country and anyone who thinks that's okay is insane.

/paul.

Guys, the series finale of "Republican Debates" is in its last scene.  Let's not spoil it.

It was nice for them to bring back Rick Perry in a cameo for this final episode, but I would have preferred Cain.

Yup, blocking the straits would mean war. They would be stopping oil coming from other countries from going to their destination. They would deserve to get bombed. Forcing regime change to put in our dictators so we can get Iranian oil is absolutely ridiculous. This is just frightening. The same sort of rhetoric leading to the Iraq war is being seen right now. Anybody out there who is not war hungry, I plead with you to not vote for any Republican other than Ron Paul.

I never said we supported democracy. Gaddafi supported us in Afghanistan (and stayed quiet about Iraq), I think we should've put a no-fly zone over Syria and left Gaddafi in power (where he would've stayed if not for NATO). I said we should maintain our presence in the Middle East to maintain our source of oil, and to ensure regimes hostile to us, in what unfortunately is a critical strategic area, cannot survive for very long -- and, if necessary, that means using military force, as we did in Iraq in '91 and '03.

To be fair, Santorums had 6 years of doing nothing. Oh wait, he has been lobbying.

Do you honestly believe that if the Department of Education is abolished, the states will not have a Education system? Of course Public Education will continue, at a state level.

Some music for the finale: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfUYuIVbFg0

And that leads to terrorism and hate against us. Not due to our wealth or whatever crap the Republicans/neocons throw at us. If you can at least admit that, then fine we can agree to disagree.

It's looking like a moot point by now - appears Obama's about to start a war prior to election day, the only question being Iran or Syria or both.

Sadly, I think you may be right..... but the Republican party is even more militaristic than Obama. Imagine that!

Of course that's true, I never disputed that.

Paul: "People thinking I can't win is a misconception."

That's because you've never won a statewide race ever!

Newt, what's the biggest misconception about you?

Or just list your campaign talking points. Same to Mitt.

OMG, Romney just went big time douche with that "you get to ask the questions you want..."

Romney epic fail by being a douche.

Answer the question, Mitt.

You do know that the majority of terrorists come from the middle class, right? Just saying.....

Romney gets booed. Yay.

QUESTION FORMAT INVALID. MITTBOT DOES NOT COMPUTE.  PROCEED WITH BIO PLATITUDES.

Wow. Mitt Romney is the most spoiled brat ever. Ever. Disgusting.

Once again. Check the ACTUAL results, and how Paul won most of Minnesota, and Colorados delegates.

They're closing remarks. If the moderator can't see that then he has failed with a very stupid last question. Look how most of the candidates did it for closing remarks and didn't answer the question. Why? Because it made sense to do so in concluding the last GOP debate.

Citation please.

Economic class has little to nothing to do with the reasons terrorists attack the United States.

Grading the debate


everyone gets a B-

everyone plays to their supporters but probably gained no one.

a big nothingburger

Yes, because they are pissed off that we think we get to control them....I never said people become terrorists because they are poor.

You can do it much, much more tactfully than Romney did.

Very first couple off CNN analysts calls it a win for both Mitt and Newt, and a strikeout for Rick.

A strikeout for Rick is good news for Mitt. :)

I can think of hundreds of things that I don't like about society. Should I kill those people and expect them to change their ways? Please.

Rick should request debating with his family behind him.  He turns into nicey mcnice nice.

I'm not saying the terrorists are doing the best thing to advance their cause. It's a problem with the desert culture....just look at Palestine. Obviously they are in the right, but then a bus blows up in Israel and the whole world thinks there's two sides to the story. They need a Gandhi, MLK or a Mandela, but their culture won't allow it.

The reason why we do is because you never know when there's going to be a twenty-point swing because of one.

Because obviously there's not two sides, and every West Bank settler is a mindless robotic Palestinian-killing monster. Who eats Palestinian babies for breakfast. With ketchup.

Speaking of which, CNN has unanimously called Mitt Romney the winner. Let's see what the polls will do now.....

Well TBF Mandela wasn't nonviolent either; he just got way better press coverage than the Palestinians have.

Logging out for the night, will gladly continue confrontation over Israel with ChairmanSanchez and sbane tomorrow morning.

My name is Juan, I came for work and they wouldn't let me stay.

Just to interject briefly into this debate: the United States doesn't get its oil from the Middle East.

ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

About 59% of imports come from the Americas, 22% from the Middle East, 17% from Africa.

And yes, global prices matter. But can we please not say that America depends on Middle Eastern oil, when it doesn't, really?

That was my impression also of Romney. I suppose he just forgot that most do not believe he's a conservative, a missed opportunity to clear up that misunderstanding.  Overall I enjoyed the conversation and of course President Gingrich did just find.. aah  speaker Gingrich I mean - looking forward to that $2 gas.

It's not a misunderstanding.

I don't know what that has to do with anything Paul said, but that's not accurate.  Most children in the Northern states attended grammar schools. Literacy rates there were probably higher  than they had been in any nation up to that time.

I have never really seen until tonight just how much of an arrogant, smug, self righteous jerk Santorum really is.

You ask the questions, I get to answer them how I like!

No, I'm gonna need a lot more than 30 seconds!

Any West Bank settler is a thief and that land should be given back to their rightful owner.

Once again, Frothy thoroughly disgusted me with his reactionary bullsh**t about morality, sexuality and so forth.

40% of kids born out of wedlock! Including me! TEH WORLD WILL ENDS!111

Unfair I know, but Rick came off to me as a well informed over-emotional teen-ager type, just like some posters on this forum. He's too "hot" for the cool medium, and has an immature quality. Part of the problem maybe is that he does not laugh at himself enough. Anyway, Rick did not do too well in the debate. When you start talking about how your Title 20 plan offset your support for Title 10, you know your off message.

Darn. Looks like he's finished with the Canadian/French/whatever else you are vote! Don't see a path to victory from here...

From what I read it was a Pyrrhic victory for Mittens who had a rather clumsy performance but was helped by his new lapdog, Ron Paul.
Is that description close to reality?

No, Paul really wasn't a Mittens tool in the debate. Mittens just got the better of Rick when they started dissing each other.

The West Bank settlers are the rightful owners. In the vast majority of cases, the land they're sitting on was, before the settling, vacant, government land, or bought fairly from Palestinians. Obviously, there are exceptions (Wikipedia says Ofra, Elon Moreh, and Beit El were exceptions). I think it's racist to call a population of hundreds of thousands of people 'thieves', and even if they weren't the rightful owners, demanding all West Bank settlers (Israel estimated 327,750 people in 2010) leave and give the land to the Palestinians would be like telling everybody in Tampa to leave so they can give the area back to the Seminoles.

Tangentially, I think the eviction of the Gaza settlers was illegal under international law, but that's a whole different matter.

I was talking to a friend last night about Rick, and we came to the conclusion that he seems like the know it all teacher's pet at school during these debates, the holier than thou type. Mitt comes off as just awkward. Ron Paul seemed like he was hyped up on something, but he was the same usual kooky guy.

Never tuned into a GOP debate yet ... Probably for fear I smashed the TV in ;)

Rick had a decent response on the earmarks and the Specter endorsement.  What he said about his NCLB vote was awful. You don't admit to selling out your principles for the sake of your party.

I disagree - what Santorum said about earmarks is true, but I doubt that it holds appeal to most Republican primary voters. And the discussion about Arlen Specter was one of Santorum's worst moments of the night, because just as he was tearing into Romney over healthcare, Romney goaded him off-topic.

the same exact reason I watch sports on tv.  well, there are slight differences.  spectator politics is less emotional for me but more systemic and intellectual.  baseball may be the exception to that.  this really is a beautiful, amazing spectator sport.  polling, candidates, meta-narratives, sequential primaries, fundraising, we can go on, all unite into one big tug-of-war.  and it ebbs and flows and goes on for months at a time. 

this years GOP race is pretty high on the fun chart.  I was baptized into following primaries by the 2004 Dem race, which was the biggest letdown since sliced bread.  the three since then have been amazing in contrast.

Not really an option as Europe was scared silly of a massive refugee influx from Libya.  If Libya hadn't been on the Mediterranean Sea, NATO would never have gotten involved.  That's why Bashir has been able to do largely as he pleases in Sudan.  No matter what he does, it won't cause massive numbers of refugees to reach Europe.

Naso?