Talk Elections

Newton Leroy Gingrich

There won't be one. Romney's won.

Then take this as a "who will provide the best token opposition?" poll.

Both Gingrich and Santorum at this point.

Gingrich.  Whack-a-Mole is back.

What on earth are you guys smoking?

Santorum.

Come on, guys. The Santorum thing is over. Are you really going to leave me in agreement with JJ alone?

Richard Santorum will finish 2nd in Super Tuesday. But if he's a distant second, Gingrichh will retake the position of anti-romney, but too late to have a possibility in the Convention.

In terms of delegates, he may finish third.

To be specific here, which Super Tuesday states, other than Georgia, do you expect Gingrich to get more votes than Santorum in?

Newt's talking point may be that after Tuesday, he has won more delegates so far than Rick, or they are close to even, and that in particular, on super Tuesday, Newt won more delegates than Rick. It won't take much of an uptick by Newt to make that claim, as the spreadsheet below illustrates. Right now based on the polls, and my guess in ND, and some other assumptions, Newt would be down by only about 35 delegates or so, and if he can keep Rick below 20% in Georgia, as the spreadsheet below assumes, may well even given the current status of the race, to make the claim that he won more delegates on Tuesday. So he has some reasonable chance of getting there.

Meanwhile Mittens will have an absolute majority of the delegates won so far, fattened by the fact that most of the un-pledged super delegates will go for him as well, which are not added to my totals.

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Ditto.
That should have been one of the choices.
Even if Santorum wins Ohio and Tennessee, Romney is the winner on Super Tuesday.
He will win the delegates in Ohio, and he will win Virginia. That's enough to claim victory and have a big enough argument for Santorum and Gingrich to drop out.

Obama

Rick Santorum.

Face it, Gingrich is too bitter and Santorum is too arrogant

to drop out.

Oklahoma and Tennessee are definite possibilities. Depends how quickly Santorum crashes.

Obama.

I think Santorum lost his chance to stop Romney, and I'm not confident that Newt will have another surge. It's hard to see Mitt losing the nomination now.

Obvious answer is both Santorum and Newt. Santorum will lose some support and Newt will probably gain some, leaving Romney to surge with both main opponents far below. It is likely that Romney wins all but 2 Super Tuesday states. Santorum takes Oklahoma and Gingrich takes Georgia. If that happens the race really is over.

Hello Jedi, been a long time.


You still supporting Newt or is the sign real rather than "ironic"?

Santorum.

I still don't really like Romney and prefer Gingrich but I sure as hell don't want Santorum as the nominee to have an epic fail come November so I'm supporting Romney since Gingrich won't win the nomination anymore.

Why would Santorum be any worse then Newt in a General Election?

Social Issues - Econimic Issues = epic fail and when he does talk about them it makes you want to hide, such as the new thread where he said gasoline prices caused the recession. Gingrich might still lose but at least he would focus on the economy.

And $2.50 gas as a matter of policy doesn't want to make you hide? :P

I paid $3.79 a gallon earlier in the week, so I'd prefer that to what we have here right now. :P

But he can't give you that without either a massive recession or somehow skipping the necessary couple of years to bring production on line. It is legitimate to criticize Obama on energy, he can't take credit for Bush oil production to to cover his own anti-energy philosophy, but at the same time, we can't make impossible promises like that.

Right, that's the moderate formula that worked so well with McCain, and Dole.

Romney is just more of the same. Obama is stronger than him pretty much everywhere - so he's not going to win the election.

Hey, disagree with me now, but you can quote this post when the election comes.

Well maybe you'll be right and I'll sadly be able to quote your post when the election comes.  But I'm reminded of how well the non-establishment Barry Goldwater did in 1964, handing LBJ a 68-32 Senate, a tow to 0ne House, and 44 of 50 states.

It looks like Rick and Newt will continue to share the honors for some time. :)

I don't really think one gives a damn about the other really, so they don't care much if it helps Mittens.  It doesn't matter much anymore anyway if one does drop out at this point.

Or a George McGovern in 1972.  Or, arguably, a Walter Mondale in 1984.