Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2012, 09:22:02 AM



Title: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2012, 09:22:02 AM
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

51-39

...

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 52
Mitt Romney, the Republican - 35

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats - 51
Mitt Romney and Bob McDonnell, the Republicans - 36

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 54
Rick Santorum, the Republican - 32

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats - 51
Rick Santorum and Bob McDonnell, the Republicans - 34

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 57
Newt Gingrich, the Republican - 31

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 53
Ron Paul, the Republican - 32

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/120304NBCMaristVirginiaMarch2012.pdf


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2012, 09:30:58 AM
Crosstabs:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/34-virginia


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Rowan on March 04, 2012, 09:46:47 AM
Right.


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2012, 09:56:13 AM

Yeah, the numbers look a bit weird, but remember that Marist had one of the best sets of polls in 2008:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?type=src&source_id=8


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: pbrower2a on March 04, 2012, 10:06:52 AM
In view of Ohio, in a State (Virginia) that has gone for the Democratic nominee for President only twice in the last sixty years...

Ohio and Virginia are different enough that the two Marist polls suggest a national trend to a GOP disaster in November.


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: marvelrobbins on March 04, 2012, 11:02:06 AM
This shows the economy Is recovering and the Republicans are turning Into Disaster.Republicans
talking about social Issues and not economy Is word they know the economy Is Improving.

The strange thing In poll In Virginia Is Obama and Mcdonnell both have 51 percent approvol.
And Mcdonnell does nothing to help Romney as VP candiate.


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Niemeyerite on March 04, 2012, 12:23:27 PM
Outlier, more than probably. However, polls like this (even if they are too Obama-friendly) indicate that the President will win in November a la 2008.


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 04, 2012, 12:58:38 PM
This shows the economy Is recovering and the Republicans are turning Into Disaster.

It's impossible to turn into disaster when they already are one.


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: marvelrobbins on March 04, 2012, 01:06:15 PM
well I have always know they are disaster but now more of the public knows that


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Yank2133 on March 04, 2012, 01:16:14 PM
Too Obama friendly, but he is likely up a few points over Romney at this point.


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 04, 2012, 02:23:53 PM
Remind me again why NBC considers robo-polls unreliable.


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: memphis on March 04, 2012, 02:46:06 PM
Lolwut?


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on March 04, 2012, 02:48:04 PM
Probably junk, but I don't see VA going Republican this year.


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 04, 2012, 02:50:22 PM
What, did they only poll Richmond?

If Virginia is close in November, how does Moneybags Mitt fare in Fairfax? How would Obama, on the flipside, do in SW VA (the Gore/Kerry-->McCain areas)


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: tpfkaw on March 04, 2012, 02:55:07 PM
It has Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents as 50% of the sample...


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on March 04, 2012, 03:01:08 PM
Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5120120302008


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: pbrower2a on March 04, 2012, 03:06:52 PM
What, did they only poll Richmond?

If Virginia is close in November, how does Moneybags Mitt fare in Fairfax? How would Obama, on the flipside, do in SW VA (the Gore/Kerry-->McCain areas)

Watch for polls of states demographically similar southwestern Virginia -- Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and of course West Virginia. We have seen few credible polls from those states in recent months.  Should President Obama be picking up the sorts of voters who went for Bill Clinton in the 1990s but not for him while he holds onto the suburban voters that Republicans used to think his, then he is on the way to at least an Eisenhower-scale landslide.

The gains in Ohio could be among voters of that type -- the Reagan-Clinton Democrats. Who knows?  


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: marvelrobbins on March 04, 2012, 04:41:48 PM
I am still doudtful Obama can pick up any Mccain states besides Arizona and Missouri.Indiana
despite what some thought I think may not be out of reach for Obama again.Romney Is shapping up to be Dole 2 or The Republican Dukakis.If Obama has a good night on Election Day I could
Imagne a 55 to 45 In Popular vote.There was one poll that Obama lossing Tennessee by 7 to Romney and not the double digets he did to Mccain.Under right sceniro I could see him Competive
In Georgia and Montana.He got 47 percent of the vote last time In both states.That Is best
showing for a Democrat since Bill Clinton In 1992.

Marist had good track record In 2008,and Mcdonnell has a 51 percent approl In this poll.The same
as Obama.This means you can't dismiss It as a Democratic leaning poll.


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Ben Romney on March 04, 2012, 06:16:00 PM
 Here are the Party ID crosstabs:

State Dem Rep

Ohio 50% 37%

VA 50% 35%

Now if this is not agenda polling,then I do not know what that is!!!


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on March 04, 2012, 06:30:36 PM
Here are the Party ID crosstabs:

State Dem Rep

Ohio 50% 37%

VA 50% 35%

Now if this is not agenda polling,then I do not know what that is!!!

You needed to post in both threads?

Anyway, I believe Obama is probably just ahead in VA and OH right now, neither of these states will be double-digit blowouts in November. The party IDs in the crosstabs are laughable.


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Kevin on March 04, 2012, 06:42:02 PM
This results can't be correct. Both Ras and PPP had number's out like a week ago showing the Pres only barely leading or tieing the Pubbies. It also doesn't mesh with what I've seen on the ground here for the past year or so.


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Kevin on March 04, 2012, 06:42:45 PM
What, did they only poll Richmond?

If Virginia is close in November, how does Moneybags Mitt fare in Fairfax? How would Obama, on the flipside, do in SW VA (the Gore/Kerry-->McCain areas)

Watch for polls of states demographically similar southwestern Virginia -- Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and of course West Virginia. We have seen few credible polls from those states in recent months.  Should President Obama be picking up the sorts of voters who went for Bill Clinton in the 1990s but not for him while he holds onto the suburban voters that Republicans used to think his, then he is on the way to at least an Eisenhower-scale landslide.

The gains in Ohio could be among voters of that type -- the Reagan-Clinton Democrats. Who knows?  

Lol!


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Franzl on March 04, 2012, 06:44:33 PM
This results can't be correct. Both Ras and PPP had number's out like a week ago showing the Pres only barely leading or tieing the Pubbies. It also doesn't mesh with what I've seen on the ground here for the past year or so.

I seem to remember you as the person who was talking about "Democratic hacks" not believing polls that were unfavorable to their interests. Amusing.


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: pbrower2a on March 05, 2012, 01:14:11 AM
What, did they only poll Richmond?

If Virginia is close in November, how does Moneybags Mitt fare in Fairfax? How would Obama, on the flipside, do in SW VA (the Gore/Kerry-->McCain areas)

Watch for polls of states demographically similar southwestern Virginia -- Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and of course West Virginia. We have seen few credible polls from those states in recent months.  Should President Obama be picking up the sorts of voters who went for Bill Clinton in the 1990s but not for him while he holds onto the suburban voters that Republicans used to think his, then he is on the way to at least an Eisenhower-scale landslide.

The gains in Ohio could be among voters of that type -- the Reagan-Clinton Democrats. Who knows?  

Lol!

That is an easily testable hypothesis.


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on March 05, 2012, 01:17:50 AM
Kevin, what part of Virginia do you live in?


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: morgieb on March 05, 2012, 06:42:22 AM
Sounds crap.

Still, it shows the sh**t that the Republicans are in.


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: opebo on March 05, 2012, 06:56:15 AM
Here are the Party ID crosstabs:

State Dem Rep

Ohio 50% 37%

VA 50% 35%

Now if this is not agenda polling,then I do not know what that is!!!

So what would that translate to if adjusted for reality?  Maybe Obama ahead by 2-3 points in Virginia and even in Ohio?


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Tender Branson on March 05, 2012, 07:23:03 AM
So what would that translate to if adjusted for reality?  Maybe Obama ahead by 2-3 points in Virginia and even in Ohio?

Depends what we define as "reality".

If we use the Marist crosstabs and apply them to the 2008 Exit Polls in OH and VA, the results are:

OH (39%D, 31%R, 30%I): 49% Obama, 40% Romney

VA (39%D, 33%R, 28%I): 50% Obama, 40% Romney

But because the crosstabs show that Obama gets a higher Democratic share than Romney gets among his own party and Obama also leads among Independents, the sample could even be R+2 and Obama would still lead ...


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: pbrower2a on March 05, 2012, 09:36:59 AM
So what would that translate to if adjusted for reality?  Maybe Obama ahead by 2-3 points in Virginia and even in Ohio?

Depends what we define as "reality".

If we use the Marist crosstabs and apply them to the 2008 Exit Polls in OH and VA, the results are:

OH (39%D, 31%R, 30%I): 49% Obama, 40% Romney

VA (39%D, 33%R, 28%I): 50% Obama, 40% Romney

But because the crosstabs show that Obama gets a higher Democratic share than Romney gets among his own party and Obama also leads among Independents, the sample could even be R+2 and Obama would still lead ...

It is the moderates, and not the bases, who decide who win most elections.  This is especially true with Presidential elections. Alf Landon got 36% of the popular vote in 1936; McGovern got 37% of the popular vote in 1972. In an essentially binary election (unless something freakish like a sudden scandal that discredits someone) the incumbent is going to win a a floor of roughly 40% of the vote (Hoover 1932, Carter 1980) and the challenger is going to have a floor of about 36% of the vote.

The marked partisans have decided between 72% and 76% of the vote before a vote is cast. The other 24% to 28% of the electorate decide it all.

If President Obama were the disaster as partisan hacks on the Right see him, then he would now be losing binary matchups in a bunch of states that he won in 2008.

If he is legitimately up by double-digit margins in Ohio and Virginia, states close to the national average in their voting habits, then President Obama is headed to a landslide re-election. Whether such reflects the effectiveness of the President or the ineptitude of his likely challengers isn't so clear. It is now too late for anyone to enter the race to be the Republican nominee for President and win. If the Republicans have a disordered convention in which a nominee is selected in some proverbial smoke-filled room, then that nominee will have a tough time getting his message across.

Polls are stills in a movie, and not the conclusion. But we already know President Obama very well; we know what he believes; we know how he campaigns; we know from 2008 what sort of campaign apparatus a Republican nominee faces.     


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on March 07, 2012, 02:51:57 PM
Marist also had Obama losing  NH a while back and it was fine then.


Title: Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win
Post by: pbrower2a on March 08, 2012, 08:27:48 AM
Marist also had Obama losing  NH a while back and it was fine then.

Technically -- President Obama was winning New Hampshire against everyone but Romney, often by double-digit margins... when the Republicans were campaigning all the time, smearing the President at every turn. Then they left after the primary, and New Hampshire went back to normal. There has been only one poll of New Hampshire since the primary, and in contrast to the frequent polls before the primary it shows Romney losing. It makes sense in view of the disappearance of the barrage of calumnies against the President and the results of the 2008 election.