Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: Tender Branson on March 05, 2012, 09:48:56 AM



Title: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 05, 2012, 09:48:56 AM
Alaska:

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http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/ak

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/AK_President_0306.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Exit Poll: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/ak

Georgia:

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http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/ga

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/GA_President_0306.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Exit Poll: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/ga

Idaho:

()

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/id

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/ID_President_0306.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Exit Poll: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/id

Massachusetts:

()

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/ma

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/MA_Page_0306.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Exit Poll: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/ma

North Dakota:

()

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/nd

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/ND_President_0306.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Exit Poll: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/nd

Ohio:

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http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/oh

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/OH_President_0306.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Exit Poll: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/oh

Oklahoma:

()

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/ok

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/OK_Page_0306.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Exit Poll: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/ok

Tennessee:

()

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/tn

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/TN_Page_0306.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Exit Poll: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/tn

Vermont:

()

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/vt

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/VT_President_0306.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Exit Poll: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/vt

Virginia:

()

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/va

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/VA_President_0306.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Exit Poll: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/va


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 05, 2012, 09:55:56 AM
If you want AP county results, just substitute "by state" with "by county" in each URL.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 05, 2012, 11:37:07 AM
Political Junkie Material (for printing out):

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/NBC%20News_2012%20Super%20Tuesday%20Guide_FINAL.pdf


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 05, 2012, 02:52:07 PM
Political Junkie Material (for printing out):

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/NBC%20News_2012%20Super%20Tuesday%20Guide_FINAL.pdf

I don't think their poll closing time is correct on North Dakota.  If I have time, I'll post more detailed poll closing time information tonight, including specifics on the caucus states.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 05, 2012, 08:41:55 PM
Woohoo!! I'll be off work at 5:00 tomorrow to watch the results, so I should be home by 5:30!!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 05, 2012, 09:12:07 PM
Mitt Romney has 100% of the vote in Oklahoma so far.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 05, 2012, 09:24:13 PM
Mitt Romney has 100% of the vote in Oklahoma so far.

???


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 05, 2012, 10:46:49 PM

I think he's talking about my vote.  However, he is wrong on two front.  1) I haven't voted yet and 2) Oklahoma has had early voting since last Friday.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Rules for me, but not for thee on March 06, 2012, 01:30:55 AM
I wouldn't be too surprised to see Paul get 2nd in Tennessee.  Most I know here, including my manager at work, support or at least like Ron Paul.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 01:31:17 AM
Can we get a list of the poll closing/caucus times for this evening so we can kind of know in what order the states will close?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 01:36:19 AM
Political Junkie Material (for printing out):

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/NBC%20News_2012%20Super%20Tuesday%20Guide_FINAL.pdf

I don't think their poll closing time is correct on North Dakota.  If I have time, I'll post more detailed poll closing time information tonight, including specifics on the caucus states.


Indeed:

The caucus in ND ends at 8pm local time, which is 9pm Eastern.

The website says that results are starting to come in at 9.30pm Eastern.

http://www.northdakotagop.org/caucus


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 01:38:25 AM
Can we get a list of the poll closing/caucus times for this evening so we can kind of know in what order the states will close?

Click on that MSNBC guide I have posted above. It has all poll closings inside.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 01:52:07 AM
I wouldn't be too surprised to see Paul get 2nd in Tennessee.  Most I know here, including my manager at work, support or at least like Ron Paul.

He is a lock for a distant fourth place there.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 03:06:48 AM
I wouldn't be too surprised to see Paul get 2nd in Tennessee.  Most I know here, including my manager at work, support or at least like Ron Paul.
In fairness that would take 2 spectacular collapses.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Republic on March 06, 2012, 03:08:43 AM
I wouldn't be too surprised to see Paul get 2nd in Tennessee.  Most I know here, including my manager at work, support or at least like Ron Paul.

He couldn't even break 6% last time.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 06, 2012, 03:37:57 AM
Current national weather map:

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/nationalforecast/index.html

()

Quote

South

-   Tuesday will be dry with high pressure anchored over the Southeast.
-   Gusty winds will target Oklahoma, Texas, northern Arkansas and southern Florida.
-   Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible across Oklahoma.
-   Sunny skies will extend from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast.
-   Lows will range from the frosty 20s and 30s in the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee to the 40s and 50s in the southern Plains and some 60s at the southern tips of Texas and Florida.
-   With temperatures below average near the coastal Southeast but above average in the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains, highs will range from the 50s in North Carolina to the 70s in Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana and central and southern Florida.

Midwest

-   Tuesday will be dry region wide, except for a few rain and snow showers near the Canadian border.
-    Gusty southerly winds will sweep from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes while, behind a cold front, gusty winds will turn west and northwest across the western Dakotas.
-   Highs will range from the 30s and 40s near the Canadian border to the 70s across the central Plains.

West

-   Rain showers and snow will accompany a cold front from parts of California to Montana on Tuesday.
-   Four to twelve inches of snow will fall across higher elevations from the Sierra to the northern Rockies.

So, rain/snow in Idaho?  Well, doesn't really matter one way or the other, as Romney's going to win it regardless.  Show also in Alaska, but looks like nice weather in the rest of the Super Tuesday states.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 06, 2012, 03:58:35 AM
Here are the details I can find on the times for the caucus states:

North Dakota

The state is split between Central and Mountain time.  Instructions here:

http://www.northdakotagop.org/caucus/

indicate that people can show up at their caucus between 5:30 and 8pm local time, with 8pm corresponding to either 9pm or 10pm ET, depending on which time zone.  It says they'll post live results starting at 8:30pm Central / 9:30pm Eastern.

Idaho

Caucus locations are listed here:

http://www.idaho-republican-caucus.com/idaho-counties.html

Every county starts their caucuses at 7pm local time, but part of the state is in Mountain time, and part is in Pacific time, so that corresponds to either 9pm or 10pm ET, depending on which time zone.

This website:

http://idgop.org/caucus-results/

says "Caucus results will be posted here as early as 8:30 pm Mountain Time", which means 10:30pm Eastern.

Alaska

This article:

http://www.alaskapublic.org/2012/02/28/alaska-republican-caucuses-approaching/

says the caucuses take place between 4pm and 8pm Alaska standard time, which translates to between 8pm and 12am Eastern.

Meanwhile all the polls in the primary states will be closing at 8pm Eastern at the latest.  And caucuses tend to count their votes much slower than primaries.  So it looks like there could be a big gap in the evening between the primary results and the caucus results.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 06, 2012, 04:03:43 AM
And here are poll closing times for the primary states, translated into Eastern time:

7pm: GA, VT, VA
7:30pm: OH
8pm: MA, OK, TN

At least, I think those are all correct.  Let me know if you spot a mistake.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on March 06, 2012, 08:33:20 AM
Sadly, I won't be with you all tonight, as I'll be in Ontario on vacation through Thursday, with no phone and no Internet.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on March 06, 2012, 08:57:42 AM
Ron Paul may have a shot at Alaska and may have a shot at second place in North Dakota, Idaho and Vermont. Not too happy about it, but whatever.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on March 06, 2012, 09:30:11 AM
Ron Paul may have a shot at Alaska and may have a shot at second place in North Dakota, Idaho and Vermont. Not too happy about it, but whatever.
He may also be able to pull off a second place in Virginia. ::)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on March 06, 2012, 09:31:23 AM
Ron Paul may have a shot at Alaska and may have a shot at second place in North Dakota, Idaho and Vermont. Not too happy about it, but whatever.
He may also be able to pull off a second place in Virginia. ::)

I seriously question that.  I just don't see how he can pull that one off.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Erc on March 06, 2012, 09:48:46 AM
Not exactly bustling, but I was the 42nd to vote in my precinct this morning---but as it's extremely Democratic, I may have been one of the first Republicans to cast a ballot.  I'll be quite interested to see the overall Republican turnout here when the results come in.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 12:24:59 PM
ND, ID and AK will not have Exit Polls after all, only the primary states:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/behind-the-numbers/post/super-tuesday-exit-poll-cheat-sheet/2012/03/06/gIQA3sBfuR_blog.html


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on March 06, 2012, 12:30:24 PM
ND, ID and AK will not have Exit Polls after all, only the primary states:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/behind-the-numbers/post/super-tuesday-exit-poll-cheat-sheet/2012/03/06/gIQA3sBfuR_blog.html

Caucuses usually don't have exit polls, only entrance polls. Are they not doing those ethics?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 12:35:54 PM
Live feeds for CNN, MSNBC, Faux News, etc.

http://www.epctv.com/channels/CNN-Online-Watch-4758.htm


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 12:53:25 PM
I'm off, taking a nap for 6 hours.

It's gonna be a long night again for us Europeans, from 1am here to 5 or 6am in the morning ... ;)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 06, 2012, 03:01:54 PM
I won't be online at the time, but remember that the exit polling organization shares their data with the networks at 5pm Eastern.  (Any supposed exit poll leaks before that are certainly fake.)  At about 5:20 or 5:25pm Eastern or so, we'll probably start to get AP stories about early exit data, with useless stuff like what % of voters thought the economy was the top issue or something.  Then the TV networks start talking about the exits as well.  But none of the topline numbers will be out until voting ends in a given state.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on March 06, 2012, 03:13:10 PM
Ron Paul may have a shot at Alaska and may have a shot at second place in North Dakota, Idaho and Vermont. Not too happy about it, but whatever.

He may also be able to pull off a second place in Virginia. ::)

Hahahahaha


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 05:11:01 PM
Any turnout rumors/hearsay yet?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 05:14:55 PM
This thread is jumpin'...

*crickets*


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reds4 on March 06, 2012, 05:15:34 PM
This is my first time voting in this particular county and precinct in Ohio, but I was number 135 at 4:30 pm. I live in a rural county in Ohio. There were a few people coming to vote at that time... my guess is turnout will be fairly low, not ridiculously low, but certainly not high.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 05:21:58 PM
This is my first time voting in this particular county and precinct in Ohio, but I was number 135 at 4:30 pm. I live in a rural county in Ohio. There were a few people coming to vote at that time... my guess is turnout will be fairly low, not ridiculously low, but certainly not high.

Good news for Romney, the candidate of low turnout.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on March 06, 2012, 05:24:40 PM
This is my first time voting in this particular county and precinct in Ohio, but I was number 135 at 4:30 pm. I live in a rural county in Ohio. There were a few people coming to vote at that time... my guess is turnout will be fairly low, not ridiculously low, but certainly not high.

Good news for Romney, the candidate of low turnout.

It might also help Santorum, if all the Romney voters decided the nomination was wrapped up and decided to stay home, like they did in CO/MN/MO. Those were also low turnout contests.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: tpfkaw on March 06, 2012, 05:26:00 PM
I was the only person voting in my precinct when I went, although then again I voted at 4:30 while most people are at work.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Yelnoc on March 06, 2012, 05:26:32 PM
Get yo little selves in heeya;

#atlasforum @ mibbit.com


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 05:33:26 PM
Paul Begala just called Mitt Romney "gorgeous".


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 05:41:47 PM
White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on March 06, 2012, 05:44:14 PM
White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08

That's good for Santorum. However, I have heard these early exit polls also have Santorum and Romney tied among self-identified conservatives. If that's true, Romney's going to win Ohio by a lot.

However, IIRC from some of the other exit polls, Santorum's voters tend to arrive late, so maybe that will help.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 05:44:22 PM
White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08

Good news for Rick and Newt (hopefully).


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 05:45:32 PM
White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08

That's good for Santorum. However, I have heard these early exit polls also have Santorum and Romney tied among self-identified conservatives. If that's true, Romney's going to win Ohio by a lot.

However, IIRC from some of the other exit polls, Santorum's voters tend to arrive late, so maybe that will help.

Where'd you hear that?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on March 06, 2012, 05:49:00 PM
White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08

That's good for Santorum. However, I have heard these early exit polls also have Santorum and Romney tied among self-identified conservatives. If that's true, Romney's going to win Ohio by a lot.

However, IIRC from some of the other exit polls, Santorum's voters tend to arrive late, so maybe that will help.

Where'd you hear that?

Twitter, so take those numbers with a large grain of salt.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ajb on March 06, 2012, 05:52:25 PM
White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08

That's good for Santorum. However, I have heard these early exit polls also have Santorum and Romney tied among self-identified conservatives. If that's true, Romney's going to win Ohio by a lot.

However, IIRC from some of the other exit polls, Santorum's voters tend to arrive late, so maybe that will help.

Where'd you hear that?

Twitter, so take those numbers with a large grain of salt.

Everything about the first wave of exit polls is to be taken with a grain of salt. Not everyone's voted yet, so the exit poll is still going on, and anyway all the demographics will eventually be re-weighted to match the results.
I remember being burned by those first-wave exit polls in 2004!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 05:55:29 PM
Hmm, this can't be good news for the Santorum-camp:

Quote
Romney and Santorum tied for Ohio conservatives: exit poll
March 6, 2012, 5:52 PM

It’s a Romney-Santorum tossup so far for Ohio conservatives’ hearts and minds.

In a CNN exit poll, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum split self-described conservative voters in Ohio right down the middle at 39%-39%. Polls are open until 7:30 p.m. Eastern in Ohio, the state Romney and Santorum have battled fiercest over on this Super Tuesday.

If those numbers hold, it’ll be a big change from last week’s contest in Michigan, where “very conservative” voters favored Santorum by 50% to Romney’s 36%. Romney led Santorum 50%-32% in Michigan among those who said they were “somewhat” conservative.

Ohio is one of frontrunner Romney’s main chances to seal the deal with conservatives on Tuesday night – the other is Tennessee, where Santorum has held a slight lead.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2012/03/06/romney-and-santorum-tied-for-ohio-conservatives-exit-poll


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on March 06, 2012, 05:56:58 PM
White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08

That's good for Santorum. However, I have heard these early exit polls also have Santorum and Romney tied among self-identified conservatives. If that's true, Romney's going to win Ohio by a lot.

However, IIRC from some of the other exit polls, Santorum's voters tend to arrive late, so maybe that will help.

Where'd you hear that?

Twitter, so take those numbers with a large grain of salt.

Everything about the first wave of exit polls is to be taken with a grain of salt. Not everyone's voted yet, so the exit poll is still going on, and anyway all the demographics will eventually be re-weighted to match the results.
I remember being burned by those first-wave exit polls in 2004!

Yep. I haven't taken early exit polls too seriously ever since President Kerry was elected in a landslide.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 05:58:10 PM
Wow, Ohio might be a slaughter. Hopefully Newt can do well in the south.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 06:00:17 PM
Quote
47 percent of Ohio voters said Romney's positions on the issues were "right," 37% said they were not conservative enough and 7% said they were too conservative.

46 percent of Ohio voters said Santorum's positions on the issues were "right," 24% said they were too conservative and 17% said they were not conservative enough.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/06/live-blog-of-super-tuesday-plus-more/?hpt=hp_t1



Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 06:01:53 PM
Quote
Super Tuesday Exit Polls: Ohio Voters Divided Over Most Electable Versus Most Empathetic Candidate

OHIO - A diverse mix of voters in Ohio helped shape today’s headline Super Tuesday contest, with preliminary exit poll results highlighting tensions in the Republican race as Mitt Romney leaned on his standing as the most electable candidate while Rick Santorum challenged him with appeals to conservatives and working-class concerns.

A majority of Ohio voters in preliminary exit poll results name Romney as the candidate best able to defeat Barack Obama in November – about usual for other states this year, and more than double the number who choose Santorum. But when asked ”who best understands the problems of average Americans” Romney’s tally dives to 23 percent while Santorum surges to 32 percent.

Electability has been strong for Romney in previous contests; today four in 10 Ohio voters call it the single most important candidate attribute in their vote, ahead of the numbers looking chiefly for someone with strong moral character (about one in five), a true conservative (one in six) or chiefly focused on experience (again, one in six).

Politically, seven in 10 voters in Ohio are Republicans, down from their peak in 2008 but more than last week’s Michigan primary; with a quarter independents. (Democrats are accounting for a very small share in this open primary, as is typical for Ohio.) Romney generally has done better with mainline Republicans than with non-Republicans this year.

While those results are positive for Romney, he also faces challenges in the Ohio electorate. Ohio voters weren’t necessarily quick to decide: Nearly three in 10 made up their minds within the last few days; a group to watch, since, in Michigan last week, late deciders favored Santorum. While fewer than half of Ohio voters are evangelicals, that is more than in Michigan last week, and generally they’ve been a solid group for opponents of Romney. Fewer than half of Ohio voters today are college graduates, fewer than in Michigan; elsewhere non-graduates have been a weaker group for Romney.

As has been the case in every contest with exit polls so far this cycle, the top issue was the economy. More than half of the voters in Ohio pick it as the most important issue in their vote, overwhelming all others; next, is the federal budget deficit, cited by three in 10. Far fewer voters place abortion highest, one in 10; these voters have tended to be a solid group for Santorum.

But Santorum may seek the advantage of some voters’ economic discontent: Seven in 10 voters in Ohio describe themselves as “very worried” about the economy, and in a separate question, nearly a third pick Santorum as the candidate who “best understands the problems of average Americans” – more than say so about any other candidate. About a quarter pick Romney on this basic measure of empathy.

Other states of interest are characterized by sharply different voter profiles and attitudes:

TENNESSEE – A conservative electorate characterizes turnout in Tennessee today: seven in 10 voters are evangelicals, more than in any other primary this year; three-quarters say it matters that a candidate shares their religion beliefs, much higher than in earlier contests where this was asked; and four in 10 describe themselves as “very” conservative, again, more than usual this year. More than two-thirds of voters in the Tennessee primary are Republicans, down from about three-quarters in 2008. While these figures may buoy Santorum’s prospects, he does face hurdles in Tennessee. Preliminary exit poll results indicate that seniors, typically a good group for Romney, are turning out in larger than customary numbers for the state. Four in 10 voters name Romney as the most likely candidate to defeat Obama in November – lower than usual this cycle, but still about double the number who say so about either Santorum or Gingrich. And, as in Ohio, four in 10 voters pick electability as the most important candidate quality, nearly twice the number looking mainly for either a true conservative or for experience.

OKLAHOMA – Strong turnout among core conservative groups dominates the Oklahoma primary today. Evangelicals account for three-quarters of voters in these preliminary results – about as many as in 2008, but much higher than other states this cycle, save Tennessee. Nearly half of voters describe themselves as “very” conservative, more than typical this year, and more than in Oklahoma in 2008. And with more than four in 10 voters making under $50,000, the Oklahoma electorate is lower-income than most so far this year. Still, while again the economy dominates – about half of voters name the economy as the top issue – one in six voters pick abortion as their crucial issue, more than in previous states.

GEORGIA – Newt Gingrich looked to home cooking in Georgia to help revive his campaign. More than a third of voters in the Georgia primary say Gingrich’s ties to the state were important in their vote, though fewer say his home-state appeal mattered a great deal. Even still, Georgia voters didn’t decide earlier than the norm: About three in 10 decided in the past few days, with the majority having decided before that. The Georgia electorate this year is more conservative than in 2008: about four in 10 describe themselves as “very” conservative (up from about a third) and two-thirds are evangelicals (up from about six in 10).

Other states voting tonight were expected to be less competitive than those summarized above.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/super-tuesday-exit-polls-ohio-voters-divided-over-most-electable-versus-most-empathetic-candidate/


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 06:01:55 PM
I suspect Santorum will lose by double digits or close to it if those numbers hold up.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 06, 2012, 06:02:55 PM
Santorum is at $0.20 on Intrade, if that is meaningful.  He's been dropping all day.  Mittens is hovering around $8.90.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 06:06:04 PM
Quote
VERMONT

Preliminary results of an exit poll show that Vermont Republican primary voters went to the polls with the economy on their minds.

Most voters called the economy their top priority and nearly three-quarters cited gas prices as an important factor in their choice of a candidate.

Vermont's electorate was markedly different from those in other states where exit or entrance polls have been conducted. It is the only state so far in which a majority of GOP voters were moderate or liberal, and less than half said they consider themselves supporters of the tea party movement.

Preliminary results from the Vermont exit poll include 653 voters. The survey's margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

http://www.necn.com/03/06/12/Preliminary-exit-polls-economy-top-issue/landing.html?&apID=d1df5cacb9c046d0b75764eb43f8aec2


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 06:06:33 PM
Looks like Gingrich is going to cruise in Georgia, not that that's very surprising.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 06:07:53 PM
Quote
Vermont's electorate was markedly different from those in other states where exit or entrance polls have been conducted. It is the only state so far in which a majority of GOP voters were moderate or liberal, and less than half said they consider themselves supporters of the tea party movement.

probably should have predicted Romney over 50%


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 06:08:17 PM
I'm definitely thinking Paul will take second in Vermont.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 06:08:58 PM
Chuck Todd just said on MSNBC that Mitt's campaign has been worried about Paul in Vermont. Paul randomly winning the state would be pretty hilarious.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 06:09:54 PM
50 minutes to go:

I have a good feeling about my picks so far:

OH to Romney, TN and OK remain in the Santorum column, even though I have a weird feeling that TN might opt for Newt.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 06:11:16 PM
Any idea why Santorum is 3rd on ND intrade? Surely he should win there, after all he won Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado with worse national numbers. I would think it's similar to Iowa and Minnesota. Exit polls looking good for Paul in VT.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 06:11:54 PM
Chuck Todd just said on MSNBC that Mitt's campaign has been worried about Paul in Vermont. Paul randomly winning the state would be pretty hilarious.

Paul actually has at least a slight chance in four of the contests tonight. Hopefully he can do something for once but knowing Paul he'll drop the ball at the last second in all of them.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 06:12:49 PM
50 minutes to go:

I have a good feeling about my picks so far:

OH to Romney, TN and OK remain in the Santorum column, even though I have a weird feeling that TN might opt for Newt.

I could really see TN going to any of the top three.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on March 06, 2012, 06:13:10 PM
Any idea why Santorum is 3rd on ND intrade? Surely he should win there, after all he won Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado with worse national numbers. I would think it's similar to Iowa and Minnesota.

His position nationally has gone down considerably since he had those wins.

That's the problem with states voting at totally different times. They're not always easy to compare.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 06:13:40 PM
Any idea why Santorum is 3rd on ND intrade? Surely he should win there, after all he won Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado with worse national numbers. I would think it's similar to Iowa and Minnesota. Exit polls looking good for Paul in VT.

I still think Santorum is going to win North Dakota. If he won Minnesota, he should win the less urban/suburban North Dakota. And back then he was polling nationally in the teens, behind Gingrich and Romney.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on March 06, 2012, 06:15:48 PM
Quote
Yep. I haven't taken early exit polls too seriously ever since President Kerry was elected in a landslide.

Clearly I'm in the wrong timeline...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 06:16:17 PM
I don't know, I just get the feeling that Santorum is going to flop epically in most places tonight. Perhaps Gingrich and Paul can provide a couple of surprises.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 06:17:42 PM
MSNBC says Romney is doing worse among working class voters than he has in past contests, though that's obviously skewed by the fact that a lot more states are southern today (though maybe unskewed by Romney winning >60% in Virginia).


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Oakvale on March 06, 2012, 06:18:04 PM
Get yo little selves in heeya;

#atlasforum @ mibbit.com


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 06, 2012, 06:20:51 PM
MSNBC says Romney is doing worse among working class voters than he has in past contests, though that's obviously skewed by the fact that a lot more states are southern today (though maybe unskewed by Romney winning >60% in Virginia).

Fox, I think limited to OH, said that Santorum was getting 38% without a degree, while Romney was getting 36%.  That is not a lot of difference.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 06:21:24 PM
By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

The early exits are in, and in three key states — Ohio, Tennessee and Georgia — Republican electorates are broadly shaping up to look a lot like those that voted four years ago, with some important differences.

Overall, conservatives make up big shares of voters in all three states, just as they did in 2008.

Evangelical Christians

In Georgia, about two-thirds of Republican primary voters are evangelical Christians, according to preliminary exit polling. The proportion bumps up to nearly three-quarters in Tennessee; it’s around half of all voters in Ohio. Turnout across the three states is at least as high as it was in the 2008 primaries. Evangelical Christians have been a trouble spot for Mitt Romney in several states, and they helped fuel Rick Santorum’s win in Iowa and Newt Gingrich’s win in South Carolina.

Business trumps Government

According to preliminary results, by 2 to 1, GOP voters in all three states prioritize business over government experience when thinking about what makes an effective president.
More preliminary exit poll findings

Georgia: In Georgia, Gingrich challenges Romney as the candidate most likely to beat Obama, but Romney has big leads on this question in both Ohio and Tennessee.

Ohio: A general lack of enthusiasm appears among Ohio primary voters, with barely more than four in 10 saying they’re strongly behind their candidate.

Independents: About a quarter of early voters in preliminary exit polls identify as independents in Ohio, Tennessee and Georgia, up from 2008.

Tennessee: Just over four in 10 primary voters in Tennessee are “very conservative” ideologically, on the high side for states that have voted. Around three-quarters are evangelical Christians, among the highest proportion in states that have voted so far.

Upscale voters: In the early data, the GOP primary electorate in Ohio appears more educated and higher-income than its 2008 counterpart. Close to half of the voters have a college degree, and about three in 10 have income of $100,000 or more, both up from four years ago.

Ideology: While the overall ideological makeup is similar to 2008, there are different shades. In Ohio, about three-quarters say they are fiscally conservative, while about six in 10 say they are socially conservative.

Catholics: If the early numbers hold, the Ohio GOP electorate will be far more Catholic than the one that went to the polls in 2008. Now, more than a third of all voters say they’re Catholic, up from 26 percent four years ago.

Issues: Majorities of primary voters in Ohio and Georgia say the economy is the most important issue in their vote; it’s also No. 1 in Tennessee, as it has been in previous contests with exit polls.

Attributes: The ability to defeat Obama in the fall rises to the top as the most important attribute that primary voters are looking for in Ohio, Georgia and Tennessee.

Religious beliefs important: More than six in 10 primary voters in Ohio, Tennessee and Georgia say it’s important to share a candidate’s religious beliefs, according to preliminary exit polling. Sharing religious values peaks in Tennessee, where nearly three-quarters say so.

Loyal Republicans? Roughly six in 10 Ohio primary voters say they’ll definitely back the Republican nominee for president, regardless of who eventually wins the nomination. That resembles the 62 percent of voters who said so in Michigan last week, but trails the more than seven in 10 voters in Tennessee and eight in 10 in Georgia who say they’ll stick with the party’s nominee.

Tea party political movement: Upward of six in 10 voters in preliminary Ohio and Tennessee exit polling say they’re supporters of the tea party political movement. Among these three states, the number saying so peaks in Georgia, at about seven in 10.

Abortion: Wide majorities in Ohio, Tennessee and Georgia say abortion should be illegal in early exit polls. But those numbers have slipped a bit since 2008, at least in the early numbers.

Late deciders: About a quarter of all GOP primary voters in Ohio and Tennessee say they made up their minds in the past few days; a somewhat higher proportion say so in Georgia, according to the early interviews.

These are preliminary results of Republican voters as they exited primary voting places in Ohio, Tennessee and Georgia on March 6, 2012. The poll was conducted by Edison Media Research for the National Election Pool, The Washington Post and other media organizations.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/behind-the-numbers/post/super-tuesday-exit-polls-an-early-look/2012/03/01/gIQAkdvSvR_blog.html

...

The bold one isn't a terribly good sign for the GOP's chances in the general election ... ;)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 06:28:19 PM
omfg

Quote
VT exits (prelim) - Which candidate best understands problems of avg Americans.? Paul 34%, Romney 28, Santo 18 , Gingrich. 13.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 06:31:03 PM
Howard Fineman says Romney's people still think a brokered convention is a possibility.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 06:31:19 PM
omfg

Quote
VT exits (prelim) - Which candidate best understands problems of avg Americans.? Paul 34%, Romney 28, Santo 18 , Gingrich. 13.

Nice, but considering that the economy easily outpolls "who best understands problems of avg Americans" and Romney usually does really well with those concerned about the economy, it's mostly meaningless.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 06:32:45 PM
Paul in Vermont would be a nice way to kick off the evening. I'm skeptical though.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on March 06, 2012, 06:33:42 PM
This CNN virtual convention simulation is awesome.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ajb on March 06, 2012, 06:34:23 PM
"In Ohio, just 43 percent of voters said they strongly favored their candidate. Another 41 percent said they liked their candidate but with reservations, while 13 percent said they voted for him solely because they disliked the other candidates."

Good news for Mitt Romney?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on March 06, 2012, 06:36:01 PM
"In Ohio, just 43 percent of voters said they strongly favored their candidate. Another 41 percent said they liked their candidate but with reservations, while 13 percent said they voted for him solely because they disliked the other candidates."
So Mitt gets 41% of the vote in Ohio then?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 06:40:55 PM
CNN says the following:

Romney up 40-31 with Catholics in Ohio, tied 37-37

Gingrich with 53% of over 65s in Georgia, and 32% with 18-29s


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 06:42:50 PM
Are we going to have any projections at the top of the hour out of GA, VT, or VA?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Oakvale on March 06, 2012, 06:43:43 PM
Everyone should get to Mibbit (http://www.mibbit.com) and talk on the #atlasforum channel immediately, BTW.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on March 06, 2012, 06:44:25 PM
Are we going to have any projections at the top of the hour out of GA, VT, or VA?

All 3 of them, I imagine. At least Georgia and Virginia, obviously.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 06:44:35 PM
Are we going to have any projections at the top of the hour out of GA, VT, or VA?

Yes, Paul wins in Virginia !!!

:P

Serious: CNN probably projects GA to Newt and VT and VA to Romney.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 06:44:51 PM
I predict GA and VA are called immediately, and (for the lulz) VT is too close to call.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 06:49:27 PM
Paul making VT close would be too funny.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 06:57:00 PM
Still nothing on CNN International:

They are showing right now how to eat Oreo cookies the right way ... :P


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on March 06, 2012, 06:57:48 PM
Still nothing on CNN International:

They are showing right now how to eat Oreo cookies the right way ... :P

Yep...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 07:00:45 PM
Newt wins Georgia!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 07:00:59 PM
Newt Gingrich wins Georgia, Vermont and Virginia, TCTC


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reginald on March 06, 2012, 07:01:07 PM
MSNBC says Virginia's too early to call. LOL


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cavalcade on March 06, 2012, 07:01:35 PM
Virginia (Paul) and Vermont (Santorum???) are too close for MSNBC to call.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 07:02:23 PM
Georgia Exit Poll:

45% Gingrich
26% Romney
20% Santorum
8% Paul

Vermont Exit Poll:

38% Romney
27% Paul
23% Santorum
8% Gingrich

Virginia Exit Poll:

63-64% Romney
36-37% Paul


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 06, 2012, 07:04:09 PM
Virginia (Paul) and Vermont (Santorum???) are too close for MSNBC to call.

VT Paul


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 06, 2012, 07:04:42 PM
Georgia Exit Poll:

45% Gingrich
26% Romney
20% Santorum
8% Paul

Vermont Exit Poll:

38% Romney
27% Paul
23% Santorum
8% Gingrich

Virginia Exit Poll:

63-64% Romney
36-37% Paul

How the heck is that too early to call for Virginia?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: SPQR on March 06, 2012, 07:04:59 PM
Georgia Exit Poll:

45% Gingrich
26% Romney
20% Santorum
8% Paul

Vermont Exit Poll:

38% Romney
27% Paul
23% Santorum
8% Gingrich

Virginia Exit Poll:

63-64% Romney
36-37% Paul

IF true,then worse than expected for Romney.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 07:05:08 PM
Paul coming that close in Vermont is funny but Romney should have it unless the exit poll is way off.

Why aren't they calling Virginia?

And, ah yes, congrats to Newt!!!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 06, 2012, 07:06:45 PM
A few votes in from Virginia (https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2012/A64F1220-CC02-4DED-AB71-09E34ED36339/unofficial/1_s.shtml) (no indication of where they're from yet); Romney up 59-41.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 07:07:20 PM
When/Where are the next closings?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 07:08:16 PM

Ohio at 7:30 pm ET


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reginald on March 06, 2012, 07:08:18 PM

North Dakota and Ohio in about 20 minutes.

EDIT: That might just be part of ND. I think some of the state closes a bit later on.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 07:08:52 PM
No idea why Vermont and Virgnia aren't being called...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 07:10:30 PM
How long will Ohio take to project?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 07:10:52 PM
Virginia - Vote if All 4 GOP Candidates Were on Ballot:

44% Romney
22% Paul
20% Santorum
12% Gingrich


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 06, 2012, 07:11:46 PM
Ari Fleischer is the worst kind of hack: annoying and unfunny.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 07:12:55 PM
These CNN analysts are going at each other tonight.  This could be a fun night watching these two Republicans and two Democrats attack each other. :)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 07:13:01 PM
Ari Fleischer is the worst kind of hack: annoying and unfunny.

Most figures from the Bush regime are, excet Dana Perino - who is hot - or was hot, don't know if she still is.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 07:14:59 PM
Vermont is starting to come in slowly.  All 17 delegates of it.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 07:16:57 PM
I tuned into CNN for election coverage... all I'm getting so far is a huge heated debate about contraceptives.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 07:16:59 PM
MSNBC calls VA. Could have done it 5 weeks ago.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: redcommander on March 06, 2012, 07:17:45 PM
These CNN analysts are going at each other tonight.  This could be a fun night watching these two Republicans and two Democrats attack each other. :)

The Democratic hack to the left of Donna Brazille is annoying as fyck.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 07:18:15 PM
Paul Begala is usually a partisan, yet sensible analyst, but tonight he is feisty.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 06, 2012, 07:19:47 PM
Paul Begala is usually a partisan, yet sensible analyst, but tonight he is feisty.

Castellanos is usually good too but tonight he does nothing more than regurgitating the same old tired Republican talking points. This panel is boring as hell.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 07:20:21 PM
We're about 10 minutes from Ohio closing.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on March 06, 2012, 07:20:44 PM
CNN:

Virginia (3% in):
Romney: 58%
Paul: 42%

Vermont (1% in):
Romney: 38%
Santorum: 27%
Paul: 24%
Gingrich: 9%


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 06, 2012, 07:20:56 PM
Paul won Norton, Virginia. He's close in a few other places.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 07:21:28 PM
CNN calls Virginia for Willard.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 07:21:42 PM
2 projections down, 8 to go.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 07:22:11 PM
VT exit poll has been updated, to Romney 33% and Paul 27%


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 07:22:24 PM
Paul Begala is usually a partisan, yet sensible analyst, but tonight he is feisty.

Castellanos is usually good too but tonight he does nothing more than regurgitating the same old tired Republican talking points. This panel is boring as hell.

Watch MSNBC. Maddow interviewing Harvey Fierstien. ...Oh that's Senator Brown.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 07:22:43 PM
Romney wins Virginia and is looking strong in Vermont. He'll have two states under his belt soon.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 07:23:13 PM
Let's hope Paul comes within 5% in VT, gets more than 40% in VA and Romney finishes 3rd in GA.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 07:23:43 PM
How can you not get on the ballot if you are serious about running for president?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 07:24:14 PM
That's an awful start to tonight for Romney, but it can all be erased in Ohio. How many delegates are we looking at for Paul with 60/40 VA and 33/27 VT?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 07:25:42 PM
That's an awful start to tonight for Romney, but it can all be erased in Ohio. How many delegates are we looking at for Paul with 60/40 VA and 33/27 VT?

There's still a long way to go.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 07:26:27 PM
OH is probably tight as sh*t.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 06, 2012, 07:26:45 PM
That's an awful start to tonight for Romney, but it can all be erased in Ohio. How many delegates are we looking at for Paul with 60/40 VA and 33/27 VT?

60/40 VA will likely end up giving Romney all the delegates unless Paul wins a CD.  VT is somewhat proportional.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 06, 2012, 07:28:52 PM
That's an awful start to tonight for Romney, but it can all be erased in Ohio. How many delegates are we looking at for Paul with 60/40 VA and 33/27 VT?

Zero for Virginia unless Paul wins VA-02 or VA-03 (which appear to be the only ones he has a shot at now).


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 07:29:52 PM
Eagerly awaiting the results in Ohio


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 06, 2012, 07:29:59 PM
Santorum doing surprisingly well in VT? Are GOPers feeling frisky tonight?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 07:30:42 PM
OH Exit Poll:

40% Romney
36% Santorum
12% Gingrich
11% Paul


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on March 06, 2012, 07:31:10 PM
I'm amazed Paul is above 40% in VA, and that he's that close in VT. Hopefully, he wins AK and ND ^^

I'm going to sleep now. I hope this is the worst night for Romney. Goodbye!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 07:32:22 PM
I cannot imagine Santorum winning in Ohio


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 07:32:27 PM
Oklahoma, Massachusetts, and Tennessee close at the top of the hour (8:00 pm ET).


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 07:33:03 PM
I cannot imagine Santorum winning in Ohio

Even if he does win Ohio, it will be watered down very heavily because of the delegate fumble.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 06, 2012, 07:34:16 PM
With exit polls that close in Ohio, it all comes down to the early vote.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 07:34:43 PM
With exit polls that close in Ohio, it all comes down to the early vote.

Indeed


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ajb on March 06, 2012, 07:35:57 PM
Romney's losing voters under 40-45 in VA, VT (to Paul); in OH (to Santorum).
Men in VA are going for Romney over Paul, 54-46. Maybe he should try to repeal the Nineteenth Amendment?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 06, 2012, 07:36:08 PM

I didn't know a santorum is tight.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on March 06, 2012, 07:36:13 PM
CNN:
Virginia (13% in):
Romney: 56%
Paul: 44%

That's surprisingly close!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: SPQR on March 06, 2012, 07:37:22 PM
CNN:
Virginia (13% in):
Romney: 56%
Paul: 44%

That's surprisingly close!
Google,with 25% in,says 55.8-44.2 ...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: HST1948 on March 06, 2012, 07:37:34 PM
MSNBC calls Vermont for Romney


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 07:37:54 PM
Vermont belongs to Romney


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 07:38:24 PM
CNN reports that Mitt carried VT


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 07:38:38 PM
I cannot imagine Santorum winning in Ohio

Even if he does win Ohio, it will be watered down very heavily because of the delegate fumble.

Romney will probably slip by, but racking up wins is all he really needs no matter how close they are.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 06, 2012, 07:39:21 PM
Looks like Paul has a shot at winning VA-03.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 06, 2012, 07:40:09 PM
The SBoE has about half the precincts in for Virginia, guys. (https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2012/A64F1220-CC02-4DED-AB71-09E34ED36339/unofficial/1_s.shtml)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 07:40:43 PM
Sky News has Ron Paul speaking in ND. Bloody hell Rupert.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 06, 2012, 07:41:09 PM
Looks like Paul has a shot at winning VA-03.

Paul is ahead in VA-03 (with very little in), VA-05 and VA-10 (barely), per AP.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_cd/VA_GOP_0306_VD.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

SoS only has Paul ahead in VA-03 (with about a quarter in).

https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2012/A64F1220-CC02-4DED-AB71-09E34ED36339/unofficial/1_d_A5DCD6FA-6694-4931-BBDB-D87E4356EC47_s.shtml



Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 07:42:33 PM
A projected 5% turnout in VA when all votes are counted ?

250.000 out of 5 Million ?

LOL


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 07:42:47 PM
Interesting, Paul always seems to come out first to give a speech completely ignoring the results coming in. He just gets himself on TV first


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 07:43:48 PM
Lake County, OH (NE of Cleveland) so far 40-37% for Romney, only votes in for the state.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on March 06, 2012, 07:44:34 PM
lol at Ron Paul rambling about the fed again.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 07:46:58 PM
CNN TV showing Santorum is leading in Mahoning County in the NE part of the state, SE of Cleveland.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Miles on March 06, 2012, 07:47:53 PM
CNN TV showing Santorum is leading in Mahoning County in the NE part of the state, SE of Cleveland.

Yes, he's up by a few dozen votes there.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 07:49:31 PM
LOL, Sky News saying they expect Ron Paul to have a good night. Love when the UK media try to cover American politics.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reginald on March 06, 2012, 07:50:39 PM
Harold Ford thinks Romney wins Tennessee tonight, for what that's worth.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 07:51:17 PM
Harold Ford thinks Romney wins Tennessee tonight, for what that's worth.

He thought he was going to win it to.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 06, 2012, 07:51:27 PM
Harold Ford thinks Romney wins Tennessee tonight, for what that's worth.

Safe Santorum then? :P


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 06, 2012, 07:51:37 PM
Santorum running a little bit better than exits in GA, VT... might be meaningful if it continues


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 07:52:35 PM
OH Exit Poll now updated to only 38-36.5 for Romney, margin more than cut in half ...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 07:53:07 PM
OH Exit Poll now updated to only 38-36.5 for Romney, margin more than cut in half ...

I'm calling it for Rick. Less than 1%.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 07:54:06 PM
Looks like VA will have nearly all delegates for Romney. What a shame.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 07:54:30 PM
Quote
A new batch of Ohio exit polls just came out, and they show a tighter race: 38 Romney, 36.5 Santo, Newt 12, Paul 11.5.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 06, 2012, 07:54:40 PM
What are Gingrichs chances in Tennessee? I have yet to see a poll from there and I have not been following the lead up to today as closely as I should have :(


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 07:55:25 PM
Looks like VA will have nearly all delegates for Romney. What a [joy].

Fixed.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 07:56:34 PM
What are Gingrichs chances in Tennessee? I have yet to see a poll from there and I have not been following the lead up to today as closely as I should have :(
IMO going into tonigth he was the second most likely to win, but I think it's out of reach because he didn't break 50 in Georgia. I think Santorum has Tennessee, because at the very least he's keeping Ohio close.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 06, 2012, 07:59:33 PM
trolololol!

Al Sharpton on the GOP candidates: "They all have baggage. It's just that Mitt Romney has enough money to pay bellhops to carry his."


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: HST1948 on March 06, 2012, 08:00:40 PM
CNN- Romney wins Massachusetts


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on March 06, 2012, 08:01:02 PM
trolololol!

Al Sharpton on the GOP candidates: "They all have baggage. It's just that Mitt Romney has enough money to pay bellhops to carry his."

I used to dislike Sharpton.....but every since he stared working for MSNBC, I find him to be hilarious.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 08:01:12 PM

Suprise Suprise :)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: HST1948 on March 06, 2012, 08:01:45 PM
trolololol!

Al Sharpton on the GOP candidates: "They all have baggage. It's just that Mitt Romney has enough money to pay bellhops to carry his."

I used to dislike Sharpton.....but every since he stared working for MSNBC, I find him to be hilarious.

lol same


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 08:01:51 PM
TN Exit Poll:

35% Santorum
28% Romney
23% Gingrich
11% Paul

OK Exit Poll:

38% Santorum
25% Romney
24% Gingrich
12% Paul

MA Exit Poll:

70% Romney
12% Santorum
  9% Paul
  4% Gingrich


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 08:02:12 PM
Rick far ahead in OK and TN according to CNN exit polls.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 06, 2012, 08:02:17 PM
Paul has a pretty good chance of winning VA-03; he seems to be doing really well in the minority precincts.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 08:02:24 PM
Too close to call in Oklahoma, but probably not for long.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 08:02:44 PM
fck, Romney's going to win all of MA's delegates then...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 06, 2012, 08:02:50 PM
TN Exit Poll:

35% Santorum
28% Romney
23% Gingrich
11% Paul

OK Exit Poll:

38% Santorum
25% Romney
24% Gingrich
12% Paul

MA Exit Poll:

70% Romney
12% Santorum
  9% Paul
  4% Gingrich

CONGRATULATIONS PHIL!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 08:02:53 PM
Sky reporting that Fox has called OK for Rick.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on March 06, 2012, 08:03:02 PM
Looks like VA will have nearly all delegates for Romney. What a shame.

Fixed.

Restored original intent. But it sounds like Ron Paul will win delegates in VA.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 08:03:18 PM
TN Exit Poll:

35% Santorum
28% Romney
23% Gingrich
11% Paul

OK Exit Poll:

38% Santorum
25% Romney
24% Gingrich
12% Paul

MA Exit Poll:

70% Romney
12% Santorum
  9% Paul
  4% Gingrich

Winning TN by 7 would be impressive for Rick.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 06, 2012, 08:03:27 PM
fck, Romney's going to win all of MA's delegates then...

Was that ever in doubt?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 06, 2012, 08:03:32 PM
trolololol!

Al Sharpton on the GOP candidates: "They all have baggage. It's just that Mitt Romney has enough money to pay bellhops to carry his."

I used to dislike Sharpton.....but every since he stared working for MSNBC, I find him to be hilarious.

lol same
You guys have blueberry pie all over your faces.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 08:04:00 PM
Tennessee and Oklahoma likely to go for Santorum


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 08:04:09 PM

I imagine CNN will call Oklahoma and Tennessee in pretty short order.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 08:05:25 PM
Interesting. Well, hopefully Newt beats Romney in Oklahoma.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 08:08:35 PM
Interesting. Well, hopefully Newt beats Romney in Oklahoma.

If he doesn't, there's something wrong with Newt.  They are pretty even in the exit polls.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 06, 2012, 08:10:20 PM
TN is a 3-way fight, no?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on March 06, 2012, 08:10:36 PM
I'm pleased with Oklahoma. It seemed to be called a bit earlier than I expected, and Tennessee is looking cautiously optimistic. :)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 08:11:29 PM

No, it looks to be clearly Santorum with Romney and Gingrich battling for second.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 08:12:07 PM
I'm pleased with Oklahoma. It seemed to be called a bit earlier than I expected, and Tennessee is looking cautiously optimistic. :)

Oklahoma has not been called by CNN, but it will probably be the next state to be called.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 08:12:32 PM
When is the first caucus state to close?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 08:13:45 PM
Oklahoma starts coming in:

Obama at 62%, getting killed outside of Oklahoma City. Told you so.

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/OK/38065/73474/Web01/en/summary.html


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 08:14:51 PM
Oklahoma starts coming in:

Obama at 62%, getting killed outside of Oklahoma City. Told you so.

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/OK/38065/73474/Web01/en/summary.html

62%. Like President Putin.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cavalcade on March 06, 2012, 08:16:41 PM
Santorum and Romney effectively tied at the moment in Davidson County (Nashville).


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on March 06, 2012, 08:17:29 PM
Has anyone seen anything that is surprising yet?  So far the night seems to be going as expected


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 06, 2012, 08:19:28 PM
Ron Paul won VA-03.  It's 52-48 with 91% in.   What's out is largely in Richmond, which has gone heavily Paul.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reds4 on March 06, 2012, 08:19:57 PM
Franklin County in Ohio is just about tied.. would think Romney would be ahead by more there. We'll see where that one goes.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 08:20:23 PM
Ohio 42-36 for Romney with 7% in, all three major metros are coming in for Romney, as expected.  The western and southern Columbus suburbs look to be Santorum.  Nothing from Toledo or Akron, yet.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 08:20:55 PM
Ron Paul won VA-03.  It's 52-48 with 91% in.   What's out is largely in Richmond, which has gone heavily Paul.
Woo hoo. So that's what, 4 delegates? 5? 6? 3?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 06, 2012, 08:21:18 PM
Guess who's attention-whoring at CNN right now.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 08:21:28 PM
CNN speaking to Palin at the AK caucus in Wasilla. Refuses to say who she voted for. Calls Obama 'Orwellian'.

Refuses to rule out a 2016 run.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 08:23:30 PM
Sarah Palin won't spill who she voted for in Alaska.  Dumb question, CNN.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 06, 2012, 08:24:03 PM
Ron Paul won VA-03.  It's 52-48 with 91% in.   What's out is largely in Richmond, which has gone heavily Paul.
Woo hoo. So that's what, 4 delegates? 5? 6? 3?

3


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 08:25:24 PM
Ron Paul won VA-03.  It's 52-48 with 91% in.   What's out is largely in Richmond, which has gone heavily Paul.
Woo hoo. So that's what, 4 delegates? 5? 6? 3?

3
It's something at least. Very few people honestly thought he would get anything. It also makes me lol at Phil's comments a while back saying Romney would beat Paul 90-10 head to head, which was ironic because the keystone phil's seem to have gone for Paul.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 08:26:09 PM
Oklahoma County so far 36-34% for Santorum.  Cleveland County (Norman) so far 33-31% for Romney.

Nothing from Tulsa.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 08:26:21 PM
Palin refuses to rule out being the compromise candidate at a brokered convention.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 08:26:53 PM
Palin: Ron Paul will do well in Alaska.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 08:27:21 PM
Palin refuses to rule out being the compromise candidate at a brokered convention.

THAT would be a guaranteed Obama victory.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 08:28:11 PM
Palin calls Alaska "a microcosm of the rest of the country". Clearly doesn't know what microcosm means if she thinks that's so.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on March 06, 2012, 08:28:55 PM
CNN is being so insanely slow it's just not even funny.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 08:29:02 PM
Obama just dropped below 60% in Oklahoma.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: redcommander on March 06, 2012, 08:29:49 PM
Obama just dropped below 60% in Oklahoma.

Hopefully he loses. Who is in second place. Supreme or Terry?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on March 06, 2012, 08:30:31 PM
As of right now, Santorum is ahead in every single county that's reporting in Tennessee.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 08:31:28 PM
Obama just dropped below 60% in Oklahoma.

Hopefully he loses. Who is in second place. Supreme or Terry?

Supreme's not on the ballot.

Jim Rogers, a teacher, is second with about 15%.

But Obama can't really "lose", only drop below 50% - which could be seen as a technical loss.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cavalcade on March 06, 2012, 08:35:18 PM
MSNBC calls Tennessee for Rick.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 08:37:29 PM
Fox can't be happy about Palin going on CNN.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reginald on March 06, 2012, 08:38:11 PM
Weird to see Tennessee called before Oklahoma.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 08:38:19 PM
CNN just now calls Tennessee for Santorum.  Still waiting for Oklahoma.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 06, 2012, 08:38:48 PM

Harold Ford FTW!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on March 06, 2012, 08:38:52 PM
I'm sure she'll pop up on FOX soon enough from her home studio.

But i feel sorry for the crew that had to fly to Wasilla just for that 5 minutes with Sarah


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on March 06, 2012, 08:40:22 PM
Fox just called Santorum the winner in Tennessee


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 08:40:40 PM
'I am a real American'

Unlike someone I could name... Oarak Bbama


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: HST1948 on March 06, 2012, 08:42:01 PM
God Callista is as robotic as Mittens... but she's scary too.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 08:42:40 PM
The next President of the United States? What planet are you living on Callista?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 08:43:19 PM
Obama getting more votes in Ohio than ALL Republicans combined ...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on March 06, 2012, 08:43:28 PM
The next President of the United States? What planet are you living on Callista?

Stepford


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cavalcade on March 06, 2012, 08:44:07 PM
The next President of the United States? What planet are you living on Callista?

The moon is not a planet.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 08:44:35 PM
The next President of the United States? What planet are you living on Callista?

She's been on the moonbase.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 08:44:55 PM
The next President of the United States? What planet are you living on Callista?

Stepford

I think she's had a few too many Fig Newtons...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 08:45:37 PM
The next President of the United States? What planet are you living on Callista?

The moon is not a planet.

Oh, so he's the next President of the International Space Station?  I get it now.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: HST1948 on March 06, 2012, 08:46:55 PM
MSNBC- Santorum wins Oklahoma


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 08:47:50 PM
Newt, we don't care where your candidacy has been, we care about what you're going to do for our Lunar friends (not the poster).


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Dereich on March 06, 2012, 08:47:56 PM
Wow, this is a very bitter speech, especially for a victory speech.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 08:48:48 PM
Newt accepting the ABM meme. :)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on March 06, 2012, 08:49:01 PM
I would love to see Santorum take Ohio to drag this thing out some more.  It's comedy.  


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reds4 on March 06, 2012, 08:49:14 PM
Ohio is looking very close


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 08:50:10 PM
Obama at 52% now in Oklahoma ... :P

Don't know which state is more retarded: Oklahoma or Georgia for giving over 70% to Newt/Rick.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 08:50:39 PM
Although the other states are not unimportant, still it all comes down to Ohio tonight. Whoever comes out on top their will have the advantage.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 06, 2012, 08:52:12 PM
Ohio's not getting called until midnight eastern... yeesh


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 08:53:12 PM
Ohio's not getting called until midnight eastern... yeesh

That's only another 3 hours...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 08:54:01 PM
The Romney advantage in Ohio is down to 310 votes!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 08:54:37 PM
Obama now at 50% in Oklahoma.

Both Rogers and Terry are above 15%, which means they are getting delegates, right ?

Or is Oklahoma WTA ?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 08:57:08 PM
224 vote margin in OH!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 08:57:41 PM
And now 18 votes!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cavalcade on March 06, 2012, 08:59:01 PM
Newt is just doing standup now.  It's not bad really.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 08:59:35 PM
Santorum is ahead in OH!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: retromike22 on March 06, 2012, 08:59:59 PM
Newt is doing better in OK than in TN, I thought it would have been the other way around.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on March 06, 2012, 09:00:13 PM
Newt, you can shut up now.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 09:00:32 PM
Will Newt ever sit down?  This fairy tale comedy routine is nice and all, but we still have more states that are left to call or close.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 09:01:32 PM
Rick Santorum wins my home state.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: HST1948 on March 06, 2012, 09:01:41 PM
Newt we get it... you think you are smart and funny. Shut up and go to bed.

Btw CNN projects Santorum wins Oklahoma


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 09:02:19 PM

with just 20% in it might swing a bit before going for Romney... or maybe not


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on March 06, 2012, 09:02:33 PM
In OH I am not sure Santorum lead will last.  Counties where he is ahead have a greater % of the votes counted than the state average, other way around for counties that Romney are leading.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reginald on March 06, 2012, 09:02:45 PM
I can't believe you guys can actually listen to Newt blather on incessantly. I had to mute him about three hours ago. :P


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: HST1948 on March 06, 2012, 09:04:01 PM
So given what we have so far what does everyone think will happen in Ohio?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 09:04:15 PM
Santorum is widening the margin in Ohio. They must be opening up the mail and counting the votes.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reds4 on March 06, 2012, 09:04:26 PM
Yeah Cuyahoga will help Romney quite a bit.. and so will Hamilton

In OH I am not sure Santorum lead will last.  Counties where he is ahead have a greater % of the votes counted than the state average, other way around for counties that Romney are leading.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on March 06, 2012, 09:04:38 PM


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 09:05:58 PM
So given what we have so far what does everyone think will happen in Ohio?

I'm still pretty sure Romney will come out ahead in the end.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: The Professor on March 06, 2012, 09:06:11 PM
So given what we have so far what does everyone think will happen in Ohio?

Keep in mind I am a professor so I know more than the average person in this topic.

The problem for Santorum is the three major cities (Columbus, Cleveland and Cincinnati) + their suburbs have not really come in yet. This is prime territory for the Mormon.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 09:08:19 PM
So far, Rick Santorum is sweeping all the reported counties in Tennessee.  Still have yet to hear from Memphis.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 09:09:58 PM
I think Romney will hold on for the win in Ohio.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on March 06, 2012, 09:10:49 PM
So given what we have so far what does everyone think will happen in Ohio?

Keep in mind I am a professor so I know more than the average person in this topic.

The problem for Santorum is the three major cities (Columbus, Cleveland and Cincinnati) + their suburbs have not really come in yet. This is prime territory for the Mormon Baptist.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 09:11:11 PM
Looks like both Terry and Rogers will get DNC delegates !!!

Terry has a better chance, he's at about 19% right now, while Rogers has abut 16%.

15% are required.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ajb on March 06, 2012, 09:11:38 PM
I think Romney will hold on for the win in Ohio.
That's the most likely outcome, and certainly the truth wrt delegates. But I think expectations had rushed towards Romney this past week, so waiting hours to call Ohio will not look good for him.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: redcommander on March 06, 2012, 09:13:06 PM
Looks like both Terry and Rogers will get DNC delegates !!!

Terry has a better chance, he's at about 19% right now, while Rogers has abut 16%.

15% are required.

Oklahoma is a FF state.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 09:13:24 PM
I think the absentees just broke big for Santorum in Ohio, putting him over the top. I think he'll win there in the end. I would say well done were it not for the delegate snafu.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cavalcade on March 06, 2012, 09:14:03 PM
There's a big difference between the headline tomorrow morning being "Romney wins Ohio" and "Santorum wins Oklahoma and Tennessee; Ohio close when we went to press" even if Romney does win it.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on March 06, 2012, 09:14:14 PM
Wasserman: trouble for Kaptur
Cleveland turnout double that of Toledo.  




Go dennis!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 09:14:43 PM
CNN says ND looks very good for Paul.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: CatoMinor on March 06, 2012, 09:15:03 PM
Paul is looking good in ND :)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 09:16:15 PM

Any state that doesn't go for Romney.. :)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: LastVoter on March 06, 2012, 09:17:03 PM
Wasserman: trouble for Kaptur
Cleveland turnout double that of Toledo.  




Go dennis!
Helms Deep shall not fall!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cavalcade on March 06, 2012, 09:18:35 PM
Santorum on, in happy warrior mode.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: King on March 06, 2012, 09:18:48 PM
Note to Santorum: saying Stubenville three times really fast makes it sound like Stupidville.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Miles on March 06, 2012, 09:19:25 PM
So given what we have so far what does everyone think will happen in Ohio?

Keep in mind I am a professor so I know more than the average person in this topic.

The problem for Santorum is the three major cities (Columbus, Cleveland and Cincinnati) + their suburbs have not really come in yet. This is prime territory for the Mormon.

I think the average political observer could have made that conjecture....


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 09:19:33 PM
Ron Paul gets 3 delegates in Virginia.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: HST1948 on March 06, 2012, 09:19:51 PM
According to CNN in North Dakota w/ 6% in

Santorum- 52%
Paul- 21%
Romney- 15%
Gingrich- 11%






Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 09:20:03 PM
Santorum picked a good time to go on TV: while he is ahead in Ohio. It might look different 1/2 hour from now.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: The Professor on March 06, 2012, 09:20:25 PM
Wasserman: trouble for Kaptur
Cleveland turnout double that of Toledo.  




Go dennis!
Helms Deep shall not fall!

Helms Deep is in Rohan, not Ohio. I suggest you retake Geography.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 09:21:09 PM
Note to Santorum: saying Stubenville three times really fast makes it sound like Stupidville.

That's what I thought until I read the banner. "He's in Stupidville?!"


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 06, 2012, 09:21:29 PM
I love Santorum mocking Romney with the gold/silver medal references!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2012, 09:21:53 PM
Gingrich remains ahead of Romney in OK.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 09:22:55 PM
Wasserman: trouble for Kaptur
Cleveland turnout double that of Toledo.  




Go dennis!
Helms Deep shall not fall!

Helms Deep is in Rohan, not Ohio. I suggest you retake Geography.

Mitt Romney... YOU SHALL NOT PPPPPAAAAASSSSSSSSSSS!!!!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: King on March 06, 2012, 09:23:32 PM
I love Santorum mocking Romney with the gold/silver medal references!

This is a very good contrast speech by Santorum.  He's doing his best to project "100% not rich, 100% not a robot."


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 09:23:52 PM
Everyone on IRC agrees that Sarah Maria Santorum grew up to be super hot.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 09:24:09 PM
According to CNN in North Dakota w/ 6% in

Santorum- 52%
Paul- 21%
Romney- 15%
Gingrich- 11%





No county map though. I'd say it's a few rural districts in which the caucuses lasted 5 minutes.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 09:27:06 PM
Santorum's lead in OH is expanding - it is a vote short of 12,000 now. Can be overcome, but it is getting big.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: LastVoter on March 06, 2012, 09:27:49 PM
Wasserman: trouble for Kaptur
Cleveland turnout double that of Toledo.  




Go dennis!
Helms Deep shall not fall!

Helms Deep is in Rohan, not Ohio. I suggest you retake Geography.
Analogy went over your head.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: The Professor on March 06, 2012, 09:28:08 PM
According to CNN in North Dakota w/ 6% in

Santorum- 52%
Paul- 21%
Romney- 15%
Gingrich- 11%





No county map though. I'd say it's a few rural districts in which the caucuses lasted 5 minutes.

Don't bash rural districts. Their caucuses may have only lasted 5 minutes but that's a lot longer than you can last.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 09:29:04 PM
Santorum's lead in OH is expanding - it is a vote short of 12,000 now. Can be overcome, but it is getting big.

Oh Ohio, You're teasing us aren't you?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 06, 2012, 09:29:29 PM
According to CNN in North Dakota w/ 6% in

Santorum- 52%
Paul- 21%
Romney- 15%
Gingrich- 11%





No county map though. I'd say it's a few rural districts in which the caucuses lasted 5 minutes.

Don't bash rural districts. Their caucuses may have only lasted 5 minutes but that's a lot longer than you can last.
Lol wut?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 09:30:20 PM
Santorum's lead in OH is expanding - it is a vote short of 12,000 now. Can be overcome, but it is getting big.

Oh Ohio, You're teasing us aren't you?

Most likely it is, because Cleveland and Cincinnati are still at 0% reporting and Columbus is only at 14% reporting.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on March 06, 2012, 09:30:46 PM
I think the Santorum people can be relatively pleased - no matter what happens in Ohio (and even that is looking relatively favorable).


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 09:31:00 PM
Not to be an east coast elitist, but aren't all North Dakota districts Rural?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 09:31:46 PM
Santorum's lead in OH is expanding - it is a vote short of 12,000 now. Can be overcome, but it is getting big.

Oh Ohio, You're teasing us aren't you?

Most likely it is, because Cleveland and Cincinnati are still at 0% reporting and Columbus is only at 14% reporting.
That's an error. It's low but not 0.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Dan the Roman on March 06, 2012, 09:31:57 PM
Santorum's lead in OH is expanding - it is a vote short of 12,000 now. Can be overcome, but it is getting big.

Oh Ohio, You're teasing us aren't you?

Most likely it is, because Cleveland and Cincinnati are still at 0% reporting and Columbus is only at 14% reporting.

Its unclear if those numbers are right or Representative. Erie jumped from 22% to 100% with zero additional votes added.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on March 06, 2012, 09:32:03 PM
Santorum's lead in OH is expanding - it is a vote short of 12,000 now. Can be overcome, but it is getting big.

Oh Ohio, You're teasing us aren't you?

Most likely it is, because Cleveland and Cincinnati are still at 0% reporting and Columbus is only at 14% reporting.

You believe Cleveland is at 0% reporting even with about 25,000 votes in?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 09:32:23 PM
Not to be an east coast elitist, but aren't all North Dakota districts Rural?
lol


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 06, 2012, 09:32:59 PM
Santorum picked a good time to go on TV: while he is ahead in Ohio. It might look different 1/2 hour from now.

Of course- the urban areas are barely registering. Romney should win by 2-3% thanks to them, esp. Cuyahoga.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: platypeanArchcow on March 06, 2012, 09:33:16 PM
Santorum's lead in OH is expanding - it is a vote short of 12,000 now. Can be overcome, but it is getting big.

Oh Ohio, You're teasing us aren't you?

Most likely it is, because Cleveland and Cincinnati are still at 0% reporting and Columbus is only at 14% reporting.

You believe Cleveland is at 0% reporting even with about 25,000 votes in?

Those are early votes, no?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 09:33:36 PM
Anyone got a map for ND? Where did CNN get this good news for Paul from ND from?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 09:33:59 PM
Santorum's lead in OH is expanding - it is a vote short of 12,000 now. Can be overcome, but it is getting big.

Oh Ohio, You're teasing us aren't you?

Most likely it is, because Cleveland and Cincinnati are still at 0% reporting and Columbus is only at 14% reporting.

You believe Cleveland is at 0% reporting even with about 25,000 votes in?

I'm just showing what CNN.com is showing.  I know its not 0, I was just going off CNN.com.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Miles on March 06, 2012, 09:34:07 PM
Santorum keeps expanding his lead; he's up 39-35.6.

I'm expecting that to narrow when Cleveland reports though.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ajb on March 06, 2012, 09:34:44 PM
Santorum's lead in OH is expanding - it is a vote short of 12,000 now. Can be overcome, but it is getting big.

Oh Ohio, You're teasing us aren't you?

Most likely it is, because Cleveland and Cincinnati are still at 0% reporting and Columbus is only at 14% reporting.

You believe Cleveland is at 0% reporting even with about 25,000 votes in?

I'm just showing what CNN.com is showing.  I know its not 0, I was just going off CNN.com.

Franklin County (Columbus) is almost even, with 14% in. I wouldn't count on it helping Romney that much.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on March 06, 2012, 09:36:11 PM
These victory speeches are much longer compared to other nights.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 09:36:39 PM
Romney should talk now while Ohio is still up in the air. Just in case.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 09:36:49 PM
The big metro counties in OH have reported early on some significant totals that gave Romney the lead - must have been early votes. Since then they haven't been reporting, except for a few precincts in Franklin County (Columbus), which is close to a tie, anyway.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 09:37:46 PM
The margin in OH seems to be shrinking - in a few minutes it went from about 17,000 votes, to about 14,000.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 06, 2012, 09:38:34 PM
The margin in OH seems to be shrinking - in a few minutes it went from about 17,000 votes, to about 14,000.

Yep. Here it comes...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 09:40:53 PM
Intrade Alaska numbers only adding up to 80. Strange.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 09:41:24 PM
Romney should talk now while Ohio is still up in the air. Just in case.

I'm sure he would rather come out when he is leading in Ohio, but that might not happen.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 09:42:19 PM
One thing to be sure: Romney's put to rest any question about his home state: he is a MA guy, through and through.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: mondale84 on March 06, 2012, 09:44:39 PM
Where are people getting the Democratic primary numbers?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 09:47:13 PM
The OH margine has widened to over 15,000 votes from about 13,000 at its through, but there has been no further reporting from the metros.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 09:48:04 PM
Paul's moving up in ND, he's gone ahead of Romney by 3%.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 06, 2012, 09:48:24 PM
What do resident Ohioans think will happen? IMO the metros will give Romney a squeaker.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 06, 2012, 09:48:42 PM
SHHH!  MITT IS SPEAKING!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 06, 2012, 09:49:17 PM
Far too early to call Ohio folks.  Don't even think about it.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 06, 2012, 09:49:56 PM
Ann did a great job reading the names of politicians that support Mitt. Unfortunately for them, not as many voters to list tonight...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Mopsus on March 06, 2012, 09:50:14 PM
Listening to Romney compliment Paul during his speech in Massachusetts... they really are BFFs, aren't they?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 09:51:06 PM
ND is very much looking like Rick 1, Paul 2, Mitt 3.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cavalcade on March 06, 2012, 09:51:30 PM
Santorum wins Bismarck, and Fargo seems to be a tossup vs. Paul...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: mondale84 on March 06, 2012, 09:51:45 PM
nvm I found it...Obama losing many counties in Oklahoma... :P

...and he's in third place in some...ouch...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 09:52:48 PM
Santorum wins Bismarck, and Fargo seems to be a tossup vs. Paul...
Have you got a map?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cavalcade on March 06, 2012, 09:53:30 PM
Santorum wins Bismarck, and Fargo seems to be a tossup vs. Paul...
Have you got a map?

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: marvelrobbins on March 06, 2012, 09:55:30 PM
Santorum could pull off Ohio win.

I still think Paul getting 41 percent In Virginia Is kinda funny.

Gingrich may pull off second In OK


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 09:55:51 PM
The tables have turned for Romney on Intrade going from more than 80% for Romney to 80% for Santorum


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 09:56:06 PM
OH metros continue very slow. A few votes have just come in from Franklin County, expanding a bit Romney's margin there and reducing Santorum's statewide margin to about 14,500 from near 16,000, but little news from elsewhere.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 06, 2012, 09:56:38 PM
So when that comes in, Mitt wins?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 09:57:36 PM
Who knows?

A big dump from the NE OH counties (not the biggest ones) and the margin is under 12,000.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RodPresident on March 06, 2012, 09:58:59 PM
Romney should win Ohio because Cincinatti. Kaptur-Kucinich battle helped to reduce number of independents voting in Democratic primary in Ohio Southwest, that would be decisive to Santorum's prospects. Now, it's wait to see.
Mitt's problem is that his early advantage in urban centers can collapse like Missouri, although I doubt it because context.
In Massachussetts, anti-Mitt crowd is failing miserably. It's a MMP and a strategy to get Santorum and Paul over the threesold is failing. Paul should have a get bunch of college voters in Boston.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Colbert on March 06, 2012, 09:59:03 PM
romney win OHIO

With a marge of 50 000 voters


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: platypeanArchcow on March 06, 2012, 09:59:16 PM
Santorum wins Bismarck, and Fargo seems to be a tossup vs. Paul...

The non-college part of Minot went heavily for Romney.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 09:59:26 PM
Romney (barely) got into the 2nd spot in OK w/ 54% reporting.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 06, 2012, 09:59:47 PM
Let me clarify remarks made about 10 minutes ago.  Probably somewhere around a 2-1 shot Santorum wins Ohio.  Really am not seeing where the votes come from to help Romney overcome the margin.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Nation on March 06, 2012, 10:00:26 PM
Romney: "Obama killed bin Laden. I will bring bin Laden back to life." #SuperTuesday
 — @BorowitzReport via web


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Colbert on March 06, 2012, 10:00:42 PM
this is the end for santorum. Condoleance, Phil !


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 10:00:58 PM
I'm projecting ND for Santorum.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 06, 2012, 10:01:14 PM
romney win OHIO

With a marge of 50 000 voters

qua?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:01:27 PM
Big dumps from Cleveland and Columbus, but the gap is stubbornly just under 12,000.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 10:01:35 PM
So Romney only managed to beat Ron Paul 59%-41% in VA? Well, that pretty much tells you everything you need to know about him as a candidate.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: M on March 06, 2012, 10:01:40 PM
Let me clarify remarks made about 10 minutes ago.  Probably somewhere around a 2-1 shot Santorum wins Ohio.  Really am not seeing where the votes come from to help Romney overcome the margin.

Really? I very much respect your political insight. But why wouldn't Cuyahoga and Hamilton propel him over the top?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:02:07 PM
Now its just under 10,000


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 10:02:20 PM
Romney rebounds on intrade back ahead of Santorum


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Nation on March 06, 2012, 10:03:25 PM
Yeah, even if Romney does win OH narrowly -- Santorum's on pace for 3 victories, possibly 4 with Alaska. He isn't going anywhere.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on March 06, 2012, 10:03:50 PM
Santorum dominates in ND!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Colbert on March 06, 2012, 10:04:02 PM


I bring the result of big cities counties

for exemple, cleveland 6 % vote open, i made a mathematic operation and make the results from 6% to 100%

(excuse me, my english is bad, so it may be very clear explainations)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 10:04:30 PM
Romney rebounds on intrade back ahead of Santorum
This shows you how useless it is at predicting. They know less than most people on this forum. Nothing much changed with that dump. You'd swear 4 your olds were placing the bets.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on March 06, 2012, 10:04:55 PM
WHen Romney talks I am always reminded of this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLR3CgeUeyc&feature=related


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 06, 2012, 10:05:27 PM
Hopefully the cities give it to Mittens. I'm still clinging to Silver giving Romney a 64% chance of winning OH... and he's called all the primary winners so far. *Gulps*


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:05:45 PM
A lot of Hamilton has just come in - and it is still an almos 11,000 vote margin. It will be close - may be closer than it is now - but I start seeing possibilities for Santorum to make it.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cavalcade on March 06, 2012, 10:05:52 PM
Cleveland and Cincinnati now reporting roughly even with the rest of Ohio, and Romney down by 10k.  I think Santorum wins.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 06, 2012, 10:06:12 PM
Let me clarify remarks made about 10 minutes ago.  Probably somewhere around a 2-1 shot Santorum wins Ohio.  Really am not seeing where the votes come from to help Romney overcome the margin.

Really? I very much respect your political insight. But why wouldn't Cuyahoga and Hamilton propel him over the top?

If taken alone, yes, they might.  But we don't know where the precincts are that are reporting, and generally in Cleveland, the inner precincts with no votes report last.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RodPresident on March 06, 2012, 10:06:26 PM
If Romney wins Ohio, he wins with an advantadge of less than 15k votes.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 06, 2012, 10:06:32 PM
Satourm is getting the percentages he needs in the big cities to keep this really close for entire night. In case you are all interested this is been a good guide as to what percentages Santourm needs to get.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/06/1071406/-Ohio-and-Tennessee-primary-benchmarks-and-predictions?detail=hide&via=blog_542760  


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 10:07:15 PM
MSNBC has it back up to about 13,000


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:07:25 PM
It's back to 13,000


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 06, 2012, 10:07:52 PM
Let me clarify remarks made about 10 minutes ago.  Probably somewhere around a 2-1 shot Santorum wins Ohio.  Really am not seeing where the votes come from to help Romney overcome the margin.

Really? I very much respect your political insight. But why wouldn't Cuyahoga and Hamilton propel him over the top?

If taken alone, yes, they might.  But we don't know where the precincts are that are reporting, and generally in Cleveland, the inner precincts with no votes report last.

A good number of downstate counties are only half in as well...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 10:08:33 PM
Santorum wins North Dakota


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Colbert on March 06, 2012, 10:09:03 PM
If Romney wins Ohio, he wins with an advantadge of less than 15k votes.


yes, extrapolations that I made were too optimistic for the wealthy mormon, but that was only equations


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 10:09:18 PM
Ohio a very significant tiebreaker indeed!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:09:43 PM
Whoever wins OH, I think, will win it w/ a margin of 10,000 votes or less.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Colbert on March 06, 2012, 10:10:03 PM
the best link that i had found

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/06/super-tuesday-2012-results_n_1324709.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HP%2FPolitics+%28Politics+on+The+Huffington+Post%29


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on March 06, 2012, 10:10:27 PM
In theory Romney and Santorum could each end the night with 4 states, and with Santorum winning OH (although still ending up with less overall delegates)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Nation on March 06, 2012, 10:10:40 PM
lol rick perry getting .7% of the vote


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: marvelrobbins on March 06, 2012, 10:12:39 PM
This Is going as democrats wanted.This keeps going.Romney hasn't won any Southern states.
He may still lose Ohio.Santorum won ND.

Nate Silver Is reporting romney In underperforming and Santorum Is overperforming.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 10:13:11 PM
If it stays the way it is, Rick Santorum will "win" Ohio, but Mitt Romney will come out with the victory.  Rick's delegate fumble will come back to bite him in the butt.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Colbert on March 06, 2012, 10:13:50 PM
santorum resist very well in columbus


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 10:13:57 PM
Looks like Mittens will do well in Idaho, perhaps taking all the delegates due to the way they're assigned, if I read erc's guide properly.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 10:14:15 PM
Santorum sure messed up by not getting on the ballot everywhere!!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 06, 2012, 10:14:20 PM
That last batch of Franklin County was about even.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 10:16:06 PM
If it stays the way it is, Rick Santorum will "win" Ohio, but Mitt Romney will come out with the victory.  Rick's delegate fumble will come back to bite him in the butt.

If the headline is "SANTORUM WINS OH" it won't matter.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on March 06, 2012, 10:17:28 PM

I call shenanigans


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 06, 2012, 10:17:35 PM
Wow, with only 25% of the vote left to be counted in Franklin County, Santourm is only down by 4%!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:17:56 PM
Back to 14,000. Hm.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 10:18:31 PM
If it stays the way it is, Rick Santorum will "win" Ohio, but Mitt Romney will come out with the victory.  Rick's delegate fumble will come back to bite him in the butt.

If the headline is "SANTORUM WINS OH" it won't matter.

Yes but it would be even better if there was no foot-note next to the win.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 10:19:03 PM
14,100. It's getting late early.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:19:10 PM
Wow, with only 25% of the vote in Franklin County, Santourm is only down by 4%!

Well, it's been worse (for Romney) at the beginning of the night. It is Cuyahoga and Hamilton that are doing Romney pulling - and more of them is left.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: useful idiot on March 06, 2012, 10:19:31 PM
If it stays the way it is, Rick Santorum will "win" Ohio, but Mitt Romney will come out with the victory.  Rick's delegate fumble will come back to bite him in the butt.

Delegates are nice, but a win is a win when you have Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi coming up within the next week. What's always been key for him has been getting enough of a boost to overcome the number of Gingrich voters that are going to show up in these primaries. If he can bag those three states it'll make up for it and make Illinois an interesting showdown.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 10:20:09 PM
If it stays the way it is, Rick Santorum will "win" Ohio, but Mitt Romney will come out with the victory.  Rick's delegate fumble will come back to bite him in the butt.

If the headline is "SANTORUM WINS OH" it won't matter.

I agree with you to a point because of the average voter, but delegates are what will win the nomination and, if I'm correct, other than Illinois on March 20, there are no more real big prizes until New York and Pennsylvania vote on April 24.  The momentum from March 6 will be long forgotten by April 24, and will likely be diminished by March 20.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:20:43 PM
15,002 vote margin :))

that's not yet it, but starting to get close.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 10:21:59 PM
Let me clarify remarks made about 10 minutes ago.  Probably somewhere around a 2-1 shot Santorum wins Ohio.  Really am not seeing where the votes come from to help Romney overcome the margin.

Really? I very much respect your political insight. But why wouldn't Cuyahoga and Hamilton propel him over the top?

If taken alone, yes, they might.  But we don't know where the precincts are that are reporting, and generally in Cleveland, the inner precincts with no votes report last.

That appears to be true in Dayton, Columbus and Cleveland as well. Maybe Columbus and Cleveland are not that variegated, but Dayton (Montgomery County) might be. And it has a fairly low percentage of precincts reporting. Still, if I had to guess, the odds of Santorum getting more votes in the end is probably around 60% now. The "problem" is that the GOP electorate is just that variegated. It's not like a Pub versus a Dem contest - at all.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on March 06, 2012, 10:22:17 PM
Frothy isn't winning the nomination anyway, so the delegates really don't matter if he wins. The importance of Ohio is going to the narrative about Romney and how he can't win mid-west states(MI doesn't count.)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 10:22:37 PM
The big thing Ohio does in terms of momentum is it sets the candidate up to win Illinois. I think Santorum is now firmly in that position, and until April 24th (that's the NE vote day right?) Romney could find it very tough going.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: useful idiot on March 06, 2012, 10:23:33 PM
If it stays the way it is, Rick Santorum will "win" Ohio, but Mitt Romney will come out with the victory.  Rick's delegate fumble will come back to bite him in the butt.

If the headline is "SANTORUM WINS OH" it won't matter.

I agree with you to a point because of the average voter, but delegates are what will win the nomination and, if I'm correct, other than Illinois on March 20, there are no more real big prizes until New York and Pennsylvania vote on April 24.  The momentum from March 6 will be long forgotten by April 24, and will likely be diminished by March 20.

MS, AL, and KS collectively are worth 130 delegates


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on March 06, 2012, 10:23:57 PM

Of course you do. Ron Paul didn't win.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 06, 2012, 10:24:25 PM
Is there any chance of Mittens pulling it out? Silver thinks Santorum will win by 1-2 if current trends continue.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 10:24:40 PM
If it stays the way it is, Rick Santorum will "win" Ohio, but Mitt Romney will come out with the victory.  Rick's delegate fumble will come back to bite him in the butt.

If the headline is "SANTORUM WINS OH" it won't matter.

I agree with you to a point because of the average voter, but delegates are what will win the nomination and, if I'm correct, other than Illinois on March 20, there are no more real big prizes until New York and Pennsylvania vote on April 24.  The momentum from March 6 will be long forgotten by April 24, and will likely be diminished by March 20.

MS, AL, and KS collectively are worth 120 delegates

I'm talking about individual prizes, not collective.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 10:24:49 PM
15,200 vote margin.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: useful idiot on March 06, 2012, 10:26:03 PM
If it stays the way it is, Rick Santorum will "win" Ohio, but Mitt Romney will come out with the victory.  Rick's delegate fumble will come back to bite him in the butt.

If the headline is "SANTORUM WINS OH" it won't matter.

I agree with you to a point because of the average voter, but delegates are what will win the nomination and, if I'm correct, other than Illinois on March 20, there are no more real big prizes until New York and Pennsylvania vote on April 24.  The momentum from March 6 will be long forgotten by April 24, and will likely be diminished by March 20.

MS, AL, and KS collectively are worth 120 delegates

I'm talking about individual prizes, not collective.

Does it matter if it's individual or collective? Winning OH makes those states much easier for him to win, period.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:26:08 PM
There is, indeed, a chance Romney will pull through, but it is getting smaller with each minute.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 06, 2012, 10:27:56 PM
Unrelated to Ohio... Santorum killed it in TN tonight... he's definately got a shot at winning Alabama/Mississippi.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:28:23 PM
Lucas County (Toledo) has just reported about a quarter of its precincts (went from 30% to 55%) and it switched from Romney to Santorum!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 06, 2012, 10:29:48 PM
Let me clarify remarks made about 10 minutes ago.  Probably somewhere around a 2-1 shot Santorum wins Ohio.  Really am not seeing where the votes come from to help Romney overcome the margin.

Really? I very much respect your political insight. But why wouldn't Cuyahoga and Hamilton propel him over the top?

If taken alone, yes, they might.  But we don't know where the precincts are that are reporting, and generally in Cleveland, the inner precincts with no votes report last.

That appears to be true in Dayton, Columbus and Cleveland as well. Maybe Columbus and Cleveland are not that variegated, but Dayton (Montgomery County) might be. And it has a fairly low percentage of precincts reporting. Still, if I had to guess, the odds of Santorum getting more votes in the end is probably around 60% now. The "problem" is that the GOP electorate is just that variegated. It's not like a Pub versus a Dem contest - at all.

True, but this primary has more to do with class/income than other things, so maybe variegated in a different way.

Remember that I said intangibles were all on Rick's side in Ohio (as opposed to Michigan, where they were all against him).  For some reason, Ohio is just poorer and more Republican than it polls.  Has been since rocks cooled (to use a Torieism).  I remembered that from 2008 Dem primary, which is to say that things are not "that" different.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:31:57 PM
Ther margin has gone done to just over 12,000 - not clear what reported yet.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 10:32:26 PM
Surprisingly, Romney is closer to Santorum in OK than in TN.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 10:33:17 PM
CNN read live another slug of votes from Hamilton, and it slashed Rick's margin down to 9K votes. It then "visited" some other Mittens counties, and it looks about dead even, if elsewhere, what come before matches what comes next. The key may be Clemont, where Rick has a slight lead, with 1% of the vote in.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on March 06, 2012, 10:33:23 PM
In other news, Idaho is going huge for Romney (70+), Paul a very distant 2nd.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on March 06, 2012, 10:34:54 PM
Mitt's closing in, but I'm not sure it'll be enough. :(


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 10:35:41 PM
In other news, Idaho is going huge for Romney (70+), Paul a very distant 2nd.
I'm guessing that's because the SE is very mormon.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 06, 2012, 10:35:53 PM
That slug of Hamilton was extremely favorable - Romney won it by about 6,000.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 10:36:20 PM
Mitt's closing in, but I'm not sure it'll be enough. :(

I really think it comes down to Clemont. If it goes Rick, Rick wins - if what came before per county replicates what remains.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:36:30 PM
Hamilton (Cincinnati) has reported a lot (it now matches the state average of 78%). Santorum advantage down to 7,000


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 06, 2012, 10:38:33 PM
The Hamilton numbers were so favorable that you have to certainly give Mitt a shot to win now.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 10:39:20 PM
If it stays the way it is, Rick Santorum will "win" Ohio, but Mitt Romney will come out with the victory.  Rick's delegate fumble will come back to bite him in the butt.

If the headline is "SANTORUM WINS OH" it won't matter.

I agree with you to a point because of the average voter, but delegates are what will win the nomination and, if I'm correct, other than Illinois on March 20, there are no more real big prizes until New York and Pennsylvania vote on April 24.  The momentum from March 6 will be long forgotten by April 24, and will likely be diminished by March 20.

MS, AL, and KS collectively are worth 120 delegates

I'm talking about individual prizes, not collective.

Does it matter if it's individual or collective? Winning OH makes those states much easier for him to win, period.

It does matter, because no  matter how you slice it, $30 an hour is better than $30 every three hours.  I know that's a poor analogy, but it somewhat fits.  It's true the average voter will see Ohio colored for Santorum and that will be huge, don't get me wrong, but Romney will probably roll out TV ads claiming victory in Ohio (and rightfully so) in Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Illinois, Louisiana, and probably Maryland and Wisconsin who vote on April 3.  It's almost like the effect Iowa had, which was nill.  Iowa shouldn't really be colored at all, it should be shaded as a tie.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reds4 on March 06, 2012, 10:39:36 PM
The counties to watch now are Cuyahoga and Medina (which hasn't reported anything yet).. Medina could be key.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 06, 2012, 10:40:06 PM
Franklin is pretty much done (91%), Mitt gained 1000.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:40:26 PM
A dump from Franklin - this time it brings Romney lead in the county up to 5% and Santorum margin statewide down to just over 6,000!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 10:40:43 PM
The counties to watch now are Cuyahoga and Medina (which hasn't reported anything yet).. Medina could be key.

Yes, I forgot Medina, but I suspect it will be close between Mittens and Rick.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 10:41:20 PM
It is going to be really really close. Romney should close in a bit more. The question is will it be enough


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reginald on March 06, 2012, 10:41:29 PM
In other news, Idaho is going huge for Romney (70+), Paul a very distant 2nd.
I'm guessing that's because the SE is very mormon.

Yeah, Google says Romney won the county furthest southeast, Bear Lake, with just under ninety percent of the vote. Not exactly tough to figure out why that is! :P


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reds4 on March 06, 2012, 10:41:58 PM
I think Medina will go to Romney, but I don't think it will be a big margin


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 06, 2012, 10:42:04 PM
In other news that no one will pay attention to, I'd be really surprised, with what's left, that Rick makes the 20% threshold in GA.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: 2952-0-0 on March 06, 2012, 10:43:14 PM
It will be hilarious if Ohio comes down to a recount with a resulting media circus for weeks and weeks.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 10:43:18 PM
In other news that no one will pay attention to, I'd be really surprised, with what's left, that Rick makes the 20% threshold in GA.

I think it was expected that Rick would be shut out in Georgia. That was my assumption when I prepared my spreadsheet.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 10:44:04 PM
2500 vote lead for Santa


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 10:44:10 PM
Gap 2,500 now in favor of Rick.  CNN didn't say why or where, because it had to cut to a commercial. :(


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:44:26 PM
Something else has just reported, not clear what - margin under 3,000!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 06, 2012, 10:44:57 PM
Cuyahoga is:
Mitt Romney ( REP )   28220
Rick Santorum ( REP )   17795

with about 60% in, according to the county's website (http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/RaceResultsAll.aspx).

That's a net gain of 3,441 for Romney from what the AP is showing.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reds4 on March 06, 2012, 10:45:22 PM
Cuyahoga county website showing Romney with a 10,500 vote lead instead of 7,000 CNN is showing.. so romney will gain that soon.. might take the lead back soon.. will be very close


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 06, 2012, 10:45:40 PM
Mont Co gave Romney about another 3,000.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on March 06, 2012, 10:46:13 PM
i am hoping rick wins OH, but i still think Romney will pull this out with the big city areas still counting


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 10:46:18 PM
Cuyahoga is:
Mitt Romney ( REP )   28220
Rick Santorum ( REP )   17795

with about 60% in, according to the county's website (http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/RaceResultsAll.aspx).

That's a net gain of 3,441 for Romney from what the AP is showing.

So the "why" is a Cuyahoga dump. Was it more Mittens than what come before there?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on March 06, 2012, 10:46:51 PM
Medina is my county.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on March 06, 2012, 10:47:51 PM
Of course it is all symbolic. Romney will win OH in delegates by far


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cavalcade on March 06, 2012, 10:48:31 PM
Google has Romney down by 1500, with Cuyahoga still at 41% in.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on March 06, 2012, 10:49:06 PM
OK, time to place our bets.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 06, 2012, 10:49:27 PM
Medina is:
Rep Dlgt-at-Lg & Alt-at-Lg to Nat Conv    REP         
Precincts Reporting       85    
Total Votes       3119    
Newt Gingrich         480    15.39%
Jon Huntsman         17    0.55%
Ron Paul         250    8.02%
Rick Perry         17    0.55%
Mitt Romney         1213    38.89%
Rick Santorum         1142    36.61%

So Romney +71.

With about 60-70% in.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:50:16 PM
Barely over 2000 votes - and Cuyahoga is still on 41%. Romney is now definitely favored. It will be fun!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 06, 2012, 10:50:20 PM
This reminds me a lot of the Democratic primary in Indiana in 2008.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:51:19 PM
This reminds me a lot of the Democratic primary in Indiana in 2008.

Yes, it does :))


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: useful idiot on March 06, 2012, 10:51:32 PM
This is over. Shame...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 10:51:50 PM
Romney will win and by maybe 5,000+ plus votes unless Medina and Clemont surprise big time. The Hamilton dump put Mittens ahead, with a ton of votes still out in Cleveland.

As noted above, it's over. Boy, Mittens must have been sweating!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 10:52:08 PM
Hamilton is 99% in and Romney has just shy of a 16,000 vote lead.  Cuyahoga is only at 41% in, most of the Santorum counties are all in.

I'm going with Romney.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 10:52:27 PM
If what CNN is reporting from Hamilton then Romney should win.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 06, 2012, 10:52:42 PM
I agree. Romney is certainly favored at this point.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on March 06, 2012, 10:52:54 PM
This reminds me a lot of the Democratic primary in Indiana in 2008.
This reminds me a lot of the Republican causus in Iowa in 2012.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: JohnCA246 on March 06, 2012, 10:53:20 PM
I don't see how Romney can lose with that many outstanding in Cuyahoga. Santorum country seems to all be counted.l


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 10:54:00 PM
If you count Ohio in the Romney camp, with Idaho that will be 5 states for Romney to 3 for Santorum to 1 for Gingrich and Alaska still has one hour left until they close.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 10:54:19 PM
Kudos to CNN for a fantastic reporting job. A+!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:55:09 PM
This reminds me a lot of the Democratic primary in Indiana in 2008.
This reminds me a lot of the Republican causus in Iowa in 2012.

Nothing in common.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 10:55:59 PM
Santorum's lead in OH is expanding - it is a vote short of 12,000 now. Can be overcome, but it is getting big.

Oh Ohio, You're teasing us aren't you?

Hey, I was right. Darn.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 06, 2012, 10:56:51 PM
Romney will win and by maybe 5,000+ plus votes unless Medina and Clemont surprise big time. The Hamilton dump put Mittens ahead, with a ton of votes still out in Cleveland.

As noted above, it's over. Boy, Mittens must have been sweating!

I posted results from Medina's county BoE website upthread.  It's marginal for Romney.  Clermont hasn't reported anything but absentees on the AP and county's website.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 10:59:08 PM
5 States for Romney + 3 for Santorum + lots of Delegates for Romney = Romney eeks to another victory.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 10:59:41 PM
Medina is on CNN w/ 6% reporting - yes, marginal for Romney. Lucas is back in Romney's column. CNN still shows 3000 vote lead for Santorum - but without anything recent from Hamilton or Cuyahoga. Yes, Romney should make it.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 11:00:58 PM
Romney will win and by maybe 5,000+ plus votes unless Medina and Clemont surprise big time. The Hamilton dump put Mittens ahead, with a ton of votes still out in Cleveland.

As noted above, it's over. Boy, Mittens must have been sweating!

I posted results from Medina's county BoE website upthread.  It's marginal for Romney.  Clermont hasn't reported anything but absentees on the AP and county's website.

Then it's really over unless Clermont goes 3-1 for Rick and that isn't happening of course. Mittens may be headed to a 15,000 vote margin. What came before was not what came next in these big city counties. Rick did better with the early vote for some reason.  CNN says with the Hamilton dump, Mittens is ahead by 3,000 at this point.  Wow!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Reds4 on March 06, 2012, 11:01:39 PM
New update in Cuyahoga County

Mitt Romney 31092
Rick Santorum   19483



Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 11:03:17 PM
The reason is obvious, actually: early reports from the metros were the early votes (that's why they were showing 0 precincts). A lot of these went out before the recent Romney surge.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 06, 2012, 11:04:08 PM
Clermont will net Romney 892 votes overall when it reports, per the county's website.  That's a swing of 1068 from what the AP is currently showing, if I've done the math right.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 11:04:54 PM
CNN places Romney up by 3000 over Santorum in Ohio, not posted on totals board as of yet.

The results haven't been submitted to the Republican State Party HQ in Columbus, yet.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 11:05:00 PM
Clermont has reported in full - and gave nearly a thousand vote margin to Romney.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 06, 2012, 11:06:21 PM
Romney now in front.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 11:06:28 PM
Rick lost because he must have lost the Catholic vote by about 10 points as a guess. I have not looked at the exit polls. Maybe they have a different number, but that is my guess. Catholics as it were are going to nominate Romney.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 06, 2012, 11:06:55 PM
Romney will win and by maybe 5,000+ plus votes unless Medina and Clemont surprise big time. The Hamilton dump put Mittens ahead, with a ton of votes still out in Cleveland.

As noted above, it's over. Boy, Mittens must have been sweating!

I posted results from Medina's county BoE website upthread.  It's marginal for Romney.  Clermont hasn't reported anything but absentees on the AP and county's website.

Then it's really over unless Clermont goes 3-1 for Rick and that isn't happening of course. Mittens may be headed to a 15,000 vote margin. What came before was not what came next in these big city counties. Rick did better with the early vote for some reason.  CNN says with the Hamilton dump, Mittens is ahead by 3,000 at this point.  Wow!

Sorry Torie.  I didn't see your post before I said Romney was up.  I deleted my post.  :)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 11:07:48 PM
Romney ahead by 1500 votes as per CNN results webpage (Cuyahoga up to 60% reporting).


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on March 06, 2012, 11:08:06 PM
Yeah, I find it interesting that Romney wins the Catholic vote in both Ohio and Georgia.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 11:08:45 PM
Clermont will net Romney 892 votes overall when it reports, per the county's website.  That's a swing of 1068 from what the AP is currently showing, if I've done the math right.

Mittens may get as much as a 20,000 vote margin then. What is that - a 2% win?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 06, 2012, 11:10:03 PM
Well not all that much has changed today, no one will really gain momentum and even if Romney does I don't think it'd be enough for Kansas, MS and AL.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 11:10:26 PM
Romney must be breathing a bit easier now.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 11:10:54 PM
Hamilton 99% in - Romney's ahead by 6,500 votes. Yeah, he wins it, and it won't be too narrow.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Politico on March 06, 2012, 11:11:30 PM
It's over, but the media won't make it official until some point between now and midnight.

Congratulations, Winfield!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: 2952-0-0 on March 06, 2012, 11:12:02 PM
How will Rick spin this Ohio result? Will he publicly urge Newt to drop out?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: © tweed on March 06, 2012, 11:12:16 PM
what a cocktease this all was.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: HST1948 on March 06, 2012, 11:12:49 PM
NBC- Romney wins Idaho


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 11:13:41 PM
Some rural remnants must have come in - the margin is down to about 5,500 votes.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: rbt48 on March 06, 2012, 11:14:37 PM
I expect a finally Romney margin in OH of 18,000 to 19,000 votes.  Less than a 2,500 vote margin would force a recount.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on March 06, 2012, 11:14:50 PM
:)

I'm very pleased with tonight - an upset in Tennessee would have been great, but still, it's going to be hard for anyone but Romney to spin this as a win. Hopefully it'll be able to hold him through till April 24th. It should.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 11:15:57 PM
It's just over 4500 vote margin now.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 06, 2012, 11:16:23 PM
Ohio SoS website (http://vote.sos.state.oh.us/pls/enrpublic/f?p=130:18:0:PRDCD:NO::P18_SELECTED:2) has Romney leading in OH-01, 02, 06, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14 and 16 - 9 of the 16 CDs.  Santorum leads in the rest.  Which CDs didn't Santorum file a slate of delegates for?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 11:17:22 PM
Under 4000!

Of course, 40% of Cuyahoga is still out :)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on March 06, 2012, 11:17:24 PM
while everyone is obsessing about Ohio, Romney just picked up ALL of Idaho's 32 delegates


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 11:17:36 PM
CNN won't call it because they cannot be 100% sure that what came before in Cuyahoga did not shoot Mitt's wad; CNN cannot as it were exclude to a 100% certainty that what  is left is not heavy with home schooling fundamentalist types who will go heavy for Rick. Whatever.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Politico on March 06, 2012, 11:18:17 PM
How will Rick spin this Ohio result? Will he publicly urge Newt to drop out?

Santorum is the only candidate to not finish above 40% in any state (unless AK or ND surprises), so why should Gingrich drop out? Gingrich nearly got 50% in the second biggest state tonight...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 11:19:19 PM
Ohio SoS website (http://vote.sos.state.oh.us/pls/enrpublic/f?p=130:18:0:PRDCD:NO::P18_SELECTED:2) has Romney leading in OH-01, 02, 06, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14 and 16 - 9 of the 16 CDs.  Santorum leads in the rest.  Which CDs didn't Santorum file a slate of delegates for?

If their OH-06 is the Ohio River CD, that strikes me as amazing. Are you sure? That is Santorum central.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 06, 2012, 11:20:15 PM
It's over, but the media won't make it official until some point between now and midnight.

Congratulations, Winfield!

It's a done deal.  

Congratulations Politico.

So maybe a 20,000 vote margin for Mitt?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Politico on March 06, 2012, 11:20:28 PM
:)

I'm very pleased with tonight - an upset in Tennessee would have been great, but still, it's going to be hard for anyone but Romney to spin this as a win. Hopefully it'll be able to hold him through till April 24th. It should.

Over 50% of the delegates tonight in a four-way race = ROMNEY VICTORY


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 11:21:05 PM
How will Rick spin this Ohio result? Will he publicly urge Newt to drop out?

Santorum is the only candidate to not finish above 40% in any state (unless AK or ND surprises), so why should Gingrich drop out? Gingrich nearly got 50% in the second biggest state tonight...

Actually I thought Rick ran rather impressively everywhere relatively speaking - even in Georgia, where Newt's margin was pedestrian really. It was Newt who collapsed, which was why TN was not that close for example. (Thompson's endorsement of Newt obviously did not sweep his former constituents off their feet obviously.) Newt was invisible in Ohio. In Mass, he got 4%.  :P


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 06, 2012, 11:22:37 PM
while everyone is obsessing about Ohio, Romney just picked up ALL of Idaho's 32 delegates

Thanks Idaho!  :D


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 06, 2012, 11:23:37 PM
Cuyahoga County with about 80% in:

Mitt Romney ( REP )   34658
Rick Santorum ( REP )   21620

That should net Romney another 2613 votes from what the AP is showing.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 06, 2012, 11:24:59 PM
Look at the calendar... even Romney winning Ohio tonight won't change the fact that Santorum and Gingrich will win Alabama, Mississippi, Kansas and the Missouri caucus. That's four non-Romney wins before we get back to territory he will be competitive in. This thing will go on until May at minimum.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 06, 2012, 11:25:24 PM
Ohio SoS website (http://vote.sos.state.oh.us/pls/enrpublic/f?p=130:18:0:PRDCD:NO::P18_SELECTED:2) has Romney leading in OH-01, 02, 06, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14 and 16 - 9 of the 16 CDs.  Santorum leads in the rest.  Which CDs didn't Santorum file a slate of delegates for?

If their OH-06 is the Ohio River CD, that strikes me as amazing. Are you sure? That is Santorum central.

That's what the Ohio SoS' website is showing.  It also doesn't even list Santorum in the OH-06 tally at all, placing Gingrich in second, so I wouldn't rely on it.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on March 06, 2012, 11:26:01 PM
:)

I'm very pleased with tonight - an upset in Tennessee would have been great, but still, it's going to be hard for anyone but Romney to spin this as a win. Hopefully it'll be able to hold him through till April 24th. It should.

Over 50% of the delegates tonight in a four-way race = ROMNEY VICTORY

This is almost the definition of a Pyrrhic victory.  Romney is just a terrible candidate.  He can't even seal the deal against Santorum, Gingrich and Paul, and has to spend untold millions of his donors' money just to eek out small wins.   Even most Republicans can't stand him.  


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Politico on March 06, 2012, 11:26:26 PM
How will Rick spin this Ohio result? Will he publicly urge Newt to drop out?

Santorum is the only candidate to not finish above 40% in any state (unless AK or ND surprises), so why should Gingrich drop out? Gingrich nearly got 50% in the second biggest state tonight...

Actually I thought Rick ran rather impressively everywhere relatively speaking - even in Georgia, where Newt's margin was pedestrian really. It was Newt who collapsed, which was TN was not that close for example. Newt was invisible in Ohio. In Mass, he got 4%.  :P

All we need from Newt is just enough of a performance to somehow get Mississippi and Alabama in the Romney column. If that happens, it would be the nail in the coffin. It would be nice. I do not think it is going to happen, but it looks more likely after seeing Tennessee/Oklahoma, and factoring in Newt's momentum boost from Georgia. There is a 10-20% probability whereas earlier tonight I would have put it at 5%.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ajb on March 06, 2012, 11:26:36 PM
It has to be a disappointing night for all of the candidates.
Gingrich won Georgia, but underperformed everywhere else.
Paul hit 40% in Virginia, by far his best performance yet, but still hasn't won a state.
Santorum won TN and OK, and came very close in Ohio, but won't win Ohio.
Romney won ID, VT, MA and VA, which gives him a bunch of delegates. Winning Ohio is nice, but it's not like he's going to get a lot of momentum out of that, especially not in KS, MS, AL and LA. He's got a long month ahead of him.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: 5280 on March 06, 2012, 11:26:38 PM
So when is Gingrich going to drop out? Tomorrow, hopefully soon Im guessing.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 11:26:57 PM
Look at the calendar... even Romney winning Ohio tonight won't change the fact that Santorum and Gingrich will win Alabama, Mississippi, Kansas and the Missouri caucus. That's four non-Romney wins before we get back to territory he will be competitive in. This thing will go on until May at minimum.

I've got a feeling this won't be decided until California votes in early June.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 11:27:15 PM
Ohio SoS website (http://vote.sos.state.oh.us/pls/enrpublic/f?p=130:18:0:PRDCD:NO::P18_SELECTED:2) has Romney leading in OH-01, 02, 06, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14 and 16 - 9 of the 16 CDs.  Santorum leads in the rest.  Which CDs didn't Santorum file a slate of delegates for?

If their OH-06 is the Ohio River CD, that strikes me as amazing. Are you sure? That is Santorum central.

That's what the Ohio SoS' website is showing.  It also doesn't even list Santorum in the OH-06 tally at all, placing Gingrich in second, so I wouldn't rely on it.

Is it showing vote totals, or just calling the CD's? Maybe they called OH-06 for Mittens because Rick did not file any delegate slate.  If so, that is "unfortunate."  :)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 11:27:26 PM
No, 20,000 votes aren't very likely. It's about 5,500 now, and I can hardly see Cuyahoga more than doubling this. BTW, recent margin increase is due to a dump from Delaware.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 11:28:03 PM
So when is Gingrich going to drop out? Tomorrow, hopefully soon Im guessing.

Bring your lunch, it could be a while before he drops out.  He's got 5 good states ahead of him.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Politico on March 06, 2012, 11:29:05 PM
No, 20,000 votes aren't very likely. It's about 5,500 now, and I can hardly see Cuyahoga more than doubling this. BTW, recent margin increase is due to a dump from Delaware.

I think this is more likely than 20,000 votes. Hopefully Romney gets at least enough to prevent a recount.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 11:30:14 PM
I'm not really sure what to say about Obama's performance in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 06, 2012, 11:30:42 PM
Is it showing vote totals, or just calling the CD's? Maybe they called OH-06 for Mittens because Rick did not file any delegate slate.  If so, that is "unfortunate."  :)

It's showing vote totals:

President - District 06 (R)
Candidate / Issue   % of Votes   Number Of Votes
Romney, Mitt (R)   40.80%   26,572
Gingrich, Newt (R)   31.42%   20,461
Paul, Ron (R)   19.21%   12,511
Perry, Rick (R)   5.74%   3,738
Huntsman, Jon (R)   2.83%   1,840

AP is reporting the same erroneous numbers.

I don't know whether Santorum filed a delegate slate in that CD.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on March 06, 2012, 11:31:07 PM
If Santorum performed better with Catholics or College Educated or Women, he would have won OH.

If he just hadn't gone down the road of education snobs, barfing at Kennedy speech and talkingcontraception, he would have won MI and OH and he would really have a shot. But I guess Rick's got to be Rick.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Politico on March 06, 2012, 11:31:56 PM

I'll celebrate by eating an Idaho potato tomorrow night! Hopefully I can couple it with Alaskan salmon rather than Boston clam chowder...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 11:32:20 PM
Is it showing vote totals, or just calling the CD's? Maybe they called OH-06 for Mittens because Rick did not file any delegate slate.  If so, that is "unfortunate."  :)

It's showing vote totals:

President - District 06 (R)
Candidate / Issue   % of Votes   Number Of Votes
Romney, Mitt (R)   40.80%   26,572
Gingrich, Newt (R)   31.42%   20,461
Paul, Ron (R)   19.21%   12,511
Perry, Rick (R)   5.74%   3,738
Huntsman, Jon (R)   2.83%   1,840

AP is reporting the same erroneous numbers.

I don't know whether Santorum filed a delegate slate in that CD.

He didn't. That was his major cf, because it should be his strongest CD. Crazy world we live in.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: platypeanArchcow on March 06, 2012, 11:32:59 PM
All we need from Newt is just enough of a performance to somehow get Mississippi and Alabama in the Romney column. If that happens, it would be the nail in the coffin. It would be nice. I do not think it is going to happen, but it looks more likely after seeing Tennessee/Oklahoma, and factoring in Newt's momentum boost from Georgia. There is a 10-20% probability whereas earlier tonight I would have put it at 5%.

I wouldn't bet on it.  In Tennessee and Oklahoma, Mitt got less than a third of the three-man vote.  Alabama and Mississippi are unlikely to be any better for him.  So if Rick and Newt split the vote exactly, all Mitt will get out of it is an embarrassing third.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 11:33:12 PM
I'm not really sure what to say about Obama's performance in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary.

If Mitt Romney ends up winning the nomination, something will have to give in Oklahoma.  Keep in mind, the Republican has won all 77 counties in both 2004 and 2008.  Looking at the results tonight, we are not that fond of Mitt Romney, but we are very disappointed in Barack Obama.  Will Mitt Romney be good enough to sweep all 77 Oklahoma counties, or will Barack Obama win a few counties?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: mondale84 on March 06, 2012, 11:33:34 PM
How will Rick spin this Ohio result? Will he publicly urge Newt to drop out?

Santorum is the only candidate to not finish above 40% in any state (unless AK or ND surprises), so why should Gingrich drop out? Gingrich nearly got 50% in the second biggest state tonight...

Actually I thought Rick ran rather impressively everywhere relatively speaking - even in Georgia, where Newt's margin was pedestrian really. It was Newt who collapsed, which was TN was not that close for example. Newt was invisible in Ohio. In Mass, he got 4%.  :P

All we need from Newt is just enough of a performance to somehow get Mississippi and Alabama in the Romney column. If that happens, it would be the nail in the coffin. It would be nice. I do not think it is going to happen, but it looks more likely after seeing Tennessee/Oklahoma, and factoring in Newt's momentum boost from Georgia. There is a 10-20% probability whereas earlier tonight I would have put it at 5%.

Romney ain't winning Alabama or Mississippi...not happening...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 06, 2012, 11:33:54 PM
After the dust settles tomorrow, this will be seen as a Romney victory. He will get a smidgen of a momentum. The southern primaries will prolong the event and Romney will have to wait for more favorable states to drudge on to the nomination.

Romney stays front-runner.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 11:34:41 PM
Mittens at the moment has 76% of the votes in Idaho. I guess that is what happens if you get all of the LDS and half the rest. Hey it rhymes! :)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: mondale84 on March 06, 2012, 11:35:00 PM
I'm not really sure what to say about Obama's performance in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary.

If Mitt Romney ends up winning the nomination, something will have to give in Oklahoma.  Keep in mind, the Republican has won all 77 counties in both 2004 and 2008.  Looking at the results tonight, we are not that fond of Mitt Romney, but we are very disappointed in Barack Obama.  Will Mitt Romney be good enough to sweep all 77 Oklahoma counties, or will Barack Obama win a few counties?

Obama will lose every county in the state by AT LEAST 15 points...you heard it here first...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ag on March 06, 2012, 11:35:18 PM
Oh, you guys in Oklahoma will troop out to vote unanimously for Romney in November, no doubt of that.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Politico on March 06, 2012, 11:35:54 PM
All we need from Newt is just enough of a performance to somehow get Mississippi and Alabama in the Romney column. If that happens, it would be the nail in the coffin. It would be nice. I do not think it is going to happen, but it looks more likely after seeing Tennessee/Oklahoma, and factoring in Newt's momentum boost from Georgia. There is a 10-20% probability whereas earlier tonight I would have put it at 5%.

I wouldn't bet on it.  In Tennessee and Oklahoma, Mitt got less than a third of the three-man vote.  Alabama and Mississippi are unlikely to be any better for him.  So if Rick and Newt split the vote exactly, all Mitt will get out of it is an embarrassing third.

In Tennessee, take 10% from Santorum and give it to Gingrich and Romney wins.

Romney could have won Oklahoma had he visited and spent resources there.

I still think it is unlikely that Romney will win Mississippi/Alabama, but the odds have doubled or more after Gingrich's big victory tonight.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: 5280 on March 06, 2012, 11:36:23 PM
I'm not really sure what to say about Obama's performance in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary.

If Mitt Romney ends up winning the nomination, something will have to give in Oklahoma.  Keep in mind, the Republican has won all 77 counties in both 2004 and 2008.  Looking at the results tonight, we are not that fond of Mitt Romney, but we are very disappointed in Barack Obama.  Will Mitt Romney be good enough to sweep all 77 Oklahoma counties, or will Barack Obama win a few counties?
Im sure he could win all the counties, but with a less % but enough to be ahead of Obama.  


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 11:37:22 PM
I'm not really sure what to say about Obama's performance in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary.

If Mitt Romney ends up winning the nomination, something will have to give in Oklahoma.  Keep in mind, the Republican has won all 77 counties in both 2004 and 2008.  Looking at the results tonight, we are not that fond of Mitt Romney, but we are very disappointed in Barack Obama.  Will Mitt Romney be good enough to sweep all 77 Oklahoma counties, or will Barack Obama win a few counties?

Until I read your last sentence, I was thinking you might be wondering if Mittens could carry OK in November, in which event I was going to suggest that you need to up your meds. :P


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 11:38:04 PM
I'm not really sure what to say about Obama's performance in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary.

If Mitt Romney ends up winning the nomination, something will have to give in Oklahoma.  Keep in mind, the Republican has won all 77 counties in both 2004 and 2008.  Looking at the results tonight, we are not that fond of Mitt Romney, but we are very disappointed in Barack Obama.  Will Mitt Romney be good enough to sweep all 77 Oklahoma counties, or will Barack Obama win a few counties?

Obama will lose every county in the state by AT LEAST 15 points...you heard it here first...

Probably not too far from accuracy.  If Obama ever visited here, he'd probably be picked off on the street.  Of course, I'm not sure Obama even knows where Oklahoma is.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: © tweed on March 06, 2012, 11:39:32 PM
I'm not really sure what to say about Obama's performance in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary.

“There are still Democrats who love innocent babies more than they love the party,” he said from his Tulsa campaign office. “(Obama’s) policies of murdering babies is going to deny him the White House.”

http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?subjectid=11&articleid=20120306_11_0_Presid559524


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 06, 2012, 11:40:37 PM
About 90% of Cuyahoga, per the county website:

Mitt Romney ( REP )   37819
Rick Santorum ( REP )   23157

That nets Romney 4,237 votes from the AP tally, which hasn't been updated for a while.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on March 06, 2012, 11:41:26 PM
Mittens at the moment has 76% of the votes in Idaho. I guess that is what happens if you get all of the LDS and half the rest. Hey it rhymes! :)

Romney is not getting half the rest. He's receiving a third of the rest, if he's lucky.

What I posted in the wrong thread: southeastern Idaho is the bloodbath that I expected it to be. I feel sorry for anyone who lives there, even Mormons dread the idea of going to BYU-Idaho instead of BYU-Provo.  May god have mercy on the souls of those bumpkins.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Politico on March 06, 2012, 11:44:11 PM
Gingrich is going to win almost 50% more delegates than Santorum tonight.

BTW, did Santorum robocall Democrats in North Dakota, Tennessee and Ohio?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 06, 2012, 11:44:11 PM
Revised Medina, per the county BoE website:

Mitt Romney         7447    40.80%
Rick Santorum         6374    34.92%

That nets Romney another 1,002 votes from the AP's tally.

No clue what percentage is reporting.  There are fewer precincts reporting than before.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on March 06, 2012, 11:44:52 PM
Quote
If he just hadn't gone down the road of education snobs, barfing at Kennedy speech and talking contraception, he would have won MI and OH and he would really have a shot. But I guess Rick's got to be Rick.

Uh, he's already 'really got a shot'. ;)

But go on, tell us how he doesnt'.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on March 06, 2012, 11:46:37 PM
I'm not really sure what to say about Obama's performance in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary.

If Mitt Romney ends up winning the nomination, something will have to give in Oklahoma.  Keep in mind, the Republican has won all 77 counties in both 2004 and 2008.  Looking at the results tonight, we are not that fond of Mitt Romney, but we are very disappointed in Barack Obama.  Will Mitt Romney be good enough to sweep all 77 Oklahoma counties, or will Barack Obama win a few counties?

Obama will lose every county in the state by AT LEAST 15 points...you heard it here first...

Probably not too far from accuracy.  If Obama ever visited here, he'd probably be picked off on the street.  Of course, I'm not sure Obama even knows where Oklahoma is.

Stay classy, kinda like Dallas November 1963...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 06, 2012, 11:47:10 PM
I'm not sure why the networks aren't calling it already.  Almost everything that's out is in a Romney county.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: rbt48 on March 06, 2012, 11:48:02 PM
I think Romney has gotten a big enough lead in OH - 12 to claim a 10 to 6 lead in CDs.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 06, 2012, 11:49:23 PM
It has to be a disappointing night for all of the candidates.
Gingrich won Georgia, but underperformed everywhere else.
Paul hit 40% in Virginia, by far his best performance yet, but still hasn't won a state.
Santorum won TN and OK, and came very close in Ohio, but won't win Ohio.
Romney won ID, VT, MA and VA, which gives him a bunch of delegates. Winning Ohio is nice, but it's not like he's going to get a lot of momentum out of that, especially not in KS, MS, AL and LA. He's got a long month ahead of him.

Gingrich got under 50% in GA, so he doesn't sweep the delegates.  Santorum, as of now, got less than 20% in GA so he gets no delegates.

The only good news for Santorum seems to be ND, so far.  

KS might become important.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 11:50:36 PM
Santorum wins with 39.9945% in North Dakota. One more vote and he would have been at 40%.

THANK YOU BASED GOD FOR YOUR BOUNTY OF ATLAS PREDICTION POINTS


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on March 06, 2012, 11:56:16 PM
I'm not really sure what to say about Obama's performance in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary.

If Mitt Romney ends up winning the nomination, something will have to give in Oklahoma.  Keep in mind, the Republican has won all 77 counties in both 2004 and 2008.  Looking at the results tonight, we are not that fond of Mitt Romney, but we are very disappointed in Barack Obama.  Will Mitt Romney be good enough to sweep all 77 Oklahoma counties, or will Barack Obama win a few counties?

Obama will lose every county in the state by AT LEAST 15 points...you heard it here first...

Probably not too far from accuracy.  If Obama ever visited here, he'd probably be picked off on the street.  Of course, I'm not sure Obama even knows where Oklahoma is.

Stay classy, kinda like Dallas November 1963...

Probably not the best choice of words, but I was trying to refer to a favorite pastime of a lot of Oklahoman's, hunting.  In all seriousness, though, the citizens of Oklahoma are very warm and hearty and very hospitable.  We would welcome Obama in Oklahoma and would treat him well, except he would hear a lot of boos at his speeches.  We have the ability to disagree, yet treat well those who we disagree with.  We will make our voice heard at the ballot box.  Even the most liberal Democrat would be treated with a lot of hospitality in OKlahoma.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 06, 2012, 11:59:10 PM
CNN posts that Rick has 20% of the votes in Georgia, with 97% in, so a few delegates are hanging in the balance there.

And Mittens eks out the silver in OK over Rick.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 07, 2012, 12:05:46 AM
Who's excited to stay up and watch the Alaska caucus?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ajb on March 07, 2012, 12:08:30 AM
It has to be a disappointing night for all of the candidates.
Gingrich won Georgia, but underperformed everywhere else.
Paul hit 40% in Virginia, by far his best performance yet, but still hasn't won a state.
Santorum won TN and OK, and came very close in Ohio, but won't win Ohio.
Romney won ID, VT, MA and VA, which gives him a bunch of delegates. Winning Ohio is nice, but it's not like he's going to get a lot of momentum out of that, especially not in KS, MS, AL and LA. He's got a long month ahead of him.

Gingrich got under 50% in GA, so he doesn't sweep the delegates.  Santorum, as of now, got less than 20% in GA so he gets no delegates.

The only good news for Santorum seems to be ND, so far.  

KS might become important.
Santorum has really been underperforming, delegates-wise. Not only the Ohio debacle, but coming just short in GA, and all sorts of places, really.
I know he has a lean campagin team, but he needs his own David Plouffe if he's going to pull this off.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 07, 2012, 12:09:02 AM
CNN posts that Rick has 20% of the votes in Georgia, with 97% in, so a few delegates are hanging in the balance there.

Check Google, not CNN - Santorum is only at 19.6%, and therefore, outside of the threshold.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 12:10:43 AM
Cuyahoga all in on the county BoE website:
Mitt Romney ( REP )   40881
Rick Santorum ( REP )   24852

That nets Romney another 4,420 votes over the AP tally, giving him a 10K lead, if I've done the math right.  It's only a matter of time until the networks call it.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 07, 2012, 12:14:06 AM
CNN posts that Rick has 20% of the votes in Georgia, with 97% in, so a few delegates are hanging in the balance there.

Check Google, not CNN - Santorum is only at 19.6%, and therefore, outside of the threshold.

Ah, they round! They should not do that. So Mittens gets another couple of delegates. :)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: yourelection on March 07, 2012, 12:14:19 AM
Super Tuesday is pretty much wrapped up. Not going to wait for Alaska to come in.

My caption on the event is up on the blog (http://www.yourelection.net/2012/03/romney-better-than-santorum-on-super-tuesday/)

Time for me to sign off.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 07, 2012, 12:16:05 AM
In other news, Kaptur beats Dennis by 56% to 40%.  Congress will be a duller place, and I will mess his savoring his wife, for whom I have a fancy. :(


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 07, 2012, 12:16:31 AM

Santorum has really been underperforming, delegates-wise. Not only the Ohio debacle, but coming just short in GA, and all sorts of places, really.
I know he has a lean campagin team, but he needs his own David Plouffe if he's going to pull this off.

I think this showed a weakening of Santorum, in terms of election results.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 12:18:58 AM
Additional Montgomery nets Romney another 534 votes.  That puts Romney's lead up to about 11-12K.  Fox News said the Romney camp is bitching that he's up by 12K and the race should be called already.  It seems like he is up about 12K with little left outstanding.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 07, 2012, 12:20:40 AM
Super Tuesday is pretty much wrapped up. Not going to wait for Alaska to come in.

My caption on the event is up on the blog (http://www.yourelection.net/2012/03/romney-better-than-santorum-on-super-tuesday/)

Time for me to sign off.

Nicely written. The thing is, when you game this, with assumptions that are cautious for Mittens, he gets to within a 100 delegates of a majority at the end. And he has those extra 100 from the establishment "uncommitted" delegates. So the odds are low (something rather major will have to happen to dramatically change the game), that Mittens will not have an absolute majority, and even if he doesn't, it is hard to believe that everyone else will gang up on him and give the nomination to someone else. So it is really an issue of how long this goes on, and what it portends, plus or minus or wash, for the General election.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ajb on March 07, 2012, 12:21:48 AM

Santorum has really been underperforming, delegates-wise. Not only the Ohio debacle, but coming just short in GA, and all sorts of places, really.
I know he has a lean campagin team, but he needs his own David Plouffe if he's going to pull this off.

I think this showed a weakening of Santorum, in terms of election results.
In many ways, though I don't think Romney comes out of the night looking that good, either. I'm pretty sure he'll win the nomination, but he's not looking like a terribly strong frontrunner, and he's got a pretty ugly few weeks of primaries ahead of him. Tonight won't help him win MS or AL.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ajb on March 07, 2012, 12:26:14 AM
Super Tuesday is pretty much wrapped up. Not going to wait for Alaska to come in.

My caption on the event is up on the blog (http://www.yourelection.net/2012/03/romney-better-than-santorum-on-super-tuesday/)

Time for me to sign off.

Nicely written. The thing is, when you game this, with assumptions that are cautious for Mittens, he gets to within a 100 delegates of a majority at the end. And he has those extra 100 from the establishment "uncommitted" delegates. So the odds are low (something rather major will have to happen to dramatically change the game), that Mittens will not have an absolute majority, and even if he doesn't, it is hard to believe that everyone else will gang up on him and give the nomination to someone else. So it is really an issue of how long this goes on, and what it portends, plus or minus or wash, for the General election.

His rivals have to try for Hillary Clinton's strategy in 2008. She likewise knew that she couldn't win a majority of pledged delegates after February, but hoped to convince superdelegates to put her over the top by showing that Obama was unelectable. Her position was in most ways stronger, in that she was closer to Obama in delegate totals, and it was a one-on-one race, and she was the original establishment choice. Still didn't work for her.
Probably won't work for Santorum or Gingrich, either, unless they can make a convincing case that Romney is unelectable.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: retromike22 on March 07, 2012, 12:30:54 AM
Romney projected the winner of Ohio -AP


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 12:31:18 AM
AP tally has finally caught up with the county BoE sites.  Romney +12,000.  

This should be called.  What's left in Stark, Brown and Medina counties simply isn't enough for Santorum to make up the difference - even if all 3 counties were Santorum counties.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 12:33:18 AM
CNN calls Ohio for Romney.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 07, 2012, 12:35:24 AM
Do we have any idea what is happening in Alaska or when we'll get results or anything???


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 07, 2012, 12:43:12 AM
OK delegate breakdown from AP:
14 Santorum, 13 Romney, 13 Gingrich = wash

GA delegate breakdown from SoS:
45 Gingrich, 14 Romney, 2 Santorum.  5 CDs still out.  Mitt leads in the two Atlanta black CDs and Newt has majorities in two others, so probably 10-4-1 when all is said and done.

The TN delegate system is strange, and is destined to f-k Santorum, except that things can be changed later, maybe.  I read the rules here, and the CD count is actually based on named delegates on the ballot, which Newt dominates, but as mentioned, the delegates are not bound now.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 07, 2012, 12:46:19 AM

CNN explained their delay by saying there were 30,000 uncounted late absentees and provisional ballots, and they finally decided given the 12,000 vote margin for Mittens in the bag, that it needed to be 60,000 left rather than 30,000 for Rick to have prayer, and given the 30,000 vote uncounted deficit, it was mathematically certain that Mittens had won.

Again, CNN gets an A+ for its coverage.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 07, 2012, 12:46:44 AM
Come on, Alaska. I'm tired.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 12:47:44 AM
Do we have any idea what is happening in Alaska or when we'll get results or anything???

Alaska's caucuses just closed 45 minutes ago.  They are more like primaries than caucuses, really, with polls open for 4 hours until 8PM local time.  No results yet, even on the Anchorage newspaper's website or the Alaska Republican party's website (which doesn't look like it will have results).



Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 07, 2012, 12:48:07 AM
Fox CNN calls Ohio for Romney.

Rove projects more than 200 delegates for Romney tonight (exclusive of AK), more than all the others combined.

Go Mittens!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB1kp9adYYE&feature=related


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Gustaf on March 07, 2012, 12:51:12 AM
In other news, Kaptur beats Dennis by 56% to 40%.  Congress will be a duller place, and I will mess his savoring his wife, for whom I have a fancy. :(

You dirty dog.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 12:51:25 AM
OH-12 flipped back to Santorum with all in, giving Romney a 9-7 CD lead again.  That will likely be the final result.  It likely would have been 8-8 had Santorum filed a delegate slate in OH-06.

Edited to add: Or not.  The AP and SoS tallies differ.  It might still be 10-6.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 07, 2012, 12:57:06 AM
Paul wins Kodiak with 69 votes to Romney's/Santorum's 67 votes. One vote was "undecided."


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Torie on March 07, 2012, 12:57:22 AM
In other news, Kaptur beats Dennis by 56% to 40%.  Congress will be a duller place, and I will mess his savoring his wife, for whom I have a fancy. :(

You dirty dog.

Unfortunate, or fortunate, typo, depending on your point of view. :P


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 07, 2012, 12:58:01 AM
In very early results, Romney leading in AK.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 01:10:12 AM
It will be tough to tell how Alaska is unfolding since we don't know where the votes are coming from.  The caucus sites were laid out on a Alaska House District level basis.  Too bad the AP isn't reporting results as such.  (One at large district was in Washington DC.)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Miles on March 07, 2012, 01:11:39 AM
The AP has Romney up 37-26 over Santorum with 8% in.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 07, 2012, 01:13:36 AM
Why is the Idaho panhandle taking so long to report?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: doktorb on March 07, 2012, 01:14:48 AM
Politico.com has Romney 38,Santorum 26 in AK

But that is, in real terms, 601 votes over 482 so don't call it too significant just yet.....


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 01:16:40 AM
Why is the Idaho panhandle taking so long to report?

A good portion of it is in the Pacific Time Zone.  Perhaps that has something to do with it.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 07, 2012, 01:19:09 AM
AK @ 16%, Romney 32, Paul 25%, Santorum 23%.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on March 07, 2012, 01:20:41 AM
Why is the Idaho panhandle taking so long to report?

A good portion of it is in the Pacific Time Zone.  Perhaps that has something to do with it.

All of it is in the Pacific time zone and turnout was sky high. The caucuses only finished a hour and thirty minutes ago in Kootenai County.

Check out out that clear divide between north Idaho and the south. Why are we in the same state, again? I was expecting Romney to do really poorly up here but not this poorly. Paul is won an absolute majority in both Boundary and Latah County. Romney didn't receive one vote in Clearwater County (lol).


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Miles on March 07, 2012, 01:23:37 AM
And we have 12.6% of AK in:

MR- 32%
RP- 25%
RS- 23%
NG- 20%


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Meeker on March 07, 2012, 01:25:23 AM
Why is the Idaho panhandle taking so long to report?

A good portion of it is in the Pacific Time Zone.  Perhaps that has something to do with it.

All of it is in the Pacific time zone and turnout was sky high. The caucuses only finished a hour and thirty minutes ago in Kootenai County.

Check out out that clear divide between north Idaho and the south. Why are we in the same state, again? I was expecting Romney to do really poorly up here but not this poorly. Paul is won an absolute majority in both Boundary and Latah County. Romney didn't receive one vote in Clearwater County (lol).

The Idaho GOP is using some sort of bizarre method whereby they hold a runoff between the top two candidates at each individual caucus site if no one reaches 50% of the vote there. That's what occurred in the several counties where you see only two candidates receiving votes.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 07, 2012, 01:26:12 AM
AK @ 16%, Romney 32, Paul 25%, Santorum 23%.

And Gingrich at 20%! Four-way race anyone?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: doktorb on March 07, 2012, 01:28:03 AM
AK @ 16%, Romney 32, Paul 25%, Santorum 23%.

And Gingrich at 20%! Four-way race anyone?

Fair play to the 7 voters who went out of their way to vote "undecided" at this stage in proceedings.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 07, 2012, 01:33:28 AM
If Paul doesn't win Alaska, I hope Gingrich does. That'd be even more hilarious in some ways.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Meeker on March 07, 2012, 01:43:41 AM
Naturally the top story on the Anchorage Daily News is about the Iditarod and not the caucus. Gotta love Alaska.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Alcon on March 07, 2012, 01:46:55 AM
AK @ 16%, Romney 32, Paul 25%, Santorum 23%.

And Gingrich at 20%! Four-way race anyone?

Fair play to the 7 voters who went out of their way to vote "undecided" at this stage in proceedings.

My experience is that those voters tend to be less undecided, and more either protest votes ("none of these idiots"), or even more often, neutral votes ("I'll support the eventual party nominee.")


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 07, 2012, 01:47:23 AM
Big Update:

Romney 2698 (33%)
Santorum 2418 (30%)
Paul 1691 (21%)
Gingrich 1263 (15%)

68% in


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 01:48:43 AM
Big Update:

Romney 2698 (33%)
Santorum 2418 (30%)
Paul 1691 (21%)
Gingrich 1263 (15%)

68% in

AP/Google has the same numbers with 31.1% in (on a precincts reported basis).  Who says 68%?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 07, 2012, 01:49:07 AM
Big Update:

Romney 2698 (33%)
Santorum 2418 (30%)
Paul 1691 (21%)
Gingrich 1263 (15%)

68% in

AP/Google has the same numbers with 31.1% in (on a precincts reported basis).  Who says 68%?

CNN


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Meeker on March 07, 2012, 01:49:20 AM
Paul won't win a single state this entire primary season and will come in dead last in delegates. He and his supporters will go down in history as an irrelevant, bizarre footnote.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 07, 2012, 01:49:34 AM
If Paul doesn't win Alaska, I hope Gingrich does. That'd be even more hilarious in some ways.

Well, I jinxed it... looks like a Romney-Santorum race now.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 01:50:40 AM
Big Update:

Romney 2698 (33%)
Santorum 2418 (30%)
Paul 1691 (21%)
Gingrich 1263 (15%)

68% in

AP/Google has the same numbers with 31.1% in (on a precincts reported basis).  Who says 68%?

CNN

Could be 68% on a population-weighted basis.  The far-flung bush precincts have a history of reporting later.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 07, 2012, 01:50:58 AM
Ron Paul will be known as Rand Paul's father.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 07, 2012, 01:51:11 AM
Paul won't win a single state this entire primary season and will come in dead last in delegates. He and his supporters will go down in history as an irrelevant, bizarre footnote.

One can hope.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 07, 2012, 01:51:51 AM
Big Update:

Romney 2698 (33%)
Santorum 2418 (30%)
Paul 1691 (21%)
Gingrich 1263 (15%)

68% in

AP/Google has the same numbers with 31.1% in (on a precincts reported basis).  Who says 68%?

CNN

Could be 68% on a population-weighted basis.  The far-flung bush precincts have a history of reporting later.

Would be nice if someone would at least give us district results.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: doktorb on March 07, 2012, 01:52:57 AM
Paul won't win a single state this entire primary season and will come in dead last in delegates. He and his supporters will go down in history as an irrelevant, bizarre footnote.


And the nominee for "Best Attempt at Trolling Mid-Thread" goes to...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Meeker on March 07, 2012, 01:57:00 AM
Paul won't win a single state this entire primary season and will come in dead last in delegates. He and his supporters will go down in history as an irrelevant, bizarre footnote.


And the nominee for "Best Attempt at Trolling Mid-Thread" goes to...

Just pointing out the facts. Paul has been an epic failure this cycle even based upon the expectations that his own campaign set for him.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: redcommander on March 07, 2012, 02:02:55 AM
I don't see how anyone defeats Romney at this point. The rest of the candidates are just going to be trolling from now on.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 07, 2012, 02:04:39 AM
Numbers increase, but percentages don't change:

R 3377 (33%)
S 3030 (30%)
P 2200 (22%)
G 1505 (15%)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 07, 2012, 02:05:41 AM
What percentage is now in?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 07, 2012, 02:07:56 AM

CNN still says 68%. AP says 79%.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 07, 2012, 02:08:14 AM
Good lord, Ron Paul is made of fail.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 02:10:02 AM
From the Fairbanks Daily News Miner (http://newsminer.com/view/full_story/17763485/article-Romney-takes-early-lead-in-Alaska-presidential-preference-poll?instance=home_news_window_left_top_2):


Among Interior Alaska voters who cast their ballots in North Pole, Paul was the preferred candidate. . . .

In Fairbanks, Ron Paul had 451 votes, Santorum took 243, Romney had 233 and Gingrich had 105. . . .

Complete results are expected to come in by 10 p.m.  [Already passed]


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 07, 2012, 02:18:59 AM
So basically Ron Paul's last hope at this point is a freak Hawaii victory...


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on March 07, 2012, 02:20:07 AM
we keep hearing about how Paul is about to win one, and then not even close.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 07, 2012, 02:21:59 AM
If Romney wins Alaska, my Atlas Predictions would be all correct (except the percentages).

But it would have been better for the race if Romney lost OH.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 07, 2012, 02:27:34 AM
85% of AK in:

R 4167 (33%)
S 3704 (29%)
P 3033 (24%)
G 1798 (14%)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on March 07, 2012, 02:28:07 AM
That makes 4 states that Newt has won for Romney.

Newt has only managed to deliver two.

He just crossed into 'liability' status.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 02:29:19 AM
85% of AK in:

R 4167 (33%)
S 3704 (29%)
P 3033 (24%)
G 1798 (14%)

Unless what's out is in the Mat-Su Valley or Kenai, Romney wins this.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: ajb on March 07, 2012, 02:30:04 AM
85% of AK in:

R 4167 (33%)
S 3704 (29%)
P 3033 (24%)
G 1798 (14%)
Is this the moment for the state party to stop counting the ballots, and declare that Romney has won Alaska?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 07, 2012, 02:32:22 AM
Called for Romney.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 02:32:31 AM
Fox News projects Romney wins Alaska.



Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: redcommander on March 07, 2012, 02:35:50 AM
Sanity wins the day again in the Republican primary!!!!! Palin must be hitting herself on the head for supporting Gingrich.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 02:40:04 AM
Romney won OK-05, with Santorum placing second.  Santorum won the other 4 CDs.  Gingrich came in second in 3 of those 4 CDs.    Assuming the Green Papers is correct, the 15 Oklahoma CD-level delegates should be allocated Santorum 9, Romney 3, Gingrich 3.   The 25 At-Large delegates will likely be allocated Santorum 9, Romney 8, Gingrich 8 - though it depends on the rounding rules.   So Santorum 18, Romney 11, Gingrich 11 seems like the most likely Oklahoma outcome.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 07, 2012, 02:51:32 AM
The AP says 14-13-13 in Oklahoma, I wonder where their numbers are coming from.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 07, 2012, 02:55:40 AM
I'm pleased to see that PPP is producing accurate polls again, after their crappy caucus polls and their MI poll (which predicted Santorum, but was within the MoE).


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 02:59:02 AM
The AP says 14-13-13 in Oklahoma, I wonder where their numbers are coming from.

It could be a different interpretation of the rules.  The Green Papers, says:

-If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote or only one candidate receives 15% or more of the vote, that candidate receives 3 delegates.
-Otherwise, if more than 1 candidate receives 15% of the vote, the candidate receiving the most votes receives 2 delegates and the candidate receiving the second most votes receives 1 delegate.
-Otherwise, the top 3 vote-getters receiving 15% or more of the vote each receive 1 delegate.

It could mean that if 3 candidates get more than 15%, each get 1 CD-level delegate.  If that's the case, the 15 CD delegates are split 5 a piece, which would give us the AP's results.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 07, 2012, 03:10:12 AM
Kootenai County still hasn't reported yet. According to the CDA Press, Santorum won the first round of balloting there with 35%, but no word on the final tally yet.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 07, 2012, 04:53:43 AM
The TN delegate system is strange, and is destined to f-k Santorum, except that things can be changed later, maybe.  I read the rules here, and the CD count is actually based on named delegates on the ballot, which Newt dominates, but as mentioned, the delegates are not bound now.

As Erc explains here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145763.msg3200303#msg3200303

and here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145763.msg3210230#msg3210230

the delegates do in fact seem to be bound by the results of the primary.  So, even though Santorum didn't have his own delegate slate there, the relevant proportion of the delegates he's entitled to from the primary vote are still obliged to vote for him at the convention.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Gustaf on March 07, 2012, 05:04:56 AM
I'm pleased with the fact that I'm yet to see a prediction that did better than mine on points. ;)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 07, 2012, 09:42:07 AM
The TN delegate system is strange, and is destined to f-k Santorum, except that things can be changed later, maybe.  I read the rules here, and the CD count is actually based on named delegates on the ballot, which Newt dominates, but as mentioned, the delegates are not bound now.

As Erc explains here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145763.msg3200303#msg3200303

and here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145763.msg3210230#msg3210230

the delegates do in fact seem to be bound by the results of the primary.  So, even though Santorum didn't have his own delegate slate there, the relevant proportion of the delegates he's entitled to from the primary vote are still obliged to vote for him at the convention.

There is no disagreement that the at-large delegates are bound to the winner of the primary split proportionally to whomever meets the 20% threshold.

Without looking at the video, I cannot agree with Erc's interpretation of the rules, and no lawyer would, not to mention that it does not fit with the rest of the system.  The rule says that you can fill a delegate spot when it become vacant.  But this language presumes that a delegate has vacated in the first place.  Since Santorum had no delegates in place "in the first instance", the rule cannot apply.  After all, delegates have already been elected via the primary.

It seems to me that there are two ways that Santorum can get the delegates.  One, if the state party bounds them to the actual results, something which is not explicitly stated in the rules.  Two, if Santorum can convince the elected delegates to vote for him based on the actual results, or force them to vacate.  Even then, the more reasonable interpretation of the rules seems to be that the vacated delegates must be replaced by the person whom they support.

FWIW, according to TN SOS, the delegates elected support the following candidates: TN-1 (3 Newt), TN-2 (3 Romney), TN-3 (3 Newt), TN-4 (2 Romney, 1 Newt), TN-5 (2 Romney, 1 Newt), TN-6 (3 Newt), TN-7 (2 Newt, 1 Romney), TN-8 (3 Newt), TN-9 (3 Romney), so 16 Newt, 11 Romney.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 07, 2012, 09:47:44 AM
The AP says 14-13-13 in Oklahoma, I wonder where their numbers are coming from.

It could be a different interpretation of the rules.  The Green Papers, says:

-If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote or only one candidate receives 15% or more of the vote, that candidate receives 3 delegates.
-Otherwise, if more than 1 candidate receives 15% of the vote, the candidate receiving the most votes receives 2 delegates and the candidate receiving the second most votes receives 1 delegate.
-Otherwise, the top 3 vote-getters receiving 15% or more of the vote each receive 1 delegate.

It could mean that if 3 candidates get more than 15%, each get 1 CD-level delegate.  If that's the case, the 15 CD delegates are split 5 a piece, which would give us the AP's results.

Well, under your interpretation, it is implied that only of the candidates tied in actual raw votes would the third paragraph come into play.

The APs interpretation is that if only two candidates get over 15% does the second paragraph apply, otherwise if three candidates get over 15%, the third paragraph applies.

Which do you think makes more sense?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on March 07, 2012, 10:05:04 AM
Kootenai County still hasn't reported yet. According to the CDA Press, Santorum won the first round of balloting there with 35%, but no word on the final tally yet.

Romney came in third; the runoff was between Santorum and Paul.


Counties where Romney came in third:
Benewah
Kootenai
Idaho
Clearwater
Bonner
Boundary

Romney came in second in Shoshone because there are so few active Republicans there (Democrats regularly turnout 2 to 3 times more voters during primaries). The only people who voted for him there were Mormons.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on March 07, 2012, 12:04:03 PM
I'm glad I didn't get my family to vote for Santorum, since that would put him over 40% in ND and cost me a point. Though Paul lost their LD by only 5 votes...if I got all four of them to vote and to get two others to I could've flipped it, lol. BTW my mom reported a ton of calls and junk mail from the Romney campaign, and nothing from Santorum.

Some notable things in the results: http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results/2012/gop-primary/nd

-See that Romney LD north of Bismarck? That doesn't surprise me at all. Go look at that area on Google Street View if you want to see why.
-I find it amusing those two Santorum LDs in Fargo surrounded by the Paul LDs are easily explainable with the info provided on the map alone. Zoom if you want to see why.

The two things I don't understand: Paul winning Dickinson and Romney winning Minot. Especially the latter as it wasn't particularly close in the actual city.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on March 07, 2012, 12:05:34 PM
OK why did Santorum win Shelby County? Aren't the Memphis suburbs full of rich Republicans?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 07, 2012, 12:31:20 PM
So basically Ron Paul's last hope at this point is a freak Hawaii victory...

He should have a shot at Montana, theoretically.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: argentarius on March 07, 2012, 01:29:55 PM
So basically Ron Paul's last hope at this point is a freak Hawaii victory...

He should have a shot at Montana, theoretically.
He could troll one of the tiny pacific caucuses, he has a chance in Montana (apparently that's one where the GOP would have no problem at all with changing the results though) if they're all still in by the time it comes around. In this case Nebraska could also be in play. But realistically, as for getting a win in 2012, it's over for Paul. He's been very unlucky not to win at least one state. Hopefully he can get enough delegates to force a brokered convention.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Alcon on March 07, 2012, 01:37:13 PM
Isn't Montana doing a primary this time instead of a caucus?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: memphis on March 07, 2012, 01:56:57 PM
OK why did Santorum win Shelby County? Aren't the Memphis suburbs full of rich Republicans?

In this part of the world, richers are frequently more likely to be religious nutters than poors. At least among white people (Republicans). And without precinct information, it's hard to tell who voted for whom. Northern Shelby County, for instance, is neither rich nor suburban. It may as well be its own rural county.  And Santorum won with 37% countywide. Hardly a strong showing.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 07, 2012, 02:53:52 PM
Isn't Montana doing a primary this time instead of a caucus?

Yes, which is why Paul does not have a shot at Montana. Even a caucus though, I don't think he could have won. Yes he got 25% there in 2008, but he also did about as well in North Dakota and Washington in 2008 and only improved by a few points this year.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Erc on March 07, 2012, 03:26:35 PM
Isn't Montana doing a primary this time instead of a caucus?

Yes, which is why Paul does not have a shot at Montana. Even a caucus though, I don't think he could have won. Yes he got 25% there in 2008, but he also did about as well in North Dakota and Washington in 2008 and only improved by a few points this year.

The primary is completely non-binding; the delegates are decided entirely the State Convention.  The County Central Committees decide who attends the State Convention.  This makes Montana the least democratic process this year (even the Wyoming caucuses had an effect this time around), but it presumably makes it harder for the Paulistas to take control (unless they already have taken control of all the County Committees, which I doubt they have).


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Erc on March 07, 2012, 03:28:30 PM
Don't know if this has already been addressed, but are precinct/LD/caucus site/whatever results available for Alaska?  Or is the only thing reported the statewide result?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 05:24:53 PM
Don't know if this has already been addressed, but are precinct/LD/caucus site/whatever results available for Alaska?  Or is the only thing reported the statewide result?

The only thing I've seen reported is the overall tally and some anecdotal results from the Fairbanks newspaper.  The polling places were arranged by House District, but results were never released that way.  The Fairbanks Daily News-Miner (http://newsminer.com/view/full_story/17765634/article-Mitt-Romney-wins-Alaska-Republican-Presidential-Preference-poll?instance=home_lead_story) says this about the Interior Alaska vote:

Quote
Out of about 1,700 votes cast in Fairbanks, Paul won about 31 percent of the vote, followed by Romney with 24 percent, Santorum with 21 percent and Gingrich with 15.5 percent. Paul won every Interior district but North Pole, where Gingrich had a strong showing.

--Snip--

During the four-hour window, 37 voters cast ballots in Healy with most going to Santorum, who won 23 votes.

According to final numbers early this morning, Alaska will send eight delegates in support of Romney to the Republican National Convention in August. Santorum will get seven, Paul will likely get six and Gingrich will get three.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on March 07, 2012, 05:28:11 PM
The AP says 14-13-13 in Oklahoma, I wonder where their numbers are coming from.

It could be a different interpretation of the rules.  The Green Papers, says:

-If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote or only one candidate receives 15% or more of the vote, that candidate receives 3 delegates.
-Otherwise, if more than 1 candidate receives 15% of the vote, the candidate receiving the most votes receives 2 delegates and the candidate receiving the second most votes receives 1 delegate.
-Otherwise, the top 3 vote-getters receiving 15% or more of the vote each receive 1 delegate.

It could mean that if 3 candidates get more than 15%, each get 1 CD-level delegate.  If that's the case, the 15 CD delegates are split 5 a piece, which would give us the AP's results.

Well, under your interpretation, it is implied that only of the candidates tied in actual raw votes would the third paragraph come into play.

The APs interpretation is that if only two candidates get over 15% does the second paragraph apply, otherwise if three candidates get over 15%, the third paragraph applies.

Which do you think makes more sense?

The AP's interpretation makes more sense.  But I'd like to see the actual rules rather than rely on The Green Papers, which could be clearer.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Erc on March 07, 2012, 05:57:01 PM
The AP says 14-13-13 in Oklahoma, I wonder where their numbers are coming from.

It could be a different interpretation of the rules.  The Green Papers, says:

-If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote or only one candidate receives 15% or more of the vote, that candidate receives 3 delegates.
-Otherwise, if more than 1 candidate receives 15% of the vote, the candidate receiving the most votes receives 2 delegates and the candidate receiving the second most votes receives 1 delegate.
-Otherwise, the top 3 vote-getters receiving 15% or more of the vote each receive 1 delegate.

It could mean that if 3 candidates get more than 15%, each get 1 CD-level delegate.  If that's the case, the 15 CD delegates are split 5 a piece, which would give us the AP's results.

Well, under your interpretation, it is implied that only of the candidates tied in actual raw votes would the third paragraph come into play.

The APs interpretation is that if only two candidates get over 15% does the second paragraph apply, otherwise if three candidates get over 15%, the third paragraph applies.

Which do you think makes more sense?

The AP's interpretation makes more sense.  But I'd like to see the actual rules rather than rely on The Green Papers, which could be clearer.

The Green Papers is wrong in this case.  Rules are here (http://gallery.mailchimp.com/512354e730a88fee4fcc330f7/files/ORP_Rules___Amended_August_27__2011.pdf) if you want to poke through them yourself.

"If three or more presidential candidates receive 15 percent or more of such total vote in the district, the top three finishers in the District shall each be awarded one Delegate from that district."


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 07, 2012, 06:58:09 PM
Don't know if this has already been addressed, but are precinct/LD/caucus site/whatever results available for Alaska?  Or is the only thing reported the statewide result?

I have the results by House District and will post them when I get the chance.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Erc on March 07, 2012, 07:14:16 PM
Don't know if this has already been addressed, but are precinct/LD/caucus site/whatever results available for Alaska?  Or is the only thing reported the statewide result?

I have the results by House District and will post them when I get the chance.

<3


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 07, 2012, 07:25:28 PM
I'm not on my laptop at the moment, but I can tell you a couple things about the results I remember off the top of my head:

Gingrich won one district in Fairbanks, randomly, while Paul swept the others. Anchorage was split between Romney and Paul. Santorum did well in Mat-Su, but so did Romney; Santorum only broke 40% in one small district, but Romney did in many. Paul won most of the outlying rural areas. Two districts had no voters, just as in 2008. Apparently Barrow isn't filled with Republicans?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 07, 2012, 07:49:08 PM

Thank you Alaska!


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: redcommander on March 07, 2012, 08:29:34 PM

I guess Palin doesn't have as much influence in the state as she thinks she does.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 07, 2012, 09:27:41 PM
I've put Alaska maps and a table with the results here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97330.msg3224472#msg3224472 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97330.msg3224472#msg3224472)


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Erc on March 08, 2012, 12:58:48 AM
I've put Alaska maps and a table with the results here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97330.msg3224472#msg3224472 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97330.msg3224472#msg3224472)

Thank you very much!  I'll have some more reliable delegate numbers momentarily.

I assume there was just no vote held in LDs 37 & 40?  Understandable, Bethel and Barrow may not be pleasant places this time of year.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 08, 2012, 01:02:46 AM
I've put Alaska maps and a table with the results here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97330.msg3224472#msg3224472 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97330.msg3224472#msg3224472)

Thank you very much!  I'll have some more reliable delegate numbers momentarily.

I assume there was just no vote held in LDs 37 & 40?  Understandable, Bethel and Barrow may not be pleasant places this time of year.

I believe so.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Erc on March 08, 2012, 01:35:05 AM
I've put Alaska maps and a table with the results here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97330.msg3224472#msg3224472 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97330.msg3224472#msg3224472)

Thank you very much!  I'll have some more reliable delegate numbers momentarily.

I assume there was just no vote held in LDs 37 & 40?  Understandable, Bethel and Barrow may not be pleasant places this time of year.

I believe so.

Depending on what is done with LDs 37 & 40, there is some wiggle room with the delegate results.  Remember, the delegate allocations are based on Tuesday's vote, but they are weighted by district, so there's some ambiguity about what to do with the 0.86 delegates that those two districts correspond to.

The media-reported numbers (and my preliminary numbers) are in line with just treating them as uncommitted.  If they are left out of the calculus entirely, Paul gains a delegate from Gingrich.  If they hold votes later in the month (in theory they could at any point between now and the 24th), it's possible for any candidate (or two) to gain a single delegate from Gingrich.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: RI on March 08, 2012, 02:27:59 AM
I think they're Uncommitted delegates.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on March 08, 2012, 10:23:49 PM
So I went with the safe bet in ND, and got it wrong, yet I played it risky in AK, and got it wrong.  I guess I got the 2 backwards.  I almost had ND going for Santorum, but with his dropping in the polls, I thought taking the chance on AK was enough for one day.

There really isn't a good way of looking at the polls for caucus states.  Santorum has outperformed expectations in some states, while in others, he's done under what people expected him to do.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on March 08, 2012, 10:26:08 PM
I was also surprised Paul did as well as he did in Virginia.  I didn't think the anti-Romney crowd would care that much that they'd go to Paul.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on March 08, 2012, 10:49:00 PM
OK why did Santorum win Shelby County? Aren't the Memphis suburbs full of rich Republicans?

In this part of the world, richers are frequently more likely to be religious nutters than poors. At least among white people (Republicans). And without precinct information, it's hard to tell who voted for whom. Northern Shelby County, for instance, is neither rich nor suburban. It may as well be its own rural county.  And Santorum won with 37% countywide. Hardly a strong showing.

Santorum won the more middle/upper-middle class suburbs, Romney cleaned up in the wealthier and more cosmopolitan Poplar corridor.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 09, 2012, 05:48:19 AM
I have an important question about the Massachusetts primary:

Who did Dave Leip vote for?


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 09, 2012, 02:16:15 PM
I have an important question about the Massachusetts primary:

Who did Dave Leip vote for?


Ron Paul, kid.


Title: Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on March 11, 2012, 09:51:57 PM
Presidential Primary results from Shelby County, TN

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