Talk Elections

Romney: 31.2%
Santorum: 21.6%
Gingrich: 21.2
Paul: 06.0%

http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2012/03/alabama_education_association_3.htm

ummmm...

wtf

Link doesn't work.

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PPP will poll Alabama, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and North Carolina this weekend.

So we'll see if Romney really has a shot in Alabama. If Santorum and Gingrich are tied, it could be true.

Romney will get 28% here like he has in every other Southern state. Add in Paul's 10% and that's 62% for Gingrich and Santorum. Even if they split it in half, that's still 31% which is more than Romney's margin.

A teddy bear could produce a better poll than this.

I expect Romney to gain momentum, but not that much momentum.  Outlier, or just a bad poll would be my guess.

If it's accurate, the race is over by the Ides of March.

 

Here is the new story:  http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2012/03/alabama_education_association_3.html

It sounds dubious.

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Looking at some of the comments, the only thing I could figure is that WAM and Santorum are splitting the religious bigot vote.  It's possible, but I still don't buy it.

If this poll is true, Newt's toast.

Yep, and so is Santorum.  I doubt it either candidate could seriously go on with Romney winning in the west, the rust belt, and now the deep south.

Doubt this immensely...I think Romney would be lucky to break 25%...

...folks, let's remember this is friggin ALABAMA...He may do well in the rich suburban counties of Birmingham but he's toast everywhere else...

...same in Mississippi and the rich Jackson suburbs...

Ask yourself, what happens with just Santorum? ;)

Newt needs to be kicking butt here. 3rd place in AL?

Romney would have won SC.


At this point, Romney would gain momentum, if this happened.  I think that it is doubtful that it will happen.

That poll seems to be by the Alabama Education Association, which I don't think has the best polling skills out there.


Amen. And he might not even take Jefferson County, which would be the only one in the core that I could imagine going for Romney if at all. Take a look at last night next door:

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Romney got 25.9% of the vote. He didn't even win in some pretty progressive areas, but Newt is a homie and Santorum spent little to no money here and in exchange, missed the magic 20% by 0.4 points.

If Santorum drops $300,000 in AL, he could split enough off of Newt to possibly let Romney win, but Romney would have to independently raise his total to at least 30%, which I don't think is possible.

Among the results, 29.9% of voters would pick Mitt Romney, 24.7% of voters pick Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum gets 20.1%, and Ron Paul has 5.6% of those polled, with 19.8% of those polled don't know or had no reply.

The Capital Survey Research Center did a survey of 592 likely voters in Alabama from march 5-7, 2012.

http://www2.alabamas13.com/news/2012/mar/08/new-poll-alabama-voters-show-tight-gop-primary-rac-ar-3373747

What's with all these polls of Alabama from obscure companies, featuring decimal places and reporting the undecideds?

This group isn't particularly good. In 2008, a few days ahead of the AL primaries this was their final poll:

http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/article/20080202/NEWS/122394749

Obama by 7 and McCain by 12.

Obama won by 12 and Huckabee by 4.

Third one of what? Two showed Romney ahead. One showed Santorum ahead.

It's actually 2.

I found out that CSRC polls for the Alabama Education Association.

This means that they are likely doing a tracking poll.

It's the same company as the poll posted by Hillary.

I have merged the threads, so we can put in the numbers here if it's indeed a tracking poll.

Okay.

I was going going to ask it it was possible if a campaign was putting out fake polls.  Romney winning MS or AL (or even a plurality on Tuesday), will be the shock of the season.

Further, they got McCain almost exactly right (they polled him at 37.8; he got 37.1), but were waaaay off about Huckabee (they polled him at 26.2; he got 41.3). Make of this what you will as an omen for this year.

In 2008, Romney had one of his best showings among the rocket scientists of Madison County (Huntsville).  It's one of the least stereotypical counties in the state - rich and well-educated.  I'd expect him to have a chance there and in neighboring Limestone County, too. 

Romney also overperformed in Mobile and Baldwin Counties in 2008.

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=120120306114

Rasmussen out with AL & MS polls later today.

March 6-8 tracking:

28.5% Romney
25.5% Gingrich
21.1% Santorum
  4.5% Paul

http://www.myfoxal.com/story/17121260/two-new-polls-show-tight-ala-race

34% Romney
33% Gingrich
28% Santorum
  5% Paul

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/AEA_CSRC_0313.htm