Talk Elections

Well, tomarrow is the Puerto Rico Primary. We will discuse the results...

I'll guess it will go something like this...
Romney 46%
Santorum 27%
Paul 20%
Newt Gingrich 7%

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/PR-R

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/scorecard/statebystate/r

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/pr

Santorum seems likes he has an excellent chance of finishing third with his recent gaffes.

Romney wins, but does he get a above 50%?  That will be the key.

Behind who?

Doesn't matter. His enemies will say it isn't good enough because it wasn't over 60%.

RAWN Paul

It is a difference of possibly 10 delegates.  :)

Final Prediction:

Romney 61%
Santorum 19%
Paul 15%
Gingrich 5%

Looks like polls close at 5pm Eastern time:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G12/closing.phtml?format=pc

Too bad that there presumably won't be an exit poll.  It would have been interesting to see the demographic breakdown here.

Why such low predictions for Gingrich?

My prediction:

Romney 46%
Santorum 33%
Paul 15%
Gingrich 6%

Romney: 50%
Santorum: 27%
Paul: 15%
Gingrich: 7%

Dog on Car- 53
Not safe to Google- 26
Lucky Charms Leprechaun- 12
President of the Moon- 9

Has there been any polling whatsoever?

Either way, I'll guess:

Romney - 54%
Santorum - 25%
Paul - 14%
Gingrich - 7%

Same site, different page, different time

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/PR-R


Romney 47%
Santorum 34%
Paul 12%
Newt 7%

People, you do know this is the republican party, and that the republican party is very much in favor of statehood...

Really? It would probably not be in their best interests for the national party; given how Puerto Ricans in the states vote, PR would bring in 2 Democratic Senators and at least 4-5 Democratic Representatives, not to mention 8 electoral votes for the Democrats.

True dis. The gop has a relatively strong local party equivilent that can win on parocial island issues, but when national issues take hold post-statehood....

The PNP-Republican link is far from close, and some penepistas would consider it a mortal insult to be called a Republican. (While others are Republicans.) The PNP would probably fracture if forced into the US political system after statehood.

True dis.

The Democrats are the folks that are supportive of remaining a territory - all the benefits, none of the costs.

I think Romney will get above 50%.

Polls just closed.

First votes:
Romney 52 (87%)
Santorum 7 (12%)

Oh dear

This could be a massive blowout.

Romney 92 (88%)
Santorum 10 (9%)
Paul 1 (1%)

This isn't even going to be suspenseful at all:

Romney: 88%
Santorum: 9%
Paul: 1%

Uh, way too early...

Where are you getting the results from? I can't find them.

CNN

CNN is reporting them:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/pr

Still 0% reporting, nothing to panic about quite yet

but anyway, TO THE ATLAS CHAT

Atlas Chat?

Fred Karger has 1 vote so far....Newt Gingrich 0. HAHA.

Where do you see that?

104 votes reported so far in Puerto Rico: Romney 92, Santorum 10, Paul 1, Karger 1

https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/181475243305598976

Newt has one "super delegate."

Did an LDS precinct come in or something? 

Is a ludicrous Romney landslide all that hard to imagine?

I'm thinking Santorum's comments about Puerto Rico switching to English may have gone over like a (non-mythbusters) lead balloon.

88% Romney with 3% in.  I think Mittens may have his 20 delegates. :)

3% in, 88% Romney, 6% Santorum.

I hope Rick enjoyed his vacation in PR, as it certainly didn't help his campaign any. :(

Damn, I only predicted >60% Romney. I considered higher but...

Karger and Roemer beating Paul so far. lol

These results certainly are a pleasant surprise. Mitt's going to do better here than in Massachusetts.

I would love if Karger beat Newt.  He's a really nice guy.

Romslide.

Take a look at the raw numbers as well.

Mittmania! :D

Put a fork in it.  This one's done.

Candidates

Votes

Romney
3,295
86%  

Santorum
297
8%  

Gingrich
51
1%  

Paul
25
1%

Blow out!!! With Romney's wins here and Ill. I'd expect Romney to put it away in April!

According to Fox, a lot of people are voting for Romney as a proxy for supporting statehood.

How so?

5% in
 Romney  4,386 87% 
 Santorum 364 7% 0
 Gingrich 76 1% 0
 Paul 36 1% 0

Holy crap.

They reported that a lot of people think the only way Puerto Rico becomes a state is if Fortuno wins reelection and Romney wins the Presidency.

Why would only Romney allow PR to become a state?

Not sure, but I think Romney's the only one who has come out in favor of statehood so far. Fortuno's machine is also pretty strong in PR.

Gingrich suddenly surged from 1% to 4%. Woot.

It's tightening up.

Where are you guys getting full results with people like Karger, etc.?

It seems to be tightening up.

http://64.185.222.182/cee_events/PRIMARIAS_PARTIDO_REPUBLICANO_2012_36/NOCHE_DEL_EVENTO_55/default.html

LOL. That is pretty hilarious.

Karger is ahead of Paul?!?!?

That page is in Spanish, so those results dont count. Only results posted in the language of opportunity and freedom are good honest American results. 

As well as Roemer. who dropped out. I guess Stormfront isn't too active in Puerto Rico.

Sorry, I forgot.

Non-Romneys need about 58% of remaining vote to keep Romney under 50%. Currently have 18%

https://twitter.com/#!/DemConWatch

Let's go, Karger!  I'd be thrilled if he beat Newt.

 11 percent in.
Romnney 11,552 82% 0
 Santorum 1,239 9% 0
 Gingrich 435 3% 0
 Paul 164 1% 0

CNN is already calling 15 delegates for Mitt.

CNN projects Mittens will get more votes than anyone else, but then sinks into confusion, because CNN does not know how to project 50% or something. In fact the host had no idea about how delegates are allocated.  The 15 delegates must be some proportional thing, but in this case 15 = 20. CNN is just pathetic here.

Romney seems to be stronger on the west side of the island than the east.

14% in
Romney 15,213 83%
 Santorum 1,553 8%
 Gingrich 515 3% 
 Paul 215 1%

Romney only has 59% in San Juan.

How much of San Juan is in so far?

according to yahoo. romney has won puerto-rico

Looks like 3 precincts of 5. The largest may have already reported though.

Latest update:
Romney 18,328 (83.00%)
Santorum 1,852 (8.39%)
Gingrich 573 (2.59%)
Roemer 394 (1.78%)
Karger 383 (1.73%)
Other 279 (1.26%)
Paul 272 (1.23%)

lol Paul's even losing to other. Roemer seems to have passed Karger now.

Romney will sweep the delegates, CNN projects.

¡Mitt es mas macho! ¡Viva Romney!

Puerto Ricans sure do hate themselves some Ron Paul.

From the greenpapers:


If Santorum didn't even have delegates on the ballot, wtf was he doing spending several days campaigning there?

An excuse for basking in the sun. ;)

Probably just wanted a vacation.

I go back to my theory that he went there to troll the Puerto Ricans to help win support back home with the "base".

Coming up next, he will campaign in DC (where he doesn't appear on the ballot) and tell them they need to stop talking in Ebonics if they want to be a state.

He'll have plenty of time for one in May.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB1kp9adYYE&feature=related

I thought the delegate allocation was binding based on the presidential preference?  Was there some kind of separate direct vote for delegates?  If not, then why would there be write-in space for individual delegates?

This thought has crossed my mind several times. I know it's unscientific but CNN.com's online poll a few days ago had 50% of respondents agreeing with Santorum's position.

23,531 Romney (83.35%)
2,334 Santorum (8.27%)
670 Gingrich (2.37%)
525 Roemer (1.86%)
461 Karger (1.63%)
360 Other (1.28%)
351 Paul (1.24%)

I think most Americans agree with Santorum's position that any newly admitted states should be populated by people who can speak English (at least as a second language).

Is Napoleon in that video suppouse to be Romney?
Does that make Obama the Duke of Wellington?

It might make Obama Francis II.  ;)

It's always darkest before the dawn...

Out of curiosity....

In terms of raw vote totals (never mind percentages), is this Karger's second best showing, after Michigan?  He's getting more votes in Puerto Rico than he got in New Hampshire.

lol at Ron Paul.

IT'S A FRAUD!!!11111111

I think a combination of that, and if you're going to lose big, and not get any delegates anyway, you might as well make it look like you lost on principle.
"My opponent, as you know, will say anything to win. I tell it like it is, if that lost me Puerto Rico, then so be it."

Not when there is a storm coming.

Depending on how it is reported, it might start building momentum.  Since PR isn't a state, it will be limited.  It would have been worse if this was a Saturday.

Or before it's completely black...

I'm pulling for your boy though... I prefer honest crazy to craven liar.

The Deluge is back, baby!

The net result of MS/AL + random islands has probably been a slight boost to Santorum in terms of momentum, but at this point delegates are the key barring a huge game changer. Winning non-binding caucuses and netting a few delegates in proportional representation states just doesn't get you very far when Mitt can cancel it all out with a single win in a US territory.

What dawn? Cook County isn't letting Santorum win Illinois.

It would appear that Karger has only made it onto the ballot in Michigan and New Hampshire. He'll also be on the ballot in Maryland.

Thank goodness this wasn't close because they're taking forever to count. Still only 44% reporting; Romney holding steady at 83%.

Roemer now ahead of Gingrich

Roemer leading Gingrich surprises me after Roemer left the party.  Come on, Fred - beat Wack-a-mole! ;)

Latest:
61,121 Romney (83.07%)
5,645 Santorum (7.67%)
1,800 Other (2.45%)
1,641 Roemer (2.23%)
1,489 Gingrich (2.02%)
1,071 Karger (1.46%)
807 Paul (1.10%)

Don't worry 100 Paul supporters will show up to the delegate selection meeting and pry away some delegates for him.

Well, it seems it is also the primary for all the local/state/legislature offices for the Puerto Rican parties.

52% in, still 83% Romney. 



He might do better here than in Utah.  lol

If we even get to Utah btw.  :P

The Puerto Rican sun is shining a little brighter today.

The magnitude of this glorious event will proceed northward entering into the very heart and soul of Illinois.

Does Roemer get to be flavor of the month now?

How is Roemer beating Gingrich, and Karger beating Paul?

Are a significant portion of people in PR just picking names at random?

My feelings on statehood have been reinforced tonight. These results are literally unbelievable for so many reasons.

Clearly Puerto Ricans believe that Roemer is a better candidate for the presidency than Gingrich.

Karger campaigned fairly hard in PR.

Romney probably breaks 90% in Utah at this point.

Mittens might very well be the Deluge.  Notice what I've been playing:  La Victoire est à Nous !!

Can we give this stupid island back to Spain now?

BTW, how does this work? If this is a PNP primary for the other races, it would imply a bunch of Democrats voting as well (which could explain the strange results of the minor candidates). Or would self-identified Democrats not be eligible to vote in the presidential caucus?

Well, on the page of the "Comisión Estatal de Elecciones", there is

Primarias Locales 2012 PNP
Primarias Locales 2012 PPD
Primaria Especial Senado PNP
Primarias Partido Republicano 2012.

No Democrats.

The political parties in Puerto Rico are different.

These results are literally unbelievable only for those who still embrace the fantasy that Republicans would ever actually pick Santorum as their standard bearer.

Not that it matters when one candidate is getting 80%+ of the vote but the polls have been closed for nearly 7 hours and we only have 57% of the vote in? Did the fly in the vote counting team from Nevada?

()

Reported for spreading hate propaganda.

Isn't there a rule that anything you quote and report won't get infracted?

He didn't even report it...

Winfield does that a lot.

Not serious about reporting, as others have done with me, but seriously Wormy, your use of Nazi propaganda with reference to Romney is entirely out of line and completely inappropriate.

Hilarious.

That doesn't answer my question.  The reason there are no Democrats is because Obama's nomination is not contested. But there is a quirk in the local party system that makes it a bit strange.

PPD is a pro-Commonwealth (pro-status quo) party, which is, essentially an affiliate of the (US) Democratic party - among its members the Republican supporters are either negligible or non-existent. However, the pro-statehood PNP is mixed: it's a coalition of those who in national politics think of themselves as Republicans and of pro-statehood Democrats. So, my question was, whether a PNP member, who would be showing up for the PNP caucus to select PNP candiates for local offices, but who is self-identified as a Democrat for the purposes of the US politics, would still vote in a Republican presidential election with his fellow PNP members, or would he only vote for the local candidates. It's a kind of a strange local PR version of the question, whether the caucus is open or closed :)))

Sadly it doesn't look like Karger will beat Gingrich.  I'm glad he didn't place last though.  It's pretty cool that he beat Paul.

CNN is saying than voters had a to sign a document saying than they approved the Republican values and ideology. So, open, to that condition.

Romney is actually doing poorly by historical standards (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1996&fips=72&f=1&off=0&elect=2).

(And yes, the primaries were still competitive at that point, I checked...)

Even Putin could only dream of such results.

In fact:

2000: Bush wins with 94%
2008: McCain wins with 90%

If any of us had bothered to look back at the historic results a blowout for the establishment frontrunner should've been obvious.

The question remains though: why the hell did Santorum campaign here?

The best explanation seems to be: he genuinely wanted a vacation.

This. If he was going to lose anyway, why not make it look like he lost on principle?


http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/santorum-blames-statehood-position-for-puerto-rico-loss

To the best of my knowledge, there have only been two genuinely competetive presidential primaries/caucuses in the history of Puerto Rico--three if you include 2008 for the Dems, which wasn't that close. The two competetive contests were in 1980 between Carter and Kennedy and in 1988 when Jackson won with >30%. Everything else has been a massive blowout.

2008 Dem: Clinton 68.42%, Obama 31.58%
2008 Rep: McCain 90.38%, Huckabee 4.81%, Paul 4.33%
2000 Rep: Bush 94.21%, McCain 5.29%
1996 Rep: Dole 97.99%
1992 Dem: Clinton 95.86%, Kerrey 1.43%, Brown 1.42%
1988 Dem: Jackson 31.98%, Dukakis 25.78%, Simon 21.01%, Gore 16.53%, Gephardt 3.34%
1984 Dem: Mondale 99.46%, Hart 0.54%
1980 Dem: Carter 51.67%, Kennedy 48.04%

And if you add in that Santorum's "campaign" basically consisted of telling Puertoricans to speak Inglés if they want to be Americans but that they're still cool to vacation on - that is, basically consisted of telling them to vote for whoever had the best chance to beat him - and wonder what sort of appeal, exactly, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul were supposed to have, then, um, yeah.

So, Romney < Mondale.