Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 11:46:03 AM



Title: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 11:46:03 AM
Turnout still is reporting low, but expect a long night. There is a problem reported that paper ballots for scanning are the wrong size for the polling place machines. It affects most counties that use a choice of fill-in-oval ballots or touch-screen machines at the polling place.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 20, 2012, 11:49:40 AM
"A long night," eh? Perfect...perfect...


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Matthew on March 20, 2012, 11:52:24 AM
I hope Romney wins it by enough to make him more of a typical front runner. Like McCain 2008, George w Bush 2000 or Dole 1996. About time for Romney to wins it by 20 points to start winning states from here on out. Time to redirect our fire power towards Obama! We can't afford a 60 day election season against Obama!


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 20, 2012, 12:17:28 PM
@numbernerds: Reports of extremely low turn out in Romney strongholds in and around Chicago. #ILPrimary


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Erc on March 20, 2012, 12:29:15 PM
Since this is a loophole primary, are there any big names on the ballot as delegates, whose personal vote may cause significant ticket-splitting? (a la Dennis Hastert in 2008)


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on March 20, 2012, 12:49:12 PM
Romney should just drop out. Let the tea party have the GOP, they seem to be on the offensive anyway, so another Obama term will be good for them.

And once again, these poor showings are Romney's fault, he is simply running a terrible campaign.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Matthew on March 20, 2012, 12:55:23 PM
Romney should just drop out. Let the tea party have the GOP, they seem to be on the offensive anyway, so another Obama term will be good for them.

And once again, these poor showings are Romney's fault, he is simply running a terrible campaign.

You could say that about the whole republican field: Romney, Santorum, Paul and sadly Gingrich. The party is so divided I seriously doubt we can beat Obama, but if we wait until after the convention we're really in trouble. 


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 01:26:22 PM
Turnout still is reporting low, but expect a long night. There is a problem reported that paper ballots for scanning are the wrong size for the polling place machines. It affects most counties that use a choice of fill-in-oval ballots or touch-screen machines at the polling place.

Are there any sizable counties that have that problem?  If so, which ones?

I don't think low turnout will flip any delegates. That is just the way the CD's are drawn.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: argentarius on March 20, 2012, 01:36:20 PM
Romney seems to have all the momentum going in. Only thing that could possibly save Santorum is a surge like the one in Minnesota/Colorado when he massively increased his support just before the contests.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 01:36:47 PM
Turnout still is reporting low, but expect a long night. There is a problem reported that paper ballots for scanning are the wrong size for the polling place machines. It affects most counties that use a choice of fill-in-oval ballots or touch-screen machines at the polling place.

Are there any sizable counties that have that problem?  If so, which ones?

I don't think low turnout will flip any delegates. That is just the way the CD's are drawn.

DuPage is one of 65 affected counties. I found this noontime statement from the DuPage Election Commission:

Quote
   Problem confined to 23 locations out of 360. Small # of ballots at those 23 locations were too wide to be counted. New ballots are being taken to all those locations and all affected ballots will be counted under statutory procedures that judges are trained to implement.

    Entire situation expected to be completely under control by 1 p.m.

    All votes will be counted.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on March 20, 2012, 01:42:09 PM
Romney seems to have all the momentum going in. Only thing that could possibly save Santorum is a surge like the one in Minnesota/Colorado when he massively increased his support just before the contests.

If it it close party leaders should try to force Romney into dropping out.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 01:45:38 PM
Since this is a loophole primary, are there any big names on the ballot as delegates, whose personal vote may cause significant ticket-splitting? (a la Dennis Hastert in 2008)

Romney has some prominent pols, and so does Gingrich downstate. Not so much for Santorum, who had no organization here until Cain dropped out. Most of his delegates are ones originally set for Cain.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 01:56:30 PM
Since this is a loophole primary, are there any big names on the ballot as delegates, whose personal vote may cause significant ticket-splitting? (a la Dennis Hastert in 2008)

Romney has some prominent pols, and so does Gingrich downstate. Not so much for Santorum, who had no organization here until Cain dropped out. Most of his delegates are ones originally set for Cain.

I hope the Whack-a-Mole does not jump up again.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: ill ind on March 20, 2012, 01:57:43 PM
re The loophole primary.  Glancing at the delegate candidate list

CD1: Romney,Paul,Gingrich, and Santorum all have 3 candidates on the ballot--none of whom are noteworthy.  The Libertarian Candidate in the 2004 Senate race won by Obama is running as a Paul delegate, but that is fairly meaningless.

CD2: Romney,Paul,Gingrich and Santorum all have 3 candidates on the ballot--none of whom are noteworthy.

CD3:Romney,Paul,Gingrich, and Santorum all have 3 candidates on the ballot--Cook County Commissioner Liz Doody Gorman is running as a Romney delegate, but her conty board district is much much smaller than the 3rd CD, so it may give her a little boost because of name familiarity in media reports, but not too much.

CD4:Romney,Paul, and Gingrich all have 2 candidates on the ballot--none of whom are noteworthy.

CD5: Romney,Paul, and Gingrich all have 3 candidates on the ballot.  State Rep Patricia Bellock and former Rep Walter Dudycz are running as Romney delegates, but neither has universal name recognition.

CD 6: Romney,Paul,Santorum, and Gingrich all have 3 candidates on the ballot--none of whom are noteworthy.

CD 7:Romney,Paul, and Gingrich all have 2 candidates on the ballot--none of whom are noteworthy

CD 8: Romney, Paul, Santorum, and Gingrich all have 3 candidates on the ballot.  State reps Dennis Reboletti and Franco Coladipietro are running as Romney delegates, but again niether has a huge amount of recognition.

CD 9 Romney, Paul, Gingrich, Santorum, and Roemer have 3 candidates on the ballot, while Rick Perry has 1.  The only candidate with any recognition is probably Penny Pullen running for Santorum who is well known as a pro-life candidate.

CD-10 Romney,Paul, Gingrich, and Santorum are running 3 candidates each.  The only ones with any recognition--Steve Kim who lost the attorney General race in 2010 is running as a Romney delegate and Dan Sugrue who lost a legislative race is arunning for Santorum.

CD 11: Romney,Paul, Gingrich, and Santorum are running 3 candidates.  The only one with any recognition is tea party darling Cedra Crenshaw who got on Fox National news over her ballot acces battle is running for Gingrich.  Other than that--nobody noteable.

CD 12: Romney, Paul, Gingrich, and Santorum all have 3 candidates on the ballot.  The only one with any recognition is State Rep Mike Bost  running for Gingrich

CD 13: Romney, Paul, and Gingrich are running 3 candidates a piece.  State Rep Bill Mitchell is running as a Romney delegate while State Rep Wayne Rosenthal is running as a Gingrich delegate.


CD 14  Romney,Paul, Gingrich, and Santorum are all running 3 candidates.  Dennis Hastert's son Ethan is running as a Romney delegate, and former Senate, Sec of State candidate Al Salvi is running as a Santorum delegate.

CD 15: Romney,Paul,Gingrich and Santorum are all running 4 candidates.  State Senators David Leuchtefeld and Dale Righter along with former Rep Frank Watson are running as Romney delegatesand former State Rep Bill Black is running for Gingrich.

CD 16:  Romney, Paul, gingrich, and Santorum are all running 3 candidates.  State Treasurer and Romney campaign chair Dan Rutherford is running as a Romney delegate.

CD 17:  Romney, Paul, Gingrich, and Santorum are all running 3 candidates.  Congressional loser (2004/2006) andrea Lane Zinga is running as a Romney delegate

CD 18: Romney, Paul, Gingrich and Santorum are running 4 candidates each and there is one candidate for an uncommitted slot in this district.  State Reps Rich Brauer and Jill Tracy are on Romney's slate, but other than that nothing to see.

  In conclusion, the State Treasurer and several incumbent and former reps and senators on the ballot, but nobody who is going to drive a huge amount ticket splitting like Dennis Hastert did 4 years ago.  (He was elected as a delegate on the Romney slate even though McCain handily won the statewid beauty contest vote) If you really want to dig into the nittiy-gritty, then you can delve into the alternate delegate slates being voted on today as well..

Ill_Ind


Title: Exit poll: Romney only up 5 in IL.
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 20, 2012, 02:23:28 PM
http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/20/illinois-exit-polls-illinois-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-mississippi-gop-primary-march-13/ (http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/20/illinois-exit-polls-illinois-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-mississippi-gop-primary-march-13/)

Low turnout but "beautiful weather" across the state.


Title: Re: Exit poll: Romney only up 5 in IL.
Post by: Matthew on March 20, 2012, 02:40:11 PM
http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/20/illinois-exit-polls-illinois-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-mississippi-gop-primary-march-13/ (http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/20/illinois-exit-polls-illinois-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-mississippi-gop-primary-march-13/)

Low turnout but "beautiful weather" across the state.

I don't think we can beat Obama if we wait until September to have a canidate. Isn't looking good for us at all.


Title: Re: Exit poll: Romney only up 5 in IL.
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 20, 2012, 02:41:14 PM
http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/20/illinois-exit-polls-illinois-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-mississippi-gop-primary-march-13/ (http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/20/illinois-exit-polls-illinois-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-mississippi-gop-primary-march-13/)

Low turnout but "beautiful weather" across the state.

I don't think we can beat Obama if we wait until September to have a canidate. Isn't looking good for us at all.

Agreed. Romney and Newt should really step aside as soon as possible.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Phony Moderate on March 20, 2012, 02:43:22 PM
Joke party.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: argentarius on March 20, 2012, 02:53:03 PM
What exit poll is this? If so, that's a disaster for Romney. He was up by 7 on Santorum in MS. 5 point win is weak for Mitt.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: redcommander on March 20, 2012, 02:55:51 PM
When do the polls close?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 20, 2012, 02:59:34 PM

7pm Central / 8pm Eastern


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 03:03:12 PM
wpindicates that the exit polls are showing a Romney victory, but no specifics.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/illinois-election-officials-ballot-problem-will-likely-delay-gop-primary-results/2012/03/20/gIQAKp2pPS_blog.html#pagebreak


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 20, 2012, 03:08:02 PM
wpindicates that the exit polls are showing a Romney victory, but no specifics.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/illinois-election-officials-ballot-problem-will-likely-delay-gop-primary-results/2012/03/20/gIQAKp2pPS_blog.html#pagebreak

The media doesn't get access to the exit polling until 5pm Eastern.  The comment in that story is just speculative.  Along the lines of "Romney's probably far enough ahead that they'll be able to call this on exit polling and early results....once we actually have those."


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 20, 2012, 03:08:19 PM
wpindicates that the exit polls are showing a Romney victory, but no specifics.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/illinois-election-officials-ballot-problem-will-likely-delay-gop-primary-results/2012/03/20/gIQAKp2pPS_blog.html#pagebreak

No, it doesn't...


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 03:12:23 PM
wpindicates that the exit polls are showing a Romney victory, but no specifics.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/illinois-election-officials-ballot-problem-will-likely-delay-gop-primary-results/2012/03/20/gIQAKp2pPS_blog.html#pagebreak

No, it doesn't...

Yes it does:

While it will make for a late night for election workers and perhaps some journalists, there probably won’t be a lot of suspense about the outcome of the race, thanks to exit polling and Mitt Romney’s significant lead over his Republican rivals in recent polls in the state.

They are not saying, "exit polls tight and we could be up all night."


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 03:17:49 PM
wpindicates that the exit polls are showing a Romney victory, but no specifics.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/illinois-election-officials-ballot-problem-will-likely-delay-gop-primary-results/2012/03/20/gIQAKp2pPS_blog.html#pagebreak

The article did not imply that it had any exit poll data. It just said that if the polls are right, the exit polls will declare a winner without any votes tabulated, or not many. So essentially we "know" absolutely nothing.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: ajb on March 20, 2012, 03:20:54 PM
wpindicates that the exit polls are showing a Romney victory, but no specifics.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/illinois-election-officials-ballot-problem-will-likely-delay-gop-primary-results/2012/03/20/gIQAKp2pPS_blog.html#pagebreak

No, it doesn't...

Yes it does:

While it will make for a late night for election workers and perhaps some journalists, there probably won’t be a lot of suspense about the outcome of the race, thanks to exit polling and Mitt Romney’s significant lead over his Republican rivals in recent polls in the state.

They are not saying, "exit polls tight and we could be up all night."

It's a badly written sentence, since that "thanks to exit polling" clause could either mean "thanks to the exit polling, which we've seen, and which is favorable to Romney," OR "thanks to the exit polling, which is likely to give us conclusive results before the delayed vote counting is complete."

I suspect the latter, since it's too early in the day for exit polling to be really meaningful, especially given that we all now know that Romney's been doing better in the early exit polling than in the final exit poll numbers at the end of the night.

All that said, I think we'd all be shocked at this point if Romney didn't win IL.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 20, 2012, 03:28:19 PM
Again, the media doesn't actually get access to the exit polls until 5pm, when Edison Media Research releases their early results to the media pool.  So any supposed numbers being reported before that are fake.  This is the way it's been in every single American election since 2006, following the 2004 exit polling fiasco.  Do we have to go over this every time?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: argentarius on March 20, 2012, 03:38:33 PM
When do polls close?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 20, 2012, 03:44:28 PM

8 PM Eastern


Title: Exit: Now Mitt only up four - 42 to 38.
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 20, 2012, 03:56:24 PM
This might be the 5 PM exit poll. I'm hearing it is 42% to 38%. Newt has 15% to Paul's 5%. This is from the same source I posted before. They released results at the same times for MI and were within two points of the actual result.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Alcon on March 20, 2012, 03:59:55 PM
sketchy.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Bacon King on March 20, 2012, 04:07:53 PM
Just skimmed a Google News search to see what I could find about turnout. Posted it in the other thread:

Turnout reports I've found so far:

Cook County: "potentially record low turnout"
North Shore of Chicago: "steady in some neighborhoods"
Wilmette (Cook County): "much slower compared to previous primaries"
Park Ridge (Cook County): "low"
Champaign County: "slow and steady"; estimated turnout 35k
university precincts around the state: "nonexistent" (due to spring break)
Bloomington: "steady"; just under 4k voters by noon
Knox County: "average" and "consistent with previous primaries"
Will County: "typical low primary turnout"


So turnout appears to be average only in the lower income (and fairly evangelical) counties that have turnout reports: Knox and Champaign. As you get closer to Chicago from there, turnout falls, reaching abysmal levels once you reach Cook County itself.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 20, 2012, 04:12:38 PM
Like I asked in the other thread, what are these turnout numbers comparing to?  Are they talking about combined turnout for the two parties, and comparing to past primaries?  Because that's not going to be very meaningful, since there's no Democratic contest this time.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 04:14:46 PM
Just skimmed a Google News search to see what I could find about turnout. Posted it in the other thread:

Turnout reports I've found so far:

Cook County: "potentially record low turnout"
North Shore of Chicago: "steady in some neighborhoods"
Wilmette (Cook County): "much slower compared to previous primaries"
Park Ridge (Cook County): "low"
Champaign County: "slow and steady"; estimated turnout 35k
university precincts around the state: "nonexistent" (due to spring break)
Bloomington: "steady"; just under 4k voters by noon
Knox County: "average" and "consistent with previous primaries"
Will County: "typical low primary turnout"


So turnout appears to be average only in the lower income (and fairly evangelical) counties that have turnout reports: Knox and Champaign. As you get closer to Chicago from there, turnout falls, reaching abysmal levels once you reach Cook County itself.

Champaign was an average Huckabee county (home to the U of Illinois of course), and Knox just a tad above.


Title: Re: Exit: Now Mitt only up four - 42 to 38.
Post by: Eraserhead on March 20, 2012, 04:25:20 PM
This might be the 5 PM exit poll. I'm hearing it is 42% to 38%. Newt has 15% to Paul's 5%. This is from the same source I posted before. They released results at the same times for MI and were within two points of the actual result.

That'd be beautiful. I don't believe it though. Paul isn't going to do as poorly as he did in 2008 for one thing.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Alcon on March 20, 2012, 04:33:50 PM
I'm just really, really skeptical of Santorum making this especially close.  It's rare that I cannot think of a single compelling argument for Santorum overperforming his polls (beyond his normal very-slight overperformance)...but I see no signs of this happening here, nor any reason why it would.

But we'll see in 2 1/2 hours I suppose.


Title: Re: Exit poll: Romney only up 5 in IL.
Post by: Boris on March 20, 2012, 04:35:49 PM
http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/20/illinois-exit-polls-illinois-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-mississippi-gop-primary-march-13/ (http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/20/illinois-exit-polls-illinois-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-mississippi-gop-primary-march-13/)

Low turnout but "beautiful weather" across the state.

Yep, I'm chillin' on my balcony right now enjoying an ice cold coca-cola. Although I'm tempted to go vote for Santorum since my polling place is apparently a five minute drive away.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 04:37:33 PM
I'm just really, really skeptical of Santorum making this especially close.  It's rare that I cannot think of a single compelling argument for Santorum overperforming his polls (beyond his normal very-slight overperformance)...but I see no signs of this happening here, nor any reason why it would.

But we'll see in 2 1/2 hours I suppose.

Fox is suppose to have them at 6:00 PM EDT.


Title: Re: Exit poll: Romney only up 5 in IL.
Post by: Eraserhead on March 20, 2012, 04:38:14 PM
http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/20/illinois-exit-polls-illinois-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-mississippi-gop-primary-march-13/ (http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/20/illinois-exit-polls-illinois-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-mississippi-gop-primary-march-13/)

Low turnout but "beautiful weather" across the state.

Yep, I'm chillin' on my balcony right now enjoying an ice cold coca-cola. Although I'm tempted to go vote for Santorum since my polling place is apparently a five minute drive away.

Might as well.


Title: Re: Exit poll: Romney only up 5 in IL.
Post by: Alcon on March 20, 2012, 04:39:36 PM
Go for it, Boris.

Also, lol @ Bill Spetrino Polling & Investments Inc. LLC


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Bacon King on March 20, 2012, 04:40:42 PM
Like I asked in the other thread, what are these turnout numbers comparing to?  Are they talking about combined turnout for the two parties, and comparing to past primaries?  Because that's not going to be very meaningful, since there's no Democratic contest this time.


No idea; most didn't specify, but I'm assuming that comparing past primaries (and talks of "record lows") also includes past races when only one party had a contest. Also to note for Champaign County- if their estimate holds up, that'll only be an 8% vote decrease from 2008.

This might be the 5 PM exit poll. I'm hearing it is 42% to 38%. Newt has 15% to Paul's 5%. This is from the same source I posted before. They released results at the same times for MI and were within two points of the actual result.

That'd be beautiful. I don't believe it though. Paul isn't going to do as poorly as he did in 2008 for one thing.

1. Pretty much all Illinois schools are on spring break this week, so Paul's biggest voter base probably isn't even in the state
2. Paul also overperformed among early voters, per PPP's poll, and presumably those aren't counted in the exit poll


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 20, 2012, 04:42:15 PM
Iowa - Santorum down in the polls
Colorado/Minnesota/Missouri - Santorum comes from nowhere, down in the polls
Alabama/Mississippi - Underestimated by the polls

Are we seeing a pattern yet?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 04:45:01 PM
Here (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57401138-503544/cbs-news-early-illinois-exit-polls-4-in-10-romney-santorum-voters-have-reservations/) is some early exit poll data that isn't what anyone is looking for, except 56% say the economy is their top issue, which voters tended to go for Mittens in the past. Other than that, 40%+ of both Romney and Santorum voters have reservations about their chosen candidate. Who knew?  :)



Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: redcommander on March 20, 2012, 04:47:12 PM
Iowa - Santorum down in the polls
Colorado/Minnesota/Missouri - Santorum comes from nowhere, down in the polls
Alabama/Mississippi - Underestimated by the polls

Are we seeing a pattern yet?

He's not winning the state, and I'll eat my shoes if he does.


Title: Re: Exit poll: Romney only up 5 in IL.
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 20, 2012, 04:48:28 PM
http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/20/illinois-exit-polls-illinois-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-mississippi-gop-primary-march-13/ (http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/20/illinois-exit-polls-illinois-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-mississippi-gop-primary-march-13/)

Low turnout but "beautiful weather" across the state.

Yep, I'm chillin' on my balcony right now enjoying an ice cold coca-cola. Although I'm tempted to go vote for Santorum since my polling place is apparently a five minute drive away.

Go go go!


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 04:53:16 PM
Like I asked in the other thread, what are these turnout numbers comparing to?  Are they talking about combined turnout for the two parties, and comparing to past primaries?  Because that's not going to be very meaningful, since there's no Democratic contest this time.


No idea; most didn't specify, but I'm assuming that comparing past primaries (and talks of "record lows") also includes past races when only one party had a contest. Also to note for Champaign County- if their estimate holds up, that'll only be an 8% vote decrease from 2008.

This might be the 5 PM exit poll. I'm hearing it is 42% to 38%. Newt has 15% to Paul's 5%. This is from the same source I posted before. They released results at the same times for MI and were within two points of the actual result.

That'd be beautiful. I don't believe it though. Paul isn't going to do as poorly as he did in 2008 for one thing.

1. Pretty much all Illinois schools are on spring break this week, so Paul's biggest voter base probably isn't even in the state
2. Paul also overperformed among early voters, per PPP's poll, and presumably those aren't counted in the exit poll

Also, Paul's presence in terms of signs and volunteers at other political events is noticeably less than in 2008.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 20, 2012, 04:54:45 PM
I'm just really, really skeptical of Santorum making this especially close.  It's rare that I cannot think of a single compelling argument for Santorum overperforming his polls (beyond his normal very-slight overperformance)...but I see no signs of this happening here, nor any reason why it would.

But we'll see in 2 1/2 hours I suppose.

Fox is suppose to have them at 6:00 PM EDT.

But they're only going to release demographic data and such.  And stuff like "50% of left-handed dwarfs voted for Romney."  They don't release the toplines until polls close in the state.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 05:00:36 PM
I'm just really, really skeptical of Santorum making this especially close.  It's rare that I cannot think of a single compelling argument for Santorum overperforming his polls (beyond his normal very-slight overperformance)...but I see no signs of this happening here, nor any reason why it would.

But we'll see in 2 1/2 hours I suppose.

Fox is suppose to have them at 6:00 PM EDT.

But they're only going to release demographic data and such.  And stuff like "50% of left-handed dwarfs voted for Romney."  They don't release the toplines until polls close in the state.


I don't know, but some of the link Torrie posted might be indicative.  The economy was a big issue.  Electability was the most important factor.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Eraserhead on March 20, 2012, 05:02:36 PM
Which candidate has the best shot at beating Obama?

Romney voters:

Romney 93%
Santorum 1%

Santorum voters:

Santorum 58%
Romney 28% (I think)

They put this up on MSNBC.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Eraserhead on March 20, 2012, 05:05:43 PM
As others have mentioned already, CNN is confirming that the turnout in Chicago and the collar counties is pretty terrible.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Ben Romney on March 20, 2012, 05:06:50 PM
MR45.7% NG13.0% RP:09.4% RS31.9%


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: ajb on March 20, 2012, 05:08:49 PM
Which candidate has the best shot at beating Obama?

Romney voters:

Romney 93%
Santorum 1%

Santorum voters:

Santorum 58%
Romney 28% (I think)

They put this up on MSNBC.

Looking at the Alabama exit polls, Santorum got 96% of the 23% of voters who thought he had the best chance of beating Obama. So about 22% of the total number of voters were Santorum voters who thought that he had the best chance of beating Obama, which, divided by his 35% vote share, suggests that about 63% of Santorum voters in Alabama thought he had the best chance of beating Obama.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/al

59% of AL voters thought the economy was the most important issue, and 35% thought that being able to beat Obama was the most important candidate quality.
All these numbers are useful context for what they're releasing from IL.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Eraserhead on March 20, 2012, 05:10:03 PM

Where did you get that?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Boris on March 20, 2012, 05:11:47 PM
How exactly do elections in this country work? I voted for Santorum for President, but I selected Paul's people as the delegates to the RNC representing DuPage county (on the basis that this forum seems to think they're going to cause some sort of ruckus at Tampa). I then voted for Santorum's people as the alternate delegates. So who did I give the advantage to?

The dude said that turnout at my polling place was "steady" (probably because my neighborhood is full of rich white people) but pretty miserable everywhere else.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Eraserhead on March 20, 2012, 05:13:34 PM
CNN is flashing a bunch of stuff from the exits now. Looks like a big Romney win.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Bacon King on March 20, 2012, 05:14:52 PM
Here (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57401138-503544/cbs-news-early-illinois-exit-polls-4-in-10-romney-santorum-voters-have-reservations/) is some early exit poll data that isn't what anyone is looking for, except 56% say the economy is their top issue, which voters tended to go for Mittens in the past. Other than that, 40%+ of both Romney and Santorum voters have reservations about their chosen candidate. Who knew?  :)



Thanks for the link!

Most important candidate quality:

Can defeat Obama: 37%
true conservative: 20%
strong character: 20%
right experience: 17%

"Can Defeat Obama" has lately been like like 60% Romney to 25% Santorum in exit polls
"True Conservative"; 55% Santorum to 20% Romney
"Strong Character"; 60% Santorum to 20% Romney
"Right Experience"; 60% Romney to 20% Santorum

...mathing that out, that gives a total of 43% Romney to 38% Santorum. (Note, if this ends up being accurate, it's probably more coincidence than anything else, this is very rough estimates).


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Meeker on March 20, 2012, 05:16:26 PM
Looking like another night of "Why can't Mitt close the deal?" stories!


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Matthew on March 20, 2012, 05:21:01 PM
Looking at the numbers I doubt Romney beats Santorum by more then 5-6 points. Santorum holds conservative, under 50,000 a year and rural(4 points). This pretty much says that Santorum will hold the 12, 15 and much of the central, southern parts of the state. Not looking like a total blow out.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Eraserhead on March 20, 2012, 05:22:56 PM
I'm guessing it'll be something like an 8-12% Romney win based on the exits CNN are flashing. Hopefully the exits are underestimating Santorum again though.

I also doubt they'll feel comfortable enough to call it as soon as the polls close.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 05:24:17 PM
I'm guessing it'll be something like an 8-12% Romney win based on the exits CNN are flashing. Hopefully the exits are underestimating Santorum again though.

I came up with 10%  :)


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 20, 2012, 05:24:46 PM
Looking like another night of "Why can't Mitt close the deal?" stories!

Let's just hope the southern counties report first and the Chicago+suburb counties take until late in the night to start reporting.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 05:46:31 PM
Below are some crosstabs from the PPP poll which has Mittens up 15%, to give some context to the CNN exit poll flashes of the split between very conservative voters for Rick, and moderate-liberals for Mitt. The key missing ingredient which CNN is holding back are the somewhat conservative voters. :)

()

()


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 06:02:17 PM
Current exit polls S down 14 points. - CNN

Only 10% of the voters are rural.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 20, 2012, 06:02:59 PM
...........

No exit polls have been released yet. Stop saying false things.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Matthew on March 20, 2012, 06:03:16 PM
Very conservative on cnn appears to be Santorum 48% and Romney 34%=14 points. PPP shown 15 with that poll.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 06:04:40 PM
...........

No exit polls have been released yet. Stop saying false things.

It is on CNN.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on March 20, 2012, 06:06:59 PM
Current exit polls S down 14 points. - CNN

Only 10% of the voters are rural.

Remember when Romney was up by 7 in the MS exit poll? Or would you rather just forget about that? :)


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Eraserhead on March 20, 2012, 06:07:11 PM
Feeling pretty good about my prediction now.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 06:11:26 PM
Current exit polls S down 14 points. - CNN

Only 10% of the voters are rural.

Remember when Romney was up by 7 in the MS exit poll? Or would you rather just forget about that? :)

No, but I do remember when he was up in MS on Rasmussen and I didn't believe it.

BTW:  AP now lists Romney with 14 delegates in MS and Santorum with 13 (RNC member).


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 20, 2012, 06:26:37 PM
How exactly do elections in this country work? I voted for Santorum for President, but I selected Paul's people as the delegates to the RNC representing DuPage county (on the basis that this forum seems to think they're going to cause some sort of ruckus at Tampa). I then voted for Santorum's people as the alternate delegates. So who did I give the advantage to?

The dude said that turnout at my polling place was "steady" (probably because my neighborhood is full of rich white people) but pretty miserable everywhere else.

As I understand it, the actual primary is just a beauty contest. The Congressional district-level delegates are being elected separately. The statewide delegates will be selected by a party convention later on.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 06:52:15 PM
How exactly do elections in this country work? I voted for Santorum for President, but I selected Paul's people as the delegates to the RNC representing DuPage county (on the basis that this forum seems to think they're going to cause some sort of ruckus at Tampa). I then voted for Santorum's people as the alternate delegates. So who did I give the advantage to?

The dude said that turnout at my polling place was "steady" (probably because my neighborhood is full of rich white people) but pretty miserable everywhere else.

As I understand it, the actual primary is just a beauty contest. The Congressional district-level delegates are being elected separately. The statewide delegates will be selected by a party convention later on.

The statewide delegate selection is determined at a convention, but if it runs like four years ago a slate will be determined by party leaders and approved by the elected delegates.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:01:01 PM
45 R 35 S 12 G 8 P early exit polls- CNN.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 20, 2012, 07:01:38 PM
Exit poll is now out:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/il


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: izixs on March 20, 2012, 07:02:15 PM
Looking good for my prediction score. (Romney >40%)


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Alcon on March 20, 2012, 07:02:28 PM
Yes, it's Romney +10-11


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Oakvale on March 20, 2012, 07:02:50 PM
Someone's already posted this, in all likelihood, but we'll be in Mibbit (http://www.mibbit.com), as usual.

#atlasforum


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 20, 2012, 07:03:18 PM
Last minute voters strong for Santorum and Santorum usually overperforms his exit poll results. This could be a close one...


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Alcon on March 20, 2012, 07:06:51 PM
Last minute voters strong for Santorum and Santorum usually overperforms his exit poll results. This could be a close one...

good luck on that.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:07:03 PM
Santorum lost the Catholic vote, again.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Alcon on March 20, 2012, 07:07:44 PM
Santorum lost the Catholic vote, again.

As he has been for eons.  Catholic Republicans are establishment types.  This isn't some knock to Santorum...they're just not his electorate.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on March 20, 2012, 07:09:05 PM
Last minute voters strong for Santorum and Santorum usually overperforms his exit poll results. This could be a close one...

I think he'll close the gap, but Romney will prevail here.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:11:32 PM
Santorum lost the Catholic vote, again.

As he has been for eons.  Catholic Republicans are establishment types.  This isn't some knock to Santorum...they're just not his electorate.

Mittens is winning Tea Party supporters as well.  He's losing Evangelicals but by a reduced margin.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Alcon on March 20, 2012, 07:12:41 PM
Santorum lost the Catholic vote, again.

As he has been for eons.  Catholic Republicans are establishment types.  This isn't some knock to Santorum...they're just not his electorate.

Mittens is winning Tea Party supporters as well.  He's losing Evangelicals but by a reduced margin.

On the other hand, Romney has absolutely crashed among those neutral to the Tea Party.  GAME CHANGER!1111


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:14:26 PM
Santorum lost the Catholic vote, again.

As he has been for eons.  Catholic Republicans are establishment types.  This isn't some knock to Santorum...they're just not his electorate.

Mittens is winning Tea Party supporters as well.  He's losing Evangelicals but by a reduced margin.

On the other hand, Romney has absolutely crashed among those neutral to the Tea Party.  GAME CHANGER!1111

He's only leading Santorum by 4 points there.  ;)


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Meeker on March 20, 2012, 07:16:35 PM
Second round of exits brings it down to

Romney: 44%
Santorum: 36%
Gingrich: 11%
Paul: 9%


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 07:17:26 PM
One thing of note. The demographic/geographic  divide is muted - ala Mississippi and Alabama. In Chicagoland, Mittens is only winning by about 13% or something, and just down 5% with "rural" voters - only 10% of the voters are something, but where Rick runs best. So for purposes of winning CD's, Mittens' vote is well distributed. He still has a shot of winning 17 out of 18 CD's (with Mittens getting Ill-12 no matter who wins the popular vote there since Rick has no delegates filed there) with but a 10% margin with this distribution. My best guess would be 15-16 CD's go Mittens, if these exit poll numbers are right.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 20, 2012, 07:18:43 PM
According to the exit polls Santorum is leading in some area called "Northern Illinois" that is 30% of the electorate.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on March 20, 2012, 07:19:34 PM
Does anyone have a link to the AP page?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Alcon on March 20, 2012, 07:19:51 PM
Santorum lost the Catholic vote, again.

As he has been for eons.  Catholic Republicans are establishment types.  This isn't some knock to Santorum...they're just not his electorate.

Mittens is winning Tea Party supporters as well.  He's losing Evangelicals but by a reduced margin.

On the other hand, Romney has absolutely crashed among those neutral to the Tea Party.  GAME CHANGER!1111

He's only leading Santorum by 4 points there.  ;)

But if Romney should be absolutely obliterating among the neutral if he's nearly tied among supporters.  Santorum may be lagging with Catholics, but Romney certainly needs the wishy-washy, ambivalent vote to win.  It's his core base of support.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:21:13 PM

There are not any yet.

According to the exit polls Santorum is leading in some area called "Northern Illinois" that is 30% of the electorate.

That in northern IL without Cook and the bordering counties.  In other words, not much.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: cinyc on March 20, 2012, 07:21:38 PM
Does anyone have a link to the AP page?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/IL_Page_0320.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:22:46 PM
Does anyone have a link to the AP page?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/IL_Page_0320.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 07:22:53 PM
Historically few counties will report before 8 pm here. The first load of votes will be early voting when it does show up (usually with 0 precincts reporting).


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 20, 2012, 07:24:05 PM
WTF is John King smoking? He just said that Santorum has no chance to take Nebraska and South Dakota, while he considered himself "generous" by giving him West Virginia.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 07:24:41 PM
According to the exit polls Santorum is leading in some area called "Northern Illinois" that is 30% of the electorate.

That must mean Rock Island, Moline and Rockford and the corn fields in-between. :)  But no, not 30%.  Something is wrong. But moving right along, that does put this CD in play (which is one of the 4 that were already in play):

()

and this one (which I also had in play), maybe.

()





Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 07:25:21 PM
Cook county is showing about 800 votes so far. R 46%, S 31%, P 17%, G 6%.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 07:26:15 PM
WTF is John King smoking? He just said that Santorum has no chance to take Nebraska and South Dakota, while he considered himself "generous" by giving him West Virginia.

Whatever the strain, I want some. :P


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:28:03 PM
@7.2 Lake R 56%, S 28%


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 07:28:43 PM
CNN is showing a total, but it's dominated by the Lake early votes cited by JJ.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 07:29:57 PM
In Clay county deep down state the early vote is S 46, R 37. Thats less than 100 votes cast.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: cinyc on March 20, 2012, 07:30:12 PM
CNN is showing a total, but it's dominated by the Lake early votes cited by JJ.

7.2% of Lake County's actual precincts are included in the tally.  It's not just early votes.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 07:30:38 PM

Mitt's strongest county in the state. Of that, I am near certain. Lake is Torie country, and probably has more of my type of Pubs in some concentration than any other substantial county in the United States.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 07:31:37 PM
CNN is showing a total, but it's dominated by the Lake early votes cited by JJ.

7.2% of Lake County's actual precincts are included in the tally.  It's not just early votes.

I see that now. Thanks.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: cavalcade on March 20, 2012, 07:31:57 PM
Vote dump in Cook up to 16% of precincts in, Romney leading there 54-26.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 20, 2012, 07:34:14 PM
I'm ready to make a call.

Romney takes Illinois by a wide margin.

:D


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 07:34:22 PM
About 100 votes out of Peoria are also going 52 R 29 S.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 07:34:47 PM
In Clay county deep down state the early vote is S 46, R 37. Thats less than 100 votes cast.

It is probably time to put up my silly little mappie again, which shows county names, and the Kirk colors - albeit those are with a 13% lead, rather than 10% statewide, but Mittens has lower percentage margins per the exit polls than Kirk over his combined opposition, so the county colors might be pretty good.

Clay is deep into Santorum country - very deep.

()


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 07:36:03 PM
About 100 votes out of Peoria are also going 52 R 29 S.

That county will be quite diverse per precinct, I would think.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:37:10 PM
Logan @ 3.4 R 46 S. 37.  It is in the center of the state, north of Springfield.

Iroquois @ 2.7 S 42 R 41, on the IN border.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 20, 2012, 07:38:39 PM
According to the exit polls Santorum is leading in some area called "Northern Illinois" that is 30% of the electorate.

That in northern IL without Cook and the bordering counties.  In other words, not much.

Er, no dude. Read my post. It's 30% (now 29% in the updated exit poll) of the electorate. Literally the opposite of "not much."


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 20, 2012, 07:40:28 PM
David Gergen CNN

This is the first time Santorum has had the opportunity to go up against Romney in what is essentially a one on one and Romney is winning handily

or words to that effect.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:41:05 PM
According to the exit polls Santorum is leading in some area called "Northern Illinois" that is 30% of the electorate.

That in northern IL without Cook and the bordering counties.  In other words, not much.

Er, no dude. Read my post. It's 30% (now 29% in the updated exit poll) of the electorate. Literally the opposite of "not much."

I think that INCLUDES the collar counties.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Eraserhead on March 20, 2012, 07:41:31 PM
CNN calls it for Romney. Yawn.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 07:41:40 PM
Here's some delegate results:
CD 1 16% in ( 1 romney, 2 santorum )
CD 2 8% in ( 2 romney, 1 santorum)
CD 3 13% in ( 3 romney )
CD 4 23% in ( 2 romney )
CD 5 25% in (3 romney)


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 20, 2012, 07:42:22 PM
According to the exit polls Santorum is leading in some area called "Northern Illinois" that is 30% of the electorate.

That in northern IL without Cook and the bordering counties.  In other words, not much.

Er, no dude. Read my post. It's 30% (now 29% in the updated exit poll) of the electorate. Literally the opposite of "not much."

I think that INCLUDES the collar counties.

No, it does not. Collar counties are a separate exit poll category.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 07:42:30 PM
Logan @ 3.4 R 46 S. 37.  It is in the center of the state, north of Springfield.

A Kirk 50-55% county. So extrapolating, a bit better than the Kirk 13% statewide margin probably, which probably isn't happening unless the exit polls are a joke, again showing the more muted divide this time.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:42:39 PM
CNN - Romney wins big.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB1kp9adYYE&feature=related


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 20, 2012, 07:43:27 PM
CNN declares

Romney Wins!!!!!!!!!!

And a big win it is!!!!!!!!!!

This is truly a glorious day!

:D  :D  :D  :D  :D  :D  :D  


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 20, 2012, 07:45:09 PM
MSNBC calls it too... I can't imagine that, barring a 20 point Romney win, this changes much... Rick is still going on to Wisconsin at minimum, probably at least till PA


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 07:46:30 PM
Early votes in DuPage are 55 R 27 S.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:46:49 PM
MSNBC calls it too... I can't imagine that, barring a 20 point Romney win, this changes much... Rick is still going on to Wisconsin at minimum, probably at least till PA


I would not count on WI at this point; it is competitive, but not guaranteed.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 20, 2012, 07:47:29 PM
MSNBC calls it too... I can't imagine that, barring a 20 point Romney win, this changes much... Rick is still going on to Wisconsin at minimum, probably at least till PA


I would not count on WI at this point; it is competitive, but not guaranteed.

Oh, not saying Santorum will win it, but he won't drop out before it.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:48:18 PM
Peoria with about 1% in, Romney 50, Santorum 30%.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 07:49:41 PM
well, a sh**t night for lovers of tooclosetocallism... 'going to bed. Have a good night, folks !


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 07:49:41 PM
Romney's delegate slates have now pulled ahead in all the Cook CDs.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 07:49:56 PM
Rick is on track to winning Ill-15. That is about it for the moment. He still has a shot at 3 more, where he has delegates - maybe.

()


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:50:27 PM
Santorum is cleaning up in the southern counties, like by 30 points.  Make that 40 points in Randolph.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Reds4 on March 20, 2012, 07:52:57 PM
Intrade has a contract for Romney's margin of victory... 15% or more is trading at 45%... you guys think it will be that big? Something tells me it will end closer than that.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 20, 2012, 07:54:03 PM
Nearly everything that's in so far is from Cook County; it would be idiotic to try to extrapolate a final result from that.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 07:54:49 PM
The first really good news for Rick, if the 4% sample is representative of anything in Adams (Quincy - a rather prosperous town).

()


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 07:56:06 PM
Intrade has a contract for Romney's margin of victory... 15% or more is trading at 45%... you guys think it will be that big? Something tells me it will end closer than that.

Putting aside the Adams thing, that percentage seems reasonable, maybe a tad high, but not by much.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 07:59:21 PM
The first really good news for Rick, if the 4% sample is representative of anything in Adams (Quincy - a rather prosperous town).

()

Yes, but that sits in CD 18 and Romney seems to be carrying the other counties from that CD so far.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 20, 2012, 08:01:16 PM
This one is for Tagg Romney.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: ajb on March 20, 2012, 08:01:16 PM
I'm thinking the exit polls will hold, and this will settle down to somewhere around an 8% Romney win.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: cavalcade on March 20, 2012, 08:01:57 PM
Bunch of votes from LaSalle, very narrow Santorum lead.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 08:03:14 PM
The first really good news for Rick, if the 4% sample is representative of anything in Adams (Quincy - a rather prosperous town).

()

Yes, but that sits in CD 16 and Romney seems to be carrying the other counties from that CD so far.

I like to see a bit higher sample, before projecting much. For example, a small sample shows a 6% lead for Mittens in Rockford, which would be a blow to Rick, but again it is small. In heterogeneous counties, that would be foolish.

Other than Lake and Cook, where Mittens romped, we really can't project much other than Mittens will win by probably not much below 10% as a floor, nor any of the 4 swing CD's right now.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: retromike22 on March 20, 2012, 08:05:18 PM

Always. Win. Delegates.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 20, 2012, 08:06:47 PM
Gloria Borger CNN

Santorum has no message.  When he's asked a question he keeps going down these rabbit holes. 


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 08:07:29 PM
If romney win, like, 1164 delegates : could there is a 1968-like rumble convention ? A split? A coup-d'état? something else?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 20, 2012, 08:09:36 PM
Gloria Borger CNN

It used to be that the Romney campaign wanted Gingrich to stay in the race to split the conservative vote.  Now     they     don't     care.

With Gingrich out of the race, it will allow Romney to get to 1144 earlier.     


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 20, 2012, 08:09:42 PM
Gloria Borger CNN

Santorum has no message.  When he's asked a question he keeps going down these rabbit holes. 

Are you and JJ in some sort of spamming contest?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 08:09:54 PM
Gloria Borger CNN

Santorum has no message.  When he's asked a question he keeps going down these rabbit holes.  

Are you an admirer of Borger? I find her superficial, and not very careful in separating her opinions, from how folks tend to actually vote, and why. In short, she's useless - at least for me.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 20, 2012, 08:10:29 PM
Santorum has a majority in Adams county with 43% in.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Reds4 on March 20, 2012, 08:10:38 PM
Any guesses as to who finished third tonight?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 08:11:16 PM
The first really good news for Rick, if the 4% sample is representative of anything in Adams (Quincy - a rather prosperous town).

()

Yes, but that sits in CD 16 and Romney seems to be carrying the other counties from that CD so far.

I like to see a bit higher sample, before projecting much. For example, a small sample shows a 6% lead for Mittens in Rockford, which would be a blow to Rick, but again it is small. In heterogeneous counties, that would be foolish.

Other than Lake and Cook, where Mittens romped, we really can't project much other than Mittens will win by probably not much below 10% as a floor, nor any of the 4 swing CD's right now.

BTW I meant CD 18.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 08:12:07 PM
If romney win, like, 1164 delegates : could there is a 1968-like rumble convention ? A split? A coup-d'état? something else?



maybe my question is not on the right thread, but...I'm very curious to have american advices


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: netzero19 on March 20, 2012, 08:14:59 PM
If romney win, like, 1164 delegates : could there is a 1968-like rumble convention ? A split? A coup-d'état? something else?



maybe my question is not on the right thread, but...I'm very curious to have american advices

If he gets 1164, he wins. You need to get above 1144 to get the nomination.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 08:15:12 PM
the red-dressed is the romney's wife????


for a wealthy man, he could have choice a more beautiful than that!


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 20, 2012, 08:15:32 PM
Gloria Borger CNN

Santorum has no message.  When he's asked a question he keeps going down these rabbit holes. 

Are you and JJ in some sort of spamming contest?

Just passing on interesting little statements from the "best political team on television", my friend, just passing on information for all to read.

Let them think of it what they may.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 08:16:51 PM
If romney win, like, 1164 delegates : could there is a 1968-like rumble convention ? A split? A coup-d'état? something else?



maybe my question is not on the right thread, but...I'm very curious to have american advices

If he gets 1164, he wins. You need to get above 1144 to get the nomination.




yes, I know, but maybe he is so hated than the 49% of losers could not admit mitt and try something to sink his campain, no?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 20, 2012, 08:18:07 PM
the red-dressed is the romney's wife????


for a wealthy man, he could have choice a more beautiful than that!

Now that is extremely rude and completely uncalled for.  She is a beautiful woman, inside and out.

She is a very strong and determined woman, who has been battling MS.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 08:19:39 PM
Despite all that purple, other than the 15th, no other of the 5 CD's in play can be projected yet, at least by me. I don't have a clue. If St. Clair goes purple, then Rick will have secured his second CD. Rockford is turning into a Mittens bastion that he may well need to nail down one of the 4 CD's in play.


()


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 20, 2012, 08:21:15 PM
the red-dressed is the romney's wife????


for a wealthy man, he could have choice a more beautiful than that!

Now that is extremely rude and completely uncalled for.  She is a beautiful woman, inside and out.

She is a very strong and determined woman, who has been battling MS.
I find more often then not that I like Ann more then I do Mitt.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 08:21:28 PM
Any guesses as to who finished third tonight?

Paul.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Meeker on March 20, 2012, 08:21:39 PM
Santorum delegates winning IL-12, IL-15, splitting IL-14, IL-17 and IL-18. Romney delegates winning everywhere else.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on March 20, 2012, 08:21:57 PM
the red-dressed is the romney's wife????


for a wealthy man, he could have choice a more beautiful than that!

Now that is extremely rude and completely uncalled for.  She is a beautiful woman, inside and out.

She is a very strong and determined woman, who has been battling MS.

Lol France.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 08:22:14 PM
the red-dressed is the romney's wife????


for a wealthy man, he could have choice a more beautiful than that!

Now that is extremely rude and completely uncalled for.  She is a beautiful woman, inside and out.

She is a very strong and determined woman, who has been battling MS.


OK with that


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 08:23:10 PM
My guess is Romney wins by more than 15 points.  It might be close to a majority.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 20, 2012, 08:25:06 PM
THE AMERICAN ECONOMY IS FUELED BY FREEDOM


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 08:25:10 PM
Despite all that purple, other than the 15th, no other of the 5 CD's in play can be projected yet, at least by me. I don't have a clue. If St. Clair goes purple, then Rick will have secured his second CD. Rockford is turning into a Mittens bastion that he may well need to nail down one of the 4 CD's in play.


()


other than 14, 17, 18 which is your other CD in play? If it's 12 it doesn't look in play.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 08:25:39 PM
romney right now : "american economy is fueled by freedom"


noo, mitt ! american economy is strong with INDUSTRIES, blue-collar and protectionism. If all than american consumers buy is going from china via wall mart, were would you found the wealth???




Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: cavalcade on March 20, 2012, 08:26:37 PM
Romney is such an awkward speaker when he has to say mean things about Obama.  


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on March 20, 2012, 08:26:47 PM
If romney win, like, 1164 delegates : could there is a 1968-like rumble convention ? A split? A coup-d'état? something else?



maybe my question is not on the right thread, but...I'm very curious to have american advices

If he gets 1164, he wins. You need to get above 1144 to get the nomination.




yes, I know, but maybe he is so hated than the 49% of losers could not admit mitt and try something to sink his campain, no?

In 1964 you had open booing by differing factions' delegates. Unlikely that will occur here, although Mitt getting heckled during his speech would sink him.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 20, 2012, 08:26:53 PM
these are the delegate/CD results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/IL_Delegates_0320.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on March 20, 2012, 08:27:19 PM
the red-dressed is the romney's wife????


for a wealthy man, he could have choice a more beautiful than that!

Now that is extremely rude and completely uncalled for.  She is a beautiful woman, inside and out.

She is a very strong and determined woman, who has been battling MS.


OK with that

As well, who the Hell has any idea what a woman is gonna look like forty years after they marry?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 20, 2012, 08:31:18 PM
Can someone please explain to me how anyone with a working brain can support this person?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on March 20, 2012, 08:31:35 PM
Can someone get this scum off the stage?  I fear that his already oversized head just might explode and get ego juice all over everyone.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 08:31:48 PM
the red-dressed is the romney's wife????


for a wealthy man, he could have choice a more beautiful than that!

Now that is extremely rude and completely uncalled for.  She is a beautiful woman, inside and out.

She is a very strong and determined woman, who has been battling MS.


OK with that

As well, who the Hell has any idea what a woman is gonna look like forty years after they marry?


()

marie laforet *smiley loooove*


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 08:32:12 PM
Despite all that purple, other than the 15th, no other of the 5 CD's in play can be projected yet, at least by me. I don't have a clue. If St. Clair goes purple, then Rick will have secured his second CD. Rockford is turning into a Mittens bastion that he may well need to nail down one of the 4 CD's in play.


()


other than 14, 17, 18 which is your other CD in play? If it's 12 it doesn't look in play.

Answer to my question - CD 16? Though no matter what, Romney will get at least one delegate there.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 20, 2012, 08:35:27 PM
Great speech Mitt!  Great speech!

You have inspired America!


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Meeker on March 20, 2012, 08:35:38 PM
If the current delegate leaders hold

Romney: 43
Santorum: 11


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 20, 2012, 08:36:55 PM
If the current delegate leaders hold

Romney: 43
Santorum: 11

:D


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 08:37:22 PM
My guess is Romney wins by more than 15 points.  It might be close to a majority.

I bet few less than 15


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Meeker on March 20, 2012, 08:38:01 PM
Romney falls below 50%


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 08:38:40 PM
Despite all that purple, other than the 15th, no other of the 5 CD's in play can be projected yet, at least by me. I don't have a clue. If St. Clair goes purple, then Rick will have secured his second CD. Rockford is turning into a Mittens bastion that he may well need to nail down one of the 4 CD's in play.


()


other than 14, 17, 18 which is your other CD in play? If it's 12 it doesn't look in play.

Answer to my question - CD 16? Though no matter what, Romney will get at least one delegate there.

So I don't  have to look up numbers, and I know IL-13 isn't in play, Carbondale, Moline, Rockford and Quincy, whatever those numbers are.

()


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 08:44:03 PM
Mittens is romping in Decautur (yes it is in the failure for Rick to file Ill-13), which is a blow to Rick. As Decatur and Rockford goes, so goes Moline/Rock Island?

()


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 08:44:44 PM
listening santorum. I'm far for being agree with all his ideas, but this guy seems true-hearted/sincere/unfeigned

(sorry, google traduct propose me a thousand of words)


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 20, 2012, 08:45:29 PM
I'm getting a real "William Wallace in a sweatervest" vibe out of Santorum.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 08:46:08 PM


So I don't  have to look up numbers, and I know IL-13 isn't in play, Carbondale, Moline, Rockford and Quincy, whatever those numbers are.

()

That would be 12, 17, 16, and 18 corresponding to the cities in your list.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 08:49:51 PM
I'm getting a real "William Wallace in a sweatervest" vibe out of Santorum.


really ? even if you are a massa democrat?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 08:50:14 PM
My guess is Romney wins by more than 15 points.  It might be close to a majority.

I bet few less than 15


I win !


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on March 20, 2012, 08:52:07 PM
Where do they FIND these people?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Democratic Hawk on March 20, 2012, 08:52:48 PM
Current exit poll data suggests Romney will win by 13 (48-35)


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 08:53:32 PM
I think Mittens has the Rockford CD, and has lost the Carbondale CD (4% in, and Mittens losing St. Clair), so Rick has two CD's, with two still in play - the Quincy and Moline CD's. Franzl lives in a Rick CD, as he assumed. He was right. Anvi lives there too. :)


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 08:53:59 PM
My guess is Romney wins by more than 15 points.  It might be close to a majority.

I bet few less than 15


I win !

Maybe not.  He started up again.  


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 20, 2012, 08:54:54 PM
BREAKING NEWS: Sarah Maria Santorum is only 14 years old, Atlas Forum full of pedophiles.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: jaichind on March 20, 2012, 08:55:37 PM
Current exit poll data suggests Romney will win by 13 (48-35)

Does not sound right to me.  Being that Cook has not reported anything yet one would think that Romeny would do better from here.  He is leading 48-34 right now.  Perhaps there will not be that many GOP primary voters in Cook county ?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 08:55:49 PM
Off for my repast for 30 minutes. I leave it to Muon2 to project the remaining two CD's in my absence. I know he can do it! :)


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 08:56:19 PM
My guess is Romney wins by more than 15 points.  It might be close to a majority.

I bet few less than 15


I win !

Maybe not.  He started up again.  


If you win, I pay you airplaine travel to Paris


and if I win? What would I have? ;)


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: xavier110 on March 20, 2012, 08:57:06 PM
Current exit poll data suggests Romney will win by 13 (48-35)

Does not sound right to me.  Being that Cook has not reported anything yet one would think that Romeny would do better from here.  He is leading 48-34 right now.  Perhaps there will not be that many GOP primary voters in Cook county ?

Uhhh nearly 90% of Cook is in


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: ag on March 20, 2012, 08:57:45 PM
Current exit poll data suggests Romney will win by 13 (48-35)

Does not sound right to me.  Being that Cook has not reported anything yet one would think that Romeny would do better from here.  He is leading 48-34 right now.  Perhaps there will not be that many GOP primary voters in Cook county ?

85% of Cook is in.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on March 20, 2012, 08:59:04 PM
What about DuPage?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: netzero19 on March 20, 2012, 08:59:23 PM
Dupage only has 1 precinct in.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 09:02:33 PM
I think Mittens has the Rockford CD, and has lost the Carbondale CD (4% in, and Mittens losing St. Clair), so Rick has two CD's, with two still in play - the Quincy and Moline CD's. Franzl lives in a Rick CD, as he assumed. He was right. Anvi lives there too. :)

CD 12 (Carbondale): Santorum 3
CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could flip to a 1-2 split, or remotely a 3-0 split.
CD 17 (Moline): Santorum 3
CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 or 4-0.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 09:03:26 PM
interesting map :

()


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 09:03:51 PM

I see 220 precincts in in DuPage on the county website.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: netzero19 on March 20, 2012, 09:05:31 PM

I see 220 precincts in in DuPage on the county website.

I see it there. I wonder why Google maps isn't updating it.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Democratic Hawk on March 20, 2012, 09:06:33 PM
Current exit poll data suggests Romney will win by 13 (48-35)

Does not sound right to me.  Being that Cook has not reported anything yet one would think that Romeny would do better from here.  He is leading 48-34 right now.  Perhaps there will not be that many GOP primary voters in Cook county ?

I've re-checked and get Romney 46 - Santorum 35. That's going by how male & female voters split

Men (52%): Romney 46% (0.46 x 0.52 = 23.92); Santorum 34% (0.34 x 0.52 = 17.68)
Women (48%): Romney 46% (0.46 x 0.48 = 22.08); Santorum 37% (0.37 x 0.48 = 17.76)

Total: Romney 46; Santorum 35.44


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: jaichind on March 20, 2012, 09:10:18 PM
Well, ag pointed out that the current results does include a significant count from Cook.  If that is the case then for sure 48-35 might be too opstimistic for Romney.

Current exit poll data suggests Romney will win by 13 (48-35)

Does not sound right to me.  Being that Cook has not reported anything yet one would think that Romeny would do better from here.  He is leading 48-34 right now.  Perhaps there will not be that many GOP primary voters in Cook county ?

I've re-checked and get Romney 46 - Santorum 35. That's going by how male & female voters split

Men (52%): Romney 46% (0.46 x 0.52 = 23.92); Santorum 34% (0.34 x 0.52 = 17.68)
Women (48%): Romney 46% (0.46 x 0.48 = 22.08); Santorum 37% (0.37 x 0.48 = 17.76)

Total: Romney 46; Santorum 35.44


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Democratic Hawk on March 20, 2012, 09:14:32 PM
Well, ag pointed out that the current results does include a significant count from Cook.  If that is the case then for sure 48-35 might be too opstimistic for Romney.

Having re-checked the exit poll, I get Romney 46 - Santorum 35


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 09:16:16 PM
What is the final delegate count look like?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on March 20, 2012, 09:19:05 PM

Some frontrunner. He still can't receive a majority in the bulk of the contests.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: jaichind on March 20, 2012, 09:20:40 PM
Romney's lead just jumped to 48-34.  Mostly because Dupage came in.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 09:20:51 PM
Delegate update:

CD 12 (Carbondale): Santorum 3 (looks solid)
CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could be 1-2 split (127 votes).
The State Treasurer locks in 1 for Romney.

CD 17 (Moline): Santorum 3 (looks solid)
CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 split (111 votes)
Romney is really helped in 18 by having 2 popular State Reps on the slate.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Eraserhead on March 20, 2012, 09:22:38 PM
Santorum is basically as much of a dead man walking as Gingrich after tonight.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 09:25:02 PM
Delegate update:

CD 12 (Carbondale): Santorum 3 (looks solid)
CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could be 1-2 split (127 votes).
The State Treasurer locks in 1 for Romney.

CD 17 (Moline): Santorum 3 (looks solid)
CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 split (111 votes)
Romney is really helped in 18 by having 2 popular State Reps on the slate.


What is the final count?

Santorum 8-10

Romney 44-46



Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Boris on March 20, 2012, 09:25:56 PM
Santorum is basically as much of a dead man walking as Gingrich after tonight.

I tried to do my part to make this spectator sport more interesting, but alas :(. Romney isn't really an interesting human being so unless we're like 49-49 going into November 6 there will probably be better activities to waste our time on in 2012.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 09:27:13 PM
Delegate update:

CD 12 (Carbondale): Santorum 3 (looks solid)
CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could be 1-2 split (127 votes).
The State Treasurer locks in 1 for Romney.

CD 17 (Moline): Santorum 3 (looks solid)
CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 split (111 votes)
Romney is really helped in 18 by having 2 popular State Reps on the slate.


This is on a base of 34 Romney and 7 Santorum.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: firennice on March 20, 2012, 09:28:20 PM
The hardest part (if you are a Republican) is that you would like them to be raising money for months to compete in November. Dragging it out to convention, means no one has the time to raise money.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 09:29:22 PM
I think Mittens has the Rockford CD, and has lost the Carbondale CD (4% in, and Mittens losing St. Clair), so Rick has two CD's, with two still in play - the Quincy and Moline CD's. Franzl lives in a Rick CD, as he assumed. He was right. Anvi lives there too. :)

CD 12 (Carbondale): Santorum 3
CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could flip to a 1-2 split, or remotely a 3-0 split.
CD 17 (Moline): Santorum 3
CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 or 4-0.

12 Rick delegates total per this, including I assume the 4 from IL-15? If so, Mittens beats my spreadsheet by 5 delegates.

Folks don't know how to transfer their votes to delegates I guess. What was the CD where Rick is missing a delegate?  I thought he had full slates in all but the four CD's, three safe Romney.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: netzero19 on March 20, 2012, 09:30:32 PM
I wonder where Phil is..


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 09:31:25 PM
If I narrow it to the two competitive CDs there is a base of Romney 37 and Santorum 10

CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could be 1-2 split (127 votes).
The State Treasurer locks in 1 for Romney.

CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 split (111 votes)
Romney is really helped in 18 by having 2 popular State Reps on the slate.

So it looks like Romney has 40 Santorum has 12 and two are in play.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 09:32:45 PM

He left after the exit poll was announced. He maybe has less of pain tolerance than I do. :I stay around to suck it up, even when Mittens blows. :)


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: ajb on March 20, 2012, 09:36:40 PM
Just for the hell of it, some comparisons to the 2008 Democratic Primary. No surprise that these guys are underperforming that contest statewide, since it's a blue state. But look at Lake County, one of Romney's strongholds.

2008 Democratic Primary:
Obama 57 999
Clinton 33 195

2012 Republican Primary (100% in from Lake County):
Romney  33 247
Santorum  16 563


Clinton was trounced in Lake County in 2008, but she got almost exactly as many votes as Romney got tonight in sweeping the county.

Just a reminder of how weak turnout has been in these primaries, and what a failed opportunity they've been for recruiting new voters for the Republican party.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 09:38:03 PM
If I narrow it to the two competitive CDs there is a base of Romney 37 and Santorum 10

CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could be 1-2 split (127 votes).
The State Treasurer locks in 1 for Romney.

CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 split (111 votes)
Romney is really helped in 18 by having 2 popular State Reps on the slate.

So it looks like Romney has 40 Santorum has 12 and two are in play.

How can we call Ill-17, with no votes from Rock Island County?  You have 3 delegates for Rick. Are they leading by big margins?  Oh, Rick is leading in Rock Island County by 6% now, so yes, per the popular vote, he won 3 CD's where he has delegates, and I tend to doubt he won IL-13 anyway, where he didn't.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 20, 2012, 09:41:32 PM

He left after the exit poll was announced. He maybe has less of pain tolerance than I do. :I stay around to suck it up, even when Mittens blows. :)

Are you seriously suggesting that I run away when results don't go my way? You really are disgusting. Say what you want about me but never ever suggest that I run away when I lose. I was in the damn chat almost all night. I didn't know not posting every minute in this thread meant I was hiding. ::)


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 09:43:20 PM
OK Phil. Hope you are having fun. Have a beer.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Colbert on March 20, 2012, 09:47:14 PM
"tory" and "reaganomic" : discrepancy


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 20, 2012, 09:47:27 PM
OK Phil. Hope you are having fun. Have a beer.

Professional troll. Does it with a smile. "Oh, he's such a nice guy!" ::)

Seriously, you ought to be ashamed at suggesting that I run away when Santorum doesn't do well. Uh...2006?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: tmthforu94 on March 20, 2012, 09:59:18 PM
Great win tonight, good speech. Go Mitt! :)


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Beet on March 20, 2012, 09:59:22 PM
If I narrow it to the two competitive CDs there is a base of Romney 37 and Santorum 10

CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could be 1-2 split (127 votes).
The State Treasurer locks in 1 for Romney.

CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 split (111 votes)
Romney is really helped in 18 by having 2 popular State Reps on the slate.

So it looks like Romney has 40 Santorum has 12 and two are in play.

How are you getting the results by CD?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 10:06:09 PM
If I narrow it to the two competitive CDs there is a base of Romney 37 and Santorum 10

CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could be 1-2 split (127 votes).
The State Treasurer locks in 1 for Romney.

CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 split (111 votes)
Romney is really helped in 18 by having 2 popular State Reps on the slate.

So it looks like Romney has 40 Santorum has 12 and two are in play.

How are you getting the results by CD?

I think Muon2 is looking at the raw votes for actual delegates, which none of the rest of us are. He knows the players. :)


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 10:09:37 PM
If I narrow it to the two competitive CDs there is a base of Romney 37 and Santorum 10

CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could be 1-2 split (127 votes).
The State Treasurer locks in 1 for Romney.

CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 split (111 votes)
Romney is really helped in 18 by having 2 popular State Reps on the slate.

So it looks like Romney has 40 Santorum has 12 and two are in play.

How are you getting the results by CD?

I think Muon2 is looking at the raw votes for actual delegates, which none of the rest of us are. He knows the players. :)

Actually I rely on the Sun-Times website for statewide tabulation. I've found them to be among the most efficient. When I called 17 they were showing 80% in.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Sam Spade on March 20, 2012, 10:11:11 PM

He left after the exit poll was announced. He maybe has less of pain tolerance than I do. :I stay around to suck it up, even when Mittens blows. :)

Are you seriously suggesting that I run away when results don't go my way? You really are disgusting. Say what you want about me but never ever suggest that I run away when I lose. I was in the damn chat almost all night. I didn't know not posting every minute in this thread meant I was hiding. ::)

Memories, oh memories...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=48619.0


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 20, 2012, 10:13:54 PM

He left after the exit poll was announced. He maybe has less of pain tolerance than I do. :I stay around to suck it up, even when Mittens blows. :)

Are you seriously suggesting that I run away when results don't go my way? You really are disgusting. Say what you want about me but never ever suggest that I run away when I lose. I was in the damn chat almost all night. I didn't know not posting every minute in this thread meant I was hiding. ::)

Memories, oh memories...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=48619.0

Right...and when did I run away after that?

Now where are all of those hilariously wrong Sam posts about Santorum never being relevant...


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on March 20, 2012, 10:17:39 PM
CNN just had a couple comments about how Romney won big with women.  They really should have mentioned that Romney didn't do as well with women as he did with men.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: homelycooking on March 20, 2012, 10:37:26 PM
Over five thousand Illinois Republican voters chose Rick Perry over the candidates still in the race.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Sam Spade on March 20, 2012, 10:43:37 PM

He left after the exit poll was announced. He maybe has less of pain tolerance than I do. :I stay around to suck it up, even when Mittens blows. :)

Are you seriously suggesting that I run away when results don't go my way? You really are disgusting. Say what you want about me but never ever suggest that I run away when I lose. I was in the damn chat almost all night. I didn't know not posting every minute in this thread meant I was hiding. ::)

Memories, oh memories...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=48619.0

Right...and when did I run away after that?

Now where are all of those hilariously wrong Sam posts about Santorum never being relevant...

Santorum isn't relevant, and has never been relevant.  I don't think you get it.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Meeker on March 20, 2012, 10:44:54 PM
Though the media is heralding this as a great night for Romney (which, frankly, it is), I think it's still worth pointing out that Santorum did over perform the polling by a few points. Seems to always happen.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Alcon on March 20, 2012, 10:45:28 PM
Josh Putnam ‏ @FHQ  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
One precinct outstanding in IL-18 and Santorum leads Romney by 88 votes for the final (4th) delegate slot. #ilprimary


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 20, 2012, 10:53:22 PM
Though the media is heralding this as a great night for Romney (which, frankly, it is), I think it's still worth pointing out that Santorum did over perform the polling by a few points. Seems to always happen.

Per the Sean Trende regression analysis, Mittens over-performed by about 4 percentage points, which I suspect reflects Mittens got his share of the remaining Newt voters, as Newt slid from the altitude at which he was flying, at about 15% for an Illinois kind of place, down to 8%.

The more this race changes, the more it stays the same - state after state. And for that matter, from election to election - from the Kirk primary to this primary. The candidates may change, but attitudes change - more slowly.

()()


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 20, 2012, 10:55:08 PM

He left after the exit poll was announced. He maybe has less of pain tolerance than I do. :I stay around to suck it up, even when Mittens blows. :)

Are you seriously suggesting that I run away when results don't go my way? You really are disgusting. Say what you want about me but never ever suggest that I run away when I lose. I was in the damn chat almost all night. I didn't know not posting every minute in this thread meant I was hiding. ::)

Memories, oh memories...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=48619.0

Right...and when did I run away after that?

Now where are all of those hilariously wrong Sam posts about Santorum never being relevant...

Santorum isn't relevant, and has never been relevant.  I don't think you get it.

Ok so all of this discussion has been for nothing. Romney has been the nominee since January 3rd. Got it, Sam. Coincidentally, while we're on the subject of running away when things don't go someone's way, you're curiously absent when Santorum does well but pop back up when Romney rebounds, accompanied with a, "Oh, by the way, I was going to tell you guys this was going to happen" line. Very original and gutsy analysis, Sam!


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on March 20, 2012, 10:58:11 PM
Turnout was only up by a hair (while not all precincts are in, turnout is up only 1,430 votes).

Percentage wise, Romney under-performed McCain.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Politico on March 20, 2012, 11:00:19 PM
THE AMERICAN ECONOMY IS FUELED BY FREEDOM

I guaran-damn-tee it.

Romney is improving his message and delivery. He is finding his voice, and Obama is clearly in trouble unless 500,000 jobs are created per month and gas nosedives to $2.50/gallon.

Congratulations Winfield!


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 11:02:13 PM
Turnout was only up by a hair (while not all precincts are in, turnout is up only 1,430 votes).

Percentage wise, Romney under-performed McCain.

Other than Huckabee, was there another candidate in the race at this point in 2008.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Politico on March 20, 2012, 11:02:56 PM

The next great American leader: MITT ROMNEY, 45TH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 20, 2012, 11:03:53 PM
Here's the current delegate picture:

Start with a base of Romney 37 and Santorum 10 from 16 CDs.

CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but there's and outside chance it could be 1-2 split (647 votes). 88% in and likely for Romney on the contested delegate.

CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but now could be a 4-0 split (141 votes) with 99% in.

So it looks like Romney probably has 43 and Santorum has 11 with one in play.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 20, 2012, 11:16:35 PM
Turnout was only up by a hair (while not all precincts are in, turnout is up only 1,430 votes).

Percentage wise, Romney under-performed McCain.

Other than Huckabee, was there another candidate in the race at this point in 2008.

Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: muon2 on March 21, 2012, 12:04:56 AM
Here's the current delegate picture:

Start with a base of Romney 37 and Santorum 10 from 16 CDs.

CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but there's and outside chance it could be 1-2 split (647 votes). 88% in and likely for Romney on the contested delegate.

CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but now could be a 4-0 split (141 votes) with 99% in.

So it looks like Romney probably has 43 and Santorum has 11 with one in play.

The last one is for Santorum, but with a margin of only 109 votes, it will wait for certification after absentee and provisional votes are counted.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on March 21, 2012, 01:11:45 AM
Quote
Percentage wise, Romney under-performed McCain.

I'm starting to notice a trend...


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: afleitch on March 21, 2012, 04:53:50 AM
Quote
Percentage wise, Romney under-performed McCain.

I'm starting to notice a trend...

We can only hope he does that at the GE :D


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: yourelection on March 21, 2012, 07:14:37 AM
Darn! In spite of my own election schedule (http://www.yourelection.net/election-schedule/) (should have synced with outlook), I still missed the Illinois primary! At least it wasn't a cliff-hanger or  even much of a surprise.

Well for what it's worth, I still posted my thoughts: http://www.yourelection.net/2012/03/romney-wins-illinois-and-puerto-rico/



...syncing the schedule with outlook now....


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: nclib on March 21, 2012, 05:58:19 PM
these are the delegate/CD results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/IL_Delegates_0320.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

From this, the only CD's that Santorum won outright are 12, 15, and 17. Anybody getting different results?


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Eraserhead on March 21, 2012, 06:06:24 PM
I know Santorum usually loses Catholics but he was absolutely thrashed by them here.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: argentarius on March 21, 2012, 06:12:27 PM
It's mad. Catholics in Ireland (particularly up north) are far more likely to vote for a catholic than a protestant, and vice-versa. But in America identity politics seems non-existant among catholics.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: patrick1 on March 21, 2012, 06:19:30 PM
It's mad. Catholics in Ireland (particularly up north) are far more likely to vote for a catholic than a protestant, and vice-versa. But in America identity politics seems non-existant among catholics.

It is a very heterogeneous demographic in the United States and I really think even speaking of the Catholic vote has lost all meaning now. It existed decades ago and was certainly a force during the Kennedy era and as late as Reagan.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Oakvale on March 21, 2012, 06:41:35 PM
It's mad. Catholics in Ireland (particularly up north) are far more likely to vote for a catholic than a protestant, and vice-versa. But in America identity politics seems non-existant among catholics.

Only up North, surely. ???


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: argentarius on March 21, 2012, 07:24:37 PM
It's mad. Catholics in Ireland (particularly up north) are far more likely to vote for a catholic than a protestant, and vice-versa. But in America identity politics seems non-existant among catholics.

Only up North, surely. ???
The vast majority is up north, but I've seen some identity voting in places like Monaghan too. Of course it's not an issue when there are no/very few protestants in the area/on the ballot which is quite common.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 21, 2012, 07:26:28 PM
It's mad. Catholics in Ireland (particularly up north) are far more likely to vote for a catholic than a protestant, and vice-versa. But in America identity politics seems non-existant among catholics.

It is a very heterogeneous demographic in the United States and I really think even speaking of the Catholic vote has lost all meaning now. It existed decades ago and was certainly a force during the Kennedy era and as late as Reagan.

My perception is that Catholics tend to vote like Mainline Protestants these days - and think like them.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: patrick1 on March 21, 2012, 07:43:36 PM
It's mad. Catholics in Ireland (particularly up north) are far more likely to vote for a catholic than a protestant, and vice-versa. But in America identity politics seems non-existant among catholics.

It is a very heterogeneous demographic in the United States and I really think even speaking of the Catholic vote has lost all meaning now. It existed decades ago and was certainly a force during the Kennedy era and as late as Reagan.

My perception is that Catholics tend to vote like Mainline Protestants these days - and think like them.

In some places- I think it depends on ancestry of origin, how long they have been in the country, where in the country they live, what they do for a living and of course how often they  go to church. A Mexican-American in South Texas and some blue collar union member from South Boston may vote for the Democrats while an Italian American executive in North Jersey and Cuban American may go for the Republicans, yet I really don't think them being co-religionists has anything to do with how they vote.  The erosion of a Catholic vote has followed a similar pattern to the massive erosion of the RCC's influence and cohesion. 


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Oakvale on March 21, 2012, 07:54:45 PM
It's mad. Catholics in Ireland (particularly up north) are far more likely to vote for a catholic than a protestant, and vice-versa. But in America identity politics seems non-existant among catholics.

Only up North, surely. ???
The vast majority is up north, but I've seen some identity voting in places like Monaghan too. Of course it's not an issue when there are no/very few protestants in the area/on the ballot which is quite common.

Well, when I said the North I really meant Ulster... so I'd include Monaghan in that. ;)


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: Torie on March 21, 2012, 08:23:51 PM
It's mad. Catholics in Ireland (particularly up north) are far more likely to vote for a catholic than a protestant, and vice-versa. But in America identity politics seems non-existant among catholics.

It is a very heterogeneous demographic in the United States and I really think even speaking of the Catholic vote has lost all meaning now. It existed decades ago and was certainly a force during the Kennedy era and as late as Reagan.

My perception is that Catholics tend to vote like Mainline Protestants these days - and think like them.

In some places- I think it depends on ancestry of origin, how long they have been in the country, where in the country they live, what they do for a living and of course how often they  go to church. A Mexican-American in South Texas and some blue collar union member from South Boston may vote for the Democrats while an Italian American executive in North Jersey and Cuban American may go for the Republicans, yet I really don't think them being co-religionists has anything to do with how they vote.  The erosion of a Catholic vote has followed a similar pattern to the massive erosion of the RCC's influence and cohesion. 

I should have said white Mainline Protestants, and white Catholics. That is what I meant.


Title: Re: Illinois Primary Results
Post by: rbt48 on March 21, 2012, 09:03:22 PM
How did the CD 16 delegate races end up being decided in Illinois?  The AP site shows one for Romney, but no others declared. 

D. Rutherford - 32,697 (Romney)
J. Peterson - 27,678 (Santorum)
T. Koritz - 27,546 (Romney)
C. Arndt - 26,762 (Santorum)
J. Lanning - 26,664 (Romney)
D. Kosinski - 26,580 (Santorum)

These results are with 688 of 689 precincts reporting.  There is one not in from Winnebago County.