Talk Elections

Since these threads seem to have been popping up...

Obama got just under 61% here in 2008. In a midterm year that was very Republican across the board, Californians chose to stick with the Democrats by solid margins. The demographics are very favorable to Democrats and becoming more so.  Obama has a huge following in this state. The California GOP is weak and ineffectual except for vetoing tax increases. :P

What say you?

Nah. Romney has appeal with some of the secular moderates who bolted in 2008 because of Palin (Torie Republicans), and Obama is probably pretty close to a ceiling in CA anyway.

No.

Excessive hackery. On the offense. Replay third down.

nah brah

My first inclination would be to say that that would be ridiculous, but four years ago I didn't think that he could break 60%. 65% would require a 4.06% swing from 2008. For reference, here's what the 2008 election would look like with a 4.06% uniform national swing:

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My guess is that Obama will get around 57% (no trend) or 58% (slight Dem trend) in CA in a skin tight national election. The Torie vote will go against Obama, along maybe with some Jews and Silicon Valley types who are not otherwise part of the Torie vote, but the Hispanic vote will probably go up, and it will be a disaster for Mittens, fully offsetting the trend against him, or a bit more. I don't think Mittens will make much, if any, progress with Asians either.  That is my wild guess.  

Now, if Santorum were the nominee?  Ouch!  65% seems about spot on. It would be wipeout time in CA, and Pubs here might as well just close up shop.

Somewhere between Torie's estimate and the 2008 result. I think this is one of the states where Obama maxed out in 2008 for the near future but I also don't think the election will be skin tight.

Nah. Anywhere between 58 and 63%.

Not against Romney. It's a possibility against Santorum or a sacrificial lamb coughed out by a brokered convention, but that's not going to happen.

Nah. Probably gets the same as he did in 2008.

This "will 'x' break 'y'%..." threads should be merged. One is enough.

That said, no, he won't break 65%. Only if Romney chooses Palin again as his VP.

These threads need to stop.

His floor is probably around 57. His ceiling 62/63.

Hoping Obama holds SLO County against Romney so we get an (almost, damn you OC!) Democratic coast. OC will swing heavily toward Romney; they're the largest bastion of moderate Republicans left in the state.

No.

Romney takes California 52% to 48%.

lololololololololol

trololol

I don't think Obama will break 65% btw, but I think he will stay above or close to 60%. 

Someone needs a hug!

No, he will not. I think California will be about 16-17 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Even getting to 65% of the two party vote (with third parties it gets even harder to hit 65% and California tends to vote in higher numbers for third parties) would imply a 13-14 point Obama win. And if Obama does win that big, the biggest trends towards him will not be in California, but in other parts of the country.

With a roaring economy and a Santorum candidacy, it might be possible. Gingrich could probably achieve it though.

The great expert on California politics has spoken!

<3 <3 <3  Winfield

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Bear in mind that the two party percentage for Obama will be a point higher or so than his absolute percentage of the whole. My 57% to 58% CA percentage was of the whole. My guess as to the two party percentage in a skin tight national election would be a point higher - 58% to 59%. Each point counts in politics. :)

If California is a tossup, then of the two party percentage nationwide, Mittens would need to be winning the two party percentage by 58% to 59%. Add two more points to the Mittens national percentage, 61% to 62%, if he is going to get 52% of the two party vote in CA.  Not in this universe maybe, but you know there may be parallel universes out there. Just think of the possibilities!

Ok, we have known for awhile that Winny the Fool was a troll but this is the icing on the cake. Then he has the nerve to call someone else a hack! A true masterpiece.

No

What are you seeing with the Silicon Valley vote? I can't find any reason voters here would turn against Obama in large numbers; Obama seems to me to be almost the perfect Democrat to win by enormous margins in the Bay Area. Certainly the economy isn't especially bad, at least when compared to a decade ago.

When it comes to being a hack, I can't hold a candle to you Rick, er, I mean Phil.

Winny the Fool, that's very clever.  Did you pick that up from the little 6 year old down the street? 

That's really not true at all:

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That map is Tom Campbell's performance in the Republican primary for Senate. He received 17.36% of the vote in Orange County, falling well behind Carly Fiorina but also behind hard-right Chuck DeVore, an Orange County native. Orange County has always been a haven for far-right candidates and causes; in all the state, only Kern County rivals it in this respect.

It if it existed, would be because they think Obama is bad in general for economic growth, and anti-business, and wants to tax them too much. Again, it would be more with the white vote up there, if at all.

The bulk of this within the same demographic is regionalism. Campbell was the hometown boy in the Bay area, and well known. He was invisible down south. But I did my bit. I gave him the max contribution. In addition, he was a college classmate of mine. We exchanged a couple of emails during his campaign. He's a truly nice guy - and of course, smart as a whip, except when it comes to getting out the whip on his opposition.

Reps Royce (R-40) and Campbell III (R-48) are moderate Republicans (at least, compared to the rest of the national party).

Northern OC is far-right, the further south you go the more moderate it gets. Torie's precinct breakdown for Prop 8 highlighted it pretty clearly.

no it wont happen.

but it is more likely to happen than mitt winning the state.

....you and my father are the only people in the world who believe this...

No. I don't expect Obama to do as well in 2008 though. He'll win with somewhere between 55-60% of the vote.

Hey, Ventura's not a bad place for Pubs either.  Elton Gallegly, voted for both RINOs in 2010, and I believe we even voted for Johnny M. last time 'round.  The best thing for mitt to do would be to dispatch Thune to the blue-collar industrial areas and SF, Palin (only if kept on an extremely tight leash) to the middle class neighborhoods, Rubio to the southern areas to swing the Latino vote, etc.  No matter what you think about mittens, he's the reason why we have the biggest chance of carrying CA since 1988.  Just try and contain yourself, 'twill all be seen in good time.  ;)

Your father is a wise man.

That post is still a gem.

We're back on the "Republicans might win California" thing? What is this, 1996?

Royce and Campbell are anything but moderate.  Royce has a lifetime ACU rating of 98 and Campbell's lifetime rating is 92. I would, however, say that they aren't nearly as bad as some of the past OC congressman (Dannemeyer, Utt, Schmitz etc).

Just wondering, what sort of areas would you send Palin to in California? Like specific cities or neighborhoods. Also Thune to SF? Why?

Because he can tailor his message to his audience while still maintaining a decently exciting tone.  Palin would be sent to safe-red zones to drive up turnout.  Thune and possibly Palin are attractive to the everyman.  The only reason why Palin crashed and burned in 08 is because she didn't prep for 1-on-1s.  I would send Palin to Orange County and Ventura, particularly Thousand Oaks, Westlake, Agoura, etc., that general area.  Oxnard too.

No, and this thread is trolling.

In 2000, Bush outspent Gore $11 million to $0 in California. It's called arrogant Republicans.

OC in the past, though, was the capital of the American far right.

Romney's message of economic freedom is certainly going to appeal to more than 35% of the California electorate. I expect him to do much better with white collar voters than McCain.

Oh white collar CA voters are among Obama's biggest fans.

He wont break 65% in California if there were limited voting ballots with Obama on them.

Certain areas of Orange County maybe she would be fine. Simi Valley and Santa Clarita too. But you are wrong about Thousand Oaks and way off on Westlake and Agoura. She is the reason why they swung so hard against the Republicans. Well, her and Bush, but they come off similarly don't they as ignorant rural bumpkins. That's not going to play well in affluent suburbs. Come on now. On the whole Sarah Palin won't really really help anywhere in California except maybe the Central Valley.

I got bored and decided to see what 2008 would've been like if CA was around that margin.

This is what I got.

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Yes, in my neck of the woods, Palin is toxic. If Mittens doesn't want my vote, the quickest way to achieve that would be to put Palin on the ticket.  :P

If Palin is going to be let out of the closet at all, her wanderings should be limited to the fossil fuel belt. She can say "drill baby drill," in about 25 different ways, wrapped up in the American flag, patriotism, and freeing the shining city on the hill from all of those horrible folks abroad who have oil, most of which need be defunded, particularly all those nasty folks who hate Israel. Russia sucks too.  So in CA, she can go to Bakersfield, and maybe drive down to beautiful downtown Taft. Then she should get the F out, and head to western North Dakota, and then go to West Virginia, and maybe the fiighting 9th CD in Virginia, and then fly back to Wasila. I assume she won't be needed in TX and OK. :)

Oh, here is the view one can savor in Taft, a place untainted by "bad" people, who hate everything America stands for:

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What exactly is the 'Torie vote' anyway? Just you?  Or a whole class of well-I-really-can't-says?

The Torie vote consists of successful people who don't like the idea of their money being taken away to be transferred to the Democratic voting base.

Recent polling from CA suggests that the president is holding a "big-tent" comprising liberals, moderates and moderate conservatives against the Republican nominee

I couldn't believe this was real when joe republic reposted this recently, so I had to see it for myself.

Want to put $20 on this, Winfield? I will literally give you 30-1 odds.

Oh wow, I posted this in April? How time flies. :P

Why not $10,000?

Roseanne Barr pulls an upset and wins California's electoral votes. /sarcasm

But seriously, could you imagine?

No, the demographics that swung towards Obama in CA in 2008 will stabilize or reverse. Around 60% again is a possibility, though of course both are more likely than Romney carrying Calif.


link?

Trust us. The beaches are much more socially liberal than north OC, which consists of Mexicans and people who hate Mexicans.

About as likely as Romney winning.

I believed you. I just wanted to see the actual map. :)