Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign => Topic started by: Moooooo on January 11, 2005, 06:31:41 PM



Title: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Moooooo on January 11, 2005, 06:31:41 PM
Open conversation. 

What would your message have been? 

Who would you have pushed for as VP?

What would have been your platform?

How would you have reacted to the Swift boat ad's?

Would you have written of the entire South?

Would you have spent less time in Ohio and more in the midwest?

etc......


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: A18 on January 11, 2005, 06:38:38 PM
I would have sabotaged the campaign so that it'd be a Bush landslide, of course.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: Moooooo on January 11, 2005, 06:40:50 PM
I would have sabotaged the campaign so that it'd be a Bush landslide, of course.

Thats for that insightful information Phillip.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: zachman on January 11, 2005, 08:02:23 PM
I would have stayed away from an internationalist foreign policy message, I would have debated abortion as an issue of poverty, and I would have put focus on various corruption issues.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Akno21 on January 11, 2005, 08:38:32 PM
I would have chosen Gephardt for VP. I'd have written off everything except the Kerry states, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Florida, Arkansas, and Ohio.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Wakie on January 12, 2005, 04:48:25 AM
1) Spent less on PA and more on OH.

2) Selected a different running mate (with preference going to Bill Richardson, Mark Warner, or Harry Reid).

3) Organized my campaign workers a heck of a lot sooner.  (Believe me, I was involved in the campaign on a local level and it was ridiculously disorganized ... especially in the early going.  The Dean people had A LOT more organization.)

4) Campaigned less in the South and more in the Southwest.

5) Would have put together a 30 second spot showing all of Bush's worst moments and run it endlessly.

6) Would have had Kerry work into one of the debates a line like "George, don't act like you know what combat is like.  You've never been there.  I have.  I know what it sounds like to hear bullets whizzing over your head.  I know how it feels when every nerve in body tenses about from the fear."


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: opebo on January 12, 2005, 06:09:20 AM

What would your message have been? 

'Bush is a draft doger and sides with the Saudis against America'. In other words a coward and a traitor - but euphemisms would have to be used.

Who would you have pushed for as VP?

Bill Richardson.

What would have been your platform?

Pure class warfare.

How would you have reacted to the Swift boat ad's?

Created an ad calling Bush a coward and a draft doger. 

Would you have written of the entire South?

Of course. 

Would you have spent less time in Ohio and more in the midwest?

No, Ohio was the key. I think it might've been possible to turn New Mexico with Richardson, and Iowa, Ohio, and possibly Missouri with personal attacks on Bush.   

The whole thing would be a long shot, but at least Bush would've been smeared with his own filth, instead of getting away with lying about Kerry scott-free.



Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 12, 2005, 06:29:35 AM
1. I would have focused on Small Town discontent
2. I would have gone after Geppy for VP. If I had to keep Edwards I would have used him better.
3. I wouldn't have ed up in West Virginia (the real life Kerry campaign in WV was a detailed guide of what not to do and how to throw away an early lead and some solid advantages. But I'm ranting again. Sorry)
4. I wouldn't have bothered with Florida. Seriously. It was always going to be tough, costs a hell of a lot of money (that could be spent in Arkansas, WV, Ohio...) and doesn't influence any other state.
5. I wouldn't have bothered with most of the South. I would have taken Arkansas very seriously though.
6. I would have gone on and on and on about economic issues (inc. Poverty)
7. I would not have even dreamed of campaigning on wedge issues... in fact I'd have critized the more radical elements of the pro-choice lobby. Repeatedly.
8. More soon...


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Akno21 on January 12, 2005, 06:54:10 AM
1) Spent less on PA and more on OH.


How much margin for error did he have in PA? It's not as if he won that comfortably.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: dazzleman on January 12, 2005, 06:58:18 AM
I would have picked a VP candidate from either the midwest or southwest.  Those were areas where Kerry was competitive, while the south was not.

In picking the Breck Girl as his VP candidate, Kerry gambled everything on at least cracking the south, and he lost.

In terms of substance, Edwards added absolutely nothing to the ticket, plus he was no help to Kerry in the south, not even his home state.  Picking Edwards was clearly a major mistake.

There were others of course, but many consisted of political baggage predating the campaign that made it harder for Kerry to take the positions he needed to win without be a flip-flopper.  His patrician Massachusetts background was also a liability about which nothing could be done.

I would not have wanted to be John Kerry's campaign manager.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: J. J. on January 12, 2005, 12:07:39 PM
1.  In the Spring, Kerry drifted to the left on the war in order to fight Howard Dean, and ultimately leading to "I voted for the $87 million befor I voted against it."

I would have advised him on a "This is war badly made," strategy (ten points for who said it first).  Kerry should have suggested that the war was a good thing and Hussein was bad, but we needed more troops and a "smarter" management of the aftermath.

2.  Gephardt should have been the VP nominee.

3.  The DNC presented him to retrospectively.  After he saluted, his speech should have been something along the lines, "That was then, this is now."  It should have focused of "solving" the Iraq war.

4.  There should have been a stonger response to the "Swift Boat" ads.  Kerry should have released his records, prior to the DNC. 

5.  Forget FL in specific and the South in general.  The target of the campaign should have been the upper midwest, OH, PA, and MO.

6.  When asked about why some people are homosexual, he should have answered the question honestly and not suggested that the VP's daughter "who is a Lesbian" would the question would answer one way.  Here is the answer:

"I'm a candidate for president, not for a doctorate in genetics, behavioral sciences, or early childhood development.  I don't know the answer to why some people are Gay and some people are straight. 

I do know that some people are Gay and I believe that they should have the ability to to legally form unions with each other, as heterosexual couples do.  They are families and they should have at least some protection.

I also hope that the families, parents and siblings, will help and be supportive of Gay members.  I disagree with the politics Vice President Cheney, but I admire how supportive he, and his family, is of one of his daughter, who is a Lesbian, and openly so.  I know that for many it is troubling, but I hope that more American families will follow his example in supporting members who happen to be Gay.


Now, with that, we might have been going to the Kerry Inagural.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Blue Rectangle on January 12, 2005, 12:12:33 PM
Maybe we shouldn't criticize Kerry's electoral strategy too much.  He came close to winning the EV even though he lost the PV badly.  That proves that his allocation of resources was not that bad.

Example:  I thought from early on that Kerry spent way too much time and effort in PA.  As it turned out, Kerry only won PA by a slim margin and therefore he only spent enough resources their to barely win, which is the best strategy.

Now, I have plenty of criticism for the actions of Kerry and the DNC that caused Bush to win the PV so easily, but these actions were the result of core defects in message and philosophy, rather than problems with strategy.

Main problem:
Kerry pretty much supported the Iraq war in 2002.  He then drifted towards pretty much opposing the war in 2003.  By primary season'04, he was opposed to the war.  After nomination, he tempered his criticism so as not to be an "anti-war candidate" (a sure loser).  Kerry's chosen rebutal to the "anti-war" label was his medals, and to hope that no one brought up his protest days.

This plan was doomed.  The inconsistancies in Kerry's positions and actions were glaringly obvious.  There is nothing Kerry's team could have down to counter the Swifties that would have changed this basic fact.  The damage done by the Swifties was a direct result of Kerry's actions before SBVFT had run a single ad.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: opebo on January 12, 2005, 01:36:02 PM
Maybe we shouldn't criticize Kerry's electoral strategy too much.  He came close to winning the EV even though he lost the PV badly.  

This plan was doomed.  The inconsistancies in Kerry's positions and actions were glaringly obvious.  There is nothing Kerry's team could have down to counter the Swifties that would have changed this basic fact.  The damage done by the Swifties was a direct result of Kerry's actions before SBVFT had run a single ad.

Kerry did not loose the popular vote 'badly' - the margin was very narrow 50.73% to 48.27%.  In fact the electoral vote was lost by a much larger percentage - 53.16% to 46.65%.  It would be more accurate to say that Kerry barely lost the popular vote, and that the electoral college, as usual, favored the Republican.

As for the Swiftboat propaganda - this sort of falsehood always works well when used by the candidate of false, jingoistic patriotism against a relatively reasonable opponent.  Of course the irony in this case due to Bush's draft dogding was lost on the target audience, for obvious reasons.  In any case, none of the damage done by the Swiftboat fabrications had anything to do with Kerry's inconsistency about Iraq.  The subject at hand was kneejerk patriotism vs. reason, and we all know which appeals to more voters.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Nym90 on January 12, 2005, 01:41:56 PM
Actually the Electoral College didn't favor the Republicans this time. Kerry would have won the election if he had won Ohio, which he lost by 2.11% He lost the national popular vote by 2.46%, so it would have been easier for him to win Ohio than the national popular vote. So looking at it that way, the Electoral College actually biased towards the Democrats this time.

The candidate who wins the popular vote almost always does better in the electoral vote than in the popular vote (yes, 2000 was an exception), and ends up magnifying the margin of victory to make it look larger than it really was.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: ○∙◄☻„tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on January 12, 2005, 10:13:39 PM
Had him go negative on Bush.
Had him talk more about the economy.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Rob on January 12, 2005, 10:34:16 PM
1.Relentless negative attacks on Bush.

2.Gephardt.

3.Focused on economic issues.

4.Instant and visceral response; turn the tables with "National Guard Veterans for Truth".

5.Would have written off the South except for Arkansas.

6.Focused heavily on Ohio, along with Iowa, Missouri, and West Virginia.



Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: yinzer on January 12, 2005, 11:20:33 PM
I would have told him to get strait with  disgruntled Vietnam Vets.  It was a horrible strategy to run on Vietnam because he felt insulated by Bush's  TANG serevice.  Running on his service in Vietnam was folly. Wasn't the talking point from the DNV that it didn't matter in 1992 and 1996 when Clinton was running against war vets?


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: ATFFL on January 12, 2005, 11:24:53 PM
I would have told him to get strait with  disgruntled Vietnam Vets.  It was a horrible strategy to run on Vietnam because he felt insulated by Bush's  TANG serevice.  Running on his service in Vietnam was folly. Wasn't the talking point from the DNV that it didn't matter in 1992 and 1996 when Clinton was running against war vets?

Welcome to the forum.

You are right, running on Vietnam was foolish, but no one could convince him otherwise.  In past elections (including the primaries) Vietnam was this wondrous thing he could bring up and watch his poll numbers improve.  He continued to believe, right through the end, that mentioning Vietnam would help him even when it was hurting him from teh Swift Boat Vets and his refusal to release his military records.

Also, the campaign should have gone negative, but not Kerry.  The top of the ticket should look to be above that.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Silent Hunter on January 13, 2005, 06:00:15 AM
What would your message have been?

Bush is doing a good job abroad, but not so much at home. We must do better. More positivity, less negativity

Who would you have pushed for as VP?
Gephardt or Vilsack.

What would have been your platform?
I don't know. Probably more supportive of Iraq, less so of tax cuts
How would you have reacted to the Swift boat ads?

Would you have written of the entire South?
No.

Would you have spent less time in Ohio and more in the midwest?
Yes


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: skybridge on January 13, 2005, 07:00:44 AM
He should have taken another approach towards Iraq than "I would have done the same thing but better" to win the 2% of the PV he needed from those who weren't satisfied with "anybody but Bush."


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: J. J. on January 13, 2005, 10:57:01 AM
I would have done what James Carvelle did in 1992, and set up a 24 hour "war room" at campaign headquarters to IMMEDIATLEY respond to any Republican attacks/rumors/accusations.

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.  Kerry seems to have been looking toward Dukakis (1988), not Clinton (1992).


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: danwxman on January 14, 2005, 09:42:55 PM
One of the biggest failures was the horrible campaign ads. Bush's ads were soooooooo much better. What an embarassment.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: 2952-0-0 on January 15, 2005, 03:36:49 AM
I remember in August it was reported that Bush missed the deadline for signing up in South Dakota and Alabama, and that the deadline was extended so that his campaign workers could file in those states. State Democrats could have stopped that, but they didn't. It would have been hilarious if Bush loses two states he was sure to win because he had missed the deadline.

Anyway, I would have picked Richardson, or Clark, or Gephardt.

Then, I would have made the environment an issue since Bush is hughly bad there, and of course Iraq and the economy and high oil prices.

As for the swiftboat thingy, I would have reminded voters what Bush did back then.

I would have written off the south except MO and FL and campaigned in the southwest.

So there you have it. I send Bush steaming by making SD and AL Dems not let Bush on the ballot on those states, and I would have been more proactive.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: Defarge on January 15, 2005, 07:59:37 AM
For VP I would have pushed Gephardt, Bayh and Clark, in that order.  Gephardt and Bayh would have helped us in the Midwest, Bayh especially, opening up Indiana as a possibility.  Clark could potentially have helped in the South, but as time passes I'm beginning to doubt it. 

I would have responded to the swiftboat affair immediately, and nipped it in the bud. 

Meanwhile, in terms of electoral strategy, with Bayh or Gephardt I'd focus primarily on every state from MN to PA, minus Indiana if it's Gephardt.  Feint attacks on Florida, Arkansas and NM. 


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Akno21 on January 15, 2005, 08:51:15 AM
Bayh is not worth 20% as a VP, Defarge.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: GLOBAL DICTATOR on January 15, 2005, 02:01:11 PM
The one thing that I would have done would be to get him a motivational speaker to coach him on bringing a crowd to their feet and not have tp rely so heavily on entertainers and ex presidents to fill the gap for his lackluster public speaking ability.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: Defarge on January 15, 2005, 10:49:28 PM
Bayh is not worth 20% as a VP, Defarge.
I can dream about 11 EV's Akno :)


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: Akno21 on January 16, 2005, 12:02:10 PM
Kerry should have picked Lloyd Bentsen. 34 EV's right there. :)


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Erc on January 16, 2005, 04:27:55 PM
What would your message have been?
Bush messed up, but here's my plan for getting us out of it.  And it's not on johnkerry.com

Who would you have pushed for as VP?
Gephardt probably was the best of the bunch here.

What would have been your platform?
Concentrate mainly on the economy (especially in states where it's a problem)--present a viable plan for getting the country out of the so-called recession--appeal to small-town values, small business, etc.
On Security and Iraq--Kerry did very little to dissuade the public of the popular opinion that Democrats are weak on Security.  You have to say that you supported going into Afghanistan and Iraq, but you feel that the implementation's been screwed up royally.
Domestically, you just can't point out stuff about port security and the like--you have to present your own comprehensive plan.
On Iraq, don't concentrate so much about internationalism and the UN--Francophilia doesn't appeal to anybody.  Instead, concentrate on things like the disbanding of the Iraqi army, the slow pace of reconstruction, etc--and then present a plan to deal with Iraq on our own.
Never talk about the deficit.

How would you have reacted to the Swift boat ad's?
If he hadn't gone on and on about his bloody Vietnam service so much, this wouldn't have been an issue.

Would you have written of the entire South?

Not MO or FL, of course (although you can surreptitiously slip out of FL if necessary)...but also make a couple of tentative stabs at AR/VA to test the waters (and get Bush to spend money there).  Other than that, of course, the South is a lost cause.

Would you have spent less time in Ohio and more in the midwest?
Kerry generally had a good focus--there wasn't much more he could have gotten with that level of PV support.   The real question is what to do about the West (NV/NM/CO)--if you write that off, you can concentrate exclusively on the MN-OH belt.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Silent Hunter on January 17, 2005, 03:59:11 AM
What would your message have been?
Bush messed up, but here's my plan for getting us out of it.  And it's not on johnkerry.com

I certainly would not have had him refer to the website in the debate. It made him look like he didn't know his brief.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: BobOMac2k2 on January 19, 2005, 05:06:59 PM
I wouldn't have listened to the Clintons.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Lincoln Republican on January 25, 2005, 09:53:28 PM
I would have had John Kerry tell America that he was not really a Massachusetts liberal.

Don't spend so much time and money in Florida.  Did you learn nothing from the 2002 mid terms when the DNC spent a fortune trying to topple Jeb?

The choice of John Edwards was a total disaster.  If Kerry and Edwards were competing in hair spray and tooth paste commercials, they would have won hands down.   


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: The Vorlon on January 26, 2005, 07:01:12 PM
I would have picked ONE position on Iraq.  Either one could have worked, but it needed to be ONE position.

Edwards will help in the South..?  NOT

"What would Jesus do..?" is not the punchline to a joke.  Fire any staffer who thought it was.

Less attacking Bush, more explaining what he would have done differently.  A laundry list of complaints is NOT the same thing as an actual plan.

He needed to publically repudiate the HateBush looney left Mikhail Moore types


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: TomC on May 20, 2005, 08:49:55 PM
On Iraq I would have explained that voting for presidential authority on Iraq doesn't mean you give up the right (RESPONSIBILITY) to criticize him when he screws it up.

I would have picked Clark as VP.

I would have had a positive message about renewing democracy- making the system work FOR the people. He did okay attacking Bush (except Swift Vets) but he really had no positive message to say "This is why you vote FOR me." I would have run more positive TV commercials airing that positive message.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Citizen James on May 20, 2005, 09:13:42 PM
Go after Rove - point out strongly the similarity between the swift vets campaign and the smear campaign against McCain in 2000.

Point out the large number of high ranking administration officials in PNAC, and the extremist positions they hold.

Pick a VP with more gravitas.  Vilsack would have been an excelent pick, and could have flipped Iowa.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 21, 2005, 01:58:46 AM
Kerry ran the wrong campaign for 2004.  He ran a campaign emphasising Bush's faults rather than Kerry's virtues.  It would have worked had the economy or Iraq been worse in Noveber than it had been, but they weren't and there was no particular reason to expect that they would be.  The long time between when the nomination was fought over and when the general election was tripped up the Democrats in 2004.  Had the general election been in March 2004, Kerry would have won, but by November conditions had changed.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Gustaf on August 12, 2005, 05:56:24 AM
It seems to me that the analysis of the poor organization, especially in Ohio came a little too quickly...why didn't they relize that problem BEFORE the election? ???

Also, internal polling showed Kerry trailing quite badly throughout most of the campaign. I'll never get why they didn't act on the problems they faced earlier and more resolutely.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: dazzleman on August 12, 2005, 07:30:36 PM
Nobody can hope to win without a positive message.  Kerry really didn't offer one.  His message was simply that he was not George W. Bush.

Kerry was severely handicapped by having to rely on a very dovish base in a time of war.  This caused him no end of problems, and I don't know how he could have gotten around it.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: ○∙◄☻„tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on August 12, 2005, 07:34:23 PM
Nobody can hope to win without a positive message.  Kerry really didn't offer one.  His message was simply that he was not George W. Bush.

Kerry was severely handicapped by having to rely on a very dovish base in a time of war.  This caused him no end of problems, and I don't know how he could have gotten around it.

Umm, if you went to the Kerry website, you could learn all about Kerry. If you went to the Bush website, you could also learn all about Kerry. Suppose you wanted to know about the guy who had been President for the last 4 years? Tough luck. See a problem?


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: dazzleman on August 12, 2005, 07:44:05 PM
Nobody can hope to win without a positive message.  Kerry really didn't offer one.  His message was simply that he was not George W. Bush.

Kerry was severely handicapped by having to rely on a very dovish base in a time of war.  This caused him no end of problems, and I don't know how he could have gotten around it.

Umm, if you went to the Kerry website, you could learn all about Kerry. If you went to the Bush website, you could also learn all about Kerry. Suppose you wanted to know about the guy who had been President for the last 4 years? Tough luck. See a problem?

But very few voters go to the candidate's website.  He didn't articulate a positive message.  I'm not a big Kerry basher, so I'm not saying this to be disagreeable, but he seemed the think that not being Bush was enough.

Only under the most extraordinary circumstance can a person be elected president without a positive message that resonates with the public.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Kevin on August 13, 2005, 02:19:11 PM
 One reason Kerry lost was his VP pick. I would have chosen someone more moderate like Gephart, Rendell or Bayh.   


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: RJ on August 13, 2005, 06:13:34 PM
This is one of the most inciteful threads I've ever read on this forum.

There have been many excellent suggestions here, but there is 1 fundamental think I can't quite agree with. At the time, Edwards looked like the best bet. Looking back, it would be easy to say that choosing him was a major mistake, but he looked like the strongest candidate during the nomination process except of course for Kerry himself. Many people forget that. I'm still a little split on Edwards. I can't entirely say he was the best choice, but just because he didn't shoot off his mouth and bash the other side doesn't mean he didn't or couldn't do some good campaigning. I think he has some potential, but was just aq little too inexperienced. It's almost a shame what happened to his political career(at least for now). I would have to disagree with the choice of Gephart. I don't think much of his speaking capability or inspiring nature. I think he would have been under the radar similar to Edwards, only he wouldn't have an excuse.

Nobody can hope to win without a positive message. Kerry really didn't offer one. His message was simply that he was not George W. Bush.

Heading into the campaign, I thought Kerry had a huge advantage in that he wasn't George W. Bush. I couldn't imagine how he 1. could have done worse than Gore or 2. how people who didn't vote for Bush would actually vote for him this time. I honestly thought the election could be a slam dunk for the Democrats, and that's not just because of the D-OH in my profile. I thought if the Democratic candidate were breathing, he could defeat Bush. I underestimated the value of what Dazzleman just pointed out. Kennedy had an objective: Go to the moon. FDR had an objective: End the Great Depression. Nixon had an objective: "I have a plan to end Viet Nam." Whether or not you agree with their solutions, that greatly helped them in their campaigns.

Still a little split on the Edwards thing, but a great thread otherwise. Especially that point about the organization of the Democratic Party and the campaign management.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: dazzleman on August 13, 2005, 07:10:29 PM
RJ, you also have to realize that not as many people hated Bush as you thought.  Bush haters are very vocal, but much of their venom turned voters off, and pushed them into voting for Bush. 

There are also a good number of people who like Bush.  I learned a long time ago, if you want to predict the outcome of an election, you must go well outside your zone of comfort in asking people with many different opinions.  For example, I thought Bloomberg would win the NYC mayor election because a staunch Democrat who worked with me told me he was voting for Bloomberg.  To me that was an indicator that Bloomberg was connecting with a certain demographic that he needed to win, and that his opponent was turning off that demographic.  If I only talked to my friends and the people I associate with on a regular basis about the election, I would have expected Bush to win about 75% of the vote.

Hollywood was especially effective in bringing about the outcome it wanted least -- a Bush re-election.  Many Americans hold Hollywood in contempt to begin with, and when they all started dumping on Bush in a vicious way, many people, some of whom were probably not crazy about Bush, said, "if THOSE people really hate Bush, he must be OK," or alternatively, "if those people are so vociferously for Kerry, maybe we should reconsider."

Only under the most extraordinary circumstances can a candidate, especially a challenger to an incumbent president, win without a positive message.  A popular incumbent like Reagan can win with a "morning in America, four more years" type theme, but a challenger has to give voters a solid reason to turn out the incumbent, unless he is just so hated that a majority just want him out.  In some circles, Bush was hated like that, but clearly those people weren't a majority.

I think of the 1988 election as an exception.  George H.W. Bush ran an almost completely negative campaign and won.  Of course, he was a quasi-incumbent, understudy to a very popular incumbent who couldn't run.  And Dukakis was a numbskull.  But even so, I always thought that Bush's failure to lay out a goal or a program hobbled his presidency from the start, and led to a lot of the problems that he had during his term, culminating in his defeat for re-election.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: Adam Griffin on August 13, 2005, 08:24:09 PM
Have him back off of abortion entirely.

P.S.: Kerry won PA by 2.5% exactly.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: dazzleman on August 13, 2005, 08:28:18 PM
Have him back off of abortion entirely.

P.S.: Kerry won PA by 2.5% exactly.

Or maybe he should have refrained from gratuitously mentioning Mary Cheney's lesbianism during the debate.  He was trying to send a signal to vociferous gay rights groups who hate Mary Cheney because she hasn't condemned her father's politics, but I think it backfired.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Gustaf on August 14, 2005, 07:26:08 AM
Then, I would have made the environment an issue since Bush is hughly bad there

That's a joke right?

I think Kerry should have identified, through polling, the issues where Bush had support from swing voters and not attack that.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: skybridge on August 14, 2005, 01:11:06 PM
Then, I would have made the environment an issue since Bush is hughly bad there

That's a joke right?

I think Kerry should have identified, through polling, the issues where Bush had support from swing voters and not attack that.

No.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Gustaf on August 23, 2005, 09:24:19 AM
Then, I would have made the environment an issue since Bush is hughly bad there

That's a joke right?

I think Kerry should have identified, through polling, the issues where Bush had support from swing voters and not attack that.

No.

No to what? To it being a joke? I think he can answer for himself there, I'm gonna give him the benefit of the doubt until he does. Or are you refuting my idea?

Focusing the environment is one of the worse strategies I can think of. Not as bad as making gay marriage an issue, but not all that far behind.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on November 15, 2005, 12:29:41 AM
1.Decided where we stood on gay marriage. Either support local bans on gay marriage (as Bill Clinton advised Kerry to do) or gone after Bush for trying to write discrimination into the constitution. Either would have been fine, but you can't have it both ways.

2. Focused on iraq, but on what's going on in Iraq NOW, not what went on before we went in there. The thought of Saddam Hussein still being in power does not sit well with a lot of people.

3. Don't even try to go after Florida. As many people have remarked, Kerry came  close to winning the EV, and would have had he put a little bit more effort into Ohio. Also take the money saved by not going after Florida and invested it in CO, NV, AR, and IA, which together have as many votes as Florida, and all of which Kerry lost narrowly IIRC.

4. As others have suggested, put together an ad of Bush's worst moments and aired it nonstop

5. Don't make the campaign about Vietnam. IT'S NOT 1968 ANYMORE!!! Actually the whole Democratic party would do well to learn this.

6. Paint Bush as a spoiled rich frat boy who never had to do an honest day's work in his life

7. Run against the Saudis and emphasize Bush's close ties with them

8. Along the lines of No. 7, take the goal of energy independence seriously. It's an idea whose time has come.

9. The VP pick: Edwards was a very poor choice. Gephardt or Vilsack would have helped Kerry do better in the midwest. Wesley Clark would have been a good choice too, as he has military cred. If you want to disregard my 3rd piece of advice, pick Bob Graham. Or maybe Bill Richardson to help bring in the Latino Vote. So many good options, but he just had to go with Edwards


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: Reignman on June 03, 2006, 04:24:02 PM
Bob Shrum is a total loser, so it's safe to say we all would've done quite a bit differently.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Republican Michigander on June 03, 2006, 08:26:38 PM
I would have told him to withdraw and have Clark be the nominee.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: adam on June 04, 2006, 10:39:51 PM
What would your message have been?
I'm going to finish the war on terror in a timely manner and I'm going to do it without eroding your civil liberties.

Who would you have pushed for as VP?
Gephardt, better midwest appeal. I would have liked to see Lieberman more, but realistically that could have been bad for the numbers.

What would have been your platform?
* Indifferent on social issues (pro-states rights kind of thing)
* Economic conservation
* Tough war stance that DIDN'T CHANGE EVERY 30 MINUTES

How would you have reacted to the Swift boat ad's?
Would have spun it into slander.

Would you have written off the entire South?
The only state in the south that Kerry would have had a chance at is Florida. I would have run a few ads there, maybe set up a barnstorm or two. But I would have avoided whining about 2000 like the plague.

Would you have spent less time in Ohio and more in the midwest?
No, other way around.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Nym90 on June 05, 2006, 08:47:37 PM
Have him back off of abortion entirely.

P.S.: Kerry won PA by 2.5% exactly.

Or maybe he should have refrained from gratuitously mentioning Mary Cheney's lesbianism during the debate.  He was trying to send a signal to vociferous gay rights groups who hate Mary Cheney because she hasn't condemned her father's politics, but I think it backfired.

I always figured he was trying to do the opposite, and hope that the GOP base would sour on Bush/Cheney since Cheney hasn't condemned his daughter for her homosexuality. But yeah, in any event it was a stupid and not so nice thing to do; someone's personal history in that area should have no relevance on a Presidential campaign. Unfortunately both sides tend to revert to that kind of mudslinging in every election campaign.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 23, 2006, 03:16:54 AM
Frankly I think Edwards handled the Gay issue better than Kerry did.

1. Message: Bush is bad for the economy - outsourcing, tax breaks. Republicans do not hold a monopoly on patriotism.
- Much better ads.
Issues
- The economy
- Domestic security
- healthcare
- education

2. Vietnam is important, but because it forced front and centre to compare w/Bush - it opened Kerry up to the swiftboaters. In response Kerry should have come down like a ton of bricks.

3. VP Choice. I still think Edwards was a MUCH more effective campaigner than Kerry overall - Bayh would have been a safer choice.

4. Forget WV and the South.

5. Priority states. With special campaigners
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Iowa
Michigan
-------------
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
New Hampshire

Make token efforts in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee and Missouri.

Have Richardson, Napolitano and Hart as Kerry's SW Taskforce.

- Establish a WarRoom.



Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Joe Republic on September 23, 2006, 03:30:00 AM
3. VP Choice. I still think Edwards was a MUCH more effective campaigner than Kerry overall - Bayh would have been a safer choice.

Not sure I follow.  Edwards was an effective campaigner, so Kerry should have picked somebody else?


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 23, 2006, 03:41:54 AM
What I mean is, Edwards was not popular in NC - he was good at connecting with people one on one. But Bayh might have made IN competitive for the first time since the Johnson landslide or Perot sucking away the conservative vote in 92 and 96.

Edwards is a better campaigner.... but his dowry so to speak is not as useful. Bayh would bring a fatter cow? Probably would have helped with OH also.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different
Post by: patrick1 on September 23, 2006, 05:38:09 AM
What I mean is, Edwards was not popular in NC - he was good at connecting with people one on one. But Bayh might have made IN competitive for the first time since the Johnson landslide or Perot sucking away the conservative vote in 92 and 96.

Edwards is a better campaigner.... but his dowry so to speak is not as useful. Bayh would bring a fatter cow? Probably would have helped with OH also.

Indiana is not in play, a VP candidate does not make up a 20 point gap. 

I agree that Bayh may have helped in OH.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: dazzleman on September 23, 2006, 08:19:33 AM
Have him back off of abortion entirely.

P.S.: Kerry won PA by 2.5% exactly.

Or maybe he should have refrained from gratuitously mentioning Mary Cheney's lesbianism during the debate.  He was trying to send a signal to vociferous gay rights groups who hate Mary Cheney because she hasn't condemned her father's politics, but I think it backfired.

I always figured he was trying to do the opposite, and hope that the GOP base would sour on Bush/Cheney since Cheney hasn't condemned his daughter for her homosexuality. But yeah, in any event it was a stupid and not so nice thing to do; someone's personal history in that area should have no relevance on a Presidential campaign. Unfortunately both sides tend to revert to that kind of mudslinging in every election campaign.

If that's true, then he seriously misjudged the GOP people.  Few people, including the most conservative evangelical Christians, would expect a father to condemn his daughter in that manner.  The issue is much more about public policy toward gay marriage than it is about behavior within families.

What Kerry said was totally ridiculous on many fronts.  We really can't say that homosexuality is innate, as he suggested.  It may be, at least in some people.  It can also be a reaction to environmental factors.  Or some combination of the two.

Kerry was simply blindly asserting the doctrinaire gay rights movement dogma about homosexuality.  And I stand by my original analysis, that he was sending a signal of support to nasty gay rights groups by going after Mary Cheney.  I think you're right also about what Kerry hoped to do, but that was not in conflict with what I said, but additive to it.


Title: Re: If you were John Kerry's campaign manager what would you have done different?
Post by: dazzleman on September 23, 2006, 08:23:46 AM
What I mean is, Edwards was not popular in NC - he was good at connecting with people one on one. But Bayh might have made IN competitive for the first time since the Johnson landslide or Perot sucking away the conservative vote in 92 and 96.

Edwards is a better campaigner.... but his dowry so to speak is not as useful. Bayh would bring a fatter cow? Probably would have helped with OH also.

Edwards is a shallow phony.  The nickname "the Breck girl" suits him perfectly.

Kerry had to make a choice between trying to crack the south, or going after the midwest, or possibly the southwest.

He decided that if he could only crack the south, the rest would fall into place.  It would have worked had he been successful at it.  But he should have realized that it probably wouldn't work, since that was the area where Bush was least vulnerable.  He had a much better shot I think of capturing a couple more states in the midwest, or in the southwest, that would have put him over the top.