Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: Vosem on March 24, 2012, 12:48:32 PM



Title: A somewhat bizarre difference between AZ and NM
Post by: Vosem on March 24, 2012, 12:48:32 PM
How come, in NM, (in general) the further north you go the more Democratic the state becomes, while in AZ (in general) the further south you go the more Democratic the state becomes? I was looking at a map of congressional districts and realized this; the correlation is weaker but still exists with counties.

What's the explanation?


Title: Re: A somewhat bizarre difference between AZ and NM
Post by: politicus on March 24, 2012, 01:08:22 PM
How come, in NM, (in general) the further north you go the more Democratic the state becomes, while in AZ (in general) the further south you go the more Democratic the state becomes? I was looking at a map of congressional districts and realized this; the correlation is weaker but still exists with counties.

What's the explanation?
Hispanics. Old Spanish population in northern NM.


Title: Re: A somewhat bizarre difference between AZ and NM
Post by: RI on March 24, 2012, 02:06:12 PM
Yeah, different source of Hispanics. The Hispanics in Arizona mostly are 20th/21st century immigrants from Mexico who have stayed fairly close to the border, plus the city of Tucson has some white liberals, and its fairly far south. New Mexico has some of that in Las Cruces, but for the most part their Hispanics are direct descendants of Spanish settlers from the 1500s who've lived in that one area of northern New Mexico for centuries.


Title: Re: A somewhat bizarre difference between AZ and NM
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on March 24, 2012, 02:27:40 PM
How come, in NM, (in general) the further north you go the more Democratic the state becomes, while in AZ (in general) the further south you go the more Democratic the state becomes? I was looking at a map of congressional districts and realized this; the correlation is weaker but still exists with counties.

What's the explanation?

I can get you more maps if you like!  :D


Title: Re: A somewhat bizarre difference between AZ and NM
Post by: Vosem on March 24, 2012, 04:33:46 PM
OK; looking at another map, I seem to realize that the New Mexico-Old Mexico border is rather short, but where it is is there's also a Democratic region; and that there's a historic Hispanic community in northern New Mexico. I think I got it.


Yes, please!


Title: Re: A somewhat bizarre difference between AZ and NM
Post by: Indy Texas on March 31, 2012, 01:01:18 AM
Northern Arizona has a sizable Mormon population, which tends to vote Republican.

Southern NM, particularly SW NM is sometimes called Little Texas. It resembles West Texas, demographically and politically (flinty, hardscrabble ranchers and über-conservative oil/gas interests).


Title: Re: A somewhat bizarre difference between AZ and NM
Post by: minionofmidas on March 31, 2012, 04:08:36 AM
Northern Arizona has a sizable Mormon population, which tends to vote Republican.

Southern NM, particularly SW NM is sometimes called Little Texas.
That's East New Mexico - far northeast as well as southeast. Basically what shows the largest swing here:

()

()

(2000 presidential and 2002 gubernatorial. Harry Teague's 2008 House win also depended on Little Texans' penchant to occasionally desert the GOP en masse. Though obviously not, not in a long time, in presidential elections.)


Title: Re: A somewhat bizarre difference between AZ and NM
Post by: Indy Texas on March 31, 2012, 11:49:51 PM
Northern Arizona has a sizable Mormon population, which tends to vote Republican.

Southern NM, particularly SW NM is sometimes called Little Texas.
That's East New Mexico - far northeast as well as southeast. Basically what shows the largest swing here:

()

()

(2000 presidential and 2002 gubernatorial. Harry Teague's 2008 House win also depended on Little Texans' penchant to occasionally desert the GOP en masse. Though obviously not, not in a long time, in presidential elections.)

Meant to say SE and typed SW for some reason. I stand corrected.


Title: Re: A somewhat bizarre difference between AZ and NM
Post by: minionofmidas on April 01, 2012, 04:21:13 AM
Yeah, happens to a lot of people. Me included.


Title: Re: A somewhat bizarre difference between AZ and NM
Post by: ottermax on April 01, 2012, 11:48:07 PM
Why exactly do NM Hispanics vote Democratic? It's not like immigration really affects those in the North who have lived there for centuries. Isn't there a large White "latte" liberal pop. up in Northern New Mexico too?


Title: Re: A somewhat bizarre difference between AZ and NM
Post by: tpfkaw on April 02, 2012, 12:15:46 AM
Why exactly do NM Hispanics vote Democratic? It's not like immigration really affects those in the North who have lived there for centuries. Isn't there a large White "latte" liberal pop. up in Northern New Mexico too?

NM Hispanics (or, rather, the "native" ones) vote more like white Catholics than normal Hispanics.  They vote Democratic for the same reason white Catholics of similar socio-economic status do.


Title: Re: A somewhat bizarre difference between AZ and NM
Post by: RI on April 02, 2012, 06:06:30 PM
Isn't there a large White "latte" liberal pop. up in Northern New Mexico too?

Only in Taos County (art and ski bums) and a handful in Santa Fe and Albuquerque. Otherwise it's all Hispanics and Native Americans voting Dem.


Title: Re: A somewhat bizarre difference between AZ and NM
Post by: Napoleon on April 03, 2012, 02:28:39 AM
Why exactly do NM Hispanics vote Democratic? It's not like immigration really affects those in the North who have lived there for centuries. Isn't there a large White "latte" liberal pop. up in Northern New Mexico too?

Santa Fe.


Title: Re: A somewhat bizarre difference between AZ and NM
Post by: minionofmidas on April 03, 2012, 04:07:27 AM
Isn't there a large White "latte" liberal pop. up in Northern New Mexico too?

Only in Taos County (art and ski bums) and a handful in Santa Fe and Albuquerque.
And they're not a majority of the Dem vote in Taos County. Though "handful" is not an accurate description for Santa Fe.