Talk Elections

Well since no one else has done it that I can see, I guess I will so that we can all savor Rick's triumph in Louisiana together.

Actually, I am starting it, because this dude (http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/03/24/louisiana-exit-polls-louisiana-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-gop-primary-march-24/) seems to be leaking the exit poll, or pulling numbers from his butt, or something. I really have no idea, nor do I know who he is. Anyway, it seemed to me that this kind of spam or whatever, should be put in the chat thread. :)

Santorum's numbers seem low, and Mitten's numbers seem high.

It's probably either some polling someone did or numbers he made up. Very unlikely to be actual exit polling.

Exit polling six hours before the end of actual voting?
Ok.

It could early numbers, but I don't believe them.

If they are exit polls, that's good news for Santorum as he does his worst in the earliest exit polls.

Hey px, to keep yourself out of trouble for a few minutes, why don't you read (http://www.BillSpetrino.com/2012/03/23/open-letter-rick-santorum/) the guy's "open letter" letter to Rick?  I mean, if you think the Mittbots around here are insufferable ... :P

Here's a lagniappe for you just to wet your appetite:

Louisiana will be a protest vote of the conservative base. Nothing more or less...Likely will give Santorum 3-5 more delegates then Romney.

Yeah, that is very true. I wonder why that is...olds? If Santorum is leading by 9 early, he should win by close to 15 I would think.

Mittens is now closing in!  

Latest update Santorum 41 Romney 35 Gingrich 16 Paul 8

Maybe in a couple of more updates, Mittens will pull into the lead. Maybe this race will be over before the polls close.  :P

I'll wait for real exit polls, thanks. :P

Does anyone know what time the polls close?

8pm cdt
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/LA-R

Reading his text give me the impression that he is running his own exit poll. I think maybe he might need to switch his medications. You know, they try one, and if it doesn't work, they switch to another, and when they find the one that works - voila you can then, and only then, diagnose just what subspecies of psychosis someone has. And I am not making this up - that is actually how the skrinks diagnose mental illness.

I posted a link to this guy's poll during IL. He got it wrong.

Indeed.  Brings tears to my eyes.

We'll still be in #atlasforum tonight; LA is boring so don't come for that, come for la communidad!

Etch a sketch is no big deal (http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/exit-poll-of-la-gop-presidential-voters-say-few-consider-etch-a-sketch-flap-important/2012/03/24/gIQANZyQYS_story.html) to LA primary voters. No surprise really.

Guys, as we've been over countless times, the media itself doesn't get the exit polls until 5pm Eastern, so any supposed leaks before that are certainly fake.

I'm off to see if there are any stories yet on the real exit polls...

News story on the actual exit polls:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/exit-poll-of-la-gop-presidential-voters-say-few-consider-etch-a-sketch-flap-important/2012/03/24/gIQANZyQYS_story.html

More exits:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/strong-conservatives-turn-out-in-louisiana/

Lower Evangelical turnout could be bad news for Santorum.  Mittens carried the Tea Party vote in IL.  This might be closer than we thought.

Have you heard of the Cajuns?

No, it's just the nature of Louisiana demographics.  In the 2008 exit polls, only about half of McCain voters in Louisiana identified as evangelicals.  That's actually closer to Illinois (36%) than it is to Alabama (71%) or Mississippi (77%).  A 60% evangelical electorate is not unexpected news, and doesn't challenge the primary polls we've seen so far.

Read about why types of Roman Catholics are turning out. Evangelicals might not make up as much of the vote because of the amount of Catholics and it's religious Catholics turning out.

Also, I doubt Tea Partiers are as conservative in IL as they are in LA.

By the way, way to ignore how the amount of people saying they're "very conservative" might be record breaking. Not good for Mitt.

I think we discussed the different demographics.  That might end up making this race closer.

...?

No, I'm saying that Santorum's strongest support is from Evangelicals.  There are not as many as in other southern states, so that was a weakness Santorum.

Romney has done reasonably well with "very conservative" voters, at least better than with Evangelicals.  Nobody is talking about a Romney upset, but possibly a closer race than we thought.

It's not like the Louisiana polling has been assuming a vastly more evangelical electorate or something.

Also, Romney may have won the Tea Party vote in Illinois, but he sure won't be in Louisiana.

Yes, the Cajun aspect may not a be a demographic that is picked up very well by the Sean Trende model perhaps, and it will be interesting to see how much they vote like Evangelicals versus white Catholics that are in some concentration elsewhere. The best guess I would think is somewhere in-between. The Trende model would give Mittens about 33%-34% of the vote in LA, and Mittens if the model is right won't get much higher than that with Newt pulling 15% of the vote or so, and if Cajuns are labeled "non-Evangelical," it might be a tad lower, although I suspect not much, since I would guess their educational level is rather low and that would be picked up in the model.

Moreover, outside the urban zones, the Cajun vote in the rural areas is just not that large of the share of the pie anyway, and in LA the Cajun area urban zones go their own way. LA is a very class oriented state under the surface. Huey Long is not totally dead.

Anyway, this is what I was musing about when I came up with my prediction guess, when I ended up at 32% for Mittens.

And as I said, he makes that up with more religious Catholics in a deeply conservative state.

Question: are the evangelicals in Louisiana more middle-class suburban or more rural poor in demographic? Or mixed?

Umm, no. In the Midwest, Santorum's run about the same with both groups. In the South, he's done much better with "very conservative" voters than with evangelicals.

Maybe you were thinking of "severely conservative" voters, J.J.?

Alabama Exit Poll:
"Very conservative": Santorum 41 Romney 18
Evangelical: Santorum 35 Romney 27

Mississippi Exit Poll:
Very Conservative: Santorum 39 Romney 22
Evangelical: Santorum 35 Romney 29

Illinois Exit Poll:
Very Conservative: Santorum 48 Romney 37
Evangelical: Santorum 46 Romney 39

Ohio Exit Poll:
Very Conservative: Santorum 48 Romney 30
Evangelical: Santorum 47 Romney 30

Most of Louisiana's evangelicals are in the more rural northern end of Louisiana. The southern part is surprisingly Catholic, though a good chunk of those are Cajuns in the southwest.

LOL, I like how J.J. ignores the numerous demographic numbers in that post that are good news for Santorum and focuses on the one that would be good news for Romney if you know absolutely nothing about Louisiana.

In the north Baptist zone, it's like Alabama - "everyone" is Evangelical. In the south, middle class urban area voters don't vote like Evangelicals. The Cajuns outside N.O. and Baton Rouge do their own thing.

I gave it 30% Mitten, 45% Rick, in my prediction.  I'm still expecting double digits, but it might be lower.

We've been talking about the demographic difference for a while.  This one might be closer than we thought.

J. J., are you arguing anything besides "Louisiana might be closer because the demographics are different than the rest of the South"?  I'm fine with that argument, with two caveats:

1. There's no reason to believe that the polls were expecting the wrong demographics.

2. The exit polls show demographics that are just fine for Santorum, relative to expectations.  The exit polls give us no reason to believe the polls had the wrong demographics, and the polls would have to be wrong for a reason other than predicting the wrong sort of demographic turnout.

So, if you're willing to make those two concessions, we're on the same page.  Of course, this same argument could apply to most every state with wonky demographics in most every election, and doesn't appear any likelier than it did before we saw the exit polls.

It could be closer than we thought, sure...but is there reason to believe, from the exit polls, it's any likelier to be?  Nope...

The Evangelical share of the pie in the exit poll just about matches the Sean Trende figures. The electorate that turned out is no big surprise at all.

In the second case, I think you are making an assumption that LA Catholics behave more like Evangelicals.  I am not sure that is correct.

More exits:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57403966-503544/early-exit-polls-most-louisiana-gop-voters-say-etch-a-sketch-controversy-not-a-factor/

Jeff Greenfield says on Twitter that Santorum won men and women by 15.

The only real question is if Mitt Romney breaks 25%. And yes, after his overpolling in AL/MS, it's a very legitimate question.

I read that last exit poll as Mittens gets no less than 30% of the vote, and no more than 40%.  Mittens wins big with the winner and right experience group, and loses even bigger with the character and strong conservative group.

I'm having a difficult time seeing how Romney doesn't break 25%. Santorum would have to win by quite a bit.

If that is right, JJ's prediction looks pretty good at 45-30, with Newt getting 15% and others 10% or something, mix and match.

No, I'm not making that assumption.  I explicitly said that "polls would have to be wrong for a reason other than predicting the wrong sort of demographic turnout."  That would include Romney performing better among Catholics, which you seem to be suggesting is more probable than assumed, based on Catholics in other states.  There is nothing to suggest the electorate is atypical, so there is nothing to suggest that the polls have systemically messed up, or sampled the wrong sort of Catholic, or something.  Is it possible?  Yes.  Do we have any indications that this is happening?  No.  Did the exit polls give us any reason to assume it's true?  No.

Which, of course, may destroy him in the end given that his favorables among the wider general electorate suck

Would it appease Romney supporters to know that in 2008 McCain carried Catholics

To be fair, he was riding high on momentum from super Tuesday.

For the record, Louisiana Cathoics do behave, politicially, much more like evangelicals than Catholics elsewhere.

No, because the demographics with McCain were substantially different than Romney's.  Among other things, Romney was his opponent for awhile. :) But it is more than that.

The issue is how much more.  Half way, two thirds of the way, or all of the way?  :)

In her Senate re-election in 2008, Mary Landrieu lost Catholics winning 36% of the white Catholic vote and 28% of the white Protestant vote; with Obama winning, 12% and 11%, respectively

So, yes, politically, more similar than different

Why are the counties called parishes instead of counties? Anything to do with the french connections or catholicism?

Both.

CNN calls Louisiana for Santorum.

As does MSNBC.

Exit polls are Santorum 46.5 to Romney 28

Exit poll is Santorum +19 (Santorum 47%, Romney 28%, Gingrich 16%)

edit: damn lief

Well Mittens won the over 200K group. :)

Santorum has a slight, slight chance at breaking 50%. ;)

Santorum would have won 59-36 in a two-person race. Dumps some cold water on Gallup's numbers.

Yep, Santorum has this one. Not shocking.

That is clearly below the Trende model for Mittens. It will be interesting to take a look at it.

The 12% for Mittens with the below 50K group must be a record low.

Protestant (57%): Santorum +23%
Catholic (37%): Santorum +11%

Born-again (55%): Santorum +33%
Not born-again (45%): Romney +1%

Two-way race:
Santorum 59%
Romney 36%
Wouldn't have voted 4%

Amusingly, a handful of voters would have changed their Romney/Santorum preferences if Gingrich wasn't on the ballot.

Good job, frontrunner.

This is one of the few states in which it's exactly 50/50 between men and women (at least in early exits).  Usually in a GOP primary, men slightly outnumber women.

It looks like our first returns will be early voting totals.  So far, Romney leads Iberville Parish and Santorum leads a handful of others.  Even in early voting, Gingrich doesn't appear to be much of a factor.

First votes in already.

Santorum 39%
Romney 30%
Gingrich 22%
Paul 6%

LOL, another substantial loss for the inevitable frontrunner. Has he been redefeated in Missouri yet?

>Run JJ.EXE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlvgcQ2Y8M0

Exits look good for Santorum, about 46/28

If the exits are correct, Santorum looks to have done about 5 points better than the polls said.

Roemer at 2.4%

Would have been funny if Paul lost to Roemer. Oh well. :(

Early vote for Santorum in first Cajun parish over 50%.

Santorum winning Catholics (37%), 43-32 and moderates/liberals (24%), 38-30

Voters who thought the economy was the most important issue picked Santorum over Romney, 45-31. And look at low-income voters:

under 30k: Santorum 64 Romney 12
30-50k: Santorum 48 Romney 22.

Roemer just shy of 2%.

Obama at 67% over John Wolfe (16%), "Bob" Ely (10%) and Darcy Richardson (7%).

Obama only has 65% of the Democratic vote so far.

Delegates should be Santorum 9-10, Romney 5-6, Uncommitted 9-10.

New Orleans will push him higher. Oklahoma will probably be his worst performance of the primary. 

West Virginia could give OK a run for its money.

As always, come discuss the Santorumslide at #atlasforum (http://cbe003.chat.mibbit.com/).

I'm starting to see signs of meaningful, although very variable, swings toward Santorum in second-wave ballots -- everything from no swing to massive, 45-point swings.

I recall being in Prague at the time of the South Carolina primary and jumping for joy when Newt won .... "We have a race. We have a race" ... but someway along the line he blew it

A Santorum sweep of the parishes, or something very close to it, would not surprise me at this point.

Romney's leading by hairs save Caddo (Shreveport), which Obama flipped in 2008

I like how Google will report Perry, Bachmann and Huntsman, but not Roemer, who's ahead of all three of them.

Still nothing from Orleans or Jefferson Parishes.

Romney's lead in Caddo Parish down to 2%.

The map is going to look a lot like Missouri.

Any hope of Santorum crossing 50 and Romney crashing below 25?

Clearly Santorum could win it yet

Caddo was a 23-point swing from early votes.

Obama is losing Livingston Parish.

His lead in La Salle Parish is 2.1%.

So far, among counties that have reported second-wave ballots, the overall swing is Santorum +13.3%, Romney -7.5%, with Gingrich also significantly down.

Willard slowly drifting closer to 25%.

Wow, St. Martin Parish is actually noncontiguous.

Santorum now up by 10% in Caddo.

With 28% reporting, Caddo flips to strong Santorum.  Early Caddo ballots were 40%-32% Romney.  New Caddo ballots are 48%-31% Santorum.

Romney's lead in Bienville is almost certainly toast.  Nothing from Jefferson or Orleans.

Massive Santorum blowout. This guy underpolls in states he wins, big time.

Figures.

Still nothing from Orleans, so Rick's lead could shrink, though at this rate he might have won there too.

Santorum now at 49% on CNN.

Although urban areas are now significantly underreported, Romney is teetering dangerously close to 25%.

Could we get 50-25?

Santorum now leads in all counties parishes with votes reported.

According to the SoS, Obama is now leading in Livingston on 34%; he's running 3rd in West Carroll

Why?

Don't think there are enough Republicans there to matter too much. McCain got about 3% of his LA votes from Orleans. Obama got about 15% there.

True. Jefferson Parish is another story though.

I can already tell that this state is going to look rather odd on the national county map.

What's up with Ron Paul at St. Bernard? He gets 15% there, almost three times his state numbers.

College town, maybe?

Orleans finally starts to come in. Romney up there 47%-24%, but not a ton of votes.

At-large delegate split should be Santorum 10, Romney 5, Uncommitted 10.

Yeah, Livingston Parish is disgustingly red.

Area was totally leveled by the hurricane, for what that's worth. Not sure what's happened since.

That guy had a real scoop, no kidding!

Way too few to be early votes plus 18% of the actual precincts, I think.  Watch second-wave ballots closely here.  Granted, it'd have to be an unusually big swing for Santorum to win the parish.

CNN has Santorum at 50% now.

Obama lost La Salle Parish.  That's Jena.

FWIW, he lost by 14 votes.

WTF ON CNN? It's 3 hour past midnight and  tv show elecions is just began! :/

Given past history, I am really surprised that anyone thought Mitt would get over 30%.

From wiki:

The parish is split into two noncontiguous parts because of a surveying error dating to 1868, when Iberia Parish was created by the Louisiana Legislature. St. Martin has the highest percentage of French-speaking residents of any county or parish in the United States.

The precinct level results in La Salle are... somewhat expected.  Obama won one precinct 41-1.  He received zero votes in a whole bunch of other precincts.

Santorum now up by 17% in Caddo Parish. lolswing.

In the South, especially the rural South, there are black precincts and there are white precincts.  :)

Most of what's reported in Orleans so far are the heavily-black precincts. It's no surprise that there are few Republican primary voters.

I like one of the CNN exit poll numbers, it has the same numbers as results, vote by age 18-29:8% (like Paul and that's his age group), 30-44 17% (like Newt), 45-64 49% (Santorum), 26% 65+ (like Mitt, and that's where he does well.

True enough but aren't African-Americans more scattered across Louisiana relative to the rest of the Deep South?

Romney is now under 30% in Caddo Parish (Shreveport), which he won solidly in early votes.

Still nothing from Jefferson and only early votes from the GOP parts of Orleans.

41% of Orleans now in.  No swing toward Santorum to speak of.  Safe Romney.

Depressing, that.  About 1,000 votes in the completely noncompetitive 2000 primaries.  Now what?  Shy of 700?  Yikes.


I don't see any way Romney will get less than 25% of the statewide vote.

Romney would have to do poorly in Jefferson Parish to fall under 25% at this point, although even with his Orleans landslide half-in, he's still at 26%.

And on the Dem side, Obama is doing spectacularly bad in northern LA. He lost LaSalle Parish and has won  others with 30-40% of the vote.

The blacks in LaSalle are packed into two precincts in Ward 10.  There may be a few blacks in other places in LaSalle, maybe like 10 or so, and they may well still be slaves, or at best sharecroppers, for all I know.

Finally have some votes in from Jefferson Parish. Santorum up 48-29.

Jefferson is 48%-29% Santorum with 11% in.  Terrible performance for Romney, especially if he falls in later ballots.  It's no longer a near-sure thing he'll break 25%, although it's quite probable.

Santorum hovering around 50% again.

Edit: Bacon King would like to remind everyone that East Bank and West Bank Jefferson Parish are very different places, so hang tight for new ballots.

One thing is for sure: Gingrich is completely dead. And buried. And rotting.

C'mon Santorum.
You can break 50%.
I've got one point riding on this.

They prefer the term "interns" in order to comply with state labor laws.

BaconKing reports that Jefferson Parish precincts are disproportionately favorable to Santorum, and the end result should be significantly closer.

Now 81% reporting, with Jefferson at 11% and Orleans at 41%.  Santorum leads 50%-26%.

Hard to see Romney falling below 25% or Santorum breaking 50%.  Effectively impossible if BK is right about the precincts, which I'm sure he is.

Keep in mind, though, Romney just needs to do better than 25% to keep his head above water.  It would take an epic fail for him to be doing worse than that in the Jefferson/Orleans that's left.  An entertainingly epic fail, but an epic fail nonetheless.

Delegates are going to be Santorum 10, Romney 5, Uncommitted 10. Really unlikely that that changes at this point.

Sign of how irrelevant this win probably is:  Pretty much every media outlet mentions Romney's high delegate lead in their headline captions.

Santorum is cleaning up in the north.  It's closer in the Cajun areas, but he's still winning.

Santorum is winning???

22% more of Jefferson in (to 33%) and Santorum actually did slightly better in these new ballots.  It's possible that's just the remainders of Santorum's stronghold areas coming in, though.

Also up to 67% reporting in Orleans.  A slightly better batch for Santorum this time, but Romney still won it by about 10 points.

Ultimately I also think it is irrelevant but you don't think this will be a big topic on the various Sunday junkets?  I envision all the round tables questioning Romney's strength and base of support. etc.  

Jefferson up to 48% reported and the new batch was better for Romney; the parish tightens to 46%-30% Santorum.

Santorum falls just a bit below 49.5% statewide.

Edit: And then a small Jefferson bump for Santorum.

88% reporting.

Yes, for the first time, in six weeks, Santorum has a day where he gains delegates over Romney.

Santorum finished at 50.5% in Caddo Parish.

Congratulations to Santorum - an expected victory but impressive. Too bad for him that it hardly awards any actual delegates.

Jefferson is 89% reporting, tightening to Santorum 45%-32% as he "only" wins new ballots by 11 points.

Romney isn't going to fall under 25%.  Santorum is very unlikely to hit 50%.

94% reporting.

Edit: And then 97% reporting, with not much change.

I expected Gingrich to perform better upstate. He hasn't been able to push Santorum below 40% anywhere.

wathever happen, romney will not beat obama. All this money for nothing...

Louisiana county parish :P map:

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What is an "unplegged RNC" ???

Wolfe beat Obama in 3 parishes.

map?

Wolfe won La Salle, Grant, and Cameron.

LOL, the most racist counties.

Here is the Democratic race so far:

() (http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp131/rarohla/2012DemocraticPresidentialPrimariesbyCounty.png)

The heart of David Duke country and that place that voted for Landrieu while giving Obama 16%. Though perhaps its interesting that they're still voting in Democratic primaries.

Well, LA is a closed primary and they did vote for Edwards in 2008 even though he had already dropped out.

Obama got more votes than Santorum, in LOUISIANA, and being uncontested ?

WTF ?

Closed primary. Louisiana has 1.4M registered Dems and 775K registered Republicans.

And the 3 parishes Obama lost all went for McCain with over 80% in 2008

LA Dixiecrats haven't changed their registration like in other states, because of the jungle primary.

Some of high ranking members of the Republican National Committee in some states get to choose who they want to support, not based on the vote of their state.

What a slaughter. I'm a little surprised by the margin. Late deciders came in huge for Santorum.

Also, it's cool that John Wolfe did so well. He seems like a solid dude. Of course, it's a shame that most of the people who voted for him were probably anything but left-wing (like he very much is)...

lol Louisiana

Final margin is 22 points, Santorum did 8% better than the polling average predicted.

Nice!

three additions

solid 90+ for Mississippi, Illinois, and Ohio. If other unopposed primaries are included

If my precinct allocation is correct, Obama placed fourth in the City of Jena, receiving just over 10% of the vote:

Wolfe 13
Ely 4
Richardson 4
Obama 3

In the National Armory precinct, the black area just went of Jena, Obama received 41 of 42 votes, or 98% of the vote.  Excluding this black precinct, Obama also placed last in LaSalle Parish, with Wolfe receiving 81 votes, Ely 43, Richardson 27, and Obama 21, or 12% of the Democratic vote.

Two-thirds of Obama's vote in Lasalle County came from the National Armory precinct, compared to less than 1% of the votes for the other candidates.  The National Armory precinct cast 20% of the vote in the Democratic primary overall, and cast only 2% of votes in the Republican primary.

Deep South precinct results are a thing of horror.

Does Obama lose many additional counties or parishes when his vote is compared to the combined totals of all non-Obama candidates?

Yeah, thanks!  The shading is what I was curious about.

There were also elections for party officials on the ballot, so it wasn't completely pointless for Democrats to go vote.

I was predicting a 15 point win, and I was on high side of predictions.

It is being spun, even in PA, as meaningless, however.  The local news ran the story at 11:12 PM, and noted the lead Romney had in delegates.  The story ran after the the teaser weather segment.

Mittens did get drubbed. He ran about 5% below what the Sean Trende demographic regression analysis predicted. If replicated for the balance of the campaign, the odds suddenly shoot up to maybe 50-50 that the race will not be decided until the convention. That to me is the big story of this otherwise near irrelevant primary. Delegate wise, Mittens dodged a bullet by getting two points over the 25% threshold to get any delegates, so his vote falloff cost him a grand total of one delegate (7 delegates out of 20 rather than eight).

So what is the problem?  One problem might be that the regression analysis could not handle Cajun white Catholics because they just are not like white Catholics in some concentration elsewhere, and the education factor just was not enough to pick up the difference. If that is the problem, Mittens does not need to worry much. Or was it etch a sketch? Late deciders did vote about 4 points more for Santorum, and about 20% of the voters claimed it was an important factor in their vote, and 39% a factor. Whether that was an excuse for why one voted the way they did, or not as much a factor as folks said, one doesn't know. But it could have been.

Here is an interesting graphic from the CNN poll (http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/la):

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60% of the Newt voters say Romney is their second choice. Yes, Newt got the percentage the polls predicted, but maybe some of the Romney vote peeled off to Newt over etch a sketch. Maybe. In any event, it may well not be in Santorum's interest for Newt to drop out now, if this break in Newt's support is in any way representative of his remaining support elsewhere.

Anyway, I hope Sean Trende writes an article on all of this. I would be interested in his take of course. I mean he knows the coefficients of his equation, and I don't.

Finally, despite that rather cruel vignette I put up making fun of some Pub voters in Shreveport, the Pub Louisiana voters are a remarkably educated group, with only 17% not having gone to college, and 20% having had post graduate study.  It seems that Louisiana is remarkably similar to Cambridge, Massachusetts or something. :)

Or maybe their memories are faulty. It is a reminder that maybe folks are not totally forthcoming about either themselves, or the actual reasons they voted for someone, and just pick a reason from the list they are given that seems most "acceptable" or politically correct.

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