Talk Elections

absolutely.

he is from a supposed 'swing state'

he is a far right fundie, which (in theory) would help mitt with the white, southern fundie crowd.

I think Romney is doing so poor with Latinos, that he's going to have to choose Rubio or Martinez.

lost cause.

mitt is doing poor among blacks too.  dont expect him to pick a black running mate.  :)

It's not a lost cause. He can't win without Nevada and Colorado. Rubio and Martinez would at least help him replicate McCain's result with the voting bloc.

This

He can, but his victory would likely be 270-268.

McDonnell is neither southern nor a fundie (fundie Protestant at least). He was born in Philadelphia, lives in the DC suburbs and is Catholic. He could still perhaps excite southern fundies but isn't really either himself.

where he was born is irrelevant.

and catholics can be fundies too...just look at rick santorum.  and as the primaries have shown us, white southerners trust the catholic fundie over the mormon.

I think Susana Martinez is the best choice for VP.

yeah.  'game change' was such a good book/movie...we all want a sequel.

What makes Rubio any less of a potential Palin sequel? Why are people assuming that just because she is a governor who was elected two years ago and is a woman that she will somehow be a repeat of Palin?

In spite of what Rubio says, I remain convinced that he'll be Romney's pick for VP. There's really no upside to picking McDonnell, as recent polls debunk the myth that he would somehow deliver Virginia for Romney.

I love him, but absolutely not. Anyone outside of Jeb Bush, due to those Latin voting numbers recently released, who has endorsed Romney can't be on his ticket. You have to pull from the right, from Santorum-Gingrich territory to unite the party and appease conservatives.

VP picks help with undecideds and turnout. There's really no reason a poll would pick up on that at this point.

The idea some people have here that McDonnell is some kind of culture warrior is ridiculous.

Virginia Beach is in the DC suburbs? News to me.

I never accused Bob McDonnell of being a culture warrior, honestly I haven't paid much attention to him. I'm just going by the data that is available, which shows a negligible one point uptick for Romney in Virginia when McDonnell is added to the ticket. Furthermore, history shows that VP picks are most often inconsequential in determining the winner of their home state. Picking McDonnell won't help Romney anywhere he will truly need it (independents and women).

>Implying Susana Martinez is in any way equivalent to Sarah Palin outside of the fact that they're both women

He's in the top 3.

The vaginal ultrasound thing sure doesn't help his case.  That'll probably get a lot of play if he gets picked.

Also, with regard to Palin/Martinez comparisons, I think part of what Palin illustrated is that you don't know what you're going to get when you take a governor whose only experience is on state issues, and throw her onto the national stage with little prep time.  That's why Palin was the first VP pick by either party with zero Washington experience since the 1970s.  That's why first term senator Rubio is "safer" than picking a first term governor.  He's already a US Senator, so he deals with national issues every day.

Rubio is a 20-monther who furthermore has been Shermanesque throughout this cycle on VP. On McDonnell, I think publicly lobbying for the job is unbecoming. Probably hurt him with Team Romney and Mittens himself. Also, he's gotten too much speculation- as VP nominees Powell, McCain, Danforth and Pawlenty can attest.

The closest Rubio came to a Shermanesque denial was "I'm not going to be the Vice Presidential nominee. The answer is going to be no." which isn't really that Shermanesque a denial.  No more definitive a denial than Clinton's insistence that he wasn't going to run for president in 1992 or Obama's insistence that he wasn't going to run for president in 2008.

It's too early to believe any denials of interest on the vice presidency.  People deny their interest in being veep all the time, and it doesn't mean anything.  We won't know for sure if someone is uninterested until they refuse to be vetted.

It doesn't matter if they're actually not similar, because if Romney picks any woman he's going to have to spend a whole week of media time defending her and explaining why she's not the next Sarah Palin regardless of how similar she is. It may not be "fair", but it's the way it is.

is he the most likely vp choice for mitt

yes   11 (47.8%)
no     11 (47.8%)
santorum is going to win.  duh!   1 (4.3%)  (Keystone Phil Option) :)
 

Been saying that since 2010!

Btw, Nate Silver has a new post on why governors rarely ever get picked for veep:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/27/for-a-romney-running-mate-dont-bet-on-a-governor/

How would it not help his case that he doesn't support requiring vaginal ultrasounds?

If he chooses Rubio, there's a significant chance it could blow up in his face. This is a guy who hasn't been vetted, has been somewhat flexible with the truth about personal aspects of his life (i.e. telling people his family fled Castro when they actually emigrated some time before he came to power), and has financial problems (underwater on his mortgage, tons of student loan debt) that could indicate some more skeletons in his closet.

Which Martinez? Mel or Susana? With regards to the first, this is not a good year to pick a lobbyist for a running mate. With regards to the second, she may end up being seen as a Latina Palin.

McDonnell could be Romney's death blow in New Hampshire. And in a 50-50 election that could give obama a 272-266 win.

What about Brian Sandoval?

No.  You're probably tired of me saying it by now, but Romney will not be picking a Governor or a former Governor as his running mate.

This.

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