Title: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: freepcrusher on April 01, 2012, 02:02:44 AM I've just been astonished how you could lose that many seats. No other state has ever come close to losing that many in a single decade. You almost have to try hard to lose that many seats. The governors of that era (Rocky and Carey) were fairly popular.
I can see how areas like Buffalo would lose population since it's frigid and boring but most of the heavy underpopulated seats were in the NYC Metro. In New York City it isn't as cold as other parts of the northeast and there is stuff to do. The only severely underpopulated upstate district was the 37th (Nowak) which had 360,405 people per the 1980 census. All the other underpopulated districts were in metro NY: NY 12 (Chisholm) 320,886 NY 14 (Richmond) 364,356 NY 21 (Garcia) 233,787 NY 19 (Rangel) 371,614 Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 01, 2012, 02:32:02 AM ()
Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: minionofmidas on April 01, 2012, 05:06:14 AM The 21st was the South Bronx district. What was its population in 1970?
Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 01, 2012, 06:41:10 AM The population dropped from 18,236,967 in 1970 to 17,558,072 which means a 3.72% loss. However, as the US population had grown by 11.59% in the meantime, the relative loss was impressive : 13.72%. NY had 39 EVs, and 13.72% of 39 is around 5.
Note it's easy for big States to lose a lot of seats, because even a small % loss results in a high raw loss. Compare with South Dakota, which, despite losing 7.2% of its population in 1940, didn't lose a single seat. Conversely, big States gain far more seats when their population growth is higher than the national gorwth. Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: freepcrusher on April 01, 2012, 04:49:50 PM The 21st was the South Bronx district. What was its population in 1970? The 1970 population was 462,073 so the population was basically cut in half during the 1970s. Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: I'm JewCon in name only. on April 01, 2012, 05:04:21 PM Crime rates in NYC. Mafia crime in NYC.
Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: © tweed on April 01, 2012, 05:05:39 PM Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: NY Jew on April 01, 2012, 06:42:48 PM urban flight
an example of urban areas that lost people population 1970 1980 loss Brooklyn 2,602,012 2,231,028 370,984 Bronx 1,471,701 1,168,972 302,729 Manhattan 1,539,233 1,428,285 110,948 Queens 1,986,473 1,891,325 95,148 Nassau Co 1,428,080 1,321,582 106,498 Yonkers 204,297 195,351 8,946 Mount Vernon 72,778 66,713 6,065 New Rochelle 75,385 70,794 4,591 White Plains 50,346 46,999 3,347 Poughkeepsie 32,029 29,757 2,272 Middletown 22,607 21,454 1,153 Kingston 25,544 24,481 1,063 Peekskill 19,283 18,236 1,047 Rye 15,869 15,083 786 Beacon 13,255 12,937 318 Buffalo 462,768 357,870 104,898 Niagara Falls 85,615 71,384 14,231 Lackawanna 28,657 22,701 5,956 Jamestown 39,795 35,775 4,020 Tonawanda 21,898 18,693 3,205 Dunkirk 16,855 15,310 1,545 Lockport 25,399 24,844 555 N Tonawanda 36,012 35,760 252 Rochester 296,233 241,741 54,492 Corning 15,792 12,953 2,839 Hornell 12,144 10,234 1,910 Albany 115,781 101,727 14,054 Schenectady 77,958 67,972 9,986 Troy 62,918 56,638 6,280 Rensselaer 10,136 9,047 1,089 Watervliet 12,404 11,354 1,050 Syracuse 197,297 170,105 27,192 Utica 91,611 75,632 15,979 Binghamton 64,123 55,860 8,263 Rome 50,148 43,826 6,322 Elmira 39,945 35,327 4,618 Watertown 30,787 27,861 2,926 Newburgh 26,219 23,438 2,781 Ogdensburg 14,554 12,375 2,179 Auburn 34,599 32,548 2,051 Oswego 20,913 19,793 1,120 Oneonta 16,030 14,933 1,097 Oneida 11,658 10,810 848 Batavia 17,338 16,703 635 total loss of selected citys 1,318,268 Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: freepcrusher on April 01, 2012, 07:35:21 PM what's interesting is that even Nassau County lost population. Wasn't this an area of the postwar boom in home construction a la Levittown?
Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: nclib on April 01, 2012, 08:08:10 PM NYC pretty much hit its low in the 70's. My parents left then, and they say it's gotten better since then.
Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: timothyinMD on April 01, 2012, 08:23:17 PM I've just been astonished how you could lose that many seats. No other state has ever come close to losing that many in a single decade. You almost have to try hard to lose that many seats. The governors of that era (Rocky and Carey) were fairly popular. I can see how areas like Buffalo would lose population since it's frigid and boring but most of the heavy underpopulated seats were in the NYC Metro. In New York City it isn't as cold as other parts of the northeast and there is stuff to do. The only severely underpopulated upstate district was the 37th (Nowak) which had 360,405 people per the 1980 census. All the other underpopulated districts were in metro NY: NY 12 (Chisholm) 320,886 NY 14 (Richmond) 364,356 NY 21 (Garcia) 233,787 NY 19 (Rangel) 371,614 Well genius, all you had to do was look at the census and see that NY's population plunged in the 1970s. Not shocking at all Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: Brittain33 on April 01, 2012, 08:44:47 PM what's interesting is that even Nassau County lost population. Wasn't this an area of the postwar boom in home construction a la Levittown? Nassau County's land filled up before 1980, and by that year, many of the baby boomers of the large families of the 1950s had grown up and left their parents behind. Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: BigSkyBob on April 01, 2012, 10:32:02 PM Rent control? Baby boom kids left the nest?
Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: I'm JewCon in name only. on April 01, 2012, 10:46:25 PM I've just been astonished how you could lose that many seats. No other state has ever come close to losing that many in a single decade. You almost have to try hard to lose that many seats. The governors of that era (Rocky and Carey) were fairly popular. I can see how areas like Buffalo would lose population since it's frigid and boring but most of the heavy underpopulated seats were in the NYC Metro. In New York City it isn't as cold as other parts of the northeast and there is stuff to do. The only severely underpopulated upstate district was the 37th (Nowak) which had 360,405 people per the 1980 census. All the other underpopulated districts were in metro NY: NY 12 (Chisholm) 320,886 NY 14 (Richmond) 364,356 NY 21 (Garcia) 233,787 NY 19 (Rangel) 371,614 Well genius, all you had to do was look at the census and see that NY's population plunged in the 1970s. Not shocking at all Well genius, all you had to do is realize that he knows that. He wanted to know why. No need to be a a-hole about.. Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: jimrtex on April 01, 2012, 11:46:16 PM what's interesting is that even Nassau County lost population. Wasn't this an area of the postwar boom in home construction a la Levittown? In 1970, Nassau males 45-54 outnumbered males 25-34 by 74%. It was somewhat less pronounced among females 45-54 (48%). Males 55-59 outnumbered females 55-59, by 3%; while in the 25-34 range, females outnumbered males by 21%. So there is probably a combination of effects of different ages between grooms and brides; divorce; second marriages. By 1980 the lack of persons of child-bearing age plus the baby bust are profound. In Nassau, the ratio of graduating seniors to first graders is around 2 to 1. Children 5-9 declined by over 40% between 1970 and 1980. The fastest growing population was actually 25-34, as the children of the post-war boom come of age; plus you may have a new generation moving out from Queens and Brooklyn as the first owners of the homes are reaching retirement and downsizing or moving to Florida. But these new homeowners aren't having children at anywhere near the rate of the earlier generation. There are big drops in the 35-54 age brackets (20%) as the first generation ages, while those 55-64 increase by around 20%. 0-4 29%,30% decline 5-9 41%,43% decline 10-14 32%,33% decline 15-24 5% increase, 3% decline. 25-34 44%, 27% increase. 35-44 20%, 21% decrease. 45-54 22%, 13% decrease. 55-64 30%, 33% increase 65-74 32%, 16% increase By 1990, you finish up the big drop in children and you're seeing the child-bearing adult group filling up, but not having as many children. Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: jimrtex on April 02, 2012, 12:17:00 AM Rent control? Baby boom kids left the nest? You take farm land and build a bunch of houses, and you are going to get a bunch of people in their 20's and early 30's. If they have children, it is a toddler. While an apartment is OK for a baby or toddler, not so much for older children, and you are concerned about the schools. 10 years later, and you have parents in their 30s, and a bunch of grade-school age children. Few of the houses are sold. There are some divorces, and perhaps the largest families with 6 or more children buy a bigger house, but there isn't much opportunity for newly formed families. 20 years later, and you have parents in their 40s, and early 50s and they've finished up having children and the oldest children are going off to college. There isn't a market for apartments. 30 years later and the grade schools are depopulating. Some of the houses are becoming available, as the original owners are retiring and moving to Florida, or moving to condos or townhouses, which may be built as developers start finding smaller areas to build on. Between 1970 and 1980, Nassau saw massive drops in young children; some drop in late teenagers as the youngest children of the earliest settlers reached high school. There was actually a pretty big increase in persons in their 20s, as all the original owners had aged way past that (in 1970 the largest age cohort was 45-54). So in the 70s, at least some of the children of the settlers were sticking around - but not having as many children, and also having them later. But there were big drops in the 35-54 population, as the settlers aged, and increases in the older population. Most of the population drop was due to children not being replaced, while the distribution of the adult population was changing. Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: Napoleon on April 02, 2012, 03:09:39 AM Well genius, all you had to do was look at the census and see that NY's population plunged in the 1970s. Not shocking at all Well genius, all you had to do is realize that he knows that. He wanted to know why. No need to be a a-hole about.. Well genius, you aren't allowed to call another poster a genius. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=149396.msg3205582#msg3205582) Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: BigSkyBob on April 02, 2012, 12:04:56 PM Rent control? Baby boom kids left the nest? You take farm land and build a bunch of houses, and you are going to get a bunch of people in their 20's and early 30's. If they have children, it is a toddler. While an apartment is OK for a baby or toddler, not so much for older children, and you are concerned about the schools. 10 years later, and you have parents in their 30s, and a bunch of grade-school age children. Few of the houses are sold. There are some divorces, and perhaps the largest families with 6 or more children buy a bigger house, but there isn't much opportunity for newly formed families. 20 years later, and you have parents in their 40s, and early 50s and they've finished up having children and the oldest children are going off to college. There isn't a market for apartments. 30 years later and the grade schools are depopulating. Some of the houses are becoming available, as the original owners are retiring and moving to Florida, or moving to condos or townhouses, which may be built as developers start finding smaller areas to build on. Between 1970 and 1980, Nassau saw massive drops in young children; some drop in late teenagers as the youngest children of the earliest settlers reached high school. There was actually a pretty big increase in persons in their 20s, as all the original owners had aged way past that (in 1970 the largest age cohort was 45-54). So in the 70s, at least some of the children of the settlers were sticking around - but not having as many children, and also having them later. But there were big drops in the 35-54 population, as the settlers aged, and increases in the older population. Most of the population drop was due to children not being replaced, while the distribution of the adult population was changing. Total population is the number of housing units multiplied by the average number of person per household [plus homeless people.] Nassau suffered the combined effects of the ending of the build out, and the drop of birthrates. But, New York state as a whole suffered a decline in population more than the nation's. Presumably, the New Yorkers in their 20's could have lived in another county, or new housing could have been constructed farther out from Manhattan. One explanation is the build out started to shift to New Jersey, Connecticut and, even Pennsylvania. Another explanation is that the number of housing units fell into disrepair at a greater rate than they were rehabilitated. A third explanation is that the fertility of recent immigrants fell more than the native population shrinking the average household size in immigrant "gateways" like NYC more than the national average. A fourth explanation is that the number of jobs declined in New York state. The young population moved to states with jobs [Texas for instance], and, started their families there. As a state with above average immigration from other countries, New York state ought to have grown faster than other states, all things else equal. Obviously, they weren't. Title: Re: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980? Post by: jimrtex on April 02, 2012, 05:15:59 PM Most of the population drop was due to children not being replaced, while the distribution of the adult population was changing. The population between 20-34 was increasing (44% among 25-34 males; 27% among 25-34 females). This would be children from the early settlers sticking around, or a new group moving out from Queens and Brooklyn. But housing would be limited. It takes a while for apartments and condos to be built in an area where everyone's dream was to escape the tenements. But the base population in 1970 in these age groups was low, since the original settlers were now in middle age. So while between 1970 and 1980 the male 25-34 population increased by 44%; the male 35-44 population decreased by 20%. The drop in the Nassau County population (10%) was due to the lack of new housing, and the rapid development 30 years earlier, with a side effect of the end of the baby boom. |