Talk Elections

Per PPP's Twitter:

https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2420120401108

Now I know Rick won't be carrying any CD's in MD. I knew it before, but now I really know it.

You just gave me a really fun idea for a gerrymandering game... we could have a challenge to create otherwise legal districts (excluding laws against crazy gerrymandering - because they're just funsuckers) to maximize votes for presidential candidates!

PPP-MD+WI GOP Primary:

MD:
ROMNEY: 52%
Santorum: 27%
Gingrich: 10%
Paul: 09%

WI:
ROMNEY: 43%
SANTORUM: 36%
PAUL: 11%
GINGRICH: 08%

Romney's starting to have some success with groups that have generally been key components of Santorum's base over the last two months. For instance he leads with Tea Party voters in both states, 43-34 in Maryland and 46-38 in Wisconsin. He's also becoming more competitive with Evangelical voters, leading 43-36 with them in Maryland and trailing only47-35 with them in Wisconsin. In the states where Santorum's been victorious he's generally won Evangelicals by a much wider margin than that.

The only thing keeping Santorum competitive in Wisconsin is the state's open primary. He actually trails Romney 50-36 with Republican voters but 40% of those saying they're likely to vote are either independents or Democrats and with those folks Santorum leads 37-32, making it more competitive overall. If those non-Republicans don't actually end up turning out Romney can expect to win by a wider margin.

Among voters who decided 'in the last few days,' 9% of the Wisconsin electorate, Santorum leads Romney 52-27. That makes you wonder whether Paul Ryan's late endorsement of Romney was much of a game changer.
Newt Gingrich might not be ready to leave the GOP race for President, but the party base is ready for him to. In Wisconsin 63% of voters think he should drop out, while 27% think he should continue on. In Maryland it's 57% who believe he should drop out to 33% who believe he should stay in.

Other notes from these states:

-In the Wisconsin Senate primary Tommy Thompson leads with 38% to 25% for Mark Neumann and 18% for Jeff Fitzgerald. Those numbers are relatively unchanged from a month ago when Thompson led with 39% and Neumann and Fitzgerald both coming in at 22%. It's the same old story- more Wisconsin Republicans would like someone else to be the nominee than Thompson but as long as there are two strong alternatives he's likely to sneak by in the primary with less than 50% of the vote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/04/romney-headed-for-double-win-tuesday.html

Romney is doing better among self-identified Tea Party members than the general electorate in Wisconsin?  Subsamples are a beautiful thing.

I think that Wisconsin is probably closing up a bit. It won't be enough for Santorum though.

I'd also bet on Gingrich coming in fourth in both states.

Well Romneys base is in the Milwaukee suburbs so its possible.

Possible, but PPP's Wisconsin weekend poll gives Romney +14% among Republicans and Santorum +%5 among dems/indes and assumes they will make up 40% of the vote in the state. If democrats don't show up to vote in the GOP primary in the numbers PPP predicts as I don't think they will then Romney wins the state by double digits.

At this stage in the game I just don't see dems having anywhere near the same kind of desire they did back in Feb. to come out and vote for Santorum to mess with the GOP primary results even if they would like that to happen its one thing to say it to someone who calls its another to actually go to the polls to help make it happen.  

What would be entailed in doing a WTA by COD analysis of previous US elections? Where would I go to find that information?