Talk Elections

Romney/Portman v. Obama/Biden, where do the chips fall?

Discuss with maps.

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Tender and I made the same map at the same time. (Except NE-2)

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Obama 286-252

Rob Portman isn't that well known in Ohio, so being on the ticket might work both ways. He has worked for George W. Bush, so that won't be a plus.

And if McDonnell doesn't help Romney in Virginia, according to one poll, why would Portman help Romney in Ohio when his approval ratings are much lower?

Quinnipiac even says that Portman on the ticket would increase Obama's margin against Romney in OH:

Obama would win at the moment, but now is not November. I consider the election a tossup, with a fairly wide range of outcomes.

Mittens' most likely path to victory:

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Second most likely:

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Never has NH had more importance.

Torie, why for heavens sake do you think Romney wins WI before CO or PA ?

Portman would not be a good choice, IMO, for Romney.  I'm fairly certain that Romney can win this general election, but Portman would not do him any favors.  I don't think he would be as bad a pick as Sarah Palin was for John McCain, but there was no way McCain was going to win in 2008 regardless of who he picked.  The tide was so much in favor of Barack Obama that McCain was little more than a sacrificial lamb.

CO has those Hispanics whom I think will give Mittens the cold shoulder, and I think Wisconsin has  more swingable voters than PA, Obama won't do that well in the German belt, and the WI Pubs by November will be seen as having their emasculation of the public employee unions vindicated. Just a guess. As I said, the Mittens more likely path to victory is through Richmond.

Here is my guess for what would ultimately happen.  Explanation below.

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Colorado continues trending Democratic.

Florida is very close, but Obama successfully ties Romney to the Ryan Plan, keeping enough Republican-voting seniors at home to hold onto the state.

Georgia is closer than people might have expected; the Atlanta suburbs are trending away from the Republican party, though they manage to win by a decent margin.

Indiana swings back to the Republican column, but only narrowly.

Nevada is a lot closer due to dismal state of the housing market and a more motivated Republican base due to the Mormon presence.  However, Obama's tight hold on the Hispanic vote delivers this state easily.

New Hampshire is somewhat closer than in 2008, but the Romney "home-state" effect is negligible.

North Carolina swings back to the Republican column, though Obama doesn't let it slip away easily; it's a close one.

Ohio stays in the Obama camp, Portman doing nothing for Romney.

Portman's approval ratings are lower than Obama's in OH, and the fact that he had worked for George W. Bush would turn into a significant liability. Portman would help Romney by a point or two in Ohio, but probably not by enough to win the state, leading to a result something like this:

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Obama 332
Romney 206

The margin is a bit closer than in 2008, but not by much and not because of Portman.

This is true, Republican Hispanics around Pueblo dislike Romney extremely. And those are the republicans...

Right now I think the one change I could guarantee is Indiana. Other than that I think that NC would be the only flip, though I think that SC/AZ would have a chance at flipping.

SC before Georgia?

SC won't flip.  Not unless the Dems for reasons unforseen have to replace Obama. Or Obama makes use of the Orbital Mind Control Lasers.

You might want to take a look at the 2000 results....

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Very true.

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