Talk Elections

http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/population/cb12-55.html

This got mentioned in the Columbus Dispatch this week so I thought I'd post it here for all to enjoy.  Let the 2020 speculation begin!

First thoughts: Will the North Dakota energy boom send the state over 750,000 this decade?

It is interesting that Dallas County, Iowa is one of the fastest growing counties (5%).  It is the county west of Polk (Des Moines) and must have just the right position to not have much of a population base but right in the suburban growth path.

Between 1890 and 1990 (a century) the county increased from about 20,000 to 30,000, including 0.8% in the 1980s.   It increased to about 41,000 in 2000 (+37%), and 66,000 in 2010 (+62%).

I saw some headlines, but that didn't really follow-up that claimed that exurban areas were declining or maybe the growth was slowing.  I wonder what examples they used.

Hmm. Interesting Tri-Cities (Kennewick-Richland-Pasco) numbers. The state's estimates (usually more accurate) say they grew about 2%, though that was only through April 2011 (not July 2011). I doubt a few months would make such a large difference.

The places they used for examples of slowing exurban growth would be like Kendall county IL which was the fastest growing county, and now has dropped way down the list.

I'm also a bit surprised WA is supposedly the sixth fastest growing state.

Eww... Not sure what to think about the growth in tri-cities. I guess growth or not, it will remain a [inks]hole.

Rhode Island, Michigan and Maine lost population.

The fastest-growing of all counties without regard to population was one of the smallest, Loving County, Texas, whose population grew from 82 to 94.  It's now larger than Kalawao County, Hawaii, population 90 lepers and associates.

The biggest loser was Blaine County, Oklahoma, west northwest of Oklahoma City.  It lost 18.6% of its population to fall below 10,000.  I'm not sure why.  Most of whatever happened happened in between the 2010 census and the 2010 census estimate.

Of counties with a 2011 population over 10,000, the biggest loser was Coosa County, Alabama, north of Montgomery (-7.1%), followed by Wilkes County, Georgia (-3.6%) in between Athens and Augusta, and Bullock County, Alabama (-3.4%), southeast of Montgomery.

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Watonga faces adjustments with prison's closure (http://newsok.com/watonga-faces-adjustments-with-prisons-closure/article/3466629)

The county boundary comes down 142 , so you've just got development lapping over the county line.   But the the boundary jogs a mile or so east on University (the Des Moines Country Club is in Dallas County.   I-35 loops around the north-east of Des Moines and is less than a mile east of the the county line.

It looks like about a 2-mile wide settlement strip along the eastern edge of the county, with some growth around Waukee.   So it really is an almost perfect case of a city lapping over a jurisdiction line.

Des Moines itself is toward the southwestern part of Polk County, with the preferred growth direction ending up being west from the Des Moines River rather than to the east.

I wish they gave some data on domestic net migration. I wonder if there is that large of a net migration out of California or not. I suspect there is out of Southern California, but wouldn't be surprised if the Bay Area, especially the Silicon Valley, held it's ground.

I put up Waukee, because it is the fastest growing town in Iowa.  I have been waiting all my life for Des Moines Metro growth to impinge on Madison County (where the family farm is located). I'm still waiting. :)

Part of the push to the west (other than chicer neighborhoods tend to be built to the north and west in general due to the direction of the prevailing winds), is that the intersection of I-80 and I-35 is there, so there is a hub of businesses and hotels and such around it. I stay there when I go to Winterset, since Winterset's accommodations suck.

Believe it or not, the fastest growing county in CA for the subject year per the link was Riverside County.  Which is odd, since Gallup in its poll ranked Riverside as the second worst place in the US to find a job based on respondents comments (Providence was first).  I guess folks like living in hell or something. Or folks are living full time in all those vacation homes in the desert.

Cheap housing and, until recently, cheaper gas meant Riverside County became a more attractive place to live. And outside of a few neighborhoods in Riverside, it doesn't have a hellhole on the scale of San Bernardino. Plus retiree growth in the desert continues too I suspect and house prices must have collapsed there as well, making retiring there more attractive to some. Finding jobs within Riverside County must be hard though. You got to go to OC.

There is in fact data on domestic net migration. :)
http://www.census.gov/popest/data/counties/totals/2011/CO-EST2011-05.html

Excellent! Thank you!

Looks like Los Angeles County had more net domestic migration out of it than all of California, meaning the rest of California had net migration in. Riverside County gained a lot from domestic net migration and modest increases in Orange and Contra Costa County. Santa Clara lost people, which surprised me, but San Francisco and San Mateo gained people. And while Riverside was gaining 14,000 people from net domestic migration, San Bernardino only gained like half a thousand. Very interesting.

the interesting thing is that this net outmigration in LA County is nothing new. I remember reading somewhere that if not for external factors, Los Angeles County would have lost a million people in the 1970s.

Dane County continues to be the fastest growing county in Wisconsin! =) It's also nice to see Milwaukee not losing people like areas it's been compared to like Buffalo, Cleveland and Detroit.

No wonder you don't like Michele Bachman.

Warren:Madison :: Dakota:Scott with respect to I-35, though Madison has now exceeded its 1910 population, and I doubt Scott has any tunnels.

Maybe Moreno Valley is easier to get to than Victorville, and you can also get to Orange and San Diego counties directly from Riverside.

And maybe Palm Springs, etc. is less vulnerable to unemployment since retired people don't need jobs.

No wonder Ohio's unemployment rate is so much better than the national average.  Everyone is leaving!  The domestic migration out of the state is greater than the natural increase in population.

Actually the I-15 corridor from south Corona to Murrieta/Temecula is probably more relevant. Also there are some newer communities on the I-15 north of the 91 north of Norco near the SBD county line. It's odd how that area has still remained more or less rural, but not for long. The commute all the way from Moreno Valley to OC would be quite hellish, but yeah, better than Victorville. Also I am sure the Palm Springs area continue to gain people, with employment not a concern for the retirees, lower house prices I am sure are attracting them in good numbers.

Madison's growth has all been in Winterset, which is a charming town (thus it has its retiree bourgeoise, some of whom left to return), and is propped up a bit by being sort of an exurb of the Des Moines metro.