Talk Elections

The departure of Rick Santorum from the race for Republican nominee simplifies things greatly for seeing who leads and who is behind. So here is what we have:

Reddish shades are for a lead by President Obama; bluish shades are for a lead by the relevant Republican campaigner.Mitt Romney.

NEW MEXICO:

   

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_mexico/election_2012_new_mexico_president

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Obama vs. Romney

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Reddish shades are for a lead by President Obama; bluish shades are for a lead by Mitt Romney.

North Carolina Survey Results


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_041112.pdf

If this is how things look in late October in a state which is about R+5, then you can assume re-election of the President with about a 55-45 split of the popular vote and about 400 electoral votes.

Santorum wasn't doing too badly compared to Romney (1% worse) but I'm not going to show him anymore.  

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Obama vs. Romney

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So that would tend towards this prediction:

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Give NH to Obama and NC, FL and OH to Romney and I think that is a very realistic prognosis at this point.

I don't think it's reasonable to expect that Romney will win Ohio, and I'd give him a better chance in New Hampshire. If I had a gun held to my head right now my prognosis would be 299-239 or 303-235 Obama, depending upon New Hampshire.

Yeah, but they're both super close, unlike apparently, VA, CO, etc.

Point taken, though some of the closer ones out of Ohio are from pollsters that I find questionable (I think I remember one of the ones showing Obama ahead in New Hampshire striking me as questionable too, to be absolutely fair). Ones out of Virginia have actually been all over the place, though it's very clear that Obama's ahead there. Colorado's out of reach for Romney at this point.

Your map is a little flawed:

Romney leads by healthy margins in AZ and MO (Rasmussen) and has a 2-point lead in IA in an older Selzer poll. Romney also leads in SC (Ipsos I guess).

Quinnipiac, New Jersey:


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1736

 released today.
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Obama vs. Romney

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I now refer you here:

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Apr28.html

This site gives the most up-to-date assessment of the Presidential race based upon the most recent polls. Good polls flood out the bad ones.