Talk Elections

I think the previous "dead woman walking" thread is a bit presumptive and also a bit disrespectful, so thought I might create this thread for posting poll updates. If the boardbashi disapproves, it could always be moved over to the IGD board.

Latest Newspoll was out today.

The poll was conducted from January to March - State sample sizes were 700 to 1,692. Tasmania was excluded from separate figures because the sample size was too small but included in the national total. The national sample size was 5,741. Margin of error was 1.3% nationally and 3.7% for the state with the smallest sample.

Primary vote at the election:
Party/National/NSW/Vic/Qld/SA/WA/Male/Female/18-34/35-49/50+/Capitals/Non-Capitals
Labor/38.0/37.7/42.8/33.6/40.7/31.2/34/38/34/35/38/40.1/34.8
Coalition/43.6/44.1/39.6/47.4/40.2/50.6/45/42/35/45/48/42.1/45.9
Greens/11.8/10.7/12.7/10.9/12.0/13.1/14/14/22/14/9/12.8/10.3
Others/6.6/7.5/4.9/8.1/7.1/5.1/7/6/9/6/5/5.0/9.0

Primary vote in the latest poll:
Labor/32/31/34/30/34/31/30/34/33/31/32/32/32
Coalition/45/45/44/47/39/48/46/43/37/45/50/44/46
Greens/11/11/13/9/11/10/11/12/17/13/6/13/9
Others/12/13/9/14/16/11/13/11/13/11/12/11/13

Labor 2PP (table doesn't include gender or age breakdown):
Election/50.1/49.5/55.3/44.9/53.2/43.6/52.5/46.6
Poll/46/46/50/42/51/44/47/45

Results of polls taken between the election and the latest poll were also included but I didn't upload them here.

Is Team Blue above or below 55 in 2PP?

Team blue 2PP would be 54% nationally.

Hmm... Coalition leads even among youth voters. Interesting. Wonder what a seat projection would look like. Slightly better than '96 methinks.

Oh, and Abbott should totally use this line in the debate when those taxes come up: "I want to see you squirm out of this load of rubbish over a number of months. There will be no easy execution for you. You have perpetrated one of the great mischiefs on the Australian public with this thing."

:)

Newspoll out today. Bracketed number reflects change from the election.

Primary Vote
Labor 27 (-11)
Coalition 51 (+7.4)
Greens 11 (-0.8)
Others 11 (+4.4)

Two Party Preferred
Labor 41 (-9.9)
Coalition 59

Antony Green's swingometer (I'm using the 2010 model) only goes to 57%, a 10-point swing. 57 means 109 Coalitionists, 38 Labor, 3 Other. I'm guessing something like 120 Coalition seats, though I could be wrong.

Smid: When was the last time they polled this badly?

News this morning was using the headline "worst result for Labor in eleven months" and the political commentator reiterated that and mentioned that eleven months ago, Labor's primary vote was one point below this at 26, and was Labor's worst-ever poll result.

Latest Newspoll (11-13 May) released today. 1141 respondents, weighted to reflect population dispersion.

First bracketed number is the election result. Second bracketed number is change since last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor (E=38%) 30 (+3)
Coalition (E=43.6%) 45 (-6)
Greens (E=11.8%) 12 (+1)
Others (E=6.6%) 13 (+2)

Two Party Preferred
Labor (E=50.1%) 45 (+4)
Coalition (E=49.9%) 55 (-4)

Virtually no change in leadership ratings. Big table of numbers relating to the budget.

What happened? I know that was a bit of a high, but still. Or did Swan leak some sort of pre-budget goodie?

Could be a budget bounce, or could be a bit of statistical noise. The Nielson poll yesterday declared "no budget bounce" - but I think their last poll was higher for Labor than Newspoll's last poll.

The time series figures published in the paper are (so election, and then every two weeks, starting from late February this year):
(dates are: Election - [2012 Feb 23-26, Mar 9-11, Mar 23-25, Apr 13-15, Apr 27-29, May 11-13])

Labor: 38,          35, 31, 28, 29, 27, 30.
Coalition: 43.6,          45, 43, 47, 48, 51, 45
Greens: 11.8,          11, 12, 11, 12, 11, 12
Others: 6.6,          9, 14, 14, 11, 11, 13

So as far as this year's Newspoll goes, the numbers are pretty close to the low-end of middle for Labor, low-end of middle for Coalition, normal for the Greens, and high end for others (presumably driven by Katter's Party).

The Age-Neilson poll published on Saturday was:

Labor: 28
Coalition: 49
Greens: 12
Independent: 5
Family First: 3
Other: 4

Still lethal though.

Wow.  With those numbers, Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Peter Garrett,  Chris Bowen, Craig Emmerson, and maybe even Tony Burke would loose their seats.  5 or 6 Portillo moments.  Geez.  For anyone who is on the ALP left though, a blessing in disguise, perhaps. 

That would be on a uniform swing. I think Emmrrson would hang on, I know his seat pretty well. Even in the Queensland election, Woodridge stayed Labor (I think the safest Labor seat? Or is that Inala?). Regardless, voters in the parts of his seat West of the highway would really struggle to vote Liberal, especially without the Can-do Campbell factor.

Swan has lost his seat before, but the redistribution took some more Liberal parts out, I think. Still, I believe no state seats in his electorate went Labor at the Queensland election a couple of months ago, so he could have some difficulties. Of course, the Queensland Premier (now, LNP Leader then) had massive cult-like personal popularity, which no other leader currently attracts, so that could weigh in his favour.

Garrett, hmmm, I think most state seats in his electorate stayed Labor last state election, Coogee, which went marginally Liberal, is shared with Wentworth. I think Polnut knows that whole area better than me, but I suspect Garrett may hang on.

The other seats, I don't know them well enough. If any seat in WA resists the swing, it will be Perth and/or Fremantle. Perhaps Smith could hang on, perhaps his seat will swing. I wouldn't want to predict that one either way.

Well, I don't think 59-41 will be the result on election day.  I actually have a feeling it will be like France this year (with left and right reversed), where it looks like a huge victory is coming for the opposition, and then they only end up winning by a narrow margin, though ironically, I hope all of those guys loose their seats, in spite of being a socialist/social democrat myself, to cleanse the ALP of their influences (and the threats of them potentially being ALP leaders in the next parliament). 

Wouldn't it be weird for Tony Abbot to win one of the largest majorities in Australian parliamentary history?

Ironic that all the ALP dries will get wiped out when they're the ones who their party will need to rebuild.

Yep, but not unthinkable.  If these numbers hold, then it would look a lot like Spain 2011.

Spain 2011? Abbott would have 11x seats with Labor in the mid-30s at those numbers. Bigger than Fraser 1975.

Does ALP dries mean the right faction?  If so, then it would seem that they'll need someone from the left (who hopefully will clean up the party's legacy on the carbon tax) to be able to keep its youth base from switching to the Greens.  Doesn't necessarily have to be someone from the Left faction (preferably yes), but someone who is actually left-of center.. I mean, they can't be a bleeding leftist socialist tree-hugger, since they'll obviously have to win back a lot of Coalition supporters too.  But it seems like projecting integrity (which Gillard doesn't have) and honesty, as well as admitting that the Gillard government screwed up with the carbon tax (and the right-wing, austerity decision on single-mother's allowance).  It also seems like Abbot, assuming he becomes PM, will do himself in.

*fingers crossed for Tanya Plibersek*

I hope the ALP continues thinking that way for many defeats to come.

In several elections in the past two years such as the UK in 2010 and Sarkozy recently we have seen that anytime polls show incumbents set to be totally crushed - they almost always end up losing by a much less crushing margin than the polls suggest. I think that in the end a certain number of people always "come home" to their natural political home and so elections almost always end up being closer than expected.

Obviously. I'd expect, say, 53/47 2PP when all is said and done.

Posts like that are why I don't really like having poll threads here. Generally discussion of Aussie stuff is (in a great blow to stereotypes) cool enough for there to be no issue, but, basically, masturbate (or scream at the horror if applicable, etc) elsewhere...

Yeah, but I mean just in general, a massive landslide victory by an opposition leader who would, in most cases, be unelectable. 

Latest Newspoll is out. Labor has risen for a second polling period, off their lows of a month or so ago (pre-budget). This has been mainly due to a slide in "Others" - primary vote, the Coalition is up 2, Labor up 1, Greens steady and Others down 3. I suspected that the last poll had overstated Labor's support by a percent or so and that this poll would see it ease off very slightly, and that the media would therefore over-emphasise any slide but clearly I was wrong because Labor's up again.

I'm not sure what is contributing to the slide in others... I think their rise was driven predominantly by the rise of Katter's party in Queensland (I'm sure that a correlation could be proven or disproven fairly easily by looking at the date in the surge to others and the date Katter announced he was forming a party, but I'm not going to spend that much time looking for it... I think it's probably true and I'll leave it at that). Anyway, if that's the case, perhaps the Katter party failing to win seats in the Queensland election outside his own federal electorate may be acting as something of a dampener on their support. Just speculation on my part, really.

Anyway, here are the polling numbers:

Primary Vote
Labor 32 (+2%)
Coalition 46 (+1%)
Greens 12 (nc)
Others 10 (-3%)

Two Party Preferred
Labor 46 - 54 Coalition

1152 respondents, +/- 3% MOE, weighted according to population distribution.

54-46 is heckuva more realistic 2PP number than 59-41. I'd say 1996 rather than 1983 will be the template come E-Day.

Absolutely more realistic, although there have been some unrealistic election results of late - Queensland and NSW both had 2PP results of >10% for the governing party - I think Queensland was 63%, and NSW was higher. Prior to that, I thought the 2002 Victorian result was an anomoly, where Labor received 57%. Of course, the larger the electoral population, the harder it is to get a margin like that... federal Labor is nowhere near as unpopular in Victoria and South Australia (and presumably Tasmania, but the sample size is too small for Newspoll to release their figures there and likewise for the ACT). Labor's support in those states and the ACT will make it harder for the nation-wide 2PP to blow out to the levels experienced in Queensland and NSW.

I missed last fortnight's poll, but Newspoll is out again today. first bracketed number is the election result, second bracketed number is change since last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor (38%) 30% (-1)
Coalition (43.6%) 46 (+2)
Greens (11.8%) 12 (-2)
Others (6.6%) 12 (+1)

Two Party Preferred
Labor 45 vs 55 Coalition (Labor down 1 since last poll, election was Labor 50.1 vs 49.9 Coalition).

1146 respondents, MOE +/-3%.

Hmm... I still say something like 53-47 is the final result but I could be wrong.

I think it'll be similar to the 2007 (only reversed). The obvious rule being oppositions always do well mid-term. Julia remains preferred PM as well, even if she is hated.

Same here.

What surprises me was that Abbott wasn't sacked after the 2010 election. Still, Mr. Abbott seems to be on his way to be the next PM. He might win in 2013 by the fact he is not Gillard (or at least Labor).

The right in America has regained much of its power because they weren't Obama or the Democrats. I suspect that is what's happening here.

Why would he be sacked? He took them from a double-digit deficit to a tie. Whitlam and Howard didn't win their first rodeos either.

Yeah, it's easy to forget that Abbott did a huge amount better than anyone expected him to.

Perhaps your right. I was probably thinking of the several leaders the British Tories had during the Blair-Brown era.

Newspoll and Nielson are both out today - Newspoll also has released their quarterly "polls by state and demographic breakdown" (see the first poll in this thread for last quarter's). Both are good polling firms, so I normally take a look at both to check they're roughly the same and then really just follow Newspoll. For the past couple of months at least, Newspoll seems to be consistently a point or two higher for Labor, but both are broadly in agreement. Anyway, I'll post the Newspoll here soon.

The poll was conducted from April to June - State sample sizes were 845 to 2,014. Tasmania was excluded from separate figures because the sample size was too small but included in the national total. The national sample size was 6,884. Margin of error was 1.2% nationally and 3.4% for the state with the smallest sample.

Primary vote at the election

Party:                    Labor     Coalition     Greens     Others
Nation-wide            38.0        43.6            11.8          6.6
NSW                       37.7         44.1            10.7          7.5
Vic                          42.8         39.6            12.7          4.9
Qld                         33.6         47.4            10.9          8.1
SA                          40.7         40.2            12.0          7.1
WA                         31.2         50.6            13.1          5.1
Male                       34            45               14             7
Female                   38            42               14             6
18-34                     34            35               22             9
35-49                     35            45               14             6
50+                        38            48               9               5
State Capitals        40.1         42.1            12.8          5.0
Non-Capitals          34.8         45.9            10.3          9.0


Primary vote in the latest poll

Party:                    Labor     Coalition     Greens     Others
Nation-wide             30           47               12            11
NSW                        29           47               12             12
Vic                           34           42               15              9
Qld                          22           54               11             13
SA                           33           45               10             12
WA                          32           48               11              9
Male                        28           49               11             12
Female                    31           44               14             11
State Capitals         30           46               14             10
Non-Capitals           28           49               10             13


Labor vs Coalition 2PP
                              Election                Poll
Nation-wide         50.1-49.9             44-56
NSW                     49.5-50.5             44-56
Vic                        55.3-44.7             51-49
Qld                       44.9-55.1             35-65
SA                        53.2-46.8             47-53
WA                       43.6-56.4             45-55
State Capitals      52.5-47.5             46-54
Non-Capitals        46.6-53.4             42-58

So 1975 all over again when I plug this into Green's 2010 swingometer, but ultimately I think the 2PP margin will be 5-7 points. So every QLD ALP MP goes down, including the Cabinet troika. Talk about Portillo moments, unless you guys call them Howard moments over there. :P

I agree with you that the swing reported in the poll is probably larger than swing if an election were actually held. Additionally, it's important to note that this poll was taken over the past few months and Labor was doing worse at the start of that period, compared to the end of that period, so that may have over-stated the swing slightly. That said, the Nielson poll (http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/sour-reception-for-carbon-tax-20120701-21b2x.html) out today had Labor's primary vote at 28%, compared to the Coalition's at 48%, and a 2PP of 58-42 in favour of the Coalition. All of Nielson's 1,400 respondants were polled this weekend just gone (Thursday night to Saturday night), so the same argument can't be used there (of it being a long-term poll).

As I've talked about on the chat, Labor have a natural floor of somewhere between 40-45 seats, unless there is a particular event. Add the fact they're the current government, and the floor is about 50-55. which would still be a wipeout, but please don't start salivating over 25 or 30 members. Federal politics is not state politics, and VIC, SA, TAS, and the ACT are not NSW and QLD.

What may be a genuine possiblity though, and one that would be incredibly harmful to Labor going forward, is a truly awful result in the senate. I could very easily see the coalition getting three across the board, and maybe a fourth or at least a non-labor/greens fourth in a couple of states.

Agree with much of what you've said here, particularly about the state divide. I'd expect the polls to tighten closer to the election, but I also expected that in the NSW and Qld state elections. Highly unlikely for the Coalition to win a majority in the Senate (I think I'd say impossible, but can't remember how many seats the Greens and Labor won last election and therefore will carry over into the life of the new parliament) so I wouldn't worry about that if I were you. If Labor's serious about confronting the Greens, as they have implied over the past few days, then Labor will have to agree to the Coalition bill abolishing the Carbon Tax because a Double Dissolution results in lower quotas for the Senate (since there are 12 positions to be elected, not 6), which will make it easier for the Greens to hang onto seats at Labor's expense.

Latest Newspoll is out today. As before, first bracketted number is the election result, second bracketted number is the change since the last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor          (38%) 31% (+1%)
Coalition     (43.6%) 38% (+2%)
Greens        (11.8%) 11% (-1%)
Others        (6.6%) 10% (-2%)

Two Party Preferred
Labor (50.1%) 44% (-1%) vs Coalition (49.9%) 56% (+1%)

1141 Respondents, MoE +/-3%

Here are my predictions.

The leaders will not change by the time for the next federal election, so both Gillard and Abbott will still be in place.
The 2PP margin will be something like 54-46.
Kevin Rudd will stand down at this election if he is not picked as party leader, likely putting Griffith at risk to the Liberals.
Labor will be reduced to 2 seats in Tasmania, Lyons and Franklin.
Labor will have 0-2 seats in Western Australia, with Brand gone.
Labor will lose Lingiari in the Northern Territory.
Labor will lose 2PP everywhere except Victoria, ACT, and possibly Tasmania.
Bill Shorten will get the leadership if he wants it after the election, but there will be a 50/50 chance he won't take it since Abbott will likely be in for at least 2-3 terms. If he does, his deputy will be either Greg Combet or Tanya Plibersek.

What are your thoughts/feedback on these? I've only been following Australian politics well for about six months, so these may not be the most accurate guesses.

Abbott wins bigger than John Howard did in '96? Weaker opponent (to say the least) but much better economy.

I really don't think the stronger economy part will pay that big of a role. Howard had an excellent economy and the trust of the people in 2007, but still went down by over 5 points. Gillard is an exceptionally poor candidate (whatever you think of her policies) who lacks charisma and credibility with the public. She's certainly no Paul Keating.

Lingiari is a very big call, but that said, I was predicting Indiana for Obama back in about March 2008, so it's probably not a bigger call than that. I would be very surprised if it changed hands, however.

Lyons and Frankin retention for Labor isn't too out there... Bass is I think almost certain to change, and it's not outlandish to think Braddon might also. The real question, then, is Denison. A few seat polls recently suggest he's probably doing well. I don't think he'll get Liberal preferences, but if he's doing as well on primary vote as recent polls suggest, he'll probably finish first and get enough preferences (even if everyone preferenced against him, he'd probably pick up enough leakages to fall across the line, but I think at the very least, the Greens will preference him and he'll just get there). One of the recent polls had him first and the Liberals second - if that's the case, Labor would really need to hope for Greens preferences and other independent preferences to pull in front of the Liberals, and then to pick up Liberal preferences to pull in front of Wilkie, whereas I think it's more likely that if it's 1. Wilkie, 2. Liberals, he'll almost certainly win with preferences from the Greens and Labor. That said, Labor might preference the Liberals, because a Liberal MP would probably only hold the seat for a single term, and then Labor could win the seat back, whereas Wilkie serving a second term would be harder to dislodge at the following election.

Brand is also a big call, but not an unrealistic one. I think Stephen Smith will retain Perth, so I don't think Labor will be reduced to 0 seats in WA. I could be wrong, though. The tougher question for WA is what happens in O'Connor (where the WA National ran against an incumbent Liberal, won, and announced he would sit on the crossbenches, not as part of the Coalition - I assume this means that there will be a Liberal candidate against him this election).

New Newspoll out. I'll wait for Smid to post the full thing but 2PP is 56/44 and primary 46-28.

Indeed it is. Here are the numbers:

As before, first bracketted number is the election result, second bracketted number is the change since the last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor          (38%) 28% (-3%)
Coalition     (43.6%) 46% (-2%)
Greens        (11.8%) 11% (-)
Others        (6.6%) 15% (+5%)

Two Party Preferred
Labor (50.1%) 44% (-) vs Coalition (49.9%) 56% (-)

1158 Respondents, MoE +/-3%

Primary slips below 30 again.

Any chance Gillard continues as Labor leader if the defeat is narrow enough?

This is her last election as leader.

There will be a by-election in Lalor after the election.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/labor-has-no-hope-with-julia-gillard/story-e6frgczx-1226430400815

Labor failed to secure candidates in five Queensland seats, two of which were held by Labor before the last election (Dawson and Flynn). A third, Herbert, was also notionally Labor until 2010. If this happens, will the party just pick some college students/minor party activists to be its sacrificial lambs or will it not contest these seats at all? (I know in Quebec last year, the NDP picked a number of college students to contest seemingly safe seats and they won. While I understand that situation was quite different than the one for Queensland Labor, it seems better to have people in the waiting.)

http://www.news.com.au/national/kevin-rudd-renominates-for-labor-preselection-in-south-brisbane-seat-of-griffith/story-e6frfkvr-1226409700526

So Rudd is renominating. I understand he thinks he could become PM before the next election, but after that, his political career doesn't seem to have too bright a future. Could we see a Griffith by-election after the election? (Lol, maybe Anna Bligh could take a crack at the seat.)

They'll gain some uni students to contest. Happened in the NSW state election for safe rural seats.

The latest Newspoll is out

As before, first bracketted number is the election result, second bracketted number is the change since the last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor          (38%) 33% (+5%)
Coalition     (43.6%) 45% (-1%)
Greens        (11.8%) 10% (-1%)
Others        (6.6%) 12% (-3%)

Two Party Preferred
Labor (50.1%) 46% (+2%) vs Coalition (49.9%) 54% (-2%)

1141 Respondents, MoE +/-3%

Dead cat bounce or did Lab have some good news recently? Biggest primary bump we've seen in a while.

Labor didn't so much have good news, but rather no news... it's Winter Recess and the Olympics have taken most media coverage. With the focus off the government, there seems to have been something of a recovery. I don't like including leadership ratings here because they don't change the primary vote/2PP polls, but I might mention them because they seem to back up this "no criticisim" period - the PM's satisfied level has stayed the same, and her dissatisfied level has dropped 3%. The Opposition Leader's satisfied level has increased 2% and his dissatisfied level has dropped 5%, however the Opposition Leader is attracting 2% less support on the question of preferred PM, although he's lost that support to "Uncommitted" rather than directly to the PM. When the Olympics conclude and the focus is turned back on the Government, I suspect things may change a little once more.

The latest Newspoll is out, taken 17-19 August.

As before, first bracketted number is the election result, second bracketted number is the change since the last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor          (38%) 35% (+2%)
Coalition     (43.6%) 45% (nc)
Greens        (11.8%) 11% (+1%)
Others        (6.6%) 9% (-3%)

Two Party Preferred
Labor (50.1%) 47% (+1%) vs Coalition (49.9%) 53% (-1%)

1129 Respondents, MoE +/-3%
9% uncommitted and 2% refused were excluded from the sample.

Summer bounce, right?

There are a few theories out there... But I don't think so (or Winter bounce, for that matter, since our seasons are reversed).

Firstly, the Prime Minister backed down on asylum seeker policy. She's implemented one of the three planks of the Coalition's policy, as recommended by the panel of experts she appointed six or so weeks ago. There were news stories praising her for breaking the deadlock, there were news stories condemning her for not having acted sooner and for dismantling this policy when Labor first came to office, and there have been news stories condemning her for being too harsh by going back to Howard Government policy - so the plus one to the Greens might have been disgruntled Labor voters adopting that third position, but it seems that generally the electorate is viewing the policy backdown as a positive for Labor.

The other reason being cited is state-level factors, particularly in Queensland. The government is considerably decreasing the number of public sector jobs in the bureaucracy (not front-line workers like police, nurses and teachers). A non-partisan friend of mine who used to be in the public service up there, and with a number of friends in the public service up there, and whose company has several departments as a client, was saying that if you look at the jobs figures under the previous government, the public service was used as a way of hiding the true level of unemployment, and that the public service is too bloated and that when he was visiting a client a couple of weeks ago, there were numerous examples that he could see of people with nothing to do. That said, he also believes that the cuts go too far. I think that's probably an unbiased assessment - that it needed to be done, but this is seen as too many jobs.

This is reflected in a ReachTEL poll (http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/newman-cops-battering-in-state-poll) commissioned by Channel Nine and on which Channel Nine News reported last night. ReachTEL does push-button-response style polling, which gives them higher response numbers (since they're not paying a call centre). They do quite a bit of single electorate polling for this reason (and are typically the only public polling company that does single electorate polling, because they're the only ones who use that style of polling and therefore the only company where it's economical to do that). They haven't been around long enough for me to have an opinion on their accuracy. The poll shows the LNP dropping by 12% compared to the election result, and Labor increasing by 10%. On the question "The Queensland Premier Campbell Newman is implementing a number of initiatives to reduce the states debt. How do you feel about the new initiatives?" 49.3% responded with "Gone too far."

That said, these numbers seem to have come off "Others" rather than the Coalition. Perhaps Coalition supporters don't oppose what's being done, but there were some who were upset at Federal Labor, who had parked their vote with "others" and are now returning because of Queensland State Government public sector cuts? Of course, I don't know what's causing it and the poll doesn't reveal state figures, but that's one of the theories I heard discussed on the news this morning, and it was also mentioned last weekend (as in, a week ago, and before this ReachTEL poll) on The Insiders.

Hmm. Once Parliament resumes there should be another uptick. I expect the final 2PP margin to be no more than 53-54.

I agree. Elections in Australia are apparently never won by huge margins, even if a party has huge leads during the campaign.

In the past 63 years (http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/Australian_Electoral_History/House_of_Representative_1949_Present.htm), representing 25 federal elections, the highest nation-wide Two Party Preferred vote received was 56.9% by the Coalition in 1966, followed by 55.7% for the Coalition in 1975. The highest 2PP result for Labor was 53.23% in 1983. This gives a range of results of just over 10%. Even in 1996, the Coalition only obtained 53.63%, and in 2004, 52.74%.

Obviously, state-wide ranges vary more considerably - even disregarding the ACT (for being so small), with its 22.3% range of 2PP results. Tasmania is over 17% and Victoria is over 16% from best to worst result in 2PP.

Furthermore, although there was a 2.58% swing to the Coalition nationally in 2010 (http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseTppByState-15508.htm), this was by no means uniform. There were swings to Labor in Tasmania (4.41%), Victoria (1.04%) and South Australia (0.78%). Indeed, despite a knife-edge result nationally (second narrowest margin since 1949 - only slightly wider than 1990), Victoria and Tasmania recorded their strongest result for Labor in that time.

In terms of swing from one election to the next, the largest swing was recorded in 1975 (7.1% to the Coalition), with the second-largest in 1969 (7.1% to Labor - interestingly, the election before they formed government). In recent years, the largest swings were in 2007 (5.44% to Labor), 1996 (5.07% to Coalition) and 1998 (4.61% to Labor). Of the 25 elections, only 6 have experienced a swing to the incumbent government, while 18 elections have swung against the governing party (and swing isn't available for the 1949 election, obviously).

EDIT: It's not immediately obvious, but I was saying all that to support your "never won by huge margins" comment.

The latest Newspoll is out, taken 31 August - 2 September.

As before, first bracketted number is the election result, second bracketted number is the change since the last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor          (38%) 33% (-2%)
Coalition     (43.6%) 46% (+1%)
Greens        (11.8%) 8% (-3%)
Others        (6.6%) 11% (+2%)

Two Party Preferred
Labor (50.1%) 45% (-2%) vs Coalition (49.9%) 55% (+2%)

1151 Respondents, MoE +/-3%
7% uncommitted and 2% refused were excluded from the sample.

So the latest Newspoll has Labor and the Coalition tied at 50% on 2PP. Is there an outlier or are there plausible explanations for this result?

This pollster bumps around a bit too much for my taste, especially given all we know about GE volatility in Australia.

I second TexasDem's question. We haven't seen Lab tied or ahead in over a year.

Read his post guys, the number in the brackets is from the election. Labor is down 55-45.

We're not referring to Smid's post from September 3rd. We mean the Newspoll that came out today.

http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/labor-gillard-pull-ahead-in-latest-polls-20120917-260ww.html

The latest Newspoll is out, taken 14-16 September.

As before, first bracketted number is the election result, second bracketted number is the change since the last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor          (38%) 36% (+3%)
Coalition     (43.6%) 41% (-5%)
Greens        (11.8%) 12% (+4%)
Others        (6.6%) 11% (-2%)

Two Party Preferred
Labor (50.1%) 50% (+5%) vs Coalition (49.9%) 50% (-5%)

1,166 respondents, MoE +/- 3%
6% uncommitted and 2% refused were excluded from the sample.

That's good, though I reckon there's a significant bounce there. But it makes me more confident of us winning 2013.

Newspoll last year got the election result dead on IIRC.

Yes, Newspoll has been very bouncy of late, although somewhat explainable. The headline accompanying last fortnights poll was "Riddle me this: both leaders are unpopular" (or words to that effect). This fortnight saw the Prime Minister's father pass away, which (fairly) meant that the Opposition didn't get stuck into her. There may also be a bit of public sympathy reflected in the poll. At the same time, the Opposition Leader has faced an extremely negative personal campaign over the past week. 35 year old claims from his university politics days came up, completely unsubstantiated by witnesses, which did not stop most news agencies running the sorry. That said, Newspoll's personal ratings for him haven't really changed - approvals down one, disposals up one, it's the O'Neil numbers that have changed the most, with both moving 5 points in the right direction for her. Preferred PM also shifted in her favour, she's up seven and the Opposition Leader down six.

Neilson is better for the Liberals, also out today, showing the Coalition on 53% 2PP.

I think most news agencies ran the story because it was so thoroughly believable.

-------

Not reading too much in to this poll, will wait for it to be reconfirmed next time. Pretty confident the libs are still up 2pp, but also confident Gillard's gap as preferred PM is growing.

I wasn't referring to their final poll, which by definition does not bump around.

Also,
Sounds right. A lot of this is probably just people looking at Abbott more closely as election time comes nearer.

The latest Newspoll is out, taken 5-7 October.

As before, first bracketted number is the election result, second bracketted number is the change since the last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor          (38%) 33% (-3%]
Coalition     (43.6%) 45% (+4%)
Greens        (11.8%) 10% (-2%)
Others        (6.6%) 12% (+1%)

Two Party Preferred
Labor (50.1%) 46% (-4%) vs Coalition (49.9%) 54% (+4%)

1,168 respondents, MoE +/- 3%
7% uncommitted and 2% refused were excluded from the sample.

OK, so the last one was a rogue poll. Still smooth sailing.

Recent polls done by Roy Morgan shows the ALP in the lead...

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4834/

If accurate, this is amazing.

Morgan is widely viewed as a joke IIRC.

Not in Australia where you either have Right-wing Newspoll or Left-wing Niellson...

Morgan is consistently about four points to the left of both Newspoll and Neilson. I suspect this is because of his insistence on face-to-face polling ensuring he over-represents urban/suburban voters and under-represents rural voters, where his polling staff would need to drive a kilometre out two from property to property. He predicted Howard would lose in his poll released the night before the 2001 election, and also that Kennett would lose, when he actually won in a landslide. Morgan has a deeply flawed methodology and the only way to credibly observe his polls is if you factor in a shift to the Coalition, like a clock that you know is always give minutes late.

Anyway, once again the Abbott train crashes with his highly offensive comment and attack on Julia Gillard's childless status.

He has 1 month.

What did he say exactly ?

Most predicted this...

And now the newspoll is back to 50-50? Can someone explain what on Earth is going on?

Actually, Newspoll had Coalition 2PP at 53 in its final poll before the election. I'm not sure about Neilsen, but I'm pretty sure that of the pollsters used by the media, Morgan was the only one to predict a Beazley victory.

The latest Newspoll is out, taken 26-28 October.

As before, first bracketted number is the election result, second bracketted number is the change since the last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor          (38%) 36% (+3%)
Coalition     (43.6%) 41% (-4%)
Greens        (11.8%) 10% (nc%)
Others        (6.6%) 13% (+1%)

Two Party Preferred
Labor (50.1%) 50% (+4%) vs Coalition (49.9%) 50% (-4%)

1,176 respondents, MoE +/- 3%
6% uncommitted and 1% refused were excluded from the sample.

Gillard will win, she's really turned the tide. She's a very smart woman.

Morgan is a joke, I never EVER take them seriously.

Both Neilsen and Newspoll show a tightening towards the Government and Gillard pulling away as preferred PM - Abbott looks the most vulnerable he has since getting the leadership.

Let's see if this becomes a trend.

I've fallen away from Australia of late. Why this surge?

It's still, as it inevitably was always going to be, people being terrified of Abbott.

Maxine McKew made a little aside that I thought was actually bang-on, but i'm paraphrasing: "Abbott is about two gaffes away from being ousted".

He does so like pointing that machine gun at his foot.

Who would replace Abbott in said scenario? Hockey?

Julie Bishop? Sophie Mirabella? Bill Heffernan?

One can only hope...

John McTernan took over as Director of Communications.

The government has been so personally grubby and negative, which unfortunately works. The difference between the Opposition attacks and the Government's is that the Opposition focuses on policies - carbon tax, boats, budget deficits, while the Government's attacks can be summarised "Abbott is a thug/sexist" - they're playing the man, not the ball. It's a successful strategy, that's lifting the Government in the polls, but I just think it's grubby.

Oh Smiddy...

I agree with some of this, but the idea that Abbott & Co are somehow above the fray on 'personal attacks'? Come on.

Abbott has been the Coalition's Achilles' Heel... he has been the one that cannot do anything other than negativity. This close to an election, Abbott should be creating a narrative as to why THEY would be BETTER. Gillard is gaining traction for a number of reasons, 1. exploiting the general dislike and unease with Tony Abbott (and hardly lying about his previous statements) 2. the Carbon Price coming in and people realising the world has not collapsed (neutering the primary Coalition talking point) 3. Gillard looks stronger, she doesn't look as beleaguered as she did 6 months ago... Rudd's chances are gone... and she's pretty much secure in the leadership now.

Essential Research

Approval
Gillard: 41% (NC)
Abbott: 33% (-4)

Disapproval
Gillard: 49% (-2) (lowest net disapproval for nearly 2 years)
Abbott: 58% (+4) (his highest ever net disapproval)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 45%
Abbott: 32%

Primary vote
ALP: 37% (NC)
Coalition: 45% (-1)
Greens: 9% (NC)

TPP
ALP: 48%
Coalition: 52%

Issue is women are turning HARD against Abbott...

Abbott's over all net disapproval: -25
Abbott's net disapproval with women: -30

Gillard's lead as preferred PM: 13%
Gillard's lead as preferred PM with women only: 21%

I've never heard of them before. How reputable are they? # are believable though.

They're not too bad... people tend to paint pollsters with the same varnish that we tend to give to US pollsters. Overall, most Australian pollsters are on the level... all except Morgan, who are just crap.

They've been among the more Coalition-sympathetic (in terms of numbers) - but they're definitely picking up on what's being observed in both Nielsen and Newspoll... Gillard's approval rating and popularity are increasing, as are the ALP's prospects - Abbott's personal standing, which was not an issue before because Gillard was either in the same position, or worse, is starting to have a dragging effect on the Coalition. Which is something a lot of people knew was a HUGE risk with Abbott.

When they started out, they were terrible (a self-selecting internet poll). Whereas Morgan is probably about Labor +4, early on, Essential was probably Labor +6. They corrected their issues with methodology, however (I don't know what they changed, but saw a press release saying they had changed their methodology) and now, as Polnut notes, they regularly resemble Newspoll and Neilson numbers, so I think they're fairly accurate. I don't automatically adjust them in my mind anymore.

It seems Abbott is slowly doing a "Romney" with women in this upcoming election... I've seen Gillard's response to him in Parliament on sexism, it was pretty bloody !

I've seen a photo with Abbott haranguing his followers backed by banners saying: Julia Gillard is a b**** and a w****. Enough said. On the other hand Gillard didn't make a favour to the cause of feminism trying to protect Peter Slipper, accused of sexual harassment.

Um... Slipper was accused of sexually harassing another man.

Newspoll - 13 November 2012

Primary vote
ALP: 36% (NC)
Coalition: 43% (+2)
Greens: 10% (NC)

TPP
ALP: 49% (-1)
Coalition: 51% (+1)

Satisfaction
Gillard: 37% (+3)
Abbott: 27% (-3)

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 52% (+1)
Abbott: 63% (+5)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 46% (+1)
Abbott: 32% (-2)

....yeah, so that's another poll with Abbott's personal ratings slipping further, in fact, these are his worst numbers since becoming leader in December 2009.

Really? I've watched the video and read about that argument in the House of Representatives in a Women's blog. It wasn't mentioned that the harassed was a man, but it mentions a "collaborator" (in Spanish, "colaborador" can refer to a man or functions as "generic masculine") There was a quote of some article in the Sidney Morning Herald by Michelle Grattan. The link seems to be broken and I can't find the text right now, but it seems that Grattan wrote (roughly) something like this: "Maybe (Gillard) has become in the heroine of some feminists belting Abbott, but she has betrayed feminism trying to protect Slipper, condemning the messages isn't enough mitigating". In general sexual harassment is not good seen by feminists, regardless of the victim's sex.

It seems that the gap is reducing according to that poll.

Either Abbott fixes his personal image or runs only on the party brand and ABL sentiment, since he doesn't have a positive policy agenda.

I assume you mean 'Anyone but Labor'?

Yeah. :P

Personally, I still feel like the Liberals will win with a comfortable majority (a la Labor 2007), but I feel the 2PP is now much closer to what the results will be - perhaps add a point or two to the Libs.  However, those polls that had Labor 10 points down just weren't going to happen.

Of course not- both parties have a floor of 46-47%.

This is the problem...

Abbott's been leader for 3 years, for 2.5 of those years he's waged one of the most vicious negative opposition strategies I've ever seen... he felt comfortable in doing that a) because it's his natural habitat and b) he expected to ride anti-Labor sentiment to the election, so who he is or what his party represents is somewhat irrelevant.

Abbott suddenly trying to change his image, namely with his wife coming to his defense, was a horrible mistake. Because by wheeling the wife out, it pretty much just confirmed ALL of the reporting about Abbott's problem with women... any other attempts to soften his image would be viewed with deep, deep suspicion by the public.

The other key problem is that the Coalition's entire strategy was built around public paranoia about the carbon tax... and all the personal issues that supposedly raises about Gillard... however, Gillard is now more personally popular than Abbott and the carbon tax is here and most people have just gotten on with it. Plus, once people know how difficult it would be to undo ... the appetite will wane further. So the ABL sentiment that's been there for nearly two years... has diminished considerably over the last six months... and it is not a winning strategy.

The ALP needs to get its primary vote to around 38% to have a chance at winning re-election next year. At the moment, the Coalition would JUST squeak in if an election were held now. But what's really telling to me are two things. The first is that Abbott used to be possessed of a clear confidence, and Gillard looked hunted and a bit mechanical... but recently, Gillard looks a lot more confident and Abbott has noticeably 'shrunk'. The other thing, Rudd/Gillard leadership rumblings have stopped dead...

For the first time since Gillard secured Government, I think it's a coin-toss. This isn't just me saying it, my friends inside the bubbles on both sides think it's a new ball game and whatver momentum there is, is behind the Government. The issue is whether it's enough and in the right places to protect them.

You would need 39 Senate seats for repeal, which he might never get- and usually bad things happen to Coalition governments that get a de jure majority. All depends on what happens in the campaign. If Abbott blows it a la 1993 then he'd be a sure goner, though dunno who'd replace him. I guess Bishop or Hockey.

Bishop's got the problem of being an unmarried career woman... to the Liberal base.. that's definitely not a positive. If you see her married in the next 3-7 months, you'll know why. Hockey's got what I call Beazley syndrome (despite Beazley being probably the best PM we've never had) he's too nice.

I genuinely think, the only option is Turnbull... Howard was a disastrous Opposition Leader before getting it right next time...

I certainly hope Labor stays in, and I certainly see momentum moving Gillard's way, but I just feel the Abbot sleaze-machine will rear its nasty head - although, that has started to become rather detrimental to Abbot...

Exactly... if one of your primary issues is being perceived as nasty and negative... running a dirty/sleazy/negative campaign doesn't serve your purposes.

The Coalition cannot hope the Gillard/ALP momentum stalls, they have to provide a positive agenda to counter what the ALP is proposing... I genuinely can't see that working with Abbott as leader.

The base doesn't want him, too wet.

That's true, but if polling shows Turnbull is more palatable ...

Newspoll - 26/11/2012

Primary vote
ALP: 36% (NC)
Coalition: 43% (NC)
Greens: 11% (+1)

TPP
ALP: 49% (NC)
Coalition: 51% (NC)

Satisfaction
Gillard: 37% (NC)
Abbott: 30% (+3)

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 52% (NC)
Abbott: 61% (-2)

Net Satisfaction
Gillard: -15%
Abbott: -31%

Preferred PM
Gillard: 46% (NC)
Abbott: 33% (+1)

...the thing to consider, is that 2010 was a genuinely pissed-off electorate, so using the 2010 preference flows might not be too wise.

Didn't we just go through the voter-screen debate in the US election? Except now the roles are reversed. :P

In all seriousness, looks like Abbott is stabilizing for now.

...and who was right in the end? :P plus it's a different kind of discussion, even Antony Green thinks the 2010 preference flows would be misleading applied 2 years down the track, all I'm saying is that when people are asked in addition to their primary vote intention, to discuss their preferences, there have only been a few of these polls (so the sample size is horrific), but the ALP generally picks up about 1.3% in the TPP vote when they determine the vote based on current preference intentions. It's an anecdotal point, but I doubt is all that important.

Abbott recovered from rock-bottom to weak. I never thought he could go any lower than that, plus it's interesting that his 'recovery' was not at the expense of Gillard.

Expecting 2004 and getting 1998 would be a letdown for him, dunno if that would cause long-term damage. Hell, would Gillard even resign if Abbott got a small majority?

In 2010, Abbott was probably the single-biggest reason they Coalition couldn't get a majority in its own right. Analysis and exit polling suggested that dislike/mistrust of Abbott and his world-view moved last minute undecideds toward Gillard.

If it comes down to a coin-toss next year, the preferred PM standing should be taken into consideration. As a general rule, it's never been a strong indicator... however, if Gillard can maintain the preferred PM number and keep the primary in the mid-late 30s and the TPP within spitting distance, I think that could be enough.

It'd be another nail-biter.

The issue for the Coalition is finding ALP seats to nab, my bet is both Denison and Melbourne will go 'home' to the ALP... the Coalition state governments in QLD, VIC and NSW are having a dragging effect on the coalition nationally.... there's quite a bit of buyer's remorse going on. Put it this way, looking at the architecture of this future race, all things being equal... you wouldn't exactly be panic-stricken if you were Gillard. As I've been told by friends inside both sides, neither side wants an election now... you did not hear that from the Coalition 6 months ago.

Sorry I missed posting this the other day, I've been a bit busy.

The latest Newspoll is out, taken 7-9 December.

As before, first bracketted number is the election result, second bracketted number is the change since the last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor          (38%) 32% (-4%]
Coalition     (43.6%) 46% (+3%)
Greens        (11.8%) 11% (nc%)
Others        (6.6%) 11% (+1%)

Two Party Preferred
Labor (50.1%) 46% (-3%) vs Coalition (49.9%) 54% (+3%)

1,173 respondents, MoE +/- 3%
6% uncommitted and 4% refused were excluded from the sample.

I saw this poll a few days ago - is there a particular reason for the shift, or is the tide simply starting to turn back away from Gillard? :(

It was a blip in an otherwise downhill trend. Sorta like the first US debate.

First Newspoll of 2013... all my caveats on election-year polling understood?

Primary vote
ALP: 38% (+6)
Coalition: 43% (-2)
Greens: 9% (-2)

TPP
ALP: 49% (+3)
Coalition: 51% (-3)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 45% (+2)
Abbott: 33%

Satisfaction
Gillard: 38% (+2)
Abbott: 29% (+1)

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 49% (-3)
Abbott: 58% (-1)

Net Satisfaction
Gillard: -11
Abbott: -29