Talk Elections

46 Romney
44 Obama

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/04/12/fox-news-poll-romney-edges-obama-as-approval-president-drops/

I'm sure this will give the Fox hosts something to brag about.

In other news, Jesus is viewed as favourable by 95% of Americans according to a recent Fox News poll. Also, a separate Fox News poll shows that 99% of Americans believe Barack Obama is a radical communist who deserves the death penalty.

Actually, the national polls have been more favorable to Romney than the state polls, which I don't understand.

Romney +2 on a sample that disapproves of Obama 42-51.

Somewhat odd outlier or some sort of bounce from Santorum dropping out. I'd be more inclined to believe the former but we shall see if any other polling backs this up.


Also this. That sums to roughly an R+4 oversample or thereabouts, and besides, it's Fox News.

Again I say it's because people aren't really paying full attention yet hence why poll's don't make sense. I'd wait until after Labor day(or shortly before) before gauging anything seriously.

LOL at poor old Fox.

Issues I have with this poll

-In the sample, Reps and Dems are even. Does not show a dem advantage in registration

-approval rating of 42% seems to be a statistical outlier for the president

-the questions seem misleading and skewed to a republican perspective, like the one about the national debt

-He is at only 43% approval with those under 35. This number is statistically the same as his overall approval and is another outlier

-his non white support is only at 35%, another outlier. In almost every poll it hovers around or slightly above 40%

-Romney leads Obama with independents by double digits, huge outlier

Oh look, another useless national poll.

Seems legit.

Looks like BS to me.

The sample for this poll is 40% Democratic, 39% Republican, and 19% Independent. That is inconsistent with the previous five presidential elections in which Democrats have enjoyed ~4% advantage on Republicans with Independents not coming in under 26% of the vote in since 1992. In other words; wishful thinking on FOX's part.

Legitimately flawed.

Well to me it does seem legit. Just as legit as this

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I rather believe unicorns are real than believe the polling at FOX news.

Keep the rationalizing and the excuses coming. 

I love reading them and really enjoy all your squirming.

Fox News polls are just as credible as MSNBC polls.

The onus is on you to explain why we should take a Fox News poll seriously, genius.

Well, you got your wish my friend.

The brand spanking new Rasmussen poll has Romney up by 5 over Obama, Romney 48, Obama 43.

OK, let the excuses and rationalization begin.

I'm waiting..........:D

IT'S RASMUSSEN. The only thing that needs to be excused or rationalized is taking it a jot more seriously than Zogby at this point.

Ah, yes.  Back up one right wing, inaccurate pollster... by bringing up another right wing, inaccurate pollster!  You're just full of great ideas!

How's Romney going to do in California, again?

Well, let me think now, hmmm, the Fox poll confirmed by the Rasmussen poll.

But really, you're too kind considering me to be a genius.  No, really, too kind, but thanks anyway.

And Colorado.

Ahh, more excuses.

What's your next one gonna be..........

Well, this pollster didn't have Wheaties for breakfast, so his poll is all wrong, an outlier.....

It is ridiculous to brush Rasmussen off as 'inaccurate'. Their sample might be off but they were very good in the past couple presidential races. And how dare you leftist hacks brush them off as "Republican" then tout PPP's numbers when they are a Democratic pollster?

What I do know is that, as of now, Mitt is kickin' Barack's butt.

And by the way, make sure you read the post from ShadowOfTheWave.  Bang on.

Okay, don't even address any of our points.

Liberals here deem polls with high favorables for Obama as outliers all the time- myself, included.  If it's a pollster that's either biased, has a poor track record (on ALL races- not just presidential), or posts absurd numbers, it shouldn't be taken seriously.  Period.

Great argument!

Your hackery knows no bounds.

I ju-

Did I read this post correctly?

Mitt must be at 300% in Texas. There's no other way to reconcile this with the dozens of state polls by every polling outfit around.

It's not solely because they're Republican, it's because their sampling, bizarre swings, and general quality have in fact suffered greatly over the past few years. PPP was much more accurate in 2010 and actually was found to exhibit a slight Republican bias.

In this particular case, Rasmussen has been a few points more Republican than the other pollsters, or had oddly high undecideds, or exhibited strange swings, or some combination of the three at quite a few points in this cycle. Polls that would (will?) give me cause for concern at this point would be Gallup, PPP, or any of various state polls. If those do show Romney tied with or with-MOE-ahead-of Obama at this point I'll gladly accept it (for given values of 'to accept') as a genuine 'presumptive nominee' bounce, which I confide will be short-term unless something goes wrong or the President does something stupid.

Until then, it's a couple of right-leaning pollsters understandably trying to capitalize on the perception that there perhaps should be a 'presumptive nominee' bounce and/or using weird samples like they have a history of doing.

If Rasmussen's polling is borne out further down the line I'll gladly retract the extreme suspicion that I have of it presently.


This as well.

Not to rain on the Democratic parade here, but as far as I can recall Fox polls haven't been that bad historically. Back when I followed pollster quality more closely they were considered one of the more reliable ones, actually.

EDIT: that's not to say that I buy this or dispute any of the legitimate gripes with partisan reg numbers and so on - just to say that I'm not sure the "it's Fox, haha" line of attack is necessarily that valid.

It's a bogus poll.

For those defending this poll: Do any of you actually believe that the sample used to conduct this poll is reflective of what the electorate will look like on election day? 19% Independent? Not happening.

Honestly+seriously, doesn't he have to do SOMETHING to offset the inevitable stupid things ? ? ?

also, this isn't a 'bump', It is the start of the race.  It could act like a bump or this might be the normal trend line of the race.  It started 4 days ago, so how can you 'bump' from before the start?     

FoX News went from the very objective Opinion Dynamics to a different pollster. Changing pollsters without telling people is a bad practice.

FoX Propaganda Channel played up this poll this morning. FoX has a tendency to force a story to fit its agenda. 

The bump, if it's real, would be from the 'start of the race' and the optics for Romney of actually being a presumptive nominee, relative to the months and months of Obama-Romney polling before this.

The problem for Romney going forward is that he is either still the same person now as he was a week ago or he has left a truly massive swath of evidence from having opportunistically changed to be otherwise.

I had a Gallup poll that showed Romney ahead of Obama 47 to 45, and somebody deletes that? What the hell?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153902/Romney-Obama-Tight-Race-Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Begins.aspx (http://www.gallup.com/poll/153902/Romney-Obama-Tight-Race-Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Begins.aspx)

I deleted it.

There's a thread called "National Tracking Poll Thread" on the top, in which we put every tracking poll from now on (Rasmussen, Gallup, whatever comes up next).

Ok cool, I thought it was deleted for another reason.