Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: diarrhea on April 14, 2012, 05:42:32 PM



Title: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: diarrhea on April 14, 2012, 05:42:32 PM
?


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 15, 2012, 05:39:44 AM
Nevada, not for who won it but because the margin was far bigger than expected.


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on April 15, 2012, 08:50:05 AM
The Nebraska 2nd--I don't remember any talk about it. IN and NC were tossups, so not surprising.


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on April 15, 2012, 10:38:48 AM
I didn't know enough about what were Republican and what were Democratic states back then (I had an idea, but nothing too nuanced), but in retrospect without any real thought, I guess I'd say Indiana.


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: Miles on April 15, 2012, 01:21:33 PM
Like Cathcon, I didn't really follow state-level polling in detail then, but I was amazed that Obama got 365 electoral votes. All of my predictions had him getting about 320.


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on April 15, 2012, 02:09:26 PM
I didn't even know there was a place you could go to look up electoral vote counts and stuff like that. :P My election night story is my history teacher giving each of us a blank US map and telling us to go home that night and fill it in as states were called. The only states I have any memory of are Ohio ("this is important!" I had no idea why), Missouri (Me: Shouldn't it go Republican? They still haven't called it. Uh-oh) and Florida (That's not going Republican either! They still haven't called it! No!). I remember filling in the vast majority of the map but for a few, FL, MO, and a couple others. I wish I could find that map and see how far I'd gotten.


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on April 15, 2012, 02:25:38 PM
I actually found it in a stack of folders stashed in a part of my room. I guess I should actually throw that stuff away, but this is what I had down before I was sent to bed (in real life colors of course, as that was what I colored it in):
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I guess at the tiem for me it was Florida given that I was really hoping it'd go for McCain. The next couple days or so I looked up the final results online and much to my dismay, it went for Obama.


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: politicus on April 15, 2012, 04:44:55 PM
Indiana.


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: nclib on April 15, 2012, 06:11:35 PM
The Nebraska 2nd--I don't remember any talk about it. IN and NC were tossups, so not surprising.

Would agree, but voted Indiana because it's easier to swing 1 CD than a state equal to 9 (or 13 CD's). Was impressed but not as surprised with NC since there are a lot of Northerners moving here and we have a higher black population to begin with.


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: Del Tachi on April 15, 2012, 09:30:20 PM
I'd say Florida. Just because it was not as close as it should have been.  Florida has never been a good state for Obama demographically.


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: Chaddyr23 on April 28, 2012, 12:47:16 AM
Indiana simply for the fact at how sharply it swung and the President ended up winning it


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 28, 2012, 06:01:23 AM
Difference between 538.com's forecasted margin and actual results :

- Grey : within 1%
- Between 1% and 2,5%
- Between 2,5% and 5%
- Between 5% and 7,5%
- Between 7,5% and 10%
- More than 10%

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Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: rbt48 on May 01, 2012, 03:30:50 PM
Indiana totally surprised me.  I throught that McCain would, at worst, carry it by 1 or 2 %.

Since I live in Omaha and knew how close the Democrat came to unseating Lee Terry in 2006, this was not a big surprise.  But the margin was slim for Obama.  He trailed until the provisional ballots were tallied.


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: Thomas_S_Richard106 on January 16, 2013, 07:33:17 PM
Indiana and Virginia suprised me. I thought McCain would win Indiana and Virginia.


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on May 30, 2013, 04:40:28 PM
I remember plenty of analysts saying that Obama had a chance in NE-02, so I wasn't at all surprised when he won there.  I actually wasn't surprised by any of the results.  North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana were all considered states where Obama had a chance.  Obama led in Virginia for much of the campaign, so that was probably one of the least surprising.  I would probably have to say Missouri, since it was really the only swing state that McCain carried, and that was only by the barest of margins, and even that wasn't a big surprise since it was close in the polls.


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: JRP1994 on July 15, 2013, 10:58:51 PM
1) NE-2
2) Indiana
3) Missouri
4) North Carolina


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: Flake on October 25, 2013, 03:05:43 PM
1) NE-2
2) Indiana
3) Missouri
4) North Carolina


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: TDAS04 on December 28, 2013, 04:54:42 PM


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: Dancing with Myself on December 28, 2013, 07:05:40 PM
NC going to Barry was a big surprise for almost everyone I know including me.  I knew a few pro Obama supporters but almost everyone in my county and those nearby were pro McCain for the most part. I remember at 8:30 seeing Obama up by 100,000 with near half in and  I just sat and stared at the TV for a while, I couldn't believe it.  Compared to 2004 it was a total change across the state and I couldn't believe it.

I didn't get into politics and this forum until the next year, and by 2012 I was ready for anything, but NC and VA going Dem was quite the surprise.  I wish I had tht awareness that year because it was a great year for politics.


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: crash1984 on December 28, 2013, 08:31:08 PM
I was not following politics as much as I do now so then I would say Virginia. Now though I would say that Obama taking Indiana was a bit of a surprise especially when you consider that last year it was called for Romney at 7 p.m.


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: old timey villain on December 28, 2013, 09:09:31 PM
For me it was Georgia. I know Obama didn't win it but he came close without even contesting the state. All my life people had been telling me that Georgia was conservative/republican/red/bush country so it was a pleasant surprise to see a Democrat make inroads here. It made me hopeful for future elections in Georgia.

Besides that probably Indiana. Maybe I wasn't following the election as closely as I should have, but I never heard much about Indiana being a swing state.


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: Supersonic on December 29, 2013, 08:40:36 AM
Indiana definitely. That result came out of nowhere for me. I didn't really understand the splitting of electoral votes in Nebraska at the time so I can't vouch for that.


Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election?
Post by: MATTROSE94 on February 13, 2014, 03:38:23 PM
Probably Indiana, though my final prediction map looked like this (pretty bizzare in retrospect):
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351 Obama-187 McCain