Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: Devils30 on April 18, 2012, 04:11:54 PM



Title: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: Devils30 on April 18, 2012, 04:11:54 PM
Probably not many out there but I think there will be a few. Here are my possibilities:
NC: Nash, Franklin
VA: Southampton
FL: Sarasota, Seminole(stretch here)
PA: not really buying idea of SW flipping back so none
CA: Orange (possible but unlikely barring national shift)
TX: Fort Bend
NJ: Monmouth- this too is a stretch


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: The_Texas_Libertarian on April 18, 2012, 05:11:56 PM
TX - Hays County

In the Austin media market McCain barely won this county in 2008, with the Hispanic population growth and university present Obama could flip this county


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: ajb on April 18, 2012, 05:32:14 PM
There's talk of Obama campaigning harder in AZ this time, and there's some demographic support for his having a real shot. McCain's success depended to a considerable extent on over-performing with Hispanics, and there's a case that that won't happen this time.
But funnily enough, I think if he did win the state, he'd do it without flipping a single county, just narrowing his margin of defeat in Maricopa.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: Brittain33 on April 18, 2012, 05:50:21 PM
How about Virginia Beach City?

McCain won by it a tiny margin and he's got the Navy advantage.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: ajb on April 18, 2012, 05:56:47 PM
How about Virginia Beach City?

McCain won by it a tiny margin and he's got the Navy advantage.
Also, it's gone from  72.5% non-Hispanic White to 64.5% from 2000 to 2010, and from 12% black to 19.6% black.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: perdedor on April 18, 2012, 07:32:38 PM
TX - Hays County

In the Austin media market McCain barely won this county in 2008, with the Hispanic population growth and university present Obama could flip this county

I wouldn't think so. Hays borders the southern side of Travis, which is considerably more white/suburban than the central and northern parts of the county. Obama lost Hays by 2% in 2008 when conditions were near perfect; compare to 56-42 win for Bush in 2004 and a 58-33 win for Bush in 2000 (Nader interestingly pulled 7%). The point being that Obama likely hit his Hays County ceiling in 2008.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: 5280 on April 18, 2012, 07:35:33 PM
What about Deschutes county in Oregon or Spokane county in Washington? Those were nail bitters in 2008.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: LastVoter on April 18, 2012, 07:54:32 PM
I'd say one of the good way to predict whether a county will flip is use Google maps from 2008/2012 and see what kind of construction is being done in the suburb counties(how dense). Hays most of the new subdivisions in Hays county seem to be pretty dense(near Austin), and there are a couple new apartment complexes I found in San Marcos. There is a big subdivision west of San Marcos that looks like a country club that grew a lot however.
What about Deschutes county in Oregon or Spokane county in Washington? Those were nail bitters in 2008.
Deschutes will almost certainly go Obama, Spokane will likely go Obama.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: memphis on April 18, 2012, 07:59:41 PM
Any urban or non-Southern suburban county that was relatively close last time. Demographic changes.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: LastVoter on April 18, 2012, 08:02:34 PM
Any urban or non-Southern suburban county that was relatively close last night. Demographic changes.
I think the county near Austin we are talking about in this thread would be the exception. Also maybe something in NC?


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: Donerail on April 18, 2012, 08:33:53 PM
Probably not many out there but I think there will be a few. Here are my possibilities:
NC: Nash, Franklin
VA: Southampton
FL: Sarasota, Seminole(stretch here)
PA: not really buying idea of SW flipping back so none
CA: Orange (possible but unlikely barring national shift)
TX: Fort Bend
NJ: Monmouth- this too is a stretch

Sarasota and maybe Pasco seem the most likely in Florida. Seminole'll stay R for another couple cycles, but demographics will make it D in 10-20 years. Obama did pretty well in Hernando County too, so there's that.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: Miles on April 18, 2012, 08:39:35 PM

I'd also add Lenior and New Hanover.

Tyrrell, Chowan, Swain, Madison and Yancey are all possible, but they're trending the wrong way.  


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: TJ in Oregon on April 18, 2012, 08:48:42 PM
OH: Harrison, Guernsey, Pike, Morgan, Muskingum, Hocking, Perry, Vinton, and Coshocton are possible. All are in the rural SE, which has been trending toward the GOP, but were close last time. Obama won the swing counties in the rest of the state in '08 already and outside the SE the best possibilities are Huron and Seneca, which won't happen unless it is an epic landslide.

EDIT: I forgot McCain carried Clark County. Clark would be the most likely pick-up for Obama.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on April 18, 2012, 09:12:05 PM
Most likely is Orange in California, but Romney seems like a better fit than McCain. Demographics +poor Romney campaign could cause it to flip.

Del Norte is an odd one. It could flip to Obama's column.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on April 18, 2012, 09:53:00 PM
I think he can flip Denton County, TX or Galveston County, TX blue, although they could be a stretch.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: Indy Texas on April 18, 2012, 10:09:56 PM
I think he can flip Denton County, TX or Galveston County, TX blue, although they could be a stretch.

Denton County is several cycles away from being a Democratic possibility; Tarrant County will go blue before it does. Galveston County has been in a slow decline for the past century and is probably going to get more Republican as time goes on and its population gets smaller.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on April 18, 2012, 10:13:45 PM
I think he can flip Denton County, TX or Galveston County, TX blue, although they could be a stretch.

Galveston County has been in a slow decline for the past century and is probably going to get more Republican as time goes on and its population gets smaller.

But I have seen old maps of it being blue, whatever happened to that? Plus you have to realize Galveston is a blue city, and Texas City, La Marque, having lots of minorties.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: King on April 18, 2012, 10:17:11 PM
Members who have been here for longer than a month and still refer to Republicans as red and Democrats as blue should receive infraction points.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: cinyc on April 18, 2012, 10:43:06 PM
If Obama wins California by the margins the polls have been showing, Orange is a good possibility.

How about Richmond (Staten Island) New York? Killing Bin Laden should reverse any remaining 9/11 effect there.  Upstate there are some very narrow McCain counties, particularly Ontario.

Not going to happen (either Orange or Richmond).  Staten Island (Richmond) is one of the last places I'd expect to trend to Obama.  It is historically Republican and full of Archie Bunker types that simply don't like Obama. 

OC should trend more Republican than 2008 as the Torie Republicans return home.  I also would be surprised to see Sarasota County, Florida flip for similar reasons.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 18, 2012, 10:46:59 PM
If Obama wins California by the margins the polls have been showing, Orange is a good possibility.

How about Richmond (Staten Island) New York? Killing Bin Laden should reverse any remaining 9/11 effect there.  Upstate there are some very narrow McCain counties, particularly Ontario.

Not going to happen (either Orange or Richmond).  Staten Island (Richmond) is one of the last places I'd expect to trend to Obama.  It is historically Republican and full of Archie Bunker types that simply don't like Obama.  

OC should trend more Republican than 2008 as the Torie Republicans return home.  I also would be surprised to see Sarasota County, Florida flip for similar reasons.

Gore won Richmond NY by 7 points so it would be much less shocking from a historical perspective than Orange CA, which I believe last went Democratic in 1936.

Orange CA is down to 44% non-Hispanic white. Obviously many of the other 56% can't vote, but  with that trend it will go Democrat sooner or later.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: DrScholl on April 18, 2012, 10:53:06 PM
Orange County has been on a steady trend away from Republicans, past electoral results show that. Places like Irvine and Costa Mesa are voting more Democratic, than before. It may not flip, but it's not impossible.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 19, 2012, 12:28:52 AM
One place I'd be really looking for this is central Ohio or the close counties in Missouri last time.

But if you forced me to bet on one, I'd put my money on Spokane. Actually New Hanover, NC might be an even better bet.

Here's a strong possibility that will likely go overlooked: Valley, ID


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 19, 2012, 01:00:35 AM
If you want to count them, I bet some Alaska House districts flip.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: Alcon on April 19, 2012, 01:14:34 AM
I'm kind of surprised people have such strong intuitions about Spokane.  It's seen very little minority growth (it's still 89% white) and is pretty damn average in terms of its voter base.  The growth areas are also quite Republican.  It was very close in 2008, but I don't see any other reasons for it to be a candidate.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: LastVoter on April 19, 2012, 01:44:58 AM
I'm kind of surprised people have such strong intuitions about Spokane.  It's seen very little minority growth (it's still 89% white) and is pretty damn average in terms of its voter base.  The growth areas are also quite Republican.  It was very close in 2008, but I don't see any other reasons for it to be a candidate.
Spokane has a lot of poors that won't like Mittens.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: CultureKing on April 19, 2012, 01:51:42 AM
I'm kind of surprised people have such strong intuitions about Spokane.  It's seen very little minority growth (it's still 89% white) and is pretty damn average in terms of its voter base.  The growth areas are also quite Republican.  It was very close in 2008, but I don't see any other reasons for it to be a candidate.
Spokane has a lot of poors that won't like Mittens.

Yep. Personally I think depressed voter turnout for blue-collar workers could alone tilt Spokane to Obama. Also the county has been swinging left and right for the last decade or so (especially in mayoral elections).


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 19, 2012, 02:04:46 AM
For counties to flip you have to look for areas that:

-Swung to Obama, but not massively as evidence of a clear overperformance which was likely caused by the weakness of McCain/Palin (the second half of the ticket really needs a mention when discussing this), which I think OC qualifies as (other obvious examples are Kent County, MI or those exurban Chicago counties even if you ignore the home state advantage)
-Aren't particularly racist or have a reason to hate Obama more than a generic Democrat.
-Did vote for McCain just because of general conservatism, likely on social issues, and aren't really likely to get excited about Romney for obvious reasons.

So like the Ohio cornbelt is a great example, Spokane qualifies for an urban area. Those counties in Colorado McCain all won with less than 50% that are undergoing demographic changes (either Hispanics or skiiers moving in) also are obvious picks. And here in Minnesota we have a few that look pretty easy (Goodhue, Renville, Lyon...)

But I think Valley, ID is being significantly overlooked. Maybe because yeah, it's Idaho, who cares, but this place has been clearly trending a la Blaine and Teton. And I don't think there's many Mormons in that area either. Another Idaho county to watch is Shoshone (an old mining area that's traditionally Democratic, doesn't have many Mormons, and isn't likely to be too fond of Romney.)


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on April 19, 2012, 02:08:16 AM
Looking at Idaho, could Ada flip? I imagine that urban growth would shift it to the Democrats there.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 19, 2012, 02:11:19 AM
Looking at Idaho, could Ada flip? I imagine that urban growth would shift it to the Democrats there.

I think Boise has too many Mormons and likely moderate Republicans who were turned off by Palin. The Bill Sali results in Ada are evidence that many normally loyal Republican voters there will flip if the ticket involves a total blithering idiot, though I guess the possibility of the Romney ticket having one can't be ruled out.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: TJ in Oregon on April 19, 2012, 09:39:24 AM
BRTD.... what counties in central Ohio or in the "cornbelt" are you speaking of? "Central Ohio" is the Columbus metropolitan area where Franklin County is safely Democratic and all of the exurban counties are safely Republican.

The part of Ohio that most resembles a "cornbelt" is the west-central area that voted 60+% for McCain in almost every county.

The only Ohio county outside of the SE I could see flipping toward Obama is Clark.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 19, 2012, 10:46:58 AM
I'm thinking of ones like Coshocton, Knox and Muskingum. A bit east of central Ohio I suppose.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: pbrower2a on April 19, 2012, 11:15:18 AM
I propose Allen Co., Indiana (Fort Wayne).


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on April 19, 2012, 11:17:40 AM
In Kentucky, I think it's almost a given that Franklin, Floyd, and Marion will flip.

If I went by what I see on the ground (or if Gingrich was the nominee), Campbell would be gone too, quite frankly. If that happens, a lot of other counties are flipping with it.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: TJ in Oregon on April 19, 2012, 12:07:08 PM
I'm thinking of ones like Coshocton, Knox and Muskingum. A bit east of central Ohio I suppose.

Coshocton and Muskingum are possibilities but would be considered Southeast Ohio by most people. No chance at all of Knox. John McCain won it by 20 points. Obama has a better  chance of winning Nebraska or Kansas.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: Badger on April 19, 2012, 06:15:08 PM
I'm thinking of ones like Coshocton, Knox and Muskingum. A bit east of central Ohio I suppose.

Coshocton and Muskingum are possibilities but would be considered Southeast Ohio by most people. No chance at all of Knox. John McCain won it by 20 points. Obama has a better  chance of winning Nebraska or Kansas.

Agree. I'd encourage people to look at the 08 Ohio trend map to see why Obama will have to at least match--and probably surpass--his 08 numbers here to switch an ultra close county like Harrison or Hocking. The culture in that swath of eastern and southeastern counties is similar to SW PA and Appalachia, respectively. Two areas Obama has always been weak in. Muskingum County maybe as I understand Zanesville is increasingly Dem leaning.

Seneca and Huron might be better bets, but again, he'll have to at least match 08 numbers statewide.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: LastVoter on April 19, 2012, 06:47:52 PM
Looking at Idaho, could Ada flip? I imagine that urban growth would shift it to the Democrats there.

I think Boise has too many Mormons and likely moderate Republicans who were turned off by Palin. The Bill Sali results in Ada are evidence that many normally loyal Republican voters there will flip if the ticket involves a total blithering idiot, though I guess the possibility of the Romney ticket having one can't be ruled out.
Yea a Mormon nominee would be strong in Boise, their turnout would be off the charts. 2016 would be a good bet though.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: TJ in Oregon on April 19, 2012, 07:10:35 PM
I'm thinking of ones like Coshocton, Knox and Muskingum. A bit east of central Ohio I suppose.

Coshocton and Muskingum are possibilities but would be considered Southeast Ohio by most people. No chance at all of Knox. John McCain won it by 20 points. Obama has a better  chance of winning Nebraska or Kansas.

Agree. I'd encourage people to look at the 08 Ohio trend map to see why Obama will have to at least match--and probably surpass--his 08 numbers here to switch an ultra close county like Harrison or Hocking. The culture in that swath of eastern and southeastern counties is similar to SW PA and Appalachia, respectively. Two areas Obama has always been weak in. Muskingum County maybe as I understand Zanesville is increasingly Dem leaning.

Seneca and Huron might be better bets, but again, he'll have to at least match 08 numbers statewide.

Seneca and Huron would be terrible bets. Obama vastly overperformed there in '08 and NW Ohio has swung harder in the Republican direction since than any other part of the state. I'd go with something in the SE or Clark or nothing at all.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: ajb on April 19, 2012, 07:12:24 PM
Mind you, the recent polls in Ohio have Obama ahead by 6-8. If that held true in the fall (and I concede that's something of an "if"), presumably some counties would have to swing his way.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: TJ in Oregon on April 19, 2012, 07:21:34 PM
Mind you, the recent polls in Ohio have Obama ahead by 6-8. If that held true in the fall (and I concede that's something of an "if"), presumably some counties would have to swing his way.

Obama won by 4.5 last time so if we say he wins by 6 this time, somehow magically by uniform swing, he would pick up Hocking and Pike. If he wins by 8, he would also get Huron, Seneca, Hocking, and Perry. But in a world where Obama wins by 8 he most likely either overperforms his '08 numbers in urban areas or finds a way to win the working class white Dems in the SE and doesn't swing anywhere close to evenly. It gets very hard for him to pick up counties because he already one most of the ones open to either party last time.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: Beet on April 19, 2012, 07:55:38 PM
Just some wild guesses
Duval, Seminole, Pasco, Hernando - Florida.
Maricopa - Arizona.
Frederick, Anne Arundel - Maryland.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: old timey villain on April 19, 2012, 08:14:31 PM
Gwinnett and Cobb, the suburban giants of ATL.

Here's why:

Gwinnett demographics
     -44% non hispanic white
     -24% African American
     -20% Hispanic
     -10% Asian

yes this is in mutha f****n Georgia

Cobb Demographics
     -56% non hispanic white
     -25% African American
     -12% hispanic
     -4.5% Asian

Cobb is whiter but about 30-35% of the white vote went for Obama in '08, which is big for GA


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on April 19, 2012, 08:16:06 PM
Gwinnett and Cobb, the suburban giants of ATL.

Here's why:

Gwinnett demographics
     -44% non hispanic white
     -24% African American
     -20% Hispanic
     -10% Asian

yes this is in mutha f****n Georgia

Cobb Demographics
     -56% non hispanic white
     -25% African American
     -12% hispanic
     -4.5% Asian

Cobb is whiter but about 30-35% of the white vote went for Obama in '08, which is big for GA

Diversity at it's finest.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: ajb on April 19, 2012, 08:47:25 PM
Mind you, the recent polls in Ohio have Obama ahead by 6-8. If that held true in the fall (and I concede that's something of an "if"), presumably some counties would have to swing his way.

Obama won by 4.5 last time so if we say he wins by 6 this time, somehow magically by uniform swing, he would pick up Hocking and Pike. If he wins by 8, he would also get Huron, Seneca, Hocking, and Perry. But in a world where Obama wins by 8 he most likely either overperforms his '08 numbers in urban areas or finds a way to win the working class white Dems in the SE and doesn't swing anywhere close to evenly. It gets very hard for him to pick up counties because he already one most of the ones open to either party last time.

It's true that on closer inspection Ohio had an astonishing number of McCain 55-Obama 45 counties (or thereabouts) last time. On uniform swing, and with a 6-8 point Obama lead, these would all become even closer, but would stick with the Republicans.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 19, 2012, 09:09:26 PM
I definitely got Knox confused with some other county, probably Perry. Hocking is another one worthy of note, though that is indisputably southeast Ohio.


Title: Re: Counties Obama can flip from red to blue
Post by: Donerail on April 19, 2012, 09:18:31 PM
Just some wild guesses
Duval, Seminole, Pasco, Hernando - Florida.
Maricopa - Arizona.
Frederick, Anne Arundel - Maryland.

I don't see any way Obama can pick up Duval. It may he the largest city in Florida, but it's Republican, very much so. The mayoral election was a fluke. Seminole's a massive Republican stronghold; maybe in 2020 or something demographics will make it competitive, but not now. Pasco/Hernando, however, are competitive, and Obama has a real shot, especially in Pasco.