Title: Which GOP pols, if picked as '12 VP nominee, would become the 2016 frontrunner? Post by: Mr. Morden on April 21, 2012, 12:39:42 AM Basically, think of this as 16 separate questions. If Portman is Romney's choice, then does he become frontrunner for the 2016 GOP nomination (should Obama be reelected)? If Rubio is Romney's choice, does he become the frontrunner, etc.?
Title: Re: Which GOP pols, if picked as '12 VP nominee, would become the 2016 frontrunner? Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 21, 2012, 05:02:37 AM It depends on how well they perform on the campaign trail. If they bomb then they will follow Sarah Palin's footsteps into obscurity.
Title: Re: Which GOP pols, if picked as '12 VP nominee, would become the 2016 frontrunner? Post by: minionofmidas on April 21, 2012, 07:17:34 AM None. Being the losing '12 VP nominee would weaken, rather than improve, the standing of each and every Republican already established as a potential presidential contender.
Title: Re: Which GOP pols, if picked as '12 VP nominee, would become the 2016 frontrunner? Post by: Averroës Nix on April 21, 2012, 11:21:08 AM None. Being the losing '12 VP nominee would weaken, rather than improve, the standing of each and every Republican already established as a potential presidential contender. If the VP nominee is someone who Republicans like anyway, I think they'll be pretty eager to blame Romney alone. McCain-Palin style. Title: Re: Which GOP pols, if picked as '12 VP nominee, would become the 2016 frontrunner? Post by: minionofmidas on April 21, 2012, 11:22:26 AM None. Being the losing '12 VP nominee would weaken, rather than improve, the standing of each and every Republican already established as a potential presidential contender. If the VP nominee is someone who Republicans like anyway, I think they'll be pretty eager to blame Romney alone. McCain-Palin style. (Yes, I know. Palin has herself and her family to blame. I don't think that's the full story here though.) Title: Re: Which GOP pols, if picked as '12 VP nominee, would become the 2016 frontrunner? Post by: Averroës Nix on April 21, 2012, 11:30:00 AM Palin was a loose cannon with no self-discipline, no prior experience with national politics, and marginal policy knowledge. And she still came out of the 2008 election beloved by most in her party.
I don't know if she'd have been a plausible nominee if she'd made a serious run, but at least a sizable minority of academics, journalists, and political actors would have considered her either the apparent frontrunner or co-frontrunner. It's hard for me not to believe that a more serious and experienced politician could pull it off. Title: Re: Which GOP pols, if picked as '12 VP nominee, would become the 2016 frontrunner? Post by: tpfkaw on April 21, 2012, 12:01:41 PM Historically speaking, none of the above. List of losing VP nominees:
2008 - Sarah Palin 2004 - John Edwards 2000 - Joe Lieberman 1996 - Jack Kemp 1992 - Dan Quayle 1988 - Lloyd Bentsen 1984 - Geraldine Ferraro 1980 - Walter Mondale - became frontrunner for '84, but had previously been elected VP under Carter 1976 - Bob Dole - became frontrunner 20 years later and won nomination 1972 - Sargent Shriver 1968 - Ed Muskie - became initial frontrunner but lost nomination to McGovern 1964 - Bill Miller 1960 - Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. 1956 - Estes Kefauver 1952 - John Sparkman 1948 - Earl Warren 1944 - John Bricker 1940 - Charles McNary 1936 - Frank Knox 1932 - Charles Curtis 1928 - Joseph Robinson 1924 - Charles Bryan 1920 - Franklin Roosevelt - became frontrunner 12 years later and won nomination/presidency 1916 - Charles Fairbanks 1912 - Hiram Johnson 1908 - John Kern 1904 - Henry Davis 1900 - Adlai Stevenson 1896 - Arthur Sewall 1892 - Whitelaw Reid 1888 - Allen Thurman 1884 - John Logan 1880 - William English 1876 - Thomas Hendricks 1872 - B. Gratz Brown 1868 - Francis Blair, Jr. 1864 - George Pendleton 1860 - Herschel Johnson 1856 - William Dayton 1852 - William Graham 1848 - William Butler 1844 - Theodore Frelinghuysen 1840 - Richard Johnson 1836 - Francis Granger 1832 - John Sergeant 1828 - Richard Rush 1824 - Nathaniel Macon 1820 - Richard Stockton 1816 - John Howard 1812 - Jared Ingersoll 1804/1808 - Rufus King 1800 - Charles Pinckney - became frontrunner and won nomination 1796 - Aaron Burr - tied Jefferson in 1800 election in electoral votes (pre-12th amendment) 1792 - George Clinton 1789 - John Jay Title: Re: Which GOP pols, if picked as '12 VP nominee, would become the 2016 frontrunner? Post by: Vosem on April 21, 2012, 07:25:58 PM As food justice pointed out, Charles Pinckney was the last to pull it off; he was the losing VP candidate in 1800 and then the losing presidential candidate in 1804. However, for most of its history the VP slot was irrelevant, but it's been steadily gaining power since the 1950s (ironic, as presidential deaths have become less common than they used to be). Could a competent pol pull it off in the modern day? Yeah, it seems pretty likely. I don't think 2012/2016 are the cycles for that, though.
Title: Re: Which GOP pols, if picked as '12 VP nominee, would become the 2016 frontrunner? Post by: Mr. Morden on April 21, 2012, 07:51:22 PM It doesn't make sense to compare to election cycles pre-McGovern/Fraser reforms of the 1970s, since the nomination process was completely different back then. Since then, the GOP has almost always had a strong frontrunner going into the next presidential nomination cycle, up until 2008. In 2008 and 2012, the field was fairly splintered, with no overwhelming frontrunner in the mold of, say GW Bush in 2000.
I see 2016 as being another cycle in which there is no strong frontrunner on the GOP side, so it wouldn't necessarily take much to become the frontrunner. The boost of publicity associated with becoming Romney's running mate might be enough to do it, assuming the candidate in question does a decent job on the campaign trail. Barring Romney's running mate becoming the frontrunner, I see Christie as being the most likely frontrunner for the 2016 GOP nomination (again, assuming that Obama wins reelection), so in my mind, this poll is equivalent to asking "Which of the potential Romney running mates could use their status as his running mate to eclipse Christie for 2016?" (Please, no fat jokes about "eclipsing Christie". ;) ) |