Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Election What-ifs? => Topic started by: retromike22 on April 21, 2012, 12:47:42 AM



Title: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on April 21, 2012, 12:47:42 AM
This is a story about how the death of a single political strategist will alter the 1988 Presidential election and beyond. The cast of characters will be familiar, but they will have different roles. Several of the politicians of today are in power simply because they got lucky, and will not have such luck in this timeline. Others, who in real life were unlucky, will find themselves as Presidents, Vice-Presidents, and leaders in Congress. Although some may find this timeline ridiculous, we must remember that real life politics is often just as or even more ridiculous.


March 28, 1988: Lee Atwater Dies after a Short Battle with Cancer.
()
On March 28, 1988, the political strategist Lee Atwater died after a short battle with a rare and aggressive form of brain cancer. It was only a year earlier that Atwater collapsed at a public library and was first diagnosed. Although he took the diagnosis bravely, he was publicly disappointed that he was not able to participate in the 1988 Presidential election. Friends remember him as a devoted political consultant as well as a talented musician. Others were critical of his extremely negative form of campaigning and were suspicious or even disgusted by it. It is unknown whether his strategies would help current Vice President George H.W. Bush in his campaigning for the Presidency. It is only March, and the Vice President already trails presumptive nominee Governor Michael Dukakis by 10 points in the latest national poll….


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on April 21, 2012, 07:45:59 AM
Cool stuff.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on April 21, 2012, 09:41:04 AM
Indeed. I cannot wait to see how this plays out :)


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: Jerseyrules on April 21, 2012, 02:51:35 PM
Sorry, but how does this affect the election?

Also, Geraldine Ferraro / John Glenn 1988 ftw.  ;)


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on April 21, 2012, 06:20:16 PM
March 28, 1988. Representative Gephardt and Senator Dole quit race.
()
Despite each winning the Iowa caucuses, both Representative Gephardt and Senator Dole have ended their campaigns for the White House. Senator Dole, although supportive of Reagan, has private doubts that Vice President Bush can win the election in November.

April 24, 1988: Gore quits race.
()
Senator Al Gore has quit his campaign for the White House, bowing to reality that Governor Dukakis will likely be the nominee of the Democratic Party. Says Gore: "There will be other days for me and for the causes that matter to us."

May 3, 1988: White House Acknowledges that First Lady Nancy Reagan Relied on Astrologers.
()
For the first time, the White House has acknowledged that the First Lady, Nancy Reagan, used the advice of astrologers to help influence her husband's schedule. This is yet another complication in Bush's campaign to focus on Michael Dukakis instead of the negative stories about the Reagan administration. It seems that each time the Bush campaign seeks to raise questions about the capabilities and positions of Governor Dukakis, some distracting event comes from the White House. The Bush campaign finds themselves playing defense more than they would prefer, and the members of the campaign disagree on how best to challenge Dukakis.

June 7, 1988 Dukakis clinches the nomination.
()
Governor Michael Dukakis has officially won the Democratic nomination for President, by defeating the Rev. Jesse Jackson in the New Jersey, California, Montana and New Mexico primaries. Current national polls have Dukakis with a good lead, 52-44. Michael Dukakis privately is considering Dick Gephardt and Senator Gore, along with Senator Lloyd Bentsen, to be his running mate.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on April 23, 2012, 03:05:41 AM
June 12, 1988: Bush Campaign at odds over Willie Horton issue.
Several members of the campaign are aware of the Willie Horton issue, but others are suspicious of this idea as they believe it relies too much on racial fears. Eventually they dismiss it, as they believe that Dukakis’ positions are liberal enough to use. These discussions, however, is news on its own, and suddenly the name of Willie Horton is introduced to the country.
(The Point of Divergence: With no Lee Atwater alive to work on the Bush campaign, there was less negative research, and so the Willie Horton controversy was not introduced by the Bush campaign, but rather by the media. This is significant because since the media is highlighting the matter now, as opposed to the Bush campaign emphasizing it later in the year, Dukakis is worried enough to bring back John Sasso now, when in reality he did not bring him until Labor Day. In real life, the Bush campaign used Willie Horton so much that by Labor Day, Dukakis was behind Bush by double digits. With John Sasso back, the Dukakis campaign is better prepared and with no Lee Atwater, the Bush campaign does not use the negative ads that would air that October.)

June 15, 1988: Dukakis Campaign brings Back John Sasso.
After being forced to resign from the Dukakis campaign after revealing that Senator Biden plagiarized a speech, John Sasso has returned to become the Dukakis campaign manager. He replaces Susan Estrich, who although a Harvard Law Professor, has had no previous experience in managing a campaign. Sasso’s return is believed to be the result of the past few days of news of Willie Norton.

June 18, 1988: Dukakis seeks to link Bush to Iran-Contra Scandal
After days of the furlough controversy in the news, Dukakis decides to confront the matter head-on in an interview. Michael Dukakis: “The furlough program was originally created by my predecessor, Governor Francis Sargent, who happened to be a Republican. Now what happened with Willie Horton was a mistake, no question about it, but the furloughs are 99 percent effective. The Bush campaign is saying that this one mistake is entirely my fault, and I should be blamed for continuing a Republican-created program. Let’s focus on what I as Governor was directly involved with, and what Vice President Bush was directly involved with. The truth is that Vice President Bush was more responsible for Iran-Contra that I was for Willie Horton.”

June 30, 1988: Dukakis and Bush duel over Willie Horton and Iran-Contra
The two presidential campaigns appear to have focused mainly on who was more responsible for each respective controversial issue, the furloughs of Massachusetts or the Iran-Contra scandal. Voters are tired of hearing of both, and wish to focus back on the issues. After a few days of debating, the Bush campaign decides to stop overtly mentioning the Willie Horton controversy. It has prevented Dukakis from gaining support, but it has lowered support of Bush as a result. Polls have Dukakis stable, but Bush has dropped 4 points: 52-40. The new goal of the Bush campaign: Portray Dukakis as a Massachusetts liberal who is too far-left for the country.

July 10, 1988 Gore, Bentsen, Gephardt believed to be on Dukakis’ List
At Dukakis’ headquarters:
Sasso: “We’re down to the last three, Bentsen, Gore, and Gephardt. Bentsen will give you gravitas and help in the South. Gore will help with the south and the youth. Gephardt helps with the youth, the unions and the Midwest.”
Dukakis: “Out of those three, Bentsen is most experienced. It’s harder to see the other two matching up.”
Sasso: “Yea but the other two are younger and new, that’ll excite more people”
Another campaign worker adds in: “But Bentsen helps you look more Presidential.”
Sasso: “Wait a minute! Why should Bentsen help him with appearing presidential? He’s supposed to already be presidential! No offense sir, but one of the criticisms we have, is your personality. Governor, we’re winning, we could use more excitement.”
Dukakis: “You’re right. I don’t need an old Senator to help me; I can stand on my own. Well, it looks like it’s either Gore or Gephardt.”
Sasso: “Well which one?”
Dukakis: “I’m not sure, I’ll have to think about it some more”

The others in the room sigh quietly as Dukakis leaves the room. They privately are all annoyed by the way Dukakis tends to overanalyze each question. They don’t have an overall preference between Gore and Gephardt, both of their pros and cons appear to be similar.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: sentinel on April 23, 2012, 09:01:16 AM
I like where this is going.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: Jerseyrules on April 23, 2012, 04:36:55 PM


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on April 23, 2012, 07:48:11 PM
July 12, 1988: Dukakis Chooses Dick Gephardt as His Running Mate!
()
Governor Dukakis has selected Representative Dick Gephardt of Missouri to be his running mate. Representative Gephardt is forty-seven years old and has been a member of Congress since 1977. He has had a history of being strongly pro-life, but recently told the National Right to Life Committee; "I now do not support any Constitutional amendment pertaining to the legality of abortion." Although there is some grumbling by pro-choice groups, there simultaneously appears to be more support of Dukakis among pro-life Reagan Democrats. In addition, the Dukakis campaign hopes that Gephardt's presence on the ticket can help swing the Midwest, especially Missouri and Illinois.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on April 25, 2012, 11:43:16 PM
July 21, 1988: Dukakis Accepts Nomination
()
Governor Michael Dukakis has accepted the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party.
He is introduced by Bill Clinton, who speaks for far too long and is almost booed of the stage. It is the only flaw in the evening. Dukakis speech is uplifting, hopeful, and in a change in tone, dramatic.

An excerpt of his nomination speech:

“Yes, my friends, it's a time for wonderful new beginnings.
A little baby.
A new Administration.
A new era of greatness for America.
And when we leave here tonight, we will leave to build that future together!”

After he finishes, he welcomes the cheers, heads backstage and walks to his campaign manager. Dukakis is filled with energy.

Dukakis: “How was it?!”
Sasso: “Perfect, Governor, you came out looking clear and strong.”
Dukakis: “Ah, I felt it. Probably because of my great introduction.”
Sasso: “Hahaha!”
Dukakis: “Who was that weirdo?!”
Sasso: “Bill Clinton, the Governor of Arkansas. He won’t amount to a thing, trust me.”

Hotel Room Revelations.
()
Returning back to his hotel room, Bill Clinton contemplates his future. He changed his mind about running this year and has regretted it for months. He knows his speech bombed, and Dukakis is likely to win the presidency. If he is elected, Dukakis is very unlikely to decline to run for reelection in 1992.  Bill Clinton realizes that it will be 1996 before he can ever run for President. But hey, he’s only forty-one. He’s got an election up in 1990, and should he win and begin serving that term in 1991, he would serve until 1995. That’s a lot of time to make change in Arkansas, he thinks. He discusses the situation with his wife, Hillary and makes a decision. He’ll run for reelection in 1990, but that will be his last term. Once he’s out of office in 1995, he’ll have a head start on any other Democratic candidate. In 1996, he could be the “Arkansas miracle.”

()
In his own hotel room, Senator Al Gore has reached the same conclusion, that it will be 1996 before he can try again. He’ll be older than, he knows he was too young now. “But will Gephardt run?” he wonders? It’ll be tough to beat a Vice-President but he realizes that absent another Jesse Jackson run, he’ll be the only candidate from the south.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on April 25, 2012, 11:46:43 PM
August 16, 1988: George Bush Chooses Dan Quayle!
()
George H.W. Bush has selected Indiana Senator Dan Quayle to be his running mate.

August 18, 1988: Bush Accepts Nomination.
()
George H.W. Bush has accepted the presidential nomination of the Republican Party.

September 14, 1988: A Photo-Op Rejected.
A member of Dukakis’ campaign suggests that the Governor should stage a photo op with him in a tank, but it is rejected by Sasso since Dukakis has a lead in the polls and does not want to do anything drastic. In addition, he does not want to mock a World War II veteran. “Just focus on Bush, don’t change yourself” Sasso advises.

October 1, 1988: Bush’s Situation.
George Bush knows he’s in trouble and his campaign is running out of ideas. The debates were mostly a draw, and that’s not what he needs. Current polls have Dukakis up 49-42. Bush’s campaign manager suggests bringing up Willie Horton again, but the others disagree. It will sound so desperate, so racial, and so negative that it will only backfire. It is beneath them.

November 7th 1988: The Discovery of Sally Atwater.
The widow of Lee Atwater, Sally, has almost finished sorting through her late husband’s papers. She comes upon a paper listing his notes on the 1988 election. In it, her husband has described his approach for the campaign:

“1. Portray Dukakis as a far-left Democrat out of touch with America.
2. He supported furloughs from prison for convicts. Mention Willie Horton!
3. Dukakis has no foreign policy or national security experience, emphasize this.
Most important: Create and distribute negative television commercials that highlight these faults.”

Sally Atwater reads this paper and compares it with what the almost inept Bush campaign has accomplished. They have portrayed Dukakis as far-left but people don’t seem to care. Willie Horton backfired. Dukakis lack of foreign policy experience has been ignored because of his service as Governor. The “Massachusetts Miracle” was too strong to overcome. Sally remembered the repeating commercial boasting that the National Governors Association voted Dukakis the most effective governor in 1986. She wishes her husband had just one more year to help the Bush campaign. But she is tired of feeling sad, so she dismisses the dream.

Back at Bush campaign headquarters, the Vice President and Senator Quayle are upbeat, but after they leave, the campaign workers are subdued, and hope for a miracle tomorrow…


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on April 25, 2012, 11:53:01 PM
November 8, 1988: Michael Dukakis Elected President!
()
Governor Michael Dukakis has been elected as the 41st President of the United States, defeating Vice-President George H.W. Bush, 53% to 47%. In a race that was difficult from the beginning, George Bush was unable to stop the Dukakis message of change after eight years of Ronald Reagan. Dick Gephardt will take office as the nation’s Vice-President, at only forty-seven years old. He is a young leader of the Democratic Party, representing the hopes of the Midwest and the labor movement.

The Last section of President-Elect Michael Dukakis’ speech:

“And one of the things that I'm proudest of in this campaign is the thousands and thousands of young people who are involved. I don't want you to be discouraged; I want you to be encouraged by what you've done in this campaign. I hope many of you will go into politics and public service. It is a noble profession, a noble profession.

I remember what my dad used to say to me over and over again. Much has been given to you, and much is expected of you. Much has been given to the young people of this country. The opportunity to live and grow up in the greatest nation on the face of this earth. And you have a responsibility to give something back.

Our hearts are full, we love you all, we love this country, and we're going to continue to fight with you and the American people so that every citizen of this country can be a full shareholder in the American dream.

Thank you all very much.”

The Electoral Map:

(
)



Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on April 28, 2012, 12:25:48 PM
November 8, 1988 Democrats gain in Senate and House.
Adding to the Democratic Party’s Presidential victory, the Democrats gained 4 seats in the Senate and 18 in the House of Representatives. Previously, the Democrats has 54 in the Senate, they will now have 58. In the House, they previously had 258 and the Republicans 177, now the Democrats will have 278 and the Republicans 157.

Democrats + 4
(
)


Seat Changes in the Senate:
Connecticut: Republican Lowell P. Weicker, Jr. lost re-election 47.0% to Democrat Joe Lieberman 51.7%.

Mississippi: The seat held by retiring Democrat John C. Stennis was gained by Republican Trent Lott 53.1%, defeating Democrat Wayne Dowdy 46.9%.

Nebraska: Republican David Karnes lost re-election 41.7% to Democrat Bob Kerrey 56.7%.

Nevada: Republican Chic Hecht lost re-election 47.1% to Democrat Richard Bryan 51.3%.

Virginia: The seat held by retiring Republican Paul S. Trible, Jr.  was gained by Democrat Chuck Robb 71.2%, defeating Republican Maurice A. Dawkins 28.8%.

In Real life:
In Florida Republican Connie Mack defeated Buddy MacKay and captured a Democratic seat.
In Montana, Democrat John Melcher lost re-election to Republican Conrad Burns.
In Washington, Republican Slade Gordon kept the seat of a retiring Republican and it was kept, as opposed to Democrat Mike Lowry gaining it.

But because of Dukakis’ win, I have reversed these three outcomes, and so:
In Florida: Buddy McKay, and not Connie Mack becomes Florida’s next Senator
In Montana: John Melcher keeps his seat against Conrad Burns.
In Washington Mike Lowry defeats Slade Gordon.

As a result, instead of the Democrats gaining 1 seat in the Senate, they gain 4 seats. And instead of only gaining 2 seats in the House, they gain 18 seats.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: old timey villain on April 28, 2012, 08:45:28 PM
I'm actually writing a research paper about the 1988 campaign. Lee Atwater really was the man responsible for turning a 17 point loss in the polls into an 8 point win on election day. Without Atwater, I don't think the Bush campaign would have had the guts to attack the way Atwater did.

I would also give more to Dukakis on election day. In a 6 point win, I also would have given him Delaware, New Jersey, Montana, and South Dakota, giving him 331 in the electoral college.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: California8429 on April 28, 2012, 09:45:01 PM
You should do one as if he didn't have cancer. He probably could have defeated Clinton, he was preparing for him to be the nominee right after the '88 election.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on April 28, 2012, 09:57:20 PM
You should do one as if he didn't have cancer. He probably could have defeated Clinton, he was preparing for him to be the nominee right after the '88 election.

That does sound like a good idea... Bush defeats Clinton in 92. I should do that one after I finish this.

This is my first timeline and I'm still figuring out my style, so it may change later on. I have it drafted up until 2000 so far.

Sneak peeks: The 1996 Democratic Primary will be very interesting, there will be a formation of a third major party in the 90s, and there will be a preemptive war just like Iraq, except it won't be in Iraq, and it will take place in the 90s.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: RedPrometheus on April 29, 2012, 07:52:49 AM
Great timeline :)

Looking forward to the next update!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on April 29, 2012, 08:41:19 PM
December 10th, 1988: President Elect Dukakis Announces Cabinet Choices.
A few figures from the Carter Administration, most notably former Vice President Walter Mondale, combined with a diverse group of individuals compose the President-Elect's Cabinet.

Secretary of State: Walter F. Mondale, the former Vice President of the United States.
Secretary of Treasury: E. Gerald Corrigan, the current president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank
Secretary of Defense: William Perry, Undersecretary of Defense for research and engineering during the Carter Administration
Attorney General: Susan Estrich, Harvard law professor, the first woman in history to head the Justice Department
Secretary of the Interior: Bruce Babbitt, former Governor of Arizona.
Secretary of Agriculture: James Allen "Jim" Hightower, Agriculture Commissioner of Texas
Secretary of Commerce: William M. Daley, Vice Chairman of the Amalgamated Bank of Chicago
Secretary of Labor: Eleanor Holmes Norton, Georgetown University law professor who was commissioner of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission in the Carter Administration.
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Deborah Prothrow-Stith, Massachusetts health commissioner
Secretary of Education: Mary Hatwood Futrell, president of the National Education Assn
Secretary of Housing and
Urban Development:
Henry Cisneros, former Mayor of San Antonio, Texas.
Secretary of Transportation: Federico Peña, the Mayor of Denver.
Secretary of Energy: Charles Duncan, Jr., former Secretary of Energy during the Carter Administration.
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Jesse Brown, Deputy National Service Director of the Disabled American Veterans.

In addition, President-Elect has fulfilled a campaign promise by raising the Environmental Protection Agency to Cabinet status

Secretary of Environmental Protection: Douglas M. Costle, former EPA administrator during the Carter Administration.

I used this article http://articles.latimes.com/1988-07-21/news/mn-9216_1_cabinet-officers (http://articles.latimes.com/1988-07-21/news/mn-9216_1_cabinet-officers) for most choices, moved up some Clinton choices, and brought back a few old Carter choices.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on May 04, 2012, 12:53:31 AM
January 3, 1989: The 101st Congress Begins
The 101st Congress has begun, with Democrats holding both houses of Congress. These are the major leadership positions:

The Senate:

Senate Majority Leader: George Mitchell
Senate Majority Whip: Alan Cranston

Senate Minority Leader: Bob Dole
Senate Minority Whip: Alan Simpson



The House:

Speaker: Jim Wright

Majority Leader: Tom Foley
Majority Whip: Tony Coelho

Minority Leader: Robert Michel
Minority Whip: Dick Cheney


January 20, 1989: President Michael Dukakis Inaugurated
Michael Dukakis has taken office as the 41st President of the United States. He is the first Greek-American to hold this office, and the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter. With a Democratic-controlled Congress, it is a new opportunity for Democratic Party.

Jan 27, 1989: President Dukakis Disagrees with Congress’ Pay Raise.

Today President Dukakis held an informal White House news conference in which he opposed a widely criticized pay raise for Congress scheduled to go into effect the following month. Polls show that the overwhelming majority of the public oppose the pay raise.

Feb 7, 1989: Congress kills the Pay Raise Increase.
Bowing to public outrage, both US houses of Congress have voted to kill their scheduled 51 percent pay increase. Privately, some Democratic members of Congress are disappointed that the President stood in opposition to them so quickly in his term.

Apr 13, 1989: Speaker Wright Defends Himself
US House Speaker Jim Wright delivered an emotional defense of his conduct against ethics charges, declaring he would "fight to the last ounce of conviction and energy" he possessed. This is quickly turning into a political scandal, and Republicans in Congress are eagerly awaiting the report from the US House Ethics Committee. President Dukakis is frustrated by this distraction and hopes it ends soon so Congress can enact his agenda.

Apr 17, 1989: Report Finds Speaker Wright Violated House Rules.
The US House Ethics Committee released its report accusing Speaker Jim Wright of violating House rules on the acceptance of gifts and outside income -- charges denied by the Texas Democrat. The report implies that he had used bulk purchases of his book, Reflections of a Public Man, to earn speaking fees in excess of the allowed maximum, and that his wife, Betty, was given a job and perks to avoid the limit on gifts. Minority Leader Robert Michel and Minority Whip Dick Cheney have called for Wright to resign. There is a refusal on the Democrats’ side to join in denying the accusations.

May 11, 1989: President Dukakis Rules Out Military Option in Panama
President Dukakis has stated that he will not use military force in Panama. “It is not the interest of the United States to use military action in Panama. As we have seen in Vietnam, the United States should avoid military action unless is it absolutely necessary. I am sending Secretary of State Walter Mondale to Panama to meet with Noriega to discuss the situation.” In Panama, the government of Gen. Manuel Antonio Noriega announced it had nullified the country's elections, which independent observers said the opposition had won by a 3-1 margin.

May 12, 1989: Democrats and Republicans Split on President’s Panama Decision.
The Democrats and Republicans each are split on President Dukakis’ refusal to use military action in Panama. With the Democrats, many anti-war liberals have applauded the President’s decision, while some southern conservative Democrats are disappointed. In the Republican Party, there is also a split, with many reluctant to focus on a foreign issue when the Speaker Wright scandal is lowering the public’s support of Democrats. Others, mainly of the neoconservatives are outraged. One of the strongest opinions was that of Minority Leader Dick Cheney, who has stated that “when Americans abroad are in danger, and democracy is at threat, the United States must act in any way possible.”

May 31, 1989: Speaker Wright Resigns.
Faced with an increasing loss of effectiveness, Wright tendered his resignation, the resignation to become effective on the selection of a successor. He is the first Speaker to resign because of a scandal.

June 6, 1989: Democrats Select Thomas Foley as Speaker.
In Washington, DC, the Democratic Caucus brought Wright's speakership to an end by selecting his replacement, Thomas Foley of Washington, to be elected the 49th speaker of the House of Representatives. There is also heavy speculation that Majority Whip Tony Coelho will resign following press reports that he had received a loan from a savings and loan executive to purchase junk bonds.

June 14, 1989: Democrats Choose William Gray as Minority Leader.
Following a vacancy in the Majority Leader’s position, and the likely resignation of Majority Whip Tony Coelho, the US House Democrats have chosen William Gray to be majority leader, the highest leadership position in Congress held by an African American and Steny Hoyer to be majority whip.

July 1, 1989: Democrats Suffer in New Polls.
Following the ethics charges and resignation of their Speaker, combined with the resignation of their Majority Whip, the Democratic Party has sharply decreased in polls as a result. The Generic Congressional Vote Poll shows 50% Republican and 43% Democrat.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on May 04, 2012, 04:03:39 PM
Pretty good so far!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on May 04, 2012, 04:57:02 PM
This is great! Does the Dukakis administration have any major domestic policy pushes ahead?


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on May 04, 2012, 05:55:59 PM
This is great! Does the Dukakis administration have any major domestic policy pushes ahead?

Curses I completely forgot about that! Well let's assume that any major legislation was delayed until the Speaker Wright scandal had ended. I'm drafting it right now, it looks very good for the working class and labor unions, very bad for neoconservatives on defense policy, and too socially liberal for 1989.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: Indy Prez on May 05, 2012, 10:39:12 AM
I take it you've read Richard Ben Cramer's 'What it Takes: The Way to the White House'. Good, isn't it?


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: Jerseyrules on May 07, 2012, 07:50:10 PM
I take it you've read Richard Ben Cramer's 'What it Takes: The Way to the White House'. Good, isn't it?

I just picked it up.  Yes ;)


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on May 08, 2012, 10:15:55 PM
I take it you've read Richard Ben Cramer's 'What it Takes: The Way to the White House'. Good, isn't it?

I have yet to read it but it does look interesting.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on May 08, 2012, 10:18:26 PM
July 9, 1989: The Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act of 1989
This is a United States federal law enacted in the wake of the savings and loan crisis. Growth is still slow and expected to take months if not years.

July 16th, 1989: Ban on Capital Punishment Signed into Law
President Dukakis has signed into law banning capital punishment in the United States. The reaction on the right is disappointment but surprisingly not as angry as some expected.

July 25th, 1989: Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act Signed Into Law
President Dukakis has signed into law the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act, which institutes federal background checks on firearm purchases on the United States. The act is named after James Brady, who was shot by John Hinckley, Jr. during an attempted assassination of President Ronald Reagan on March 30, 1981. The NRA is strongly opposed to this law, along with many Republicans.

August 3, 1989: National Defense Reorganization Act Signed Into Law
After a close vote, President Dukakis has signed the National Defense Reorganization Act Signed into law. This law is very controversial among neoconservatives, as the law reduces defense spending by eliminating or reducing many defense programs. Among those affected: The Midgetman Missile, the Trident Submarine, the testing of and deployment of anti-satellite weapons and the development of new aircraft carriers. Minority Leader Cheney is outraged, and denounces the President on the House floor as allowing the Soviets to gain an advantage. “For the first time, the President has decided that competition with the Soviet Union is not important, and our security is not essential to our survival.

August 10, 1989: Dukakis Administration Calls South Africa a Terrorist State

The Dukakis Administration has officially labeled the country of South Africa a terrorist state, and has released a statement calling for the end of racism and beginning open elections.

August 14, 1989. Portions of Reagan Tax Cuts Reversed.
Several of the Reagan Tax Cuts are no more. In a new law, the changes in taxes that the Reagan tax cuts enacted have been reversed. The top rate has returned to 70% from 50%, the 10% exclusion on income for two-earner married couples has been removed, among others. Polls on the reversal: 55% in favor 42% in opposed. President Dukakis refuses to rule out new federal taxes in the rest of his Presidency.

September 5, 1989 National Minimum Wage Act Signed Into Law

President Dukakis signed into a law an increase of the minimum wage from $3.35 to 5.00. This bill is highly popular with the public and appears to be one of the few examples of legislation that is uncontroversial.

Sep 25, 1989 President Dukakis at UN Makes Offer to Reduce Nuclear Weapons.
President Dukakis, addressing the UN General Assembly, offers to slash American stocks of chemical weapons by more than 80%, provided the Soviets did the same. In real life, President Bush did this.

Oct 11, 1989 President Dukakis Signs Bill That Restores Medicaid for Select Abortions
President Dukakis has signed an appropriations bill that contains an amendment that will restore Medicaid for abortions in cases of rape or incest. There is outrage on Christian Right, realizing that a portion of Medicaid will now be used to fund some types of abortions.
In real life, President Bush vetoed this bill.

November 6, 1989. First Lady Hospitalized
Kitty Dukakis, wife of Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, was hospitalized after ingesting rubbing alcohol.

November 7, 1989: Democrats keep Governor’s seats in VA and NJ
Democrat L. Douglas Wilder won the governor's race in Virginia, becoming the first elected black governor in US history. In addition, Democrat James Florio has been elected Governor of New Jersey.

November 9, 1989 Berlin Wall Breaks
The Berlin Wall is broke open. Communist East Germany throws open its borders, allowing citizens to travel freely to the West.

November 17, 1989 Senate Investigation Begins.
The Senate Ethics Committee investigation began of the Keating Five, Alan Cranston (D-CA), Dennis DeConcini (D-AZ), John Glenn (D-OH), John McCain (R-AZ), and Donald W. Riegle, Jr. (D-MI), who were accused of improperly intervening in 1987 on behalf of Charles H. Keating, Jr., chairman of the Lincoln Savings and Loan Association. Since 4 out of the 5 are Democrats, this only decreases the approval rating of the Democratic Party.

November 22, 1989 Republicans Surge in Approval But Dukakis Holds.
Average Congressional Vote: 55% Republican, 38% Democrat. Approval of Dukakis is at 52%, Disapproval 43%. Dukakis is very polarizing with high approval with liberals and low approval with conservatives.

December 31, 1989. The State of Politics at the end of 1989.
The economy is still stagnant as a result of the Savings and Loan crisis. The Keating Senate Investigation, combined with the resignation of Speaker Wright, has absolutely eroded support for the Democrats in Congress. The Keating Senate Investigation seems to create the message: “Corrupt Democrats in Congress are causing the Poor Economy.” The Republicans are energized due to anger over the defense cuts and Medicaid support for select abortions. It is almost certain that they will gain many seats in the 1990 midterm election. However, due to the high number of seats that the Democrats currently occupy, it is also unlikely that either the Senate or House will be gained by the Republicans. President Dukakis approval is 52% and his disapproval 41%. His highest approval is on domestic economic policy, with support for increasing the minimum wage and higher taxes on the wealthy. On social issues, the President is highly polarizing, with liberals strong in favor, and conservatives strongly opposed. On foreign policy, it is a mixed view. Although President Dukakis pledges support for democracy, he refused to intervene in Panama and determined to use military action as a last resort. His reduction in the defense budget is likely to create a surplus in the next year, but many conservatives and including many moderates are asking at what cost? With tumultuous events in Eastern Europe and China, it appears the President’s and Secretary of State’s strategy is to avoid involvement in other situations that are ultimately beneficial to the United States. Still, to many Americans, and indeed many other countries, the President’s inactions appear too passive. With the generic congressional vote at 56 Republicans, 37 Democrats, President Dukakis has two choices. He can attempt to appear above the fray of Congress and increase his own approval, or he can work with Congress to enact popular legislation to improve their popularity. It is clear that their two fortunes are linked. As soon as Congress reconvenes in the new year, the Democrats will begin work on their newest major legislation, a universal health insurance plan…


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: NHI on May 08, 2012, 10:29:38 PM
Keep it up!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on May 10, 2012, 01:12:58 AM
February 13th, 1990 Universal Health Insurance Plan Signed into Law
A Universal Health Insurance Plan has been signed into law, which ensures that all Americans will now have health insurance. This bill requires most employers to provide basic health care plans to their workers, and there is an exception for small businesses. Although many conservatives are calling this plan “socialized medicine,” it is very similar to a 1971 proposal by President Richard Nixon. Polls on the Dukakis Health Care Plan: 54% Approve, 40% Disapprove.

“The Dukakis proposal is similar to a Massachusetts law, now being phased in, which mandates a minimum dollar amount of employer-provided benefits in 1992.”

“Dukakis presents prenatal care for the poor as a good economic decision that would minimize the problems of babies who require very expensive treatment. Dukakis` prenatal care plan will attempt to combine the liberal virtue of helping the poor, the conservative virtue of saving money and the image of being ‘pro-family.’”

“The $100 million program will also provide physician and hospital care to underinsured and uninsured pregnant women. President Dukakis claims it would pay for itself within a year.

These quotes were taken from an article about Dukakis’s health care plan in 1988, but then slightly altered to show the plan in this timeline.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1988-09-23/news/8802010593_1_prenatal-care-health-care-record-on-health-issues (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1988-09-23/news/8802010593_1_prenatal-care-health-care-record-on-health-issues)

March 3, 1990: Health Care Law Fails to Improve Democrats
Despite the passage of a health care law that provides health insurance to almost all Americans, polls show that the Democrats have not yet recovered from the Speaker Wright scandal and the resignation of Majority Whip Tony Coelho. Generic Congressional Vote: 52% Republican, 40% Democrat.

April 26, 1990: Americans with Disabilities Act Signed into Law.
The American with Disabilities Act has been signed into law. The ADA is a wide-ranging civil rights law that prohibits, under certain circumstances, discrimination based on disability.

June 4, 1990: Infrastructure Act of 1990 Signed into Law
The Infrastructure Act of 1990 has been signed into law. This law will increase funding for roads, highways, and public transportation.

June 20, 1990: The Education Act of 1990 Signed into Law
The Education Act of 1990 has been signed into law. This law increases funding for schools nationwide, but more importantly, will provide many forms of financial assistance to almost all college students.

July 23rd, 1990. CIA Reports Iraq Troops On Kuwait Border.
The CIA has reported that Iraq had moved 30,000 troops to the Iraq-Kuwait border, and the U.S. naval fleet in the Persian Gulf is placed on alert.

July 25, 1990 Secretary of State Mondale Arrives in Iraq.
President Dukakis does not want another situation that calls for the United States to get involved, like Panama, and so has sent Secretary of State Walter Mondale to meet with Saddam Hussein.

One of the main rationales for Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait was that Kuwait was slant drilling (non-vertically drilling) into the Rumaila Oil Field, which is within Iraqi borders.

There was an Iraqi demand for $10 billion to cover the lost revenues from Rumaila Oil Field; the Kuwaiti's bullish response was to offer $9 billion, so as not to give Saddam everything he wanted.


July 29, 1990 Saddam Hussein takes Offer, Mondale Applauded for Diplomacy.
Secretary of State Mondale has successfully convinced Hussein to take the offer of $9 billion from Kuwait. There will be no war in the Persian Gulf.

In real life, Saddam Hussein met with Ambassador April Glaspie and possibly misunderstood her:
A version of the transcript (the one published in The New York Times on 23 September 1990) has Glaspie saying:
“But we have no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts, like your border disagreement with Kuwait. I was in the American Embassy in Kuwait during the late 1960s. The instruction we had during this period was that we should express no opinion on this issue and that the issue is not associated with America. James Baker has directed our official spokesmen to emphasize this instruction. We hope you can solve this problem using any suitable methods via Klibi (Chedli Klibi, Secretary General of the Arab League) or via President Mubarak. All that we hope is that these issues are solved quickly.”

When these purported transcripts were made public, Glaspie was accused of having given tacit approval for the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, which took place on August 2, 1990. It was argued that Glaspie's statements that "We have no opinion on your Arab-Arab conflicts" and that "the Kuwait issue is not associated with America" were interpreted by Saddam as giving free rein to handle his disputes with Kuwait as he saw fit. It was also argued that Saddam would not have invaded Kuwait had he been given an explicit warning that such an invasion would be met with force by the United States.


August 18, 1990: Oil Pollution Act Signed into Law.
The Oil Pollution Act, written in response to the Exxon Valdez oil spill, will mitigate and prevent civil liability from the future oil spills off the coast of the United States. The law stated that companies must have a "plan to prevent spills that may occur" and have a "detailed containment and cleanup plan" for oil spills.

September 10, 1990 Senate Investigation Finds Senators McCain and Glenn Cleared.
The Senate Investigation on the Keating Scandal has found Senators Glenn and McCain cleared of impropriety. Senators Cranston, DeConcini, and Riegle are still under investigation. But Senators Glenn and McCain will no longer be part of the investigation.

In real life, they continued to be part of the investigation, most likely because Democrats wanted at least one Republican under investigation. Republicans in response, added Senator Glenn to the investigation. But in this timeline, because there are much more Democrats in the Senate, McCain is even more bipartisan than he was in real life (at this point) and so is not kept in the investigation.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: morgieb on May 10, 2012, 07:14:06 AM
In this TL, will 1990 be the Democrats 1994?

Good timeline, btw.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on May 10, 2012, 04:28:12 PM
In this TL, will 1990 be the Democrats 1994?

Good timeline, btw.

It's be somewhat similar, but it'll be more Anti-Democrats in Congress than Anti-Democratic President.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on May 10, 2012, 05:46:33 PM
Awesome timeline!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on May 11, 2012, 01:32:33 AM
October 2, 1990 Amalya Kearse Confirmed to the Supreme Court, first Black Female on Court.
The US Senate voted 85-to-14 to confirm the nomination of Judge Amalya Lyle Kearse to the Supreme Court, replacing retiring Justice William J. Brennan, Jr. She is the first black woman on the Supreme Court of the United States. She is 51 years old and has served as a judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit since 1979.

October 3, 1990 Germany Reunited (and it feels so good!)
West Germany and East Germany have ended 45 years of postwar division, declaring the creation of a new unified country.

October 6, 1990. Former KKK Grand Wizard David Duke Captures Senate Seat.
In a three way race that captured most of the nation’s attention, former Grand Wizard of the KKK David Duke has been elected as the next Senator from Louisiana. The unlikeliness of this outcome has been credited to Louisiana’s jungle primary. David Duke, running as a Republican received 34% of the vote, incumbent Democrat Bennett Johnson received 32%, and State Senator Republican Ben Bagart received 31%. Ben Bagart was endorsed by the Louisiana Republican Party, as well as almost all national Republicans.

In real life, Ben Bagart dropped out right before the election to guarantee that Duke was not elected. But since the environment is so anti-Democratic, Bagart assumes that he will win easily. In real life, Duke received 43.51 percent of the vote to Johnston's 53.93 percent.

October 8, 1990 Republican Party Will Not Include Duke in Caucus.
Despite the win yesterday of David Duke as the Republican Senator from Louisiana, the Republican Senate caucus has voted to not include him in their caucus. The only vote against this was that of Jesse Helms of North Carolina. Americans overwhelmingly support the Republican Party’s decision to not include him in their caucus.

October 10, 1990. Duke Announces He Will Serve as an Independent.
Abandoning his attempts to join the Republican caucus, David Duke has changed his party affiliation to an independent. Minority Leader Bob Dole: “We don’t want him in our party, plain and simple. That’s not what our party stands for, and it’s not what America stands for.”

November 6, 1990: Republicans Gain in Congress, but Democrats Keep Control
In the Midterm election of 1990, the Republican Party has gained seats in Congress, but not enough to gain control. Although this was seen as a goal by many on the right, the truth was that the large number of Democratic seats held made any attempt to change control impossible. In the Senate, the Republicans gained 3 seats, and a Democratic seat was gained by Independent David Duke in last month’s Louisiana jungle primary. Before this year’s changes, the Democrats held 58 seats and the Republicans held 42 seats. Next year’s Senate will have 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and 1 Independent. Although Republicans attempted to nationalize the election, many of the Senate Democrats that were up for election were individually popular and the map was just too difficult. For Democrats, they were unable to gain any Republican seats, and the only real possibility was in Minnesota, where challenger Paul Wellstone was unable to defeat incumbent Senator Rudy Boschwitz.

(
)

Rep +3 and Ind +1

Seat Changes in the Senate:
In Hawaii, Daniel Akaka, the Democratic Interim appointee elected to finish the term, lost to Republican Pat Saiki.
In Iowa, Democrat Tom Harkin lost to Republican Tom Tauke.
In Louisiana last month, Republican David Duke defeated incumbent Bennett Johnson Jr. But because of the Republican’s party refusal to accept him, Duke has changed his party to Independent.
In New Jersey, Bill Bradley lost re-election to Republican Christine Todd Whitman.

Changes from Real Life:
Daniel Akaka kept his seat and was not defeated by Pat Saiki
Tom Harkin kept his seat and was not defeated by Tom Tauke
Rudy Boschwitz kept his seat and was not defeated by Paul Wellstone.
Bill Bradley kept his seat and was not defeated by Christine Todd Whitman
Bennett Johnson Jr. Kept his seat in the October jungle primary and was not defeated by David Duke.


Republicans Make Big Gains in House
In contrast to their small gains in the Senate, the Republican Party gained 46 seats in the House of Representatives, a large gain but not enough to gain control. Previously, there were 278 Democrats in the House, and 157 Republicans. In next year’s Congress, there will be 232 Democrats in the House, and 203 Republicans.

Despite Democrats Keeping Control, a Conservative Coalition Expected.
The gains are enough that Republicans will be able to work with conservative Democrats to block further any further liberal legislation that is not acceptable. Any further legislation will certainly be right-of-center and may create difficulties with President Dukakis.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: Pingvin on May 11, 2012, 01:47:17 AM
Senator Duke?
OH. MY. GOD.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on May 11, 2012, 01:58:21 AM

When I was doing research on that election, I was AMAZED on how it wasn't even a stretch of the imagination to have Duke win. It was so likely that the official Republican nominee (Ben Bagart) dropped out, and many major Republicans endorsed the Democratic incumbent.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on May 11, 2012, 01:58:42 AM
The next update will feature the results of the Gubernatorial Elections of 1990, and because it's an anti-Democratic year, it will effect several races by a few points. The result in one state will permanently hinder the political career of one of our real timeline's most significant recent politicians. This goes back to my first post, on how many politicians simply got lucky or unlucky in their political career. Hint: In real life 1990, a retiring Republican governor A was succeeded by Democrat B who won by less than four percentage points. But in this timeline, the retiring Republican governor A will be succeeded by the Republican candidate C. Which means 4 years later.... a certain someone won't be able to challenge the incumbent Democrat B, they will instead be watching the Republican C run for reelection.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: Captain Chaos on May 11, 2012, 07:55:17 AM
I need to take issue with the Louisiana election. David Duke would have to go into a runoff with Senator Johnston if no candidate received an absolute majority of the vote which is the case ITTL.

Therefore, Duke should not have been declared elected with a plurality of the vote.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: morgieb on May 11, 2012, 08:31:43 AM
The next update will feature the results of the Gubernatorial Elections of 1990, and because it's an anti-Democratic year, it will effect several races by a few points. The result in one state will permanently hinder the political career of one of our real timeline's most significant recent politicians. This goes back to my first post, on how many politicians simply got lucky or unlucky in their political career. Hint: In real life 1990, a retiring Republican governor A was succeeded by Democrat B who won by less than four percentage points. But in this timeline, the retiring Republican governor A will be succeeded by the Republican candidate C. Which means 4 years later.... a certain someone won't be able to challenge the incumbent Democrat B, they will instead be watching the Republican C run for reelection.

So Bush has to wait until 1998 (at least)?

Very interesting.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on May 11, 2012, 01:36:10 PM
I need to take issue with the Louisiana election. David Duke would have to go into a runoff with Senator Johnston if no candidate received an absolute majority of the vote which is the case ITTL.

Therefore, Duke should not have been declared elected with a plurality of the vote.

Crap, you're right. Oh well. Let's just say Duke somehow did win a majority of the vote then. (He was only 7 points away from a majority in real life anyway)


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: Captain Chaos on May 11, 2012, 02:38:06 PM
I need to take issue with the Louisiana election. David Duke would have to go into a runoff with Senator Johnston if no candidate received an absolute majority of the vote which is the case ITTL.

Therefore, Duke should not have been declared elected with a plurality of the vote.

Crap, you're right. Oh well. Let's just say Duke somehow did win a majority of the vote then. (He was only 7 points away from a majority in real life anyway)

Johnston would have to blow the election for Duke to win it.

Duke would be lucky to win a majority of the white vote but blacks will turn out to vote and 99 percent of them will vote for Johnston.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on May 16, 2012, 06:05:53 PM
The next update will feature the results of the Gubernatorial Elections of 1990, and because it's an anti-Democratic year, it will effect several races by a few points. The result in one state will permanently hinder the political career of one of our real timeline's most significant recent politicians. This goes back to my first post, on how many politicians simply got lucky or unlucky in their political career. Hint: In real life 1990, a retiring Republican governor A was succeeded by Democrat B who won by less than four percentage points. But in this timeline, the retiring Republican governor A will be succeeded by the Republican candidate C. Which means 4 years later.... a certain someone won't be able to challenge the incumbent Democrat B, they will instead be watching the Republican C run for reelection.

So Bush has to wait until 1998 (at least)?

Very interesting.

Yup it's Bush. Bush will not run for Governor of Texas in 1994, mainly because there will be a Republican incumbent running for reelection. I haven't decided what path George Bush will take (if any). Update coming soon!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: Jerseyrules on May 16, 2012, 09:46:11 PM
The next update will feature the results of the Gubernatorial Elections of 1990, and because it's an anti-Democratic year, it will effect several races by a few points. The result in one state will permanently hinder the political career of one of our real timeline's most significant recent politicians. This goes back to my first post, on how many politicians simply got lucky or unlucky in their political career. Hint: In real life 1990, a retiring Republican governor A was succeeded by Democrat B who won by less than four percentage points. But in this timeline, the retiring Republican governor A will be succeeded by the Republican candidate C. Which means 4 years later.... a certain someone won't be able to challenge the incumbent Democrat B, they will instead be watching the Republican C run for reelection.

So Bush has to wait until 1998 (at least)?

Very interesting.

Yup it's Bush. Bush will not run for Governor of Texas in 1994, mainly because there will be a Republican incumbent running for reelection. I haven't decided what path George Bush will take (if any). Update coming soon!

Looking forward to it!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on May 19, 2012, 02:13:34 AM
November 6, 1990: Republicans Gain Governorships
In the Gubernatorial Elections of 1990, the Republicans gained 7 seats, the Democrats gained 4, and an independent party gained the Governorship of Alaska. In a notable result, the Governor of Massachusetts Evelyn Murphy, who succeeded to the office after President Michael Dukakis was elected, was unable to hold the seat against the Republican challenger William Weld.

(
)

Control Changes:
In Alaska, retiring Democrat Steve Cowper was succeeded by Walter Joseph Hickel of the Alaskan Independence Party.
In Arizona, retiring Democrat Rose Perica Mofford    was succeeded by Republican Fife Symington III.
In Connecticut, retiring Democrat William O'Neill was succeeded by Republican John Rowland.
In Florida, Republican Bob Martinez was defeated by Democrat Lawton Chiles.
In Massachusetts, Evelyn Murphy was defeated by Republican William Weld.
In Michigan, Democrat James Blanchard was defeated by Republican John Engler.
In Minnesota, Democrat Rudy Perpich was defeated by Republican Arne Carlson.
In New Mexico, retiring Democrat Garrey Carruthers was succeeded by Democrat Bruce King.
In Ohio, retiring Democrat Dick Celeste was succeeded by Republican George Voinovich.
In Oklahoma, retiring Henry Bellmon was succeeded by Democrat David Walters.
In Rhode Island, Republican Edward D. DiPrete was defeated by Democrat Bruce Sundlun.
In Vermont, retiring Democrat Madeleine M. Kunin was succeeded by Republican Richard A. Snelling.

Differences from real life:
In Connecticut, it was Lowell Weicker from the independent “A Connecticut Party” who succeeded William O’Neill and not John Rowland.
In Kansas, Republican Mike Hayden was defeated by Democrat Joan Finney.
In Massachusetts, Dukakis was retiring and the Democrat was John Silber, who nevertheless was defeated by William Weld.
In Nebraska, Republican Kay A. Orr was not defeated by Democrat Ben Nelson.
In Texas, retiring Republican Bill Clements was succeeded by Democrat Ann Richards, and not Republican Clayton Williams.



Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on May 19, 2012, 04:53:22 PM
January 3, 1991: The 102nd Congress Begins
Senate Majority Leader: George Mitchell
Majority Whip: Wendell Ford

Senate Minority Leader: Bob Dole
Minority Whip: Alan Simpson

Speaker: Thomas Foley
Majority Leader: William Gray
Majority Whip: Steny Hoyer

Minority Leader:
Robert Michel
Minority Whip: Dick Cheney

Senators:
Alabama:
Howell Heflin (D)
Dick Shelby (D)

Alaska:
Ted Stevens (R)
Frank H. Murkowski (R)

Arizona
Dennis DeConcini (D)
John McCain (R)

Arkansas
Dale Bumpers (D)
David Pryor (D)

California
Alan Cranston (D)
Pete Wilson (R), until January 7, 1991, because he resigned to take office as Governor.
John F. Seymour (R), from January 10, 1991

Colorado
Tim Wirth (D)
Hank Brown (R)

Connecticut
Christopher Dodd (D)
Joe Lieberman (D)

Delaware
William Roth (R)
Joe Biden (D)

Florida
Bob Graham (D)
Buddy McKay (D)

Georgia
Sam Nunn (D)
Wyche Fowler, Jr. (D)

Hawaii
Daniel K. Inouye (D)
Pat Saiki (R)

Idaho
Steve Symms (R)
Larry Craig (R)

Illinois
Alan J. Dixon (D)
Paul Simon (D)

Indiana
Richard Lugar (R)
Dan Quayle (R)

Iowa
Chuck Grassley (R)
Tom Tauke (R)

Kansas
Bob Dole (R)
Nancy Landon Kassebaum (R)

Kentucky
Wendell H. Ford (D)
Mitch McConnell (R)

Louisiana
David Duke (I)
John B. Breaux (D)

Maine
William S. Cohen (R)
George J. Mitchell (D)

Maryland
Paul S. Sarbanes (D)
Barbara A. Mikulski (D)

Massachusetts
Edward M. Kennedy (D)
John Kerry (D)

Michigan
Donald W. Riegle, Jr. (D)
Carl Levin (D)

Minnesota
David Durenberger (R)
Rudy Boschwitz (R)

Mississippi
Thad Cochran (R)
Trent Lott (R)

Missouri
John C. Danforth (R)
Kit Bond (R)

Montana
Max Baucus (D)
John Melcher (D)
   
Nebraska
Jim Exon (D)
J. Robert Kerrey (D)

Nevada
Harry Reid (D)
Richard H. Bryan (D)

New Hampshire
Warren B. Rudman (R)
Bob Smith (R)

New Jersey
Christine Todd Whitman (R)
Frank R. Lautenberg (D)

New Mexico
Pete Domenici (R)
Jeff Bingaman (D)

New York
Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D)
Al D'Amato (R)

North Carolina
Jesse Helms (R)
Terry Sanford (D)

North Dakota
Quentin N. Burdick (D)
Kent Conrad (D)

Ohio
John Glenn (D)
Howard Metzenbaum (D)

Oklahoma
David L. Boren (D)
Don Nickles (R)

Oregon
Mark O. Hatfield (R)
Bob Packwood (R)

Pennsylvania
John Heinz (R)
Arlen Specter (R)

Rhode Island
Claiborne Pell (D)
John H. Chafee (R)

South Carolina
Strom Thurmond (R)
Ernest F. Hollings (D)

South Dakota
Larry Pressler (R)
Thomas A. Daschle (D)

Tennessee
Jim Sasser (D)
Al Gore (D)

Texas
Lloyd Bentsen (D)
Phil Gramm (R)

Utah
Jake Garn (R)
Orrin G. Hatch (R)

Vermont
Patrick Leahy (D)
James Jeffords (R)

Virginia
John W. Warner (R)
Charles S. Robb (D)

Washington
Brock Adams (D)
Mike Lowry (D)

West Virginia
Robert C. Byrd (D)
John D. Rockefeller IV (D)

Wisconsin
Bob Kasten (R)
Herb Kohl (D)

Wyoming
Malcolm Wallop (R)
Alan K. Simpson (R)

I'm going to post the list of Senators at the beginning of each Congress, to keep you informed of who is in office.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: Jerseyrules on May 21, 2012, 06:11:20 PM
Nice.  Continue ;)


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on May 23, 2012, 09:56:51 PM
February 10, 1991. Keating Scandal Report Released
The Keating Scandal has been released. Senator Cranston has been reprimanded, while Senators Riegle and DeConcini are criticized for acting improperly.

February 15, 1991. Republicans call for Three Democratic Senators to Resign, President Dukakis Does Not Support Resignations.
Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole and the other Republican senators have released a statement calling for the three Democratic Senators affiliated with the Keating Scandal (Cranston, Riegle, and DeConcini) to resign. President Dukakis is determined to work with Congress and not campaign against it, and refuses to call on the senators to resign. “The report has been released and now we know what happened. But now it’s time for Congress to get back to work.” Polls on whether the senators should resign show 55% in favor of them resigning, 20% opposed, and 25% unsure.

March 3, 1991. Gay Adoption Bill Fails in Vote.
A bill allowing for gay individuals to adopt children has failed to pass the Senate. Southern Democrats strongly opposed this bill and combined with conservative Republicans were able to create a majority. President Dukakis had announced his support for the bill, along with the liberal Democrats and several northern moderate Republicans.

In reality, Dukakis was opposed to gay adoption, but that was in 1988, when he was running for President and I believe did not want to appear too liberal at that time. I have him supporting this bill since he is already President at this time and he believes the country is more liberal than it really is.


March 17, 1991. Senator Dick Shelby Switches to the GOP
Alabama Senator has switched parties and has agreed to caucus with the Republican Party. “The strong shift to the left by the Democratic Party and President Dukakis was difficult, especially with the recent homosexual adoption bill. But with the refusal of the Democratic Party and more importantly, with the President to refuse to call for the resignations of the three Keating Senators was too much.” The new Senate is 54 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and 1 Independent.

March, 27, 1991. McCain-Kerry Campaign Reform Act signed into Law.
Citing the strong desire of the public to end corruption, the McCain-Kerry Campaign Reform Act has been signed into law. President Dukakis supported this law, and because of his refusal to call for the resignation of the Keating Senators, was reluctant to appear unserious about ending corruption. The new law regulates the financing of political campaigns. Its chief sponsors were Senators John Kerry (D-MA) and John McCain (R-AZ). The law will become effective on 6 November 1991, and the new legal limits will become effective on January 1, 1992. It is widely expected to affect the upcoming Presidential election. Senator John McCain has been widely lauded for this bill, and despite being only in his first term, there are already calls for him to enter next year’s Presidential race.

March 30, 1991. First GOP Nomination Poll Shows Open Race
The first national poll for the Republican nomination shows a wide open race with no clear frontrunner. With 20 percent each are Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole and former Vice Presidential nominee and current Senator Dan Quayle. Minority Whip Dick Cheney is a strong third with 15%. None of the polled candidates have announced a run, but it is highly expected that these top three will run.

Bob Dole: 20
Dan Quayle: 20
Dick Cheney: 15
Lamar Alexander: 5
Arlen Specter: 5
Phil Gramm: 5
John McCain: 5
Dick Lugar: 0
Pete Wilson: 0
Undecided: 25%

It is important to note that one of the main reasons Colin Powell became well respected was because of his leadership in the invasion of Panama and in the Persian Gulf War. But because those two events don’t happen, he is not as famous as he was in real life. In addition, this is 1992 and not 1996 (when he was considering a run) and so Colin Powell is still serving as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on May 23, 2012, 10:05:37 PM
April 4, 1991. Senator John Heinz Injured in Plane Crash But Expected to Survive.
Senator John Heinz of Pennsylvania has been injured in a plane crash, suffering a broken arm and fractured leg, but is expected to survive.

April 6, 1991. Senator Richard Lugar Announces Run for President, McCain declines.
Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana has announced he will run for President, while Senator McCain of Arizona has declined.

April 20, 1991. Former Vice Presidential Nominee Dan Quayle Announces Run for President
Former Vice Presidential nominee and Senator of Indiana Dan Quayle has announced that he will run for President. He has high name recognition as a result of his place on the 1988 ticket, but still faces comments that he was a negative on the ticket.

May 3, 1991. Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole Announces Run for President, Arlen Specter Declines.
Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas has announced that he will run for President. He is probably the closest person that could be labeled a frontrunner but the race is still early. Senator Arlen Specter has declined to run and is the first senator to endorse Dole.

May 20, 1991. Senator Phil Gramm and Governor Pete Wilson Announce Run for President.
Senator Phil Gramm of Texas and Governor Pete Wilson of California have both announced that they will run for President.

May 30, 1991. New National Poll: Dole and Cheney Tied, Quayle Third.
A new poll has shown that Minority Whip Dick Cheney, despite no statement that he is running, is rising in the polls and is now tied with Bob Dole. Quayle is now third.

Bob Dole: 25
Dick Cheney: 25
Dan Quayle 15
Lamar Alexander: 5
Phil Gramm: 5
Dick Lugar: 5
Pete Wilson: 0
Undecided: 20%


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on May 23, 2012, 10:11:39 PM
Will Pat Buchanan make a bid?


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist.
Post by: retromike22 on May 23, 2012, 10:25:45 PM

No. The main reason he did was because he was opposed to President George Bush. Becoming more well known in that year, he had more name recognition to help him in 1996. He's a nonfactor in this timeline.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: GLPman on May 24, 2012, 07:32:45 PM
Great so far. A Dukakis-Cheney race would be really interesting, so I'll be rooting for Cheney.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on May 25, 2012, 01:25:52 PM
Haven't kept up that much with this, but I'm glad I clicked on it right when the 1992 election was starting to get under way. It's been done only once before (that I know of) and a Cheney presidency would be really interesting! :)


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on May 26, 2012, 01:42:31 AM
June 2, 1991. Cheney Will Not Run.
Despite flirting with the idea of running, Minority Whip Dick Cheney has announced that he will not seek the nomination. He has also stated that he will not endorse anyone, preferring to let the “process play itself out.” Sorry guys, I had always planned for Cheney not to run. I actually have this timeline drafted out until 2000 so far, and so I already know the outcomes of the Presidential elections of 1992, 1996, and 2000.

June 3, 1991. The Family and Medical Leave Act Signed Into Law
The Family and Medical Leave Act of 1993 is a United States federal law requiring covered employers to provide employees job-protected and unpaid leave for qualified medical and family reasons. Qualified medical and family reasons include; personal or family illness, military service, family military leave, pregnancy, adoption, or the foster care placement of a child.

June 5, 1991. Lamar Alexander Announces Run for President.
Former Governor of Tennessee Lamar Alexander has announced that he will run for president.

June 8, 1991: With Cheney’s Exit, Dole Surges in National Poll.
Since the refusal of Minority Whip Dick Cheney to enter the race for the Republican nomination, Senator Bob Dole has established himself as the GOP frontrunner. Rising up in the polls are Senator Phil Gramm of Texas and former Governor Lamar Alexander. Both are believed to carry strength with the religious right and among those who believe Bob Dole is not conservative enough.

Bob Dole: 30
Dan Quayle 15
Phil Gramm: 15
Lamar Alexander: 10
Dick Lugar: 5
Pete Wilson: 5
Undecided: 20%

June 10, 1991 Unemployment at 6.8%
The unemployment rate is at 6.8%, lower than the 7.2% it was at this point last year, but it does not appear to be rebounding fast enough for some. President Dukakis and the left wing of the Democratic Party are drafting an economic stimulus package that would increase government spending to encourage growth. Most on the right are opposed to a plan that would increase spending and have instead focused on tax cuts to lower unemployment.

June 14, 1991 Conservative Democrats Say No Stimulus Package without Tax Cuts.
In a sign that the gap between the President and Congress is growing, several conservative Democrats have stated that they will not vote for a stimulus package unless it contains tax cuts.

June 20, 1991: Dole, Gramm, Quayle Tied in Iowa.
In Iowa, it is a three way tie between Senators Dole, Gramm, and Quayle. Both Gramm and Quayle are on the rise and if either wins Iowa, could be a strong challenger to Senator Dole.

Bob Dole 20
Phil Gramm 20
Dan Quayle 20
Lamar Alexander 10
Dick Lugar 5
Pete Wilson 5
Undecided: 20%

June 21, 1991: Dole Leads in New Hampshire, Lugar Third.
In New Hampshire, Senator Dole has a strong 10 point lead above Senator Quayle. Senator Lugar, who is solely focusing on New Hampshire and ignoring Iowa, has now risen to 3rd place in the polls.

Bob Dole 30
Dan Quayle 20
Dick Lugar 12
Phil Gramm 8
Pete Wilson 5
Lamar Alexander 5
Undecided: 20%

June 25, 1991: Vote on Stimulus Package Passes House, but Fails in Senate.
A vote on the economic stimulus package has passed the House, but failed to pass the Senate. In the House, it narrowly passed, 230 to 205. In the Senate however, it failed on a 52-48 vote. Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole was able to convince all 45 Republicans to vote against it. This, combined with the 6 Conservative Democrats and the vote of Independent David Duke, were able to add up to 52 votes. Discussions will begin on a compromise that is certain to contain tax cuts.

July 1, 1991 Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall to Retire.
Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall will retire, allowing President Dukakis to name another individual to the Supreme Court.

July 10, 1991. Compromise Stimulus Package Passes Congress, President Dukakis Will Sign.

After several weeks of discussions, a compromise was reached on the stimulus package. Funding will go to all states for budget relief, infrastructure, education, and energy. In addition, there will be tax incentives for low income and middle class families, a tax credit for families with children, and tax incentives for small businesses.

July 14, 1991 Texas Businessman Ross Perot Will Not Run For President.
Despite several rumors, Texas businessman Ross Perot has declined to run for President, stating “I am not interesting in running for President. I only want to help get the one we have and his corrupt party out of there!”

July 25, 1991 President Dukakis Nominates Ruth Bader Ginsburg to Supreme Court.
President Dukakis has nominated Ruth Bader Ginsburg to the Supreme Court. If confirmed she will be the third woman on the present Court.

August 2, 1991. Quayle Now Leads Nationally
Senator Quayle has overtaken Senator Dole nationally. The conservatives seem to be coalescing around Senator Quayle, who appears to appeal to each conservative faction: Socially, Economically, and Foreign Policy.
Dan Quayle 30
Bob Dole: 25
Phil Gramm: 13
Lamar Alexander: 7
Dick Lugar: 5
Pete Wilson: 5
Undecided: 15%

August 4, 1991. Former Vice President Bush Endorses Quayle!
Former Vice President George Bush has endorsed Senator Dan Quayle, giving him a large boost of support. It is clear that there will be a conservative challenger to Dole, and it looks likely to be Senator Quayle.

August 5, 1991. Gramm and Quayle Tied in Iowa, Dole Drops.
Senators Gramm and Quayle are now tied in Iowa, with Senator Dole 7 points behind.
Phil Gramm 25
Dan Quayle 25
Bob Dole 18
Lamar Alexander 12
Richard Lugar 5
Pete Wilson 0
Undecided: 15%

August 10, 1991: Dan Quayle Misspells Potato!
Senator Dan Quayle has misspelled the word “potato.” At the Munoz Rivera Elementary School spelling bee in Trenton, New Jersey, Senator Quayle altered 12 year old student William Figueroa's correct spelling of "potato" to "potatoe.” Quayle has been widely mocked for his apparent inability to spell the word "potato," and many in the media and politicians on both sides are joining in the amusement. This setback for Quayle comes only a week before the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa…


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Jerseyrules on May 28, 2012, 08:47:14 PM
Please not potatoe....

I don't love Quayle but I hate the sh**t he gets in otl.  Same with W.  No, they aren't the brightest bulbs in the box, but do we really need to say that they're broken?  Anyway, I'd like to see Ron Paul and Pete Wilson make bids ITTL.  It would be neat to see a president Pete Wilson TL.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on June 02, 2012, 12:42:24 AM
August 19, 1991: Phil Gramm Wins Ames Straw Poll, Quayle Third.
Senator Phil Gramm of Texas has won the Ames Straw Poll, with 30% of the vote. Second is Senator Bob Dole with 25%. Senator Dan Quayle, who had hoped to win the poll or at least come in second, has placed third. This is widely believed to be due to last week’s potato gaffe. Although Senator Quayle has very high name recognition, he also has the highest negatives of the candidates running.

Ames Straw Poll Results:
Phil Gramm 30%
Bob Dole 25%
Dan Quayle 16%
Lamar Alexander 14%
Richard Lugar 8%
Pete Wilson 7%

August 21, 1991: Pete Wilson Drops Out, Endorses Dole.
Following a last place finish in the Ames Straw Poll, Governor Pete Wilson of California has dropped out of the race for President and has endorsed Bob Dole.

August 24, 1991: President Dukakis Opposes NAFTA Proposal.
President Dukakis has stated that he opposes the North American Free Trade Agreement, stating that it will lead to the loss of American manufacturing jobs. “With the economy beginning to rebound, the NAFTA proposal is the wrong idea at the wrong time” says President Dukakis. A majority of Democrats agree with his stance, but in contrast several conservative Democrats and almost all Republicans support the NAFTA proposal.

August 25, 1991: National Poll: Dole Leads but Gramm Rising.
Senator Bob Dole is still leading the nomination for President, but Senator Phil Gramm has risen to second. Senator Quayle is now tied for third with former Governor of Tennessee Lamar Alexander.

Bob Dole 30
Phil Gramm 25
Dan Quayle 10
Lamar Alexander 10
Richard Lugar 5
Undecided: 20

September 10, 1991. Majority Leader Gray Will Not Resign From Congress.
Majority Leader William Gray has declined to resign in order to become the President of the United Negro College Fund. In real life, he did resign.

September 23, 1991: Ruth Bader Ginsburg Confirmed to the Supreme Court.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg has been confirmed by the Senate to become the next Supreme Court Justice.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Jerseyrules on June 02, 2012, 03:13:13 PM
Gramm / Wilson 92!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on June 02, 2012, 03:59:51 PM
Whoa! Haven't read all of the last update (great stuff, btw), but I noticed Dole lost the Ames Straw Poll. Given Iowa was supposed to be "his state"--he'd won it in '88 and was from a nearby state--how is the Dole camp taking this? In OTL, when Ames was tied in '96, the Doles were getting nervous and saying how even a tie was a loss and a symbol of weakness in the state they should've done well in. How's it going in the TTL Dole campaign?

Also, I'm with Quayle on "potatoe". Form what I know, he for one only spelled it wrong due to it being spelled that way on the card and later said "I thought it looked odd, but I decided to go with what it said." and for two, probably wouldn't have been in a position to misspell "potatoe" if he weren't already VP.

As well, in OTL, Ron Paul was planning a run for President in '92, but backed out when Buchanan entered. Is he considering one in this? And did Buchanan consider entering?

Great work so far!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on June 05, 2012, 11:52:03 PM
September 28, 1991: Majority Disapprove of President Dukakis.
In the latest sign of bad news for the President, his approval rating has declined to 42 percent, and his disapproval among Americans is now 52 percent. It is clear that the President and the Democratic Congress have become irreversibly linked, and his attempts to boost Congress’ favorability with favorable legislation is not working.

Do you approve of President Dukakis?
Disapprove 52
Approve 42

October 1, 1991: Head to Head Polls Show Dole Best Against Dukakis, Quayle Worst.

Dole 50
Dukakis 42
Undecided 8

Dukakis 46
Gramm 46
Undecided 8

Dukakis 48
Quayle 44
Undecided 8

Dukakis 46
Alexander 46
Undecided 8

October 2, 1991: President Dukakis Vetoes Welfare Reform Act.
President Dukakis has vetoed a bill that was passed by Congress that would strongly reform welfare. The bill would add a workforce development component to welfare legislation, encouraging employment among the poor. The President stated “This bill would end or reduce help for millions of Americans who need it the most. I cannot abandon them now, when we need all the help we can get in bringing our economy back to life.” Senator Bob Dole has stated “This is a President who does not care if you do not work; he wants you to be dependent on the government forever.” Despite its Republican origins, the bill was able to pass Congress due to its crossover support by conservative Democrats. Discussions will begin on a bill that can either gain the President’s approval or gain a veto-proof majority.

October 4, 1991: Former Governor of California Jerry Brown Announces Run for President!
Former Governor of California Jerry Brown has announced that he will run for President, challenging President Dukakis in next year’s primaries. Governor Brown stated, “I will take back America from the confederacy of corruption, careerism, and campaign consulting in Washington." In his speech, Governor Brown clearly tapped into a populist streak in the Democratic Party. He told listeners that he would only be accepting campaign contributions from individuals and that he would accept no contribution over $100. He also is calling for term limits for members of Congress and is promising to put an end to Congress being a "Stop-and-Shop for the moneyed special interests". This is the second time Governor Jerry Brown has challenged an incumbent Democratic President. The first time was in 1980 against Jimmy Carter, and many in the media are noticing a parallel between Carter’s situation in 1979 and Dukakis today in 1991.

October 5, 1991: Rumors that Other Democrats may Challenge Dukakis.
After the bombshell news of former Governor Jerry Brown’s entrance into the presidential race, there are rumors that other Democrats may challenge President Dukakis in the Democratic primaries of next year. Owing to the strong anti-Congress mood that is in the nation, all the attention is focused on current governors. There appears to be two groups, the first is those who believe that the President is sufficiently liberal but too lenient on corruption. In this group are the former Governor of California Jerry Brown, who is already running, and the Governor of New York Mario Cuomo, and the Governor of Maryland William Donald Schaefer. The second group is those who believe the President is simply too liberal to appeal to the electorate next year. This includes the pro-life Governor of Pennsylvania Bob Casey, and the Governor of Arkansas Bill Clinton.

October 6, 1991: Governor of Maryland William Schaefer Will Not Challenge Dukakis.
The Governor of Maryland William Schaefer has released a statement saying that he will not challenge President Dukakis in the primaries next year. “I am a proud supporter of our President and of our party, and any attempt to divide our party will only embolden our opponents.”

October 8, 1991: Democratic Primary Poll Shows Problems for Dukakis.
Despite only one of these candidates openly stating that they will challenge President Dukakis, a national poll has shown that the President does not receive a majority of support from his own party. The President has received 45% in the national poll, with Mario Cuomo receiving 21%, Jerry Brown 14%, Bob Casey 5%, and Bill Clinton 5%.

Michael Dukakis 45
Mario Cuomo 21
Jerry Brown 14
Bob Casey 5
Bill Clinton 5
Undecided 10

October 9, 1991: Calls Grow Louder on Governors to State Their Intentions.
The Fantastic Four, some are calling them, on a bold mission to save the Democratic Party and then the country. Or they are the Horrible Four, on a selfish and dangerous challenge to the incumbent President, when he needs the help of every Democrat come next November. Either way, there is growing pressure on Governors Cuomo, Clinton, and Casey to state whether they will join Governor Brown in his challenge to the President. To Democrats across the country, the three governors' silence is either troubling or stirring.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on June 06, 2012, 05:17:42 AM
Go Jerry!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on June 06, 2012, 09:43:39 PM
Sheesh...the 1992 Republican field is awful (through no fault of the author's; it's just there weren't a lot of interesting people in real life to pick from, IMO). For the time line, I was rooting for Pete Wilson. Quayle is the "flashiest" of the crew running I suppose, but also the riskiest. Sen. John Heinze may have been a good pick to run for President (his record is a bit liberal, but that wasn't as damaging in '92 as it would be today). Too bad he died April, 1991.

Awwwwwwwww you spoiled the surprise! Who said Heinz is dead in this TL? He's very much alive and I had it planned that he will be part of a future Republican administration. (I'm not revealing which year in the future, and Heinz will be either President, Vice-President, or in the Cabinet.)  I'll edit a past posting to include a note of him being alive.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on June 06, 2012, 11:37:54 PM
October 10, 1991: Governor Mario Cuomo Announces He Will Not Run.
Governor Mario Cuomo of New York has announced that he will not challenge President Dukakis, stating that he “has no desire to seek higher office.”

October 11, 1991: Governor Bill Clinton Declines to Run.
Governor Bill Clinton has stated that he will not challenge President Dukakis next year, depriving the field of a candidate from the South. Privately, Bill Clinton does not want to be seen as contributing to Dukakis’ defeat, and he is doubtful a Democrat can win in 1992 either way.

October 12, 1991: Governor Bob Casey Announces Run for President.
Governor Bob Casey of Pennsylvania has announced that he will run for President. The Governor is pro-life, supportive of gun rights, and supportive of unions.

October 13, 1991: President Dukakis Vetoes New Welfare Reform Act.
Despite the concessions made to many Democrats, the welfare reform act has been vetoed by the President.

October 23, 1991: Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act Overrides President’s Veto.
The Congress has overridden the President’s Veto of the welfare reform act. It passed the House 300 to 135, with almost 100 of the 232 Democrats supporting it, many of them conservatives and moderates’ aiming to secure their own support, as the bill is popular. It passed in the Senate 68 to 32, also with support from many Democrats. The bill ends welfare as an entitlement program, it requires recipients to begin working after two years of receiving benefits, it placing a lifetime limit of six years on benefits paid by federal funds, it aims to encourage two-parent families and discourage out-of-wedlock births, and it enhances enforcement of child support.

October 24, 1991: Democratic National Poll Shows President Still Under 50%, 1 in 4 Undecided.
President Dukakis is currently at 45% among national Democrats. Former Governor Brown is at 25%, and Governor Casey is at 15%. After the refusal of Governors Cuomo and Clinton to enter the race, the number of undecided has risen to 25%. Many Democratic officials are split over whether to stick with Dukakis and unify next November, or support a new nominee in the hopes that they will have a better chance of winning.

Dukakis 45
Brown 25
Casey 15
Undecided 25

November 1, 1991: Republican National Poll, Dole Leads, Gramm Second, Quayle Falling.
Following a series of more gaffes, including one in which Senator Quayle claimed that there was water and canals on Mars, he has fallen to 4th place nationally. Bob Dole continues to lead, this time with 30%. Senator Gramm is now at 23%, and Governor Alexander has risen to 3rd for the first time this year. It is clear that Governor Alexander is gaining most of his support from former Quayle supporters. In last place, Senator Lugar continues to linger, this time at 8%. Many believe Senator Lugar is too moderate to run as President, and he has decided to ignore the Iowa caucuses and focus on New Hampshire.
Bob Dole 30
Phil Gramm 23
Lamar Alexander 14
Dan Quayle 10
Richard Lugar 8
Undecided: 15


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: tmthforu94 on June 06, 2012, 11:51:41 PM
Just a nitpick:

In 1992, Lugar would have been considered a conservative. After all, he voted more with Reagan than any other Senator. Most of his moderate tendancies have come in the 21st century.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Jerseyrules on June 07, 2012, 04:25:41 PM
Go Gramm!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: MorningInAmerica on June 08, 2012, 04:59:52 PM
Love this TL! Any idea how far you'll take it, like all the way to present day?


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on June 08, 2012, 06:53:42 PM
Love this TL! Any idea how far you'll take it, like all the way to present day?
I have it rough drafted until 2000, and some notes up until 2008. The big events like elections are easy, but it's really hard to invent some type of political event that happens each month, especially legislation for this timeline. Its a lot of fun writing it, I get to do something with my bachelor's in political science I got last December since I can't find a job with it haha.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: MorningInAmerica on June 08, 2012, 07:06:42 PM
I have a ba in poli sci as well, and am in law school for that exact same reason!

Plus, very glad to know we have a lot to look forward to with this story.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on June 15, 2012, 01:25:20 AM
December 4, 1991 Republican Iowa Poll Shows Alexander Gaining, Quayle Could Come in Last.
Current polling in Iowa has Senator Gramm continuing to lead Dole by single digits. However, Governor Alexander is on the rise, and could siphon off enough votes to give Dole a surprise victory.
Phil Gramm 28%
Bob Dole 22%
Lamar Alexander 17%
Dan Quayle 13%
Richard Lugar 10%
Undecided: 10

December 5, 1991: Democratic Iowa Poll Shows Brown Narrowly Ahead.
An average of recent polls has shown that former Governor of California Jerry Brown has a slight lead in Iowa. President Dukakis is polling at 32 percent and Governor Casey of Pennsylvania is in the double digits with 18 percent. Some representatives are calling for the President to decline a run for a second term if he loses badly in Iowa or New Hampshire.
Brown 35
Dukakis 32
Casey 18
Undecided 15

December 6, 1991: Republican New Hampshire Poll Has Dole Ahead, but Lugar Strong.
Senator Bob Dole has a strong lead in New Hampshire, but Senator Lugar has risen up to 2nd place. It is clear that by focusing on New Hampshire, Senator Lugar has gained support, but it is unclear whether that can turn into a surprise victory in February.
Bob Dole 35
Dick Lugar 20
Dan Quayle 18
Phil Gramm 12
Lamar Alexander 5
Undecided: 10%

December 7, 1991: Dukakis Leads in New Hampshire.
President Dukakis has a strong lead in New Hampshire, which neighbors his home state and the President has visited several times. The President’s campaign is planning to create New Hampshire as a back-up in case they lose in Iowa.

Dukakis 52
Brown 18
Casey 15
Undecided 15

December 17, 1991: Soviet Union to End by Next Year.
In a stunning set of events that have shocked the world, Russian President Boris Yeltsin and Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev have agreed to dissolve the Soviet Union by the New Year. The Cold War finally appears to be nearing its end and a new unknown period is ready to emerge.

December 18, 1991: President Declares “No Cold War” with Soviet Union.
President Dukakis has stated that there is no cold war with the Soviet Union, and that any successor state will not be an enemy to the United States. With just a few months before the first caucuses and primaries, the recent focus on foreign events has turned the presidential race upside down.

December 25: 1991: The End of the Soviet Union.
Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev went on television to announce his resignation as the eighth and final leader of a Communist superpower that had already gone out of existence. This effectively ends the cold war.

December 31, 1991: State of Politics at the end of 1991.
At the end of 1991, the dominant Democratic Party is splitting itself apart. After a tough midterm election where they kept control but nevertheless lost many seats, the liberal wing of the party has lost control of Congress. What controls Congress now is a coalition of moderate and conservative Democrats aligned with moderate Republicans and occasionally conservative Republicans. The Democratic Party brand is still heavily damaged, and the phrase “corruption” still surrounds them. Ironically, the large amount of legislation that has been signed into law, including the universal health care bill, is moderately popular. It is an unusual situation where the policies are approved of, but not the politicians who created them.

In the Republican race for the President, only one thing is constant. Senator Bob Dole is a weak frontrunner. Most believe that Dole has the easiest chance to beat Dukakis, but many wonder, what kind of Republican would he be? He is popular with moderates and independents but lacks the conservative backing that has gone to his two challengers, Senator Gramm and Governor Alexander. Senator Quayle, far from being the frontrunner he expected to be, has had the greatest collapse. Senator Lugar is hoping for a miracle in New Hampshire.

President Dukakis has a majority of the public who disapprove of him, and does not even have a majority of support from Democrats nationwide. The President is too liberal, too ineffective, too lenient on corruption, or simply just too out of touch. With welfare reform he sparked a fight with Congress (which was controlled by his own party), and lost. Governor Brown has ignited a movement on the left which is clear in his numbers in Iowa, but so many are comparing this to Kennedy vs. Carter, in which Carter was left bruised and strongly defeated by Reagan. Governor Casey is simply running to Dukakis’ right, painting the President as too far left to unite the country.

Unemployment is still higher than it should be, and the economy is stagnant but still improving. For months the question was “will it improve in time by next November?” But with the end of the Soviet Union, so much seems to have changed. The Cold War is over, and the United States is the sole superpower. It was what many Americans wished for decades, and with the United States avoiding a war in Panama and Iraq, the world seems to be getting in order. Already the President’s campaign has started advertisements and commercials touting Dukakis as the President who “defeated the Soviet Union,” and who “brought peace and stability to the world.” It is a remarkably impressive foreign polciy, but the message from America appears to be: “What about us?”

January 1, 1992: After Soviet Union’s fall, an Uptick in Support for President Dukakis.
Following the final end of the Soviet Union, the President’s Approval rating is now 46%, with disapproval 42%. It is the first time in months that his approval is higher than his disapproval. This comes just one month before the Iowa Caucus.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on June 15, 2012, 01:53:17 PM
For the Dems I'd like a strong showing for both Brown and Casey, and I guess on the other end I'd be rooting for either Dole or Gramm.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Jerseyrules on June 17, 2012, 06:41:51 PM
Go Gramm!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on June 23, 2012, 09:51:22 PM
January 20, 1992: National Republican Poll Has Dole Slightly Ahead of Gramm.
Just a few weeks before the Iowa Caucus, a national poll has Senator Dole narrowly ahead of Senator Gramm. Governor Alexander is on the rise and Senator Quayle has fallen to single digits and is tied with Senator Lugar.
Bob Dole 30
Phil Gramm 26
Lamar Alexander 18
Dan Quayle 8
Richard Lugar 8
Undecided: 10

January 21, 1992: National Democratic Poll Has Dukakis With a Majority.
A national poll has shown that President Dukakis has regained the majority of Democrats nationally. The recent collapse of the Soviet Union and the administration’s advertising on television and campaigning with popular surrogates have improved the President’s image.
Dukakis 55
Casey 20
Brown 15
Undecided 10

January 28, 1992: In State of the Union Address, President Dukakis Announces End of Cold War, Further Cuts in Defense, Expansion of Medicare to Children, and High Speed Rail System.
President Dukakis has shown his determination to double down on his previous achievements and to advance further liberal causes. “Together we need to show America that we are working as hard as they are,” stated the President. The response by Congressional Democrats was supportive but not overly enthusiastic. Most of his proposals have a majority of support with Democrats, but they are cautious over how the President will intend to work with them and not challenge them. The Republican Response was by Minority Whip Dick Cheney, who stated: “The President has decided that he and the Democrats have not gone far enough with their liberal agenda. They want to control your lives, simply because they do not believe you have the ability to help yourself. But the Republican Party believes in you. We believe you should control of your own life and not corrupt government bureaucrats.” The Minority Whip’s response wins praise, at it links the President with the unpopular Congress, always referring them to “they” and recommending the Republican Party as a new direction for America.

February 9, 1992: Iowa Poll has Three Way Tie between Dole, Gramm, and Alexander.
On the eve of the Iowa Caucus, the last poll has a tie between Dole, Gramm, and Alexander. Alexander’s rise comes at the last week and is of concern to Gramm’s campaign. Many believe that Alexander and Gramm may both gain such an equal number of votes that may cause Dole to win. Senator Quayle is hoping for a miracle and many believe that he must come in at least in third place. Senator Lugar is focused on New Hampshire and won’t even be in Iowa.

Lamar Alexander 24
Phil Gramm 24
Bob Dole 24
Dan Quayle 17
Richard Lugar 6
Undecided: 5

February 9, 1992: Dukakis Expected to Win Iowa Caucus.

President Dukakis is now strongly ahead with Iowa Democrats, and is expected to easily win tomorrow’s caucuses. Enough of Brown’s support has gone back to the President, and Governor Casey has risen to 22%. It is possible that Dukakis may not secure as majority, and this could be a serious blunder for the President.
Dukakis 48
Brown 25
Casey 22
Undecided 5


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on June 23, 2012, 09:58:51 PM
Go Dole, Gramm, Brown, & Casey!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on June 23, 2012, 10:26:29 PM
February 10 Senator Phil Gramm Wins Iowa Caucus! Alexander Second and Dole Third.
()

Phil Gramm 30%
Lamar Alexander 26%
Bob Dole 24%
Dan Quayle 16%
Richard Lugar 4%

Senator Phil Gramm has narrowly won the Iowa Caucus with 30%. Governor Lamar Alexander has pulled a small upset by placing second. It appears as though the conservatives really came out for both Alexander and Gramm, giving both a minor but necessary boost over Dole. This is clearly the worst case scenario for the Dole campaign, who had hoped a win here would end the primaries early. Following a fourth place showing, Senator Dan Quayle in his speech has stated that he will not drop out and will continue on to New Hampshire. Senator Richard Lugar is hopeful that Dole’s third place showing will lower enough support to give Lugar a win in New Hampshire.

February 10, 1992: Dukakis Wins Iowa Caucus, but without a Majority.

()
President Dukakis has won the Iowa Caucus with 48% of the vote, failing to achieve a majority. Governor Brown has placed 2nd, with 27% and Governor Casey almost pulled off an upset with 25%. Both Governors stated in their speeches that they will continue their campaigns.
Dukakis 48
Brown 27
Casey 25

February 13, 1992: President Holds Bare Majority Nationally.
Following his inability to gain a majority with Iowa Democrats, a similar event is occurring nationally. President Dukakis holds 50% nationally, and both Governors Casey and Brown hold 20%. Governor Brown is continuing his message that the President is ineffective and tied too closely with corruption, and offers a liberal alternative. Governor Casey is attacking the President from the center, claiming that the President is too socially liberal for America, and so unable to win in November.

Dukakis 50
Casey 20
Brown 20
Undecided 10

February 14, 1992: Gramm Seizes Lead Nationally.
Following his win in Iowa, Senator Gramm now leads Senator Dole by 5 points. Governor Alexander has risen to 20%, and Senator Quayle has collapsed to last, losing most of his support.
Phil Gramm 35
Bob Dole 30
Lamar Alexander 20
Richard Lugar 6
Dan Quayle 4
Undecided: 5

February 16, 1992: Dole Still Leads in New Hampshire.
Senator Dole continues to lead in New Hampshire, and his campaign is desperately hoping for a big win in the state. Senator Lugar is hoping that he can pull off an upset and beat Dole, but more realistically, they hope to make it a close race. Senator Gramm is riding the media storm and hoping that he can do will enough to show that he isn’t a one-state-wonder. Governor Alexander has decided to pass on the New Hampshire primary and will be in Nevada campaigning for their February 29th caucus. Senator Quayle’s campaign is in shambles and is hoping again for another miracle.

Bob Dole 32
Richard Lugar 24
Phil Gramm 21
Lamar Alexander 13
Dan Quayle 5
Undecided: 5

February 17, 1992: Dukakis Leads in New Hampshire.
In contrast to Iowa, President Dukakis has always had strong support in New Hampshire, which neighbors his home state of Massachusetts. Governors Brown and Casey continue to campaign in New Hampshire nonetheless.

Dukakis 57
Brown 18
Casey 15
Undecided 10


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Jerseyrules on June 24, 2012, 01:37:46 PM
Great update!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on July 01, 2012, 04:35:24 PM
February 18, 1992: Bob Dole Wins New Hampshire Primary!
Senator Bob Dole has won the New Hampshire Primary with 35% of the vote, a ten point win over the surprise second place winner, Senator Gramm, who earned 25%. Senator Lugar has fallen short of his goal an placed 3rd. Governor Alexander, who is campaigning in Nevada, has placed 4th. Senator Quayle has placed a disappointing last with only 4% of the vote.

Bob Dole 35
Phil Gramm 25
Richard Lugar 24
Lamar Alexander 12
Dan Quayle 4

February 18, 1992: President Dukakis Wins New Hampshire Primary!
President Dukakis has won the New Hampshire Primary with 63%, a large landslide win over his two primary rivals, Governors Brown and Casey.
Dukakis 63
Brown 20
Casey 17

February 21, 1992: Senators Lugar and Quayle Drop out, Endorse Dole.
Following lackluster performances in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, both Senators Lugar and Quayle have dropped out of the race for President, and have endorsed Senator Dole for President. It is now a three way battle, between the establishments’ Minority Leader Bob Dole and the two conservatives from the South: Senator Phil Gramm and Governor Lamar Alexander.

February 22, 1992: Dukakis Has Majority, But Casey Gaining.

President Dukakis continues to have the support of the majority of Democrats, but many conservative Democrats are beginning to coalesce around Governor Casey, the pro-life Governor of Pennsylvania. Casey’s campaign is hoping that the governor will be able to win several primaries in regions where Dukakis has the least amount of support, specifically the South and Rust Belt. Governor Brown has focused on a strongly progressive agenda, hoping to compete with Dukakis in the Northeast, Illinois, and California. Brown is also beginning to meet and campaign with Hispanic-American organizations, hoping to gain major support from them in the southwest.

Dukakis 55
Casey 25
Brown 15
Undecided 5

February 23, 1992: Dole Leads Nationally by 10 Points.
Bob Dole has retaken the lead nationally with 40%, after his strong win in New Hampshire and the exit of Senators Lugar and Quayle. Senator Gramm is second with 30% and Governor Alexander is 3rd with 25%. Many on the right are calling for either Senator Gramm or Governor Alexander to drop out, which would allow the other to defeat Dole, but neither is agreeing to do this.

Bob Dole 40
Phil Gramm 30
Lamar Alexander 25
Undecided 5


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on July 01, 2012, 05:25:53 PM
February 20, 1992: President Says NAFTA Proposal Must Protect American Workers.
President Dukakis today stated that the proposed North American Free Trade Agreement must have more protections for American workers, and that the plan overall is risky now at a time where unemployment is still not low.

February 23, 1992: President Dukakis and Senator Dole win Maine caucuses.
President Dukakis and Senator Dole have won the Maine caucuses, defeating their rivals by a large margin. No candidate was in the state though, leaving it to surrogates to campaign for them. The demographics of the state were clearly in favor of Dole and Dukakis, and what all campaigns are gearing for is the next states which are in less favorable territory. The next states: On February 25, South Dakota primary, on February 29, the Nevada Republican Caucuses, and on March 2, the Alaska Republican Caucuses. All campaigns are preparing for the first Super Tuesday, March 3rd.  On that day, there are the Colorado primary, Georgia primary, Idaho Democratic caucuses, Maryland primary, Minnesota Democratic caucuses, Utah Democratic caucuses, Washington Democratic caucuses.

Results from Maine:

Dukakis 66
Brown 20
Casey 14

Dole 62
Gramm 20
Alexander 18

February 25, 1992: Casey, Gramm Win South Dakota Primary!
In a result that some in the White House has feared, Governor Casey has won the South Dakota primary, defeating the incumbent President in a primary or caucus for the first time.

Casey 44
Dukakis 40
Brown 16

Senator Gramm has won the South Dakota Primary and confirming his position as Dole’s main conservative challenger. In a few days, the Nevada Caucus will take place, and since Governor Alexander has heavily campaigned in Nevada, it is seen as his last chance to win an early state.

Gramm 40
Dole 34
Alexander 26

February 29, 1992: Governor Alexander Wins Nevada Republican Caucus!
Governor Alexander has narrowly won the Nevada caucus, rewarding him after he has spent weeks campaigning and advertising. Senators Dole and Gramm, along with Alexander, were all within 10 points of each other and they are spinning the result as a tie.

Alexander 36
Dole 33
Gramm 31

March 2, 1992: Governor Alexander wins Alaska Republican caucuses.
Continuing his good week, Governor Alexander has won the Alaska caucuses. It is becoming evident that Alexander has appealed to the western U.S., possibly due to the sense that his campaign is positioning itself as more libertarian than Gramm or Dole.

Alexander 37
Dole 32
Gramm 31

March 2, 1992: State of the Primaries before Super Tuesday:
After his win in South Dakota, many Democrats fear that Governor Casey will be able to win at least several primaries due to his pro-life beliefs and moderate positions. Governor Brown has strong support with the far-left, the youth, and is gaining support among Hispanics and African Americans. His campaign has plainly stated that his base of support comes from the voters of “Jesse Jackson + JFK.” Whether this is enough to win any primary is too early to tell. The incumbent President Dukakis, who early on had decided on an “above the fray” campaign, is now being challenged by Brown and Casey to debate on television. Dukakis’ support comes from the Northeast, the upper Midwest, and unless Brown catches on, the West Coast. He also has strong support in Florida. Interestingly, he appears to have the strongest support in states that are most Democratic. It is the swing states and strongly Republican states that Casey has the advantage. Governor Brown is hoping to expand his support from California to other western states, and is also competing with Dukakis in the liberal states which have large African American populations.

Red: Dukakis
Brown: Casey
(
)

In the Republican primaries and caucuses, there is a general sense of chaos. Bob Dole is clearly the establishment candidate, but he has only won 2 out of the 6 last contests, both of which are in the far northeast of the country. His main conservative challenger appeared to be Senator Gramm, who won Iowa and South Dakota, but the recent wins in Nevada and Alaska by Governor Alexander seem to challenge that statement. Geography appears to be destiny in the upcoming states.

Red: Gramm
Blue: Dole
Green: Alexander
(
)
Taking place tomorrow are the Colorado primary, Georgia primary, Idaho Democratic caucuses, Maryland primary, Minnesota Democratic caucuses, Utah Democratic caucuses, Washington Democratic caucuses.

Democratic Races, Polls, and Analysis:
Colorado: TIE
This state is currently a tie, as it has ample amounts of establishment Democrats favorable to Dukakis, western and conservative Democrats favorable to Casey, and liberal and Hispanic Democrats favorable to Brown.

Dukakis 36
Casey 34
Brown 30
Undecided 5

Georgia: LEAN CASEY
Georgia is right in the Deep South, one of Dukakis’ least favorable areas, and Casey has a small lead in the polls here.

Casey 44
Dukakis 36
Brown 15
Undecided 5

Idaho: STRONG CASEY
This state is as conservative Democrat as you can get, and is expected to go for Governor Casey.

Casey 46
Dukakis 35
Brown 14
Undecided 5

Maryland: TIE
This is probably Governor Brown’s best chance for a win, as it has a high liberal and African American population.

Dukakis 42
Brown 38
Casey 15
Undecided 5

Minnesota: STRONG DUKAKIS
Dukakis has strong support in the upper Midwest, and is expected to win Minnesota easily.

Dukakis 51
Casey 26
Brown 18
Undecided 5

Utah: STRONG CASEY
Utah is another state with lots of conservative Democrats favorable to Casey.

Casey 47
Dukakis 32
Brown 16
Undecided 5

Washington: STRONG DUKAKIS
Washington is strongly for Dukakis; Brown has not caught on here despite it being a Western state.

Dukakis 50
Brown 27
Casey 18
Undecided 5

Here is the summary:
STRONG DUKAKIS: Minnesota, Washington.
TIE: Colorado, Maryland
LEAN CASEY: Georgia
STRONG CASEY: Idaho, Utah.

Republican Race, Polls, and Analysis:

Colorado: TIE
Colorado, as with the Democrats, is heavily balanced between all groups of Republicans. There is a slight advantage with the Christian right and libertarians and it is entirely possible that Dole could come in third.

Gramm 34
Alexander 33
Dole 28
Undecided 5

Georgia: STRONG GRAMM
This state is custom made for the southern Senator Gramm, who seems to have accentuated his “Southerness” more than former Tennessee Governor Alexander.

Gramm 45
Dole 32
Alexander 18
Undecided 5

Maryland: STRONG DOLE
Plenty of moderate Republicans to help out Dole here.

Dole 56
Gramm 20
Alexander 19
Undecided 5

Summary:
TIE: Colorado
STRONG GRAMM: Georgia
STRONG DOLE: Maryland

National Polls before Super Tuesday:

Dukakis 45
Casey 30
Brown 20
Undecided 5

Dole 35
Gramm 30
Alexander 30
Undecided 5


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on July 01, 2012, 05:44:38 PM
March 3, 1992: Super Tuesday for the Democrats: Dukakis wins 3, Casey wins 3, and Brown wins 1.
President Dukakis has won the states of Maryland, Minnesota and Washington. Governor Casey has won the states of Idaho, Georgia, and Utah. And Governor Brown has won his first state, the state of Colorado. Governor Brown’s campaign is surprised that they won Colorado instead of Maryland, and his western appeal may be greater than his appeal among African Americans.

Results:

Colorado:
Brown 36
Dukakis 34
Casey 30

Georgia:
Casey 51
Dukakis 36
Brown 13

Idaho:
Casey 52
Dukakis 33
Brown 14

Maryland:
Dukakis 45
Brown 40
Casey 15

Minnesota:
Dukakis 53
Casey 27
Brown 20

Utah:
Casey 54
Dukakis 30
Brown 16

Washington:
Dukakis 52
Brown 29
Casey 19

States won so far:
Dukakis: Red
Casey: Blue
Brown: Green

(
)

March 3, 1992: Super Tuesday for the Republicans: 1 Win Each for Alexander, Gramm and Dole.
The Three Candidates have each won a state, with Alexander winning Colorado, Gramm winning Georgia, and Dole winning Maryland.

Colorado:
Alexander 37
Gramm 35
Dole 28

Georgia:
Gramm 47
Dole 32
Alexander 21

Maryland:
Dole 60
Gramm 21
Alexander 19

States won so far:
Gramm: Red
Dole: Blue
Alexander: Green:

(
)


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on July 01, 2012, 06:41:28 PM
Great stuff. I was hoping that Brown could do better in the West, though it seems he's only managed to take one state. Hoping Casey makes Duke fight for his life. Meanwhile, for the GOP, I'm split between Dole and Gramm. Wonder how Alexander fares in the future.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Jerseyrules on July 01, 2012, 07:57:57 PM
More please ;)


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on July 01, 2012, 10:29:50 PM
March 7, 1992: Brown and Casey Split 3 Races, Alexander and Gramm as Well.
On the Democratic side, Arizona was won by Governor Brown, and South Carolina and Wyoming were won by Governor Casey. President Dukakis placed 2nd in each.

Arizona:
Brown 37
Dukakis 35
Casey 28

South Carolina:
Casey 52
Dukakis 31
Brown 17

Wyoming:
Casey 52
Dukakis 28
Brown 20

On the Republican side, Governor Alexander won Arizona and Wyoming, and Senator Gramm won South Carolina. Similarly to Dukakis, Dole placed 2nd in all three.

Arizona:
Alexander 40
Dole 33
Gramm 27

South Carolina
Gramm 45
Dole 28
Alexander 27

Wyoming
Alexander 44
Dole 30
Gramm 26

March 8, 1992: Brown wins Nevada Democratic caucuses.

Brown 40
Dukakis 32
Casey 28

March 9, 1992: Dukakis Barely Leads Casey Nationally.
President Dukakis is now barely leading Governor Casey nationally, with Brown a strong third. Several Democrats are now considering asking President Dukakis to decline a second term, in order to not have a divided party come Election Day.

Dukakis 40
Casey 35
Brown 20
Undecided 5

States won so far:
Dukakis: Red
Casey: Blue
Brown: Green

(
)

March 9, 1992: Dole Leads, Gramm and Alexander Tied.
Senators Dole leads the Republican field and Gramm and Alexander are tied for second. The campaigns of Gramm and Alexander are fiercely calling on the other to exit to race, so that Dole will face a single conservative challenger.

Dole 35
Alexander 30
Gramm 30
Undecided 5

States won so far:
Gramm: Red
Dole: Blue
Alexander: Green

(
)

March 9, 1992: Super Duper Tuesday Preview and Polls:

Democrats:

Delaware: TIE
Delaware has a small lead for Dukakis, and Brown does have the momentum to possibly pull off a win.

Dukakis 32
Brown 28
Casey 15
Undecided 5

Florida: TIE
This is the big state that all three Democrats are focused on. Whoever wins this state will get a big boost. It’s unlikely that Brown can win, but he could come in 2nd. If Casey wins, he could pass the President in polls nationally. If Dukakis wins, Casey may face calls that he is unable to win a swing state.

Dukakis 37
Casey 33
Brown 25
Undecided 5

Hawaii: LEAN DUKAKIS
Dukakis has a small lead ahead of Brown

Dukakis 43
Brown 37
Casey 15
Undecided 5

Louisiana: STRONG CASEY
The South is expected to go for Casey.

Casey 47
Dukakis 30
Brown 18
Undecided 5

Massachusetts: STRONG DUKAKIS
Dukakis’ home state is expected to give him a big win.

Dukakis 70
Casey 15
Brown 10
Undecided 5

Mississippi: STRONG CASEY
Southern state.

Casey 49
Dukakis 29
Brown 17
Undecided 5

Missouri: TIE
This is Vice President Gephardt’s state, and he has been campaigning in the state all week to encourage citizens to vote for President Dukakis.

Casey 38
Dukakis 37
Brown 20
Undecided 5

Oklahoma: STRONG CASEY
Lots of conservative Democrats here.

Casey 48
Dukakis 31
Brown 16
Undecided 5

Rhode Island: STRONG DUKAKIS
Neighbors Massachusetts.

Dukakis 62
Casey 18
Brown 15
Undecided 5

Tennessee: STRONG CASEY
More conservative Democrats.

Casey 48
Dukakis 32
Brown 15
Undecided 5

Texas: LEAN CASEY
This state doesn’t go for Casey as easily as it should, since Brown seems to have gained support with many Hispanics in the state. They could split the vote and give the win to Dukakis.

Casey 35
Dukakis 30
Brown 30
Undecided 5

Summary:
STRONG DUKAKIS: Mass, Rhode Island.
LEAN DUKAKIS: Hawaii
TIE: Delaware, Florida, Missouri
LEAN CASEY: Texas
STRONG CASEY: Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee

Dukakis needs to win Florida and hopefully Missouri. A loss of both to Casey would be disastrous. Casey needs to win Texas and Missouri, hopefully Florida. Brown needs to win at least 1 state, hopefully more than one, but Dukakis appears to be reabsorbing Brown’s liberal voters.

Republicans:

Florida: TIE
Just as Florida is the main event for the Democrats, so it is for the Republicans. In fact, this is the only main event for the Republicans, as in the rest of the races the result is a foregone conclusion. In Florida, there is a tie between Gramm and Dole, and Alexander is far behind.

Dole 36
Gramm 35
Alexander 24
Undecided 5

Louisiana: STRONG GRAMM
South is for Gramm.

Gramm 50
Dole 29
Alexander 16
Undecided 5

Massachusetts: STRONG DOLE
Northeast is for Dole

Dole 55
Gramm 24
Alexander 16
Undecided 5

Mississippi: STRONG GRAMM
South is for Gramm.

Gramm 48
Dole 29
Alexander 18
Undecided 5

Oklahoma: STRONG GRAMM
South is for Gramm.

Gramm 47
Dole 28
Alexander 20
Undecided 5

Rhode Island: STRONG DOLE
Northeast is for Dole

Dole 57
Gramm 23
Alexander 15
Undecided 5

Tennessee: STRONG ALEXANDER
Alexander’s home state.

Alexander 56
Dole 24
Gramm 15
Undecided 5

Texas: STRONG GRAMM
Gramm’s home state

Gramm 66
Dole 19
Alexander 10
Undecided 5

Summary:
STRONG DOLE: Mass, Rhode Island
STRONG GRAMM: Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas
STRONG ALEXANDER: Tennessee
TIE: Florida

Dole needs to win Florida, Gramm needs to win Florida, simple as that. Alexander is going to win his home state but it doesn’t look like he can compete with Gramm in the South.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on July 01, 2012, 10:57:09 PM
March 10, 1992: Super Duper Tuesday for Democrats: Dukakis Wins Florida and Missouri, and 4 Other States.
President Dukakis has won the important state of Florida, along with Vice President’s Gephardt’s home state of Missouri. Dukakis also won Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island. Governor Casey won the states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas. Governor Brown did not win any states and is being called on to exit the race. But in a defiant speech, Governor Brown stated that he would continue.

Delaware:
Dukakis 34
Brown 30
Casey 16

Florida:
Dukakis 38
Casey 35
Brown 27

Hawaii:
Dukakis 46
Brown 38
Casey 16

Louisiana:
Casey 50
Dukakis 32
Brown 18

Massachusetts:
Dukakis 76
Casey 14
Brown 10

Mississippi:
Casey 52
Dukakis 31
Brown 17

Missouri:
Dukakis 40
Casey 39
Brown 21

Oklahoma:
Casey 51
Dukakis 33
Brown 16

Rhode Island:
Dukakis 64
Casey 21
Brown 15

Tennessee:
Casey 50
Dukakis 35
Brown 15

Texas:
Casey 37
Dukakis 33
Brown 30

State of the Race for Democrats after Super Duper Tuesday:

Dukakis: Red
Casey: Blue
Brown: Green

(
)

March 10, 1992: Super Duper Tuesday for the Republicans: Dole Narrowly Wins Florida, Gramm Wins Most States, and Alexander Exits Race.
In an intense showdown in Florida, Senator Dole narrowly won the Florida Primary, along with Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Senator Gramm, although losing Florida, won more states: Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas. Former Governor Alexander managed to win only his home state of Tennessee, albeit with barely a majority. Alexander announced that he is exiting the race for President but did not name an endorsement for either Dole or Gramm.

Florida:
Dole 39
Gramm 37
Alexander 24

Louisiana:
Gramm 52
Dole 31
Alexander 17

Massachusetts:
Dole 60
Gramm 24
Alexander 16

Mississippi:
Gramm 52
Dole 30
Alexander 18

Oklahoma:
Gramm 50
Dole 28
Alexander 22

Rhode Island:
Dole 60
Gramm 25
Alexander 15

Tennessee:
Alexander 55
Dole 28
Gramm 17

Texas:
Gramm 68
Dole 21
Alexander 11

State of the Race for Republicans after Super Duper Tuesday:

Gramm: Red
Dole: Blue
Alexander: Green

(
)

March 12, 1992: Governor Brown Exits Race, Declines to Endorse Dukakis or Casey.
Governor Brown announced today that he is exiting the race for President. Brown was the first to challenge the President and was seen as some by a legitimate challenger, but he and Dukakis’s electoral base were too similar.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on July 02, 2012, 07:01:08 AM
Why is Dole unable to win any of the West? It's his home region and I'd expect him to dominate there. In '96, it was New Hampshire that tripped him up and in '88, the only states he won were places like MN, WY, and of course Kansas.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on July 02, 2012, 01:40:14 PM
Why is Dole unable to win any of the West? It's his home region and I'd expect him to dominate there. In '96, it was New Hampshire that tripped him up and in '88, the only states he won were places like MN, WY, and of course Kansas.

At the time, a lot of Republicans have Gramm fever. Dole not doing well in the west is mainly he's such a national figure for the GOP that he really doesn't have a "region" that strongly identifies with him. I base it more on the region than Dole though, since we see "the south" as more homogenous than "the west" or even the plains states.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: BritishDixie on July 02, 2012, 01:44:46 PM
Go Gramm!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: MorningInAmerica on July 02, 2012, 11:13:14 PM
Have to admit, you're doing a great job keeping this interesting with an incredibly dull Republican field. In particular, I'm a fan of the back stories about Congressional and Presidential undertakings.

I guess I support Gramm, though not strongly. And GO DUKAKIS - someone's got to support the President!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on July 03, 2012, 12:53:06 AM
March 13, 1992: Former Governor Alexander Endorses Senator Gramm.
Former Governor of Tennesse Alexander, bucking the trend most other Republicans, has endorsed Senator Gramm for President. “We need a strong conservative to turn this country around, and Senator Gramm is the man to do it.” Some on the right are calling for a Gramm/Alexander conservative Dream Team but the Gramm campaign has stated that it is far too early for such speculation.

March 14, 1992: Head to Head Polls Show Dole Stronger than Gramm, but Casey Even With President.
The first head to head polls since each nomination came down to a two man race has shown which matchups are most and least competitive. Dole is clearly more competitive against Dukakis and Casey than Gramm is, and this is driving many establishment Republicans to call on Gramm to end his campaign and endorse Dole. On the Democratic side, there are similar calls for Casey to end his campaign since he shows an insignificant advantage over Dukakis in head to head match ups. Although Casey’s favorable ratings are higher, he also faces doubts over whether he is qualified to be President.

Dole 50
Dukakis 42
Undecided 8

Dukakis 47
Gramm 43
Undecided 10

Dole 49
Casey 43
Undecided 10

Casey 46
Gramm 42
Undecided 12

March 14, 1992: Dole Leads Gramm by 8 Points.
Senator Bob Dole leads Senator Gramm by 8 points.
Dole 51
Gramm 43
Undecided 6

March 14, 1992: With Brown’s Exit, Dukakis Reclaims Majority.
After the exit of Governor Brown from the race, a majority of his former supporters have reverted to the President, giving the President a strong majority against Governor Bob Casey. The divide now is clearly ideological and geographical.
Dukakis 58
Casey 37
Undecided 5

March 15, 1992: Weapons of Mass Destruction Control Act Signed into Law.
Following the fall of the Soviet Union, the Weapons of Mass Destruction Control Act seeks to prevent attacks by weapons of mass destruction by limiting the access to such arms. This bill had rare support by both parties, who worry that such weapons could be accesses by rogue states and/or terrorists.

March 16, 1992: Casey Faces Big Test in Michigan Tomorrow.
Governor Casey has been campaigning in Michigan all week, hoping that with a head to head match up, he will be able to defeat the President. But polls show the President narrowly ahead in Michigan, and with a lead in Illinois. On the Republican side, Dole is safely ahead in Illinois, but is almost tied in Michigan. Senator Gramm has yet to win a primary in a large population state outside the south, and he needs to in order to seriously challenge Dole for the nomination.

Illinois
Dukakis 57
Casey 38
Undecided 5

Michigan
Dukakis 51
Casey 44
Undecided 5

Illinois
Dole 53
Gramm 42
Undecided 5

Michigan
Dole 48
Gramm 46
Undecided 6

March 17, 1992: Dole, Dukakis win Illinois and Michigan Primaries.
The establishment stuck back today in Illinois and Michigan, giving both Dole and Dukakis double wins. Dole barely defeated Gramm in the Michigan primary, a loss there would have been a big embarrassment to the campaign.

Michigan
Dukakis 54
Casey 46

Dole 51
Gramm 49

Illinois
Dukakis 60
Casey 40

Dole 53
Gramm 42


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on July 03, 2012, 01:05:57 AM
Go Dukakis!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on July 03, 2012, 06:02:24 AM
So, did Brown choose to run to Dukakis' left? In OTL 1992, as I recall, he ran to everyone's left on social issues, but also as sort of a conservative-populist on economic issues. How/why is that changed?


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: BlueDog Bimble on July 05, 2012, 08:12:29 AM
This is very interesting.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Jerseyrules on July 05, 2012, 10:19:27 AM
Go Casey and Gramm.

This may be off topic, but Is brown pro-life?


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on July 05, 2012, 05:07:36 PM
Go Casey and Gramm.

This may be off topic, but Is brown pro-life?

Highly doubt it. From what I know, he ran in his Presidential campaigns as generally fiscally conservative, socially liberal. Expanding, I remember reading that "he seemed to be both the farthest left and the farthest right in the primaries" in 1992.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on July 15, 2012, 01:44:46 AM
March 19, 1992: Casey Wins North Dakota Democratic caucuses.
Governor Casey has won the North Dakota Democratic caucuses with slim majority. Despite consolidating most of Governor Brown’s support, the President is still facing trouble with conservative Democrats who prefer Casey.

Casey 54
Dukakis 46

March 20, 1992: Former Vice President Bush Endorses Dole.
Former Vice President George H.W. Bush has endorsed Senator Dole for President. He is the most prominent figure to endorse Dole, and there are rumors that former President Ronald Reagan will endorse either Dole or Gramm soon.

March 24, 1992: Dole and Dukakis Win Connecticut primary.
Senator Dole and President Dukakis have both easily won the Connecticut Primary with a large majority.

Dole 65
Gramm 35

Dukakis 71
Casey 29

March 31, 1992: Dukakis and Dole Win Vermont caucuses.
Just as with Connecticut, both frontrunners did very well in this northeastern state.

Dole 67
Gramm 33

Dukakis 74
Casey 26

April 2, 1992: Casey wins Alaska Democratic Caucus; Gramm barely wins at North Dakota Republican convention.

Casey 54
Dukakis 46

Gramm 54
Dole 46

April 6, 1992: President Dukakis Gaining Further Support, Casey Down to 33 Percent.
President Dukakis is now beginning to gain enough support from Democrats that it appears very unlikely that Governor Casey will be able to catch him in delegates or votes cast. Tomorrow are three primaries for the Democrats. Kansas and New York are widely expected to go for Casey and Dukakis respectively. The real battle is in Wisconsin, where the President has a small lead over Casey.

Polls:
Kansas:
Casey 54
Dukakis 41
Undecided: 5

New York:
Dukakis 60
Casey 35
Undecided: 5

Wisconsin:
Dukakis 50
Casey 45
Undecided: 5

Nationally:
Dukakis 62
Casey 33
Undecided 5

State of the Race for the Democrats:
Dukakis: Red
Casey: Blue
Brown (OUT): Green
(
)

April 6, 1992: Dole Leads Gramm by Double Digits.
Senator Bob Dole is now the clear frontrunner against Senator Gramm, and is now leading Gramm by 11 points. Dole is expected to win his home state of Kansas, as well as New York and Hawaii easily. But in Minnesota and Wisconsin, the race is much closer.

Polls:
Hawaii
Dole 60
Gramm 35
Undecided 5

Kansas:
Dole 75
Gramm 20
Undecided 5

Minnesota:
Dole 48
Gramm 47
Undecided 5

New York:
Dole 65
Gramm 30
Undecided 5

Wisconsin:
Dole 50
Gramm 45
Undecided 5

Nationally:
Dole 53
Gramm 42
Undecided 5

State of the Race for the Republicans:
Dole: Blue
Gramm: Red
Alexander (OUT): Green

(
)


April 7: Super Tuesday 2: Dole Sweeps Contests, Dukakis Wins 2 out of 3.
Senator Dole has swept all 5 Republican contests, landing a major series of wins that make him very likely the Republican nominee. President Dukakis won the states of New York and Wisconsin, and Governor Casey won Kansas.

Hawaii caucuses
Dole 68
Gramm 32

Kansas primary
Dole 78
Gram 22

Casey 55
Dukakis 45

Minnesota primary (Republicans only),
Dole 51
Gramm 49

New York primary
Dole 67
Gramm 33

Dukakis 65
Casey 35

Wisconsin primary
Dole 53
Gramm 47

Dukakis 53
Casey 47

State of the Race for Democrats:
Dukakis: Red
Casey: Blue
Brown (OUT): Green
(
)

State of the Race for the Republicans:
Dole: Blue
Gramm: Red
Alexander (OUT): Green
(
)

April 8, 1992: Former President Reagan Endorses Dole, Gramm and Casey Face Calls to Exit.
Former President Ronald Reagan has formally endorsed Senator Dole, stating that he is the best choice to defeat President Dukakis this fall. Senator Gramm is ignoring calls to exit the race, claiming that there are still over 15 states left to vote. Although both Gramm and Governor Casey have won many states, they have won very few states with large populations.

April 10, 1992: Reduction in Military Spending Act Signed into Law.
The Reduction in Military Spending Act has been signed into law by President Dukakis. This bill decreases funding of many defense programs, and will increase the chances that next budget year will be the first in decades to have a surplus. The bill passes with a slim majority in both houses, with most of its opposition by conservatives, most notably Minority Whip Dick Cheney. The President countered, “The Cold War is over but Dick Cheney doesn’t seem to know it yet.”


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on July 15, 2012, 02:17:29 AM
April 11, 1992: Dukakis Wins Virginia Democratic caucuses.
In a major win for Dukakis, he has won the Virginia Democratic Caucuses, winning his first Southern state other than Florida. Governor Casey continues to lose support and endorsements, and it is unknown if he will continue through all the primaries. His home state of Pennsylvania does not vote until April 28.

Dukakis 52
Casey 48

April 14, 1992: Dole wins Missouri Republican caucuses.
Dole has won the Missouri Republican caucuses.

Dole 54
Gramm 46

April 27, 1992: Gramm wins Utah Republican caucuses.
By continuing to focus on social issues, Senator Gramm has easily won the Utah caucuses.

Gramm 58
Dole 42

April 28, 1992: Dole Clinches Nomination! Casey and Dole Win Pennsylvania Primary. Gramm is silent.
()
Senator Dole has clinched the Republican Nomination with his win in Pennsylvania today, ending a long race that has many twists and turns. “With your support, we can defeat President Dukakis and bring America back from liberalism and unemployment!”

Dole 61
Gramm 39

Governor Casey has won his home state with a strong win, but in his victory speech gave hints that he was likely to end his campaign soon. His campaign has been struggling financially with such few wins and last month news broke that they were officially in debt.

Casey 68
Dukakis 32

April 30, 1992: Casey Ends Campaign and Endorses President Dukakis.
Proudly claiming that his campaign gave voice to millions of unheard Democrats, Governor Casey stated that he hoped it would persuade the President to move to the center in order to win reelection. “We can’t have a President from the far left, and we definitely don’t want one from the far right. With our support and message, we can help President Dukakis win back the strong majority in the middle!”

May 1, 1992: Gramm Grudgingly Endorses Dole.
Appearing on a Sunday morning talk show, Senator Gramm gave lukewarm support to Senator Dole. “I guess I endorse him, I don’t have a choice.

May 5, 1992: Dole and Dukakis win Indiana primary but lose North Carolina primary.
In a sign that both the Democratic and Republican parties have not ended their respective family feuds, both Senator Dole and President Dukakis scored wins in the Indiana primary, but lost the North Carolina primaries. It is interesting that both parties are receiving “protest” votes from the conservative wings of each party.

Indiana
Dole 64
Gramm 36

Dukakis 66
Casey 34

North Carolina
Gramm 55
Dole 45

Casey 54
Dukakis 46

May 9, 1992: Dole wins Delaware Republican convention.

Dole 72
Gramm 28

May 12: Dole wins Nebraska primary, West Virginia primary. Dukakis Wins West Virginia and Casey wins Nebraska.

Nebraska
Dole 68
Gramm 32

Casey 53
Dukakis 47

West Virginia
Dole 72
Gramm 28

Dukakis 58
Casey 42

May 19: Dukakis wins Oregon primary, Dole wins Oregon and Washington primary.

Washington
Dole 74
Gramm 26

Oregon
Dukakis 76
Casey 24

Dole 72
Gramm 28

State of the Race for Democrats:
(
)


State of the Race for Republicans:
(
)


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on July 15, 2012, 02:24:55 AM
June 2, 1992: Final Map Results of 1992 Primaries.
Lol I got lazy and the races are pretty much over.

Democrats:
Dukakis: Red
Casey (OUT): Blue
Brown (OUT): Green

(
)

Republicans:
(
)


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on July 19, 2012, 01:23:38 AM
I just noticed that I made a major mistake in the timeline. I kept on calling Lamar Alexander the Senator from Tennessee, when in fact in 1992 he was the former Governor of Tennessee. I changed all the references but I'll keep the results. Sorry about that.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on July 19, 2012, 01:32:03 AM
June 3, 1992. Bob Dole Resigns Seat, Alan Simpson to be Minority Leader.
Citing his need to focus full time on the campaign trail, Senator Bob Dole has resigned his senate seat. “I’m going to the White House or I’m going home!” Senator Dole stated. Minority Whip Alan Simpson is in line to succeed him, and was successfully voted in as Minority Leader.

This is significant because in real life, Dole resigned in June 1996, and the Majority Whip (and next in line) at that time was Trent Lott, a strong social conservative. But because Dole resigns 4 years earlier, the Minority Leader at the time is… Alan Simpson… who just happens to be pro-choice and supportive of gay rights.

June 5, 1992: Republicans Split on Next Minority Whip.
Following the selection of Alan Simpson to be the Minority Leader, many Republicans are demanding that the Minority Whip be a strong conservative, to balance out pro-choice Alan Simpson. There are three Senators who are running for the position. John Chafee from Rhode Island, Thad Cochran from Mississippi, Don Nickles from Oklahoma. Chafee is the only pro-choice of the three, and Cochran and Nickles both have strong support from the Christian right.

June 7, 1992: John Chafee Selected as Minority Whip.

John Chafee of Rhode Island has been chosen as the next Republican Minority Whip, following a strong backing by Minority Leader Alan Simpson. The conservative vote was split between Cochran and Nickles and there is building frustration with social conservatives, who realize that the top two Senate Republicans leadership positions will be taken by pro-choice Republicans.

June 10, 1992: Expansion of Medicare for those under 18 Failed. Negotiations Begin. Republicans Want Middle Class Tax Cuts in Return.
The President and Congressional Democrats’ proposal to expand Medicare for those under 18 failed today in the House, with several conservative Democrats joining with most of the Republicans in voting no. Minority Senate Leader Alan Simpson has called for a compromise, where the Republicans will vote for the expansion of Medicare if the President will agree to middle class tax cuts. House Minority Leader Robert Michel agreed with that approach, claiming that all compromises should be on the table.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Jerseyrules on July 23, 2012, 12:24:51 AM
Interesting.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on July 23, 2012, 08:12:07 AM
()


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Del Tachi on July 24, 2012, 02:01:20 PM
Boo!  Cochran should have been whip!

He better become Republican leader or VP or something ITTL, he deserves it


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on July 25, 2012, 12:36:16 AM
June 12, 1992: Bob Dole’s VP Shortlist Rumors.
Now that Senator Dole has clinched the nomination, the big question is, who will he select to be his Vice President? It is apparent by many that Senator Dole still has a problem with many on the right, and following last week’s news that the top two Senate Republicans will be both pro-choice, there is pressure on Dole to select a strong social conservative. Several Republicans have threatened that they will walk out of the Republican Convention if the vice presidential pick is pro-choice. Governor Alexander is considered to be on the top of Dole’s list. Alexander and Dole famously got along in almost all debates, and there was none of the strong bickering as there was between Dole and Gramm. Senator Gramm, in contrast is not expected to be on the short list and has publically stated that he has no desire to be the vice presidential pick.

On the Short List:

Former Governor of Tennessee, Lamar Alexander, 52. Served 1979-1987.

Governor of Missouri, John Ashcroft, 50. Serving since 1985.

Governor of South Carolina, Carroll A. Campbell, Jr, 52. Serving since 1987.

Senator of Pennsylvania, John Heinz, 53. Serving since 1977.

Senator of Indiana, Richard Lugar, 60. Serving since 1977.

Senator of Arizona, John McCain, 56. Serving since 1987.

Governor of California Pete Wilson, 59. Serving since 1991, Also a former Senator from 1983-1991.

A real quote from Time Magazine: “Dole despised Kemp's economic theories but he felt Kemp-like tax cuts offered his best chance at electoral success.” So, since Dole is doing rather well in polls against Dukakis, his campaign does not even consider Kemp a possibility. In addition, because George Bush was never elected, Kemp never served as Housing Secretary, thus reducing his national prominence.


June 15, 1992: Senator Lugar Rules Himself Out of VP Speculation.
Senator Lugar has stated that he has refused to be considered as a vice presidential pick for Senator Dole, but adding that Dole has his full support in November’s election.

June 20, 1992: High Speed Rail Act Signed Into Law.
The High Speed Rail Act was signed into law, which will begin the construction of a high speed rail system in the United States. It is being compared to decision to build the interstate freeways of the 1950s. Critics claim that it will cost too much money, but many Senators were persuaded to vote for it since it would create many jobs.

June 22, 1992: Campbell and Ashcroft Eliminated from Consideration By Dole Campaign.
The Dole campaign has eliminated Governors Campbell and Ashcroft from consideration as the vice presidential pick. The overall message is that President Dukakis doesn’t have what it takes to be President, and that he was unprepared. With the selection of either of these two, that message is less likely to work. The final four choices: Lamar Alexander, John Heinz, John McCain, and Pete Wilson. The pros and cons of each:

Alexander:
Pro: From the South. Reliable conservative.
Con: Weak on foreign policy. Did not win many primaries.

Heinz:
Pro: Could deliver Pennsylvania. Possibly Ohio and Michigan as well. Strong on economic issues. Military service. 15 years of being a Senator.
Con: Wealthy background. Moderate. Pro-choice. Pro-environment.

McCain:
Pro: Reliably conservative. Could help in the southwest. War hero. Strong on campaign finance (authored McCain-Kerry bill). Great speech at 1988 Republican Convention. Considered a rising star. Double wounded veteran ticket a plus.
Con: Low Senate profile due to only being in the Senate since 1987 (5 years). Associated with Keating Scandal, but cleared of any wrongdoing. Previously opposed to MLK Jr Day.

Wilson:
Pro: Could possibly deliver California. A former senator and current Governor. Fiscal conservative.
Con: Pro-choice. Only a governor for a year. Has the charisma of a box.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on July 25, 2012, 07:06:18 AM
I like the idea of Alexander. He's a Governor so that gives him eight years of executive experience that picking a Senator wouldn't give. Also, he would help in states like Kentucky and West Virginia, IMO.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Del Tachi on July 25, 2012, 03:58:00 PM
Dole/Cochran 1992!!!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on July 25, 2012, 04:00:01 PM
The best bet for Dole of the final shortlist is Alexander, though I would reccomend Campbell.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Jerseyrules on July 25, 2012, 08:13:33 PM
I agree, but I want Wilson to win at some point, maybe 04


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: GLPman on July 26, 2012, 08:00:07 PM
McCain or Alexander. Wilson or Heinz would be a waste.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on July 27, 2012, 11:19:58 PM
July 10, 1992: Bob Dole Chooses John McCain as his Vice Presidential Pick!
()
With just a week until the Republican convention, Senator Bob Dole has selected Arizona Senator John McCain as his Vice Presidential pick. John McCain, 56, is in his first term as a Senator but has been in the public spotlight for decades, most notably as a prisoner of war during the Vietnam War. He is seen as a reliably conservative pick that brought several Republicans to tears in his 1988 convention speech. In addition, his McCain-Kerry campaign finance reform was widely supported by the public who were weary of the current perceived climate of corruption in American politics.

My first choice for Dole’s VP pick was going to be McCain, but for a while the choice was Pennsylvania Senator John Heinz. But when I did research I found out that Heinz was pro-choice, along with Pete Wilson and a bunch of other Republicans back then (oh how times have changed). So I reverted back to McCain. Alexander wasn't as much of a "rising star" and popular pick with Republicans the way McCain was. So there you have it, 1992 will be Dukakis/Gephardt vs Dole/McCain. It'll take a while to write out the details, but thanks for the support so far. Sneak peek: Between now and November, there will be votes on three major bills: Middle class tax cuts, the expansion of Medicare to all Americans under age 18, and NAFTA.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on July 28, 2012, 12:35:02 AM
Awesome! I await the battles over medicare expansion, and how the election will turn out. Do you intend to take this all the way up to 2012? :)


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on July 28, 2012, 12:48:49 AM
Awesome! I await the battles over medicare expansion, and how the election will turn out. Do you intend to take this all the way up to 2012? :)

I actually have it drafted up until 2004 so far, hopefully I can take it to 2012. The hardest part is that once you change the political climate in senate elections or governor elections, it factors later on because politicians who we consider famous in real life are not in this timeline, or vice versa. For example, in my timeline's 1990 the Republican Clayton Williams beat Ann Richards in the Texas Governor's election because it was a Republican favored year due to a President Dukakis. Which means in 1994 Williams is running for reelection... which means George Bush is not elected in 1994 as Governor of Texas. It's stuff like that's interesting, but I have to keep track of it all.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on July 28, 2012, 01:03:36 AM
Awesome! I await the battles over medicare expansion, and how the election will turn out. Do you intend to take this all the way up to 2012? :)

I actually have it drafted up until 2004 so far, hopefully I can take it to 2012. The hardest part is that once you change the political climate in senate elections or governor elections, it factors later on because politicians who we consider famous in real life are not in this timeline, or vice versa. For example, in my timeline's 1990 the Republican Clayton Williams beat Ann Richards in the Texas Governor's election because it was a Republican favored year due to a President Dukakis. Which means in 1994 Williams is running for reelection... which means George Bush is not elected in 1994 as Governor of Texas. It's stuff like that's interesting, but I have to keep track of it all.
I have that problem in my timelines too. Thats why I write out every single Gubernatorial and Senate race, which (at least so far) has taken up 50% of my timeline :P


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on July 28, 2012, 08:45:30 AM

Whoa! I didn't know a picture of the two even existed! Let alone one that seems to fit the time period perfectly (in terms of how different McCain loooks).


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 04, 2012, 12:01:32 AM
July 14, 1992: Goldwater Says Gay Rights are Conservative.
When interviewed at the Republican National Convention, former Presidential candidate Barry Goldwater raised some eyebrows when he stated that gay rights are inherently conservative, and the Republican Party should not oppose them. "The big thing is to make this country, along with every other country in the world with a few exceptions, quit discriminating against people just because they're gay," Goldwater asserted. "You don't have to agree with it, but they have a constitutional right to be gay. And that's what brings me into it."

The above was taken verbatim from a real life Barry Goldwater quote.

July 16, 1992: Senator Dole Accepts Republican Nomination.
()
Senator Bob Dole has accepted the nomination of the Republican Party for President. He touched on several issues, weaving his autobiography with his plans for the Presidency. He began his life story by acknowledging his age, 69, which would make him the second oldest person to be elected if he is this November.

“Now I know that in some quarters I may not -- may be expected to run from this, the truth of this, but I was born in 1923, and facts are better than dreams and good presidents and good candidates don't run from the truth.”

He hinted that this made him a more moral person to hold the Presidency, since it was not his goal until later in life. Some columnists read into this as a sign that Dole may not run for a second term if elected.

“I do not need the presidency to make or refresh my soul. That false hope I will gladly leave to others. For greatness lies not in what office you hold, but on how honest you are in how you face adversity and in your willingness to stand fast in hard places. Age has its advantages.”

Next, he dismissed those who were wary of his legislative battles with the President and also those who felt he was not conservative enough.

“To those who believe that I am too combative, I say if I am combative, it is for love of country. It is to uphold a standard that I was I was born and bred to defend. And to those who believe that I live and breathe compromise, I say that in politics honorable compromise is no sin. It is what protects us from absolutism and intolerance.”

On taxes, he clearly stated the differences between himself and the President.

“The President and his party brought us the biggest tax increase in the history of America. And we are the party of lower taxes -- we are the party of lower taxes and greater opportunity.”

When discussing social security, he surprisingly acknowledged the role of government in helping others, if only in the time of need. This fragment was also disappointing to many conservative commentators.

“And I have learned in my own life, from my own experience that not every man, woman or child can make it on their own. And that in time of need, the bridge between failure and success can be the government itself. And given all that I have experienced, I shall always remember those in need. That is why I helped to save Social Security in 1983 and that is why I will be, I will be the president who preserves and strengthens and protects Medicare for America's senior citizens.”

In an attempt to broaden his electoral base, Dole clearly stated that the Republican Party is a voice of many and not the few.

“The Republican Party is broad and inclusive. It represents many streams of opinion and many points of view. But if there's anyone who has mistakenly attached themselves to our party in the belief that we are not open to citizens of every race and religion, then let me remind you, tonight this hall belongs to the Party of Lincoln. And the exits which are clearly marked are for you to walk out of as I stand this ground without compromise.”

On crime, Senator Dole proposed a tough on crime stance, combined with keeping guns away from criminals. It was unclear whether Dole was proposing new gun control laws.

“We are a nation paralyzed by crime. And it's time to end that in America. And to do so, I mean to attack the root cause of crime -- criminals, criminals, violent criminals. And as our many and voracious criminals go to bed tonight, at say, 6:00 in the morning, they had better pray that I lose this election because if I win, the lives of violent criminals are going to be hell. During the Reagan administration -- during the Reagan administration we abolished parole at the federal level. In the Dole administration we will work with the nation's governors to abolish parole for violent criminals all across America. And with my national instant check initiative, we will keep all guns out of the hands of criminals.”

Finally, on foreign policy, Dole blasted the President for reducing the size of the military following the end of the Cold War, and promised quick action if terrorists attacked Americans.

“It must be said because of misguided priorities there have been massive cuts in funding for our national security. I believe President Dukakis has failed to adequately provide for our defense. And for whatever reason the neglect, it is irresponsible. I ask that you consider these crystal-clear differences. He believes that it is acceptable to ask our military forces to more with less. I do not.
And on my first day in office, I will put terrorists on notice. If you harm one American, you harm all Americans. And America will pursue you to the ends of the earth. In short, don't mess with us if you're not prepared to suffer the consequences.”

At the conclusion of his speech, Dole gave an optimistic tone, attempting to ask Americans to change Washington at a time when so many feel it’s on the wrong path.

“Optimism is in our blood. I know this as few others can. There once was a time when I doubted the future. But I have learned as many of you have learned that obstacles can be overcome. And I have unlimited confidence in the wisdom of our people and the future of our country. Tonight, I stand before you tested by adversity, made sensitive by hardship, a fighter by principle, and the most optimistic man in America. My life is proof that America is a land without limits. And with my feet on the ground and my heart filled with hope, I put my faith in you and in the God who loves us all. For I am convinced that America's best days are yet to come. May God bless you. And may God bless America. Thank you very much.”

Dole’s speech won great reviews among the mainstream media, in that he successful laid out the basis for why he should be President and what he would do. Within conservative circles, the response was at best lukewarm. Former Presidential candidate Phil Gramm stated, “Most of that speech didn’t sound like it came from a conservative at all.”

Note: The previous quotes from Dole’s speech were not created by me. They are actual quotes from his real life 1996 convention speech. The only thing I changed was a reference to President Clinton into a reference to President Dukakis.

July 20, 1992: Dole Leads Dukakis by Double Digits.
After his selection of John McCain as his running mate and the conclusion of the Republican convention, Senator Bob Dole leads the President by 12 points.

Dole 54
Dukakis 42
Undecided 8


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on August 04, 2012, 08:29:10 AM
Go Dole!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: NHI on August 04, 2012, 11:21:50 AM
Go Dole!!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: mondale84 on August 04, 2012, 05:02:56 PM
Come on Duke, you can do it!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 05, 2012, 12:52:12 AM
July 24, 1992: Middle Class Tax Cuts Pass House and Senate, Albeit With Conservative Grumbling.
The tax cuts on the middle class have passed both the House and the Senate, with enough conservative Democrats crossing over to ensure its passage. The bill is popular with the American people by a large margin, and there is heavy pressure by some Democrats for the President to sign the bill. Behind the scenes, Minority Senate Leader Alan Simpson, Minority Senate Whip Lincoln Chafee, Minority Leader Robert Michel, and Minority Whip Dick Cheney all decided against introducing a bill that would include both middle and upper class tax cuts. They decided that by having a bill that would solely contain tax cuts for the middle class, they would outflank the President by claiming that the Republican Party was the true party of the middle class. Although most Republican Senators strongly supported this plan, as they recognized that many Democrats would cross over and ensure its passage, this plan had a slim majority of support within the Republican House caucus. Many Republican House members were publicly voicing their disapproval with the plan, saying that they could have had large upper class tax cuts attached to the bill as well. But Minority Senate Leader Alan Simpson responded that it was not wise to reduce upper level taxes at a level that some House Republicans wanted, since it would increase the chances of a budget deficit, which was “not a conservative position at all.” The strongest opposition came from Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich, who if the Republican achieves a majority this November, is rumored to run for House Majority Whip.

August 5, 1992: Dukakis Reluctantly Signs Middle Class Tax Cuts, Says That He is a “Middle Class President.”
President Dukakis reversed his early position on the middle class tax cuts, citing a need to give middle class Americans. It is clear that he was heavily pressured to do so by his party and even members of his own campaign team, following the last poll numbers that had the President down by double digits. Privately, he is outraged that he was outflanked by Congress, and is determined to double down on his political positions. The Republican Leaders in Congress are ecstatic that they were able to pressure the President to sign this law, while the Democratic Leaders are

August 10, 1992: Dukakis Campaign Will Challenge Dole’s Capability Instead of His Positions.
The Dukakis campaign, has decided against painting Bob Dole as a conservative extremist, since very few Americans think of him as a conservative anyway. Instead, they plan to frame Bob Dole as someone who does not have the sufficient capability to be President, and that President Dukakis has been a good President. Most polls show support for a strong majority of the President’s plans, including the once controversial health care law. But on a personal level, the President’s favorability is low. In addition, the Democratic Party has a historically low approval rating. Early ads are citing the President’s favorable policies and plans, with many neglecting to include that he is a Democrat.

August 19, 1992: Casey Endorses Dukakis, Echoes of Carter and Kennedy.

Former presidential candidate Bob Casey gave his speech at the convention today, endorsing the President but only occasionally mentioning him in his speech. It was fairly praised speech that was remarkably similar to Dole’s, in that it mentioned the need for his party to accept a wide range of views and compromise. There seemed to be mild hints throughout the speech that the President should be less liberal and willing to work with Congress as opposed to challenging it.

August 20, 1992: President Dukakis Accepts Nomination.
President Dukakis accepted the nomination of his party for a second term as President, vowing to fight on for Americans and asking them to continue his party’s efforts to help them. The President spoke of a list of his accomplishments, reminding Americans that he had avoided a war in Panama and Iraq, and that health care was finally in the reach of all Americans through a health insurance mandate. The latter third of his speech was devoted to the future, and his commitment to the poor and working class. His speech was well received by pundits, in that the President clearly stated his accomplishments, his positions, and his goals.

August 24, 1992: Dukakis Gains on Dole.
In the first poll after the Democratic convention, the President has lowered the gap between himself and Dole to 6 points.

Dole/McCain 50
Dukakis/Gephardt 44
Undecided 6

August 28, 1992: Dole Shows Discomfort With Abortion Issue.
In a surprising interview that revealed his discomfort with social issues, Senator Dole gave ambiguous answers over his personal position on abortion. He also stated that he would allow abortions in cases of rape, incest or when the life of the woman is in danger.

When asked if he believed abortion is murder, Dole said it is immoral and wrong. Asked again if he believes it is murder, Dole said: "I don't know. It's obviously taking a life." He said he does not believe women have a constitutional right to abortion, though he would make three exceptions, for women who have been raped, are victims of incest or whose lives are in danger. When asked why he would allow exceptions for rape incest if he believes abortion is the taking of a life, Dole said, "That's true. But I think also, as true as that may be, there's also political realities."

The previous quote is from a real life 1996 Bob Dole interview.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Jerseyrules on August 05, 2012, 05:11:52 PM


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 11, 2012, 11:20:30 PM
September 1, 1992: Democrats and Republicans Negotiate Expansion of Medicare and NAFTA.
Congressional Democrats and Republicans have begun to negotiate terms of the last two major bills to be decided on before the November election. The first is the expansion of Medicare to all Americans under 18, a progressive dream for decades, is unlikely to win passage in the Congress due to its lack of enough support by moderates. Some moderate Democrats have proposed a bill which would expand Medicare to those under 18, but only to those who are below a certain income level. The President is opposed to this plan, stating that “All young Americans need Medicare, and we can’t afford to not cover them.” The second bill is NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement. This bill is notable in that it has strong support with moderates, but is opposed by most liberals for its possible effects on manufacturing jobs and some conservatives who see it as a loss of American sovereignty. President Dukakis has claimed that he will veto the bill if it is brought to his desk, and it is possible that Democrats may attempt to override his veto. Because the Democrats control both houses of Congress, they have a strong effect on which specific legislation can be voted on, which gives that party and advantage. But because of the narrow majority, in addition to the strong number of Democratic moderates, Democratic conservatives, and even the moderate Republicans, it is difficult to see what the bills will exactly contain, if they will be voted on, and if they even will pass Congress. The President is steadfast in his positions, and in the first series of negotiations, he was not invited to attend.

September 6, 1992: Expansion of Medicare to be voted on Tomorrow.
The leaders in Congress have agreed to vote on the expansion of Medicare tomorrow, introducing a bill which is exactly like the President’s proposal, which many believe was done to prove that the President’s plan does not have enough approval in Congress.

September 7, 1992: Medicare Expansion Fails.

The vote to expand Medicare failed in the House today, with many Democrats feeling ambivalent about its failure to pass. “The President declined to compromise, and this is what happens” House Speaker Tom Foley says. Tomorrow an alternative proposal, which expands Medicare to those below a certain income, will be introduced in the House. President Dukakis is opposed to this new plan, but it is unlikely that he will veto it.

September 8, 1992: Second Medicare Expansion Fails.
The Second Medicare expansion has failed to pass the House, although it did receive more votes than its predecessor. Congressional Democrats say they do not plan to introduce any further legislation on the subject, and the President has publically blasted Congress for this.

September 10, 1992: Dole Leads Dukakis, Electoral Map Preview.
Dole 52
Dukakis 43
Undecided 5

In the current electoral map, there is a strong advantage for Dole. He has strong support in the South and Plains states, which was expected, but has also gained in Appalachia and the Midwest. Dukakis support is based in the northeast, upper Midwest, and Pacific Northwest. The map is clearly not in Dukakis’ favor, as he must win many of the toss up states to win election, and he absolutely has to win California.

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Currently, with Strong and Lean Dole states, there are 236 electoral votes.
With Strong and Lean Dukakis states, there are 145 electoral votes.
And toss up states are 157 electoral votes.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on August 11, 2012, 11:36:21 PM
Great update! Dukakis is in a bind, and if he wins, he will have to govern more moderately. I have really enjoyed the timeline, I can't wait for the election :)


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: GLPman on August 11, 2012, 11:45:00 PM
Looks like Dole is gonna win it, unless you have some surprises up your sleeve.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 12, 2012, 10:19:41 PM
September 18, 1992: NAFTA Passes Congress.
The North American Free Trade Agreement has passed Congress. Polls on NAFTA have shown a that a large number of Americans have yet to have an opinion on the bill, although those on the left and right are more likely to be opposed to it than moderates.
In favor: 30
Opposed: 25
Undecided: 45

September 19, 1992: President Dukakis Vetoes NAFTA, Will Congress Override?

The President has decided to veto the NAFTA bill, stating that he will not risk losing American jobs as a result of this bill. Already, television ads have the President “standing up” for American jobs, and with the latest good news that the unemployment has decreased, this looks like a good day for the President.

In the Democratically-controlled Congress, they are in a bind. The President of their party has clearly stated that he is opposed to this bill. The opinion of the Congress is low, and if moderate Democrats follow the President, many will claim that they are following the President’s lead and not that of their constituents. Will enough Democrats in Congress ignore their constituents and follow the President? Or will they ignore the President and override his veto?

September 20, 1992: Congress Overrides NAFTA Veto.
Congress has overridden the NAFTA veto. Combined with the failure of his Medicare expansion to pass Congress, the President is unable to control the agenda. He is distancing himself from Congress, even blasting them in some speeches. Congressional Democrats are even running against the President in some ads, stating that they “took a stand” against him. It is clear that there are two campaigns running. The President is running for reelection against Bob Dole, and the Democrats and Republicans in Congress are running against the President’s ineffectiveness.
The effect of this is not a lowering of Dukakis’ support in the polls, but rather he is becoming politically irrelevant. Some Democrats have privately said to others that they are privately considering voting for Bob Dole.

In real life, the House of Representatives approved NAFTA on November 17, 1993, 234-200. The agreement's supporters included 132 Republicans and 102 Democrats. NAFTA passed the Senate 61-38. But because my timeline’s 1992 House and Senate makeup is less liberal than real life’s 1993, Congress was able to override the Dukakis veto.


September 30, 1992: Odds of Republicans Gaining House Strong, but Senate slim.
With the Democrats in the House controlling 232 seats, and the Republicans have 203, the Republicans only need 15 seats to reach the majority of 218. Most analysts believe that this is possible and has an 80% of happening.

In the Senate however, the Democrats control 54 seats, the Republicans control 45, and Senator David Duke is the lone Independent. Complicated the situation is Senator Duke, who both parties have claimed that they will not caucus with him in order to secure a Senate majority. So because a tie is unlikely because of this, whichever party has 50 votes will have control of the Senate. Therefore, the Republicans need to gain 5 seats in order to gain control. Analysts believe that the Republicans have only a 20% chance of gaining control.

Dem 54
Gop 45
Ind 1

October 11, 1992: First Presidential Debate Poll: Dukakis 45 Dole 35 Undecided 20.
In the first Presidential debate, the President clearly laid out his accomplishments and his plans, hoping that their popularity would transfer over to a vote for him. In contrast, Dole attempted to link the President and Congress together, stating that the Democratic Party has lost the respect of the people because of its lax attitude on corruption. Although Dole attempted to criticize the President, when asked about his own plan in detail, his answers were at times vague and repetitive. In a small gaffe, Dole asked the interviewer to repeat a question, which left many viewers suspicious about handling the Presidency at his age.

October 13, 1992: Vice Presidential Debate Poll: McCain 55 Gephardt 25 Undecided 20.
Senator McCain was quite effective in his debate with Vice President Gephardt, promising that with a President Dole, corruption will end and progress will return. In addition, he stated that the President’s reduction in defense spending left the United States vulnerable to a foreign attack. In response, the Vice President in a widely panned statement against the former prisoner of war stated that “John McCain does not understand how our military works.” Senator McCain responded with a brief but eloquent retelling of his history in the military, and how he viewed any attack on any veteran as a serious insult. It was very clear in this debate that they personally do not get along.

October 14, 1992: Dukakis Gains Support after Debate.
Following his first debate in which he was judged to perform rather well, Dukakis has gained support in the latest poll and is now six points behind Dole, as compared with nine points last month.

Dole 51
Dukakis 45
Undecided 4

October 15, 1992: Second Presidential Debate Poll: Dukakis 45 Dole 40 Undecided 15.
In his second debate, Dole was more at ease explaining his own plans and was widely considered to perform evenly with the President.

October 19, 1992: Third President Debate Poll: Dole 45 Dukakis 40 Undecided 15.
In the last debate, Bob Dole had the slight advantage with viewers, as he was able to link the President’s ineffectiveness with the corruption of the Democrats. Dukakis, in contrast, appeared to repeat many of the same lines he spoke in the second debate.

October 25, 1992: After Final Debates, Dukakis Closing In on Dole.
After the last debates, the President has finally caught up with Dole, only 4 points behind now.
Dole 50
Dukakis 46
Undecided 4

November 1, 1992: Final Electoral Map Polls:
The final set of polling shows an uphill battle for Dukakis, but less so since he finally has California moved from toss up to lean Dukakis. The race is closer than it was several months ago, mainly due to the improving economy and Dole’s occasional lackluster performance in the debates.
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Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on August 12, 2012, 10:32:55 PM
In the words of a great bumper sticker, "Bob Dole. President."

Great round of updates in all, though I'm kinda surprised by the NAFTA veto (though I know little of Dukakis, so). Should Dole win, it'd be nice to see him take MI or PA.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on August 12, 2012, 10:53:25 PM
I am excited for this election, I have a feeling it will be nailbittingly close :)


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: GLPman on August 13, 2012, 10:46:19 AM
The election definitely looks like it will be close. I hope Dole can pull out a victory over the Duke.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on August 13, 2012, 10:26:05 PM
Dole looks favored. Dukakis can only lose one or two swing states. Florida would give him some leeway but that seems to be quite a bit of a stretch, as I think the older voters will flock to Dole/McCain because of the military ethos they command.

Great timeline!


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 13, 2012, 10:37:54 PM
Thanks for the support guys. I'm going to attempt to do a fake election program tomorrow (8/14) at 7pm Pacific Time. It'll go by fast but I think it'll be more entertaining to see it live and you refreshing your page, then just having the next post say "Blank Wins!"


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on August 13, 2012, 10:49:49 PM
Sounds good :)


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: sentinel on August 14, 2012, 07:31:53 AM
Spoiler - Blank wins :( I always felt we had better candidates than Senator Blank of Ambiguous State


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 14, 2012, 09:04:14 PM
6:30pm November 3, 1992
ELECTION 1992
“Hello and welcome to Election 1992 coverage. I’ll be your host, Retro Mike, here with Patty Flatbottom and together we will see if President Dukakis wins reelection, or if our next President will be Bob Dole.”
“The first polls to close were an hour ago, but were only part of Indiana and Kentucky. Now all of Indiana and Kentucky will have ceased to vote in 30 minutes, along with Virginia, Vermont, South Carolina, and Georgia.”
“Please note that a majority of Florida will have stopped voting, but up in the panhandle they won’t, so Florida will not be in until later.”
“Here is our election map, a red state will indicate a vote for Dukakis, and a blue will be for Dole. States that are too close to call will be green, and states that are still voting will be gray.”
“Please remember to stay tuned (refresh your page) until midnight, (midnight timeline time) as we will wrap up and have full results of today’s elections, Including which party will control the House and the Senate.”
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Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 14, 2012, 09:05:53 PM
7:00 November 3, 1992
FIRST STATES IN, 4 FOR DOLE, 1 FOR DUKAKIS
“The first results are in, and we can confirm that Indiana, Virginia, South Carolina and Georgia will all vote for Dole! We can also confirm that Vermont has gone for Dukakis, and Kentucky is too close to call.”
“Most of this was expected, wasn’t it?”
“It was, the South and Indiana are definitely not Dukakis’ territory.”
“But Kentucky is interesting. It was thought it might go for Dole quick in the event of a Dole landslide.”
“Well Kentucky is an interesting state. It’s culturally conservative, which would give Dole and advantage, but it has a lot of Democrats.”
“I guess the question is, how loyal will these conservative Democrats be”
“So, right now Dole has 46 electoral votes, and Dukakis has 3. But it’s still early folks.”

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Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 14, 2012, 09:20:41 PM
7:30 November 3, 1992
OHIO, KENTUCKY, AND WEST VIRGINIA TOO CLOSE TO CALL
“Ohio and West Virginia are in and they are.. too close to call!”
“Yea this is the same story as it was with Kentucky, they are culturally conservative but have lots of Democrats in them”
“But remember, most of these early votes are coming from the cities, there are still a lot of rural votes to come in and they will not favor Dukakis.”

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Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 14, 2012, 09:37:24 PM
8:00 November 3, 1992
NORTHEAST IS GOING DUKAKIS, SOUTH GOING DOLE, FLORIDA AND PENNSYLVANIA TOO CLOSE.
“A bunch of states coming in now and a bunch of projections”
“Massachusetts, the President’s home state will go for him, as will Connecticut, DC, and Delaware!”
“Senator Dole has won Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Mississippi.”
“Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maine, New Hampshire, Maryland, Michigan, Illinois, and Missouri are all too close to call.”
“Florida has all its votes in but is also too close to call.”
“Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia are still too close to call.”
“No wait!”
“No?”
“No! I’m getting word; yes we can now confirm that Kentucky has voted for Dole.”
“Alright, you heard it, Kentucky has gone for Dole.”
“Okay, that means Dole has 89 electoral votes, and the President has 29.”

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Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 14, 2012, 09:55:06 PM
8:15 November 3, 1992
FLORIDA TO DOLE!
“Okay, we can now confirm that Florida, Florida has gone for Dole!”
“That was surprising that it went to Dole before Ohio, all those seniors and veterans must have really turned out”
“And now we can also confirm that Maryland and Maine have gone for Dukakis!”
“Alright, that’s 114 electoral votes for Dole; 43 for Dukakis.”
“It’s not looking good for Dukakis is it?”
“Well he’s doing badly in the South, but better in the Appalachian area than expected. We’re not going to be seeing a landslide for either candidate though.”

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Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 14, 2012, 10:00:48 PM
8:30 November 3, 1992
DOLE GAINS TWO MORE STATES.
“North Carolina and Arkansas have both voted for Dole as expected.”
“Dole now has 134 electoral votes”

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Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 14, 2012, 10:14:40 PM
9:00 November 3, 1992
WEST AND SOUTH GO FOR DOLE, NORTHEAST AND UPPER MIDWEST GOES FOR DUKAKIS.
“More states coming in, New York with its 33 electoral votes will go to Dukakis, as will Rhode Island, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.”
“Also, we can confirm that New Jersey has also gone for Dukakis.”
“Louisiana, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, South Dakota, and Wyoming will all go to Senator Dole”

DOLE WINS OHIO!

“Add Ohio to that list Patty!”
“Yes, Ohio has also gone to Dole.”
“Wow, Dole already has 234 electoral votes, how many does Dukakis have?”
“116.”
“Wow. That’s going to be a tough climb.”
“Yea, but remember California is likely to go for Dukakis and he may catch up in the west coast.”
“We can also confirm that Republican Jim Kolbe will be elected to John McCain’s Senate seat, and Pat Roberts will be elected to Bob Dole’s Senate seat.”

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Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 14, 2012, 10:17:21 PM
9:15 November 3, 1992
MISSOURI GOES FOR DOLE!
“Okay we are now confirming that Missouri, the home state of Vice President Gephardt has gone to Dole!”
“And West Virginia as well! The conservative Democrats are not, I repeat are not holding for Dukakis. They have just put Dole up to 250 electoral votes!”

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Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 14, 2012, 10:18:39 PM
9:30 November 3, 1992
REPUBLICANS CAPTURE HOUSE!
“We can now project that the Republican Party has captured the House of Representatives!”
“Wow, it’s been years since they held that chamber!”
“Decades!”
“Robert Michel will be the next Speaker of the House, and Dick Cheney will be the Majority Leader.”
“We should be getting a report late this night about the fate of the Senate.”
“So, no matter who becomes President, they will have to deal with a Republican House of Representatives.”
“That’s right Mike, and American politics will take a definite shift to the right.”

DUKAKIS WINS ILLINOIS!

 “We can also confirm that Illinois and New Hampshire will go to Dukakis, bringing him up to 142 electoral votes.”

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Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 14, 2012, 10:22:50 PM
10:00 November 3, 1992
DOLE WINS MOUNTAIN STATES, ONLY 4 EV FROM VICTORY
“A few more states coming in.”
“We can now confirm that Dole has won Montana, Utah, Nevada, North Dakota, and he is now only 4 electoral votes away from becoming the next President of the United States.”
“Iowa is too close to call at this point, along with Pennsylvania and Michigan.”
“A strong map for Dole, isn’t it?”
“Yes it did, all those moderate Democrats who voted for Casey in the primary are not holding out for the President.”

Dole: 266
Dukakis: 142
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Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 14, 2012, 10:24:24 PM
10:25 November 3, 1992
DOLE ELECTED PRESIDENT!
“We are now ready to make a big projection. Bob Dole has been elected as the next President of the United States!”
“Yes, he has won Michigan and so he is now above the 270 electoral votes necessary to be President!”
“President Dukakis has been defeated for reelection. Bob Dole will be the next President, and John McCain the next Vice President.”
“Stay tuned for the results of the rest of the states, as well as who will control the Senate.”

()
Dole: 283
Dukakis: 142
Undecided: 30
Yet to Report: 83
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Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 14, 2012, 10:25:44 PM
11:00 November 3, 1992
DUKAKIS WINS WEST COAST AND PENNSYLVANIA, CONTROL OF SENATE UNCERTAIN
“The last states coming in. We can confirm that California, Oregon, Hawaii, Pennsylvania, and Washington will go for Dukakis, bringing his total to 241.”
“Dole will win Idaho and Alaska, his total is 290.”
“Well now only the state of Iowa is left, although it isn’t relevant now.”
“It was at the beginning of this year though.”
“Oh yes. It was the state that gave Dukakis a scare, showing him that he didn’t have enough support with conservative and moderate Democrats. He had all year to move to the center, but only doubled down on his own positions.”
“And with Dole, he came in third in Iowa!”
“He did, didn’t he! He also had problems on his conservative side, similar to Dukakis’ problems with conservatives!”
“It’s interesting that although conservatives were the most angry, they had candidates in each party who were not.”
“I think the difference is that Dukakis was a liberal and did not change his principles, and Dole was moderate and also did not change his principles. But the reason Dole won was because America is a moderate country, and after all the news of Democrats being corrupt, America wanted a Republican. Not a conservative Republican, but a moderate Republican.”
“Indeed, and we should have the result of Iowa soon, as well as control of the Senate, which is looking more uncertain by the hour.”

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Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 14, 2012, 10:26:56 PM
11:30 November 3, 1992
SPEAKER FOLEY LOSES SEAT! ONLY IOWA LEFT UNDECIDED
“We can now confirm that Speaker Foley, or should I say former Speaker Tom Foley has lost his race for reelection.”
“Wow. So it looks like Majority Leader, I’m sorry, former Majority Leader William Gray will likely be the next Minority Leader of the House.”
“I think, yes, that would make him the first African-American to lead either party in Congress.”
“Hmm. Interesting.”
“The House numbers are in and, before the election, the Democrats had 232 seats, and the Republicans had 203. But now, the Republicans have 228 and the Democrats have 207. Which is a good gain of 25 seats.”
“We also can now confirm that Iowa, the state which gave President Dukakis trouble on his right flank, which gave Dole a third place finish, has voted for President Elect Dole.
“The fate of the Senate is unclear, but we should have an answer by midnight.”

(
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Electoral Votes:
Dole: 297
Dukakis: 241

Popular Vote:
Dole: 53%
Dukakis: 46%


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 14, 2012, 10:37:25 PM
12:00 November 3, 1992
SENATE OUTCOME UNCLEAR, LIKELY DEMOCRATS KEEP CONTROL
“It’s 12 midnight, and with the all but one of the results of the Senate races in, we have a very, very disturbing report.”
“Before this election, the Democrats held 54 seats, the Republicans held 45 seats, and Senator David Duke of Louisiana was an Independent, having been refused by both parties to include him in their caucus.”
“In California Democrat Barbara Boxer was defeated by Republican Tom Campbell.”
“In Georgia, Democrat Wyche Fowler lost reelection to Republican Paul Coverdell.”
“In Illinois, Republican Richard Williamson captured the Democratic seat held by Alan Dixon, by defeating Democrat Carol Moseley-Braun.”
“In North Carolina Democrat Terry Sanford lost re-election to Republican Lauch Faircloth.”
“In South Carolina, Democrat Ernest Hollings was defeated by Republican Thomas F. Hartnett.”
“There is only one Senate race left to call and it is in California."
"So far the Republicans have gained 5 seats, bringing their total to 50, which would give them control of the Senate simply because, even if the Democrats insanely allow Senator David Duke to join them, there will be a tie, and because the Vice President breaks the tie, control of the Senate would go to the Republican Party because Vice President Elect John McCain is a Republican.”
“Exactly, so there would be no way the Republicans would not have control of the chamber if they have 50 seats. The Democrats would have had 49, and the one Independent.”

REPUBLICANS CAPTURE SENATE!

 “No wait! There are two Senate elections in California! We are waiting for the results of the other one!”
“That’s right, one for a retiring incumbent, and one that is a special election to fill the term of Pete Wilson, who resigned to become Governor.”
“But, oh crap, it’s happening, we can project it now.”
“Okay, we can now confirm that in California, Democrat Dianne Feinstein has defeated Republican John Seymour.”
“This means since the Democrats captured 1 Republican seat and the Republicans have captured 5, then overall the Republicans have captured 4 seats and not 5.”
“So how many seats do the Republicans control?”
“49. And the Democrats have 50.”
“So the Democrats have the majority then. They have control of the chamber.”

DEMOCRATS KEEP SENATE!

“No! No! Damn these tech people suck!"
"What's wrong? The Democrats have 50, the Republicans have 49, they have 1 more than the Republicans!”
“Yes, but, should the Republican caucus include Independent Senator Duke, then they would have 50.”
“A 50-50 tie, which means, Republican control.”
“Exactly.”
“Will the Republicans actually do that? Include Senator Duke in their caucus, just to have control of the chamber?”
“I have no idea. But that’s if Senator Duke even decides to caucus with them. He could decline, which would give control to the Democrats.”
“Oh great! So it’s up to him?!”
“Yes. Tomorrow, most of America will wake up to the news that the control of the Senate will likely be determined by Former Grand Wizard of the KKK, and Senator of Louisiana, David Duke.”

CONTROL OF SENATE UNKNOWN, SENATOR DAVID DUKE KEY TO OUTCOME
()


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 14, 2012, 10:39:28 PM
Well that's it. The 1992 Election. I hope you liked it. I'll post the resolution of the cliffhanger in a few days :)


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on August 15, 2012, 04:08:28 PM
Oh God....Duke controls the Senate.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on August 15, 2012, 07:21:52 PM
Cool presidential result! Glad to see Dole get it. :)


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: Jerseyrules on August 16, 2012, 01:35:10 AM


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 16, 2012, 11:08:03 PM
November 4, 1992: Control of Senate Unknown After Election, Duke Asks to Join GOP.
After the results of yesterday’s Senate elections, the Democrats have 50 seats, the Republicans have 49, and David Duke holds the Independent seat. David Duke has requested that the Republican Party include him in their caucus, so that they will have 50 seats and therefore a majority. President Elect Bob Dole has stated that he would rather have a Senate minority than Duke in the Republican caucus. Other senators are uncertain.

November 5, 1992: Senator Howell Heflin Joins the GOP, Giving Them Senate Majority.

In a move that was a surprising and easy solution to the Senator Duke drama, Democratic Senator Howell Heflin of Alabama has decided to switch parties to the GOP. The very conservative Democrat Heflin stated that his ideology fits in more with the Republicans, and that the election showed that the majority of Americans wanted a Republican Congress. This changes the Senate from 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 1 Independent, to 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats, and 1 Independent. The Republicans now control the Presidency and the Congress.

November 15, 1992: President Elect Bob Dole Will Ask Congress to Abolish Several Departments.
In one of his first proposals, President Elect Bob Dole will ask Congress to introduce bills which would abolish the departments of Education, Housing and Urban Development, Commerce and Energy. "Hopefully, we're going to get rid of the Department of Education," he said to cheers. "I didn't vote for it in the first place." He also stated that when he announces his Cabinet next week, he will only announce for the departments which will stay. If the Congress does not abolish a department, he will name the Secretary for it immediately.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: Mister Mets on August 18, 2012, 12:35:35 PM
November 4, 1992: Control of Senate Unknown After Election, Duke Asks to Join GOP.
After the results of yesterday’s Senate elections, the Democrats have 50 seats, the Republicans have 49, and David Duke holds the Independent seat. David Duke has requested that the Republican Party include him in their caucus, so that they will have 50 seats and therefore a majority. President Elect Bob Dole has stated that he would rather have a Senate majority than Duke in the Republican caucus. Other senators are uncertain.

November 5, 1992: Senator Howell Heflin Joins the GOP, Giving Them Senate Majority.

In a move that was a surprising and easy solution to the Senator Duke drama, Democratic Senator Howell Heflin of Alabama has decided to switch parties to the GOP. The very conservative Democrat Heflin stated that his ideology fits in more with the Republicans, and that the election showed that the majority of Americans wanted a Republican Congress. This changes the Senate from 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 1 Independent, to 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats, and 1 Independent. The Republicans now control the Presidency and the Congress.

November 15, 1992: President Elect Bob Dole Will Ask Congress to Abolish Several Departments.
In one of his first proposals, President Elect Bob Dole will ask Congress to introduce bills which would abolish the departments of Education, Housing and Urban Development, Commerce and Energy. "Hopefully, we're going to get rid of the Department of Education," he said to cheers. "I didn't vote for it in the first place." He also stated that when he announces his Cabinet next week, he will only announce for the departments which will stay. If the Congress does not abolish a department, he will name the Secretary for it immediately.

I love the political drama here, and the solution to it.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 19, 2012, 10:13:03 PM
Maybe I missed it, but I didn't see where you posted the final electoral college result and popular vote numbers.

This was excellent, btw. Whether you continue this one or start a new one, I hope you keep it up.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on August 20, 2012, 02:13:31 PM
I love how such a potentially drawn out political crisis was so quickly solved. That was unexpected.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: Mister Mets on August 20, 2012, 09:18:02 PM
I don't know what plans you have for the seat, but Jim Kolbe would make an interesting replacement for McCain in the Senate.

He was elected to the House in 1987, and would come out of the closet in 1996, after divorcing his wife in 1992.

In real life, he served in Congress until his retirement in 2007. He was then followed by Gabrielle Giffords. But it would be interesting to have a gay Senator in any What If?


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 20, 2012, 10:45:04 PM
Maybe I missed it, but I didn't see where you posted the final electoral college result and popular vote numbers.

This was excellent, btw. Whether you continue this one or start a new one, I hope you keep it up.

Thanks, I completely forgot to include that, so I edited a previous post, the one that had the last map.

I don't know what plans you have for the seat, but Jim Kolbe would make an interesting replacement for McCain in the Senate.

He was elected to the House in 1987, and would come out of the closet in 1996, after divorcing his wife in 1992.

In real life, he served in Congress until his retirement in 2007. He was then followed by Gabrielle Giffords. But it would be interesting to have a gay Senator in any What If?

I knew Kolbe was gay, I selected him to make things more interesting later on. He's not especially significant to an event, but he's a minor factor in part of a larger story.

One thing I have trouble with, is coming up with legislation. If anyone has any ideas on what a President Dole and Republican Congress would sign into law, feel free to send me a message if you have any good ideas.

When dealing with historical events that happen, I may make minor tweaks, not eliminating them but changing them just slightly, but I'm going to credit that to the "butterfly effect."


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 26, 2012, 09:09:25 PM
November 18, 1992: President Elect Bob Dole Announces Cabinet Picks.
President Elect Bob Dole has announced his Cabinet picks; they notably include former Reagan Chief of Staff and Treasury Secretary James Baker as Secretary of State, and former Ambassador to the UN Jeane Kirkpatrick as Secretary of Defense, who would be the first woman at that post if confirmed by the Senate. Nominated for Attorney General is the former Governor of Pennsylvania Dick Thornburgh. Nominated for Secretary of the Treasury is former Secretary Nicholas Brady, who served for a brief period from September 1988 to January 1989. Despite his call on Congress to abolish several Cabinet departments, President Dole has surprisingly decided to keep the Department of Environmental Protection. The Cabinet departments which Dole has called on Congress to abolish will not be named unless Congress votes to keep them.

Secretary of State: James Baker
Secretary of Defense: Jeanne Kirkpatrick
Attorney General: Dick Thornburgh
Secretary of the Treasury: Nicholas F. Brady
Secretary of the Interior: Bill Armstrong, the former Senator from Colorado,
Secretary of Agriculture: Kay A. Orr, the Governor of Nebraska
Secretary of Labor: Lynn Morley Martin, former Representative from Illinois.
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Lamar Alexander, former Governor of Tennessee
Secretary of Transportation: James H. Burnley IV, former Secretary of Transportation under Ronald Reagan.
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Ed Derwinski, former Representative from Illinois and Undersecretary of State
Secretary of Environmental Protection: William K. Reilly, President of the World Wildlife Fund.

December 10, 1992: Newt Gingrich will be Majority Whip.
Representative Newt Gingrich has won enough votes from his caucus to become the Majority Whip. He represents a growing number of conservatives who are wary of the number of moderates in Congressional leadership positions.

December 18, 1992: Steny Hoyer narrowly defeats David Bonior in Minority Whip Race.
In a contest that was closer than many had anticipated, current Majority Whip Steny Hoyer defeated David Bonior to become the next Minority Whip. This race was interesting for that fact that Hoyer is moderate and pro-choice, while Bonior is liberal and yet pro-life. Many Democrats voted for moderate Hoyer to balance with the current leader of House Democrats, William Gray who is liberal.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 26, 2012, 09:10:16 PM
December 31, 1992: State of Politics at the end of 1992.
In one election (and with one party switcher), the Presidency and Congress has gone from complete Democratic control to complete Republican control. A majority of the conservative Democratic voters have abandoned the party and are fully in the Republican column. The Republican Party has won 5 of the last 7 Presidential elections, and is now being termed as the current “natural governing party” of the United States. The Democratic Party is now smaller, more regionalized, and has a higher proportion of liberals in the party than it did previously. This is the second time that their President has been denied a second term and they are all asking themselves “How do we come back?” Some are calling for the party to move toward the center, but this can risk alienating the now more numerous liberals. Others are calling for the party to keep their political positions, and stand as a firm opposition party. The new leaders of the Democrats in Congress seem to personify this divide. The next Minority Leader is William Gray, a liberal from Philadelphia, (and the first African American to lead a party in Congress) and the Minority Whip is Steny Hoyer, a moderate from Maryland.
         Many Democrats in Congress have blamed President Dukakis for the election outcome, and he in turn is privately blaming them. The overall truth is that the main reason that the Democrats lost this year’s election, and lost big, was Congressional Democrats’ lax attitude on corruption, the decades of Democratic House control, and President’s Dukakis’ reluctance to compromise on liberal issues. The fact that the Republican ticket was comprised of two popular wounded veterans didn’t hurt. Bob Dole declined to pander to the hard line conservatives, and although that was risky in the primaries, it won him favor with moderates and independents.
   But as a result, many conservatives are unenthusiastic and cautious about the current Republican Party. Bob Dole was not the first choice of most conservatives, and because of John McCain’s brief period in Congress, they are unsure if is as staunch a conservative as they hope. His recent comments that he is a “maverick” who will not always stick to a strict ideology increased some of those fears. Most of Republican leaders in Congress are not conservative. Incoming Senate Majority Leader Alan Simpson and Majority Whip Lincoln Chafee are both pro-choice. Incoming Speaker Robert Michel has had a history of bipartisanship and has socialized frequently with Democrats, which had led to many criticizing him for this. Dick Cheney is the new Majority Leader, and a member of the liberal/moderate Republican caucus “The Republican Wednesday Group.” In real life, he really was a member! I had no idea about that. The only clear conservative is the newest member of the leadership Newt Gingrich, who will become the next Majority Whip. By announcing his own set of ideas that were unauthorized by the House Republican Leadership, Gingrich is already rankling Dick Cheney and simultaneously inspiring conservatives with his publication of a “Contract for America”…


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: Pingvin on August 27, 2012, 12:15:34 AM
Lynn Martin is from IL, not NY.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on August 27, 2012, 12:38:55 AM

Thanks, I fixed it.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on September 16, 2012, 10:54:51 PM
1993:
President: Bob Dole
Vice President: John McCain

Senate Majority Leader: Alan Simpson
Majority Whip: Lincoln Chafee

Senate Minority Leader: George Mitchell
Minority Whip: Wendell Ford

Speaker: Robert Michel
Majority Leader: Dick Cheney
Majority Whip: Newt Gingrich

Minority Leader: William Gray
Minority Whip: Steny Hoyer

Senators:
Alabama:
Howell Heflin (R)
Dick Shelby (R)

Alaska:
Ted Stevens (R)
Frank H. Murkowski (R)

Arizona
Dennis DeConcini (D)
Jim Kolbe (R)

Arkansas
Dale Bumpers (D)
David Pryor (D)

California
Alan Cranston (D)
Tom Campbell (R)

Colorado
Ben Nighthorse Campbell (D)
Hank Brown (R)

Connecticut
Christopher Dodd (D)
Joe Lieberman (D)

Delaware
William Roth (R)
Joe Biden (D)

Florida
Bob Graham (D)
Buddy McKay (D)

Georgia
Sam Nunn (D)
Paul Coverdell (R)

Hawaii
Daniel K. Inouye (D)
Pat Saiki (R)

Idaho
Dirk Kempthorne (R)
Larry Craig (R)

Illinois
Richard Williamson (D)
Paul Simon (D)

Indiana
Richard Lugar (R)
Dan Quayle (R)

Iowa
Chuck Grassley (R)
Tom Tauke (R)

Kansas
Pat Roberts (R)
Nancy Landon Kassebaum (R)

Kentucky
Wendell H. Ford (D)
Mitch McConnell (R)

Louisiana
David Duke (I)
John B. Breaux (D)

Maine
William S. Cohen (R)
George J. Mitchell (D)

Maryland
Paul S. Sarbanes (D)
Barbara A. Mikulski (D)

Massachusetts
Edward M. Kennedy (D)
John Kerry (D)

Michigan
Donald W. Riegle, Jr. (D)
Carl Levin (D)

Minnesota
David Durenberger (R)
Rudy Boschwitz (R)

Mississippi
Thad Cochran (R)
Trent Lott (R)

Missouri
John C. Danforth (R)
Kit Bond (R)

Montana
Max Baucus (D)
John Melcher (D)
   
Nebraska
Jim Exon (D)
J. Robert Kerrey (D)

Nevada
Harry Reid (D)
Richard H. Bryan (D)

New Hampshire
Judd Gregg (R)
Bob Smith (R)

New Jersey
Christine Todd Whitman (R)
Frank R. Lautenberg (D)

New Mexico
Pete Domenici (R)
Jeff Bingaman (D)

New York
Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D)
Al D'Amato (R)

North Carolina
Jesse Helms (R)
Terry Sanford (D)

North Dakota
Kent Conrad (D)
Byron Dorgan (D)

Ohio
John Glenn (D)
Howard Metzenbaum (D)

Oklahoma
David L. Boren (D)
Don Nickles (R)

Oregon
Mark O. Hatfield (R)
Bob Packwood (R)

Pennsylvania
John Heinz (R)
Arlen Specter (R)

Rhode Island
Claiborne Pell (D)
John H. Chafee (R)

South Carolina
Strom Thurmond (R)
Thomas Hartnett (R)

South Dakota
Larry Pressler (R)
Thomas A. Daschle (D)

Tennessee
Jim Sasser (D)
Al Gore (D)

Texas
Lloyd Bentsen (D)
Phil Gramm (R)

Utah
Robert Foster Bennett (R)
Orrin G. Hatch (R)

Vermont
Patrick Leahy (D)
James Jeffords (R)

Virginia
John W. Warner (R)
Charles S. Robb (D)

Washington
Brock Adams (D)
Mike Lowry (D)

West Virginia
Robert C. Byrd (D)
John D. Rockefeller IV (D)

Wisconsin
Bob Kasten (R)
Herb Kohl (D)

Wyoming
Malcolm Wallop (R)
Alan K. Simpson (R)

January 20, 1993: President Bob Dole Sworn Into Office, Calls for Unity with Americans.
President Bob Dole took office today at the age of 69, only several months younger than the oldest President to take office, Ronald Reagan. Many see Dole as Reagan Part II, with many of the same positions and goals. The exception, of course, is that Dole will have a Republican Congress to work with, while Reagan has a Democratic Senate for 2 years, and a Democratic House throughout his Presidency. In his inauguration speech, he called for a de-emphasis on social issues that divide Americans and a shrinking of government. “A smaller government is a more effective government.” In addition, he called for America to reassert itself as the world’s leader of democracy and that with the end of the Soviet Union as a rival, we should seek to work with all nations to improve human rights everywhere.

February 10, 1993: Dole Tax Cuts Signed Into Law.
The Dole Tax Cuts, as they have been termed, will reduce taxes 15 percent across the board for every taxpayer in America. It will also include a $500 per child tax credit for lower and middle income families in America. The tax cuts are moderately popular with the public, although some question if this will lead to a deficit, as it did with the Reagan tax cuts. Dole’s response is that with a Republican Congress, he can cut government more efficiently than Reagan ever could. Votes on the abolition of several departments are scheduled for next week.

February 18, 1993: Congress Votes to Abolish Department of Commerce, Energy, Housing and Urban Development.  Department of Education Stays.
Congress has approved the elimination of several Cabinet departments, that being the Department of Commerce, Energy, and Housing and Urban Development. The vote on the Department of Education was defeated, and President Dole quickly nominated South Carolina Governor Carroll A. Campbell, Jr.to the post.

February 26, 1993. World Trade Center bombed. The North Tower Collapses. At Least 10,000 Killed. President Dole Promises a Swift Response.

()
Today a strategically placed truck bomb was detonated under the North Tower of the World Trade Center. After 20 minutes of an intense fire, the North Tower collapsed. Due to the quick timeline of events, many of those inside the North Tower were unable to escape. At least 10,000 Americans are believed to have been killed. At this point, the suspects are unknown.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: GLPman on September 17, 2012, 12:43:18 AM
Wow, didn't see that coming.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on September 17, 2012, 02:28:32 PM
Glad to see this bacK :) Sad to see what happened however. 9/11 looks mild in comparison to that.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: Jerseyrules on September 22, 2012, 02:32:10 AM
Glad to see this bacK :) Sad to see what happened however. 9/11 looks mild in comparison to that.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on September 22, 2012, 06:30:59 AM
Holy Schneickies! Too bad about the World Trade Center.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on September 24, 2012, 09:51:01 PM
March 1, 1993: President Dole Approval nears 90%.
In a bittersweet union of Americans, their approval of President Dole is at 87%. Almost all Americans have praised the President for his calm stance on the situation and firm commitment to responding to the WTC Attack.

March 4, 1993. World Trade Center Death Total Confirmed: 11,465
After a week of shock, sadness, and anger, the death toll in the World Trade Center terrorist bombing has been confirmed. 11,465 Americans have died in the worst terrorist attack in U.S. history. Investigators have discovered that the bombing was due to a truck bomb, and its vehicle registration number has been discovered. The vehicle was reported stolen, and Mohammad Salameh, a Palestinian, has been arrested. Palestinian leaders have disputed that they are responsible for the attack.

March 8, 1993: Arrested Suspect in WTC Bombing Leads to New Jersey Apartment.
The arrest of Mohommad Salameh has led investigators to the New Jersey apartment of Ramzi Yousef, a Kuwaiti. The apartment contained various bomb making materials and is believed to be the location where the attack was constructed.  Ramzi Yousef has been confirmed to have left the United States for Iraq, and his current location is unknown.

March 11, 1993: Ramzi Yousef’s Uncle Believed to Organize Attack. A Member of Al Qaeda Terrorist Organization.
In a trail that continues to amaze the FBI, the man responsible for carrying out the attack Ramzi Yousef, is believed to be financed by his uncle, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. This individual is a Kuwaiti who spent time in Afghanistan fighting against the Soviet invasion. He was currently living in the Philippines, but when Philippine authorizes raided his home, they found nothing. He is a member of Al Qaeda, a militant Islamist terrorist organization based in Afghanistan. It is unknown if Khalid Sheikh Mohammad acted as a part of Al Qaeda or on his own accord.
Because the WTC 1993 attacks are successful, many of the individuals involved realize that the United States is searching for them, and so they escape as soon as they have the opportunity.

March 15, 1993: WTC Suspects Have Relocated to Afghanistan.
Despite many of the WTC suspects having various nationalities, one thing they have in common is that they spent time in Afghanistan fighting against the Soviet invasion. Many of the suspects are now thought to have fled to Afghanistan, a country that is currently in a multi sided civil war. With a very weak national government, the suspects and allies are able to avoid capture. More attacks are possible without their arrest. A foreign intervention seems to be the only option. A vote on the Intervention in Afghanistan is expected tomorrow in Congress.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: retromike22 on September 25, 2012, 09:54:13 PM
March 16, 1993: U.S. Approves Afghan War.
Congress has voted to intervene in Afghanistan, in order to capture the terrorists responsible for the WTC attacks and to successful state so that more attacks will not come. Afghanistan is currently in a multi sided civil war, with three main groups. The first is the weak national government, named the Islamic State of Afghanistan, which is the successor state to the communist Democratic Republic of Afghanistan. The second is Hezbe Wahdat, a Shia Islamist group based in the central region with known ties and support from Iran. It is popular with the Hazara ethnic group. The third is Hezbi Islami, a Sunni Muslim group with support with the Pashtun ethnic group. In addition, many cities including the large city of Kandahar are under the control of independent warlords. It is a complex, multi ethnic, multi sect civil war that the United States will now enter. Almost all groups are highly opposed to the intervention.

Note: In real life, the Taliban was not a major factor until August 1996, so it is not mentioned here.

March 20, 1993: Pakistan signs Agreement with United States.
The Government of Pakistan signed an agreement with the United States, so that military bases will be used and built in Pakistan, in order to begin the invasion of Afghanistan from Pakistan. The agreement in return forgives about 1 billion dollar in debt that Pakistan owes to the U.S. The Prime Minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif is a member of the center right Pakistan Muslim League, which although skeptical of foreign intervention, is firmly opposed to terrorism. Although most Pakistanis oppose the WTC attacks, some are reluctant about the U.S. intervening in Afghanistan. Opposition leader Benazir Bhutto is a strong supporter of the intervention.

March 30, 1993: Invasion of Afghanistan Begins.
The United States has begun the invasion of Afghanistan from the south, hoping to capture the terrorists responsible for the WTC attacks and to help create a successful state so that the country will not become a base for further attacks.

April 1, 1993: Osama bin Laden Returns to Afghanistan to Fight against U.S. Intervention.
Osama bin Laden has left his home country of Saudi Arabia and has returned to Afghanistan, vowing to defeat the United States’ military in Afghanistan. He stated that this invasion is similar to the fight against the Soviet Union in the 1980s, and that all Muslim countries should resist against intervention by non-Muslim countries.

A History Lesson:

In real life, following the Soviet Union’s withdrawal of Afghanistan in 1989, Osama bin Laden returned to Saudi Arabia. When the Persian Gulf War began in 1991, bin Laden was outraged that Saudi monarchy allowed the U.S. military in Saudi territory. He protested publicly, and was enough of a problem that the Saudis banished him in 1992. He fled to Sudan and lived there from 1992 to 1996. It was in August 1996 that he declared war on the United States because the American military was still present in Saudi territory. He named his statement the “Declaration of War against the Americans Occupying the Land of the Two Holy Places.” The two holy places being: Mecca and Medina. It was in 1998 that Al Qaeda bombed the two U.S. embassies in Africa, and the date of the bombings marked the eighth anniversary of the arrival of American forces in Saudi Arabia. Three years later, the 9/11 terrorist attacks occur.

But… because in 1991 President Dukakis was in office and thereby having Walter Mondale as Secretary of State, the Persian Gulf War never happens. Osama bin Laden does not criticize the Saudi Royal family and is not banished. Instead in this timeline in 1993 he continues to live in Saudi Arabia. Because Afghanistan is invaded in 1993 by the U.S., Osama bin Laden sees this as another foreign intervention, just like with the Soviet Union. So on April 1, 1993, Osama bin Laden returns to Afghanistan…


April 2, 1993: Timothy McVeigh, 24, First American to Die In Afghan War.
Army Corporal Timothy McVeigh is the first American to die in battle during the Afghan War.


Title: Re: The Death of a Strategist: 1988 and Beyond Altered.
Post by: Jerseyrules on September 26, 2012, 12:28:58 PM
Awesome stuff man; I'm praying that TTL's war turns out better than otl.