Talk Elections

First on-line source in English I could find is from 3 weeks ago:

http://fride.org/blog/dutch-government-likely-to-fall-over-additional-cuts/

Today Wilders did walk away from the negotiating table, making a collapse of the government and early elections (possibly in September) very likely. I will enjoy the CDA getting what it so obviously deserves, but beyond that I think there are very few certainties if there were to be an election.

I suppose the VVD might well stay the largest party, but at the same time headed for the opposition as there seems a big desire to break with this government on the left and in the center. Together PvdA, SP, GL, and D66 should come close to a majority, I guess, as the CDA will literally bleed votes to the left. So, does any of our Dutch members know whether it's realistic for all those parties (and possibly the CU, PvdD or even the CDA) to work together?

Poll:

http://www.ipsos-nederland.nl/content.asp?targetid=621

Oh please please yes.

Don't like Mark Rutte's ideals (at all), but I like his style, but to see France, the Netherlands, Denmark and Slovakia head left all within a year of eachother is just brilliant. Finally some wins for the left.

Wouldn't SP as the largest left-wing party create a potential sh**tstorm for forming a purely left-wing coalition?

There's no need to stres just how awful this government was, I suppose. But it's still wildly comical that Wilders is blaming a 'Brussels imposed' limit of 3% on deficits for his decision to back away from the government: a 3% limit that the Dutch government itself helped force on the rest of the EU. I wonder why Wilders didn't think that problematic at the time.

About the CDA: it's really one of the most despicably hypocrite bunch of careerists in European politics. Recently a party commision decided that the CDA needed to position itself more to the centre of the political scene. On Dutch television one of the members of an important party organ was interviewed and asked whether he didn't think that claiming to be a 'mature, centrist' party wasn't incompatible with being part of one of the most right-wing governments in history. His answer was something like: 'Well, obviously it's going to be a hard sell'. That's the mentality of those people. The champion of them all just has to be Immigration Minister Gerd Leers though. Oh, I do hope the party gets absolutely destroyed.

I understand the SP is falling back as many of its voters return to the PvdA, which has recently elected a new leader (Diederik Samsom). Barring a disasterous campaign or Samsom turning out to have been a horrible pick, the PvdA should be the largest party of the left. The SP also looks like it could still lose some voters back to the PVV if Wilders manages to make those people forget why they abandoned him by running an especially populist campaign.

Disclaimer: all of this is just speculation by a casual bystander.

Ho hum. :)

:D


Which would be quite the remarkable thing, from a historical perspective.

Excellent.

Can any Dutch give me a summary of how disastrous this government has been? I know Wilders is a bigot, but I mean in terms of policy.

Yes, please.

Well, doesn't CDA took a beating last time?
They could go even lower?

Oh,  absolutely.  The party is on 12 seats in the polls. They don't even have a leader at the moment.

Early elections are expected in September.

Well, in 2010 we came out of the hard economic times as one of the best in Europe, now we are back in a recession and near the bottom of Europe. That says it all.

This government has fallen and new elections will be held probably in September. It's not official yet (after all, the PVV was never really part of the government to begin with), but the government has lost it's majority support in parliament.

As for the parties.

The CDA doesn't even have a leader. Since Balkenende left in June of 2010 Verhagen (now the deputy prime minister) has been the acting leader, but he has said allready he is not available for the job (he is among the most distrusted politicians in the country). And there is no real frontrunner for the job right now.

The PvdA just elected a new leader only weeks ago. But Samson is only partyleader for the moment. New elections will be held to decide who will lead them throw the elections. Although, with the recovery in the polls the last week, Samson will probably win those party elections easily.

As for Geert Wilders, he is slipping away. His party is in turmoil and more and more elected official around the country are walking away from him.
There are some rumours that he might be leaving The Netherlands for a job in the US.

So Wilders wasn't actually able to get any fascist stuff through Dutch Parliament?

He was bad, as was this government. Sending kids back to Africa where they have nobody who can take care of them is bad enough. Sending gays to Iran where they will be murdered for being gay. Those kind of things happened, sadly enough.

Dutch immigration policies are now so strict that any further change in the direction Wilders would like is impossible without breaking International Treaties or opening up the Netherlands to persecution in Strassbourg. Several Asylum Seekers have burnt themselves as suicide-protest. The Netherlands deports underage girls who have spent most of their life there to Afghanistan,...

Rutte basically sold out immigrants in the Netherlands to Wilders so he could more effectively wield the Austerity Axe in other terrains (like, oh, foreign aid).  It was a truly despicable government, vile to the bone.

Rutte has sold the VVD out to the PVV and the radical Christians of the SGP. That is really sad for a party that claims to be liberal.

Given that Wilders (as well as the seemingly-forgotten Rita Verdonk (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUYaRTYQ4w8)) were VVD to begin with, it hardly looks like that much of a sell-out.

What was that? Seriously? (The video, I think).

The Wilders of 2010 was very different from the man who left the VVD in 2004. He has become more radical by the year. Compared to him Fortuijn is almost left wing and Verdonk seems like a moderate.

And Verdonk was thrown out of the VVD when they were in opposition.

So yes, Rutte sold his party out to the PVV and the SGP. And he did it to stay in power.

The worst campaign spot you will ever find.

Haha Rita Verdonk and that infamous little video!

She had the bad luck of pulling out at the wrong moment and in the wrong direction. Never understood why she didn't wind up in the PVV. Might have to do with Wilders being too close to Ayaan Hirsi Ali. I'm sure one of our Dutchmen knows. Trots Op Nederland still exists, google learns me, and now is one of those irrelevant parties with a disproportionally long wikipedia article.

Edit: Dutch political videos generally are a bit weird and ill-considered: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVx7-z1oC8Y

Rita Verdonk is more right wing on economic issues. Geert Wilders has pretty left wing economic views (I suspect it's more out of electoral believe than real believe). And Verdonk was and is just one big joke.

These videos are absolute comedy gold! :D

Where to start? The problem is that the government had to compromise too much with Wilders and to a lesse extent with the orthodox-christian SGP.

There are clear problems on the housing market and on the labour market, but the government did nothing to adress these problems because the PVV did not want to.
Tougher laws so that 'criminal' immigrants can be sent back to their own country.
Cuts on education for children with sepcial needs.
Cuts on nature and environment and no investment in renewable energy.
Massive cuts and higher VAT on culture because this is a 'leftist' hobby.
The Romanian PM does not want to officially receive the Dutch ambassador, because the Netherlands is the only country in the EU that blocks Romanian entry in 'Schengen'
Wilders made an anti-Polish immigrants website and the government said nothing!

To appease the SGP the liberal VVD:

- retracted its support for a co-sponsored bill to remove blasphemy from criminal law;
- voted against a resolution that would force civil servants to marry same-sex couples;
- rejected an initiative to grant the elderly the right to end their lives if they so desire.

Woah, when did we aquire a third Dutch member. Belated welcome to our little planet, Earthling!

I would be very happy to see the horrible Dutch and Czech governments fall in the same week.

Well, in a poll this sunday CDA now has 11 seats (down 3 seats from last week and 10 seats from the last election ). Other parties:

VVD  33
PVV  19
PvdA 24
SP  30
D66  15
GroenLinks 5
CU  6
SGP  3
PvdD  3
50Plus  1

VVD (and PVV) is still doing amazingly well when contrasted with CDA... but then I guess the CDA votes need to go somewhere...

Poll posted by jeron above is by De Hond/peil.nl

Last Synovate poll (19 April), compared with previous poll of 5 April

VVD 37 (+1)
PvdA 27 (+1)
SP 26 (+1)
PVV 18 (-2)
D66 13 (nc)
CDA 12 (-1)
GroenLinks 5 (-1)
CU 5  (nc)
PvdD 4 (+1)
SGP 2 (nc)
50+ 1 (nc)

So the left wouldn't be able to form government?

Depends on what is considered as 'left'. In the Netherlands this is usually PvdA, SP, D66, GL, CU, PvdD and probably also 50+. These parties would have a majority of 81, but not a stable one I guess.

Would Paars(+) be an option? How does the PvdA feel about the person Rutte?

Paars(+) = VVD/PvdA/D66/(GrLinks), for those outside the Netherlands and Flanders.

Yes, that would be an option. PvdA will blame Rutte for his choice for a coalition supported by the PVV, which was already considered a risk in 2010. Also, his cuts in support for subsidized labour for the handicapped (see this youtube video by the FNV, the PvdA-allied trade union: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSXYTNq2fyw ), and other cuts will be blamed on him.

As a person, he is by all parties considered as sympathetic, and his leadership style as refreshing, also by the PvdA.

In contrast to Balkenende he is.

Paars will be the next government, that is almost a fact. The PVV will not be trusted again and the CDA is in huge trouble and needs time out op power. That will leave either Paars or a government with VVD and SP. And the latter is not realistic.

Well, strictly speaking, a VVD-SP coalition would also be Paars. ;)

How is the relationship between the PvdA and the SP? Would they work together?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/apr/23/eurozone-crisis-austerity-dutch-government

Preferably not, both parties don't get along well. PvdA considers the SP to be a bunch of leftwing populists, and the PvdA is considered to be a neoliberal outfit that lost its touch with the lower incomes by the SP.

It is expected that early elections will be held late September / early October. Elections need about 80 days preparation time, which means the earliest date is around July 15. However, usually no elections are held in the July/August period, because of the summer holiday. Earliest possible date afterwards is September 5. State Opening of Parliament is September 18, which makes elections on September 12 and September 19 highly unlikely.

So, my guess is either September 5, September 26 or October 3.

VVD, SP and PvdA want elections before the summer, which would mean end of June!

Forging the iron while it's hot, eh?

Is it practically doable to throw together an election before early July? Aren't there any constitutional restraints on the earliest possible date for an election?

When the Second Chamber is dissolved, Dutch electoral law (Kieswet), dictates that candidate lists are handed on a particular Tuesday 0-40 days afterwards. Elections are 43 days after this Tuesday, on a Wednesday.

Usually the maximum period of 40 days is used between dissolution and handing in of candidate lists. This gives parties time to have a party congress, write an election manifesto, and decide on their candidates. New parties also have time to gather declarations of support (30 per election district, 600 in total). Voters living abroad will have to register to vote by mail.

It will be a hell of a job, but it might be possible.

Dutch electoral law (in Dutch): http://www.st-ab.nl/wetten/0172_Kieswet_KW.htm

On a personal note: I prefer elections in June over elections in September, since I will be abroad the whole month of September. This means that I am unable to volunteer in a polling station, and I would need to find someone to vote for me by proxy.

Dutch electoral commission gives September 5 as the earliest feasible date. June 27 would make it impossible for new parties to register their name with the commission, and municipalities (especially the 'special municipalities' in the Caribbean (Bonaire, Saba, St Eustatius) need more time for preparation.

CDA is furious at the VVD for suggesting June 27, because that would give CDA only 3 weeks to elect a new leader.

Are there any feasible leadership candidates? Verhagen seems to be the de facto heart of the party, but I understand he doesn't want the job?

Maybe a September election could be a blessing to the CDA as a relatively unknown new leader may then have the time to properly distantiate himself a little from the party's course over the past 2 years and regain a bit of the base that left the party over it. On the other hand, just how credible would any such attempt be?

Between France and this, Merkel must be as annoyed as Segolene Royal.

Verhagen as leader would be disastrous for the party. He is very unpopular, "slick Jesuit" and "the rat" are some of the more friendlier nicknames I have heard.

Possible candidates:

()
Jan Kees de Jager, minister of Finance. Quite popular (not with the other European finance ministers), but doesn't seem to want to become party leader. Would be interesting though, a gay man leading a Christian party.

()
Henk Bleker, underminister of Economic Affairs & Agriculture. Was completely unknown, but became interim party chairman after the elections in 2010, and part of the government afterwards. Cultivates his image of pony farmer from the North, although he was part of the government of Groningen province for 10 years. He is also famous for his relationship with a journalist, she is 26 years old. Bleker has some popularity, but it has waned a bit after some unfortunate remarks.

()
Liesbeth Spies is the Home Secretary since December after the resignation of Piet Hein Donner (he became vice chairman of the Council of State). Spies used to be an MP for 8 years, and part of the provincial government of Zuid-Holland afterwards. She is unknown to the electorate. There is not really something remarkable about her, but also not much against her.

()
Marja van Bijsterveldt: Minister of Education. She was active in local politics 1990-2003, party chairman 2003-2007 and then (under)minister of Education. Not very popular with teachers & students, because of budget cuts, but otherwise she is doing a decent job.

()
Camiel Eurlings: Became MP at 24, in 1998. Afterwards also MEP and minister of Transport. Retired from politics in 2010, to spend more time with his family (i.e. to procreate), however his girlfriend left him a few months later. He now works for KLM, and is still popular especially in Limburg, where he was born. Eurlings is famous for his emotional declaration of support at the CDA congress that gave permission to participate in the VVD/CDA/(PVV) coalition.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUclLUgE58k

I remember Eurlings' exit back in 2010. I do feel a bit bad for finding his relational troubles afterwards to be so inherently amusing.

You're on the centre-right, if I remember correctly, Freek. Are you intending to vote VVD?

Voters don't want Verhagen. Possible candidates are ministers De Jager and Spies or maybe leader in the lower house Van Haersma Buma. Of course, it will be hard for them to distance themselves from the party line.
It now seems there is a clear majority for an election at the end of June or possibly early July so there's not much time left for CDA to elect a new leader.

I do feel sorry for him too, his girlfriend was rather attractive. ;D

I guess so. Not sure yet, I am always in doubt between CDA & VVD (on the European level, I have voted CU/SGP in the past). But I guess it will be VVD this time.

I was not a supporter of the past coalition though.

PvdA is now willing to compromise on September 5 as election date, which gives a large majority in parliament for this date.

Knowing nothing of Dutch government, this is quite the interesting thread. Freek's character bios were particularly hilarious.

It will probably be September 12.

Isn't that a relatively long time to be without a "functioning" government? (Guess Belgians might not see it that way :))

Yes. It was a choice between the end of June (before the summer vacation), but that would have meant there was little time for parties to prepare for the elections, or after the summer vacation.

Do it really matter, as I see it, that's mostly symbolic issues except the last, when was the last time anybody was found guilty of blasphemy in a court of law? As for issue two; have it kept anybody from being married by somebody else?

In a surprise development, a makeshift coalition consisting of VVD, CDA, D66, GL and CU have managed in short order to reach a (provisional) budget deal which still respects the 3-percent-deficit rule.

Urgh, remember now why I don't like GL under Sap. Stil, this at least means the PvdA's hands are clean.

Does this mean the election is off?

No, this is just so there is a 'satisfactory' budget. One could even ask how much of what's been agreed will ever really be acted upon.

Election date is now fixed at 12 September by the government.

Yes, most measures may never be acted upon, but some will. The VAT raise will be effective from October 1st for example.

Parties not participating in the budget talks (PVV, PvdA, SP) have taken a hit in the polls, especially the PvdA. A majority of the PvdA voters actually doesn't disagree with the agreement.

The VVD/CDA/D66/GL/CU-coalition is called the 'Kunduz coalition' in the Netherlands. It is named after the Afghan city where a Dutch police training mission was deployed last year. PVV did not want to agree with this government proposal, but D66, GL and CU did.

Latest polls:
TNS NIPO April 30 (compared with previous poll of March 20)
VVD 32 (-1)
CDA 15 (nc)
PVV 19 (-1)
PvdA 20 (-3)
SP 29 (nc)
D66 16 (+3)
GL 8 (+3)
CU 5 (-1)
SGP 2 (nc)
PvdD 2 (nc)
50Plus 2 (+1)
Other 0 (nc)

Peil.nl/De Hond April 27 (compared with April 22)
VVD 31 (-2)
CDA 13 (+2)
PVV 17 (-2)
PvdA 19 (-5)
SP 31 (+1)
D66 17 (+2)
GL 8 (+3)
CU 7 (+1)
SGP 3 (nc)
PvdD 3 (nc)
50Plus 1 (nc)
Other 0 (nc)

At the moment there are 4 candidates for the CDA leadership. Nominations close on May 4.

Candidates are Liesbeth Spies (Home Secretary), Sybrand van Haersma Buma (leader of the CDA fraction in parliament), Marcel Wintels (chairman of Fontys, a group of polytechnic schools) and Harry Wesselink (an unknown CDA member from Nijmegen).

Verhagen, De Jager and Van Bijsterveldt wil not participate for sure, not sure what Bleker will do.

For some unknown reason I didn't include Van Haersma Buma in my list of possible CDA leaders. Sybrand van Haersma Buma is a Frisian protestant, from a family of mayors, officers, and other public servants. He is an MP since 2002, and leader of the CDA fraction since 2010. Until that moment, he was relatively unknown, and he has remained that way. Although he was a proponent of the coalition agreement with the PVV, he didn't manage to give CDA its own profile in parliament. However, now CDA has been removed from the shackles of the coalition agreement, it is a different story. Van Haersma Buma excelled in the debate on the budget of last week, and all PVV inspired laws will either be abolished ("animal cops") or will not be voted upon (double nationality ban, burqa ban)

Seems the SP is holding its figures.

At the moment, yes. However, PvdA is aiming to take back some of the voters it has lost to the SP the last few years, by adopting a more leftist course than in the past.