Talk Elections

As Gael will lock the official thread tomorrow and before the results thread is dutifully active, here is the prediction thread.

And here's mine:

Hollande 29
Sarkozy 28
Mélenchon 14
Le Pen 13
Bayrou 10
Joly 2
Dupont-Aignan >1
Poutou >1
Arthaud 1<
Cheminade 1<

28
27
14

Le-Pen in 4th, Hollande in 2nd by a hair

Hollande 28.1
Sarkozy 24.8
LePen 15.8
Melenchon 15
Bayrou 10.1
Joly 2.8
Dupont-Aignan 1.7
Poutou 0.9
Arthaud 0.7
Cheminade 0.1

Hollande 28
Sarkozy 27
LePen 15
Melenchon 14
Bayrou 10
Joly 3
Dupont-Aignan 2
Poutou 1
Arthaud 0
Cheminade 0

If anyone is interested in making predictions, here's a few data you might want to know.

Final poll of all eight polling firms :

Candidate	TNS	IFOP	IPSOS	Harris	CSA	BVA	LH2	OW
Hollande	27	27	29	27.5	28	30	27	27.5
Sarkozy	27	27	25.5	26.5	25	26.5	26.5	27.5
Le Pen	17	16	16	16	16	14	15.5	16
Mélenchon	13	13.5	14	12	14.5	14	15	13
Bayrou	10	10.5	10	11	10.5	10	10	10
Joly	3	3	2	3	2	2	2.5	2
Dupont-Ai.	2	1.5	1.5	2	1.5	2	1.5	1.5
Poutou	1	1	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1	2
Arthaud	0	0.5	0	0.5	1	0	1	0.5
Cheminade	0	0	0.5	0	0	0	0	0

Except LH2 and OpinionWay, all have polled in the latest possible days.


And here's a little compilation of statistical data (Fab's last tracker results, the average and median of the above poll, the best and worst poll result for each candidate). The second column is probably the most useful guide.

Candidate	Tracker	Average	Median	Minimum	Maximum
Hollande	27.8	27.9	27.5	27	30
Sarkozy	27	26.4	26.5	25	27.5
Le Pen	15.7	15.8	16	14	17
Mélenchon	13.8	13.6	13.7	12	15
Bayrou	10.3	10.3	10	10	11
Joly	2.4	2.4	2.3	2	3
Dupont-Ai.	1.4	1.7	1.5	1.5	2
Poutou	1	1.4	1.5	1	2
Arthaud	0.5	0.4	0.5	0	1
Cheminade	0.1	0.1	0	0	0.5

I'll do mine tomorrow, though I already have quite precise ideas.

Sarkozy 27
Hollande 23.4
Melenchon 18
Marine Le Pen 13.5
Bayrou 11
Joly 3
Dupont-Aignan 2
Poutou 1
Arthaud 1
Cheminade 0.1

Poison DwarfSarkozy 26.3
Hollande 25.9
Panzergirl 15.5
Melenchon 12.9
Bayrou 11.6
Joly 4.2
Dupont-Aignan 2.1
Poutou 0.8
Arthaud 0.6
Cheminade 0.1

Obviously, the major Polish newspaper believes this will repeat today (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I2wLJfghnY), lol.

Near tie between the lead weights.
Le Pen to be ahead of Melenchon. :(

Hollande 28
Sarkozy 26,5
Melenchon 14,1
LePen 14

OK, time for mine ! :D I'll do my best, even though I'm usually not very good at making predictions. I'll give decimals (which I'm probably pulling out of my ass and have absolutely no value, but it's fun). So, here it is :


Hollande : 27.1% Despite a very slight favorable momentum, Fab has highlighted his demographic problems which might undermine turnout of his electorate. The fact he is the overwhelming favorite certainly doesn't help matters.

Sarkozy : 26.4% The downward trend seems pretty strong in the latest polls, it has probably continued in the final days. This is just compensated, but not reversed, by his demographic advantage.

Le Pen : 15.3% She seems to be estimated pretty correctly by pollsters, but I still suspect a certain overestimation. Her later trend might be positive, but I feel like many of her voters will eventually back Sarko or simply abstain.

Mélenchon : 13.2% He has an unfavorable trend which likely has continued, but overall his electorate is very motivated, so I doubt he will underperform that much.

Bayrou : 9.8% He's stable in the final period, but I think he will suffer from a significant voter demobilization. He has highly disappointed voters in these past months, he has been utterly inaudible recently, and his electorate is the most hesitating. That's why I think he'll eventually finish below 10%, a huge blow for him.

Joly : 2.9% Actually, she might be benefitting from a very late momentum, making here closer to 3 than to 2%. Maybe a late wave of compassion or an attempt by some voters to protect the greens from getting destroyed ? Anyways, not a big factor, but that's my gut feeling.

Dupont-Aignan : 2.4% He was experiencing a mini-surge in the last polls, which has probably been even stronger in these final days. Small candidates generally tend to overperform, so this might very well be the case here.

Poutou : 2.1% Same as for Dupont-Aignan, probably an even bigger momentum.

Arthaud : 0.6% She's as charismatic as a wet pizza, crazy as hell and gave no serious reason to vote for her... but she's a small candidate, so she will probably overperform a bit.

Cheminade : 0.2% This is a bad year for useless loons, so he might very well do even worse than in 1995. Maybe I'm wrong though... After all, he predicted the 2008 crisis, remember ! :P


Let's see how this ends up ! :)

Hollande 27.5
Sarkozy 27.4
Le Pen 15.6
Melenchon 13.4
Bayrou 10.3

Hollande ahead of Sarko, Marion in third, Melenchon strong but not phenomenally so, Bayrou at or a bit below 10%, my candidate crushed, NDA fairly good.

Melenchon 57
Le Pen 18
Poutou 17
Hollande 4
Sarkozy 3
others <1

Sarkozy 27
Hollande 26
Melenchon 16
Marine Le Pen 16
Bayrou 10
Joly 3
Dupont-Aignan 1,5
Poutou 1
Arthaud 0,7
Cheminade 0.1

Go troll elsewhere, Tweed.

27 Hollande
26.5 Sarko
18.5 Le Pen
13 Melenchon
9 Bayrou
3 Joly

I have tried to read up on this lately... I am no expert but I would guess something along the lines of-

29 Sarkozy
26 Hollande
19 Le Pen

I'm gonna make a bold one:

Hollande: 30,1%
Sarkozy: 26,8%
Le Pen: 16,3%
Melenchon: 14,7%
Bayrou: 9,2%

The rest are irrelevant.

You may be fair right, Swedish, as tunrout and leaked numbers are bad for Sarkozy and good for Hollande... :(

Hash hasn't reopened the official thread, so I'm posting here just to tell you that I've published a tracker on vote transfers (reports de voix) on my blog ;D

So you can make your own calculations...

Of course, today's Big Bad Tracker is also published !
55.11 / 44.89

With polling datas on vote transfers, applied to real results:
54.59 / 45.41

And daily IFOP has a first 55 / 45 this week.

28.5
27
18
11
9
2

Pas mal.

Yeah, quite.

As for me, I was definitely too conservative in my prediction and failed to grasp any of the major trends at their real level. Though, at least, I didn't put Sarko ahead. ;D

Don't understand why anyone with even a passing interest in the presidentielles would! :P

GO TO HELL ! ;D

At least, my tracker was right, though I didn't evcen trust it :P

Anyways, here are the updated charts. I added the results to the 1st round tracker.

()

()

Maybe you can re-post these graphs in the Official Thread, Hash has just unlocked it ;)

And add another point on the graph for the tracker with vote transfers ? As you wish...

Final results, for the record :

Hollande 28.6
Sarkozy 27.2
Le Pen 17.9
Mélenchon 11.1
Bayrou 9.1
Joly 2.3
Dupont-Aignan 1.8
Poutou 1.1
Arthaud 0.6
Cheminade 0.2


And here's the over-underperformance of candidates compared to several indicators.

Fab's tracker :

Hollande : +0.8
Sarkozy : +0.2
Le Pen : +2.2
Mélenchon : -2.7
Bayrou : -1.2
Joly : -0.1
Dupont-Aignan : +0.4
Poutou : +0.1
Arthaud : =
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 7.9 pts


Polling average :

Hollande : +0.8
Sarkozy : +0.7
Le Pen : +2.1
Mélenchon : -2.5
Bayrou : -1.1
Joly : -0.1
Dupont-Aignan : +0.1
Poutou : -0.2
Arthaud : +0.1
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 7.9 pts ;D


Last TNS-Sofres poll :

Hollande : +1.6
Sarkozy : +0.2
Le Pen : +0.9
Mélenchon : -1.9
Bayrou : -0.9
Joly : -0.7
Dupont-Aignan : -0.2
Poutou : +0.1
Arthaud : +0.6
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 7.3 pts


Last IFOP poll :

Hollande : +1.6
Sarkozy : +0.2
Le Pen : +1.9
Mélenchon : -2.4
Bayrou : -1.4
Joly : -0.7
Dupont-Aignan : +0.3
Poutou : +0.1
Arthaud : +0.1
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 8.9 pts


Last IPSOS poll :

Hollande : -0.4
Sarkozy : +1.7
Le Pen : +1.9
Mélenchon : -2.9
Bayrou : -0.9
Joly : +0.3
Dupont-Aignan : +0.3
Poutou : -0.4
Arthaud : +0.6
Cheminade : -0.3

Overall deviation : 9.7 pts


Last Harris poll :

Hollande : +1.1
Sarkozy : +0.7
Le Pen : +1.9
Mélenchon : -0.9
Bayrou : -1.9
Joly : -0.7
Dupont-Aignan : -0.2
Poutou : -0.4
Arthaud : +0.1
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 8.1 pts


Last CSA poll :

Hollande : +0.6
Sarkozy : +2.2
Le Pen : +1.9
Mélenchon : -3.4
Bayrou : -1.4
Joly : +0.3
Dupont-Aignan : +0.3
Poutou : -0.4
Arthaud : -0.4
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 11.1 pts


Last BVA poll :

Hollande : -1.4
Sarkozy : +0.7
Le Pen : +3.9
Mélenchon : -2.9
Bayrou : -0.9
Joly : +0.3
Dupont-Aignan : -0.2
Poutou : -0.4
Arthaud : +0.6
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 11.5 pts


Last LH2 poll :

Hollande : +1.6
Sarkozy : +0.7
Le Pen : +2.4
Mélenchon : -3.9
Bayrou : -0.9
Joly : -0.2
Dupont-Aignan : +0.3
Poutou : +0.1
Arthaud : -0.4
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 10.7 pts


Last OpinionWay poll :

Hollande : +1.1
Sarkozy : -0.3
Le Pen : +1.9
Mélenchon : -1.9
Bayrou : -0.9
Joly : +0.3
Dupont-Aignan : +0.3
Poutou : -0.9
Arthaud : +0.1
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 7.9 pts


Best pollster by candidate :
- Hollande : IPSOS
- Sarkozy : TNS and IFOP
- Le Pen : TNS
- Mélenchon : Harris
- Bayrou : 5-way tie
- Joly : LH2


Next step will be rating the predictions. ;)

On my blog, I've also calculated totals of spreads (or deviations) for each candidate BUT in a ratio with the result of each candidate: a "mistake" of 0.5 point isn't very important for Hollande, for example.

Harris has published the best last poll, in fact: good order, quite fine results and, especially, least bad numbers on Le Pen and Mélenchon.

For me, it's a surprising winner, rather than TNS-Sofres, OpinionWay, IFOP and IPSOS, though they have done quite well, but each with something wrong. But Harris was already the best for the PS primary... keep that in mind for the next years to come...

CSA, LH2 and BVA were clearly less good than the others.

who bet for a 55-45 ?

is de gaulle's record would be beat ?

One of the very few good things I can see from these results is that at least Melenchon underperformed. He's easily the most horrible of the 5 main candidates.

Hollande: 53%
Sarkozy: 47%

Only compared to the final few weeks of polling. His result was considerably better than would have seemed sane to predict last year and was the best for a Commie candidate since 1981.

BUMP

This thread can welcome any discussion on Sarkozy's reelection or Hollande's greatness...

52 H
48 S
More extreme right wingers reluctantly vote for Sarkozy, more centrists vote for Hollande. Since there are more of the former, Hollande underperfoms the current polls.

Hollande 52.5
Sarkozy 47.5

50.6% Sarkozy
49.4% Hollande

51.5% Hollande
48.5% Sarkozy

Narrows somewhat as Le Pen voter break easier for Sarko, but Hollande eeks out a victory.

Hollande-53%
Sarkozy-46%

I think given the trajectory of this thing that Hollande will likely win Sunday. However, given that alot of surprises have happened so far I wouldn't rule out a Sarkozy win. Ex. it wasn't originally projected that Le Pen would even break 15% but she managed to take nearly 21%. Wouldn't be surprised if these right-wing voters choose to tolerate Sarkozy over someone like Hollande.

hollande 52-48 sarkozy

LOLWUT
Le Pen got 17%...

De Gaulle's didn't set the record. If someone did, it's Pompidou in 1969 (winning 57.5% to Poher's 42.4%).

(Naturally, we're talking about two mainstream candidates in a runoff, which rules out any comparisons to 2002).

And where is that extra 1% going...

dindn't count : left people dont vote a lot between centre-right and right candidate

My mistake I thought it was actually 21%.

From the official thread:


2012 Big Bad Tracker #55 - 4 May 2012   

---

My very last tracker !!! :P      

With raw datas :
Hollande 52.95
Sarkozy 47.05

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 52.97
Sarkozy 47.03

No, I haven't cheated.

Simple average of all the last polls of each pollster, without weighting: 52.75 / 47.25
Weighted average of all the last polls of each pollster: 52.70 / 47.30

---

And my own prediction: Hollande 52.2 / Sarkozy 47.8

I'll go on a more pessimistic note and say:

Hollande, 50.9%
Sarkozy, 49.1%

Hollande: 51.35%
Sarkozy: 48.65%

I will go a bit optimistic. Polls will boost pro-Hollande turnout and result will be:
Hollande: 53.65%
Sarkozy: 46.35%

I won't make a real prediction, but the over/under line seems to be 52.5/47.5 at this point. I still want to believe that people won't get too stupid, that left-wingers will not think that victory is inevitable and will mobilize massively to finally kick Sarko out.

Hollande 51.3
Sarkozy 48.7

Hollande 51.1
Sarkozy 48.9