Talk Elections

Mitt Romney.................................................... 50%
Barack Obama................................................ 43%

Romney-Perry................................................. 50%
Obama-Biden.................................................. 45%

Ron Paul ......................................................... 47%
Barack Obama................................................ 43%

Newt Gingrich ................................................. 47%
Barack Obama................................................ 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_424.pdf

I like that adding Perry to the ticket does nothing for Romney's numbers, and actually increases Obama's.

I know this is PPP, but I can't help but smell an outlier.

Perry's approval rating is actually worse than Obama's, so this poll makes sense.

It's also in line with previous polls.

I think the 2012 Republican margin of victory in Texas will be near or below the 2008 margin and will decrease in 2016.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if Democrats won Texas in 2020/2024? That would probably be the only thing that would get Republicans behind abolishing the Electoral College.

Could Democrats flip Texas to their side this year?

Short answer: No.  Long answer: No.

with growing Hispanic numbers and republicans ailenation of them It wouldn't be surprising for Obama to lose by single digets.The day will come when Texas could be competive by a democrat
again just not Obama.If Perry runs for governor again In 2014 If It Isn't another 2010 he could
actully lose or might even lose during primary.Also Intresting that Romney does better than
Paul In Texas.While Obama gets the same 3 percent who say they would vote for Romney move Into undeceded with Paul.Of course we know Romney Is the nominee but still Intresting.

Chasing after Texas literally makes no sense for the Obama campaign. It's an expensive, expansive state, campaigning there is highly unlikely to flip it, and his presence might actually hurt Democrats downballot.

"Obama leads Romney 56-34 with Hispanics..."

Seems kinda low to me. I thought Obama would be at least cracking 60%.

You could've polled the Republican Senate primary, guys.

They'll probably have primary numbers out in a day or two, as always.

Obama's ceiling in Texas is the 44-46% range.  These numbers really don't surprise me, given the pretty strict rule that undecideds in TX always come home to the GOP.

Texas won't go D. By the time it would have, Republicans will have gotten their demographics sh**t together, and won't be alienating the white-collar yuppies moving into the Sunbelt.

I think TX will be competitive come 2020. I mean the overwhelming growth in the last ten years is from legal hispanics and more liberal whites. If Hispanics voted in the same percentages as whites then I think TX woulda been competitive a lot sooner.

I can't see the R's getting their demographic game in check when the line up is Santorum and Christie and Ryan

After seeing this, it's a very real possibility.

I like how adding Rick Perry to the ticket would hurt Romney's margin.

Texas probably represents about the 410th to 440th electoral votes in an Obama landslide. It goes to President Obama only in the event of a Romney or GOP collapse. The combination of Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin is roughly the mirror image of Texas in this respect. It has likely gone from the fringe of "overpoweringly R" to "decisively R". It could have gone from a state that Republicans can reliably take by double digits to one that Republicans will be lucky to take by high single digits.

A fair warning is to be made about any poll involving Texas: the state is so diverse, straddling regions of the US and containing areas that are poor analogues of any other part of America, and it is so large that fair samples of the state are hard to get. Any poll of Texas, even if it is by a pollster well-regarded elsewhere, is unreliable; even comparisons to polls by the same pollster are suspect.

You know, you're like a liberal hillary2012.

Here we go. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/04/cruz-closing-in-on-dewhurst.html)

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4820120422108

Texas Hispanics are rather more Republican than average.

This election year Texas won't vote Democratic unless there is a major 400+ electoral vote landslide. 

They'll be a 400+ landslide.

Romney's already at 50. He'll get the remaining undecideds.

It would be interesting to see the Republicans try to do electoral math without Texas. That said, fat chance.

Nice how Perry is actually a net negative for Romney here. lol Perry Fail.


Romney probably gets 55% to 60%.

Romney's going to win Texas, and probably by a fairly comfortable margin. Let's not kid ourselves. It might be a swing state by 2020 or 2024, but not 2012.

The poll's crosstabs highlight this. Here are the undecideds in the ideological breakdown of the Obama/Romney matchup:

0% of "very liberal"
1% of "somewhat liberal"
12% of "moderate"
9% of "somewhat conservative"
5% of "very conservative"

Exactly.  The best case for Obama in TX would be something like Romney 54, Obama 45.  I don't think Obama would do that well, mind.  I said that that's the best realistic scenario.

Hence the "fat chance". ;)