Talk Elections

Phoenix, Arizona, April 25, 2012.

In January, President Barack Obama trailed Mitt Romney by six points (43% to 37%) in test elections here in Arizona but now Romney trails Obama by two points (40% to 42%). The gap between them is within the margin of error of the survey and so for all intents and purposes, the numbers mean they are currently in a dead heat. Nonetheless, the eight point swing since January is significant.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/BRC_AZ_0425.pdf

:)

Why are the recent polls fron Texas, Arizona and New Hampshire not posted?

Another GOP must win is competitive? Amazing.

Can someone put this in the database?
Even as someone who had it as a tossup from more or less the beginning, this kind of performance by Obama at this point in the race surprises me.
Not to mention the fact that either national polling is hugely flawed or Romney is winning all of the assumed Republican states by huge margins, given the way that certain national polls have been leaning.
A selective view of the issue could lead someone to infer that Arizona is like D+7, when it should probably be at least R+5.

Actually the more I think about it, the national polling discrepancy is probably just Ramussen.

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Confirms my thinking that Obama may pull this one out.

I'm boycotting the database until Dave fixes my account problem.

Someone else enter the polls then. I'm on strike.

I'd just like to say right now:

OBAMA ISN'T PICKING ANYTHING UP, so stop kidding yourself.

I would say your right, I would like to see also what PPP next poll has which was a tie and Rasmussen reports.

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=420120417018

Looks like junk. I don't think there are that many undecideds. Need more polling to see if it's competitive. 

I think it's probably a good poll.  Arizona is absolutely in play.  Politically it is actually very similar to Colorado, so I'm not surprised.  I don't think Obama will win it, as I don't think he'll win Colorado, but it shows how competitive the region really is.

Truth be told, Obama may hit jackpot in the midwest this year as the Democratic Party goes 1996.  Who knows?

If democrats retained the governor's mansion and the senate seat in 2010, then Obama will have no trouble winning Colorado. Still not convinced about Arizona though.

What do you mean about the democratic party going 1996?

Does winning Indiana in 2008 say that President Obama hit the jackpot in the Midwest?  The last Democratic nominee to do that well or better in the Midwest was LBJ, who won a bunch of states (Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma) that have not yet gone for any Democratic nominee. Indiana and Virginia used to be in that category... whoops!

...If President wins everything that he won in 2008 he gets 359 electoral votes. If he adds   Missouri and Arizona as well he ends up with 380. To get to the 390s he needs Georgia. I just can't see him winning Montana or the Dakotas unless he is also picking up Texas, but if he picks up Texas he has a win more like Eisenhower in 1956 even down to the sorts of states won and lost.

One of the remarkable realities of 2008 is that President Obama won only one state that Dwight Eisenhower ever failed to get -- North Carolina. Aside from the fringe southern States of Kentucky and Missouri, Stevenson won  only states in the then "Solid South".

...President Obama hits the jackpot in electoral votes only if one of three things happen:

1. The Republican nominee has a political collapse.

2. A strong Third Party dilutes the conservative-leaning vote so that President Obama wins some unlikely states (Mississippi?) 39-37-24 or the like.

3. President Obama has answered every fearful question about himself as President with a strong positive answer... and an exclamation point.

Both candidates under 45%?  lol

How do you know?

That said, Rocky Mountain is a pretty terrible pollster IIRC.

Right now I have 3 Romney states on my board.

And those are?

You need to get the rest of the mods to strike... That's not how strikes work. Looks like inks crossed the line though.

UT, ID and WY.

Please tell me you atleast have him winning NE-03.

and Oklahoma

This poll is beyond laughable.  They don't even give their sample cross section