Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Colbert on April 26, 2012, 08:12:20 PM



Title: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Colbert on April 26, 2012, 08:12:20 PM
first, a very nice link, when you'll find all you want about french political parties.

http://www.france-politique.fr/partis-politiques.htm (http://www.france-politique.fr/partis-politiques.htm)


next : the very exciting election, this 2012.

-What will happen to UMP ? Would be divided in two wings ? Would be absorbed by MODEM and FN ? Would the situation be the same ?

-socialist party would respect is agreement with EELV or not ? Would there is AGAIN a artificial sustain to this zombie : the radical left party ?

-What will happen to relationship between PCF and PG in FDG ?

-Is the left would gain majority ?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: RedPrometheus on April 27, 2012, 03:56:43 AM
How do the elections actually work? Is it a FPP system?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on April 27, 2012, 05:04:55 AM
How do the elections actually work? Is it a FPP system?

Sort of. When no candidate makes 50% there's a run-off.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 27, 2012, 06:57:30 AM
How do the elections actually work? Is it a FPP system?

2-round FPP. Candidates getting more than 12.5% of registered voters goes to the 2nd round. Then, the candidates with the most votes wins.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bacon King on April 27, 2012, 08:03:50 AM
How do the elections actually work? Is it a FPP system?

2-round FPP. Candidates getting more than 12.5% of registered voters goes to the 2nd round. Then, the candidates with the most votes wins.

Wikipedia says a candidate can only win in the first round if they get >50% of votes and >25% of registered voters, and it it also specifies that if nobody gets >12.5% of registered voters, then the second round is just the top two candidates. Is this accurate? What happens when a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote but less than 25% of RV's? Or when only a single candidate gets more than 12.5% of RV's?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on April 27, 2012, 08:07:01 AM
How do the elections actually work? Is it a FPP system?

2-round FPP. Candidates getting more than 12.5% of registered voters goes to the 2nd round. Then, the candidates with the most votes wins.

Wikipedia says a candidate can only win in the first round if they get >50% of votes and >25% of registered voters, and it it also specifies that if nobody gets >12.5% of registered voters, then the second round is just the top two candidates. Is this accurate? What happens when a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote but less than 25% of RV's? Or when only a single candidate gets more than 12.5% of RV's?

First case is a run-off, I'm quite sure. I am tempted to think the second would result in a run-off between the two highest placed candidates.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 27, 2012, 08:10:24 AM
How do the elections actually work? Is it a FPP system?

2-round FPP. Candidates getting more than 12.5% of registered voters goes to the 2nd round. Then, the candidates with the most votes wins.

Wikipedia says a candidate can only win in the first round if they get >50% of votes and >25% of registered voters, and it it also specifies that if nobody gets >12.5% of registered voters, then the second round is just the top two candidates. Is this accurate? What happens when a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote but less than 25% of RV's? Or when only a single candidate gets more than 12.5% of RV's?

This is correct. I guess that if the candidate gets more than 50% but less than 25%, the second round is held normally. And if only one gets over 12.5, the runner-up still gets qualified.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on April 27, 2012, 08:19:32 AM
How do the elections actually work? Is it a FPP system?

2-round FPP. Candidates getting more than 12.5% of registered voters goes to the 2nd round. Then, the candidates with the most votes wins.

Wikipedia says a candidate can only win in the first round if they get >50% of votes and >25% of registered voters, and it it also specifies that if nobody gets >12.5% of registered voters, then the second round is just the top two candidates. Is this accurate? What happens when a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote but less than 25% of RV's? Or when only a single candidate gets more than 12.5% of RV's?

This is correct. I guess that if the candidate gets more than 50% but less than 25%, the second round is held normally. And if only one gets over 12.5, the runner-up still gets qualified.

This is correct. Happens in a lot of low-turnout cantonal by-elections, when turnout was very low but the winner got over 50% (sometimes nearer to 60%...) but a runoff was held because he didn't get 25% of registered voters.

BTW, it'd be much more preferable to start this thread after May 6, because prior to May 6 it's only the bad mindless hackery and hypotheticals.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: rob in cal on May 07, 2012, 05:53:46 PM
I think its time to get this thread rolling.  From the recent polls it looks like the UMP has about 30% the FN about 18%  , the leftwing parties about 44-45 % and centrists the rest.  The questions I have are 1) is it a certainty that there will be no FN UMP second round electoral agreement to forestall the dreaded (or hopeful depending on perspective) three cornered contests that I'm sure the Socialists are looking forward to.  Next question, assuming no agreement, can the left win a majority of seats with significantly less than 50% of the vote.
      Or, will the left vote surge now that Holland has won, and they in fact win a popular vote, and seat majority.
     Also, what about the centrists and electoral agreements, would they be more likely to try to link up with the UMP or the left in the second round.
     If the FN vote holds up at 18% nationwide, I'm wondering if their candidates will make it to the second round in an unprecedented amount of districts.  All of this could produce a very unproportional result where the left wins substantially more seats than the UMP and FN combined even though the UMP and FN combined have substantially more votes.   Elections like these are why I support proportional representation, though not the Greek model, of bonus seats, or the high threshold model either.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 07, 2012, 06:26:59 PM
Juppé announced he won't run.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 07, 2012, 06:29:19 PM
Assuming Francois'll resign as the Correze MP and from the Correze council?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 07, 2012, 07:53:57 PM
As far as I know, the President can't have another elective office.
Cumul isn't allowed, for him.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Colbert on May 08, 2012, 01:39:58 AM
as said a lot of UMP leaders, UMP want to make suicide.

It's obvious than with 32%, with a left at 43-44%, only, not an alliance but an agreement of "let the first of the two going on the second round" between UMP and FN' candidates (as want a large majority of UMP's voters)


IMO, we will have a very large victory of the socialist party, in term of seats.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 10, 2012, 07:49:16 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2012/05/10/slogan-ump-legislatives-2012-choisissons-la-france-politique_n_1505307.html?ref=france

Yeah, Let's Choose France because people certainly won't be choosing the UMP.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on May 10, 2012, 11:48:27 PM
Right wingers favored according to BVA:

32.5% UMP
32.0% PS
16.0% FN
10.5% FdG
  5.0 Modem
  4.5% Greens
  1.0% DLR
  0.5% NPA

45.5% Left
49.5% Right
  5.0% Modem

http://www.bva.fr/data/sondage/sondage_fiche/1136/fichier_intention_de_vote_legislatives_et_questions_dactualite_bva-orange-spqr-rtl10f8d.pdf

BTW: Sarko leaves office with a 50-49 approval rating.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on May 10, 2012, 11:55:48 PM
CSA sees pretty much a tie between Left and Right:

33.0% UMP
32.0% PS
12.0% FN
10.0% FdG
  4.0 Modem
  4.0% Greens
  1.0% LO
  0.5% DLR
  0.5% NPA
  3.0% Others

47.5% Left (46% if you exclude LO and NPA)
45.5% Right
  4.0% Modem

http://www.csa.eu/multimedia/data/sondages/data2012/opi20120510-la-course-2012-vague-27-mai-2012.pdf

FN seems kinda low here to me ...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Colbert on May 11, 2012, 03:42:58 AM
as usual, the night of the 1st round, we'll be the shame of the electoral world, we'll be a third-world country, because the ministry of interior will give the results with a lot of those f... "divers droite", "divers gauche", "divers", "others", as all others country give exact results of ALL parties, even those who scored like 0,02 %


Shame on france :/


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 11, 2012, 08:15:17 AM
Right wingers favored according to BVA:

32.5% UMP
32.0% PS
16.0% FN
10.5% FdG
  5.0 Modem
  4.5% Greens
  1.0% DLR
  0.5% NPA

45.5% Left
49.5% Right
  5.0% Modem

http://www.bva.fr/data/sondage/sondage_fiche/1136/fichier_intention_de_vote_legislatives_et_questions_dactualite_bva-orange-spqr-rtl10f8d.pdf

BTW: Sarko leaves office with a 50-49 approval rating.

WTF is wrong with this country ? ???


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 11, 2012, 10:01:33 AM
Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: rob in cal on May 11, 2012, 10:09:33 AM
The potential of the right having  more support than the left is actually similar to the first round of the presidential election.  It will be interesting to see if the left can turn a minority of votes into a majority of seats.  Similar to the Conservatives in Canada, or the British Conservatives of the 1980's.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 11, 2012, 10:19:51 AM
The potential of the right having  more support than the left is actually similar to the first round of the presidential election.  It will be interesting to see if the left can turn a minority of votes into a majority of seats.  Similar to the Conservatives in Canada, or the British Conservatives of the 1980's.

That's the most likely scenario, actually. In the constituencies where the FN will stand in the runoff, they will harm the right and allow the PS to win. I'm still tempted to expect the worse from the voters, though...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Colbert on May 11, 2012, 12:04:15 PM
The potential of the right having  more support than the left is actually similar to the first round of the presidential election.  It will be interesting to see if the left can turn a minority of votes into a majority of seats.  Similar to the Conservatives in Canada, or the British Conservatives of the 1980's.


It happen in 1997 french legislative

and it will happen in 2012. UMP's electorate want an alliance, or at less a pact (?) with FN, but national boad of UMP don't want.

In any case, UMP will not split, because of the law of party financing.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 11, 2012, 02:53:53 PM
Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Being in the UK, of course, unemployment is my priori issue given that its been all aboard the neoliberal merry-go-round for these past 30+ years and the hell to any ordinary person who falls off from the 'Monetarist Recession' onwards given an horrifyingly inadequate welfare safety net


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 11, 2012, 02:55:34 PM
Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Unemployment in Germany is lower than it has been in decades. With virtually no deficit spending.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 11, 2012, 02:58:05 PM
Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Unemployment in Germany is lower than it has been in decades. With virtually no deficit spending.

Yes, the social market does seem to be an improvement on whatever the hell it is the UK has


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 11, 2012, 02:58:49 PM
Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Unemployment in Germany is lower than it has been in decades. With virtually no deficit spending.

National selfishness FTW !


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 11, 2012, 02:59:25 PM
Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Unemployment in Germany is lower than it has been in decades. With virtually no deficit spending.

Yes, the social market does seem to be an improvement on whatever the hell it is the UK has

Well yes, but doesn't that mean (as far as governments have control over these things) Merkel's government is doing a rather good job? If unemployment is what you primarily judge governments on?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 11, 2012, 03:00:45 PM
Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Unemployment in Germany is lower than it has been in decades. With virtually no deficit spending.

National selfishness FTW !

Well Merkel is a German politician elected by the German voters who are interested in German economic well being.

(Although we've had this discussion before, Antonio... ;))


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Beet on May 11, 2012, 03:06:22 PM
Germany is like the shopkeeper who is making a lot of money because he is loaning money to his deadbeat customers to buy more of his goods. The money he is making is only on paper; when it doesn't materialise, it will turn out that a lot of that profit was thrown away.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 11, 2012, 03:07:15 PM
Anyhow, returning to Germany, will the ruthless austerity-drive across the Eurozone not have a detrimental on German exports to the point she may re-enter recession?

Yes. This is indeed one concern. I think I read that this year, exports to outside the Eurozone equalized the effects of lossed profits from within the EU. Not certain that will continue, of course.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 11, 2012, 03:15:42 PM
Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Unemployment in Germany is lower than it has been in decades. With virtually no deficit spending.

National selfishness FTW !

Well Merkel is a German politician elected by the German voters who are interested in German economic well being.

(Although we've had this discussion before, Antonio... ;))

Well, yeah. When your chancellor and her silly ideology will have destroyed the entire European economy (Germany comprised) and turned Europe into the sh*thole of the world, maybe we'll resume this discussion. ;)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 11, 2012, 03:39:45 PM
I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: rob in cal on May 11, 2012, 05:12:50 PM
Yeah, I'd like to know where the marginal seats are most likely to be, probably we wont' know until after the first round and if a FN candidate makes it.  I'm guessing alot of three way marginals will be out there in the FN heartland areas.  It will be interesting to see how many Socialist candidates end up winning with 38-45% in the second round.  Shades of France in 1997 or even 1996 in Italy where the left won dozens of seats due to a split in the rightwing vote both in the North and in the Naples area.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 11, 2012, 05:23:30 PM
For all these stuff, you have to ask Gaël or Fabien. I really know nothing about the seat-by-seats detail of these elections (but I'd be very interested in learning about it ;)).


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on May 11, 2012, 05:32:55 PM
If I didn't work all day/week, work all evening on my blog and be in Montreal all weekend; I could put something together. But I should, given that journalists have proven that they know absolutely zilch about legislative elections, even less than what they know about presidential elections.

At any rate, the big showdown might/will be Panzergirl vs. Melenchon in Henin-Beaumont. If that contest doesn't end in a Hamilton/Burr duel, I don't know what would. Also, the people who say that there will 300+ triangulaires are idiots who should get laid instead of saying such things.

Also, it will apparently be stupid day all day long, because Panzergirl's loonies are running under the ultra tinpot label "Rassemblement Bleu Marine" and the Bearnese Moron seems bent on destroying his own party and is running his fools under the "Centre pour la France" label.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 11, 2012, 07:18:50 PM
At any rate, the big showdown might/will be Panzergirl vs. Melenchon in Henin-Beaumont.

For real?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: batmacumba on May 11, 2012, 08:02:27 PM
This should be scheduled on MMA championship.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bacon King on May 12, 2012, 01:04:53 AM
At any rate, the big showdown might/will be Panzergirl vs. Melenchon in Henin-Beaumont.

For real?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/11/us-france-election-clash-idUSBRE84A0TX20120511

Melanchon to make up his mind today, apparently.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 12, 2012, 01:10:16 AM
Sarkozy's approvals kind of make sense in that lame ducks usually get a slight boost from people who aren't angry at them anymore and don't consider them a threat, I think the first Bush had approvals in the low 40s around election day 1992 but were in the mid-50s by the time he left office. Didn't happen with his son of course, but he was far more controversial and polarizing.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on May 12, 2012, 05:53:37 AM
Melenchon has confirmed today he will run in Henin Beaumont


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 12, 2012, 06:32:35 AM
Sarkozy's approvals kind of make sense in that lame ducks usually get a slight boost from people who aren't angry at them anymore and don't consider them a threat, I think the first Bush had approvals in the low 40s around election day 1992 but were in the mid-50s by the time he left office. Didn't happen with his son of course, but he was far more controversial and polarizing.

Well, kind of. Not before he left office...but I think he was back at like 45-50 a year later...?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: SPQR on May 12, 2012, 07:46:28 AM
Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Unemployment in Germany is lower than it has been in decades. With virtually no deficit spending.

National selfishness FTW !

Well Merkel is a German politician elected by the German voters who are interested in German economic well being.

(Although we've had this discussion before, Antonio... ;))

Well, yeah. When your chancellor and her silly ideology will have destroyed the entire European economy (Germany comprised) and turned Europe into the sh*thole of the world, maybe we'll resume this discussion. ;)
Word...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on May 12, 2012, 10:01:41 AM
I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English :P , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 12, 2012, 10:24:36 AM
I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English :P , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

Wasn't it 20 MPs ? Or were the rules loosened again recently ?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 12, 2012, 03:39:03 PM
I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English :P , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

Wasn't it 20 MPs ? Or were the rules loosened again recently ?

It was lowered in the rules reform of 2009. PS wanted to lower it at 8, UMP wanted to keep it at 20, but Sarkozy wanted 15.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 12, 2012, 04:45:40 PM
I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English :P , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

Wasn't it 20 MPs ? Or were the rules loosened again recently ?

It was lowered in the rules reform of 2009. PS wanted to lower it at 8, UMP wanted to keep it at 20, but Sarkozy wanted 15.

8 ? What were they smoking ?!? :o

20 was fine, really.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 12, 2012, 04:50:16 PM
I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English :P , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

Wasn't it 20 MPs ? Or were the rules loosened again recently ?

It was lowered in the rules reform of 2009. PS wanted to lower it at 8, UMP wanted to keep it at 20, but Sarkozy wanted 15.

8 ? What were they smoking ?!? :o

20 was fine, really.

There is 8 commissions, so, their idea were as soon you have enough MPs to seat in all commissions, you should be able to form a group.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 12, 2012, 04:57:12 PM
I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English :P , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

Wasn't it 20 MPs ? Or were the rules loosened again recently ?

It was lowered in the rules reform of 2009. PS wanted to lower it at 8, UMP wanted to keep it at 20, but Sarkozy wanted 15.

8 ? What were they smoking ?!? :o

20 was fine, really.

There is 8 commissions, so, their idea were as soon you have enough MPs to seat in all commissions, you should be able to form a group.

Yikes... That makes as much sense as a Politico post.

I can't believe I'm with the UMP on an issue. :P


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Colbert on May 12, 2012, 08:59:25 PM
It will be funny to see UMP don't call for voting against mélenchon...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 12, 2012, 09:10:07 PM
It will be funny to see UMP don't call for voting against mélenchon...

I'm not convinced than he will finish in front of the socialist candidate...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Colbert on May 12, 2012, 09:43:53 PM
just for fun (and 'cause i'm addict to make maps...) : the national assembly IF the results of the legislative would be the same as the 1st round of the presidential, and IF the voting methodology would be 100% proportionnal.

A funny assembly, IMO

()


Don't you think so ? ^^


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: rob in cal on May 14, 2012, 12:46:35 AM
Colbert, in such a parliamentary situation that you outlined, with no majority on either the left or the right, what kind of government would emerge?  Would Modem work with the left or the right?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on May 14, 2012, 01:27:26 AM
A minority government with PS/EE-LV/MoDem, probably.

Back to the 4th Republic :)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on May 14, 2012, 01:29:41 AM
I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English :P , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

Wasn't it 20 MPs ? Or were the rules loosened again recently ?

It was lowered in the rules reform of 2009. PS wanted to lower it at 8, UMP wanted to keep it at 20, but Sarkozy wanted 15.

8 ? What were they smoking ?!? :o

20 was fine, really.

There is 8 commissions, so, their idea were as soon you have enough MPs to seat in all commissions, you should be able to form a group.

Yikes... That makes as much sense as a Politico post.

I can't believe I'm with the UMP on an issue. :P

Blame the utter fascination of socialists for the little Greens whom they are so afraid of, just because they make great gains in European and regional elections, as usual.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Colbert on May 14, 2012, 07:10:38 AM
Colbert, in such a parliamentary situation that you outlined, with no majority on either the left or the right, what kind of government would emerge?  Would Modem work with the left or the right?

IMOO i think the modem would have worked with the left, but fight with modem vs mélenchon would have made them quickly get out

this assemby seems to me ungovernable (if this word exist in english)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 15, 2012, 03:24:16 PM
Colbert, in such a parliamentary situation that you outlined, with no majority on either the left or the right, what kind of government would emerge?  Would Modem work with the left or the right?

IMOO i think the modem would have worked with the left, but fight with modem vs mélenchon would have made them quickly get out

this assemby seems to me ungovernable (if this word exist in english)
Lol I guess that's why Hollande doesn't want full PR and only wants a bit of it? 


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 15, 2012, 03:28:10 PM
Colbert, in such a parliamentary situation that you outlined, with no majority on either the left or the right, what kind of government would emerge?  Would Modem work with the left or the right?

IMOO i think the modem would have worked with the left, but fight with modem vs mélenchon would have made them quickly get out

this assemby seems to me ungovernable (if this word exist in english)
Lol I guess that's why Hollande doesn't want full PR and only wants a bit of it? 

None of the two big parties want PR (for obvious reasons), nor does Bayrou. Bayrou, however, was a bit more serious in his proposal for a share of PR, whereas the two big parties have promised it at every elections and immediately forgotten about it once elected. It is probably a way to court green (for the left) and FN (for the right) voters.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 16, 2012, 09:15:36 PM
Well, Ayrault is the PM as of today, and his new cabinet is mainly moderates.  Fabius is foreign minister, Moscovici is Finance Minister, and Mountebourg is Industry minister.  Aubry was completely left out.  She was offered a super-ministry of education, youth, and culture, but she didn't want to be in the government if she couldn't be PM.  Seems like the bad blood isn't really behind her and Hollande after all. 

What puzzles me is, why give a guy who opposed EU membership the foreign affairs portfolio?  I mean, Aryault seems like he'd be a much better pick for that.  Fabius could be finance minister.  And Aubry could be PM.  Or even if her as PM is out of the question, then you could just give Fabius his old job back.  Seems like it would make a lot more sense. 


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 16, 2012, 09:21:02 PM
Oh, great.

Right what Socialists needed.

A crybaby which pout in its corner because it didn't got the biggest toy of the store.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on May 16, 2012, 09:36:00 PM
So, anybody interested in a seat-by-seat profile/prediction on my part or something close to that?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 17, 2012, 02:29:01 AM
So, anybody interested in a seat-by-seat profile/prediction on my part or something close to that?

Hell yes !!!


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Serenity Now on May 17, 2012, 05:45:50 AM
So, anybody interested in a seat-by-seat profile/prediction on my part or something close to that?

I'm ridiculously interested, but I'm afraid I'm not able to provide something similar in return.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Jens on May 17, 2012, 07:48:32 AM
So, anybody interested in a seat-by-seat profile/prediction on my part or something close to that?
Yes, indeed ( and I do enjoy reading your blogs too)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Colbert on May 17, 2012, 08:53:22 AM

Yes, indeed ( and I do enjoy reading your blogs too)


me too, that's the best election blog

but really, as french, you could write it in french TOO


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: rob in cal on May 17, 2012, 10:56:08 AM
Looking forward to it.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on May 18, 2012, 12:31:19 PM
Am I right in thinking that the deadline to present candidates expired this evening??

PS, Greens and Front de Gauche have failed to reach an agreement to present single candidates in constituencies where FN could beat the Left into third place. Basically PCF and PG wanted a certain number of winnable seats, Greens didn't want to concede too many constituencies they have already assured and the PS didn't want to give away too many winnable areas to parties that poll less than half of them.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Colbert on May 19, 2012, 01:43:29 PM
poll institutes seems on strike :/


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: rob in cal on May 23, 2012, 11:10:53 AM
IFOP with new numbers today, looks pretty much unchanged, with parties of the right with a small lead over the combined left, which I suppose equals a socialist victory.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: DL on May 23, 2012, 01:33:15 PM
The parties of "the right" only have a lead if you are counting the Front National as part of "the right". The FN will refuse to withdraw any of its candidates before the second round and that will set up three way fights in every single seats where the FN had over 15% in the first round (i.e. most of them).


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on May 23, 2012, 04:48:04 PM
The parties of "the right" only have a lead if you are counting the Front National as part of "the right". The FN will refuse to withdraw any of its candidates before the second round and that will set up three way fights in every single seats where the FN had over 15% in the first round (i.e. most of them).

The last part of that comment is pretty stupid, so I won't bother answering it or else I'll get angry again. "National" polling for these elections already piss me off enough...

Anyway, you people would do better to read my predictions: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153783.0


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Colbert on May 23, 2012, 07:30:52 PM
as usual, the result of this legislative will depend ONLY of turnout level.

High : 60 % of chance for left to lose
low : 100 % of chance for left to win


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on May 24, 2012, 05:44:42 PM
The left can't lose.

I agree with Hash on the fact that national polls aren't really accurate, but they at least give us a general trend and it's really bad for the UMP at the moment.
It's worse than 1997 for the UMP. In the 1st round, of course.
The 2nd i sanother thing: maybe if the "pink wave" is too high in the 1st, some rightist will GOTV and make a "correction" in the 2nd round.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on May 29, 2012, 05:58:08 AM
New poll by Ipsos:

50.0% Right (35% UMP, 15% FN)
46.5% Left (31% PS, 8% FdG, 6% Greens, 1.5% other extreme left-wingers)
  2.0% MoDem
  1.5% Others

http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/attachments/rapport_barometre_leg_v1.pdf


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on May 29, 2012, 06:06:47 AM
Adding UMP and FN has, well, absolutely no sense. At all. Definitely.

With a coherent 45%, the left is en route for a larger victory than 1997, larger than the right's victory in 2007 and probably not far from the right's victory in 2002.

As I've said one week ago, all this will have to be reassessed after the 1st round and when we'll know all the candidacies (which should be declared before Tuesday night, on the 12th of June).


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 29, 2012, 09:24:10 AM
Adding UMP and FN has, well, absolutely no sense. At all. Definitely.

Ditto.


Quote
With a coherent 45%, the left is en route for a larger victory than 1997, larger than the right's victory in 2007 and probably not far from the right's victory in 2002.

That's an interesting discrepancy because, extrapolating from Gaël's constituency-by-constituency analysis, I come to the conclusion that the left's victory should be lower than in 1997. So looking at national number, the left is far ahead, while if you look at individual races it's almost a tossup.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: lilTommy on May 29, 2012, 09:52:55 AM
Quote
With a coherent 45%, the left is en route for a larger victory than 1997, larger than the right's victory in 2007 and probably not far from the right's victory in 2002.

That's an interesting discrepancy because, extrapolating from Gaël's constituency-by-constituency analysis, I come to the conclusion that the left's victory should be lower than in 1997. So looking at national number, the left is far ahead, while if you look at individual races it's almost a tossup.
[/quote]

From following Hash DAILY, hes doing some fantastic work, and from somone who only knows french politics form a superficial perspective its been a wonderful education.... we can all thank Marleix's gerrymandering the constituencies (attempt in some cases) where you have huge safe left seats "reserves", but fewer competative ones (at least on paper right) leading to a large number of toss-ups where i would expect the local issues/candidates to be more important?

Also, i have a question... whats a suppleant? why are some/most parties basically presenting two candidates?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 29, 2012, 10:02:13 AM
Quote
Quote
With a coherent 45%, the left is en route for a larger victory than 1997, larger than the right's victory in 2007 and probably not far from the right's victory in 2002.

That's an interesting discrepancy because, extrapolating from Gaël's constituency-by-constituency analysis, I come to the conclusion that the left's victory should be lower than in 1997. So looking at national number, the left is far ahead, while if you look at individual races it's almost a tossup.

From following Hash DAILY, hes doing some fantastic work, and from somone who only knows french politics form a superficial perspective its been a wonderful education.... we can all thank Marleix's gerrymandering the constituencies (attempt in some cases) where you have huge safe left seats "reserves", but fewer competative ones (at least on paper right) leading to a large number of toss-ups where i would expect the local issues/candidates to be more important?

Also, i have a question... whats a suppleant? why are some/most parties basically presenting two candidates?

A "suppléant" is a substitute. If the sitting MP resigns or passes away, the suppléant can take his seat without the need for a by-election. If the candidate is a sitting minister, the suppléant is basically the actual candidate (because a minister cannot be a MP in France, so he will resign from his seat immediately after winning election).

There might be several candidates from the same parties if there are "dissidents", ie people who haven't got the party endorsement but run nonetheless. It can happen especially often if the national party nominates someone unpopular at the local level.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: lilTommy on May 29, 2012, 10:19:46 AM
Thanks! i thought it was more the second option (minister), i didn't know they can by-pass a by-election all together... interesting.

... it seems that happens all the time, dissidents running, many look to be because they don't support the parties choice of another parties candidate (ie the PS endorsing the EELV and so on) or personal clashes and infighting.

Any news on the campaigns? who becomes the main spokesperson now? i'm looking from a NA perspective here; is Hollande actively campaigning and promoting PS policies? or is Aubry the main PS leader out-and-about? is Sarko the face of the UMP during the campaign? are policy directions even hashed out?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 29, 2012, 10:35:33 AM
Hollande has been extremely silent since his inauguration. I guess that's part of the "normal" strategy (ie, highlighting the difference with Sarkozy and his constant speaking). Anyways, the President has never (directly) taken the lead of the legislative campaign, and has generally refrained from even commenting on it. 5th Republic political traditions emphasize on the President being "above parties" (which is of course bullsh*t, but still plays an important role).

Thus, there are two people who could naturally take the lead of a legislative campaign now. Either the Prime Minister (Ayrault), who, being the emanation (and somehow leader) of the parliamentary majority, can have a legitimity in doing so, or the party's leader (Aubry). It has never cleared up which of those two should prevail, and considering Aubry is pissed off, this might lead to a few conflicts inside the PS. However, thus far the campaign has been so low-key that the issue hasn't really erupted. Hopefully it never will...

On the right, the leader is very clearly Jean-François Copé, the party's general secretary whose well-known ambition is to become President in 2017. However, several people in the party (chiefly former PM Fillon) are also trying to prepare for 2017, and are somewhat undermining his authority.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: rob in cal on May 29, 2012, 11:13:08 AM
Anyone have any idea what kind of parties/candidates are meant by the "others" or divers that is getting 1.5 % of the vote in the last poll?
I agree that the FN and UMP vote can't be lumped together as one coherent bloc since they won't work together, however if in fact their combined vote, plus that of all other small right wing parties is bigger than that going to the left wing parties, it will underscore the fact that the NA will not be a true reflection of the electorate.  Of course since it was the right that abolished proportional representation in 1986, this would be a form of poetic justice.  Sooner or later, one would think, the right wing parties will embrace proportional representation. 


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 29, 2012, 11:41:59 AM
In 2007, the parliamentary right won only 46% of the votes. It still won a comfortable majority.
In 2002, the right won 43% and 69%.
In 1997, the left won 45% and 55%.

It almost never happens in France that the winning coalition gets a majority of the vote in the first round. That's what happens almost always in countries using FPP. Didn't the labour not even win a majority of the vote in 1997 ?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 29, 2012, 12:10:07 PM
Hollande has been extremely silent since his inauguration.

Aaaaaaand just after posting this, I learn that he will give his first interview this evening. I guess he will avoid the topic of legislatives, though.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on May 29, 2012, 12:39:05 PM
Adding UMP and FN has, well, absolutely no sense. At all. Definitely.

Ditto.


Quote
With a coherent 45%, the left is en route for a larger victory than 1997, larger than the right's victory in 2007 and probably not far from the right's victory in 2002.

That's an interesting discrepancy because, extrapolating from Gaël's constituency-by-constituency analysis, I come to the conclusion that the left's victory should be lower than in 1997. So looking at national number, the left is far ahead, while if you look at individual races it's almost a tossup.

Well, Hash hasn't made Nord, Ile-de-France (sure, there is Yvelines, but there is the rest too...) any department of the South-West so far... And if you consider also Corse or Meuse, normally rightist areas, the left will be up, up, up.
Plus, Hash is a tad conservative, I think.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 03, 2012, 09:56:06 AM
The Journal of Tahiti gives the following resullts for Polynesie constituencies

Constituency I

Mme Teaki DUPONT-TEIKIV  1131 votes
M. Karl REGURON (VEC) 408
M. Gustave HEITAA (FG)  104
Mme Poema TANG-PIDOUX (UMP) 931
M. Quito BRAUN-ORTEGA (DVD) 1258
M. Pierre FREBAULT (REG) 5512
M. Philip SCHYLE (DVD) 2533
M. Louis FREBAULT (DVG) 2758
Mme Nicole BOUTEAU (CEN) 2547
M. Teiva FORTELEONI (AUT) 358
M. Pierre MARCHESINI (AUT) 421
M. Edouard FRITCH (DVD) 11049
M. Robert ANANIA (DVD) 249
M. Ronald TEROROTUA (DVG) 222
M. Pita BENNETT (DVD) 374
Mme Tevahine MAIROTO (DVD) 311

So 36.63% for Fritch who will go to a run off against Frébault

Constituency II

Mme Sandra LEVY-AGAMI (DVD) 1324
M. Teiva MANUTAHI (DVD) 2713
M. Philippe NEUFFER (REG) 6330
M. Jaros OTCENASEK (VEC) 301
M. Tearii ALPHA (DVD) 1953
M. Jimmy PANIE (DVD) 492
M. Manea TUAHU (DVD) 926
M. Antonio PEREZ (DVD) 520
M. Edouard POROI (AUT) 188
M. Clarenntz VERNAUDON (DVD) 679
M. Bruno SANDRAS (UMP) 2421
M. Antonio SOARES-PIRES (DVD) 284
M. Jonas TAHUAITU (DVD) 7601
Mme Hinano TUNOA (AUT) 372

29.12% for Tahaitu and 24.25% for Neuffeur. Incumbent Sandras has been eliminated. Reading his bio on wikipedia, I am more surprised by the fact he was an official candidate.


Constituency III

M. René HOFFER (AUT) 108
M. Monil TETUANUI (DVG) 206
M. Gaston TETUANUI (AUT) 379
M. Nicolas BERTHOLON (DVD) 637
M. Jean-Christophe BOUISSOU (DVD) 1762
Mme Angèle TERIITAU (VEC) 346
M. Taimana ELLACOTT (AUT) 595
M. Eric MINARDI (FN) 327
M. Daniel TUAHU (DVD) 113
M. Teriiorai OOPA (DVD) 10
M. Teva ROHFRITSCH (PRV) 2793
M. Tauhiti NENA (REG) 8545
M. Gaston TONG SANG (UMP) 4604
M. John TEFAN (DVD) 878
M. Jean-Paul TUAIVA (DVD) 6692

So run off between Neva (30.52%) and Tuaiva (23.9%).


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 03, 2012, 10:11:03 AM
In my constituency, the PS candidate would have 40% in the votes cast in person, against 20% for Fredo. Overall turnout would be 22%, including 14% by interwebs. She seems to be doing much better than Hollande, while Fredo is polling way less than Sarko. Servan-Schreiber would apparently be in third, seemingly with Balkany trailing. In South America, the EELV-PS candidate seems very optimistic.

Turnout seems downright horrible (single digits or low double digits) around the world. This likely opens the door to weird fluke results.

http://frenchmorning.com/ny/2012/06/02/soiree-electorale-en-direct/

http://www.slate.fr/france/57045/legislatives-francais-etranger-estimations


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 03, 2012, 02:49:55 PM
In my constituency, the PS candidate would have 40% in the votes cast in person, against 20% for Fredo. Overall turnout would be 22%, including 14% by interwebs. She seems to be doing much better than Hollande, while Fredo is polling way less than Sarko. Servan-Schreiber would apparently be in third, seemingly with Balkany trailing. In South America, the EELV-PS candidate seems very optimistic.

Turnout seems downright horrible (single digits or low double digits) around the world. This likely opens the door to weird fluke results.

http://frenchmorning.com/ny/2012/06/02/soiree-electorale-en-direct/

http://www.slate.fr/france/57045/legislatives-francais-etranger-estimations


40% ? I guess that's good news ahead of the runoff ? ;)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 03, 2012, 02:57:08 PM
In my constituency, the PS candidate would have 40% in the votes cast in person, against 20% for Fredo. Overall turnout would be 22%, including 14% by interwebs. She seems to be doing much better than Hollande, while Fredo is polling way less than Sarko. Servan-Schreiber would apparently be in third, seemingly with Balkany trailing. In South America, the EELV-PS candidate seems very optimistic.

Turnout seems downright horrible (single digits or low double digits) around the world. This likely opens the door to weird fluke results.

http://frenchmorning.com/ny/2012/06/02/soiree-electorale-en-direct/

http://www.slate.fr/france/57045/legislatives-francais-etranger-estimations


40% ? I guess that's good news ahead of the runoff ? ;)

Quite. I've always said that Fredo is a terrible candidate when everybody else was banking on a legitimist UMP vote in the constituency. I would have been worried if Fredo had been kicked out by a stronger guy like Servan-Schreiber, but all the divers droite looneys cancelled each other out and I think that their voters probably won't care much about voting in the runoff, especially for a candidate like Fredo who was the focus of all attacks by the DVD candidates. Turnout is so pathetically low at this point that anything is possible, but I'm confident that the PS will win here. Not that I care all that much, but just the thought of having Fredo as my 'other' MP when my 'real' MP is retarded enough as it is... it's just torture.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 03, 2012, 03:16:33 PM
In my constituency, the PS candidate would have 40% in the votes cast in person, against 20% for Fredo. Overall turnout would be 22%, including 14% by interwebs. She seems to be doing much better than Hollande, while Fredo is polling way less than Sarko. Servan-Schreiber would apparently be in third, seemingly with Balkany trailing. In South America, the EELV-PS candidate seems very optimistic.

Turnout seems downright horrible (single digits or low double digits) around the world. This likely opens the door to weird fluke results.

http://frenchmorning.com/ny/2012/06/02/soiree-electorale-en-direct/

http://www.slate.fr/france/57045/legislatives-francais-etranger-estimations


40% ? I guess that's good news ahead of the runoff ? ;)

Quite. I've always said that Fredo is a terrible candidate when everybody else was banking on a legitimist UMP vote in the constituency. I would have been worried if Fredo had been kicked out by a stronger guy like Servan-Schreiber, but all the divers droite looneys cancelled each other out and I think that their voters probably won't care much about voting in the runoff, especially for a candidate like Fredo who was the focus of all attacks by the DVD candidates. Turnout is so pathetically low at this point that anything is possible, but I'm confident that the PS will win here. Not that I care all that much, but just the thought of having Fredo as my 'other' MP when my 'real' MP is retarded enough as it is... it's just torture.

Indeed. Watching retards getting their ass kicked is one of the best moments in politics (so rare, unfortunately).


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 10, 2012, 05:29:19 AM
Just voted for the PS sacrificial lamb in my overwhelmingly right-wing constituency : Jacques Lollioz (yeah, good one for the LOLgislatives site ;)). If we break 25% this will probably be a nice result for the PS.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 10, 2012, 07:23:55 AM
Allez Valérie ! ;D

Voted at midday for my own UMP sacrificial lamb :(
Stupid redistricting... I could have voted for a centrist in a swinging constituency :(


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 10, 2012, 07:26:21 AM
Allez Valérie ! ;D

Voted at midday for my own UMP sacrificial lamb :(
Stupid redistricting... I could have voted for a centrist in a swinging constituency :(

We should trade our constituencies off. ;D


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 11, 2012, 12:12:47 PM
So let's start with Limousin because it should be easy enough. I've decided to try giving the constituencies names, just to amuse myself. Don't take it too seriously.

Creuse 1 (Marche) - PS
Corrèze 1 (Tulle-Ussel) - PS won in the first round.
Corrèze 2 (Brive-la-Gaillarde) - PS
Haute-Vienne 1 (Limoges-Ambazac) - PS
Haute-Vienne 2 (Limoges-Saint-Junien) - PS
Haute-Vieene 3 (Limoges-Bellac) - PS

A most difficult task, as you can imagine.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 11, 2012, 01:15:44 PM
Just voted for the PS sacrificial lamb in my overwhelmingly right-wing constituency : Jacques Lollioz (yeah, good one for the LOLgislatives site ;)). If we break 25% this will probably be a nice result for the PS.

Then, you should be quite happy, because it's over 25!


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 11, 2012, 01:19:38 PM
And unlike MA-3 Republicans in 2010, and NY-22 Democrats this year, your sacrificial lamb is at least not named Lamb. :)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 11, 2012, 02:29:28 PM
Just voted for the PS sacrificial lamb in my overwhelmingly right-wing constituency : Jacques Lollioz (yeah, good one for the LOLgislatives site ;)). If we break 25% this will probably be a nice result for the PS.

Then, you should be quite happy, because it's over 25!

Over 30 actually ! :D Didn't expect it. We won't win, but maybe we can give Pécresse a run for her money.


And unlike MA-3 Republicans in 2010, and NY-22 Democrats this year, your sacrificial lamb is at least not named Lamb. :)

Check out the first three letters of his name : that's not much better. :P


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 11, 2012, 06:29:28 PM
The PS candidate in Vaucluse III decided to ignore Aubry and stand in the second round claiming that withdrawing would be like choosing between plague and cholera.

Paris IV: Brigitte Kuster withdraws. So Bernard Debré is basically elected

Bouche du Rhone XIII: as expected PS withdraws to support FG. So FG vs FN duel

Bouche du Rhone XVI: UMP withdraws calling to stop the PS candidate...so calling to vote for FN

Yvelines III: DVD withdraws to support Guaino (who will easily win the runoff)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 12, 2012, 03:22:28 AM
Marine Le Pen has urged her voters to defeat

François Pupponi (PS, Val-d'Oise)
Jack Lang (PS, Vosges)
Ségolène Neuville PS, Pyrennées-Orientales)
Slimane Tir (EELV, Nord).
Manuel Aeschlimann (UMP, Hauts-de-Seine)
Georges Tron (UMP, Essonne)
Xavier Bertrand (UMP, Aisne)
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet (UMP, Essonne)

She hinted that a couple of FN candidates qualified for triangulaires may withdraw


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 12, 2012, 03:42:55 AM
Oh, wow, I just now realized why Jack Lang's name had always seemed so familiar.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 12, 2012, 03:51:33 AM
NKM isn't on the list ? I thought she was Le Pen's pet peeve in the UMP.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 12, 2012, 04:22:57 AM
NKM isn't on the list ? I thought she was Le Pen's pet peeve in the UMP.

yup, she is. I forgot her in the cut and paste


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 12, 2012, 05:07:46 AM
NKM isn't on the list ? I thought she was Le Pen's pet peeve in the UMP.

She has even a "special treatment"... as Le Pen explicitly call for the FN voters for vote for the socialist candidate...
I guess (hope?) it will have the opposite effect.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 12, 2012, 05:09:54 AM
If the UMP candidate Mourrut doesn't drop in Gard-2, the best chance of victory for the FN will be Vaucluse-3, where Panzermiss (Big Daddy's grand-daughter) is a candidate.

And do you know why ? Because the socialist candidate, who has zero chance to be elected, is staying in the race...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 12, 2012, 05:18:09 AM
NKM isn't on the list ? I thought she was Le Pen's pet peeve in the UMP.

She has even a "special treatment"... as Le Pen explicitly call for the FN voters for vote for the socialist candidate...
I guess (hope?) it will have the opposite effect.

Of all UMP bigwigs, NKM is certainly not the one I want to see fall.


And considering a UMP candidate did drop out for the sake of helping the FN to defeat the PS, don't play the moral card on Vaucluse-3.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 12, 2012, 05:22:42 AM
I can't really blame the PS candidate in Vaucluse-3, considering the UMP incumbent is basically a frontiste in UMP clothing.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 12, 2012, 06:04:49 AM
Valerie Trierweiler apparently gives her encouragement to Falorni on twitter (Courage à Olivier Falorni qui n'a pas démérité, qui se bat aux côtés des rochelais depuis tant d' années dans un engagement désintéressé).

If the UMP candidate Mourrut doesn't drop in Gard-2, the best chance of victory for the FN will be Vaucluse-3, where Panzermiss (Big Daddy's grand-daughter) is a candidate.

FN asks UMP to withdraw from Gard II and in exchange they would drop out in Gard III


in Saint Denis, PS withdraws against Buffet. Same thing for the Green against François Asensi.
Jean-Pierre Brard to withdraw too (along with no hoper FG candidate in constituency I and VI) to leave PS candidates alone.
The local federation has asked Patrick Braouezec to stay in the race in the second constituency even if the agreement asked him to drop out.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 12, 2012, 06:28:06 AM
Valerie Trierweiler apparently gives her encouragement to Falorni on twitter (Courage à Olivier Falorni qui n'a pas démérité, qui se bat aux côtés des rochelais depuis tant d' années dans un engagement désintéressé).

LOL, France.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 12, 2012, 07:00:37 AM
Now, I don't get it. Good news, but still wut ?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zanas on June 12, 2012, 07:07:03 AM
You know what ? I'd like lil' miss sunshine MMLP to be elected in Vaucluse-3. Among my reasons :

- she's hot, I'm so depressed to say it, but she is, really.
- let's send a 22-year-old in her law studies to the National Assembly, she will certainly succeed in both her careers...
- let's see how a youngster like this can stand in the "questions au gouvernement" next to the vieux-briscards
- for finals, let the FN have some kind of political responsibility, and not one where they can do harm, just to see them fail badly
- she's so hot, that's disgusting.... :-(


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 12, 2012, 07:09:48 AM
You know what ? I'd like lil' miss sunshine MMLP to be elected in Vaucluse-3. Among my reasons :

- she's hot, I'm so depressed to say it, but she is, really.
- let's send a 22-year-old in her law studies to the National Assembly, she will certainly succeed in both her careers...
- let's see how a youngster like this can stand in the "questions au gouvernement" next to the vieux-briscards
- for finals, let the FN have some kind of political responsibility, and not one where they can do harm, just to see them fail badly
- she's so hot, that's disgusting.... :-(

Welcome to the forum, Zanas ! :)

I can't agree with you but... if you claim she is that hot you need to post a picture. :P


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 12, 2012, 09:37:01 AM
Perpignan-Rivesaltes: FN withdraws


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zanas on June 12, 2012, 10:08:08 AM
http ://www .marianne2.fr/photo/art/default/957793-1132498.jpg?v=1339357951

(remove the spaces, the forum won't let me post a link cause I'm a noob apparently :D)

That, from political standards, is pretty hot.

Such a pity her head is so full of sh**t...

Don't get me wrong, I'm a leftie, FG activist, but you've got to admit some things ;)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: politicus on June 12, 2012, 10:39:55 AM
()

Tought I would help you out..

Compared to how good looking many French women are, how is that hot? And why is hotness a political parameter for you?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 12, 2012, 10:50:23 AM
Indeed. When you have Duflot, Vallaud-Belkacem and Filippetti, who needs her ?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 12, 2012, 12:37:14 PM
Vaucluse-5: FN drops out to stop the Left. Marine doesn't seem to approuve it

Aisne-1: the PS candidate didn't drop out even if his national party told him to do so and support Dosiere


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zanas on June 12, 2012, 01:47:17 PM
Wow wow wow wow wow !

I must have a thing for blondes cause I still prefer that to Duflot or Filippetti (though I could follow you on Vallaud-Belkacem...)

BUT

that's not in any way political

AND

I want her politically dead, as soon as possible.

We seem to be among educated people here, let's try not to put words in each other's mouths ;)

Also, I made a list of 92 "swing" circonscriptions that might be worth following on next Sunday. I'll post it here shortly.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 12, 2012, 02:45:30 PM
Great ! :) We already have two great constituency forecasters (Fabien aka big bad fab and Gaël aka Hashemite), so a third one is more than welcome to spice things up.

BTW, Duflot is definitely the best.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 12, 2012, 03:49:02 PM
MMLP is definitely quite hot, but she has that weird Le Pen grin/nose/eyes which would remind me of Grand-Daddy every time. On the other hand; Duflot, Filippetti and Vallaud-Belkacem are all very hot, as is Sylvia Pinel.

Not sure I would qualify as a "great" predictor. My predictions were rather bad.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 12, 2012, 03:52:49 PM
Not sure I would qualify as a "great" predictor. My predictions were rather bad.

Can you tell us a bit more ? What kind of places did go against your predictions, and on which direction ? I'm sure you're exagerating, anyways. ;)

And you still get to rectify your predictions for the 2nd round. :)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 12, 2012, 03:56:43 PM
Ah, the internet.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zanas on June 12, 2012, 04:03:51 PM
Here are the first ones.

Legend :

Département-n° constituency (T means triangulaire) (potential surprise winner with forecast vote percentage with my tambouille ;)) Famous candidate if there is one

I've taken big bad fab's last updated map (on his French-speaking blog) into account as to who would be a surprise winner in each constituency. Therefore, it may not seem a surprise to you, and it may even be an incumbent. G means gauche, that is left, D means droite, that is right. I'm not putting the third party in triangulaires if it is irrelevant as to who will win.

If you have (G48), it means the right still has a good shot at winning this seat, since I'm projecting 48% in the runoff for the left, but some reasons make me think (media exposure, local situation, massive mobilization or demotivation on either side, good or bad vote transfers on eather side, and so on...) that it's still winnable for the left, and would be a noticeable achievement.

Some of these constituencies could achieve or unachieve a department-grand-slam. I'll try to advertise this by displaying for example G-GS if it achieves a left grand slam in the department, or D-GS if it prevents a right grand slam (it will almost certainly never be the other way around...)

Do not hesitate to discuss ! Enjoy !

Ain-1 (G50,5) D-GS
Ain-2 T (G39 D38,8) D-GS
Aisne-2 (G52) Bertrand
Alpes-M-2 (G48,5) Aschieri D-GS
Bouches-du-R-1 (G49,2)
12 T (G38 D34)
15 T (G36 D38)
Calvados-5 (G49,8)
Charente-M-4 (G48) Bussereau
Côte d'Or-2 (G50,6)
Côtes d'Armor-3 (G49,2) G-GS

Oh and one last thing : these are not wishes, these are projections. Well, some are both, and some are not. :)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on June 12, 2012, 05:10:07 PM
Talking about cute politicians... Here in Spain, we have Maria Gonzalez Veracruz (PSOE)

()

,

Carme Chacón (PSOE- a bit too old, if you ask me)

()

and, definitely, Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo (PP), who has been disappeared (politically speaking) since 2008:

()

That's my essential contribution to this thread, LoL.

___

Oh, and what a First Lady France has... What a jerk1! She'd better had shut up, now PS will have to demonstrate they're united against the right (which is false).


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zanas on June 12, 2012, 05:16:36 PM
After this... charming interlude, here is the following :

Doubs-3 (G50,04)
Eure-3 (G50,3) Morin
Eure-et-Loir-1 (G48,7) D-GS
Gard-2 (G38 FN37) Collard
Gironde-8 (G48,5) G-GS
Hérault-6 (G39 D37) G-GS
Indre-et-Loire-5 (G48,5) G-GS
Jura-1 (G49,4) D-GS
Loire-Atlantique-7 (G49,6) G-GS
Loiret-1 (G49,9) D-GS
2 (G50,7) D-GS
6 (G49,6) D-GS
Manche-1 (G48,5) Le Rachinel
3 (G49,99) (yes, literally !)
Marne-1 (G49,9) D-GS
Meurthe-et-Moselle-5 (D48,7) Morano

I'll only be doing mainland France, which excepts Corsica, overseas and abroad-living citizens, beacause I can't handle how things work in those barbaric places... :P


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 12, 2012, 05:17:09 PM
NKM isn't on the list ? I thought she was Le Pen's pet peeve in the UMP.

She has even a "special treatment"... as Le Pen explicitly call for the FN voters for vote for the socialist candidate...
I guess (hope?) it will have the opposite effect.

Of all UMP bigwigs, NKM is certainly not the one I want to see fall.


And considering a UMP candidate did drop out for the sake of helping the FN to defeat the PS, don't play the moral card on Vaucluse-3.

I play the moral card, because the PS doesn't stop playing it.
But we'd better ask for a statement from our Présidente, I think ;)



Zanas, I look forward to your own totals, indeed. Thanks for joining us here also ;) Even though I'm fed up with all these leftists ;D

On Ain-1, it's really razor-thin, I agree. On Ain-2, the UMP has a margin, even in a triangulaire and there will be some "vote utile" from FN to the UMP.

On Aisne, I don't know how you reach such a total for the left. Sure, the FN voters are more leftist here, but still. And small far-left candidates, all the more with their current very low results, won't transfer well to the PS, anuwhere.

As for Alpes-Maritimes, it's the same thing. Beware of FN transfers, which are higher here than in Aisne or even Moselle, for the right. What is more, the "divers écologistses" are often, in the South-East, some rihgtists or far-rightists disguised, just to gather votes and then public money :P Their voters are more like Bardot than Jadot :) So they don't qualify exactly in the "left" column. On the other hand, Ginésy is an old man. But I think he's able to still make it without too much problems.

Bouches-du-Rhône-1: I must concede it's more a hope than a real prediction ;D But I also remember that Masse is part off the "system" and that Vichnievsky is opposed to him and that Boyer may appeal to the FN more than usual.
In the 15th, I think there is a lil' advantage for the UMP.
In the 12th, I must concede the simple calculus is against the UMP, no problem. But it's my guts here that tell me that there will be some vote utile for the UMP. Still, I'm a more than careful man and I think I'll change my prediction :P Well done, my friend ;)

On Calvados, all the votes for the DVG won't transfer to the Green and with enough votes from DVD and FN, the UMP should win.

On Charente-Maritime, Bussereau will win in the 4th (good transfers from both the MoDem and the FN for him; the FN is more bourgeois and rural there) AND in the 1st ;D

On Côtes-d'Armor, Le Fur is surprisingly resilient and he can make it, for the same reasons as Bussereau in a way.

On Côte d'Or, my transfer calculus gives me a lil' advantage for the right. We are here with a bourgeois MoDem and a FN from rural conservatives.



Please don't derail the thread with (admittedly nice) photos. Please.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 12, 2012, 05:53:24 PM
After this... charming interlude, here is the following :

Doubs-3 (G50,04)
Eure-3 (G50,3) Morin
Eure-et-Loir-1 (G48,7) D-GS
Gard-2 (G38 FN37) Collard
Gironde-8 (G48,5) G-GS
Hérault-6 (G39 D37) G-GS
Indre-et-Loire-5 (G48,5) G-GS
Jura-1 (G49,4) D-GS
Loire-Atlantique-7 (G49,6) G-GS
Loiret-1 (G49,9) D-GS
2 (G50,7) D-GS
6 (G49,6) D-GS
Manche-1 (G48,5) Le Rachinel
3 (G49,99) (yes, literally !)
Marne-1 (G49,9) D-GS
Meurthe-et-Moselle-5 (D48,7) Morano

I'll only be doing mainland France, which excepts Corsica, overseas and abroad-living citizens, beacause I can't handle how things work in those barbaric places... :P


On Doubs, it's really on a par, but probably with bad transfers from the FN to the UMP. I still think it will tilt towards the UMP in the end, but I'm very weak to argue...

On Eure-et-Loir, I've already answered on my blog. Right territory, I think Gorges will make it with 4 or 5 votes ;D

On Eure, I hope you'll be right ;D, but unfortunately, Morin has an appeal even towards FN voters locally.

On Gard-2, Collard won't make it: there is a roof that FN can't break, I'm sure.

On Gironde (I'm from Bordeaux, you know ;)), I just can't stand the right might lose everything... :'( Foulon isn't a good candidate (he isn't even a good baker any longer :P) but I think he can win in what is now a pure tossup.

On Hérault, always the same explanation: some "vote utile" from the FN voters. But I acknowledge I'm weak here.

On Indre-et-Loire, Briand has a good appeal towards FN voters (who are broadly rural or exurban here). He can win, I'm confident.

On Jura, there is a small gap when you apply the usual transfers. And Pélissard is a very well entrenched man locally.

On Loire-Atlantique, it can't be entirely for the left :P And, when I calculate transfers from FN and MoDem, it's OK for the UMP candidate.

On Manche, in both the constituencies, there are some rebellious minds in the countryside currently, but FN, DVD and Le Rachinel voters will transfer well to the UMP in the end, I think.

On Marne-1, it's razor-thin, but I think transfers will be good for Robinet.

On Meurthe-et-Moselle, I rather wish than predict a defeat for Morano :P But I also think she is behaving in a far excessive way, even for her traditional voters... And given the swinging past of this constituency...

On Loiret, my heart bleeds... It's really very tight in these 3 constituencies, but I think there is a slight advantage for the right in the 1st and 2nd. I'm weaker on the 6th and still hesitating...



Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 12, 2012, 07:13:49 PM
I know that nobody ever reads my verbal diarrhea, but haha, my post on the runoff has a useful map for our little predictions:

()

(potential Sarkozyst vote vs actual runoff Sarkozyst vote, methodology explained in the post).


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 12, 2012, 07:46:43 PM
Yeah, maybe I'm too optimistic for the UMP in Somme, for example. And too pessimistic in, let's say, Isère.
But, sometimes, it's time to go to bed :P


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zanas on June 13, 2012, 01:40:56 AM
I think this map might hint to Morano's reelection, very sadly... If only we could get rid of her permanently, she's a shame for our country.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on June 13, 2012, 03:04:37 AM
And why is hotness a political parameter for you?

You're a woman, that's why you don't understand. ;)



Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 13, 2012, 03:18:31 AM
And why is hotness a political parameter for you?

You're a woman, that's why you don't understand. ;)



Please. You are giving us a reputation as superficial people.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 13, 2012, 03:25:06 AM
So how much seats will the Tweetergate cost us ? My rational brain tells me that this isn't a political issue and that there's no reason this could turn voters agains the left. But my guts tell me people are idiots and I've learnt to always expect the worst.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 13, 2012, 04:16:26 AM
Yeah, maybe I'm too optimistic for the UMP in Somme, for example. And too pessimistic in, let's say, Isère.
But, sometimes, it's time to go to bed :P

I was about to change Vosges-4 from PS to UMP, but, no, considering your map, Hash :)
But should I give Somme-2 to EE-LV ?

Zanas, we want the end of your own calculus ;)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: adma on June 13, 2012, 06:38:04 AM
And why is hotness a political parameter for you?

You're a woman, that's why you don't understand. ;)



Please. You are giving us a reputation as superficial people.

Though in the case of Schwingy Le Pen, it may indeed be a bid for FN types to vote with their crotches--they being the sort who *would* go for "Hey, I'm a hottie!  Vote for me!" (at least in theory)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zanas on June 13, 2012, 07:47:15 AM
Though in the case of Schwingy Le Pen, it may indeed be a bid for FN types to vote with their crotches--they being the sort who *would* go for "Hey, I'm a hottie!  Vote for me!" (at least in theory)
You know what ? I was thinking to myself just that. This electorate is quite capable of this.

Anyways, here is my complete list of constituencies worth following. I'm posting the whole of it here even though I started earlier, it should be easier to check out for you. The mode d'emploi is on hte previous page.

Ain-1 (G50,5) D-GS
Ain-2 T (G39 D38,8) D-GS
Aisne-2 (G52) Bertrand
Alpes-M-2 (G48,5) Aschieri D-GS
Bouches-du-R-1 (G49,2)
12 T (G38 D34)
15 T (G36 D38)
Calvados-5 (G49,8)
Charente-M-4 (G48) Bussereau
Côte d'Or-2 (G50,6)
Côtes d'Armor-3 (G49,2) G-GS
Doubs-3 (G50,04)
Eure-3 (G50,3) Morin
Eure-et-Loir-1 (G48,7) D-GS
Gard-2 (G38 FN37) Collard
Gironde-8 (G48,5) G-GS
Hérault-6 (G39 D37) G-GS
Indre-et-Loire-5 (G48,5) G-GS
Jura-1 (G49,4) D-GS
Loire-Atlantique-7 (G49,6) G-GS
Loiret-1 (G49,9) D-GS
2 (G50,7) D-GS
6 (G49,6) D-GS
Manche-1 (G48,5) Le Rachinel
3 (G49,99)
Marne-1 (G49,9) D-GS
Meurthe-et-Moselle-5 (D48,7) Morano
Meuse-2 (D51,7) D-GS
Morbihan-2 (G49) G-GS
Moselle-2 (G47,5) (I live next to it so my hopes are up…)
7 (G39 D37)
9 (G49)
Nord-14 (G48,8)
15 (D49,4)
21 (G47) (long shot)
Oise-7 (G49)
Pas-de-Calais-11 (FN48,4) Le Pen, Mélenchon
Puy-de-Dôme-3 (D48) G-GS Louis Giscard d’Estaing
Pyrénées-A-4 (G49,5) G-GS Lassalle
Bas-Rhin-2 (D47)
3 (G49,4)
Rhône-4 (G48)
12 (G48,7)
Saône-et-Loire-1 (G50,6) G-GS if both
4 (G49,6) G-GS if both
Sarthe-1 (G51,5) G-GS
5 (D49) G-GS
Paris-1 (G48)
Seine-Maritime-2 (G50,5) G-GS
10 (D48,5) G-GS
Seine-et-Marne-1 (G50,5)
3 (G48) Jégo
7 (D48,4)
Yvelines-12 (G48,5) Douillet
Somme-2 (G52)
4 (G49)
Tarn-1 (G50,3) G-GS
Var-2 (G38 D40) D-GS
Vaucluse-3 (FN34 D33 G33) Marion Maréchal-Le Pen
Vendée-2 (G50,1) D-GS
Yonne-2 (G49,5)
Essonne-4 (G50,2) Kosciusko-Morizet
Hauts-de-Seine-10 (G48,5) Santini
12 (D49,5)
13 (G51) Devedjian
Val-de-Marne-4 (G50,8)
5 (G49,97)
Val d'Oise-1 (D51)
2 (G51)
6 (G48,5)

Since I cowardly based my own predictions on yours, big bad fab, and I was too lazy to run through overseas circos, I'll need your numbers in order to deduce my final prognosis. ;)

Feel free to discuss !


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on June 13, 2012, 05:08:17 PM
So how much seats will the Tweetergate cost us?

What the heck is tweetergate? And when did -gate start to be used for political scandals outisde of the US? :P 


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 13, 2012, 05:14:03 PM
So how much seats will the Tweetergate cost us?

What the heck is tweetergate? And when did -gate start to be used for political scandals outisde of the US? :P 

Valérie Trierwiler, the spouse of the President, tweeted support to Olivier Falorni, a dissident socialist candidate against Ségolène Royal, 2007 socialist candidate to the presidential and former spouse of Hollande.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 13, 2012, 05:14:54 PM
So how much seats will the Tweetergate cost us?

What the heck is tweetergate? And when did -gate start to be used for political scandals outisde of the US? :P  

The most ridiculous "political scandal" ever.

Basically, there is a PS vs. PS battle in one constituency (one of the two candidates being Ségolène Royal). Every PS leader has been actively campaigning for Ségolène with a dedication never seen in any other situation. And Hollande himself has made it pretty clear he supports her too.

Then, yesterday, Hollande's girlfriend (the "first lady") state on Tweeter her support for the other PS guy.

In an ideal word, the wife of the president would be entitled to support whoever she wants and her personal preference shouldn't be subject to political commentary (since she's not, you know, a politician), but this being a place filled with idiots, it has been labeled as a major "gaffe" for Hollande and the PS. Dumb story, really.

Oh, and "tweetergate" is a phrase I just invented. I like making up buzzwords. :P


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 13, 2012, 05:18:49 PM
It is poor form from Trierweiler to be fair. Just looks like petty teenager "omg, I hate the ex-girlfriend" stuff.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 13, 2012, 05:25:43 PM
It is poor form from Trierweiler to be fair. Just looks like petty teenager "omg, I hate the ex-girlfriend" stuff.

Yes, definitely. And I can't believe she was stupid enough not to realize the impact of her comments. Still, in an ideal world nobody should give a damn.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on June 13, 2012, 05:31:37 PM

Indeed. That's even sillier than I thought I'd be.
Well you can always trust the media to make a camel out of a straw.
Hardly think it'll make people switch from PS to UMP or FN. Maybe from PS to EELV. :P

EDIT: And I who got my hopes up this election would suddenly take an exciting turn.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 13, 2012, 05:49:08 PM
Well, it's less silly than the Royal camp saying than Falorni will seat in the UMP group.
Hopefully he wins and we are rid of that witch.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 13, 2012, 06:20:43 PM
()

My latest and probably last prediction...

FG 10
regionalists/independentists 3

EE-LV 21

PS 286
PRG 12
DVG 25
(total 323, well over the 289 threshold)

MoDem 2

UMP 176
NC 15
DVD 26
(total 217)

FN 0
EXD 1


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on June 13, 2012, 06:45:47 PM
And when did -gate start to be used for political scandals outisde of the US? :P  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scandals_with_%22-gate%22_suffix


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 13, 2012, 08:14:43 PM
Sorry if this has already been posted (I've checked and haven't seen it, though I could've missed it), but unfortunately Melenchon got 3rd place in Pas-de-Calais'-11.  I mean, I'd be a thorough PS supporter if I were French (unless Manuel Valls ends up becoming Hollande's successor, in which case I'd switch to either the Greens or the FdG), but I'd at least like to see Melenchon in parliament. 
Results:
Marine Le Pen (FN)-42.22%
Philippe Kemel (PS)-23.72%
Jean-Luc Melenchon (FdG)-21.46%
Jean Urbaniak (Divers droite)-7.86%
Marine Tondelier (EELV)-1.60%
Michael Vast (DLR)-0.92%
Others-2.22% (all of whom are left-wing or center-leftish...the PRG candidate is the most right-wing of them). 
Total Left: 49.00%
Total right (including FN): 51.00%
Eesh.  Looks like the runoff is going to be close.  Kemel will have to take more than 1% of the non-FN right-wing vote to win assuming none of the FdG voters opt for Le Pen (and judging by what she stands for, I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of them do).  So, the numbers seem to be pointing towards a narrow Kemel victory. 


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: adma on June 13, 2012, 09:40:54 PM
And isn't Urbaniak a bit of a moderate-maverick by "droite" standards?, If so, I can see how his vote wouldn't be wholesale Marine...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zuza on June 13, 2012, 09:43:04 PM
Urbaniak is from centrist MoDem (though also backed by UMP), so I think that a large part (probably even majority) of his voters will vote for Kemel and Kemel will comfortably win.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 14, 2012, 03:59:49 AM
Fabien seems to think the seat tally remains roughly the same (354-217 in favor of the left), which is reassuring, but I know he always tends to consider the worst option. If he thinks the left wins 350 seats, I'd bet on 330-340. :P


Sorry if this has already been posted (I've checked and haven't seen it, though I could've missed it), but unfortunately Melenchon got 3rd place in Pas-de-Calais'-11.  I mean, I'd be a thorough PS supporter if I were French (unless Manuel Valls ends up becoming Hollande's successor, in which case I'd switch to either the Greens or the FdG), but I'd at least like to see Melenchon in parliament. 
Results:
Marine Le Pen (FN)-42.22%
Philippe Kemel (PS)-23.72%
Jean-Luc Melenchon (FdG)-21.46%
Jean Urbaniak (Divers droite)-7.86%
Marine Tondelier (EELV)-1.60%
Michael Vast (DLR)-0.92%
Others-2.22% (all of whom are left-wing or center-leftish...the PRG candidate is the most right-wing of them). 
Total Left: 49.00%
Total right (including FN): 51.00%
Eesh.  Looks like the runoff is going to be close.  Kemel will have to take more than 1% of the non-FN right-wing vote to win assuming none of the FdG voters opt for Le Pen (and judging by what she stands for, I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of them do).  So, the numbers seem to be pointing towards a narrow Kemel victory.

Pre-election polls hinted that Kémel was a stronger candidate than Mélenchon in a runoff against Le Pen, winning by over 55%. However, it should be noted that Le Pen significantly overperformed its polling (polls gave her around 35%), so I really don't know how it will end up. I really hope enough people will grow a brain by sunday...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zanas on June 14, 2012, 04:23:55 AM
Actually, Marine Le Pen isn't the best shot at having FN députés. I would see her fail at 48,5-49 tops.

Much more is expected of her niece in Vaucluse, who really has a good chance of getting to the Palais Bourbon (at 22...), and hideous lawyer Collard in Gard, who also stands a good chance of being elected.

Since big bad fab published his projected results, I'll post mine :

FG 10
reg/ind 3

EELV 23

PS-PRG-DVG 338

Modem 2

Right 199

FN 1
Other extreme right 1

This would be a very comfortable majority, in between the likes of those of 2002 and the incumbent 2007 one.

It would fail just a few seats short of the 3/5 majority of the whole Congress (Assemblée+Sénat) that is needed to reform the Constitution.

But that'll probably a bit lower, since I'm a leftist and a very optimistic one !


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 14, 2012, 04:31:53 AM
Oh yeah, if you are projecting a majority even bigger than what Fabien expects, you know something is wrong. ;)

I don't know what I would give to see such a result, anyways...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zuza on June 14, 2012, 04:36:14 AM
Le Pen significantly overperformed its polling

While Urbaniak significantly underperformed, so probably most of those his voters who were ready to vote for Le Pen, voted for her already in 1st round...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 14, 2012, 04:49:42 AM
Le Pen significantly overperformed its polling

While Urbaniak significantly underperformed, so probably most of those his voters who were ready to vote for Le Pen, voted for her already in 1st round...

True. I really hope you are right.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 14, 2012, 05:36:57 AM
People are a bit late on the pickup? Anyhow, It's fun to assign ideological labels like "centrist" or "centre-right" to voters in a place which has lost all sense of left-right politics in recent years, but in reality the bulk of the remnants of Urbaniak's vote are a personal vote in Noyelles-Godault (where he won 40.3% against 31.5% for Marine), where he has been mayor since 1983. And Noyelles-Godault is hardly any different from the other communes. Marine won 32% there and won 48% in the 2007 runoff.

I should be posting my predictions tonight.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 14, 2012, 05:39:17 AM
People are a bit late on the pickup? Anyhow, It's fun to assign ideological labels like "centrist" or "centre-right" to voters in a place which has lost all sense of left-right politics in recent years, but in reality the bulk of the remnants of Urbaniak's vote are a personal vote in Noyelles-Godault (where he won 40.3% against 31.5% for Marine), where he has been mayor since 1983. And Noyelles-Godault is hardly any different from the other communes. Marine won 32% there and won 48% in the 2007 runoff.

I should be posting my predictions tonight.

Great. :) I am in urgent need to relativize my euphoria post-Fab and Zanas' predictions. :P


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 14, 2012, 06:12:15 AM
Elected by default because they will be the only candidates on the ballot papers on Sunday

Paris- 4: Bernard Debré (UMP)
Seine St Denis- 1: Bruno Le Roux (PS)
Seine St Denis- 4: Marie-George Buffet (FG)
Seine St Denis-6: Elizabeth Guigou (PS)
Seine St Denis-7: Razzy Hammadi (PS)
Seine St Denis-11 François Asensi (FG)
Hauts de Seine-1: Alexis Bachelay (PS)
Cher-2: Nicolas Sansu (FG)
Nord-16: Jean Jacques Candelier (FG)
Nord-17: Marc Dolez (FG)
Nord-19: Anne-Lise Dufour-Tonini (PS)
Val de Marne-10: Jean Luc Laurent (MRC)
Val de Marne- 11: Jean-Yves Le Bouillonnec (PS)
Seine Maritime-3: Luce Pane (PS)
Seine Maritime-8: Catherine Troallic (PS)



Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 14, 2012, 06:21:35 AM
Can we find a list of all qualified candidates who dropped out somewhere ? I'm curious to see how it will affect certain races.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 14, 2012, 06:44:28 AM
19th Nord might as well count as another loss for the PCF; a really, really good hold for the PS all things considered.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 14, 2012, 06:47:42 AM
Can we find a list of all qualified candidates who dropped out somewhere ? I'm curious to see how it will affect certain races.

Didier Codorniou (PS dissident in Aude-2
René Raimondi (PS) in Bouches du Rhone-13
Roland Chassain (UMP) in Bouchces du Rhone-16
Magali Deval (Greens) in Finistère-3
Christian Troadec (PS dissident) in Finistère-6
Alain Fillola (PS dissident) in Haute-Garonne-3
Michel Grall (UMP) in Morbihan-2
Hervé Poher (PS dissident) in Pas de Calais-6
Irina Kortanek (FN) in Pyrénées Orientales-2
Olivier Delaporte (UMP dissident) in Yvelines-3
Martine Fuiorili Beaunier (FN) in Vaucluse-5
Marie Helene Amiable (FG) in Hauts de Seine- 11

+ the 12 challengers of the candidates listed in my previous post (but I don't think you are interested in them and so I will save my time not to list all of them).


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 14, 2012, 07:05:13 AM
So that asshole Karimet didn't drop out ? Couldn't that cost Dosière the election ? :(


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 14, 2012, 10:34:14 AM
()

Belle et rebelle!

Only entering in that thread right now, and couldn't resist to post about it (La Rochelle staying faithful to its motto!). The 1st time I heard Royal was running in La Rochelle, I thought '.k she definitely wanna show as a martyr??', if there was one leftist spot in France that wasn't sized for her, that precisely was that one. A rather modern and pragmatic leftist spirit with a strong bobo influence, then the total opposite of her mix of old school French teacher style and populist 'Antillais Televangelist' style.

And all the media agitation that is going on since the twit of Hollande's wife supporting her opponent, and all politicians, till the PM, more or less forced to react to this is just...insane (and one more hint, if that was needed, that this political system is just ****** up).

Would have been funny to have her doing the teacher at the presidencey of the Assemblée though, I wonder who could it be instead of her. Well, you never know, but it seems done for her so far.

After the loss of Aubry, the loss of Royal and it's the hypocrisy about the unity of PS which is blasting a bit more.

That being said, the biggest stake to me in those elections remains whether the 'fantastic trio' of the new FN will do it.

Seems to remain to doable for Marine Le Pen. A very discredited PS, a candidate of the classical Right which is a Centrist, while the Right is generally more and more turning Far-Right, only 8% to catch. Seems doable.

Same for Collard in Gard. Outside of the good FN scores in Présidentielle there, Collard is totally fit for the classical Southerner Rightist/Far-rightism populism, he has a regional implantation since he was lawyer in Marseille, a nationwide very good recognition, the UMP facing him is totally crumbling in term of age (amusing how his name fits him...), and more of that this is a triangular.

I'd be less sure for the last big name of the new FN, Fillipot, but still. The guy began to gain a significant enough media exposure since the last Présidentielle campaign, he showed as a very good debater (and I think he can still improve), who has a rather strong political culture, who is young but not too much, and who hasn't an extremist background (he was Chevènementist). He calls for UMP voters to vote for him, maybe that wouldn't be easy for him, but might be doable, he runs in the good region.

If one of those 3 enters in, then this new FN could consider it a victory, each one of this 3 could very well succeed to excite the whole assembly each time they speak, and in the same time showing all the unfairness and the contradictions of our institutions and of our classical politicians. Perfect for Marine's conquest of the Right if so, they would have a lot of visibility without the slightest power. And no matter they have 1, 2 or 10 députés, in all cases they could complain about the total lack of representativity of this assembly given they did almost 1/5 of the vote and couldn't even be able to form a group in the assembly, especially when you see the totally disproportioned place that could have Greens compared to their 2,3%.

Other than that I'd be surprised PS hasn't a clear majority, Greens enslaved themselves and FdG wouldn't be strong enough to have a lot of sits, Mélenchon kinda screwed himself with his rather stupid personal confrontation. A movement like FdG might very well have some future, but they still have too much contradictions within them. So far based a lot on a leader (which just took a slap, and which also have rather strong personal contradictions, notably on the international scale, not to speak about too strong ties to too old political references) while its promotes some schemes in which the leadership of one man is not the most important, and the big contradictions with the old PCF stuck in its very old psychological schemes, which remains an important part of this movement, notably thanks to its ability to mobilize militants (even if the Présidentielles showed that people supporting this movement went far beyond the classical PCF). And well, I'd consider more and more that the years to come on the short term are for the Far-Right first, a golden path is opened to Marine Le Pen and her 'ideas', let's see if she can walk it, Municipales and Européennes elections could be a major test.

3 days to know which big mouthes we gonna have in the Assemblée, 2 years for the PS or for Marine Le Pen to convince...

Oh and, I haven't followed this whole thing closely, so I don't know at all whether this could be possible but I'd love that there'd be enough PS dissidents to, eventually, form a group in the assembly. ^^. One more thing that would show how ****** up are our institutions...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 14, 2012, 10:42:36 AM
So that asshole Karimet didn't drop out ? Couldn't that cost Dosière the election ? :(

The PS has dropped Karimet and is now officially supporting Dosière. So, the "vote utile" and the usual discipline will be enough for Dosière to win.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 14, 2012, 10:49:00 AM
People are a bit late on the pickup? Anyhow, It's fun to assign ideological labels like "centrist" or "centre-right" to voters in a place which has lost all sense of left-right politics in recent years, but in reality the bulk of the remnants of Urbaniak's vote are a personal vote in Noyelles-Godault (where he won 40.3% against 31.5% for Marine), where he has been mayor since 1983. And Noyelles-Godault is hardly any different from the other communes. Marine won 32% there and won 48% in the 2007 runoff.


You're damn right, as usual, but, well, if she is able to gain another 17 points in Noyelles while being stuck to 48 anywhere else (or let's say 42 in Carvin and 52 in Hénin), she won't make it anyway.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 14, 2012, 12:22:49 PM
One of my bros, who lives in La Rochelle, just posted this link to me:

http://www.arretsurimages.net/vite.php?id=14017

13 headlines for Hollande's wife twit.

...insane.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 14, 2012, 12:25:33 PM
One of my bros, who lives in La Rochelle, just posted this link to me:

http://www.arretsurimages.net/vite.php?id=14017

13 headlines for Hollande's wife twit.

...insane.

Indeed, this is ridiculous.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 14, 2012, 02:10:46 PM
Welcome to elections in the era of 24 news and all that. See also 'bigotgate'. Labour gained Rochdale anyway.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zanas on June 14, 2012, 02:17:27 PM
I don't think Philippot has even the slightest shot at being elected. It's Forbach. The mayor is running against him, which could get some voters to finally wake up on the 2nd round et get to vote (not to mention PS-members attached to any middle-sized municipality, employees of the mairie, and so on...). In Forbach, people are bound to vote either for FN or FG or PS indifferently, cause they just don't have any ing clue as to how any ing thing works in politics !

And there are also lots of cités, which tend to vote between 20 and 40% in whatever election you throw at them, but could get to the polling stations a little bit more on this particular Sunday, and not to vote for Philippot of course...

Finally, Forbach-Freyming old mining constituency will have a left representative which correspond to its history, even if it's by sheer dumb luck... And I believe the neighbouring one of the same type, Creutzwald-Carling, will too in a triangulaire.

Other than that, I believe Le Pen will strike 48, maybe 49, but will fail. But Collard clearly has a chance, and I also believe Maréchal-Le Pen has a chance in Vaucluse, perhaps their best one...

As to the touiteurgate, the second constituency poll published this week is again in La Rochelle, which is in fact a rather dull constituency politically... I don't want to live in this country anymore (but others might be even worst, so I'll stay anyway...)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 14, 2012, 02:45:01 PM
Yeah, I don't know enough about the constituency itself for Philippot (sorry for his name in my other post, might be part of those that hardly enters in my mind), I based most of my argumentation on his personality and the momentum he could have taken from the Présidentielle campaign which indeed might not be enough, but you never know.

Yeah, MMLP, Maréchal, well, I didn't count her because I don't know her enough to say whether she could have a charismatic impact on the Assemblée, while I'm quite sure that even if only one of the 3 I mentioned do it, it could shake it. But yes, objectively she seems to have a chance.

And who knows about some eventual surprises here or there about FN Rassemblement Bleu Marine...

In case a charismatic FN one enters, it will be also interesting to see the behavior of the UMP députés of the Droite Populaire (far-right wing of the UMP) in parliamentary debates, basically there is no major difference between them and FN RBM (which if I believe Aliot wouldn't keep this name after the elections), heck there is even less and less difference, at least in term of tone and of kind of topics, between the Sarkozist/Coppé/Morano UMP and MLP (lol, even Fillon went to support Morano in Moselle after she said that UMP and FN voters were closer from each other than UMP was to PS, and I don't know if it was me or Fillon who could hardly do what he was doing but I just couldn't find a freaking sense in the sentence he stated about that on France Info), this could put all of this in light and helps an eventual conquest of the Right by Marine Le Pen.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 14, 2012, 03:16:33 PM
Alright, here's a little map I've been working on. Candidates qualified for the second round (including those who dropped out) :

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=6972)
(click for higher resolution)

Left wins by 1st round : 25 (dark red)
Left VS left : 22 (red)
Left VS other : 7 (pink)
Left VS far-right : 21 (orange)
Left VS left VS far-right : 1 (light orange)
Left VS left VS right : 8 (purplish fuchsia)
Left VS right : 426 (purple)
Left VS right VS other : 2 (light purple)
Left VS right VS right : 4 (purplish blue)
Left VS right VS far-right : 31 (yellow)
Right VS far-right : 9 (turquoise)
Right VS other : 5 (light blue)
Right VS right : 5 (blue)
Right wins by 1st round : 11 (dark blue)

Which means the left is qualified in 547 races, the right for 501, the far-right for 62, other in 14. There are 36 first round winners, 495 two-way races and 46 three-way races.

Even though it's a pretty useless map, comments are welcome since I spent more than three days to finish it. :P


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 14, 2012, 03:20:24 PM
It's the opposite of useless. Tells a great deal about politics in France these days.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zanas on June 14, 2012, 03:25:08 PM
It's not useless at all ! You can clearly see a yellow-orange north-east and south-east, the surroundings of Limousin and piedmont of Pyrénées with dark red, the traditional left strongholds since... like forever (at least 1848 for Limousin, maybe even 1790 if you look this thoroughly). You see that the "banlieue rouge" AND the "banlieue bleue" of Paris (red and blue districts, which are opposit colors than in an American context by the way...) have weakened to leave way to a traditional left-right (purple in your map) fight nearly everywhere around Paris.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 14, 2012, 03:57:34 PM
There's no chance in hell that the moron Flipout or whatever his name is will win. His first round result (26%) was actually a pretty crappy result for some heavily flaunted star candidate, and a duel is always near-impossible for the FN to win. While the coal mining basin of Forbach/Freyming certainly isn't historically left-wing, it voting for the left is imaginable and has happened in the past (1997).

That retarded douchebag Collard will probably (hopefully?) lose, but it would be fitting for possibly the worst place in the country to have the worst deputy ever.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 14, 2012, 05:58:54 PM
Anyway, here are my predictions (which are very close to Fab's):

By party winner (using my own labels, instead of the Ministry's horrible stupidities, and separating all Radicals from the UMP):
()

FG 10
MUP 1
MRC 4
EELV 19
MIM (reg.) 1
PNC (reg.) 1

PS 291
DVG (PS dissidents) 18
PRG 12
(PS+PRG+DVG 321)
LEFT 357

MoDem 2

AC 1
NC 14
PRV 12 (including a few elected under UMP banners, under as DVD, others as PRAD... lol france)

UMP 173
DVD 12
DLR 2
PCD 1
MPF 1
RIGHT 216

Ligue du Sud/divers EXD 1
FN 1

By seat ratings (first round winners counted as 'safe'):
()

Safe left 220
Left favoured 46
Lean left 51

Tossup - left edge 40

Centre favoured 1
Lean centre 1

Tossup - right edge 38

Lean right 54
Right favoured 59
Safe right 65

Lean EXD 1
Tossup - EXD edge 1

General comments:

I've again hesitated a long time before putting too many seats as 'safe right', so 'right favoured' is close to safe, but I chickened out. On the other hand, I was quite liberal in placing seats as safe left, even those with defending UMP incumbents, but in some places their results were so bad that it's impossible to have them win.

I basically used Fab's methodology and relied heavily on my map to determine FN and centrist transfers to the right. I assumed very good transfers to the PS from the FG and EELV, and mediocre transfers from the far-leftie fringe. I didn't really take into account additional or lesser turnout, but I don't think there should be game-changing turnout swings in that many constituencies. In triangulaires with the FN, using the lessons of 2010 and 2011 rather than the history of 1997, I am assuming that the FN vote either remains stable or trends up rather than down.

As for EELV, I am assuming that, in the end, the leftie dissidents' vote will not transfer all that badly to them. We all know what all the anecdotes about your uncle's friend's cousin twice removed about "ZOMGZ I REFUSE TO VOTE FOR TEIHS CANDIDATE!1111" amounts to in the end... still, I might be being generous to them. At this point, it isn't an issue of whether EELV can win in places like Firminy which are probably the last places where Greens would win in normal circumstances, but rather whether the left as a whole can win in those places.

Yeah, I'm placing Le Pen 3.0 as the winner in Carpentras-sud, though it is a very close call (the department is a hellhole, but they make elections interesting to watch). But I don't see either Collard or Panzergirl winning their seats.

In terms of groups on these numbers, EELV can easily form a group which Angelini would join. The PRG, if it can get the MRC, MUP and/or a few PS dissidents to join, could also have its own little group. The FG would need the MRC and MUP's members to join with it if it wants a group. NC can probably save a centrist group with the AC, the MoDem and maybe some DVDs. It would be fun to have, on top of the PS and UMP groups, a EELV group, a PRG group, a NC group and perhaps even a FG-MRC-something group.

btw, these predictions also integrate my older predictions for the 11 'foreign' seats, which I split 7 PS/3 UMP/1 EELV

There are a few seats where I'm starting to lose sleep over my predictions because it's so damn close:
Bouches-du-Rhone 11th
Val-de-Marne 4th
Hauts-de-Seine 13th
Wallis et Futuna
Loiret-1, 2 and even 3 and 6
Drome-2nd
two Alsatian right-right battles

But you don't need to be in the pew every Sunday to know that there's something wrong in the UMP when two seats in Vendee are tossups.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zuza on June 14, 2012, 08:37:25 PM
What is MUP?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: RodPresident on June 14, 2012, 09:57:45 PM
MUP is a moderate dissidency from PCF led by Robert Hue (former PCF leader). They're running Jean Nöel Carpentier, mayor of Montigny-les-Corméilles, in 3rd constituency of Val-D'Oise, where Hue was mayor.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 15, 2012, 02:11:19 AM
Great, Gaël !
Indeed, we are really very close.
Fine (or frightening ?) to see that pollsters are rallying our predictions ;)
Though they have taken almost a week, with all their means and people, to give us excessively cautious projections...
I'm worrying about the 3/5 majority for the left now :(


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 15, 2012, 04:36:10 AM
You and Fab are pretty close after all. :D

Anyways, fascinating stuff. Thank you.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 15, 2012, 04:58:05 AM
IFOP has a poll out for Essone-4
Nathalie Kosciusco-Morizet 51.5%
PS 48.5%

She gets 53% of FN votes. He gets 90% of Front de Gauche's voters and 18% of FN's first round support.

BVA for Vaucluse-3

Marion 36.5% UMP 34.5% PS 29%

I guess this poll is useful for UMP in the end. It should improve the "vote utile".


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on June 15, 2012, 05:06:16 AM
How is Yonne 1re considered slightly Gauche?? I hope you're right, but the UMP+FN are 10 points over FG+PS. I know that FG voters are more likely to vote for PS than FN are to UMP (and there will be more FN people voting for PS than FG ones for UMP). However, a 10-point advantage for the right is just too much, don't you think? 


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 15, 2012, 05:43:35 AM
How is Yonne 1re considered slightly Gauche?? I hope you're right, but the UMP+FN are 10 points over FG+PS. I know that FG voters are more likely to vote for PS than FN are to UMP (and there will be more FN people voting for PS than FG ones for UMP). However, a 10-point advantage for the right is just too much, don't you think? 

How many times do we need to say that adding UMP and FN votes is a stupid idea? There right doesn't have a "10 point advantage" or whatever here unless you're a braindead journalist.

55-60% of FN voters here will vote UMP, 90-98% of FG voters will vote PS (plus the Green and some far-left voters). On these numbers, the left has a (small) edge, without even counting any FN transfers to the left. Notice the gap?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 15, 2012, 06:46:34 AM
Yes, it makes sense to add up PS-FG-EELV-Whatever totals (at least as an indication of something), but doing that with the UMP and FN misses the point that a lot of FN votes are 'fyck you!' votes.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on June 15, 2012, 07:34:08 AM
How is Yonne 1re considered slightly Gauche?? I hope you're right, but the UMP+FN are 10 points over FG+PS. I know that FG voters are more likely to vote for PS than FN are to UMP (and there will be more FN people voting for PS than FG ones for UMP). However, a 10-point advantage for the right is just too much, don't you think? 

How many times do we need to say that adding UMP and FN votes is a stupid idea? There right doesn't have a "10 point advantage" or whatever here unless you're a braindead journalist.

55-60% of FN voters here will vote UMP, 90-98% of FG voters will vote PS (plus the Green and some far-left voters). On these numbers, the left has a (small) edge, without even counting any FN transfers to the left. Notice the gap?

I think I said that it's not accurate to add FN to UMP votes... In fact, what I said was that FG voters are more likely and vote more for the PS than FN do for the UMP. But, Yonne 1st is a right wing place, so I don't think PS has the edge there. Let's wait until Sunday. You know more about French politics than me. You may be right.

So, please, next time, don't call my ideas 'stupid'. It's unnecessary.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zanas on June 15, 2012, 08:25:46 AM
Yes, that was uncalled for.

Nevertheless, Hashemite and Sibboleth are right :
- you take PS : 35,8
- you take FG+EELV*90% : 8,7
- you take NPA+LO*75% : 0,8
That's 45,3 for the left.

- you take UMP+DVD+MPF : 35,2
- you take DLR*80% : 1
- you take AEI*50% : 0,2
That's 36,4 for the right.

Take 16,8 for the FN, give 12% = 2 to the left, give 60% = 10 to the right, the other 4,8 won't vote.

You still have 47,3 for the left and 46,4 for the right, which makes 50,5 % left and 49,5 % right in terms of valid votes. And that's with not so good transfers for the left.

So Yonne-1 leans left in this election, yeah.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: homelycooking on June 15, 2012, 08:28:54 AM
So, please, next time, don't call my ideas 'stupid'. It's unnecessary.

Relax, it's just Hash. You can tell how optimistic he is about French politics by his repeated use of "moron", "braindead", "retarded douchebag", "f--king idiot", etc.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 15, 2012, 08:36:03 AM
How is Yonne 1re considered slightly Gauche?? I hope you're right, but the UMP+FN are 10 points over FG+PS. I know that FG voters are more likely to vote for PS than FN are to UMP (and there will be more FN people voting for PS than FG ones for UMP). However, a 10-point advantage for the right is just too much, don't you think? 

How many times do we need to say that adding UMP and FN votes is a stupid idea? There right doesn't have a "10 point advantage" or whatever here unless you're a braindead journalist.

55-60% of FN voters here will vote UMP, 90-98% of FG voters will vote PS (plus the Green and some far-left voters). On these numbers, the left has a (small) edge, without even counting any FN transfers to the left. Notice the gap?

I think I said that it's not accurate to add FN to UMP votes... In fact, what I said was that FG voters are more likely and vote more for the PS than FN do for the UMP. But, Yonne 1st is a right wing place, so I don't think PS has the edge there. Let's wait until Sunday. You know more about French politics than me. You may be right.

So, please, next time, don't call my ideas 'stupid'. It's unnecessary.

Oh, for Christ's sake. Because you're so insistent, you've forced me to re-run my numbers on the constituency. And I still get 47.5% for the left and 46.1% for the right, on a generous assumption of 60% of FN voters going UMP (and even if 60% was 65%, the left would *still* have an edge). Then there's the strength of candidates. The PS candidate is the mayor of the biggest town by a mile in the constituency and has a strong local political footing. The UMP incumbent is retiring and their candidate is a regional councillor and former suppléant. And, no, don't play the argument that being a 'right-wing place' means that left cannot possibly win it; unless you feel like explaining to me why Jean-Christophe Lagarde and Marc Le Fur will probably win reelection or why the PS won both seats in the Meuse in 2002. I wouldn't be shocked if the UMP did win here, but I would not be placing money on that outcome.

I didn't call *your* ideas stupid, but I called the general idea - which 99% of casual observers are guilty of - of even thinking about adding UMP and all FN votes, regardless of whatever justifications you put for it. If you felt like I insulted you, I apologize, because that wasn't my intention, but I'm terribly fed up and exasperated by all the inanities and stupidities which have been said about these elections by all kinds of people. And regardless, adding UMP and FN votes is a stupid idea, though people who do it are not necessarily stupid. But in the realm of ideas, it is only stupid rather than moronic.

Now can I get back to serious business?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 15, 2012, 09:13:42 AM
Yes, it makes sense to add up PS-FG-EELV-Whatever totals (at least as an indication of something), but doing that with the UMP and FN misses the point that a lot of FN votes are 'fyck you!' votes.

Well, in the 1997-2012 French politics that was definitely how it happens.

In the 2012-something French politics, it's up for a new era.

The FN raises more and more an adhesion than a f**k off feeling, maybe it's not clear electorally so far, but in the debates, in the media, in what people say, in polls, that's apparently more and more the case, and you hear more and more people saying that they could never vote for Jean-Marie but that Marine is decent to them. And 18% with 81% turnout shows something. That kind of 'populist patriotism' perfectly fits the French cultural mood that is going on in this country for years, and by which I'm particularly fed up (and all the problems I had with the regional mood that's going on in this country in the last years were in this sense). A guy like Philippot, who clearly was the 2nd most important FN guy in the Présidentielle campaign, perfectly illustrates this. This plus the fact that what is supposed to be the classical Right tries to suck more and more at the Far-Right ideas, with clear groups (Droite Populaire) and even big figureheads like formerly mainly Sarkozy-Guéant and now mainly Coppé-Morano, regardless of the future of those latter figureheads, the 'ideas are living. All of this makes the FN having more and more the image of a regular party in France.

On the Left side, Jospin's 'majorité plurielle' is more or less over too, Greens, regardless of their last scores and of their enslaving agreement, took more an ideological self-assurance and don't want to see anymore as the petty green touch of painting on a corner of the PS logo. And FdG gave really a new psychological turn to the Far-Left too, and the time when PCF was the classical little puppet or 'leftist consciousness' of PS seems to be over, Mélenchon is a perfect embodiment of this, regardless of the fact that it's PCF who would have the most sits and who wouldn't be fan of having their comfy habits disturbed. So technically, electorally, it's rather safe to add them in an election, that's for sure. Politically, culturally, no.

The point is that French institutions and electoral system is very hardly representative of the political life of the country, which, outside of the fact that I wouldn't really believe anymore in the kind of Modern political systems in which we are living, is an other of those things that have been particularly annoying to me along years (heck, even considering the German electoral system and institutions, which remains part of the classical nowadays democracies, look like making a civilizational gap compared to French ones).

In France you have the Président, and the Street.

Some elections not really representative of the political life which are like a big cover on a pressure-cooker, the pressure grows and grows and grows in the society (the Street), when it's too much the Président/Elected Mornach/Half-God all powerful person listens to the Street and change some things. That's the way it goes. And during the few very relative representative electoral moments of those country (Présidentielle election mainly), you have Marine Le Pen doing 18% with 81% turnout, or JMLP making the 2nd run in 2002 and thus depriving the country of any true debates during at least 5 years...

France is a country that apparently like to go by à coups:

Pressure-BLAST-Pressure-BLAST-Pressure...etc.

There is a famous saying in France when people are fed up, they say:

Ca va péter! ('Gonna blast!')

Something like an Hollande presidency would make evolve it, but slowly, and also chaotically if MLP and her 'ideas' take more and more importance in the political debate, regardless of her electoral scores. Amusing how (thankfully!) all the trends go toward the end of that kind of things, either by a weakening of this, embodied by Hollande, or by an overdose of it, very much embodied by Sarkozy during the campaign and now by MLP, the Guignols de l'info are less and less funny, but still sometimes they remain good, and the way they portray that former one like 'Miracle maker Televangelist' is quite good. What's presents the most constructive political (economical things aside) evolution is FdG (and within them overall PdG) and Greens, but still no clear trends succeeds to emerge so far.

The point now is to see how this political system will crumble. ;D

Or in a more constructive way, what could follow...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 15, 2012, 09:40:08 AM
Oh and want the last 'gate' (that also goes in the sense of what I was saying about UMP and FN getting closer and closer)?

http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/le-reveil-politique/20120615.OBS8732/morano-piegee-je-n-ai-pas-envie-que-ca-devienne-le-liban-chez-moi.html

Morano trapped by the famous humorist/imitator Gerald Dahan (famous for having already trapped several famous people including some politicians.

He called Morano on phone and imitated Louis Aliot (MLP's husband, 2nd of FN hierarchically) to negotiate a FN support to Morano against a withdrawal of UMP against Collard, and then the conversation goes, and Morano loves to discuss politics, and is a very...spontaneous...person, so she very openly says to the supposed Aliot that:

'Marine Le Pen has a lot of talent'

'There are society projects on which I agree with you'

And in the end she says in a very heart-broken tone that:

'They [PS & friends] gonna put France in a sh!t like it's never been! Right and Left aren't the same! They gonna pass the voting right to foreigners! I don't want it becomes Lebanon here!'

Enjoy...

The most pitiful part is that, no matter the fact that it's rather close of what she already openly said, she now attacks the humorist in justice, saying it's a manipulation of her words (well the record is available on Internet, hard to access though, technical problems), an usurpation of identity and that she never gave her agreement for this (^^), so it makes her all looking as 'No! No! I never said that!', which discredits still more, in case it was needed, her camp on those topics and making FN looking like 'at least those are straight on what they think'...just what UMP needed.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 15, 2012, 10:42:09 AM
Morano finally showed the true face of modern French right. Massive kudos to Gérald Dahan for this little trick.

Glad to see some people found my map interesting. :) BTW, here are the corrected totals accounting for qualified candidates who dropped out (this is based on Andrea's list, as I have no idea how to verify by myself).

Left wins by 1st round : 25 39 (plus Cher-2, Nord-16, 17, 19, HdS-1, SSD-1, 4, 6, 7, 11, VdM-10, 11, SM-3, 8)
Left VS left : 22 8 (minus Cher-2, Nord-16, 17, 19, HdS-1, SSD-1, 4, 6, 7, 11, VdM-10, 11, SM-3, 8)
Left VS other : 7
Left VS far-right : 21 23 (plus BdR-13, 16)
Left VS left VS far-right : 1 0 (minus BdR-13)
Left VS left VS right : 8 2 (minus Aude-2, Finistère-3, 6, HG-3, PdC-6, HdS-11)
Left VS right : 426 436 (plus Aude-2, Finistère-3, 6, HG-3, Morbihan-2, PdC-6, PO-2, Yvelines-3, Vaucluse-5, HdS-11)
Left VS right VS other : 2
Left VS right VS right : 4 2 (minus Morbihan-2, Yvelines-3)
Left VS right VS far-right : 31 28 (minus BdR-16, PO-2, Vaucluse-5)
Right VS far-right : 9
Right VS other : 5
Right VS right : 5 4 (minus Paris-4)
Right wins by 1st round : 11 12 (plus Paris-4)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 15, 2012, 10:56:22 AM
Yonne-1

I'd say, because it's Yonne SW, not Alpes-Maritimes or inner Morbihan, and considering the fact the UMP candidate, Larrivé, is a living caricature for FN voters: a young ambitious, ENA+business school+Sarkozy's office !

35.8 + 3.3 (20% of FN) + 4.8 (95% of FG) + 3.8 (80-85% of Greens) + 0,4 (a bit less than 50% for the far-left, as it's only the "pure" remnants of LO and NPA) = 48.1 for the left

34.4 + 9.2 (55% of FN) + 1.1+0.5 (not exactly 100% of DVD) + 0.1 (something from AEI) = 45.3 for the right.

So, yes, it's really lost for the right, all the more that the PS candidate is mayor of Auxerre, the main city.
Julio, if you had spent hours on all the 577 constituencies (;)), you would have been aware that it's really good for the left, as we have many, many situations where it's something like 46.3 vs 46.7...
And, Julio, you put 2 question marks in your post, so... it's normal for Hash to react in a lively way.


Benoît, the FN isn't more respectable now than before 2011: all the guys around Marine really want power (contrary to Jean-Marie Le Pen), but they are at least as mad as the former team. And they are even far less intelligent.
Though they were cr*p, at least, people like Le Gallou, Blot, Martinez, even devil Stirbois, were clever guys.
So, as for leaders, middle and local politicians, rank-and-file, the transfers between UMP and FN may be, at a certain point, as impossible as ever.

And FN voters aren't likelier to transfer to the UMP than before, as it's again a mix between popular vote and "strong right" vote, plus (it's new in 2012) a rural and far-exurban vote. What Sarkozy did in 2007 was to appeal DIRECTLY to popular voters, apart from his traditional bourgeois base. It wasn't the FN rank-and-file or appartachiki who rallied Sarkozy.
So, today and for some years to come, adding UMP+FN hasn't any more relevance than before.

Of course, if the Droite populaire-wing of the UMP was a party of its own and if France had PR as electoral system, then you could add FN+Droite+populaire+UMP+even centre-right MPs, though still not the voters.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 15, 2012, 12:12:40 PM
) BTW, here are the corrected totals accounting for qualified candidates who dropped out (this is based on Andrea's list, as I have no idea how to verify by myself).

I've spotted a mistake in my original list. I then added 3 more PS who are running as only candidates on Sunday. It's due to 3 more FG withdrawals (Val de Marne 11, Seine Maritime 3 and 8)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 15, 2012, 12:57:25 PM
) BTW, here are the corrected totals accounting for qualified candidates who dropped out (this is based on Andrea's list, as I have no idea how to verify by myself).

I've spotted a mistake in my original list. I then added 3 more PS who are running as only candidates on Sunday. It's due to 3 more FG withdrawals (Val de Marne 11, Seine Maritime 3 and 8)

Rectified accordingly. :) Where do you get your sources ? From the news, or is there an official list somewhere ?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 15, 2012, 02:46:46 PM
http://www.elections-legislatives.fr/candidats.asp


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 15, 2012, 02:51:44 PM
Oh yes, I knew that one, but nothing specific for dropouts I guess.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 15, 2012, 02:58:34 PM
) BTW, here are the corrected totals accounting for qualified candidates who dropped out (this is based on Andrea's list, as I have no idea how to verify by myself).

I've spotted a mistake in my original list. I then added 3 more PS who are running as only candidates on Sunday. It's due to 3 more FG withdrawals (Val de Marne 11, Seine Maritime 3 and 8)

Rectified accordingly. :) Where do you get your sources ? From the news, or is there an official list somewhere ?


I got from the number of "candidats uniques" from the news. Some of them were mentioned in the articles, others not and I had to double check with the list of candidates on the ministry website. However, as they basically all were in Left-Left battles, it was quite easy to idenfity what kind of departments were likely to have them (or going by memory).

I got the list of 12 who dropped out from triangulaires from a news website. I just verified these constituencies checking the candidates lists as their number made sense when comparing potential triangulaires reported on Monday morning to the number of effective triangulaires reported on Wednesday by the media.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on June 15, 2012, 04:56:13 PM
Ok, people, I don't know 1/1000 of what you know about French politics... But Hash, you didn't need to be rude (I think you were, sorry). I felt like an idiot.

And OK, I'm actually glad that you three consider Yonne 1st a leaning PS seat :) Sorry if I am too ignorant, but I believed that Yonne, being a conservative place, would not elect a socialist.

Oh, I won't come here to say I was right and I know more than you if finnally UMP carries Yonne-1st "a la krazen", so don't worry hahaha... I hope I was wrong with that prediction and PS can take places where the majority of people chose the right last Sunday and where Sarko won last month.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 15, 2012, 09:39:51 PM
Why does France have to hold four elections in a year? It seems that'd be kind of annoying and not good for turnout, why not just have one for the first round of the presidential and legislative and then one for the second round of presidential and legislative?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: rob in cal on June 15, 2012, 10:50:45 PM
It seems like alot of European countries that directly elect a President do it seperately from the legislative elections, such as Ireland, Austria, Slovakia etc, and only in the case of France is it scheduled a month before the legislative elections, but yes it must be weird to be constantly voting, kind of like many parts of Germany in 1932, where many people voted five different times.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 15, 2012, 11:34:39 PM
I suspect the reasoning might be that it allows people specific time to focus on each election, so they can first just focus on the presidential campaign and then only on the legislative one. But still seems kind of unnecessary, not to mention expensive.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Foucaulf on June 16, 2012, 03:23:58 AM
Why does France have to hold four elections in a year? It seems that'd be kind of annoying and not good for turnout, why not just have one for the first round of the presidential and legislative and then one for the second round of presidential and legislative?

Two reasons, I think:

-Technically, the legislatives were not intended to always land on the same year as the presidentielle. That became only the case once the presidential term was reduced to five years.
-In Europe the concept of a single person controlling executive and legislative authority is widely accepted. Let France be the example: the presidential election is what really matters, in which the quasi-monarch is elected. The legislative election follows not because it is a serious contest, but because it legitimates the president's power. The president's party is supposed to win the legislatives. If the elections were held at the same time, you could have a president facing an opposition parliament - which would be awkward indeed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cohabitation_(government))
In the US the executive and legislative are supposed to be divided, which is why the timing of the elections means less. Ideally one type of election should not affect the other anyway.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 16, 2012, 03:41:02 AM
Ok, people, I don't know 1/1000 of what you know about French politics... But Hash, you didn't need to be rude (I think you were, sorry). I felt like an idiot.

This is Hash, you'd better get used to it. ;) We are great friends, yet on a couple occasions he was pretty rude to me as well.


And Foucaulf is absolutely right on législatives. That's exactly what sucks about our political system.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 16, 2012, 07:26:55 AM
-In Europe the concept of a single person controlling executive and legislative authority is widely accepted. Let France be the example: the presidential election is what really matters, in which the quasi-monarch is elected. The legislative election follows not because it is a serious contest, but because it legitimates the president's power. The president's party is supposed to win the legislatives. If the elections were held at the same time, you could have a president facing an opposition parliament - which would be awkward indeed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cohabitation_(government))

This is correct, but only since 2000. Prior to that, legislative elections were far more important and were much less (except for elections like 1981 or 1988) confirmations of the president's mandate.

Anyhow, I changed my predictions to give NKM the edge. So subtract one from the PS and overall left and add one to the UMP and overall right.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 16, 2012, 11:11:51 AM
Oh yes, I knew that one, but nothing specific for dropouts I guess.

Just compare to the results, for example here:
http://fr.news.yahoo.com/elections/resultats/


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on June 17, 2012, 03:11:36 AM
-In Europe the concept of a single person controlling executive and legislative authority is widely accepted. Let France be the example: the presidential election is what really matters, in which the quasi-monarch is elected. The legislative election follows not because it is a serious contest, but because it legitimates the president's power. The president's party is supposed to win the legislatives. If the elections were held at the same time, you could have a president facing an opposition parliament - which would be awkward indeed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cohabitation_(government))
In the US the executive and legislative are supposed to be divided, which is why the timing of the elections means less. Ideally one type of election should not affect the other anyway.

Still I would expect people to vote for a majority for the same person they votes for president. I don't see why Hollande would have been more unlikley to win a majority on the day of the presidential than he is today. Well except the depressed turn-out among some right-wingers, but you can't really base an election dates on that you want lower turn-out.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 05:41:47 AM
82.81% turnout in Wallis-et Futuna

Turnout at midday in mainland France: 21.41% (last Sunday: 21.06%; second round 2007: 22.89%


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 17, 2012, 05:43:29 AM
So, the picture looks roughly the same as in first round. That doesn't mean, however, that it's the same people who turned out to vote...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 17, 2012, 05:45:47 AM
BTW, Gaël, I assume there will be a #legislatives2012 party once again on mibbit ? :)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 17, 2012, 08:44:12 AM
BTW, Gaël, I assume there will be a #legislatives2012 party once again on mibbit ? :)

Yeah, with the added fun of a Greek election doom and gloom "party" at the same time :)

Also, once again, no leaked results or exit polls before 20h.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 09:32:07 AM
Benoît, the FN isn't more respectable now than before 2011: all the guys around Marine really want power (contrary to Jean-Marie Le Pen), but they are at least as mad as the former team. And they are even far less intelligent.
Though they were cr*p, at least, people like Le Gallou, Blot, Martinez, even devil Stirbois, were clever guys.
So, as for leaders, middle and local politicians, rank-and-file, the transfers between UMP and FN may be, at a certain point, as impossible as ever.

And FN voters aren't likelier to transfer to the UMP than before, as it's again a mix between popular vote and "strong right" vote, plus (it's new in 2012) a rural and far-exurban vote. What Sarkozy did in 2007 was to appeal DIRECTLY to popular voters, apart from his traditional bourgeois base. It wasn't the FN rank-and-file or appartachiki who rallied Sarkozy.
So, today and for some years to come, adding UMP+FN hasn't any more relevance than before.

Of course, if the Droite populaire-wing of the UMP was a party of its own and if France had PR as electoral system, then you could add FN+Droite+populaire+UMP+even centre-right MPs, though still not the voters.

Well, yes, never said it was more respectable than before, just that the trend would be that more and more people would be finding it is, Marine Le Pen and the new generation might be as 'mad' as old FN's but they live in a new paradigm, both in term of content than in term of form, and are also far better communicants than before (unless anybody dare pretend Golnich was a good communicant), before FN was 'THE DEVIL ON EARTH!' (JMLP) and nobody else around, and was a kind mix of all the different streams of the hardcore French Far-Right fascinated by all the darknesses of French history, plus some different kinds of strong rightist people, plus all those who effectively wanted to say 'F**K ALL OF YOU!' (with different kinds of sociology existing for each category apparently).

Marine Le Pen is arriving like a storm in all of this and wants to conquer, she has 'the talent' to do so as said Morano (hey speaking about her, doesn't Fillon want to go back supporting Morano after what she just said 'on phone'?), she knows what to say to gain to catch the most possible populism, and she finds a country which is apparently, culturally (I care always more about what's going on in the culture than in elections personally, especially with the French electoral system), more and more opened to her ideas.

That being said, she only opened an important electoral gate with her 18% of 81%, as I said, if she wants to conquer she has a whole path to do, and still a lot of job to do, to find a new clear and more consensual line, but you can't watch FN right now and say it won't work, it's something in full mutation.

And when you add to this the fact that UMP would be totally crumbling to me, and that its Far-Right wing seems to be more and more fascinated by this new efficient leader, now that they have lost one, now that the whole classical Right has lost a strong leader, while they always worked this way.

All of this said, no matter how far Marine Le Pen would be able to go, our luck is that, in Europe, Far-Rightist populisms remain quite empty and can't be as nasty as they have been in the past, we're kinda vaccinated, which is why I use to say that I feel safer to be in Europe than in Northern America...

Once again, the major test for the new FN would be both Européennes (who knows what can happen in 2 years, but if the context remains kinda the same, those elections could be 'wow!'), and overall Municipales (I can't help thinking about Marseille...all the ingredients are there), a far more accessible election for FN and the 2nd most important elections for French people.

Oh and, it's my party that won last Sunday, about 52%!

I would have been home I might have continued my FdG vote, but I wasn't and am still not, so I guess my party will win again, and apparently I don't have much conscience troubles with that...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 17, 2012, 11:52:15 AM
My chatroom thing is online, if anybody wants to chit-chat with me in this last hour.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 17, 2012, 11:54:49 AM
linky dinky?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on June 17, 2012, 11:56:58 AM
At 17:00, turnout was roughly 2% less than last week.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 17, 2012, 11:57:51 AM

Mibbit

#legislatives2012


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 17, 2012, 12:00:22 PM

Can't find it. ???


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 17, 2012, 12:02:48 PM
Oh right, chatroom. I was thinking liveblog like for the presidentials. Sorry. :)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 17, 2012, 12:05:10 PM

That's... weird? You're sure you're doing all the steps correctly?

Can't find it. ???


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 12:46:17 PM
AP says the socialists will have an outright majority in parliament


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 17, 2012, 12:49:41 PM
AP says the socialists will have an outright majority in parliament


NO SPOILER

Thx.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 12:55:20 PM
lol, Ségolène Royal speaking before 20h, which is forbidden on French TV, so we have the image and not the sound ^^.

Amusing to see this censorship about results in French media kinda teleported here.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 17, 2012, 12:57:04 PM
AP says the socialists will have an outright majority in parliament

Are you illiterate, retarded or missing a chromosome?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 12:57:43 PM
Segolene is spoilering live on France 2.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 01:00:52 PM
So...2 FNs?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 17, 2012, 01:01:41 PM
http://www.france24.com/en/election-resultats

This says 2-4 FN. Which is bizarre since it gives an exact number for everybody else...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 01:02:06 PM
And La Rochelle rebelle!

Royal lost.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 01:02:49 PM
Coppé elected 59,6%


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 01:04:03 PM
Lang beaten! by 49.something

Lang, Royal, it's all the 'special ones' of PS that are leaving...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 01:05:17 PM
Damn it, Bertand does it, very short though, 50. something.

Morano beaten! (maybe not a so good news, it's not the kind to surrender...)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 01:05:27 PM
Bye bye Nadine.

Marion leading according to FR2 journalist


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Foucaulf on June 17, 2012, 01:07:07 PM
http://www.france24.com/en/election-resultats

This says 2-4 FN. Which is bizarre since it gives an exact number for everybody else...

Maybe it depends on if you count Bompard as FN or "other right". Same goes for someone else too?

TOTAL LEFT: 341 SEATS
OF WHICH SOCIALIST: 291 SEATS
TOTAL RIGHT: 231 SEATS


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 01:07:42 PM
Ministers:

Moscovici
Le Foll
Lebranchu

...elected.

Glavany too. Maybe future president of the Assembly.

lol at Morano, spending 3/4 of her speech to accuse Dahan ^^.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 01:08:13 PM
Collard makes it.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 01:08:29 PM
Marine Le Pen beaten according to France 2


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 01:08:52 PM
Marine Le Pen beaten according to France 2

Yup, same on Le Monde


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 17, 2012, 01:09:55 PM
Marine Le Pen beaten according to France 2

YES!


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 01:10:09 PM
MMLP, Maréchal la voilà, elected, becomes the youngest députée in France's history (22 years old).

Alliot-Marie lost!


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 17, 2012, 01:11:35 PM
Sego lost? Actually disappointed, although I expected it.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 01:12:50 PM
Updated:


Sego lost? Actually disappointed, although I expected it.

Yeah, she was a fancy one ^^.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 01:14:06 PM
Elected Socialist dissidents:

Falorni
Dosière


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: DL on June 17, 2012, 01:16:07 PM
Marine Le Pen beaten according to France 2

Ding dong the witch is dead!


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 01:16:51 PM
Philippot has been defeated 53.7% to 46.3


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 17, 2012, 01:20:02 PM
Two seats for MIM in Martinique. Both seats for Calédonie Ensemble in (you know where). All three Polynesian seats for Flosse's people, the third by 152 votes - the second was close as well. PS taking five out of seven seats in La Réunion, ie all the seats where it even reached the runoff. (Bello was elected on the first round of course, and the seventh seat was won by MoDem in a runoff vs UMP.) Saint Martin/St Bart's went UMP but was far closer than expected.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 17, 2012, 01:21:40 PM
UMP hold Lozère by 400 votes. :(


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 01:23:01 PM
Greens have won Doubs-2 and Calvados-5 50.something to 49.something


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 17, 2012, 01:27:40 PM
How can there be no results from Wallis & Futuna yet?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 01:35:26 PM
Jean Lassalle survives

Collard won by 1.3%
42.82 PS 41.56 UMP 15.63


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on June 17, 2012, 01:40:24 PM
I was right about Yonne 1st :'(


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 17, 2012, 01:53:48 PM
Socialists take both winnable seats in Savoie.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 01:54:26 PM
How can there be no results from Wallis & Futuna yet?

It has just been flashed on the bottom of the screen on Fr2. DVD gain by 0.something.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 17, 2012, 01:55:58 PM
Clean sweep in Finistère (including the rebel.)

And victoire á Auraillac!


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 02:06:16 PM
Renucci lost in Corse.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 17, 2012, 02:09:09 PM
Guéant junior beaten.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 02:15:24 PM
Vauzelle 51.29
FN 48.71


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 17, 2012, 02:26:09 PM
Marine Le Pen beaten according to France 2
by 118 votes. Ahem.
Also Pas de Calais is 11-1 for the Left.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 17, 2012, 02:32:03 PM
lolvendée. You know the traditional right wingyness of west central France is a dying tradition when the PS takes two seats in Vendée.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 02:51:17 PM

And overall Guéant senior beaten. (yay!)


Philippot said 114 on France2, and said they gonna recount, while 114 would remain significant enough, he enjoyed to push on 'you know, Nord-Pas-de-Calais' PS fairness in elections...'. Then it wasn't that far to reach for MLP anyhow.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 02:55:39 PM
lol, Aubry said Falorni (Royal opponent) would be excluded of the PS, that affair might haven't finished to be poisonous.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 17, 2012, 02:59:38 PM
lol, Aubry said Falorni (Royal opponent) would be excluded of the PS, that affair might haven't finished to be poisonous.

Since weeks, I think than Falorni should ditch PS and join PRG and put himself in the line of Crépeault.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 03:02:01 PM
Ah and, about Maréchal la voilà, heard her speech on France2, she is quite good, really, in a totally different style than MLP, a calm but efficient and rather sympathetic style.

Her and Collard can really have an impact on the Assemblée.

Bompard (Vaucluse), former FN, strong Far-Right, elected by 58%, that's 3 official Far-Right in the assembly. And we'd still have to see how many unofficial ones (Droite Populaire) we could have...

lol, Aubry said Falorni (Royal opponent) would be excluded of the PS, that affair might haven't finished to be poisonous.

Since weeks, I think than Falorni should ditch PS and join PRG and put himself in the line of Crépeault.

He said he wanted to stay in presidential majority, so could I guess, yeah the Crépeault reference could be a good legitimacy.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 03:09:31 PM
Enjoy the sweetie:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5uAyqp1vqc&feature=player_embedded


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 17, 2012, 03:10:13 PM
I don't find her particularly hot for her age.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 03:11:06 PM
I don't find her particularly hot for her age.

In the French politics that might be the hottest we have...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 17, 2012, 03:15:17 PM
I don't find her particularly hot for her age.

In the French politics that might be the hottest we have...
Quite possibly. But then she's not much more than half the age of ordinary "young" politicians.

A real shame about Collard. I had kind of hoped to be able to gloat at a completely undeserved PS sweep of the Gard. Oh well, at least the UMP is locked out in that beautiful place. ;D


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 03:22:22 PM
I don't find her particularly hot for her age.

In the French politics that might be the hottest we have...
Quite possibly. But then she's not much more than half the age of ordinary "young" politicians.

Well, yes, when I remember about some threads here on this forum I always felt kinda jealous ^^.

A real shame about Collard. I had kind of hoped to be able to gloat at a completely undeserved PS sweep of the Gard. Oh well, at least the UMP is locked out in that beautiful place. ;D

Him in the Assemblée gonna be something. The guy is a professional exciter, he also won a lot of famous and popular cases as lawyer, spent a lot on TVs before his political career, he knows what to do and how to do it.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Velasco on June 17, 2012, 03:22:39 PM

Not so sweet, really. This is a subjective appreciation, of course.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 03:23:40 PM
This is a subjective appreciation, of course.

Uf, I'm reassured...

^^


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 17, 2012, 03:24:12 PM
Panzermiss is subjectively hot, but she's not remotely "sweet".


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Beet on June 17, 2012, 03:24:54 PM
^^^^^^

Didn't watch the video, but hotness totally goes away if what comes out of her mouth is ugly. If I have a boner it literally can just die. Then again I'm atypical in many ways, but I've heard this sentiment expressed in other contexts by more typical guys.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 03:27:07 PM
Panzermiss is subjectively hot, but she's not remotely "sweet".

This is, you know...a subjective appreciation...

^^^^^^

Didn't watch the video, but hotness totally goes away if what comes out of her mouth is ugly.

The point, and why I think that she can be strong too, is that the way she speaks, and almost what she says (at least tonight) doesn't look ugly!


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Beet on June 17, 2012, 03:29:53 PM
^^^^^^

Didn't watch the video, but hotness totally goes away if what comes out of her mouth is ugly.

The point, and why I think that she can be strong too, is that the way she speaks, and almost what she says (at least tonight) doesn't look ugly!

Almost what she says? It's hard to imagine to continue to advocate bigoted positions without saying ugly things, even if it is heavily coded. Basically, I don't think with my boner. Didn't when it was Sarah Palin, and wouldn't here, although I suppose it's a moot point.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Velasco on June 17, 2012, 03:31:26 PM
She reminds me too much Marshall Pétain, and this guy wasn't a hottie. Subjective appreciation again.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 03:34:55 PM
Muselier beaten in Marseille, and one more bad sign for the classical Right there, lately I wondered about Collard eventually using the coming years the best he can in the assembly and then jumping on Marseille for Municipales, once you're in Camargue, you're in Marseille suburb, and that's anyways where he was as a lawyer.

One more bad ingredient for the Municipales there...

^^^^^^

Didn't watch the video, but hotness totally goes away if what comes out of her mouth is ugly.

The point, and why I think that she can be strong too, is that the way she speaks, and almost what she says (at least tonight) doesn't look ugly!

Almost what she says? It's hard to imagine to continue to advocate bigoted positions without saying ugly things, even if it is heavily coded. Basically, I don't think with my boner. Didn't when it was Sarah Palin, and wouldn't here, although I suppose it's a moot point.

Well...
But, yes, (her speech was rather empty indeed), some general things about defending people and ruling problems, so it's hard to be that ugly here, I found her objectively/subjectively (^^) efficient and kinda sympathetic.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 17, 2012, 03:35:20 PM
I don't find her particularly hot for her age.

In the French politics that might be the hottest we have...
Quite possibly. But then she's not much more than half the age of ordinary "young" politicians.

Well, yes, when I remember about some threads here on this forum I always felt kinda jealous ^^.

A real shame about Collard. I had kind of hoped to be able to gloat at a completely undeserved PS sweep of the Gard. Oh well, at least the UMP is locked out in that beautiful place. ;D

Him in the Assemblée gonna be something. The guy is a professional exciter, he also won a lot of famous and popular cases as lawyer, spent a lot on TVs before his political career, he knows what to do and how to do it.
Quote from: french wiki
Proche de Marine Le Pen depuis la défense de sa mère Pierrette Le Pen pour son divorce avec Jean-Marie Le Pen
lol!


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 03:36:45 PM
North America

Corinne Narassiguin (PS-EELV) 54.01%
Frédéric Lefebvre (UMP) 45.99%


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 03:38:11 PM
I don't find her particularly hot for her age.

In the French politics that might be the hottest we have...
Quite possibly. But then she's not much more than half the age of ordinary "young" politicians.

Well, yes, when I remember about some threads here on this forum I always felt kinda jealous ^^.

A real shame about Collard. I had kind of hoped to be able to gloat at a completely undeserved PS sweep of the Gard. Oh well, at least the UMP is locked out in that beautiful place. ;D

Him in the Assemblée gonna be something. The guy is a professional exciter, he also won a lot of famous and popular cases as lawyer, spent a lot on TVs before his political career, he knows what to do and how to do it.
Quote from: french wiki
Proche de Marine Le Pen depuis la défense de sa mère Pierrette Le Pen pour son divorce avec Jean-Marie Le Pen
lol!

I didn't speak about this!

Seriously, lots of cases that were considered injustices, either in the economical field and in criminal one...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 03:39:42 PM
Oh and according to the last estimation on France2 before they shut, NC wouldn't have a group, yeah!


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 17, 2012, 03:41:59 PM

Yeah ! ;D
But Yonne 2nd is won by the left, against the odds.
Yonne has been really weird this turn and I was right to put high on the list of "points of interest".

Globally, our predictions are pretty good, Hash, don't you think ?
Though I shouldn't have changed my prediction on Loire but should have on Isère :P


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 03:42:53 PM
Libération cover for tomorrow:

()

I'm not sure in which sense the Royale reference is to be gotten.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 17, 2012, 03:43:30 PM
lolvendée. You know the traditional right wingyness of west central France is a dying tradition when the PS takes two seats in Vendée.

Berezina as we say in French :P

Corse is really unpredictable...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 03:46:55 PM
The left won the former constituency of Fillon in Sarthe ^^.



Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 03:50:13 PM
Seybah Dagoma defeating Lancar by 70% in Paris, yeah!



Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 03:55:20 PM
Guaino makes it.

His interventions in the Assemblée could be amusing to follow too. He was the biggest writer of Sarkozy's speeches, and in term of pure form, those were rather good.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 17, 2012, 03:57:26 PM
Heh. She was born on the same day as Miro Klose. As a politician, that makes her quite young (and arguably better looking than the Le Pen brat :P ). While Klose is of course much the oldest member of the German EURO squad (and the only one left to be older than me). ;D


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 03:58:24 PM
what's the current situation for the Greens?
I count 13 seats won so far. How many winnable are there for them to yet report?

And they have been quite lucky. 5 out of 11 so far has been won with less than 51%


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 04:03:08 PM
Heh. She was born on the same day as Miro Klose. As a politician, that makes her quite young (and arguably better looking than the Le Pen brat :P ).

Up for a comparison?

Let's go:

()

...and...

()

Isn't this awwwwwwwwwww...?

Well, personally, I can't say I'm fond of either...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 04:05:56 PM
what's the current situation for the Greens?
I count 11 seats won so far. How many winnable are there for them to yet report?

Well, general estimations give 19-20 so far, a group seems secure.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 04:08:36 PM
Big Foot (Georges Tron) ^^, beaten, indeed.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 04:11:56 PM
what's the current situation for the Greens?
I count 11 seats won so far. How many winnable are there for them to yet report?

Well, general estimations give 19-20 so far, a group seems secure.

oh right, I was thinking about 20 for a group rather than 15. That's why I asked the question. My bad


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 04:13:16 PM
Raoult beaten too!

...amusingly, it's not a good night for several of the most far-rightist figureheads of UMP who are beaten while the climate is more and more in their favor, France really has a particular electoral system, well, they would also be paying Sarkozy's defeat...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Foucaulf on June 17, 2012, 04:13:45 PM
Hérault's 6th constituency may be the tightest race in the elections: PS wins with 39,82%, 10 votes ahead of the UMP candidate. The deputy originally elected in 2007, doctor Paul-Henri Cugnenc, died a week into his second mandate.

One left pickup in Alsace - Bas-Rhin's second 52,2-47,8. Has gone for the left only once in 1981.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 17, 2012, 04:16:35 PM
Is Poisson the only one to win back a constituency (Rambouillet) for the right ? Hash ?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 17, 2012, 04:19:01 PM
Is Poisson the only one to win back a constituency (Rambouillet) for the right ? Hash ?
Wallis & Futuna apparently. Though that was thanks to a triangulaire.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 04:20:54 PM
Sylvie Andrieux wins 51% vs 49% for FN


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 04:21:53 PM
()

Done between the 14 and 16 of June, 3092 people, Ipsos, for what it's worth.

Short for Balkany, 51,40%.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 04:23:44 PM
Sylvie Andrieux wins 51% vs 49% for FN

PS gets lucky there, so far...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 04:24:53 PM
Is Poisson the only one to win back a constituency (Rambouillet) for the right ? Hash ?
Wallis & Futuna apparently. Though that was thanks to a triangulaire.

South Corse-1 is a right pick up too, isn't it?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 04:26:32 PM
Philippot didn't do that bad with 46,3%.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 04:34:41 PM
Baylet (PRG leader) announced a group in the Assemblée, apparently nobody told him he was only estimated with 12 seats.

With the Greens that'd be about 30 pro-Marijuana sits ^^ (not a smoker here, but lol, just passed through my mind).


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 04:38:16 PM
Wallis et Futuna complete result

41,61 % M. David VERGÉ [div. d.]Élu
41,04 % M. Mikaele KULIMOETOKE [div. g.]
17,36 % M. Albert LIKUVALU [PRG]


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 17, 2012, 04:38:36 PM
Baylet (PRG leader) announced a group in the Assemblée, apparently nobody told him he was only estimated with 12 seats.

With the Greens that'd be about 30 pro-Marijuana sits ^^ (not a smoker here, but lol, just passed through my mind).

All the overseas indies, perhaps Falorni...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zanas on June 17, 2012, 04:40:00 PM
fab you were right : Gorges in Eure-et-Loir-1 makes it, but really close...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Lief 🗽 on June 17, 2012, 04:46:47 PM
Funny that Sarkozy actually ended up running ahead of the right in the popular vote.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 17, 2012, 04:47:17 PM
fab you were right : Gorges in Eure-et-Loir-1 makes it, but really close...

Actually, I had predicted that before even the first round, when Fab didn't predict it until after the first round :)

I'm pleased by my predictions overall, with 92% correct thus far. Especially constituencies like Drome-2, Isere-7, Seine-et-Marne-7 where I disagreed with Fab :P Not so happy about BDR-11 and Yonne-1, where Julio can come and drool on my ruins.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zanas on June 17, 2012, 04:51:31 PM
In Loiret, I knew it wouldn't be a right grand slam anymore. Except I was counting on the 2nd to go left and Grouard was reelected for UMP with 350 votes ahead only. Instead it was the 6th that went PS for... 109 votes !!


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 17, 2012, 04:53:44 PM
Is Poisson the only one to win back a constituency (Rambouillet) for the right ? Hash ?
Wallis & Futuna apparently. Though that was thanks to a triangulaire.

South Corse-1 is a right pick up too, isn't it?

Oh, yes, of course.
But I meant... normal political territories ;D


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zanas on June 17, 2012, 04:53:55 PM
Hérault's 6th constituency may be the tightest race in the elections: PS wins with 39,82%, 10 votes ahead of the UMP candidate. The deputy originally elected in 2007, doctor Paul-Henri Cugnenc, died a week into his second mandate.

One left pickup in Alsace - Bas-Rhin's second 52,2-47,8. Has gone for the left only once in 1981.
I'd hate to appear too self-satisfied, but I got those 2 right ;)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 04:54:37 PM
Duflot would give its sit to its substitute, since she is in the govt, then instead of 18 sits, Greens would have 17 since her substitute is PS (in order not to have her as dissident), what if they had only 15 sits...

One more example of the greatness of our system...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 17, 2012, 04:55:22 PM
fab you were right : Gorges in Eure-et-Loir-1 makes it, but really close...

Actually, I had predicted that before even the first round, when Fab didn't predict it until after the first round :)

I'm pleased by my predictions overall, with 92% correct thus far. Especially constituencies like Drome-2, Isere-7, Seine-et-Marne-7 where I disagreed with Fab :P Not so happy about BDR-11 and Yonne-1, where Julio can come and drool on my ruins.


I have to count my own failures. Probably a bit more than you. As susual :( :P


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zanas on June 17, 2012, 04:59:11 PM
Manche-3 is a large 52,4 left victory. I only put 49,99 for the left there, but it was tossup in my mind.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 17, 2012, 05:19:17 PM
Hilarious that neither MLP or Mélanchon won in Pas-de-Calais.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 17, 2012, 05:22:16 PM
Green underperformance (that is, when compared to a more 'normal'  Left candidate) very obvious...


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zanas on June 17, 2012, 05:25:09 PM
As I felt it coming, Saône-et-Loire is all left, even if it's by only 380 votes in the 4th !


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 17, 2012, 05:27:24 PM
Basically everything officially declared except for the 11 expats constituencies (which will likely break 8 to 3 for the Left)?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 17, 2012, 05:35:28 PM
Green underperformance (that is, when compared to a more 'normal'  Left candidate) very obvious...

Just looked at that narrow Strasbourg seat and thought the same.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 17, 2012, 05:52:58 PM
Here's the final result, assuming French abroad seats went as I've been told :

FG : 10
PS : 280
DVG : 22
PRG : 12
EELV : 17

Total left : 341

Regionalists : 2
MoDem : 2

AC : 2
PR : 6
NC : 12
DVD : 15
UMP : 194

Total right : 229

FN : 2
EXD : 1


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 17, 2012, 06:01:51 PM
Green underperformance (that is, when compared to a more 'normal'  Left candidate) very obvious...

Just looked at that narrow Strasbourg seat and thought the same.

Strasbourg is not the place to notice it, because Buchmann did very well in what has always been the most right-wing of seats in Strasbourg and always the least likely to switch to the left. In Firminy, Toulouse-Balma and even Bergerac it is a bit obvious (but not massive). And overall, there was a Green underperformance of sorts, but I wouldn't make a huge case out of it, and all things considered, PS dissidents who were eliminated in the first round transferred their votes in a rather orderly fashion to EELV despite any bad blood.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 06:47:11 PM
Ah and, since it has been a kind of side debate here for these elections, 155 women have been elected députée on 577, against 103 during last legislature, that is 27% against 18,5% before.

Le Monde gives it:

PS: 107 on 273 elected are women
UMP: 26/191
EELV: 9/16 (so that is 16 now, it never stops to drop...)
DVG: 4
PRG:3
FdG:2
DVD:2
MRC:1
FN: 1


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on June 17, 2012, 07:02:40 PM
Droite Populaire:

20 députés elected on 41 candidates.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: adma on June 17, 2012, 08:43:42 PM
Blonde hottie + despot

()

()


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on June 17, 2012, 11:44:18 PM
Who are the 2 FN'ers ?

Le Pen probably and ?

PS: Who is the blonde one next to the old Le Pen ?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on June 17, 2012, 11:47:41 PM
Le Pen and Collard. Collard won by about 1% in a 3-way race between FN, UMP, and PS. He won the 2nd Gard district, which is on the coast in Languedoc.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 18, 2012, 01:20:08 AM
Who are the 2 FN'ers ?

Le Pen probably and ?

PS: Who is the blonde one next to the old Le Pen ?

Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, which won in Vaucluse-3. Marine lost in Nord, through.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Zuza on June 18, 2012, 01:22:53 AM

Beauty and beast :).


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 18, 2012, 02:49:05 AM
A bad news for you, Hashemite.

As Le Foll was elected MP, his European seat is going to the next on the PS list...

which is your "beloved" Isabelle Thomas.

(To be exhaustive, the New Centrist Damien Abad, elected in Ain is replaced Brussels by Karine Fenocchi, president of Corse New Center and opposition councillor in Ajaccio).


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 18, 2012, 03:10:02 AM
I'm sorry, but I definitely don't find Le Pen 3.0 hot. She's all right, but her face is pretty meh. Or maybe I'm just biased against fascists. :P


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 18, 2012, 06:06:41 AM
Guigou, Bartolone and Glavany officially running for presidency of the assembly.

Le Roux should take the lead of the PS group (which, in the end, is more important), and Bertrand (a Fillon supporter) will apparently run for the UMP group against incumbent Jacob (a Copéist).


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Andrea on June 18, 2012, 06:25:17 AM
For the experts here, in how many constituencies won by Sarko in presidential run off a Left candidate got elected yesterday? And in how many constituencies carried by Hollande, the Right held on?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 18, 2012, 06:32:26 AM
For the experts here, in how many constituencies won by Sarko in presidential run off a Left candidate got elected yesterday? And in how many constituencies carried by Hollande, the Right held on?

I'm sure Hash had made a map back in time, but I'm not sure where it is.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: adma on June 18, 2012, 06:41:59 AM
I'm sorry, but I definitely don't find Le Pen 3.0 hot. She's all right, but her face is pretty meh. Or maybe I'm just biased against fascists. :P

It's more the idea of her being "hot" (esp. as voter bait).

And re my photo comparison: keep this in mind as a reminder of far-right "aptitude" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmCHftCzAmg


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: rob in cal on June 18, 2012, 10:59:22 AM
Has anyone seen a list of all the close second round elections and who won them.  It seems to me as if there were alot of close ones. 


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 18, 2012, 01:40:53 PM
Is Poisson the only one to win back a constituency (Rambouillet) for the right ? Hash ?
Wallis & Futuna apparently. Though that was thanks to a triangulaire.

South Corse-1 is a right pick up too, isn't it?

Oh, yes, of course.
But I meant... normal political territories ;D
Ueva and Corsica are perfectly normal political territories. What you meant was, in France. ;D


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 19, 2012, 01:22:50 PM
()

Right click for a bigger version and all that. Fairly self-explanatory (winning margins for left candidates, for right candidates, for far-right candidates, etc) with a couple of exceptions. Left/left runoffs have been given the same colour as first round Left wins; the few right-right runoffs were three-way-triangle-whatevers, so that couldn't be done. For a mild degree of consistency (or stupidity) the margin given when that happened is the one needed for the left candidate to win. Errors certain.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 19, 2012, 03:52:32 PM
You didn't use my base map :(


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 19, 2012, 05:52:19 PM

Mostly this was my way of working through the results, so I wanted something a little larger to get a feel for things. Would likely use yours for a party lead map, if I feel sufficiently insane at any point (which is... probable. Wouldn't take long to work out uselessly specific keys, you see...)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 21, 2012, 10:58:17 AM
Has anyone seen a list of all the close second round elections and who won them.  It seems to me as if there were alot of close ones.  

Maybe it's a bit late, but I've made a list of all races won by 2 points or less. There were 65 (ie 11%).

Of left-right battles (54/440) :

Eure-2 : Jean-Louis DESTANS (PS) 50,04%
Seine-et-Marne-7 : Yves ALBARELLO (UMP) 50,08%
Val-de-Marne-4 : Jacques-Alain BÉNISTI (UMP) 50,09%
Maine-et-Loire-7 : Marc LAFFINEUR (UMP) 50,10%
Hérault-1 : Jean-Louis ROUMEGAS (EELV) 50,10%
Doubs-2 : Eric ALAUZET (EELV) 50,12%
Loiret-6 : Valérie CORRE (PS) 50,14%
Sarthe-5 : Dominique LE MENER (UMP) 50,16%
Hauts-de-Seine-13 : Patrick DEVEDJIAN (UMP) 50,18%
Haute-Saône-2 : Jean-Michel VILLAUMÉ (PS) 50,22%
Polynésie Française-3 : Jean-Paul TUAIVA (DVD) 50,24%
Tarn-3 : Linda GOURJADE (PS) 50,25%
Aisne-2 : Xavier BERTRAND (UMP) 50,25%
Yonne-2 : Jean-Yves CAULLET (PS) 50,25%
Val-d'Oise-4 : Gérard SEBAOUN (PS) 50,25%
Indre-et-Loire-2 : Claude GREFF (UMP) 50,26%
Val-d'Oise-7 : Jérôme CHARTIER (UMP) 50,29%
Vaucluse-5 : Julien AUBERT (UMP) 50,33%
Vosges-4 : Christian FRANQUEVILLE (PS) 50,37%
Loiret-2 : Serge GROUARD (UMP) 50,37%
Saône-et-Loire-4 : Cécile UNTERMAIER (PS) 50,40%
Haute-Garonne-3 : Jean-Luc MOUDENC (UMP) 50,41%
Hauts-de-Seine-12 : Jean-Marc GERMAIN (PS) 50,44%
Val-d'Oise-6 : François SCELLIER (UMP) 50,49%
Pyrénées-Orientales-2 : Fernand SIRE (UMP) : 50,49%
Yvelines-7 : Arnaud RICHARD (PR) : 50,51%
Corse-du-Sud-1 : Laurent MARCANGELI (UMP) 50,52%
Lozère-AL : Pierre MOREL-A-L'HUISSIER (UMP) 50,52%
Cher-1 : Yves FROMION (UMP) 50,52%
Somme-4 : Alain GEST (UMP) 50,55%
Isère-8 : Erwann BINET (PS) 50,57%
Isère-7 : Jean-Pierre BARBIER (UMP) 50,62%
Bouches-du-Rhône-1 : Valérie BOYER (UMP) 50,65%
Hérault-9 : Patrick VIGNAL (PS) 50,66%
Vienne-4 : Véronique MASSONNEAU (EELV) 50,67%
Aveyron-1 : Yves CENSI (UMP) 50,67%
Calvados-5 : Isabelle ATTARD (EELV) 50,71%
Eure-et-Loir-1 : Jean-Pierre GORGES (UMP) 50,78%
Tarn-1 : Philippe FOLLIOT (AC) 50,79%
Seine-Maritime-7 : Edouard PHILIPPE (UMP) 50,81%
Drôme-2 : Franck REYNIER (PR) 50,81%
Pas-de-Calais-9 : Stéphane SAINT-ANDRE (PRG) 50,83%
Puy-de-Dôme-3 : Danielle AUROI (EELV) 50,83%
Somme-2 : Barbara POMPILI (EELV) 50,83%
Seine-Saint-Denis-8 : Elisabeth POCHON (PS) 50,85%
Moselle-2 : Denis JACQUAT (UMP) 50,86%
Val-d'Oise-2 : Axel PONIATOWSKI (UMP) 50,86%
Vosges-2 : Gérard CHERPION (UMP) 50,88%
Seine-Maritime-10 : Dominique CHAUVEL (PS) 50,93%
Val-de-Marne-6 : Laurence ABEILLE (EELV) 50,95%
Bouches-du-Rhône-11 : Christian KERT (UMP) 50,98%
Isère-10 : Joëlle HUILLIER (PS) 50,98%
Orne-3 : Yves GOASDOUE (DVG) 50,99%
Bas-Rhin-3 : André SCHNEIDER (UMP) 50,99%

Of left-far right battles (2/23) :

Pas-de-Calais-11 : Philippe KEMEL (PS) 50,11%
Bouches-du-Rhône-3 : Sylvie ANDRIEUX (PS) 50,99%

Of left-centre battles (1/4) :

Pyrénées-Atlantiques-4 : Jean LASSALLE (MoDem) 50,98%

Of left-right-far right battles (6/28) :

Hérault-6 : Dolores ROQUE (PS) 39,82% over Elie ABOUD (UMP) 39,80%
Oise-2 : Jean-François MANCEL (UMP) 38,97% over Sylvie HOUSSIN (PS) 38,85%
Bouches-du-Rhône-8 : Olivier FERRAND (PS) 40,48% over Nicolas ISNARD (UMP) 39,91%
Bouches-du-Rhône-12 : Vincent BURRONI (PS) 37,34% over Eric DIARD (UMP) 36,60%
Moselle-7 : Paola ZANETTI (PS) 38,49% over André WOJCIECHOWSKI (PR) 37,74%
Gard-2 : Gilbert COLLARD (FN) 42,82% over Katy GUYOT (PS) 41,56%

Of left-left-right battles (1/3) :

Wallis-et-Futuna-AL : David VERGÉ (DVD) 41,61% over Mikaele KULIMOETOKE (DVG) 41,04%

Of left-right-right battles (1/2) :

Hauts-de-Seine-9 : Thierry SOLERE (DVD) 39,35% over Claude GUEANT (UMP) 38,41%


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: rob in cal on June 21, 2012, 12:01:11 PM
Objectiv, thanks for list.  Looks like the UMP did ok in the close head to head matchups, with the left getting lucky with a few  victories over two right wing candidates in the dreaded three way runoffs. 


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 21, 2012, 01:01:22 PM
Objectiv, thanks for list.  Looks like the UMP did ok in the close head to head matchups, with the left getting lucky with a few  victories over two right wing candidates in the dreaded three way runoffs. 

Indeed, it is striking that of the 54 straight runoffs, the right won significantly more (31, ie 57%) than the left. Even though the left got luckier against the right when the FN qualified, if you consider all the races where the left and right came close, the right won 33 and the left only 27. If the distribution corresponded to that of the other seats, I calculated that the left should have won 10 more seats. I guess this might be an effect of redistricting, with Marleix having packed left-wing votes in order to ensure the right wins a great share of marginal seats.

Also to note : two close right wins (Vaucluse-5 and Pyrénées-Orientales-2) were possible thanks to the withdrawal of FN candidates who were qualified to stand on second round. These were the only two cases when it happened in the country. The only race when a right-winger had withdrawn in favor of a far-rightist (Bouches-du-Rhône-16) resulted in a left victory with 51,29%.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 21, 2012, 01:13:25 PM
One thing that is very clear from the results is that there is less stigma attached to the FN than a decade ago. And I'm not even really thinking of those places where an FN candidate can now expect to poll better in a two-candidate runoff than a mainstream Right candidate.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 21, 2012, 01:33:50 PM
One thing that is very clear from the results is that there is less stigma attached to the FN than a decade ago. And I'm not even really thinking of those places where an FN candidate can now expect to poll better in a two-candidate runoff than a mainstream Right candidate.

Absolutely. The number of left-FN races where the FN broke 40 or even 45% is terrifying.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 21, 2012, 03:34:54 PM
Useful list, Antonio, because it gives us potential judicial procedures to have elections re-run.
When you're below 50,5%, everything is possible. And Hérault-6 may be cancelled too.

Imagine a series of 5 or 6 élections partielles at the beginning of 2013 ;D
I remember the 4 of 1981 that were cancelled and re-run: 4 rightist victories... It was really a shock for the left at the time (and for me, as I was a stupid 11-year-old leftist :P)

Because, apart from Seine-et-Marne 7 and from Haute-Garonne, all these races can very well turn in rightist victories: remember, partielles mean low turnout, no triangulaires and higher abstention among voters disappointed by "their" governement.

Thanks for giving me some hope for the months to come :)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 21, 2012, 03:44:25 PM
Useful list, Antonio, because it gives us potential judicial procedures to have elections re-run.
When you're below 50,5%, everything is possible. And Hérault-6 may be cancelled too.

Imagine a series of 5 or 6 élections partielles at the beginning of 2013 ;D
I remember the 4 of 1981 that were cancelled and re-run: 4 rightist victories... It was really a shock for the left at the time (and for me, as I was a stupid 11-year-old leftist :P)

Because, apart from Seine-et-Marne 7 and from Haute-Garonne, all these races can very well turn in rightist victories: remember, partielles mean low turnout, no triangulaires and higher abstention among voters disappointed by "their" governement.

Thanks for giving me some hope for the months to come :)

That would be unfair. :( The left deserved more wins, not less ! :P So, what does it take to invalidate an election ? And how exactly do invalidation procedures work ?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 21, 2012, 07:08:41 PM
One thing that is very clear from the results is that there is less stigma attached to the FN than a decade ago. And I'm not even really thinking of those places where an FN candidate can now expect to poll better in a two-candidate runoff than a mainstream Right candidate.

Absolutely. The number of left-FN races where the FN broke 40 or even 45% is terrifying.

Indeed:

Nord-12: 18% to 42.5%
Tarn-et-Garonne-2: 19% to 40%


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 22, 2012, 01:53:28 AM
Useful list, Antonio, because it gives us potential judicial procedures to have elections re-run.
When you're below 50,5%, everything is possible. And Hérault-6 may be cancelled too.

Imagine a series of 5 or 6 élections partielles at the beginning of 2013 ;D
I remember the 4 of 1981 that were cancelled and re-run: 4 rightist victories... It was really a shock for the left at the time (and for me, as I was a stupid 11-year-old leftist :P)

Because, apart from Seine-et-Marne 7 and from Haute-Garonne, all these races can very well turn in rightist victories: remember, partielles mean low turnout, no triangulaires and higher abstention among voters disappointed by "their" governement.

Thanks for giving me some hope for the months to come :)

That would be unfair. :( The left deserved more wins, not less ! :P So, what does it take to invalidate an election ? And how exactly do invalidation procedures work ?

It's the Conseil constitutionnel that invalidates elections. Every candidate but also every voter from the constituency can launch a procedure (during ten days after the official results are proclaimed). Every means of proof is admissible.

Sometimes, there are mistakes in numbers or, after recounts, there are new totals.

Sometimes, it's just that the gap is so tiny that an event that shouldn't have occurred (a meeting on a Saturday, a poll published on the local press, diffamatory leaflets given in front of polling stations, polling stations with not enough voting papers, etc.) is considered to have had enough influence to alter the final result (though the Conseil constitutionnel can't estimate how many ballotts are at stake).


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 22, 2012, 04:48:28 AM
One thing that is very clear from the results is that there is less stigma attached to the FN than a decade ago. And I'm not even really thinking of those places where an FN candidate can now expect to poll better in a two-candidate runoff than a mainstream Right candidate.

Absolutely. The number of left-FN races where the FN broke 40 or even 45% is terrifying.

Indeed:

Nord-12: 18% to 42.5%
Tarn-et-Garonne-2: 19% to 40%

The worst cases are Philippot in Moselle (46%), and in BdR the guys who almost beat Andrieux and Vauzelle. The "glass ceiling" is definitely eroding.


It's the Conseil constitutionnel that invalidates elections. Every candidate but also every voter from the constituency can launch a procedure (during ten days after the official results are proclaimed). Every means of proof is admissible.

Sometimes, there are mistakes in numbers or, after recounts, there are new totals.

Sometimes, it's just that the gap is so tiny that an event that shouldn't have occurred (a meeting on a Saturday, a poll published on the local press, diffamatory leaflets given in front of polling stations, polling stations with not enough voting papers, etc.) is considered to have had enough influence to alter the final result (though the Conseil constitutionnel can't estimate how many ballotts are at stake).

I see... It must be quite easy when the margin is less than 100 votes... When will we know for sure which races are challenged ? And how much time should the procedure last before the CC's decision ?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 22, 2012, 09:11:32 AM
There is no deadline for the Conseil, but the procedure can last up to 7 months, like in some cases in 2007-08:
http://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/conseil-constitutionnel/francais/a-la-une/juin-2012-le-conseil-constitutionnel-et-les-elections-legislatives.105850.html



Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 22, 2012, 10:17:48 AM
Well, let's hope we'll know soon. Anyways...


Close wins by party :

FG : 0
PS : 20
DVG : 1
PRG : 1
EELV : 7
Reg : 0
Total left : 29

MoDem : 1

AC : 1
PR : 2
NC : 0
DVD : 3
UMP : 28
Total right : 33 (HdS-9 isn't counted because it was only close between two right-wingers)

Far-right : 1


And close loses by party :P :

FG : 0
PS : 26
DVG : 4
PRG : 0
EELV : 4
Reg : 1
Total left : 35

MoDem : 0

AC : 0
PR : 1
NC : 2
DVD : 0
UMP : 25
Total right : 27

Far-right : 2


So, we have for each party the following ranges (giving all or none of close races, with actual results in brackets).

FG : 10-10 (10)
PS : 260-306 (280)
DVG : 21-26 (22)
PRG : 11-12 (12)
EELV : 10-21 (17)
Reg : 2-3 (2)
Total left : 314-378 (343)

MoDem : 1-2 (2)

AC : 1-2 (2)
PR : 4-7 (6)
NC : 12-14 (12)
DVD : 12-15 (15)
UMP : 166-219 (194)
Total right : 196-256 (229)

Far-right : 2-5 (3)


The "lucky" parties were PRG, EELV (really the luckiest), MoDem, AC, PR, DVD and UMP. The "unlucky" ones were PS, DVG, Reg, NC and FN. I had to use Politiquemania's labels which, unfortunately, aren't very precise. But looking at each MP individually as Fab did takes too much time. :P


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 22, 2012, 11:32:19 AM
One thing that is very clear from the results is that there is less stigma attached to the FN than a decade ago. And I'm not even really thinking of those places where an FN candidate can now expect to poll better in a two-candidate runoff than a mainstream Right candidate.

Absolutely. The number of left-FN races where the FN broke 40 or even 45% is terrifying.
Have you also had a look at the right-FN runoffs. In one or two of them, the Front candidate actually picked up more votes between rounds than the winner.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 22, 2012, 11:45:49 AM
One thing that is very clear from the results is that there is less stigma attached to the FN than a decade ago. And I'm not even really thinking of those places where an FN candidate can now expect to poll better in a two-candidate runoff than a mainstream Right candidate.

Absolutely. The number of left-FN races where the FN broke 40 or even 45% is terrifying.
Have you also had a look at the right-FN runoffs. In one or two of them, the Front candidate actually picked up more votes between rounds than the winner.


Yeah, they got big results too. Never over 40% though, AFAIK.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 28, 2012, 06:59:02 AM
Sorry for bumping a dead thread yet again, but since Hollande has repeatedly promised the next elections will have a share of PR, I thought it would be interesting to see how it would have affected the seat tally.

I chose to use compensatory PR (a traditional PR concerning only a little share of seats would have no practical effect on the seat count) with D'Hondt method based on first round vote results. I ran two calculations, one adding 65 seats (10% of the 642 potential seats) and the second one with 145 (20% of 722). In order to calculate party vote shares, I used the Interior ministry's useless labels, for lack of a better count. Every party that broke 1% was admitted to receive seats, except aggregates like DVG, DVD, etc...

With 65/642 seats, we get :

FG : 24 (+14)
PS : 280 (+0)
DVG : 22
PRG : 12 (+0)
EELV : 19 (+2)
Reg : 2
MoDem : 6 (+4)
AC : 2
NC : 12 (+0)
PR : 6 (+0)
DVD : 15
UMP : 194 (+0)
FN : 47 (+45)
EXD : 1

Now with 145/722 seats :

FG : 43 (+33)
PS : 280 (+0)
DVG : 22
PRG : 12 (+0)
EELV : 34 (+17)
Reg : 2
MoDem : 11 (+9)
AC : 2
NC : 13 (+1)
PR : 7 (+1)
DVD : 15
UMP : 194 (+0)
FN : 86 (+84)
EXD : 1

In both scenarios, the left gets an absolute majority, though they would need the support of EELV in the first case and of both EELV and FG in the second case. As expected, the FN is the main beneficiary of this system, but the FG also gets a huge boost, and to some extent the MoDem as well. The parliamentary right, having no significantly underrepresented party, is the main loser, falling from 40% of seats to 36% or even 32%. Overall, and as expected, it doesn't change the face of parliament but can significantly complicate things.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 29, 2012, 04:10:14 PM
List of contested elections per the ConCon:
http://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/conseil-constitutionnel/francais/elections-legislatives-2012/contentieux/contentieux-des-elections-legislatives-2012-tableau-general.114818.html

btw, Antonio, data.gouv has the results by department for the legislatives, so you could do some experiments with the 1986 system.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 30, 2012, 04:16:34 AM
List of contested elections per the ConCon:
http://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/conseil-constitutionnel/francais/elections-legislatives-2012/contentieux/contentieux-des-elections-legislatives-2012-tableau-general.114818.html

So many ? Well, looks like most of them concern seats which won very comfortably, so the likelihoods of an invalidation aren't very high. Here are the close races which have been contested.

Eure-2 : Jean-Louis DESTANS (PS) 50,04%
Seine-et-Marne-7 : Yves ALBARELLO (UMP) 50,08%
Hérault-1 : Jean-Louis ROUMEGAS (EELV) 50,10%
Doubs-2 : Eric ALAUZET (EELV) 50,12%
Loiret-6 : Valérie CORRE (PS) 50,14%
Hauts-de-Seine-13 : Patrick DEVEDJIAN (UMP) 50,18%
Polynésie Française-3 : Jean-Paul TUAIVA (DVD) 50,24%
Indre-et-Loire-2 : Claude GREFF (UMP) 50,26%
Val-d'Oise-7 : Jérôme CHARTIER (UMP) 50,29%
Vaucluse-5 : Julien AUBERT (UMP) 50,33%
Vosges-4 : Christian FRANQUEVILLE (PS) 50,37%
Hauts-de-Seine-12 : Jean-Marc GERMAIN (PS) 50,44%
Val-d'Oise-6 : François SCELLIER (UMP) 50,49%
Isère-8 : Erwann BINET (PS) 50,57%
Eure-et-Loir-1 : Jean-Pierre GORGES (UMP) 50,78%
Seine-Saint-Denis-8 : Elisabeth POCHON (PS) 50,85%
Seine-Maritime-10 : Dominique CHAUVEL (PS) 50,93%


Pas-de-Calais-11 : Philippe KEMEL (PS) 50,11%
Bouches-du-Rhône-3 : Sylvie ANDRIEUX (PS) 50,99%


Hérault-6 : Dolores ROQUE (PS) 39,82% over Elie ABOUD (UMP) 39,80%
Oise-2 : Jean-François MANCEL (UMP) 38,97% over Sylvie HOUSSIN (PS) 38,85%
Bouches-du-Rhône-8 : Olivier FERRAND (PS) 40,48% over Nicolas ISNARD (UMP) 39,91%
Bouches-du-Rhône-12 : Vincent BURRONI (PS) 37,34% over Eric DIARD (UMP) 36,60%


Wallis-et-Futuna-AL : David VERGÉ (DVD) 41,61% over Mikaele KULIMOETOKE (DVG) 41,04%


Hauts-de-Seine-9 : Thierry SOLERE (DVD) 39,35% over Claude GUEANT (UMP) 38,41%


It seems like the right was significantly more picky than the left, considering that 14 out of 24 (HdS-9 excluded) regard seats won by the left. Meh, no idea what we should expect from this.


btw, Antonio, data.gouv has the results by department for the legislatives, so you could do some experiments with the 1986 system.

Great idea, I'll try to see what I can do. :)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 30, 2012, 06:32:29 AM
Bouches-du-Rhône-8 : Olivier FERRAND (PS)

Olivier Ferrand sadly died this morning of an anevrism, aged 42, after its jogging.
He was the founder of the controversial center-left think tank "Terra Nova".
He was elected to his first term earlier this month.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 30, 2012, 06:40:20 AM
Bouches-du-Rhône-8 : Olivier FERRAND (PS)

Olivier Ferrand sadly died this morning of an anevrism, aged 42, after its jogging.
He was the founder of the controversial center-left think tank "Terra Nova".
He was elected to his first term earlier this month.

Aged 42 ? Oh my God, that's horrible. :( May he RIP.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: big bad fab on June 30, 2012, 10:38:22 AM
List of contested elections per the ConCon:
http://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/conseil-constitutionnel/francais/elections-legislatives-2012/contentieux/contentieux-des-elections-legislatives-2012-tableau-general.114818.html

So many ? Well, looks like most of them concern seats which won very comfortably, so the likelihoods of an invalidation aren't very high. Here are the close races which have been contested.

Eure-2 : Jean-Louis DESTANS (PS) 50,04%
Seine-et-Marne-7 : Yves ALBARELLO (UMP) 50,08%
Hérault-1 : Jean-Louis ROUMEGAS (EELV) 50,10%
Doubs-2 : Eric ALAUZET (EELV) 50,12%
Loiret-6 : Valérie CORRE (PS) 50,14%
Hauts-de-Seine-13 : Patrick DEVEDJIAN (UMP) 50,18%
Polynésie Française-3 : Jean-Paul TUAIVA (DVD) 50,24%
Indre-et-Loire-2 : Claude GREFF (UMP) 50,26%
Val-d'Oise-7 : Jérôme CHARTIER (UMP) 50,29%
Vaucluse-5 : Julien AUBERT (UMP) 50,33%
Vosges-4 : Christian FRANQUEVILLE (PS) 50,37%
Hauts-de-Seine-12 : Jean-Marc GERMAIN (PS) 50,44%
Val-d'Oise-6 : François SCELLIER (UMP) 50,49%
Isère-8 : Erwann BINET (PS) 50,57%
Eure-et-Loir-1 : Jean-Pierre GORGES (UMP) 50,78%
Seine-Saint-Denis-8 : Elisabeth POCHON (PS) 50,85%
Seine-Maritime-10 : Dominique CHAUVEL (PS) 50,93%


Pas-de-Calais-11 : Philippe KEMEL (PS) 50,11%
Bouches-du-Rhône-3 : Sylvie ANDRIEUX (PS) 50,99%


Hérault-6 : Dolores ROQUE (PS) 39,82% over Elie ABOUD (UMP) 39,80%
Oise-2 : Jean-François MANCEL (UMP) 38,97% over Sylvie HOUSSIN (PS) 38,85%
Bouches-du-Rhône-8 : Olivier FERRAND (PS) 40,48% over Nicolas ISNARD (UMP) 39,91%
Bouches-du-Rhône-12 : Vincent BURRONI (PS) 37,34% over Eric DIARD (UMP) 36,60%


Wallis-et-Futuna-AL : David VERGÉ (DVD) 41,61% over Mikaele KULIMOETOKE (DVG) 41,04%


Hauts-de-Seine-9 : Thierry SOLERE (DVD) 39,35% over Claude GUEANT (UMP) 38,41%




Thanks for having done this, guys. I was too busy yesterday and too exhausted today.

Well, there are more invalidations in sight than in 2002 and 2007. Could be interesting.
But I'm pretty worried for Devedjian, Gorges, Greff and Chartier.
On the other hand, with some luck, Greens will lose 2 of them :P and Loiret will be entirely back in blue :P

And Marine could pull a belated victory. Though I'm sure administratrive judges will tear reality to be sure Kemel isn't invalidated :P  if need be (well, electoral procedures aren't completely fair... for example, Peyrefitte was probably "helped" in 1981)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 30, 2012, 10:40:45 AM
Based on your experience, how many invalidations would you predict ? It would be disgusting if the left's majority (already underwhelming for losing more close races than it won) were further shortened. :(


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 30, 2012, 10:47:48 AM
Based on your experience, how many invalidations would you predict ? It would be disgusting if the left's majority (already underwhelming for losing more close races than it won) were further shortened. :(

It may be underwhelming and all... but let's not forget that the left's majority is - I think - bigger than it was in 1997 (and obviously way bigger than in 1988). And even a one seat majority is better than this:

()

:)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: BritishDixie on June 30, 2012, 10:53:11 AM
What's going on in France makes me so happy.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 30, 2012, 11:02:53 AM
Based on your experience, how many invalidations would you predict ? It would be disgusting if the left's majority (already underwhelming for losing more close races than it won) were further shortened. :(

It may be underwhelming and all... but let's not forget that the left's majority is - I think - bigger than it was in 1997 (and obviously way bigger than in 1988). And even a one seat majority is better than this:

()

:)

Now, I know I'm a whining spoiled brat, no need to remind me. :P


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 30, 2012, 11:17:34 AM
Could you please quit spamming and trolling, Verwoerd?


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 30, 2012, 11:25:20 AM
BTW, for one I'm really hoping Devedjian survives. He's the only right-winger in the 92 who isn't a thug.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 30, 2012, 11:26:55 AM
BTW, for one I'm really hoping Devedjian survives. He's the only right-winger in the 92 who isn't a thug.

Well, Fromantin is a fairly good guy. There was an interesting article about him a few weeks ago in Le Monde, and he has the style of a moderate, pragmatic centre-rightist focused on governance rather than photo-ops and politicking.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 30, 2012, 12:01:39 PM
BTW, for one I'm really hoping Devedjian survives. He's the only right-winger in the 92 who isn't a thug.

Well, Fromantin is a fairly good guy. There was an interesting article about him a few weeks ago in Le Monde, and he has the style of a moderate, pragmatic centre-rightist focused on governance rather than photo-ops and politicking.

You're right about Fromentin, as usual I spoke a bit to early. ;) Of course, my real reason for liking Devedjian is that Sarkozy hates him. Isn't that a sufficient reason ? :P


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 30, 2012, 12:23:55 PM
One of the new PS deputies - Olivier Ferrand (Bouches-du-Rhône 8th) - has died suddenly.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: Hash on June 30, 2012, 12:32:56 PM
One of the new PS deputies - Olivier Ferrand (Bouches-du-Rhône 8th) - has died suddenly.

To make horrible things more horrible, his successor is a Guériniste stooge.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 30, 2012, 01:23:47 PM
Bouches-du-Rhône-8 : Olivier FERRAND (PS)

Olivier Ferrand sadly died this morning of an anevrism, aged 42, after its jogging.

"its"? Just because he's dead doesn't make him a thing.

Oh well. I blame your sleep deprivation. (RIP.)


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 30, 2012, 02:20:08 PM
Bouches-du-Rhône-8 : Olivier FERRAND (PS)

Olivier Ferrand sadly died this morning of an anevrism, aged 42, after its jogging.

"its"? Just because he's dead doesn't make him a thing.

Oh well. I blame your sleep deprivation. (RIP.)

You should blame my poor English skills, instead.


Title: Re: French legislative election 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on June 30, 2012, 02:37:14 PM
I know. I was joking. (And while it would have gotten that meaning across, what I wrote in French sounded totally wrong and John-Tory-style. God, has my "active" French gotten rusty... Passive comprehension is still good enough to read newspapers though.)