Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on May 01, 2012, 10:53:58 AM



Title: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 5 in KY-06
Post by: Tender Branson on May 01, 2012, 10:53:58 AM
A poll released Tuesday shows Democratic Congressman Ben Chandler is very well-positioned to win re-election in the 6th district congressional race this fall.

The survey, which was conducted by the Mellman Group in late March, gives Chandler a 24-point lead over his opponent, Republican Andy Barr (54% to 30%).

Chandler maintains very high name recognition (86%) among voters in his district, and the poll reveals that he is viewed far more favorably (52%) than Barr (24%).

In addition, the survey found that the recently redrawn 6th district is very problematic for Republicans, with Democrats holding a 48% to 30% voter ID advantage over Republicans. The poll further revealed that President Obama holds a 51% to 35% lead over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the new district.

The poll of 400 likely voters had a 4.9-point margin of error and was conducted from March 26 to March 28. A more detailed poll memorandum is attached.


http://www.lex18.com/news/poll-chandler-has-comfortable-lead-over-barr-for-congress

...

Somewhat curiously, the news article at the link above states the following:

Quote
A 51% majority view Romney unfavorably, while only 35% have a favorable view of the Republican challenger. As a result, President Obama currently leads Romney in a presidential trial heat (47% Obama, 42% Romney, 11% undecided).

Assuming that your text above is a quotation from what was at this link at the time you posted it, what seems probably to have happened is that the newspaper initially confused the presidential matchup with Romney's favorability but has now fixed it.


Title: Re: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 16 in KY-06
Post by: Tender Branson on May 01, 2012, 11:05:28 AM
Isn't this a rather good showing by Obama in KY-06 ?

Obama lost KY-06 by 43-55 in 2008.


Title: Re: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 16 in KY-06
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on May 01, 2012, 11:09:14 AM
Isn't this a rather good showing by Obama in KY-06 ?

Obama lost KY-06 by 43-55 in 2008.

Well, it's a new district, so you can't exactly compare the two as equals.


Title: Re: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 16 in KY-06
Post by: Tender Branson on May 01, 2012, 11:12:53 AM
Isn't this a rather good showing by Obama in KY-06 ?

Obama lost KY-06 by 43-55 in 2008.

Well, it's a new district, so you can't exactly compare the two as equals.

Yeah, but the new KY-06 didn't change much. Only a few rural counties were changed.


Title: Re: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 16 in KY-06
Post by: Gustaf on May 01, 2012, 11:15:00 AM
Isn't this a rather good showing by Obama in KY-06 ?

Obama lost KY-06 by 43-55 in 2008.



In addition, the survey found that the recently redrawn 6th district is very problematic for Republicans, with Democrats holding a 48% to 30% voter ID advantage over Republicans.






Title: Re: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 16 in KY-06
Post by: Tender Branson on May 01, 2012, 11:16:24 AM
Isn't this a rather good showing by Obama in KY-06 ?

Obama lost KY-06 by 43-55 in 2008.
In addition, the survey found that the recently redrawn 6th district is very problematic for Republicans, with Democrats holding a 48% to 30% voter ID advantage over Republicans.

()


Title: Re: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 16 in KY-06
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on May 01, 2012, 12:43:33 PM
If central Kentucky is anything like northern Kentucky, I can believe this poll - if I go by what I see on the ground.

Kentuckians' supposed love of Republicans has been grossly overestimated.


Title: Re: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 16 in KY-06
Post by: Brittain33 on May 01, 2012, 01:21:47 PM

In addition, the survey found that the recently redrawn 6th district is very problematic for Republicans, with Democrats holding a 48% to 30% voter ID advantage over Republicans.

Very misleading in KY.


Title: Re: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 16 in KY-06
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on May 01, 2012, 02:22:17 PM
Chandler is safe, and hopefully Obama will do better where Democrats will help people the most.


Title: Re: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 16 in KY-06
Post by: Miles on May 01, 2012, 02:24:34 PM
Isn't this a rather good showing by Obama in KY-06 ?

Obama lost KY-06 by 43-55 in 2008.

Well, it's a new district, so you can't exactly compare the two as equals.

Yeah, but the new KY-06 didn't change much. Only a few rural counties were changed.

The new district has 92% of the old one.


Title: Re: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 16 in KY-06
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on May 01, 2012, 03:14:42 PM
Somewhat curiously, the news article at the link above states the following:

Quote
A 51% majority view Romney unfavorably, while only 35% have a favorable view of the Republican challenger. As a result, President Obama currently leads Romney in a presidential trial heat (47% Obama, 42% Romney, 11% undecided).

Assuming that your text above is a quotation from what was at this link at the time you posted it, what seems probably to have happened is that the newspaper initially confused the presidential matchup with Romney's favorability but has now fixed it.


Title: Re: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 16 in KY-06
Post by: Sbane on May 01, 2012, 05:09:14 PM
I'm guessing the poll sucks. If Obama is winning here by that margin, we might as well just call off the election and give him four more years.


Title: Re: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 16 in KY-06
Post by: Eraserhead on May 01, 2012, 07:31:26 PM
Will there be a "mormon factor" in KY? Will the "mormon factor" be canceled out by the "negro factor"?


Title: Re: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 16 in KY-06
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on May 01, 2012, 07:45:45 PM
I kind of doubt that this district will swing 25% to Obama.  lol


Title: Re: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 16 in KY-06
Post by: old timey villain on May 01, 2012, 07:56:32 PM
Yo Fuzzybigfoot, care to explain the GA map you're using as your signature? I assume it's some old congressional districts.


Title: Re: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 16 in KY-06
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on May 01, 2012, 08:21:34 PM
Yo Fuzzybigfoot, care to explain the GA map you're using as your signature? I assume it's some old congressional districts.

It's the 2004 presidential results by congressional district.  ;)