Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Miles on May 01, 2012, 01:45:17 PM



Title: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: Miles on May 01, 2012, 01:45:17 PM
Here we go. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/nevada/election_2012_nevada_senate)

Dean Heller (R)- 51%
Shelley Berkley (D)- 40%


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on May 01, 2012, 01:48:09 PM
So Heller by 2 or 3 like the other polls.


Or is there something else going on here we should know about? Scandals?


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: Miles on May 01, 2012, 01:53:03 PM
I think I've heard some bad things about Berkley's campaign...I'm not exactly sure though.


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: Meeker on May 01, 2012, 01:54:45 PM
lol Scott


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: krazen1211 on May 01, 2012, 03:06:54 PM
Yep, Heller is a known elected statewide entity, while berkeley is under ethics investigation.


Congrats to Senator Heller!


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: DrScholl on May 01, 2012, 06:33:46 PM
Rasmussen isn't even hiding the bias anymore. PPP gets criticized, yet somehow this race is over because of a Rasmussen poll? Yeah, right. He'll probably have completely different numbers in the next poll.


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 02, 2012, 11:22:07 AM
I don't think Heller is as vulnerable here as many think. I suspect it'll be lean GOP on election day.


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: krazen1211 on May 02, 2012, 11:49:54 AM
I don't think Heller is as vulnerable here as many think. I suspect it'll be lean GOP on election day.

The same sample has Obama up 8 in Nevada. Heller is leading of course by a large margin because he is a great candidate with crossover appeal.


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: Miles on May 02, 2012, 12:11:31 PM
I don't think Heller is as vulnerable here as many think. I suspect it'll be lean GOP on election day.

The same sample has Obama up 8 in Nevada. Heller is leading of course by a large margin because he is a great candidate with crossover appeal.

You do know that this is the only poll here that shows the candidates more than 10 points apart?

I agree that Heller is up, but he isn't up by 11.


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: krazen1211 on May 02, 2012, 12:12:28 PM
I don't think Heller is as vulnerable here as many think. I suspect it'll be lean GOP on election day.

The same sample has Obama up 8 in Nevada. Heller is leading of course by a large margin because he is a great candidate with crossover appeal.

You do know that this is the only poll here that shows the candidates more than 10 points apart?

I agree that Heller is up, but he isn't up by 11.

Yes, of course. It is also the first poll I believe since Shelley's ethics scandal.


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: DrScholl on May 02, 2012, 12:17:57 PM
You don't get that much disparity between a presidential poll and senate poll in a state like this. The so-called scandal isn't even getting that much press.


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: Joe Republic on May 02, 2012, 12:19:51 PM
It is also the first poll I believe since Shelley's ethics scandal.

Uh, no.  This "scandal" came to light months ago.


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: krazen1211 on May 02, 2012, 12:24:54 PM
You don't get that much disparity between a presidential poll and senate poll in a state like this. The so-called scandal isn't even getting that much press.

Of course you do. In 2004 incumbent Senator Harry Reid got about 13% more than Presidential Challenger John Kerry.



Ethics investigations of course kicked off in late March.

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/mar/23/news/la-pn-nevada-rep-shelley-berkley-under-ethics-investigation-20120323


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: DrScholl on May 02, 2012, 02:46:47 PM
Harry Reid faced token opposition as an long time elected incumbent, this not an equal situation.

I'm not talking about late March, I'm talking about now and it's not top news right now. Rasmussen had Mack leading in Florida, then back tracked weeks later with in down more than a few points. Rasmussen is playing with numbers again.


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: Miles on May 02, 2012, 02:50:42 PM
Harry Reid faced token opposition as an long time elected incumbent, this not an equal situation.


Exactly. Richard Ziser was a nut who ran on the sole issue of stopping gay marriage.

Reid was also somewhat popular back then.


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on May 02, 2012, 03:05:49 PM
We needexd an independent like Oscar Goodman to run for the seat, a more mainstream candidate, like Harry Reid.


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: krazen1211 on May 02, 2012, 03:10:01 PM
Harry Reid faced token opposition as an long time elected incumbent, this not an equal situation.

I'm not talking about late March, I'm talking about now and it's not top news right now. Rasmussen had Mack leading in Florida, then back tracked weeks later with in down more than a few points. Rasmussen is playing with numbers again.

Actually, the same exact poll had Obama up 8 points. Rasmussen is presenting the poll and you're making up excuses.

Of course, the 2004 situation is about as close as equal as one is likely to get. Dean Heller has been elected already by the people of Nevada.


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: krazen1211 on May 02, 2012, 03:13:38 PM
Harry Reid faced token opposition as an long time elected incumbent, this not an equal situation.


Exactly. Richard Ziser was a nut who ran on the sole issue of stopping gay marriage.

Reid was also somewhat popular back then.

You might be the first liberal to use the 'great poll!' and 'junk poll!' lines on the same poll at the same time.

In 2000 of course John Ensign won the vacant Nevada Senate seat by 15 points. Governor George W. Bush won by about 3.

Seems like you have a big problem with the history of the state.


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: Svensson on May 02, 2012, 03:49:06 PM
Seems like you have a big problem with the history of the state.

Seems like you have a big problem with not acting like a todger in every debate you get into.


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: DrScholl on May 02, 2012, 04:31:33 PM

Actually, the same exact poll had Obama up 8 points. Rasmussen is presenting the poll and you're making up excuses.

Of course, the 2004 situation is about as close as equal as one is likely to get. Dean Heller has been elected already by the people of Nevada.

No excuses, just stating the facts that Rasmussen shows much better results for Republicans than other polls do.


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 02, 2012, 04:42:08 PM
Of course, the 2004 situation is about as close as equal as one is likely to get. Dean Heller has been elected already by the people of Nevada.

He's been elected (repeatedly) by about a third of the people of Nevada. Are you treating either them or perhaps Brian Sandoval as a synecdoche of the entire state?


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on May 02, 2012, 04:50:18 PM
Uh, didn't this same Harry Reid win and beat the disgraced Ensign in 1998?


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: Miles on May 02, 2012, 04:58:37 PM
Of course, the 2004 situation is about as close as equal as one is likely to get. Dean Heller has been elected already by the people of Nevada.

He's been elected (repeatedly) by about a third of the people of Nevada. Are you treating either them or perhaps Brian Sandoval as a synecdoche of the entire state?

Well, Heller was elected SoS between 1994 and 2006. I thought you'd rather have me call you out on that than krazen! ;)


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on May 02, 2012, 05:56:41 PM
So Heller by 2 or 3 like the other polls.


Or is there something else going on here we should know about? Scandals?

There are no other polls.  PPP has only done one poll, and other than that, it's just one Rasmussen poll since the start of the year.


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on May 02, 2012, 05:57:47 PM
Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2012/polls.php?fips=32&class=1


Title: Re: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead
Post by: krazen1211 on May 03, 2012, 09:34:58 AM
Uh, didn't this same Harry Reid win and beat the disgraced Ensign in 1998?

Yes, by roughly 500 votes. Ensign of course won a large victory 2 years later, and again in 2006 over Jack Carter.