Talk Elections

Just looking at your home state, who do you think will win and what will be the MoV 6 months from now.

I have a hard time seeing Mitt Romney sweeping all 77 counties in Oklahoma.  I believe he will win decisively, of course, but I can Obama picking off 5-6 counties and possibly holding Romney to high 50's to near 60 here.  We don't like Obama, but we are not a fan of Romney, either.  Obama himself could muster between 38-41%.  I'm going to go with a 59-40% Romney Victory.

How many times do I get to vote?

56-43 Obama.

51%-47% Romney

54-46 Romney

57-41 Obama

Obama 53% - Romney 45%

Hmm... I am going with Fuzzy's take: 57-41.
But here is my crazy prediction: Obama flips Spokane county

Georgia 50-48 Romney

Gwinnett, Cobb and Henry counties flip

I think Obama's margin in New Jersey relative to the national margin will decrease from 8.26% to just barely below 8%

Let's assume Canada is quickly conquered and Ontario is admitted to the Union sometime before the election.

The ballot would probably include Mitt Romney (R), Barack Obama (D), and Thomas Mulcair (NDP). The current Conservative and Liberal Parties in Canada would be rendered pretty meaningless with R and D candidates on the ballot. Mulcair would emerge as the socialist option that many Ontarians would want.

Let's look at how Ontario voted in 2011.

Conservative: 45%
Liberal: 25%
NDP: 25%
Other: 5%

It's hard to know where these votes would go if the options were Romney, Obama, and Mulcair. Let's assume 25% of Ontario would stay NDP. I bet half the old Liberals would break NDP, only because the Dems are still certainly to the right of where the Liberals stood.

Mulcair: 38%

The other 12% of the Liberal vote would go to Obama. The Conservative Party would then divide itself between Romney and Obama.

Obama: 34%
Romney: 23%

The thing is, Obama can pull in a lot of stupid people based solely on his rhetoric and oratory skills. So I'd give some of Mulcair's numbers to Obama. Maybe we'd have a breakdown like this...

Obama: 38%
Mulcair: 31%
Romney: 26%
Other: 5%

55-56% Obama

49-49 either way.

That's not a crazy prediction. A crazy one would be Yakima or Franklin. At some point these 50% Hispanic counties should be voting D(obviously not 2012). I wonder how much closer they would be if Democrats put in an organization there if WA was a swing state.

My adopted home state: IL Obama 59-40

True, but its about as 'crazy' as I am willing to get. Yakima and Franklin probably wont begin turning around for another 10-15 years or so; many of the Latinos living in those communities either are not registered to vote or cannot do so ('illegal' immigrants), when their kids grow up however republicans in the state could be in some serious trouble. Combining a pretty liberal white population on the west side with a sizable minority population (reaching majority status in some counties) will force a pretty large change on state politics, or at least on the state republican party.

Though then again the WA republican party has been pretty good lately at ignoring recent trends/realities.

57-41 Obama, with Litchfield flipping.

Texas - 54/44 Romney

55-44 Obama

Colorado 50/49 Romney

54/45 Romney

Obama 54
Romney 44

I think Obama will win NV for sure, but by THAT MARGIN?!?!

It's a smaller margin than 2008.

Oh yeah I see.

Barack 61-36 same as last time and Champaign and Dupage will go democratic again.

51/47 Obama

And actually I'm being very conservative with my prediction here. If things don't change that could go up to 56-43.

NY will go 55-60% dem

55-44 Romney

Eh, perhaps....

52-46 Obama, Mittens only doing slightly worse than McCain after a long campaign.

Michigan 59-41.

Auto bail-out, largest percentage of African-Americans north of the Mason-Dixon Line.

I don't think Obama will achieve the same (or a higher) margin of victory here compared to 2008. I'd guess his vote percentage will most likely be between 53-55% in 2012

I see the Democrats are making predictions like it's May, 1980.

My real home, the economic powerhouse of the nation and the one everyone wishes they could claim to be natives of, will crush Obama something like 59-41.  My state-of-exile with its southern half full of idiot Yankee refugees, will still pound Obama by something like 53-47.

Meanwhile, I should keep track of all these predictions.  :)

California (my step-dad's former state) will vote Obama 60-39.

Pennsylvania:

Obama 55
Romney 45

Colorado:

53-45

Mississippi

57-42 Romney

Obama could lose, but this is nothing like 1980. The world is different, the election issues are way different. Romney is not Reagan, Obama is not Carter.

Too close to call at the moment. Romney isn't Reagan by a long shot but Obama the anti-Reagan is Carter times 10.

The Indiana base does not like either.

I've always wondered why Indiana is so conservative compared to other Midwestern states?

No big metropolis like Illinois
Not as many unionized manufacturing workers like in Ohio
Not as large of an urban African American population like Michigan
No large progressive Scandinavian population like Wisconsin or Minnesota

Indiana basically has all of the Republican voters typical in the Midwest without any of the Democratic ones

I still don't know exactly how Indiana voted for Obama. I'm sure being wedged in between a swing state and Obama's home state had a large effect on people there. I figure a lot of Indianans voted for Obama out of sheer economic desperation. A lot of them will probably revert back to the GOP as the typical culture war/post-modern economic issues take center stage, rather than the "holy crap we're all screwed" meme of 2008.

Gary, Indiana doesn't count?

You're a native of Texas currently living in Florida?  

I don't think Obama will get that low in TX....pffft...Plus TX despite the oil, defense, and other industries, it's a poor state, I don't see how it's an economic powerhouse, I LIVE HERE.

I mean, it counts in that it's a large, heavily black city, but it still doesn't add up to the AA population in Michigan, Illinois or even Ohio. Indiana is only 9% black.

Obama 60-38

Romney 56
Obama 43

Florida: Obama 50, Romney 47

Illinois: 62-36 Obama.

54% Romney
45% Obama

Good guess!  Or was it just good clues?

Virtually everyone in my large family lives in Texas -- scattered all over the state.  The only exceptions are me (in Florida) and one of my brothers who lives in California.  From what I've seen over the years, Texans rarely realize just how much it sucks outside of Texas.  One big clue:  All the people who are flooding to Texas from failed states in the Midwest, Northeast and the far West.

Texas isn't a poor state -- though obviously it hasn't the rich resources of California.  What it is is the last hope and refuge of large numbers of poor people who accept the miserable climate and ugly scenery of Texas because they can't afford to live where the weather and topography are nice but collectivists rule.

The great thing is that these newcomers usually become "more Texan than the Texans" because, unlike most American states, Texas actually has an attractive culture.

Are you sure you live in Florida?  Because Obama has no chance.  (Well, unless he can get masses of illegal aliens to vote.)

50-49 Romney, PA and NJ flip to return the GOP to the White House.

I'll go with somewhere in this range.

As for OK, I think Bushie's a bit optimistic for Obama; while I do think a mild D swing is possible, 38% is maybe his ceiling. And I don't think Romney sweeping every county is that far-fetched either.


You sure it's not a bit more than that?

another one that thinks illegals vote? This is my face right now

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Voter fraud is well known in this country and still going on today.

Which trolling school did you go to?

To a Republican anyone who is born outside of US is illegal.

Uh-huh. Uh-huh.

Then why is it a laughingstock, and why does the 'economic powerhouse of the nation' lead the nation in uninsured and in growth in jobs that reflect badly on the concept of job growth?



Anyway, 57-41 or thereabouts.

How it have an attractive culture, when most of the state lives in poverty?

I am entirely sure I live in, was born in, and have since birth lived in Florida. I don't know the political moods up in Lafayette or Liberty or Holmes or Dixie or whatever county you're in, but down here in Pinellas/Hillsborough/Pasco/Hernando, people don't like Obama but they certainly don't like Willington Mittford Romneyfeller III.

ahh, the old "(democratic candidate) won in (swing state) because of voter fraud/illegal aliens."

Wouldn't it be great if one really could write off a loss that easily by simply blaming fraud. Of course for a lot of Obama haters, it's mentally impossible for them to accept that Obama won these states due to running a better campaign or being preferred by the majority of its citizens. Voter fraud may exist in very small numbers in very small pockets, but it's far from the democratic threat that some people make it out to be. I guess it's just a good talking point, and confirms people's paranoid fears about immigrants and minorities.

And maybe it's not so wise to blame voter fraud on hispanic voters in Florida. I mean, the only reason FL isn't a strong D state is because Cubans vote Republican, so don't push your luck.

I agree with you that Texas's culture leaves a bit to be desired, but this is a tad hyperbolic (and I don't really see how these are mutually exclusive, but I digress).

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Colorado 52/47 Obama

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This whole thread.

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NJ: 54-43 Obama

NE:  59R, 39D, 2O.

56-42 Washington

Also, what's so shocking about the Obama kind of looking at Arizona and Georgia? Clinton, the last winning dem, won both of them one time during his two campaigns.

One thing I'd like to see is Obama doing a lot better in my home state than in 2008 (not by much, but by one or two points), that would be surprising.