Title: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Tender Branson on May 03, 2012, 10:51:55 AM Post your May 6 predictions here:
France (President, 2nd round) 52.3% Hollande 47.7% Sarkozy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2012 Greece (Parliament) 19% ND 15% PASOK 14% SYRIZA 11% ANEL 11% KKE 10% XA 10% DIMAR 3% Greens 3% LAOS 2% DRASI 1% ANTARSYA 1% Others http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election,_2012 Serbia (Parliament & President) 32% SNS 30% DS 12% SPS 6% LDP 6% DSS 5% SRS 4% URS 5% Others http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbian_parliamentary_election,_2012 30% Nikolić (SNS) 29% Tadić (DS) 41% Others http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbian_presidential_election,_2012 Germany: Schleswig-Holstein (State Parliament) 31% CDU 30% SPD 12% Pirates 12% Greens 6% FDP 4% SSW 2% Left 3% Others http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schleswig-Holstein_state_election,_2012 Armenia (Parliament) 41% Republican Party 34% Prosperous Armenia 25% Others http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_parliamentary_election,_2012 Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Insula Dei on May 03, 2012, 10:58:25 AM May 6 is going to be an awful lot of fun if everything goes right.
Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on May 03, 2012, 11:00:14 AM Why do there not appear to have been any polls in Greece for about two weeks?
Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Tender Branson on May 03, 2012, 11:04:30 AM Why do there not appear to have been any polls in Greece for about two weeks? Poll ban law ahead of the election. Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Insula Dei on May 03, 2012, 11:05:15 AM Why do there not appear to have been any polls in Greece for about two weeks? I seem to recall vaguely that Greece has government regulations banning polling during the last part of the campaign. Very well possible I'm mistaken though. Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on May 03, 2012, 11:06:38 AM Huh, that's certainly considerably severer than, say, France's.
Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 03, 2012, 01:10:09 PM So basically we have no idea what's going to happen in Greece then? That's fun.
Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 01:11:11 PM Basically it means dice. Maybe there have been illegal polls?
Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Meeker on May 03, 2012, 01:17:17 PM My understanding is that polling isn't actually illegal but rather the broadcasting of poll results is illegal.
Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 01:44:03 PM My understanding is that polling isn't actually illegal but rather the broadcasting of poll results is illegal. And there, in a nutshell, is why Greece has gone to hell. Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Beet on May 03, 2012, 02:24:26 PM What's the rationale for these kinds of restrictions (campaigning or running ads on election day in France, broadcasting poll results in Greece)? It seems to be common in a lot of countries but I genuinely don't understand.
Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 03, 2012, 02:28:31 PM What's the rationale for these kinds of restrictions (campaigning or running ads on election day in France, broadcasting poll results in Greece)? It seems to be common in a lot of countries but I genuinely don't understand. Giving the voters a couple days to "chill out" from the mediatic noise and to reflect to their choice in intimacy. Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Meeker on May 03, 2012, 03:31:49 PM I don't know if this is the intended effect, but I suspect it helps minor parties and candidates by making their supporters less inclined to ditch them in favor of the front-running parties at the last minute.
It also prevents the annoying self-fulfilling polling surge problem we see sometimes (media says a party is surging in the polls when they aren't really and but then they actually are because voters become convinced they are and want to support a winner). Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Bacon King on May 04, 2012, 12:58:54 AM I'll take a shot at this...
France (President, 2nd round) 52.7% Hollande 47.3% Sarkozy Greece (Parliament) 18% ND 16% SYRIZA 15% ANEL 11% PASOK 9% KKE 9% XA 8% DIMAR 4% Greens 3% LAOS 2% ANTARSYA 5% Others (all other parties <1% each) Serbia (Parliament & President) 35% SNS 28% DS 13% SPS 6% DSS 5% LDP 4% SRS 3% URS 6% Others 35% Nikolić (SNS) 35% Tadić (DS) 9% Dačić (SPS) 8% Stanković (URS) 7% Koštunica (DSS) 3% Jovanović (LDP) 3% others Germany: Schleswig-Holstein (State Parliament) 34% SPD 29% CDU 15% Greens 7% Pirates 5% FDP 4% SSW 4% Left 2% Others Armenia (Parliament) 37% Republican Party 27% Prosperous Armenia 12% Armenian Revolutionary Federation 8% Heritage 6% Armenian National Congress 6% Rule of Law 2% other Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 04, 2012, 04:29:35 PM If there were an intrade for Greek elections I would put $5 on the Nazis winning over 15%.
Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Zuza on May 04, 2012, 08:26:40 PM France (President, 2nd round)
51.2% Hollande 48.8% Sarkozy Greece (Parliament) 20% ND 14.5% PASOK 13% SYRIZA 12% KKE 10% ANEL 8.5% XA 6% DIMAR 4% Greens 3% LAOS 3% DISY 1% DRASI 1% ANTARSYA 4% Others Serbia (Parliament & President) 33% SNS 27% DS 12% SPS 7% LDP 6% DSS 5.5% SRS 4% URS 5.5% Others 30.5% Nikolić (SNS) 30% Tadić (DS) 14% Stanković (URS) 9.5% Dačić (SPS) 6% Jovanović (LDP) 4.5% Koštunica (DSS) 5.5% others Germany: Schleswig-Holstein (State Parliament) 32.5% CDU 32.5% SPD 12.5% Greens 6.5% FDP 6.5% Pirates 4% SSW 2.5% Left 3% Others Armenia (Parliament) 37.5% Republican Party 31.5% Prosperous Armenia 9.5% Armenian National Congress 7.5% Rule of Law 6.5% Armenian Revolutionary Federation 5% Heritage 2.5% other Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Simfan34 on May 04, 2012, 08:55:54 PM If there were an intrade for Greek elections I would put $5 on the Nazis winning over 15%. What would happen in that case? Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 04, 2012, 09:18:03 PM If there were an intrade for Greek elections I would put $5 on the Nazis winning over 15%. What would happen in that case? Nothing significant, it's an arbitrary number. But they were surging in the polls before polling stopped and they're exactly the kind of party that would do better on election day than their polling. Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: LastVoter on May 05, 2012, 04:21:30 AM may need to start an IRC chat for the shenanigans.
Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: minionofmidas on May 05, 2012, 04:45:11 AM So basically we have no idea what's going to happen in Greece then? That's fun. Alas, I'll presumably be quite drunk by the time I get back from Karlsruhe on sunday and have to work on monday, so my fun with all these elections may be somewhat delayed. Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Bacon King on May 05, 2012, 06:42:29 AM If there were an intrade for Greek elections I would put $5 on the Nazis winning over 15%. What would happen in that case? Nothing significant, it's an arbitrary number. But they were surging in the polls before polling stopped and they're exactly the kind of party that would do better on election day than their polling. If the Golden Dawn manages 15%, it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility for them to be first place and win the fifty bonus seats. Especially if there's a fairly even split on the left, and the increase in XA support comes mostly at the expense of ND rather than ANEL. Something like this: XA: 15% ND: 14% PASOK: 13% SYRIZA: 12% DIMAR: 11% ANEL: 11% KKE: 9% LAOS: 5% EcoGreen: 4% others: 6% That's a bit of a scary prospect. Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Franzl on May 05, 2012, 07:29:21 AM Polls in Germany always close at 18:00 Central European. I think France closes at 20:00? What about Greece?
Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: minionofmidas on May 05, 2012, 07:31:02 AM voting takes place "from sunrise to sunset" but times are usually rounded to the nearest "top of the hour" (e.g., 7 am to 8 pm)
Haha, that's great. And ought to lead to major differences in turnout between summer and winter elections. Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Bacon King on May 05, 2012, 07:56:44 AM voting takes place "from sunrise to sunset" but times are usually rounded to the nearest "top of the hour" (e.g., 7 am to 8 pm) Haha, that's great. LOL. Odd and kind of an arcane law. Given that, say, Sunrise and sunset tomorrow in Rhodes (http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.html?n=772), when rounded, are both an hour earlier than sunrise/sunset in Corfu (http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.html?n=2354), does this mean polling times in these places will be different? If an election is held at a time of year when sunset falls at exactly half past the hour in the center of Greece, does half of the country have to stop voting an hour before the other half? Quote And ought to lead to major differences in turnout between summer and winter elections. A bit of cursory research indicates that isn't the case, surprisingly. For example, the June and November elections in 1989 had almost identical turnout. Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 05, 2012, 08:16:51 AM voting takes place "from sunrise to sunset" but times are usually rounded to the nearest "top of the hour" (e.g., 7 am to 8 pm) That's one of the most ridiculous election laws I've ever heard of. Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Tender Branson on May 05, 2012, 08:23:09 AM voting takes place "from sunrise to sunset" but times are usually rounded to the nearest "top of the hour" (e.g., 7 am to 8 pm) That's one of the most ridiculous election laws I've ever heard of. Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Kushahontas on May 05, 2012, 10:04:49 AM XA 15%
ND in 2nd Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 07:05:52 AM I'm going to say Hollande wins 53-47.
Greece is difficult but ND seems pretty certain to be the largest party. Oh, and SPD-Greens-SSW with a majority in S-H. Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Niemeyerite on May 06, 2012, 12:12:45 PM France:
Hollande 53.4% Sarkozy 46.6% Greece: ND 18% SRYZA 16% PASOK 12.5% XA 10.5% ANEL 10% KKE 10% DIMAR 6% Greens 4.5% LAOS 3.5% DISY 3% KOISY 1.5% ANTARSYA 1% Others 3.5% Germany (S-H): SPD 33.5% CDU 31% Greens 11.5% Pirates 6.5% FDP 6.5% SSW 5% Left 2.5% Others 3.5% Title: Re: The Big May 6 Prediction Thread Post by: Beet on May 12, 2012, 01:52:14 AM So the good news is that XA only got 7%; the bad news is that they apparently got 13% among young voters, just behind SYRIZA with 16%.
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