Talk Elections

While we've had a female Speaker, for obvious reasons we have yet to have a female President Pro Tempore of the Senate.

How long will it be until this happens?

And, for kicks, what about these other offices in the Presidential line of succession that have yet to be filled by a woman:

Vice President?
Secretary of the Treasury?
Secretary of Defense?
Secretary of Veterans Affairs?

I dunno. Who's the oldest female Senator?

Dianne Feinstein, who is 78, is the oldest female Senator. The second oldest female Senator is Barbara Mikulski, who is 75. The third oldest is Barbara Boxer, who is 71.

Not sure about that- but for those four can be anytime...rumor had it Hillary would switch to SECDEF for the second term but I'm sure that was just a rumor...and Tammy Duckworth would make an outstanding VA Secretary- she's qualified for it having been an Asst Sec and head of Illinois VA

Also- I believe President Pro Tem is determind by seniority- not simply age, so a list on Wikipedia shows Mikulski then Feinstein then Boxer

President Pro Temp is decided by seniority, not age.  Mikulski is the most senior woman in the Senate, and she's 75 years old.  The Democrats more senior than her and their ages:

Inouye 87
Leahy 72
Baucus 70
Levin 77
Bingaman 68
Kerry 68
Harkin 72
Rockefeller 74

Bingaman is retiring this year, and Kerry is widely considered the frontrunner to be appointed by Obama as Secretary of State in his second term if Obama's reelected.  If that happens, then Mikulski would just have to outlast the men who're now in their early 70s, like Leahy, Baucus, and Rockefeller.  Certainly *possible*, but not a sure thing.  It's unlikely to happen until at least 2025 or so.  And even then, you'd need a Dem majority for her to be the President Pro Temp.

If Mikulski doesn't pull it off, then the most likely Democratic woman to become the first female President Pro Temp is Patty Murray, who's 61 years old, and is younger than every single Senator who's more senior than her.  But she likely wouldn't become President Pro Temp for at least 20 years.  And again, she would need a Dem majority.

The most senior Republican woman who isn't retiring this year is Susan Collins, who's 59 years old, and also younger than every single senator who's more senior than her.  So she also has a very good chance of eventually becoming President Pro Temp, assuming she doesn't get primaried out of office or something.

On the other offices you mentioned, I'd assume that there's a better than 50/50 chance that there'll be a female Secretary of the Treasury within the next 10 years or so.  Probably longer than that for SecDef.

For the presidency and the vice presidency......my assumption is that there's a >95% chance that the 2016 Democratic ticket has a woman on it.  Whether it's as the presidential or vice presidential candidate probably depends on whether or not Clinton runs.  In fact, my assumption is that virtually every election from now on will see the Dems nominate a woman for either prez or VP.  On the GOP side, starting from around 2020 (if not earlier), they'll start having either a woman or racial minority paired with a while male in every presidential election.  Though how often that'll be a woman rather than a male racial minority, I don't know.

It wouldn't necessarily require that a female be of the majority party to get to be PPT.  Assuming the Milton Young precedent is followed, it would only be needful that she be the senior member of her party at the time of her retirement.  Granted, she'd only get to be PPT for a day, but she would get to be PPT.

On the Republican side, Hutchison and Snowe are the two most senior, but they're retiring. Collins will be the next most senior. There are 10 non-retiring Republicans ahead of her, but she's 59, and they're all 70+ except for Sessions (who has served the same length but is more senior).

The Dean of the House doesn't have special significance. However, Kaptur who recently took out Kucinch in a two incumbent primary is 25th most senior and is only 65.

I don't know about the Democrats always nominating a woman on their ticket. But I think we can agree that the days of two white men on the Democratic ticket are over. Diversity isn't the only consideration given. Otherwise I imagine the Supreme Court would have a Protestant.