Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Election What-ifs? => Topic started by: NHI on May 08, 2012, 03:55:50 PM



Title: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 08, 2012, 03:55:50 PM
()
"I want us to start anew. We are the Republican Party, but we are as a great man once said, a big tent party, inclusive to all ideas, beliefs and ideas. We stand offering a choice. I respect Pres. Clinton, he has served this country honorably and well, but we need a change, a change from the big government dominance and a return to small government, lower taxes and more freedom. With your help I ask to forge that new beginning."

()
"Let us build that bridge to the 21st century together."

Powell v. Clinton
46%       43%

"What a great fall campaign lies ahead."
"And what a great campaign this has been thus far."

()
Republican Nomination: October 1995

Powell: 27%
Kemp: 21%
Buchanan: 19%
Forbes: 17%
Alexander: 9%
Graham: 6%

Powell declares his campaign for President in November 1995. "I will not cater to the extremes, I am who I am. I run as a Republican, but if elected I will speak for all Americans."

More to come...


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on May 08, 2012, 08:12:25 PM
Cool stuff. :)


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: Pingvin on May 09, 2012, 02:18:39 AM
POWELL/KEYES '96!


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 09, 2012, 10:51:00 AM
With Colin Powell's entrance into the race, the fight for the GOP nomination changed dramatically. Original frontrunner Bob Dole did not enter the race and endorsed Powell before a crowd in New Hampshire. With the conservative vote split in Iowa, many believed Powell had a chance to win the state, which would in turn set him up for New Hampshire.

However, Powell concentrated his efforts on winning the Granite State, as it became apparent that Jack Kemp's lead in Iowa was insurmountable.

()
Dole endorses Powell.

Many other Republicans such as Newt Gingrich, George H.W. Bush, George Allen, George W. Bush, and John McCain all endorsed Powell, calling him a true statesman and only candidate in the race capable of beating Clinton in 1996.

Powell's race did surface and many wondered how much of a factor it would play in the campaign at all. In a campaign speech in Ohio, Powell addressed the issue in what the media dubbed the "Race in American speech"

()
"I understand that there are those who are hesitant or perhaps unsure, though I do not view myself a historic figure. I am not a candidate for President of the United States, because I am a black man. I am candidate for President of the United States because I hope to be able to speak for the millions of Americans, of all backgrounds, of all walks of life. Inclusion, as a party that is what we must be able to do. Inclusion for all people, we welcome you into the Republican Party with open arms, for we represent your dreams, your ideas and ambitions. We play to your hopes, not to your fears. As President that is the task I will have be for me, to see that your dreams are still obtainable. I ask for your support, and I ask for your help in this campaign. Judge me not by the color of my skin, but by my actions. On my resume, and on my plans for America.

Supreme Court Justice John Marshall Harlan said of the Constitution of the United States that it is colorblind and neither knows nor tolerates classes among citizens. Yes I am a black man, but I am also a candidate for the Presidency, and when you vote, vote for all of me, not  a part. People tell me all the time I could make history, and while I acknowledge it, I am not running for history, I am running because I love my country, and for all that she has given me, I want to serve and give back."

Iowa Caucuses Poll:
Kemp: 28%
Powell: 24%
Buchanan: 14%
Forbes: 13%
Alexander: 11%
Graham: 9%

"If the vote splinters in Iowa, Powell could seal it up there."

"I think you're right. Buchanan poses a challenge in New Hampshire and South Carolina will be a test, but all in all Powell is in good shape."

Iowa Caucuses:
Powell: 25.7%
Kemp: 24.6%
Buchanan: 16.0%
Forbes: 14.8%
Graham: 9.9%
Alexander: 8.0%

In a surprising upset Powell won the Iowa caucuses, creating national and international headlines. Despite his triumph over Kemp, he did not concede the nomination and moved forward to challenge Powell in New Hampshire. Both Graham and Alexander ended their bids and endorsed Kemp and Powell respectively. Forbes and Buchanan remained in the race, with the latter hoping to capitalize on his strong showing from 1992 and use it to upset Powell.

()
The Media hailed Powell as "The Face of the GOP"

()
Powell campaigns in New Hampshire, with Kemp and Buchanan nipping at his heels.

()
"I predict we're going to do well in this state."

()
"Friends in 1992, we shocked the political establishment with a strong showing in the New Hampshire primary, let's shock the establishment again and win the Live Free or Die State...We do not want our party to be represented by a moderate. A pro-choice, weak, moderate who only rose through the ranks because of this skin color."

Buchanan's statement of Powell damaged him going into New Hampshire and Powell went onto to crush him in the primary. Kemp surpassed Buchanan for second and showed he still had a fight in him.

New Hampshire:
Powell: 45.8%
Kemp: 31.1%
Forbes: 13.0%
Buchanan: 9.5%

Following the primary Buchanan ended his bid, but he did not endorsed a candidate. Forbes remained in the race, hoping to have a better showing in Delaware.

Heading into Delaware Powell received the biggest endorsement of the campaign. In an open letter Ronald and Nancy Reagan announced their endorsement of Colin Powell for President.

"...We normally would wait until there is a nominee, but it is apparent who the nominee will be and we could not happier....so today we announce our endorsement of Colin Powell for the Republican nomination. He has served this country with honor and will do the same as President of the United States.

-- Pres. Ronald Reagan, Nancy Reagan.

()


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on May 09, 2012, 07:39:57 PM
Pat was s'posed to win NH! (I keep forgetting how to do the shocked face) Also, when did Kemp up and decide to enter?


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 09, 2012, 07:42:00 PM
Pat was s'posed to win NH! (I keep forgetting how to do the shocked face) Also, when did Kemp up and decide to enter?

With Dole bowing out of the race he began the de-facto frontrunner as he ran in 1988 and was a conservative favorite. His ride in the primary race is not over yet.


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 09, 2012, 08:02:34 PM
Delaware Primary:

Forbes: 34%
Powell: 33%
Kemp: 32%

Powell received a rocky start after the New Hampshire primary, receiving two setbacks in his momentum. First with Forbes' surprising upset in Delaware and Kemp's commanding victory in Arizona. Following Arizona, Powell lost South Dakota to Kemp, but won North Dakota. The real test lied in South Carolina, and many wondered if Powell would be able to pull out a victory in the conservative stronghold, now that it was a two-man race, with Forbes out.

()
Kemp scores a needed win in Arizona.

(
)
Powell
Kemp
Forbes

Going into South Carolina, Kemp led Powell by two points, though he had managed to bring that down from a seven point lead a week earlier. On that same night the Wyoming caucuses gave Kemp another victory, but the real focus remained on South Carolina.

South Carolina: 8:51
Kemp: 298,998 52.02%
Powell: 274,560 (47.77%)

Kemp was ultimately declared the winner, and ended beating Powell by four points. The lost was a blow to the Powell campaign, as no Republican had ever won the nomination without winning South Carolina...


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: sentinel on May 11, 2012, 12:13:36 AM
Forbes would have been out after losing so many states. Otherwise this is good.


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 11, 2012, 10:26:35 AM
Following his loss in South Carolina, Powell's campaign readjusted to the change reality of the campaign. The momentum belonged to Kemp, and March 5th, the next primary date which held nine contest looked to threaten Powell's chances at the nomination.

()
Powell hits the stump, hoping to stop Kemp's momentum.

Powell hit the trail and made a series of campaign through the hotly contested contest states of Massachusetts, Colorado, Minnesota, and Georgia. In one day he held thirty-seven campaign stops. "I am not campaigning and running for the past, I am running for the future." In his stump speeches he looked to draw contrasts with Kemp. A strong advocate of supply side economics, Powell hoped to find some middle ground and appeal to more than just the Republican base.

Kemp looked to draw distinctions with Powell too, particularly on the issue of abortion. Powell, a pro-choice Republican was lambasted by Kemp and other pro-life groups for his stance. Powell countered it by saying, "We need to be the party of inclusion and on that issue, just as Barry Goldwater has sated, it is not a conservative issue, and any effort to take a way such right is an encroachment on our civil liberties."

The abortion issue would not go away, but Powell's stance helped him with independents, and moderate Democrats who has lost faith in Clinton. In a continued effort to draw distinctions, Kemp declared Powell to not be a true conservative, however in a surprising endorsement, former Senator and Mr. Conservative himself Barry Goldwater endorsed Powell for the Presidency.

"...If you believe in civil liberties, limited government, less spending and lower taxes, like General Powell does, then he's a conservative and any effort to say otherwise is pathetic." -- Barry Goldwater, on endorsing Colin Powell.

March 5th:

The day of the nine contests, Powell scored some impressive over Kemp. Powell swept the Northeast contests, taking Vermont, Connecticut, Maine and Massachusetts. Powell also swept Maryland by a healthy margin and took Colorado, albeit narrowly. 49%-49%.

Kemp easily took Minnesota, but Georgia remained in question throughout the night.

Georgia:
Powell: 49.35%
Kemp: 49.30%

Kemp would ultimately win the state, but the night belonged to Powell. He had carried the most states and wrapped up the more delegates.

"Tonight Colin Powell came back." --

Two days later in the New York Primary, Powell delivered an embarrassing setback to Kemp, by defeating him in his home state.

New York:
Powell: 50.47%
Kemp: 49.44%

Kemp would not recover and went onto lose the Missouri Primary, be trounced by Powell in the Florida contest, a few days later.

Florida:
Powell: 55.91%
Kemp: 44.33%

Kemp scored three narrow victory in Mississippi, Louisiana and Oklahoma, the same day as Florida, but lose the rest of the contests that day to Powell, some by double digit margins.

With his campaign resources depleted and his support waning, Kemp thought about bowing out of the race, but with the March 19th primary offering a chance for a comeback, he stuck it out, hoping to carry at least two of the four states. However, his efforts failed. Powell swept every contest and the following day Kemp ended his bid and endorsed him for President.

On March 20th, Powell made history becoming the first African-American to the secure the nomination of a major party for President.

(
)
Powell: Nominee
Kemp:
Forbes:


()
The Republican Nominee

Clinton v. Powell:
Clinton: 45%
Powell: 45%


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on May 11, 2012, 01:08:52 PM
Yay! Also, I agree with your thoughts on Goldwater's endorsement.


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: LiberalJunkie on May 11, 2012, 06:38:59 PM
Awesome timeline :D Powell would make a great president!


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: Jerseyrules on May 11, 2012, 08:43:02 PM
Yay! Also, I agree with your thoughts on Goldwater's endorsement.

This TL has a healthy helping of awesome sauce, that's for sure!  ;)

Powell / Kemp 1996!


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 12, 2012, 01:33:41 PM
()
Clinton begins the general election campaign.

Most polls put Clinton and Powell in a statistical tie, with some polls favoring Clinton by a few points. Even with the ever growing presence of Ross Perot on the ticket, the polls were still tight.

()
Powell makes his pitch.

"I believe that the American people are tired of government that does not adhere to them. It is time for accountable, reliable government. A limited government that is mainstream and is able to govern effectively as we go into the 21st century." -- Colin Powell; speaking in NH.

"The bridge to the 21st century is not about going in reverse. General Powell believes in returning to the policies of the past, and that is not what will move America forward. Not this time! Not again!"

Clinton's campaign focused on optimistic, forward vision, while Powell seemed to evoke economic populism. Many compared him to Eisenhower, and while he touted smaller government and lower taxes, a direct play from the Reaganomics, he was viewed as a new type of Republican. The social issues were irrelevant in the discourse. He was a not a staunch conservative, or a moderate liberal, and that drew people to his campaign. The historic nature of his candidacy was one part, but Powell offered much more.

As the convention approached speculation began over Powell's running mate. A shortlist included: Sen. John McCain, Jack Kemp, George W. Bush, Lamar Alexander, George Pataki, Fred Thompson, Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Phil Graham, George Allen and Judd Gregg.

Ultimately Powell announced his choice of Jack Kemp to be the Vice Presidential candidate. The pick was praised, and a seen as a way of uniting the Republican Party.

()
The Vice Presidential Candidate: Jack Kemp

Projected Map:
(
)
Clinton/Gore: 198
Powell/Kemp: 180
Tossup: 160

There did arise some electoral controversy over Powell's pick of Kemp. Both were from the state of New York, but to correct it, before the announcement was made, Kemp switched his registration to Maryland, preventing any conflict. Some Democrats tried to make an issue out of the idea, but Clinton ignored it. "Let's have a real debate on issues, not on petty politics."

Election 1996:
Clinton/Gore: 46%
Powell/Kemp: 45%
Perot/Choate: 7%

Key Swing states:
Ohio:
Powell: 46%
Clinton: 46%
Perot: 6%

Missouri:
Clinton: 46%
Powell: 45%
Perot: 7%

Pennsylvania:
Powell: 45%
Clinton: 45%
Perot: 8%

Michigan:
Powell: 46%
Clinton: 46%
Perot: 6%

Iowa:
Clinton: 47%
Powell: 45%
Perot: 7%

Georgia:
Clinton: 46%
Powell: 45%
Perot: 7%


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: Jerseyrules on May 12, 2012, 02:55:07 PM
Kemp doesn't even get New York into lean Dem territory?

Still, keep up the good work!


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 12, 2012, 04:06:26 PM
Kemp doesn't even get New York into lean Dem territory?

Still, keep up the good work!

It's early...


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 12, 2012, 09:05:46 PM
The Republican Convention

()
Powell addresses the crowd; with him tied in the polls, he needed a perfect pitch.

()
"...I stand ready to lead our party in a new direction, for the 21st century. With an acceptance and embrace of our principles and beliefs in limited government, lower taxes and less spending, and an awareness that we too can find a way for government to work. Work, for the people, not against it. An efficient, mainstream approach. An end to the needless bureaucracies and government agencies. A return to fiscal discipline, balanced budgets and opportunities for all people!

[Applause]

...Many have said of me that if I win I will make history, and while I see what my victory would mean, it is not the reason I ran, and not the reason I am running. I am in this race as a man of faith, a man of deep resolve and a man who wants to serve his country and give back in the highest honor for all that she has given me. That is how I view service and as President that shall remain my most sacred oath.

[Applause]

Thank you so very much and God Bless each and everyone of you."

Powell's acceptance speech drew the largest audience for a convention, setting a record with 38.9 million viewers. Powell left the convention with a small lead over Clinton, but it did not last. Following the Democratic convention Clinton and Powell were dead even in the polls again...

1996 Election:
Powell/Kemp: 46%
Clinton/Gore: 46%
Perot/Choate: 6%

(
)
Powell/Kemp: 205
Clinton/Gore: 193
Toss up: 140

Key Battleground States:(Clinton v. Powell ONLY)

Georgia:
Clinton: 48%
Powell: 46%

Mississippi:
Powell: 49%
Clinton: 45%

Tennessee:
Clinton: 47%
Powell: 44%

Kentucky:
Powell: 48%
Clinton: 47%

Colorado:
Powell: 50%
Clinton: 44%

Nevada:
Powell: 50%
Clinton: 45%

New Mexico:
Powell: 47%
Clinton: 47%

Iowa:
Powell: 48%
Clinton: 47%

Wisconsin:
Powell: 48%
Clinton: 48%

New York:
Clinton: 50%
Powell: 46%


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: Jerseyrules on May 13, 2012, 03:07:25 PM
Kemp doesn't even get New York into lean Dem territory?

Still, keep up the good work!

It's early...

Ok.  Once again, keep up the good work ;)

Also, I have a message from TTL's Perot here:

GET OUT OF THE RACE PLEASE!  ;)


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 14, 2012, 09:59:25 AM
()

Ross Perot called a conference in late August to address rumors of his campaign's demise.

"Now I know people have been wondering if I am going to exit the race. Yes, this is not 1992, but that does not diminish our efforts."

Perot, who started the Reform Party, in an effort to provide a viable alternative to the Democrat and Republican Parties. During the Party's convention Perot attracted a few candidates that included Pat Buchanan and former Governor of Colorado, Dick Lamn. The convention was hostile from the start, with Lamn feeling shutout, when Perot announced his campaign for the nomination. Buchanan dropped out quickly and Perot won the nomination.

Perot's campaign was weak from the start. Unlike 1992, the enthusiasm was lacking. The energy surrounded Clinton and Powell in the contested battle for the White House. Perot never reached about single digits in the polls, and many declared his political career ended, long before 1996. Many cited the NAFTA debate with Vice President Gore on Larry King.

Perot, determined to stay in the race selected Pat Choate, an economist to be his running mate.

()

However, as the fall campaign got under way Perot's efforts were futile and in many states he was forced to run as an independent on the ballot.

Powell and Clinton largely ignored Perot and focused entirely on their respective campaigns and politics. Sadly Perot's bid for the White House came to an end in mid September, when he withdraw from the race, citing "Diversion from the issues and candidates".

()
"It has become apparent to me that the political interests, those of the power brokers are unwillingly to allow a third party the due credit and respect. We are fighting an uphill battle that cannot be won...therefore I am withdrawing from the campaign at this time. Please stay tuned for more word to come."

With Perot out of the race, the race between Clinton and Powell tightened even more! Now many Republican could breathe a sigh of relief. Perot's presence on the ballot likely hurt George H.W. Bush's reelection chance in '92, but with him gone now the path was clearer for Colin Powell.

Election 1996 Poll:
Clinton: 47%
Powell: 47%

Key Battleground States:

Michigan:
Powell: 48%
Clinton: 48%

Pennsylvania:
Powell: 48%
Clinton: 47%

New Jersey:
Clinton: 48%
Powell: 46%

Connecticut:
Clinton: 49%
Powell: 45%

Vermont:
Clinton: 50%
Perot: 46%

New Hampshire:
Powell: 49%
Clinton: 46%

Maine:
Powell: 48%
Clinton: 47%

California:
Clinton: 49%
Powell: 47%


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: CLARENCE 2015! on May 14, 2012, 11:06:28 AM
Very interesting read- NHI!


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 14, 2012, 03:35:59 PM
Average of all polls:
Powell: 48.6%
Clinton: 48.4%

The campaign headed into its final stretch, with Powell and Clinton deadlocked in the polls. The first two Presidential debates did not have much impact on the polls. Clinton and Powell largely avoided taking shots at one another, instead focusing on their visions for America. In his first debate Powell appeared rather stiff, but in the second debate he performed much better, but did not deliver a knockout to Clinton.The final one was set to be the final chance for both candidates to make a perfect pitch.

The final debate focused largely on domestic affairs, but towards the end of the debate Clinton attempted to draw a final contrast between himself and Powell.

()
"General Powell has aligned himself and his policies with the leadership in Congress and the same policies that the American people have rejected. I greatly admire him for his service to this country, but he does not represent America's future."

()
"Mr. President, I take great opposition with that charge. My vision for America is not to disband government, my vision is to make it work. To create an inclusive and open society for all Americans, of all backgrounds and beliefs. I am not running as Republican of yesterday, I represent a new era for our party and though I hate to bring this into the debate, the fact of me standing here represent a traditional break from past nominees."

Powell's line drew great applause and it was seen as a effective line against Clinton, but still the polls showed a photo finish.

"We're looking at the closest elections in almost decades...The Clinton campaign believes they can put together the needed states and get to 270, however if Clinton does win I don't think he'll get over fifty percent, and lacks the clear mandate he so desperately wants." -- George Will.

"The Republicans are likely to hold onto Congress, so President Clinton could deal with divided government again." -- DNC Spokesperson

"Powell is in the position Reagan was in 1980. A tight race, but over the final weekend the numbers shifted and Reagan won in a landslide." -- James Baker.

Final Election Poll:
Clinton: 48.5%
Powell: 48.2%

"We'll find out tomorrow." -- Pres. Clinton on the closeness of the polls.

"We're cautiously optimistic." -- Colin Powell on Election Day.

()
Clinton signals victory after voting in Arkansas where the polls have him up over 50%.

Election Night: 1996
()

()

(
)
Clinton/Gore:
Powell/Kemp:

"The polls have just closed in the states of: Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, Vermont, South Carolina and West Virginia. We cannot project a winner in any of the states at this time."

"Clinton seems to be doing well in West Virginia and Vermont, but those are the only state that are trending in his favor right now."

Kentucky:
Clinton: 49.3%%
Powell: 48.6%%

Indiana:
Powell: 50.9%
Clinton: 47.5%

South Carolina:
Powell: 49.8
Clinton: 47.5%

Virginia:
Powell: 49.4%
Clinton: 48.0%

"And at this time we can project that General Powell is the winner in the state of Indiana."

Indiana:
Powell: 51.4%
Clinton: 47.0%

(
)
Powell/Kemp: 12
Clinton/Gore: 0


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: Jerseyrules on May 14, 2012, 07:52:23 PM
Awesome!  Let's see a sea of blue from sea to shining sea (that means you, California ;))


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 15, 2012, 07:21:55 AM
"...Vermont and West Virginia remain too close to call at this time, but we can project South Carolina for General Powell at this time."

South Carolina:
50.8%
Clinton: 46.9%

"Now that's too states for Powell and two states that we expected to easily go for Clinton remain undecided. Is this telling us something?"

"I don't think so. Yes, Clinton won Vermont and West Virginia in '92, but the polls have just closed, so we don't have any real data yet. The same goes in Virginia. I know the Clinton campaign tried to make a play at the state, given they narrowly lost in '92, and they think they might be able to swing it."

"We are now joined by White House Communication's Director George Stephanopoulos, who is live from the Clinton headquarters in Little Rock, George,"

()

"Great to be here tonight."

"George, we know it's early but what is the feeling from the President's team tonight, as the results start to come, and particularly with the results so close in a number of states, including West Virginia and Vermont."

"Well, to answer the first point, the President is very confident that he will be reelected tonight. We always knew this was going to be a close race, but as you said it's early and as more states are called we predict a sizable victory, and so that answers your question regarding West Virginia and Vermont."

"George, should the President be reelected tonight, and so too is the Republican legislature can we expect gridlock for two years, or more results?"

"Certainly the latter. The President is committed to working with Republicans and Democrats, while also standing up for the values and principles that he believes in and the country does as well."

"George, we need to have you hold on for a moment, because we've just projected another state. Virginia has gone for Colin Powell."

Virginia:
Powell: 51.0%
Clinton: 46.8%

"Ah, George, you've heard the call? Does this change anything?"

"No. Sure, would we have like to have won Virginia, but our focus is on the states that will decide this election, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, California, and I'm confident those states will all goes for President Clinton and reelect him to the White House again."

"George Stephanopoulos, thank you for joining us."

"And here stands the map at this hour."

(
)
Powell/Kemp: 33
Clinton/Gore: 0

"Powell has the lead, but it is still early."

"And we can project another state, Vermont, won by Bill Clinton in '92, now goes for Colin Powell."

Vermont:
Powell: 50.6%
Clinton: 48.2%

"No one saw that state going for Powell, so clearly this is a night of surprises to be sure."

"The thought is, just from talking to many in the Powell campaign that this night has the potential to be like 1980. In where Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan were deadlocked in the polls and then over the weekend it broke a little for Reagan and by election night he won forty-four states. Now the economy is not like how it was in 1980, but there is feeling in the country about starting anew. With all the turmoil of the early Clinton years, the Republican victory in '94, people are looking for a new path, a new candidate and Powell represents that."

"If this were Bob Dole, would it be a different story tonight?"

"Yes, without a doubt. Powell was and is the candidate that the Clinton campaign fears. They saw him back before he announced as the one who had the best chance of defeating him, and looking now that fear maybe, it's still maybe, but could be coming true."

"We are still looking at the results in Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio. The polls have closed in all three states and with the exception of Georgia, Powell currently leads the President."

"Clinton won Georgia narrowly in '92, so he could take it again, but it is still early."

"Ohio is the one state everyone is watching. No Republican has won the White House without it, and so we shall see."

Ohio:
Powell: 50.3%
Clinton: 49.0%

West Virginia:
Clinton: 50.1%
Powell: 49.1%

Georgia:
Clinton: 49.4%
Powell: 49.4%

Kentucky:
Powell: 49.3%
Clinton: 49.2%

"And it appears we can now make another projection for Colin Powell. He has won the state of North Carolina."

North Carolina:
Powell: 52.4%
Clinton: 45.5%

(
)
Powell/Kemp: 50
Clinton/Gore: 0

"Powell is building a strong lead at this time, but does calling North Carolina this early change anything?"

"No. We called it because of the exit polling. We only at three percent of the vote in, but the exit polls forecast a strong win for Powell, so that is why we are projecting it now."

"The state to watch is Ohio and now it appears to be Kentucky as well, since Powell hold the narrowest of leads over the President in that state."

"The results have shifted in Georgia now. Powell leads Clinton."

7:50

"Ten minutes now before the polls close at eight, and we project that the state of Georgia has gone for Colin Powell."

Georgia:
Powell: 49.9%
Clinton: 48.7%

(
)
Powell/Kemp: 63
Clinton/Gore: 0

"Now the second Clinton state from '92 to fall back into the Republican column tonight."

"And as Colin Powell continues to build a lead in the popular vote and electoral college, all eyes fall onto the states of Ohio, West Virginia and Kentucky, which have not been projected yet, but went for President Clinton in '92."

"And it appears we have an answer to where one of those states will. We are now projecting the state of..."


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 16, 2012, 04:20:12 PM
"...Ohio. Colin Powell is the winner in the state of Ohio."

Ohio:
Powell: 50.8%
Clinton: 48.5%

"The White House has to disappointed over this one."

"Is it over, now?"

"Very difficult. Kennedy won the Presidency in 1960 without Ohio, so it's not impossible."

8:00

"We project that Colin Powell is the winner in Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Delaware and New Hampshire."

Alabama:
Powell: 53.4%
Clinton: 45.0%

Mississippi:
Powell: 54.1%
Clinton: 43.9%

Oklahoma:
Powell: 55.8%
Clinton: 43.6%

Delaware:
Powell: 51.7%
Clinton: 47.2%

New Hampshire:
Powell: 53.0%
Clinton: 45.7%

"And we project that President Clinton has won the District of Columbia."

District of Columbia:
Clinton: 89.9%
Powell: 9.1%

(
)
Powell/Kemp: 115
Clinton/Gore: 3

"Certainly quite a different map than many of us were expecting tonight."

The polls have been tight, but this suggest something very different is going on. It is possible that the polls were just wrong."

"Or like in 1980, there a late shift for Powell going into election day. The results now seem to favor that argument."

"We cannot project winners in the states of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Illinois, Florida, Tennessee, Missouri, Maine, Massachusetts and Connecticut. The polls were set to close at in New Jersey but due to massive turnout the polls will remain open until eight thirty."

"Well, the Clinton campaign can breathe a sigh of relief. The state of Massachusetts will go for President Clinton."

Massachusetts:
Clinton: 50.6%
Powell: 48.3%

(
)
Powell/Kemp: 115
Clinton/Gore: 15


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: Jerseyrules on May 16, 2012, 09:42:31 PM
Keep it coming!


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 18, 2012, 09:59:57 PM
"...Powell continues to rack up states tonight, and we project he has won the state of Maine."

Maine:
Powell: 52.7%
Clinton: 45.1%

Powell/Kemp: 119
Clinton/Gore: 15

"So how does President Clinton makeup the math here, or is it too late?"

"It's not impossible, but Clinton is going to have start moving the numbers in certain states that are favoring Powell."

"Clinton still leads in Missouri, but trails in Missouri and Illinois, too states that Clinton carried in '92."

Tennessee:
Clinton: 49.4%
Powell: 49.2%

Missouri:
Powell: 50.9%
Clinton: 47.4%

Illinois:
Powell: 51.0%
Clinton: 46.4%

"We are now project that General Powell has won the state of Maryland."

Maryland:
Powell: 50.8%
Clinton: 47.9%

(
)
Powell/Kemp: 129
Clinton/Gore: 15

"Another Clinton state from '92 goes for Powell. Certainly more difficulty for the President as he looks to cobble together the needed delegates to win."

8:30

"..and President Clinton has won his home state of Arkansas."

Arkansas:
Clinton: 54.0%
Powell: 44.7%

"The state was never in question and he has won it easily tonight."

"But we can project that Colin Powell in the winner in the state of Kentucky."

Kentucky:
Powell: 49.8%
Clinton: 49.3%

"That is a tough loss to swallow for the Clinton campaign. They were expected to carry that state, but it has gone for Powell."

"And it seems that Mr. Powell is leading strongly in the state of Florida at this time, but we are not ready to project for him yet."

"Well, President Clinton can believe a sign of relief. The state of West Virginia has gone for the President."

West Virginia:
Clinton: 49.9%
Powell: 48.9%

(
)
Powell/Kemp: 137
Clinton/Gore: 26

"At this time Clinton and Powell are tied in Tennessee, surely a twist of events in the state that Clinton won in 1992."

"Of the states still undecided, Powell leads in Connecticut, Illinois, and Pennsylvania."

"That is correct and we can now project that General Powell has won the state of New Jersey. New Jersey goes for Powell."

New Jersey:
Powell: 51.2%
Clinton: 46.7%

"Before we offer an analysis we have another projection to make: Pennsylvania has gone for Powell. Powell wins the Keystone State!"

Pennsylvania:
Powell: 50.9%
Clinton: 48.0%

(
)
Powell/Kemp: 175
Clinton/Gore: 26

"I'll be the first to officially say it. I know it's early, states are still out, but this election is over."


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 20, 2012, 08:43:29 AM
"Rhode Island, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New York are too close to call. Though President Clinton holds a narrow lead in New York."

"We project that Powell is the winner in Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming."

New York:
Clinton: 50.0%
Clinton: 49.0%

"And we can now project that Powell has won the state of Connecticut and Missouri has gone for Mr. Powell tonight."

(
)
Powell/Kemp: 211
Clinton/Gore: 26

Minnesota:
Powell: 49.8%
Clinton: 49.0%

Rhode Island:
Clinton: 49.8%
Powell: 49.1%

Michigan:
Powell: 50.1%
Clinton: 48.9%

Wisconsin:
Powell: 50.2%
Clinton: 49.0%

"Looking at the map this is a tidal wave that cannot be stopped."

"It is only a matter of time before."

"And we can project that Colin Powell has won the state of Florida."

Florida:
Powell: 52.8%
Clinton: 46.0%

"And we can now project that Powell is the winner in Michigan..."

Michigan:
Powell: 50.3%
Clinton: 48.6%

(
)
Powell/Kemp: 254
Clinton/Gore: 26


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: Jerseyrules on May 21, 2012, 05:56:49 PM
Almost...there....


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 21, 2012, 06:31:46 PM
"We're back and we are speaking live to Clinton strategist James Carville who is coming to us from the victory party in Louisiana; James you are a close advisor to President Clinton, what do you gage is the feeling tonight from Little Rock?"

()

"Look I can try and B.S. you guy, but I won't do that. The mood is somber, the mood is somber here. This is not a great night for the Democratic Party. Republicans will retain control of Congress and look poised to win the White House, and it comes down to a simple fact: We didn't run a great campaign."

"We are already hearing talk about this being a realigning election, your thoughts?"

"I think it has the potential to be one. General Powell expanded the electorate and we've seen voter turnout up twice that of what it was in '92, so something is working tonight."

"Thank you James Carville."

"And we have a major projection to make, breaking news really. We are now calling the state of Illinois for Colin Powell. We can report history, General Colin Powell will be the 43rd President of the United States."

Powell Elected President!

Illinois:
Powell: 52.8%
Clinton: 46.0%

(
)
Powell/Kemp: 276
Clinton/Gore: 26

()
Time, post-election.

()
The Clinton, following the concession.

()
President-Elect Powell on Election Night. "Tonight we begin anew!"

Final Results:
(
)
Powell/Kemp: 474 (54.0%)
Clinton/Gore: 64 (44.6%)

Epilogue forthcoming...


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on May 21, 2012, 07:38:48 PM
This doesn't seem realistic. A relatively popular incumbent winning only 5 states and DC?


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 21, 2012, 09:57:18 PM
*A revised map.

Close States:

New York:
Powell: 49.91%
Clinton: 49.76%

Tennessee:
Clinton: 49.51%
Powell: 49.44%

Minnesota:
Clinton: 49.60%
Powell: 49.59%

Louisiana:
Clinton: 49.88%
Powell: 49.69%

California:
Powell: 50.00%
Clinton: 49.40%

Hawaii:
Clinton: 50.77%
Powell: 49.30%

Oregon:
Powell: 49.66%
Clinton: 49.34%

Washington:
Powell: 49.49%
Clinton: 49.47%

Iowa:
Powell: 50.12%
Clinton: 48.77%

New Mexico:
Powell: 50.75%
Clinton: 48.25%


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: Jerseyrules on May 21, 2012, 10:42:23 PM
Awesome.  And IOTL, a Powell vs. Clinton poll conducted on election night 96 showed Powell would stomp slick willy 50-37, so I find the results realistic


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: LiberalJunkie on May 22, 2012, 04:48:55 PM
More Realistic
(
)


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: adrac on May 22, 2012, 05:07:23 PM
While I understand its purpose for the sake of the timeline, I do think that, no matter how awesome Powell's campaign might have been, this is a huge margin for a reasonably popular incumbent to lose by. I like liberaljunkie's map.


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: mondale84 on May 22, 2012, 05:27:33 PM
Trollolol on this timeline


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: Jerseyrules on May 22, 2012, 05:53:55 PM
While I understand its purpose for the sake of the timeline, I do think that, no matter how awesome Powell's campaign might have been, this is a huge margin for a reasonably popular incumbent to lose by. I like liberaljunkie's map.

That may be the case, but it's not polite to post maps, etc. on someone else's TL.  I didn't know this at first, but it's just forum etiquette in case you guys didn't know


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: adrac on May 23, 2012, 01:47:45 PM
While I understand its purpose for the sake of the timeline, I do think that, no matter how awesome Powell's campaign might have been, this is a huge margin for a reasonably popular incumbent to lose by. I like liberaljunkie's map.

That may be the case, but it's not polite to post maps, etc. on someone else's TL.  I didn't know this at first, but it's just forum etiquette in case you guys didn't know

That makes a lot of sense. It's good for unspoken etiquette like that to exist.
Our bad then.


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 26, 2012, 08:20:22 AM
While I understand its purpose for the sake of the timeline, I do think that, no matter how awesome Powell's campaign might have been, this is a huge margin for a reasonably popular incumbent to lose by. I like liberaljunkie's map.

That may be the case, but it's not polite to post maps, etc. on someone else's TL.  I didn't know this at first, but it's just forum etiquette in case you guys didn't know

That makes a lot of sense. It's good for unspoken etiquette like that to exist.
Our bad then.

No worries.


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: NHI on May 26, 2012, 09:06:12 AM
Epilogue:

President Powell's first term was largely a success. Along with a balanced budget and surplus that was reached by his reelection, Powell also oversaw the restructure of the entitlement programs, as well as a series of a tax cuts to help spur the economy. Powell also scored a major foreign policy victory, in late 1998 he authorized a CIA mission that killed Osama Bin Laden; a death that crippled the terrorist organization; Al Qaeda. With the economy booming and relative stability in the world Powell could campaign on his record in 2004 and easily defeated Senator Joe Biden in the biggest landslide in history.

2000
(
)
Powell/Kemp: 532 (61.7%)
Joe Biden/Jeanne Shaheen: 6 (36.9%)

Powell's second term got off to a great start. With continuing economic growth Republicans, and even Democrats touted it was Morning in America, and it's here to stay. The economic prosperity continued throughout Powell's second term. Domestically things stayed stable, on the international stage times were changing. Middle Eastern nations such as Iraq and Egypt went through a series of revolutions that drove out of power there respective leaders; Saddam Hussein and Hosni Mubarak.
Powell supported the leaderships changes that spread through the region and spoke of it, "The fruits of Democracy are too good to resist."

Powell's approval ratings remained relatively high which helped 2004 Republican nominee John McCain score a victory over his Democratic challenger and former Vice President Al Gore. Powell left office with a booming economy and approval rating of 61%. By all accounts he is viewed as one of the greatest Presidents in American history.

2004
(
)
John McCain/Jeb Bush: 439 (57.3%)
Al Gore/John Kerry: 99 (40.9%)

Pres. McCain largely continued the same policies of Powell and was a successful president in his own right. However the economy experienced a small downturn in 2007-2008, and while McCain put up a good fight, ultimately he was defeated by Arkansas governor and former wife of Pres. Bill Clinton, Hillary Rodham.

(
)
Hillary Rodham/Brian Schweitzer: 284 (50.1%)
John McCain/Jeb Bush: 254 (48.4%)

Rodham's victory was historic, not only was she the first woman ever elected President, but she divorced her husband in in 1998, and became the first non-married president since James Buchanan. Rodham's Presidency saw the end of the twelve year Republican rule that many thought with never end. Her victory also brought the Democrats back into the majority in Congress. America took took a step to the left beginning with her presidency, but when the Democrats lost their majorities in '10, Rodham, much like her husband recanted and moved back to the center and governed as a middle of the road Democrats; much to the ire of the liberal base of her party.

Nevertheless Rodham saw major accomplishments that included a reform to the nation's health care system, a new welfare reform, and skirmish in Iran that drove Mahmoud Ahmadinejad out of power. Rodham, a polarizing figure in her first two years was now beloved by the American people.

Presidents of the United States: 1997-present
Colin Powell: 1997-2005
John McCain: 2005-2009
Hillary Rodham: 2009-

Look for a future timeline about the political career of Hillary Rodham...


Title: Re: A Kinder, Gentler Party
Post by: Jerseyrules on May 27, 2012, 04:38:01 PM
Looking forward to a continuation of this TL!