Talk Elections

I haven't seen it anywhere else yet, so here it is:
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Interesting.

What's up with Watauga ?

Ah, OK, it seems I found the main reason:

http://www.appstate.edu

20.000 students. County has 50.000 people.

IIRC, it only passed by a few hundred votes in Guilford and New Hanover. It would have been nice to have those counties in the "Against" column...

Also, Orange should be a darker red than Durham on the map.

Durham voted 69.8% Against and Orange was 78.9% Against.

These results are actually amazing and impressive if you look at them at the precinct level. White precincts that vote by McCain by 20%+ margins voted against NC Amendment 1 at solid levels. Gay marriage is definitely a winning issue for Obama among swing-ish southern urban whites.

you're saying the very pro-McCain urban areas voted against?

Yeah and by pretty stunning margins in some cases. There are fairly moderate precincts that voted 70 or 80+% against and with high levels of turnout. The map looks pretty presidential but its deceptive because white voters had huge Obama > Against swings. Something is happening here and it's big.

Yeah, just look at my signature. Southern Charlotte is solidly Republican, but voted pretty consistently against the amendment.

Dare County was the most surprising. It's in the Outer Banks so tourism could be a factor.

Proud to live in the Triangle--only 8 counties voted against, 4 of which were in the Triangle.

Miles, if you could make more precinct maps which map both variables together (i.e. one color = Obama, pro-gay, another color = Obama, anti-gay, etc.) that would be great.

8,000 posts BTW

Yep. It failed by 87 votes there. (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/Dare/36632/80817/en/md.html?cid=0132)


Ok, I can get on that.

I'll start with Mecklenburg county, since I already had the results mapped out:

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Okay either there is income, education, racial links to these results. Or the Obama supporters moved to the Southern part of the county in the past 4 years. The latter is very unlikely though, so I assume the former.

Here's Wake and Chatham counties together:

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How in the WORLD did it lose Chatham - but not Guilford or Forsyth?

For Chatham, I'd say its because of its proximity to Chapel Hill; there was a huge GOTV the vote effort there.

Miles--great maps! 

The Wake county map aren't really as interesting as the Charlotte map, but the results in those McCain/Anti-Amendment 1 maps is really interesting.  If GOP politicians keep pushing anti-gay issues, could those voters be lost to Obama or to a local pro-equality politician? 

I am really curious how the vote breaks down by CD.  How did Sue Myrick's district vote?

I'm working on an Amendment 1 map of CD4 (because I'm curious as to how poorly the amendment did there) and I'll do CD9 next. The most pro-Amendment 1 parts of the old district (Gaston and Union oc**nties) were largely excised, so maybe the new CD9 would have voted against it.

Its funny that my state Senator, Bob Rucho, is one of the most partisan Republicans in the Senate, but almost all the precincts in his district (in south Charlotte) voted against the amendment.

CD4 was a mirror image of the state, voting 61/39 Against.

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...This is a district?

Wow.

Also, good job- I do enjoy these maps very much.  What program are you using to make these?

Great work!  I'd love to see NC-12 too, if you have time.  The result in this D+16, 45% black district will be fascinating, I'm sure.

Here's CD9. Obviously, the Republicans in Iredell and Union counties weren't nearly as willing to cross over on Amendment 1 as those in Mecklenburg.

Amendment 1 failed in the Mecklenburg part by about 10,000 votes; by comparison, McCain won those precincts by 630 votes.

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Scott, I'm getting the district/county outline shapes from DRA. To actually edit them, I'm using a combination of SnagIt Editor and Paint.NET.

Joe, I can do CD12 next! :)

Guilford and Forsyth counties:

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What stuck out at me here was High Point. The Amendment 1 opponents must have really had a weak effort there; 15 precincts there voted for Obama but 12 crossed over to support Amendment 1.

Thanks for making these map, Miles -- they're great.

High Point does make a lot of sense, demographically.  Quite a few blacks, and also a lot of whites working jobs in light industry.  Seems like prime territory for a pretty nasty swing.

Amendment 1 failed in CD12 by about 1180 votes.

For reference, it was packed even more tightly during redistricting so that its 49.6% black VAP and 78% Obama. 

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It doesn't look like black voters were that far from the state results. Actually it's likely they voted more against than the state.

Exactly. Chatham has a rural feel, but there are a good number of people who are still part of the Chapel Hill community, who are looking for a cheaper or bigger place.

Also, Guilford only missed by .06%.

Comparing Against % minus Obama % of 2 party vote:

Best overperformance:

Orange   6.30%
Dare   5.27%
Carteret   1.68%
New Hanover   0.48%
Wake   -0.54%

Dare, Carteret, and New Hanover are all right on the coast.

Worst underperformance:

Robeson   -43.18%
Hertford   -40.98%
Bertie   -38.45%
Edgecombe   -37.66%
Vance   -36.41%

Robeson is 38.4% Native American and 24.3% Black. Hertford, Bertie, and Edgecombe are majority black. Vance is plurality black.

Worst underperformance among majority white counties:

Bladen   -34.31%
Columbus   -31.08%
Richmond   -28.15%
Sampson   -27.85%
Tyrrell   -27.53%

What do you mean by "worst underperformance"?

Worst % for the anti-amendment (pro-gay) side compared to (minus) Obama% of the 2-party vote in 2008, by county.

The urban/rural split is very large--only 11 (out of 100) counties voted more pro-gay than the state average--the 8 counties where it didn't pass, and Guilford (Greensboro), New Hanover (Wilmington), and Forsyth (Winston-Salem).

Combination of factors likely, one key one being transplants.  South Charlotte has a TON of New Yorker's and other transplants (my parents are just over the border in the tip of Lancaster).

Its pretty much the same thing in portions of Wake.  Cary is a prime example.  Its not quite as Republican as South Charlotte (more of a swing area), and was very strongly against the Amendment,

Does anyone else have requests for more NC precinct-level maps of Amendment 1, or any other primary election?

Thank you for doing NC-12!  :)

How about NC-1 and NC-3?

Ok, sure. I'll have those up in the next few days. :)

Ugghhh...I'm mapping out CD1 right now. Senator Bob Rucho, who drew the map, needs to be thrown out of office just for the sheer number of precincts he split unnecessarily in eastern NC.

Miles, would you assume that only NC-4 and NC-12 voted against? Results by 2000s CD lines would be much more interesting (since they actually reflect communities of interest)--likely NC-4, NC-12, and NC-13 would be against along with perhaps NC-2 or NC-8.

I was actuallyy thinking about that.

Even though the new CD4 is 72% Obama, I think Amendment 1 would have failed by a wider margin in the old CD4 (63% Obama).

After I finish the new CD1 and 3, I'll do the old 13th and 4th.

Keep the maps coming, Miles. Though the precinct data outside urban areas is bleak--only 40 (of 100) counties even have at least one precinct against the amendment.

And now for CD1. This was 70.5% Obama, 74% Perdue and is 52% black VAP. Overall, the Amendment 1 results were pretty similar to the state as a whole.
If you exclude Durham, it passed in the rural areas with 67%.

Also, I couldn't account for the split precincts, so the numbers will be slightly off in some counties.

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Moving on, Amendment 1 passed in CD3 by 65/35. The only pockets of opposition were in Wilmington, Dare County and a handful of precincts in Greenville.

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Whoever drew that...thing needs to be dragged into the street and shot.

There aren't many living members of the 89th Congress to shoot.

Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn.

Yes, its a VRA district, but it didn't have to be that ugly.

Some other masterworks of unnecessary racial packing from the NCGOP are this (http://ncga.state.nc.us/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Senate/Rucho_Senate_2/Maps/DistSimple/distSimple_21.pdf) and this. (http://ncga.state.nc.us/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/House/Lewis-Dollar-Dockham_4/Maps/DistSimple/distSimple_48.pdf)

The old 4th and 13th are in the works.

I had smaller shape-files on hand for the old districts, so I'm just using those.

Here's the old 13th. It was very close. I'd say Amendment One's margin in Rockingham county (where it got almost 76%) was the reason that it passed here.

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Comparing the 2012 presidential vote with the anti-gay amendment (more telling than 2008), the counties where the anti-amendment vote outdid Obama's % of 2-party vote are:

Dare   8.67%
Orange   7.49%
Carteret   4.80%
Watauga   2.42%
New Hanover   2.09%
Chatham   1.44%
Moore   1.17%
Wake   0.94%

Orange, Chatham, and Wake are in the Triangle; Dare, Carteret, and New Hanover are on the coast; Watauga is App. State Univ.; Moore is surprising since it is a retiree and golfing area.

The counties where the anti-amendment did the "worst" were:   

Robeson   -45.03%
Hertford   -42.40%
Bertie   -39.52%
Edgecombe   -38.51%
Vance   -37.23%

Robeson is 38.4% Native American and 24.3% Black. Hertford, Bertie, and Edgecombe are majority black. Vance is plurality black.

For white maj. counties, the "worst" are:
   
Bladen   -34.26%
Columbus   -31.12%
Richmond   -28.88%
Sampson   -26.61%
Gates   -25.66%

*Bump*
Is there a precinct map of the whole state for amendment one?

Rural religious people, black and white, are the people that voted most against this. I've always known that Chapel Hill is a very left wing hot bed but they are really politically active there! Overall though no surprise, North Carolina is still pretty cultural conservative, even if its close on a national level now. Very interesting stuff and thanks Miles for putting all the work into this (one year ago).

Thanks!

Also, the quote link on top if the pic links to my map thread, where I have the results broken down by CD (both new and old lines).

Such a beautiful map.

Thanks; the result, obviously, was awful, but it made for a pretty map.