Talk Elections

Unless Romney defeats Obama by 4+ I don't see Nelson losing to Connie Sh... I mean, Mack.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senate-campaign-in-florida-off-to-a-sluggish-start/2012/05/12/gIQA5lg7KU_story.html

Does Nelson-D defeat Mack-R by a wider margin that he defeated Katherine Harris-R in 2006.

Almost impossible. Katherine Harris pretty much hit the floor for Republicans in Florida. She did everything wrong, was endorsed by nobody, was absolutely reviled by Democrats and most independents, couldn't even win 50% in a primary against nobodies, and most importantly was facing a Democratic incumbent in 2006. Connie Mack will have Republican support and money, is already polling around where she lost at with the Republicans still divided, is not really disliked and even still gets some favorability from his family name, and Bill Nelson has lost a bit of the shine he had before. I don't really think Mack will win but I don't doubt he'll get into the 40's, probably around the 45 area assuming the Democrats win the presidency.

2000 is probably a better baseline to look at then 2006 for Nelson.

Somewhat off-topic, but can someone explain to me why Collier County (Naples) is so Republican?  Even Harris won the county.

Lots of retired rich olds who aren't Jewish, few minorities, and not as many tourism/service industry employees. A lot like The Villages or Charlotte County.

Its about 26% Hispanic actually.

Coasting?  hardly.  He's polling at 45%   That's awful for a guy who got 62% last time

Nelson needs to be prepared for LeMieux to win the primary...it could very well happen and would be more of a challenge

LeMieux is radioactive because of his Crist/Greer ties... plus Mack has national support.

This, but he could probably get past that if he didn't have Pawlenty levels of charisma. Oof, I heard him speak recently and I seriously regretted it.

I don't think there are many Cubans in that area, it's not very connected to the Miami despite geography due to all the swampland between it. The Hispanics are probably mostly sugar cane farm workers or picking oranges. However true to form this doesn't equal high turnout. Check out this precinct:

Population: 23684
VAP: 15687
73.6% Hispanic VAP (11539 Hispanics)

Vote:
Obama 1620
McCain 803

Granted the precinct is also about 20% black and less than 5% white and has less white VAP than McCain votes, so a lot of those Hispanics obviously were voting McCain, so there probably are some Cubans with the Obama vote being mostly black. However it's clear that most of the Hispanics aren't voting.

Yeah there aren't, I checked data from 2000 right after I posted and it was mostly mexicans with cubans in second which is why I edited my post about 5mins after posting it :P.

As noted, it's packed with folks whose Social Security is subject to taxation. And they are from the Midwest, and not the Northeast. They're WASP, not Jewish. It's low rise, not high rise.