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Title: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: ajb on May 16, 2012, 05:29:03 PM Obama 46
Romney 39 Was 46-46 three weeks ago. Just in case any narrative about the race was beginning to gel for you... http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/05/16/fox-news-poll-obama-pulls-ahead-romney-as-presidential-race-heats-up/ Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: Oakvale on May 16, 2012, 05:38:59 PM Main thing about this poll that jumps out you is the Partisan ID. The D/R/I is 42/34/20%. Like most pollsters out there, Fox is drastically overpolling Democrats. 2008 saw 39/32/29% turnout among Dems. So to believe Fox's poll, you'd have to believe that '12 Democratic turnout will be greater than '08. Almost no one believes that. For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26% Umengus? Is that you? e: Seriously, though, this seems a bit high. I'd say Obama's up 3-4 points nationally at present. Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on May 16, 2012, 05:42:39 PM For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26% This is not 2004. Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: ajb on May 16, 2012, 05:45:46 PM For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26% This is not 2004. It's worth remembering that 2004 was the best presidential election of the last 24 years for the Republicans. So while Democrats may be a little oversampled here, it would be pretty silly to re-weight the sample so that Ds and Rs were at parity. Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: AmericanNation on May 16, 2012, 05:54:23 PM For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26% This is not 2004. It's worth remembering that 2004 was the best presidential election of the last 24 years for the Republicans. So while Democrats may be a little oversampled here, it would be pretty silly to re-weight the sample so that Ds and Rs were at parity. If I had to say, I'd say: 1) Republicans are more motivated than 2004 2) Romney is better with independents/moderates than Bush 3) Romney is a better candidate outside of the Bush states than Bush was. Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: BaldEagle1991 on May 16, 2012, 05:56:56 PM For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26% This is not 2004. It's worth remembering that 2004 was the best presidential election of the last 24 years for the Republicans. So while Democrats may be a little oversampled here, it would be pretty silly to re-weight the sample so that Ds and Rs were at parity. If I had to say, I'd say: 1) Republicans are more motivated than 2004 2) Romney is better with independents/moderates than Bush 3) Romney is a better candidate outside of the Bush states than Bush was. #3 is still false. Romney is no better in the blue states (perhaps except Massachusetts and Michigan) than Bush was. Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on May 16, 2012, 05:58:29 PM And to be fair, this isn't 2008 :) I know. It's even BETTER than 2008! Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: Grumpier Than Thou on May 16, 2012, 06:00:46 PM Surprised to see Obama up by this much in a FOX poll.
Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: AmericanNation on May 16, 2012, 07:03:06 PM For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26% This is not 2004. It's worth remembering that 2004 was the best presidential election of the last 24 years for the Republicans. So while Democrats may be a little oversampled here, it would be pretty silly to re-weight the sample so that Ds and Rs were at parity. If I had to say, I'd say: 1) Republicans are more motivated than 2004 2) Romney is better with independents/moderates than Bush 3) Romney is a better candidate outside of the Bush states than Bush was. #3 is still false. Romney is no better in the blue states (perhaps except Massachusetts and Michigan) than Bush was. You mean it's false now? Yea, the challenger of an incumbent typically has to do some work over more than a month long time frame. Romney is probably better than Bush (given that a campaign goes on more than a month) in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: AmericanNation on May 16, 2012, 07:24:44 PM back to the topic,
This poll is of Registered Voters... So, of the sample that will actually vote the margin is probably 1 to 3 points. Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: old timey villain on May 16, 2012, 09:22:22 PM For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26% This is not 2004. It's worth remembering that 2004 was the best presidential election of the last 24 years for the Republicans. So while Democrats may be a little oversampled here, it would be pretty silly to re-weight the sample so that Ds and Rs were at parity. If I had to say, I'd say: 1) Republicans are more motivated than 2004 2) Romney is better with independents/moderates than Bush 3) Romney is a better candidate outside of the Bush states than Bush was. #3 is still false. Romney is no better in the blue states (perhaps except Massachusetts and Michigan) than Bush was. You mean it's false now? Yea, the challenger of an incumbent typically has to do some work over more than a month long time frame. Romney is probably better than Bush (given that a campaign goes on more than a month) in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Bush's incumbency status in 2004 was probably equal to Romney's NE/Midwest roots as a challenger, so it's a wash Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: Miles on May 16, 2012, 09:41:44 PM Dominating.
Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on May 16, 2012, 09:46:27 PM The sampling does favor Democrats a bit much, but it might not be too far off considering that Mitt isn't the most exciting nominee. :P
Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: tmthforu94 on May 16, 2012, 09:49:47 PM So FOX is only legit when Obama is leading. If Romney leads, its a Republican hack.
Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on May 16, 2012, 09:51:18 PM The sampling does favor Democrats a bit much, but it might not be too far off considering that Mitt isn't the most exciting nominee. :P The problem with Mitt isn't that he's boring. It's that he's greedy, spoiled, incompetent, extreme, and a nut. Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: tmthforu94 on May 16, 2012, 10:24:13 PM The sampling does favor Democrats a bit much, but it might not be too far off considering that Mitt isn't the most exciting nominee. :P The problem with Mitt isn't that he's boring. It's that he's greedy, spoiled, incompetent, extreme, and a nut. Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: NVGonzalez on May 16, 2012, 10:25:29 PM Troll polls. Troll polls everywhere
Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: Umengus on May 17, 2012, 04:16:59 AM Main thing about this poll that jumps out you is the Partisan ID. The D/R/I is 42/34/20%. Like most pollsters out there, Fox is drastically overpolling Democrats. 2008 saw 39/32/29% turnout among Dems. So to believe Fox's poll, you'd have to believe that '12 Democratic turnout will be greater than '08. Almost no one believes that. For a reference point, '04 turnout was 37/37/26% Umengus? Is that you? e: Seriously, though, this seems a bit high. I'd say Obama's up 3-4 points nationally at present. lol no, it's not me. just another decent guy... ;) I'm on this forum for 2003 and I have understood that Party id of the samples is the key: cfr last polls: foxnews, ppp,... "junk" polls because party id completely crazy IMO. "it's the party id, stupid !" Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: Eraserhead on May 17, 2012, 05:15:04 AM back to the topic, This poll is of Registered Voters... So, of the sample that will actually vote the margin is probably 1 to 3 points. It doesn't work like that. Title: Re: FOX National: Obama leads by 7 Post by: AmericanNation on May 17, 2012, 12:57:43 PM back to the topic, This poll is of Registered Voters... So, of the sample that will actually vote the margin is probably 1 to 3 points. It doesn't work like that. Sometimes it does work something like that. How do you think it works? |