Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: golden on May 18, 2012, 08:32:19 AM



Title: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: golden on May 18, 2012, 08:32:19 AM
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Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on May 18, 2012, 08:40:36 AM
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Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: Adam Griffin on May 18, 2012, 05:08:05 PM
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Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: adrac on May 18, 2012, 05:21:39 PM
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Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 18, 2012, 05:49:14 PM
Tried to come up with something different than the others, but still realistic:

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Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: "'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted" on May 18, 2012, 07:03:15 PM
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In the North, white voters flee Obama in some recent Democratic strongholds, while the Hispanic vote helps him hold on out West.


Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: 5280 on May 19, 2012, 12:24:14 AM
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Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: WhyteRain on May 19, 2012, 08:40:08 AM

This is the least realistic one so far.

Obama wins Florida but not Michigan or Wisconsin, states that haven't voted GOP in decades?

If Obama wins Florida, he's on his way to 400 EC votes.


Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on May 19, 2012, 02:25:47 PM
I think it's pretty clear that Romney has to win Florida if he wants to be the president. Unless he can make sweeping inroads in the rust belt, which I think is unlikely.


Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: Donerail on May 19, 2012, 02:34:17 PM
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Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on May 19, 2012, 03:33:21 PM
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Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: AmericanNation on May 19, 2012, 08:13:25 PM
I'm a little shocked this was left out

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Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: California8429 on May 20, 2012, 01:05:09 AM
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Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: zorkpolitics on May 20, 2012, 07:44:42 AM
A surprising number of plausible ways to reach a Tie!
Since at Tie goes to the House to be resolved, another set of equivalent maps is any map with a 270-268 win, but in which one faithless elector throws it to the House.  I'm sure there are many such maps as well.


Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on May 20, 2012, 09:45:11 AM
Has no one thought of this one?

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Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: The_Texas_Libertarian on May 21, 2012, 06:25:02 AM

Looks like the most realistic of the group.


Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on May 21, 2012, 02:25:34 PM
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Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: golden on May 21, 2012, 05:07:01 PM
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Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: muon2 on May 21, 2012, 05:25:35 PM
I put one in my sig on May 13.

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Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on May 21, 2012, 06:53:53 PM

Hold it! Sorry, I think 20RP12 did that earlier.


Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on May 21, 2012, 08:41:15 PM

It's the only one I see as being a plausible 269 tie... but I doubt Obama is going to lose IA.


Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on May 22, 2012, 06:02:21 AM

It's the only one I see as being a plausible 269 tie... but I doubt Obama is going to lose IA.
Yes, NM and OH seem to be the most Obama-leaning of the CO-NM-NV-IA states (the Hispanics and Iowa, as I call them) and the OH-FL-NC-VA states (I like to call them the Big Four).

But Obama isn't going to lose CO, NV, or IA unless Romney reeeeeeeeeeeeeeally makes an effort.


Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: billbillerson on May 22, 2012, 08:09:54 AM


This


Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: EmersonAdams on May 22, 2012, 08:50:55 AM
I can't decide if Virginia or Ohio is more likely to go Romney. Most the maps here hinge on one or the other going Romney... I think it's probably more likely that Ohio goes for Obama in this election, but as the DC suburbs expand I think Virginia is going to trend more and more democratic.


Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: golden on May 22, 2012, 09:11:48 AM
I can't decide if Virginia or Ohio is more likely to go Romney. Most the maps here hinge on one or the other going Romney...

Virginia has clearly become a steadily blue swing state, like Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Ohio is actually red state that at times votes blue by accident.


Title: Re: Make up a REALISTIC 269-269 map of Obama vs. Romney
Post by: muon2 on May 26, 2012, 10:29:19 PM
I can't decide if Virginia or Ohio is more likely to go Romney. Most the maps here hinge on one or the other going Romney... I think it's probably more likely that Ohio goes for Obama in this election, but as the DC suburbs expand I think Virginia is going to trend more and more democratic.

I think VA is more likely to stay D this time. Obama was 1.4% better in VA than OH in 08. The impact of Fed workers in NOVA does not have an equivalent in OH to hold to D. On a national swing of 2-2.5% R I see VA holding D but OH just moving to R.