Talk Elections

Since I am apparently good at these kinds of things, and since there seems to be at least passing and superficial interest in this, I decided to waste my free time (and perhaps my long weekend) by putting together a quick profile of every constituency ahead of the legislative elections.
 
I don’t know every other thing about every other politician and local official from Trifouillis-les-Oies, but I do know a superficial amount of stuff about most places and more stuff than a sane person needs to know about other places. And I also think that I know quite a bit about voting patterns in general, at least I probably know more about that than the overpaid journalists. However, these aren’t constituency profiles. If you’re really curious about why a certain constituency votes a certain way, PM me, but I feel like it is better to keep these things short and focused on the actual elections.
 
Basically, the point is to provide a brief overview of the candidates (to be updated as the official list comes out) and my impressions about the race. I’ll go in my traditional geographic order of things, but I can certainly detail certain departments whenever somebody asks.
 
A key of sorts:
* - indicates a constituency which has been modified by the redistricting
^ - retiring incumbent
+ - new seat
In brackets, the name/major city/region of the constituency followed by the incumbent’s party
 
Ratings on the 100% bullsh**t, 0% scientific and rarely accurate (Antonio, how’d I do on my stupid senatorial predictions last year again? Probably awfully) Hashpipe Super-Duper Prediction model:
 
These overall ratings are based on a general left/centre/right-majority/FN axis, rather than partisan labels.
 
-Safe: The chances of another political family winning the seat are nil or extremely low.
-Favoured: The chances of another political family winning the seat are not nil but fairly unlikely
-Lean: Not quite a perfect tossup, one political family has a little edge over another though it is not unfathomable to see the other side winning.
-Tosssup with edge: A tossup race, meaning that two or more political families have a serious chance at winning. However, one family has a marginally better chance of winning in the end and/or has momentum and local dynamics favouring it.
-Pure tossup: The race is too close to call between all sides involved, and there is not even a teeny tiny marginal edge to one family.
 
Finistère
2007: 5 PS, 3 UMP

1st (Quimper, PS): The PS’s Jean-Jacques Urvoas is running for a second term. He is a fairly well-known and popular incumbent in a constituency which actually elected a right-winger in 1997, but which is a solidly left-wing seat now. Hollande took 59% of the vote, and Quimper gave Hollande a higher percentage of the vote than even Brest. The only interesting thing here might come for EELV, which won 10% in 2007 and is fairly well organized in Quimper at a local level. The UMP candidate is a local councillor in Quimper. Next.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Brest-ville, PS)*: An extremely solid PS seat based around the eternal bastion of Finistèrien socialism, Brest, gains a very left-wing canton (Bellevue) of Brest from the 3rd. PS incumbent Patricia Adam is running again, and she will win handily. The UMP, which in 2008 lost its last remaining electoral base (Brest-centre) has conceded the race, by supporting some PCD candidate, which is not to the likings of a longtime leader of the local right who is also running. There is a chance that the PS could win by the first round, but it will probably be settled by a landslide in the runoff. Adam won 55% in 2007, Hollande won 62.6%.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Brest-rural, UMP)*: This contest will probably one of the top marginal contests. The constituency is politically divided between rural areas of Léon which are traditionally conservative, and some working-class parts of Brest (Recouvrance, Saint-Pierre) which are long-time PS strongholds. The PS narrowly won this seat in 1997 (in part due to the right’s division) with François Cuillandre, who became mayor of Brest in 2001, but Cuillandre was defeated in 2002 and again in 2007 by the UMP’s Marguerite Lamour who won a second term with 52.4% in 2007 (the constituency, iirc, voted for Royal). This year, Hollande won no less than 55.9% of the vote.
 
It is definitely winnable for the left, with one little problem: the constituency was given to the Greenies (their candidate is Magali Deval, a local councillor in Quimper) by the PS as part of the deal. This is not Green-country, and Deval is unpopular with the PS because she was apparently a jerk to them in the 2011 cantonals. There is a dissident DVG candidacy by the mayor of Plabennec, who would benefit from the support of some local PS leaders if he ran. One of the main things to look at in the first round would be this left-wing primary, but my hunch is that whichever one of the two candidates comes out on top, the UMP will be hard pressed to hold this seat in the runoff save some particularly bad blood between the two lefties or if there is a general toxicity with the Greenies.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)
 
4th (Morlaix/Trégor, PS): This seat, mostly dominated by the solidly and traditionally left-wing Trégor rouge, has been held since 1997 by the new cabinet minister Marylise Lebranchu (PS) who has always been one of this department’s most well-known and visible local PS deputies (notably due to her proximity to Aubry). She won handily in 2007, with 54.4% of the vote in the runoff. She will win reelection in a much pinker political climate this year, but for some reason, the UMP has given the impression that it fancies its chances in this Socialist stronghold. Indeed, the UMP’s candidate is rather high-profile: Agnès Le Brun, MEP and mayor of Morlaix (a PS stronghold which the UMP gained in 2008). The UMP might resist decently, but it stands no real chance. Hollande won 60.7% of the vote.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
5th (Pays Léonard/Brest-est, UMP): The sitting member for the most conservative constituency in the Finistère is Jacques Le Guen, a villepiniste member of the UMP which seems to be on particularly bad terms with Sarkozy and co since 2010. This constituency takes in the most conservative parts of the old clerical-Catholic backwater which was the Léon, but has a growing Socialist base in its southern appendage, which takes in solidly left-leaning Guipavas and Landerneau. Sarkozy won the constituency in 2007 (his only one in the 29) while Le Guen won reelection with 54.8%, after having won by the first round in 2002. The PS had won 45.7% in 1997, but Hollande enjoyed a particularly big swing in his favour in the Léon this year and won no less than 55.4% of the votes in this constituency. This will be a very close race, and it will likely decide whether the left scores a clean sweep of the department. The PS is running the same candidate as in 2007, a local councillor.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
6th (Châteulin/Crozon/Monts-d’Arée, UMP^): André Siegfried had described the bulk of the regions covered in this constituency, save for the rock-ribbed socialist/communist Monts-d’Arée (Carhaix and Huelgoat), as some bastard region with no real political identity. What would he say of a constituency where the retiring UMP incumbent won his first election in 2002 with a 166-vote majority and a second term in 2007 with a 230-vote majority? At any rate, the constituency was far less indecisive in May 2012 – Hollande won 59.3%. Likely reading the writing on the wall, the UMP incumbent bowed out, leaving the UMP with the mayor of Plougastel-Daoulas (itself increasingly left-wing) as its candidate. On the left, the PS candidate who lost in 2007 is running again, but he faces potentially tough competition on the left from the left-regionalist mayor/general councillor of Carhaix, Christian Troadec, who had won 12.4% in 2007 but could do much better in 2012 benefiting from his strong local implantation in Carhaix. The FG could also be a presence in this constituency, which includes the old PCF stronghold of Le Huelgoat where Mélenchon did very well. In the end, the UMP has little chance of retaining this seat.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured (GAIN)
 
7th (Pays Bigouden/Douarnenez, PS): The PS gained this seat, which it had won in 1997 but lost in 2002, in 2007. That year, Annick Le Loch won 51% of the vote against the incumbent UMP deputy. This year, Hollande took nearly 59% of the vote in a constituency which is increasingly left-wing. The PS incumbent will easily retain her seat, but the right has an interesting little battle brewing between the AC (ex-MoDem) general councillor for Plogastel-Saint-Germain, Michel Cavenet, and the UMP general councillor for Pont-Croix. Cavenet had run for the MoDem in 2007 and took 19.5%, votes which did not do too much – to say the least – to help the UMP incumbent.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
8th (Concarneau/Quimperlé, PS): Including the old stronghold of Brittany’s unique communisme sardinier, this seat has been a fairly solid PS stronghold since Louis Le Pensec won the seat in 1973, holding it until 2002 when Gilbert Le Bris, then PS mayor of Concarneau, held the seat in a narrow contest. In 2007, Le Bris was handily reelected, ahead by the first round and winning 53.5% in the runoff. Even though the right gained Concarneau when Le Bris retired in 2008, the region is solidly left-wing. Hollande won 59.8% of the vote in the constituency. The division of the right between two candidates – one UMP, one NC, both of low calibre – will not help the right’s chances in a seat which voted PS even in 1993.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

Côtes-d’Armor
2007: 4 PS, 1 UMP
 
1st (Saint-Brieuc, PS^): This seat, which takes in Saint-Brieuc and adjacent cantons (including the former PCF working-class base of Ploufragan) has been held by the PS’ Danielle Bousquet since 1997. Bousquet, who won reelection with 57.7% in 2007, is retiring this year. Her successor will be Michel Lesage, the PS mayor/general councillor of Langueux. The only non-Socialist who could have made this race less boring is Bruno Joncour, the MoDem mayor of Saint-Brieuc who has a strong personal vote (iirc, he won reelection in 2008 by defeating Bousquet, after a fairly flukeish win in 2001). He isn’t running, so the UMP’s candidate – some local councillor in Saint-Brieuc, will be crushed in typical fashion in the second-safest leftie seat in the 22. Hollande won 61.4% of the vote on May 6.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Dinan, PS^): This is Charles Josselin’s old seat, who managed to hang on even in 1993. Since he retired in 2002, Jean Gaubert has been the seat’s holder. He narrowly defeated Michel Vaspart, the UMP mayor of Pleudihen and general councillor, in 2002 and beat Vaspart by a much larger margin in the 2007 runoff (54.7%). The right has some footholds in the constituency, Sarkozy even won the canton of Pléneuf-Val-André on May 6, but Flamby won 54.8% of the vote overall in the constituency that day. Gaubert is retiring, to be succeeded by the PS mayor of Plancoët, while Vaspart hopes that the third time is the charm. Despite the strong local base of the UMP duo (Vaspart’s suppléeant is CG for Pléneuf-Val-André), the left will win easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Loudéac/Lamballe, UMP): This is the only blue seat in the department, held by Marc Le Fur, the vice-president of the National Assembly, since 2002. Le Fur (UMP) was defeated by the PS’ Didier Chouat in 1997 but beat Chouat easily in 2002 (52.7%). In 2007, he did extremely well in the first round, taking 48%, but won reelection with a mediocre 52% in the second round against Loïc Cauret, the PS mayor of the leftie blue-collar city of Lamballe. Le Fur has some amount of personal appeal in this constituency, which went to Ségogo in 2007 and gave 55.7% to Hollande in 2012. Certainly he played a role in helping the right reconquer a number of cantons in the CG between 2004 and 2011, but it is doubtful whether Le Fur can survive what seems to be a little pink wavelet. In any case, the contest features a rematch between Cauret and Le Fur.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
4th (Guingamp/Trégor-Cornouaille, PS^): This seat, which englobes the quasi-entirety of the Red Belt of central Brittany, is ridiculously left-wing. Hollande won 65.7% of the vote here, taking over 60% in every single canton in this constituency. The seat elected a right-winger in 1993, but prior to that and since then it has been solidly left-wing. The PCF has retained a significant presence – Mélenchon won 15.4% - and won the seat twice, in 1978 and most recently in 1997 with Félix Leyzour. In 2002, Leyzour retired and the PCF’s Gérard Lahellec won only 15.8% of the vote and placed fourth, behind eventual PS winner Marie-Renée Oget and two right-wingers. Oget won 55.8% of the vote in the runoff, and in 2007 she took 63% in the runoff. Lahellec won 12.5% and third place in the first round. This is a solid leftie seat, and hell will freeze over before the right wins it in this climate.
 
However, the retirement of Oget and the PS-EELV deal has opened a nice little fraternal war on the left. This is a constituency conceded by Solférino to the Greenies, who finally nominated a local guy (Michel Balbot) rather than one Guy Hascoët (former Green deputy for the Nord and cabinet minister under Jospin, who has just rediscovered his native region). However, as always, Solférino’s deal with the Greenies didn’t go down well with the local PS. In dissidence, local Socialists are backing the PS mayor of Guingamp, Annie Le Houérou. On the other hand, given the FG’s momentum keeping up for now and Lahellec – who is running for a third shot – still holding a pretty strong base, it would also be foolish to count out the FG. We thus have a nice leftie sh**tfest, with a Greenie who is endorsed by Solférino, a dissident locally implanted Socialist with local PS endorsements, and a Commie who has a solid base. What happens in this case is anyone’s guess, but there is a nice chance that the right will be out by the first round or that the numbers could give a triangulaire. I think whichever one of Balbot, Le Houérou or Lahellec imposes him-herself as the leftie contender will win easily. But I can’t say which one of those three it will be (but my gut is pessimistic about EELV’s real chances).
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left (EELV/DVG/FG-PCF tossup)
 
5th (Lannion/Côte de granit rose/Trégor, PS): This is a solidly left-wing constituency, held by the PS since 1997. In 2007, Corinne Erhel had no trouble in succeeding Alain Gouriou. She won with a big 56.1% in the runoff, and in May Hollande took 59.3%. The UMP has some dwindling strength in coastal resort-type places like Perros-Guirec or Étables-sur-Mer (Sarko won the canton narrowly), but the main city – Lannion – is a PS stronghold (69% for Hollande in the canton) and other coastal cantons such as Plouha, Paimpol or Tréguier are fairly left-leaning nowadays. The right has conceded, the UMP putting up its departmental boss. It appears as if the centrist-Radical mayor of Paimpol, Jean-Yves de Chaisemartin, who had run in 2007 for the MoDem will not be running this year. He would probably have been a more high calibre guy than the UMP’s sacrificial lamb.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

Great stuff, as always.

Excellent. I will be reading these intently the next few days.

I'm speechless... You are gonna cover ALL 577 CONSTITUENCIES ? :o :o :o

Thank you. Just thank you. :D

Morbihan
2007: 5 UMP, 1 PS
 
1st (Vannes/Golfe du Morbihan, UMP-RS)*: There is a big chance that the guy who holds this seat voted for Hollande. His name is François Goulard, and he is one of the most anti-Sarkozyst of the UMP and a prominent villepiniste – one of the few who actually joined the Villepin clan party. Most recently, Goulard was successful in getting elected to a marginal canton to become president of the CG, but his senatorial candidacy last fall was a fail of epic proportions. Goulard has held this seat since 1997 and he is running for a third term. He won easily in 1997 (55%) and in 2002 (58%) but more narrowly in 2007 (53%). Goulard is running for a fourth term, but the right – just like the left – is divided. On the right, regional and local councillor Gilles Dufeigneux is running as the vaguely centre-right candidate under the AC label. On the left, the PS officially nominated Claude Jahier, a local councillor in Vannes. But there is a much more well-known and higher profile DVG PS dissident, Hervé Pellois, general councillor for Vannes-Est, a local mayor and the PS’ unsuccessful candidate in the last two elections.
 
Sarko still won 51.8% of the vote here. Vannes proper remains pretty right-wing, especially when compared to Lorient or other Breton cities, and the wealthy places/old people places/mini resorts lining the Golfe (beautiful place, but I digress) are also really right-wing (the canton of Sarzeau gave Sarko 59%). The loss of one canton (La-Roche-Bernard) might have made the constituency a tiny bit more leftie, but not by a whole lot. If this turns into a 1981 leftslide, then the PS might have a real shot. For now, I’d say it’s a long shot which is probably not on their target list.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
2nd (Port-Louis/Auray /Quiberon/Belle-Île, UMP): UMP incumbent Michel Grall is running for a second term. The former mayor of Carnac won a fairly close race in 2007, with 52.3% of the vote in the runoff after emerging as the best of three right-wing candidates (the DVD mayor of Quiberon and the MPF CG for Quiberon) in the first round. This is a traditionally right-leaning area, with Quiberon’s peninsula and small resort places/old people towns like Carnac or La Trinité-sur-Mer being very right-wing, but with Port-Louis, Belle-Île and Pluvigner a bit more left-inclined. Grall faces a dissident candidacy from the DVD CG for Auray (Philippe Le Ray), while the PS’ Nathalie Le Magueresse – running for a third time – faces no serious threat from the Greenies or the FG. The PCF mayor of Auray (which is a fairly right-wing place…), now senator, ran in the last three legislative elections and grabbed 10.3% in 2007. Sarko won 50.6% here, and this is a potential gain for the left, though I'm conflicted about how to classify it...
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
3rd (Pontivy, UMP^): The UMP incumbent Gérard Lorgeoux is retiring after two terms. This used to be a fairly safe seat for the right, which easily held on back in 1997 and Lorgeoux won 56% in 2007. Nowadays, it is increasingly marginal. Lorgeoux won 53% in 2007, and Hollande won the constituency with 50.9%, doing especially well in Baud and Pontivy (whose political temperament is closer to that of the western Vannetais than the Vannetais gallo...). Lorgeoux is retiring this year, and the UMP candidate is the CG for Grand-Champ, Yves Bleunven. The PS candidate is the perennial candidate, Jean-Pierre Le Roch, the PS mayor of Pontivy, who has apparently run five times. This is an extremely vulnerable seat, made all the more shaky by the incumbent's retirement.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

4th (Ploërmel/Guer, UMP^)*: This used to be reactionary heartland, whose past deputies including two monarchist Ducs de Rohan (whose castle is in Josselin, and whose latest politician was, of course, a senator until 2008) and which used to give over 70% to the right in the 60s. What is is today is a far cry from what it was back then. Sarko only won 50.4% here, and cantons like Questembert, Allaire, Mauron and even Ploërmel are becoming a bit left-leaning. The addition of the more right-wing canton of La-Roche-Bernard (53% for Sarko) from Goulard's turf was aimed at shoring things up for the right. Indeed, in 2007, the UMP incumbent in this seat since 1973, Loïc Bouvard, won reelection with a bare 50.4% after having won 57% in both 1997 and 2002. A lot of that was due to the local popularity of the PS candidate, Béatrice Le Marre, then the PS CG for Ploërmel and the mayor of that city since 2008. She did particularly well in Ploërmel, which is a bit more right-wing (51% for Sarko, she had won 52% in the 2007 runoff). Bouvard is retiring this year, and Le Marre is not running. We thus have a fairly cool contest shaping up. On the right, the UMP has endorsed none other than François Guéant, suppleant and CR, but above all son of the collabo. Lil Guéant has little political talent of his own (he got his ass handed to him in the 2008 cantonals), but has managed to get so far because of his last name. He isn't extremely popular with the old right-wingers, notably Jean-Luc Bléher, the mayor of Guer who is bitter at Lil Guéant since 2007. Bléher is running as a dissident, endorsed by the local NC but not by the national party. On the left, this constituency is included in the PS-EELV deal, so the PS conceded this seat to the Greenies who in turn conceded it to their sidekick, the local regionalist UDB, whose candidate Paul Molac has the support of the national PS. There is a dissident DVG candidacy from Charles-Edouard Fichet, a local mayor. The MoDem candidate, Michel Guégan, is also a mayor.

I'm at a loss as to what we can expect. Le Marre was an excellent candidate for the PS in 2007, and the left isn't as strong (in terms of candidates) this year, but the right is in a sh**tstorm and Lil Guéant doesn't exactly scream intelligence. I could guess this is vulnerable, and not be too wrong in saying that... but I'll err on the safe side of things.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

5th (Lorient, PS): The old working-class city of Lorient is the left's oldest and safest base in this historically right-wing country. Hollande won no less than 57.7% in this constituency, which also includes the old proletarian PCF stronghold of Lanester (66% Hollande), the more right-wing coastal canton of Ploemeur and Groix. Current defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian held this seat until 2004. The PS incumbent died in office and her successor, Gwendal Rouillard, is running for reelection. In 2007, the PS won easily with 55.3% in the runoff. Rouillard will have no trouble winning reelection. The UMP candidate is Brigitte Mélin, a local official in the wealthy coastal suburb of Lorient of Larmor-Plage.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

6th (Hennebont/Plouay, UMP): This is a weird seat, kind of. Royal won it in 2007, and Hollande won no less than 56.4% here on May 6, yet it reelected the UMP incumbent, Jacques Le Nay, with a solid 54.7% in 2007. Le Nay has been the incumbent here since 1993, when he gained this open PS-held seat. This seat covers the working-class PCF stronghold of Hennebont, the similarly proletarian but PS-leaning Inzinzac-Lochrist and the 'rural' areas of the western Vannetais which form, politically, an extension of the Red Belt's left-wing temperament. Le Nay, has a solid personal vote which is concentrated around his Plouay stronghold, the town he's been mayor of since 1989. In 1997, he narrowly held on with 50.6% against the PS mayor of Inzinzac, but in 2002 he won reelection by the first round and in 2007 he won 49% by the first round (which makes his 54.7% victory a bit less impressive...). He notably won 70% of the vote in Plouay and 64% in the canton of Plouay (but also won the rural cantons and Pont-Scorff, losing only in Hennebont). The PS has a new candidate this year, Philippe Noguès, who is also from Inzinzac. He will need, first, to defeat some fairly solid left-wing competitors: Gérard Perron, the PCF mayor of Hennebont who won 9.8% in 2007 and is solidly implanted in his home commune; and Christian Derrien, the Troadec ally who is CG for Gourin since 2011 (and mayor of Langonnet). Le Nay is running for reelection, after having been defeated in the shocking 2011 senatorial elections (though he still was the best right-wing candidate in that epic fail election).

This will certainly be a tough race. Le Nay is probably the only UMP candidate who stands a fighting chance, and he probably commands a favourite-son vote in Plouay (he won reelection in 2008 with over 64%). But this seat is structurally left-wing, and Le Nay seems to be weakening as an incumbent. I doubt he could win reelection in a 1997 climate at this point.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

Many thanks. Really interesting.
So I will have a guide to follow on election night

very interesting, sharif.

Are you from britanny ? (personnaly, I long lived -my mother is britton- in douarn' )

Great !!!
I envy you to have the time and the courage to do it...
Thanks a lot !

In Côtes d'Armor, I think Le Fur can make it, as he is very well entrenched.

In Morbihan, the PS has been stupid to let the 4th to the Greens: I think the right will prevail.
But the right will loose the 6th and probably the 3rd.

In Finistère, I agree of course, but not on the 5th: Le Guen is able to campaign well.

I look forward to reading Ille-et-Vilaine: no pure tossup, Hash, eh ? It would be too easy ;)

We'll see how far you'll get. ;)

Ille-et-Vilaine
2007: 4 PS (incl. 1 DVG), 2 UMP, 1 MoDem (now AC)

1st (Rennes-sud, PS-DVG)*: This seat has lost the canton of Rennes sud-ouest and gained the canton of Bruz, which does not change the state of things much. This is a solidly left-wing seat, held by the PS even in the 1993 epic fail. Hollande won 65% of the vote here, taking 74% in Rennes-Le Blosne and 69% in Rennes-centre sud (respectively a cite populaire canton and a bobo canton). Under different boundaries, the PS incumbent for this area since 1981, Jean-Michel Boucheron, won 65.5% of the vote in the runoff. This year, Boucheron tried to run in the new 8th constituency but got defeated in the primary by another PS incumbent, so backtracked into his old seat. The problem is that the PS had already endorsed Marie-Anne Chapdelaine, a local councillor. Boucheron is thus running for reelection as a dissident. The Greens, who are strong in centre sud, should make a presence, they already won 5.2% in 2007. Which one of the incumbent dissident or the official solferiniste will win is something I'm not too sure about, given that both candidates seem strong (Chapdelaine's suppleant is the PS CG for Bruz). At any rate, it is still a safe left-wing seat. The UMP has endorsed the MoDem/AC mayor of Chantepie (a fairly bland suburb which is very leftie), Grégoire Le Blond, who won 11.4% of the vote in 2007 and won election in leftie Chantepie in 2008 thanks to the division of the right. The MoDem itself seems to be in the crapper throughout the department, with a huge internal civil war going on.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

2nd (Elbridge Gerry Memorial Constituency/Rennes-est/Cesson/Liffré, PS^)*: The old second has been turned around sideways by Marleix, losing the cantons of Combourg, Saint-Aubin-d'Aubigné, Tinteniac, Rennes-centre and Rennes-nord gaining instead Cesson, Liffré and Rennes-est. The result is something which is a dictionary definition of a gerrymander, perhaps aimed at shoring up the two right-wing constituencies in the east of the department. Hollande won 59.7% of the vote here, taking over 60% in Rennes and Liffré. This is largely a constituency of Rennes' middle-class/well-off suburbs; Cesson, Betton and Saint-Grégoire being quite affluent suburbs. Hédé, the ugly northern appendage of this monstrosity, is part of a belt in central north-western Ille-et-Vilaine (along with Tinteniac and Saint-Aubin-d'Aubigne) which has an older leftie republican/RadSoc tradition. In the vastly different boundaries in 2007, the PS won 56% in the runoff. The PS candidate here is new, Nathalie Apperé, a local councillor in Rennes. The UMP has a random sacrificial lamb. The PS will win very easily here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

3rd (a little bit of everything, PS^)*: This constituency has also changed a lot, losing Mordelles and Rennes-centre ouest, gaining Tinteniac and Combourg. This has shifted the PS incumbent, Marcel Rogemont, into the 8th constituency. In its new shape, Hollande took 56.9% on May 6. Save for the canton of Saint-Méen-le-Grand (which includes a commune with a great name...) which is more rural (and still conservative) and the canton of Combourg, more distant from Rennes; this is a largely suburban area, not as affluent as the parts included in the 2nd, but still not too shabby (Pacé, one of the main cities here, is fairly affluent and used to be more right-leaning). The left is, therefore, dominant. The PS candidate is François André, CG for Rennes nord-ouest (and his suppleant is the PS CG for Combourg). The UMP candidate might have had a chance in a way better year, but Philippe Rouault, who was the deputy between 2002 and 2007, has been on the way out since his 2007 defeat. No contest again, PS wins. BTW, the DLR candidate has an unfortunate name, for Anglos: Gaylord Odic (though a last name with 'Urdic' would have been better)
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

4th (Redon, PS)*: This constituency has lost the canton of Bruz. Hollande won 55.8% in this constituency whose largest city is Redon, but whose other cantons (notably Guichen) are under the growing influence of Rennes and are a kind of weird hybrid between dying rural culture and middle-class suburbanites. The "suburban" cantons are not very affluent or highly educated as the older 'burbs, being more lower middle-class exurban though not of a exurban-FN voting type. This has, of course, helped the left, which gained Alain Madelin's old seat in 2007 (which had become marginal in 2002) with Jean-René Marsac (PS) winning 52.9% in the runoff. Redon, Guichen and Le-Sel are the left's strongest cantons. Marsac is running for reelection, while the UMP is supporting a local mayor (and former CG for the canton of Redon) Dominique Julaud (AC). This seat is trending hard left, and Marsac will have no trouble winning reelection.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

5th (Vitré, UMP^)*: Besides 1968-1973, this seat has been the personal stronghold of the centre-right Méhaignerie family. Pierre Méhaignerie, one of the UMP's most prominent ex-CDS centrists, is retiring after having been in office since 1973. Méhaignerie had won reelection by the first round in 2007, with 52.7%. This seat has becoming more right-wing after Marleix amputated it of Rennes-est and Cesson, two cantons which had the disadvantage of voting incorrectly. All in all, the seat remains centered around Vitré and includes most of the extremely conservative eastern confines of Ille-et-Vilaine, which is old reactionary/chouan/Catho country. This was Sarko's best constituency in Brittany, taking it with 53.4% (which is still a pathetic result). The cantons of Chateaugiron and Janzé have become more leftie as they become part of Rennes' suburban belt. Vitré and the rural cantons (Retiers, La Guerche, Argentre-du-Plessis) remain very conservative. The UMP's candidate is Isabelle Le Callenec, an aide to Méhaignerie. She faces a MoDem and Radical candidate. It is pretty unlikely she will win by the first round, but she remains the favourite in the runoff against PS candidate Anne-Laure Loray.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

6th (Fougères, AC)*: This constituency, which has lost Liffré but gained Saint-Aubin-d'Aubigné and Pleine-Fougères, made headlines in 2007 when MoDem candidate Thierry Benoit, fresh from beating a divided left in the first round, defeated the UMP incumbent Marie-Thérèse Boisseau (in office since 1993) with 55.1% of the vote, thanks in good part to left-wing voters. A scenario not quite unlike the 1993 one, when Boisseau (UDF) had toppled long-time Gaullist deputy Michel Cointat. Benoit has proven to be a fairly right-wing deputy, having left the MoDem to align with the AC which is a bit less hostile to the outgoing majority. This year, he is the uncontested candidate of the right, endorsed by the UMP. However, Hollande won 50.9% in this constituency, which used to be very conservative, but which is now increasingly marginal. The left, however, sees its chances of an historic conquest in this region of the department complicated by division. As in 2002 and 2007, the PS has no candidate and is backing EELV's Agathe Remoué. She faces a tough challenge from Louis Feuvrier, the centre-left/DVG mayor of the blue-collar city of Fougères who had been the left's candidate in 1993. Feuvrier benefits from a strong local base which EELV does not really have, and I would edge towards pinning him as the top left-wing candidate. The runoff will be very closely fought, but Benoit might have a tiny edge.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

7th (Saint-Malo/Côte d'Émeraude, DVD^)*: This seat has lost the canton of Pleine-Fougères. The incumbent deputy and mayor of Saint-Malo, René Couanau (who quit the UMP last year) is retiring after holding this fairly conservative constituency since 1988. In 2007, he won the runoff very easily, with 57% of the vote (but he had won by the first round in 2002). He has been hit by voter fatigue in recent years, so he is handing his hat over to Gilles Lurton, his right-hand man and the newly-elected CG for Saint-Malo Sud (and his suppleant is CG for Dol-de-Bretagne). He faces a fraternal first round battle with the UMP's official candidate, Nicolas Belloir, who appears much weaker than Lurton. To complicate things a bit further, there is a centrist candidacy from Jean-Francis Richeux (AC), CG for Châteauneuf-d'Ille-et-Vilaine and 2007 MoDem candidate (winning 15.1%).
Sarko won 50.4% in this constituency, losing the city of Saint-Malo narrowly but holding up in the more right-leaning cantons of Dinard and Cancale. If the left has a shot (it kind of does), it is definitely not with its perennial epic fail of a candidate since 1993, Isabelle Thomas, an old student leader and an untalented party hack. The left stands a much better chance if Michel Penhoët, the PRG mayor of Saint-Lunaire and CG for Dinard since 2008, is able to place ahead of Thomas in the first round. Penhoët was able to win the wealthy right-wing canton of Dinard back in 2008 (due to right-wing divisions, in part) and is a much stronger candidate than Thomas, whose mission to become an MEP failed in 2009.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

8th (Rennes-ouest/Mordelles)+: This is a new constituency, made up of the cantons of Mordelles, Rennes-sud-ouest (including Saint-Jacques-de-la-Lande), Rennes-centre-ouest, Rennes-centre and Rennes-nord. The incumbent in the third constituency (Marcel Rogemont) has found his canton moved to this constituency, so he is running for reelection in this constituency, after having defeated Boucheron in a primary. The new seat is very left-wing, including parts of Rennes and Mordelles which is a middle-class suburban area (and is also leftie). Hollande won 63.4% here. The UMP sacrificial lamb is Bruno Chavanat, the leader of the futile right-wing opposition in Rennes. Rogemont will win very easily in any case.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

??? It's Saint-Onen-la-Chapelle, not Saint-Onan.
Oh wait, that's not what you meant...

Gaël is a small commune which has fought against a lbig litter depository for a long time now ;D
Close to the Brocéliande forest !

Ille-et-Vilaine, 7th: I agree with you, as the left is even worse than the right here :P

Ille-et-Vilaine, 6th: well the right is indeed favoured, but Feuvrier is a very good candidate. Too bad he has this stupidity again of a Green candidate that no one knows: if the left isn't able to win, well, really, they are STUPIDLY STUPID, because Benoît isn't very well entrenched and the fact that many centrists are allied to the right isn't very well seen. So, if the Grren is crushed in the 1st round, Feuvrier will win in the 2nd.

I was in the old 6th and now I'm in the 2nd: imagine how sad I am currently :(
My vote MIGHT have been decisive this year :P :(
After all, I hate Marleix too, you know, Hash ;)

What does AC stand for?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centrist_Alliance (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centrist_Alliance)

Loire-Atlantique
2007: 5 PS, 3 UMP, 1 Green, 1 NC

1st (Nantes-Orvault, EELV): In 2007, benefiting a lot from the absence of a PS candidate, François de Rugy (Green) defeated UMP incumbent Jean-Pierre Le Ridant with 52% of the runoff. This seat's composition is unchanged, but it is increasingly unwinnable for the right. Hollande won 56.7% here, including 56% in the affluent middle-class suburb of Orvault and 68% in the canton of Nantes-7 (a low-income neighborhood). de Rugy, who failed to topple the incumbent centre-right mayor of Orvault in 2008, is running for reelection and will win handily. The UMP sacrificial lamb is François Pinte, the departmental leader and unsuccessful candidate in the second constituency in 2002 and 2007.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

2nd (Nantes-centre et sud, PS): The other nantais constituency is also looking increasingly impregnable for the right, which had won it in 1988. PS incumbent Marie-Françoise Clergeau won reelection by a big margin in 2007, 54.8%, larger than her original margin in 1997. Hollande took 60% of the vote, propelled by bobos in the downtown core and more downtrodden low-income or lower middle-class neighborhoods. The right does have a solid base in the old bourgeois 4th canton, but that's it. Clergeau will glide to reelection easily, facing token opposition from the UMP's candidate, Laurence Garnier, a local councillor. She could win by the first round, but that will likely be denied by a solid result by EELV and the FG.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

3rd (Saint-Herblain, PS): Prime Minister Ayrault's seat is one of the safest seats for the PS in the entire country. In 2007, he won 49.8% in the first round and 66.2% in the runoff. In 2002, he won reelection by the first round. And on May 6, Hollande took 65.2%. This constituency combines poor social housing tracts and low-income parts of Nantes with the old industrial conglomeration on the banks of the Loire, in this case the cities of Indre and Saint-Herblain. This isn't really proletarian country at this point, more lower-income employees and the like. The UMP has given up and endorsed a no-name (the wife of the former deputy for the 1st constituency). Ayrault will win over 50% of the votes by the first round, and provided abstention is low enough, will be elected outright on June 10.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

4th (Rezé, PS): This is another extremely solid leftie seat, represented by Dominique Raimbourg (PS) since 2008. Raimbourg won 44.4% in the first round and 64.5% in the runoff. Hollande took 64.5% too in this constituency, which is centered around the old working-class suburb of Rezé but also includes the more affluent St-Sebastien-sur-Loire and a part of Nantes. Again, there's no contest here. Raimbourg has a good chance of winning by the first round as well.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

5th (Carquefou/La-Chapelle-sur-Erdre, PS)*: The election of a PS deputy, Michel Ménard, here in 2007 was a bit of an historic feat in a conservative constituency. Even in 1997, the right had won 53% in the runoff. But this region is changing, the result of the leftization associated with the suburban growth in western Nantes. Carqefou and La-Chapelle-sur-Erdre, whose cantons include some professional, educated middle-class suburbs of Nantes, are increasingly leftie. The constituency has been restructured and made more left-wing: it loses Ancenis, Varade, Riaillé and Saint-Mars-la-Jaille, but gains Nort-sur-Erdre. Hollande won 56.3% here, the inclusion of Nantes-8 in this constituency (63.6%) proving quite helpful. Ménard will win easily, but the right doesn't have a bad candidate: Maurice Perrion, AC CG for Ligné and 2007 MoDem candidate (14.2%).
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

6th (Chateaubriant/Ancenis, NC)*: This constituency loses Nort-sur-Erdre but expands to gobble up Saint-Nicolas-de-Redon, Ancenis, Varade, Riaillé and Saint-Mars-la-Jaille. Historically, this region - especially around Chateaubriant - has been a very conservative region. Since 1993, Michel Hunault (RPR, then UMP and now NC) has been reelected without excessive trouble, by the first round in 2002 but with a fairly "little" 53.9% in 2007. Before that, his father, Xavier Hunault had represented the area since 1962. However, Hollande having won 52.4% in the constituency (performing best in Blain and Saint-Nicolas-de-Redon, which have been leftie for quite some time, and under the influence of Nantes; but also winning in Ancenis, Chateaubriant and Hunault's home base of Derval) will give Hunault his toughest run yet. The PS candidate, Yves Daniel, is the mayor of Mouais and the CG for Derval (which Hunault represented for a while in the CG). But Hunault is a strong local candidate and he seems to have a strong personal vote. In 2004, his dissident centre-right list in the Euros won 26.7% in the constituency (a close second behind the PS, reducing the UMP to 5.5%) - against 6.3% for his list in the department. Hunault can probably perform better here than Sarko did, but it will certainly be a tough race.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

7th (Guérande/La Baule/Pays de Brière, UMP)*: This constituency has lost the left-leaning canton of Saint-Nicolas-de-Redon, shifting it to the right a bit and giving more weight to the core right-wing strongholds in this constituency which gave 51.5%. While the Brière region (the Saint-Nazaire backcountry, and a truly dreary place) is working-class and very left-wing with 63% for Hollande in the canton of Pontchateau and 58% in Saint-Gildas-des-Bois; the famed coastal resort towns of La Baule, Pornichet and Le Croisic (plus the city of Guérande, which is really nice) are quite conservative. This constituency elected a Socialist, René Leroux, in 1997 (a real surprise back then, after having been Olivier Guichard's home turf), but since 2002 it has been represented by the UMP mayor of Guérande, Christophe Priou, who won a second term with 57.9% in the runoff in 2007 (and 49.9% in the first round). His reelection will be a bit harder this year for Priou, who faces a local councillor, Hélène Chailler (PS). However, he remains favoured, given the redistricting's effects.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

8th (Saint-Nazaire/Montoire, PS): This very left-wing constituency (65.9% Hollande) is centered around the industrial working-class city of Saint-Nazaire (which isn't *as* proletarian as people think, but is still a fairly low-income and dreary city) and its very proletarian and uber-leftie hinterland along the Loire (Montoire-de-Bretagne, a PCF stronghold). The area around Savenay is a more middle-class area under Nantes' greater influence, but the constituency remains under the double-dominance of Montoire and Saint-Nazaire. Hollande won between 63% and 70% in Saint-Nazaire's three cantons and nearly 70% in Montoire. The PS incumbent Marie-Odile Bouillé, in office since 2007, won in 2007 with 64.3%. In 1997, the right didn't even make the runoff in the fraternal fight between then-PS incumbent Claude Evin and the MDC mayor of Saint-Nazaire, Joel-Guy Batteux. Bouillé will, shockingly, glide to reelection, but a strong FG performance in a place where Melenchon won 15.4% will prevent a first round reelection.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

9th (Pays de Retz/Pornic, UMP): The Pays de Retz used to be a right-wing stronghold until not too long ago, but Sarko only won 50.2% in this constituency and in 2007, the UMP mayor of Pornic Philippe Boënnec won only 53% in the runoff (a smaller result than in 1997). Indeed, though the coastal resort town of Pornic and places such as Machecoul remain quite right-wing, the area is attracting some less affluent middle-class suburbanites from Nantes. Hollande won 61% in the canton du Pellerin, part of which is part of Nantes' industrialized western suburbs; and 55% in Paimboeuf, which is a Saint-Nazaire suburb on the other side of the Loire. The PS mayor of Saint-Philbert-de-Grand-Lieu, Monique Rabin, is running for a third time and she is a strong candidate. The race will be pretty tough, and a lot hinges on whether or not Rabin can do better in her native canton (Saint-Philbert-de-Grand-Lieu, a more or less right-wing place) than in 2007. I would classify this as another tossup in which the UMP might be starting off with a tiny edge.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

10th (Vertou/Clisson/Vignoble Nantais, UMP^): The Vignoble has usually been a conservative bastion, even in 2007 the UMP's Serge Poignant won 56.9% in the runoff. But, again, things are changing. Hollande won 51.4% in this constituency, the result of the leftization of the affluent middle-class suburb of Vertou and its surroundings. Clisson and the confines of the Vignoble remain more right-leaning, but not by all that much - Hollande won 49.6% in the canton of Clisson. The UMP incumbent Serge Poignant is retiring after four terms, leaving an open seat and an even tougher fight for the right. The PS candidate is a local mayor, Sophie Errante. The UMP is running the mayor of Vertou, Laurent Dejoie (his father, Luc Dejoie, was a RPR Senator and mayor of Vertou between 1971 and 1995). I'm conflicted about this race. Dejoie is a strong candidate and he could perform better in Vertou than Sarko, but at the same time the seat is becoming increasingly leftie. Call me a broken record or a wuss, but I'll err safe and save face by a pure tossup call.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

It is if the locals think it is :)

Vendée
2007: 2 UMP, 1 NC, 1 DVD, 1 MPF

1st (La Roche-nord/Challans, NC^): In 1986, Pasqua came up with a fine gerrymander which divided the two overpopulated cantons of the old republican city of La Roche-sur-Yon and placed the northern canton in this constituency, which takes in rural cantons in the bocage and Challans. Hollande won 57% in La Roche-nord, but lost heavily in all other cantons including Challans (59.8% Sarko), the old home turf of the Baudry d'Asson family (I can't talk about this department and not mentioned them). Sarko won 53.5% in the constituency as a whole. The incumbent here since 1988 is Jean-Luc Préel (NC, ex-UDF) who won reelection in 2007 with 56.9%. In 2007, the aging incumbent faced a very tough first round challenge from Alain Leboeuf, the DVD mayor and CG of Rocheservière. Leboeuf won 27.9% in the first round, placing second, ahead of the PS, but finally backed out to prevent a fatal three-way runoff. This year, Leboeuf's second candidacy - which received the backing of the big boss of the department - the UMP (ex-MPF) president of the CG, Bruno Retailleau, compelled Préel  to retire from a race which would surely have been his last. The right enters this contest united behind Leboeuf, who has the UMP's support. The PS does not have a solid chance here and its candidate, Martine Chantecaille, a local councillor in La Roche, is not really a strong one.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

2nd (La Roche-sud/Talmont, UMP): This is the second constituency covering La Roche (the southern canton, grossly overpopulated, 57% Hollande), this one made right-leaning by the useful addition of the coastal canton of Talmont-Saint-Hilaire (and Moutiers-les-Mauxfaits which has a coastal strip) which is full of old wealthy retirees who vote for the right. Since 1997 this seat has been held by Dominique Caillaud (UMP) who was originally elected in 1997 as a UDF dissident backed by de Villiers, but since 2002 a bland UMPer. He won reelection in 2007 by a fairly tight margin, 54.8% in the runoff against PS candidate Sylviane Bulteau, who became CG for La Roche-sud back in 2008. Sarko won here with 52%, but of the two yonnais constituencies, this is the one where the PS has the biggest hopes. Sylviane Bulteau is running again, her third shot, but since 2008 she has a solid base as CG in La Roche-sud. On the right, Caillaud could be hurt by the fourth successive candidacy of local councillor Raoul Mestre (he may be related to a former deputy for this seat), who ran for the MoDem in 2007 (10.7%) but is running as a DVD this year. I expect Caillaud to win, by a very tight margin (51%) or so, but in case of a 1981-wave, Bulteau can probably win here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

3rd (Les Sables/Côte de Lumière, UMP): This is a very solid right-wing seat, centered around the affluent coastal resort of Les Sables-d'Olonne and stretching up and down the Côte de Lumière of the Vendée to englobe most of the department's famous coastal resort communities, plus the two islands. Sarkozy won 60.2% of the vote here, and the right (usually the Gaullists, strong in Les Sables) has held this seat with huge majorities for ages. The UMP mayor of Les Sables, Louis Guédon, has held this seat since 1993. In 2002 and 2007, he won by the first round, taking 52.7% in 2007. The left is not risking much here by officially conceding the seat to the Greenies, in the person of Claudine Goichon, but there is a strong dissident DVG candidacy here led by Jacques Fraisse, the PS mayor of Saint-Hilaire-de-Riez who ran and lost in 1997 and 2002. But the right is divided as well. Guédon is an old man (like most of his constituents), so he faces a dissident candidacy from an ambitious youngie, the DVD (ex-MPF) mayor of Olonne-sur-Mer, Yannick Moreau, running alongside the ex-MPF CG for Saint-Gilles-Croix-de-Vie. Guédon will probably win a fifth term, but Moreau could prove a strong candidate. The left? Can't win here, as the LibDem bar charts would tell us.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right (our first such seat thus far!)

4th (Montaigu/Mortagne/Haut-Bocage, MPF): This constituency used to be one of the most right-wing in the whole of France, with the right usually taking 70-80% of the vote here until not too long ago. But above that, it is also Philippe de Villiers' old seat, having held it between 1988 and 2005 (with a 94-97 break). He was succeeded in a 2005 by-election by Véronique Besse, who won over 70% in that by-election in the first round and won reelection in 2007 with 61% by the first round. Sarko only won 59.3% here, and this constituency isn't really the reactionary chouan bastion of yesteryears. Montaigu is tightening up as it becomes a bit more suburban (Nantes and Cholet). The MPF, finally, is dwindling into total irrelevance as all its big names leave the sinking ship and the party finds itself without a leader and a direction. But Besse, who is once again backed by the UMP, will win reelection easily, potentially by the first round. A Radical candidate could make stuff a bit more difficult, but the PS candidate (a regional councillor), Maï Haeffelin, will be crushed.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

5th (Fontenay-le-Comte/Plaine et marais, MPF): This constituency, which includes most of the old republican strongholds of the plaine and marais, is the most left-wing constituency in the department. Sarko won narrowly with 51.6% here, losing in Fontenay and most of the plaine/marais cantons but winning thanks to a huge win in the very conservative Chataigneraie (a bocage canton) and a closer win in Lucon. This was the only constituency in the department to ever elect a Socialist, in 1981 and 1988, but since 1993 it has been held by the right - until 2008 by Joël Sarlot (DVD, ex-UDF), a fairly useless drone who nonetheless managed impressive reelections in 2002 and 2007 - by the first round in both cases, with about 52%. In 2008, Sarlot's election was invalidated and he was replaced in a by-election by Dominique Souchet, a MPF general councillor. In 1997, Sarlot had won a narrow second term with 52% in the runoff against Jean-Claude Remaud, the ex-PS (now PRG) mayor of Fontenay-le-Comte until 2008.
We have a fun heavy three-way fight this year. Sarlot wants his old seat back, and in this he has the backing of the UMP. His suppleant is Valentin Josse, the DVD CG for La Chataingneraie. However, Souchet, despite not having the UMP's backing, is running for reelection. His suppleant is the former CG for Maillezais. On the left, the PS candidate is Hugues Fourage, the new mayor of Fontenay-le-Comte, running in duo with the PS CG for Chaille-les-Marais. This year, Remaud will not be running for a fifth successive failed candidacy. Most people appear to be betting either on Sarlot or Souchet (I would tend towards the former) but it would be a mistake to count the PS (who has some strong candidates) out in this marginal constituency. The PS certainly faces an uphill battle here, though.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right (or tossup with right edge)

Maine-et-Loire
2007: 5 UMP, 1 PS, 1 CD

1st (Angers-centre/est/nord-est, UMP^): The city of Angers is split into four different constituencies, this one takes in the centre, est and nord-est cantons in addition to Tiercé and Chateauneuf-sur-Sarthe. This has usually tended to be a more right-leaning constituency, the more leftist leanings of parts of Angers (though the canton of Angers-centre includes the city's most bourgeois, and thus conservative, parts) being more than compensated by the conservatism found in the more rural cantons of Tiercé and Chateauneuf-sur-Sarthe. This year, Hollande narrowly won the constituency with 51.6%, taking 56% in Angers east and north-east (the east cantons includes the fairly working-class suburb of Saint-Barthélemy-d'Anjou, 56.5% for Hollande) and even doing quite well in suburbanizing Tiercé. The seat has been the preserve of the Narquin/Bachelot family since 1968 (Jean Narquin, Gaullist, from 68 to 88; and his daughter Roselyne Bachelot since then). Roro may be a moron, but her family is a household name in these parts. She won 54.7% in the runoff in 2007, and 58.3% in 2002. This year, she is retiring and the UMP's replacement is her suppleant (thus kinda-incumbent) Paul Jeanneteau. The PS, as in 2007, will be represented by Angers city councillor Luc Belot, who has worked the ground well since his 2007 defeat. A weird Cap21-DVG ticket led by a former Socialist and whose suppleant is the CG for Anger-est might register a good result in the first round. This is certainly one of the PS' top targets in this department and is quite winnable.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

2nd (Angers-Trélazé/Ponts-de-Cé, PS): The PS had conquered this seat in 2007, an historic first for the left in old ultra-conservative Anjou. This constituency includes the southern canton of Angers plus that of Trélazé, a very working-class suburb of Angers (slate quarries) which is the most left-wing canton in the Maine-et-Loire (the city was 68% Hollande). Hollande won 53.8% in this seat, boosted not only by Trélazé and Angers (Angers-sud was 59% for Hollande, that cantons includes a few cités) but also by some middle-class suburbs of Angers in the Ponts-de-Cé area on the banks of the river. The right won this seat in 1997, but in 2007, Marc Goua, the PS mayor of Trélazé, took 52.1% in the runoff against the UMP incumbent. Goua is safe, the UMP is not going after this seat aggressively by the looks of it (a PCD candidate endorsed by the UMP).
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

3rd (Saumur-nord/Baugeois), UMP): The Baugeois used to be the republican stronghold in royalist Anjou, but the old political divisions in this region have been erased quite considerably. While still retaining a different political character, the Baugeois region is basically right-wing now. Sarkozy won 53.4% in this constituency, though Hollande had the upper hand in two cantons which are in Angers'
suburban circle of influence. Rural cantons being quite right-wing, the right usually has the upper hand. Christian Martin (UDF) had a close call in 1997, winning with only 51.5%. He was succeeded in 2002 by Jean-Charles Taugourdeau (UMP, mayor of Beaufort-en-Vallée) who won over 62% in the 2002 runoff and won by the first round in 2007 with 52.4% of the vote... the Baugeois is no longer the republican stronghold of a hundred years ago! In that election, he had faced the then-PRG (ex-Green) mayor of Saumur Jean-Michel Marchand (who had won the 4th constituency in 1997, but lost in 2002) who took second with only 22.2%. Marchand is running again this time, but is in a much stronger position. Taugourdeau is running again, but there is an apparently very dangerous dissident candidacy by Frédéric Mortier, the DVD mayor of Longué-Jumelles. The talk is that a "triangulaire de la mort" between the two right-wingers, similar to what happened next door in 1997, could be fatal to the right and allow Marchand to win. I have my doubts...
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

4th (Saumurois, UMP): The Saumurois is traditionally conservative, but not in the sense of the Cholateais or the bocage angevin. Saumur itself voted for Sarkozy, as did the constituency as a whole (55.9%). This constituency was a big shock in 1997 when the Greenie Jean-Michel Marchand emerged as the surprise come-from-behind winner of a three-way runoff opposing two right-wingers who had been about tied for first in the first round. Marchand won with only 36.6% in the runoff, but he was elected mayor of Saumur in 2001. In 2002, the UMP's Michel Piron defeated Marchand in the runoff, with 58%. In 2007, Piron was reelected by the first round with 52.5%. Marchand lost Saumur to the right in 2008, after having joined the PRG. Marchand being out of the running here, Piron does not face serious competition on his right or left. Right hold, for sure.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

5th (Choletais, CNIP-UMP): The Choletais - of which this constituency covers only part - is the old reactionary/Catho/monarchist stronghold of Anjou. In that way, the fact that its deputy since 2002, Gilles Bourdouleix (mayor of Cholet) is the national leader of the old and very conservative CNIP (allied to the UMP) is strangely fitting. But the Choletais is also a very working-class region (textiles), which is of course not very apparent with its staunchly conservative voting patterns. Even though Hollande won Cholet proper, rural regions in this constituency remain right-leaning. Sarkozy won 'only' 51.2% in this constituency, though. In 2007, Bourdouleix won 56.3% in the runoff and he'd won his first term with 61.1% in the 2002 runoff. The PS has the same candidate as in 2007, and the MoDem is led by an old centrist opponent of Bourdouleix in Cholet city hall (Xavier Coiffard) who had won 16.2% in 2007. Bourdouleix does not seem very threatened, but I've seen stranger things.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

6th (Angers-ouest/Choletais, NC-CD): This is a polarized constituency, including the very leftie canton of Angers-ouest (59% Hollande) and the middle-class suburban canton of Saint-Georges-sur-Loire (51.6% Hollande) combined with very conservative and fairly working-class cantons of the Choletais (but Champtoceaux is suburbanizing). Hervé de Charette, a centrist who joined the UMP but is now the leader and sole member of Centrist Party #4587 (also called, for nerds, 'Convention democrate'), has been the deputy here since 1988. He won over 60% in 1997 and 2002 runoffs, but got a shabbier 56.7% in the 2007 runoff. Sarkozy won 53% here. This seat is moving left, slowly but surely. Hervé de Charette is running for a sixth term, and has the UMP's support, but faces a dissident candidacy from André Martin, a local mayor. The MoDem's guy is also a local mayor. The PS conceded this seat to the Greenies, in the person of Marianne Prodhomme, a local councillor in Angers. There is a DVG dissident candidacy, the PS' candidate in 2007. The left can certainly win here in a 1981-like vague rose (which, in passing, had not elected any leftie in the Maine-et-Loire back then...!), but it is a bit of a longshot and I'm not sure if a Greenie is in a position to do so. But if the right is badly divided, it is a distinct possibility.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

7th (Angers-nord/Segré, UMP): The Segré area has been a conservative stronghold, like the Choletais and the rest of the bocage angevin, for ages now. But the inclusion of two cantons of Angers (54% for Hollande in both), cantons which include some leftiezing (it's a new word, meaning 'shifting to the left'!) suburbs of Angers (Avrillé) and the presence of a tiny leftie working-class basin to the west of Segré has made this constituency more and more marginal. Sarkozy won only 50.9% of the vote here. The UMP incumbent here since 1988 is Marc Laffineur, an outgoing cabinet minister and ex-centrist. Laffineur won easily in the second round in 1997 and 2002, and won by the first round with 51.7% in 2007. He should be fine this year, though I am not sure what to make of the AC candidacy of a local mayor with MoDem support. The PS' candidate, who won 23.7% in 2007, is a local councillor in Angers. I have a hard time seeing this seat go anywhere as things stands, despite Sarko's weak margins 'round these parts.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

I've finding myself a bit too conservative (in both sense of the term!) in my predictions... hmm...

Anybody especially eager for me to jump around to other, more interesting, departments?

How about some Petite Couronne stuff, or maybe Seine-Maritime or Somme? :)

Sorry, but I'm a man of order ;D
Please first finish Pays-de-la-Loire. Then, you can err as you want around the map ;) For example in Normandies and Picardie: some constituencies are interesting.

Vendée: I agree with all your predictions.

Maine-et-Loire: OK on everything, but the 1st may tilt to the left I'm afraid. Bachelot isn't so strong any longer there and there can be an Ayrault and "moderate team" effect in the North-West, especially around cities.

Loire-Atlantique: I agree with everything. The 10th will be won by the left, that's my guess: it's gaining ground every day...

Well, the most important thing is that you finish this tour of France ;)
And as your comments on every constituency will make me happy... do as you wish :)

Mayenne
2007: 2 UMP, 1 PS

1st (Laval, PS)*: This seat, a weird rurban gerrymander reaching from the northeast of the department takes in most of Laval. It has gained Laval nord-est but lost Saint-Berthevin and Laval nord-ouest remains excluded from the constituency. There is a major political divide at work here, between the leftie parts of Laval and its inner suburbia, and the more conservative rural cantons (notably Evron and Pré-en-Pail). Though Laval has been voting on the left for quite some time now, the constituency remained more or less right-leaning until 2007. Between 1978 and 2007, the seat was held by François d'Aubert (UDF-DL), mayor of Laval between 1995 and 2008. However, in 2007, d'Aubert was toppled from his dominance (he had won by the first round in 2002) when he was defeated by Guillaume Garot (PS) with 50.6%. Garot went on to take the city of Laval from d'Aubert in 2008. Though rural areas remain right-wing, Hollande dominated throughout Laval and some newer suburbs in the canton of Argentré, to win 51.3% of the vote. Garot, the new PS baron in the conservative Mayenne (and also one of Royal's last soldiers) will win, not in a landslide because the redistricting has weakened him a bit and because the right has a high floor, but he should not worry too much. Especially now that the right is divided. The UMP is represented by local councillor Samia Soultani-Vigneron, but she faces a right-wing dissidence organized by the DVD CG/mayor of Pré-en-Pail whose suppleant is the DLR CG for Laval-est. There is also an AC candidacy in this department ruled by AC's big boss, Senator Jean Arthuis.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

2nd (Château-Gontier, UMP-RS^)*: This constituency has gained Laval's suburban Saint-Berthevin, but lost the rural canton of Loiron. The fief of Gaullist strongman Henri de Gastines between 1968 and 2002, this extremely conservative rural constituency in the old reactionary/Catho/chouan country of Château-Gontier and southern Mayenne (bocage manceau) has always been a stronghold of the right, where politics have opposed the Gaullist family to the centrist family. Sarko won 55.2% here. In 2002, the UMP's Marc Bernier won 52.1% in a runoff against a UDF candidate, the PS having been ousted by the first round. Same story five years ago: after a breezy first round, where Bernier took 43.3% to the Elisabeth Doineau (MoDem)'s 19.4% (the PS in third with 17.5%), he won the runoff by the skin of his teeth against the MoDem general councillor, with only 51.8%. Bernier, a villepiniste and sworn enemy of the other UMP deputy in Mayenne (Yannick Favennec), was forced to retire this year as the UMP was aiming to topple him anyway. A battle royal on the right is on the menu here. The favourite is Elisabeth Doineau, the MoDem's 2007 candidate who almost won. She has since joined Arthuis' locally dominant AC and is the favourite to win this year. She does not have the UMP's support - the UMP is supporting Guillaume Chevrolier, a little known local councillor who will get crushed in this battle royal. Her main rival will probably be Philippe Henry, the popular DVD mayor of Château-Gontier (who ran in 1997) whose suppleant is the DVD mayor/CG of Saint-Berthevin. The left will be kingmaker in a likely fraternal runoff between the right's families. The left could make the runoff, but it will be hindered by its division between a well-known EELV candidate, who is CG for Laval-NO, and a small town mayor who is backed by the PS. The left can make the runoff, but it cannot win it (save by a fluke).
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

3rd (Mayenne, UMP)*: This constituency gains Loiron but loses Laval-NE. This constituency has usually been a right-wing stronghold, though the fairly blue-collar city of Mayenne is left-leaning. Rural areas, however, remain extremely right-wing on the whole. In 1997, the UDF incumbent since 1981, Roger Lestas, won only 52% in the runoff against the PS mayor of Mayenne. But in 2002, the ex-DL UMPer Yannick Favennec imposed himself in a divided four-way first round fight on the right and defeated the same mayor with 58% in the runoff. Favennec has since built up his base and gained national notoriety has a straight-speaking maverick who has not hesitated to bash Sarkozy and wage a civil war against Marc Bernier. Favennec, a close supporter of Copé, is the big boss of the UMP fed in the department now. In 2007, he won reelection by the first round, with nearly 59%. He is the big favourite this year, facing no significant rivals on the right and on the left, only a small town mayor from the Greenies who is backed by the PS. The left's victory would be forcing Favennec to wait until June 17 to be elected.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

Sarthe
2007: 4 UMP, 1 PS

1st (Le Mans-centre et NO/Sillé-le-Guillaume, UMP): Le Mans is split into four different rurban constituencies, in line with French tradition. Hollande won 50.4% in this constituency, boosted by a big win Le Mans-NO (56.6%, parts of Le Mans - the uni I believe - with middle-class/public sector suburbs which went Hollande). Rural areas, especially Sillé-le-Guillaume, are far more conservative - western Sarthe is traditionally conservative, under the socio-economic and political influence of the inner west. This right-leaning seat resisted the red onslaught in 1981, 1988 and 1997 (right 56.1% in the runoff). In 2002, the longtime incumbent won by the first round while in 2007, Fabienne Labrette-Ménager won 56.6% in the runoff against a PS local councillor from Le Mans. Though Hollande won here, the right is likely solid enough here. The PS candidate is the same as in 2007.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

2nd (Le Mans-sud et est, PS): This is the most left-wing seat in the Sarthe, having given Hollande 58.4%, who won well over 60% in the three urban cantons of Le Mans, which are the low-income and most working-class place of the old industrial city. But he even won in the more affluent suburban Le Mans-est campagne and two exurban cantons. This has usually been a PS/PCF stronghold, falling to the right only in 1993 and 2000 (by-election). In 2007, the PS' Marietta Karamanli defeated UMP incumbent Jean-Marie Geveaux (who held the seat in 1993-1997 and 2000-2007) with 52.5% in the runoff. I don't even know who the right's candidate is here. Karamanli will win easily, but the FG could win up to 10% and the FN could make a nice showing, Le Pen having won 19% here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

3rd (Ecommoy/La Flèche, UMP): This is a fairly working-class rural/exurban constituency, except for parts of the canton of Ecommoy which are more suburban. But the eastern regions of the Sarthe are fairly anti-clerical and have a long history of republicanism and radicalism. Hollande won 51.4% here, doing well in Ecommoy, Pontvallain and Saint-Calais but narrowly losing in the cantons of Le Lude or La Flèche, among others. This seat went to the left in the waves of 1981, 1988 and 1997. But in 2002, the UMP's Béatrice Pavy easily took this open PS seat with 56% in the runoff and held on in 2007 with 55.2%. Running for a third term, she is vulnerable to the left. This constituency was 'given' to the Greens, which, of course, sparked a dissident candidacy which appears much stronger, led by the PS mayor of La Flèche, Guy-Michel Chauveau, who had held this seat between 1981 and 1993 and between 1997 and 2002. His suppleant is the CG for Ecommoy. This seat can obviously go to the left, and Chauveau is a good candidate, for me. A tight one, but I'd bet on the left here. Watch out for the FN in this seat, where Marion took 20%
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

4th (Le Mans-Sablé sur Sarthe, UMP^): This is Fillon's seat, left semi-open by his candidacy in Paris this year. Fillon has held this seat since 1981, replacing his political mentor, Joël Le Theule (who had held it since 1958) following Le Theule's death that year. Fillon had a close race in 1997, winning with 52.7% in the runoff. But in 2002 and 2007, he won by the first round, with 53.4% in 2007. This is not the usual state of things in a marginal constituency, which is very divided between the rural areas around Fillon's base of Sablé-sur-Sarthe and the working-class suburb of Le Mans, Allonnes, a PCF stronghold. Hollande won 52.6% in this seat, including over 60% in Le Mans-ouest and Allonnes, but also 56.5% in the canton of La-Suze-sur-Sarthe which is middle-class Le Mans suburbia. The right remains dominant in the three rural cantons. The left has *never* held this seat, but it might this year. The big race is between Agriculture Minister Stéphane Le Foll (PS), who ran and lost against Fillon in 2002 and 2007; and Marc Joulaud, the incumbent in this seat (Fillon's suppleant) and mayor of Sablé. Le Foll can benefit from the seat's left-leanings, and his stature as a cabinet minister. But Joulaud hasn't had his last word. In the expectation of a left-wing victory, however...
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)

5th (Le Mans-nord/Mamers/La-Ferté-Bernard, UMP): The left won this seat in the leftslides of 1988 and 1997, but it seems like a tougher proposition this year. Hollande won with only 50.6% here, thanks almost exclusively to Le Mans (and suburbanish Ballon). The rural areas have a left-wing tradition, but it is right/far-right leaning area now. Mamers is fairly working-class, but leans right, as does La-Ferté-Bernard. Marine Le Pen did very well in some rural cantons here, which are subjected more and more to exurban influence from Le Mans and the distant, very distant, influence of Paris which is beginning to be dimly perceivable here (thanks to the TGV). Jean-Claude Boulard, who is now the PS mayor of Le Mans since 2001, won in 1988 and 1997 but in 2002, the UMP's Dominique Le Mener won. He won a second term in 2007 with 55%. The race here is a third successive matchup against Christophe Rouillon, the PS mayor of Coulaines who lost in 2002 and 2007 to Le Mener. The FN might do well here, but no triangulaires.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

Orne
2007: 3 UMP

1st (Alençon, UMP^): The city of Alençon, historically pretty blue-collar (Moulinex), leans to the left (and, more recently, its inner suburbs do too) but the rest of the constituency, which takes in some rural and very conservative (and quite clerical) cantons of the bocage ornais, leans to the right overall. It has never elected a left-winger, and Sarko won 52.9% here despite losing badly in Alençon. The UMP's Yves Deniaud has been the incumbent here since 1993, and has since 1997 faced off with Joaquim Pueyo, who became the PS mayor of Alençon in 2008. Pueyo did well in 2007, taking 47.2% in the runoff against 52.8% against Deniaud, doing well in Alençon and his wider canton (Alençon-1). Deniaud is retiring this year, leaving his son, Bertrand Deniaud, as the UMP's candidate. But Bertrand Deniaud faces right-wing dissidents: Christophe de Balorre, a local DVD CG/mayor whose suppleant is also a CG. Pueyo is running for fourth time, boosted of course by his new political base in Alençon. The weight of right-wing rural areas remain important, but the division of the right could prove dangerous even if there is superficial unity in the runoff.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

2nd (Perche/L'Aigle, UMP^): Covering the very rural and conservative Perche ornaise, which has long been a conservative stronghold (note conservative and not reactionary), this constituency is, naturally, the most right-wing in the department. Sarko won 57.7% here. Even the main city, L'Aigle is right-leaning. The centrists held this seat since 1962, and the deputy until 2011 (and since 1993) was the UDF-UMP Jean-Claude Lenoir, reelected by the first round in 2007 with 54.4%. He is now a Senator since 2011, so his seat is open. The right is divided between the UMP's Véronique Louwagie, CG for L'Aigle-Ouest and Jean-François de Caffarelli, a DVD CG/mayor whose suppleant is also a DVD CG/mayor. The MoDem's 2007 candidate, who won 12.2% in 2007, is also in the running. The PS will lose big here, so their candidate is a sacrificial lamb named Souad El Manaa (they have Arabs in the Perche?). The FN is quite strong in the Perche. Marion won 22.9% this year and FN candidates won 17.1% in 1997 and 15% in 2002, and could make a strong showing this year too, but a triangulaire is fairly unlikely - didn't happen in 1997. I don't know who on the right will pull this off, but the right as a whole will win easily.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

3rd (Flers/Argentan, UMP^): This is the most left-wing seat in the Orne, covering the working-class (textile, railroads, metalworking) cities of Flers, Argentan and Tinchebray whose republican leanings were established by Siegfried over a hundred years ago. Hollande actually won here, with 51.6%, doing very well in Argentan (60%) and Flers (58%). The PS won here in 1988 and 1993, with the PS mayor of Flers. Since then, the right has been dominant. Sylvia Bassot has been the deputy since 1996, but she's retiring this year. In 1997, she narrowly beat the PS mayor of Argentan (who has since moved on to higher offices...) Laurent Beauvais with 51.3%, but in 2002 and 2007 she won by the first round, with 52.1% in 2007. The PS officially gave this seat to the Greenies, who turned around and backed a nobody with an Arab name. The main left-wing ticket here is led by Yves Goasdoué, the PS dissident mayor of Flers and CG for Flers-Sud. The right's candidate is Jérôme Nury, mayor/CG of Tinchebray. Goasdoué needs to do as well as Hollande did in Argentan (and Flers too) and not loose too badly in the rural areas and Tinchebray. He is definitely in a strong position to win.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

Awesome thread.

This thread is now our daily event, our daily much-awaited reading :)
Thanks a lot, Hash, sincerely.
I was too lazy to look for all the candidates in each constituency and you make most of the work: yeah !

---

I really think Orne will be wonderful to follow. My guts say that the 1st will be won by the left. The right is SO divided in Orne... Lambert himself has put a little mess, like Bassot and others in the recent past. In the 3rd, Caffarelli seems to be more efficient in his campaign and "UMP" isn't really a "plus" in this campaign, I think.

Sarthe: well, I agree with Hash. Chauveau will kill the Green and the right in the 3rd. And Le Foll will prevail: there is a big trend towards the PS here and I think that we may be in another case of switching legitimacy: people were happy to have Fillon, they will be fond of Le Foll... having a ministry in France's rural areas is still something for many people...

Mayenne: no big surprise here. In the 2nd, I don't know, really, though, of course, it will be one of the 2 strong DVD, not the UMP.

Oh, and back to Morbihan, I really think the right will keep the 4th, but with Bléher, not with Guéant Jr. of course (he is so bad... ::))

If Hash finishes all his predictions, I'll do also a map of mine (just with UMP, PS, DVD, DVG, FG and EE-LV), which will be as wrong as usual, but it's just for the pleasure of having fun, you know what it is ;)

Thanks again, Gaël, nous te sommes reconnaissant de nous distraire, au meilleur sens du mot ;)

It took time to read it, but it was worthwhile. :) I really hope you'll be able to cover all 577 races, even if a bit more succintly than you're doing now.

I'm starting to compile a little map based on your forecasts. Here's what it gives us so far :

()

Safe left : 24
Left favored : 1
Lean left : 2
Left : 27

Tossup - lean left : 5
Pure tossup : 4
Tossup - lean right : 6
Tossup : 15

Lean right : 6
Right favored : 5
Safe right : 7
Right : 18

The situation before the election is Left 23 / Right 36.

Thanks, Fabien (and Antonio!) :)

Manche
2007: 3 UMP, 1 PS, 1 DVD
 
1st (Saint-Lô, UMP)*: With the elimination of the old fourth constituency, this constituency gains the cantons of Sainte-Mère-Église and Montebourg. This is a right-wing stronghold, where the left-wing stronghold of Saint-Lô (big public sector, over 60% for Hollande) is overwhelmed by the conservatism of the rural areas. Sarko only won 50.9% here, in line with his terrible performance in the department. Hollande did well not only in Saint-Lô but also in some surrounding communities as well as Carentan, the constituency’s second smaller urban centre. Around Canisy, Percy or Tessy-sur-Vire, the Catholic conservatism unique to the bocage normand appears; while in the Baie d’Isigny (coastal Sainte-Mère-Église) the CPNT used to have a big local stronghold (it is a major hunting region with pissed off redneck hunters). In 2007, the UMP’s Philippe Gosselin won a first term with 57.7% in the runoff. In 2002, the long-time RPR incumbent won by the first round. The far-right has been strong here: Fernand Le Rachinel was the CG for Canisy for quite some time and he won 16.6% in 1997, 12.1% in 2002 and 6.8% in 2007. He has since left the FN and joined Carl Lang’s PDF, and managed to do not-so-terribly for a FN dissident in the 2010 regionals. Marine won 17.2% here. Gosselin is running again, and should win easily. The PS candidate is the CG for Saint-Lô Est. Fernand Le Rachinel is running for the PDF, so it will be entertaining to see whether he benefits from his strong local footing or he, as usually happens with his type, gets crushed by the FN.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe right
 
2nd (Avranchin/Bocage Normand, UMP)*: This constituency has only gained the canton of Granville. It remains one of the most right-wing constituencies of the region, covering the still very rural and extremely conservative cantons of the Avranchin and Mortainais in the wider bocage normand. In contrast to a fairly secular region, the bocage normand, especially in these parts, has been heavily influenced by the old Catholic/clerical and reactionary attitudes of the inner west and clericalism used to be solidly implanted. Sarko won 55.3%, pretty sh**t poor by local standards. Hollande even won Avranches and Granville. René André held this seat between 1983 and 2007, when the UMP decided to back then-cabinet minister Philippe Bas, who went up against the dissident UMP mayor of Avranches, Guénhaël Huet. The PS having been trounced early, with barely 14% in distant third, the runoff opposed Huet to Bas, who had been narrowly ahead of the former in the first round. Huet beat Bas decisively in the runoff, with 57.9%. Huet, now UMP, is running again. The PS is backing a PRG city councillor from Granville, but there is a DVG candidate who is a local CG. The MoDem is backing the CG/mayor of Brécey.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe right
 
3rd (Coutances/Valognes/Côtes du Cotentin, UMP)*: This constituency benefits from the elimination of the old fourth, gaining the cantons of La-Haye-du-Puits, Saint-Sauveur-le-Vicomte, Barneville-Carteret, Valognes, Bricquebec and Les Pieux. It lost Granville to the second. Even though Coutances is more left-wing and Hollande swept the three northernmost cantons in May (Valognes, Bricquebec and Les Pieux; the latter of which includes Flamanville), the right is usually dominant here. Rural areas tend to be very conservative, as do most coastal areas, some of which are more affluent because of the old people who live there for rather simple reasons. Hollande’s three cantons in the north here and falling under the growing influence of Cherbourg-Octeville. Sarko won 51.5% here. The incumbent in the third since 1988 is Alain Cousin (UMP), who won 60.5% in the runoff in 2007. The old fourth’s incumbent was Claude Gatignol, who opted to retire after being in office since 1988. Cousin is running again, facing only token opposition from a PS regional councillor. He will win easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

4th (Cherbourg-Octeville/Cap de la Hague): The new fourth is the old fifth, gaining Beaumont-Hague and Quettehou from the old fourth. It is still centered around the working-class city of Cherbourg-Octeville and its proletarian hinterland (Tourlaville, Équeurdreville-Hainneville etc), which has long been an isolated island of socialism – never communism – in a sea of conservatism. Hollande won no less than 58.1% here, including over 60% in Cherbourg-Octeville, Tourlaville and Équeurdreville-Hainneville. At the legislative level, since 1988, no incumbent has ever won reelection. The PS won it in 1988, lost it in 1993 but regained it in 1997 with the then-mayor of Octeville, Bernard Cazeneuve. In 2002, Cazeneuve, who had since become mayor of Cherbourg-Octeville in 2001, lost narrowly to the UMP Jean Lemière, who in turn lost heavily to Cazeneuve, who won 59%. Cazeneuve is now a junior minister, and he has been a very popular mayor of Cherbourg. The UMP putting up no significant opposition, Cazeneuve will win easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 

Calvados
2007: 3 UMP, 2 PS, 1 NC
 
1st (Caen-est, PS): This constituency covers most of the eastern cantons of Caen, its suburbs to its east and the suburban canton of Tilly-sur-Seulles. This is generally the more affluent, professional and bobo part of the city – though there are low-income inner city areas (cités) and more working-class or lower income suburbs (Fleury-sur-Orne, Saint-Germain-la-Blanche-Herbe). Usually, this is the more right-leaning of the two urban constituencies in Caen, but it voted for Hollande with 58.1%. Hollande won over 60% in Caen, which is fairly shocking (but not that surprising) considering that Caen is a fairly moderate and never really working-class place. A strong result which is, in this constituency, boosted not only by large-to-huge margins in Caen (67% in the low-income canton of Caen-9) but also by a nice win in suburban middle-class Tilly-sur-Seulles. At the legislative level, quite fittingly, the PS didn’t win here in 1988 but rather won in 1997 when Philippe Duron defeated a longtime UDF incumbent. In 2002, however, Duron was defeated in a very close contest by the then-UMP mayor of Caen, Brigitte Le Brethon. In 2007, Duron, by then president of the CR, took his revenge by defeating Le Brethon decisively (54.2%). This constituency is shifting leftwards extremely rapidly, going to a point where it’s gonna be about as left-wing as the second constituency. Duron, who defeated Le Brethon a second time in 2008 – to become mayor of Caen – is safe. The UMP has token opposition, and nobody else can mount a credible challenge.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Caen-ouest/Hérouville-Saint-Clair, PS): This constituency covers the more low-income parts of Caen and its less trendy suburbs, most notably the big ville nouvelle of Hérouville-Saint-Clair, which is by and large a low-income/inner city/cité populaire though with a tiny bobo/gentrification streak to it. It also includes the canton of Troarn, the western parts of which form part of an old working-class (the metallurgical industry) conglomeration (Mondeville, Cormelles, Giberville, Démouville). It is solidly left-wing. Hollande won 64.1% in this constituency, including 72% in Hérouville-Saint-Clair. Between 1973 and 2002, this area was represented by Louis Mexandeau, the old PS strongman in the Calvados and the eternally unsuccessful rival of the right for Caen’s city hall. In 2002, however, he was defeated by the new young UDF mayor of Hérouville, Rodolphe Thomas, who had taken the PS stronghold thanks to the left’s local troubles and divisions. In 2007, Thomas, while a strong candidate for this sector, was unable to resist Laurence Dumont, the former PS deputy for Bayeux, who won with 54.6%. This year, Dumont should win rather easily. However, she faces some not-so-useless opposition in Rodolphe Thomas (now MoDem), who won reelection to his city hall in 2008 very easily  and had a huge favourite son effect going on for him in Hérouville in the 2010 regionals when he took 39% in his city. Thomas doesn’t have UMP backing, they preferred some no-name, but he is a very strong “right-wing” candidate and can do very well for a right-winger in Hérouville. Dumont will win, but it could be by a surprisingly thin margin.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Auge-sud/Lisieux/Falaise, NC)*: This constituency gains the solidly conservative canton of Cambremer. This is a politically divided constituency, where the old political/economic/geographic divide noted by Siegfried in 1910 between the plaine de Caen and the Pays d’Auge remains quite visible. The two cantons of the plaine, Bretteville-sur-Laize and Falaise (nord, sud), are solidly left-wing (59%, 58% and 57% for Hollande). The plaine, a country of agglomerated settlements (as opposed to the dispersed populations of the rest of the department) and historically a fairly poor rural area with a large mass of poor (some landowning) peasants and rural workers, has been politically different for quite some time. Old mining villages but also suburban growth in parts of Bretteville-sur-Laize contribute, today, to the left-wing leanings. Hollande also won Mézidon-Canon (whose chef-lieu is a cité cheminote) and Lisieux-2. The Pays d’Auge remained right-wing, as ever. Hollande took 51.4% overall. This seat invariably switches to the left in the leftslides. In 1988 and 1997, the PS won, with Yvette Roudy both times. In 2002, the UDF’s Claude Leteurtre won a three-way “primary” in the first round and then soundly defeated the PS in this seat left open by Roudy’s retirement. In 2007, he won reelection with 52.8%. A third successive rematch this year will oppose him to Clotilde Valter, PS CG for Lisieux-2. Panzergirl having won 20.5% here, the FN might make its mark here. Given the seat’s history and the chance of a leftslide, I would perhaps place my bets on Valter this year.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
4th (Trouville/Côte Fleurie/Auge-nord, UMP)*: This seat loses Cambremer and gains Ouistreham. For those who are remotely familiar with the name Trouville, they will not be shocked at all to learn that this seat is the right-wing stronghold of the Calvados. Sarko won 54.8% here, and nearly 67% in the canton of Trouville-sur-Mer. Generally, the wealthy/old people chique coastal resort towns of Trouville, Deauville and so forth  politically dominate over here, helped out by the conservatism of the more rural cantons including Pont-l’Evêque. Honfleur is more marginal, while the canton of Cabourg is divided between a right-wing coast and the very left-wing working-class hinterland of Caen (Colombelles, old bastion of the metallurgical industry in Caen). Ouistreham, recently added, posts a similar divide. In Dozulé, the PCF stronghold of Dives-sur-Mer is a lone island of red in a sea of blue. This was Michel d’Ornano’s seat between 1967 and 1991, and Nicole Ameline (UDF, UMP) has been victorious since then. In 2007, as in 2002, she won first round reelection with 53.4%. She’ll win easily this year, against a PS candidate who is something like 21.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe right
 
5th (Bayeux/Bessin-nord, UMP^)*: This seat loses Ouistreham, thus solidifying it for the right. Hollande won with only 50.1% here, doing rather well in Bayeux but also in Balleroy (old mining villages) and especially Creully, where he split evenly with Sarko in Caen’s wealthiest middle-class suburbs. Rural areas of the Bessin, especially around Isigny, remain quite right-wing. The right has usually dominated here, in the person of the old Normand notable François d’Harcourt between 1973 and 1997, until d’Harcourt was defeated out of the blue in 1997 by the young Socialist Laurence Dumont, who won 51.1%. When she moved to run in Caen with Mexandeau in 2002, the UMP’s Jean-Marc Lefranc was able to easily trounce a Green candidate in 2002 and win reelection in 2007 with 55.7%. Lefranc is retiring this year, leaving the right divided. The UMP’s candidate is some local councillor in Bayeux, while there is a much stronger DVD candidacy by the DVD mayor of Bayeux, Patrick Gomont. The PS conceded this seat to the Greens, as in 2002, which is hardly a smart move in a place where CPNT used to be quite important. The EELV-PS candidate faces a dissident candidacy by the DVG CG for Creully. The redistricting probably makes a 1997 a bit harder here (you’d need to check the 1997 result without Ouistreham, which went big to Dumont), and Gomont is a good candidate who can reduce the leftie vote in Bayeux. I would err towards the right here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
6th (Vire/Bocage virois/Bourguébus, UMP): Hollande won 54% of the vote here, in a weird constituency which takes in the canton of Bourguébus (plaine), a lower middle-class suburban canton of Caen and a leftie stronghold, but also Évrecy (wealthier Caen suburbs, 55% Hollande) and parts of the Bocage virois and Bessin, including Vire or Thury-Harcourt and Condé-sur-Noireau. The left is benefiting from suburbanization in Villiers-Bocage and Thury-Harcourt, plus the old working-class city of Condé-sur-Noireau. The bocage virois around Vire remains more rural and conservative, with some old clerical undertones. This seat was traditionally right-wing, until 1997 when the PRG's Alain Tourret narrowly defeated the UDF regional president, René Garrec, with 50.6%. In 2002, however, Tourret lost heavily (45.4% in the runoff) to the UMP's Jean-Yves Cousin, mayor of Vire. Cousin won a rematch in 2007 with 54.8% in the runoff. This year is another matchup between Cousin and Tourret, who is once again backed by the PS. This is certainly Tourret's best chance since 1997, and the big leftie trend here since then helps him out lots.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)

With the new redistricting, Manche is as boring as Orne and Calvados are interesting.

Well, in Calvados, it will be very suspenseful.
In the 2nd, I completely agree with you: Thomas is a very strong opponent though the result isn't in doubt. But maybe we'll be surprised and Thomas' anomaly will end this year. Thomas is abit like Jean-Christophe Lagarde in Drancy, in a way :P, though, sociologically, it's not the same population.
In the 3rd, Sainte-Thérèse won't make a miracle: your fine analysis of this constituency is damn right: another switch to the left in sight.
In the 5th, I can't believe a second the left could win: it's Bayeux after all... But in 1997, how was it possible ? So, a big, big surprise may occur again, I agree. What makes me more comfortable is that Gomont is a far better candidate for the right than the ageing d'Harcourt back in 97. Plus another constituency stupidly given to the Greens :P

Thanks again for these very fine comments.
In the 6th, I would have said: "obvious gain for the left", but Tourret isn't the best candidate, I think; he is a bit old now. Nevertheless, the trend is deep towards the left.

Eure
2007: 3 UMP, 1 PS, 1 NC

1st (Evreux-sud/Plaine de Saint-André, UMP): This is a solidly right-wing constituency, mixing the southern and eastern cantons of Evreux (a left-leaning city, ruled by the PCF between 1977 and 2001) with some rural cantons in the Plaine de Saint-André and the Pays d'Ouche. Siegfried who had described the Radicalism of the plain would hardly recognize it today, because a lot of the cantons between Evreux and the Yvelines border have become a kind of weird bastard region mixing Paris and Evreux suburbia. Pacy-sur-Eure's area is more of a well-off, upper middle-class and conservative exurban type, but around Saint-André, Damville and Nonancourt, where the FN does better, we're into some less previleged and more protest-inclined 'periurbain subi' zones. Clearly, we're crossing into "eastern France" at this point, noticeable by the suburbs becoming more right-wing. Sarkozy won 55.8% here, but Marine won 22.9%. The FN won 18.4% and 14.8% in 1997 and 2002 respectively. This was Jean-Louis Debré's seat between 1988 and 2007, one of two seats not to fall to the left in 1997. In 2007, the UMP's Bruno Le Maire easily succeeded his mentor, taking 58.3% in the runoff against Anne Mansouret, perennial candidate of the left. He should hold on this year too, but faces a slightly more threatening rival in the figure of the new PRG mayor of Evreux (since 2008), Michel Champredon, backed by the PS.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

2nd (Evreux-nord/Brionne/Neubourg, UMP): This constituency includes the two other cantons of Evreux, a bit more right-leaning but also reaches in a weird shape to take in Brionne, Le Neubourg and Rugles at opposite ends of this disunited mess. Brionne is part of the southern end of a series of what Americans could describe as 'mill towns' along the Risle, and it is a left-wing/PCF stronghold. Hollande won 51% in the canton, but 58% in the city of Brionne. Le Neubourg is the heart of a wealthy rural region, which is obviously more exurban nowadays, it is very right-wing. Rugles is a rural canton, while the other regions mix old blue-collar towns with newer, lower middle-class exurbia which is prime FN territory and fairly mixed otherwise. Sarko won 52.5% in this constituency, which voted for the PS in the leftslides but has been held by the ex-mayor of Evreux Jean-Pierre Nicolas since 2002. He beat the incumbent with only 50.7% in 2002 and his 53% in 2007 was not anything to write home about. The FN won up to 17% in 1997 (22.3% for Marine), and the PCF retains a presence here. A triangulaire with the FN is possible but not that likely. Nicolas faces a tough contest from Jean-Louis Destans, the PS president of the general council.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

3rd (Lieuvin/Bernay/Pont-Audemer, NC): Sarko also won 52.5% in this seat, held by Hervé Morin (NC) since 1998. While Pont-Audemer and Montfort-sur-Risle are left-leaning working-class areas (Pont-Audemer is a majorish old industrial centre, Montfort-sur-Risle has mill towns along the Risle); the area around Bernay and the Lieuvin in general has a political feel which is conservative, similar to that of Lower Normandy just next door. The left last held this seat between 1971 and 1986, but has not won it under its current boundaries, even in 1988 or 1997. Morin won 61.9% in a 2002 runoff and won by the first round in 2007, with just above 50%. While he will likely need to wait out until June 17 to win again, in part because the FN (Marine 22.7%) could do particularly well (a triangulaire is possible, but not that likely), Morin's opposition is too weak and divided (like in 2007, two PS candidates) for him to be seriously threatened.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

4th (Louviers/Roumois/Vallée de la Seine, PS): This constituency, which gave Hollande 51.3%, has been held by the left - in the person of François Loncle - since 1981 with the exception of 1993-1997. This is an old working-class constituency, covering the industrial and blue-collar cities of Louviers, Alizay and Gaillon in the Eure or Seine valleys, plus the low-income working-class 'new town' of Val-de-Reuil (over 70% for Hollande!). The left has declined in this constituency, likely the victim of suburban and exurban growth from Rouen and Paris. The FN and PCF both have bases in this constituency. In 1997, the FN won 20% and got a triangulaire, but it only won 14.8%. Loncle isn't a particularly strong incumbent at this point, being threatened in 1997, but he won 53.5% 2007, but he's been there long enough that he has a personal vote of kinds (Sarko won the constituency in 2007). He is not threatened this year, the UMP backing a NC regional councillor. There's talk of a triangulaire here, but the FN's gains here since 1997 haven't been as impressive as elsewhere.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

5th (Vexin Normand/Les Andelys/Vernon, UMP): The Vexin Normand is a tad isolated from the rest of the Eure, and forms a unique geographic entity. It has been under Parisian influence for a long time, but today it's basically an exurb of Paris filled with people who wake up early and commute to the Centre of the Civilized World. There are some old working-class areas in the valley around Fleury-sur-Andelle, in addition to Gisors, a railroad depot/factory town and PCF stronghold. But the rest is exurban, though Vernon is a growing young middle-class town, with some affluent suburbs. The FN is very strong here, Marine won 24% and was only 3 votes behind Hollande for second place. At the presidential level, the left is getting increasingly weaker here. Sarko won 53%. In 1997, the FN placed second behind the incumbent RPR with 21.3% and this was one of the famous 'triangulaires de la mort', resulting in the PS' victory (certainly boosted by the PCF, which took 17.7%). PS deputy Catherine Picard lost to the then-mayor of Les Andelys, Franck Gilard (UMP) who took 53% in the 2002 runoff and proceeded to win 56.2% in 2007. The left is in a weak spot this year, as the seat was given to EELV but the only main dissident is Anne Mansouret, a perennial loser (and isn't she the mother of DSK's rape victim #4564?). The FG's candidate won't be, like in the past, the popular mayor of Gisors. There's a big chance that the FN will make the runoff in one way or another, but even if it is a triangulaire, the left doesn't seem strong enough for there to be a big chance of a triangulaire de la mort. Besides, Gilard, being a Droite pop tool and all, could feasibly gain a lot of Marine votes - exurban FN voters are much more easier for the UMP to get than pissed off "ploucs" in the Pas-de-Calais. Furthermore, Carl Lang, the anti-Panzergirl/Megret 2.0 far-right village idiot, is running here for the PDF (he's from here, iirc) so he could do pretty well and spoil frontiste chances to make the runoff in one way or another.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

Eure has a good suspense in the 2nd: I think Destans, who is highly "visible", will be able to win in the end, because he is also competitive in rural areas. This constituency is reall a small world by itself.

Otherwise, I agree.
The 5th (great comments, Hash ;D) might have been a duel UMP-FN, but Carl Lang (indeed born in Vernon, but who had a long electoral past in Lille and Nord) may prevent it from occurring (though he'll probably grasp only 2 or 3%). We'll see.

Eure-et-Loir
2007: 3 UMP, 1 NC
 
1st (Chartres, UMP): This constituency has had a rocky history since 2007. In 2007, the UMP mayor of Chartres won reelection by only 59 votes. In 2008, his election was invalidated and the PS won the ensuing by-election by a comfortable margin. But only a few months later, the PS incumbent saw her election invalidated, and Gorges, fresh from a somewhat surprising reelection in Chartres, won back his old seat in the second by-election. Chartres has a long Socialist history, but the region has shifted to the right (alongside the whole department) as old traditions died out in the face of exurban growth from Paris. Sarko won 52.8%, narrowly losing in Chartres but holding up well in its affluent suburbs and raking in strong performances in the most affluent communities in the cantons of Maintenon and Nogent-le-Roi, both of which are by now very much Parisian suburban sprawl. The left held this seat between 1978 and 1993, notably with the PS mayor of Chartres, Georges Lemoine. Lemoine won again in 1997, but in 2002 he was defeated by the new UMP mayor of Chartres, Jean-Pierre Gorges, who took 54.3% in the runoff. In 2007, hurt by bad transfers from the MoDem (18.2%), Gorges won by only 59 votes (50.1%). In the first 2008 by-election, the PS’ Françoise Vallet won with 55.3%, benefiting again from the strong MoDem, at 18.5%. But a few months later, Gorges, fresh from defeating a PS-MoDem team in the municipals in Chartres, won the second by-election over a divided PS (Lemoine ran as a DVG dissident), but his 50.9% in the runoff was paltry compared to the 47.8% he raked in the first round. Gorges is running again, and faces his unsuccessful PS rival from 2008, David Lebon. This will be another close call. Gorges won narrowly in the fairly leftie climate of fall 2008, and this seat is generally shifting away from the left. But he is not particularly strong…
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
2nd (Dreux/Drouais, UMP^): This seat and its main city, Dreux, are names which ought to ring bells to anybody with a good knowledge of recent French political history. The working-class city of Dreux, home to industries and new population of immigrants from North Africa in the 1960-1970s, was a left-wing stronghold until an infamous 1983 local by-election which is recognized as the FN’s first emergence (who said local by-elections were not important?!). That year, in a by-election, the FN list led by Jean-Pierre Stirbois won 16% of the vote and merged with the RPR list to defeat the outgoing PS incumbent. This controversial alliance would end as soon as 1989, but until 1998, the Drouais and the city of Dreux more particularly remained a FN stronghold. This constituency, left-leaning until the 1980s, was won by the RPR in 1988 but in 1989, Stirbois’ widow Marie-France Stirbois won a legislative by-election and became the only FN deputy in that legislature following Yann Piat’s defection. Stirbois was defeated handily in 1993 by the RPR’s Gérard Hamel, but as late as 1997 she made the runoff against Hamel, taking 43.8% (31.4% in the first round) in that duel runoff against him. However, Stirbois left town in 1998 and the local FN collapsed in 2001, unable to run a list in the local elections. It still won 18.5% in 2002, when Hamel crushed the PS with 62.6% in the runoff. In 2007, the FN polling only 7.8%, Hamel won another term with 60.4%. Sarko won 52.3% in the runoff and Marion won 21.8%, but did poorly in Dreux proper. Dreux itself has realigned of the left, Hollande won 63% there. But the right remains strong in the rest of the constituency, a mix of affluent Parisian sprawl (canton of Anet) and exurban/old rural cantons where the FN does well. Hamel is retiring this year, and the UMP is backing the CG for Anet, Olivier Marleix – yes, the son of that scumbag. The PS candidate is a local councillor in Dreux, Gisèle Boullais. Everybody’s favourite moronic douchebag, Dieudonné – who ran an anti-FN campaign here in 1997 and won 7.7% - is running as the “Anti-Zionist” candidate. The FN could make a triangulaire here, but I would bank on a straight UMP-PS fight in the runoff, in which the UMP is probably favoured.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
3rd (Nogent-le-Rotrou/Perche, UMP): This seat, which gave 52.5% to Sarko, covers the fairly blue-collar cities of Lucé and Mainvilliers in Chartres’s suburbs and reaches all the way out to Nogent-le-Rotrou and rural areas of the Perche. While Lucé and Mainvilliers are left-leaning, Nogent, despite a RadSoc tradition still kicking, leans to the right while the rural/exurban areas of the constituency are very right-wing (and also love ‘em some FN, Marion won 21.5% here, over 25% in two cantons). This seat went to the left in the leftslides of 1988 and 1997, but also in a 2003 by-election. In 1997, the PRG mayor of Nogent François Huwart benefited from a triangulaire with the FN, narrowly beating the UDF incumbent while the FN pulled 16.2% in the runoff (but 19.9% in the first round). In 2002, Huwart lost to the guy he had won against in 1997, but this time in a traditional two-way runoff in which the UMP won 53.1% (and the FN 16% in the first round). In one of those traditionally fatal Eure-et-Loir by-elections, Huwart won back his seat in 2003 with 55% in a runoff against the UMP alone. In 2007, things shifted back against Huwart, who lost 53-47 to the UMP’s Laure de la Raudière. This year, the contest opposes Huwart’s son Harold Huwart to Laure de la Raudière. The FN has the same candidate as in the past three elections, and could stage a triangulaire, potentially fatal to the UMP.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
4th (Châteaudun/Beauce, NC): The Beauce, a wealthy countryside region and national wheatbasket, is nowadays far more of a suburban and exurban region for Paris than anything truly rural. It is not really privileged suburbia at this point, but more of a périurbain subi/poorer lower middle-class exurban sprawl of horror type of sprawl. More distant regions of the Perche remain more traditionally rural and more isolated than most of the Beauce in this constituency. Though Châteaudun voted for Hollande, this is largely a conservative bastion. Sarko won 56.5% here, but Marine’s 23.3% was her strongest performances in the department. The exurban horror and rural areas where nobody wants to live is perfectly suited to the modern FN. Indeed, her best cantons were in the Perche and in the Beauce which is closest to Ile-de-France. Politically, this seat has usually been a right-wing stronghold, but in 1997, the Greens, with Marie-Hélène Aubert, benefited from a weakened incumbent who was unpopular with his own party, and won 52.5% in this right-wing bastion. In 2002, however, things normalized as the fluke conditions of 1997 were no more (there was also an airport extension issue at stake in 1997), and the UMP’s Alain Venot won 58.5% in the runoff against Aubert, who had placed third behind the UDF’s Philippe Vigier in the first round. In 2007, with Venot retiring, Vigier (NC) won by the first round with 57.1%. Vigier is running again, facing a EELV regional councillor backed by the PS. The FN could make the triangulaire (or even duel) here, but the FN votes in these areas had a strong Sarkozyst temptation in 2007 and could flow back to the right in a legislative election scenario.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

Seine-Maritime
2007: 5 UMP, 5 PS, 2 PCF
 
1st (Rouen, PS)*: This constituency, between 1986 and 2009, was composed only of the city of Rouen. This year it gains the canton of Mont-Saint-Aignan but loses Rouen-6, so a more marginal canton replaces a left-wing stronghold. However, the city of Rouen, the city of Jean Lecanuet and usually a stronghold of moderate centre-right parties, has been shifting left very rapidly. A normal evolution, of course, for a city which is fairly middle-class, educated and with a big population of researchers, young professionals and middle-class families – though Rouen certainly has its share of HLMs and proletarian neighborhoods. In 2008, the PS’ Valérie Fourneyron, who is now a cabinet minister, defeated the incumbent UDF mayor Pierre Albertini by the first round, a year after she had won a seat which had voted for the right even in 1997. Hollande won 56.2%, an excellent result which had him carrying even Lecanuet’s bourgeois canton of Rouen-2 and the traditionally right-wing bourgeois canton of Mont-Saint-Aignan (though only because of the other city in that canton, which is most certainly not bourgeois!). The addition of Mont-Saint-Aignan, whose chef-lieu is an old very affluent and conservative suburb of Rouen, might have been a ploy to turn this seat blue, but you can keep dreaming, especially given that the UMP lost the city of Mont-Saint-Aignan to the PS. Fourneyron will win reelection easily. The UMP is backing a no-name from the NC. In 2007, she had won 55.2% in the runoff, gaining an open seat held by the UDF.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Darnétal/Bois-Guillaume/Bray, UMP)*: This seat expands into rural Bray to englobe Gournay-en-Bray, Argueil and Buchy while losing Mont-Saint-Aignan. It is a composite defended by the former UMP mayor of Mont-Saint-Aignan, Françoise Guégot. Composite is a nice way to describe this thing. Bois-Guillaume-Bihorel is a very affluent bourgeois suburb of Rouen, as are parts of the cantons of Boos and Darnétal. But Darnétal, Saint-Léger-du-Bourg-Denis and parts of Boos are old working-class industrial cities, which still retain a large low-income population of manual workers. The added parts of the Bray, especially out there in Gournay-en-Bray, are solidly conservative but also increasingly distant exurban (Paris/Oise/Rouen etc) territories where the FN does very well. Sarko won 53.6% here (against 51.2% for Guégot in 2007 in the old constituency), in a place where Guégot benefits from the redistricting-induced expansion of her constituency into rural Bray. The FN is strong in parts, but Marine only got 17% and will not likely force a triangulaire. The PS conceded this seat to EELV, and there appears to be no major PS dissidence here. The right will likely win, but a left-wing victory could be possible in the eventuality of the leftslide being a 1981 crush-everything-on-its-path tsunami rather than a more modest 1988-1997 win.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
 
3rd (Sotteville-lès-Rouen/Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray, PS^)*: This constituency gains Rouen-6. This is solidly left-wing constituency, and a working-class area to this day. Sotteville-lès-Rouen has some refineries, while Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray is a large cité cheminote with a large railroad depot. Politics here are best defined as intra-left: Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray is a PCF stronghold, while the slightly less working-class Sotteville-lès-Rouen has usually tended to be a PS base, especially in recent years. Mélenchon placed a distant second here, with 18.4%. Hollande won 68.3% of the vote in the runoff! The PS has held this seat for ages, but it did lose it in 1993 – to the PCF. Besides that episode, since 1981 it has been held by Pierre Bourguignon, who won uncontested in the runoff in 1988 and 1997 because the PCF, placing second, dropped out of the running. In 2002, he won 64.3% against the UMP and 66.9% in 2007. Bourguignon was defeated for renomination this year, losing to Luce Pane, mayor/CG of Sotteville-lès-Rouen whose suppléant is the mayor/CG of Petit-Quevilly. The main opposition here won’t be the right – the UMP is backing a NC nobody – but rather the FG/PCF, which won 20.6% here in 2007 with Hubert Wulfranc, the mayor/CG of Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray, who is running again this year. Local dynamics indicate that the PS is the favourite. Anyhow…
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
4th (Lololand/Grand-Quevilly/Grand-Couronne/Elbeuf, PS)*: This constituency gains Maromme. Above all, this is Lololand – Laurent Fabius’ constituency, held without interruptions (well, save for his hundred stints in government) by Lolo since 1978 (and has been held by the PS since 1958). It is a continuation of the third constituency, though with some areas which are more wealthy suburbs than proletarian dumps. Grand-Quevilly, Grand-Couronne and Elbeuf concentrate heavy industry, such as petrochemicals or manufacturing, while the newly added canton of Maromme/Canteleu consists of two “mill towns” in a valley. The PS dominates over the PCF here, which only finds a stronghold in Grand-Couronne. Elbeuf, historically a place with lots of Alsatian immigrants, is working-class but has always preferred a moderate tone of socialism, hence why the PCF is hardly strong there. Hollande won 63.9% here. Fabius won 67.5% in the 2007 runoff, after getting 49.9% in the first round. Lolo could win easily by the first round, but there’s a chance that the PCF mayor of Grand-Couronne, Patrice Dupray, could do better than in 2007 (7%) while the FN candidate, Nicolas Bay, is not a nobody. Anyhow…
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
5th (Packing the Lefties/Vallée de la Seine/Lillebonne etc, PS)*: This seat loses Maromme but gains Lillebonne. This, my friends, is an example of packing. All cantons in here are solidly left-leaning, so Hollande took 56.5% here. This includes refineries around Lillebonne/Notre-Dame-de-Gravenchon, working-class places such as Caudebec-en-Caux (old shipbuilding industry, I think), and some old mill towns/cotton industry towns in the valleys including Duclair but also Notre-Dame-de-Bondeville, Malaunay, Barentin and Pavilly. Sarko only won a handful of affluent communities in the Seine valley area and some rural plateau areas in the Cauchois parts of this packing the lefties country. The PS has long been dominant in this area, where the PCF and FN do wellish but aren’t really “strong”. Christophe Bouillon won this seat in 2007, replacing a PS incumbent who had held on since 1981 – even in 1993. He won 60% in the runoff, under different boundaries naturally. He will win easily again this year in this tailor-made seat. The UMP’s candidate is some nobody.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
6th (Pays de Bray/Dieppe/Eu, notional UMP)* : This is our first ‘weird’ seat resulting from the redistricting. It combines the eliminated 11th and 12th constituencies, keeping all the cantons from the 11th but removing the cantons of Gournay-en-Bray, Argueil, Buchy, Saint-Saens, Bellencombre and Longueville-sur-Scie which were in the old 12th. The result is a composite constituency, uniting the conservative and rural Bray with the more left-wing and working-class Bresle valley and Dieppe. Hollande won 50.9% here, on the back of big wins in the industrialized Bresle valley and the PCF bastion of Dieppe, while Sarko easily dominated in the rural/exurban/poor Bray, where Marine did very well (22.8% overall in the constituency). The fight this year is a beautiful battle royal. First of all, two incumbents in this seat which would have been notionally UMP in 2007: Sandrine Hurel (PS), incumbent in the 11th, who won the seat with 52.2% in 2011, and Michel Lejeune (UMP), incumbent since 2002 in the 12th, who won 52.5% by the first round in 2007 - in a seat which had been held by the PS (Alain Le Vern) in 1993! On top of this matchup comes Sébastien Jumel, the PCF mayor of Dieppe and the young rising star in the party (hence, the PCF's candidate for every elective office imaginable). He had run in the 11th in 2007 and won 20%, and the PCF held the 11th between 1997 and 2002. However, while he is very popular and has a notable local effect around Dieppe, the new constituency is way too big for him to stand a serious chance at beating out the PS for second place (and hence to get the left-wing 'berth' in the runoff). Panzergirl won her best result here, 22.8%, so maybe watch out for the FN. Hurel should probably win.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured (kinda GAIN)
 

7th (Le Havre-ouest, UMP)*: Compared to the old 7th, it gains Le Havre-7 and Montivilliers while losing Le Havre-4. This constituency includes, except Le Havre-7 and the town of Montivilliers (a lower middle-class suburb of Le Havre), the most affluent and/or bourgeois parts of Le Havre in addition to the chic Victorian seaside suburb of Sainte-Adresse. Hollande won 51.7%, having performed quite well even in the more middle-class parts of Le Havre which were assumed to be fairly solidly right-wing, plus a narrow win in the canton of Montivilliers and dominance in Le Havre-7. The incumbent here is the new UMP mayor of Le Havre, Édouard Philippe, who took this seat when its deputy died in March. He faces the 2007 PS candidate in the seventh, Laurent Logiou (43.6% in the runoff), a regional and local councillor. The FG's candidate is Nathalie Nail, the PCF CG for Le Havre-7. The presidential results indicates that the race might be closer than expected in this seat, which had been the only seat to remain right-wing in 1988. Philippe is likely the favourite, but an upset is not to be ruled out.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
8th (Le Havre-est/Gonfreville-L’Orcher, PCF)*: A tailor-made seat for the PCF, which is a compensation for the loss of one of its two seats with the redistricting (the old 6th constituency being eliminated). This seat takes in the PCF strongholds of the old 6th and 8th constituencies. Compared to the old 8th, it gained Gonfreville-L'Orcher and Le Havre-2 while losing Le Havre-7. This includes both the working-class and low-income neighborhoods of Le Havre proper, plus the very working-class (refineries) town of Gonfreville-L'Orcher, one of the last "true" PCF strongholds in France. A tailor-made seat, thus, for the PCF: 20.1% for Mélenchon, then 64.2% for Hollande. The old incumbent from the 8th, Daniel Paul, in office since 1997, is retiring in favour of the incumbent for the old 6th, Jean-Paul Lecoq, who had managed to gain the old 6th from the UMP in 2007, with 51.1% in the runoff. Lecoq is the PCF mayor of Gonfreville-L'Orcher since 1995. He should very easily, even in the presence of a PS candidate.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
9th (Fécamp/Bolbec/Pays de Caux, UMP)*: This seat loses Montivilliers but gains Saint-Romain-de-Colbosc and Bolbec. Hollande won 51.4% here, doing very well in the working-class canton of Fécamp (56%) and the textile town of Bolbec (canton: 56%). Sarkozy's performance in the rural areas of this cauchois seat were hardly impressive, even if the seat was likely created with the aim of making it a more right-leaning seat. The incumbent is Daniel Fidelin, CG for Montivilliers. He faces a tough contest from Estelle Grelier, a PS MEP and unsuccessful 2007 candidate (46.8% in the runoff). If the left wins this year, I have a hard time seeing this seat not go leftie. Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
10th (Pays de Caux, UMP)*: This seat gains Saint-Saens, Bellencombre and Longueville-sur-Scie. Hollande narrowly won with 50.1% here, doing well in some lower-income and somewhat ruralish cantons along the coast (Fontaine-le-Dun, Cany-Barville, Saint-Valery-en-Caux, Doudeville etc) which are left-leaning for a reason which is still a bit foreign to me - iI think these might be in the industrialized valleys of the Caux, which have always been more left-wing. Sarko generally won the more rural, inland (plateau?) cantons. The defending incumbent is Alfred Trassy-Paillogues (UMP), mayor/CG for Yerville, who, like in 2007, faces the Socialist CG for Fontaine-le-Dun, Dominique Chauvel, who won 44.9% in the runoff back in 2007. I don't know enough about this seat to form a more detailed commentary, but the incumbent likely has a small edge here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

Since I'm probably going to vote tomorrow myself, I figure I could preview "my" constituency, where I know a bit more about the local campaign (unlike in the other places):

1st French abroad (Canada-United States, notional UMP): Sarko won 53.6% (turnout 38%) in this constituency, a win due entirely to his landslide with French people in Murica, where Poison Dwarf took 61.3%. He only lost to Hollande in N'awlins, two offices in NYC (I've been told in Williamsburg...), Portland, two out of three offices in San Francisco, Berkeley and Rollingwood (??). On the other hand, Hollande won 55.8% in Canada, losing in Calgary and one office in Toronto. The UMP was originally suppose to run Christine Lagarde here, but the IMF is a way better gig. Instead, the UMP officially endorsed a carpetbagger, Frédéric Lefebvre, an outgoing secretary of state (for tourism iirc) who had been suppleant for Santini in Hauts-de-Seine 10th. Lefebvre is a type A partisan hack, who is pretty much an all-out moron (he also looks like one) who is still really smug and arrogant. He has no political talents to speak of, and got this far only because he's one of Sarko's top ass-lickers, alongside other Mensa Club members like Estrosi or Morano. I think the UMP did this just to piss me off. Fortunately, it also pissed off a lot of right-wingers, who wanted in on the job. His most prominent opponent is Julien Balkany, the brother of Patrick Balkany, a criminal who is mayor and deputy in the Hauts-de-Seine (and a close ally of Sarko, generally). Julien is an idiot who is some trader or investor in New York (hence, a criminal, like the family), whose rhetoric is based on him actually living here. Then there's Antoine Treuille, who is apparently NKM's uncle, and who is the candidate of the "droite modérée et solidaire", who lives in the states and who spammed my inbox for months. The 'ARES' candidate is Philippe Manteau, who is running as a classical liberal (in the economic sense) and talks about free enterprise and quoted Senile Ronald (Reagan) in his mailer a few months ago. Further right you get Gérard Michon, who is a member of the AFE, and who seems to be a crazy old man running some Gaullist campaign which involved, before the runoff, some weird deluded rantings about Hollande being a liar and evil person and a bunch of other anti-PS hate mail. Then there's JJSS's son, Emile Servan-Schreiber, who is running a fairly bland centre-right campaign about "open democracy" and "open economy". For good measure, there is a MoDem candidate, a FN candidate and a LaRouchite.

As I supposed, the UMP started panicking at the sh**tfest going on in the right here, so I recently got a really serious email from Jeff Copé informing me that Fredo was the only legitimate UMP candidate and that everybody should vote for him. I don't know what happened behind the scenes, because Fredo started sending me six zillion emails per day when I had barely heard from him twice in like six months. I guess that he had forgotten what he was doing.

On the left, besides a FG candidate, the PS and EELV back the candidacy of Corinne Narassiguin, a member of the AFE who lives in New York and who has some private business background. Narassiguin ran a very strong and active campaign, which was based a bit on her actually living in North America. The PRG, apparently deciding to be useful for once, ran female candidates in all 11 foreign constituencies, including Stéphanie Bowring, who is half-Newfie.

On the topic of which, CSA apparently did a poll here (n=1717):

Narassiguin (PS-EELV) 35%
Lefebvre (UMP) 19%
Balkany (DVD) 9%
Servan-Schreiber (DVD) 7%
Treuille (DVD) 6%
Granade (MoDem) 4%
Savreux (FN) 4%
Clement (FG-PG) 3%
Michon (DVD) 1%
Manteau (ARES) 1%
Clayette (Pirate) 1%

Guess who I'm going to vote for!

Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

I would guess PRG, if not, PS-EELV.
If you decided to vote for the right, perhaps Servan-Schreiber, which is the only you seem to not hate.

Perhaps a Pirate protest vote?

Back in France...

Charente-Maritime
2007: 3 UMP, 2 PS

1st (La Rochelle, PS^): La Rochelle is a left-wing stronghold, which has both a long Radical and republican (somewhat Protestant-influenced) tradition and history, and demographics which are favourable to the left (urban, mix of industry/administration-social etc/uni). Between 1971 and  1999, La Rochelle was held by Michel Crépeau (PRG), who transformed La Rochelle into a mini-PRG stronghold, still visible even in 2012. Hollande won 55.6% here, a result made more modest by Sarko winning over 60% on l'Île de Ré, an affluent resort island filled with old people. Hollande won all municipalities in the mainland part of the seat, including 62% in La Rochelle. Crépeau held this seat between 1973 and 1999, losing only in 1993. After his death in 1999, he was succeeded in both his offices by Maxime Bono (PS), who won 55.1% in 2007. Bono is best known for being one of Segogo's last remaining loyal supporters. Therefore, when Segogo wanted to run for a seat (and could not run in her old seat), Bono didn't protest too much when she took this seat. However, while Segogo has the backing of Solférino (more because Hollande and Maaaaartine are keen on shutting her up and are ready to acquiesce to her demand of getting the presidency of the Assembly, a nice useless plum post) and of Bono, her carpetbagging of sorts wasn't well received by the local structures all that well. She faces a dissident DVG candidacy from Olivier Falorni, the number one in the Charente-Maritime PS and La Rochelle local councillor. Segogo is likely the favourite on the left, because of her stature and institutional backing. But this race isn't over... it is only over in the aspect that the PS will hold this leftie stronghold easily, and the media narrative about the Segogo-Falorni fight will crush the UMP's Sally Chadjaa, a regional and local councillor. Everybody should be hoping that Segogo loses, of course.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

2nd (Aunis/Rochefort, UMP): This constituency covers La Rochelle's suburbs (including working-class Aytré), parts of the Marais Poitevin, parts of the ruralish Aunis and Rochefort. Hollande won 55% here, doing well in the fairly low-income and working-class city of Rochefort, but also in the more industrialized cantons of Aigrefeuille-d'Aunis and Surgères, suburban La Jarrie and Aytré. The PS gained this seat in 1997 with Bernard Grasset, who is now mayor of Rochefort (since 2001). He defeated long-time UDF incumbent Jean-Guy Branger. In 2002, his retirement allowed Jean-Louis Léonard, the former deputy for the first constituency until 1997, to win back this seat for the right. He won reelection with only 220 votes in 2007, or 50.2%. He goes up against the PS mayor of Aytré, Suzanne Tallard, but there is a dissident DVG candidacy with the PS CG and mayor for La Jarrie. Despite the division of the left, I believe, in this year's climate, that the UMP is likely doomed here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)

3rd (Saintonge/Saintes, PS): This constituency's main city is Saintes, a poor and historically working-class Socialist stronghold. Hollande won 54.7% in the constituency, but won 57.5% in Saintes. Rural areas tend to be a bit more marginal, but even then, this is a traditionally republican and anti-clerical region, which has left its mark on the political orientation of some rural cantons in these parts. Hollande won all the cantons in this constituency, like in the second. At the legislative level, no incumbent has won reelection since 1988. The left won it in 1988, 1997 and 2007 but lost it in 1993 and 2002. Xavier de Roux (UDF, UMP) held the seat in 1993 and 2002, but in 2002 he lost to Catherine Quéré, who took 52% in the runoff. This election will be the first since 1988 in which de Roux isn't a candidate, which means the right has no strong contenders besides a NC and UMP local councillors. The left will hold on easily here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

4th (Haute-Saintonge/Royan-est, UMP): Sarko won 51.9% here, doing best in the coastal area south of Royan which is an affluent touristy place, attractive for retirees and the like. More rural parts of the Haute-Saintonge (Jonzac etc) are more left-leaning, perhaps because they are poorer, not touristy, more isolated and still maintain the old left-wing anti-clerical traditions quite prevalent in these areas. The left held this seat in 1988 but after losing it in 1993 to Dominique Bussereau, it has failed to regain it. Bussereau won with 51.1% in 1997, but in 2007 he won by the first round with 51.7%. Strong from his stature, the fourth will remain Bussereau's stronghold. The left lacks a strong candidate.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

5th (Royan-ouest/Oléron, UMP): The safest seat for the right in this department, Sarko having won 55.1% of the vote here. The core conservative bastions of Royan and the touristy resorts of the coast, plus the island of Oléron, exert strong political influence here. The left has some strength in the northern parts of this constituency, which belong in the Rochefortais rather than in the Royan-Oléron ensemble. The left has never won this seat, held since 1997 by the UMP mayor of Royan, Didier Quentin. Quentin won 53.5% in the first round in 2007. Though Quentin is not extremely popular as mayor right now, he is not seriously threatened. He faces the PRG CG/mayor of Saujon, who is backed by the PS. Quentin will not win by the first round, but he will win fairly comfortably in the runoff in this rock-solid UMP stronghold.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

If I want to do all 577 seats, I will need to do shorther and more concise profiles, thus cutting short discussion of regional voting patterns in these seats; and keeping to big trends and the 2012 races.

I recommend this: don't shorten your profiles, just do as much as you like. Don't feel that you have to do all 577. I would much rather read detailed profiles on those seats which you think to be most interesting. You're doing us a wonderful favor by writing these - but it should also be enjoyable and interesting for you. :)

I don't agree on one point ;) : it would be a pity not to do all the 577 !

But, of course, you may be (far) shorter on safe or near-safe seats and on constituencies where sociology and boundaries haven't evolved a lot.
Let's concentrate on possible triangulaires, on new constituencies, on areas where demographic and sociological trends ahev shifted or fastened in the recent years.
I guess it's the same conclusion as homely: they are the constituencies that are more interesting for you to write on.

I'm with Fab : I want to see the prediction for all 577 constituencies !

Who wou;dn't love to see all 577! This has been my daily treat... but i agree, you could quickly skim the safest seats and focus on the more interesting battles, the possible triangulaires, the "leans, toss-ups, non-incumbents/retiress".

fantastic work! and the map that someone has been building is just icing on the cake, who dosen't like a visual representation of this!

Thanks! and keep it up

http://www.elections-legislatives.fr/index.asp

At last, all the candidates are available on this fine interactive map.

Deux-Sèvres
2007: 3 PS, 1 UMP
 
1st (Niort/Gâtine, PS)*: This seat gains Coulonges-sur-l’Autize, Chamdeniers-Saint-Denis, Mazières-en-Gâtine and Secondigny. Niort is an old Socialist stronghold (it has been governed by the PS since 1957), in good part due to Niort being home to so many insurance mutual (mutuelles d’assurances) which have made the city quite famous and oriented towards the “social economy”. Hollande won 60.9% here, dominating in Niort and its middle-class suburbs. The incumbent here is Geneviève Gaillard, PS mayor of Niort and deputy since 1997. She won 48.6% in the first round in 2007 and 65.2%. The expansion of the seat likely precludes a first round victory, but she will crush the right – whose candidate is a no name – in the runoff.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Parthenay/Plaine Poitevine/Ségolinie, PS)*: Gains Parthenay, Thénezay and Menigoute. It is a fairly incoherent mess, uniting some suburbs of Niort with Parthenay (but excluding some its semi-suburban cantons) with the plaine, which includes Ségogo’s stronghold of Melle. Hollande won 59% here, doing very well in the niortais suburbs, little industrial Parthenay and Ségogo’s strongholds in the plaine – which, as an aside for our dear little clueless journalists, does not vote left-wing only because Ségogo is from there – the plaine has a long republican and anti-clerical tradition. Nothing shocking about it being so leftie nowadays, though I’ll admit it has shifted left a lot since the 1980s. This constituency, like the first, includes parts of the old third, which was the right’s last stronghold in the department, its incumbent (now retiring) having held the seat since 1993 and winning it by the first round five years ago. The second’s incumbent is junior minister Delphine Batho, who has turned out to be a surprisingly competent and intelligent despite being a Ségoliniste (yeah, I know, shocking). Since Ségogo couldn’t turf Batho to run in her old seat, Batho is running for reelection. This old second has been held by the left since 1988, even in 1993. Batho won 57.4% in 2007. This year, she faces the NC mayor of Parthenay, backed by the UMP, who in a year like 2007 might make this a close race but who will lose handily in 2012.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Thouars/Bressuire/Bocage Vendéen, PS)*: The old fourth is the new third, it gains Moncoutant, Airvault and Saint-Loup-Lamairé. Hollande won only 51.2% here, because despite dominating in the cité cheminote of Thouars – with 62%, the small industrial town of Cérizay (home to the Heuliez electric car, which I know only because Ségogo’s character in Les Guignols had a funny skit about the Heuliez) and even Bressuire; this constituency still includes the last vestiges of the solidly conservative regions of the bocage, an extension – politically, socially, economically and so forth of the bocage vendéen next door. The north-south divide it more or less created is hardly visible anymore, but still rears its head from time to time. The fourth constituency used to be a right-wing stronghold, until in 2007 the PS’ Jean Grellier narrowly and surprisingly defeated the UDF-UMP incumbent since 1993, Dominique Paillé (best known as Dodo; or the perennial election loser since 2007). Grellier should be safe, he faces the UMP mayor of Moncoutant.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

Charente:
2007: 2 PS, 1 DVG, 1 UMP
 
1st (Angoulême, PS)*: The new first, which is really an example of how to do a coherent redistricting, includes all of Angoulême (divided in two in 1986) plus the suburban cantons of Soyaux, La Couronne, Ruelle-sur-Touvre, Le-Gond-Pontouvre. This is a left-wing stronghold: Hollande won 61% here, boosted of course by Angoulême but also by its suburbs – both some low-income deprived places like Soyaux but also its more middle-class suburbs. It is hard to draw comparisons with the 2007 results, because the old first and eliminated fourth constituency have changed considerably since then. This year, Martine Pinville, PS incumbent in the old fourth – a seat she won comfortably in 2007 as a dissident local candidate against the official PS candidate, Malek Boutih, is running in this constituency. There is a chance that she could win by the first round. The UMP took some young woman as its candidate. No other serious candidacies.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Cognacais/Montmorelien, PS)*: The old second gains Chalais, Aubeterre-sur-Drone, Montmoreau-Saint-Cybard, Blanzac-Porcheresse and Villebois-Lavalette. Under new boundaries, Hollande took 54.8%, his tightest result out of the three constituencies. Indeed, this region of Charente - the Cognac/Segonzac area to be specific has always been the most right-leaning region of the department since the 1980s. The wine country south of Cognac, which is quite wealthy, has usually tended to vote for the right, providing the UMP with its only somewhat solid base to speak of in the very leftist Charente. Hollande still won Cognac and Segonzac, but Sarko won his best performances in the Cognacais region. On the other hand, the addition of cantons which lie closer to the Périgord and the Limousin in terms of political traditions has served to weaken the right. The UMP last won the old second in 2002, but in 2007 it lost it to the PS’ Marie-Line Reynaud (who had already won in 1997), who took 52.8% in the runoff. Reynaud faces a local mayor from the UMP and the departmental boss of the MoDem, CG for Segonzac. Against such opposition, the PS faces no trouble holding on here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Confolentais/Ruffecois, PS)*: I’m too lazy to list all the new cantons in here, suffices to say that it includes Confolens and its region, Ruffec and its region, some suburbs of Angoulême which aren’t in the first (cantons of Hiersac, Saint-Amant, La Rochefoucauld). Hollande won 60.5% here, doing best in the Confolentais (the Charente limousine), which is closer to the political traditions of the Limousin than anything else. The Confolentais has always been the most leftie region, with an old but almost dissipated PCF base. The Ruffec area is less impressive in its margins for the left, but still a left-wing country. A mix of old traditions (radicalism, anti-clericalism), economic conditions (poverty, isolation, light industries and resource extraction) and newer factors (WWII resistance stronghold) informs the leftist traditions of this region, like in the Limousin. Jérôme Lambert, related to Mitt’rrand himself, has been the PS deputy since 1988 save for 1993. In 2007, he won 44% in the first round and 61.6% in the runoff. He’s running for reelection and only faces mayor of some kind backed by the UMP. The FG could be a presence (12.2% Mélenchon).
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 

---

Vienne
2007: 3 PS, 1 NC
 
1st (Poitiers-nord, PS)*: This seat loses Vouneuil-sur-Vienne. The constituency remains a largely urban/suburban constituency, containing the bulk of Poitiers’ northern neighborhood and suburbs. It includes some lower-income cités in Poitiers – though Poitiers overall is a fairly middle-class white-collar city – but also some more middle-class white-collar suburbs, including two communes home to the Futuroscope which has made this region quite famous. Poitiers, like other cities in western France: economically more optimistic, at the centre of a strong and growing urban agglomeration and large populations of public sector employees or salaried middle-classes (and bobos, but people like to think that 95% of those who vote for the left are bobos) have been shifting rapidly towards the left. Since 1997, this seat has been held by Alain Claeys (PS) – mayor of Poitiers since 2008, the sole leftist who survived the Raffarin-induced blue wave in 2002. In 2007, he won 59.1% in the runoff, a bigger margin than in 1997. Hollande took 60.4%. Claeys will have no trouble holding a seat which has been held since 1988, save for 1993, by the PS.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
                       
2nd (Poitiers-sud, PS): Hollande took 59.6% in this constituency, which covers southern Poitiers and its suburban surroundings. Like the first, this urban seat has been shifting leftwards quite rapidly. Hollande won the bulk of the most affluent middle-class suburbs of Poitiers, often by quite comfortable margins. Once again, the mix of populations here – some cadres, salaried middle-classes, generally well-educated, young families and so forth is all favourable to the “modern” PS. These are, like in other parts of France we’ve looked at thus far, the “integrated” suburbs which are well-off, economically optimistic and not as concerned about the day-to-day future as the “marginalized” suburbs and exurbs. Thus, even if the right won here in 1988 and most recently in 2002, it seems impossible for the UMP to win here this year. The PS won with 51.5% in 1997, but in 2007, Catherine Coutelle (PS) defeated a sitting UMP incumbent with 55.1% in the runoff. Coutelle will win handily this year, her UMP opponent is a regional councillor.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Montmorillon/Pays de Brandes, PS)*: This seat gains Vouneuil-sur-Vienne. This seat is increasingly coming under Poitiers’ circle of influence, with cantons like Lusignan, Gençay or Couhé including some suburban communes. However, the rest of the constituency remains composed of more isolated small towns and ruralish areas, some of which are old industrial centres. The left is usually strong in most of these rural cantons, especially in Chauvigny, Lussac-les-Châteaux or L’Isle-Jourdain, for reasons which are quite foreign to me, but likely related to the anti-clerical and Radical traditions in this part of the world, and the influence of Limousin which is perceptible in the far south. Hollande won 55.3% in this seat, which has been held by the PS since 2007, for the first time since 1981. The PS won very narrowly in 2007, with 50.1%. In a slightly better scenario for the right, it could regain this seat. This year, the right seems to lack a strong candidate, allowing PS incumbent Jean-Michel Clément to win reelection.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured
 
4th (Châtellrault/Loudun, NC): The south of the department has shifted left, but the north of the department – included in this constituency – has shifted right. This is also where the FN is strongest (21.3% for Marine). The north, with the major industrial basin of Châtellrault, has usually been more urbanized and industrialized than the south. It is not a very rich region, and it is disadvantaged and marginalized as a sort of “bastard” region which is, with a few exceptions, not entirely urban but not entirely rural. There is a strong exurban influence here, and the population is drawn to surrounding cities and towns: Saumur, Thouars, Poitiers, Châtellrault, Loudun or Tours. The old industries in parts have declined, leaving a fairly low-income exurban/declining rural population of employees and manual workers. Politically, Loudun and the entire north of the department is quite right-wing, while blue-collar Châtellrault is more left-leaning. It was ruled by the PS between 1977 and 2008. Hollande won 53% here. At the legislative level, this is generally UDF country – or rather, Abelin dynasty country. The incumbent here since 1993 is Jean-Pierre Abelin (who had also served 1978-1981), whose father was deputy between 1962 and 1974. Jean-Pierre Abelin has held this seat since 1993, when Edith Cresson (PS) retired. He won by a tiny margin in 1997 but in 2007 he took 56.6%. In 2008, Abelin conquered Châtellrault, his family’s old stronghold between 1959 and 1977, though he only did so because the left was divided in the three-way runoff. Though Hollande’s victory in this constituency with 52.5% makes this race close, Abelin is likely helped by the divisions on the left spawned by the deal with EELV, which ‘gets’ this seat. There is a dissident DVG candidacy by the PS CG for Châtellrault-sud and mayor of Naintré. Abelin will probably win narrowly.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

I completely agree with you on Charente-Maritime (will Royal prevail ? well, now that Mélenchon, Guaino and others have paved the way in far worse manners, her own "parachutage" may be safer than I thought initially) and Seine-Maritime (even the 9th is lost for the right here, for sure... I just hope the 7th will be OK for the UMP, but Edouard Philippe has a personal bonus).

As for Eure-et-Loir, I think Gorges qill be beaten in the 1st. The national mood isn't good for the right and it's always very short here, so... I even expect the 3rd won't have a triangular, because that would mean another loss for the UMP. OMG...

Charente is boredom country...
Deux-Sèvres, well... is boredom country too... when you think about the results of the right here in the 1970s... argh...

In Vienne, it's possible for the left to gain all the four constituencies. But, sure, in the 4th, divisions are high inside the left. I think the Green candidate may prevail, but will she have enough support from her own allies in the second round ? Maybe some socialists will vote for moderate Abelin in the 2nd round... And with a big abstention, why not a second round Abelin-FN ?
It's a fascinating race. I agree with you in the end: slightly lean Abelin.

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May I suggest that Indre-et-Loire and all the Picardie are interesting ?
But, of course, Limousin would be quicker to do ;)

One comment on my blog compares you to a mad nerd and to a God ;D
If you don't do the 577 after that... :D

Oh, and I change my prediction for Côtes-d'Armor, 3rd: I think the PS will prevail.
But I keep Le Guen winner in Finistère (I just can't believe he too will lose... no more rational than that in a way :P)

Question: Could a Ayrault effect happen in the Loire-Atlantique legislative races, or that kind of things isn't happening on that side of the Atlantic?

Nope. Because people don't vote for him directly.
The constituencies that will predictably be won by the right will be won anyway.
But, in the constituency on which I disagree with Hash, well, why not ? Just to make me right, for once ;D

Indre-et-Loire
2007: 3 UMP, 2 PS

1st (Tours, PS)*: This constituency gains Tours-nord-est, meaning that only Tours-nord-ouest is not included in this seat representing Tours. While the left's performance in the rest of the Indre-et-Loire has been anemic as of late, Tours has been shifting at a mad pace to the left, in line with other cities in the region, for reasons touched on previously. Tours is a pretty middle-class white-collar town nowadays, with its share of HLM-dominated neighborhoods, bobo central areas and old bourgeois areas. Hollande won 56.9% of the vote here. At the legislative level, Tours was the stronghold of my political hero, Jean Royer, between 1958 and 1997, who served as mayor of the city between 1959 and 1995, when he was defeated by the Socialist Jean Germain, who has been mayor since. Royer certainly won here because of his image as an independent maverick and competent manager, because his moralf****try wasn't suited, sociologically, to Tours. In 1997, Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres, who became Chirac's culture minister, narrowly won the race to succeed Royer. In 2007, however, Donnedieu de Vabres' time had run out and he narrowly lost (51.1% vs 48.9%) to Jean-Patrick Gille (PS). In 2001 but again in 2008, his attempt to knock out Germain proved an epic fail. Gille should hold on very easily in this leftist stronghold, now. He does face a slightly high-profile UMP candidate, Guillaume Peltier, the ex-FN and ex-MPF young kid who ought to run in better places if he wants to get a real political career. Peltier had run here in 2007, for the MPF, and won 5.9% (and then 8.4% in the 2008 locals). For the UMP, Peltier almost knocked off a PS incumbent in Tours-Sud in the 2011 cantonals. Peltier is an ambitious rising star who is also annoying (like all young rising stars, I guess), but he'll lose badly. Run in Montaigu.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Amboise/Montlouis-sur-Loire, UMP)*: This seat loses Tours-nord-est. Sarko narrowly won here, with 50.6% here. This constituency is heavily suburban: almost all communes here are in the greater commuter belt of Tours, and in turn it is generally pretty affluent throughout. The left is strong in Montlouis-sur-Loire, a middle-class canton in the outskirts of Tours, and finds some strength near Amboise. Most of the seat, however, is suburban or exurban, thus leans to the right. Michel Debré lost in this constituency back in 1962, but his son Bernard Debré won here in 1988. But he lost a 1995 by-election to the PS mayor of Montlouis, Jean-Jacques Filleul, who won again in 1997 but lost to Claude Greff (UMP) in 2002. In 2007, she won reelection with 54%. She is running for a third term, after a brief stint in cabinet. The PS gave this seat away to EELV in their deals, a bonehead choice for a constituency to give to the Greenies, and resulted in a dissident candidacy from a PS local councillor in Montlouis. The EELV candidate is Christophe Rossignol, a regional councillor. The FG is running the PCF mayor of Chateau-Renault, a little working-class town in the far north of this seat. Greff is likely the narrow favourite, but her defeat in the eventuality of a 1981-like wave is not out of the question. For now, she can hope to benefit from the left's division.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
3rd (Loches/Montbazon/Saint-Pierre-des-Corps, PS): This constituency goes from the far south of the Indre-et-Loire, takes in Loches and Tours' outer suburbs (Montbazon, Chambray-les-Tours, Saint-Avertin) and finishes its trail in Saint-Pierre-des-Corps, right outside Tours. The sprawling seat is both suburban, well-off and right-leaning around Saint-Avertin, Montbazon, Chambray-les-Tours; a bit more divided in rural areas which include some left-leaning small industrial towns (Descartes, Ligueil) but then extremely working-class, solidly left-wing and low income in Saint-Pierre-des-Corps, a cité cheminote right outside Tours and historic PCF stronghold (even today: Melenchon took 24%, Hue in 1995 probably did even better). Hollande won 51.79% here, but he would have lost the seat had it not been for his super-duper margin in Saint-Pierre-des-Corps (73.3%). Since 1997, the fight here has been between the PS' Marisol Touraine, daughter of Alain Touraine, president of the CG and new cabinet minister; and Jean-Jacques Descamps, who won in 1993 and 2002. She won 53.5% in 1997, lost in 2002 but won by a tiny margin (which would be gone, again, if it wasn't for some 70% in cheminot land) - 50.2%. On paper, this should be a target seat for the right, but I doubt Touraine will lose in a year like 2012, especially that she's in government now. She faces the NC-UMP CG for Grand-Pressigny . The PCF won over 11% in 1997 and 7.5% in 2007, but mostly because its candidate then was Marie-France Beaufils, the mayor of cheminot land and nowadays Senator. The FG is running the CG for cheminot land, who probably won't do as well as Beaufils could. Touraine should win without sweating too much.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured

4th (Joué-lès-Tours/Chinon/Azay-le-Rideau, UMP): Hollande won 52% in this seat, boosted by a strong performance in the two extremities: Chinon and the surrounding nuclear power plant (Avoine), where the PS usually performs strongly, and Joué-lès-Tours, a slightly more deprived suburb of Tours where Hollande took 56%. Up until Azay-le-Rideau, the Loire valley is largely a suburban area for Tours, and is more or less right-leaning. Other rural areas also tend to the right, but not uniformly and not overwhelmingly, at least in 2012. Since 1958, this has been a bellwether: a Gaullist stronghold between 1958 and 1981, then gained by the PS in 1981 and held in 1988, gained by the liberal Hervé Novelli in 1993, who lost to the PS in 1997 (narrowly: 49.2%) but won again in 2002 and 2007 - with 53.7% in 2002 and 52.6% in 2007. In 2002 and 2007 he won against Philippe Le Breton, the PS mayor of Joué-lès-Tours who is not running this year. Instead, Novelli, the leader of the UMP's so-called reformist or liberal right-wing, will face Laurent Baumel, the PS mayor of Ballan-Miré, an affluent suburb of Tours. This is a very interesting race, both because the constituency has been a "show-me constituency" since day one, but also because Novelli is a fairly high-profile guy in the UMP (though is influence is minimal). The trend against him is pretty heavy here, at least based on the May 6 results which remain a good indicator in these type of urban/suburban constituencies where "favourite son" and personality boosts are less important than in more rural constituencies when often vote more on the person. For now, I'd pin Novelli down as the underdog against a leftie favourite.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)

5th (Saint-Cyr-sur-Loire, UMP): Except for the cantons of Chateau-la-Valliere and Bourgueil, this is almost entirely Tours suburbia, the biggest town in this is Saint-Cyr-sur-Loire, the most right-wing major city in the department. Saint-Cyr-sur-Loire is an affluent suburb of Tours and UMP base, as are other affluent inner suburbs in the canton of Luynes and Neuille-Pont-Pierre. Besides the blue-collar town of Langeais on the banks of the Loire, the "rural" parts of this seat are all fairly right-leaning. Sarko won 52.5% here, his best result in the department. Since 1993, the seat has been held by the UMP's Philippe Briand, mayor of Saint-Cyr-sur-Loire. The PS won here in 1988 but lost narrowly to Briand in 1997. Claude Roiron, the former PS president of the CG (and CG for Tours-nord-ouest, a leftie canton of Tours which is the only canton of Tours not included in the first constituency), lost thrice here, most recently five years ago when Briand won 55.4% in the runoff. She is running again this year, with the PS CG for Luynes as her suppleant. This seat is vulnerable, but it seems a bit out of reach for the left in these national conditions, but who knows. Briand can probably hold on once more, perhaps a repeat of 1997 (50.5%).
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

BTW, I just voted, through the internet, in my constituency. The internet system works fairly well and looks quite secure. I ended up voting for Stéphanie Bowring, the PRG candidate. Lol.

Pfffuuuu... I was a bit afraid you might have ended with a damn stupid Pirate vote ! :P ;)
Well, PRG has always been a classy vote.
As a born again Catholic, of course, I won't have the opportunity to vote for the PRG, ever (except if it's Baylet vs Le Pen in 2017 :P). But, well, for me, it's all nostalgia of Fabre, Crépeau, Abadie, Schwartzenberg, Doubin, Charles, Hory, Collin, Alfonsi(s), Huwart, Zuccarelli(s), Baylet,...

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Glad to see that you've been able to talk mostly about Jean Royer :D

In the 2nd, well, I hope Greff will see the FG candidate beat the "PS-diss." and the Green ones. But I'd give her a slight advantage, too.
In the 3rd and the 4th, it's over for the UMP: Baumel is a strong PS candidate and he has the right profile for this constituency; Touraine will benefit from her new media visibility.
I agree also on the 5th: Roiron is out of date now.

Overall, Indre-et-Loire will be a very pleasing department to follow.

:)

BTW, I love your typos, Hash:
- a Canadian one with Châtellrault, without the "e" after the double "l",
- but, far better, Villiers-Bocage is amazing... Villers-Bocage is not the fatherland of Villiers, but, indeed, the latter is so stuck to the bocage ;D

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Apart from Picardie, if you are fed up only to follow a geographical continuity, Ile-de-France and big departments (Pas-de-Calais, Nord, Rhône, Loire and especially Bouches-du-Rhône) will of course provide some interesting situations. But I think Lorraine and Languedoc will be thrilling in some constituencies (Yonne, Doubs and some foreign constituencies too).

Somme
2007: 2 NC, 1 PS, 1 PCF diss, 1 UMP
 
1st (Tom DeLay Memorial Constituency/Amiens-nord/Abbeville, Stalin United FC^)*: This is quite a marvel of gerrymandering we have here. The old first was already bad enough of a blatant gerrymander, but this is a true work of art. It loses Amiens-ouest but gains Domart-en-Ponthieu, Ailly-le-Haut-Clocher and the two cantons of Abbeville. The aim of this gerrymander is to pack the main left-wing strongholds into a single constituency. It takes in the quartiers populaires in the north of Amiens, even circling down to eastern Amiens to take in the cité cheminote of Longueau in Amiens-4, then it connects with Abbeville, a poor blue-collar city in the Baie de Somme region, connecting the two with the very leftie cantons of Domart-en-Ponthieu and Picquigny (poor cantons with an old industrial base, including textiles, in places like Domart or Flixecourt). Only Ailly-le-Haut-Clocher, an old centrist fief, leans to the right in a constituency which gave Hollande 59.5%. Marine won 23.2% here, not doing swellingly in the Amiens inner burbs but doing strikingly well in places like Domart-en-Ponthieu and Picquigny, filled with declining poor industrial areas and with manual workers who find themselves attracted to urban areas. Between 1993 and 2011, the old first – which retained a strong PCF base in Picquigny and Amiens – elected the charmingly mad Stalinist Maxime Gremetz. In 2007, Gremetz, who turned increasingly mentally unstable and in his later years (to the point of looting another PCF deputy’s office or physically assaulting someone), had a falling out with the PCF which had enough of his Stalinist antics, so he ran for reelection as a dissident, facing PS and PCF opponents. He beat the PCF candidate by about ten and the PS by about five, and won reelection with a huge 59.3% in the runoff. He resigned his office in 2011. Being a safe leftie seat, it held a lot of promise for a lot of people, and created a huge sh**tfest in the PS. We had rumours about the mayor of Abbeville, but then Jack Lang, and then Hollande’s ally Faouzi Lamdaoui before pissed-off Aubry threw a hissy fit at Hollande and got one of her drones, Pascale Boistard, a local councillor… in Paris. Her main rival could be the FG, led by the PCF mayor of Camon with the PCF CG for Picquigny, who could benefit from the carpetbagging of the PS. The FN could get a triangulaire here, but in the end, the left will win – and while I would err cautiously and predict a PS win, the FG isn’t out entirely (but it will likely require placing first among the left).
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Amiens-sud/Boves, NC)*: This seat gains Amiens-ouest, the result is to make it dangerously marginal for the right (Amiens-ouest, held by the Commies, went 62% to Hollande). Hollande won 54.5% here, doing best in the parts of Amiens included in this seat. Only Amiens-6, which includes the most affluent neighborhoods of the city, and suburban Boves which includes like the only affluent suburbs in the department voted for Sarko. The old second has been won by the right since 1988, and until 2007 it was held by Gilles de Robien. In 2007, he was succeeded by Olivier Jardé, CG for Boves. Jardé won 52.8% in the runoff. This constituency was given to EELV by the PS, but there seems to be no dissident DVG candidacy here. Even if Hollande won here, I don’t really think that the left can win here with a Green candidate. It is the ‘greenest’ constituency in the Somme, but that’s not saying much, of course. In the end, I would think that Jardé will win narrowly, but I can’t count out a EELV win here entirely
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
3rd (Vimeu et Ponthieu, UMP): A totally reshaped constituency, it loses Hornoy-le-Bourg but gains Nouvion, Rue and Crécy-en-Ponthieu. The result is a gerrymander which links the Vimeu and Ponthieu together, but leaves out Abbeville which votes incorrectly. Around Molliens-Dreuil, this is Amiens’ right-leaning suburbia. The old third covered the Vimeu, coastal and inland, while the old fourth – now basically eliminated – covered Abbeville and the Ponthieu, both inland and coastal. Until 2007, the two constituencies went in sync with one another, voting PS in 1988 and 1997, and for the right in 1993 and 2002. In 2007, Gilbert Mathon (PS), now retiring, won in the fourth while the UMP held the third. On notional results, I believe the UMP won here in 2007, and the defacto incumbent is Jérôme Bignon (UMP). Hollande, however, took 53.1% here. He performed extremely well in the old Communist stronghold of the Vimeu rouge (Ault, Friville-Escarbotin, Gamaches), which is a very old industrial area (locks and faucets around Friville-Escarbotin, the glass industry along the Bresle river), while losing more narrowly in the Ponthieu and Amiens burbs. The Baie de Somme area, particularly the marshes which abound with water fowl, used to be CPNT’s top stronghold – Saint-Josse won a plurality in both the old third and fourth in 2002 – and CPNT retains some influence in Rue and Saint-Valéry-sur-Somme, though a lot of CPNT’s redneck hunters vote for the FN now. Marine won 25.3% here, second place ahead of Sarko, doing well basically throughout and especially well in the old CPNT bastions in the hunting grounds. This year, Bignon, who had defeated Vincent Peillon in 2002 and 2007, faces Jean-Claude Buisine, CG for Nouvion. The FG could also be important here. A triangulaire with the FN is likely here, and this is something which would probably hurt the UMP significantly given that Sarko in the first round was very weak – hardly surprising, the redneck hunters vote FN before they vote UMP. France-Electorale’s predictions based on 67% turnout and a FN at 15% gives the FN enough for a triangulaire, thus in the expectation of a triangulaire, I would predict a PS gain here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)
 
4th (Marleixtrocity, UMP)*: This is probably the most atrocious of the sh**tbag’s atrocious gerrymanders here. The new horror combines parts of the old fourth and fifth constituencies, to take up an awful salamander shape reaching from the Oise borders to the Pas-de-Calais, circling around Amiens. Around the cantons of Villiers-Bocage, Corbie, Moreuil, Ailly-sur-Noye and Conty, the influence of Amiens is very important. Overall, except for more affluent suburbs in Villiers-Bocage, this is a poor and traditionally working-class area. The left is strong in old PCF strongholds around Corbie and its textile industry, but also in Doullens on the border with the PDC, also an old textile area. Rural areas, which are far more exurban or suburban than actually rural, have leaned more to the FN/right in recent years. Marine won 25.6% here, doing well basically throughout the constituency. Hollande won with only 51.5% here. The de-facto incumbent is Alain Gest (UMP), who won in the sixth in 2002 and 2007, but with only 50.7% in 2007 (different boundaries). The seat, I think, is notionally UMP. Gest is running again this year, facing Catherine Le Tyrant, PS CG/mayor for Montdidier. The FN will probably make a triangulaire here, which might be fatal for the UMP, Sarko having placed third behind Marine on April 22. In the expectation of a triangulaire, I would predict a PS gain here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
5th (Péronne/Roye/Albert/Santerre, NC)*: The fifth gains Rosières-en-Santerre and Roye. Hollande won 53.6% here, backed by the small industrial centres of Albert, Rosières, Roye and Nesle. This is a very poor and isolated, marginalized region which is not suburban quite yet but which is not purely rural either. Most municipalities here are classified as “multipolarized” – inhabitants tend to commute to small towns in the canton or broader region for work. This whole setup makes it fertile ground for the FN, which is now extremely strong in these types of geographically isolated and marginalized semi-rural multipolarized areas – and there are plenty of those in Picardy and northern France. Marine won her best result here, with 27%, nearly as much as Hollande who placed first in the first round. She won between 24% and 33% in the cantons making up this constituency. The incumbent here is Stéphane Demilly, the NC mayor of Albert who won 55.5% in 2007 against the PS, after taking 49% in the first round. Running for a third term, he faces Valérie Kumm, the PS mayor of Péronne, but also a high-profile FN candidate: Wallerand de Saint-Just, a well-known lawyer and nutjob. The FN having done so well here back in April, it is basically certain that the FN will either win a duel with the left (or the right, but I doubt it), or, more likely, a triangulaire which would almost certainly doom Demilly and the right here. I have a hard time seeing Demilly survive.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)

Pas-de-Calais - Part I
 
1st (Saint-Pol-sur-Ternoise/Ternois/Artois, PS)*: This seat loses Arras-Sud and Arras-Ouest, but gains the following cantons: Auxi-le-Château, Saint-Pol-sur-Ternoise, Aubigny-en-Artois, Vitry-en-Artois and Marquion. It mixes some Arras suburbs (cantons of Beaumetz-lès-Loges and Croisilles) with some rural areas, some small industrial centres (Pas-en-Artois, Vitry-en-Artois, Auxi-le-Château, Bapaume) and the regional centre of Saint-Pol-sur-Ternois. Sarko won 51% here, and Marine took 25.7%. Hollande did well in Bapaume, Vitry-en-Artois or Auxi-le-Château, but in good part this constituency includes part of the rural Artois, which is a very conservative region, in the past tending towards clericalism and hierarchal, patriarchal political dominance by nobles or landowners. Sarko won over 55% of the vote in two cantons, including that of Saint-Pol-sur-Ternoise. However, the old first is currently held by the PS after being, between 1978 and 2007, the stronghold of left rad Jean-Pierre Defontaine. In 2007, the PS’ Jacqueline Maquet won 52.1% in the runoff against the UMP and held the seat for the left. In a good year, this would likely be an easy target for the UMP. However, it seems very tough for the UMP to win here, this year. The centre-right is divided, with the MoDem backing the CG for Croisilles, and the UMP running with Michel Petit, CG for Beaumetz-lès-Loges. Maquet is running in the second, being from Arras and all, so the PS candidate is the CG for Bapaume, Jean-Jacques Cottel. The PS should not face lots of trouble holding on, especially if the FN is able to make a triangulaire here – which is quite likely.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured
 
2nd (Arras, PS)*: Now centered exclusively around Arras (and Vimy), this seat gains Arras-Sud and Arras-Ouest, but loses Vitry-en-Artois and Marquion. Arras is a left-leaning city, giving 57% to Hollande – against 53.7% in the constituency as a whole. But it is not as working-class as other major cities in the 62: it has a large young population, tons of public sector employees and is more middle-class and white-collar than the other big PS strongholds in the 62. But it has usually been a Socialist stronghold, most famously with Guy Mollet between 45 and 75, albeit since 1995 it has been ruled by the right – rather, the MoDem, with Jean-Marie Vanlerenberghe, the man whose face scares kids away, as mayor (until last year). The cantons of Dainville and Vimy are rather affluent and suburban, and lean more to the right, but in this constituency, the left overpowers them. The old second was held by Catherine Génisson, since last year a PS senator. Briefly held by the right in 1993, she had won by a landslide in 1997 and won two successive reelections, with 56.1% in 2007. She will be succeeded by Jacqueline Maquet, incumbent in the old first, whose suppléant is the MRC CG for Vimy. The UMP’s candidate is the president of the tourism office in Arras. Marine won only 19.1% here, so it will probably be the only seat in the 62 where the FN doesn’t make it.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Lens/Avion, PS)*: The new third is more or less the old thirteenth, with the addition of the PCF stronghold of Avion to piss the Socialists off some in this mining basin constituency centered around Lens. Hollande won 64% here. Lens might have tried to move on from the old mining days by becoming a bit more ‘tertiaire’, but it remains one of the poorest cities in France with huge unemployment, very low incomes, low levels of education and so forth. Lens gave 64% to Hollande, and has been ruled only by PS mayors since 1947. Noyelles-sous-Lens is also a PS stronghold. However, the mining towns of Avion and Harnes – Avion especially – are PCF strongholds. Avion has been ruled by the PCF since before the war. Mélenchon took 25% in Avion and 15% in Harnes, but only 12% in Lens. Marine won 29.4% here, including over 30% in Noyelles-sous-Lens and Harnes, and 27% in Lens and Avion. Mélenchon placed third with 16.2%. Since 2007, the old 13th has been held by Guy Delcourt, PS mayor of Lens since 1998, who succeeded Jean-Claude Bois, who had held the seat since 1981. Delcourt won 64.2% in the runoff against the UMP in 2007, and 67.7% in a runoff against Marine Le Pen in 2002. The UMP, which placed fourth in 2002 (and on April 22) is out of the running. The three main guys, besides Delcourt, are Bruno Troni - the PCF CG for Noyelles-sous-Lens who took 13.2% in 2007, and the FN whose candidate is a regional councillor. The FG could stand an outside chance, because of their strength in Avions and Harnes, at winning this seat; while the FN could place second and lose to the PS or FG in the runoff. Turnout is low in these parts, so no triangulaires 'round here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

4th (Berck/Etables/Artois, UMP)*: Gains Le Parcq, Fruges and Hucqueliers; which shores up the right in this constituency - Sarko's best in the 62 with 53.4% of the votes for him. The left is strong, for reasons a bit foreign to me, in Hesdin and Campagne-les-Hesdin, but what dominates here is the canton of Montreuil (63% Sarko), home to the affluent coastal resort town of Le Touquet-Paris-Plage (78% Sarko). The addition of three inland rural cantons in the hills of the Artois is favourable to the right, given the conservatism of these areas (for reasons touched on previously). The old fourth was narrower, but it had never elected a leftie. In 2007, Daniel Fasquelle, UMP mayor of Le Touquet, won 53.9%. In 1997, his UDF predecessor won 51.2% in the runoff. Fasquelle is running for reelection and is likely the favourite in the 62's most right-wing seat. He faces his 2007 PS rival, Vincent Léna, a regional councillor. A triangulaire with the FN could be dangerous and is a possibility, but Marion only won 21.4% of the vote here. France-electorate's estimates, the best such predictions on such things imo, do not predict a triangulaire here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

5th (Boulogne-sur-Mer, PS^)*: Gains the northeastern and northwestern cantons of Boulogne-sur-Mer, so it now includes the entirety of this industrial, working-class and low income city but also its working-class suburbs such as Le Portel, Outreau etc and some more well-off suburbs. This is a left-wing stronghold: Hollande won 57.5% here, including 62% in Boulogne-sur-Mer, 66% in Outreau and 58% in Le Portel. On the left, furthermore, the PS has been dominant here, while the PCF has never been extremely strong. Marine won 22.3% here. The area has elected a right-wing deputy only once since 1958 ('93), it elected Communists in 1973 and 1978, but has voted PS since then. In 2007, it elected the PS mayor of Boulogne-sur-Mer and new cabinet minister Frédéric Cuvillier with 62% in the runoff. Cuvillier is running again. The right finally managed unity here, behind the DVD mayor of Le Portel, Laurent Feutry. The unity of the right likely precludes a triangulaire with the FN or the FN placing second, but I guess there's an outside chance either of those scenarios could happen. Whatever does happen, however, the PS will win.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

this site sucks

not because of you of course, but because of this f... ministry of interior with those "divers gauche, divers droite, autre, gnagnagna"


a little compare from this site, about 4th circonscritpion of côtes du nord
http://www.elections-legislatives.fr/candidats/02204.asp

and same circonscription but from another site :

http://www.politiquemania.com/candidatures-legislatives-2012-cotes-d-armor.html


wich give us the most "étiquettes" as possible :)

As for candidates, they declare what they want when they put their candidacy in the Prefecture.

Neither the Assemblée's site, nor politiquemania has what is interesting for us: is a DVG a PS-dissident or a real DVG ?
You have to know the local situation or to search for yourself ;D

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In Somme, I mostly agree with you, Hash.
In the 4th and 5th, the PS candidates are very strong locally and, with or even without traingulaires, they'll win in national pink wave.
In the 3rd, a likely triangulaire will erase the small chances remaining for the UMP.
In the 1st, the communist tradition is deep and I think the FG candidate will be in front of the PS one.
In the 2nd, I really fear a EE-LV win, even if their candidate is weak (and, yes, the only noticeable DVG candidate is a MRC which is president of the Office de Tourisme: no big deal, I think). Just for that, Jardé may win with a 50.2 score :P

Somme will be a "wonderful" department, because we must remember that there was NO trinagulaire in 1997. This year, we may have at least 3 !
And there may be a net gain of +3 for the left here, if not +4... :(
Oise and Aisne will be fine, too, electorally speaking.

Pas-de-Calais, part I: you are right on everything. Pretty sure the FG won't make it against the PS anywhere.

Just for fun, my own predictions so far (hope Antonio will update Hash's own map):
()

I hope Hash will forgive me to have put "rég. & ind." at the bottom of this list, just under the FN :P
Should correct this next time.

I find the map of France above is very hard to make sense of. The two parties that matter the most UMP and PS are not contrasting enough colors and I have a bit of colourful blindness and have trouble seeing the difference between some shades of purple and blue side by side. Why not use red for PS and blue for UMP?

Because pink is the official colour of PS.

What would you use for the PCF, then?

I'm doing right now, but I'm slow... :P

BTW, I think I've found a little mistake : there's no UMP incumbent in Charente.

Still amazing work, and it's going impressively fast. :)

http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/legislatives-pour-les-francais-de-l-etranger-ca-flingue-au-far-west_1118844.html#xtor=AL-447

They talk about your "lands", Hash ;)

Hangover from the era when the PCF was a major party. Personally I think a rosy red for the PS and maroon for the Commies works better.

It's almost as heretic as criticizing Dave Leip's colours ;)

No, because Dave's colours are the prettier option.

Pas-de-Calais - Part II

6th (Collines d'Artois/Lumbres/Ardres/Marquise, PS^):* The old third being abolished, the sixth takes up Heuchin, Desvres, Lumbres (from the third), Ardres (from the seventh), Fauquembergues (from the eight) but gives away Boulogne NE and NO and Calais NO. The result is a weird thing which isn't too nice. Hollande won 51.9% here, and Marine took second on April 22 with 25.2%. Rural areas in this part of the Artois, again, remain conservative, but small industrial centres such as Marquise, Lumbres, Ardres or Guines provide the left with a very solid base. Marine did well throughout this constituency, which is largely poor, marginalized and working-class. Hollande didn't really win any canton with huge margins, but he did win the major cities of the cantons he did win by large margins (55-60% of the vote). The old sixth was represented since 2002 by The Great Poet and Cultural Connoisseur, Jack "carpetbag" Lang. For some reason, The Great Poet and Cultural Connoisseur felt like moving to another constituency or he didn't feel like facing a primary in his seat; so he decided to make a scene. Lang won with 53.8% in the old sixth in 2007. His seat left open, the PS made the boneheaded move of endorsing Brigitte Bourguignon, a local councillor in Boulogne-sur-Mer. The main left-wing candidate here is thus Hervé Poher, the PS CG for Guines who benefits from heavy local backing. The UMP is running its 2007 candidate, Frédéric Wacheux, and the FN has a regional and local councillor. The left, Poher specifically, will win fairly easily here, and there is a big chance for either a triangulaire or PS-FN runoff.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

7th (Calais, PS^)*: Gains Calais NO, loses Ardres. The new seat includes the entirety of Calais and its 'burbs. The working-class and low-income city of Calais, 62% for Hollande, has usually been a left-wing - traditionally PCF - stronghold. Overall, Hollande won 57.3% here. The seat has been by the PS since 1988 with the exception of 1993. However, the PS is fairly weak in terms of organization in Calais. The city was governed between 1971 and 2008 by the PCF, most recently by Jacky Hénin, who is now a MEP. In 2008, the UMP's Natacha Bouchart, now a Senator, defeated Hénin, if only because the FN backed out of the runoff and endorsed her and she received unofficial support from the PS against the traditional enemy of PS-62, the Communists. In 2007, Bouchart, as the UMP candidate, took 49.3% in the runoff against PS incumbent Gilles Cocquempot, who is now retiring. The UMP came so close here in 2007 that their thumping in 2012 will be quite spectacular. Indeed, the right is very divided here. There's the official UMP candidate, Philippe Mignonnet, a local official in Calais; Michel Hamy, the DVD CG for Calais NO and local mayor; and Catherine Fournier, a DVD local mayor and former CG. Add to this a FN which won second place on April 22 with 25.6% and it looks quite likely that the right will be eliminated by the first round of voting. The big fight here will be PS vs. FG. The PS' candidate is Yann Capet, the son of former PS deputy André Capet (1988-1993, 1997-2000), but he is not a very strong candidate, at least to me. The FG candidate is Jacky Hénin, former mayor of Calais and MEP. He won 14.1% in 1997 running against Capet's daddy, but will likely do much better than that, and also much better than Melenchon's 12.4%. The games might be troubled a tad by Philippe Blet, the MRC 'adjoint au maire' to the mayor of Calais... who is UMP... The left will hold this seat, but which one of the PS or FG will come out on top and either be alone in the runoff or beat the FN is up for grabs.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

8th (Saint-Omer/Arques/Auchel, PS)*: This seat was famous in 2007 when Michel Lefait, the PS incumbent in the old eight since 1997, was the only left-wing candidate to win by the first round. The new constituency gains the mining basin cantons of Auchel and Norrent-Fontes, while losing more rural Fauquembergues. Hollande won 58.4% here and Marine had placed second with 24.4%. The left's main bases in this new constituency are Arques, Lefait's political base and a big industrial city outside of Saint-Omer (glass industry); the two newly added mining cantons (Auchel and Norrent-Fontes, 64% Hollande in both), the small industrial town of Aire-sur-la-Lys. Getting into Auchel - a PCF stronghold - we're entering the mining basin. Most of the seat still lies outside the old mining basin, but is still largely poor and working-class. Lefait is running again, but it is unlikely he will by the first round. He faces a serious rival in the form of the PCF CG for Auchel (the canton was 17% for Melenchon, but only 10.9% in the constituency). The FN, which won 29% in Auchel with Marine and 27% in Arques, will almost certainly place ahead of the UMP, which is about as popular as the plague in these parts. Whether the runoff is the PS alone because the FG places second and drops out as per custom, or if it is PS-FN; the left will win easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

9th (Béthune/Laventie, UMP)*: Gains Laventie but loses Norrent-Fontes. This seat, 52.9% for Hollande, is not as leftie as its surroundings in the mining basin because it isn't really in the mining basin at this point. Certainly Béthune is a blue-collar city, but it isn't in the mining basin. There are some mining villages here (Lilliers, some communes in Béthune-sud) but not a lot. In addition, places such as Laventin and the northern suburbs of Béthune are fairly white-collar and middle-class, and are very much suburbs of Lille. Laventie, which gave about 59% to Sarko, also has a working-class past - textiles - but because of the Catholic influence in Flanders and other factors, it has been a right-wing working-class area. This seat leans to the left, still, but since 2002 it has been held by the UMP's André Flajolet. Between 1978 and 1997, it was held by Jacques Mellick, the former PS mayor of Béthune who turned out to be a major crook. Mellick hasn't helped the left out much here, and in 2007, when he ran against Flajolet, Flajolet won with 51.8% in the runoff. Flajolet is running again this year, and can hope to benefit from a divided left. The PS is backing Stéphane Saint-André, the PRG mayor of Béthune, but the locals are backing a dissident candidacy by Alain Delannoy, the PS CG for Béthune-Sud. There is also another DVG candidate here. Marine won 23.8% here, so the FN is in a strong position as well. There is an outside chance that the left's division could inadvertently lead to a UMP-FN duel which the UMP would win, but in any other scenario, such as a triangulaire or left-right duel, Flajolet is quite vulnerable. For the moment, I would rate this as a tossup, but with a left edge, not knowing what can come out of the left's division.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

10th (Bruay-la-Buissière/Nœux-les-Mines/Bassin Minier, PS)*: Loses Auchel, gains Sains-en-Gohelle and Noeux-les-Mines. This seat, which gave 62.7% to Hollande, is in the heart of the mining basin. The towns of Marles-les-Mines (PCF), Divion (PCF), Bruay-la-Buissière (PS), Houdain (PCF), Barlin (PS), Nœux-les-Mines (PS), Hersin-Coupigny (DVG) and Sains-en-Gohelle (PCF) used to be core mining villages. The mines have closed, but they remain decling, marginalized and extremely deprived areas with a fairly young and poorly educated population which works in low-paying blue-collar jobs or similar activities. For sure, parts of  Sains-en-Gohelle or Houdain's cantons are more affluent in the suburban sphere of Arras, but the core here remains very poor and working-class. This region has never elected a right-winger since 1958, and has alternated between PS and PCF. Since 1988, the old 10th has been held by the PS. The incumbent since 1993 is Serge Janquin (PS). He is running for reelection. His main rivals are the FN (27.8% Marine, second place) and the FG (13.5% Melenchon). He won 67.9% in the 2007 runoff against the UMP, which should probably be eliminated by the first round in 2012. The FG is running Thomas Boulard, a local official in Divion with the mayor of Houdain as his suppleant. The FN's candidate name is irrelevant, but she could make the runoff, most likely in a straight PS-FN fight. The FG *might* stand an outside chance at pimping the PS for first, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

Pas-de-Calais - Part III

11th (Everybody Loves Marineland! in Hénin-Beaumont/Carvin, PS^)*: The old 14th is the 11th, gaining, compared to the 14th, the canton of Carvin. This seat is, of course, the one seat which everybody cares about and which everybody knows about (when in most cases, they really don't). The cause is, of course, Panzergirl, who carpetbagged here back in 2007 or so and became Hénin-Beaumont's most famous resident, even if I kinda doubt that Mrs. Born-in-Neuilly actually lives in some old mining village. The city of Hénin-Beaumont has become known across France as "that place where the Le Pen chick is from". She won first place on April 22 in this constituency with 31.4% of the vote (Hollande took 60.4% in the runoff). In Hénin-Beaumont proper, Marion won 35.5% and she's had a "favourite daughter" effect of sorts which has boosted the FN's results in surrounding communes. The new constituency includes the cantons of Hénin-Beaumont, Rouvroy (PCF stronghold), Leforest, Montigny-en-Gohelle, Courrieres and Carvin. In the past, the entirety of these cantons, up until the last mines close in the 1990s (these mines were the last to close), were all mining villages or included cités minières. Rouvroy, Hénin, Montigny-en-Gohelle, Noyelles-Godault, Libercourt, Oignies and Carvin all included mines. Nowadays, with the mines closed, these areas remain very poor. Instead of miners, it is a more mixed population of manual workers, forced to commute to work in larger communes (this is the case in Libercourt, where people commute to a Renault plant in Douai); and low-paid employees in social activities and the public sector. Courcelles-lès-Lens and Noyelles-Godault saw a metal plant close down in 2003. Furthermore, one thing which few people realize, this area is more and more a poor exurb of Lille.

Since 1958, this seat - which was the 14th until 2009 - elected a right-winger only once, in 1993. Between 1958 and 1973 the seat was held by the Socialists. Between 1973 and 1986, the PCF's Joseph Legrand held the seat. In 1988, Albert Facon (PS), mayor of Courrières, won the seat uncontested in the runoff (because the PCF placed second). In 1993, after outpolling the PCF mayor of Rouvroy Yves Coquelle by one vote, he lost to Jean Urbaniak, DVD mayor of Noyelles-Godault since 1983 in the runoff, with 46.3% in the runoff. Urbaniak was a fairly mavericky, independent figure but that didn't help him in 1997. He placed third in the first round with 23.8% behind Coquelle (25.4%) and Facon (25.6%). In a triangulaire against the FN's Steeve Briois (who later joined the MNR, afaik), Urbaniak won only 31.7% against 52.3% for Facon and 16% for Briois. In 2002, Facon (26.2%) and Briois (20.1%) qualified for the runoff, while Gérard Dalongeville, the MDC mayor of Hénin-Beaumont (who was forced out in 2009 in a corruption scandal) placed third with 14.4%. Urbaniak won 12.2% as a DVD candidate, ahead of the PCF (11.1%) and the UMP (7.7%). In the runoff, Facon won 67.9% against the FN. In 2007, the high-profile contest between Facon and Panzergirl ended in the only runoff in France for which the FN qualified. Facon won 28.2% against 24.5% for Panzergirl, Urbaniak - now MoDem - winning 13.2% and the UMP's Nesrédine Ramdani winning 12.95%. The PCF won 11.5%. In the runoff, Marine lost but did well, winning 41.7%. She won 44.5% in Hénin-Beaumont, 48% in Noyelles-Godault (after giving 59% to Urbaniak) and 48.7% in Courcelles-lès-Lens. In the 2009 local by-election in Hénin, the FN won 39.3% in the first round against 20.2% for Daniel Duquenne, an anti-corruption leftie and 17% for Pierre Ferrari (PS). The FN lost to Duquenne with 52.4% in the runoff.

The PS incumbent, Albert Facon is retiring - more or less pushed into doing so. In a very divided and likely semi-rigged PS primary, the mayor of Carvin, Philippe Kemel narrowly beat out another guy. His suppleant is the PS mayor of Leforest. Traditionally, the PS has been the dominant party of the left over the PCF in Hénin-Beaumont, although the PCF dominates right next door in Rouvroy. Like in most of the mining basin, politics usually were a fraternal fight between PS and PCF, and despite any ideological proximity and other appearances, both parties here have a long history of enmity. The PS in the Pas-de-Calais was, for quite some time, backed by heavy anti-communist rhetoric from its leaders. Unlike in the Nord, furthermore, the PS has always tended to be the dominant party of the left, even in most of the mining basin, against the PCF. This is a long-standing tradition, first noted in the 1890s, and maintained by a strong PS machine on the ground in the Pas-de-Calais' mining basin. In recent years, however, the PS-62 has been going down the sh**tter. A lot of its prominent leaders got caught with their hands in the jelly pot, Dalongeville being a local example while Kucheida in Liévin being the most recent example. Factional conflicts, based heavily on personality, have also weakened the PS-62, which has found itself unable to renew its leadership. Factional conflicts are very big in Hénin, where the PS went down the sh**tter with Dalongeville, who seems to have done a Roberto Jefferson and written a book about corruption in the PS. Kemel's nomination resulted in a bad factional conflict, leaving Marine in a strong position to potentially win this seat on the back of the PS' crappy state and its bad image locally.

That is until her worst enemy on the face of the earth, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, decided to come and piss her off in her own backyard. Mélenchon opted to run in this constituency after his Tour de France of constituencies. On April 22, he won 14.9% of the vote, including 23% in the canton of Rouvroy but only 12% in the canton of Hénin-Beaumont. His candidacy was a pretty big risk for him to take, because this isn't a PCF stronghold and the PCF has not been too prominent in this constituency since 1997 or so. I don't think he starts off with a strong PCF infrastructure. But certain things went in his favour: his undeniable charisma, which puts him on equal footing with Panzergirl; his ability to tap into left-wing protest sentiments which run high here given the disastrous state of the PS; and a local ability to benefit from a bunch of grudges, petty personality feuds and mini-civil wars between local PS barons. Facon has been eerily silent, and likely personally supports Mélenchon given his deep enmity with Kemel. Kemel's rival in the primary is basically backing Mélenchon. The DVG mayor of Hénin-Beaumont welcomed his candidacy, almost with open arms. Even if base PS sympathizers might dislike him, it's only a small proportion of left-wing voters who are actually partisans or party members. Local left-wing voters might like Mélenchon's image and stature. There is also the potential factor, touched upon in one article, that local voters in this rather insular setting might like the fact that a big guy like Mélenchon pays superficial attention to them.

The main other candidate is, again, Jean Urbaniak, mayor of Noyelles-Godault and CG for Hénin-Beaumont. He is running more or less as an independent, but with the MoDem's backing and the UMP's endorsement - his suppleant is Nesrédine Ramdani, who gives the impression of being the only UMP member in this area. There is also a PRG candidate, who is a regional councillor; an EELV person; two far-lefties (LO and NPA) plus a Stalinist. Urbaniak is basically the best candidate the non-FN right could come up with, given his strong local base, but he won't win.

An Ifop poll gave the following results:

Marine (FN) 34%
Mélenchon (FG-PG) 29%
Kemel (PS) 18%
Urbaniak (MoDem-UMP) 16%
EELV 2.5%
LO 0.5%
None others polled

According to this (doubtful) poll, Mélenchon would win 55-45 and Kemel would win 56-44. If Urbaniak makes it, Mélenchon wins 44-36-20. The poll has surprised some, but personally, I think Mélenchon can pretty easily be the top candidate on the left, for reasons mentioned above. As for the runoff, 2009 in Hénin-Beaumont was almost as good as it could get for the FN, and she still lost. The addition of Carvin, where she's not as well implanted, could also hurt her (but it will hurt Mélenchon too). She can win, but I have heavy doubts. It would require her to poll 50%+1, which isn't impossible for the FN, but always a tough proposition. Turnout can, of course, play big tricks, but still...
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (against the far-right, lean FG over PS)

12th (Liévin, DVG)*: This seat loses Avion and Sains-en-Gohelle, but gains Cambrin, Douvrin and Wingles. The seat's centre remains Liévin, one of the major cities in the mining basin and a very poor working-class city with a mining past. Liévin but also Grenay, Loos-en-Gohelle, Bully-les-Mines, Mazingarbe, Cambrin, Auchy-les-Mines, Douvrin and Wingles all used to be major mining villages. Besides the northern parts of the canton of Cambrin, which are now fairly affluent suburbs to Lille (and right-leaning), the rest of the seat is solidly left-wing and all working-class. Hollande won 62.6% here, and Marine won 30.1% (and Sarko only 15%) in the first round. She took 29% in Liévin, 32% in Wingles, 31% in Douvrin, 32% in Auchy-les-Mines and 34% in Mazingarbe. Mélenchon won 12.4%, this seat lacks "core" PCF strongholds, though Auchy-les-Mines, iirc, is a PCF stronghold of sorts. Since 1981, the 12th has been the stronghold of Jean-Pierre Kucheida, a strongman of the PS-62 and mayor of Liévin since 1981. In 2007, he won 69.7% in the runoff, in 2002 he faced the FN in the runoff and in 1997 he won uncontested in the runoff after the PCF placed second. Recently, however, the PS has been forced - quite reluctantly - to exclude him given that he too has been found with the hand in the cookie jar. Therefore, Kucheida is running for reelection as a DVG, being opposed by a PS candidate - Nicolas Bays - who, because he's basically a nobody - gives the impression that the PS wasn't too hot on the idea of throwing JPK under the bus. Kucheida will likely win rather easily, despite being a crook, and will likely face the FN in a runoff, like in 2002. The right won't be a presence at all.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

Maybe the Bouches-du-Rhone next? Unless anybody is eager for another department.

I'd prefer if you kept it geographically contiguous, maybe finishing the regions you have started covering ?

BTW, you seem to be quicker at coverning contituencies than I am at turning your predictions into a map. :P

Bouches-du-Rhône would be great: Boyer, Muselier are threatened; will Carlotti make it ? Great duels, possible triangulaires. Real suspense here !

Yonne and Doubs too.
Oise and Meurthe-et-Moselle also.

This has been very entertaining and informative, and I feel somewhat ignorant asking this, but can someone explain what would cause a certain legislative seat to have a triangulaire runoff instead of a regular top-two runoff? And I'm assuming if you can get 50%+1 then you don't have to go through a second round?

Here we go ! Sorry, it took a bit of time to catch up... :P

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Safe left : 53
Left favored : 5
Lean left : 7
Left : 65

Tossup - left edge : 10
Pure tossup : 5
Tossup - right edge : 10
Tossup : 25

Lean right : 13
Right favored : 11
Safe right : 13
Right : 37

2007 : Left 62 / Right 71.

Let me congratulate you once again for doing this job. You must have spent your whole free time for this. :o It is really helpful for someone like me who absolutely wants to know what to expect. Kudos ! :)

Since we're over one-fifth and it's starting to shape up, maybe it's time for a few comments. First of all, this looks surprisingly close. So, the area you covered so far is significantly more left-wing than France as a whole (47% of seats held by the left in 2007 as opposed to 40% nationally). However, if we add all safe left, left favored and lean left seats,  we only get 51%. If this is to be considered as representative of France as a whole, it would mean that the total left seats would not reach 50% - meaning that the left's control of majority would rely on seats ranked as tossups. Thus, we come to the conclusion that the outcome of this election is a tossup, which is a frightening perspective enough for me and should give Fab some hope... Conversely, I'm surprised to see how lopsided safe seats are : 53 for the left against 13 for the right ! This seems to suggest that the right benefits from the distribution of seats : the left tends to be packed in safe seats but has few half-competitive seats. This might be proven wrong later, but so far that's what I notice.

I insist that I think you should keep things as geographically (and administratively) regular as possible. My advice would be to finish NPDC, Picardie, Centre and then go on with Ile-de-France. I'm sure there are interesting races out there.

As a side note, some constituencies look quite nasty. Somme is an utter disgrace... Also, numbering is utterly ridiculous. Even the US one makes more sense !

I'm an ignorant American, of course, so don't mind me...but it seems to me that polling trends clearly showed Sark would have won had the election been held even just a few days later, and that taking into account some sort of small bump from Hollande's victory, the legislative election is tossup with perhaps a vague left tilt.


How is redistricting done in France?

It seems very possible the left might win the PV but the right wins in the seat count...of course, this all depends on Hashemite being right (and from his other posts I would have to conclude he is very left, hahaha)...


I wouldn't know about interesting, but geography is a good way to organize this.

This former Illinois resident who now resides in Ohio would like to point out that, no, they don't. Those are clean, un-gerrymandered lines in my neck of the woods.


No, it doesn't!


Could somebody answer instead of carrying on talking to themselves?

And, nice map, good analysis of Hashemite's analysis, Antonio. This makes this post an analysis-of-an-analysis-of-an-analysis...generally only religious texts get analyzed that much :o

Yes, 50+1 = first round victory.

And re triangulaires: I believe it's when more than two candidates get a minimum first-round share of registered (as opposed to voting) voters in a particular constituency (10%?), and one of them (more often than not an overachieving FN) refuses to step aside in the second round on behalf of the top/other two finishers...

personnaly, i don't count PS/UMP dissidents as part of total voting of PS or UMP, because those votes don't count for the money each party will receive.


(but, yes, for each candidate "sans étiquette", "divers" or other horrible stuff like that, I made a search -generally with his name on google + the name of the department. Often, you found good results)

I´d like to say that I am enjoying this thread a lot and by the way I am learning a lot of things about French politics, so thanks to the author. I am a little bit afraid about the Bleu Marine wave but otherwise I am expecting the predictions in the FN strongholds (Provence-Alpes Maritimes, Alsace-Lorraine, etc) and the possible triangulaires there. I will end loving Marineland (Hénin-Beaumont) and I am not too sure about a victory of Mélenchon over his Nemesis.

About the maps: pink-PS and red-front-the-gauche are fine to me, so I like big bad fab´s one (and the others too) but I think that a softer pink would work better in contrast (and DVG would need another colour).
  

If I am not wrong, the percentage of registered voters needed is 12.5% (1/8) to pass to the 2nd round.

It's me, or Marisol Touraine is/was president of the CG corresponding to the old Touraine province?

50% of valid votes and 25% of registered voters for a first round victory, 12.5% of registered voters or a top two place to advance to the second roung.

New IFOP poll:

49% Right (32.5 UMP + 16.0 FN + 0.5 DLR)

47% Left (34.5 PS + 7.0 FdG + 4.5 Greens + 0.5 LO + 0.5 NPA)

  4% MoDem

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1867-1-study_file.pdf

28% of 18-24 year olds vote FN, only 1% behind the PS.

The situation is pretty unusual, I have to admit. Hollande's narrow victory proves that he won more out of anti-Sarkozysm than due to his own qualities. I won't go as far as saying Sarkozy would have won a week later (we will never know for sure) but there is a fair chance. On the other hand, in the history of the fifth Republic, legislatives held immediately after a Prez election have always given a majority to the newly elected President. Turnout is lower, meaning that these elections are perceived as less important (though in fact they are more) and that they are a mere confirmation of the previous vote. The few polls conduced so far would indicate a left victory, explainable by the fact French people are generally not fond of "cohabitation" (PM and PR of opposite political sides) and that they are ready to give Hollande a chance. The climate is not that of a honeymoon like in 2007, 1995 or 1981, but Hollande nonetheless seems to be apreciated so far. However... The situation is still unusual, with a crisis still on the minds of everybody, and it's not to be excluded that people get afraid at Hollande and think letting the right in power would be a lesser evil. It's hard to know what will come from this.



A redistricting bill in France is a bill like another : the government introduces it, the parliament passes it. Which means there is no possible barrier against partisan gerrymandering... apart from the incompetence of gerrymanderers. :P In 1986, right-wing minister Charles Pasqua came with a constituency map which was significantly gerymandered in favor of the right. However, with the demographic trends of the next decades (urbanization and gentrification of the left vote), the right's advantages evaporated extremely quickly. The current redistricting was enacted by Alain Marleix, who is, coincidentally, the UMP's electoral specialist. It is widely seen as favorable to the right overall, but the extent to which it is is unclear. I remember hearing somewhere that the left needed 51.5% nationwide to win a majority... This is significant, but doesn't qualify as "massive gerrymander".

Hash is a centrist/centre-right by French standards, but he can't stand Sarkozy (for good reasons). Also, the UMP candidate in his constituency is an absolute party hack and one of the stupidest (if not the stupidest) persons among the right.



America is unique with regard to gerrymander. France is obviously miles ahead in this regard, but one can't judge French constituencies by American standards. It would be like saying that an elephant isn't big simply because a galaxy is bigger. :P



Yes. There is a second round if no candidate reaches absolute majority by first round. In this case, the candidates who have received the votes of at least 12.5% of registered voters are qualified (if less than two candidates meet this criterion, the two top vote getters get qualified nonetheless). Thus a triangulaire can happen if three candidates reach a 12.5% threshold. In this case, a mere plurality can be sufficient to win.

Sarkozy wouldn't have won had the election been a week later because the campaign would also have started a week later. And the polls show a big defeat for the UMP in the works, so, you know.

What if there were 3 weeks separating the two rounds instead of 2 ?

Same result, given that all that happened was panic caused by the other lot about to get in.

This is one of the possible interpretations (and the one I personally want to believe in) but not the only one.

Let's not derail this thread, kthx.

As for the next departments I'll cover, given that it's impossible for me to cover 450 remaining constituencies in the time space of two weeks - it would require me to cover 35 or something per day - I'll insist that I cover interesting departments in priority and then fill in the gaps with the time I have left.

Do whatever you want in whatever order you want.

It's your thread, Hash.

I'm with Al
Besides that would I love to have a list over the deals between Les Verts and PS - and where FG stand a chance. And if you bother, the same with NC and UMP

And of cause all the DVG and DVD - always fun to see who is real diverse and who is just dissidents from the major parties :)

That sucks. :( Seriously, I like your lengthy descriptions of each race a lot, but I'd rather have you write only 2 lines per seat rather than renouncing to cover all 577 races.

What do you guys think the minimum amount of the nationwide vote the left wing parties need for an overall left wing majority of seats.  In the polls right now the 46 or 47% they are getting should be enough, but I wonder what the danger level is that would mean no majority.

If there are enough three way fights then they won't even need a majority of second round votes.

Dude, I work 38 hours a week; I sleep, I eat and I waste time like any normal human being, and I'm already sacrificing all my free time and more to write these. Unless I can be cloned or somebody joins me in doing this, then as a normal human being, it's unreasonable to expect me to cover 450 constituencies in a serious fashion in like 13 days.

Yeah, I know... I'd be unable to do 1/100 of your work. But, just an advice : you might make descriptions far shorter. Maybe it wouldn't be enough to do all 577, but the more you do the better. :)

Sorry, I don't have the playmoney to clone you. If I did, I would.

I would like to see Nord and PACA, but also like the idea of going clockwise around France. You could always write two lines about the safe places and keep the current format for the interesting seats.

Bouches-du-Rhône

1st (Marseille-11, part of 10 and 12/Vallée de l'Huveaune, UMP^)*: The new first covers all of the 11th arrondissement, the north of the 10th and the south of the 12th. It corresponds to the southern part of the old 8th constituency, and part of the old 1st constituency. It is in eastern Marseille, following the A50 highway. Sarko won 55.8% here and Marion won 25.1%. The 11th is a fairly low-income or lower middle-class area in general, with blue-collar or working poor areas in the Vallée de l'Huveaune but more affluent parts in the hills. The 12th is much more affluent, except for a few areas, with some much nicer houses. Sarko won 63% in the canton of Les Trois-Lucs, which includes some of the more affluent parts of the 11th and 12th. Hollande, on the other hand, won 52% in the canton of Saint-Martin, which includes less affluent and oftentimes big HLM concentrations in the valley along the highway. The far-right is predictably weak in the affluent neighborhoods, but polls very well in the valley's more lower-income and blue-collar areas. Marion won 28.8% in the canton of Saint-Martin and 27.5% in the canton of La Pomme (which is not entirely part of this constituency, but the neighborhood of La Pomme itself is - it is a low-income area). The area is somewhat isolated from the downtown parts, in parts it is quite economically and socially marginalized; a perfect recipe, again, for a strong FN vote. The old eight constituency's UMP incumbent, Valérie Boyer, is running here, with Roland Blum, the UMP incumbent in the old first, as her suppleant. She faces a strong NC candidacy from Robert Assante, mayor of the 6th sector and CG for Les Trois-Lucs. The PS candidate is Christophe Masse, a scion of a political family which used to be dominant in the city, CG for Les Olives and former deputy for the eight between 2002 and 2007. The FN is likely to make a triangulaire here, which would be closely fought. Boyer-Blum are a pretty strong duo, and she's an ambitious young member of the Droite pop which can be counted on to appear as a FN-lite. Masse is also a strong candidate. A triangulaire could be very dangerous for the right. A close race for sure.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

2nd (Marseille-7 and 8, UMP)*: The second expands to take in parts of the old third (the canton of Saint-Lambert) but loses part of the canton of Vauban. The boundaries are simple, otherwise: the entirety of the 7th and 8th arrondissements of Marseille, the southern coast of the city, south of the Vieux-Port. The 7th and 8th are some of the most affluent parts of the city, especially the Roucas-Blanc, Bompard, Endoume, Périer, La Plage and Saint-Giniez areas. You do have some more bobo or less affluent parts around the Vieux-Port area, but overall this is an affluent constituency. Sarko won 60.8% here, Marine won only 16.8%. Sarko nearly won 68% in the canton of Saint-Giniez, and won over 55% in La-Pointe-Rouge and Saint-Lambert cantons. The incumbent in the old second is Dominique Tian (UMP) since 2002. He won by the first round with over 57% in 2007. He will certainly win again this year, possibly by the first round given the low calibre of left-wing candidates in this conservative stronghold. The FN is unsurprisingly weak here, so no big FN presence should be counted on in these parts.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right
 
3rd (Marseille-13, part of 12 and 14, notional PS):* Nothing to do with the old third: the new third takes in all of the 13th, parts of the 12th and parts of the 14th arrondissements of the city. It corresponds, grosso-modo, to the north of the old 8th constituency and northeast of the old 7th in northeastern Marseille. After the bourgeois of the 2nd constituency, welcome to another world. The 13th is not entirely a low-income area, as its outskirts include some more exurban areas which are a tad more affluent and which post higher number in terms of education or house ownership. But parts of the 13th (Saint-Jérôme and Malpassé especially) and the parts of the 14th included here (Bon-Secours, Saint-Barthélémy etc) are very poor, working-class or blue-collar 'inner city' type areas: big HLM developments (or small houses), areas classified as 'ZUS' (zone urbaine sensible, aka dumps), very low education (sometimes over 40% with no certifications at all), very high unemployment, young populations, multicultural, crime problems and almost every other thing which comes along with blighted inner cities. Hollande won 50.7% here, but the area in general is shifting to the right in general. Marine placed second on April 22 with 26.2% here, doing well throughout the 13th (the more 'exurban' parts are not nearly as affluent as the 12th...) and 14th. I do suspect that Sarko won on May 6 in the more exurban/non ZUS parts of the 13th, while Hollande won by pretty big margins in the ZUS areas. The way Marleix used the scissors here, I think he envisioned for the right to be able to win this seat (like Boyer won the old 8th narrowly in 2007: that seat had voted PS in 1993...) in a year like 2007, but I doubt the UMP can stand a chance in 2012. The FN will do very well, and either go in a triangulaire or a straight PS-FN runoff. The PS incumbent here is Sylvie Andrieux, who is, of course, being a Socialist in Marseille (or - more fairly - a politician in Marseille) a crook/criminal. She has held the old 7th since 1997, a year in which the FN won 42.2% in the runoff. The candidate for the FN, who is more likely to make a strong presence than the UMP's sacrificial lamb, Stéphane Ravier, already won 11.8% in the awful year of 2007 in the old 7th and is well based in northern Marseille. I wouldn't be surprised if the UMP's Nora Preziosi is out by June 10.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured

4th (Marseille-1, 2, 3, parts of 5 and 6, notional PS)*: Again, nothing to do with the old fourth: this constituency takes in all of the 1, 2 and 3rd arr. of Marseille and parts of the 5th and 6th. In terms of constituency, it includes parts of the old 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th. This seat is a great example - once again - of packing, or what has been called by some in France the "Indian reserve" strategy. Indeed, this seat, in which Hollande won 69.4% (!) is one of the safest seats for the left in France. It includes a lot of very poor and historically working-class 'inner city' areas of Marseille in the downtown area (most of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd arr.). Unemployment is 32.4% in the 3rd, 30.8% in the 2nd (including 41% in Grands-Carmes) and 26.7% in the 1st. The seat, for good measure, also takes in the most leftie parts of the 5th and 6th: Camas in the former, Notre-Dame-du-Mont/Cours Julien in the latter. In political terms, it is not very important. In social terms, however, these two neighborhoods are the bobo citadels of the city, the Cours Julien being a very popular place for students/artsy types/bobos in general. There is also gentrification at work in the 1st (in 2009, the Greenies won over 26% in the 1st...) and parts of the 2nd (Arenc). Patrick Mennucci, an ambitious PS bigwig (and opponent of the Godfather, Guérini) and mayor of the 1st sector, who narrowly lost in the old 3rd in 2007, is running here. The UMP (16.6% for Sarko on April 22) and the FN (14.5% for Marine) won't be a presence, so the fight is on the left. I must say that the UMP candidate is not a nobody; Solange Biaggi, the new CG for ND-du-Mont, though she only won in 2011 because the division of the left against a corrupt PRG incumbent (in a type of place which isn't too keen on reelecting corrupt lefties...) allowed her to face the FN in the runoff. Mennucci faces a dissident PS candidacy from Lisette Narducci, mayor of the 2nd sector and CG for La Belle-de-Mai. Narducci is a close ally of the Godfather. The FG could make its mark here, where Mélenchon placed second with 19.9%. At any rate...
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

5th (Marseille-4, parts of 5 and 6, UMP)*: The new fifth includes all of the 4th arr. and the parts of the 5th and 6th which aren't included in the 4th constituency. This is a swing seat. Hollande won only 50.2% of the vote here on May 6. It is hard to give a sound descriptor to the whole of this constituency. The 4th arr. is a fairly middle-class area, with some bobo influences (Cinq-Avenues). The 5th arr. is also middle-class, with some more low-income or blue-collar areas. On the other hand, the 6th is an old bourgeois stronghold which is undergoing big sociological changes: Castellane and Lodi are attractive hip spots for the youth and students, and there is a big boboisation phenomenon at work. Hollande won the 6th arrondissement with 51% (though he might have lost outside of ND-du-Mont...), which was a major shock in this old right-wing stronghold. This is the big race in Marseille this year. On the right, Renaud Muselier, UMP incumbent in the old 5th since 1993, is running here. He is another ambitious right-winger in Marseille, and an influential political leader of the UMP in the department. He faces a more divided left. The PS candidate is junior minister Marie-Arlette Carlotti, CG for Les Cinqs-Avenues. The FG is behind Frédéric Dutoit, the former PCF deputy for the old 4th constituency, defeated in 2007. The far-right will probably not make a triangulaire here, where Marine won 18.8% which is probably a bit under what will be needed for the FN to qualify for the runoff.  The main fight is Carlotti/Muselier, which will certainly go down to the wire. A triangulaire would likely be very tough for the UMP, given that the FN vote around here generally transfers to the right in cases of UMP-PS runoffs. I'll cop out of predicting this one and choose the easy way out :)
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

I've already said what is interesting, but let's be more precise :) :
apart from Bouches-du-Rhône,
Oise
Meurthe-et-Moselle
Yonne
Hauts-de-Seine
Essonne
Val d'Oise
Gard
Hérault
Loire
Aisne
Doubs
are the first tier I think.
And probably in that order :P

After, that, if you've got time left:
Seine-et-Marne
Nord
Vaucluse
Val-de-Marne
Moselle
Drôme
Meuse
Pyrénées-Atlantiques
Réunion
Lot-et-Garonne
Haute-Loire
can be interesting too.

Thanks a lot for the work already done.
You should write a book :)

Pas-de-Calais: I agree with you for everything, especially on the 6th and the 12th, the PS-diss. will prevail in eahc case.
In the 7th, the PS will win: Hénin is a bit out-of-date now.
In the 11th, well, unfortunately, Mélenchon will probably prevail over the PS candidate :( and so end winning this stuff.

Bouches-du-Rhône: The 1st and the 5th are probably the GREATEST fights this year... So entertaining !
I think Boyer will win in the 1st by a small margin in a triangulaire (I may be the only man in France to make these subtle differences, but I think Boyer is more on the left of the Droite Populaire :P; she's not exactly FN-lite; she's more an opportunist that I've envisioned some time ago to be Gaudin's heir (and not Muselier). But it's more a hope than a real prediction, because Assante will hurt her very much.... :(
In the 5th, I predict a PS win over Muselier: Gaudin will kill him without saying it :P and Muselier is'nt a very good campaigner. Marseilles' inhabitants will like to have a minister, because they are frustrated for so long...
As for the 3rd, we may have an interesting scenario: a triangulaire with the UMP in the 3rd position and so hurting the FN. Otherwise, it could have been a winnable seat for the FN.

Bouches-du-Rhône

6th (Marseille-9, parts of 10, UMP)*: Loses the northern part of Les Pommes, gains most of La Capelette. It includes the large 9th and the remainders of the 10th arr. The 9th is a rather middle/upper middle class place all in all (especially Le Cabot and La Panouse), but it certainly includes some lower-income and more left-leaning areas (Baumettes, Sormiou). In the 9th, Sainte-Marguerite, and most of the 10th is not as affluent, it is more of a lower middle-class/suburban style found in the first constituency. An old white working-class in parts, today a poorer and more socially marginalized population of 'petits blancs'. Sarko won 56% here and Marine took 23% here, doing best around the north of the 9th and the 10th. The UMP incumbent since 1993 in the old sixth is Guy Tessier, mayor of the 5th sector. Despite his old age, he is running for yet another term. He should win rather easily, because he remains a popular incumbent with a good local record. The fact that the PS is backing an EELV candidate here, not of very high calibre, should also help matters. He is safe even in the event of a very likely triangulaire with the FN. Sarko had been way ahead on April 22 already.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

7th (Marseille-15, 16, parts of 14, PS)*: This seat includes all of the 15th and 16th arr. and parts of the 14th arr. in northwestern Marseille, the core left-wing stronghold in the city. This seat includes most of the old 4th constituency, which was a PCF stronghold between 1958 and 2007, when the PCF lost this seat to the PS' Henri Jibrayel. The 2007 election marked the first election since 1958 (when the PCF won only 10 seats, remember...) that Marseille had no PCF deputy. In 2008, the PCF lost control of the 8th sector of the city to the PS. This is an extremely poor "inner-city" type of seat. In some neighborhoods of the 15th, like Les Crottes (a fitting name...), I'd wager that the feel, both socially and economically, is closer to North Africa than to western Europe. This doesn't just mean that there's a big immigrant population - there is - but the economic and social conditions are hardly better than in Algeria. Unemployment almost always above 30%, about 40% or more with no diploma, almost all of the area covered by a ZUS and so forth. The 16th is similar: an old working-class area which is now deprived and marginalized. L'Estaque is a bit more bobo and trendy, but right next door Saint-André is a cité populaire. The parts of the 14th included in this constituency tell a similar story: cités populaires, ZUS, low-income, old working-class, very ethnically diverse (example: Le Font-Vert), super high unemployment, terrible education numbers and so forth. Hardly a place you'd like to live in. Politically, the left is super-dominant, with the FN usually a distant second and the UMP polling like the plague. Hollande won 67.1% here, in the first round Sarko won only 13%, behind Marine (23.2%). While there are tons of likely FN voters (old WWC types), there are basically no large communities of traditional UMP voters. The PCF, as aforementioned, used to be super-dominant in northern Marseille, but it has been losing rapidly in recent years. In 2007, the PCF incumbent in the old 4th, Frédéric Dutoit, won third place in the first round with only 19%, allowing the PS' Henri Jibrayel to topple this historic PCF stronghold, which had voted Communist with almost no interruptions since 1936 or so. This year, the race is on the left or at best left-FN. The FG is keen on reconquering this old Commie bastion which gave 18.6% to Melenchon on April 22. Jean-Marc Coppola, a regional councillor, is the FG's candidate here. He faces the PS incumbent, Jibrayel, but also an EELV candidate (Karim Zéribi) who is well implanted locally. The FN is running Bernard Marandat, who will try to make the runoff, but because of low turnout, he will likely need to place second in order to do so. On the left, the FG in the department is on bad terms with the PS and this could throw cold water on any PS-FG deals between June 10 and 17. A PS-FG-FN triangulaire is not impossible, but a PS-FN or FG-FN runoff could be more likely. I think Jibrayel can hold on here, but at any rate...
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

8th (Salon-de-Provence/Berre-l'Étang, notional UMP)*: The old eight was in Marseille, this new one covers the cantons of Salon, Berre-l'Étang and Pelissanne. This a fairly socially diverse constituency, but right-leaning overall. Sarko won 57.3% but Panzergirl won 25.1%. Berre-l'Étang is fairly left-wing, because it is a working-class and industrial city on the industrialized Étang de Berre (refineries, chemical industry). Marine won 29% there, Hollande then took 55.6%. Pelissanne and most of its canton (except for Lançon-Provence) are affluent suburbs for Aix or Marseille, so they are strongly right-wing though the FN is fairly weak. Salon-de-Provence is a more middle-class city, Marine won 24% despite a strong centrist tradition. This will be a race to follow. The left is divided. The PS is suffering from the contested candidacy of Olivier Ferrand, the president of the Terra Nova think-tank (which many on the left are critical of) who is originally from the area but with no political ties to the region. His suppleant, Jean Pierre Maggi, is a close ally of the Godfather. He does not any face dissident candidacies from the PS and has EELV's support. The UMP's candidate is a local, unlike the FN, PS and FG candidates: Nicolas Isnard, local councillor in Salon. A triangulaire is very likely, and this could be very bad for the right, even though Sarko was ahead here in the first round. I still think the UMP will pull through here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

9th (Aubagne/La Ciotat/Cassis, UMP): Unchanged constituency, still focused on Aubagne and its area. This constituency has shifted dramatically to the right. Sarko won 56.5% here. Aubagne used to be a fairly blue-collar town and a PCF stronghold - in fact, it is still ruled by the PCF. La Ciotat used to be a big shipbuilding capital until the 1980s, but since then, with a shift towards tourism and suburbanization, the right has gained the upper hand in the old PCF stronghold. Cassis, right next door, is a very affluent resort town, which gave no less than 72% to Sarkozy. Outside of these cities, this is a fairly affluent middle-class and very suburban constituency, with a pied-noir tradition (especially in Carnoux-en-Provence). Le Pen won 23.6%, strong but not exceptionally so. This seat was held by the PCF between 1962 and 2000, and never elected a right-winger until a 2000 by-election when the UDF's Bernard Deflesselles gained the seat from the PCF. He won easily against the FN in 2002 and then by the first round in 2007 with 51.8% in the first round. He is running again this year and enters as the favourite. The PS is backing EELV here, but the main left-wing candidate is likely Pierre Mingaud, the PCF mayor of La-Penne-sur-Huveaune. There remains a PCF tradition, Melenchon took over 18% in Aubagne and 14.2% in the constituency. The FN's Joëlle Melin seems to well implanted locally and will likely feature in a triangulaire, but I doubt the UMP would be seriously threatened in a triangulaire.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

10th (Gardanne/Allauch, UMP)*: Loses Le Pennes-Mirabeau and gains a part of Aix-SO (commune of Meyreuil). The old working-class town of Gardanne (a big aluminium/metallurgical plant), where the PCF remains quite strong (nearly 20% for Melenchon) and the suburban middle-class town of Allauch (the UMP and FN dominant) are the main towns in this constituency. Outside of Gardanne proper, this is a fairly middle-class suburban constituency, though this is more of a "periurbain subi" (people 'forced' out of Marseille) who resent long commutes, high commodity and property prices and who are big on immigration/security concerns. This has shifted right a lot in recent years, Sarko won 56% here and Marine won 25.3% in the first round (doing best in Allauch). The UMP's Richard Mallié gained this seat in 2002, defeating Roger Meï, the PCF incumbent since 1996. In 2007, he won reelection with 57.1% against Meï. As in Aubagne, this constituency had not elected a right-winger since 1958, even in 1993 it was held by... Bernard Tapie. In the past, PCF and PS alternated, with a slight advantage for the PCF. This year, the seat was conceded to EELV by the PS, but I would think that the FG's Yveline Primo, local councillor in Gardanne, is the main left-wing candidate here. There is an outside chance the left's division could exclude it from the runoff, but I doubt it. The FN will probably make a triangulaire here and do fairly well. It is a very tough race, but I'd think the right can narrowly hold on.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

11th (Les Pennes-Mirabeau/Aix-en-Provence sud, UMP)*: Gains Les Pennes-Mirabeau and a part of the city of Aix-en-Provence included in the NE canton but loses Meyreuil (but keeps all of the canton of Aix SO outside of that), Salon-de-Provence and Pelissanne. I haven't checked which part of the city of Aix is gerrymandered into this seat, but I have my own little idea (a ZUS...). Les Pennes-Mirabeau is a middle-class suburban town, formerly more blue-collar, but more of a lower middle-class white suburb nowadays full of FN voters (32% for Marine). Septèmes-les-Vallons is an old PCF stronghold. The rest of the constituency is much less frontiste: only 20.4% for Marine in the constituency, which gave 56.2% to Sarko. Why? It includes the affluent neighborhoods of Aix-en-Provence and its similarly affluent and professional upper middle-class suburbs (notice the difference in the canton of Pennes-Mirabeau between Pennes-Mirabeau and Cabriès...). The right in Aix is a world away from the right in Aubagne or Marignane: it is much less likely to go insane about immigration and security, it has a far more centrist/moderate/pro-European/social liberal penchant. After all, Aix is a uni town, very professional, fairly affluent and liberal in the social sense, perhaps even in the economic sense (to American readers: 'economic liberalism' is NOT economically left-wing!). The right has held the old 11th since 1988. Christian Kert has held this seat since then, winning over 61% in the 2007 runoff. He faces Gaëlle Lenfant, a PS regional councillor and defeated 2007 candidate. The FN will not make a triangulaire here, most likely, so it will probably be a 'duel' runoff. I think Kert can prevail.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

12th (Marignane/Vitrolles/Fascist Country, UMP)*: Basically loses Berre-l'Etang. It includes the fairly well-known (for unfortunate reasons) towns of Vitrolles and Marignane, which are famous for both having elected far-right mayors. Vitrolles, an historically left-leaning and low income working-class city, is now a lower middle-class suburb with crime/immigration/security/marginalization/cost of living concerns. Marignane is a right-wing city with a large pied noir population but a fairly similar social situation. The constituency also includes the canton of Châteauneuf-Côte-Bleue, which mixes some old working-class PCF strongholds (Le Rove) with wealthy suburbs/resorts (Carry-le-Rouet, Sausset-les-Pins) and more lower middle-class suburbs (Châteauneuf-les-Martigues). Sarko won 57.6% here, but Marine came first on April 22 with 29.9%, including 27% in Vitrolles, 35% in Marignane and 31% in Châteauneuf. The far-right has long been very strong here. Vitrolles elected a FN/MNR mayor in 1997, Catherine Mégret, the wife of Bruno Mégret, who turned Vitrolles into the family turf. Bruno the Nazi won 46% in the 1997 runoff against the PS here, and still took 18.6% as a MNR candidate in 2002 (but only 2% in 2007, lol). Catherine Mégret proved to be a terrible mayor who was bent on turning the city into a fascist dictatorship until she lost a 2002 by-election to the left. Marignane was ruled between 1995 and 2008 by Daniel Simonpieri, originally a megretiste FN member who shifted more to the UMP in his last years in office. If the FN is to win a seat here, it will obviously be here. The UMP incumbent since 2002 - in a seat which the right had never won prior to that - is Eric Diard, basically a FN-lite. He won 50.5% by the first round in 2007, and over 55% against the PS in a 2002 runoff. He faces Paul Cupolati (FN). The left is divided between Vincent Burroni, CG/mayor for Châteauneuf and a close friend of the Godfather; and Benjamin Durand, a anti-Godfather local councillor in Aubagne. The left's division could mean that, despite having a sizable base in places like Vitrolles, it could be eliminated by the first round, and Diard could defeat the FN in a mano-a-mano duel in the runoff. A triangulaire, however, would, like in 1993 and 1997, likely be fatal to the right here and open a window for the FN to actually win this seat. The scenario of a left-wing elimination by June 10 appears, in my opinion, fairly likely. A three-way race, for real, to watch.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup (left, right, far-right)

13th (Packing the Lefties in Martigues/Port-Saint-Louis/Fos-sur-Mer/Port-de-Bouc, PCF)*: Gains Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône, loses Istres-nord. Another good example of an "Indian reserve"/packing constituency. Marleix, probably looking beyond 2012, packed the leftie strongholds outside of Marseille into this constituency. It is a largely working-class and low-income constituency made up of the ugly polluted industrial cities of Martigues, Port-de-Bouc, Fos-sur-Mer and Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône (shipbuilding, refineries, chemical industry, metallurgy, harbour in Fos). Martigues, Port-de-Bouc and Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône are PCF strongholds; Martigues has elected PCF mayors since 1958. Port-de-Bouc and Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône gave a *plurality* to Melenchon on April 22 with 36.5% and 32% respectively. That day, Mélenchon won 21.5% in the constituency against 25.6% for Marine, 23.6% for Hollande and 19.5% for Sarko. Hollande won 55.1% in the runoff, including 61% in Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône and 67% in Port-de-Bouc. The right won the old 13th, a tad more right-wing, in 1993, but otherwise it has been a PCF/left bastion. In 2007, Michel Vaxes (PCF, inc since 1997) easily defeated the PS mayor of Fos, René Raimondi, in the first round (30.5% vs. 15.1%) and then won with 56% in the runoff. This year, he is retiring in favour of Gaby Charroux, the PCF CG/mayor of Martigues. Charroux faces a dissident PCF candidacy from Paul Lombard, mayor of Martigues between 1968 and 2009 and deputy between 1988 and 1993. Charroux must all wrestle against René Raimondi, the PS mayor of Fos and 2007 candidate. Charroux is likely the favourite, and the UMP's Michèle Vasserot, despite her very FN-lite attitudes, could be eliminated by the first round and open the path for either a FG-PS-FN runoff or FG-FN runoff. But the redistricting, adding Port-Saint-Louis, is very favourable to the PCF. I think the FG should hold on.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

14th (Aix-en-Provence nord, UMP)*: This seat only loses a part of the canton of Aix NE, noted above. It is centered around Aix, its very affluent suburbs and some more distant exurban/suburban parts in the cantons of Trets and Peyrolles. AFAIK, this seat includes the studenty leftie parts of Aix but also a lot of its more affluent and fairly solidly right-wing (with a negligible FN presence) in the cantons of Aix NE and Trets. The uniqueness of the Aixoise right was discussed above, it is also noteworthy to discuss the fact that Aix - this constituency in particular - has been shifting left while the rest of the 13 outside of Marseille has tacked very hard to the right/far-right. Sarko won, but only with 53%. Marine won only 17.1% here, doing poorly in Aix and even more poorly in its upper middle-class/affluent suburbs. The UMP incumbent since 2002, in a seat held by the right since 1988, is Maryse Joissains-Masini, the UMP mayor of Aix. She is vulgar, authoritarian and stupid but despite all that, and a heterogeneous PS-MoDem opposition front against her, she won the 2009 local by-elections very narrowly. She's old, but she is running again. The NC candidacy of the mayor of Châteauneuf-le-Rouge might hinder her a bit. She faces a local PS mayor, Jean-David Ciot, who might be hurt by his close ties to the Godfather. The FN won't make the runoff, so the runoff is likely UMP-PS. I would love for the vulgar old geezer to lose, but I'm fairly pessimistic.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

15th (Châteaurenard/Saint-Rémy-de-Provence, UMP): This seat gave 60.3% to Sarko, his second best result in the department. Its main towns are Châteaurenard and Saint-Rémy-de-Provence. This is basically suburban/exurban country split between Avignon, Marseille and Nimes. This region is generally lower middle/middle-class, with a large population of intermediate-grade professionals and employees. You guessed it: Marine did great here (26.5%). The right has been triumphant here since 1988. In 2007, the UMP mayor of Châteaurenard, Bernard Reynès, defeated longtime (since 1988) incumbent here, Léon Vachet. The runoff opposed these two right-wingers, the dissident won with 61.7%. Bernard Reynès is the big favourite for a second term, facing the leftie Nicette Aubert, a local councillor and ex-PCF, and the FN's Olivia Ponsdesserre. A UMP-FN runoff or a triangulaire is likely, but the right will win no matter what.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

16th (Camargue/Arles/Istres, PS)*: Loses Port-Saint-Louis but gains Istres-nord. The constituency's main cities are Arles, a fairly politically marginal city which is fairly poor and traditionally working-class (but at the local level it is ruled by the PCF), part of Istres which is a traditionally working-class PS stronghold, Miramas (a cite cheminote, afaik) and Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer (a right-wing resort town). The redistricting clearly aimed to make this seat a bit more marginal or even right-leaning. Sarko won 51.8% here, but in the first round he placed third because Marine took 27.8%. The incumbent since 2007 is the president of the region, Michel Vauzelle, who had already held the seat between 1988 and 1993 and 1997 and 2002. He won in a triangulaire in 1997, lost narrowly to the UMP mayor of Saintes-Maries Roland Chassain and defeated Chassain with 52.3% in the runoff. Roland Chassain is indeed running again, and in a 2007-like year, he would likely win because of the new boundaries. But this year? With a FN almost certain to make it a three-way (lol) with Valérie Laupies, Vauzelle should win fairly easily.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

In this case, I must disagree pretty strongly. From what I've been reading from people on the ground there and all, which is a big part of my research going into this (I do tons of research for this, hence why I won't finish all 577), it would appear as if the FG is the favourite. You might have the last laugh, but forced to choose, I'd go FG.

Hope you're right with Hénin: that would be fun ;)

If you don't mind and even if it's pretty useless, as I don't put any explicit reason, here is my updated map:
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With territorial continuity :P

It makes me think that some constituencies are of interest in some uninteresting departements:
Aveyron 3rd
Ardèche 3rd
Jura 3rd
Côte d'Or 2nd
Gironde 8th and 10th
Vosges 2nd and 4th (unfortunately, I think Lang will be lected :()
Cher 1st (of course !)
and Lozère, after all.... :P

Aude 2nd and Haute-Garonne 3rd and 9th are only interesting because we don't know which leftist will win.

Sorry to insist, but why don't you just cut your comments ?!?


Anyways...

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Safe left : 57
Left favored : 6
Lean left : 7
Left : 70

Tossup - left edge : 10
Pure tossup : 7
Tossup - right edge : 13
Tossup : 30

Lean right : 15
Right favored : 13
Safe right : 15
Right : 43

2007 : Left 66 / Right 83.

Besides being notoriously bad at being concise, there are just way too many interesting things to say about each seat that long comments end up being useful for those who want to understand what's going on. I might do more if I just told you who the candidates were and gave a raw prediction, but that would be incomplete, boring, uninformative and as useless as the stupidities posted by journalists. If people actually want to understand the details of this election, then they ought to understand the 'local elections' going on in each constituency. If you want superficial numbers and colourful maps, look up the candidacies yourself and make a map based on your hunches and past results.

One 'solution' (though very much time dependent) is to write detailed predictions of areas of special interest, and to put together a prediction map as well. Though, again, it's your free time.

That's your choice. I have to admit I was primarily looking for a guide of the seats to watch on election day. The detailed geographical and sociological description of each constituency is a great bonus, but I could live without it (especially since you still do it even after the election is over, while predictions are useful before). I have to disagree that a more succint comment accompained by your prediction would be "uninteresting". But anyways, it's your choice since you are the one working at this.

Hash is right. "Unfortunately" right, we can say. It's because the deadline to put your candidacy in the prefecture is so late that, to be insightful and serious, as Hash wants very rightly to do (because it's histrademark and it's his added value: otherwise, his work wouldn't be so priceful), you don't have enough time in just 3 weeks.
I myself wanted the 577 to be covered but haven't realized that we were so late in May :P

Or, Hash should have worked on constituencies months ago and adjusted his predictions with the real list of candidates.
Well, usually, for this type of work, you are heavily paid and sometimes, it's even your job :P ;D

Bouches-du-Rhône:
In the 12th, I think it will be a duel between FN and UMP (or FN and FN-lite in this case, if you want ;))
I even think that the left might be expelled from the run-off in the 8th, 9th and 10th due to divisions and bad results.
OK with you for everything, except the 14th. Joissains has made many mistakes in her municipal governance and people are fed up, I think. That's purely a feeling... But you should keep your hopes high, here ;D

Very, very great stuff on Bouches-du-Rhône, Hash. Probably the most difficult department to do, with Nord, Gard sometimes (I don't know this year: still have to do it), Corse and some overseas territories :P

Ugh, I hate doing this and this feels dirty, but I guess I feel constrained to swoop down to media pundit levels and give superficial profiles. If I don’t give any sociological precisions, it’s not because I can’t but because it doesn’t seem to be necessary for the people who read this :( From now on, this will suck balls, and I apologize to people like Fab, but life sucks… I hope the armchair critics will be pleased by this newish format.
 
Gard
2007: 3 UMP, 1 NC, 1 PS

1st (Nîmes/Beaucaire, NC)*: Nicely gerrymandered constituency. It loses Nîmes-4 and 5 but gains the canton of Beaucaire. Sarko won 52.2% here, due entirely to strong results in Vistrenque and Beaucaire, lower middle-class suburbs of Nice in the Rhône valley with a strong FN base (Marine: 25.5% in the first round here, but 34% in Beaucaire!). This gerrymandered seat includes two left-wing ‘populaire’ cantons of Nîmes, the 6th (65% Hollande) and 3rd (56% Hollande). The PCF held this seat between 1997 and 2002 with the former mayor of Nîmes Alain Clary, but since 2002 it has been held by the NC’s Yvan Lachaud. In 2007, he won reelection with 57% in the runoff against the PS, which had narrowly outpaced Clary in the first round. Lachaud is running again, but the right is divided because of the candidacy of the PRV mayor of Beaucaire, Jacques Bourbousson. On the left, the PS should easily be dominant, with the 2007 candidate, Françoise Dumas, a local and regional councillor who benefits from EELV’s backing. The FN, near-certain to make a triangulaire, is represented by Julien Sanchez, a regional councillor. The FN cannot win here, but a triangulaire in which the right suffers from first round division could be fatal to Lachaud. The PS has a real chance here, unfortunately for Marleix’s scissors.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
2nd (Saint-Gilles/Aigues-Mortes/Vauvert/Camarague gardoise, UMP)*: Loses Beaucaire and Marguerittes, gains Sommières. This constituency, which gave 56% to Sarko but above all else gave Marine 28.9% and comfortable first place on April 22, is one of the FN’s top targets. This seat includes the low-lying lands of the ‘Camargue gardoise’ with its big fruit farms (and fruit farmers love ‘em some FN) and the lower middle-class exurb/suburb towns of Saint-Gilles, Vauvert and Aigues-Mortes. The FN has always been very strong, Saint-Gilles, which gave over 35% to Panzergirl, was the first city to be ruled by the FN, between 1989 and 1992. In 1997 and 2002, the FN featured in triangulaires in the old second, the first of which resulted in a narrow PS win and the second of which, in 2002, resulted in a narrow win by Étienne Mourrut (who won reelection in 2007 with nearly 60% against the PS). The famous lawyer Gilbert Collard is running for the FN this year, against Mourrut and the PS’ Katy Guyot. The left has been seriously weakened here in the past decade(s) or so, and Hollande took about 22% in the first round. The absence of an EELV candidate helps the PS, but it is possible that the runoff would be just UMP-FN, in which case Mourrut would likely win. However, Collard should hope for a triangulaire in which he might well be the favourite, benefiting from his fairly moderate image for a FN candidate and the incumbent’s share of problems. I’ll cop-out, again, from a solid prediction here, but I’d either be safe and say the UMP narrowly pulls this one out or Collard pulls a rabbit out of the hat and wins here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup (right-left-far-right)
 
3rd (Villeneuve-lès-Avignon/Bagnols-sur-Cèze, UMP)*: Loses Uzès and Pont-Saint-Esprit. Sarko took 55.3% here, Marine won second place behind him with 25.9% in the first round. Besides Villeneuve-lès-Avignon which are more affluent and less frontiste-voting suburbs of Avignon, this region is a largely suburban/exurban region, fairly middle-class and usually white-collar. The left retains some strength here, especially in Bagnols-sur-Cèze. Since 2002, the seat has been held by the UMP’s Jean-Marc Roubaud, mayor of Villeneuve-lès-Avignon. He should not face much trouble winning reelection this year, even in the high likelihood of a triangulaire with the FN, like in 1997 or 2002. The PS candidate is Patrice Prat, CG for Roquemaure.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
4th (Alès-est/Pont-Saint-Esprit, UMP)*: Lots of boundary changes here: loses Génolhac, Grand-Combe, Bessèges but gains Pont-Saint-Esprit. Hollande won 51.7% here, and Sarko had placed a distant third in the first round with only 22.4%, with Marine winning the constituency with 25.8%. This is a weird and incoherent constituency, taking two eastern cantons of Alès, the ‘capital’ of the Cévennol mining basin, and extending all the way to the Rhône in the canton of Pont-Saint-Esprit. It ends up mixing from lower-lying and lower middle-class suburbs/exurbs (cantons of Saint-Chaptes, Pont-Saint-Esprit) with some old mining cantons (Saint-Ambroix, Alès NE). Marine’s result was surprisingly strong in this constituency, which has not usually been one of the FN’s strongest in the department. Since 2002, the seat has been held by the UMP mayor of Alès, Max Roustan. The seat’s old boundaries had been more conducive to electing PCF members, which it did in 1988 and 1997. In 2007, Roustan won 53.2% in the runoff against the former PCF deputy. Though Mélenchon won 15.2% here, the loss of Grand-Combe and Génolhac will hurt the FG candidate, Édouard Chaulet, PCF mayor/CG of Barjac. The PS’ Fabrice Verdier, mayor of Fons-sur-Lussan, should dominate on the left. A triangulaire with the FN is quite likely, but I think that in either scenarios, Roustan is about toast. He’s a fairly useless deputy and the seat leans to the left.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)
 
5th (Cévennes/Grand-Combe/Alès-ouest, PS)*: Loses Sommières, gains Génolhac, Grand-Combe, Bessèges. Hollande won 56.7% in this seat, whose raison-d’être, for Marleix, was to be a packing-the-lefties constituency. It mixes some PCF strongholds in the old mining basin (Grand-Combe, Génolhac – Mélenchon took 24% and 25% in those two cantons) with some other left-wing strongholds in the Cévennes, a left-wing region overall, in good part due to heavy Protestant (Calvinist) influences. The cantons of Quissac, Saint-Mamert-du-Gard and Lédignan (Anduze and Sauve to a lesser extent) are in Nîmes’s suburban/exurban influence and tend to give the FN (Marine won 22.8% in the 5th, her weakest in the Gard) its strongest results, while the Cévennes, still largely rural, remain, on the whole, more resistant to the FN and retain their left-wing traditions. This is the only PS seat in the department, held by William Dumas since 2004. The right only won it in 1993. Dumas is running again, but the Greens and FG, which are both fairly strong in this constituency (especially the FG, Mélenchon won 17.8%), have strong candidates. The EELV candidate is the Green CG/mayor of Le Vigan, with the CG for Anduze as his running mate. The FG, which can count on the mining cantons in the north, is backing the PCF CG for Alès W. The right will not be a significant factor, and I do not think that the FN will qualify for the runoff.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
6th (Nîmes/Uzès, notional UMP)+: This new constituency includes three cantons of Nîmes, Uzès and Marguerittes. It includes more affluent and right-leaning neighborhoods of Nîmes (though one of the cantons of Nîmes included here voted for Hollande), the city of Uzès (fairly marginal politically, but it voted for Hollande, though the canton did not) and the lower middle-class suburban canton of Marguerittes, where Marine won over 31%. The seat is basically crafted to elect a right-winger. Sarko placed first in both rounds, winning 53.1% in the runoff. Marine, while strong in Marguerittes, was quite a bit weaker in Nîmes and Uzès, so she only won 24.4% in this seat overall. UMP MEP Franck Proust, a former CG, is the favourite in this new constituency. On the left, the PS is backing the EELV CG for Saint-Chaptes, and there is an outside chance that he could win, but I would bet heavily on the UMP. The FN can probably qualify for the runoff here, but I doubt a triangulaire here would prove particularly dangerous for the UMP.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

Lozère
2007: 2 UMP
 
At-large (Lozère, notional UMP)*: Sparsely populated and still heavily rural (and in parts even agricultural) Lozère lost its second seat in the redistricting, so for the first time ever, two departments – Creuse and Lozère – will be returning only one member. In the past, tradition dictated that each department should have two seats. Up until the turn of the century, this seat would have reserved no suspense. Lozère, a Catholic region save for the anti-clerical, Protestant and uber-leftie Cévennes, has usually been a core conservative bastion. This year, however, Sarko only won the department by some 50 votes, with Hollande winning 49.95%, certainly one of the most ‘shocking’ results of May 6. The department had already elected a PS deputy in 1997, in 2008 the left gained the main town, Mende (at the core of the left’s big gains) and in 2011 the long-time baron of the right, Jacques Blanc, lost his Senate seat to the PS mayor of Mende, Alain Bertrand who easily won a senatorial by-election this year. Hollande won nearly 70% in the Cévennes, and though he lost heavily in the Catholic high plateaus of the northeast (Aubrac and Margeride), he won big in Mende (56%...) and even in right-wing towns such as Marvejols, Chanac or Sainte-Enimie. The department remains very rural. The loss of the second seat has created a bad civil war climate on the right between the two UMP incumbents: Francis Saint-Léger, the ‘official’ candidate, member of the Droite pop; and Pierre Morel à-l’Huissier, mayor/CG of Fournels, the dissident, closer to the humanist/centre-right/Wauquiez-ite wing of the UMP. There is also an independent right-wing candidate, Vincent Mathieu. Saint-Léger’s suppléant is the CG/mayor of Saint-Chély. The left’s main candidate is the PS’ Sophie Pantel, CG/mayor of Le-Pont-de-Montvert. This will be a very close race. A triangulaire, UMP-UMP-PS is possible, and the FN could do fairly well, Marine having won over 17% on April 22. The right’s division could leave scars on the UMP, even if there is superficial unity on the right on June 17. Fab says my predictions are too conservative, so I’ll make a fairly daring prediction here... I think the PS pulls this out, and makes history (kind of). In any case, I was thinking about how the first round map by canton here will be fun.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

You can always go into more detail about individual seats - especially if they've had interesting results - when the dust has settled.

Anyways, Lolzère.

Well, if the "democracy" is reigning even here, what can I do ? :( :P

Loire is really, really "fun" BTW.

Glad to see that Lozère is on the left for you, because, tonight I've just changed it on my map :) (yeah, they'll kill each other those 2 rightist incumbents...)

As for Gard, I predict a duel in the 2nd, with the UMP able to kill this a**h*ole lawyer.
I disagree in the 3rd: a triangulaire will kill the UMP, I think.
But I unfortunately agree with you on the 1st: the right is divided.
OK for the rest.

I'm not, nor is Fab.

I'll survive ;)

Again, my list of priorities changes !
Hauts-de-Seine has some interesting cases: Santini in the 10th (I think he'll lose !), Devedjian in the 13th (he should prevail); also the 2nd, the 12th and even the 5th (but Balkany will probably win again).

Loire and Ardennes are really weird in my predictions I think: you own thoughts will be very much welcome. See how I need you ;D :

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Isère 10th is a constituency to look at, too.

Jesus Christ. People will either have to learn to live with the way I'm doing this and stop being armchair critics; or I'll stop doing these altogether and just post a colourful map. I'm already killing all the free time I could have and working every single available minute on this, and I don't find this all that enjoyable of a thing to do after a busy day at work. If you still complain, then please do it yourself.

...

Hérault
 
1st (Montpellier/Lattes, UMP^)*: Loses the 1st and 4th canton of Montpellier but gains the commune of Villeneuve-lès-Maugelone (canton of Frontignan) and the 8th canton of Montpellier. Hollande won by the skin of his teeth here, with 50.4% of the votes. This constituency is divided between Montpellier, which leans heavily to the left, and Lattes, an affluent coastal resort canton (Palavas-les-Flots) which is solidly right-wing. This seat takes in some more lower middle-class urban parts of Montpellier in the south and, I believe, a ZUS. Lattes proper is a bit more marginal, but voted for Sarko by a comfortable margin while Palavas gave nearly 65% to Sarko. The old first elected a Socialist only once, in 1997, thanks to a triangulaire with the FN’s Jean-Claude Martinez. In 2002, the UMP mayor of Palavas, Christian Jeanjean, won the seat and upon his retirement in 2007 he was succeeded by Jacques Doumergue, who won 52.2% in the runoff. This year, Doumergue is retiring and Jeanjean is running again – with the UMP’s support. He had led, in 2010, a dissident list in the regionals which won only 2% of the votes. Though not very dangerous electorally, it is interesting to note that Patrice Drevet, the greenish ex-weatherman is running for the PRV. Jeanjean faces, notably, Jean-Louis Roumégas, EELV local councillor in Montpellier and main regional leader for the Greens. Roumégas benefits from Solférino’s backing, but must first defeat Cyril Meunier, DVG mayor/CG of Lattes, backed by the local PS. The left can definitely win here, especially if the FN’s Alain Jamet can qualify for the runoff. Marine won 20.8% here, doing best in Palavas (27%) and Villeneuve-lès-Maugelone. It is possible, but not all that likely, that the FN will make the runoff. Roumégas is stronger than the average EELV candidate backed by the PS, and this constituency, while not a EELV bastion, is fairly good territory for the Greens. I don’t know who on the left will come out on top, but it will be a close race to follow.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
2nd (Montpellier Salamander, PS^)*: Loses Montpellier’s 2nd and 10th cantons but gains the 1st and 3rd cantons, to create an ugly looking squid/salamander constituency, an Indian reserve for the lefties. Hollande won 65.3% in this constituency, including 73% in Montpellier-9 (the ZUS of La Paillade) and 66% in Montpellier-1 (studentish/bobo downtown). Montpellier itself is a left-wing stronghold since 1977. It has a large student/bobo/young/public sector white-collar population, and is generally middle-class though it has its share of ZUS. The old second was won by the right in 1993 and 2002. In 2002, Doumergue (UMP) had narrowly defeated Georges Frêche, who had won the seat in 1997. In 2007, the powerful PS president of the CG, André Vézinhet – now a “anti-Frêchiste” – won back the seat for the left with 53.9% in the runoff. The redistricting, of course, makes this a left-wing bastion, more so than in the past. Vézinhet is retiring, the PS’ Anne-Yvonne Le Dain is the favourite to succeed him. The Greens (4% for Joly here, not too shabby considering…) and the FG (16.8% for Mélenchon) will be aiming to do quite well. The FG candidate is René Revol, the PG mayor of Grabels and top candidate for the FG in the 2010 regionals. Marine won only 11.6% here, so no triangulaire!
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Montpellier-nord/Castelnau-les-Lez, UMP)*: This seat gains Montpellier-2, but loses Montpellier-3, parts of Lunel (including Lunel proper) and the canton of Mauguio. Hollande won 50.5% in this constituency, due to his 59% in Montpellier-2, which includes the studentish and uni neighborhoods of the city. Indeed, Sarko narrowly dominated Hollande in the suburban parts of the constituency – Castelnau-le-Lez and the canton of Castries. These are upper middle-class, white-collar professional suburbs. The FN is fairly weak overall by local standards; Marine took only 17.6% here. The old third had been won once, in 1997, by the PS. Since 2002 it has been held by Jean-Pierre Grand, a prominent villepiniste and UMP mayor of Castelnau-le-Lez. Grand won 56.7% in the 2007 runoff. He should win a third term this year, facing fairly weak PS opposition (a regional and local councillor, Fanny Dombre-Coste). The FN should not be in a position to qualify for a triangulaire runoff.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
4th (Larzac/Garrigues/Lodève, PRV-UMP)*: This seat loses Montpellier-10, Pignan, Clermont-l’Hérault and Lunas. This seat includes affluent suburbs of Montpellier (cantons of Les Matelles, Aniane, parts of Saint-Martin-de-Londres, Claret) and some growing exurbs (cantons of Mèze, Gignac). Higher up, in the Larzac and Garrigues, the main town is Lodève, a regional centre for a fairly poor and economically troubled semi-rural region. There is a strong socialist and left-wing tradition in the arrière-pays of the Hérault, which allowed Hollande to win 52.4% here. Marine had won 22.1% here, doing best (28%) in the canton of Mèze but also in the Lodevois; though she did quite poorly in Les Matelles. Hollande performed best in the arrière-pays (Larzac and Lodevois) but lost in the canton of Mèze, which has a fairly amusing political history. The old fourth was a left-leaning seat until the UMP’s Robert Lecou won it for the first time in 2002. In 1988, that seat had elected Frêche, who fell victim to a PS dissident in 1993. In 2007, Lecou won 51.7% in the runoff. In 2008, he lost his seat as mayor of Lodève to the PS. He faces Frédéric Roig, the PS CG for Le Caylar. There's an outside chance the FN qualifies for the runoff (3-way), but Jean-Claude Martinez's dissident candidacy might draw a few FN votes away and make way for a normal 2-way. Yves Pietrasanta, the leader of GE and former Green mayor of Mèze, is running here for GE with the PRG's support. In any case, I have a rather hard time seeing Lecou survive.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)

5th (Biterrois/Minervois/Vallée de l'Orb/Escandorgue, PS)*: Gains Lunas, Clermont-l'Hérault; loses Servian, Pézenas, Florensac. Hollande won 55.1% in this seat, and Marine won 24% in the first round. The right - and the FN - perform best in the lower middle-class suburban/exurban cantons of Capestang, Murviel-Les-Béziers (Roujan and Montagnac to a lesser extent). These two cantons are located more in the lowlands around Béziers than in the mountainous regions which make up the most of the seat. In general, the arrière-pays here is solidly left-wing. Hollande broke 60% in three inland cantons. Again, the leftie tradition is old and very strong in this region, which is in good part a fairly poor wine-growing region. This is an old left-wing stronghold, parts of this region having been represented by the PS or PCF since 1958 with only one or two interruptions. The old fifth voted for the right only in 1993. Since 2002 it has been held by the PS' Kléber Mesquida, a locally influential 'baron'. Mesquida faces only testimonial opposition. The FN will probably qualify for a triangulaire but won't be all that super powerful.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

6th (Béziers, UMP): A nice and coherent seat which keeps the whole of Béziers together. Sarko won 53.9%, Marine had placed first on April 22 with 27.8%. Béziers has a left-wing or RadSoc past, and at one time the PCF was quite powerful in the region, a core wine-making region. But, economic decline and economic changes (old people, tourism) has shifted the region to the right quite dramatically. Above all, the FN remains very influential in this region, which despite a few resort towns, remains largely lower middle-class, fairly suburbanized and faces major economic problems (unemployment) and has concerns about security and immigration. The FN won 25% in 1997, and allowed the former PS deputy, Alain Barrau, to defeated the UDF incumbent, Raymond Couderc. In 2002 and 2007, Paul-Henri Cugnenc (UMP) was victorious. He took 57.7% in 2007. Since his death in 2007, the seat has been held by Elie Aboud (UMP) who is running again. The runoff will either be a UMP-FN affair (Hollande placed third with 24% in April), with the FN's Guillaume Vouzellaud likely to poll quite strongly. The left here seems quite weak. The FG-PCF candidate is Paul Barbazange, the PS' Dolorès Roqué is only a local councillor. The left could still win in a triangulaire de la mort, like in 1997, but its crop, to me, seems weak.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
7th (Sète/Bassin de Thau/Cap-d'Agde, UMP)*: Gains Servian, Pézenas, Florensac but loses Mèze and Frontignan. The new seat is thus largely recentered on Sète, a large harbour and former PCF stronghold in the department. Sarko won 53.5% here, and Marine placed second behind him on April 22 with 26.2%. Sète remains a fairly poor and lower middle-class town, but it has an aging population attracted to the coast and the left has lost strength in the area at a fairly rapid pace. The Cap-d'Agde remains an attractive tourist spot, and is very right-wing, but is surprisingly fairly poor in terms of median income. The FN polled best in Servian, Florensac and Agde. The first two cantons have a large population of downtrodden lower middle-class old WWC/petits blancs who are largely compelled to commute long distances to work. The left held this seat for ages, the right won it in 1993 but the PCF mayor of Sète, François Liberti won it in 1997 and managed to survive in 2002 thanks to a triangulaire with the FN. In 2007, however, the UMP mayor of Agde Gilles d'Ettore defeated Liberti, taking 52.7% in the runoff. The PCF lost the city of Sète, which was its last remaining major city in the department, in 2001. Gilles d'Ettore is running for a second term, and is likely the favourite. The left is weak and divided, the FG's candidate is Sébastien Andral, a local councillor in Sète, while the PS' Sébastien Denaja is a total unknown. The FN, represented by its regional leader France Jamet, will likely make the triangulaire. Like in 2002, it could be fatal for the right, but the left's field is quite weak so I think the right can hold on here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

8th (Frontignan/Pignan/Montpellier, notional UMP)+: This new seat is a nice salamander which includes part of the canton of Frontignan, the Montpellier suburban canton of Pignan and Montpellier-10. Hollande won 51.7%, taking 56% in Montpellier-10 and 50.6% in Pignan. He also won Frontignan proper, a fairly blue-collar coastal town. Marine took 23.1% in this constituency, including 29% in the canton of Frontignan and 25% in Pignan. The goal here was likely to create a right-wing constituency, but the seat's first member could very well be a left-winger. The FN will likely qualify for the runoff and this could help the PS candidate, Christian Assaf, of which I know nothing about. The UMP candidate is Arnaud Julien, the departmental president of the UMP and 2007 candidate in the second constituency. I want to write more, but I don't know what to say that without going into details which nobody cares about.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

9th (Mauguio/Lunel/Grande-Motte/Montpellier, notional UMP)+: This new seat includes Montpellier-4, a lower middle-class area which is heavily leftie (over 60% for Hollande) and then takes in the canton of Mauguio, including the middle-class suburban city of Mauguio, home to a large Spanish population, the ugly resort town of La Grande-Motte (a UMP stronghold, you guessed it) and the south of the fairly low-income and suburban/exurban canton of Lunel, where the FN is very strong (27%). Overall, Sarko won 51.7% and Marine took a less impressive 22.7%. The UMP candidate in this seat is Stéphan Rossignol, the UMP mayor of La Grande-Motte and regional councillor. His PS opponent is Patrick Vignal, CG for Montpellier-4. The FN's Joseph Castano might qualify for the runoff, but I would not bet heavily on it. In a normal UMP-PS runoff, the UMP would have to be the favourite.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

Haute-Loire
2007: 2 UMP

1st (Yssingelais/Mezenc/Le Puy-est, UMP): Sarko won here with only 50.2% of the vote. Historically, this was a right-wing stronghold, because of its rural nature mixed in with clerical Catholicism. Jacques Barrot, a prominent Christian democrat, represented the area between 1967 and 2004, when he was succeeded by another right-winger of national stature, Laurent Wauquiez (UMP). Wauquiez won by the first round in 2007, with 58.1%. The right performs best in rural areas, but in the troubled and marginalized industrial working-class basin of Yssingeaux (including Aurec-sur-Loire and Sainte-Sigolène) in the north, which is increasingly in the exurban influence of St-Etienne, it has faced tough FN competition for quite some time. Marine won over 22% in this constituency, but peaked at 27-28% in the Yssingelais. The left has been growing because of suburban growth in Le Puy-en-Velay's eastern middle-class suburbs. Usually, the left found strength in the secularized working-class town of Retournac (55% for Hollande in the canton) and in some Protestant spillovers in the canton of Tence. In 2012, Hollande did extremely well (58-60%) in Le Puy's eastern suburbia. Laurent Wauquiez faces a surprisingly tough fight. The PS conceded this seat to EELV, which is backing a regionalist :) from the POC, Gustave Alirol. However, the dissident candidacy of the PS CG for Aurec-sur-Loire, Guy Vocanson, will likely prove more powerful. The FN's Pierre Cheynet could, in theory, make this a triangulaire but it seems like a remote possibility rather than a likelihood. Wauquiez should win narrowly.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

2nd (Brioude/Le Puy-ouest, UMP): Hollande won 53.2% here, in what has always been the most left-wing constituency in the formerly right-wing stronghold of Haute-Loire. The left's base has always been the secularized working-class town of Brioude and the Brivadois mining basin (Auzon). Hollande won 60% in Brioude proper and 66% in the canton of Auzon. The left's influence has also been quite strong in the Allier valley (Paulhaguet). Again, Le Puy - here the western suburbs - has seen major left-wing gains in recent years, as the outskirts turn into suburbs attractive for middle-class families and the like, less in touch with the conservative traditions of the Velay. The right remains dominant in the Catholic highlands of the Margeride. This seat has usually leaned to the right. It elected a Socialist in... 1967 (and a 1976 by-election) but since 1978 it has been held by the UDF-UMP Jean Proriol. He won 52.6% in 1997 and 53.6% in 2007. He is retiring this year. The UMP candidate is Jean-Pierre Vigier, a local mayor, backed by the UMP CG for Solignac-sur-Loire. The PS' André Chapaveire is a regional councillor, his suppleant is the PS CG for Le Puy-nord. The left stands an historic chance at winning this seat, held only twice since 1958, both for very short period of times.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

That's why I'm an utterly anti-democratic man ;D

Anyway, Val-de-Marne 6th will be very hard fought.

Really, Loire and Ardennes: you don't lose your time, because you'll enjoy almost every constituency.
At least, there is more fun for you.

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Hérault... This is where your work is priceless.
I agree on almost everything: I think that in the 6th and 7th, the right may well be in the runoff only against the FN and so will win. In the 4th, Pietrasanta alone can't harm the PS candidate. In the 8th, the PS will win in a triangulaire.
(BTW, for the moment -but that's just a feeling-, I don't find that there are SO many "triangulaires de la mort" for the UMP: after all, Marleix may well have better worked than I thought ;D)

I disagree with you on the 1st, with another "triangulaire fatale" for the UMP (and Roumégas is stronger than the low name-recognition PS candidate), and on the 9th, again a PS win in a triangulaire
(oh, just as I've said that, 3 "bad" triangulaires :()

These departments (Gard, Hérault) are really socially and humanly awful, but electorally fascinating.

I'm OK for Haute-Loire.

So, I see you are marching on Loire with all your troops ;)

You don't have to feel constrained to do your work in a certain way. It's your work and you are free to do it as you prefer. But whatever you might say, I think it's still very interesting this way.

Anyways...

()

Safe left : 60
Left favored : 6
Lean left : 9
Left : 75

Tossup - left edge : 14
Pure tossup : 8
Tossup - right edge : 16
Tossup : 38

Lean right : 20
Right favored : 13
Safe right : 15
Right : 48

2007 : Left 69 / Right 96.

LOL, I can't believe Lozère could have a 100% left-wing parliamentary delegation. :D

BTW, I had noticed you asked me but forgot to answer :



Not bad at all, if you ask me. :) Of the 45 départements, 39 went out as you had predicted. Also, no significant bias was identifiable, as the left got only 1.5 seat more than what the average of your predictions indicated.

No you understand why I'm so eager to have your prediction complete ? ;)

Ooh nice, Auvergne. I want more of that. And the Nord. :)

Yes, that. In both cases.

Loire
2007: 5 UMP, 2 PS, 1 NC
 
1st (Saint-Étienne nord, PS): This seat remains unchanged. Hollande won 56.2% here. This seat includes some poorer and old working-class areas in Saint-Étienne, including the ZUS of Montreynaud in the north of the city or the old miners neighborhood of Outre-Furans. Outside city limits, it includes the old mining villages of Roche-la-Molière, Saint-Genest-Lerpt, Villars or Saint-Jean Bonnefonds. The left retains an edge in some of these cities, but old working-class traditions have started being replaced by white-collar suburban growth. Saint-Étienne is a working-class city, but has never been a solidly left-wing stronghold. It has tended to shift to the left in recent years, Hollande won about 59% in the city. The centrist Christian democratic tradition used to be strong here, represented by the likes of Michel Durafour. Between 1958 and 2007, with the exception of 1981 and 1997, this seat was held by various centrist or UDF deputies. In 1997, the UDF fell victim to a triangulaire with the FN, allowing the PS to win this seat. In 2002, the UDF’s Gilles Artigues reclaimed this seat for the right in a narrow race. However, in 2007, having joined Bayrou’s MoDem, Artigues lost by the first round, placing third with 20.8%. His votes, however, did not help the UMP’s case. In the runoff, the PS’ Régis Juanico won with 52.1%. Juanico faces a rematch with Artigues this year, but this year Artigues benefits from the official endorsement of the UMP. There is some resentment against Artigues in the UMP because, despite his recent return to right-wing roots, in 2008 his candidacy in the local elections in the city led to the defeat of the UMP incumbent, Michel Thiollière. Artigues won the canton of Saint-Étienne-NE-2 in 2008 from the PCF, and his support is crucial for the UMP in the general council. Thiollière, bitter at 2008, is backing a right-wing dissident, Éric Berlivet (CNIP). Artigues is, like Rodolphe Thomas in the Calvados, a strong candidate for the centre-right in a left-leaning seat, but the seat is too left-leaning for him to actually win. Marine won 19.5% here, a strong result but likely not enough to guarantee the FN a spot in a 3-way runoff. The PS should hold on here, without sweating too much.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured
 
2nd (Saint-Étienne sud, PS)*: Gains Saint-Étienne-SO-2. Hollande won this entirely stéphanois seat with 57.5%, his best result in the department. This constituency includes some old working-class areas of the city, including former mining neighborhoods in the old faubourgs. Hollande broke 60% in two cantons here. Again, however, this region – despite being traditionally proletarian – has never really been a left-wing stronghold. The second was the Gaullist’ Lucien Neuwirth’s seat between 1958 and 1981. 1981 and 2007 are the only two elections in which the seat has returned a PS member. In 1997, the RPR survived a difficult triangulaire with the FN and won somewhat comfortably in 2002. However, in 2007, longtime UMP incumbent Christian Cabal fell victim to the PS’ Jean-Louis Gagnaire. The PS won over 54% in the runoff. Gagnaire should win a second term easily. The UMP’s candidate is a nobody and there is nobody else of local relevance standing here. Marine won only 17.5% or so here, so the FN, unlike in 1997, will not make the runoff.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Saint-Chamond/Vallée du Gier, NC): This seat too is left unchanged. The main cities here are Saint-Chamond and Rive-de-Gier in the Gier valley. The Gier valley has historically been a very industrial areas, with a mix of mining throughout the valley but also a big metallurgical/ironworks industry in Saint-Chamond and Rive-de-Gier. The latter remains a very working-class city to this day and is quite economically deprived. Saint-Chamond and Grand-Croix. On the other hand, the canton of Saint-Héand, lying to the north of the stéphanois metropolis, is an affluent middle-class suburb of Saint-Étienne. In political terms, this seat returned only one Socialist since 1958, in 1981. The city of Saint-Chamond, despite its very proletarian nature, was the stronghold of the independents and their leader, Antoine Pinay, who was mayor of the city between 1929 and 1977. Rive-de-Gier is usually more left-wing, having been held by the PCF between 1977 and 1995 but by the right since then. Hollande, however, won 50.1% here, winning the valley cantons (but losing big in Saint-Héand). He actually won Saint-Chamond proper with 54%, Grand-Croix with 59% and Rive-de-Gier with 63%. Marine won 22.8% here, a strong but not exceptional showing, doing best in the non-urban parts of the valley but still taking 23.5% in Saint-Chamond. The seat has been held since 1988 by the UDF-NC’s François Rochebloine, who survived a 1997 triangulaire by over 10 points and won by about 20 points in the 2007 runoff. He is running again but he is in a very precarious position. Despite being backed by the UMP, he is the underdog in a ‘right-wing primary’ against Hervé Reynaud, CG for Saint-Chamond-Nord since 2011 – when he defeated Rochebloine himself, in office since 1989 in that canton, in the cantonal elections. His suppléant is the mayor of Rive-de-Gier. Reynaud is the favourite on the right, but perhaps not overall. The PS has a solid chance with Philippe Kizirian, the new PS mayor of Saint-Chamond since 2008, who benefits from EELV’s support.  With the FN holding a chance to make the runoff, the right divided, it is quite possible that the PS will win here. A triangulaire would likely be fatal for the right, but a traditional PS-right runoff would be more closely divided.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
4th (Firminy/Vallée de l’Ondaine, PCD-UMP)*: Loses the leftie stronghold of Saint-Étienne-SO-2, but gains Saint-Bonnet-le-Château, Saint-Just-Saint-Rambert and Saint-Jean-Soleymieux. Most of the constituency is in the suburban or exurban influence of Saint-Étienne and its area. Hollande won 50.9% here, despite a redistricting clearly aimed at favouring the right. The core left-wing strongholds here are Firminy and Le Chambon-Feuguerolles. These two cantons are the old core of Loire mining basin, with the cities of Firminy, La Ricamarie and Le Chambon-Feuguerolles. Hollande won 58% in the canton of Firminy and 61% in the canton of Chambon-Feuguerolles, which, complemented by 55% in Saint-Jean-Soleymieux and 51% in Bourg-Argental, explain his victory here. In general, the other suburban areas (Saint-Genest-Mailfaux, Saint-Just-Saint-Rambert) – more affluent – lean to the right pretty strongly (except from small textile towns). The addition of Saint-Bonnet-le-Château and Saint-Just-Saint-Rambert really shore up the right, Hollande would have won the old constituency by a solid margin. The PCF has traditionally been strong in the cantons of Firminy and Chambon-Feuguerolles. The PCF held Firminy between 1971 and 2001 and again since 2008. La Ricamarie also has a PCF mayor. The old constituency  usually alternated between right and PCF. The PCF won in 1962, 1972, 1981, 1988 and 1997. In 1997, the PCF benefited from a triangulaire with the FN to win the seat. Since 2002, however, the seat has been held by Dino Cinieri, a member of the PCD. He won narrowly in 2002 and again in 2007 (51.6% against the PS, PCF at 12.9%). In 2008, Cinieri, mayor of Firminy between 2001 and 2008, lost his seat to the PCF’s Marc Petit. Cinieri can benefit from new boundaries, but he is still in a tough spot. The PS took the stupid decision to endorse EELV here, so it likely means that Christian Faverjon, the PCF mayor of Unieux, will be the main leftie candidate. Marine won 24% here and the FN can perhaps make the runoff, like in 1997. Another daring call (if only because I have a weird kind of psephological appreciation for seeing old PCF strongholds return to their old roots…)
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
5th (Roanne, UMP)*: Loses Saint-Germain-Laval but gains Charlieu, Belmont-de-la-Loire, Perreux and Saint-Symphorien-de-Lay. The new fifth basically covers the whole north of the department, centered on the old textile and blue-collar town of Roanne. Sarko won 51.5% here, losing to Hollande in both cantons of Roanne and the city proper, but generally prevailing the rural/suburban cantons. There used to be a strong left-wing tradition, still kicking in local elections, in Charlieu or La Pacaudière, but these fairly poor small-town areas, where the FN does pretty well (21.3% overall in the constituency for Marine), have shifted to the right. Politically, the PS used to be fairly strong if not dominant here. Between 1977 and 2001, Roanne was ruled by Jean Auroux, a PS cabinet minister. The PS held the seat between 1978 and 1993, when the UDF’s Yves Nicolin won this seat and has held it since. In 2007, he won very narrowly with 50.7% against Laure Deroche, who in 2008 toppled Nicolin from Roanne city hall. This year is another contest between Deroche and Nicolin, in which the FN might – but probably won’t – be the referee. Deroche is boosted by her local base since 2008 as mayor of Roanne, but the redistricting here has generally favoured the right as the weight of Roanne has become less important. There is an AC candidacy backed by the CNIP which might hurt the right a bit. I don’t know where to place this exactly without having my ear on the ground, but…
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

6th (Montbrison/Feurs/Monts du Forez, UMP)*: Loses Charlieu, Belmont-de-la-Loire, Perreux and Saint-Symphorien-de-Lay, gains Saint-Germain-Laval, Noiretable, Boen, Saint-Georges-en-Couzan and Montbrison. Feurs and Montbrison are the two main towns here. Sarko won 54.9%, his best in the department. Indeed, except for what I think is a working-class basin around Boen and Noirétable, this is a predominantly rural and small-town type of constituency, with a strong clerical Catholic tradition and Christian democratic political orientation. Saint-Galmier, Feurs, Montbrison and Chazelles-sur-Lyon are fairly affluent cantons, Saint-Galmier being in the suburban influence of Saint-Étienne. These areas have never elected a left-wing deputy since 1958, and 2012 probably won’t be the year. The PS has a good candidate in Liliane Faure, the new CG/mayor of Montbrison, but the UMP incumbent, Paul Salen (CG for Saint-Galmier. The race might be close, and the FN – 22% for Marine – could play a role (but I don’t think they’ll make the runoff), but in the end I guess the right will pull through.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

Ardennes
2007: 2 UMP, 1 PS
 
1st (Charleville sud/Rethel, UMP): Sarko won about 51% in this seat. But this seat, like the third, has a stark political divide between rural and urban. This seat takes in part of Charleville-Mézières, a poor working-class town and traditional PS stronghold. It also includes the cantons of Villers-Semeuse and Flize. Hollande won 63% in the canton of Mézières Est, which includes a big ZUS, and 55% in Villers-Semeuse (the town proper is home to an auto factory) and 52% in Flize (Nouvion-sur-Meuse is a working-class town). He also won in Signy-le-Petit, a small industrial canton on the border with the Aisne. On the other hand, the rest of the constituency – rural, largely poor (except for Rethel and some cantons like Juniville on the border with the Marne, fairly affluent and integrated with Reims) and small townish, is solidly conservative. Sarko won less than 55% in only two ‘rural’ cantons (Rethel, which isn’t rural, and Signy-l’Abbaye). Since 1981, this seat has been a bellwether, electing Socialists in 81, 88 and 97 but right-wingers in 93, 02 and 07. In 1997, Claudine Ledoux, who became the PS mayor of Charleville in 2001, won thanks to a triangulaire with the FN but was defeated by the UMP’s Bérengère Poletti in 2002 and again in 2007 (Poletti won 54% in 2002, and 59.5% in 2007). This year’s rematch opposes Poletti, who was defeated by Ledoux in her bid to win the longtime PS stronghold of Charleville in 2008, and Ledoux. Ledoux originally wanted to run in the second, but when the PS candidate here was declared ineligible, she was compelled to run here. The race will be close, and the FN – strong in this marginalized, rural and declining region (24.7% for Marine) will likely make the runoff, and could, as in 1997, ruin matters for the right. Given the triangulaire factor and the bellwether political history…
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
2nd (Charleville nord/Vallée de la Meuse, PS): This seat, which gave 56.8% to Hollande, is a left-wing stronghold.  It includes part of Charleville, its more affluent suburbs (right-leaning), some rural areas (right-leaning) but above all declining industrial areas in the Meuse valley. The towns of Bogny, Monthermé, Revin, Givet or Vireux-Molhain were driven by metallurgy, while there was a big slate mining industry in Fumay. Hollande won 64.5% in the canton of Nouzonville, 61.5% in Monthermé, 65.6% in Revel, 59% in Fumay and 59.6% in Givet. Between 1967 and today, the right won this seat once – in 1993. The PCF has held this seat, but it is not as powerful as the PS. Since 1997, it has been held by Philippe Vuilque, the PS mayor of Revin. He won 53.2% in 2002 and 51.5% in 2007. This should be a safe leftie seat, but the contest is quite interesting this year.  Vuilque, a fairly useless deputy who is contested within his own party, was defeated in the PS internal primary but is running as a dissident. The PS candidate is Christophe Léonard, the PS CG for Charleville-Centre. The UMP, which had improved on its 2002 result in 2007, is not to be counted out entirely. Its candidate, Boris Ravignon, defeated in 2007, UMP CG for Charleville-La Houillère is a strong candidate. While the UMP winning this seat would be a monumental upset and remains quite unlikely (especially so if the FN qualifies, Marine won 24.2% but abstention is high here, so it is likely to be shut out), he likely hopes to benefit from the left’s division.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left (Vuilque?) favoured
 
3rd (Sedan, UMP): Hollande won 50.2%, thanks almost entirely to his domination in the industrial basin of Sedan, which has always been the left’s main bastion in this constituency (alongside the small town of Vouziers). On the other hand, Sarkozy remained by far the strongest in the rural areas of this constituency, a continuation of the very conservative champenois countryside in the Marne (though certainly not as comparatively wealthy). The former PS mayor of Sedan, Jean-Paul Bachy, now president of the CR, won this seat in 1988 but following his defeat in 1993 the left has yet to regain this seat, which it had previously won in 1967 (with the PSU) and in 1981. Since 1995, it has been held by Jean-Luc Warsmann, mayor of Douzy and unsuccessful UMP candidate in the 2010 regionals. He won reelection by the first round in 2002 and 2007. In 2007, he took 57.5% against 24.7% for Bachy in the first round. Though the FN – Marine won 24.6% here – could make the runoff, Warsmann is safe. The PS nominated some nobody after neither Bachy nor the PS mayor of Sedan wanted to run.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

Thanks, Hash. THESE are the good departments ;)

Wasn't Loire fascinating, as often ?

Well, I've hesitated a lot for the 4th, but I think (hope ?) that an evenly divided left (also with a PRG who isn't entirely a nobody) might not be in the runoff :P or that it might be a classical duel. But, of course, in case of a triangulaire, Cinieri is dead.

In the 3rd, I was tempted to say "gain for the left" but, after all, Rochebloine seems unbeatable since 1997 :P With the FN out, he'll be able to win.

In the 5th, perhaps I'm weighting too much the local force of the PS mayor of Roanne, but it's still something.

So, you may be right and I've completely mixed up the results. We'll see.

In the Ardennes, I wouldn't say Warsmann is "safe", but he'll probably prevail in the end, as he is well entrenched.
In the 2nd, Vuilque is a much stronger candidate for the left, sure.
I'm relaxed we agree on Ardennes: at least, I won't be wrong on everything :D

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In the end, I'd be interested in your opinion on the "best" department, I mean the one with the most difficult tossups to predict: Loire, Bouches-du-Rhône, Gard, Hérault are high for the moment.

Yonne, Essonne, Vaucluse, Vosges may be high too, after all.

Aisne
2007: 2 PS, 2 UMP, 1 DVG
 
1st (Laon, DVG): Hollande won 54.9% here, boosted by a nearly 58% result in Laon, a fairly working-class city which is one of the main cities in the Aisne and certainly the big town in this constituency. Otherwise, most of the constituency lives under the influence of Laon, or, in the canton of Neufchatel-sur-Aisne, Reims. Once again, except for some middle-class suburban communes outside Laon or near Reims, this is a poor, economically and demographically declining region. The FN does fairly well here, especially outside of Laon. Marine won 25% here, a good second behind Hollande and ahead of Sarko (23.5%). Traditionally a proletarian region, the left has usually had the upper hand in this region. Laon has nonetheless elected right-wing mayors since 1989. Save for 1993, the left has held this seat since 1973. Since 1988, again with the exception of 1993, the deputy here has been René Dosière (PS), who won won his seat back easily in 1997 and held on without too much trouble in 2002 and 2007. Dosière is a well-known whistleblower whose big issue is public finances and especially spending by the President. In 2007, Dosière had lost the PS nomination to Fawaz Karimet, but he defeated the official PS candidate in the first round (25.1% vs 20.2%) and soundly defeated the right in the runoff. Dosière, a popular incumbent, was once again denied the PS nomination this year – because he refused to acquiesce to the PS’ choice of a suppléant. He is thus running, once again, as a dissident of sorts against Karimet, CG for Laon-Nord who is again the official PS candidate. But it appears as if Dosière and the PS agreed to this matter of things so that he could retain an image of political independence and retain credibility in his watchdog role. He is backed unofficially by a lot of Socialists, officially by the PRG. The UMP is backing some NC local councillor in Laon, and the FN will likely make it to the runoff – either in a duel against Dosière or in a three-way fight with the UMP included. Dosière will probably win easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Saint-Quentin/Vermandois, UMP): Hollande won 52.6% here. The seat is centered on the industrial basin of Saint-Quentin, which is a traditionally blue-collar city in which Hollande won 54%. The city’s suburbs are also fairly middle-class and a bit more affluent than the rest of the department. It is still an economically depressed and demographically stagnant region, especially up north in the canton of Le Catelet. But the Saint-Quentinois agglomeration’s dominance in this constituency makes it a bit more ‘privileged’ if you wish than the other constituencies in this department. Sarko placed second behind Hollande, Marine won a fairly ‘poor’ third place by local standards with 24.9%, and didn’t do great in Saint-Quentin and its inner suburbs. The city of Saint-Quentin has alternated between PCF and Gaullists since 1977, since 1995 it has been held by the right, in the person of Senator Pierre André and now in the person of Xavier Bertrand, former cabinet minister and a political of national renown. The PCF held this seat between 1973 and 1993, and the PS won it in 1997 (the PCF placed a poor third). In 2002, Xavier Bertrand defeated PS incumbent Odette Grzegrzulka with 57% in the runoff. Having built a national image (which is generally positive for him), a local network; he won by the first round in 2007 with 53.3%. His list easily won the 2008 local elections in Saint-Quentin. Bertrand definitely has a personal vote, and this should help him survive this tough spell. The PS candidate, Anne Ferreira, a regional councillor, doesn't seem to measure up, and the FN, while it could probably make a triangulaire, won't be enough to kill the UMP here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
 
3rd (Thiérache, PS^): Hollande won 53.1% in this constituency, which covers about all of the Thiérache region in the northeast of the department. This is a poor and proletarian region, half-rural (not really rural but more a bastard region of small towns with old working-class populations who are forced to work in bigger towns…) and small townish around the small industrial centres of Hirson, Vervins, Guise, Marles or Bohain-en-Vermandois. It is an economically depressed, poor and demographically declining region.The Thiérache is a bocage region, of dispersed habitat, known for its individualism and agrarian radicalism. Traditionally, this has been a left-wing stronghold, because of its solidly working-class and proletarian background. The left remains dominant in the small industrial centres, notably Hirson or Guise. The socio-economic makeup of the region, however, has made it perfect territory for the FN. Marine Le Pen came out on top over Hollande with 27.9%, and broke 30% in a few cantons. The PS has held this seat since 1967, with Maurice Brugnon between 1967 and 1981, and with Jean-Pierre Balligand since 1981. He was one of the few PS survivors of 1993, and won easily in the last three elections – though his 53% in 2007 was very weak… He is retiring this year, and the PS’ Jean-Louis Bricout, mayor of Bohain-en-Vermandois, is the favourite to succeed him. The UMP is aligning Frédéric Meura, the same candidate as in 2007, who is the CG for La Capelle. However, Sarko placed third here, and there’s a good risk that the runoff could end up being a PS-FN affair. The PS should hold on easily.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

4th (Soissons/Tergnier, PG^): Hollande won here with 53.6%, propelled in large part by a huge win in the cite cheminote of Tergnier (66.6%), but also by a narrower win in the old working-class town of Chauny (canton: 53%). Sarko won Soissons and did fairly well in its more middle-class suburbs. This is an economically depressed and somewhat marginalized region, which is increasingly drawn to larger regional and national urban centres, though not as much as the fifth. The left has held this seat since 1973, with the exception of 1993. In 1997, Jacques Desallangre, the chevènementiste mayor of Tergnier, easily gained this seat from the right after having outpaced the PS in the first round. In 2002, having left the MDC, he won with 54.6%, becoming the sole chevènementiste to win reelection. In 2007, he won with 54.6% again. In both 2002 and 2007, he defeated PS candidates in the first round. In 2007, the PS won 16.2% against his 26.2%. The FN still won 8.3% in 2007, and Marine won all of 26.4% in this constituency. Desallangre, who later joined the PG, is retiring this year. The result has been a very amusing sh**tfest of lefties vying for the seat. Desallangre is backing his assistant Frédéric Alliot, a PG dissident who has received the PRG's support (I think the PRG, for some reason, had backed Desallangre in 2007). Alliot is a local councillor in Soissons. On the other hand, the FG's candidate is Jean-Luc Lanouilh, the PCF CG for Chauny whose suppleant is the PCF CG for Soissons-Sud. The PS, finally, is supporting Marie-Françoise Bechtel, a high ranking member of the MRC. The left has three candidates (+ a Greenie, and the Trot jokers), while the right seems to be backing Charles-Edouard Law de Lauriston, a PRV local mayor. The FN's Evelyne Ruelle will probably make the runoff in a form or another, but it could be hurt by low turnout and the unpredictable nature of this mess. A mess indeed. The left's division into three candidates of fairly equal strength, imo, means that there's an outside chance - not big but not insignificant either - that it could be eliminated from the runoff altogether, and result in a fluke UMP-FN runoff which the right would win (in a seat held by the left!). A triangulaire with the UMP, FN and the top leftie is perhaps more likely; or maybe a leftie-FN runoff. After all, Sarko won only 22.7% here, his lowest result in the Aisne, and the FN vote here certainly isn't going to vote UMP en masse. I think the 'left' pulls it out, but which one of three wins is up for grabs. Alliot could potentially be strong in Tergnier and Soisson, while the FG prevails in Chauny. I don't know how strong of a candidate the MRC's Bechtel is. Fun times ahead!
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean left

5th (Château-Thierry/Tardenois/Brie, UMP): This seat covers the far south of the department, far more integrated in the Parisian basin than in "la Picardie profonde". Indeed, a lot of the population here commutes long distances to work in Ile-de-France/Paris, which makes this region an extension of the neighboring "periurbain lointain" found in eastern Seine-et-Marne. This is also a "periurbain subi" - lower middle-classes, not too affluent, lots of lower-level private sector employees forced out of the big city, by a mish-mash of feelings about immigration/criminality but above all property prices. Prime FN territory. Marine won 27.5%, with Sarko in second place (25.3%). Sarko won 51.7% in the runoff. He won the exurban territory, but lost decisively (56-44) in Château-Thierry, more industrial and left-leaning. This region has usually been the most right-leaning of the Aisne, in the past due to the dominance of large agricultural properties. Between 1958 and 1981 and again 1988 and 1994, this seat was held by André Rossi, the right-wing Radical former mayor of Château-Thierry. The left won it only once, in 1981. In 1997, Renaud Dutreil narrowly defeated Dominique Jourdain, the PS mayor of Château-Thierry in a triangulaire. In 2007, the UMP's Isabelle Vasseur won with 54% in the runoff against Jourdain. This year, Vasseur faces tough competition not only from the FN, which will certainly make the runoff, but also from the left. But the left is divided. The PS is backing Jacques Krabal, the PRG mayor/CG for Château-Thierry since 2008, but his candidacy is not well received by the local PS. Dominique Jourdain, who ran for the PS in every election except 2002, is running again, for EELV. Jourdain had lost the 2008 local elections to Krabal. I don't know what impact the left's division will have on matters here, especially in the runoff. There's an outside chance that, like in 2002, the left finds itself shut out of the runoff - Hollande placed third here on April 22. But there's also a chance that a triangulaire with the left could prove fatal for the right.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

Plan of attack:

I'll complete all/most of Fab's interesting departments and others of personal interest to me - notably the big ones (Nord, Rhone, all of IDF time permitting). That should take up about most of the remaining days. Oise is next on the list, then I'll try to get a headstart on IDF (covering frontiste sh**tholes is getting tedious and depressing)

On Saturday June 9, I'll post a complete map with my "calls" for all constituencies, including those which won't have write ups. It's unfortunate I won't do all departments, but life sucks.

If I may, Meurthe-et-Moselle and Moselle are really interesting, especially with your good hindsights on the results of Marleix' epic scissors.

And Vosges are funnier than I initially thought (while Drôme and Pyrenees-Atlantiques aren't so interesting).

The rest of my list is OK :)
(deeply sorry for all these capricious changes, but my spontaneous guts are a bit modified when I try to scan the real field, as I'm doing myself each evening, with less brio than you ;)

And if I may, too, as you're interested in IdF, Paris, Yvelines and Seine-Saint-Denis are boring as hell in terms of uncertain "swingability" (sure, 1 or 2 interesting duels inside the left in 93, but that's all).

In Hauts-de-Seine and Val-de-Marne, it's just about 2 or 3 seats in each, the rest is obvious (but I acknowledge these 2 or 3 are very, very funny).
So, don't take too time on IdF, except on Val-d'Oise, Essonne and Seine-et-Marne (especially the latter 2, which are really hard).

Aisne 4th: Alliot has a real bonus, I think, over Bechtel (local vs. technocrat)
Aisne 5th: a triangulaire resulting in a gain for the left (Krabal), I think.

I've just looked at Rhône: boârf... a bit boring...

Will Val-de-Marne 6th be a big, big surprise ? Fortunately for the right, the left is badly divided. But, well, Hollande did quite well there. That'd be amazing. Poor Vivien ;D

Vaucluse 4th: ouch...!!!
Can't we even have a PS win in a triangulaire with FN and Bompard or even a quadrangulaire (no, I just dream a bit ;D)
Why don't these stupid medias poll this constituency, rather than Bayrou's one or Guéant's one ?!?

I wanted to finish tonight, but I must sleep a bit:
()

And I won't sleep well, as you've made me very doubtful about Loire 4th and 5th :P

How many seats will get each party in that case? Looking at map it seems that FDG and DVG will improve results only slightly.

For my own pleasure, and to take up all of my "free time"

Corse-du-Sud

1st (Ajaccio/Vallée de la Gravona, CSD-DVG): This seat covers Ajaccio, except for Ajaccio-6, and the rural areas inland, including the Vallée de la Gravona and the Gulf of Porto. It is fairly stupid to use presidential election results to predict any other elections on the island, but Sarko won 55.4% here. In the first round, Le Pen took 25.9% here, taking over 30% in the lower-income cantons in downtown Ajaccio but also the fairly nationalist areas inland (Celavo-Mezzana, Cruzini-Cinarca, 48.8% and 48.7% for the 2 nationalist lists in 2010). The nationalist vote is the main reason why those who use presidential results to predict other elections on the island are, to put it bluntly, idiots. Since 2002, this seat has been held by Simon Renucci, leader of the 'Corse social democrate' centre-left party and a former close ally of Lionel Jospin. Renucci. Between 1988 and 2002, the seat had been held by the liberal José Rossi, who was president of the CG and later president of the assembly. He had staged an ephemeral alliance with Marc Marcangeli, the Bonapartist mayor of Ajaccio between 1994 and 2002, which broke up in 2000 and was patched up in 2002. Rossi won in 1997, with 52.2% in the runoff against Renucci. In 2002, however, countercyclical with the rest of the country (obviously, it's Corsica), Renucci defeated Rossi with 57.1% in the runoff. In 2001, Renucci defeated Marcangeli in Ajaccio, ending a Bonapartist (yes, in 2001!) stranglehold on local politics since the 1870s. In 2007, Renucci won by a narrower margin, with 54.3% in the runoff. In 2008, Renucci easily won a second term as mayor over a very divided local right. He is running again this year, facing Laurent Marcangeli, UMP CG for Ajaccio-1 who is probably the son of the former DVD-Bonapartist mayor. Paul-Antoine Luciani, the perennial candidate of the PCF here, is running again, having seen his votes shrink from about 13% to 5.5% between 1997 and 2007. Renucci should win easily, but this being Corsica, I guess, nothing is ever safe.
ETA: indeed, Corsica is being Corsican. A poll shows Marcangeli beating Renucci. I'll lower the ratings down.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge

2nd (Porto-Vecchio/Sartène/Bonifacio, UMP): This seat includes Porto-Vecchio, Bonifacio, Sartène, Propriano, Zicavo and Baselicata, among others. Sarko won 59.5% here, winning every major city, including 61% in Porto-Vecchio. The town of Porto-Vecchio has dominated politically in this seat, or, rather, the Rocca Serra dynasty has dominated. Indeed, the town of Porto-Vecchio has, since 1803, been the dynastic stronghold of the right-wing Rocca Serra clan. Between 1922 and 1943, the town was ruled by Camille de Rocca Serra, a right-wing deputy during the Third Republic. Between 1950 and 1997 it was the stronghold of Jean-Paul de Rocca Serra, RPR deputy for this constituency between 1962 and 1998. His son, Camille de Rocca Serra, governed the town between 1997 and 2005 and is currently a local councillor in the governing municipal majority. In 1993, the runoff here opposed Jean-Paul to his distant cousin Denis de Rocca-Serra. In 1997, Jean-Paul won a triangulaire against the 'cuz Denis and Dominique Bucchini, the PCF mayor of Sartène and notable opponent of political violence and enemy of the nationalists. JP won 34.9% against 33.3% for Denis and 31.8% for Bucchini. In 2002, Camille, the son, came out on top of a divided first round, with only 17% against 15.5% for a former ally of Denis, 15.3% for the UMP incumbent (Roland Francisci, deputy since JP died in 1998), 13.1% for Bucchini and 10.3% for Jérôme Polverini. Camille won 57.5% in the runoff. In 2007, he won 51% in the first round against 14.5% for Jean-Christophe Angelini, a moderate nationalist, and 13% for Bucchini. Since then, things have changed. Rocca Serra was defeated in the 2010 regionals, and in his own town of Porto-Vecchio, Angelini's moderate nationalists (Femu a Corsica) came out on top ahead of the Rocca Serrian UMP. In the constituency as a whole, he took 33.8% against 26.9% for the Simeoni-Angelini tandem and 28.5% for Giacobbi's left-wing alliance. In 2011, Angelini defeated Camille in the race for the canton of Porto-Vecchio, taking about 53% in the runoff. This year's race will be one that I will be watching very closely. Camille de Rocca-Serra faces Jean-Christophe Angelini, the local leader of the moderate nationalists (Femu a Corsica), regional councillor and of course CG. The left is divided between Dominique Bucchini, who is now president of the assembly of Corsica, and Paul-Marie Bartoli, the mayor of Propriano who is backed by the PS, the PRG and CSD. The radical nationalists, Corsica Libera, are fairly weak here, so Paul Quastana shouldn't trouble Angelini much. A poll out a few months ago showed Angelini winning a three-way runoff against Bucchini and Rocca Serra. I don't know how strong Angelini can do outside of Porto-Vecchio, where he can likely dominate. But Bucchini seems quite bent on defeating the UMP and has good relations at a personal level with Angelini, and the left usually tends to vote for the moderate nationalists over the UMP. Angelini winning would compensate for about any other bad result in the rest of the country.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

Moselle and Meurthe-et-Moselle do sound like good ideas, so I'll go there tomorrow.

Thank you for 54 and 57 :)
They are better than Oise, which will be a very important swinging departement, like Somme or... Meuse maybe, but which isn't so "fun" to predict, as I feel every race is quite clear (even the 7th).

Corse-du-Sud: well, I have no clue and I obviously agree with you. In the 2nd, I especially don't know who will be on top of the left in the 1st round and will fight the UMP in the runoff. That may change the final result a lot.

So I don't need to update the map anymore ?

Sorry, I'm almost trolling, but, trying to be more focused, here is an updated list of interest if you want to have some fun in "working on them":

- Essonne, Val d'Oise, Seine-et-Marne in IdF

- Yonne, Vaucluse, Vosges, Lot-et-Garonne, Nord, Français à l'étranger (well, there may be huge surprises here, I think) otherwise (with Cher and Meuse as usual suspects)

Just as I posted that on Corse-du-Sud, a poll comes out which shows Marcangeli beating Renucci with 51.5% in the runoff. Corsica would be so.... Corsican if it had the UMP seat go to the left/regionalists and the leftie seat go to the right :)

That being said, every election since 1997 (if not 1988 or 1993) has had one or more seat going against the tide: left > right in 1997, right > left in 2002, left > right in 2007. There's gotta be one of those this year.

Meurthe-et-Moselle
2007: 4 UMP, 3 PS
 
1st (Nancy/Saint-Max/Malzéville, PRV-UMP)*: This seat gains Saint-Max and Seichamps. It takes in the bulk of Nancy, save for the canton of Nancy-ouest, and its western suburbs (Malzéville, Saint-Max, Seichamps etc). Hollande won 53.7% here, and the trend is to the left. Nancy, a fairly bourgeois white-collar city, has traditionally been a right-wing city – it has been governed by the right since 1945 at least – but it is shifting to the left quite dramatically. Hollande won 55% in the city, and even more in the part of the city included here given that he won the three urban cantons included in this seat with anywhere between 56% and 60% (in the canton including the ZUS of the Haut-du-Lièvre, where Nadine Morano is from…). Saint-Max and Malzéville proper are middle-class suburbs, increasingly attractive for young families, while the rest of the canton includes politically marginally but otherwise quite affluent residential suburbs. Boosted by the old centre-right bastion of Nancy, the right has historically been dominant in the old first. The left won this seat only once, in 1997. That year, the PS defeated the longtime UDF incumbent, André Rossinot, mayor of Nancy, with a very narrow 127 vote victory. In 2002, Rossinot’s dauphin, the Radical Laurent Hénart won back the seat with 54.3% in the runoff, in 2007 he won reelection with a tiny 50.8%. Marleix’s scissors did not turn to the right’s advantage in this constituency, and Hénart is quite weakened. He faces the PS’ Chaynesse Khirouni, a local councillor in Nancy. Marine won only 15.3% here and the FN will not be a significant presence. In a straight left-right runoff, Hénart, while not a bad candidate or incumbent, finds himself as the underdog.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
                                                                                     
2nd (Nancy/Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy/Laxou, PS)*: Gains Laxou and Nancy-Ouest, loses Saint-Max, Seichamps, Tomblaine and Arracourt. This constituency includes the canton of Nancy-Ouest, a bourgeois canton which was the city’s only canton to vote for Sarko (with 51%), the affluent suburban canton of Laxou, the poor working-class suburb of Jarville-la-Malgrange and the somewhat gentrified but still largely low-income inner suburb/cité populaire of Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy. Hollande won 53% here, winning by a short edge in Laxou and the canton of Jarville-la-Malgrange (though he took 56% in the chef-lieu of that canton) and 54% and 63.5% in the two cantons of Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy (58% overall). Marine won only 13.4% of the vote, doing well only in Jarville-la-Malgrange proper. The borders have changed a lot, but in the old second, the right was usually dominant. The left won the old constituency only thrice, in 1981, 1997 and 2007. In 2007, with the right’s Gérard Léonard, longtime incumbent, retiring, the PS’ Hervé Feron took this seat with 50.7% in the runoff. The redistricting has added two cantons from the old third, which was eliminated. The old third, held by the right since 1988 (but by only 13 votes in 1997…), was won in 2007 by the young UMP rising star of sorts, Valérie Rosso-Debord, who has (had?) a bright future promised to her as one of those fairly good-looking middle-aged right-wing women attack dogs. The redistricting shafted her – I wonder why Marleix did this – into this seat, more left-leaning (though it is notionally right-wing, on 2007 results, by a hair). The race is a fairly interesting contest between Hervé Feron (who is mayor of Tomblaine, now outside this seat) and Rosso-Debord. Féron should win here, unfortunately for her ambitions.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean left
 
3rd (Pays Haut/Longwy/Briey, PS)*: The old third is gone, the new third is the old seventh. Compared to the old seventh, it only gains the canton of Briey. Hollande won 58.9% here. This is left-wing country, the well-known Pays Haut. The cause, being, of course, the bassin sidérurgique lorrain – Lorraine’s iron country. Longwy, Villerupt, Briey, Tucquegnieux, Herserange, Hussigny-Godbrange, Briey and Mont-Saint-Martin are some of the most famous industrial iron mine/ironworks towns in the Pays Haut. This region has a very strong left-wing – socialist or communist – tradition, the result of religious secularization but also because a lot of the original workers came from abroad – notably Italy and Poland – Longwy has a significant Italian-ancestry population, and the influence is perceptible if you look at the names of old PCF deputies here. The PCF, indeed, retains strength in this area. All but two (Longwy, held by a DVG; and Longuyon, held by a DVD) of the constituency’s seven cantons are held by the PCF. Mélenchon won 18.3% here, including 24% in Villerupt and Herserange. The FN is quite weak in the Longwy basin: only 19-20% for Marine this year, for an overall result of 21.6% in the constituency (BUT ALL TEH COMMIE OUVRIERS VOTE FN!!!111). The left has held this seat since about 1978, with the sole interruption of 2002. The PCF’s votes allowed the PS to hold on here in 1993. But in 2002, poor transfers from the PCF (19%) allowed the UMP’s Édouard Jacque to narrowly gain this seat. The PS’ Christian Eckert regained the old seventh in 2007, with 53.1% in the runoff. The PCF still took 18.5% in the first round. Jacque won the traditionally left-wing stronghold of Longwy in the 2008 locals, which might be a fluke. But he is not running this year, and the UMP’s candidate is the former departmental boss of the Jeunes Pop and is apparently a stupid hack. The main contest will probably be on the left, between Eckert (PS, mayor of Trieux and incumbent) and the FG candidate, Serge de Carli, the PCF CG/mayor of Mont-Saint-Martin whose suppléant is the PCF CG for Briey. The FN will probably not come close to qualifying for the runoff. I think the PS should win, but a FG upset is not out of the question, especially with such a good candidate.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
4th (Lunéville/Bayon/Tomblaine, UMP)*: Gains Tomblaine and Arracourt. This constituency covers the southeast of the department, around the old military (and somewhat working-class) town of Lunéville but also extending into Nancy’s suburbs – Tomblaine or Saint-Nicolas-de-Port. This region, influenced by the old military-nationalist tradition and the Catholic influence perceptible along the border with Moselle, has usually leaned to the right. Sarko won narrowly, with 50.6% on May 6. He lost in Lunéville by a short margin. The left usually finds its strength here in Tomblaine – a new addition to the constituency – which is a very working-class suburb of Nancy and in working-class communities along the Meurthe (Saint-Nicolas-de-Port, Damelevières). Le Pen won 25.5% here – first place while Sarko placed third, her best result in the constituency, doing especially well (26-31% of the vote) in the more isolated and rural/distant exurban/ouvrier caché cantons. The left won only once here, in 1988, but did come 9 votes short in 1997 against the RPR. The right returned in 2002 and held on easily in 2007, with 57.9%. The redistricting likely makes it marginally more left-leaning, but not by a lot. The UMP incumbent here since 2007, Jacques Lamblin, faces an EELV-PS candidate, Marie-Neige Houchard (who I think has no political mandate). The FN will likely feature in a triangulaire. I am not sure of how to evaluate this race. The UMP incumbent is the mayor of Lunéville, so he can likely do pretty well there, and the left’s candidate being from EELV rather than some PS dude is not a swell idea to win a seat like this. The Greenie could certainly win, more fluke-ishly than anything else, in a triangulaire, but for now I guess the right will hold on here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
                           
5th (Toul, UMP): This seat is the only not affected by the redistricting. It covers the west of the department, centered on the industrial basin of Toul, which is also an old military city. Sarko won his best result here, with 52.8%. Hollande won a single canton, Neuves-Maison, whose namesake is an old ironworks town, but which is more and more a middle-class suburban canton for Nancy – like a lot of the constituency, which lives almost entirely in the suburban and exurban influence of Nancy or Toul. Le Pen won 24.7%, placing third. The seat has usually been a right-wing stronghold, but the left won here in 1988 (defeating a longtime incumbent and former cabinet minister) and 1997. In 2002, the PS incumbent Nicole Feidt, despite having won the city of Toul from the right in 2001, fell victim to the young UMP contender… Nadine Morano, who won 56.3%. In 2007, Morano won with a ‘small’ 52.8% in the runoff after a very strong first round result. Morano is a moron, a talentless hack whose only strength is her ability to be a formidably loyal Sarkozyst frontline attack dog and pathological liar. On the ground, she seems to be an active deputy who makes constant use of vulgar populism and cultivates the image of an uneducated redneck. Her strength and profile did not prevent her from badly losing in her 2008 attempt to topple the PS in Toul. This year, she seems fairly threatened, and the likelihood of a triangulaire with the FN weakens her standing. She faces, on the left, Dominique Potier, the PS mayor of Lay-Saint-Rémy. I’m pessimistic, but I think Moron-o could narrowly hang on. I wouldn’t put it past her to go on a fascist-fest to appease FN voters.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
6th (Pont-à-Mousson/Homécourt, PS)*: Gains Pompey and loses Briey. Hollande won 56.4% in this seat, which stretches from the iron mine cantons of Homécourt and Conflans-en-Jarnisy (both held by the PCF) to some older industrial cantons including Pont-à-Mousson, Dieulouard or Pompey (in the suburban vicinity of Nancy, Maxéville and Champigneulles are working-class communities). The left is dominant, of course, in the cantons of Homécourt and Conflans-en-Jarnisy (70% and 61% for Hollande) but also in Pompey (58%). Hollande narrowly won the canton of Dieulouard and the city of Pont-à-Mousson proper, whose ‘histoire sidérurgique’ ended quite some time ago. The left has been on top here since the 1970s. The sixth constituency in its former shape has been represented by the PS’ Jean-Yves Le Déaut since 1988 – who even survived the 1993 disaster. He won with around 58% in 2002 and 2007, and with 63% in 1997. He will win easily this year again, facing only testimonial UMP opposition which will be made even weaker in the case of a triangulaire with the FN – Marine won 24.3% here, Sarko won 20.5%.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

Glad to see that you are in the fog on 4th and 5th, like me.
I think Morano will lose, as Toul is important and as she seems to tire even her own voters.

(like for Loire, I'm afraid you'll have better predictions than me on Moselle :P
but the 9th of June isn't tomorrow, so I can change until then... ;))

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I've done the rest of IdF.
Clearly, if you want to have priorities, Seine-et-Marne is the finest one, as constituencies have changed a lot.
(unfortuantely, Copé should win ;D)
Then, Val d'Oise, as there are divisions on the left.
Then, closely behind, Essonne.
Then Hauts-de-Seine and Val-de-Marne on a par.

The PS may reach its majority thanks to gains in IdF, really.

()

On Nord, your analysis will be highly welcome, especially for the 5th (Huyghe), the 7th, the 10th (yeah... Vanneste), the 14th, the 15th, the 18th and, of course, the 21st (Borloo).
I'm lost with all these new boundaries ;D !

On the "Français de l'étranger", it could be really weird too.

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Haven't made my totals (I need to sleep), but there is NO greenie group in the Assembly from this map :D
The PRG, with some "DVG" may be able to have one.
The FG will reach the 20.
The NC and the Parti Radical are too low, except if they gather all their deputies...

EDIT: it's something like a switched 2007.
The PS will have a majority alone if my predictions are right and if we include the "dissidents". Or at least PS+DVG+PRG.
Well done, Franz-im-Glück and Lucky John-Mark :( :P

Moselle
2007: 8 UMP, 2 PS
 
1st (Metz/Woippy/Rombas, UMP^)*: Gains Rombas and a tiny slice of infra-urban Metz-3 (quartier Nouvelle Ville, a fairly middle-class and bobo-type area, afaik), but loses all of Metz-1. The result is something which is not that nice. Including the old iron basin of Rombas/Hagondange/Marange-Silvange/Maizières-les-Metz/Talange, the low-income working poor suburb of Woippy, some more middle-class and right-leaning suburbs and a weird slice of a Metz canton. Hollande won 52.3% here, boosted by Metz but above all by the town of Woippy itself (59%), Rombas, Talange or Marange-Silvange. Sarko won the more affluent suburbs. This seat is vacated by François Grosdidier (UMP, mayor of Woippy), who won this seat from the PS in 2002 and became Senator last year. He won 52.4% under the old boundaries in 2007, in 1997 he had been victim of a triangulaire with the FN. Marine won 21.9% here, doing very well in the canton of Rombas and in Woippy proper. This year, the situation is a bit weird. There is no incumbent, the seat is notionally UMP, but the PS is the party to beat here. The PS candidate is Aurélie Filipetti, the new minister of culture, who won the 8th constituency in 2007 (which included Rombas), but who found herself shafted with the elimination of the eight. The media gnomes think this is a very tough race, but I doubt the UMP's candidate, Julien Freyburger, a local councillor who got his ass handed to him in the cantonals last year, is a 'strong candidate'. Especially when there's a chance that the FN can make the triangulaire here. Maybe I say this because I have a soft side for Filipetti, who's kinda hot by politician standards ;)
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured (sorta kinda GAIN)

2nd (Montigny-lès-Metz/Metz-Borny, UMP): This constituency is unchanged. It is another fairly atrocious constituency which reaches into Metz' east side (Metz-4, a fairly populaire canton with the Borny ZUS, 53.6% Hollande) and then includes parts of the weird canton of Montigny-lès-Metz which is made up of three non-contiguous enclaves - this includes two of these 'enclaves' including the chef-lieu, Montigny-lès-Metz, a lower middle-class/middle-class suburb right outside Metz; the affluent canton of Verny and the middle-class suburban canton of Ars-sur-Moselle (whose chef-lieu is a leftist bastion: old iron town). Sarko took 54.5%, and Marine won a fairly poor 20.3%. He narrowly won in Montigny-lès-Metz, rumped in the whole of Verny and narrowly won in the canton of Ars-sur-Moselle. The UMP' Denis Jacquat has held this seat since 1988, surviving a triangulaire with the FN in 1997. In 2007, he won 55.9%. This year, he faces Jean-Michel Toulouze, the PS CG for Metz-2 whose suppleant is the CG for Ars-sur-Moselle. In a 1981 case, the PS could win here without it being too shocking, but I don't think the left is in such a favourable position at this juncture. Jacquat should hold on.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

3rd (Metz-centre/Vigy/Panze, UMP)*: This canton gains Metz-1, but loses part of Metz-3 (Nouvelle Ville). It thus includes almost all of Metz except for Nouvelle Ville and the whole of Metz-4, in addition to one enclave of the awful canton of Montigny-lès-Metz (including, notably, the very affluent suburb of Saint-Julien-lès-Metz) and the two fairly well-off middle-class suburban/exurban cantons of Vigny and Pange. Sarko won 52.5% here, likely a short margin due to Metz - which he lost fairly narrowly. Metz has usually been a right-wing city - the right governed the city 'since 1848' (according to journalists of doubtful credibility), until 2008 when the right's division between the incumbent maverick Jean-Marie Rausch, the MoDem's Nathalie Griesbeck   and the UMP's Marie-Jo Zimmermann allowed the PS' Dominique Gros to win the city handily. Otherwise, Sarko did well in the rest of the suburban cantons. Le Pen won 19.9% overall, her lowest result in the department. The left has never won this seat. Since 1998 it has been held by Marie-Jo Zimmermann (UMP) who won 51% by the first round in 2007. With a triangulaire not very likely, and the PS' candidate (Christiane Pallez) being a low-key local councillor, she should win another term with much ease.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

4th (Plateau Lorrain/Sarrebourg, UMP)*: Gains Grostenquin. Sarko won 63.3% in this solidly right-wing, rural seat. Only the canton of Delme is a bit more suburban, though Sarrebourg is the main regional centre in this constituency and has its own 'sphere of influence'. In demographic terms, this seat is poor and working-class - we've found the ouvriers cachés! Indeed, the UMP's main rivals here nowadays tend to be the FN - Marine won 28.4% - a bit less than 2 points behind Sarko and way ahead of Hollande (18%). In political terms, the battle in this largely clerical and Catholic region used to be between Christian democrats and Gaullists - which also reflected a deep divide between the Germanophone cantons and the Francophone cantons, the former being more favourable to Christian democrats. Between 1968 and 1988, this seat was the impregnable stronghold of the Gaullist Pierre Messmer. In 1988, he was toppled in a big surprise by Aloyse Wahrhouver, a centrist who aligned with the Rocard 'ouverture'. He was reelected in 1993 and 1997, more because of his personality and local base than any left-wing base in this right-wing stronghold! In 2002, he was defeated by his longtime Alain Marty, the RPR-UMP mayor of Sarrebourg. Normality returned in 2007 after the 1988-2002 'weirdness'. Marty won 56.7% by the first round, against only 12.8% for the PS candidate. Marty will win easily this year, and if there is to be a runoff, it will probably be a UMP-FN affair.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

5th (Pays de Bitche/Sarreguemines, UMP): Like the fourth, this seat is solidly conservative, including the very conservative rural cantons of the Pays de Bitche but also the more urbanized cantons around the small industrial centre of Sarreguemines. Sarko won 60.6% here, but in the first round Marine came out on top of him with 29% against 27.5% (and only some 19% for Hollande). Like the fourth, demographically this is a poor and working-class region overall, and it is terrain which is very favourable to the FN, which won up to 32% in the canton of Sarralbe. Politically, this seat is a right-wing stronghold. Between 1958 and 1962 and then 1973 and 1997, it was the seat of Jean Seitlinger, a Christian democrat. However, his retirement in 1997 opened a "succession war" on the right - which resulted in the shocking victory of a Socialist, Gilbert Maurer, with 50.3% in the runoff. In 2002, the UMP mayor of Sarreguemines, Céleste Lett, signaled a returned to normality when he won 57.1% in the runoff against Maurer. Maurer's victory in 1997 and his defeat in 2002 showed a very, very marked divide between Maurer's home turf in the Bitche country and the right's home turf in and around Sarreguemines. These divisions were basically wiped out in 2007 when Lett won 61.4% - by the first round! (against Maurer no less...). This year, Lett should win handily. If there's a runoff, it will almost certainly be against the FN.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

6th (Forbach/Stiring-Wendel/Freyming-Merlebach/Bassin Houiller Lorrain, UMP): This seat is unchanged. Centered around the regional centre of Forbach, this seat covers part of the Lorrain coal basin, most notably the old mining towns of Forbach, Petite-Rosselle, Behren-lès-Forbach, Stiring-Wendel, Schœneck and Freyming-Merlebach. Mines have closed, unemployment is high, the region remains poor and the presence of large immigrant communities (notably in Behren-lès-Forbach, one of the few real leftie strongholds...) has bred a very strong FN vote. Marine placed first with 29.8%, while Sarko placed third with 23.3%. In the runoff, however, Sarko won here with 53%. I believe Jospin won this constituency in 1995, but the left has never been dominant in the mining basin of Lorraine, a world away from its dominance in the NPDC. A mix of Catholic traditions and local recruitment of employees bred this conservative tradition, which the FN has exploited very well. Panzergirl placed first in almost all of the aforementioned communes, often with over 30% of the votes, while Sarko placed third - but then Sarko won all of the aforementioned communes, even Forbach which tends a bit more to the left. The PS won this seat twice; in 1981 and 1997. In 1997, the presence of the FN in the 3-way runoff goes a long way to explaining the PS' victory. Which was, of course, shortlived. The former right-wing incumbent, Pierre Lang, UMP mayor of Freyming-Merlebach, beat the incumbent in a duel runoff with 62% in 2002 and then won 65.3% in the 2007 runoff. This year, Lang faces a tough contest. The FN fancies its chances in the "Henin-Beaumont of Lorraine", and it is running a fairly new face: Florian Philippot, who was Panzergirl's campaign director. Philippot is a high-profile 'star candidate' with some local roots. But on the other hand, his image as a technocratic elitist and an outsider of sorts to the region might hurt him, as could the dissident candidacy of Eric Vilain, who ran for the FN in 2007 (7.8%). The PS candidate is Laurent Kalinowski, the CG/mayor of Forbach. In a likely triangulaire with a very strong FN (24-28% overall?), he could very well stage a repeat of 1997 and defeat the UMP. I don't really think the FN can actually win here, but it can perform very well.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

7th (Saint-Avold/Bassin Houiller Lorrain, UMP)*: Loses Grostenquin and gains Bouzonville/Creutzwald, thus basically uniting the other part of the coal basin of Lorraine. This seat is centered on Saint-Avold, another big mining town, with its surroundings, equally marked by mining: Creutzwald, Faulquemont, Folschviller, Falck, Hombourg, L'Hôpital, Porcelette, Carling and Bisten-en-Lorraine. Once again, same story: mines are closed, the region is still very working-class, relatively poor and suffering from high unemployment. Marine placed first with 29.6%, though Sarko was second with 23.9%. In the runoff, he won 54.7%. He prevailed in all the aforementioned towns save for Creutzwald, Faulquemont, Folschviller and Hombourg, where Hollande narrowly came out ahead. The left won this traditionally conservative seat only once, in 1981. In 1997 and 2002, the runoff opposed the right and the FN. In 2007, André Wojciechowski, the PRV mayor of Saint-Avold, won the seat for the first time with 52% in the first round. He faces Paola Zanetti, a PS regional and local councillor and Nathalie Pigeot, a FN regional councillor. There is room for an upset here, by cause of a triangulaire, but the left being even weaker here than in the sixth, he should not face lots of trouble, especially not if it ends up UMP-FN like in 1997 or 2002.

Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
8th (Pays Haut Leftist Reserve, PS)*: Gains Fameck and the commune of Terville from the canton of Yutz. This is basically the old tenth constituency. This creates another "reserve" for our evil baby-eating socialist atheist friends. Hollande won 58.2% here and won each canton with at least 55% of the vote, peaking at 60.8% in the PCF bastion of Moyeuvre-Grande. This mosellan part of the Pays Haut continues the iron basin found in Meurthe-et-Moselle, with iron works or defunct iron ore mines in towns such as Fameck, Moyeuvre-Grande, Fontoy and 6000 towns ending '-ange' - Hayange, Algrange, Ottange, Uckange, Florange and, of course, the Martyr City of Gandrange. The post-iron era reconversion process is difficult and still ongoing, and this region is largely poor and blue-collar. The left, PS or PCF, has long been dominant in this constituency. Since 1962, the right won here only twice: in the tsunamis of 1968 and 1993. In 1997, Michel Liebgott (PS) won a seat left open by the retirement of the one-term UDF incumbent, taking 66% in a runoff against the FN. He won 59% in 2002 and 56% in 2007. The addition of Fameck only shores up this constituency. Michel Liebgott, PS mayor of Fameck and incumbent, will win easily. The result of the FN - Marine placed distant second with 24% (Sarko won about 19%...) - and that of the FG (represented by the PCF mayor of Algrange) - Mélenchon won 14.2% here will need to be watched closely.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

9th (Thionville, UMP)*: Gains Metzervisse, loses the town of Terville (canton of Yutz). This seat expands a bit but remains centered on Thionville and its area. Thionville, originally quite integrated with the Pays Haut's industrial activity, has succeeded its post-crisis reconversion and has become a fairly affluent middle-class and white-collar town. Its suburbs are fairly affluent as well. The cantons of Cattenon and Sierck-les-Bains on the border with Germany are somewhat rural, with a strong Catholic tradition which has made them quite right-wing. I suppose you might have a lot of more open-minded, liberally-oriented cross-border commuters there. Sarko won 54.6% here, while Le Pen won only 20.5% here. Sarko won about 53% in Thionville. The left won this seat only once, in 1981. In 1988, the RPR's Jean-Marie Demange won this seat and held on in each successive election, with 52% in 1997 but 55% in 2007. Demange became mayor of Thionville in 1995 in a city ruled since 1977 by the PCF, but in 2008 he was surprisingly defeated by the PS' Bertrand Mertz. So, Demange held the seat until 2008, when, depressed, he went on a murderous rampage which claimed the life of his mistress before he committed suicide himself. Yeah, I find the idea of your MP going on a murderous rampage a bit... out there... vote for me, or I'll kill myself. Since then, the seat has been held by his suppleant, Anne Grommerch (UMP). She faces a close contest with Bertrand Mertz, the PS CG/mayor of Thionville (and responsible for the murderous rampage of Demange, I guess). The FN shouldn't qualify for the runoff, I think. The right likely retains an edge, despite Mertz' likely advantage in Thionville.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

Yonne (I don't know a whole lot about electoral sociology here, sadly)
2007: 3 UMP

1st (Auxerre/Puisaye, UMP^)*: This apparently has gained some small hamlet in some commune (?). This seat covers Auxerre, a fairly bellwetherish town, governed by the PS since 2001. Hollande won 54% in the city, but lost to Sarko in the more affluent suburbs. Hollande won the suburban canton of Coulanges-la-Vineuse, but rural areas in this sector remain largely right-leaning. Sarko won 52.1% here, while Marine took 21.4% here, her weakest result in the department. Since 1968, this seat has been held by Jean-Pierre Soisson, who in 1988 became one of the UDF centrists who participated in the Rocard 'ouverture' - in fact, he became their sort of leader and created a party - the MDR - to represent the movement. In 1993, he easily won reelection over his old colleagues. In 1997, by which time he had turned a bit more to the right, he defeated the PS. In 2007, running for the UMP, he won 54.5%. In recent years, he's turned into a bit of a useless old idiot. There's a great picture of him somewhere on my computer ingesting some huge piece of ham while drunk at a party at the National Assembly. That hasn't kept the man who won the regional council in 1992 with the FN's vote to provide comments pertaining to political morality. He's retiring this year, leaving a tough open race. Guillaume Larrivé, a UMP regional and local councillor, faces Guy Férez, the PS mayor of Auxerre since 2001. Tough to handicap this race with Soisson out of the picture, but I'd join Fab and predict a short PS win. Férez seems like a good candidate. I do not think the FN should make the runoff, but if it did, the UMP would find itself seriously weakened.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

2nd (Avallon, UMP)*: Gains Brienon-sur-Armançon. Sarko won by a short margin here, with 51.4%. Marine won 24.1% here. The main town is Avallon, in the southeast of the department. It is a more working-class regional centre, which gave 56% to Hollande. The same result he won in Tonnerre, another of the main PS bases in this region. But the most important leftie base here is Migennes, one of the last few remaining cites cheminotes which lined the Paris-Lyon railway. Migennes has usually been a PCF base, the canton gave 55% to Hollande overall. Sarko found most of his votes in some auxerrois suburbs and in Chablis' wine country. The left won this seat in 1981, 1988 and 1997. Since 2002 it has been held by Jean-Marie Rolland (UMP), CG for Vermenton and president of the CG between 2008 and 2011. In 2007, he won 53.8% in the runoff. Like in the past two elections, he faces Jean-Yves Caullet, the PS deputy here between 1999 and 2002, who is also CG/mayor of Avallon. With the FN likely to make the runoff, a triangulaire would be very dangerous for the right here. I have a hard time seeing this seat resist the mini-pinkish wave.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

3rd (Sens/Joigny, UMP)*: Loses Brienon-sur-Armançon. Sarko won 55.6% here, and Marine won 25.4%, her best departmental result. Besides the regional town of Joigny, the north of the department included in this seat is increasingly under the influence of greater Paris, and a lot of the areas around Sens are in fact growing distant Parisian exurbs. They're not very wealthy, fairly lower middle-class in terms of class or income. Hence, the FN performs extremely well. Over 28% in the two cantons bordering the IDF, over 30% in another. This exurban trend has also, of course, been favourable to the right as a whole. The PCF, which used to have some influence in Sens, has basically been killed off. Hollande placed third here on April 22. The left won only once, in 1981 (of course). Since 2007 this seat has been held by Marie-Louise Fort (UMP), mayor of Sens until the PRG gained the city in 2008. She faces the PRG mayor of Sens, Daniel Paris, but also a PS candidate from Joigny. The left's division could eliminate it by the first round, resulting in a UMP-FN runoff. Even a triangulaire with regional FN leader Edouard Ferrand would still end up favouring, I think, the UMP.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

Nord tomorrow.

Great stuff ! :D It almost makes me wish the election was held later. :P

Moselle 9th: I think the PS candidate is quite strong, with his city behind him and against a weak UMP candidate. And there is a risk of a triangulaire.

Moselle 6th: I agree with you, it's a real tossup; I've just made up my mind ;) and opted for a repetition of the 1997 scenario.

As for Filippetti (yeah, 2 "p" for your miss ;D), indeed, she isn't in a weak position at all. It's not a shoo-in but she is far more favoured than Carlotti, or even Le Foll (though the latter will probably become the new "favourite son" very easily... a bit like Hollande in Corrèze after so many years of pompidolo-chiraquism...).

Yonne: haven't I said this is a difficult department to predict ? ;)

I look forward to reading from you on Nord.
Bon courage ! Many constituencies and some tough ones...

()

Well, I'm tired whereas I haven't written any great stuff like Hash :P
And I'm completely lost in Réunion (I HATE this department and its silly politics !!!) but also among French people abroad, as the turnout was so low and so many surprises can occur (I think many "real" French abroad, DVD, will prevail).

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So, it gives me:

PS: 268
PRG-DVG: 41
(sub-total: 309)
EE-LV: 10
(sub-total: 319)
FG: 20
independentists or left regionalists: 3

MoDem: 1
extreme-right: 1

UMP: 189
NC-radicals-DVD: 44
(sub-total: 233)

In other words:
the PS and its "dissidents" will have a mjority on their own
no Green group
a possible PRG-DVG group
a FG group
no FN MP (just Bompard in Vaucluse who isn't a member of the FN)
one MoDem left (Jean Lassalle)
a victory for the left almost as big as the right victory in 2007.

Now, I'm sure to be wrong again :P
But it's the game !

()

A bigger and more readable métropole.

Of course, until the 9th of June, I keep the right to update my predictions (especially for overseas territories and for French abroad !) ;)

Nord
2007:
 
1st (Lille-Centre/Wazemmes/Lille-Sud, PS)*: Gains Lille-Centre and the commune of Loos in the canton of Haubourdin, loses Lille-SO. There’s a mistake on my map apparently because the canton of Lille-SE is not included in its entirety, unlike on my map. I wonder how long it is before some asshole on the internet decides to throw a fit over this tragic mistake. This seat takes in the downtown parts of Lille (Lille-centre) and some southern parts (Moulins, parts of Wazemmes and Lille-Sud). The result is a fairly sociologically mixed seat, from the traditionally affluent bourgeois central core to old working-class and impoverished ZUS-cité populaire neighborhoods in Lille-Sud. Wazemmes and Moulins remain fairly poor, but there’s been some gentrification at work there in recent years and Wazemmes in particular is more and more bobo/hip/artsy – like the old bourgeois central core. Hollande won 62.1% in this leftie stronghold, including 73% in Lille-Sud (held by the PS since 1945) but also a very nice 57% in Lille-Centre (held by the right between 1945 and 2008). He also won 58% in the working-class suburb of Loos and 54.5% in Faches-Thumesnil. Marine won 14.3% overall, behind Mélenchon who polled 15.2%. The trend here is very favourable to the left, the reverse of what’s happening the rest of the department. The PS has held this seat since 1973, losing narrowly only in 1993. Since 1997, it has been held by Bernard Roman (PS). He won 61.8% in 2007. He has no strong opponents and will win another term easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
2nd (Lille-Hellemmes/Villeneuve-d’Ascq, PS^)*: Gains the commune of Mons-en-Barœul (part of Lille-NE). This seat includes Lille-Est and the two cantons of Villeneuve-d’Ascq. Lille-Est includes the neighborhood of Fives and the old commune of Hellemmes, both former industrial proletarian faubourgs which have struggled in recent years and remain largely impoverished and blue-collar with little gentrification. Villeneuve-d’Ascq, on the other hand, is a ville nouvelle from the 1970s largely known for its big scientific research and the presence of academia in the city. There are some more low-income inner-city areas too, but in large part the city is quite ‘bobo’. Hollande won 66.5% in Lille-Est and 59% in Villeneuve-d’Ascq, also dominating in the smaller towns of Mons-en-Barœul, Ronchin and Lezennes. Overall, he took 60.8% here. Marine took 16.3%, doing best in Lille-Est, while Mélenchon won 15.5%. The left has long been dominant here, since 1973 or even earlier. The seat has been held since 1988 – even in 1993 – by the PS’ Bernard Derosier, who won 58.7% in 2007. He is retiring and the PS’ Audrey Linkenheld will hold this seat easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left
 
3rd (Maubeuge/Avesnes-sur-Helpe/Vallée de la Sambre, UMP)*: The new third is the old twenty-third, more or less. Compared to the old 23rd, it gains Avesnes-Nord, Trelon and Solre-le-Chateau. Hollande won 52.4% in a seat with a UMP incumbent (from the 23rd) but which would have been notionally PS on these boundaries in 2007. The main centre here is Maubeuge, 58% for Hollande, and the main industrial town in the old metallurgical belt in the Sambre valley. The constituency also takes an unorthodox shape to take in the northern canton of Avesnes-sur-Helpe and also the canton of Trelon, which includes the textile town and PCF stronghold of Fourmies. While rural, exurban and suburban areas lean to the right, the left still has an edge in the old industrial Sambre valley - towns such as Louvroil or Boussois (two PCF strongholds) in the valley used to be centres of the metallurgical industry which predominated in the past. The left has usually been dominant in the region, the PS and PCF alternated control of the seat in the 1960s and 1970s. But the old 23rd, under much different boundaries, returned right-wingers in 1993 and onwards. In 2007, Christine Marin won a first term with 50.8% in the runoff against Rémi Pauvros, the PS mayor of Maubeuge. The new seat is favourable to the left, and the strong presence of the FN here (26.5% for Marine, against some 22% for Sarko) means that she's certainly toast this year, going up against, once again, Rémi Pauvros, the PS mayor of Maubeuge. It would be funny if the UMP incumbent didn't even make the runoff.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: left favoured (sorta kinda GAIN)

4th (Lille-Nord/Lille-Ouest, UMP)*: Gains Lille-Nord. Sarko won 54.2% here, in a seat which includes some parts of Lille proper (parts of Vieux-Lille) but is mostly a suburban seat – fairly affluent – including middle-class suburbs in the cantons of Lille-N, Lille-O and Quesnoy-sur-Deûle (though the border town of Comines is quite working-class). La Madelaine and Saint-André-lèz-Lilles, middle-class but not as affluent, voted for Hollande (he also might have won the parts of Lille proper, even though the Vieux-Lille is traditionally bourgeois), but the rest of the constituency went pretty big for Sarko. Marine did well in Comines, more blue-collar, but only won 15.8% overall. The right has always held this seat, since 1992 it has been held by Marc-Philippe Daubresse (UMP, ex-UDF). Daubresse is a fairly high-profile figure of the UMP’s centrist wing and briefly served in the last cabinet. He won by the first round in 2002, and in 2007 he won 58.7% in the runoff. In the first round that year, Olivier Henno, the MoDem mayor of Saint-André-lèz-Lille and CG for Lille-Ouest won third place with 18.1%. Henno is a fairly high-profile member of the MoDem and one of the last few loyal bigwigs in that pathetic joke party, and he preceded the Big Boss in endorsing Hollande after April 22. He was supposed to run this year, but he dropped out. This likely plays to Daubresse’s advantage. He faces Hélène Parra, a PS regional and local councillor. The runoff will be a traditional left-right battle, which should probably turn out to Daubresse’s advantage.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
5th (Seclin/Haubourdin, UMP)*: Gains the canton of La Bassée, loses the commune of Loos in the canton of Haubourdin. This is a key swing seat. Hollande won 50.3% in this seat, which includes the old textile towns of Seclin and Haubourdin in suburban Lille. It now extends to La Bassée (a little move to shore up the right...), whose chef-lieu lies in the coal mining basin. Seclin and Haubourdin are both old PCF strongholds, and the towns proper remain fairly blue-collar and lower-income. Hollande won both of them, with about 53-54% (which I think is probably waaaaaaaay lower than what Mitt’rrand might have won here in 1965 or 1981). A lot of the other parts of the seat have turned into fairly well-off middle-class suburbs of Lille. Sarko won the canton of La Bassée (though lost the extremities which are in the mining basin) and did well in most other suburbs. The FN also has a foothold here: Marine won 22% of the vote here, but took 26% in Haubourdin or La Bassée (the towns themselves). This region had basically been a left-wing stronghold from 1962 to… 2002. The old fifth constituency even voted PS in 1993. Martine Aubry won 60.8% in the runoff in 1997. In 2002, however, Aubry was defeated by a young nobody – Sébastien Huyghe – who won with 51.1% in the runoff against Aubry, a monumental defeat for Aubry which led to her famous tears that night. In 2007, Huyghe confirmed a sharp right-wing trend here, winning narrow reelection with 50.7%. In 2008, however, Aubry staged her revenge when he got his ass handed to him in the local election in Lille, where Aubry won a monumental 66% in the runoff and landed Huyghe a massive blow. This year, he faces a rather tough contest. His PS opponent is Alain Cacheux – the incumbent in the old third which finds itself eliminated in this redistricting. Cacheux’ old seat was exclusively lillois, and none of its parts were given to this constituency. But the whole area is pretty much a giant city, so I doubt ‘carpetbagging’ will be too much of an issue here. Cacheux will need to deal with Bernard Debreu, the PCF mayor of Seclin (11.7% for Mélenchon in this seat, fairly crappy result), while Huyghe will need to make sure that the FN doesn’t get into a fatal triangulaire. I have a hard time seeing Huyghe survive in a climate like 2012. I don’t know a whole lot about his strengths on the ground or as an incumbent (though he is boosted a tiny bit by redistricting), but my hunch isn’t optimistic in his favour.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)
 
6th (Pont-à-Marcq/Pévèle, DVD-UMP): This seat is unchanged. It remains composed of Lille’s western suburbs and exurbs, and is traditionally right-wing. Sarko won 56.1% here; his second best result in the department. He was, of course, boosted by the upper middle-class affluent suburbs which make up this constituency, notably in the canton of Cysoing (about 59% for Sarko) but also in Lannoy (the canton is cut in two: the most affluent and right-wing parts are in this constituency). Only Orchies proper and Ostricourt (which I think is an isolated mining basin town) are more working-class and left-leaning. Marine also did fairly mediocrely: 18.7%, doing best in the most exurban parts of this constituency, less affluent and less integrated in the lillois metropolis. Since 1993, this seat has been held by Thierry Lazaro (UMP) who gained it from the PS that year. In 1997 he won by a very tight margin (50.1%) but in 2007 he was returned with 56.6% in the runoff. With the FN out of contention for the runoff in this constituency, Lazaro should not have too much trouble defeating the PS candidate, a local councillor. There is, however, a DVD candidacy from the CG for Cysoing which could trouble things.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

Part 2

7th (Hem, NC)*: This constituency loses the parts of Roubaix-Centre and Roubaix-Est it included, while gaining Roubaix-Ouest. The constituency includes part of the canton of Lannoy (Hem) and all of Roubaix-Ouest, which also includes two affluent suburban communities (both solidly for Sarko). The old seventh, which included right-leaning suburbs in Lannoy but dirt-poor parts of the very deprived blue-collar cities of Roubaix and Wattrelos, was very marginal, held in 2007 by a margin of some 200 votes by the NC incumbent, Francis Vercamer. Marleix decided to gerrymander a shored-up constituency, which loses the parts which don’t vote correctly and added those who generally do – Roubaix-Ouest, where the bulk of the population lives in two affluent suburban towns (overall, 52% for Sarko). Sarko hence won the new boundaries with 52.9%. The new boundaries also had the nice effect of taking out parts of Wattrelos where the FN is very strong – in the old seventh, the Greenie Guy Hascoët (yeah, the guy who is now living like a hippie in Breizh or something) had won in 1997 thanks to a triangulaire de la mort with the FN (which averaged 19-24% or so in the old seat, iirc). Marine only won 17.9% here, thus basically eliminating the risk of a triangulaire. Vercamer is very nicely shored up by Marleix’s creative use of Gerry-DeLay scissors. I don’t think he should have much trouble this year; the PS candidate seems like a nobody.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
 
8th (Poor People in Roubaix-Wattrelos Leftie Reserve, PS-DVG)*: While Marleix shored up the right in the seventh, he packed the lefties into an Indian Reserve. This seat gains Roubaix-Centre and Roubaix-Est, while losing Roubaix-Ouest. The new seat is ultra-safe for the left, Hollande took 61.2% of the vote, on Sarko placed third behind Marine with only 18% in the first round. This seat includes almost all of Roubaix (67% Hollande) and Wattrelos (54.5% Hollande). Roubaix, the old textile capital of France – the French Manchester – is nowadays a very low-income and economically disadvantaged blue-collar cité populaire with 76% of people living in a ZUS and a large (30-40%?) foreign-born population. Wattrelos is not as dirt poor, but remains a low-income working-class city – but more WWC than the new mix of immigrants which predominates in Roubaix. The FN is strong in Wattrelos (27.8% for Marine) but much weaker in Roubaix (15.6%), but overall Marine won 21.3% and very distant second. The old eight was more swingy because of its composition, Marleix’ redistricting shores up the left. The old eight was won by the UDF in 1988, 1993 and 2002, but the PS won it in a triangulaire in 1997 and won it back in 2007 when the UDF-MoDem incumbent retired. Dominique Baert, mayor of Wattrelos, won in 1997 and again in 2007. In 2007, he took 56.9% in the runoff. This year, Baert faces a fight on the left. Indeed, he got shafted by the PS when they endorsed EELV (Slimane Tir) here. Tir is a local councillor in Roubaix, where he is in opposition to the PS mayor. While Roubaix sure as hell doesn’t scream bobogreenie country, Tir and the Greens seem rather well implanted locally; his list won 18.1% in a three-way runoff against the PS incumbent (René Vandierendonck, who is actually a former UDF dude) in 2008. His suppléant is a PS local councillor in Wattrelos, but I’m kind of foreseeing a regional battle between Baert in Wattrelos and EELV-PS in Roubaix. There’s lots of disagreement out there on who will win, which I’ll be a wet chicken and cop out of participating in. The UMP will likely be eliminated from the runoff, and unless the FN places second (which I doubt it will) it too will be eliminated in a region which is well known for very low turnout. There is a risk for a Tir-Baert duel in the runoff, a very small chance for a triangulaire between the two lefties and the FN, and the possibility that the leftie who places second drops out and endorses the guy who places on top. The ‘left’ wins here, but which one it will be… well, I’m a wet chicken.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

9th (Marcq-en-Barœul/Tourcoing-sud, UMP)*: Gains Lille-NE (except for the commune of Mons-en-Barœul). Sarko won 58.3% here, his best result in the department. A result due almost entirely to the weight of the canton of Mons-en-Barœul, which gave Sarko a bit less than 69% of the vote – including 81% in Bondues. This canton breaks stereotypes about the Nord being like West Virginia – full of inbred rednecks/coal miners with a weird accent and missing half their teeth. This canton is one of the wealthiest in the country, it's really an upper middle-class/upper-class constituency. Otherwise, the seat has included since 1986 the canton of Tourcoing-Sud (55% Sarko) where the more leftie leanings of parts of Tourcoing are canceled out in the affluent town of Mouvaux. The addition of Lille-NE, which largely includes the gentrified middle-class neighborhood of Saint-Michel Pellevoisin makes it a bit more leftie on the whole, but not in a way which threatens the Gaullist/conservative dominance which has prevailed here since 1958. The UMP incumbent, Bernard Gérard, mayor of Marcq, won 60.2% by the first round in 2007. There's a nice chance he could win by the first round, like the right had also done in 1993 and 2002, but whatever the case, the right will win handily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe right

10th (Tourcoing/Vallée de la Lys, RPF-DVD): This constituency is unchanged. It includes all of Tourcoing save for the part included in the ninth constituency, but also the suburban communities which are included in the cantons of Tourcoing-N and NE. Sarko won 53.2% in this constituency, losing in Tourcoing, the old working-class textile town (55.5% for Hollande, Sarko had won it in 2007), but prevailing in the rest of the constituency - largely middle-class suburbia but also winning by a comfortable margin in Halluin, an old working-class textile town on the Belgian border. This constituency has shifted hard to the right, even if Tourcoing remains left-leaning on balance. Marine won 22.3% here, including 21% in Tourcoing and 25% in Halluin. Politically, the seat reelected an incumbent only once, in 2007. The PS won in 1988 and 1997, while the right won in 1993, 2002 and 2007. In terms of personalities, the seat has alternated since 1988 between Jean-Pierre Balduyck, the former PS mayor of Tourcoing; and Christian "Frothy" Vanneste. Vanneste won reelection with 58.6% in the runoff in 2007, but in 2008 his high-profile attempt to conquer the city of Tourcoing from the left failed epically, losing by the first round. Vanneste, a scumbag who would render the world a great service if he got run over by a truck, has a major Santorumite obsession about TEH GAYS (SAVE TEH CHILDREN!111) and FAMILY VALUES!111. He's a known homophobe, and would probably have been a keen collabo in 1940. He crossed the no-no line with the UMP big bosses earlier this year when he went off the deep end and denied that Nazis ever deported homosexuals. So he's running for reelection as a dissident, having joined - for some reason - Pasqua's old moribund outfit, the RPF. Unlike in 2007 (when he had already run as a DVD, because the UMP wasn't keen on endorsing Frothy), however, he faces UMP opposition - Gérald Darmanin - the leader of the municipal opposition in Tourcoing. The PS candidate is Zina Dahmani, local councillor in Tourcoing, whose suppleant is the PS mayor of Halluin. Unlike in 1997, I don't think the FN can qualify for a three-way runoff here. I think Frothy will come out ahead of the UMP, but I can't assess what consequences the troubles on the right will have for Frothy in a runoff. I'm a pessimist, but I'd give Frothy a narrow edge here. A Frothy-UMP-PS runoff would, however, probably allow the PS to win. Could somebody please run him over with a tractor?
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

11th (Armentières/Lomme, PS)*: This seat loses La Bassée but gains Lille-SO. Hollande won here with 53.8%. Armentières, a major working-class textile town and historic PS stronghold, is the main town in this constituency. It also includes Lomme, a former industrial commune now attached to Lille where it is a lower middle-class residential neighborhood; the other communes in the canton of Lomme are all quite affluent and solidly right-wing. The addition of Lille-SO really shores up the left here, it gave 63% to Hollande. It includes parts of Wazemmes, Lille-Sud, the Faubourg de Bethune and Bois Blancs; most of these neighborhoods except perhaps Wazemmes and Bois Blancs are impoverished cité populaire areas and generally solidly leftie. The seat has been held by the left since 1958 with the exception of 1993. Save for 1993, Yves Durand (PS) has been the deputy here since 1988. He won with 52.3% in 2007, a bit more than the 50.something he won by in 2002 - he did, however, beat the incumbent with 59.1% in 1997. Durand is running for another term, he should win easily against low-profile opposition. Marine won 19.4%, I don't think the FN will make the triangulaire unless the UMP is eliminated by the first round which I don't think is very likely.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

12th (Le Quesnoy, PS)*: The new twelfth is basically the old 22nd, compared to that seat it gains the cantons of Hautmont, Avesnes-sud and Landrecies while losing Le Cateau-Cambrésis. Hollande won 54% in this constituency, the main bases of the left being the PCF stronghold of Aulnoye, in the extension of the Sambre valley (like Hautmont or other towns in the canton of Berlaimont, which gave no less than 61% to Hollande overall), the canton of Solesmes (not Fillon's Solesmes! - this one is a working-class town, an old textile town) and the canton of Carnières (Avesnes-les-Aubert, a textile and railway town, a PCF stronghold in which Mélenchon placed first!). The bulk of this region has old leftie traditions, and a proletarian past rooted in textiles, railway lines or other industries. Besides some more affluent suburbs in Le Quesnoy-ouest/est and Solesmes, this is also a fairly poor region and it is economically troubled as well. Marine won 25.2% against a bit over 22% for Sarko here. With exceptions like 1958, 1968 or 1993, the left - PS today, PCF for a time in the 60s and 70s - has been dominant in this region. The PS even won this seat (the 22nd) in 1993. Christian Bataille (PS) has held this seat since 1988. In 2007, he won 52.8%. The PCF won 13.9% in the first round in 2007 and Mélenchon won 14.5% in the new boundaries, sign of a certain PCF influence in towns like Saint-Vaast or Avesnes-les-Aubert. Bataille will win easily, especially if it ends up as PS-FN or even in a triangulaire. The performance of Bernard Baudoux, the PCF CG/mayor of Aulnoye who ran here in 2007 will be interesting.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

13th (Dunkerque Lefties Indian Reserve, MRC)*: Another nice 'reserve' constituency. This seat loses Dunkerque-est but gains the entirety of Dunkerque-ouest and Grande-Synthe. Dunkerque-est included some more affluent coastal parts of Dunkerque, so it is shifted and replaced by the canton of Grande-Synthe, a working-class and industrial leftie stronghold (70.9% for Hollande... 65.7% in the canton). Dunkerque-ouest also has leftie working-class strongholds: Coudekerque-Branche, Cappelle-la-Grande. Dunkerque voted for Sarko in 2007, but overall gave 55.5% to Hollande this year, but the parts included in this seat are more leftie and more working-class/low income. Hollande won 59.7% here, while Marine took 25% on April 22 (up to 29% in Cappelle-la-Grande) against about 18.6% for Sarko. Christian Hutin, the MRC (ex-RPR) mayor of Saint-Pol-sur-Mer, first elected in 2007 in the 12th (64% in the runoff), is running here. He should win easily, and he will likely face the FN alone in the runoff.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

14th (Gravelines/Plaines de Flandre, UMP)*: Loses Cassel and Steenvoorde, gains Dunkerque-est and Gravelines. This likely makes it lean left a little more. Sarko won very narrowly, with 50.5%. The result of a pretty stark political division between Gravelines - a working-class city whose canton was 58% for Hollande, and the rest of the constituency (except for some leftie textile etc towns on the border with the PDC, like Watten) which covers the traditionally conservative and Catholic plains of Flanders. The right's margins in French Flanders are no longer what they once were (60-70% or so, in the 60s and 70s) but the region still leans to the right overall. The old 14th was more right-wing, the left only won once (in 1997) since 1958. In 2007, Jean-Pierre Decool (UMP) won a second term with 56.7% by the first round... Decool is running again this year, and faces Jean Schepman, the PS CG for Hondschoote. Marine won 24.5% and the FN could very possibly maintain its candidate in a triangulaire. This will be a very close contest, I think, and a lot depends on how the FN does and whether there is a triangulaire or not. I think, in the anticipation of a triangulaire, I would lean towards the left here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

15th (Merville/Hazebrouck/Flandre, PRV-UMP)*: Gains Cassel and Steenvoorde. Sarko won 50.7% here, but lost in the two main cities here - two working-class textile towns, Merville and Hazebrouck, both by significant margins. He also lost, narrowly, in Bailleul. In this suburban and exurban seat, Sarko dominated most the more "rural" areas, which have the Catholic and conservative tradition of French Flanders. Le Pen did fairly meh, with 22.9%, which in this case is about the votes needed to qualify for a 3-way runoff. The left has traditionally been quite dominant in this region, the left's only victory here was in 1997... and in 2002 - the right was divided in 2002, it likely hurt it in the narrow runoff against the PS incumbent, who won with 50.3%. When he retired in 2007, Françoise Hostalier, who had previously won in the 11th in 1993, won with 51.9% in the runoff. She's running against this year, and faces a tough PS duo: Jean-Pierre Allossery, CG/mayor of Hazebrouck and Michel Gilloen, CG/mayor of Bailleul as his suppleant. Hostalier will also suffer from the candidacy of Jean-Pierre Bataille, the DVD mayor of Steenvoorde and UMP dissident. Even if the FN does not make it into a three-way runoff, I would think that Hostalier, who doesn't appear to be a particularly well-entrenched or strong incumbent, will lose.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

16th (Marchiennes, FG-PCF)*: What a stupid constituency. Loses Auby, Râches, Raimbeaucourt, Roost-Warendin (canton of Douai-NE) but gains Sin-le-Noble and Waziers (canton of Douai-N). This constituency, which gave Hollande 63.6%, is a core mining basin constituency. All the communes of the cantons of Douai-N and NE included here are old mining villages, while most of Marchiennes also falls in the mining basin. With the mines closed, this region has retained the strong proletarian and communist tradition which has dominated here since the end of the nineteenth century. In terms of income, it remains a very poor constituency, except for the non-basin parts of Marchiennes, with high unemployment and economic ruin. In political terms, the PCF has held this seat since 1928/1932 at least, with the exception of 1958. The mining basin of the Nord, as opposed to that of the Pas-de-Calais, has always had a penchant for the most radical wing of the workers' movement, after Tours it opted for the PCF and formed the first PCF strongholds in the country. The PCF tradition remains strong, the canton of Marchiennes has been in Communist hands since 1945 at least save for six years in the 1970s, and the PCF also holds Douai-N. The PCF holds a bunch of communes in this constituency too. Finally, Mélenchon won 20.2% here, and won a few old PCF strongholds (Waziers). Sarko placed fourth with 16.2%, while Marine did extremely well with 25.2%. Georges Hage (PCF) held this seat between 1973 and 2007, and oftentimes the main competition came from the PS, which, placing second, invariably dropped out and allowed the PCF to win unopposed in the runoff. Only in 2007 did the UMP finally managed to place second (with 23.8% against 32.9% for the PCF's Jean-Jacques Candelier and 20.7% for the PS). In the runoff, Candelier, mayor of Bruille-les-Marchiennes, won 66.1%. He will face a PS candidate again, Christian Entem, mayor of Sin-le-Noble, but his reelection is very likely. Either the PS or FN will place second.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

17th (Douai, FG-PG)*: Gains Auby, Râches, Raimbeaucourt, Roost-Warendin (canton of Douai-NE), loses Sin-le-Noble and Waziers (canton of Douai-N). This constituency is centered on Douai, a regional centre for the mining basin with some old mining neighborhoods and mines itself. Douai leans left more often than not, but has been governed by the right since 1983. Besides places in the canton of Douai-NE, this region lies a bit in the periphery of the mining basin, and does not contain a whole lot of old mines or mining villages. It remains a working-class and fairly low-income region, though with some more middle-class pockets. Hence, the region is left strongly leftie. Hollande won 56.7% here, though Sarko still placed a bad third in the first round with a bit over 21% against 24.4% for Panzergirl. The PCF has not held this seat since it took its recognizable shape in 1986, though it did win 16.1% in 1997. The right won here in 1993, but otherwise since 1988, this seat has been held by Marc Dolez, who in 2008 become one of the co-founders of the PG. Dolez had been a key figure on the left-wing of the PS for quite some years. In 2007, as a PS candidate, he won reelection with 62.1% in the runoff. He should win another term, as a FG candidate opposed by a PS candidate, rather easily. The FN might make a triangulaire here, with no major effects.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

18th (Cambrai/Cambrésis, DLR)*: Gains Le Cateau-Cambrésis. The main town here is Cambrai, a politically divided (Hollande 50.8%) town which was historically less industrialized than its neighbors. Left-wing strength in this constituency which gave a narrow edge to Hollande (51.9%) is to be found in smaller industrial centres, first and foremost Caudry (textile town, 60% H), Escaudœuvres (sugar factory, 60%), Iwuy (58.2%) or Masnières (glass, 66.5% for Hollande and a strong PCF base). This is, in good part, a blue-collar and low-income constituency, fairly rural or semi-rural with a few regional centres and strong exurban influences all around. Marine won 25.1% here, and even better if you take out Cambrai. The right is fairly strong in more rural areas outside the smaller industrial centres. Traditionally left-wing, represented by the left between 1958 and 1973, Jacques Legendre, now a Senator, won in 1973 and 1978 before the PS won in 1981 and then in 1988. In 1997, François-Xavier Villain, the DVD mayor of Cambrai since 1992 was narrowly defeated by the PS but he won easily in 2002 (55.9%) and 2007 (57.5%). Villain is a member of NDA's party, DLR, but maintains better relations with the UMP than his boss. This year, the UMP is not running a candidate against him. The PS candidate is Martine Filleul - CG for... Lille-centre (?). Though Hollande won this constituency, I think Villain has a personal vote here. He's a popular mayor in Cambrai, and can win a significantly better result than Sarko won in that town. However, the very high risk of a triangulaire puts him in a weaker position, I don't know how well the FN will perform against a non-UMP maverick-type right-winger, but a triangulaire could very well cost him his seat. I'm at a loss.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup

19th (Denain, DVG): In this seat, we are back in the mining basin. Hollande won 60.8% here; Mélenchon won 17.8%, Marine took 26.9% while Sarko won all of 17.1%. The cantons of Denain, Valenciennes-sud (excluding the urban part of the city itself, in the 21st), and most of the canton of Bouchain lie in the mining basin. Denain, Escaudin, Douchy-les-Mines, Neuville-sur-Escaut, Sentinelle, Haulchain and Thiant are some of the main former mining villages in this constituency. Like in the 16th, the proletarian and left-wing traditions remain very strong here, despite the big gains made by the FN throughout the constituency and Marine's impressive results, even in a lot of PCF bastions. With a few exceptions, this is largely a working-class and very poor constituency, with major job loses and economic problems. Politically, the PCF and PS have fought over this seat, while the right finds itself excluded year after year. Indeed, the left has always held this seat, since 1958. The SFIO won in 1958, before the PCF held this seat between 1962 and 2002. Usually, legislative battles opposed PS and PCF candidates, the one who placed second invariably dropped out and allowed the winner to win unopposed. This is what has happened since 1997 here (maybe 1993 or 1988, I don't have numbers). In 2002, the PS mayor of Denain, Patrick Roy, the colourful and cheerful guy known for his red vest, came out narrowly ahead of the PCF incumbent, Patrick Leroy. Again in 2007, Roy won reelection unopposed after the PCF placed second with 21.3% against 32.8% for Roy. Roy tragically died in May 2011, he has been succeeded by Marie-Claude Marchand. This election will be a chance to see if Roy won because he had a personal vote, or if the PS is indeed predominant over the PCF. The FG candidate is Michel Lefebvre, the PCF CG for Denain and mayor of Douchy-les-Mines. I would think he is the favourite, especially because the PS is divided between the incumbent, Marchand, running as a dissident against Anne-Lise Dufour, PS mayor of Denain and the official PS candidate. There's of course a chance that Dufour comes out in first place, ahead of the FG, but I personally see the FG winning here. The FN has the support to place second and change things up a bit, but I doubt it will have a huge presence in the end.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

20th (Saint-Amand-les-Eaux, FG-PCF)*: Gains the commune of Vieux-Condé (canton of Condé-sur-l'Escaut); loses Valenciennes-nord. This seat is a final extension of the mining basin, centered around Saint-Amand-les-Eaux, not really a mining town per se (though fairly working-class, it's not dirt-poor either) but close to old mining villages including Vieux-Condé, Fresnes-sur-l'Escaut, Escautpont and now Anzin (the earliest mines), Beuvrages and Bruay-sur-l'Escaut. This region, notably Anzin and Saint-Amand-les-Eaux, also has blast furnaces and a steel industry. Hollande won 55.8% here, but Le Pen placed first here with 28% against 25% for Hollande and 20% for Sarko. The right finds a base in Saint-Amand (rive gauche), which includes some affluent communities (part of greater Lille). The PCF has been dominant here since 1962, save for one time in 1973 when a centrist won in a constituency covering parts of this one. Since 1978, the seat has been represented by Alain Bocquet (PCF), a fairly high-profile figure in the PCF (on the orthodox side of things) and a really popular local politician. He's been the mayor of Saint-Amand-les-Eaux since 1995, and he's very popular - his list in the regionals won 58% there... In 2007, he won 46.5% by the first round, and 69.2% in the runoff. The addition of Anzin theoretically weakens the PCF a bit as the canton has never really been a PCF stronghold - it's like the only mining basin canton not held by the PCF - but I doubt that's a trouble for him, he won Anzin in the 2010 regionals (hell, he basically swept the mining basin outside of Valenciennes and Douai). Bocquet faces some PS opposition and the FN can do pretty well here (though never as high at 28%), but he'll win handily again.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

21st (Valenciennes, PRV-UMP)*: Gains Valenciennes-nord, loses the commune of Vieux-Condé. This constituency includes the whole of Valenciennes, historically a city influenced and in part driven by the surrounding mining and steel industries, but which has had a fairly successful transition into tertiary activities and has become far more white-collar and much less working-class. Besides, it had always been a bit of a blue island in a sea of red: the right has held the city hall since Liberation. Sarko narrowly won Valenciennes, with a bit less than 52%. However, Hollande won the constituency with 52.2%. In the first round, Sarko (25%) placed second, ahead of Marine (22.7% overall). The constituency includes some old mining villages (Marly, Onnaing, Wallers, Quiévrechain, Condé-sur-l'Escaut) but also some more affluent suburbs shared with Le Quesnoy. Since 1993, this seat has been held by Jean-Louis Borloo, mayor of Valenciennes (1989-2002). Originally Borloo was something of a maverick/independent right-winger politician, who sat in the eccentric 'République et liberté' (alongside Royer, Soisson, Tapie, Taubira, Urbaniak, Zuccarelli) group in 1993-1997; but he evolved towards the mainstream right - specifically the PRV, of which he has become the leader and top figure. In 1997, he won reelection with 52.8% against the PCF's Fabien Thiémé (who held the seat between 88 and 93), in 2002 he beat the PCF again with 63.9% in the runoff. In 2007, he won 53.7% by the first round against 19.4% for Thiémé. Boundary changes are relatively minor, but I think Valenciennes-nord might help Borloo out a *tiny* bit. He once again faces Thiémé, former PCF deputy and mayor. The PS is backing Sandrine Rousseau, a EELV regional councillor. I don't think the FN can make the runoff and this could save Borloo (if they did, he's probably screwed). He has a personal vote in Valenciennes - 62% in the city against 54% in the constituency in 2007 (he won 66.6% in the city in the 1997 runoff, against 53% in the constituency). I think this and his relative popularity/stature (even if he's a really messy guy with an alleged penchant for the bottle) as a politician can save him.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: Tossup with right edge

That was painful to do. I hope you guys realize how much sh**t I'm putting into this to please you :)

BTW Fab, you only have until this Sunday to change your mind on French abroad, because the voting at the embassies and consulates are being held this weekend, a week ahead of France (I think French Polynesia is the same?).

But they won't publish results before the 10th, before the rest of France, will they ?
Are we so Americanized, now ? ;)

EDIT: well, I wasn't aware of this. You're right, it's the same for Polynesia.
So, on Monday, we'll have weird results abroad (and, unfortunately, I think, bad for the right) which will influence the medias in France, whereas the turnout will be low ?!?
Bah...
In a way, you aren't lucky to have Lefebvre and some Balkany in your constituency, but you have a very powerful vote, which will count far more than mine, in a gerrymandered utterly-leftist and uninteresting constituency !

---

Take a look at IFOP site: there are 2 polls on Corse-du-Sud 1 (Renucci beaten !!!) and Haute-Corse 2 (no surprise for Giacobbi). Absolutely no hope for nationalists, of course.

And there is a poll for Pyrénées-Orientales 4, don't know why... Stupid medias... While Pyr.-Or. 1 and 2 are far more interesting ::)

And there is a poll for Charente-Maritime 1 BUT only for the 1st round !
Royal 33 / Falorni 26 / young UMP sacrificial lamb 19,5 / FN 9 / EE-LV 4 / FG 3 / MoDem 3 / Rad. 2,5
Now, there could have been a scenario nobody has really anticipated:
we are in Charente-Maritime, aka as abstention land in a way; turnout is lower than 64% and the UMP doesn't make it to the 2nd round... who wins ? ;D
Sure, that's not likely, because the tense race around Royal will boost the turnout, but still... that would be fun to see Royal lose because the rightist voters pick a socialist local apaaratchik ! :P
(though a rational rightist voter should vote for Royal, hoping she'll become a second internal opposition, with Aubry, and to piss off "la Présidente", our real head of state, Mrs. Trierweiler :D)

Sorry, I didn't want to open a debate here (please post in the other thread if you want to discuss about Royal, guys).
But these local polls are of course of some interest in the predictions.
Even though we must take them with tons of salt, as the sample isn't hugely reliable (600 or 500 in Corsica, but, what is more, hastily selected and probably in an artificial way).

Fascinating reading, as always. :)

And thank you Fab for giving us the complete prediction map ! :D So, 270 seats for the PS itself and 340 for the left overall ? Eh, may you be right ! :P

They releashed P-O 3 yesterday. Apparently, P-O 1 and 2 are coming in the next days.
They build suspense, they publish the least interesting districts first...

Bonapartist? Wtflol? (going to read Nord now! :D )

We also have Haute-Corse 1: a big surprise (but maybe not for you, Hash ;)) as the latest Zuccarelli seems to be threatened.

---

I haven't read Nord yet, Hash, but, already, big thanks and acknowledgement of your work.
I've just read and put some colours on a map, and it already took me a lot of time. So, I can imagine...

I wasn't sure what to expect, but as I kinda expected, the UMP seems to be beating lil Zuccarelli because the nationalists are going hardcore for the UMP in the runoff, in a massive anti-Zuccarelli vote, second coming. Corsica's gonna have some hilarious results this year.

On a side note, I just saw the UMP clip. It's basically "I'm a moron/fascist/xenophobe/idiot, so I'm voting UMP"

Seine-et-Marne
2007: 9 UMP
 
1st (Melun, UMP)*: Gains Melun-Nord, loses the cantons of Savigny-le-Temple and Le Mée-sur-Seine. Sarko won 51% in this constituency, although Hollande won 56% in Melun (which Sarko had narrowly won in 2007), which is now included in its entirety in this constituency. Melun has been governed by the Gaullist family since 1971, but as a fairly lower middle-class suburban city (lower incomes, a large proportion of ouvriers+employees; the north of Melun has a large ZUS), it has a small lean to the left. Besides Dammarie-lès-Lys, a banlieue populaire just outside of Melun (a large ZUS) which went 59% in Hollande’s way, the right remains very strong in the remainder of the constituency, largely a middle/upper middle class suburban region. Marine won 17.8% here. This seat has been held by Jean-Claude Mignon, the RPR-UMP mayor of Dammarie-lès-Lys since 1983, since the 1988 elections. He won 54% in 1997, under less favourable boundaries, and won 57% in his last reelection in 2007. Mignon is running for another term, and faces Lionel Walker, a DVG CG and local mayor (in a fairly right-wing town), who is backed by the PS. Pierre Carassus, the MDC deputy for the old third between 1995 and 2002, is running here. This race will be closer than in 1997, even if the redistricting has shored up the right with the removal of Savigny-le-Temple and Le Mée-sur-Seine. There is a trend to the left in this area, as some younger middle-class families with more leftiegreenie orientations move in. I would think Mignon would win, but I could be wrong.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right
 
2nd (Fontainebleau/Nemours, UMP^): This constituency is unchanged. Fontainebleau and its famous palace is the main town in this constituency, with the smaller town of Nemours. Fontainebleau is an affluent upper middle-class suburb, much like the rest of the constituency besides the canton of Château-Landon, an exurban lower middle-class canton on the border with the Loiret. Sarko won 54.7% here, including 61% in Fontainebleau. Hollande won in Nemours. Marine, in the first round, won 18.5%, with a sharp contrast between affluent and privileged Fontainebleau (13% in the canton) and poorer exurban Château-Landon (25%). The right has held this seat for ages. The retiring incumbent here is Didier Julia, who has held this seat since 1967, making him the longest-serving member. He won handily in the past, but as he got a bit cuckoo (the Iraq affair) and old, in 2007 he faced tough competition from Frédéric Vallentoux, the DVD mayor of Fontainebleau who placed second in the first round and won 42.2% in the runoff. Julia is retiring this year, and while the right should logically hold this seat rather easily – the PS candidate placed third in 2007 – it is divided between 3 strong candidates. Julia’s anointed successor is the UMP’s Valérie Lacroute, mayor of Nemours since 2008. But she faces a dissident candidacy from Vallentoux, mayor of Fontainebleau, but also another DVD dissident, Jean-François Robinet, CG for Fontainebleau and also a local mayor. The right’s division, always more dangerous than the impression that the usual superficial runoff unity could give, may haunt it and result in a fluke PS gain, if vote transfers from one right-winger to another are bad on June 17, as sometimes happens in these case. I still think the right should win here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
 
3rd (Montereau/Basse Seine, PRV-UMP)*: Loses the canton of Melun-Nord and gains the canton of Mormant. This is a marginal constituency, which gave Sarko a tiny edge with 50.3% of the votes. The main town in this constituency, Montereau-Fault-Yonne, is a fairly working-class and lower income town, which gave Hollande no less than 63%. Champagne-sur-Seine, an old industrial and working-class town in the next-door canton of Moret-sur-Loing, gave 58% Hollande. The right is boosted by the suburbs, not all that affluent but fairly well-off in large part. However, the canton of Mormant is really outside the area of privileged, integrated suburbia and is closer to distant exurbia – the FN’s famous périurbain lointain – it less affluent, has way less professionals and residents have been forced out of the big city and commute long distances to work. Marine won 21.6% in this constituency, but took 26% in the canton of Mormant. The addition of Mormant’s canton, which went to Sarko with 53.5%, shores up the right (Melun-Nord, which it replaces, gave 53.7% to Hollande) in this constituency. The right has usually been dominant here, but the left – Pierre Carassus (MDC) won a 1995 by-election and narrowly won in 1997. In 2002, Yves Jégo, the UMP mayor of Montereau, picked up this seat with 57.6% and won reelection with 63.5% in 2007. Jégo, a short-lived cabinet minister who has since sided with Borloo (peeved at losing his job, probs), faces a much tougher contest this year. There is a dissident candidacy on the right by a local mayor. On the left, the PS’ Patricia Inghelbrecht, is a local councillor, but there is A PRG candidate who is a local mayor too. The distant possibility of the FN qualifying for the runoff would likely spell Jégo’s defeat, but in the absence of such a 3-way battle, he still faces a tough race. I think he can prevail, in part by the strength of his local base in Montereau.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge
 
4th (Brie/Provins, UMP): This seat is unchanged. The fourth is a large and sprawling seat in the east of the department, traditionally a rural region which is far more of an exurban region nowadays. The right has been very strong here, Sarko won with 56.9% (his best result in the department) but the FN has also been very present in this sector (Marine placed second with 26.3%, while Hollande won only 21.5%). The usual descriptor of this seat being ‘rural’ misses the point unless your definition of rural also means exurban with no farmers. Except for parts of the canton of Rozay-en-Brie, you have a bunch of growing exurban small towns, lower middle-class with lots of ouvriers or employees, who commute long distances to work. This is, once again, very much the FN’s périurbain lointain, which is one of the FN’s new major bases. Marine won about 27% on average in the more exurban parts of this constituency, which in a right-left scenario remain very much a ‘terre de mission’ for the left, which is very weak in these distant residential exurbs filled with white flight/petits blancs and so forth. This seat has long been held by the right (save for 1981-1982), most notably Alain Peyrefitte who won for the first time in 1958 and finally retired in 1995. Since then, it has been held the copéite Christian Jacob, mayor of Provins and president of the UMP parliamentary group. In 2007, gobbling up FN votes, he won by the first round with 54.7%. The FN was alone against the right in the runoff in 1993 and qualified for a triangulaire in 1997, which almost cost Jacob his head. There is a very real chance for a triangulaire, but low turnout means that there’s also a big chance that the left could be out by the first round, hence why PS and EELV are running a single candidate. Even in a triangulaire, I think Jacob will prevail. The left winning here would be huge.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
 
5th (Coulommiers, UMP)*: Loses Meaux-Sud. Sarko won 56.1%, his second best result in the department. This is a suburban and exurban region – the banlieues pavillonnaires, largely middle-class or upper middle-class.  It is less distant and less “rural” than the fifth constituency, which is almost exclusively exurban. Here, only the canton of La-Ferté-sous-Jouarre and part of that of Coulommiers are really exurban, in the generally accepted sense of more lower middle-class communities. Marine won 22.5% here, doing best in La-Ferté-sous-Jouarre with 24.7% and Coulommiers with 24.6%. Hollande managed second with 23.3%. The right has long been dominant in this constituency. Between 1988 and 2007, the seat was held by Guy Drut, the athlete turned corrupt RPR crony. In 2007, Franck Riester won here with 59%. Riester is also the UMP mayor of Coulommiers. This year, he faces Elisabeth Ecuyer, a PS local mayor. There is an outside chance of the FN qualifying for the runoff, like it did in 1997 (Drut still won with 45% against 40.1%) but in any scenario, I think he’ll win pretty easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured
 

6th (Meaux, UMP)*: Gains Meaux-Nord, thus unifying the whole of Meaux in a single seat, but loses Mitry-Mory and the communes of Dammartin-en-Goële, Le Mesnil-Amelot, Longperrier, Mauregard, Moussy-le-Neuf, Moussy-le-Vieux, Othis, Thieux et Villeneuve-sous-Dammartin in the canton of Dammartin-en-Goële. Sarko narrowly won this seat with 52%, while losing 54-46 in Meaux. Meaux is a fairly low-income city, with 46% of the population living in a ZUS and there’s a lot of social housing in the commune, so the fact that it would vote for Hollande is not that surprising, unlike what the clueless journalists seem to assume. That being said, the city has been governed by the right since 1995, specifically by Jean-François Copé, also the deputy in this constituency and the big boss of the UMP. The rest of the constituency in its new shape includes a mix of residential suburbs and exurbs, of varying income and social status. Marine won 22.7% here, low performances in Meaux (17.7%) being compensated by 27% in Lizy-sur-Ourcq, a largely exurban canton. Marine’s votes here, like in the other constituencies of the department, flowed fairly smoothly towards Sarko in the runoff. The PS won here in 1988 and 1997. In 1997, Copé was the victim of a triangulaire with the FN, in which he won 40.7% against 44.1% for the PS. In 2002, Copé defeated Nicole Bricq, the PS incumbent, with 59% in the runoff. In 2007, Copé won 54.3% by the first round; again he clearly gobbled up FN votes early. Marleix’s scissors were kind on Copé, removing the canton of Mitry-Mory – the PCF’s main base in the department which gave 51% to Hollande – and adding Meaux-Sud, which Sarko won with 51.5%. Yet, Copé is still facing a direct threat. But he’s lucky that the PS gave this seat (instead of the new leftie 11th) to EELV, not really very strong in this part of the 77, and perhaps a bit less of a threat than a stronger PS candidate would be (but the left has no real bench in this constituency, with no CGs and not many big mayors). The FN candidate is, like in the past, Marie-Christine Arnautu, vice-president of the FN. There is a risk for a triangulaire in which case the left could feasibly win, but my gut tells me that Copé will hang on, even if it could be by a tight margin which is a bit too close for comfort.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

7th (Claye-Souilly/Mitry-Mory, UMP)*: Gains Mitry-Mory and the communes of Dammartin-en-Goële, Le Mesnil-Amelot, Longperrier, Mauregard, Moussy-le-Neuf, Moussy-le-Vieux, Othis, Thieux et Villeneuve-sous-Dammartin in the canton of Dammartin-en-Goële. It loses Chelles and Vaires-sur-Marne. Sarko won 51.6% here. He lost handily (43 against 57) in the town of Mitry-Mory proper, an historical stronghold of the PCF – I think it’s a fairly working-class/proletarian hinterland kinda place. The margin in the canton of Lagny-sur-Marne (51-49), a fairly affluent suburban canton, was perhaps a bit too close for comfort for the right. This rather urbanized and all-over ‘Parisian’ region does not have a very clear and solid political identity, though it leans to the right in national elections. The urban growth from Paris, with young families and so forth moving into these and other areas, favours the left. The left is, on balance, hurt by the redistricting here, but even on the old boundaries the right won in 1997 (but not in 1988). In 2007, Yves Albarello, UMP mayor of Claye-Souilly, won 55.5% in the runoff. He faces Sophie Cerqueira, a PS local councillor in Noisiel. Marine won 21%, which I don’t think will be enough for a triangulaire. The right should hold on narrowly in this one too.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

8th (Torcy/Roissy-en-Brie, UMP)*: Loses Noisiel and Champs-sur-Marne. Hollande won here with 51.2%, a result due in very large part to the cities of Torcy (64%) and Roissy-en-Brie (59%)... indeed, those are basically the only major communes he won in this constituency! Torcy and Roissy-en-Brie are not quite cités populaires, the latter definitely not. They're not breaking records for their wealth and most the population are employees or ouvriers, but at the same time they're generally lower middle/middle class, fairly well educated and young. Generally a kind of middle-class leftie petite bourgeoisie, not quite bobo but close to it, a population of public servants and public sector employees, young families looking for cheaper property prices and so forth. Torcy is a bit more populaire on balance, and has a larger foreign-born population. Still, neither of these two communes include ZUS. The left won here in 1988 and 1997, but the boundaries back then where way more favourable to the left. That being said, this area has generally trended towards the left since then. Since 2002, the seat has been held by Chantal Brunel (UMP), who is pretty much a racist douchebag. She won 51.7% in 2002 and 50.9% in 2007, but again the loss of the two cantons has shifted it towards the right some. Brunel is running again - a pity she didn't get the FN endorsement (in passing, Marine won about 15% here, the second lowest result in the department), she'd have been a perfect fit - and faces Eduardo Rihan Cypel (PS), a local and regional councillor. For once I won't be pessimistic about the chances of a deputy I loathe, because I think the left has a solid chance to win here.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)

9th (Combs-la-Ville, UMP)*: Loses the canton of Mormant and all of the canton of Combs-la-Ville except for Combs-la-Ville itself. Sarko won 51.8% here, narrowly losing to Hollande in middle-class Pontault-Combault, and lost by a big margin in the middle-class new town of Combs-la-Ville. In affluent small town suburbia in Brie-Comte-Robert, Sarko easily dominated overall. Hollande did pretty well for a PS candidate in this region, there seems to be some population growth, again, from younger families moving out of Paris into the increasingly well integrated suburbs of the 77 for lower property prices. This isn't yet a 'forced' or 'compelled' move to exurbia which makes you love Panzergirl... The left won here when it won nationally, in 1988 and 1997 - again, this is a type of suburbia whose political identity is not really all that clear or rock-solid. Guy Geoffroy, the villepiniste UMP mayor of Combes-la-Ville, has held this seat since 2002. He won 52.7% in 2002 and 54.6% in 2007. Marine won 18.4%, so the chances of a triangulaire are low. He faces PS local councillor Sébastien Podevyn. The left can win here, and Geoffroy imperatively needs to hold Sarko's runoff margin plus do better in his city (Combs-la-Ville, where he performed below his constituency-wide average in 2007 but won it with 54% still) than Sarko did (Hollande won it with 57%). I will give the right a tiny edge here too. I must say that the 7th and this one are pretty tough by their nature as what Siegfried would call "marais politiques" (which are annoying!)
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

10th (Chelles/Noisiel/Champs-sur-Marne, notional PS)+: This new seat includes the cantons of Chelles, Champs-sur-Marne, Noisiel and Vaires-sur-Marne. Hollande won 57.9% overall, including 60.6% in Champs-sur-Marne (the town) and 68% in Noisiel. This is a nice 'reserve' constituency, like the other new seat (the 11th). Marleix's clear goal was to shore up other right-wing seats and make sure that the left would win, generally, 2-3 seats out of 11 in the department. This constituency includes the left-wing strongholds of the north of the department. Chelles, a former working-class city, is now a comfortable middle-class suburb, a bit like Torcy. Champs-sur-Marne, a PCF stronghold, is not really working-class, but likely has a large student population and is otherwise a comfortable middle-class suburb. Noisiel is a bit poorer and there are a lot of HLMs, though no ZUS, and some social problems, but it isn't a dump either. The PS will have no trouble in winning here. Their candidate is Emeric Bréhier, a local councillor in Chelles.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

11th (Savigny-le-Temple/Le Mée-sur-Seine, notional PS)+: This is reserve #2, covering the leftie strongholds of the south of the department, the cantons of Savigny-le-Temple, Le Mée-sur-Seine and the canton of Combs-la-Ville except for Combs-la-Ville itself. These towns are basically new towns in the Melun-Sénart area. Savigny-le-Temple, a PS stronghold with 65% in the town itself, is a middle-class suburban community with a bunch of young families. Le Mée-sur-Seine, on the other hand, at 60% for Hollande, is a cité populaire (43% live in a ZUS). Moissy-Cramayel and Nandy, two other new towns in the same area, have a similar demographic profile to Savigny-le-Temple. Once again, this seat was one of the two leftie strongholds created by Marleix's scissors in order to ensure that the main leftie strongholds get packed into "inoffensive" constituencies. The PS, their candidate is Olivier Faure, will have no trouble winning here either. Hollande won 59.9%
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

Vaucluse seems like a fine one to do next... we're running out of really interesting places.

I'm really curious about how the results turn up in my constituency and in the other constituencies. With the internet voting on top of the uncertainty, novelty and low turnout dynamics; this is all quite unpredictable. Fab's guesses seem like a pretty good starting point. The PS will easily win in the African constituency, the German one and probably the British one. I don't want to be one of the idiots who gets hyped up about a boring contest only because it's "at home", but my constituency is, afaik, the most open-ended race and a great pure tossup. You have a right-wing lean to this constituency, but the right has 600 candidates and a beyond-awful official UMP candidate; the PS has a local and competent candidate. Judging from the emails which have been flooding in, Fredo must really be sh**tting his pants right now. His campaign seems to be running on the fact that he served in parliament before, that he's endorsed by a bunch of UMP hacks or that he's the "legitimate" candidate of the right. He's taken the route every candidate in his situation usually takes, the "I will speak the truth"/"from the bottom of my earth" bullsh**t. On the other hand, while lil Balkany seems eerily quiet, JJSS' son is really hyped up and seems to believe he has a lot of momentum (he got some independent candidate to drop out and endorse him). I think Fredo could conceivably be knocked out by either lil Balkany or JJSS' son by the first round, which would be so epic and awesome. JJSS could probably win in the runoff, but I have my doubts about Balkany and certainly Fredo's abilities to win in the runoff. The right-wing dissidents are basically all saying that the PS would win if Fredo was her opponent and that only them can unite the "right and centre".

On my side, I hope my candidate wins...


...over 1-2% of the vote that is. She has no campaign, but that's how I like it. Having an email inbox which is filled with "personalized" messages from right-wing candidates is quite annoying. The kooky Gaullist nutjob is particularly big on trolling my inbox.

I'm wondering if there is a historical rule of thumb of how often the leader in the first round goes on to  win the runoff in the legislative elections in France. I'm guessing its in the 90%+ range but it would be interesting to see a historical chart.
    In this years election, I'm wondering what will happen if the UMP and PS each get around 33% first round nationwide votes, in terms of how many first place finishers each party will have throughout France. I'm guessing the UMP would have a few more as their vote might be more strategically spread out?

Vaucluse
2007: 4 UMP

1st (Avignon, UMP^): Hollande won 52.2% here, by far his best result in this very right-wing department. Marine won 22.8% and third place, easily her worst result. This constituency is centered on the city of Avignon, which has always been more left-wing than the department but which gave Hollande a sizable 55-45 gap this year. He took 61% in Avignon-Sud, which includes the most 'populaire' parts of the city, but also 53% in Avignon-Ouest which includes some more bobo parts in the old town. I suppose he won the parts of Avignon-Nord and Avignon-Est which are in the city itself, but narrowly lost in these two cantons because of the inclusion of Le Pontet (55% Sarko, after 31% for Le Pen) and Morieres-les-Avignon (59% Sarko). But in the long term, the city has shifted to the right. Since 1995, it has been governed by the RPR-UMP's Marie-Josée Roig. The constituency elected right-wingers only in 1958 and 1968, then again in 1993 and the last two elections. The PS won the seat in 1988 and then again in 1997, when Elisabeth Guigou narrowly defeated the incumbent 'depute-maire' Marie-Josée Roig in a triangulaire de la mort with the FN. Guigou's move to seek elections in way more favourable lands allowed the UMP to easily win this seat back in 2002, with 58.4% in the runoff for Roig. She won 56.7% in 2007, but her reelection in Avignon in 2008 was quite narrow. Roig is retiring this year. The UMP has endorsed Valérie Wagner, a PRV 'adjointe' in Avignon. But there are two DVD candidacies. The PS has the same candidate as in 2007, Michèle Fournier-Armand, PS CG for Avignon-Sud. The PCF CG for Avignon-Est, André Castelli, is running for the FG. With an incumbent retiring and right seemingly divided, I bet on a PS victory here. A triangulaire would further ruin the chances of the right here.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean left (GAIN)

2nd (Cavaillon/Durance, UMP)*: Loses Gordes, Apt and Pertuis. Sarko won 57.8% here, while Marine won second place with 26.9% - Hollande placed third (21.4%). The main town here is Cavaillon along the Durance. Cavaillon and L'Isle-sur-la-Sorgue both lie in the low plains of the Rhone valley, while Bonnieux and Cadenet are more in the mountains of the Lubéron. Sarko did best, like Marine, in the Rhone valley cantons of Cavaillon and L'Isle-sur-la-Sorgue, basically lower middle-class and fairly poor areas, with a strong pied-noir influence. On the other hand, "on the other side" of the mountains, the old leftie traditions begin to be seen, though the leftieness found in these parts is, as far as I know, more of the hippie neo-rural/bobos-in-the-countryside phenomenon. Under different boundaries, the left won here in 1988 and 1997 (thanks to the FN in 1997, oc). The UMP regained the seat with 52.2% in 2002. In 2007, Jean-Claude Bouchet, UMP mayor of Cavaillon, triumphed in a "primaire sauvage" against the incumbent, Maurice Giro and took 55.3% in the runoff. In a left-right situation, the redistricting here shores up the right, the left having done best in the cantons of Apt and Pertuis in 2007. Bouchet should win reelection fairly easily. The left is divided because the EELV candidate backed by the PS, a local mayor, is opposed by Michel Fuillet, the CG for L'Isle-sur-la-Sorgue. With the FG on top of that, there's a big risk that the runoff will oppose Bouchet to the FN's Emile Cavasino, in which case he'd win easily. Even in a triangulaire, I foresee him surviving.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

3rd (Carpentras, UMP)*: This seat loses Carpentras-Nord, Sault and Mormoiron. An awful seat, which splits Carpentras (for reasons we'll see later). Sarko won 60.3% here, but in the first round, Panzergirl won 31.5% in this dump, placing first, while Hollande won only 19.1%. She took 35% in the canton of Bedarries, in the Rhone valley, but also 30.5% in Carpentras-Sud. Carpentras has a PS mayor but it is a very conservative place (28.5% for Marine, 59% Sarko). The region is largely a lower middle-class region, with strong Poujadist and individualist traditions. The canton of Bedarries, a wine-making and fruit growing region, contains the same far-right tendencies as those we will wind in Orange. The FN has been very strong in this region for a long time. Between 1993 and 2007, all three runoffs opposed the right - represented since 1988 by Jean-Michel Ferrand - to the FN. In 1997, Ferrand defeated the FN 63-37, in 2002 he won 68%. In 2007, the FN collapsed to 7.8%, allowing the PS (16.4%) to finally make the runoff, which it lost 64.5-35.5 to Ferrand. This will be one of the most high-profile races this year, because it opposes Ferrand, not a particularly strong incumbent but obviously - like all the UMP in this dump - quite willing to play the fascist-lite or "respectable far-right lunatic" game; to Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, the 21-year old granddaughter of Daddy and Panzergirl's niece. She's fairly hot (though she has those weird Le Pen eyes) but it's too bad that she's probably a retarded fascist (the old problem of hot blonde conservatives being nutjobs or fruitcakes). Ferrand also faces a dissident non-FN right-wing candidacy from Astrid Ducros, who seems close to the far-right mayor of Orange, Jacques Bompard. But Daddy's Little Girl's suppleant is Hervé de Lépinau, the vice-president of Bompard's party, the Ligue du Sud (LDS, yeah, you gotta be on LSD to vote for them). This was Hollande's worst constituency out of the five, so there is a big risk that the PS' Catherine Arkilovitch gets eliminated by the first round, especially because the FG candidate had already won 10.7% himself in 1997. I would bet on a Ferrand-Lil Le Pen (so, sh**tte vs. sh**t or cancer vs. AIDS; welcome to the Vaucluse, "sh**thole par excellence") runoff. The PS candidate has said that she would not vote for Ferrand in the runoff, justified by Ferrand's fairly FN-lite stature himself. In such a runoff, while I think lil Le Pen could break 40-45%, I foresee Ferrand winning. A triangulaire with the PS would be very risky as the FN could win.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: lean right

4th (Orange, UMP^): This constituency is unchanged. The main city here is Orange, a big military city, and Bollène. The constituency extends to the mountains, but by far the main population sectors are Orange/Bollène and that general vicinity. In economic and social terms, this is a fairly lower middle-class and fairly poor constituency. There's a strong Poujadist tradition here, with  small and fairly poor individualist landowners who fear immigration (but love to hire them), "declassement" ('proletarianization') and generally opposes taxes or state intervention. Agriculture and related activities such as agrifood remain important, especially in the Rhone valley, a major fruit-growing region with farms employing a fairly large number of migrant workers and farm workers. The ouvriers agricoles in this day and age, less educated and not integrated into urban organized labour, but also facing competition from North African migrant workers, have tended to be one of the FN's strongest demographics. The FN indeed won very strong results here: Marine placed first with 29% against 28.7% for Sarko and a bit over 20% for Hollande, but she won 32% in the canton of Bollène and 31% and 29% respectively in the two cantons of Orange. Sarko won 60% in the runoff. The PS won in 1988, but it might as well have been a century away. Thierry Mariani has held this seat since 1993, but he's retiring this year to run abroad. In 1993 and 1997, he faced triangulaires with the PS and Jacques Bompard (FN) who has been mayor of Orange since 1995. In 2002, he faced Bompard in the runoff, and won with 57.6%. Bompard left the FN in 2005, to join Phil de Villiers' MPF, under whose banner he ran in 2007. He placed a close third with 19.7%, but the PS beat him out for second, and Mariani won 60.2% in the runoff against the PS. Bompard quite the MPF when Phil moved the party closer to the UMP and in 2010 he founded his own party, the Ligue du Sud, a Lega Nord-wannabe far-right/fascist party. Bompard has been, if you have half a brain, a downright horrible mayor with ghastly far-right policies, but he won reelection fairly easily in 2001 and 2008. He is running again this year. He is helped by the division of the right in Mariani's absence: the incumbent suppléant for Mariani, Paul Durieu, is running as a dissident against Bénédicte Martin, the official UMP candidate who is a local and regional councillor. Bompard has a FN candidate, Annie-France Soulet, who is running against him, but he seems to have picked up the endorsement of the FN CG for Carpentras-Nord. The PS candidate, Pierre Meffre, ran in 2007, and is the mayor of Vaison-la-Romaine. There is a chance that the runoff will end up being right-Bompard, but the PS could potentially qualify for a triangulaire. This is very much a pure tossup race, depending on tons of factors: the Durieu vs. Martin primary on the right, the FN's performance against Bompard - does he, presumably, crush them or does the FN do not too shabbily?, the qualification or not of the PS for the runoff and the left's attitude in a runoff which it could potentially win in a fluke but which could very well lead to Bompard's victory. Bompard needs to do well not only in Orange (where he won 39% in 2007 and 36.6% in the regionals, against a stronger FN) but also in the Bollène area, where his wife is mayor, and the whole Rhone valley.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: pure tossup (right-left-far right)

 
5th (Elbridge Gerry Memorial Constituency, notional UMP)+: This new seat is an atrocity which takes in the north of Carpentras in the plains, goes up the Ventoux, takes in the St-Christol plateau, the Monts de Vaucluse, falls in the Apt valley, climbs the Lubéron before ending in Pertuis on the Durance valley. Sarko won 55.4% here, with a contrast between Carpentras-Nord (60.5% Sarko) and Gordes (63%) Sarko and the more leftie inland mountainous cantons, including one (Sault) where Hollande actually won. Carpentras-Nord, much more of a valley canton with the far-right/right-wing lean common to them (30.5% for Marine vs. 24.7% in the constituency), and Gordes, with the Vaucluse valley under the exurban influence of Avignon, contrast with the rural areas which have an old left-wing tradition and strong cooperative movement. The new constituency was clearly created with the aim of making sure the left could not win here unless it was a huge leftie-slide. The UMP favourite is Julien Aubert, of which I don't know much about. Even in the case of a triangulaire, which is possible, the UMP should win here without that much trouble.
Hashpipe's Super-Duper Predictions: right favoured

I'm getting really bored of doing this, and running out of departments which interest me (or I can stop doing entire departments and only selected races, here and there). I will probably post my prediction map soon.

Is Treuille a "good" candidate ?
I don't know him at all and know absolutely nothing about his campaign, I was just wondering. Trying to know how I could have voted on the right, if I were a French abroad in North America... :P

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If you have some courage left, well, Vosges or Cher or even Meuse could be of some interest for you, I think. In the small ones.
If you want to make just one other IdF department, Essonne is the best.

These are just ideas and friendly advices for you, not a demand.
All the more that I haven't read your writings on Nord (I want to have some time when I'm relaxed and quiet; these days, I'm overbooked and have some big familial problems to try to settle - not my close family, of course).

Otherwise, selected constituencies (excluding the 4 departments citec above):
Val-de-Marne 6th
Hauts-de-Seine 10th
Hauts-de-Seine 12th
Yvelines 12th
Isère 10th (a must for you, I think, even if you don't write anything)
Aveyron 3rd
Ardèche 3rd
Jura 3rd
Côte d'Or 2nd
Gironde 8th
Gironde 10th
Val-de-Marne 8th
Hauts-de-Seine 2nd
Hauts-de-Seine 13th
and if you like uncertainty inside the left: Aude 2nd, Haute-Garonne 3rd, Haute-Garonne 9th, Rhône 1st, this last one being a real puzzle for me)

Thanks for Vaucluse and 77. Of course, I'm a bit daring with Bompard's win, Jégo's defeat and even Albarello's and Geoffroy's defeats.
But Seine-et-Marne is pinker and pinker (see the cantonales) and the FN is less strong, but strong enough in exactly the constituencies where it can hurt the right (outer suburbs or rural areas).
And as Vaucluse 4th is indeed a pure tossup (or a pure mess), it could be funny... With more turnout, a quadrangulaire could have well occurred here !
I like your comments on Vaucluse 3rd, with the "real" Marion (a real Le Pen or a real FN woman, BTW... loyal to old traditions of the 70s-80s... :P)

Hashpipe's 100% Incorrect Super-Duper Predictions of sh**tte

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Safe left: 210
Left favoured: 40
Lean left: 28
Tossup - left edge: 43
Left total: 321 (55%)

Tossup - centre edge: 2

Safe right: 89
Right favoured: 67
Lean right: 42
Tossup - right edge: 40
Left total: 238

I'm busier this week at work, but I can use the next 8-9 days to do some profiles on the most interesting races, like those listed by Fab. Or explaining my flawed calls with bullsh**t reasoning and grasping at straws. And yeah, my call on my constituency is a bit subjective wishful thinking.

I was wondering why you say that. It is indeed an interesting constituency in a pretty interesting (but crappy) part of the world, but why is it "a must" for me? :)

Sharif, I've enjoyed your posts on the upcoming election.  One question.  What makes a district a "dump"?  Is it voting for the far right, or is it that those areas are kind of weird, funky areas to start with.  Put another way, if a seat like Carpentras somehow voted for the PS, would it still be a "dump"?

Oh, nothing really special: just another Marleix opus, but with a real uncertainty, with not-so-good candidates from the UMP and the left, a threatening FN, etc.
My phrase was probably a bit excessive.

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So, we agree on Hauts-de-Seine, Aveyron and Lot-et-Garonne !? Amazing ! It gives me some hope.
Sure, on some others, like Drôme, it's not the case. But, of course, I'd be happier if you're eventually right :P

Thank you for all the work you put into this. It is truly fascinating. I have yet to finish reading your latest profiles, but I should pull through this before june 10. As for new ones. If you have the time (and if you think it's worth it) I'd like you to cover some Ile-de-France races, whatever departements there you find interesting. Other than that... Maybe Réunion could be interesting, I don't know ? What about some other foreign constituencies (even if I guess they're hard to predict with certainty) ? What about the rest of Picardie, which seems like there are a lot of close races ? I don't know about Isère, but if Fab says it's interesting it certainly is. ;)

Now, if I have look at your national figures, it turns out that the seats where the left is clearly favored (tossups excluded) are only 278, ie eleven seats less than the absolute majority. Of course it's almost certain that, of the 101 tossup seats, at least 11 will break up for the left. But still, it means that a workable majority is not exactly guaranteed. Anyways, that provides us a significantly different scenario than Fab's (who predicts 339 seats to go left, 18 more than you) which will help sorting things out on election day.

Thank you again. :)

I also have 16 pure tossups in my predictions, where I'm not ready to make a call yet. A few are more UMP vs. FN tossups (like Haute-Marne) but the left will probably win a few of those. In the end, I slant a bit more to the right than Fab, but it's pretty close.

Yeah, we are quite close.
That's probably why I'll be wrong again ;)

Hauts-de-Seine: Hot Seats

5th (Clichy/Levallois-Perret, UMP): Sarko won by the skin of his teeth, with 51% in this constituency. A narrow result which reveals the polarization of this constituency between its two towns: Clichy and Levallois-Perret. Hollande won 66.9% in Clichy, but Sarko took 63.3% in Levallois-Perret. Clichy is a fairly poor and old blue-collar suburb, with a population made up largely of employees or intermediate-grade professionals. Of course, few places in the Petite Couronne are actually working-class, much less in the 92, but Clichy is one of those formerly proletarian hinterland communes transformed into low-income suburbs of employees, immigrants and poorer suburbanites. It obviously has seen gentrification and it isn't some craphole like some places in the 93, but nothing has changed the solidly left-wing physiognomy of the place. On the other hand, Levallois-Perret used to be more working-class - it was a PCF stronghold until the 70s or so - but has been turned into a bourgeois upper middle-class suburban city, which isn't as affluent as Neuilly but certainly a very nicely off suburb. Politically, Levallois-Perret is best known as the stronghold of the Balkany clan, one of the main 'clans' in the eternally amusing world of right-wing politics in the Hauts-de-Seine. Patrick Balkany, a close friend of Sarko, served as mayor between 1983 and 1995, when he was defeated by a chiraquien rival, and again since 2001. Of course, in reality, Balkany and his sidekick (Isabelle Balkany) should be in jail, given that they're criminals. He held this constituency between 1988 and 1997, when in the midst of judicial problems the clan lost the seat to Olivier de Chazeaux, the chiraquien who had won the city hall in 1995. However, in 2002, Balkany retrieved his old seat in a close three-way runoff battle against Gilles Catoire, the PS mayor of Clichy, and the UMP-endorsed incumbent, Olivier de Chazeaux. In 2007, Balkany won 55.3% in the runoff against Catoire. This year's match opposes another Patrick Balkany-Gilles Catoire rematch. The race promises to be very narrow, though perhaps Balkany does have a narrow edge.
I rated this as a 'pure tossup'. I might reclassify it as 'tossup with right edge'.

10th (Issy-les-Moulineaux/Vanves, NC): Hollande won 53.5% in this constituency which includes all of Vanves, Issy-les-Moulineaux and a part of Boulogne-Billancourt. Vanves and Issy are two fairly upper middle-class communities, Vanves has gentrified a lot and is rather bobo these days, though Issy is increasingly bobo as well. Vanves, however, leans to the left, Royal narrowly won it in 2007 and Hollande took 56% this year. Issy-les-Moulineaux generally leans to the right, though Hollande won it this year with 52%. This constituency is now falling under the bobo/young professional middle-classes belt of the southern 92, coinciding with the Paris-Orsay axis of scientific research and educated professional middle-classes. The right's traditional hold on this seat is threatened this year. The seat has been held by André Santini, the slightly corrupt old UDF-NC mayor of Issy-les-Moulineaux and another of the main fixtures in the world of 92 right-wing politics. He won with 55.9% in 2007, a margin slightly narrower than his 1997 margin. He faces the same candidate, Lucile Schmid, but she has since quit the PS to join EELV. She has the PS' endorsement, but there is a dissident candidacy by Laurent Pieuchot, who had been her PS suppleant in 2007. I think Schmid can still prevail over the dissident, and in the runoff, if things work out fine, the trend is heavy against the right here...
I'd stick with my slightly daring 'lean left' call here.

12th (Clamart/Fontenay-aux-Rose, UMP^): Hollande won 53.5% in this seat, whose electoral sociology is quite similar to the 10th, located in that Paris-Orsay axis of professional middle-class suburbs, which are shifting heavily to the left. Hollande won 58.5% in Fontenay-aux-Roses, historically more left-leaning and I believe historically more blue-collar; but also 55% in Chatillon and 53% in Clamart. He only lost in Le Plessis-Robinson proper. Semi-ironically, Le Plessis-Robinson is, of the four communes, the one which is the "least" professional with higher percentages of employees and slightly less bobo in its general political orientations. The right is clearly threatened here, in a seat which, again, it has held since 1988. In 2002, Philippe Pemezec, a slightly distasteful right-winger under the Pasquaist RPF etiquette defeated the UDF-UMP incumbent, Jean-Pierre Foucher, in the first round (27.1% vs. 24.7%) and then won the runoff with 53.6%. In 2007, he won a fairly small 52.9% in the runoff. In 2008, a by-election gave the edge to his successor Jean-Pierre Schosteck after Pemezec was declared ineligible in a campaign finance problem. But only with 51.6%. Pemezec, who is also mayor of Le Plessis-Robinson, is running this time, with Schosteck as his suppleant. The aubryiste Jean-Marc Germain is the PS candidate, while the EELV's candidate, Francine Bavay, had won 46% in the runoff in 2002, as the Green-PS candidate. I don't think the PS' candidate is particularly strong, but the results were already narrow in 2007 (but was it because the then-PS candidate, Kaltenbach, now senator, was mayor of Clamart?) and Hollande won pretty handily here, so I would still bet on the left.

13th (Antony/Sceaux, UMP): Hollande won 52.7% in another bastion of the 92 right which has been held by the right since 1988 but which looks increasingly disputed this year. This constituency includes Châtenay-Malabry, a town marked by the presence of several universities (58% Hollande); Antony, the political base of the UMP incumbent in this constituency, Patrick Devedjian, traditionally a right-leaning town but Hollande narrowly won here with 52%; Sceaux, a very bourgeois town which was Sarko's only victory (but with a small 52%); and Bourg-la-Reine, rather upper middle-class but which handed Hollande a win with 52%. Again, this part of the 92 is in the boboized professional middle-class Paris-Orsay axis, and this constituency in particular has a fairly large student population and an important academia base. The right has historically been dominant, in the figure of Patrick Devedjian, former mayor of Antony and deputy since 1988. Historically a Sarkozyst, the relations between Devedjian and the Sarkozyst clan have soured and he is increasingly seen as one of the 'anti-Sarkozysts' in the wonderful world of UMP shenanigans in the 92. Devedjian won 54.9% in 2007... in 1997 he had won 55.9%. Devedjian faces a tough race but can hope to profit from the left's troubles here. The PS is officially backing Julien Landfried, from the MRC, but the PS section in Bourg-la-Reine is backing Fabien Feuillade, a EELV local councillor in Antony. On top of that, the FG is running the 2002 PS candidate against Devedjian, Pascale Le Néouannic. The division of the left could ruin its hopes of defeating the president of the general council and certainly one of the top figures of the Gangs of New York UMP92. I predicted a tossup with a right edge here, and I'm confident with my call (for now).

Yeah, I agree, Devedjian can make it. The left isn't fantastic in his constituency and his independent mind can save him.

As for Balkany, I'd say it'd be narrow too IF the PS candidate wasn't Catoire: he is too old and it's a bit as a football match between Levallois and Clichy: even if you don't like the team of your city, you support it in the end... At this game, Levallois will back Balkany enough for him to win.

And we agree completely on the 10th and 12th.
Santini will fall, due to the fact he is a dinosaur now and that bobos will back Schmid heartily.

In a preview of what I'll be busy doing after June 10, plus a blog post. Official predictions of who will actually win in order to get a prediction by party. Sooooo....
 
French abroad
These predictions are to be taken with a truckload of salt given that turnout will be 15-25% at most, and that you could have weird things going on...
1st: C. Narassiguin (PS); F. Lefebvre (UMP) defeated :)
2nd: S. Coronado (EELV); don't jump, Fabien.
3rd: A. Lemaire (PS); she's hot
4th: P. Cordery (PS); M-A. Montchamp (UMP) defeated
5th: A. Leroy (PS)
6th: C. Schmid (UMP); l'honneur est sauf pour Johnny!
7th: P-Y. Le Borgn' (PS)
8th: D. Poznanski-Benhamou (PS)
9th: P. Amirshahi (PS)
10th: A. Marsaud (UMP)
11th. T. Mariani (UMP)
 
Prediction: 7 PS, 3 UMP, 1 EELV
 
French Polynesia
1st: E. Fritch (DVD)
2nd: J. Tahuaitu (DVD)
3rd: J-P. Tuaiva (DVD)
 
Prediction: 3 DVD

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In overall terms, this moves my prediction totals up to:

Safe left: 210
Left favoured: 40 > 42
Lean left: 28 > 30
Tossup - left edge: 43
Left total: 321 > 325

Pure tossup: 16

Tossup - centre edge: 2

Safe right: 89 > 85
Right favoured: 67 > 66
Lean right: 42 > 43
Tossup - right edge: 40
Right total: 238 > 234

I won't have time or energy to write any more profiles (two all-day meetings at work this week...), but I can certainly justify my predictions or comment briefly on any constituency.

BREAKING NEWS !

The FN candidate in Morano's constituency is dead.
The new candidate is his former deputy/substitute.

Don't know if and how it will affect the race.
Maybe Morano may benefit from the lil' mess it might entail.
On the other hand, she has some legal suits pending for diffamation...

Predictions altered ? ;)

8/11 foreign seats for the left ? I can't believe this ! :D

Thank you for all your amazing work. All this will make election day far more entertaining to me. :)

This evening, I'll publish the latest (and big) series of polls on my blog and, honestly, it's pretty good for the PS. After all, my predictions may well be right globally speaking :P

I don't know why I read Fredo's latest email, but he's making sure that only dumb people vote for him:

(lol)



What a moron.

Wow, good job! Too bad he's never learnt to read. :P

Again...

Just voted.

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Let's defeat the moron.

Maybe tomorrow :P
I've got so many other things to write this night (always my personal problems :()

I present to you the FG candidates in Neuilly-Puteaux:

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This FN candidate not only looks like a rapist (like most FN candidates do, but that's another matter), he also has a cool ironic name:

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Also, with a candidate like this, you can't say the UMP hasn't tried appealing to the bobos in Paris' 6th constituency:

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Bohbot pour les bobos!

Is he running somewhere in Alsace? ;)


What the hell is this? The bold text reads "I am a candidate in the legislative elections" - what a stirring campaign slogan!

Maginot ran in the Africa/Middle East constituency, perhaps in an attempt by the FN to build a second Maginot line to keep the evil brown people from destroying our Judeo-Christian roots.

On a serious note, I've had the time to do a really mini guide to these elections, including my predictions: http://welections.wordpress.com/2012/06/07/france-legislative-elections-2012-guide/

Actually, the "t" in Bohbot isn't muted ;)

He's some of the former loyal troops of Dominati, a former pro-Algérie française piece of crap who headed the second Corsican clan, after the Tiberi, when the right was dying, in 1995-2001... :(
Dominati was a symbol if these Giscardians coming from the far-right and deep anti-gaullist.

Being, his main achievements, rooting for Paris Saint-Germain and fishing the Paris Marathon 5 times, It seems a fitting slogan.

LOL, where did you find all these guys ? ;D

There, I've posted on my blog all the latest polls and there are MANY of them ! ;)
No big surprise, though Pyrénées-Orientales 1st and Alpes-Maritimes 2nd (Argh) may be interesting.
Meirieu is ahead of Braillard in Lyons :( :( :(

You can find more of them here: http://lolgislatives2012.tumblr.com/
LOLgislatives, justement...

I like this royalist candidate...

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But is she old enough to vote?!

French Royalists are greenies!?

Greenies are already reactionaries, so it's a natural pairing.

Yes, its pretty much my own world view. React against so called progress that's really just destroying nature, traditions, local communities. Its just an uncommon combo. But sympathetic.

I love how the last remaining Royalists in France are a bunch of lefties. How ironic.



Wow... indeed ! :D

Including Marine, I suppose (hey, I can see her sexting a Justin Bieber-type teen)

[fe]male

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"équitable", "bien commun", "justice", "écologie humaine": these aren't leftist concepts but old catholic ones... :D
The society, under the left laïcism, has drifted from equity to equality, from "common good" to "solidarity", from "environmentalism" to "ecologism", from "fairness" to "affirmative action", but the basics were there.
And this young person sums this up quite well !
For some months -years ?- now, since Sarkozy became really a liability for the right (2009-2010), I've asked myself if I shouldn't be a royalist, after all ;D

Sorry, don't use this post already outside the subject to make this thread drift even more :P

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To stay focused: an IFOP poll on Gard 2nd: PS 29.5 / UMP 29.5 / FN 29.5 (yeah, this piece of crap of Gilbert Collard; even Gollnisch is more respectable) in the 1st round.

PS 37 / FN 32 / UMP 31 in the 2nd round :(

Sh***ty FN >:(

That is one hilarious poll.

Great website!

It seems like the PS and UMP got first pick at the eye candy for their posters and the minor parties are left with the remainders: small-time street thugs, anemic-looking old ladies, hapless felons, hoboes, the Great Unwashed and Unshaven...

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Monsieur Le Denmat looks so decidedly anti-fun...

On the French sondage legislative page they have a lot of district polls.  I compiled the following info on seats where the presence of a FN candidate might have an impact, on UMP chances.
6th Seine, UMP victory goes from 10 in a two way, to 6 in a three way.
3rd Var, UMP wins by 18 in a three way.
7th Var, UMP victory margin goes from 24 to 15 from two way to three way.
2nd Pyrennees, a 50-50 split in a two way goes to a PS victory by 4 in a three way.
2nd Alpes, a UMP 10 point win in a two way goes to a PS victory by 1 in three way.
3rd Alpes, a UMP 24 point win goes to 13 in a three way.
4th Alpes, UMP wins a three way by 18.

That poster seems to match fairly well with (the popular perception of) Prince Charles's views.

Thank you, Gaël, for your analysis on Nord :)
I've read it, at last...

()

Slightly revised...
But with one major change: Mélenchon will be beaten by the PS candidate in the first round !
And, eventually, I've tilted towards Jacky Hénin in Calais and I've unfortunately dropped the idea that Douillet will lose in Yvelines :P

I've published on my blog the last national and local polls (Pas-de-Calais 11th and Gard 2nd, among others).

Hope we'll have first results not too late on Sunday :P

So for those who are interested, I won't be liveblogging because it takes lots of effort, but I was planning to do some informal chat in Mibbit on some #legislatives2012 room. I hope at least Antonio and Fab can join me on there for some relaxed fun :)

Last last polls and seats projections on my blog (yes, there are 2 polls I've just discovered today :P)
Plus some graphs for Antonio ;)

Tomorrow, I don't know Hash, because I'm exhausted... Maybe I'll have the courage to go to bed early... I may... I might... ;D

J'y serai ! :)

I'll probably join discussions by 19h30, once Italy-Spain is over. ;) Since we're both opposed to spoilers, I assume the important things begin at 20 ?

Spain will win :p

The important things begin far later, in fact, and on the Internet. 577 elections, you know ;)
Medias will keep repeating some useless "ballottages" without giving you real results, or keep repeating that Emmanuelli or someone is reelected in the first round (what a surprise), or keep repeating their after-vote polls that won't give us any clue for the 2nd round.

You mean we don't get most constituency results by 20h30-21h ? Shame.



Don't be too confident. Italy is able to surprise everybody, for good or for bad. ;)

Once again, in case some morons are tempted, DO NOT POST LEAKED RESULTS.

Or, rather, if you want to... well... post them like this. (quote this post to see how... if it's not already obvious, etc).

why?

oh well, I have already posted them in another thread. I suppose I am a moron.

I don't mind leaked overseas actual results, I meant the useless exit polls which people are so eager to leak.

Ah, ok.
I have cancelled the overseas results in the other thread anyway now.

I agree with Hash. Exit polls are usually useless... and when they're not useless, they're harmful, xD

How long until polls close?

Half an hour ago, most of them. In half an hour or 90 minutes, the rest of them, which is why results will only start coming through round then.

Soooo, yeah, I've opened the #legislatives2012 chatroom on Mibbit. Join me, it's getting lonely.

Whats a ZUS? Is it like a council estate/housing project? (I was reading the description of Roubaix upthread). Great job btw. have you done all circonsriptions now?

It's a "Sensitive Urban Zone", which is a poor place, usually made of towers and/or gigantic concrete buildings, which are filled with poor people, which are in a disrepair state.

A 2000-era slum, in short. None is choosing to live there.

Thanks. Is there anywhere available online census stats by constituency (or other level, commune, department whatever). It would be particularly interesting to see figures for ethnic minority groups, religious groups etc, but I don;t think the French collate that data

Indeed. There is no such thing as ethnicity stats in France. No idea for religion, but, if you want to have a look by yourself, here is the website of France's statistic agency : http://www.insee.fr/en/

Many things uploaded here over the years as well: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59924.75

France has numbers for the general "foreign" population and some data on "immigrant population" which is harder to find.

The Ministry of Housing and Territorial Equality has a wonderful statistical atlas about ZUS and other urban areas, which allows you to quickly look at main demographic stats down to the tract level in large urban areas: http://sig.ville.gouv.fr/

Here's a little map of the "upsets" compared to your predictions :

()

Right upsets : 25 (rated : 17 tossup, 6 lean, 2 favoured)
Left upsets : 13 (rated : 10 tossup, 3 lean)
Far-right upset : 1 (rated lean)


Taking back your numbers, it gives :

Safe left 220/220 = 100%
Left favoured 44/46 = 96%
Lean left 44/51 = 86%

Tossup - left edge 22/39 =56%

Centre favoured 1/1 = 100%
Lean centre 1/1 = 100%

Tossup - right edge 29/39 = 74%

Lean right 51/54 = 94%
Right favoured 59/59 = 100%
Safe right 65/65 = 100%

Lean EXD 1/1 = 100%
Tossup - EXD edge 1/1 = 100%


Left overall 330/356 = 93% (97% excluding tossups)
Right overall 204/217 = 94% (98% excluding tossups)
Others 4/4 = 100%


Tossup 52/79 = 66%
Lean 97/107 = 91%
Favoured 104/106 = 98%
Safe 285/285 = 100%


Overall 538/577 = 93%.

Congrats ! :)

And, to compare with Fab :

()

Right upsets : 28 (+3 : right on Loiret-2 and Essonne-4, wrong on Drôme-2, Isère-7, BR-3 and S&M-7)
Left upsets : 15 (+2 : right on Vienne-4, wrong on Sarthe-1, Hérault-6 and FdE-8)
Far-right upset : 2 (+1 : wrong on Vaucluse-3)

Overall success was 92%. Of your 10 "disagreements", Gaël was right for 8 and Fab for 2. :P

Drôme and Vaucluse are sh***y departements ;D
And Seine-et-Marne too !

FTR, I changed my prediction in Essonne-4 (to a NKM win) on Saturday. But I'm pleased that I did marginally better than Fab. :)

Ah, sorry, I was a bit confused about which of the maps you posted was your final one. :P Please let me know if I made any other mistake.

Go live in Pierrelatte or in Torcy and don't bother me ! ;D :D

Just to finish off, I crossed the list of the upsets with that of close races (won by less than 2 points). Don't know if it might be interesting.

Rated as tossup - close (15) :

Wallis-et-Futuna-AL
Corse-du-Sud-1
Bouches-du-Rhône-11
Vaucluse-5
Vosges-2
Loiret-2
Indre-et-Loire-2
Sarthe-5
Seine-Maritime-7
Oise-2
Saône-et-Loire-4
Doubs-2
Loiret-6
Vienne-4
Calvados-5

Rated as tossup - not close (12) :

Corse-du-Sud-2
Drôme-1
Drôme-3
Haute-Loire-2
Yonne-1
Ille-et-Vilaine-6
Seine-et-Marne-9
Mayotte-2
Saône-et-Loire-1
Vendée-2
Vendée-5
Orne-1

Rated as lean/favored - close (7) :

Aveyron-1
Yvelines-7
Val-d'Oise-2
Val-d'Oise-7
Haute-Garonne-3 (favored)
Yonne-2
Gard-2

Rated as lean/favored - not close (5) :

Territoire-de-Belfort-2
Nord-5
Loire-4 (favored)
Maine-et-Loire-6
Manche-3