Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: afleitch on May 25, 2012, 06:07:05 AM



Title: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on May 25, 2012, 06:07:05 AM
I hope Al won't object to this going up early, however today the 'Yes' campaign launched;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-18162832

One fun facts (or why oil still matters :p) to pad it out.

Scotland's GDP 2010/11 (£millions)

Excluding North Sea Oil - 119,149
Including Per Capita Share (Scotland's entitlement as % of UK) - 121,732
Including Geographical Share - 144,820

From The Grauniad


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: politicus on May 25, 2012, 09:22:55 AM
Best of luck!


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 25, 2012, 01:12:28 PM
It's going to be a ridiculously long campaign, so it makes sense to have a thread early, yeah.

On the subject of the launch, though I might be completely wrong about this is it really such a clever idea to kick off a campaign on an issue like this with glitzy parade in the company of a gaggle of Professional Scotsmen Who Now Live Abroad Because Taxes Are Lower There? I would tend to suggest that appeals to post-imperial Scottish civic nationalism and to specific grievances (whether 'accurate' or not) would be more effective than saccharine platitudes.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on May 25, 2012, 04:20:54 PM
It's going to be a ridiculously long campaign, so it makes sense to have a thread early, yeah.

On the subject of the launch, though I might be completely wrong about this is it really such a clever idea to kick off a campaign on an issue like this with glitzy parade in the company of a gaggle of Professional Scotsmen Who Now Live Abroad Because Taxes Are Lower There? I would tend to suggest that appeals to post-imperial Scottish civic nationalism and to specific grievances (whether 'accurate' or not) would be more effective than saccharine platitudes.

I think for a launch it went off okay. The idea was to ensure that it didn't look like a Salmond-centric event. Patrick Harvie has been pressing the flesh on the national media for example and I expect Margo (health permitting) and Canavan to do likewise. It came off quite fresh and most importantly, neutral. It will always be the easist launch of the two campaigns and it will be interesting to see what a Labour-Tory-Lib Dem campaign launch will look like (because it has to be co-ordinated). It can't be 'London' driven, it can't be too Scottish Establishment either.

If it can get people signed up and get donations rolling in then it's a sucess. It was always going to be crafted as an underdog campaign; it's what Salmond thrives on. If it can be seen as a groundwell of public support, even if it's feigned it will do very well against a party-political-business campaign from the pro-union side.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 25, 2012, 04:48:14 PM
Just seen the coverage of the Yes event on News at 10.

Eugh, smug First Minister is smug.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: CatoMinor on May 26, 2012, 01:32:56 AM

^^^^^

I think you Scottish should center your campaign on British History with emphasis on the imperialism years, that will undoubtedly win the yes campaign votes :P 


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 26, 2012, 01:35:40 AM
Of course, Scotland was no less imperialist than England.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on May 26, 2012, 03:32:31 AM
Of course, Scotland was no less imperialist than England.

Exactly, there is a reason Glasgow was known as the second city of the British empire.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: politicus on May 26, 2012, 03:36:59 AM

^^^^^

I think you Scottish should center your campaign on British History with emphasis on the imperialism years, that will undoubtedly win the yes campaign votes :P 
Scotland mainly joined England in 1707 because the Scottish elite could see, that the English had a good thing going with their emerging world empire and wanted in on it. The Scottish participation in all things imperial was generally much bigger than their share of the British population and the independence movement didnt really develop until the Empire was gone. One interpretation of modern Scottish nationalism is, that once the Empire was gone the Scots lost their main reason to stay in the union.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Free Palestine on May 27, 2012, 03:53:02 PM
So, the referendum is set for 2014, or is this just talk?

I would love to see Scotland go independent and join the Nordosphere.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 27, 2012, 04:36:14 PM
Lookin' good for the Unionists so far. Sock it to Salmond.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 27, 2012, 06:34:30 PM
Yeah, I'm a fan of independent countries actually being...you know...independent.




Waiting for the heads to explode...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 27, 2012, 06:39:59 PM
As someone who would like for Labour to one day win an election again, I oppose this.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 27, 2012, 07:02:28 PM
Yeah, I'm a fan of independent countries actually being...you know...independent.

You clearly understand this issue.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 27, 2012, 07:19:21 PM
If Cameron wants Scotland to stay in the union, he should publicly endorse independence.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on May 28, 2012, 08:45:44 AM
Just to note, I have signed up for the 'Yes' campaign. Long winded explanation to follow...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: politicus on May 28, 2012, 08:51:08 AM
Just to note, I have signed up for the 'Yes' campaign. Long winded explanation to follow...
FF


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: tpfkaw on May 28, 2012, 09:49:27 AM
If I were Cameron I'd go camping out in Scotland, visiting as many places as possible in support of "no," maybe drag Clegg up with me and Thatcher too if she still has enough wits with her.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: politicus on May 28, 2012, 09:53:15 AM
If I were Cameron I'd go camping out in Scotland, visiting as many places as possible in support of "no," maybe drag Clegg up with me and Thatcher too if she still has enough wits with her.
English Tories campaigning would be poison for the Scottish unionist side. And Thatcher was hated in Scotland and still is by many.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: tpfkaw on May 28, 2012, 10:03:51 AM
If I were Cameron I'd go camping out in Scotland, visiting as many places as possible in support of "no," maybe drag Clegg up with me and Thatcher too if she still has enough wits with her.
English Tories campaigning would be poison for the Scottish unionist side. And Thatcher was hated in Scotland and still is by many.

(That's the point...)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 28, 2012, 10:07:36 AM
Most politicians, even most Tory politicians, aren't nearly that sociopathic.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: politicus on May 28, 2012, 10:10:59 AM
If I were Cameron I'd go camping out in Scotland, visiting as many places as possible in support of "no," maybe drag Clegg up with me and Thatcher too if she still has enough wits with her.
English Tories campaigning would be poison for the Scottish unionist side. And Thatcher was hated in Scotland and still is by many.
(That's the point...)
OK, but not that clear since you are a conservative yourself. Using a smiley or three ... afterwards would be helpful when you are being sarcastic about your own side. Otherwise it just looks like ignorance.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: The Mikado on May 28, 2012, 10:12:45 AM
If I were Cameron I'd go camping out in Scotland, visiting as many places as possible in support of "no," maybe drag Clegg up with me and Thatcher too if she still has enough wits with her.
English Tories campaigning would be poison for the Scottish unionist side. And Thatcher was hated in Scotland and still is by many.
(That's the point...)
OK, but not that clear since you are a conservative yourself. Using a smiley or three ... afterwards would be helpful when you are being sarcastic about your own side. Otherwise it just looks like ignorance.

He's not joking...He's saying that the Tories would love for Scotland to secede because it would give them a near-permanent majority in Parliament.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: tpfkaw on May 28, 2012, 10:17:17 AM
If I were Cameron I'd go camping out in Scotland, visiting as many places as possible in support of "no," maybe drag Clegg up with me and Thatcher too if she still has enough wits with her.
English Tories campaigning would be poison for the Scottish unionist side. And Thatcher was hated in Scotland and still is by many.
(That's the point...)
OK, but not that clear since you are a conservative yourself. Using a smiley or three ... afterwards would be helpful when you are being sarcastic about your own side. Otherwise it just looks like ignorance.

He's not joking...He's saying that the Tories would love for Scotland to secede because it would give them a near-permanent majority in Parliament.

Not that they would love that... they should.  (I'm also actually skeptical of all "permanent majority" hypotheses, I suspect English Labour would shift rightwards enough to make it marginal again, but there might be a "permanent majority" for an election or two before they do so.).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: politicus on May 28, 2012, 10:17:58 AM
If I were Cameron I'd go camping out in Scotland, visiting as many places as possible in support of "no," maybe drag Clegg up with me and Thatcher too if she still has enough wits with her.
English Tories campaigning would be poison for the Scottish unionist side. And Thatcher was hated in Scotland and still is by many.
(That's the point...)
OK, but not that clear since you are a conservative yourself. Using a smiley or three ... afterwards would be helpful when you are being sarcastic about your own side. Otherwise it just looks like ignorance.

He's not joking...He's saying that the Tories would love for Scotland to secede because it would give them a near-permanent majority in Parliament.
Thats true. But it shows that you Americans dont really understand British Tories. Supporting unionism is part of their core identity and only a few extremists would want to see Scotland go.
Its still called the Conservative and Unionist Party after all :)

Edit: Okay I see that Wormguy got it. Just Mikados interpretation that was wrong.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 28, 2012, 10:21:09 AM
He's not joking...He's saying that the Tories would love for Scotland to secede because it would give them a near-permanent majority in Parliament.

Except, of course, for the fact that it wouldn't. It's just a delusion of gin-addled Torygraph readers. Labour is more than capable of winning a majority of seats in England and did so as recently as... er... 2005. Hey, even in October 1974 (a narrow victory but still a proper victory) Labour won more seats in England than the Tories.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: tpfkaw on May 28, 2012, 10:27:03 AM
He's not joking...He's saying that the Tories would love for Scotland to secede because it would give them a near-permanent majority in Parliament.

Except, of course, for the fact that it wouldn't. It's just a delusion of gin-addled Torygraph readers. Labour is more than capable of winning a majority of seats in England and did so as recently as... er... 2005. Hey, even in October 1974 (a narrow victory but still a proper victory) Labour won more seats in England than the Tories.

And never in the entire history of the party would the Democrats have lost an election if New York weren't a state.  But you'd have to be a joker if you thought that wouldn't be a massive disadvantage for them.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: politicus on May 28, 2012, 10:27:52 AM
He's not joking...He's saying that the Tories would love for Scotland to secede because it would give them a near-permanent majority in Parliament.

Except, of course, for the fact that it wouldn't. It's just a delusion of gin-addled Torygraph readers. Labour is more than capable of winning a majority of seats in England and did so as recently as... er... 2005. Hey, even in October 1974 (a narrow victory but still a proper victory) Labour won more seats in England than the Tories.
Thats a good point, but Blair was a political phenomenon (back when he was popular) and can be interpreted as the exception, that proves the rule. English Labour would be in trouble without Scotland and
permanent majorities are not unheard of. Bavarian CSU is a good example where the SPD was unable to break their hold on power for decades despite being centrist.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on May 28, 2012, 10:32:20 AM
Its worth noting as well ,that for all their lack of seats in Westminster there are actually quite a lot of influential Scottish Tories parachuted into safe English seats like Rifkind, Fox, Gove etc ( Even Cameron has got quite a bit of Scottish heritage) so Scottish Tories have a disproportional influence. These sort of people as well as some idealistic unionists (some politicians do actually have beliefs) would be for a no vote even if it does give the Tories an electoral advantage.

Although the impact of Scotland leaving on politics at least is overrated for the reasons that Sibboleth mentioned, and I also agree with wormyguy that a permanent majority wouldn't exist anyway because Labour would be able to adapt to it.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 28, 2012, 10:45:36 AM
And never in the entire history of the party would the Democrats have lost an election if New York weren't a state.  But you'd have to be a joker if you thought that wouldn't be a massive disadvantage for them.

So what you're suggesting is that the Tories ought (if they knew what was good for them) support breaking up the UK (and lose all kind of important strategic and economic resources) in order to secure would would be, in practice, a comparatively minor electoral advantage? Makes perfect sense, though only after a few glasses of gin and a long stare at the attractive woman who's picture always graces the front of the paper.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 28, 2012, 10:50:47 AM
Thats a good point, but Blair was a political phenomenon (back when he was popular) and can be interpreted as the exception, that proves the rule.

Had no idea that Blair led the Labour Party in the 1970s (or 1960s when, of course, Labour won an outright majority of English seats in 1966).

Quote
English Labour would be in trouble without Scotland and permanent majorities are not unheard of. Bavarian CSU is a good example where the SPD was unable to break their hold on power for decades despite being centrist.

Whatever England is, it isn't Bavaria...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: tpfkaw on May 28, 2012, 10:55:39 AM
And never in the entire history of the party would the Democrats have lost an election if New York weren't a state.  But you'd have to be a joker if you thought that wouldn't be a massive disadvantage for them.

So what you're suggesting is that the Tories ought (if they knew what was good for them) support breaking up the UK (and lose all kind of important strategic and economic resources) in order to secure would would be, in practice, a comparatively minor electoral advantage? Makes perfect sense, though only after a few glasses of gin and a long stare at the attractive woman who's picture always graces the front of the paper.

Well I imagine the Scots wouldn't be so vindictive as to impose border controls or tariffs on their more southerly cousins or vice-versa, so the economic consequences would be fairly minor.  (What's a "strategic resource," anyway?  Something that makes it easier to fight wars?  I'm all for breaking up all those...).  The oil will be gone in c. 20 years or so anyway.  I'm also biased in favor of smaller countries, which as a general rule tend to be rather better-run.  Also, the small advantage gets larger if Wales or even possibly the North follow.  Main disadvantage is that the nicest-looking national flag gets way uglier (maybe the Scots will give up some random island to keep St. Andrew's cross in there, but that's doubtful).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: The Mikado on May 28, 2012, 11:01:05 AM
He's not joking...He's saying that the Tories would love for Scotland to secede because it would give them a near-permanent majority in Parliament.

Except, of course, for the fact that it wouldn't. It's just a delusion of gin-addled Torygraph readers. Labour is more than capable of winning a majority of seats in England and did so as recently as... er... 2005. Hey, even in October 1974 (a narrow victory but still a proper victory) Labour won more seats in England than the Tories.

I'm aware of that.  I was interpreting Wormy's statement.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on May 28, 2012, 11:01:59 AM
He's not joking...He's saying that the Tories would love for Scotland to secede because it would give them a near-permanent majority in Parliament.

Except, of course, for the fact that it wouldn't. It's just a delusion of gin-addled Torygraph readers. Labour is more than capable of winning a majority of seats in England and did so as recently as... er... 2005. Hey, even in October 1974 (a narrow victory but still a proper victory) Labour won more seats in England than the Tories.

I think that independence would be good for Scottish Tories. I can’t see any other way for ‘conservatism’ to survive otherwise. Though perhaps, given what conservatism in Scotland used to be it’s no bad thing that it’s not in a position of strength.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on May 28, 2012, 11:24:11 AM
And never in the entire history of the party would the Democrats have lost an election if New York weren't a state.  But you'd have to be a joker if you thought that wouldn't be a massive disadvantage for them.

So what you're suggesting is that the Tories ought (if they knew what was good for them) support breaking up the UK (and lose all kind of important strategic and economic resources) in order to secure would would be, in practice, a comparatively minor electoral advantage? Makes perfect sense, though only after a few glasses of gin and a long stare at the attractive woman who's picture always graces the front of the paper.

Well I imagine the Scots wouldn't be so vindictive as to impose border controls or tariffs on their more southerly cousins or vice-versa, so the economic consequences would be fairly minor.  (What's a "strategic resource," anyway?  Something that makes it easier to fight wars?  I'm all for breaking up all those...).  The oil will be gone in c. 20 years or so anyway.  I'm also biased in favor of smaller countries, which as a general rule tend to be rather better-run.  Also, the small advantage gets larger if Wales or even possibly the North follow.  Main disadvantage is that the nicest-looking national flag gets way uglier (maybe the Scots will give up some random island to keep St. Andrew's cross in there, but that's doubtful).

I'd be surprised if the rest of the UK didn't just keep the union flag, not just because it would be made much uglier, but also for various reasons the rump of the UK will be trying to show that not much has changed (e.g UN Security Council) so will keep the flag the same.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: YL on May 28, 2012, 12:22:01 PM
Well I imagine the Scots wouldn't be so vindictive as to impose border controls or tariffs on their more southerly cousins or vice-versa, so the economic consequences would be fairly minor.  (What's a "strategic resource," anyway?  Something that makes it easier to fight wars?  I'm all for breaking up all those...).  The oil will be gone in c. 20 years or so anyway.  I'm also biased in favor of smaller countries, which as a general rule tend to be rather better-run.  Also, the small advantage gets larger if Wales or even possibly the North follow.  Main disadvantage is that the nicest-looking national flag gets way uglier (maybe the Scots will give up some random island to keep St. Andrew's cross in there, but that's doubtful).

I'd be surprised if the rest of the UK didn't just keep the union flag, not just because it would be made much uglier, but also for various reasons the rump of the UK will be trying to show that not much has changed (e.g UN Security Council) so will keep the flag the same.

I suppose we could always argue that the St. Andrew's cross represents Berwick on Tweed...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: YL on May 28, 2012, 12:26:16 PM
He's not joking...He's saying that the Tories would love for Scotland to secede because it would give them a near-permanent majority in Parliament.

Except, of course, for the fact that it wouldn't. It's just a delusion of gin-addled Torygraph readers. Labour is more than capable of winning a majority of seats in England and did so as recently as... er... 2005. Hey, even in October 1974 (a narrow victory but still a proper victory) Labour won more seats in England than the Tories.
Thats a good point, but Blair was a political phenomenon (back when he was popular) and can be interpreted as the exception, that proves the rule. English Labour would be in trouble without Scotland and
permanent majorities are not unheard of. Bavarian CSU is a good example where the SPD was unable to break their hold on power for decades despite being centrist.

In addition to what Al has said, Blair wasn't that popular any more by 2005.

It would make a difference, but a small one compared with what a lot of people seem to think.  There just aren't enough Scottish seats, and they're not that monolithically Labour.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: politicus on May 28, 2012, 05:02:44 PM
Thats a good point, but Blair was a political phenomenon (back when he was popular) and can be interpreted as the exception, that proves the rule.

Had no idea that Blair led the Labour Party in the 1970s (or 1960s when, of course, Labour won an outright majority of English seats in 1966).
In your usual attempt to put people down you are rather missing the point Comrade Too-Clever-by-Half. All Social Democratic parties in Europe are much weaker than they were in the 60s and 70s so elections from back then arent really relevant when discussing future scenarios.

Quote
English Labour would be in trouble without Scotland and permanent majorities are not unheard of. Bavarian CSU is a good example where the SPD was unable to break their hold on power for decades despite being centrist.
Its just an example of a party system with a long term dominant Conservative party. But Southern England is actually almost as Conservative on economics as Bavaria, so its not that far fetched.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Leftbehind on May 28, 2012, 09:50:06 PM
Well neither is the Tory party as strong as it used to be. It's done wonders in alienating itself in the North and Wales, and the Tories weren't anywhere near as divisive in the past as they are now.

I don't think it's all that relevant comparing the weakening of European social democrats, as most aren't in a FPTP system like the UK, and they can vote elsewhere without knowing they'll be letting the Tories in.

I don't accept the 'Tory England / Labour move Right/Blairite to win there' argument, received wisdom at its worst.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on May 29, 2012, 01:50:29 AM
How many national parliaments have actually had a permanent majority for one party or another? I know sub national legislatures like the Bavarian state house, West Virginia, most of the deep south etc have had one party rule but I don't think that is really the same thing.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 29, 2012, 04:47:09 AM
In your usual attempt to put people down you are rather missing the point Comrade Too-Clever-by-Half. All Social Democratic parties in Europe are much weaker than they were in the 60s and 70s so elections from back then arent really relevant when discussing future scenarios.

It is regrettably true that the Labour Party is generically weaker than it was in the 1960s and 1970s, but then (and less regrettably) the Tories are also generically weaker. And the reality of the electoral system (and the distribution of votes) means that what matters is the direct competition between the two parties.

Quote
Its just an example of a party system with a long term dominant Conservative party. But Southern England is actually almost as Conservative on economics as Bavaria, so its not that far fetched.

Southern England is mostly right-wing, yeah. But Northern England is one of the great traditional strongholds of labour and Labour, and the Midlands (when averaged out) tends to be highly volatile. A Scotlandless UK would also include Wales (of course) which always returns a majority Labour delegation to Westminster. So unless the plan is to find some way of disenfranchising everywhere north of the Severn-Wash line...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 29, 2012, 03:15:20 PM
 Main disadvantage is that the nicest-looking national flag gets way uglier (maybe the Scots will give up some random island to keep St. Andrew's cross in there, but that's doubtful).

You have got to be kidding.  It's an ugly and awkward flag.  About the only thing good that can be said about it is that it is not an insipid tricolor.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on May 29, 2012, 03:21:06 PM
And never in the entire history of the party would the Democrats have lost an election if New York weren't a state.  But you'd have to be a joker if you thought that wouldn't be a massive disadvantage for them.

So what you're suggesting is that the Tories ought (if they knew what was good for them) support breaking up the UK (and lose all kind of important strategic and economic resources) in order to secure would would be, in practice, a comparatively minor electoral advantage? Makes perfect sense, though only after a few glasses of gin and a long stare at the attractive woman who's picture always graces the front of the paper.

Well I imagine the Scots wouldn't be so vindictive as to impose border controls or tariffs on their more southerly cousins or vice-versa, so the economic consequences would be fairly minor.  (What's a "strategic resource," anyway?  Something that makes it easier to fight wars?  I'm all for breaking up all those...).  The oil will be gone in c. 20 years or so anyway.  I'm also biased in favor of smaller countries, which as a general rule tend to be rather better-run.  Also, the small advantage gets larger if Wales or even possibly the North follow.  Main disadvantage is that the nicest-looking national flag gets way uglier (maybe the Scots will give up some random island to keep St. Andrew's cross in there, but that's doubtful).

I'd be surprised if the rest of the UK didn't just keep the union flag, not just because it would be made much uglier, but also for various reasons the rump of the UK will be trying to show that not much has changed (e.g UN Security Council) so will keep the flag the same.
I must insist that Scotland (or Wales, once it chooses Independence ;D ) gets the Security Council seat.



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 30, 2012, 10:47:25 AM
I just realized that unless the Lib Dems do something really crazy this is going to happen before the next UK election. Hmmm that could shake things up, wonder what the situation would be if there was a majority for Labour but the majority disappeared if Scotland left.

And I'd oppose this.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on May 30, 2012, 11:26:31 AM
I just realized that unless the Lib Dems do something really crazy this is going to happen before the next UK election. Hmmm that could shake things up, wonder what the situation would be if there was a majority for Labour but the majority disappeared if Scotland left.

And I'd oppose this.

If yes won Scotland wouldn't leave straight away because the exact terms won't have been decided, so there would be a grace period of sorts. But in the long term there would have to be a new election called because Labour couldn't govern and the Conservatives taking power after having "lost" the last election would make them deeply unpopular. I'd guess that if Labour did have a slim majority they would call a new election once the negotiations  had finished. Not that any of that scenario is likely though.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: freefair on May 30, 2012, 11:38:34 AM
What would happen to Scottish MP's/MEP's/Councillors in English/Welsh seats (and Vica Versa!)?
I know Irish people can stand for election in the UK, would it remain like that? Would Scots living in RestofUK be elidgible for citizenship?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on May 30, 2012, 12:32:06 PM
What would happen to Scottish MP's/MEP's/Councillors in English/Welsh seats (and Vica Versa!)?
I know Irish people can stand for election in the UK, would it remain like that? Would Scots living in RestofUK be elidgible for citizenship?

No doubt they would. I've not heard anything to the contrary. Citizenship, IIRC would be open for those living in Scotland with existing UK citizenship, which makes sense. Those who were born in Scotland but live elsewhere would be able to apply.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: mileslunn on May 30, 2012, 08:08:50 PM
What would happen to Scottish MP's/MEP's/Councillors in English/Welsh seats (and Vica Versa!)?
I know Irish people can stand for election in the UK, would it remain like that? Would Scots living in RestofUK be elidgible for citizenship?

No doubt they would. I've not heard anything to the contrary. Citizenship, IIRC would be open for those living in Scotland with existing UK citizenship, which makes sense. Those who were born in Scotland but live elsewhere would be able to apply.

You only have to be a commonwealth or EU citizen to vote in local, Welsh, Northern Irish, and European elections and Scotland would almost certainly remain an EU member.  Likewise if you are a commonwealth citizen you can vote in British elections so as long as Scotland was a commonwealth member one could still vote.  I know as a Canadian I would be able to vote if I lived in Britain.  Likewise while Scotland can set its own voting rules and own nationality rules, EU law requires that all EU Citizens be permitted to vote in both European and local elections, although not required for national ones.  They also might just set a minimum residency period too as I believe in Holland and Denmark one can vote in local elections regardless of citizenship if they have resided in the country for a certain number of years.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Leftbehind on May 30, 2012, 08:44:44 PM
Wait, Scotland becomes independent and we're still lumped with their exported Tories? FFS. :P



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Phony Moderate on June 28, 2012, 09:17:19 PM
Just a thought - if Labour were still in power at Westminster, this situation would be....somewhat more interesting, wouldn't it?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 28, 2012, 10:50:25 PM
Just a thought - if Labour were still in power at Westminster, this situation would be....somewhat more interesting, wouldn't it?
Wow.  With Gordon Brown as PM...holy sh*t.  I guess they'd probably be a lot less likely to vote yes because of the chaos that would ensue if the Prime Minister of the UK was suddenly no longer a British citizen or a member of the British parliament, and Harriet Harperson would have to become acting PM.  Sheesh. 


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on July 30, 2012, 03:39:05 AM
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-labour-dismisses-rebellion-1-2439472

"LABOUR chiefs say a rebellion among its grassroots members in favour of independence lacks “any real support” within party ranks.

A website has been launched called Labour for Independence, which is urging Scottish party leader Johann Lamont to allow members a vote on the constitutional question, with a view to shifting the party’s stance in favour of leaving the UK in the 2014 referendum.

Senior Labour figures say the website, launched by party member Allan Grogan, has attracted plentiful backing from SNP supporters. But the party
insists that members are free to bring policy suggestions before Labour conference."



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on July 30, 2012, 07:59:35 AM
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-labour-dismisses-rebellion-1-2439472

"LABOUR chiefs say a rebellion among its grassroots members in favour of independence lacks “any real support” within party ranks.

A website has been launched called Labour for Independence, which is urging Scottish party leader Johann Lamont to allow members a vote on the constitutional question, with a view to shifting the party’s stance in favour of leaving the UK in the 2014 referendum.

Senior Labour figures say the website, launched by party member Allan Grogan, has attracted plentiful backing from SNP supporters. But the party
insists that members are free to bring policy suggestions before Labour conference."



Idiots.

Division and separation is so in line with democratic socialism. ::)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Dereich on July 30, 2012, 10:18:16 AM
Lets say Scotland achieves Independence: What would the political situation look like? Who would be the party of the right? What reason would the SNP still have for existing and would they or Labour be the main center-left party?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Leftbehind on July 30, 2012, 01:29:28 PM
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-labour-dismisses-rebellion-1-2439472

"LABOUR chiefs say a rebellion among its grassroots members in favour of independence lacks “any real support” within party ranks.

A website has been launched called Labour for Independence, which is urging Scottish party leader Johann Lamont to allow members a vote on the constitutional question, with a view to shifting the party’s stance in favour of leaving the UK in the 2014 referendum.

Senior Labour figures say the website, launched by party member Allan Grogan, has attracted plentiful backing from SNP supporters. But the party
insists that members are free to bring policy suggestions before Labour conference."



Idiots.

Division and separation is so in line with democratic socialism. ::)

To be fair, I'd consider nationalism to be more compatible with democratic socialism than whole swathes of currently accepted views within the party; although obviously still ranking among them in the 'entirely wrong direction' section.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on July 30, 2012, 02:21:05 PM
Lets say Scotland achieves Independence: What would the political situation look like? Who would be the (main) party of the right?
SNP, duh, just as today.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Zuza on July 30, 2012, 08:25:14 PM
Today SNP usually considered left (social democratic) party.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: CatoMinor on July 30, 2012, 08:34:05 PM
Lets say Scotland achieves Independence: What would the political situation look like? Who would be the (main) party of the right?
SNP, duh, just as today.
I thought apart from the Independence parts on their platform they were social democrats.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on July 30, 2012, 10:42:26 PM
To me, they are vaguely centrist, aiming a non-controversial government and aiming good management of the country.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Peter the Lefty on July 31, 2012, 10:15:09 AM
Lets say Scotland achieves Independence: What would the political situation look like? Who would be the party of the right? What reason would the SNP still have for existing and would they or Labour be the main center-left party?
Hmm...good question.  Seems to me like it may be like the pre-2011 Fianna Fail/Fine Gael situation in Ireland, where one dominant party has only some competition from an ideologically very similar party, with the SNP being like FF and Scottish Labour being like FG.  Labour might have to join forces with the Torries to beat the SNP. 


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Velasco on July 31, 2012, 12:18:50 PM
As a 'national' party I suppose that SNP would tend to occupy the central place of Scottish politics which doesn't mean necessarily a 'centrist' ideology. SNP is vaguely a center-left party with its main focus on Scottish independence and/or sovereignty, am I wrong?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on July 31, 2012, 03:52:04 PM
Lets say Scotland achieves Independence: What would the political situation look like? Who would be the (main) party of the right?
SNP, duh, just as today.
I thought apart from the Independence parts on their platform they were social democrats.
Are we talking about platforms or voter bases? This is a psephology forum. The SNP is the major rightwing party in Scotland just like Labour is the major leftwing one.
It's true though that the right is fissured enough (over class and national identity issues) that it's hard to see the SNP ever swallowing up the entirety of the remaining Tory and LD vote, and that there are also very many people in Scotland who would not ever vote Tory or LD but may vote either SNP or Labour - and have been voting SNP in Scottish and Labour in Westminster elections of late, due in part to the state of Scottish Labour.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Peter the Lefty on August 05, 2012, 01:32:24 PM
Wow, this is news.  I always got the impression that the SNP were left-of-Labour. 


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on August 05, 2012, 02:44:36 PM
Lets say Scotland achieves Independence: What would the political situation look like? Who would be the (main) party of the right?
SNP, duh, just as today.
I thought apart from the Independence parts on their platform they were social democrats.
Are we talking about platforms or voter bases? This is a psephology forum. The SNP is the major rightwing party in Scotland just like Labour is the major leftwing one.
It's true though that the right is fissured enough (over class and national identity issues) that it's hard to see the SNP ever swallowing up the entirety of the remaining Tory and LD vote, and that there are also very many people in Scotland who would not ever vote Tory or LD but may vote either SNP or Labour - and have been voting SNP in Scottish and Labour in Westminster elections of late, due in part to the state of Scottish Labour.

The SNP is right-wing?

Only in the sense that they hoover up many Tories and LibDems as the main non-Labour party, but no way are they right-wing.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Leftbehind on August 05, 2012, 03:00:23 PM
New Labour's move rightwards to such an extent complicated everything (you have the same questions over the Liberal Democrats nationally), and allowed centrist/liberals to be seen as the left opposition.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: politicus on August 05, 2012, 03:09:47 PM
Wow, this is news.  I always got the impression that the SNP were left-of-Labour.  
If you look at their actual policies on most issues, that is indeed the case.
Their voter base is however quite fragmented and in some regions like the North East they are mainly people who would otherwise vote Conservative ("Tartan Tories").


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on August 05, 2012, 03:15:41 PM
Wow, this is news.  I always got the impression that the SNP were left-of-Labour. 

As the main not-Labour party, some people which hate Labour vote for them, so that includes some right-wingers, even if that makes no sense ideologically.

You also have the right-wing and left-wing independantists which put that issue over policies (that's the core vote, in fact, logically).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on August 05, 2012, 06:47:26 PM
It's worth noting that the SNP only got through 2007-2011 with the support (not quite confidence and supply, but close enough) of the Greens, the Tories and the LibDems...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on August 06, 2012, 04:50:13 AM
Wow, this is news.  I always got the impression that the SNP were left-of-Labour. 
New Labour's move rightwards to such an extent complicated everything (you have the same questions over the Liberal Democrats nationally), and allowed centrist/liberals to be seen as the left opposition.
Though only by privileged airheads* and - much more understandably - people focussing on Blair's disastrous foreign policy course. Which would naturally include a lot of foreign spectators.

*yeah, that's what I tend to think anybody so focussed on social liberalism issues as to completely ignore economics is. Not that Blair's economic course was actually leftist, of course, but the LDs certainly never overtook Labour on the left on that front. :)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on August 06, 2012, 10:49:01 AM
Wow, this is news.  I always got the impression that the SNP were left-of-Labour. 
New Labour's move rightwards to such an extent complicated everything (you have the same questions over the Liberal Democrats nationally), and allowed centrist/liberals to be seen as the left opposition.
Though only by privileged airheads* and - much more understandably - people focussing on Blair's disastrous foreign policy course. Which would naturally include a lot of foreign spectators.

*yeah, that's what I tend to think anybody so focussed on social liberalism issues as to completely ignore economics is. Not that Blair's economic course was actually leftist, of course, but the LDs certainly never overtook Labour on the left on that front. :)

Yes, 2005-2010 LibDems generally were students from Tory families who were too ashamed to realise they were rightists. Yes.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Leftbehind on August 06, 2012, 03:08:42 PM
That sounds a little too indulgent in self-delusion, tbh. I'd sooner class students voting Liberal as those New Labour alienated, than Tories in disguise.

Wow, this is news.  I always got the impression that the SNP were left-of-Labour.  
New Labour's move rightwards to such an extent complicated everything (you have the same questions over the Liberal Democrats nationally), and allowed centrist/liberals to be seen as the left opposition.
Though only by privileged airheads* and - much more understandably - people focussing on Blair's disastrous foreign policy course. Which would naturally include a lot of foreign spectators.

*yeah, that's what I tend to think anybody so focussed on social liberalism issues as to completely ignore economics is. Not that Blair's economic course was actually leftist, of course, but the LDs certainly never overtook Labour on the left on that front. :)

Well when there's nothing immediately discernible on economics (New Labour after all, was just market-friendly social liberalism, with the claim to the latter becoming less credible as they went on) it then becomes about nothing other than social liberalism. After the first term (ie after they'd passed the minimum wage, and the Liberals had stopped opposing it) there was nothing there for leftists to decidedly vote Labour on* - however, there was plenty there to vote against. So choices of higher public spending became one of the Liberals matching Labour's, paid for with less PFI and no Iraq, and more recently choices of less cuts with Liberals matching Labour's plans but with a "mansion tax" and nuclear disarmament etc - ie you can vote for social liberalism and as much social democracy as Labour were proposing.  Especially when these were articulated by Charles Kennedy - far more of a convincing social democrat than Blair.  

It's the same with the SNP, people have seen them extend universal benefits (university, prescriptions) and dragging the other parties into supporting them, far more than they've seen them talk of the "Irish model", so it's not a case for either of them attracting voters from simply social liberalism. I'd be similarly denigrating if it were the case (despite being a social liberal myself, I've really grown to detest Liberals who'll champion a government for it even when they're slashing and burning - thankfully they're a minority)  .

*Can remember the 2001 general election coverage highlighted a few polls they'd commissioned showing Lib Dem voters more in favour of nationalisations and higher taxes for public spending than Labour voters.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on August 06, 2012, 03:23:30 PM
That sounds a little too indulgent in self-delusion, tbh. I'd sooner class students voting Liberal as those New Labour alienated, than Tories in disguise.

I was mostly joking.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Leftbehind on August 06, 2012, 03:44:31 PM
Objection withdrawn. ;)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on August 07, 2012, 11:38:36 AM
That sounds a little too indulgent in self-delusion, tbh. I'd sooner class students voting Liberal as those New Labour alienated, than Tories in disguise.

I was mostly joking.
It looks more a case of mistaking the terms "Middle Class" and "Tories". Typical British mistake. :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 07, 2012, 01:08:30 PM
I think the issue was more that was possible for middle class people with minority-left (trolling is fun!) views to convince themselves that the LibDems were to the left of the government, and that doing so was safe because it wasn't as though the Tories were going to win a majority, etc. Poking under the surface things always looked different; the LibDems didn't then (and don't now) really care about social policy (for example) beyond chucking a few sweeties around and making a series of very vague promises (which in practice meant a rather conservative stance), and were actually pretty enthusiastic about further economic deregulation (that great sage of our times and champion of manufacturing St. Vince of Cable was quite the advocate for abolishing what was then called the DTI. Which is interesting in retrospect). The record of LibDem-run local authorities was also strikingly conservative, and this at a time when local authorities had considerably more financial wriggle-room than at present.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: patrick1 on August 07, 2012, 01:19:34 PM
Quick ?, do you think the Olympics has had any influence on this at all?  Is the Union Jack or more feelings of "Britishness" gaining any traction among some?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on August 15, 2012, 10:56:00 AM
Quick ?, do you think the Olympics has had any influence on this at all?  Is the Union Jack or more feelings of "Britishness" gaining any traction among some?


It's kind of late, but I've only just seen the relevant poll: http://www.scotsman.com/the-scotsman/scottish-independence-rivals-quick-off-blocks-to-claim-olympic-gains-1-2464425

Basically it will have no effect whatsoever, especially because the referendum is another 2 years away, by which time everyone will have forgotten about the olympics. But I think it does show that even if Scotland won the world cup, or Britain swept every medal at the athletic world championships there would be little effect on the vote, because sport doesn''t really matter when it comes to politics in the UK.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on August 15, 2012, 11:09:21 AM
Quick ?, do you think the Olympics has had any influence on this at all?  Is the Union Jack or more feelings of "Britishness" gaining any traction among some?


It's kind of late, but I've only just seen the relevant poll: http://www.scotsman.com/the-scotsman/scottish-independence-rivals-quick-off-blocks-to-claim-olympic-gains-1-2464425

Basically it will have no effect whatsoever, especially because the referendum is another 2 years away, by which time everyone will have forgotten about the olympics. But I think it does show that even if Scotland won the world cup, or Britain swept every medal at the athletic world championships there would be little effect on the vote, because sport doesn''t really matter when it comes to politics in the UK.

This. Though it is worth noting that the vote will be held shortly after the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow so it would be interesting then to compare and contrast.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Јas on September 26, 2012, 12:49:11 AM
The Orange Order (NI) want to vote; and Salmond concedes the devo-max option.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/0926/1224324424243.html



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Leftbehind on September 26, 2012, 12:56:38 PM
Not much of a concession! The only winnable option for his party, and it's certainly a win (more control, but without having to fart around with the ins and outs of the implications of independence) and I've no doubt they'll get it. Even if they didn't, the SNP aren't going anywhere whilst the main three unionist parties try and outdo each other in who can offer the most repelling platform (it's absolutely stunning to see Lamont's "solution" to Labour's fortunes).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on October 15, 2012, 07:46:13 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-19942638

The deal is struck. Let the shouting begin.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on October 15, 2012, 08:09:14 AM
Well, that seems okay.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 15, 2012, 10:16:28 AM
Would a 50% vote be sufficient for independence?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on October 15, 2012, 01:43:46 PM
Would a 50% vote be sufficient for independence?
You know, I've been trying to find the answer to that. What they actually agreed is...

Quote
The governments have agreed that the referendum should:

:: have a clear legal base;

:: be legislated for by the Scottish Parliament:

:: be conducted so as to command the confidence of parliaments, government and people; and

:: deliver a fair test and decisive expression of the views of people in Scotland and a result that everyone will respect.

The governments have agreed to promote an Order in Council under Section 30 of the Scotland Act 1998 (...)

It will then be for the Scottish Government to promote legislation in the Scottish Parliament for a referendum on independence. (...) The referendum legislation will set out:

:: the date of the referendum;

:: the franchise;

:: the wording of the question;

:: rules on campaign financing; and

:: other rules for the conduct of the referendum.
So in principle, that would be up to the Scottish Parliament to decide. Though the language in points three and four of the first list makes me wonder whether there's some unwritten part of the agreement on that issue.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Leftbehind on October 15, 2012, 01:47:06 PM
Interesting that there's no devo-max option; I felt sure there would be. Can't help but think the nationalists have no chance on a straight independence question.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: countydurhamboy on October 15, 2012, 02:53:24 PM
The last poll I saw had support for independence at 27% I think even for Salmond this is a bridge to far... However you wonder what effect Glasgow's Commonwealth Games might have as Scotland competes separately.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Hnv1 on October 21, 2012, 08:50:16 AM
What are Rangers supporters going to do with all the union jacks in Ibrox now?

Now this referendum is very vauge, what sort of independence are we talking about? Will the queen still be the de jure head of state as in canada? Is a 50.01% sufficient for independence? What of British military installations (nuclear submarines port) and other British government/royal assests in Scotland? And other numerous questions. As a Scottish friend of mind told me "we don't know what we're voting for and no cares to explain"


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Gary J on October 21, 2012, 09:41:02 AM
A yes vote for independence, would give the Scottish government a mandate to negotiate the terms for disunion. I would have thought the financial terms would be as contentious as those negotiated at the time of the Treaty of Union.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: doktorb on October 21, 2012, 03:57:54 PM
And what would the remaining United Kingdom be called afterwards, that's what I want to know.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 21, 2012, 05:27:03 PM
And what would the remaining United Kingdom be called afterwards, that's what I want to know.

The United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on October 22, 2012, 03:53:18 AM
"United Kingdom of South Britain and Northeast Ulster". ;D


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: politicus on October 25, 2012, 05:41:03 PM
And what would the remaining United Kingdom be called afterwards, that's what I want to know.

The United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland?
Not logical. Wales is a principality and Ulster is only an earldom.
Since the territory of England and Wales is (almost) identical to the Roman province of Britannia they could just call it Britannia (the six Ulster counties would be too small a part of the new state to matter much).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: DC Al Fine on October 25, 2012, 08:29:55 PM
Great Britain works fine.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Leftbehind on October 26, 2012, 01:25:49 AM
Alongside a united Ireland, presumably.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on October 26, 2012, 07:36:38 AM
If Scotland does get independence, then historical titles will be the last thing on the rest of the UK's mind. I'd assume Westminster will be trying desperately to preserve some sort of continuity, so I expect them to plump for the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. For the same reason I don't think we'll be seeing any changes to the flag.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: doktorb on October 26, 2012, 11:38:36 AM
()


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on October 27, 2012, 04:51:52 AM
And what would the remaining United Kingdom be called afterwards, that's what I want to know.

The United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland?
Not logical. Wales is a principality and Ulster is only an earldom.
Since the territory of England and Wales is (almost) identical to the Roman province of Britannia they could just call it Britannia (the six Ulster counties would be too small a part of the new state to matter much).

They would be a larger part of the new state than the current one.

In all seriousness, the name would almost certainly not be changed. Though I guess they should drop the "Great".


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: politicus on October 28, 2012, 01:10:25 PM
And what would the remaining United Kingdom be called afterwards, that's what I want to know.

The United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland?
Not logical. Wales is a principality and Ulster is only an earldom.
Since the territory of England and Wales is (almost) identical to the Roman province of Britannia they could just call it Britannia (the six Ulster counties would be too small a part of the new state to matter much).

They would be a larger part of the new state than the current one.

In all seriousness, the name would almost certainly not be changed. Though I guess they should drop the "Great".

Thats obviously true. By small I meant insignificant. A UK without Scotland would essentially be "Greater England" and in that sense NI would be even more insignificant/irrelevant than it is today.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 06, 2013, 11:24:48 AM
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-oil-benefit-overstated-says-danny-alexander-1-2720955

'THE financial benefit of oil to an independent Scotland is being overstated, according to a senior UK Government minister.

Relying on a comparatively good annual figure to show that oil could make people £500 richer is “misleading”, Chief Treasury Secretary Danny Alexander said.

Taking an average over the 12 years of devolution wipes that figure out - but would leave Scots just £1 out of pocket each year instead, he said.'

---

Yes, you heard it. A whole £1 a year worse off. May as well not hold the vote now :(


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: ingemann on January 06, 2013, 11:45:29 AM
Am I the only one seeing a degree of genius in this whole vote, by putting the vote in 2014 they ensure the government in London will play nice to Scotland, and not attempt to limit the local autonomy. So even if they lose they will have gotten several years of peace from Loondon, and the crisis may be less bad in 2014, so the risk that London will cut inn Scottish autonomy or budgets afterward will be a lot smaller.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 06, 2013, 11:52:23 AM
Am I the only one seeing a degree of genius in this whole vote, by putting the vote in 2014 they ensure the government in London will play nice to Scotland, and not attempt to limit the local autonomy. So even if they lose they will have gotten several years of peace from Loondon, and the crisis may be less bad in 2014, so the risk that London will cut inn Scottish autonomy or budgets afterward will be a lot smaller.

It's a win win result. Even if the Yes vote can only muster 40-45% that's still a large minority. The result is increased autonomy for Scotland regardless of the outcome.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: DC Al Fine on January 06, 2013, 02:37:56 PM
Am I the only one seeing a degree of genius in this whole vote, by putting the vote in 2014 they ensure the government in London will play nice to Scotland, and not attempt to limit the local autonomy. So even if they lose they will have gotten several years of peace from Loondon, and the crisis may be less bad in 2014, so the risk that London will cut inn Scottish autonomy or budgets afterward will be a lot smaller.

It's a win win result. Even if the Yes vote can only muster 40-45% that's still a large minority. The result is increased autonomy for Scotland regardless of the outcome.

Separatism is playing with fire when it comes to autonomy. Quebecois nationalists were very successful playing this game until the Tories figured out how to win majorities without them. Now their appeals fall on deaf ears.

As someone who is sympathetic to the Scots cause, I suggest they make their increased autonomy concessions count.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Siloch on January 10, 2013, 01:38:17 PM
Scottish Independence is pointless!

01. Keep the pound
02. Keep the Queen
03. Keep the EU (so open border with England)

So we have the same head of state as England, the same currency as England, we keep an open border with England but we lose a huge say in the world, by breaking up the UK.

Who in their right mind would vote for that, seriously?

I'm from Scotland, I'm 18, so I will be 19 or 20 depending on the month and I will vote no on pointless independence.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Gary J on January 10, 2013, 06:47:07 PM
Siloch's interesting contribution seems to suggest that an independent Scotland would re-create the 1603-1707 situation. Scottish ministers would, in theory, lead an independent country but in practice that independence would be severely constrained by English influence.

Before the union the common monarch, resident in England, was far more likely to be guided by his English ministers and English interests than the Scottish ones. King James VI said something about finding it easier to govern Scotland with a pen from Whitehall, than a sword in Scotland.

During the union, Scottish politicians have found it easier to influence the United Kingdom than their pre-union predecessors had to be taken into account in London. A fair number of Prime Ministers have been Scots or at least represented Scottish seats in Parliament, considering the relative sizes of the two countries. In the last century and this; A.J. Balfour was Scottish (representing an English seat), Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman (both Scottish and sitting for a Scottish constituency), H.H. Asquith (English sitting for a Scottish seat), Bonar Law (a Canadian born Scot who represented a Scottish seat for part of his career), Ramsay Macdonald (born in Scotland), Winston Churchill (was MP for Dundee during part of his long career), Harold Macmillan (Englishman of Scottish descent), Sir Alec Douglas-Home (Scottish aristocrat representing a Scottish seat), Tony Blair (born and educated in Scotland), Gordon Brown (a Scot and Scottish MP) and David Cameron (very English but undeniably of Scottish descent).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Famous Mortimer on January 10, 2013, 07:41:36 PM
If Scotland became independent, would people living in Scotland be able to opt to keep their UK citizenship and move to England? Or would they have no choice and automatically become Scottish?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: doktorb on January 10, 2013, 11:25:10 PM
They'll move to CET and screw up the rail timetables


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: CatoMinor on January 11, 2013, 12:34:16 AM
Why is support for independence dropping? :( the last poll I saw it at only 30% support


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Frodo on January 11, 2013, 12:36:56 AM
There is still a year to go, but since I am not seeing how support for independence will rise to competitive levels, I will go ahead and make the prediction that independence will fail at the ballot-box.  I think Scotland will be fortunate if it gains even more autonomy over its own future than it has now.    


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on January 11, 2013, 08:14:09 AM
Scottish Independence is pointless!

01. Keep the pound
02. Keep the Queen
03. Keep the EU (so open border with England)

So we have the same head of state as England, the same currency as England, we keep an open border with England but we lose a huge say in the world, by breaking up the UK.

Who in their right mind would vote for that, seriously?

I'm from Scotland, I'm 18, so I will be 19 or 20 depending on the month and I will vote no on pointless independence.
Firstly, welcome to the forum! It's good to see another scot on the board, by my count you're our third.

Also, you've definitely got a point about the pound, but the monarchy is neither here nor there, because it's got no real power anymore. In fact, were Scotland to become independent I'm sure we would go down the  Australia and Canada route, where we are completely separate but share a head of state.

They'll move to CET and screw up the rail timetables

The Scots or the English?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on January 11, 2013, 08:44:14 AM
Also, I don't see how *Scotland* could possibly have any less say in the world than it does now, where it has no foreign policy and is "represented" internationally by a foreign (heh, bear with me here :) ) government that is itself almost completely isolated in Europe. You (Scotland that is) would have more say in the world than at current if you allied with Iran.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 11, 2013, 08:48:13 AM
If Scotland became independent, would people living in Scotland be able to opt to keep their UK citizenship and move to England? Or would they have no choice and automatically become Scottish?

There haven't been any negotiations yet as no one has any mandate for such negotiations, but I'd guess a similar solution to what was sorted out with Ireland.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Frodo on January 27, 2013, 10:00:51 AM
This isn't looking good for the separatists at all:

Support for Scottish independence falls to new low (http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/01/support-scottish-independence-falls-new-low)

One referendum that is guaranteed to take place in is that on Scottish independence in 2014 and the "no" campaign (or, as it prefers to be known, Better Together) is in an ever-stronger position. The 2012 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey (http://www.scotcen.org.uk/media/1021490/ssa12briefing.pdf), the results of which were released today, shows that support for independence has fallen to just 23 per cent, down from 32 per cent last year and the joint-lowest level since devolution.

Most notable is that backing for independence is now at a lower level than it was when the SNP came to power in 2007, a reminder that many voters support the party in spite of its support for secession, rather than because of it. Before Alex Salmond became First Minister, support for independence averaged 30 per cent, since then it has averaged 26 per cent.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on January 27, 2013, 06:52:05 PM
If Britain leaves the EU, would that increase or decrease support for Scottish independence?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Frodo on February 18, 2013, 05:42:31 PM
From nearly a week ago, but I only just found this:

Scottish Independence Gains Support With Help of Young (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-13/scottish-independence-gains-support-with-help-of-young.html)

By Peter Woodifield - Feb 13, 2013 8:44 AM ET

Support among voters in Scotland for becoming an independent country is rising, with a majority of young voters now ready to quit the U.K., according to a poll published today (http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3130/Support-for-independence-bounces-back.aspx).

Backing for independence rose to 34 percent of respondents, while those in favor of retaining the status quo fell to 55 percent, according to the Ipsos MORI survey published in today’s London-based Times newspaper. The 21-percentage-point gap compares with 28 points in October and 20 points in June, based on reports from the same pollster.

“Our latest poll shows a boost in support for those campaigning for Scottish independence, who will take some encouragement from these findings,” Mark Diffley, director at Ipsos MORI Scotland, said on the pollster’s website. “Having said that, support for independence is behind where it was a year ago.”


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 19, 2013, 10:31:29 AM
From nearly a week ago, but I only just found this:

Scottish Independence Gains Support With Help of Young (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-13/scottish-independence-gains-support-with-help-of-young.html)

By Peter Woodifield - Feb 13, 2013 8:44 AM ET

Support among voters in Scotland for becoming an independent country is rising, with a majority of young voters now ready to quit the U.K., according to a poll published today (http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3130/Support-for-independence-bounces-back.aspx).

Backing for independence rose to 34 percent of respondents, while those in favor of retaining the status quo fell to 55 percent, according to the Ipsos MORI survey published in today’s London-based Times newspaper. The 21-percentage-point gap compares with 28 points in October and 20 points in June, based on reports from the same pollster.

“Our latest poll shows a boost in support for those campaigning for Scottish independence, who will take some encouragement from these findings,” Mark Diffley, director at Ipsos MORI Scotland, said on the pollster’s website. “Having said that, support for independence is behind where it was a year ago.”

Good job we don't vote then (See the AV referendum).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Siloch on March 04, 2013, 04:10:20 PM
Scotland would need to reapply to join the EU as a new country, says Latvia's foreign minister. Latvia will be leading the EU at that time. It would be interesting though, would the rest of the UK need to reapply as well.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 04, 2013, 04:13:04 PM
Scotland would need to reapply to join the EU as a new country, says Latvia's foreign minister. Latvia will be leading the EU at that time. It would be interesting though, would the rest of the UK need to reapply as well.

I can only think of an example where a border was dissolved, not a new one established (the GDR).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: LastVoter on March 05, 2013, 04:42:29 AM
Am I the only one seeing a degree of genius in this whole vote, by putting the vote in 2014 they ensure the government in London will play nice to Scotland, and not attempt to limit the local autonomy. So even if they lose they will have gotten several years of peace from Loondon, and the crisis may be less bad in 2014, so the risk that London will cut inn Scottish autonomy or budgets afterward will be a lot smaller.

It's a win win result. Even if the Yes vote can only muster 40-45% that's still a large minority. The result is increased autonomy for Scotland regardless of the outcome.

Separatism is playing with fire when it comes to autonomy. Quebecois nationalists were very successful playing this game until the Tories figured out how to win majorities without them. Now their appeals fall on deaf ears.

As someone who is sympathetic to the Scots cause, I suggest they make their increased autonomy concessions count.

I think what actually happened here is that Dippers took advantage of Liberals shooting themselves in the foot over and over again.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on March 05, 2013, 05:29:59 AM
Scotland would need to reapply to join the EU as a new country, says Latvia's foreign minister. Latvia will be leading the EU at that time. It would be interesting though, would the rest of the UK need to reapply as well.

I can only think of an example where a border was dissolved, not a new one established (the GDR).

All sides need to be honest on this issue. The truth of the matter is no one knows the legal position because it has never happened before. In 1707 Scotland did not become part of England; the two nations joined to become a United Kingdom of Great Britain. In 1801, Ireland formally joined that United Kingdom, so when Ireland left then it left the UK, but the UK existed prior to Ireland and continued to exist legally. However if Scotland leaves the UK having been one of the two nations that founded it, does it mean that what is left of the UK (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) is a continuing state or will two separate nations be formed? The ‘Kingdom of England’ in 1707 included Wales but also included what is now Northern Ireland because that was part the area that made up the Kingdom of Ireland as proclaimed in the Crown of Ireland Act of 1542 which after the Tudor conquest of Ireland made a united island that at that time was in a personal and political union with the Kingdom of England. So all territory currently considered part of the UK was held by either the Kingdom of England with Ireland in personal union, or by the Kingdom of Scotland. It could be argued that if Scotland leaves this union then what it leaves behind is not Great Britain, which was only formed by the Act of Union but the Kingdom of England and the territories constitutionally bound to it.

This means that the ‘rump UK’ would not the same country that was created in 1707 and therefore has no rights to claim to be a successor state to it. It has no right to retain its Security Council seat and no right to continued membership of the European Union. However you could argue for the contrary, that in 1707 Scotland was technically not dissolved. The Kingdom remained. It’s laws, passed by the Parliament of Scotland remained. It’s legal system (Scots Law) remained. It’s established Church remained.  All that happened is that all legal decisions were made at Westminster in common agreement with England (and later Ireland) and Scotland sent representatives to the new Commons and the new Lords. Some laws had to be tailored or enacted specifically to suit Scots Law. This occurred in such a way that Scotland ceased to be an independent nation and this arrangement was modified upon the re-establishment of the Scottish Parliament in 1999. If Scotland chooses to withdraw from that arrangement in all matters of law then it does so in manner which means that constitutionally Scotland is now an independent state. This therefore means that all treaties and laws etc that the United Kingdom entered into still applies and the ‘rump UK’ is a successor state. Question is where would that leave Scotland?

In terms of precedent, when Czechoslovakia split, neither new nation claimed to be a successor state so there was no problem. Russia claimed successor status to the Soviet Union because it had the ‘agreement’ of the 11 member nations of the C.I.S and this was accepted. Belarus and Ukraine were technically independent members of the UN already and the Baltic states had gained independence before the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Furthermore excepting these five nations, the other former states of the Soviet Union were established within the Soviet Union by the Soviet Union from the old Russian SSR which was a continuation of the Russian Empire. So whether the remainder of the UK is considered a successor state depends entirely on what the states themselves decide to do. However it’s worth noting that in Yugoslavia, the UN refused in resolution 777 to recognised Serbia and Montenegro’s claims to be the successor state and the UN said that the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia ceased to exist.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Gary J on March 05, 2013, 10:54:36 AM
Looking at the wording of the Treaty of Union and the Acts of Union which gave legal effect to the treaty, the Kingdoms of England and Scotland were combined into a united kingdom of Great Britain. Whilst England and Scotland continued to exist, the two former Kingdoms had been ended by being merged into an incorporative union.

The Great British united kingdom, created by the Anglo-Scottish union, was itself subsumed into the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland from 1 January 1801. After that point there were three parties to the union, so the withdrawal of just one would not automatically end the union itself.

Subsequent developments have created a United Kingdom which now includes the four nations of England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.

None of these components of the union is currently a sovereign state, but they all have somewhat different institutional relationships to the United Kingdom and to a certain extent different laws. I do not see why one nation withdrawing from the relationship would end it between the other parts, any more than the departure of 26 Irish counties to become the Irish Free State (now the Republic of Ireland) affected the remainder of the union.

If Scotland now decided to withdraw from the United Kingdom, the remaining three components of the modern United Kingdom would clearly be the successor state.

Some may argue that the union between England and Scotland is more fundamental to the United Kingdom than the other links, but I do not see the legal basis for such a claim today rather than in the 1707-1800 period.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 17, 2013, 04:37:58 PM
Tavish Scott wants home rule for Shetland if Scotland leaves the UK. :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: politicus on March 17, 2013, 04:49:05 PM
Tavish Scott wants home rule for Shetland if Scotland leaves the UK. :P
Why do you consider that a bad thing? It would be natural for both the Orkney Islands and Shetland to have home rule since they are distinct communities. In the case of Shetland its quite far from mainland Scotland as well.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 17, 2013, 04:53:12 PM
Tavish Scott wants home rule for Shetland if Scotland leaves the UK. :P
Why do you consider that a bad thing? It would be natural for both the Orkney Islands and Shetland to have home rule since they are distinct communities. In the case of Shetland its quite far from mainland Scotland as well.

Nooo, I just thought it quite ironic. This referendum's just becoming more of a joke.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 20, 2013, 09:55:08 AM
Miliband at ScotsLab conference: "Let the Tories try to divide our society, let the SNP try to divide our country."

One hypothetical I'm thinking about though for is Yes wins, how does Labour divide itself up? Does it have a Sinn Fein kinda thing with the same party existing on both sides of the border?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Siloch on April 23, 2013, 05:13:24 PM
I have a funny feeling, Scotland will vote for independence. Scots are very patriotic, posh English politicians telling us we can't do it, will make us want to do it, especially if 16 and 17 year olds get the vote.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on April 24, 2013, 04:57:36 AM
Even if the vote fails, having 40+% of the electorate saying they want to be independent is a major headache for Westminster. Part of the reason I’m voting Yes is because the No’s haven’t outlined what further powers they would give Scotland if the vote fails. I know what independence is and what it means but I don’t know what happens afterwards if we vote No on the pretence that we get more powers if we do. I have a feeling we will be left wanting. Either way, the SNP will likely win again in 2016 anyway so a further vote down the line is a possibility.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on April 24, 2013, 06:08:42 AM

That's a very opptimistic estimate.



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: fondue_knight on April 24, 2013, 04:37:39 PM
I know what independence is and what it means

Really? So what currency are you guys going to be using? Still planning on sharing the pound sterling with us?

Will you remain in the EU? Or is the EU still refusing?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Kitteh on April 24, 2013, 04:52:14 PM
I'm sad to see support for independence so low. When I was 13/14 I first heard about the scottish independence issue and I became very strongly for it because of the fact that I was veru much into "claiming" my scottish ancestry at that point. Like most white Americans my actual ethnic background is all over Europe, but Scottish is the most clearly traceable part and my last name is clearly scottish. Also like most white Americans, I was very interested in finding an ethnic identity that wasn't "white american".

Anyway, I guess I still support it now, partly because the idea of a more progressive independent Scotland and partly just for no real reason other than "it'd be cool/interesting".



Also, I don't think the comparison to Quebec is a good one. Its become a common meme now but the situations are so vastly different.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 24, 2013, 05:11:43 PM
Indeed, the Québécois were actually oppressed once.

;D


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 24, 2013, 10:36:34 PM
Also, I don't think the comparison to Quebec is a good one. Its become a common meme now but the situations are so vastly different.

Indeed, I can actually understand the Quebecois accent :D


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on April 24, 2013, 10:37:48 PM
Also, I don't think the comparison to Quebec is a good one. Its become a common meme now but the situations are so vastly different.

Indeed, I can actually understand the Quebecois accent :D

Our accent isn't so bad (well, except in a few very rural areas, but even I have difficulties, so...).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Siloch on April 25, 2013, 05:47:54 PM
FREEEEEEEEEEEEEDOM !

Nobody did it yet so I thought I would :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 25, 2013, 05:48:44 PM
Do that again and you're banned from the forum.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on April 26, 2013, 11:40:17 AM
Indeed, the Québécois were actually oppressed once.

;D
As opposed to Scotland which was oppressed twice?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Siloch on May 03, 2013, 09:44:01 AM
Do that again and you're banned from the forum.

FREEDOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on May 03, 2013, 04:23:24 PM
Do that again and you're banned from the forum.

FREEDOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wouldn't antagonize Al in that way if I were you...
Besides, as a Scottish person, shouldn't you detest that horrible exscuse of utter historicly-incorrect Mel Gibson narcissistic garbage? :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Siloch on May 04, 2013, 04:36:48 AM
Do that again and you're banned from the forum.

FREEDOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wouldn't antagonize Al in that way if I were you...
Besides, as a Scottish person, shouldn't you detest that horrible exscuse of utter historicly-incorrect Mel Gibson narcissistic garbage? :P

He bans me, he bans me. It's not a big deal lol. Braveheart is a good film, inaccurate yes but it is well liked in Scotland. If I get banned for saying FREEEEDOM then it says more about him than me. Mel Gibson films are awesome - Braveheart, Mad Max, Lethal Weapon, Patriot, Apocalpto etc all great.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on May 04, 2013, 02:40:26 PM
He can't actually ban you, of course.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on May 04, 2013, 03:35:59 PM
Please don't make me ashamed to be Scottish on this board :) It's bad enough having to share...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 18, 2013, 03:40:03 AM
One year to go.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: fondue_knight on September 23, 2013, 03:19:18 PM
Do you know what currency you'll be using yet or whether you'll be allowed to remain in the EU?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 23, 2013, 03:41:47 PM
Do you know what currency you'll be using yet or whether you'll be allowed to remain in the EU?

The No campaign would have you think that we won't even know what plug sockets we would use ;D Scotland would use the Pound because that was our currency before the union (and was always based against the English pound) The chances are we would use it again and it would initially operate similar to how the Irish Pound did until 1979. Whether we would join the EU? Who knows.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: fondue_knight on September 25, 2013, 04:56:13 PM
It all seems as though nobody knows what currency Scotland would use in fact. I wanted to link to an article stating this, but it seems I don't have enough posts.

It's alright if you support independence, but to say that you can know what independence means is quite risible.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on September 26, 2013, 03:28:43 AM
I'm sure you can find such articles, but the claim is (for the short run) factually incorrect.

Whether the Irish situation pre 79 is desirable for Scotland... that is quite another question.

As to the EU - joining won't take a 'membership process' a la East Europe (since Scottish law obviously already fulfills the criteria), and the concept of some nonbritish government vetoing Scottish membership - also raised in the English press, of course - is exceedingly farfetched.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Frodo on November 26, 2013, 11:16:06 PM
Now we have a clearer picture of what an independent Scotland would look like:

Independent Scotland would keep the pound and the queen, says Salmond (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/26/us-scotland-independence-salmond-idUSBRE9AP0CL20131126)

BY BELINDA GOLDSMITH
GLASGOW, Scotland
Tue Nov 26, 2013


(Reuters) - An independent Scotland would keep the British pound, the queen and remain in the European Union but have its own defense force and collect its own taxes, First Minister Alex Salmond said on Tuesday.

In a 670-page blueprint (http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/11/9348) aimed at convincing Scots they should vote on September 18 next year to end a 306-year union with England, Salmond said there would be no need to increase taxes if Scotland broke away.

With separatists lagging in opinion polls, his Scottish National Party is hoping the blueprint will win over the many skeptics, answering questions his Scottish National Party (SNP) has been accused of dodging.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Famous Mortimer on November 26, 2013, 11:24:17 PM
Ugh.

Either be independent or don't.

All this half way crap is annoying.

If you're going to be independent, have your own damn head of state. Have your own money.

If you're going to be part of the UK, no more devolution of powers. It's already devolved to a ridiculous extent as it is.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on November 27, 2013, 01:22:12 AM
Ugh.

Either be independent or don't.

All this half way crap is annoying.

If you're going to be independent, have your own damn head of state. Have your own money.

If you're going to be part of the UK, no more devolution of powers. It's already devolved to a ridiculous extent as it is.

It's not as if Scotland can force England to give up Elizabeth.  Of course if Charles is on the throne by then, both might be trying to stick the other with him.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Citizen Hats on November 27, 2013, 03:08:04 AM
No need. The Queen is queen of sixteen different independent countries


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on November 27, 2013, 07:04:29 AM
Ugh.

Either be independent or don't.

All this half way crap is annoying.

If you're going to be independent, have your own damn head of state. Have your own money.

If you're going to be part of the UK, no more devolution of powers. It's already devolved to a ridiculous extent as it is.


Spurious dethronement of the Stewarts aside, the monarch is the monarch of Scotland as both the Kingdoms of Scotland and England share the same lineage. It makes sense to retain that status quo.

Secondly, the Pound has been the currency of Scotland since the 12th Century. In 1603 it was set at a consistant exchange rate with the Pound Sterling and consumed within the Pound Sterling by the Act of Union in 1707. Retaining the currency tied with the Sterling makes perfect ecnomic sense immediately post independence. The Irish Pound was fixed to the Sterling from 1928 to 1979. No one is saying that the Scottish Pound would last that long given the inevitability of the Euro but it's not a stupid idea.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Beezer on November 27, 2013, 09:55:34 AM
About half of the white paper appears to be an SNP-manifesto educating the public about the things they'do if Scotland became independent. BTW, are there any polls/surveys on EU-support among the different nations of the UK? I suppose if the EU and the euro were a more attractive option, winning the referendum would be a tad easier especially if the electorate had a more pro-European slant.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 31, 2014, 07:17:54 AM
Two nuggets of news today.

First is a belated posting of the ICM poll suggesting a 53-47 No vote, with the closest poll yet for the Yes campaign and the second is the suggestion by the Director General of the European Commission suggests that an independent Scotland could become an EU member in as little as eighteen months;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25965703

Things are certainly getting interesting again :)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Zanas on January 31, 2014, 07:21:23 AM
How reliable would you say this 53-47 poll is ? I only recall having seen large No majorities as of yet. Is there something in particular, in your opinion, that may have shifted so much of the public, or is this just a fluke ?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 31, 2014, 08:42:33 AM
It’s an ICM poll. They are the gold standard in UK polling, though as these things go you are only as good as your last victory. It was one of the first firms to pick up the shift to the ‘No’ vote in the AV referendum (‘No’ of course won handsomely). That vote is a reminder that people’s attitudes can shift the closer they get to polling day. At the same time the SNP won a wave election; remember at that start of that campaign, Labour were comfortably ahead. One flaw in the ICM poll, but is not exclusive to them, is a need to upweight 18-24 year old voters in the sample. There are also legal difficulties in obtaining the personal information of 16-17 year olds who will be allowed to vote. Most polling companies that have been polling the referendum so far such as TNS BRMB are not exactly reputational and are reluctant to channel the people it polls into making a ‘forced choice’ between Yes and No. The TNS BRMB in December for example had the Yes 14% behind but that was based on 33% not saying how they would vote. The other problem is that despite the actual polling question being known; ‘Should Scotland be an independent country’ not all pollsters actually ask that question. As far as I can recall only Panelbase and ICM ask it, without exposition. For the record Panelbase are the most ‘pro Yes’ of the pollsters but underestimated the SNP back in 2011, so it’s record is questionable.

What we should see, with forced choice is what people expect to be the case anyway; a core 45% No, a core 40% Yes and people inbetween.

In terms of who finds independence more palatable it appears to be younger voters however they are defined. That goes for voters under 65 in general. Voters over 65 are opposed, but are not out of reach. The same is true of women who tend to be more against than in favour. Less well off voters, those in the ‘C2DE’ classification are in favour. What is noticeable is that according to ICM, of the 2011 voters for the SNP, 83-84% will vote yes. That bloc includes the casual SNP voters it picked up from the other parties in it’s 2011 wave election. Of the rump Labour vote, 26% will vote yes as will 26% of the Lib Dems. If that figures moves to just 30% or so, then Yes would be ahead.

There are two big issues that will test both sides. Firstly the economic recovery; one would expect that to impact the Yes cause, but if that recovery is linked to a Tory recovery in the polls (which may be happening) then what effect will an increased likelihood of a Tory victory have on the polls? Secondly, the European Elections means the whoring of UKIP for a few months in the summer. Given the massive gulf in voting intention, will UKIP’s bluster, which goes down like a lead balloon in Scotland serve to heighten the social and political differences between Scotland and the rest of the UK?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on January 31, 2014, 08:58:28 AM
I didn't follow this very closely, but would high turnout help the Independence side more or the pro-UK side ? Who is more motivated to vote ?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: YL on January 31, 2014, 01:03:38 PM
How reliable would you say this 53-47 poll is ? I only recall having seen large No majorities as of yet. Is there something in particular, in your opinion, that may have shifted so much of the public, or is this just a fluke ?

My initial reaction is that it may well be a fluke, but to see whether there's any support for it from future polls.

There are definite concerns about the weighting.  As afleitch says, they undersampled 18-24 year olds and so heavily upweighted them, something which increases margin of error.  It appears that in this poll the sample of young voters (especially, but not only, among 18-24 year olds) was much more pro-independence than in previous polls; in fact among 18-24 year olds support for independence appeared to be up 33%!

See John Curtice's article at http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/01/icm-poll-shows-biggest-swing-yet/


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Lurker on January 31, 2014, 03:49:44 PM
Seems very much like an outlier. Will be interesting to see whether future polls confirm this trend.

There looks to be a shortage of polls on this referendum; according to that site, the last one was relased almost two months ago.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Frodo on February 06, 2014, 09:07:39 PM
Let's suppose that independence-proponents lose narrowly in the upcoming September referendum -how much of an effect will the results have on the 2015 Scottish parliamentary elections?  Is the SNP safe regardless?   


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: YL on February 07, 2014, 02:34:54 AM
Let's suppose that independence-proponents lose narrowly in the upcoming September referendum -how much of an effect will the results have on the 2015 Scottish parliamentary elections?  Is the SNP safe regardless?   

It's hard to say, but my feeling is that a narrow loss would not be seen as a bad result for them, so there wouldn't be much effect.  A thrashing (75-25 or something like that) might be a different matter, but doesn't seem very likely.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: CatoMinor on February 07, 2014, 02:54:46 AM
Let's suppose that independence-proponents lose narrowly in the upcoming September referendum -how much of an effect will the results have on the 2015 Scottish parliamentary elections?  Is the SNP safe regardless?   

Unless I am mistaken, the SNP won their victories despite support for independence being less than huge in the past, so I don't see a narrow loss really having that much of an impact. Considering polling over the past year, the loss being narrow could be spun as the Yes vote over performing expectations and momentum being on the side of independence. A landslide loss though would obviously be embarrassing and bad for the SNP. 


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 07, 2014, 11:02:00 AM
It would depend entirely on how the party were to react internally to such a defeat. I won't pretend to understand the workings of the SNP as an organisation, so can basically just note that the current duumvirate of sorts seem to have things very ordered at present, but (on 'tuther hand) that you don't have to go back that far to find very bloody factional disputes.

Regardless, I think we can be fairly sure that Salmond is not going to blame a referendum defeat on Jews and darkies, unlike a certain Premier of Quebec.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: warandwar on February 08, 2014, 09:41:56 AM
Let's suppose that independence-proponents lose narrowly in the upcoming September referendum -how much of an effect will the results have on the 2015 Scottish parliamentary elections?  Is the SNP safe regardless?   

It's hard to say, but my feeling is that a narrow loss would not be seen as a bad result for them, so there wouldn't be much effect.  A thrashing (75-25 or something like that) might be a different matter, but doesn't seem very likely.

A narrow loss would be fine, but they would run into the problem that the PQ has where they can't ever have a referendum unless they're confident they'll win as a decrease in the Yes% would be seen as a massive failure.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on February 08, 2014, 03:49:25 PM
Let's suppose that independence-proponents lose narrowly in the upcoming September referendum -how much of an effect will the results have on the 2015 Scottish parliamentary elections?  Is the SNP safe regardless?   

It's hard to say, but my feeling is that a narrow loss would not be seen as a bad result for them, so there wouldn't be much effect.  A thrashing (75-25 or something like that) might be a different matter, but doesn't seem very likely.

A narrow loss would be fine, but they would run into the problem that the PQ has where they can't ever have a referendum unless they're confident they'll win as a decrease in the Yes% would be seen as a massive failure.

In Quebec, any Yes result over 40% wouldn't be seen as a massive failure. I suppose it would be similar in Scotland.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: warandwar on February 08, 2014, 11:05:33 PM
Let's suppose that independence-proponents lose narrowly in the upcoming September referendum -how much of an effect will the results have on the 2015 Scottish parliamentary elections?  Is the SNP safe regardless?   

It's hard to say, but my feeling is that a narrow loss would not be seen as a bad result for them, so there wouldn't be much effect.  A thrashing (75-25 or something like that) might be a different matter, but doesn't seem very likely.

A narrow loss would be fine, but they would run into the problem that the PQ has where they can't ever have a referendum unless they're confident they'll win as a decrease in the Yes% would be seen as a massive failure.

In Quebec, any Yes result over 40% wouldn't be seen as a massive failure. I suppose it would be similar in Scotland.

I mean it would be a failure for the narrative of the PQ.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Frodo on February 13, 2014, 06:23:35 PM
The UK government has kindly informed Scotland that if they do in fact do the deed, they will lose the pound sterling (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/uk-to-scotland-walk-away-lose-the-pound/2014/02/13/f9406a4e-94cf-11e3-9e13-770265cf4962_story.html?hpid=z1), and will have to make do with an alternative -perhaps adopting the euro.  


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: CatoMinor on February 14, 2014, 03:05:18 AM
The UK government has kindly informed Scotland that if they do in fact do the deed, they will lose the pound sterling (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/uk-to-scotland-walk-away-lose-the-pound/2014/02/13/f9406a4e-94cf-11e3-9e13-770265cf4962_story.html?hpid=z1), and will have to make do with an alternative -perhaps adopting the euro.  
Would Scotland really have a problem with joining the Eurozone though? I was under the impression that they were more favorable towards the EU/Eurozone than the rest of the UK.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: YL on February 14, 2014, 04:06:36 AM
Not having a currency union wouldn't stop an independent Scotland using the pound unilaterally.  Montenegro isn't in the Eurozone but uses the Euro.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 14, 2014, 10:50:43 AM
The UK government has kindly informed Scotland that if they do in fact do the deed, they will lose the pound sterling (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/uk-to-scotland-walk-away-lose-the-pound/2014/02/13/f9406a4e-94cf-11e3-9e13-770265cf4962_story.html?hpid=z1), and will have to make do with an alternative -perhaps adopting the euro.  
Would Scotland really have a problem with joining the Eurozone though? I was under the impression that they were more favorable towards the EU/Eurozone than the rest of the UK.

If they joined the Eurozone, the Scots would have even less influence over their currency than if they continued to use the British pound despite having no official say in it.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Beezer on February 14, 2014, 02:02:25 PM
It would probably take at least 4-5 years for them to join the euro anyway if everything went off w/o a hitch (EU membership negotiations, then spending two years as part of the ERM II).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 14, 2014, 06:28:54 PM
It would probably take at least 4-5 years for them to join the euro anyway if everything went off w/o a hitch (EU membership negotiations, then spending two years as part of the ERM II).

I fail to see how Scotland could both keep the pound and be part of ERM II.  Even if only as a temporary measure, the Scottish punnd would have to be independent of the pound sterling during any transition to the Euro unless Britain were to seek to join the Euro.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on February 14, 2014, 09:11:11 PM
It would probably take at least 4-5 years for them to join the euro anyway if everything went off w/o a hitch (EU membership negotiations, then spending two years as part of the ERM II).

I fail to see how Scotland could both keep the pound and be part of ERM II.  Even if only as a temporary measure, the Scottish punnd would have to be independent of the pound sterling during any transition to the Euro unless Britain were to seek to join the Euro.

EU is always willing to bend its rules if needed.

And negociations shouldn't be long, since they don't need to adjust their laws to EU norms (they are already adjusted).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: doktorb on February 15, 2014, 01:56:04 PM
What lessons after there, with regards to currency, in Ireland's independence in 1922?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Јas on February 17, 2014, 08:09:04 AM
What lessons after there, with regards to currency, in Ireland's independence in 1922?

Well we didn't get around to setting up our own currency until 1928 - and maintained the link with sterling until 1979.

For 1922-28, banknotes issued by the Bank of England, the British Treasury and six Irish banks were in circulation. Only the British Treasury notes had legal tender status. The set-up doesn't appear to have been regarded as particularly problematic or difficult.

The Irish Pound: From Origins to EMU  (https://www.centralbank.ie/paycurr/notescoin/history/Documents/spring8.pdf) by John Kelly is a readable, reasonably concise summary of the history of Irish currency post-independence.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: YL on February 18, 2014, 02:34:00 PM
No comment on José Manuel Barroso's (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/16/independent-scotland-extremely-difficult-join-eu) comments about an independent Scotland joining the EU?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on February 18, 2014, 02:51:34 PM
No comment on José Manuel Barroso's (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/16/independent-scotland-extremely-difficult-join-eu) comments about an independent Scotland joining the EU?

Who cares? He is on his way out and plenty of European countries would do anything to annoy UK.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on February 20, 2014, 07:10:50 AM
Has the intervention by the ‘Gang of Three’ on the matter of a Scottish currency helped the Yes campaign? Survation’s new poll have Yes up 6 to 38% and No down 5 to 47% with 16% Don’t knows. The changes are from their last poll in January which came hot on the heels of ICM’s poll showing a narrow gap. Unfortunately Survation also changed their methodology which used to weight turnout against Westminster voting intention(!) so it’s difficult to confirm if there is correlation.

TNS also have released a poll, but this is from 6th February so is quite out of date. Yes is up 3 to 35%, No down 5 to 44% with the Don’t Knows at 21%.

As talked about a few weeks ago, we have pollsters without good track records releasing polls for the campaign. ICM dip their toe in now and then. Other pollsters have stayed away. Hopefully we will see the more established polling companies getting involved after the summer.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: ChrisDR68 on February 20, 2014, 10:06:14 AM
Not having a currency union wouldn't stop an independent Scotland using the pound unilaterally.  Montenegro isn't in the Eurozone but uses the Euro.

The Eurozone crisis has changed a lot of conceptions of what joining the Euro would entail. Basically you lose the ability to set an interest rate that suits your own country (something most of the southern Med countries have found out to their cost) and any way to devaluate your currency which can kick start an economy in the doldrums.

Once you're inside the Euro these issues are permanent so it's a huge decision to enter into it. I suspect a lot of the political class in those southern Med countries I mentioned regret not realising what they were getting their countries into in January 2002 when the Euro went live as an everyday currency for the general public.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: YL on February 20, 2014, 01:45:54 PM
Has the intervention by the ‘Gang of Three’ on the matter of a Scottish currency helped the Yes campaign? Survation’s new poll have Yes up 6 to 38% and No down 5 to 47% with 16% Don’t knows. The changes are from their last poll in January which came hot on the heels of ICM’s poll showing a narrow gap. Unfortunately Survation also changed their methodology which used to weight turnout against Westminster voting intention(!) so it’s difficult to confirm if there is correlation.

According to John Curtice (here (http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/02/first-post-currency-row-poll-shows-no-boost-for-no/)) the previous weighting was on recalled 2010 Westminster vote, and the new one is on recalled 2011 Holyrood vote.  He says that evidence from other polling companies points to the latter being more reliable.

While various questions about weighting methods and the like cloud the picture a bit, I think the recent polls are giving reasons for Yes supporters to become more optimistic, though I still think they're unlikely to actually win.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: YL on February 24, 2014, 02:11:49 PM
More polls:

ICM Yes 37 (no change) No 49 (+5) undecided 14 (-5) (NB changes to methodology)

Panelbase Yes 37 (no change) No 47 (-2) undecided 16 (+2)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Cassius on February 24, 2014, 06:07:47 PM
So, could it be said that, perhaps, there is some kind of symbolic margin that the yes vote will have to cross in order for the referendum not to be seen as a failure for the SNP? I don't know, something like a 45 percent+ yes vote? I'm just thinking, because a relatively close result could potentially strengthen the SNP's hand if they want to devolve further powers to the Scottish Parliament. On the other hand, if the no side wins by something like 20-30 points (seems relatively unlikely at this stage, but, you never know), such a case would seem weakened. Just a thought. I mean, obviously, a no vote would be a failure for the SNP, but a close result might soften the blow quite a bit, as described above.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 24, 2014, 07:17:19 PM
Assuming no great shift in opinion by September, they'll want it close enough so that they can legitimately call for a re-run 'soon'. Exactly what 'close enough' is is not yet clear.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 03, 2014, 11:03:49 AM
The Scottish people need to realise that Alex Salmond and his SNP cronies have no plan B for two integral parts of their white paper.

First on the currency union, all three main Westminster parties have clearly stated no such union will take place and yet Salmond continues to propagate the opinion that a currency union will happen and that it is all bluff from the three main parties. I'm not Scottish but I wouldn't be prepared to gamble on the currency. Let's assume, as is most likely the case, that Westminster doesn't back-track and no currency union takes place, what are Scotland's other options? Well the first option would be to create their own currency, huge problems and costs would arise in doing so. A new Scottish currency would incur large costs due to currency conversion of imports/exports and would also be exposed to currency risk and that's not mentioning the cost of re-structuring that would have to take place. The other option would be to join the euro, which at present is neither an enticing prospect nor a viable one as my next point will indicate.

The Scots will lose their EU membership and have to re-apply as a new member-state. Salmond seems to assume that the rules in EU law won't apply to Scotland and that it is a "special" case. This is just simply not the case at all! Scotland will no doubt have to give up something significant in accession negotiations, because every country has had to in the past. Plus they would need the acceptance of all EU member-states. Spain certainly would have a vested interest in vetoing the Scottish bid so as to dissuade Catalonia from attempting to gain independence.

Those are just two primary issues that the SNP have no back-up plan for, or at least they have not detailed such plans in public. We're not even mentioning the tough negotiations that would occur with the rest of the UK if Scotland were to vote "yes", by which point the gloves will well and truly be off and all the niceties of the "better together" campaign will be out of the window.

The SNP really don't have a strong enough argument to leave the Union.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 03, 2014, 04:13:52 PM
The notion that an independent Scotland would have any trouble entering the European Union is laughable on its face. There would be nothing "to give up" because Scotland is already a member of the European Union and is already compliant with all European Union rules and regulations.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 03, 2014, 04:22:54 PM
The notion that an independent Scotland would have any trouble entering the European Union is laughable on its face. There would be nothing "to give up" because Scotland is already a member of the European Union and is already compliant with all European Union rules and regulations.

You clearly don't understand the accession process. They would technically be a new member-state and as such would have to re-apply. If they continue to use sterling without a currency union then they couldn't re-join the EU as a central bank is required so that isn't an option. Plus it would need the acceptance of all 28 member-states. EU negotiations are a long and arduous process and no doubt they will have to satisfy all 28 members so they will have to concede on some negotiation points of that I have no doubt.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on March 03, 2014, 05:13:39 PM
The notion that an independent Scotland would have any trouble entering the European Union is laughable on its face. There would be nothing "to give up" because Scotland is already a member of the European Union and is already compliant with all European Union rules and regulations.

You clearly don't understand the accession process. They would technically be a new member-state and as such would have to re-apply. If they continue to use sterling without a currency union then they couldn't re-join the EU as a central bank is required so that isn't an option. Plus it would need the acceptance of all 28 member-states. EU negotiations are a long and arduous process and no doubt they will have to satisfy all 28 members so they will have to concede on some negotiation points of that I have no doubt.

Xahar is right. To enter EU, you have to conform to various regulations, which are pre-defined. Logically, Scotland already respect all those regulations, given it's already subjected to those regulations.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 03, 2014, 05:17:24 PM
The notion that an independent Scotland would have any trouble entering the European Union is laughable on its face. There would be nothing "to give up" because Scotland is already a member of the European Union and is already compliant with all European Union rules and regulations.

You clearly don't understand the accession process. They would technically be a new member-state and as such would have to re-apply. If they continue to use sterling without a currency union then they couldn't re-join the EU as a central bank is required so that isn't an option. Plus it would need the acceptance of all 28 member-states. EU negotiations are a long and arduous process and no doubt they will have to satisfy all 28 members so they will have to concede on some negotiation points of that I have no doubt.

Xahar is right. To enter EU, you have to conform to various regulations, which are pre-defined. Logically, Scotland already respect all those regulations, given it's already subjected to those regulations.

May be so but it is an irrelevant point. They would legally be a new member-state and so have to re-apply. Accession process would be lengthy even for a country like Scotland that adheres to all rules and regs. Dr. Barroso didn't say it would be "difficult" for no reason. All 28 EU member-states would have to agree and I think you'd at the very least have to persuade Spain.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on March 03, 2014, 05:31:52 PM
The notion that an independent Scotland would have any trouble entering the European Union is laughable on its face. There would be nothing "to give up" because Scotland is already a member of the European Union and is already compliant with all European Union rules and regulations.

You clearly don't understand the accession process. They would technically be a new member-state and as such would have to re-apply. If they continue to use sterling without a currency union then they couldn't re-join the EU as a central bank is required so that isn't an option. Plus it would need the acceptance of all 28 member-states. EU negotiations are a long and arduous process and no doubt they will have to satisfy all 28 members so they will have to concede on some negotiation points of that I have no doubt.

Xahar is right. To enter EU, you have to conform to various regulations, which are pre-defined. Logically, Scotland already respect all those regulations, given it's already subjected to those regulations.

May be so but it is an irrelevant point. They would legally be a new member-state and so have to re-apply. Accession process would be lengthy even for a country like Scotland that adheres to all rules and regs. Dr. Barroso didn't say it would be "difficult" for no reason. All 28 EU member-states would have to agree and I think you'd at the very least have to persuade Spain.

Difficult, but not lenghty (the long part is all the regulations). Spain is so broke than it should be possible to buy it. And Barroso will be replaced later this year.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on March 03, 2014, 05:51:44 PM
Salmond claims (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10147764/Alex-Salmond-threatens-to-blockade-North-Sea-over-EU-membership.html), and I'm not sure how true this is, that countries like Spain will want Scotland in the EU as quickly as possible because so many of their fisherman use Scottish waters, so economic self interest will trump political grandstanding.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: EPG on March 03, 2014, 07:18:49 PM
Plenty of countries use others' currencies, plenty use the euro without being EU members, and plenty peg their currencies to a big neighbour (most closely, Denmark).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 03, 2014, 07:59:54 PM
Plenty of countries use others' currencies, plenty use the euro without being EU members, and plenty peg their currencies to a big neighbour (most closely, Denmark).

Indeed they do, but if Scotland wants to join the EU I cannot use sterling without a currency union because if they do so, an independent Scotland would technically have no central bank. EU rules stipulate that member-states must have a central bank and so using sterling without a currency union is not an option if Scotland wants to successfully join the EU after voting for independence.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Јas on March 04, 2014, 09:54:51 AM
If they continue to use sterling without a currency union then they couldn't re-join the EU as a central bank is required so that isn't an option.

Indeed they do, but if Scotland wants to join the EU I cannot use sterling without a currency union because if they do so, an independent Scotland would technically have no central bank. EU rules stipulate that member-states must have a central bank and so using sterling without a currency union is not an option if Scotland wants to successfully join the EU after voting for independence.

I have some awareness of the central bank criteria as apply to eurozone candidacy, but am unfamiliar with same with regard to EU membership.

I'd be grateful if you could help me with a citation as to where in the Copenhagen Criteria or the acquis that speaks to EU applicant states requiring a central bank (and how that is defined); and, also, grateful if you could comment on whether a central bank which elects to in effect maintain a currency union, by shadowing interest rate changes and so forth, meets the same criterion.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: EPG on March 04, 2014, 01:58:30 PM
Plenty of countries use others' currencies, plenty use the euro without being EU members, and plenty peg their currencies to a big neighbour (most closely, Denmark).

Indeed they do, but if Scotland wants to join the EU I cannot use sterling without a currency union because if they do so, an independent Scotland would technically have no central bank. EU rules stipulate that member-states must have a central bank and so using sterling without a currency union is not an option if Scotland wants to successfully join the EU after voting for independence.

It wouldn't technically have no central bank. It could create a central bank that pegs its currency as Ireland did with sterling or as Denmark does with the euro. That may not be the SNP's proposal, but I'm not particularly in the business of supporting their arguments for independence. However, it would be possible to devolve exchange rate policy to the UK/Europe.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 04, 2014, 02:33:56 PM
Plenty of countries use others' currencies, plenty use the euro without being EU members, and plenty peg their currencies to a big neighbour (most closely, Denmark).

Indeed they do, but if Scotland wants to join the EU I cannot use sterling without a currency union because if they do so, an independent Scotland would technically have no central bank. EU rules stipulate that member-states must have a central bank and so using sterling without a currency union is not an option if Scotland wants to successfully join the EU after voting for independence.

It wouldn't technically have no central bank. It could create a central bank that pegs its currency as Ireland did with sterling or as Denmark does with the euro. That may not be the SNP's proposal, but I'm not particularly in the business of supporting their arguments for independence. However, it would be possible to devolve exchange rate policy to the UK/Europe.

You may be right but then what is the point of independence if you are going to keep the same currency but have less powers relating to it? Surely that is a worse situation than if Scotland stays with the United Kingdom?!... I am becoming a bit annoyed at the pick and choose attitude that the SNP seem to have, if they want to become independent then go the whole way stop picking and choosing aspects of the Union that are favourable. If Scotland want to go it alone they will have no help from the UK I can assure you of that, Westminster is being very nice now but if a "yes" vote is passed then the gloves will be off and the niceties out of the window for good.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Zanas on March 04, 2014, 04:32:21 PM
I am becoming a bit annoyed at the pick and choose attitude that the SNP seem to have, if they want to become independent then go the whole way stop picking and choosing aspects of the Union that are favourable.
This coming from a UK citizen is SWEET and HILARIOUS. :D :D :D


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 04, 2014, 04:40:27 PM
I am becoming a bit annoyed at the pick and choose attitude that the SNP seem to have, if they want to become independent then go the whole way stop picking and choosing aspects of the Union that are favourable.
This coming from a UK citizen is SWEET and HILARIOUS. :D :D :D

Hardly, we're not looking to leave it any time soon. As an Englishman I regocnise there are positive and negative aspects to the Union but if the SNP is so hell-bent on independence for Scotland then they should deal with the currency issue, EU etc. by themselves and stop trying to keep the Union systems. If the Union is so negative and bad then why do they want to keep so much of it?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Zanas on March 04, 2014, 04:45:24 PM
You don't even realise you are missing the point entirely, do you ? I'm talking about another Union. Think about it.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 04, 2014, 06:56:16 PM
You don't even realise you are missing the point entirely, do you ? I'm talking about another Union. Think about it.

The EU? I'm in favour of it entirely, so are all three main political parties. If you are talking about the minority off-swing of UKIP and the opinion of the Murdoch press then I hardly think you have a point.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on March 04, 2014, 07:29:05 PM
You don't even realise you are missing the point entirely, do you ? I'm talking about another Union. Think about it.

The EU? I'm in favour of it entirely, so are all three main political parties. If you are talking about the minority off-swing of UKIP and the opinion of the Murdoch press then I hardly think you have a point.

Ironic, given than UK is out of the Euro, out of Schengen...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 04, 2014, 08:17:51 PM
You don't even realise you are missing the point entirely, do you ? I'm talking about another Union. Think about it.

The EU? I'm in favour of it entirely, so are all three main political parties. If you are talking about the minority off-swing of UKIP and the opinion of the Murdoch press then I hardly think you have a point.

Ironic, given than UK is out of the Euro, out of Schengen...

Interesting, 10 other EU countries are also out of the Eurozone and it hasn't done the UK much harm though I am a Lib Dem and so am in favour of an eventual switch to the Euro at the right time, rather than rushing things which can lead to disaster. The UK is an island unlike other EU countries minus Ireland so the Schengen agreement isn't suitable to say the least.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on March 04, 2014, 08:24:11 PM
You don't even realise you are missing the point entirely, do you ? I'm talking about another Union. Think about it.

The EU? I'm in favour of it entirely, so are all three main political parties. If you are talking about the minority off-swing of UKIP and the opinion of the Murdoch press then I hardly think you have a point.

Ironic, given than UK is out of the Euro, out of Schengen...

Interesting, 10 other EU countries are also out of the Eurozone and it hasn't done the UK much harm though I am a Lib Dem and so am in favour of an eventual switch to the Euro at the right time, rather than rushing things which can lead to disaster. The UK is an island unlike other EU countries minus Ireland so the Schengen agreement isn't suitable to say the least.

The point is than you are saying than Scotland should "stop picking and choosing aspects of the Union that are favourable.", when UK is doing exactly the same with EU. Zanas and I didn't said that it was right or wrong, just than it's ironic than you are saying that.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 04, 2014, 08:26:28 PM
You don't even realise you are missing the point entirely, do you ? I'm talking about another Union. Think about it.

The EU? I'm in favour of it entirely, so are all three main political parties. If you are talking about the minority off-swing of UKIP and the opinion of the Murdoch press then I hardly think you have a point.

Ironic, given than UK is out of the Euro, out of Schengen...

Interesting, 10 other EU countries are also out of the Eurozone and it hasn't done the UK much harm though I am a Lib Dem and so am in favour of an eventual switch to the Euro at the right time, rather than rushing things which can lead to disaster. The UK is an island unlike other EU countries minus Ireland so the Schengen agreement isn't suitable to say the least.

The point is than you are saying than Scotland should "stop picking and choosing aspects of the Union that are favourable.", when UK is doing exactly the same with EU.

All member states are guilty of this, we're just better at it.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Јas on March 05, 2014, 01:30:20 AM
The UK is an island unlike other EU countries minus Ireland so the Schengen agreement isn't suitable to say the least.

Why does Britain's status as an island render it particularly unsuitable to be part of Schengen?


(Also, you may have missed my earlier question on central bank rules for EU applicant states - do please respond whenever you get a chance.)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Zanas on March 05, 2014, 04:15:34 AM
The UK is an island unlike other EU countries minus Ireland so the Schengen agreement isn't suitable to say the least.
For the record, Malta and Cyprus are also islands. And Malta is in Schengen. Iceland is also an island, in Schengen, while not being in the EU.

This has nothing to do with anything.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 05, 2014, 05:52:36 AM
The UK is an island unlike other EU countries minus Ireland so the Schengen agreement isn't suitable to say the least.
For the record, Malta and Cyprus are also islands. And Malta is in Schengen. Iceland is also an island, in Schengen, while not being in the EU.

This has nothing to do with anything.

I think you are taking this thread off on a tangent. There is a clear difference between the UK's EU situation and Scottish Independence, most notably all the things you have talked about regarding UK/EU are opt-in scenarios. Scotland isn't opting in to anything, they are leaving the UK because they want to be independent. Picking and choosing when your leaving something is completely different to a situation where you have the choice to opt-in.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: ERvND on March 10, 2014, 02:30:36 PM
Alex Salmond has finally found an answer to the currency question:

An independent Scotland will adopt Bitcoin as its currency. (http://newsthump.com/2014/03/10/alex-salmond-claims-scotland-will-adopt-bitcoin/)

;)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on April 07, 2014, 05:52:05 AM
As you know I wear a big 'Yes' hat

However I can say there is deep, deep concern within the No camp right now; they aren't speaking to or briefing each other yet. And Yes haven't started spending their money. In the last few weeks when faces need to be there and messages need to be hammered home that may make a difference.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Zanas on April 07, 2014, 06:21:33 AM
I wear a similar, though probably smaller, hat : in my family we count how many countries each of us has set foot onto. This would bring me from 53 to 54 instantly, without effort ! :)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: ChrisDR68 on April 07, 2014, 07:03:05 AM
My Scottish Independence referendum prediction:

Stay within the UK....................... 60%
Vote for Scottish independence... 40%

If this happens the Scots will likely get more devolved powers whether the Tories or Labour are in power or whether there's another coalition government after the 2015 election.

On the tangent discussion about the EU... I personally would be happy for the UK to stay in the EU as long as we obtain an opt out from any future European federal superstate (similar to the opt out of the Euro that John Major negotiated in 1991).

Not sure the European political class would find that acceptable though (especially the French) as the federal superstate idea is the eventual stated endgame of the EU according to the Treaty Of Rome.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on April 07, 2014, 07:37:34 AM
As you know I wear a big 'Yes' hat

However I can say there is deep, deep concern within the No camp right now; they aren't speaking to or briefing each other yet. And Yes haven't started spending their money. In the last few weeks when faces need to be there and messages need to be hammered home that may make a difference.

Yeah, Better Together are pretty shambolic.

This is obviously anecdotal, but of my friends, and I live in what you'd expect to be the unionist stronghold of Edinburgh, 14 "like" Yes Scotland, and 13 "like" Better Together. Also the pro independence people are far more vocal.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: EPG on April 07, 2014, 05:09:34 PM
It helps that the campaign is one party that isn't in the national government versus everyone else. It's a lot easier to be consistent that way. If you had two nationalist parties each paying an equal contribution and asking for an equal share of airtime, you'd get more inconsistencies.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on April 07, 2014, 08:17:32 PM
It helps that the campaign is one party that isn't in the national government versus everyone else. It's a lot easier to be consistent that way. If you had two nationalist parties each paying an equal contribution and asking for an equal share of airtime, you'd get more inconsistencies.

Many countries having referendums decided to force parties to create united groups for refereranda (in Quebec, they are called umbrella committees).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on April 08, 2014, 06:19:02 AM
It just keeps getting better;

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/08/scottish-independence-lord-robertson-uk-global-status

'Lord Robertson, the former defence secretary and Nato chief, has claimed that Scottish independence would have a "cataclysmic" effect on European and global stability by undermining the UK on the world stage...

A former secretary general of Nato, Robertson said the "loudest cheers" after a yes vote would come from the west's enemies and other "forces of darkness".

"What could possibly justify giving the dictators, the persecutors, the oppressors, the annexers, the aggressors and the adventurers across the planet the biggest pre-Christmas present of their lives by tearing the United Kingdom apart?" Robertson told the Brookings Institute on Monday.'

This is becoming increasingly unhinged.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: politicus on April 08, 2014, 06:39:31 AM
It just keeps getting better;

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/08/scottish-independence-lord-robertson-uk-global-status

'Lord Robertson, the former defence secretary and Nato chief, has claimed that Scottish independence would have a "cataclysmic" effect on European and global stability by undermining the UK on the world stage...

A former secretary general of Nato, Robertson said the "loudest cheers" after a yes vote would come from the west's enemies and other "forces of darkness".

"What could possibly justify giving the dictators, the persecutors, the oppressors, the annexers, the aggressors and the adventurers across the planet the biggest pre-Christmas present of their lives by tearing the United Kingdom apart?" Robertson told the Brookings Institute on Monday.'


That's pretty delusional both regarding Britains importance in today's world and the consequences for Britains military and diplomatic strength of a Scottish secession.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Zanas on April 08, 2014, 11:33:34 AM
Tell me this news was published one week ago on April 1st ?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: EPG on April 08, 2014, 12:56:09 PM
He's exaggerating, but not completely or objectively wrong. Even if the SNP were unambiguously committed to the western alliance, splitting NATO armies into smaller contingents weakens NATO by making the threat of collective action less credible, much as the UK's parliamentary vote forestalled collective action in Syria. He's correct that would have significant consequences for rUK and would weaken its self-confidence, as happened after the loss of India, as well as reducing its influence through smaller size. However, few of these arguments should matter for Scots who are not NATO enthusiasts, and the happiness of rUK isn't really the responsibility of Scots at all.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on April 20, 2014, 05:15:48 AM
ICM have it 52-48 no. Yes leads amongst those born in Scotland.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on April 20, 2014, 06:44:48 AM
ICM have it 52-48 no. Yes leads amongst those born in Scotland.

That's only among those who've decided, it's 42-39 with undecided's included. Either way, independence looks like a definite possibility now.

For those who are interested, here's the poll: http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/referendum-race-on-knife-edge-as-no-support-slides-1-3382125


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Lurker on April 20, 2014, 07:11:54 AM
What would independence mean for the Scottish MPs in Westminister?

Would they still get to run in the 2015 election? And if so, would they get removed at the moment Scotland actually became an independent state?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: rob in cal on April 20, 2014, 03:03:40 PM
   Sorry if this has been brought up before, but has there been much discussion about what Scottish independence would mean for the Labor Party in Westminster, if they lost a huge base of support and seats due to losing Scotland?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: JerryArkansas on April 20, 2014, 03:07:23 PM
   Sorry if this has been brought up before, but has there been much discussion about what Scottish independence would mean for the Labor Party in Westminster, if they lost a huge base of support and seats due to losing Scotland?
There has been.  Labor would have to rethink it's election strategy if they want to win.  Losing Scotland will be to Labor what losing CA, OR, WA, and HI would be for the democrats here in America.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: windjammer on April 20, 2014, 03:09:57 PM
The labor would lose 40 seats, the Lib/dem 10 seats. Not good at all...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on April 20, 2014, 03:14:42 PM
   Sorry if this has been brought up before, but has there been much discussion about what Scottish independence would mean for the Labor Party in Westminster, if they lost a huge base of support and seats due to losing Scotland?

It has, and the answer is that Scotland has too few seats to make a difference except in the most close elections. It won't lead to eternal Torie dominance forever. The real Labour base is Northern England, so unless Manchester and Liverpool suddenly want to become independent, left-wing Englishmen have nothing to fear.  

In difference to what Jerry said , it's not really like losing the entire West coast. Scotland doesn't even hold 10% of the UK population... 

Sure it'll make it harder, but not that much harder.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 20, 2014, 03:32:21 PM
I think the post-war elections which would've had different results would be 1950, 1964, 1974 and 2010 (Tory maj).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 20, 2014, 03:57:18 PM
ICM have it 52-48 no. Yes leads amongst those born in Scotland.

Money & the ethnic vote strikes again ;)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: ObserverIE on April 20, 2014, 05:40:37 PM
ICM have it 52-48 no. Yes leads amongst those born in Scotland.

Money & the ethnic vote strikes again ;)

The SNP have enough wit not to go anywhere near that kind of stuff.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: JerryArkansas on April 20, 2014, 05:44:38 PM
   Sorry if this has been brought up before, but has there been much discussion about what Scottish independence would mean for the Labor Party in Westminster, if they lost a huge base of support and seats due to losing Scotland?

It has, and the answer is that Scotland has too few seats to make a difference except in the most close elections. It won't lead to eternal Torie dominance forever. The real Labour base is Northern England, so unless Manchester and Liverpool suddenly want to become independent, left-wing Englishmen have nothing to fear.  

In difference to what Jerry said , it's not really like losing the entire West coast. Scotland doesn't even hold 10% of the UK population... 

Sure it'll make it harder, but not that much harder.
I agree I made a bit of a hyperbole, it would be more like losing just CA.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on April 20, 2014, 06:08:04 PM
When is the vote?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Frodo on April 20, 2014, 07:31:23 PM

September 18 (http://www.scotreferendum.com/). 


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Tieteobserver on April 20, 2014, 08:05:03 PM
If I was English, I would be a bit happy to see Scotland leaving the UK. Calm down dear Scots. No problem with you, ethnically speaking. Its just that you guys always provide Westminster with Labour members. Politically it'd be an advantage for the Tory.

Now, if I was a Scottish I'd be rather frightened of leaving the Union. I can't imagine what a SNP single-party rule is capable of doing over 2 decades of government.

For the sake of the Union Jack, however, its a bit better to remain together. Just hurry: as of the last polls, the Yes was making huge gains over the No.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on April 20, 2014, 08:15:47 PM
Would the UK be called the United Kingdom of England, Wales, and Northern Ireland? Not the best name if you ask me.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Meeker on April 20, 2014, 08:21:32 PM
I've only been following this from headlines. What's caused the upswing in support for independence? Have the paid communications started?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Tieteobserver on April 20, 2014, 08:32:50 PM
I've only been following this from headlines. What's caused the upswing in support for independence? Have the paid communications started?

Crimea and Putin. Its very agreed that the Crimean (and also Eastern Ukraine to a lesser extent) helped sparking secessionism across Europe. Not that it didn't exist before. Just that their success gives them some moral support.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Meeker on April 20, 2014, 08:34:43 PM
Didn't the Yes numbers start moving upwards long before that all happened?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 20, 2014, 10:21:05 PM
Didn't the Yes numbers start moving upwards long before that all happened?

Yes, if Crimea has had any effect, it's been negative fror the Scottish nationalists. In Catalonia, Artur Mas has tried to distance the situation in Crimea and Catalonia because he knows that it doesn't help him.

People in the EU hate Putin, I don't see Crimeans joining Russia helping the Scottish and Catalonian cause.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on April 20, 2014, 10:40:37 PM
If I was English, I would be a bit happy to see Scotland leaving the UK. Calm down dear Scots. No problem with you, ethnically speaking. Its just that you guys always provide Westminster with Labour members. Politically it'd be an advantage for the Tory.

Long-term, perhaps, but short-term, no.
Cameron is sure to lose in 2015 if Scotland leaves UK. Voters will blame him for that.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on April 21, 2014, 05:13:06 AM
If I was English, I would be a bit happy to see Scotland leaving the UK. Calm down dear Scots. No problem with you, ethnically speaking. Its just that you guys always provide Westminster with Labour members. Politically it'd be an advantage for the Tory.

Long-term, perhaps, but short-term, no.
Cameron is sure to lose in 2015 if Scotland leaves UK. Voters will blame him for that.

It won't get that far.  If Scotland votes to secede, Cameron will be forced out of office within a week.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on April 21, 2014, 05:33:45 AM
If I was English, I would be a bit happy to see Scotland leaving the UK. Calm down dear Scots. No problem with you, ethnically speaking. Its just that you guys always provide Westminster with Labour members. Politically it'd be an advantage for the Tory.

Long-term, perhaps, but short-term, no.
Cameron is sure to lose in 2015 if Scotland leaves UK. Voters will blame him for that.

It won't get that far.  If Scotland votes to secede, Cameron will be forced out of office within a week.

Yes people seem to not want to deal with the fact we'd have a constitutional crisis. Labour wouldn't be untouched either. They effectively run the No campaign.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: hawkeye59 on April 21, 2014, 05:59:17 AM
Is there a possibility that Scotland votes yes, but doesn't end up becoming independent?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Gary J on April 21, 2014, 06:46:29 AM
A vote for independence is the start, not the end, of the process of disunion. Various contentious issues would have to be negotiated. When there is an agreement, the Westminster Parliament would have to legislate for the end of the union.

The current devolved Scottish Parliament does not have the legal authority to end the union. Only the Westminster Parliament could do that.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 21, 2014, 08:25:04 AM
I couldn't see it happening, it'd be seen as an outrage and, quite frankly, it'd prove the nats right about Westminster.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Tieteobserver on April 21, 2014, 09:31:03 AM
If I was English, I would be a bit happy to see Scotland leaving the UK. Calm down dear Scots. No problem with you, ethnically speaking. Its just that you guys always provide Westminster with Labour members. Politically it'd be an advantage for the Tory.

Long-term, perhaps, but short-term, no.
Cameron is sure to lose in 2015 if Scotland leaves UK. Voters will blame him for that.

Yeah, it was precisely long-term I was referring to.

The Tory is doomed for the next decade anyways.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 21, 2014, 09:45:46 AM
I couldn't see it happening, it'd be seen as an outrage...

If we're talking actual blocking of independence in the event of a 'Yes' vote, then, sure. But the process of decoupling would take a while: Scotland isn't voting on whether or not to declare UDI.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 21, 2014, 09:48:32 AM
I couldn't see it happening, it'd be seen as an outrage...

If we're talking actual blocking of independence in the event of a 'Yes' vote, then, sure. But the process of decoupling would take a while: Scotland isn't voting on whether or not to declare UDI.

Isn't the date of secession set for sometime in 2016 should Yes win?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 21, 2014, 09:57:54 AM
Regarding opinion polls: try here. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014)

Unfortunately most of the firms that have regularly asked the question are probably terrible or provenly so.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on April 21, 2014, 01:23:55 PM
I've only been following this from headlines. What's caused the upswing in support for independence? Have the paid communications started?

Crimea and Putin. Its very agreed that the Crimean (and also Eastern Ukraine to a lesser extent) helped sparking secessionism across Europe. Not that it didn't exist before. Just that their success gives them some moral support.

That makes absolutely no sense in this context.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: EPG on April 21, 2014, 01:37:00 PM
The UK 1922 general election was held a year after the Anglo-Irish Treaty recognised Irish secession, but a month before the new Irish Free State officially came into existence. Even though they were still recognised as being UK territory for three weeks, the Free State constituencies did not elect MPs and ceased to exist. The south of Ireland had already seceded de facto, with its own courts, parliament, etc., and abstentionist republicans held almost all the seats of the future Free State in the House of Commons. So an election would have been an utter farce.

In contrast, Scotland has not yet established its own republican courts, revolutionary provisional parliament, etc., and any negotiation about a positive election result in September 2014 will last longer than May 2015 plus three weeks, so I don't think the Irish case will be a precedent for excluding Scottish MPs.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 21, 2014, 01:49:35 PM
The real constitutional crisis would come if we have EdM elected in 2015 with a 40ish seat lead...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on April 21, 2014, 02:07:28 PM
The real constitutional crisis would come if we have EdM elected in 2015 with a 40ish seat lead...

I have a feeling that in the event of independence the SNP's electoral strength at Holyrood would be replicated at Westminster. In other words if Scottish MP's would be involved in getting a good deal for Scotland before independence I doubt voters would be fussed about the Labour v Tory battle down south given that it wouldn't matter anymore. I could see strongly Labour areas at Westminster (and SNP areas at Holyrood) voting in SNP MP's in fairly large numbers. I don't see the Tories standing anyone there at all.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: EPG on April 21, 2014, 02:20:22 PM
In turn, the Conservatives would ditch Cameron and the Lib Dems, initiate an early election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, and run on an English nationalist, hardline-negotiator platform. If the economy keeps doing well, who's to say how big a majority they could get by bashing Salmond, Scottish Labour and the two Eds?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 21, 2014, 03:15:34 PM
In turn, the Conservatives would ditch Cameron and the Lib Dems, initiate an early election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, and run on an English nationalist, hardline-negotiator platform. If the economy keeps doing well, who's to say how big a majority they could get by bashing Salmond, Scottish Labour and the two Eds?

I highly doubt it'll be Scottish Labour or the Eds who'll be blamed if Scotland goes.

If anything, it'd just hit home the message that the Tories are for some people, but not others and are only willing to govern for certain people in certain parts of the country. A country of 5 million people is openly considering burning their bridges with their 300 year old union in no small part because they're not happy with (and have felt victimised by) the Conservative Party.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: EPG on April 21, 2014, 03:29:28 PM
I think that's a bit optimistic from Labour's POV - who's really going to change their economic views, one way or the other, by a Yes vote? More to the point, economics would fall in importance as an issue if voters are more worried about negotiating with Scotland, and economic managment could become a strong point for the Conservatives rather than Labour if wages, employment and output continue to rise.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 21, 2014, 03:50:35 PM
In the event of a YES vote, why can't it be agreed that none of the parties run in Scotland and nominal SNP candidates will run in all constituencies unopposed under the proviso that they won't take their seats?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on April 21, 2014, 04:04:05 PM
A country of 5 million people is openly considering burning their bridges with their 300 year old union in no small part because they're not happy with (and have felt victimised by) the Conservative Party.

Which isn't the main reason why independence would happen. Removed from Holyrood that might be the perception but look how well that worked for Scottish Labour in 2011 :) The big problem for Labour is that they essentially run 'Better Together', at least they are the public face of it. They would quite easily, and quite rightly take on a great deal of the blame for things going wrong.

In the event of a YES vote, why can't it be agreed that none of the parties run in Scotland and nominal SNP candidates will run in all constituencies unopposed under the proviso that they won't take their seats?

That would make sense. I think it all depends on what 'body' is set up to deal with negotiations. If the Commons itself has little input then there's no need for strong Scottish representation there.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Gary J on April 21, 2014, 04:33:33 PM
I see no reason why Labour, Liberal Democrats or Conservatives in Scotland would just disappear, if there is a pro-independence majority in the referendum. All of them have and are likely to retain  representation in the Scottish Parliament.

In the longer run there might be a realignment on the centre-right of Scottish politics. Perhaps the Tories could dissolve the existing party and reform as the Scottish Party or some patriotic name like that. One of the Scottish Conservative leadership candidates a while back suggested that sort of approach.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: International Brotherhood of Bernard on April 21, 2014, 08:28:36 PM
I'm on the fence with this - Can someone give me an unbiased list of pros and cons for Scottish independence?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: njwes on April 22, 2014, 02:04:27 PM
I'm on the fence with this - Can someone give me an unbiased list of pros and cons for Scottish independence?

As New Jerseyans, should we have a definite opinion? ;p


Despite being sprawling and poorly organized the "Issues" list on the wiki is always a good place to start: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: EPG on April 22, 2014, 03:19:57 PM
Realistically, some or all of the SNP would end up as the centre-right party, as the Irish republican movement did in Ireland (though it ended up as two big parties and a bunch of small ones).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: njwes on April 22, 2014, 03:40:29 PM
Realistically, some or all of the SNP would end up as the centre-right party, as the Irish republican movement did in Ireland (though it ended up as two big parties and a bunch of small ones).

Why's that? Is there a notable centre-right current in the SNP that's just "going along" with those in the party on the left until independence is achieved?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2014, 07:50:12 PM
Realistically, some or all of the SNP would end up as the centre-right party, as the Irish republican movement did in Ireland (though it ended up as two big parties and a bunch of small ones).

Why's that? Is there a notable centre-right current in the SNP that's just "going along" with those in the party on the left until independence is achieved?

SNP doctrine tends to have been quite hazy at times. They'll do what they have to in order to get independence.

They're not called the Tartan Tories for nothing.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on April 22, 2014, 08:14:43 PM
Realistically, some or all of the SNP would end up as the centre-right party, as the Irish republican movement did in Ireland (though it ended up as two big parties and a bunch of small ones).

Why's that? Is there a notable centre-right current in the SNP that's just "going along" with those in the party on the left until independence is achieved?

SNP doctrine tends to have been quite hazy at times. They'll do what they have to in order to get independence.

They're not called the Tartan Tories for nothing.

Well, as many independentist government, they stand for "good government".


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: njwes on April 22, 2014, 08:54:08 PM
Realistically, some or all of the SNP would end up as the centre-right party, as the Irish republican movement did in Ireland (though it ended up as two big parties and a bunch of small ones).

Why's that? Is there a notable centre-right current in the SNP that's just "going along" with those in the party on the left until independence is achieved?

SNP doctrine tends to have been quite hazy at times. They'll do what they have to in order to get independence.

They're not called the Tartan Tories for nothing.

Gotcha. Well then, to take it a bit further: if Scotland does achieve independence, why should we expect the party to stay together as a large political force at all (given a few years)? Its raison d'être is to achieve Scottish independence; with that gone, with nothing to glue together the various factions, couldn't we expect the SNP to dissolve? Leftist SNP voters go to Scottish Labour or Scottish Socialists, conservatives go to Scottish Cons, liberals to Scottish Lib-Dem, and so on.

Obviously that's not at all what happened in Ireland, and I'm not familiar with the history there, but I'd imagine the circumstances are so different that any predictions of the SNP's future based on Fianna Fáil's history would be problematic.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on April 22, 2014, 10:45:19 PM
Realistically, some or all of the SNP would end up as the centre-right party, as the Irish republican movement did in Ireland (though it ended up as two big parties and a bunch of small ones).

Why's that? Is there a notable centre-right current in the SNP that's just "going along" with those in the party on the left until independence is achieved?

SNP doctrine tends to have been quite hazy at times. They'll do what they have to in order to get independence.

They're not called the Tartan Tories for nothing.

Gotcha. Well then, to take it a bit further: if Scotland does achieve independence, why should we expect the party to stay together as a large political force at all (given a few years)? Its raison d'être is to achieve Scottish independence; with that gone, with nothing to glue together the various factions, couldn't we expect the SNP to dissolve? Leftist SNP voters go to Scottish Labour or Scottish Socialists, conservatives go to Scottish Cons, liberals to Scottish Lib-Dem, and so on.

Obviously that's not at all what happened in Ireland, and I'm not familiar with the history there, but I'd imagine the circumstances are so different that any predictions of the SNP's future based on Fianna Fáil's history would be problematic.

I suppose than Liberal Democrats and Conservatives could rename themselves. Usually, independence is followed by a realignment of political parties.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on April 23, 2014, 06:02:12 AM
Realistically, some or all of the SNP would end up as the centre-right party, as the Irish republican movement did in Ireland (though it ended up as two big parties and a bunch of small ones).

Why's that? Is there a notable centre-right current in the SNP that's just "going along" with those in the party on the left until independence is achieved?

SNP doctrine tends to have been quite hazy at times. They'll do what they have to in order to get independence.

They're not called the Tartan Tories for nothing.

They haven't been called the Tartan Tories with any degree of accuracy since 1979. Given that philosophically the party did a 180 on their economic views (and on Europe in particular) in part due to the '79 Group's later ascendency in the early 90's, it's not an accurate description. You could, at best make a comparison to the SNP's governance and electoral performance to the Canadian Liberals from the 90's to the mid 00's.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Gary J on April 23, 2014, 09:59:47 AM
Quote from njwes
Quote
Obviously that's not at all what happened in Ireland, and I'm not familiar with the history there, but I'd imagine the circumstances are so different that any predictions of the SNP's future based on Fianna Fáil's history would be problematic.

The history is indeed different. The SNP has always been a non-violent party. The Irish political system emerged from a War of Independence and a subsequent Civil War between the pro and anti treaty wings of the independence movement. Fianna Fáil were the part of the anti treaty side in the Civil War which, a few years later, took their seats in the democratic legislature of the 26 county state. 

Vote as you shot will not be the principle around which the Scottish political system will be organised.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 23, 2014, 03:40:56 PM
Ideologically, how does the SNP today compare to CiU in Catalonia?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Citizen Hats on April 27, 2014, 07:29:13 PM
Quote from njwes
Quote
Obviously that's not at all what happened in Ireland, and I'm not familiar with the history there, but I'd imagine the circumstances are so different that any predictions of the SNP's future based on Fianna Fáil's history would be problematic.

The history is indeed different. The SNP has always been a non-violent party. The Irish political system emerged from a War of Independence and a subsequent Civil War between the pro and anti treaty wings of the independence movement. Fianna Fáil were the part of the anti treaty side in the Civil War which, a few years later, took their seats in the democratic legislature of the 26 county state. 

Vote as you shot will not be the principle around which the Scottish political system will be organised.

Just look at the conservative Country folk who make up a lot of the base of the Parti Quebecois for a counter example. The PQ might be officially socialist, but it plays to those voters through cultural conservatism


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on April 27, 2014, 10:34:47 PM
Quote from njwes
Quote
Obviously that's not at all what happened in Ireland, and I'm not familiar with the history there, but I'd imagine the circumstances are so different that any predictions of the SNP's future based on Fianna Fáil's history would be problematic.

The history is indeed different. The SNP has always been a non-violent party. The Irish political system emerged from a War of Independence and a subsequent Civil War between the pro and anti treaty wings of the independence movement. Fianna Fáil were the part of the anti treaty side in the Civil War which, a few years later, took their seats in the democratic legislature of the 26 county state. 

Vote as you shot will not be the principle around which the Scottish political system will be organised.

Just look at the conservative Country folk who make up a lot of the base of the Parti Quebecois for a counter example. The PQ might be officially socialist, but it plays to those voters through cultural conservatism

1. The PQ isn't officially socialist and isn't socialist since the 90's, at least.
2. Rural =/ conservative, in Quebec. True in some areas, but false in some. (Northern Quebec rural areas are very similar to Northern Ontario rural areas, same for the urban areas).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: njwes on April 27, 2014, 11:08:51 PM
Quote from njwes
Quote
Obviously that's not at all what happened in Ireland, and I'm not familiar with the history there, but I'd imagine the circumstances are so different that any predictions of the SNP's future based on Fianna Fáil's history would be problematic.

The history is indeed different. The SNP has always been a non-violent party. The Irish political system emerged from a War of Independence and a subsequent Civil War between the pro and anti treaty wings of the independence movement. Fianna Fáil were the part of the anti treaty side in the Civil War which, a few years later, took their seats in the democratic legislature of the 26 county state. 

Vote as you shot will not be the principle around which the Scottish political system will be organised.

Just look at the conservative Country folk who make up a lot of the base of the Parti Quebecois for a counter example. The PQ might be officially socialist, but it plays to those voters through cultural conservatism

I'm don't see any contradiction between being socialist and socially conservative though; some might just call them populist.

So, what are the political leanings of rural Scots? Lib Dems seem to have done well the last couple decades in those areas.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: joevsimp on April 29, 2014, 04:00:32 PM
Since Salmond is such a an of all things Nordic, I wouldn't be surprised if the SNP morphed into something like the Centre Parties over in Scandinavia, probably mop up some of the independent voters at local level in the Highlands (or at least attempt to) and gain some members from the conservatives and libdems (although there'd probably be a few going the other way as well, as well as to Labour and whatever various Socialist parties is most credible


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on May 03, 2014, 04:26:41 PM
The Sunday Herald has come out in favour of Yes. It's the only national newspaper to do so.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Tieteobserver on May 03, 2014, 05:14:07 PM
I believe every population has a right to self-determination. Its a very supreme value for me. Non-negotiable, really. Therefore, if the Scots wish to break from their Union, they should have this right.

They certainly have loads of reasons. Whilst America, Canada and Australia adopted federal forms of government, with relatively little power in Washington, Ottawa and Canberra, most of it being concentrated on their states/provinces, the UK apparently was resistant upon following this path. Instead of allowing Scottish, Welsh and Irish folks to govern themselves, London has, for these last 3 centuries, held quite a huge of a lock upon power. Only recently the Scottish Parliament was opened and given some degree of autonomy. Had the UK federalised long ago, and I bet even Ireland wouldn't have seceded. London chose the wrong path.

That DOES NOT, however, justify the current movement on the part of the Scots. Scotland has a relatively old population, has a reputation for unhealthy citizens, and SNP, from all accounts, is visibly a populist left-wing party. I don't see Scotland well managed in their hands. They will conquer freedom from London, thats true. But I doubt Scotland will be able to be an independent successful nation at least for a while.

Besides, I love the Union Jack. But if I was English, I very certainly would vomit upon the quickest glance at this:

()


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on May 03, 2014, 05:27:12 PM
That DOES NOT, however, justify the current movement on the part of the Scots. Scotland has a relatively old population, has a reputation for unhealthy citizens, and SNP, from all accounts, is visibly a populist left-wing party. I don't see Scotland well managed in their hands. They will conquer freedom from London, thats true. But I doubt Scotland will be able to be an independent successful nation at least for a while.

Besides, I love the Union Jack. But if I was English, I very certainly would vomit upon the quickest glance at this:

()

No.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 03, 2014, 06:46:47 PM
The red X would be thicker, as it's currently being shared with the white cross of St. Andrew's. Remove that and the cross of St. Patrick becomes wider., and the flag would be more aesthetically pleasing than the one you have displayed.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on May 04, 2014, 01:25:55 PM
The Sunday Herald has come out in favour of Yes. It's the only national newspaper to do so.

The news from the ground (and my attempts at obtaining a copy from 20+ shops), the paper has sold out of copies.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Cassius on May 04, 2014, 01:48:43 PM
Will we have to change our flag if Scotland does become independent? I mean, there are plenty of flags still in use that have lost some of their meaning (like the French tricolour, as the white, which used to be the colour of the monarchy, is now pretty redundant).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on May 04, 2014, 02:43:37 PM
There is no chance of the rest of the UK changing the flag if Scotland votes yes.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on May 04, 2014, 02:55:05 PM
There is no chance of the rest of the UK changing the flag if Scotland votes yes.

The flag itself originated after the Union of Crowns but before the Act of Union. It is the a flag of the United Kingdoms. It's only been adopted casually as the flag of Great Britain. I don't see it being amended if Scotland becomes independent.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Јas on May 04, 2014, 04:04:02 PM
The orange in Irish tricolor is rather redundant too.

I quite disagree.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: CatoMinor on May 16, 2014, 10:20:52 AM
This should clearly be the alternative flag on standby in case Scotland leaves. Just remove the blue.

()


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Lurker on May 20, 2014, 09:00:21 AM
Seems like the momentum of the independence campaign has stalled. The two polls for May show a "no" lead of 10 and 12 percentage points.  http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum (http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum)



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on May 20, 2014, 11:11:43 AM
Both Better Together and Yes Scotland have begun obnoxiously running adverts everywhere, (at this point combined they're before about every second youtube video, and my friends were complaining they're at the cinema as well) for those who want to see them, Better Together's is here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5626-PF_GM&list=UUKTXq91LTofxlv98ZS8TfbQ) and Yes Scotland is here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NclkfOjQle0).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on May 20, 2014, 12:49:31 PM
Better Together's is here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5626-PF_GM&list=UUKTXq91LTofxlv98ZS8TfbQ) and Yes Scotland is here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NclkfOjQle0).

The Better Together one is rather lame, but the Scotland Yes one is probably one of the most obnoxious political ads I've seen. If it was any more in your face about and cheesy about its message it would be dangerous to people's health.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Cassius on May 20, 2014, 12:56:37 PM
Kirsty needs to be fed through a mangle.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: politicus on May 20, 2014, 07:19:26 PM
Better Together's is here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5626-PF_GM&list=UUKTXq91LTofxlv98ZS8TfbQ) and Yes Scotland is here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NclkfOjQle0).

Far thicker Scottish accents in better together. Wonder why they chose a girl with such thin accent for the Yes campaign.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on May 21, 2014, 05:48:02 AM
Better Together's is here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5626-PF_GM&list=UUKTXq91LTofxlv98ZS8TfbQ) and Yes Scotland is here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NclkfOjQle0).

Far thicker Scottish accents in better together. Wonder why they chose a girl with such thin accent for the Yes campaign.

One of the problems Better Together face is the perception that they're anti Scottish, while yes Scotland have the opposite problem (the perception that they're anti english), and both alienate huge portions of the country. For instance, almost all "No" voters will still strongly support the Scottish football team, and the vast majority (http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/who-do-we-think-we-are-scottish-and-not-british-1-3113520) identify as Scottish before British, so better together can't be seen as anti Scottish. Similarly, most people will have English relatives or friends, so any campaign that seems anti English will not work either.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on May 21, 2014, 06:22:27 AM
Anecdotally I know about ten English folk personally and all but two are a Yes voter. There is a selection bias as a number of them are involved in the arts and culture (which tends to be both 'local' in outlook and international) but I'm not seeing any animosity. Those who think independence will throw up a border tend to be those who have no family or business connection outside of Scotland and rarely visit the rest of the UK. Those who have settled here and have those connections don't seem to be as concerned by that 'threat.'


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on May 21, 2014, 06:41:52 AM
Of my 16 facebook friends who like Yes Scotland, there is one English, one Irish and one Lithuanian born, plus quite a few other second generation immigrants, and Better Together is roughly the same. So, yeah, the way the campaign is at the moment there isn't much of Scottish/English/Other divide, but due to the nature of the debate there is still a danger that the yes campaign could get painted as sort of "Braveheart", which is why their advert doesn't have a strong accent. I think the same is true in reverse for Better Together.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: CatoMinor on June 12, 2014, 01:21:56 AM
Quote
The Survation poll of 1004 Scots also found the Yes and No camps are virtually neck-and-neck with less than 100 days to go until the historic referendum.

A total of 39 per cent plan to vote Yes on September 18, with just 44 per cent saying No.

If you remove those who have still to make up their mind that would give a wafer-thin majority to unionists, with a referendum result of 53 per cent No and 47 per cent Yes.

The figures mean there has been a tightening in the race since the last Survation poll for the Record four weeks ago. Then, 37 per cent were intending to vote Yes compared with 47 per cent backing No.

But the most dramatic results in the new poll came when we asked how Scots would vote if they were sure Cameron would remain PM.

Then, the figures change to 44 per cent Yes and 38 per cent No – giving a comfortable referendum victory to the nationalists, with a result of 54 per cent Yes and 46 per cent No.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/bombshell-daily-record-poll-shows-3678091#.U5knSMA1nOg.twitter


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on June 12, 2014, 01:26:21 AM
Better Together's is here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5626-PF_GM&list=UUKTXq91LTofxlv98ZS8TfbQ) and Yes Scotland is here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NclkfOjQle0).

Far thicker Scottish accents in better together. Wonder why they chose a girl with such thin accent for the Yes campaign.

One of the problems Better Together face is the perception that they're anti Scottish, while yes Scotland have the opposite problem (the perception that they're anti english), and both alienate huge portions of the country. For instance, almost all "No" voters will still strongly support the Scottish football team, and the vast majority (http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/who-do-we-think-we-are-scottish-and-not-british-1-3113520) identify as Scottish before British
If things stood otherwise, the no's would not of course stand a chance in hell, so this is kind of a given from the polls.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Gass3268 on June 12, 2014, 10:39:39 AM
J.K. Rowling does not support Scottish Independence. She just gave  £1 million to Better Together campaign.

http://thinkprogress.org/world/2014/06/12/3447761/jk-rowling-scotland-independence/ (http://thinkprogress.org/world/2014/06/12/3447761/jk-rowling-scotland-independence/)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 13, 2014, 07:59:28 PM
The Pope has joined the list of big names (Obama, Hillary... JK Rowling) who've expressed doubt in the Salmond project this week.

Watch the SNP try and deal with this. Should be interesting.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: EPG on June 14, 2014, 05:23:32 AM
The Guardian writes:

Quote
The pope's cautious intervention will be seen to have huge significance for Roman Catholics in Scotland

which only proves once again that The Guardian's opinion and knowledge of Catholics is stuck around 1688.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on June 14, 2014, 07:34:18 AM
The Guardian writes:

Quote
The pope's cautious intervention will be seen to have huge significance for Roman Catholics in Scotland

which only proves once again that The Guardian's opinion and knowledge of Catholics is stuck around 1688.
1868, more like. :)

That said, he's clearly the most influential of the names listed by the kipper.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 13, 2014, 01:32:58 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-28279790


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on July 13, 2014, 01:44:21 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-28279790

Given 28% is equivalent to the entire remaining Scottish population plus one friend that's not a bad result :D


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on July 17, 2014, 07:35:23 AM
Peter Kilfoyle comes out for independence.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 17, 2014, 11:05:27 AM
Former MP for Liverpool Walton.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on July 19, 2014, 05:41:12 PM
That's terrible news for Ed Milliband.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Frodo on August 03, 2014, 07:44:29 PM
The unionists look set to keep Scotland in the United Kingdom (and by a solid margin) if this latest poll (http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-of-polls-shows-no-at-57-1-3495985) is to be believed. 


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 03, 2014, 08:17:35 PM
The unionists look set to keep Scotland in the United Kingdom (and by a solid margin) if this latest poll (http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-of-polls-shows-no-at-57-1-3495985) is to be believed. 

It's a "poll of polls" and doesn't count undecided voters. It's also before the Salmond-Darling debate.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: YL on August 05, 2014, 02:50:55 PM
Anyone watching the debate?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on August 05, 2014, 03:20:59 PM

I'm interacting with the television :)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Oakvale on August 07, 2014, 07:10:36 AM
I'm struggling to think if there's ever been anything more cringeworthy than the pro-union side rolling out rafts of D-list celebrities to say "please stay we love you". It might be the most nauseating thing I've ever seen.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Phony Moderate on August 07, 2014, 08:01:17 AM
Funny how celebrities here, when they publicly voice their views, often endorse right-leaning causes. Remember those numpties who threatened to flee the country in 1997?

That said, there are actually a few in this batch that I like. Sad.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on August 07, 2014, 08:09:42 AM
I'm fairly certain that most celebrities are left wingers, or at least liberals.

Also, I don't really think independence can be broken up as a left and right issue.

Besides, weren't most of the 1997 bunch utter nonentities?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Phony Moderate on August 07, 2014, 08:25:02 AM
Maybe, but the ones who express their opinions are often right-wing. More so than in the U.S., anyway.

The Better Together campaign is certainly one of the most conservative campaigns in recent history. Its main narrative appears to be 'Let's not break-up our precious 300-year union....oh and its not economically viable". Very little about making the United Kingdom a better, more just place, despite the fact that Scotland is a centre-left country. If Better Together had run a campaign that reflected Scotland's values and ideals, they could have achieved a 70-30 victory. As it is, 60-40 is probably the best that they can hope for.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 07, 2014, 09:45:51 AM
Nah, the correct strategy in referendums of this sort is always to encourage people to go 'ooh... er... is that such a good idea, really?'. You want to encourage as many people as possible to be uncertain; people who are uncertain tend to vote against change. It's better than crude fearmongering (tried for a while in this campaign to hilariously little effect) and there's no point in this 'positive vision' nonsense.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Oakvale on August 07, 2014, 12:40:50 PM
From a disinterested perspective (and purely in terms of how ill the two methods make my feel) I prefer some good old fashioned fearmongering to "we love you Scotland! Britain!!!!" pleading.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on August 07, 2014, 01:27:49 PM
It's just cringey actually. Celebrity endorsements are probably as off putting as endorsements from business leaders.

On the issue of the debate, I've actually been pleasantly surprised that the public perception doesn't seem to be what the papers say (quelle suprise). Note; I work in a 'youreallgoingtolooseyourjobs' civil service department. Salmond may have mishandled the pound question (though his answer is technically correct) but Darling didn't confirm what powers would come in the event of a no vote or concede Scotland could be a successful nation. I was surprised by how much that came up the day after. I doubt it will move the polls.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on August 07, 2014, 03:49:47 PM
For those who don't know, this (https://www.letsstaytogether.org.uk/) is the link everyone is talking about.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on August 08, 2014, 06:03:37 AM
For those who don't know, this (https://www.letsstaytogether.org.uk/) is the link everyone is talking about.

Quite an interesting reflection on the psyche of 'entitlement' from some corners of the UK. It's like telling a woman who filed for divorce that because the husband doesn't want her to go he should be able to stop her.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on August 08, 2014, 06:26:51 AM
For those who don't know, this (https://www.letsstaytogether.org.uk/) is the link everyone is talking about.

Quite an interesting reflection on the psyche of 'entitlement' from some corners of the UK. It's like telling a woman who filed for divorce that because the husband doesn't want her to go he should be able to stop her.

Is it? They're clearly saying in that letter that the choice is Scotland's and Scotland's alone, so they're not really professing any entitled right to force Scotland to stay in the union, as far as I read it. 

Not to mention that I'm pretty sure a lot of husbands in your described scenario has asked their spouse to reconsider their decision to file for divorce, and it's not even like Scotland has even decided they want a divorce yet. So I don't really see the metaphor.     


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Simfan34 on August 08, 2014, 11:35:12 AM
A few on the Yes side are claiming that the "world's largest oil field (http://www.weourselves.com/on-sept-18-scots-can-gift-cameron-westminster-2-5-trillion-of-their-money-to-spend-on-improving-londons-infrastructure)" has been discovered off of Shetland but that Westminster is covering it up.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on August 08, 2014, 04:37:07 PM
A few on the Yes side are claiming that the "world's largest oil field (http://www.weourselves.com/on-sept-18-scots-can-gift-cameron-westminster-2-5-trillion-of-their-money-to-spend-on-improving-londons-infrastructure)" has been discovered off of Shetland but that Westminster is covering it up.

Aha.

Salmond would be shouting from the rooftops about this at the tiniest sniff of evidence.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 08, 2014, 04:51:22 PM
A few on the Yes side are claiming that the "world's largest oil field (http://www.weourselves.com/on-sept-18-scots-can-gift-cameron-westminster-2-5-trillion-of-their-money-to-spend-on-improving-londons-infrastructure)" has been discovered off of Shetland but that Westminster is covering it up.

Aha.

Salmond would be shouting from the rooftops about this at the tiniest sniff of evidence.

It's part of the September Surprise.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: joevsimp on August 09, 2014, 03:18:22 AM
A few on the Yes side are claiming that the "world's largest oil field (http://www.weourselves.com/on-sept-18-scots-can-gift-cameron-westminster-2-5-trillion-of-their-money-to-spend-on-improving-londons-infrastructure)" has been discovered off of Shetland but that Westminster is covering it up.

Aha.

Salmond would be shouting from the rooftops about this at the tiniest sniff of evidence.

you mean repeatedly typing the word TRILLION in all caps doesn't count as evidence?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on August 17, 2014, 10:21:29 AM
Two new polls. No still led, but gap down despite the Yes campaign being 'finished' last week.

52-48
55-45

There is a rule in Scottish politics. As tempting as it is, don't make an election about Alex Salmond.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on August 17, 2014, 10:47:50 AM
()

Even with the gap narrowing that graphic implies to me there's not enough time left thankfully. And this is probably the sort of thing where all last minute people who make up their minds will go with "No". I'm feeling pretty pleasantly confident about this now.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on August 17, 2014, 11:52:00 AM
I guess that graph is perfect proof that if you want to show a trend in polling you need to use the same company.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: bore on August 17, 2014, 11:59:36 AM
Two new polls. No still led, but gap down despite the Yes campaign being 'finished' last week.

52-48
55-45

There is a rule in Scottish politics. As tempting as it is, don't make an election about Alex Salmond.

Obviously that's with the undecided voters taken out. Here (http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/yes-vote-advancing-despite-currency-fears-poll-1-3511982) is the 55-45 one. I can't find the 52-48 one.

The interesting thing about the scotsman one is that both sides increased their percentage- The undecideds dropped by 7% BT gained 2% and YS gained by 4% (rounding, presumably).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: YL on August 19, 2014, 10:14:00 AM
The 52-48 was Panelbase (actually No 46 Yes 42 Don't Know 12).  Panelbase generally give the best figures for Yes.

Yesterday YouGov released a poll saying No 51 Yes 38 Don't Know 11.  Though this doesn't look good for Yes compared with the other polls, it's actually the best figure YouGov has ever given them.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Oakvale on August 19, 2014, 10:23:57 AM
()

Even with the gap narrowing that graphic implies to me there's not enough time left thankfully. And this is probably the sort of thing where all last minute people who make up their minds will go with "No". I'm feeling pretty pleasantly confident about this now.

Why do you want Scotland to vote No?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 19, 2014, 10:27:40 AM
The most notable feature of polling so far has been stability. Yes percentages - and remember that in referendum polling it is normally the case that the Yes percentage is the key figure - for the five most recent polls of all the firms surveying the referendum regularly:

YouGov: 38, 35, 35, 36, 37
Panelbase: 42, 41, 43, 40, 40
ICM: 38, 34, 36, 34, 39
Survation: 37, 40, 41, 39, 37
TNS: 32, 32, 32, 30, 30

MORI have also been polling but not so frequently.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: swl on August 19, 2014, 10:47:42 AM
From a EU point a view (and in general from any third-party perspective), a 'No' would be of course a much better result.
Both options seems quite good for Scottish people, so better avoid the massive headaches and uncertainties that would result from a 'Yes' vote.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 19, 2014, 11:10:47 AM
So seems like the No is headed to a 60/40 win. While I think this would probably be the right choice for Scotland, I must say I'm a bit disappointed, because a secession would have been really fun.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on August 19, 2014, 12:46:11 PM
So seems like the No is headed to a 60/40 win. While I think this would probably be the right choice for Scotland, I must say I'm a bit disappointed, because a secession would have been really fun.

For politicos, yes. For actual British people, no.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on August 19, 2014, 12:48:22 PM
So seems like the No is headed to a 60/40 win. While I think this would probably be the right choice for Scotland, I must say I'm a bit disappointed, because a secession would have been really fun.

For politicos, yes. For actual British people, no.

Speak for yourself :)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on August 19, 2014, 05:01:50 PM
edit by el caudillo: please post in English

#WhyImVotingUKIP


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: politicus on August 19, 2014, 05:12:09 PM
edit by el caudillo: please post in English


Hash is this some joke I didn't get? There has never been a requirement in the ToS to write in English and we have had plenty of posts in German and Spanish + comments/sentences in a multitude of others languages.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on August 19, 2014, 05:47:21 PM
edit by el caudillo: please post in English


Hash is this some joke I didn't get? There has never been a requirement in the ToS to write in English and we have had plenty of posts in German and Spanish + comments/sentences in a multitude of others languages.

I saw the message before the edit and the issue is than it was some jumbled and barely intelligible English.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Hash on August 19, 2014, 06:21:57 PM
edit by el caudillo: please post in English


Hash is this some joke I didn't get? There has never been a requirement in the ToS to write in English and we have had plenty of posts in German and Spanish + comments/sentences in a multitude of others languages.

No, I don't mind posts in foreign languages (to a limited extent) but people need to make an effort to post in at least intelligible English. I don't think this is an unreasonable request to make out of people.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on August 20, 2014, 09:51:01 AM
edit by el caudillo: please post in English


Hash is this some joke I didn't get? There has never been a requirement in the ToS to write in English and we have had plenty of posts in German and Spanish + comments/sentences in a multitude of others languages.

No, I don't mind posts in foreign languages (to a limited extent) but people need to make an effort to post in at least intelligible English. I don't think this is an unreasonable request to make out of people.

That's terrible news for Ed Miliband


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Simfan34 on August 20, 2014, 11:19:17 AM
Amusingly, a yes to Yes meant, that Scots were no Scots any longer, because they were not aware of their wallets...

edit by el caudillo: please post in English

http://youtu.be/ORj3wImDhLk


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 20, 2014, 11:29:20 AM
Amusingly, a yes to Yes meant, that Scots were no Scots any longer, because they were not aware of their wallets...

edit by el caudillo: please post in English

http://youtu.be/ORj3wImDhLk

Hahahahaha, it never gets old. :D


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on August 24, 2014, 05:56:52 AM
Looks like there's a 2nd TV-debate tomorrow at 21:30 CEST on BBC.

Maybe Alex Salmond has studied his 1st debate (fail ?) and comes out swinging ... !?

If Salmond has a more or less good performance, then I could see this thing getting quite close.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on August 24, 2014, 10:02:59 AM
Depends on whether he makes a coherent response to the currency issue.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on August 24, 2014, 11:20:57 AM
Depends on whether he makes a coherent response to the currency issue.

Here's the interesting thing, the polls a week after the debate, after the issue of the currency had been talked about ad nauseam to the point that it was apparently the end of Salmond's career, narrowed. I think standing his ground actually worked retrospectively.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: YL on August 25, 2014, 03:34:37 PM
This debate seems to be mainly Salmond and Darling shouting over each other.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on August 25, 2014, 04:26:02 PM
I'm happy with how that turned out.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: YL on August 25, 2014, 04:29:19 PM
Guardian/ICM poll on the debate has 71% saying Salmond won, 29% Darling.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on August 25, 2014, 04:39:52 PM
Guardian/ICM poll on the debate has 71% saying Salmond won, 29% Darling.

Well if shouty Salmond had let anybody get a word in edgeways...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Paleobrazilian on August 25, 2014, 04:45:38 PM
Salmond had to be aggressive and he was. Anyway, the polls might tighten, but he'll still lose.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: afleitch on August 25, 2014, 05:01:00 PM
Guardian/ICM poll on the debate has 71% saying Salmond won, 29% Darling.

Well if shouty Salmond had let anybody get a word in edgeways...

He wasn't particularly shouty in either debate. I'll take the 51-49 to no voting intention with ICM. It's a good start.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on August 25, 2014, 05:12:44 PM
Yeah Salmond definitely had the advantage from what I watched (although I changed channel after a while, the bitching on both sides was giving me a headache).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on August 25, 2014, 07:04:41 PM
Darling was much less calm and collected than in the first debate, from the get-go. He seemed constantly rattled and the audience didn't exactly seem the most balanced lot.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: YL on August 26, 2014, 02:03:13 AM
Guardian/ICM poll on the debate has 71% saying Salmond won, 29% Darling.

Well if shouty Salmond had let anybody get a word in edgeways...

He wasn't particularly shouty in either debate. I'll take the 51-49 to no voting intention with ICM. It's a good start.

I didn't see the first debate, but he was shouty last night.  But Darling was aggressive too (all that pointing) so Salmond didn't lose out from it.  Darling came across as obsessed with the currency issue, bringing it up at every opportunity, and the audience weren't impressed.

From an English non-Tory perspective an awful lot of what Salmond says is more an argument for having a better government in Westminster than for Scottish independence.  So it surprises me that you seem so enthusiastic about his campaign.

NB the 51-49 is from ICM's post-debate poll, which was a sample of those who watched the debate, not of the electorate.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on August 26, 2014, 06:06:19 AM
Guardian/ICM poll on the debate has 71% saying Salmond won, 29% Darling.

Well if shouty Salmond had let anybody get a word in edgeways...

He wasn't particularly shouty in either debate. I'll take the 51-49 to no voting intention with ICM. It's a good start.

From an English non-Tory perspective an awful lot of what Salmond says is more an argument for having a better government in Westminster than for Scottish independence.  So it surprises me that you seem so enthusiastic about his campaign.

From an English Labourite, Salmond's agenda just seems needlessly divisive. As much as Cameron's agenda is divisive, just in a different way.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Phony Moderate on August 26, 2014, 06:33:45 AM
That's another tactical error by Better Together - ignoring that a solid third or so of the Scottish population have supported independence since the early 80s and implying that the idea was fringe until 2007. The break-up of the union isn't anymore solely Salmond's campaign/idea than the preservation of the union is Darling's.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 26, 2014, 06:57:17 AM
Celtic must win today. Independence depends on it.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 26, 2014, 04:13:54 PM
That's terrible news for Alex Salmond.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Lurker on August 26, 2014, 04:25:04 PM
So, could this make it close after all - or was the "no" lead too large?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: MaxQue on August 27, 2014, 09:51:08 PM
Afleitch, could you edit the title so the full date is in the title please?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2014, 01:48:20 AM
A new Daily Mail poll has the "Yes" side gaining after the debate:

()

But a look into the internals show that old Scots back the union with 60-40 and 90-92% of olds are "certain" to turn out in the referendum, compared to only 70-85% of younger Scots, who like to back Independence more.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on August 29, 2014, 01:54:04 AM
Unlike some Australians who needed to keep their mouths shut... I don't have a strong view on this.

But I think this goes down 55-45... my gut feel is that people who are undecided now and vote will likely side with the status quo.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on August 29, 2014, 02:29:21 AM

Thes threid obvioosly needed a post in scots tae liven things up.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on August 29, 2014, 06:08:35 AM
There was the first debate. The snap ICM poll of debate viewers showed no change in voting intention but suggested Darling had won the debate. Survation however came out with a larger No lead than it's previous poll. Cue 'Salmond finished' headlines for the next 10 days. YouGov said there was little change and then two polls said that Yes had closed the gap. Then came the second debate. Snap ICM poll showed no change in voting intention but suggested that Salmond had won the debate. Survation then came out with a poll showing that Yes had narrowed the gap, even though this was them reverting to the previous levels of support...

And so it continues.

The problem for the pollsters is this.

1. They are polling Scotland.
2. They are polling a referendum.
3. They are used to weighing by voting intention but can't decide by which election on which to do so.
4. They are having to adjust for men/women.
5. They are having to adjust for how many 'English' born are in Scotland because they are disproportionate No voters except in some samples where they are not.
6. They don't know what the turnout is going to be because the polls suggest it might be the highest in two generations yet experience would suggest something high, but more modest
7. They don't know who is more likely to turnout if the turnout is high or low
8. If they get it wrong and get red faces, it's not as if they are going to be faced with polling the same issue again.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on August 29, 2014, 01:33:32 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDi1OXJn4Vw

I can't believe this. Horrendous to watch.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on August 29, 2014, 05:00:06 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDi1OXJn4Vw

I can't believe this. Horrendous to watch.

Which is why they will never let you see this;

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/fife/margo-macdonald-and-jim-sillars-the-target-of-vile-attack-in-fife-1.513018

Because eggs is eggs...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on August 31, 2014, 03:37:23 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDi1OXJn4Vw

I can't believe this. Horrendous to watch.

Impossible to watch as someone lodged a copyright claim on it.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: bore on August 31, 2014, 09:23:27 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDi1OXJn4Vw

I can't believe this. Horrendous to watch.

Impossible to watch as someone lodged a copyright claim on it.

I can not be the only one to appreciate the irony of Ernest complaining about the zealous implementation of copyright law.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on September 01, 2014, 07:25:17 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDi1OXJn4Vw

I can't believe this. Horrendous to watch.

Impossible to watch as someone lodged a copyright claim on it.

I can not be the only one to appreciate the irony of Ernest complaining about the zealous implementation of copyright law.

I wasn't complaining so much as ... okay, you got me, tho I will point out that the last few moderations I've done for copyright were because someone else reported the infringement.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014
Post by: Lurker on September 01, 2014, 02:03:11 PM
Celtic must win today. Independence depends on it.

Their only remaining chance now is Andy Murray winning the US open.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 01, 2014, 03:46:33 PM
Yougov coming into line a bit today. No lead is down to 6% from 22% in July.

EDIT: 53-47


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Lurker on September 01, 2014, 04:13:47 PM
Yougov coming into line a bit today. No lead is down to 6% from 22% in July.

EDIT: 53-47

:O

I bet both Cameron and Miliband are pretty nervous right now.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 01, 2014, 05:51:10 PM
Yes percentage when 'don't knows' are included is 42%, which is four points higher than the last YouGov poll.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 01, 2014, 06:33:23 PM
Yougov coming into line a bit today. No lead is down to 6% from 22% in July.

EDIT: 53-47

:O

I bet both Cameron and Miliband are pretty nervous right now.

Not really. They're still ahead.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 01, 2014, 06:35:31 PM
That's true, of course. But nevertheless there is now reason to believe that the Yes campaign has some momentum, which hasn't really been the case before now (except in a slow treacly sense).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Lurker on September 01, 2014, 06:59:26 PM
change08: Yes, I can obviously see that they are still in the lead. But this still shows a pretty massive shift from previous YouGov polls. It's clear which side has the momentum at the moment.

How reliable is YouGov, btw? And is there any type of poll aggregator site for this referendum? Couldn't find any good ones (though I didn't look very hard for it).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 01, 2014, 07:12:38 PM

Decent for a British polling firm, but then no British polling firm is exactly great. This is also true of ICM and of MORI. Most of the other firms who've polled the referendum are basically dreck.

Quote
And is there any type of poll aggregator site for this referendum? Couldn't find any good ones (though I didn't look very hard for it).

You could do worse than wikipedia's page on it. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 01, 2014, 10:57:02 PM
Yougov coming into line a bit today. No lead is down to 6% from 22% in July.

EDIT: 53-47

:)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Lurker on September 02, 2014, 03:07:39 AM
Thanks, Al!

Looking at the Wikipedia page, there has been surprisingly few polls in the last few weeks, particularly considering the importance of this vote. Will be very interesting to see what the next ICM poll shows.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: swl on September 02, 2014, 05:42:07 AM
This is getting interesting.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 02, 2014, 06:04:18 AM
That's true, of course. But nevertheless there is now reason to believe that the Yes campaign has some momentum, which hasn't really been the case before now (except in a slow treacly sense).

While I (have to) expect a No victory, I've been very surprised at how unfocused the No campaign is at the moment; there's a hint of perhaps misplaced desperation that is starting to seep into the public consensus. From the start, I don't think that No expected it would have to even try. Now that it just might have to, it's not sure what to say.

I think the key this time round are non voters and Labour voters. In 2011 Labour thought it would win and towards the end of the campaign thought it would loose but not by much of a larger margin than in 2007. It's vote held up in the 'swing' areas it was canvassing but collapsed in areas where it took it's vote for granted. It's very difficult to canvass for a referendum such as this but from what I've been aware of, No (who are fairly thin on the ground) are targeting areas that are 'swing' areas politically at the GE/Holyrood. I'm not entirely sure I see the logic in doing that.

If the polls move towards 50/50 and are in any way close to the mark, then it will all depend on who get's their supporters out to vote.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 02, 2014, 10:55:34 AM
While I (have to) expect a No victory, I've been very surprised at how unfocused the No campaign is at the moment; there's a hint of perhaps misplaced desperation that is starting to seep into the public consensus. From the start, I don't think that No expected it would have to even try. Now that it just might have to, it's not sure what to say.

I suspect that one issue is that no one has really agreed on what the message ought to be, which means they're left without having much of one (which still ought to be enough, of course).

Quote
If the polls move towards 50/50 and are in any way close to the mark, then it will all depend on who get's their supporters out to vote.

Would assume they'll all turn out anyway. If it does end up being genuinely close then it may come down to the people who don't normally vote.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: bore on September 02, 2014, 11:46:52 AM
As afleitch alluded to a while back, the problem with polling here is we're in uncharted waters, so there's really no way of knowing, except in a very general sense, what's happening.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Simfan34 on September 02, 2014, 10:03:30 PM
I cannot help but feel but that this "Yesmentum" shares a common origin with "Cleggmania"- and they will result in a similar effect in the actual result; that is to say, none. But it is just a feeling.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Knives on September 03, 2014, 09:52:12 AM
The prospect of an independent Scotland is quite exciting.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: bore on September 03, 2014, 03:28:30 PM
Yes Scotland have just informed me, via a newspaper that came through the door, that the person who plays a GP in River City, Taggart and Michael Stewart are voting yes. I'm now convinced.

It's been a while since we had anything from better together, though.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 04, 2014, 07:17:04 AM
Apparently a polling organization is about to release a Yes lead...but which polling organization it is is quite important.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Lurker on September 04, 2014, 07:53:56 AM
Does anyone have an explanation as to why the polls have shifted so dramatically in the last few weeks (at least if we go by YouGov polling)? Why did the "no"lead start to sink just now?Surely the Salmond-Darling debates can't have been such a big factor.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 04, 2014, 08:03:18 AM
I think YouGov changed some of their polling method or something (could be wrong), but this sort of polling volatility isn't really that unusual for an electoral event in Britain. Campaign events often leads to significant poll shifts, though they aren't always 'real' (c.f. all of the various Liberal surges since 1974).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 04, 2014, 12:55:14 PM
I think YouGov changed some of their polling method or something (could be wrong), but this sort of polling volatility isn't really that unusual for an electoral event in Britain. Campaign events often leads to significant poll shifts, though they aren't always 'real' (c.f. all of the various Liberal surges since 1974).

YouGov changed it's methodology I think two or three polls ago. It wasn't polling 17 year olds and was not applying a weighting for people not born in Scotland.

It's impossible to tell whether the debate or any other campaign event has had any impact on the polls. They were narrowing prior to Debate 1. There were six polls post debate with the last three showing movement towards Yes after the immediate impact of the debate. Since Debate 2 there has only been two polls with some movement towards yet. So we can't really say anything yet; it might just be a gradual movement.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 04, 2014, 05:37:12 PM
Knew you'd know :)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: YL on September 05, 2014, 01:45:01 AM
Apparently a polling organization is about to release a Yes lead...but which polling organization it is is quite important.

The rumour (at least the one I saw) related to Panelbase, but I still haven't seen any evidence of the actual poll.  It was supposedly going to be published in today's Daily Record (which is being guest edited by Alex Salmond; Darling did yesterday's).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 05, 2014, 02:38:35 AM
It's Panelbase. Yougov polled at the same time and that's out at the weekend. Panelbase is probably being held back to be released the same day to either compliment or challenge Yougov depending on that result.

Miliband dropped by my home turf yesterday.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Zanas on September 05, 2014, 04:02:07 PM
Any chance of polling firms messing with their adjustments just to show a Yes lead just so that their client sells more paper ?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 05, 2014, 04:14:33 PM
Any chance of polling firms messing with their adjustments just to show a Yes lead just so that their client sells more paper ?

Every polling firm is messing with their adjustments with each new poll. That's what happens when the picture becomes clearing in the final few weeks of an election...or less clear.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Zanas on September 05, 2014, 04:16:13 PM
Any chance of polling firms messing with their adjustments just to show a Yes lead just so that their client sells more paper ?

Every polling firm is messing with their adjustments with each new poll. That's what happens when the picture becomes clearing in the final few weeks of an election...or less clear.
That... was a rhetorical question. You know.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 06, 2014, 03:36:52 PM
Yougov have Yes leading by 1.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Lurker on September 06, 2014, 03:43:18 PM

That is terrible news for Ed Miliband.





(And for once the meme proves completely true!)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ilikeverin on September 06, 2014, 04:05:50 PM

I'm seeing 51-49 (https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/508351221913358336).

More reliable link (http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/06/latest-scottish-referendum-poll-yes-lead/).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Lurker on September 06, 2014, 04:15:01 PM
:O

This is utterly ridiculous. A 24 (!) point swing, in less than a month.

By this pace, the Scots will vote for independence in a landslide. This turn of events is quite stunning - two weeks ago, no one would have given the "yes" side a serious chance (other than hacks ;)), now they're in the lead.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on September 06, 2014, 04:15:19 PM
Oh wow.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 06, 2014, 04:16:42 PM
:)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Oakvale on September 06, 2014, 04:17:43 PM
Imagine I'm posting a billion Ron Paul gifs here. :)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: JerryArkansas on September 06, 2014, 04:18:19 PM
Yes yes yes.  My brethren will hopefully throw off the shackles of the British.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 06, 2014, 04:29:33 PM
Christ I'm going to lose a bet :O


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 06, 2014, 04:38:25 PM
Cameron is flying north to Balmoral for talks with the Queen. Miliband ever the opportunist who love bombed my home town last week has given an interview with the Mail saying he might station guards at the border in the event of independence.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 06, 2014, 05:36:55 PM
Figures with undecideds included: Yes 47%, No 45%

We also have a Panelbase poll: No 48%, Yes 44% (52/48).

Was the data from the two companies accidentally swapped? :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Boris on September 06, 2014, 05:44:10 PM
Lol @ Better Together. Looks like referendum night is going to be a really fun time!


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on September 06, 2014, 06:45:57 PM
Talk about a change of fortune! I assumed that the No campaign would only continue to gain strength after the poll that showed such a huge lead. How did Better Together mess this up?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 06, 2014, 07:05:59 PM
Can I ask a stupid question?  What is the current party breakdown of Scottish seats in the UK Parliament?  Couldn't find that info on Wiki.  If the referendum passes, but independence doesn't take effect until 2016, then I suppose it's mathematically possible, if unlikely, that Labour wins the 2015 general election, but then loses its majority in 2016, once Scotland is no longer represented in the UK Parliament?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 06, 2014, 07:11:34 PM
Labour 40, LDem 11, SNP 6, Con 1, Ind Labour (elected as Labour) 1


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: JerryArkansas on September 06, 2014, 07:17:40 PM
The Prime Minster needs to delay the parliamentary elections.  I just did the math, Labour would have a 42 seat majority based on polling now, and they would likely have 49 seats in Scotland. 


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 06, 2014, 07:20:30 PM
The Prime Minster needs to delay the parliamentary elections.  I just did the math, Labour would have a 42 seat majority based on polling now, and they would likely have 49 seats in Scotland. 

But don't they legally have to hold the next election within five years of the previous one (meaning 2015)?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 06, 2014, 07:23:21 PM
The Prime Minster needs to delay the parliamentary elections.  I just did the math, Labour would have a 42 seat majority based on polling now, and they would likely have 49 seats in Scotland.  

Given that the total number of seats would go down with 59, that would still be a Labour majority after Scotlands secession.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DL on September 06, 2014, 07:23:49 PM
As a Canadian who has lived through a couple of referenda on independence in Quebec, allow me to predict what IMHO will happen.

I predict this will be like what happened in 1995 where at first everyone assumed the NO side would win easily, then the NO campaign ended up floundering and the Yes side captured people's imaginations with all this "Oui et tout sera possible!" (Yes and everything is possible)...in other words come with us abroad this spaceship for an exciting adventure into the unknown.

10 days before the referendum some shocking polls came out showing that Yes was ahead and had all the momentum etc...but in the end people who made up their minds at the very last minute got scared by the fact that voting Yes would literally pull the pin out of the grenade and they almost all went NO at the last minute...also there is a phenomemon in Quebec of the "shy federalist"...its kind of "uncool" to support the status quo in Quebec and so a lot of No voters would fib to pollsters. Anyways, despite final polls showing Yes ahead by as much as 5 or 6 points - the No side won 50.4 to 49.6

FWIW journalist Chantal Hebert has just put out a book "The Morning After" about what would have happened if the Yes side had won...its clear that the Yes leaders were very divided amongst themselves and that no one knew what the  they were going to if they won.

I predict that when all is said and done the No side will win by a 2 or 3 points


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: JerryArkansas on September 06, 2014, 07:30:12 PM
The Prime Minster needs to delay the parliamentary elections.  I just did the math, Labour would have a 42 seat majority based on polling now, and they would likely have 49 seats in Scotland. 

But don't they legally have to hold the next election within five years of the previous one (meaning 2015)?

My understanding of the law is horrible, but I belive if a national emergency were to occur, he could delay it.
The Prime Minster needs to delay the parliamentary elections.  I just did the math, Labour would have a 42 seat majority based on polling now, and they would likely have 49 seats in Scotland. 

Given that the total number of seats would go down with 59, that would still be a Labour majority after Scotlands secession.
I could see that happening, but it would be not desirable to have your majority slashed like that only after a year.

Edit, read the law, he could delay it, but only by a few months, to maybe June or July.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 06, 2014, 07:30:34 PM
That would be tantamount to a coup.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DL on September 06, 2014, 07:31:56 PM
FYI, there was no national election in the UK between 1935 and 1945 due to WW2, BUT during the war a National Government was formed with Labour cabinet ministers along side Tories


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 06, 2014, 07:34:28 PM
There are certainly some parallels, DL. At least the campaign has not been as bitter as that in Quebec. Interesting post.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 06, 2014, 07:35:08 PM
FYI, there was no national election in the UK between 1935 and 1945 due to WW2, BUT during the war a National Government was formed with Labour cabinet ministers along side Tories

And there was literally the prospect of invasion and military occupation by a genocidal dictatorship.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 06, 2014, 07:43:42 PM
As a Canadian who has lived through a couple of referenda on independence in Quebec, allow me to predict what IMHO will happen.

I predict this will be like what happened in 1995 where at first everyone assumed the NO side would win easily, then the NO campaign ended up floundering and the Yes side captured people's imaginations with all this "Oui et tout sera possible!" (Yes and everything is possible)...in other words come with us abroad this spaceship for an exciting adventure into the unknown.

10 days before the referendum some shocking polls came out showing that Yes was ahead and had all the momentum etc...but in the end people who made up their minds at the very last minute got scared by the fact that voting Yes would literally pull the pin out of the grenade and they almost all went NO at the last minute...also there is a phenomenon in Quebec of the "shy federalist"...its kind of "uncool" to support the status quo in Quebec and so a lot of No voters would fib to pollsters. Anyways, despite final polls showing Yes ahead by as much as 5 or 6 points - the No side won 50.4 to 49.6


I think the EU makes a difference. It makes it significantly less risky for Scotland to separate. Also I doubt there are as many shy unionists as shy federalists. Its hardly uncool to be unionist.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DL on September 06, 2014, 07:44:20 PM
There are certainly some parallels, DL. At least the campaign has not been as bitter as that in Quebec. Interesting post.

It helps that you don't have 80% of Scots speaking Gaelic at home and demanding linguistic protections etc...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DL on September 06, 2014, 07:48:25 PM

I think the EU makes a difference. It makes it significantly less risky for Scotland to separate. Also I doubt there are as many shy unionists as shy federalists. Its hardly uncool to be unionist.



First of all, aren't there all kinds of questions about Scotland having to join the EU as a new member? In '95 people were told that Quebec would still have free trade with the US and use the Canadian dollar...the point is that No = safety and Yes = uncharted territory and if there is one thing we have learned from polling throughout the western world in recent years its that final polls tend to underestimate support for the status quo (ie: incumbent government or No in any referendum)...look at how much better Labour did compared to what the final polls said in 2010.

Anyways, i could be wrong but i predict No will do a bit better than the final polls and win by a few points.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 06, 2014, 07:56:17 PM

I think the EU makes a difference. It makes it significantly less risky for Scotland to separate. Also I doubt there are as many shy unionists as shy federalists. Its hardly uncool to be unionist.



First of all, aren't there all kinds of questions about Scotland having to join the EU as a new member? In '95 people were told that Quebec would still have free trade with the US and use the Canadian dollar...the point is that No = safety and Yes = uncharted territory and if there is one thing we have learned from polling throughout the western world in recent years its that final polls tend to underestimate support for the status quo (ie: incumbent government or No in any referendum)...look at how much better Labour did compared to what the final polls said in 2010.

Anyways, i could be wrong but i predict No will do a bit better than the final polls and win by a few points.

I think that the effect will - rather obviously - be there, but it will be smaller than in Quebec. If the yes side gets a 4% lead (and that's far from impossible now that they have momentum), I think that's enough.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: jaichind on September 06, 2014, 07:58:19 PM
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/508353366154833922/photo/1

Latest YouGov poll has Yes ahead by 2%. Wow.  On the other hand I am pretty sure No will win, even if by a small margin.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 06, 2014, 08:03:58 PM
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/508353366154833922/photo/1

Latest YouGov poll has Yes ahead by 2%. Wow.  On the other hand I am pretty sure No will win, even if by a small margin.

Old news around here.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DL on September 06, 2014, 08:05:11 PM

I think that the effect will - rather obviously - be there, but it will be smaller than in Quebec. If the yes side gets a 4% lead (and that's far from impossible now that they have momentum), I think that's enough.


First of all we have ONE poll showing Yes ahead by 2% and another with No ahead by 4%...and "momentum" is a bit of a myth. I have been polling and observing elections/referenda for the last 35 years and for all the talk about momentum and "jumping on a bandwagon" - more often than not when polls show one side surging ahead, the public often has second thoughts and backs away and whoever seemed to have this so-called "momentum" ends up doing a bit worse than predicted when the votes are counted. No one could possibly have LESS "momentum" than Gordon Brown in 2010 and yet look at how much better he did than the final polls all projected...and look at how all of Nick Clegg's momentum turned out to be a wet firecracker the moment the exit polls were announced.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 06, 2014, 08:15:23 PM

I think that the effect will - rather obviously - be there, but it will be smaller than in Quebec. If the yes side gets a 4% lead (and that's far from impossible now that they have momentum), I think that's enough.


First of all we have ONE poll showing Yes ahead by 2% and another with No ahead by 4%...and "momentum" is a bit of a myth. I have been polling and observing elections/referenda for the last 35 years and for all the talk about momentum and "jumping on a bandwagon" - more often than not when polls show one side surging ahead, the public often has second thoughts and backs away and whoever seemed to have this so-called "momentum" ends up doing a bit worse than predicted when the votes are counted. No one could possibly have LESS "momentum" than Gordon Brown in 2010 and yet look at how much better he did than the final polls all projected...and look at how all of Nick Clegg's momentum turned out to be a wet firecracker the moment the exit polls were announced.

Sure momentum is overrated, but it does work sometimes. That wasn't really central to my point. I just said it was quite possible for no to get a 4% lead in the polls and that will IMO be enough in the Scottish case because the two effects you mentioned - uncertainty and "shyness" -  will be smaller than in Quebec. We will see if yes increases enough to make this truly interesting.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Angel of Death on September 06, 2014, 08:33:21 PM
Possibly dumb speculative question, but how much could this latest development possibly be due to anti-UKIP backlash?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: YL on September 07, 2014, 03:01:50 AM
Possibly dumb speculative question, but how much could this latest development possibly be due to anti-UKIP backlash?

It might just be to do with the quirks of YouGov's algorithms.

Personally, if I lived in Scotland the threat of UKIP, their influence on the Tories and the possibility of the UK leaving the EU would indeed be an argument in favour of "Yes".  So I suppose it might be helping the Yes side a bit, but I doubt it's a major factor.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Simfan34 on September 07, 2014, 03:06:10 AM
This too shall pass.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2014, 04:19:40 AM
Turnout looks to be extremely high as well.

On a scale of 0-10, more than 90% (!!!) say that they are a 10 (certain) to vote.

Usually, the "certain" number is pretty much the actual turnout on election day.

I also hope that Scotland has a fail-proof vote counting system in place for election day, in the event that the vote is going to be extremely close.

I don't want a Scottish "Florida-2000" ... :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 07, 2014, 04:33:07 AM
Let's not get ahead of ourselves, Yougov is a weird pollster and a 2 point margin is statistically equivalent to a tie. We're gonna need to see more polls like that before saying it's happening.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2014, 04:41:01 AM
I'd also like to see Scotland beat Germany tonight in the first quali game for the EURO 2016.

;)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 07, 2014, 05:09:14 AM
Urgh, the YouGov poll is the lead story on the BBC News website.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: bore on September 07, 2014, 06:12:00 AM
Bloody hell. Obvious caveats about polling, especially in this race, but still. Blood hell

Oh, and among my friends it is uncool to be a unionist, although that's also true to a lesser extent of enthusiastic yes voters (the sort who filibuster facebook) as well.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Simfan34 on September 07, 2014, 09:40:06 AM
Urgh, the YouGov poll is the lead story on the BBC News website.

Are they trying to split the country?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 07, 2014, 09:53:19 AM
Urgh, the YouGov poll is the lead story on the BBC News website.

Are they trying to split the country?

I think they're trying to report the news. Which is kind of, you know, their duty.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Simfan34 on September 07, 2014, 09:56:42 AM
Urgh, the YouGov poll is the lead story on the BBC News website.

Are they trying to split the country?

I think they're trying to report the news. Which is kind of, you know, their duty.

They needn't be hysterical about it.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 07, 2014, 09:59:13 AM
Urgh, the YouGov poll is the lead story on the BBC News website.

Are they trying to split the country?

I think they're trying to report the news. Which is kind of, you know, their duty.

They needn't be hysterical about it.

So a part of the Union finally and completely splitting off should be reported with what exactly? Yesterday's Cricket results?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Thomas D on September 07, 2014, 10:23:01 AM
Hi, I know I'm late to the party. So if this has already been addressed I'm sorry.

If this passes what impact would it have on the 2015 election?

Is there one party that would be especially hurt if Scotland broke away? 


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Unimog on September 07, 2014, 10:26:55 AM
Labour and LibDem would be hurt, and the SNP damaged badly....


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 07, 2014, 11:17:39 AM
Labour and LibDem would be hurt, and the SNP damaged badly....

Since the break would only become effectual in 2016 SNP would likely have a good election, if they decided to participate at all..


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 07, 2014, 11:33:10 AM
Don't forget "yes" was winning right before the Quebec referendum too.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DL on September 07, 2014, 11:40:43 AM
Don't forget "yes" was winning right before the Quebec referendum too.

...and not just by 2% in one poll that could be an outlier - a whole series of polls had Yes well ahead in Quebec in 1995

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995#Opinion_polling


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 07, 2014, 11:41:28 AM
Don't forget "yes" was winning right before the Quebec referendum too.

Yeah, we discussed it earlier in the thread. The question is if the underpolling ("shy unionist") and unionism being the default option (voting safe when you are in the booth) are as strong as they were in Quebec. I tend to say no to both. "No" will do better than the polls, but no Quebec 1995-style better. But its obvious that "yes" will need a solid lead in the end to actually win. My bid is that a 4% lead will be enough.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 07, 2014, 11:42:18 AM
There are some of my favourite Daily Mail headlines from today.

'Alex Salmond's secretive Saltire-smuggling First Lady (...who is 17 years his senior)' (not mentioned, Alex being 'really fat')

'Why a divorce from Scotland could be the ruin of us all: Mortgages up. Pensions down. The pound in your pocket worth 90p - and you'll even pay more for water' (but how will it affect house prices?)

and my favourite;

'Revealed: The German residents who will vote 'Ja' to Scottish independence (including one Herr Mittler)'

So when is the 'love bomb' happening?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2014, 11:43:43 AM
A slightly off-topic question for the Canadian posters:

What %age of Quebec voters support sovereignity now ?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DL on September 07, 2014, 11:54:07 AM
A slightly off-topic question for the Canadian posters:

What %age of Quebec voters support sovereignity now ?

It has fallen dramatically in recent years and now only about 30-35% would vote Yes in another referendum. The pro-independence Bloc Quebecois was annhilated in the last federal election going from 50 out of 75 Quebec seats in Ottawa to just 4...and then the PQ was crushed in the provincial election election this spring largely because people were afraid they would call another referendum. Its always risky to say "separatism is dead", but the conventional wisdom is that the whole Quebec independence movement is now on life support and is only a past time of an age cohort of baby boomers who associate with with their glory days in the 1970s.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 07, 2014, 11:58:52 AM
Good article on the reasons "yes" is gaining with focus on SNP neutralising "the fear factor", especially among Labour-supporters.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scottish-independence-no-vote-alex-salmond-second-referendum (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scottish-independence-no-vote-alex-salmond-second-referendum)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: CJK on September 07, 2014, 12:19:42 PM
It is interesting to me how much traction this is getting considering just how loyal Scotland has historically been to England. Scotland has always contributed disproportionate troops in British wars, including the American Revolution.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: EPG on September 07, 2014, 12:21:56 PM
So did Ireland... The explanation is to follow the money. Both countries had large classes of rich landowners (officers) and landless peasants (privates).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Zanas on September 07, 2014, 12:26:57 PM
This whole thing reminds me of our 2005 European Constitution referendum, only the outsider camp's lead (the NO in our case) came in quite a bit earlier. Even so, if three other polls show the Yes with more than a 2-pt lead before election day, I will believe in secession. Otherwise, it's still Lean No structurally.

Oh and momentum do exist. It's not a guaranteed thing, but in the mentioned example of France 2005, or more recently Canada 2011, polling had a great influence on the final results, IMO. This might just be another occurrence of this.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 07, 2014, 12:27:59 PM
It is interesting to me how much traction this is getting considering just how loyal Scotland has historically been to England. Scotland has always contributed disproportionate troops in British wars, including the American Revolution.


Empire is a keyword here.

Scotland joined the union in 1707 to get a share in the empire and contributed disproportionally to the expansion and running of the empire in almost any field (soldiers, missionaries, engineers,   trappers, sailors etc.) and benefitted a lot from the imperial economy . After the dissolution of the empire it became much less obvious why Scotland should be in union with England.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2014, 12:39:51 PM
If anything here comes close to the Scottish situation right now, it would be the 1978 Austrian referendum on the Nuclear Power Plant Zwentendorf, with polls showing voters supported the NPP by a 2:1 margin when the campaign started.

In the end (with the plant already built and about to be started), the voters rejected it by a 50.5-49.5 margin, a stunning defeat for Chancellor Kreisky (a Socialist). Kreisky, a year later, won the biggest landslide for the Socialist party with 51%, something which has never been achieved ...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 07, 2014, 01:07:07 PM
A slightly off-topic question for the Canadian posters:

What %age of Quebec voters support sovereignity now ?

It has fallen dramatically in recent years and now only about 30-35% would vote Yes in another referendum. The pro-independence Bloc Quebecois was annhilated in the last federal election going from 50 out of 75 Quebec seats in Ottawa to just 4...and then the PQ was crushed in the provincial election election this spring largely because people were afraid they would call another referendum. Its always risky to say "separatism is dead", but the conventional wisdom is that the whole Quebec independence movement is now on life support and is only a past time of an age cohort of baby boomers who associate with with their glory days in the 1970s.

Separatism was supposedly dead at certain points in the early 1990s as well.

One huge difference between the Scottish and Quebec referendums is the question wording. The Scottish wording is very direct, and makes independence clear. Quebec's question was very vague and convoluted.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on September 07, 2014, 01:10:32 PM
Scotland is very different to Quebec. For a start, there's no language issue (and so no really obvious large 95%-No-voting demographic).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ilikeverin on September 07, 2014, 01:11:14 PM
A slightly off-topic question for the Canadian posters:

What %age of Quebec voters support sovereignity now ?

It has fallen dramatically in recent years and now only about 30-35% would vote Yes in another referendum. The pro-independence Bloc Quebecois was annhilated in the last federal election going from 50 out of 75 Quebec seats in Ottawa to just 4...and then the PQ was crushed in the provincial election election this spring largely because people were afraid they would call another referendum. Its always risky to say "separatism is dead", but the conventional wisdom is that the whole Quebec independence movement is now on life support and is only a past time of an age cohort of baby boomers who associate with with their glory days in the 1970s.

Separatism was supposedly dead at certain points in the early 1990s as well.

One huge difference between the Scottish and Quebec referendums is the question wording. The Scottish wording is very direct, and makes independence clear. Quebec's question was very vague and convoluted.

Oh, I'm sure it wasn't too—

Quote
Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership within the scope of the bill respecting the future of Quebec and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995?

wat


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 07, 2014, 01:16:02 PM
Scotland is very different to Quebec. For a start, there's no language issue (and so no really obvious large 95%-No-voting demographic).

You got a Tory 97% No-voting demographic. You could considder them the Anglophones of Scotland ;) (granted they are only 10%, not 20%).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 07, 2014, 01:23:29 PM
It is interesting to me how much traction this is getting considering just how loyal Scotland has historically been to England.

This is a misunderstanding of the situation; Scotland was not an English possession but joined the Union as a comparatively equal partner ('comparatively' due to the vast population disparity). The old ideology of Scottish Unionism was effectively a form of Scottish Nationalism; by being united with England, Scotland could benefit from the growth of Empire (and indeed it did so disproportionately). Scotland retained (amongst other things) separate legal, administrative, religious and educational systems and also kept its monetary peculiarities.1 Scottish interests would be protected at Westminster by a larger cohort of Scottish MPs than its population strictly deserved. Notably the Conservatives in Scotland were organised as a separate political party (the Scottish Unionists) until the 1960s. This system started breaking down in the postwar decades as the twin pillars of the Scottish economy (Empire & related sundries and heavy industry) began to crumble, while the political calculus was permanently changed by the discovery of North Sea Oil. The situation was changed further (if inadvertently) by the Thatcher government, which had a new and shocking lack of respect for Scottish interests.2 This led to a crisis of confidence in the Union that has never really abated; devolution has not sated this - as was hoped by the Blair government - but probably made matters a good deal more civilised; Scotland and the rest of Britain have at least been spared the 1918 General Election in Ireland scenario.

1. It has its own banknotes which are printed by individual banks. In many respects Scotland feels like a palpably different country to England in a way that Wales - road signs aside - does not.

2. Or at least that was how most Scots saw things, and that's what's relevant here.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 07, 2014, 01:49:20 PM
Scottish banknotes don't tend to be recognised in English shops, BTW.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 07, 2014, 02:38:13 PM
This led to a crisis of confidence in the Union that has never really abated; devolution has not sated this - as was hoped by the Blair government - but probably made matters a good deal more civilised; Scotland and the rest of Britain have at least been spared the 1918 General Election in Ireland scenario.

There's a crisis in Scottish party politics too. When Scottish Unionist dominance gave way to that of the Labour Party (not that Labour have actually expanded or at least until 2011, contracted in the geographical areas where it has been strong since the 30's) it was actually fairly seamless because strictly speaking there wasn't much between them. It was certainly less of a shock, though it's often forgotten, than the decline of the Liberals.

The problem today is a difficulity in determining what 'British' means in a political context. Labour were the party of devolution only in the sense they delivered it. Once they delivered it, there was a reluctance to do anything with it, even in comparison to the party in Wales under similar but more restrictive circumstances. Anything remotely 'radical' from 1999-2007 was thanks to the Liberal Democrats. The first sense something was wrong was the rise of the SSP even though it was a short lived experiment in vanity.

Now we have the SNP. On paper, they should be very easy to take down. They lack any coherent ideology or even consistency. You have the entire Scottish press at their necks to the extent the only cordial relationship they can manage is with the Scottish editions of the London press.

What the SNP does today, is provide a safety net for the Scottish electorate which allows them to wait for the inevitable sh-tstorm to kick off in the closing weeks and like fireworks going off at the factory, let their opposition burn out leaving the SNP blemish free. In the last days of the 2007 and 2011 campaigns Alex Salmond did something no other politician does; he dissappears. It's happening again, since the second debate some two weeks ago you've hardly seen a peep out of him. It gives his opponents the airtime and even sycophantic press after a while get bored of the narrative. So divisions are highlighted and so on. The close of the last two Scottish campaigns have seen politicians hang themselves by the rope he's left. It's possible it might be happening again.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 07, 2014, 02:54:09 PM
A slightly off-topic question for the Canadian posters:

What %age of Quebec voters support sovereignity now ?

It has fallen dramatically in recent years and now only about 30-35% would vote Yes in another referendum. The pro-independence Bloc Quebecois was annhilated in the last federal election going from 50 out of 75 Quebec seats in Ottawa to just 4...and then the PQ was crushed in the provincial election election this spring largely because people were afraid they would call another referendum. Its always risky to say "separatism is dead", but the conventional wisdom is that the whole Quebec independence movement is now on life support and is only a past time of an age cohort of baby boomers who associate with with their glory days in the 1970s.

Separatism was supposedly dead at certain points in the early 1990s as well.

One huge difference between the Scottish and Quebec referendums is the question wording. The Scottish wording is very direct, and makes independence clear. Quebec's question was very vague and convoluted.

Oh, I'm sure it wasn't too—

Quote
Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership within the scope of the bill respecting the future of Quebec and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995?

wat

That's nothing compared to the text of the 1980 referendum question:

The Government of Quebec has made public its proposal to negotiate a new agreement with the rest of Canada, based on the equality of nations; this agreement would enable Quebec to acquire the exclusive power to make its laws, levy its taxes and establish relations abroad - in other words, sovereignty - and at the same time to maintain with Canada an economic association including a common currency; any change in political status resulting from these negotiations will only be implemented with popular approval through another referendum; on these terms, do you give the Government of Quebec the mandate to negotiate the proposed agreement between Quebec and Canada?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 07, 2014, 02:59:55 PM
For fun here are the polls for the 1997 Devolution Referendum

Yes/No/DK

19 Jun 72-22-6
22 Aug 72-22-6
7 Sep 60-25-15
10 Sep 63-25-12
11 Sep (Actual) 74.2-25.7

On tax varying powers it passed 63.5 to 36.5. The last poll had it 48-40-12


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on September 07, 2014, 03:06:24 PM
It is interesting to me how much traction this is getting considering just how loyal Scotland has historically been to England. Scotland has always contributed disproportionate troops in British wars, including the American Revolution.

As well as the factors already stated: at the time of the American Revolution, being in the British Army was the only way of legally wearing the traditional Highland dress.

Scottish banknotes don't tend to be recognised in English shops, BTW.

Depends where you are.  Places in England where lots of Scots go, like Carlisle or Blackpool, don't have a problem with Scottish notes.  You can get away with them at most places in Greater Manchester.  London and the south, on the other hand, doesn't like Scottish notes at all.

(Back in the mists of time, one reason why the twelve-sided brass 3d coin was introduced is that southerners didn't like the tiny silver 3d, although it was popular in Scotland.)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 07, 2014, 03:09:37 PM
A slightly off-topic question for the Canadian posters:

What %age of Quebec voters support sovereignity now ?

It has fallen dramatically in recent years and now only about 30-35% would vote Yes in another referendum. The pro-independence Bloc Quebecois was annihilated in the last federal election going from 50 out of 75 Quebec seats in Ottawa to just 4...and then the PQ was crushed in the provincial election election this spring largely because people were afraid they would call another referendum. Its always risky to say "separatism is dead", but the conventional wisdom is that the whole Quebec independence movement is now on life support and is only a past time of an age cohort of baby boomers who associate with with their glory days in the 1970s.

Separatism was supposedly dead at certain points in the early 1990s as well.

One huge difference between the Scottish and Quebec referendums is the question wording. The Scottish wording is very direct, and makes independence clear. Quebec's question was very vague and convoluted.

Oh, I'm sure it wasn't too—

Quote
Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership within the scope of the bill respecting the future of Quebec and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995?

wat

That's nothing compared to the text of the 1980 referendum question:

The Government of Quebec has made public its proposal to negotiate a new agreement with the rest of Canada, based on the equality of nations; this agreement would enable Quebec to acquire the exclusive power to make its laws, levy its taxes and establish relations abroad - in other words, sovereignty - and at the same time to maintain with Canada an economic association including a common currency; any change in political status resulting from these negotiations will only be implemented with popular approval through another referendum; on these terms, do you give the Government of Quebec the mandate to negotiate the proposed agreement between Quebec and Canada?

The 1980 text is longer, but it is a lot clearer what it is talking about. The 1995 text refers to so many things - and on different levels - that it is virtually impossible to figure out what it actually means - and it seems to be contradicting itself.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 07, 2014, 03:09:48 PM
Scotland tie against the world champs in Germany!


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 07, 2014, 03:14:57 PM
It is interesting to me how much traction this is getting considering just how loyal Scotland has historically been to England.

This is a misunderstanding of the situation; Scotland was not an English possession but joined the Union as a comparatively equal partner ('comparatively' due to the vast population disparity). The old ideology of Scottish Unionism was effectively a form of Scottish Nationalism; by being united with England, Scotland could benefit from the growth of Empire (and indeed it did so disproportionately). Scotland retained (amongst other things) separate legal, administrative, religious and educational systems and also kept its monetary peculiarities.1 Scottish interests would be protected at Westminster by a larger cohort of Scottish MPs than its population strictly deserved. Notably the Conservatives in Scotland were organised as a separate political party (the Scottish Unionists) until the 1960s. This system started breaking down in the postwar decades as the twin pillars of the Scottish economy (Empire & related sundries and heavy industry) began to crumble, while the political calculus was permanently changed by the discovery of North Sea Oil. The situation was changed further (if inadvertently) by the Thatcher government, which had a new and shocking lack of respect for Scottish interests.2 This led to a crisis of confidence in the Union that has never really abated; devolution has not sated this - as was hoped by the Blair government - but probably made matters a good deal more civilised; Scotland and the rest of Britain have at least been spared the 1918 General Election in Ireland scenario.

1. It has its own banknotes which are printed by individual banks. In many respects Scotland feels like a palpably different country to England in a way that Wales - road signs aside - does not.

2. Or at least that was how most Scots saw things, and that's what's relevant here.


A lot of Scotland joining was because of their failure to establish the colony of Darien in Panama. They seemed to have picked a bad place; that area still doesn't have a road connecting North and South America.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Harry Hayfield on September 07, 2014, 03:16:22 PM
Scotland tie against the world champs in Germany!

That could make life a little interesting


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Cassius on September 07, 2014, 03:17:36 PM
It also helped, that the Scottish Stuarts had ruled Britain one century long before 1704 (as the Welsh were proud of "their" Tudors). And Scotland was incredibly poor 300 years ago, immediately benefitting economically from the union. And that in the era of "the divine David [HUME]" England was intellectually a colony of his northern neighbours.

I don't think you can say that the Stuarts were especially 'popular' in Scotland; indeed, during the reign of Charles I in particular, they were (or he was) very unpopular (mind you, he alienated just about everybody in the Three Kingdoms, but nevermind...). Even the Scottish support that they received during the Jacobite uprisings (which did form the mainstay of them to be fair) was limited geographically (largely in the areas of Scotland where Catholicism was still predominant). Indeed, during the Rising of 1745, large numbers of Scottish troops fought against the Jacobites.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ObserverIE on September 07, 2014, 03:26:14 PM
Scotland is very different to Quebec. For a start, there's no language issue (and so no really obvious large 95%-No-voting demographic).

You got a Tory 97% No-voting demographic. You could considder them the Anglophones of Scotland ;) (granted they are only 10%, not 20%).

A Scottish PQ analogue would be preoccupied with Catholic- and Celtic supporter-baiting and channeling the Church of Scotland's report on The Menace of the Irish Race to our Scottish Nationality. The SNP have made sure to avoid the paranoid stuff about McGill students taking over Francophone swimming pools that the Marois PQ were so fond of.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 07, 2014, 03:27:42 PM
It also helped, that the Scottish Stuarts had ruled Britain one century long before 1704 (as the Welsh were proud of "their" Tudors). And Scotland was incredibly poor 300 years ago, immediately benefitting economically from the union. And that in the era of "the divine David [HUME]" England was intellectually a colony of his northern neighbours.

I don't think you can say that the Stuarts were especially 'popular' in Scotland; indeed, during the reign of Charles I in particular, they were (or he was) very unpopular (mind you, he alienated just about everybody in the Three Kingdoms, but nevermind...). Even the Scottish support that they received during the Jacobite uprisings (which did form the mainstay of them to be fair) was limited geographically (largely in the areas of Scotland where Catholicism was still predominant). Indeed, during the Rising of 1745, large numbers of Scottish troops fought against the Jacobites.

Regardless of Stewart un-popularity, much of that became a moot point when the Commonwealth took the step of beheading Charles I without any discussion with Scotland of which he was also king. Again in 1701, the Act of Succession passed by the English Parlimant settled on whom should succeed Queen Anne, the eventual last Stewart monarch without consulting Scotland. We passed the Act of Security in response which was met by the Alien Act which threatened Scotland with restricted movement of people and trade unless we made steps towards a formal Act of Union. And so it was.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ilikeverin on September 07, 2014, 04:15:07 PM
Scottish banknotes don't tend to be recognised in English shops, BTW.

Depends where you are.  Places in England where lots of Scots go, like Carlisle or Blackpool, don't have a problem with Scottish notes.  You can get away with them at most places in Greater Manchester.  London and the south, on the other hand, doesn't like Scottish notes at all.

Well, if the "no" vote wins, you guys cut that out.  Very confusing for tourists.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 07, 2014, 04:43:53 PM
()


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Joe Republic on September 07, 2014, 04:53:55 PM
What will be the future of the SNP in an independent Scotland?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Thomas D on September 07, 2014, 04:54:33 PM
Pffft...Drama queen.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 07, 2014, 06:20:25 PM
Why would a boundary dispute of the Middle Ages be a problem today? I suppose it would be a bit of a bugger for the town's football club (who play in the Scottish system), mind.

What will be the future of the SNP in an independent Scotland?

They would attempt to become Fianna Fail Alba (more or less). Whether they'd be successful in that is impossible to tell.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 07, 2014, 07:31:53 PM
Local news silliness.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Famous Mortimer on September 07, 2014, 09:14:50 PM
"No" will probably still win but just for poos and giggles, what do ya'll think the party system would look like in an independent Scotland?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Јas on September 08, 2014, 04:18:58 AM
I suppose it would be a bit of a bugger for the town's football club (who play in the Scottish system), mind.

Shouldn't be insurmountable though...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_association_football_clubs_playing_in_the_league_of_another_country


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 08, 2014, 06:11:14 AM
What will be the future of the SNP in an independent Scotland?

They would attempt to become Fianna Fail Alba (more or less). Whether they'd be successful in that is impossible to tell.

The SNP will sweep all before it in 2016 but without Salmond at the helm (he'll find something else to do) Nicola Sturgeon will lead and become the first FM. It will have a dominant hand in shaping the country. It will probably win in 2021. You're probably right that they will try and be a Scottish 'Fianna Fail'. One party always dominates Scotland and it has shifted from the early 20th Century from Liberal to Unionist to Labour and potentially now to the SNP. If the party holds together it may dominate politics for a generation. The electoral system however might make it the largest party, but the other parties can challenge if they come together.

Labour will suffer in the short term. Lamont will go. The Holyrood wing and the Westminster wing hate each other and will jostle for influence (and seats) in the 2016 election. Might do worse than they did in 2011. After that point, I think they will pick up. However in order to challenge the SNP they might find themselves having to go into some sort of coalition with the Conservatives (think Fine Gael/Labour but reversed in strength) and smaller liberal/green parties. I used to think the SNP would take their place to Labour's right post independence but I think they might sit more socially 'left' initially.

The Liberal Democrats start at such a low point that they will rebrand. Might stumble on for a few elections but given that their vote moved en masse to the SNP in 2011 and probably won't come back, the party might fold.

The Conservatives will get over the result; Ruth Davidson will step aside for Murdo Fraser and position themselves into the biggest cheerleader for the free market and probably become a little more socially conservative. Might actually start to recover.

The Greens will have a good election in 2016 but will remain a hostage to the fortunes of the larger parties.

Tommy Sheridan will be back. We'd see how long he lasts.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2014, 06:12:33 AM
The September-surprise:

Quote
Prince William and Kate expecting second child

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29108010


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 08, 2014, 06:47:44 AM
The September-surprise:

Quote
Prince William and Kate expecting second child

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29108010

Yeah, this is actually insulting now. I hope there is massive backlash.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 08, 2014, 07:06:16 AM
The September-surprise:

Quote
Prince William and Kate expecting second child

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29108010

I despise the royal family in every way imaginable.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Cassius on September 08, 2014, 07:19:10 AM
The September-surprise:

Quote
Prince William and Kate expecting second child

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29108010

Yeah, this is actually insulting now. I hope there is massive backlash.

Oh come on, there's three lines about it expressing a not that unreasonable viewpoint. Over the next couple of days, its likely that this news will briefly overshadow the current furore over the referendum (and possibly give 'no' a small breathing space).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 08, 2014, 07:28:23 AM
The September-surprise:

Quote
Prince William and Kate expecting second child

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29108010

Yeah, this is actually insulting now. I hope there is massive backlash.

Oh come on, there's three lines about it expressing a not that unreasonable viewpoint. Over the next couple of days, its likely that this news will briefly overshadow the current furore over the referendum (and possibly give 'no' a small breathing space).

...I'm saying that the decision to announce by the Royal Family is shameful because we know the motive behind the timing. You know the timing of this stuff is so thoroughly planned and it's no coincidence that it comes just over a week before the vote.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Simfan34 on September 08, 2014, 07:50:37 AM
Shut up, the two of you.

Also realize Scotland would keep the monarchy even if they voted for independence.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Knives on September 08, 2014, 07:59:03 AM
Really crass of the royals, she hasn't even passed 12 weeks.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on September 08, 2014, 08:07:02 AM
I love it when people see conspiracies everywhere. :D Of course Kate and William thouroughly planned their sex-life to have a new baby on the way just a week before the referendum to make sure that their future United Kingdom stays united. There can be no ther logicall explination, especially considering the fact that Scotland will keep the monarchy no matter what. :P   


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ObserverIE on September 08, 2014, 09:37:31 AM
I love it when people see conspiracies everywhere. :D Of course Kate and William thouroughly planned their sex-life to have a new baby on the way just a week before the referendum to make sure that their future United Kingdom stays united. There can be no ther logicall explination, especially considering the fact that Scotland will keep the monarchy no matter what. :P  

"Lie back and think of England", as the old cliche goes. 8)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 08, 2014, 11:22:52 AM
Considering that none of you are Scottish there is perhaps such a thing as being too invested? :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 08, 2014, 11:35:40 AM
Considering that none of you are Scottish there is perhaps such a thing as being too invested? :P

We all watched Braveheart and we obviously want Payback for what they did to Mel Gibson.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Oakvale on September 08, 2014, 11:40:17 AM
The September-surprise:

Quote
Prince William and Kate expecting second child

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29108010

Yeah, this is actually insulting now. I hope there is massive backlash.

Oh come on, there's three lines about it expressing a not that unreasonable viewpoint. Over the next couple of days, its likely that this news will briefly overshadow the current furore over the referendum (and possibly give 'no' a small breathing space).

...I'm saying that the decision to announce by the Royal Family is shameful because we know the motive behind the timing. You know the timing of this stuff is so thoroughly planned and it's no coincidence that it comes just over a week before the vote.

Yes, this. Laughable really.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 08, 2014, 01:06:06 PM
So Brown seems to be taking over Better Together. Not sure that's a good idea from their POV; the SNP majority in 2011, as afleitch pointed out some time ago, was a delayed reaction to the Brown government.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 08, 2014, 02:18:11 PM
TNS, with changes on last poll from them

Yes 50 (+8)
No 50 (-8)

Fieldwork: 27th August to 4 September.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: YL on September 08, 2014, 03:18:09 PM
That TNS poll has a weirdly high number of undecideds compared with other recent polls: the full figures are No 39 Yes 38 Don't Know 23.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Lurker on September 08, 2014, 03:26:57 PM
This is looking pretty damn bad for the "no" side...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: sirius3100 on September 08, 2014, 05:30:04 PM
That TNS poll has a weirdly high number of undecideds compared with other recent polls: the full figures are No 39 Yes 38 Don't Know 23.
Perhaps their methodology is different? They might state that you have 3 options as anwers (Yes/No/Don't Know), while the other pollsters don't mention the don't know option before asking. Or the other pollsters might ask again for a clear yes or no if one initially answers with a don't know.

Or maybe they just group don't know and won't vote together? I can't check the study though at the moment. The page doesn't load for me.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DC Al Fine on September 08, 2014, 05:53:21 PM
What will be the future of the SNP in an independent Scotland?

They would attempt to become Fianna Fail Alba (more or less). Whether they'd be successful in that is impossible to tell.

The SNP will sweep all before it in 2016 but without Salmond at the helm (he'll find something else to do) Nicola Sturgeon will lead and become the first FM. It will have a dominant hand in shaping the country. It will probably win in 2021. You're probably right that they will try and be a Scottish 'Fianna Fail'. One party always dominates Scotland and it has shifted from the early 20th Century from Liberal to Unionist to Labour and potentially now to the SNP. If the party holds together it may dominate politics for a generation. The electoral system however might make it the largest party, but the other parties can challenge if they come together.

Labour will suffer in the short term. Lamont will go. The Holyrood wing and the Westminster wing hate each other and will jostle for influence (and seats) in the 2016 election. Might do worse than they did in 2011. After that point, I think they will pick up. However in order to challenge the SNP they might find themselves having to go into some sort of coalition with the Conservatives (think Fine Gael/Labour but reversed in strength) and smaller liberal/green parties. I used to think the SNP would take their place to Labour's right post independence but I think they might sit more socially 'left' initially.

The Liberal Democrats start at such a low point that they will rebrand. Might stumble on for a few elections but given that their vote moved en masse to the SNP in 2011 and probably won't come back, the party might fold.

The Conservatives will get over the result; Ruth Davidson will step aside for Murdo Fraser and position themselves into the biggest cheerleader for the free market and probably become a little more socially conservative. Might actually start to recover.

The Greens will have a good election in 2016 but will remain a hostage to the fortunes of the larger parties.

Tommy Sheridan will be back. We'd see how long he lasts.

Has there been any talk of the electoral system post-independence? Would it essentially be the same as the current Scottish Parliament's elections or something completely different?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DC Al Fine on September 08, 2014, 05:55:56 PM
Oh ftr, the two polls done the day before the Quebec referendum both showed the Yes side with a 6 pt lead. In that case, the Yes side barely lost. I think that's a reasonable cutoff IMO. If Yes starts flirting with 5-6% leads, they'll take it.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 08, 2014, 06:06:33 PM
Oh ftr, the two polls done the day before the Quebec referendum both showed the Yes side with a 6 pt lead. In that case, the Yes side barely lost. I think that's a reasonable cutoff IMO. If Yes starts flirting with 5-6% leads, they'll take it.

This assumes that Quebec and Scotland are identical cases regarding underpolling of unionism/federalism and that the effect of unionism being the default option (voting safe when you are in the booth) is as strong as it was in Quebec. I tend to say no to both. "No" will do better than the polls, but not Quebec 1995-style better.

(forgive me from sounding like a broken record on this, but every Canadian poster seems to argue this point without looking at the previous pages since DL brought it up)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 08, 2014, 06:31:43 PM
What will be the future of the SNP in an independent Scotland?

They would attempt to become Fianna Fail Alba (more or less). Whether they'd be successful in that is impossible to tell.

The SNP will sweep all before it in 2016 but without Salmond at the helm (he'll find something else to do) Nicola Sturgeon will lead and become the first FM. It will have a dominant hand in shaping the country. It will probably win in 2021. You're probably right that they will try and be a Scottish 'Fianna Fail'. One party always dominates Scotland and it has shifted from the early 20th Century from Liberal to Unionist to Labour and potentially now to the SNP. If the party holds together it may dominate politics for a generation. The electoral system however might make it the largest party, but the other parties can challenge if they come together.

Labour will suffer in the short term. Lamont will go. The Holyrood wing and the Westminster wing hate each other and will jostle for influence (and seats) in the 2016 election. Might do worse than they did in 2011. After that point, I think they will pick up. However in order to challenge the SNP they might find themselves having to go into some sort of coalition with the Conservatives (think Fine Gael/Labour but reversed in strength) and smaller liberal/green parties. I used to think the SNP would take their place to Labour's right post independence but I think they might sit more socially 'left' initially.

The Liberal Democrats start at such a low point that they will rebrand. Might stumble on for a few elections but given that their vote moved en masse to the SNP in 2011 and probably won't come back, the party might fold.

The Conservatives will get over the result; Ruth Davidson will step aside for Murdo Fraser and position themselves into the biggest cheerleader for the free market and probably become a little more socially conservative. Might actually start to recover.

The Greens will have a good election in 2016 but will remain a hostage to the fortunes of the larger parties.

Tommy Sheridan will be back. We'd see how long he lasts.

I wonder if we'll see a UKIP-esque populist right-wing party grow in Scotland. After all, they do talk about wanting to be like the Scandinavians - what could be more Scandinavian than a raging right-wing group hovering in the background?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Gary J on September 08, 2014, 06:40:50 PM
Quote
Has there been any talk of the electoral system post-independence? Would it essentially be the same as the current Scottish Parliament's elections or something completely different?

I have not noticed anything, although I am in southern England so I might not have seen it.

Presumably a yes vote, would be followed by some negotiations over the terms of disunion. The independence constitution might be negotiated during that process, but I would suspect that Scotland would prefer as little interference as possible from the rest of the UK.

The Scottish Liberal Democrats have suggested a constitutional convention, with representatives of all the parties and civil society groups in Scotland. This was modelled on the body which came up with the current devolution arrangements (which notably was boycotted by the SNP). The existing convention proposal is related to changes within the union, but there is no reason why it could not be used to draft an independence constitution if there has been a yes vote on independence.

Such a body would not be likely to make major changes to the existing Scottish Parliament electoral system.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 08, 2014, 07:00:54 PM
Perhaps their methodology is different?

Yes, they do face-to-face interviews.

Recent-to-Recentish TNS polls, today's in bold:

No 39, Yes 38
No 45, Yes 32
No 41, Yes 32
No 46, Yes 32
No 42, Yes 30
No 42, Yes 30
No 41, Yes 29


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Gary J on September 08, 2014, 07:05:23 PM
I found some material on page 352 of the Scottish government's document about ''Scotland's Future''. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00439021.pdf (http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00439021.pdf)

Quote
We propose that Scotland’s independence day should be on
24 March 2016. The first election in an independent Scotland
will then take place on 5 May 2016
■ Between the referendum and independence, we will put in place
the initial constitutional platform for independence and
the arrangements for the transfer of powers to Scotland
■ The legislation on independence will place a duty on the
Scottish Parliament elected in 2016 to establish a constitutional
convention to prepare the permanent written constitution of
Scotland

The SNP definitely want the constitution to be wholly made in Scotland. The 'initial constitutional platform' would presumably be drawn up by the existing Scottish Parliament dominated by the SNP. Nothing is said about the electoral system to be used in 2016.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 08, 2014, 07:16:14 PM
What will be the future of the SNP in an independent Scotland?

They would attempt to become Fianna Fail Alba (more or less). Whether they'd be successful in that is impossible to tell.

The SNP will sweep all before it in 2016 but without Salmond at the helm (he'll find something else to do) Nicola Sturgeon will lead and become the first FM. It will have a dominant hand in shaping the country. It will probably win in 2021. You're probably right that they will try and be a Scottish 'Fianna Fail'. One party always dominates Scotland and it has shifted from the early 20th Century from Liberal to Unionist to Labour and potentially now to the SNP. If the party holds together it may dominate politics for a generation. The electoral system however might make it the largest party, but the other parties can challenge if they come together.

Labour will suffer in the short term. Lamont will go. The Holyrood wing and the Westminster wing hate each other and will jostle for influence (and seats) in the 2016 election. Might do worse than they did in 2011. After that point, I think they will pick up. However in order to challenge the SNP they might find themselves having to go into some sort of coalition with the Conservatives (think Fine Gael/Labour but reversed in strength) and smaller liberal/green parties. I used to think the SNP would take their place to Labour's right post independence but I think they might sit more socially 'left' initially.

The Liberal Democrats start at such a low point that they will rebrand. Might stumble on for a few elections but given that their vote moved en masse to the SNP in 2011 and probably won't come back, the party might fold.

The Conservatives will get over the result; Ruth Davidson will step aside for Murdo Fraser and position themselves into the biggest cheerleader for the free market and probably become a little more socially conservative. Might actually start to recover.

The Greens will have a good election in 2016 but will remain a hostage to the fortunes of the larger parties.

Tommy Sheridan will be back. We'd see how long he lasts.

I wonder if we'll see a UKIP-esque populist right-wing party grow in Scotland. After all, they do talk about wanting to be like the Scandinavians - what could be more Scandinavian than a raging right-wing group hovering in the background?

A Scottish right wing populist party would presumably be more of a DPP/Sweden Democrats type with anti-immigration + law and order being combined with strong support for a welfare state. I fail to see anything UKIP style or even a parallel to the Norwegian Progress Party being successful.

But presumably both euroscepticism and integration problems would need to be larger for this to happen. Scottish Muslims, notably Pakistanis, seems to be relatively well integrated and Islamophobia is the bread and butter of modern rightwing populism in Europe


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 08, 2014, 08:26:54 PM
Can someone explain what the Yes/SNP proposal for the currency is? As far as I can see, there are roughly three senses in which an independent Scotland might "use the pound", and I'm a bit unclear as to which is being proposed:

(1) Scotland uses the pound and shares a joint central bank with the UK that controls the supply of pounds, i.e. a new body like the Monetary Committee of the Bank of England is formed and jointly appointed from Westminster and Holyrood. This is how the Euro works.
(2) Scotland just uses the pound without any such official arrangement with the Bank of England.
(3) Scotland has its own pound but its value is pegged to the pound sterling, as for example the Danish krone is pegged to the Euro.



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Boris on September 08, 2014, 09:30:30 PM
I don't think #2 is feasible. Would the European Commission even allow Scotland's accession to the EU with a Sweden-esque defacto opt out of ERM II?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 08, 2014, 09:39:33 PM

If I understand correctly, there are a few countries (Ecuador, Panama, El Salvador) where US dollars literally circulate as legal tender, not just a local dollar-pegged currency. Where they get the banknotes, though, I'm not clear.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Paleobrazilian on September 08, 2014, 10:12:28 PM

If I understand correctly, there are a few countries (Ecuador, Panama, El Salvador) where US dollars literally circulate as legal tender, not just a local dollar-pegged currency. Where they get the banknotes, though, I'm not clear.

They have to keep dollars pumping into their economies. Ecuador does that by exporting oil and fruits. Panama through its Channel. This scheme of dollarization keeps inflation in check but makes growth very slow as it's limited to the amount of dollars coming in.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Meeker on September 08, 2014, 10:39:06 PM
Having only paid attention to this on and off over the past few years, can someone knowledgable explain why Cameron agreed to recognize the legitimacy of this vote at all?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Foucaulf on September 08, 2014, 10:48:52 PM
As far as I can tell, the Yes campaign has faith Scotland will keep the pound. Salmond either says he will negotiate a currency union with England, or threaten to renege (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/07/scotland-pound-independence-alex-salmond) on Scottish government debt denominated in pounds. Barring that, during the transition period they'll rely on 2).

Let us assume that no English party would accept a currency union, and that Scotland will find it irrational to block off trade as a threat (only to watch their economy burn). The big decision is between choosing to have sterling reserves circulate in the economy or convert to a currency pegged to the pound. The latter option seems the most sustainable - Scotland won't have an independent monetary policy otherwise. In fact, since a new Scotland wouldn't be crippled on the bond markets they ought to do this sooner or later.

The real question is: when will Scotland transition to a new currency? Will they allow their unofficial sterling reserves to circulate and try to get extra currency through oil exports for as long as they can? The government responsible for a currency transition will find heavy resistance, as a public confused about the new currency's credibility may hoard or try to divest. A central bank would essentially have to swap pounds in bank/saver reserves for the new currency, and then commit to a fixed exchange rate and trade their sterling reserves accordingly. I think economists underestimate how this process can descend into chaos quickly.


Here are some talking heads in the Financial Times debating the options.  (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/e635505a-328f-11e4-a5a2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3CHk4UBmi)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 09, 2014, 06:06:09 AM
Been a while since politicians displayed such open panic about something.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 09, 2014, 07:02:50 AM
PMQs were cancelled so the Big Three can go to Scotland to campaign? And that's supposed to help the No campaign?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 09, 2014, 07:05:51 AM
PMQs were cancelled so the Big Three can go to Scotland to campaign? And that's supposed to help the No campaign?

Miliband's one thing, but Cameron and Clegg should be as far away from Scotland as they physically can be.

Also, I've just seen on the news that Ed was with Mayor Joe in Liverpool campaigning for Better Together. There's 10 days left, what a waste of time! They should be camped out north of the border by now anyway.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2014, 07:46:30 AM
PMQs were cancelled so the Big Three can go to Scotland to campaign? And that's supposed to help the No campaign?

Miliband's one thing, but Cameron and Clegg should be as far away from Scotland as they physically can be.


Agreed. Surely Cameron isn't stupid enough to go there?

Nigel Farage is going as well, to a UKIP rally in Scotland on September 12. Not a good idea.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Paleobrazilian on September 09, 2014, 08:00:19 AM
If Scotland votes yes, will Miliband fall?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Gass3268 on September 09, 2014, 08:09:53 AM
If Scotland vote yes, there is no way they'd get into the EU or NATO, right? I cannot see the UK (or whatever they would be called), Spain, or any other national with a secessionist movement allowing them in either group.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Velasco on September 09, 2014, 08:24:49 AM
If Scotland vote yes, there is no way they'd get into the EU or NATO, right? I cannot see the UK (or whatever they would be called), Spain, or any other national with a secessionist movement allowing them in either group.

Spain will not oppose the entry of an independent Scotland in the EU.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/02/03/inenglish/1391425089_214995.html

Quote
Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel García-Margallo has stated that should Scotland elect to break away from the United Kingdom, Spain will not oppose the move because it does not have any bearing on the internal affairs of the country. “If the Constitution of the United Kingdom permits – and it seems that it does – that Scotland call a referendum on their possible independence, we will say nothing on the matter,” he said in an interview with the Financial Times.

However, after reading some article by Krugman on how stupid would be the idea of an independent Scotland depending on the Bank of England (didn't they learn any lesson from the ill design of the Eurozone?), I wonder if Scots realise that independence might not imply sovereignty.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 09, 2014, 08:26:08 AM
If Scotland vote yes, there is no way they'd get into the EU or NATO, right? I cannot see the UK (or whatever they would be called), Spain, or any other national with a secessionist movement allowing them in either group.

We will be allowed into NATO. It would not wish to leave this undefended;

()


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 09, 2014, 08:26:45 AM
In other news, Prime Ministers Question Time is being suspended tomorrow with the party leaders travelling up to Scotland.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 09, 2014, 08:29:37 AM
If Scotland votes yes, will Miliband fall?

No. Keep you eye on Cameron though, he is leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party after all.

A Yes vote brings, of course, a complete unknown. Literally anything could happen. I imagine the rUK public reaction to negotiations will be something akin to "well stuff them then, they don't want us, don't give anything away" even though, right now, the public would prefer Scotland to stay. Could be an issue in the GE and if the Tories and the public don't think Cameron is the guy to take a hardline on negotiations, who knows what the Tory power brokers would do...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Paleobrazilian on September 09, 2014, 08:41:43 AM
If Scotland vote yes, there is no way they'd get into the EU or NATO, right? I cannot see the UK (or whatever they would be called), Spain, or any other national with a secessionist movement allowing them in either group.

We will be allowed into NATO. It would not wish to leave this undefended;

()

EU shouldn't be a problem as well because Scotland wouldn't be breaching international law to become independent. It would be getting its independence through a process negotiated with the central government, where England would be explicitly recognizing and accepting the referendum and its results as a sovereign wish of the Scots for self-determination.

If England didn't accept the referendum in first place, then Scotland would be in breach of international law by running it and by self-declaring itself independent.

The thing is, even if Scotland votes yes next week and becomes independent, membership to the EU is not automatic. There's no succession of States, there's the formation of a whole new State. Thus, Scotland would have to go through the entire process of accession to the EU if they want EU membership. And while Scotland's legal order is already pretty much up to EU standards, negotiations and ratifications could take a little while.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 09, 2014, 08:48:42 AM
Scotland is too valuable a partner for the EU to ditch them. While there might be some stones on the road along the way to membership, its hardly realistic that they would be kept out.

England would have no long term interest in keeping Scotland out. That would just unnecessarily complicate trade.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Gass3268 on September 09, 2014, 09:31:12 AM
Cool, thanks for the answers to my question!


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ilikeverin on September 09, 2014, 09:36:35 AM
Ed Miliband calls for locations all around England to raise the Scottish saltire in "solidarity" with Scotland.  Cameron assents and starts raising it above Downing Street.  In the first try to get it up, it falls to the ground after it gets half way up the flagpole (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11081025/Scottish-independence-campaign-live.html).  Metaphor ensues?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ilikeverin on September 09, 2014, 11:25:14 AM
Ed Miliband calls for locations all around England to raise the Scottish saltire in "solidarity" with Scotland.  Cameron assents and starts raising it above Downing Street.  In the first try to get it up, it falls to the ground after it gets half way up the flagpole (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11081025/Scottish-independence-campaign-live.html).  Metaphor ensues?

Now with video (http://www.scotlandnow.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/video-saltire-fails-fly-over-4189791)!


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: YL on September 09, 2014, 12:02:03 PM
The extent of the panic makes me suspect that Better Together have private polling which is at least as bad for them as the public polls.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 09, 2014, 12:08:23 PM
Are Scots naturally late deciders? In 2007 and 2011, Labour led in the polls until late in the day. Are we just seeing a repeat of this dynamic?

Also, on Mark Carney's words today, does he have the same opinion of the nats in Quebec?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2014, 01:05:50 PM
In 2007 the SNP lead throughout (and before) the campaign.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2014, 01:10:22 PM
I wonder if Scots realise that independence might not imply sovereignty.

We have now reached the slightly ridiculous situation where both campaigns are technically offering something not dissimilar to what the other is...

(personally I wouldn't buy a used car off either)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 09, 2014, 01:55:45 PM
So how is the counting process going to work, when will it actually take place and will there be an exit poll?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 09, 2014, 02:09:33 PM
So how is the counting process going to work, when will it actually take place and will there be an exit poll?

No exit poll. Polls close at 10pm. Counting done by local authority. Results announced throughout the very early morning. Final tally announced.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 09, 2014, 02:12:17 PM
Can you feel the love?

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10202662622079088


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 09, 2014, 02:19:28 PM
Is there going to be a "unity rally"?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 09, 2014, 02:33:55 PM
Is there going to be a "unity rally"?

Probably not. Cameron, Miliband and Clegg are here on Wednesday. Nigel Farage is here on Friday and the Orange Order are marching 15,000 to 25,000 strong in Edinburgh at the weekend.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 09, 2014, 02:35:06 PM
Is there going to be a "unity rally"?

Probably not. Cameron, Miliband and Clegg are here on Wednesday. Nigel Farage is here on Friday and the Orange Order are marching 15,000 to 25,000 strong in Edinburgh at the weekend.

Will there be a 'secession rally'?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 09, 2014, 02:40:24 PM
Is there going to be a "unity rally"?

Probably not. Cameron, Miliband and Clegg are here on Wednesday. Nigel Farage is here on Friday and the Orange Order are marching 15,000 to 25,000 strong in Edinburgh at the weekend.

Will there be a 'secession rally'?

There was supposed to be one in the middle of last month, but the decision was made to divert the cost (which would have been near six figures) into canvassing.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: CJK on September 09, 2014, 03:15:41 PM
There was a time when Scots rejected independence:

Quote
One thing missing from Fleming’s excellent article, however, is the inconvenient truth that eighteenth-century Scots largely disavowed the American Revolution.  In both Scotland and America, the overwhelming majority of Scots rejected colonial theories about the rights of Englishmen and remained loyal to the British crown.  Scottish emigrants, more often than not, became Loyalists and participated in large numbers in the armed provincial regiments.  The most sophisticated retort to the Declaration of Independence, The Rights of Great Britain Asserted Against the Claims of America: being an Answer to the Declaration of the General Congress, was penned by James Macpherson, a Scottish member of parliament who, in addition to his well-known fabrications of Gaelic poetry, also wrote for the North government.[2]  For a nation that had won its independence from England in the early fourteenth century and had fought numerous wars to protect this independence, such loyalty may seem bizarre.

http://allthingsliberty.com/2013/10/scotland-american-revolution/ (http://allthingsliberty.com/2013/10/scotland-american-revolution/)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 09, 2014, 04:03:09 PM
One thing that worries me as a No supporter is that in the 2011 election, the pollsters (although they picked up the SNP surge) were miles of on the result. YouGov had the SNP at 35%!


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Iosif on September 09, 2014, 04:03:28 PM
I hope they vote yes. All the No campaign ran on was over the top scare mongering which has backfired as the Scots are going to vote yes to prove a point.

The leadership of all the Westminster parties are horrific. Completely botched this up. Watch them makes things worse. The thought of having to vote for one of them next year...

Scotland will be fine. They're set up a lot better than half the nomark countries in Europe.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 09, 2014, 04:10:36 PM
As a student, just wondering if Scotland votes Yes, will rUK students starting at Scottish universities within days lose support from Student Finance England post-independence in 2016?

Also worth noting while im on the topic, that most new students/returning students at new Scottish addresses, won't be registered to vote with the week of the referendum being the week many students return to university. A good few thousand rUKers living in Scotland going without the vote next Thursday...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 09, 2014, 04:14:05 PM
Ed Miliband calls for locations all around England to raise the Scottish saltire in "solidarity" with Scotland.  Cameron assents and starts raising it above Downing Street.  In the first try to get it up, it falls to the ground after it gets half way up the flagpole (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11081025/Scottish-independence-campaign-live.html).  Metaphor ensues?

Shouldn't Tories be eager to get rid off Scotland? :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 09, 2014, 04:21:20 PM
Ed Miliband calls for locations all around England to raise the Scottish saltire in "solidarity" with Scotland.  Cameron assents and starts raising it above Downing Street.  In the first try to get it up, it falls to the ground after it gets half way up the flagpole (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11081025/Scottish-independence-campaign-live.html).  Metaphor ensues?

Shouldn't Tories be eager to get rid off Scotland? :P

You'd think, but the Tories have always been very keen on "Queen and country".


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ingemann on September 09, 2014, 04:44:16 PM
Ed Miliband calls for locations all around England to raise the Scottish saltire in "solidarity" with Scotland.  Cameron assents and starts raising it above Downing Street.  In the first try to get it up, it falls to the ground after it gets half way up the flagpole (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11081025/Scottish-independence-campaign-live.html).  Metaphor ensues?

Shouldn't Tories be eager to get rid off Scotland? :P

Well I guess the Scottish are the price you have to pay for all that sweet oil and gas


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2014, 05:35:29 PM
Most people aren't that sociopathic.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2014, 05:37:40 PM
A good few thousand rUKers living in Scotland going without the vote next Thursday...

Over 700,000 actually.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 09, 2014, 05:56:40 PM
In other news, Prime Ministers Question Time is being suspended tomorrow with the party leaders travelling up to Scotland.

I'm even beating Mr. Scotland/Yes to the punch on breaking news here.  ;)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: bore on September 09, 2014, 07:39:18 PM
There's a big difference between Scotland's constitutional status and that of America before the revolution.

Can you feel the love?

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10202662622079088

I thought that was quite funny.



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Famous Mortimer on September 09, 2014, 07:53:50 PM
I thought it was commonly accepted that the movement for independence only really started becoming serious after devolution and that devolution had the opposite of its intended effect.

That being the case, why the hell is the No campaign offering more autonomy no matter what?

I'm a Unionist sympathizer but at this point, if I lived in Scotland, I would actually consider voting yes just because a unitary Scottish government would be better than the ridiculous proposals for near-total-but-not quite independence. What's the point of that?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Famous Mortimer on September 09, 2014, 10:37:01 PM
They're basically saying "please don't vote against the union...and in return we will make the union totally meaningless."


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: njwes on September 09, 2014, 11:18:42 PM
LOL

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11086121/Independent-Scotland-wont-pay-back-debt-Alex-Salmond-says.html

Maybe getting a tad too cocky?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 10, 2014, 01:17:09 AM
A good few thousand rUKers living in Scotland going without the vote next Thursday...

Over 700,000 actually.

What sounds very high. Who are they? And is this something the SNP did on purpose or just the result of some technical requirement in British election legislation?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 10, 2014, 05:52:53 AM
A good few thousand rUKers living in Scotland going without the vote next Thursday...

Over 700,000 actually.

What sounds very high. Who are they? And is this something the SNP did on purpose or just the result of some technical requirement in British election legislation?

If you are registered to vote in Scotland you can vote in the referendum. That's it.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 10, 2014, 06:02:45 AM
All three leaders are here but at separate events so far. No sign yet of them meeting together. John Prescott is in Rutherglen and made a joke about the English and Scottish football team coming together to 'beat the Germans' and went off message attacking the Tories (to his credit, you can't stop him!)

Cameron in Edinburgh says don't vote Yes just so you can 'kick the effing Tories'. His event is closed off. 'Yessers' are outside. It's like a strange carnival. Jim Sillars is entertaining the Socialists and Greens.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ChrisDR68 on September 10, 2014, 06:10:50 AM
I'm of the view if it ain't broke don't fix it. The United Kingdom as it stands works pretty well overall for all the different countries of the union.

Having said that if the Scots vote for independence the Westminster government really should insist that Scotland will have to have it's own currency.

Using the UK's currency makes no sense for Scotland. Independence should mean true financial independence as well as political sovereignty.



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 10, 2014, 07:03:31 AM
I'm of the view if it ain't broke don't fix it. The United Kingdom as it stands works pretty well overall for all the different countries of the union.

Having said that if the Scots vote for independence the Westminster government really should insist that Scotland will have to have it's own currency.

Using the UK's currency makes no sense for Scotland. Independence should mean true financial independence as well as political sovereignty.



Well exactly. They can't ask for independence just as long as they can keep the good bits of the union. The rUK public wouldn't have it.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: CJK on September 10, 2014, 09:14:50 AM
There's a big difference between Scotland's constitutional status and that of America before the revolution.


I'm not sure why that matters. I only bring it up because, as a matter of history, I think it is notable that Scotland was far more opposed to American independence than England, Wales, or Ireland was.

https://archive.org/stream/historyofengland03leck#page/533/mode/1up (https://archive.org/stream/historyofengland03leck#page/533/mode/1up)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 10, 2014, 12:45:25 PM
Survation poll: No 48, Yes 42

Figures rounded.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 10, 2014, 12:46:42 PM
Brand new poll has NO leading with 53-47 (47.6-42.4-10 with undecideds).

Quote
It showed that men are almost exactly evenly split on independence, with 46.4% planning to vote Yes and 46.8% voting No. But a wider gap between women gave the Unionists their lead.

Survation found 48.5% of women are now planning to vote No compared to 38.6% who will back Yes.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/independence-referendum-exclusive-daily-record-4196976


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 10, 2014, 12:47:51 PM
All Survation polls taken during the official campaign period, with the new one in bold to avoid confusion:

No 48, Yes 42
No 48, Yes 42
No 50, Yes 37
No 46, Yes 40
No 46, Yes 41
No 44, Yes 39


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 10, 2014, 02:05:30 PM
So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 10, 2014, 02:24:29 PM
So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?

Look at what Al posted again. This poll is the same as the last one by the same company :)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ilikeverin on September 10, 2014, 02:26:51 PM
So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?

Look at what Al posted again. This poll is the same as the last one by the same company :)

I made the same assumption, but, no, it doesn't seem to be (http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Headline-Referenedum-Vote-Table.pdf) (note the dates: 5th-9th September).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 10, 2014, 02:27:24 PM
So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?

Look at what Al posted again. This poll is the same as the last one by the same company :)

That doesn't mean they are wrong though. :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: YL on September 10, 2014, 02:29:56 PM
So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?

Of the last four polls, two (YouGov and TNS) have shown striking moves to Yes, and two (Survation and Panelbase) have shown little or no change on their previous polls.  So what's really going on is a bit of a mystery.  However, all four show either more or less a tie or No narrowly ahead.

According to Anthony Wells (UKPollingReport) there's another YouGov poll coming out for Friday, an ICM poll by the weekend, and probably also another Panelbase poll at the weekend.  These may start to clear things up, or they may not...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 10, 2014, 02:32:08 PM
So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?

Look at what Al posted again. This poll is the same as the last one by the same company :)

That doesn't mean they are wrong though. :P

But you can't say whether whether support is rising or falling if it's no change on the last poll by the same company. Survation are steady. Panelbase was steady. YouGov saw Yes up, TNS saw yes up. Most polling companies are now starting to iron out methodology, tweak for turnout etc. It's not an easy election to poll. A pollster could call the result wrong but technically be more accurate than a pollster that calls it right, but by too much.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 10, 2014, 03:11:22 PM
Its 53/47 if you don't include undecideds, that's almost within he margin of error anyway. Its gotta be very close to a tie right now.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DL on September 10, 2014, 03:39:55 PM
I'm still convinced that NO will get about 1% more than the average of final polls since people who decide on referendum day will skew towards the status quo...If you haven't made up your mind to vote Yes by the big day - you will likely be a NO


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 10, 2014, 03:43:03 PM
I'm still convinced that NO will get about 1% more than the average of final polls since people who decide on referendum day will skew towards the status quo...If you haven't made up your mind to vote Yes by the big day - you will likely be a NO

At least 1% is almost a given, but that's also a far cry from your Quebec 1995 comparison.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 10, 2014, 08:14:26 PM
For reference, the difference between the Labour percentage in Scotland and across the whole of the UK since 1945:

1945: -0.1
1950: +0.1
1951: -0.9
1955: +0.3
1959: +2.8
1964: +4.8
1966: +1.7
1970: +1.4
1974: -0.5
1974: -3.0
1979: +4.6
1983: +7.5
1987: +11.6
1992: +4.5
1997: +2.4
2001: +3.2
2005: +4.2
2010: +13.0


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DL on September 11, 2014, 06:11:11 AM
Is that based on raw Labour vote share or on margin over the Tories because only from the 70s on did Scotland become a 4 party system with the Snp as a factor...we interesting to see that table comparing the Tory vote in Scotland in every election to their UK wide percentage . I read that as recently as the 50s, the Tories actually did a bit BETTER in Scotland than in England


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Brittain33 on September 11, 2014, 09:45:00 AM
If Scotland can't use the £, then what about adopting the U.S. dollar, like Panama or Ecuador? How might that work out?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 11, 2014, 09:55:10 AM
If Scotland can't use the £, then what about adopting the U.S. dollar, like Panama or Ecuador? How might that work out?

If SNP really are serious about joining the Nordic Council, as they have talked about, another solution would be to establish a currency union between Scotland, Norway, Denmark and Iceland. This would give the Norwegians a much needed devaluation and create a strong currency for the rest of us. It may be slightly too strong for Scotland, but better than using the pound IMO.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DL on September 11, 2014, 10:25:06 AM
Denmark is part of the EU, an independent Scotland would want to be and Norway is adamantly not part of the EU - no way you could create a common currency for a mix of country some in and some out of the EU


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 11, 2014, 10:30:21 AM
A total of 4.285.323 people have registered to vote in the Indy referendum.

Scotland does not have automatic voter registration, which means out of a total 4.4 million people aged 16 or more, ca. 97% of all eligible people have registered to vote.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/11/referendum-registered-voters-scotland-four-million-97-per-cent


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 11, 2014, 10:37:57 AM
Denmark is part of the EU, an independent Scotland would want to be and Norway is adamantly not part of the EU - no way you could create a common currency for a mix of country some in and some out of the EU

Why not? The Danish krone is already in use in three countries where only one of them is an EU member. Plus Norway and Iceland are in the EEA.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DL on September 11, 2014, 11:07:13 AM
Why wouldn't an independent Scotland simply use the Euro - like Ireland?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 11, 2014, 11:07:57 AM
Joshua Rozenberg - law journalist - has a bit of trollish fun (http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/sep/11/nine-legal-questions-scotland-yes-vote-joshua-rozenberg)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 11, 2014, 11:08:16 AM
Why wouldn't an independent Scotland simply use the Euro - like Ireland?

Because the Eurozone is a bit of a disaster.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: swl on September 11, 2014, 11:38:27 AM
If Scotland leaves the UK we can imagine almost everything. I think the rUK would eventually leave the EU and it would change a lot of things in the EU (for the better in my opinion).

But I am pretty sure they would find an agreement to keep the pound, at least during a transition period.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Brittain33 on September 11, 2014, 12:10:56 PM
Why wouldn't an independent Scotland simply use the Euro - like Ireland?

I think Scotland would have to apply to join the Euro, and I don't know if their economic indicators will support it, not after they take the big economic hit from separation and losing many companies to the U.K.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 11, 2014, 12:26:39 PM
Why wouldn't an independent Scotland simply use the Euro - like Ireland?

I think Scotland would have to apply to join the Euro, and I don't know if their economic indicators will support it, not after they take the big economic hit from separation and losing many companies to the U.K.

While Scotland would need to apply to join the Euro, that is not the reason and their economy would easily meet the requirements for membership. The Euro is simply not an attractive option at the moment.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 11, 2014, 12:33:05 PM
Why wouldn't an independent Scotland simply use the Euro - like Ireland?

I think Scotland would have to apply to join the Euro, and I don't know if their economic indicators will support it, not after they take the big economic hit from separation and losing many companies to the U.K.

While Scotland would need to apply to join the Euro, that is not the reason and their economy would easily meet the requirements for membership. The Euro is simply not an attractive option at the moment.

Alex Salmond is still a politician and the SNP is still a political party. To even whisper about joining the euro would spell electoral armageddon.

If it was in any way feasible, it would've been one of the first suggestions.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 11, 2014, 01:17:46 PM
Why wouldn't an independent Scotland simply use the Euro - like Ireland?

I think Scotland would have to apply to join the Euro, and I don't know if their economic indicators will support it, not after they take the big economic hit from separation and losing many companies to the U.K.

While Scotland would need to apply to join the Euro, that is not the reason and their economy would easily meet the requirements for membership. The Euro is simply not an attractive option at the moment.

Alex Salmond is still a politician and the SNP is still a political party. To even whisper about joining the euro would spell electoral armageddon.

If it was in any way feasible, it would've been one of the first suggestions.

Well that was my point when I wrote:

Why wouldn't an independent Scotland simply use the Euro - like Ireland?

Because the Eurozone is a bit of a disaster.

But it got ignored as usual.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 11, 2014, 01:28:31 PM
ComRes have polled the two local authority areas on the English border:

Dumfries & Galloway: No 67%, Yes 33%
Borders: No 68%, Yes 32%


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 11, 2014, 01:31:43 PM
ComRes have polled the two local authority areas on the English border:

D&G: No 67%, Yes 33%
Borders: No 68%, Yes 32%

That's actually a bit better for Yes than I would have expected.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: joevsimp on September 11, 2014, 02:19:29 PM
ComRes have polled the two local authority areas on the English border:

D&G: No 67%, Yes 33%
Borders: No 68%, Yes 32%

That's actually a bit better for Yes than I would have expected.

the yes results for those two in 79 and 97 were:
_________79___97parl__97tax
DG:_____40.3%_60.7%__48.8%
borders__40.3%_62.8%__50.7%
scotland_51.6%_74.3%__63.5%

so those two council areas were 10 to 15% lower than average, looks like a narrow no on those figures


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 11, 2014, 03:56:46 PM
No back ahead with YouGov

52-48 from 49-51.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 11, 2014, 03:58:15 PM

Well, I guess it was fun while it lasted. :(


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 11, 2014, 04:00:40 PM

Well, I guess it was fun while it lasted. :(

The one with Yes ahead looks like more of an outlier. The one before that one was 53-47.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 11, 2014, 06:09:34 PM
Full figures are: No 50, Yes 45, Undecided 6

All YouGov polls since the start of the official campaign period, the new one in bold:

50 45
45 47
48 42
51 38
55 35
54 35
53 36

(No on the left, Yes on the right)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 11, 2014, 06:13:31 PM
I'm still sticking with 54-46 No...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: GAworth on September 11, 2014, 08:16:43 PM
Full figures are: No 50, Yes 45, Undecided 6

All YouGov polls since the start of the official campaign period, the new one in bold:

50 45
45 47
48 42
51 38
55 35
54 35
53 36

(No on the left, Yes on the right)

Equals 101% Silly Pollsters, Math is for kids.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 11, 2014, 08:23:48 PM
Yes, I thought that looked strange. It's how its entered on the wikipedia article, (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014) lol


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 11, 2014, 08:33:44 PM
Well, if the actual result was, say, 49.7, 44.7, 5.6, that adds up to 100.0 but the figures round up to 50, 45, 6. Pollsters sometimes get mocked here for publishing a decimal point beyond the margin of error, so we have to allow them not to add to 100 with rounding.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 11, 2014, 08:46:17 PM
Its the official number on the YouGov website as well.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 11, 2014, 08:54:57 PM
Its the official number on the YouGov website as well.

Right, but they give the same explanation.

Quote
Compared with then, Yes is up ten points to 45%, and No and don’t know both down by five points, to 50% and 6% respectively. (Percentages don’t add to 100 because of rounding.)

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/11/scotland-referendum-no-52-yes-48/


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 11, 2014, 08:59:15 PM
I like the slightly reproachful wording in the brackets.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: njwes on September 11, 2014, 09:12:06 PM
Has there been any discussion recently of the Shetland and Orkney Islands and Western Isles? I seem to remember earlier in the year some talk that they may look for a third way in the event that they all vote No while Scotland as a whole votes Yes.

Not sure how realistic the ideas were but it was interesting.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on September 11, 2014, 09:37:02 PM
If Scotland can dissolve its union with a 50%+1 vote, why shouldn't some of the council areas dissolve their relationship with Scotland with the same such vote?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 11, 2014, 09:56:47 PM
If Scotland can dissolve its union with a 50%+1 vote, why shouldn't some of the council areas dissolve their relationship with Scotland with the same such vote?

Scotland is a nation. Council areas are not.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: bore on September 12, 2014, 06:37:50 AM
Has there been any discussion recently of the Shetland and Orkney Islands and Western Isles? I seem to remember earlier in the year some talk that they may look for a third way in the event that they all vote No while Scotland as a whole votes Yes.

Not sure how realistic the ideas were but it was interesting.

The Western Isles will probably be one of the strongest Yes areas in the country. Shetland and Orkney will likely be the opposite, and there have been some, probably trollish suggestions about them seceding from Scotland, but I don't think they're being serious.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 12, 2014, 06:41:55 AM
ICM

No 51
Yes 49

Without excluded's its

No 42 (-5)
Yes 40 (+2)
DK 17 (+3)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: eric82oslo on September 12, 2014, 07:07:08 AM
The median of the last 7 polls (August 26-September 11), all conducted after the last debate, show a median No lead of 5%, while the average No lead has been 3.7%. The average of the last 5 polls however has been No +2.8%. And the average of the last three polls has been No +3%. A No victory of anywhere between +2% and +5% is probably the likeliest right now. According to 538, about 20% of the Scottish electorate has already voted early by mail in ballots.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: njwes on September 12, 2014, 07:16:13 AM
The Western Isles will probably be one of the strongest Yes areas in the country. Shetland and Orkney will likely be the opposite, and there have been some, probably trollish suggestions about them seceding from Scotland, but I don't think they're being serious.

Ah ok gotcha, thanks!

I understand why it seems more like trolling, but I think I agree with Bleeding Heart Conservative. "If Scotland can dissolve its union with a 50%+1 vote, why shouldn't some of the council areas dissolve their relationship with Scotland with the same such vote?" To simply say that "Scotland is a nation. Council areas are not" doesn't do it for me; the definition and boundaries of "nations" are nearly always ambiguous and less clear-cut than people imagine them to be.

Given their location and history, is it that hard to believe that many inhabitants of Shetland and Orkney, or the Borders for that matter, feel themselves to be rather different than the Scots of the Edinburgh/Glasgow/Highlands core of Scotland? And that they might feel it deeply wrong that the rest of the "nation" can tear them away from the UK against their will?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 12, 2014, 07:43:51 AM
The Zetlanders and Orcadians saying 'no' to independence for Scotland is not the same as saying that in the event of independence that they would wish to remain part of the UK and governed in effect, from London (given than Scotland had left) if that makes sense.

The might not vote for it, but they would go along with it.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: bore on September 12, 2014, 07:47:38 AM
On the other hand, if they really did want to remain as part of the UK, it would be pretty hard for Shetland and Orkney at least, to be denied that.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 12, 2014, 09:20:34 AM
On the other hand, if they really did want to remain as part of the UK, it would be pretty hard for Shetland and Orkney at least, to be denied that.

Ironically, at least it would guarantee an open border policy and a reciprocal relaxation in trade. Supplying Lerwick directly from Newcastle-Upon-Tyne would be a logistical nightmare.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 12, 2014, 09:30:58 AM
Could Shetland and Orkney become Crown Territories instead?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Simfan34 on September 12, 2014, 10:41:35 AM
The Zetlanders and Orcadians saying 'no' to independence for Scotland is not the same as saying that in the event of independence that they would wish to remain part of the UK and governed in effect, from London (given than Scotland had left) if that makes sense.

The might not vote for it, but they would go along with it.

One wonders why the "if Canada is divisible, then Quebec is divisible" principle should not apply for Scotland.

But the idea of Shetland and Orkney- and their corresponding sea territory that just happens to have the Scots' beloved oil- remaining British would be absolutely hilarious.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Simfan34 on September 12, 2014, 10:53:49 AM
Also the form of a Scottish monarchy is interesting to consider. Would they have a Governor General like the other realms? I imagine this would be received coolly by people there- or perhaps it would be one of the Princes. Or could they do without? The Queen spends much of her time there already. I'm not sure how much pomp a state opening of Parliament would have with the building there, but besides there isn't much she'd have to go there for she doesn't already?

And coronations? Elizabeth I?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 12, 2014, 11:01:28 AM
The Western Isles will probably be one of the strongest Yes areas in the country.

Though apparently the Wee Frees are against.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 12, 2014, 11:17:19 AM

Actually it can't. Referendums in the UK are technically always advisory referendums because of Parliamentary Supremacy (i.e. in practical terms sovereignty lies with Parliament, which cannot be bound by decisions made by other authorities or even - this is the best bit - itself).* Were Scotland to vote for independence, the decision must be (at the very least) rubber stamped by Parliament at some point. A really, really narrow win for Yes would thus have the potential to create quite the constitutional clusterfyck.

*There are also certain - currently entirely theoretical - complications regarding the Act of Union, but those are best left undisturbed for now...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: bore on September 12, 2014, 11:28:08 AM
The Western Isles will probably be one of the strongest Yes areas in the country.

Though apparently the Wee Frees are against.

They're pretty much against everything :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Gary J on September 12, 2014, 11:28:41 AM
The royal representative in Scotland before the union of parliaments had a title like Lord Commissioner.

I imagine Princess Anne would be well placed to represent the Queen, as she and her son have been building up support for a while. Princess Anne often attends rugby union internationals in Edinburgh and her son was involved in playing the game within the Scottish system.

The Queen is, of course, half Scottish herself and spends part of her year in Scotland (Christmas and New Year), so no doubt some arrangement could be made foe who does what within the royal family.  


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 12, 2014, 11:31:35 AM
The Western Isles will probably be one of the strongest Yes areas in the country.

Though apparently the Wee Frees are against.

They're pretty much against everything :P

I gather that they do now allow the use of musical instruments in church. Admittedly the vote was narrow and some ministers resigned in protest.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: EPG on September 12, 2014, 11:40:27 AM
To summarise Sibboleth's explanation, Scotland gets 50%+1 because the British government has implicitly accepted those terms in Scotland and allowed a referendum, whereas the Scottish government has not done so for Shetland.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 12, 2014, 01:51:12 PM
*There are also certain - currently entirely theoretical - complications regarding the Act of Union, but those are best left undisturbed for now...

To be fair so little of the Act of Union remains unamended or unappealed it's pretty much like the ship of Theseus at this point.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Hnv1 on September 12, 2014, 02:28:03 PM
A legal question, the Yes vote won what happens in the general election? will the Scottish MPs take their seats and be able to vote despite the fact that they will soon be out of the union? if Labour win due to the Scottish vote what happens?

I feel like a generation of future law students will suffer studying this cluster of a constitutional problem.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 12, 2014, 02:33:57 PM
The Zetlanders and Orcadians saying 'no' to independence for Scotland is not the same as saying that in the event of independence that they would wish to remain part of the UK and governed in effect, from London (given than Scotland had left) if that makes sense.

The might not vote for it, but they would go along with it.

One wonders why the "if Canada is divisible, then Quebec is divisible" principle should not apply for Scotland.


Scotland was an independent kingdom before joining the union, Quebec was a British colony before it entered the Canadian confederation. The northern part of Quebec with its sizable native population was added later, while the present boundaries of Scotland have been (almost) stable from the middle ages. So there is a big difference in the history and legal status of those to entities.

Both Orkney and Shetland were ceded from Norway in the 15th century (well technically pawned actually...) to the Scottish kingdom and was a part of the Scottish state for centuries before the union with England.
While they have a bit more Nordic words in their dialects than mainlanders and have retained a few old customs, Zetlanders and Orcadians are Scots. Claiming they wanna go back to Norway once in a while and learning Norwegian in evening classes are part of the sort of pseudo-ethnic local patriotism small regions with a distinct heritage in Europe like to play with. We have a few of those local patriotic micro-nations in Scandinavia as well, such as Elfdalians with their archaic language in Dalarna and the Scanian nationalism. And their is the Cornish nationalism in England.

This phenomenon is a sort of extreme local patriotism and should not be mistaken for actual  secessionist movements even when they use a secessionist discourse.

"To simply say that "Scotland is a nation. Council areas are not" doesn't do it for me; the definition and boundaries of "nations" are nearly always ambiguous and less clear-cut than people imagine them to be.

Scotland is a much more well defined and homogeneous nation than most European nations. The old highland/lowland dividing line is virtually obsolete as the Gaeliec culture has in reality died out outside of the Western Isles (highland (pseudo-)culture has of course on a symbolic level spread to all of Scotland in the form of kilts, bagpipes and tartans etc.). People in the Borders and Galloway do feel Scottish, there is no English minority in southern Scotland and as noted above Zetlanders and Orcadians local patriotism don't make them an ethnic minority.

Quote
Given their location and history, is it that hard to believe that many inhabitants of Shetland and Orkney, or the Borders for that matter, feel themselves to be rather different than the Scots of the Edinburgh/Glasgow/Highlands core of Scotland? And that they might feel it deeply wrong that the rest of the "nation" can tear them away from the UK against their will?

Every region feels a bit different, but they still consider themselves Scottish.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 12, 2014, 02:45:31 PM
A legal question, the Yes vote won what happens in the general election? will the Scottish MPs take their seats and be able to vote despite the fact that they will soon be out of the union? if Labour win due to the Scottish vote what happens?

I feel like a generation of future law students will suffer studying this cluster of a constitutional problem.

That's been the £1,000,000 question south of the border and the answer so far has basically been we'll cross that bridge when it comes.

Some have said that Scottish MPs may just be banned from voting on English matters until secession in 2016. I'd imagine if the government's majority rests on Scottish MPs, there'd have to be a snap election post-secession.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 12, 2014, 02:49:09 PM
A legal question, the Yes vote won what happens in the general election? will the Scottish MPs take their seats and be able to vote despite the fact that they will soon be out of the union? if Labour win due to the Scottish vote what happens?

I feel like a generation of future law students will suffer studying this cluster of a constitutional problem.

Technically there isn't much of a constitutional problem, the Scottish seats are as valid as all others until Scotland actually secedes. If Labour gains a majority they can form a government, if they haven't got a majority any longer when Scotland secedes in 2016 or (more likely) 2017 they will have to resign.

Politically its another matter and some sort of compromise will have to be worked out, but it isn't really a legal issue.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: njwes on September 12, 2014, 03:46:08 PM
Scotland is a much more well defined and homogeneous nation than most European nations. The old highland/lowland dividing line is virtually obsolete as the Gaeliec culture has in reality died out outside of the Western Isles (highland (pseudo-)culture has of course on a symbolic level spread to all of Scotland in the form of kilts, bagpipes and tartans etc.).

Uh-oh, sounds like someone needs to read up on his Eric Hobsbawn! ;)

I understand your points and they're well-taken, but ultimately I think any areas of Scotland that genuinely would prefer to stay in the UK by large margins should be allowed to if they make their wishes clear. There's something disturbing to me about saying, well they have to leave the UK no matter what their wishes because that's the collective will of ~the nation~. It sounds very early 20th century to me.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ingemann on September 12, 2014, 03:57:11 PM
Scotland is a much more well defined and homogeneous nation than most European nations. The old highland/lowland dividing line is virtually obsolete as the Gaeliec culture has in reality died out outside of the Western Isles (highland (pseudo-)culture has of course on a symbolic level spread to all of Scotland in the form of kilts, bagpipes and tartans etc.).

Uh-oh, sounds like someone needs to read up on his Eric Hobsbawn! ;)

I understand your points and they're well-taken, but ultimately I think any areas of Scotland that genuinely would prefer to stay in the UK by large margins should be allowed to if they make their wishes clear. There's something disturbing to me about saying, well they have to leave the UK no matter what their wishes because that's the collective will of ~the nation~. It sounds very early 20th century to me.

So you suggest that Scotland should look like a Swiss Cheese with every household deciding whether they want to be part of UK or Scotland, in fact that does seem a little unfair, what about households, where people vote for two different sides, I think we should split them or make them co-domains of Scotland and UK. Clearly that would be the anti-nationalist solution. In fact I think we should extent this to the general vote, with households voting for one party, getting their candidate as PM, while household voting for the other party getting their candidate as PM.



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 12, 2014, 04:07:34 PM
Scotland is a much more well defined and homogeneous nation than most European nations. The old highland/lowland dividing line is virtually obsolete as the Gaeliec culture has in reality died out outside of the Western Isles (highland (pseudo-)culture has of course on a symbolic level spread to all of Scotland in the form of kilts, bagpipes and tartans etc.).

Uh-oh, sounds like someone needs to read up on his Eric Hobsbawn! ;)

I am not male.

I doubt that Hobsbawn - of all people - would disagree with me about the pseudo-Highland culture invented in the early 19th century and its spread across Scotland - including lowland areas completely alien to the original Gaelic culture. Its a well established historical fact.
That the usual symbolic representations of Scottishness are derived from this romantic invention of Highland culture should be obvious.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: EPG on September 12, 2014, 04:13:16 PM
A legal question, the Yes vote won what happens in the general election? will the Scottish MPs take their seats and be able to vote despite the fact that they will soon be out of the union? if Labour win due to the Scottish vote what happens?

I feel like a generation of future law students will suffer studying this cluster of a constitutional problem.

Short answer, Scotland's seats in Westminster exist under the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 as amended by order, and this would not change after a Yes vote unless the law were changed.

Long answer, there is relevant legal precedent to deprive Scotland of seats. The Irish Free State did not participate in the November 1922 election, despite Britain's only affirming Irish independence in December. However, Ireland had already created its own revolutionary house of representatives, courts, local government, etc., which were doing government work, so an election to Westminster would have been pointless and farcical at best.

This is precedent for the legality of any change to remove Westminster seats for a country on its way out of the union. But there is a big but. Ireland had already been in revolution since 1919 and there was a whole year to prepare the electoral arrangements between the agreement of the Anglo-Irish Treaty and its legal ratification by the crown. Surely the agreement between Scotland and the rest of the UK wouldn't be completed before the scheduled 2015 general election. It would be very foolhardy to abolish Scottish seats before they were definitely leaving the UK.

What I don't know is whether Scottish MPs could be deprived of their seats after a valid election, even if their constituencies were no longer valid in future elections because well um they were now in another country. The cleanest solution would be a dissolution of Parliament.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DC Al Fine on September 12, 2014, 05:01:10 PM
Scotland is a much more well defined and homogeneous nation than most European nations. The old highland/lowland dividing line is virtually obsolete as the Gaeliec culture has in reality died out outside of the Western Isles (highland (pseudo-)culture has of course on a symbolic level spread to all of Scotland in the form of kilts, bagpipes and tartans etc.).

Uh-oh, sounds like someone needs to read up on his Eric Hobsbawn! ;)

I understand your points and they're well-taken, but ultimately I think any areas of Scotland that genuinely would prefer to stay in the UK by large margins should be allowed to if they make their wishes clear. There's something disturbing to me about saying, well they have to leave the UK no matter what their wishes because that's the collective will of ~the nation~. It sounds very early 20th century to me.

So you suggest that Scotland should look like a Swiss Cheese with every household deciding whether they want to be part of UK or Scotland, in fact that does seem a little unfair, what about households, where people vote for two different sides, I think we should split them or make them co-domains of Scotland and UK. Clearly that would be the anti-nationalist solution. In fact I think we should extent this to the general vote, with households voting for one party, getting their candidate as PM, while household voting for the other party getting their candidate as PM.

Not ripping on you ingemann, but this reminds me of some Parti Quebecois politicians who think that 50%+1 is an acceptable threshold for independence, but THE ISLAND OF MONTREAL IS PART OF QUEBEC AND I DON'T CARE IF 80% OF THEM VOTED NO!!!!!! :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ag on September 12, 2014, 07:28:10 PM
If Scotland can dissolve its union with a 50%+1 vote, why shouldn't some of the council areas dissolve their relationship with Scotland with the same such vote?

Scotland is a nation. Council areas are not.

"Nation" is but a legal definition. The Parliament would be able to create a few, if it so desires.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ag on September 12, 2014, 07:29:45 PM
To summarise Sibboleth's explanation, Scotland gets 50%+1 because the British government has implicitly accepted those terms in Scotland and allowed a referendum, whereas the Scottish government has not done so for Shetland.

True. But the Parliament would still have to act to implement the referendum decision. As far as I understand, it has not committed to the exact shape of Scottish independence. It would be, let us say, interesting :)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on September 12, 2014, 07:51:40 PM
Wait... if parliament has to consent to independence, where are the votes going to come from to do that?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 12, 2014, 08:05:23 PM
Events might turn out in such a way that the major parties vote for it (as happened with the establishment of the Irish Free State) (http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1921/dec/16/irish-free-state). Who knows? The possibility of a gigantic constitutional clusterfyck is also quite real, of course.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 12, 2014, 09:33:10 PM
Who knows? The possibility of a gigantic constitutional clusterfyck is also quite real, of course.

Wow. Even more reason for Scotland to leave this third world-esque circus.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 13, 2014, 01:33:52 AM
If Scotland can dissolve its union with a 50%+1 vote, why shouldn't some of the council areas dissolve their relationship with Scotland with the same such vote?

Scotland is a nation. Council areas are not.

"Nation" is but a legal definition. The Parliament would be able to create a few, if it so desires.

Rubbish. Nation is a cultural, historical and emotional entity and dividing up long established nations always cause major trouble. In the case of Scotland carving up the territory is simply unrealistic.

The idea that a parliament can create a nation is ludicrous. They can create
(artificial) states, but that's an entirely different kettle of fish.  


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 13, 2014, 02:34:16 AM
Olds are unionists, while those under 60 have swung big time for independence.

()


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Cassius on September 13, 2014, 03:33:31 AM
Olds are unionists, while those under 60 have swung big time for independence.

()

I think the word 'swung' is important here, as on the chart it can be seen that support for independence has been very volatile amongst the younger age groups, so I don't think its particularly indicative of much commitment to independence on the part of the young.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 13, 2014, 04:52:13 AM
Still, previous polling has showed that the 35-55 age group is the most pro-independence, so if SNP can get the youngs to support Yes that's crucial. But there is a big if regarding commitment and actually showing up


Old unionists on the other hand will vote, at least the ones under 75. I think it could be important whether the usual phenomenon with the very  old (+75) voting to a lesser degree tham the general population will materialize here. How prevalent will the "I have had my time, and will leave it to my children and grandchildren" effect be - I suspect it will be low in this context, since its a strongly emotional issue.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: YL on September 13, 2014, 05:22:55 AM
I think if Shetland actually wanted to separate from an independent Scotland and remain in the UK then there would be a case for saying that they were sufficiently geographically and culturally distinct and accepting that.

However, I haven't seen any evidence that this would actually be the case, just a bit of trolling speculation by the No campaign.  It might be more plausible that Shetland would want to be a small independent or semi-independent state in its own right.

As for Dumfriesshire or Roxburghshire, the question is entirely hypothetical: they're very much part of Scotland and will want to stay with it in the event of independence even if they didn't vote for it.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: EPG on September 13, 2014, 05:32:26 AM
To summarise Sibboleth's explanation, Scotland gets 50%+1 because the British government has implicitly accepted those terms in Scotland and allowed a referendum, whereas the Scottish government has not done so for Shetland.

True. But the Parliament would still have to act to implement the referendum decision. As far as I understand, it has not committed to the exact shape of Scottish independence. It would be, let us say, interesting :)

I suppose you could put the rump statelets into Northern Ireland...

But, on a more serious note, the wording of the referendum is clear and accepted by both sides and would appear to preclude detachments of parts of Scotland. The UK recognises Scotland as a political entity in a manner that is not true for the Scottish Borders or Shetland. The Canadian federal government may earnestly desire to own northern Québec or it may be trolling, but Westminster doesn't want to commit anything to potential enclaves around Selkirk or Aberdeen, or expensive little island statelets. It would be a pretty brave government that tried to keep Scotland in the union after a Yes vote.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: bore on September 13, 2014, 05:47:16 AM
Yeah, there is a big difference between wanting Scotland as a whole to stay in the UK, and wanting to stay in the UK even if the rest of Scotland leaves. No one wonders if, say, Obama would have accepted losing in 2012, and the same sort of thing applies here.

If Shetland or Orkney or the Western Isles or hell, maybe even Dumfries really wanted to remain in a rump UK then they probably couldn't be stopped, but the thing is they almost certainly won't want to remain in a rump UK.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: MaxQue on September 13, 2014, 05:47:46 AM
To summarise Sibboleth's explanation, Scotland gets 50%+1 because the British government has implicitly accepted those terms in Scotland and allowed a referendum, whereas the Scottish government has not done so for Shetland.

True. But the Parliament would still have to act to implement the referendum decision. As far as I understand, it has not committed to the exact shape of Scottish independence. It would be, let us say, interesting :)

I suppose you could put the rump statelets into Northern Ireland...

But, on a more serious note, the wording of the referendum is clear and accepted by both sides and would appear to preclude detachments of parts of Scotland. The UK recognises Scotland as a political entity in a manner that is not true for the Scottish Borders or Shetland. The Canadian federal government may earnestly desire to own northern Québec or it may be trolling, but Westminster doesn't want to commit anything to potential enclaves around Selkirk or Aberdeen, or expensive little island statelets. It would be a pretty brave government that tried to keep Scotland in the union after a Yes vote.

And I doubt very much than Selkirk or Aberdeen, even if opposed to independence, would prefer to stay in the UK without Scotland.

Wanting Scotland to stay in UK doesn't mean you want than your area splitting from Scotland in case of independence. It might, but, most likely, doesn't.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on September 13, 2014, 05:55:14 AM
This has been passing around the Twatter machine, no idea how accurate it is, but is suggestive

()


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: bore on September 13, 2014, 06:01:29 AM
I have a lecture at 9 o clock on Friday. I'm sure I can handle two hours sleep.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 13, 2014, 07:25:07 AM
"Expected declaration time" is the biggest lie told on election nights.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 13, 2014, 09:01:25 AM
I think if Shetland actually wanted to separate from an independent Scotland and remain in the UK then there would be a case for saying that they were sufficiently geographically and culturally distinct and accepting that.

However, I haven't seen any evidence that this would actually be the case, just a bit of trolling speculation by the No campaign.  It might be more plausible that Shetland would want to be a small independent or semi-independent state in its own right.


Geographically it is obviously distinct. Culturally I would say, that if you stay longer than the average tourist and get a bit beneath the surface it is not a place that feels culturally distinct from Scotland.
There is history and identity, but little actual difference. In this sense it reminds me of Scania (and that is the only sense in which Scania and Shetlands are similar.. ;) ) .

But as you say, this is all theoretical. They don't want to stay in a rump UK. If anything autonomy within an independent Scotland would make the most sense.

Out of curiosty have you visited Shetland or have relatives there?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: YL on September 13, 2014, 09:03:46 AM
Survation: No 49 Yes 42 Don't Know 9 (54-46 excluding Don't Knows).

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Better-Together-Voting-Intention-Tables.pdf

(Poll was carried out for the No campaign)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 13, 2014, 09:07:42 AM
SNP leader threatens scaremongering business leaders with "day of reckoning".

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2753279/Scotland-face-10-year-economic-slowdown-independence-warns-business-chief-fresh-blow-Salmond.html (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2753279/Scotland-face-10-year-economic-slowdown-independence-warns-business-chief-fresh-blow-Salmond.html)

Jim Sillars isn't a member of the SNP


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: YL on September 13, 2014, 09:13:34 AM
Out of curiosty have you visited Shetland or have relatives there?

No, I just picked on it because it's the most geographically distinct (and probably the one most often mentioned by the people who suggest some areas might want to stay in the UK).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: bore on September 13, 2014, 09:14:09 AM
Relevant. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6vDzf-wSbk)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 13, 2014, 09:23:02 AM
SNP leader threatens scaremongering business leaders with "day of reckoning".

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2753279/Scotland-face-10-year-economic-slowdown-independence-warns-business-chief-fresh-blow-Salmond.html (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2753279/Scotland-face-10-year-economic-slowdown-independence-warns-business-chief-fresh-blow-Salmond.html)

Jim Sillars isn't a member of the SNP

Okay, I see he is a former SNP left winger squeezed out in the early 90s. So its either deliberate manipulation or ignorance when the journalist calls him an "SNP grandee", probably the latter given the source.

So whats Sillars position in the Yes campaign then? (since they have pics of him campaigning with Salmond).



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2014, 09:26:23 AM
I found out George Galloway is against independence. As if I didn't feel strongly enough about the Yes campaign...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Frodo on September 13, 2014, 10:35:08 AM
It isn't just native Scots who want independence (http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2024527952_apxbritainnewscots.html):

Quote
Across Scotland, there are some 140,000 people who class themselves as Asian Scots, along with around 30,000 Africans, 7,000 from the Caribbean, 55,000 Poles and over 160,000 other non-British EU Citizens eligible to vote in the landmark referendum. These "New Scots" represent more than 4 percent of the population and with the polls putting both sides of the debate neck-and-neck just days before Thursday's vote, their views could be critical. (...)

Research by the Center on Dynamics of Ethnicity, based at Glasgow University, recently found that minority groups in Scotland are more likely to claim a Scottish identity when compared to minority groups in England deciding whether to choose an English identity. Overall 94 percent of those from ethnic communities born in Scotland identify as being Scottish rather than British -- likely giving independence forces a boost.

For many ethnic minority voters, contrasting attitudes on immigration between Scotland and the rest of the U.K. are a prominent factor in their decision making. Scotland, with a population of around just 5 million, wants a more open policy to attract people and talent, while the British government is under political pressure to curb immigration.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 13, 2014, 11:07:57 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etKV3uZ-CeE

I'm somewhere at the far right 14 seconds in :)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 13, 2014, 11:18:34 AM
If Shetland or Orkney or the Western Isles or hell, maybe even Dumfries really wanted to remain in a rump UK then they probably couldn't be stopped, but the thing is they almost certainly won't want to remain in a rump UK.

Basically. The territorial questions being raised aren't much more than content-free trolling (well, probably). The potential for serious clusterfyckery certainly exists, but over other issues.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 13, 2014, 01:41:23 PM
This has been passing around the Twatter machine, no idea how accurate it is, but is suggestive

()

So, does "expected declaration time" mean that each council area will be announced all at once, like the constituencies in Parliamentary elections? Why aren't these times more proportional to population and thus the number of votes to count?

Also, whoever made this seems to differ from much of the forum on question of the Western Isles.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 13, 2014, 02:09:50 PM
ICM

Yes 54
No 46

Opinium

No 53
Yes 47


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 13, 2014, 02:11:00 PM
And we have more polls.

Firstly, ICM have another showing a lead for Yes; 54 to 46. Apparently this was done online (not their usual method) with a smaller than usual sample size and during the same period as the Grauniad/ICM poll published the other day.

And Opium Opinium have a poll showing the opposite picture: 53 No to 47 Yes. Opinium are kind of sketchy.

Don't have the full figures for either, but I'm sure they're out there.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on September 13, 2014, 02:12:09 PM
So, does "expected declaration time" mean that each council area will be announced all at once, like the constituencies in Parliamentary elections?

Yes.

Quote
Why aren't these times more proportional to population and thus the number of votes to count?

Some of these councils cover far-flung areas (Highland alone is bigger than some EU countries) and communications can be quite poor.

There was one general election where the result from one of the island constituencies was severely delayed because the helicopter which had been chartered to bring the ballot boxes in from some of the outlying islands had to be used instead to ferry a heavily pregnant woman to hospital in Inverness.

The Edinburgh counting team faces none of these difficulties, but is still notoriously slow.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 13, 2014, 02:43:19 PM
So after the polls of just the last couple of days alone we can all happily pick our own realities. Isn't that fun.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 13, 2014, 03:09:18 PM
So, does "expected declaration time" mean that each council area will be announced all at once, like the constituencies in Parliamentary elections?

Yes.

Quote
Why aren't these times more proportional to population and thus the number of votes to count?

Some of these councils cover far-flung areas (Highland alone is bigger than some EU countries) and communications can be quite poor.

There was one general election where the result from one of the island constituencies was severely delayed because the helicopter which had been chartered to bring the ballot boxes in from some of the outlying islands had to be used instead to ferry a heavily pregnant woman to hospital in Inverness.

The Edinburgh counting team faces none of these difficulties, but is still notoriously slow.

Thanks. So they physically take the ballots to be counted centrally, rather than counting at the polling stations and communicating the results to the central constituency office?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 13, 2014, 03:34:30 PM
So after the polls of just the last couple of days alone we can all happily pick our own realities. Isn't that fun.

It's a big unknown. Pollsters might not get it right and they will never need to get it right again.

On that note its 50-49 No (not sure where that missing 1% goes) with Panelbase.

50.6 to 49.4


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ObserverIE on September 13, 2014, 05:24:19 PM
So, does "expected declaration time" mean that each council area will be announced all at once, like the constituencies in Parliamentary elections?

Yes.

Quote
Why aren't these times more proportional to population and thus the number of votes to count?

Some of these councils cover far-flung areas (Highland alone is bigger than some EU countries) and communications can be quite poor.

There was one general election where the result from one of the island constituencies was severely delayed because the helicopter which had been chartered to bring the ballot boxes in from some of the outlying islands had to be used instead to ferry a heavily pregnant woman to hospital in Inverness.

The Edinburgh counting team faces none of these difficulties, but is still notoriously slow.

Thanks. So they physically take the ballots to be counted centrally, rather than counting at the polling stations and communicating the results to the central constituency office?

Yes. This is always how it's done in Britain (and Ireland).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2014, 06:05:16 PM
The most recent beheaded journalist was Scottish. He supposedly said he held Cameron responsible for his execution.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: njwes on September 13, 2014, 06:08:08 PM
The most recent beheaded journalist was Scottish. He supposedly said he held Cameron responsible for his execution.

K. So therefore Scotland should vote for independence I guess?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2014, 06:09:20 PM
The most recent beheaded journalist was Scottish. He supposedly said he held Cameron responsible for his execution.

K. So therefore Scotland should vote for independence I guess?

I'm not saying that. Just reporting what will inevitably be a story.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 13, 2014, 06:12:13 PM
Keystone Phil ---- this is about the only issue that you and I will be united on. :)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2014, 06:19:33 PM
Keystone Phil ---- this is about the only issue that you and I will be united on. :)

Common sense will do that.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 13, 2014, 06:51:21 PM
...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: patrick1 on September 13, 2014, 08:09:28 PM
The most recent beheaded journalist was Scottish. He supposedly said he held Cameron responsible for his execution.

He quite obviously is not speaking of free will here. I'm sure the next victim on deck will do the same thing, hopefully he can be rescued before. 


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: patrick1 on September 13, 2014, 08:40:53 PM
The most recent beheaded journalist was Scottish. He supposedly said he held Cameron responsible for his execution.

He quite obviously is not speaking of free will here. I'm sure the next victim on deck will do the same thing, hopefully he can be rescued before. 

Yeah, no kidding. Again, before anyone throws a tantrum, I'm simply posting what is still considered newsworthy. Unless Al, in his usual arrogant and condescending way, wants to say that this being a Scottish journalist and Cameron's reaction make this no more of a story than it already is.

Well no doubt the media will probably push an angle but I just don't see it moving anything.  Those who identify as British and Scottish will be rightfully appalled. I sure the Murdoch press will use in support to commence bombing and some, largely left. elements will be introspective on the matter.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 14, 2014, 01:50:12 AM
The number of people with 'cheap-seats' views on this issue is remarkable.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2014, 03:44:40 AM
In the latest blow to Scottish Independence, "Nessie" defects to England:

()

Quote
It seems that it is not just high-street banks, or hardcore unionists, who are looking for the exit door in Scotland should the country vote yes next week.

A photograph has emerged, purporting to show the Loch Ness Monster swimming in Lake Windermere - in the English Lake District.

Scotland's most famous monster was captured accidentally by a photographer who had set their tripod up at the beauty spot in Cumbria, some way south of the border.

A creature appearing to resemble the reptilian 'Nessie', with her arched back and long neck, can be clearly seen in the distance. It was taken more than 300 miles from Nessie's mythical, eponymous home.

This week, banks RBS, Clyesdale, TSB and Lloyds announced they would move their Scottish operations to England following a Yes vote next Thursday.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11090807/Scottish-independence-now-Nessie-defects.html



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 14, 2014, 04:44:00 AM
YouGov well/badly ratings for three Westminster leaders in Scotland (these are internals, but still):

Cameron - 27/68
Miliband - 19/74
Clegg - 10/85

EDIT: Oh yes, and the internals also show a 45/48 Yes/No split.





Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Lurker on September 14, 2014, 05:53:38 AM
According to Ukpollingreport neither side has gotten a more than 54% support in any of the last 8 polls. In these polls, both sides have a ceiling of 54% and a floor of 46%. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8984#comments

The average of these polls is

YES: 48,6%  --------- NO: 51,4%            

Can't get much closer than this.  


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 14, 2014, 10:27:13 AM
Okay, so Yes Scotland are having a hissy fit over BBC bias.

One of the truisms of British politics is that all sides think the BBC is biased towards the other side. I, personally, think the BBC's coverage has been quite balanced during the referendum.

Yes Scotland also forget they've been backed by Murdoch anyway, but selective amnesia is something that's defined their campaign, so I'm not shocked at this selective outrage.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: pendragon on September 14, 2014, 11:20:21 AM
YouGov well/badly ratings for three Westminster leaders in Scotland (these are internals, but still):

Cameron - 27/68
Miliband - 19/74
Clegg - 10/85

EDIT: Oh yes, and the internals also show a 45/48 Yes/No split.

Cameron is the most popular Westminster leader in Scotland? I have to say that I'd never have predicted that...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 14, 2014, 11:24:17 AM
YouGov well/badly ratings for three Westminster leaders in Scotland (these are internals, but still):

Cameron - 27/68
Miliband - 19/74
Clegg - 10/85

EDIT: Oh yes, and the internals also show a 45/48 Yes/No split.

Cameron is the most popular Westminster leader in Scotland? I have to say that I'd never have predicted that...

Nah, he is the least unpopular.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: bore on September 14, 2014, 12:19:58 PM
Was question how well are they doing their jobs or do you like them?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Badger on September 14, 2014, 01:52:43 PM
Unless Al, in his usual arrogant and condescending way,

Pot, meet kettle.

Anyhoo, my reason for posting here are to say that I'm a huge believer in popular soverignty, but it's downright foolish to leave such a mammoth vastly-reaching event utterly affecting every person to a simple 50%+1 vote. The fact that such an irrevocable change of history should be potentially determined by the momentary (dis)approval of the of the PM or Home Secretary, or some non-story like this twisting the vote based on a momentary sway of fleeting opinion, or bad weather >iminishing turnout in a pro-union stronghold.

There REALLY should be some type of super-majority required; at least 60%, if not 2/3 support. Fwiw, I felt the same way about the Quebec independence referendum,  and and Southern sucession as well.

That is all.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 14, 2014, 02:33:19 PM
Unless Al, in his usual arrogant and condescending way,

Pot, meet kettle.

Anyhoo, my reason for posting here are to say that I'm a huge believer in popular soverignty, but it's downright foolish to leave such a mammoth vastly-reaching event utterly affecting every person to a simple 50%+1 vote. The fact that such an irrevocable change of history should be potentially determined by the momentary (dis)approval of the of the PM or Home Secretary, or some non-story like this twisting the vote based on a momentary sway of fleeting opinion, or bad weather >iminishing turnout in a pro-union stronghold.

There REALLY should be some type of super-majority required; at least 60%, if not 2/3 support. Fwiw, I felt the same way about the Quebec independence referendum,  and and Southern sucession as well.

That is all.

Exactly, the nats love saying that the referendum shouldn't be about Salmond and Sturgeon, completely not realising that they've based a lot of their campaign on bashing Cameron (and Thatcher, of course).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: EPG on September 14, 2014, 04:11:48 PM
The referendum is nothing to do with popular sovereignty. It is a device which will be used by Parliament to form a future decision on Scottish independence. Everyone accepted 50%+1, probably because this isn't some limit on imperfect representative democracy but a consultative exercise of everyone eligible to vote. Denying independence on, say, a 65% vote would have consequences. It's questionable to argue that a 51% victory would reflect ephemeral, transient whims, whereas a 51% slim defeat reflects earnest, longstanding consensus.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 14, 2014, 05:00:48 PM
The referendum is nothing to do with popular sovereignty. It is a device which will be used by Parliament to form a future decision on Scottish independence. Everyone accepted 50%+1, probably because this isn't some limit on imperfect representative democracy but a consultative exercise of everyone eligible to vote. Denying independence on, say, a 65% vote would have consequences. It's questionable to argue that a 51% victory would reflect ephemeral, transient whims, whereas a 51% slim defeat reflects earnest, longstanding consensus.

Actually since the elderly are the most solid No voters you could argue that a small defeat is a lot more transient than a small Yes victory.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: andrew_c on September 15, 2014, 02:42:15 AM
The referendum is all about political gain and nothing else.  If Yes wins, then the SNP would essentially become Scotland's "Natural Governing Party" by default.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Beezer on September 15, 2014, 03:23:39 AM
I wouldn't necessarily say that. Right now it's able to present itself to the electorate as the defender of Scottish interests in a hostile environment (Westminster). If Scotland became independent there'd be no need for that position anymore and a number of nationalist voters would probably move (back) to the other parties.

The same thing would probably happen in an independent Bavaria which I doubt would see the Christian Democrats run away with every election.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 15, 2014, 03:26:31 AM
Which would save the SNP from having to follow through on their promises.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends on September 15, 2014, 04:16:35 AM
I wouldn't necessarily say that. Right now it's able to present itself to the electorate as the defender of Scottish interests in a hostile environment (Westminster). If Scotland became independent there'd be no need for that position anymore and a number of nationalist voters would probably move (back) to the other parties.

The same thing would probably happen in an independent Bavaria which I doubt would see the Christian Democrats run away with every election.

Would Scotland retain the British parties as they exist up there though? UKIP, for starters, would be irrelevant in their current form up in Scotland.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 15, 2014, 04:58:27 AM
I wouldn't necessarily say that. Right now it's able to present itself to the electorate as the defender of Scottish interests in a hostile environment (Westminster). If Scotland became independent there'd be no need for that position anymore and a number of nationalist voters would probably move (back) to the other parties.

The same thing would probably happen in an independent Bavaria which I doubt would see the Christian Democrats run away with every election.

Look at how badly the Bloc Québécois did in the last election.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 15, 2014, 05:54:26 AM
Scotland goes through periods of political dominance; the Liberals from 1832 to the 20's. the Unionists from the 20's to the 50's and Labour from the 50's to the 2000's. Westminster aside, the SNP is already the 'party of government'; it's won every national election bar the 2010 GE since 2007


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DL on September 15, 2014, 06:58:17 AM
The referendum is nothing to do with popular sovereignty. It is a device which will be used by Parliament to form a future decision on Scottish independence. Everyone accepted 50%+1, probably because this isn't some limit on imperfect representative democracy but a consultative exercise of everyone eligible to vote. Denying independence on, say, a 65% vote would have consequences. It's questionable to argue that a 51% victory would reflect ephemeral, transient whims, whereas a 51% slim defeat reflects earnest, longstanding consensus.

Actually since the elderly are the most solid No voters you could argue that a small defeat is a lot more transient than a small Yes victory.

That's what everyone said in Quebec after the 1995 referendum but it hasn't turned out that way and the youngest cohort today are totally disinterested in independence


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: EPG on September 15, 2014, 08:34:04 AM
The referendum is nothing to do with popular sovereignty. It is a device which will be used by Parliament to form a future decision on Scottish independence. Everyone accepted 50%+1, probably because this isn't some limit on imperfect representative democracy but a consultative exercise of everyone eligible to vote. Denying independence on, say, a 65% vote would have consequences. It's questionable to argue that a 51% victory would reflect ephemeral, transient whims, whereas a 51% slim defeat reflects earnest, longstanding consensus.

Actually since the elderly are the most solid No voters you could argue that a small defeat is a lot more transient than a small Yes victory.

Yes, you could. But cohort effects are usually weaker than the impact of age on political preferences. That caveat is not an iron law, though. Scottish independence wouldn't have got this close to victory 30 years ago, when the UK's population was younger overall. So it's likely that there is some cohort effect as well as the (natural?) preference of older voters for the familiar and the traditional.

The referendum is all about political gain and nothing else.  If Yes wins, then the SNP would essentially become Scotland's "Natural Governing Party" by default.

Hardly. Look at Westminster. On bread-and-butter, sovereign-level political matters, Labour outpolls the SNP 2:1 even when losing the UK as a whole.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 15, 2014, 09:52:31 AM
The referendum is nothing to do with popular sovereignty. It is a device which will be used by Parliament to form a future decision on Scottish independence. Everyone accepted 50%+1, probably because this isn't some limit on imperfect representative democracy but a consultative exercise of everyone eligible to vote. Denying independence on, say, a 65% vote would have consequences. It's questionable to argue that a 51% victory would reflect ephemeral, transient whims, whereas a 51% slim defeat reflects earnest, longstanding consensus.

Actually since the elderly are the most solid No voters you could argue that a small defeat is a lot more transient than a small Yes victory.

That's what everyone said in Quebec after the 1995 referendum but it hasn't turned out that way and the youngest cohort today are totally disinterested in independence

There are some significant differences between Scottish and Quebecois nationalism. In Quebec the main objective was to secure the language and that fight has largely been won making separation less relevant today. French Canadians are also a group that exists in several other parts of Canada and by limiting it to Quebec you abandon part of the group. Scottish identity on the other hand is tied to a well defined homeland with a long history.
The objective of Scottish nationalism has mainly been to be able to create a society dominated by centre-left values and get contol of the local economy. Unless the political culture in England swings heavily to the left this is unlikely to be feasible in Britain at large, so that motive will remain relevant.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 15, 2014, 10:57:11 AM
The objective of Scottish nationalism has mainly been to be able to create a society dominated by centre-left values and get contol of the local economy. Unless the political culture in England swings heavily to the left this is unlikely to be feasible in Britain at large, so that motive will remain relevant.

Clearly Brian Souter bankrolls the SNP in order to bring about a socialist millennium.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 15, 2014, 11:03:53 AM
The objective of Scottish nationalism has mainly been to be able to create a society dominated by centre-left values and get control of the local economy. Unless the political culture in England swings heavily to the left this is unlikely to be feasible in Britain at large, so that motive will remain relevant.

Clearly Brian Souter bankrolls the SNP in order to bring about a socialist millennium.

Nah, but the party's appeal depends to a large extent on the different political values of Scots. Its not that all Scots are leftists, of course. But there is a different equilibrium in the Scottish social discourse compared to the English. 


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DL on September 15, 2014, 11:23:00 AM

The objective of Scottish nationalism has mainly been to be able to create a society dominated by centre-left values and get contol of the local economy. Unless the political culture in England swings heavily to the left this is unlikely to be feasible in Britain at large, so that motive will remain relevant.


Actually for a long time a big part of the sovereignist project in Quebec has been built around a sort of cultural narcissism of "we are these enlightened social democratic, post-modern environmentalists in Quebec being dragged down by all those mouth breathing rednecks in the rest of Canada"...but now Canada is governed by the Conservatives who are even more unpopular in Quebec than the British Tories are in Scotland...and yet somehow that doesn't work. Even with a very rightwing federal government with almost no Quebec representation - support for Quebec independence has faded badly and in desperation the sovereignist movement has gotten into xenophobic immigrant bashing etc...

What happens to the zest for independence in Scotland in a few years when all the North Sea oil runs out and Scotland no longer deludes itself into thinking it can afford to go it alone?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 15, 2014, 11:33:24 AM

The objective of Scottish nationalism has mainly been to be able to create a society dominated by centre-left values and get contol of the local economy. Unless the political culture in England swings heavily to the left this is unlikely to be feasible in Britain at large, so that motive will remain relevant.


Actually for a long time a big part of the sovereignist project in Quebec has been built around a sort of cultural narcissism of "we are these enlightened social democratic, post-modern environmentalists in Quebec being dragged down by all those mouth breathing rednecks in the rest of Canada"...but now Canada is governed by the Conservatives who are even more unpopular in Quebec than the British Tories are in Scotland...and yet somehow that doesn't work. Even with a very rightwing federal government with almost no Quebec representation - support for Quebec independence has faded badly and in desperation the sovereignist movement has gotten into xenophobic immigrant bashing etc...

What happens to the zest for independence in Scotland in a few years when all the North Sea oil runs out and Scotland no longer deludes itself into thinking it can afford to go it alone?

AFAIK language was still at the heart of the popular appeal of Quebec nationalism. How many people actually bought into the construction you are describing?  

Regarding Scotlands economic future, they have one of the strongest national brands in the world to build on, which gives them some opportunities Quebec never had. A lot will depend on how the attempt to use oil money to reindustrualize the country turns out.

See also: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198670.msg4300328#msg4300328 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198670.msg4300328#msg4300328)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on September 15, 2014, 12:22:11 PM
Has Nate Silver made a projection yet?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 15, 2014, 01:39:36 PM
Nah, but the party's appeal depends to a large extent on the different political values of Scots. Its not that all Scots are leftists, of course. But there is a different equilibrium in the Scottish social discourse compared to the English. 

Scottish political and social discourse is different, but that's mostly because Scotland has (and always has had) separate institutions and administrative policies to England.1 The idea that people in Scotland have radically different 'values' - collectivist rather than individualist, inherently radical rather than inherently conservative, tolerant rather than bigoted, community minded rather than materialistic and all the rest - to people south of the Tweed is tiresome and hoary bullsh!t.2 There is remarkably little evidence for any of it. Materialism and bigotry are not hard to find in Scotland while radicalism and tolerance are not hard to find in England. When Scottish Nationalists talk about England I hear descriptions of a country that I do not recognise.

Of course a lot of people in Scotland believe all that, but then a lot of people in England believe that Scotland is a postindustrial wasteland populated entirely by sour-faced misers and violent alcoholics and I surely don't need to point out that that is beyond bogus.

Scottish Nationalism is driven instead by the old belief that as Scotland forms a separate society with its own distinct culture - and that it is dwarfed by England and English concerns - it would be better off running its own affairs. Most Scottish voters hate the Tories not because they're right-wing, but because during the 1980s and 1990s they became associated with opposing Scottish interests. Increasingly I suspect that an independent Scotland would be afflicted with a particularly weird case of sinistrisme...

1. Prior to devolution this was all run via the old Scottish Office; the Secretary of State for Scotland controlled (most) domestic policies in Scotland in much the way that the First Minister does under the current arrangement.

2. Some people in Wales make the same argument and that's precious bullsh!t too.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Iosif on September 15, 2014, 02:01:07 PM
The number of people with 'cheap-seats' views on this issue is remarkable.

Haha.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Krago on September 15, 2014, 04:42:48 PM
My friend and I just arrived in Glasgow from Canada (Ontario) as 'referendum tourists'.  We're travelling to Edinburgh on Wednesday, and are looking for a good place to watch the results come in early on Friday morning (2am to 7am!).  Any suggestions?

P.S. If any Scottish Forumites would be willing to share their opinions with us over an ale or two, we're buying!


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 15, 2014, 05:10:53 PM
Nah, but the party's appeal depends to a large extent on the different political values of Scots. Its not that all Scots are leftists, of course. But there is a different equilibrium in the Scottish social discourse compared to the English. 

Scottish political and social discourse is different, but that's mostly because Scotland has (and always has had) separate institutions and administrative policies to England.1 The idea that people in Scotland have radically different 'values' - collectivist rather than individualist, inherently radical rather than inherently conservative, tolerant rather than bigoted, community minded rather than materialistic and all the rest - to people south of the Tweed is tiresome and hoary bullsh!t.2 There is remarkably little evidence for any of it. Materialism and bigotry are not hard to find in Scotland while radicalism and tolerance are not hard to find in England. When Scottish Nationalists talk about England I hear descriptions of a country that I do not recognise.

Of course a lot of people in Scotland believe all that, but then a lot of people in England believe that Scotland is a postindustrial wasteland populated entirely by sour-faced misers and violent alcoholics and I surely don't need to point out that that is beyond bogus.

Scottish Nationalism is driven instead by the old belief that as Scotland forms a separate society with its own distinct culture - and that it is dwarfed by England and English concerns - it would be better off running its own affairs. Most Scottish voters hate the Tories not because they're right-wing, but because during the 1980s and 1990s they became associated with opposing Scottish interests. Increasingly I suspect that an independent Scotland would be afflicted with a particularly weird case of sinistrisme...


Well, you make a caricature out of my position. I would never claim Scots are less materialistic or more tolerant than the English, that would be stupid. They have fewer immigrants, so they have fewer ethnic conflicts on average, but that's about it. There is precious little radicalism in Scottish politics, but in my view a relatively high degree of consensus regarding basic values. I do believe Scotland is more community minded in the sense that they accept a higher degree of common responsibility for social problems than people in (especially Southern) England.

This difference is especially true for centre-right voters. The Scottish centre-right composed mainly of “Tartan Tories” from SNP and LibDems and relatively few Conservatives seems on average to have views that are closer to Scandinavian mainstream centre-right parties than English Tories, who generally have positions that are quite a bit to the right of whats mainstream here. So in that way, Scotland has more of a “Social Democratic ethos” as Kim Minke, who is head of the Danish Cultural Institute in Edinburgh, phrased it. Not that Scots are all Social Democrats, but that most of centre-right voters accept a relatively large role for the public sector and a high degree of responsibility for the weak, as is the case in Scandinavia. Labour voters - on the other hand - seems to be fairly similar in England and Scotland, but there are just more of them north of the border. The equilibrium in Scottish social attitudes is therefore to the left of England. The left is not more radical, but its larger and the right is more centrist giving Scotland a different center of gravity on the socioeconomic scale.

Of course the fact that Scotland is a cultural nation and retained its own separate institutions after the union is the foundation for Scottish nationalism existing at all. Still, the different perception of the role and size of the public sector and a higher emphasis on social cohesion seems to be driving much of the independence project. The idea (dream) that Scotland can create a society that's more inclusive, green, progressive and community based and with smaller class barriers than the present UK seems rather essential to many separatists (but far from all, of course).

Your claim that the Scottish animosity towards Thatcher was not related to ideology seems strange. Thatcherism was perceived as alien in Scotland. The Unionist Conservative tradition in Scotland was far more about “God, King and country”-patriotism and less about low taxes, union busting and privatization than her brand of Conservatism. Her deindustrialization of the country was also a direct result of her ideological views. While "its Scotlands oil" ignited the nationalist flame, it was clearly the Thatcher governments splashing oil on the bonfire that made it big enough to become a force to be reckoned with. And that wasn't just because of her arrogance, an alien set of values played a part in this.

I do agree that there has been written quite a large amount of BS about the difference between English individualism and Scottish collctivism (a large amount of it written by English academics...), but its both my personal experience and my impression from what I have read on the subject that there is a real difference. Still, Scandinavians (ie Danes and Norwegians) may be biased on this since we simply feel closer to Scots culturally and that may influence our perception of their political culture and values.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Badger on September 15, 2014, 05:16:42 PM
@EPG: I see your point, but what I'm saying is that such a utterly drastic proposed change should revert to the status quo of union unless there is a concerted society-wide, if not consensus, at least overwhelming mandate. A 51% yes vote and a 51% no vote both should result in continued union as neither is indicative of the overwhelming mandate that should accompany as momentus a decision as independence. I'm not necessarily saying 65% shouldn't be enough (though I'm not sure 2/3 is insufficient), but at least 60% should be.

Simply put, independence seems premature to put it mildly for any country where opposition is in the high 40 percents.

edit by el caudillo: take the schoolyard brawl elsewhere


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Hash on September 15, 2014, 06:32:11 PM
Note: I've deleted a few posts. I don't care for whatever schoolyard brawl some people are embroiled in here, but take it elsewhere. Don't litter.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on September 15, 2014, 11:11:10 PM
Will BBC be able to cover an election without the use of a swingometer?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Matty on September 16, 2014, 12:42:44 AM
Why are Scottish women so supportive of the "No" side?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 16, 2014, 12:44:46 AM
Why are Scottish women so supportive of the "No" side?

Why would they be supportive of 'Yes'?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 16, 2014, 01:35:41 AM
Why are Scottish women so supportive of the "No" side?

Women are more risk averse than men, that's a phenomenon you can find in all types of decisionmaking (from the financial markets to surgeon procedures and driving habits).

Independence is risky, the union feels safer - especially since women need the welfare state more than men, on average.



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 16, 2014, 01:45:52 AM
Why are Scottish women so supportive of the "No" side?

Women are more risk averse than men, that's a phenomenon you can find in all types of decisionmaking (from the financial markets to surgeon procedures and driving habits).

Independence is risky, the union feels safer - especially since women need the welfare state more than men, on average.



I don't know if it's women being less risk-adverse, but men perhaps connecting their 'Scottishness' to their masculinity.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Joe Republic on September 16, 2014, 04:14:36 AM
The most important question that we, the Atlas Forum, should be asking is... What kind of detail of results maps can we expect to see?  By Westminster/Holyrood constituency?  By council ward??  :D


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 16, 2014, 04:22:45 AM
Hm, Badger has made quite a good point about danger of a country becoming independent via referendum with almost another half of the voters opposing such measure. Perhaps there ought to be higher threshold for making such decision?

The most important question that we, the Atlas Forum, should be asking is... What kind of detail of results maps can we expect to see?  By Westminster/Holyrood constituency?  By council ward??  :D

Is there a word for super-duper-mapgasm? ;)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: MaxQue on September 16, 2014, 04:44:26 AM
The most important question that we, the Atlas Forum, should be asking is... What kind of detail of results maps can we expect to see?  By Westminster/Holyrood constituency?  By council ward??  :D

By council.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 16, 2014, 05:28:25 AM
Hm, Badger has made quite a good point about danger of a country becoming independent via referendum with almost another half of the voters opposing such measure. Perhaps there ought to be higher threshold for making such decision?

While I agree it's unfortunate that 51% of Scots could force the other 49% to become independent, it would be way more unfair to let 41% of Scots force the other 59% to stay united with Britain. Simple majority is the best system because minimizes the number of unhappy voters.

That said, I could support a requirement that YES wins, say, at least 45% of all registered voters - so as to make sure that independence is won through voter apathy.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 16, 2014, 06:09:38 AM
That said, I could support a requirement that YES wins, say, at least 45% of all registered voters - so as to make sure that independence is won through voter apathy.

In the 1979 referendum, it was required that 40% of all registered voters had to vote Yes. Which meant, technically, that if you weren't voting at all you were voting No, or if you had died in the weeks and months prior to the vote without the register being updated your vote was also technically a 'no' (despite you being dead) While the Assembly passed, it didn't get over 40% of the electorate so was shelved.

Which is why registration based thresholds are a generally bad idea!


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 16, 2014, 06:11:48 AM
The most important question that we, the Atlas Forum, should be asking is... What kind of detail of results maps can we expect to see?  By Westminster/Holyrood constituency?  By council ward??  :D

By council and probably (if councils make the data available) by constituency. It should be possible using the polling data and adjusting it to the result and then applying that across each council to 'guesstimate' how wards would have voted. Which I will probably do.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Krago on September 16, 2014, 06:14:27 AM
My friend and I just arrived in Glasgow from Canada (Ontario) as 'referendum tourists'.  We're travelling to Edinburgh on Wednesday, and are looking for a good place to watch the results come in early on Friday morning (2am to 7am!).  Any suggestions?

P.S. If any Scottish Forumites would be willing to share their opinions with us over an ale or two, we're buying!

I've had no responses to my rather generous offer.  No True Scotsman would pass up a free pint!


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 16, 2014, 06:52:35 AM
We definitely need at least a couple more polls given that the weekend's were quite inconclusive. Strange that the polling companies (or, rather, their clients) are still more interested in GE2015 despite this being arguably more significant.

Edit: Ah, there are five due out tomorrow so PB informs me.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ilikeverin on September 16, 2014, 08:30:28 AM
The BBC has just kind of abandoned the idea of neutrality (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-29213416), apparently, at least based on their reporting of the story.  (I'm not sure I understand how this undermines the Yes campaign's message, though; if Scotland were independent, they would have all the powers they need in order to fix the budget shortfall with no strings attached, wouldn't they?)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 16, 2014, 09:33:52 AM
The BBC has just kind of abandoned the idea of neutrality (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-29213416), apparently, at least based on their reporting of the story.

They did that a few years ago;

https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/john-robertson/bbc-bias-and-scots-referendum-new-report


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 16, 2014, 11:32:18 AM
Well, you make a caricature out of my position.

No, I just did what I often do which is use a reply to also make general observations.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 16, 2014, 12:04:13 PM
Looks like Nate Silver has also weighed in on this same debate. (http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/on-policy-scotland-is-far-from-most-of-britain-but-not-london/)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: solarstorm on September 16, 2014, 12:22:46 PM
If the Scots opt for freedom, will they still be allowed to vote for a last time in the parliamentary election next year and above all in the EU referendum?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 16, 2014, 12:30:59 PM
Nobody really knows what will happen in the 2015 general election if a Yes vote occurs. Perhaps no unionist party should bother contesting and just leave the SNP to mop up everything.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Chunk Yogurt for President! on September 16, 2014, 12:40:21 PM
If Scotland secedes, can I change my flag to the Scottish flag?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ChrisDR68 on September 16, 2014, 03:40:13 PM
If the Scots opt for freedom, will they still be allowed to vote for a last time in the parliamentary election next year and above all in the EU referendum?

Freedom?

Do me a favour

70% of Scottish exports goes to England.

That's real freedom isn't it? haha


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Progressive on September 16, 2014, 03:45:48 PM
Can someone explain to me a little bit about the geopolitics and demographic politics of Scotland regarding this referendum.

Is independence more popular in the cities, country, with younger, older, more educated, less educated, north, south, etc?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Lurker on September 16, 2014, 04:00:36 PM
The three new polls tonight all show the same result:

ICM - NO 52%, YES 48%

Opinium - NO 52%, YES 48%

Survation - NO 52%, YES 48%


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 16, 2014, 04:55:48 PM
Here's a hypothetical: how different would these campaigns have been if the question was "Do you wish to remain part of the UK?"


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 16, 2014, 05:02:16 PM
The three new polls tonight all show the same result:

ICM - NO 52%, YES 48%

Opinium - NO 52%, YES 48%

Survation - NO 52%, YES 48%

Glad I changed my prediction to 52,1% No.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 16, 2014, 05:12:20 PM
As pointed out elsewhere, the question of the campaign has been "Could Scotland be an independent country?". The question on the ballot paper is "Should Scotland be an independent country?".


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 16, 2014, 06:07:29 PM
The three new polls tonight all show the same result:

ICM - NO 52%, YES 48%

Opinium - NO 52%, YES 48%

Survation - NO 52%, YES 48%

Glad I changed my prediction to 52,1% No.

It should be noted that a study has been done of referendum polling from across the world. The interesting thing is that the support for change is never underestimated in polling.

Considering there's a clump who remain undecided... if they turn out, and I think they will, they'll break heavily for No... I'm comfortable with my 54-46 No prediction :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 16, 2014, 06:27:49 PM
ICM: No 45, Yes 41
Survation: No 48, Yes 44
Opinium: No 47, Yes 43


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 16, 2014, 06:38:06 PM
It's the undecideds, stupid.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 16, 2014, 06:47:14 PM
We are all afleitch on Thursday.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: KEmperor on September 16, 2014, 07:21:13 PM

That sounds painful.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 16, 2014, 07:22:26 PM

:o

Kemp! Is that really you?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: KEmperor on September 16, 2014, 07:23:25 PM
Yeah, the upcoming vote had me curious as to what was being said on here, so I just finished reading though this thread for the past hour or so.  (Was off from work today and bored)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 16, 2014, 07:31:34 PM

I don't plan on being disappointed?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Boris on September 16, 2014, 07:44:26 PM
Bringing out the big guns!

Quote from: BBC
22:10: Bill Clinton backs No vote The former US President Bill Clinton has urged Scots to vote No in Thursday's independence referendum.
In a statement released by the Clinton Foundation, he reveals why he wants Scotland to remain part of the Union.
He said the proposal to keep the pound as its currency without the support that UK membership provides carries "substantial risks" and adds separation will "require a long complex negotiating process with considerable uncertainty and potential to weaken the Scottish economy".


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 16, 2014, 07:46:06 PM
Wow. He's truly horrible.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 16, 2014, 07:50:55 PM
While it's not his place to say it... Clinton's right.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 16, 2014, 07:56:13 PM
I just love how Bill makes it seem like it's killing him to "have" to weigh in on this. He was "reluctant" to speak his mind on this. Mmmhmmm. ::)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ilikeverin on September 16, 2014, 09:39:16 PM
Yeah, the upcoming vote had me curious as to what was being said on here, so I just finished reading though this thread for the past hour or so.  (Was off from work today and bored)

*hughughug*


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 17, 2014, 12:59:02 AM
ICM: No 45, Yes 41
Survation: No 48, Yes 44
Opinium: No 47, Yes 43

So it's over.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 17, 2014, 01:04:22 AM
ICM: No 45, Yes 41
Survation: No 48, Yes 44
Opinium: No 47, Yes 43

So it's over.

Even if it is (which I think it is) - it'll make sure that next time, the Yes campaign will have more to campaign on besides sentiment... such as concrete plans for the transition and implementation of the post-UK systems. Including plans to retain English based businesses. Which is where they fell down spectacularly. Saying "eh, we'll sort it out later... " isn't good enough.

But considering how much ground they made up... it shows there's a decent appetite out there.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 17, 2014, 01:51:26 AM
Can someone explain to me a little bit about the geopolitics and demographic politics of Scotland regarding this referendum.

Is independence more popular in the cities, country, with younger, older, more educated, less educated, north, south, etc?

Independence is most popular with the 35-55 age group, folowed by youngs and most unpopular with 55+.

Men are more likely to support independence than women, but the gender gap has been closing somewhat.

Working class and lower middle class (E, D, C2 in the British statistical classification) are more supportive of independence than more affluent people (A, B, C1), but they also have more undecideds.

The areas in the south along the border and Edinburgh + Shetland/Orkney are anti-independence, the east and north-east are generally pro-independence, while Glasgow is a key battleground area.

See this for the 4 big cities: http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/10/scottish-independence-the-key-referendum-battlegrounds (http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/10/scottish-independence-the-key-referendum-battlegrounds)

Gully posted this earlier in the thread:

()

It has some quirks, like Western Isles being likely anti-independece, but it should give you a general idea.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 17, 2014, 01:52:43 AM
It appears the true sign of panic has emerged... allegations of vote-rigging, in advance of the vote being rigged, are starting to trickle out. I've been perusing hardcore 'Yes' forums and blogs.... it's a bit scary.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 17, 2014, 01:54:19 AM
It appears the true sign of panic has emerged... allegations of vote-rigging, in advance of the vote being rigged, are starting to trickle out. I've been perusing hardcore 'Yes' forums and blogs.... it's a bit scary.

Could you give some links?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 17, 2014, 03:16:07 AM
ICM: No 45, Yes 41
Survation: No 48, Yes 44
Opinium: No 47, Yes 43

So it's over.

Not so; anything from a ~20 point no win to a ~10 point yes win is within the realms of possibility imo. This is probably the most unpredictable vote in UK (ha ha) history.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 17, 2014, 05:57:34 AM
The Nats online do seem to get spooked fairly easily, so I wouldn't take any notice. The most amusing case was when they blamed unionists for a power cut in Aberdeenshire on Twitter.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 17, 2014, 06:37:43 AM
The Nats online do seem to get spooked fairly easily, so I wouldn't take any notice. The most amusing case was when they blamed unionists for a power cut in Aberdeenshire on Twitter.

Probably an MI5 operation.

19% of Scots believe the referendum result will be rigged and 26% that the MI5 is working to stop Scottish independence.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/11/conspiracy-theories-rife-in-scottish-referendum-debate_n_5805378.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/11/conspiracy-theories-rife-in-scottish-referendum-debate_n_5805378.html)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: SPQR on September 17, 2014, 06:43:09 AM
The three new polls tonight all show the same result:

ICM - NO 52%, YES 48%

Opinium - NO 52%, YES 48%

Survation - NO 52%, YES 48%

Glad I changed my prediction to 52,1% No.

It should be noted that a study has been done of referendum polling from across the world. The interesting thing is that the support for change is never underestimated in polling.

Considering there's a clump who remain undecided... if they turn out, and I think they will, they'll break heavily for No... I'm comfortable with my 54-46 No prediction :P
Same here.
Undecideds will probably decide that,in the end,the status quo is not that bad.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Eraserhead on September 17, 2014, 07:31:21 AM
Final Prediction

No - 51%
Yes - 49%


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 17, 2014, 08:48:43 AM
In the three polls last night, the undecided voters are split by 57,60,62 to Yes. The split in 1979 was 60:40 to Yes but in 1997 it was 83:17 to Yes.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 17, 2014, 09:01:56 AM
A few numbers, because I like numbers:

Scottish independence: Councils braced for huge turnout

Scotland's 32 local authorities are in the final stages of a huge logistical exercise to ensure the smooth running of Thursday's independence referendum.

Across the country, ballot boxes and other paraphernalia are being moved in to the schools and community buildings that will become polling places.

A total of 4,285,323 people have registered to vote.

With turnout expected to top 80%, Thursday looks like being the busiest day in Scottish electoral history.

There are an estimated 4,410,288 people over the age of 16 resident in Scotland, according to 2012 figures from the Scottish government.
Additional staff

This suggests that 97% of the total number of people eligible to vote have registered.

Across the country, local councils will be responsible for the operation of some 2,608 polling places with a total of 5,579 polling stations from 07:00 until 22:00.

The polling places are the schools and halls that voters attend to cast their votes. The stations are the designated rooms within the polling places which handle voters based on where they live.

In most areas, a maximum of 800 voters have been allocated to each polling station and many will allocate additional staff to assist during busy times.

(...)

Nationally, a total of 789,024 people applied for a postal vote, which is the largest volume of registration for postal votes ever in Scotland.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29235191


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 17, 2014, 09:05:51 AM
So, there are 4,285,323 eligible voters - of which 789,024 vote by mail ballot.

That leaves ca. 3.5 million people on election day (with 90% turnout it would be 3.15 Mio.)

That means 565 voters on average per polling station, in a 15 hour time span.

38 voters/hour in each polling station.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 17, 2014, 10:37:26 AM
The presumably final Panelbase poll: No 50, Yes 45


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: YL on September 17, 2014, 10:39:13 AM
At this point a Yes victory would be pretty bad for the pollsters, collectively.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 17, 2014, 10:41:14 AM
Working class and lower middle class (E, D, C2 in the British statistical classification) are more supportive of independence than more affluent people (A, B, C1), but they also have more undecideds.

The NRS social grade, yes. Unfortunately it wasn't very accurate when it was devised in the 1960s and is laughable now, but still the polling companies use it (I suspect partly because clients have got so used to those reassuring letters - morons).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: angus on September 17, 2014, 10:45:12 AM
31 pages!  With more than twice the population of Scotland, South Sudan's thread only got 33 posts.  Not quite a page and a half.  And that one featured UN peacekeepers, ethnic cleansing, gang rapes, and general mayhem.  Of course, the Yes vote was an easy prediction there, and it ended up being about 99%.








Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 17, 2014, 11:17:03 AM
Ipsos-MORI reported as 51/49 to No.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on September 17, 2014, 12:06:23 PM
It's amazing how every poll shows such a narrow No lead. You'd expect MoE would have a fluke Yes lead or No at 55 or something.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: King on September 17, 2014, 12:21:10 PM
I have a very important question that just dawned on me:

How many No True Scotsman jokes have been made so far?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 17, 2014, 12:22:13 PM
Wait till after the vote.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Lurker on September 17, 2014, 12:34:06 PM
It's amazing how every poll shows such a narrow No lead. You'd expect MoE would have a fluke Yes lead or No at 55 or something.

I found that a bit weird too. 4/5 polls this week have shown the exact same result, 52-48, while the fifth had 51-49. Particularly considering that the polls used to diverge a lot for this election.



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 17, 2014, 12:38:01 PM
It's amazing how every poll shows such a narrow No lead. You'd expect MoE would have a fluke Yes lead or No at 55 or something.

I found that a bit weird too. 4/5 polls this week have shown the exact same result, 52-48, while the fifth had 51-49. Particularly considering that the polls used to diverge a lot for this election.



They have converged. This campaign isn't like a 50/50 campaign because it hasn't been 50/50 since day one. Yes were behind. So you've only started to see occasional Yes leads/drawing equal as it's narrowed in the past few weeks.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: njwes on September 17, 2014, 12:44:07 PM
It's amazing how every poll shows such a narrow No lead. You'd expect MoE would have a fluke Yes lead or No at 55 or something.

At this point all the companies I'm sure are aware that a Yes lead in their poll would be likely embarrassing :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 17, 2014, 12:47:15 PM
Ipsos-MORI figures including the don't knows: Yes 47, No 49

We're due a YouGov in a few hours and a final MORI tomorrow morning, apparently.

Edit: fixed typo, lol


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Angel of Death on September 17, 2014, 01:00:55 PM
Does anyone know of any good live streams with which to follow the vote online?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: njwes on September 17, 2014, 01:29:50 PM
Is there any worry about potential "bad behavior" from some nationalists if the vote fails?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 17, 2014, 01:33:57 PM
Is there any worry about potential "bad behavior" from some nationalists if the vote fails?

Only by those that think we are guilty of bad behaviour. And by bad i mean; heckling and egg throwing.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: YL on September 17, 2014, 03:37:22 PM
Ipsos-MORI figures including the don't knows: Yes 49, No 47

Other way round: No still ahead.

(Details here. (http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3451/Referendum-looks-too-close-to-call.aspx))


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: jaichind on September 17, 2014, 04:01:09 PM
*SCOTTISH VOTE: 47% YES, 53% NO IN SURVATION POLL
*SCOTTISH VOTE: 48% YES, 52% NO IN YOUGOV POLL


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: jaichind on September 17, 2014, 04:01:46 PM
Sorry if I asked this already.  But what time will the polls close? And will there be exit polling allowed?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 17, 2014, 04:04:09 PM
So today's Yes shares are 47, 48 and 49 - exactly the same average as yesterday's. Quite amazing, really.

Sorry if I asked this already.  But what time will the polls close? And will there be exit polling allowed?

10PM over here, 3AM (I think) over there. No exit polling.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: YL on September 17, 2014, 04:04:40 PM
*SCOTTISH VOTE: 47% YES, 53% NO IN SURVATION POLL
*SCOTTISH VOTE: 48% YES, 52% NO IN YOUGOV POLL


The Survation one was N48-Y43 including undecideds.  The YouGov one had a large sample size (over 3000); I haven't seen their figures with undecideds included.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 17, 2014, 04:12:42 PM
So I heard earlier today that the Better Together campaign actually trumpeted Bill Clinton's statement in favor of No.

Regardless of how you feel on the matter of independence, I think everyone can agree that that's just shockingly pathetic by the No camp.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: njwes on September 17, 2014, 04:21:01 PM
So I heard earlier today that the Better Together campaign actually trumpeted Bill Clinton's statement in favor of No.

Regardless of how you feel on the matter of independence, I think everyone can agree that that's just shockingly pathetic by the No camp.

The No campaign has been incredibly pathetic generally. If the No vote does come out ahead, as seems likely, I get the sense that it'll have been largely in spite of Better Together.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: bore on September 17, 2014, 04:31:25 PM
Remarkable levels of activity today. I haven't seen anything even close to the level of political activity that's happening today. Almost every conversation I hear in the street today is about independence.

So today's Yes shares are 47, 48 and 49 - exactly the same average as yesterday's. Quite amazing, really.

Sorry if I asked this already.  But what time will the polls close? And will there be exit polling allowed?

10PM over here, 3AM (I think) over there. No exit polling.

It's 5PM Eastern Time, so you won't even have to have a late night in the US.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Zinneke on September 17, 2014, 04:36:58 PM
So I heard earlier today that the Better Together campaign actually trumpeted Bill Clinton's statement in favor of No.

Regardless of how you feel on the matter of independence, I think everyone can agree that that's just shockingly pathetic by the No camp.

The No campaign has been incredibly pathetic generally. If the No vote does come out ahead, as seems likely, I get the sense that it'll have been largely in spite of Better Together.

Am I right in saying they'd have been better not running a campaign at all? From the Orange Order to the 3 party leaders stepping into Scotland for the first time in years, it's all been a bit of a muppet show.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: jaichind on September 17, 2014, 04:45:08 PM
I just find it funny that this referendum has Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, David, David Cameron, and George Galloway all on the same side.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 17, 2014, 05:29:18 PM
Remarkable levels of activity today. I haven't seen anything even close to the level of political activity that's happening today. Almost every conversation I hear in the street today is about independence.

So today's Yes shares are 47, 48 and 49 - exactly the same average as yesterday's. Quite amazing, really.

Sorry if I asked this already.  But what time will the polls close? And will there be exit polling allowed?

10PM over here, 3AM (I think) over there. No exit polling.

It's 5PM Eastern Time, so you won't even have to have a late night in the US.

Oops, brain fart. :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: andrew_c on September 17, 2014, 05:50:23 PM
Does anyone know of any good live streams with which to follow the vote online?

Try the BBC webcast.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: njwes on September 17, 2014, 06:14:04 PM
Some good covers on tomorrows newspapers

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-scotland-29233956


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 17, 2014, 06:14:12 PM

Nah, they chose not to use the 700 year anniversary as the date.

Of course they did (ab)use it.

()

()


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on September 17, 2014, 07:13:26 PM
I'm disappointed. 538 has some coverage of this, but not forecast or projection.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 17, 2014, 07:22:02 PM
I'm disappointed. 538 has some coverage of this, but not forecast or projection.

Because the polling is still kind of screwed, there's no benchmarks... you can't really draw a forecast when you only have stand-alone data.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: jaichind on September 17, 2014, 07:24:34 PM
I'm disappointed. 538 has some coverage of this, but not forecast or projection.

Here is a Chinese version of 538 with a projection. This guy uses a combo of polls, various betting sites, GBP, and google searches data.  It comes up with 45.6/54.4 for No.

http://tsjh301.blogspot.com/2014/09/scottish-independence-movement.html


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 17, 2014, 07:31:08 PM
Maybe it would help if they allowed the third option on this one:

()


Title: BBC World coverage of referendum results.
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 17, 2014, 08:01:06 PM
Attention: Americans (and others, I guess)

BBC World will be broadcasting live coverage of the results beginning at 6 PM ET (11 PM in Scotland) tomorrow and will continue for four hours.


Title: Re: BBC World coverage of referendum results.
Post by: KEmperor on September 17, 2014, 09:16:59 PM
Attention: Americans (and others, I guess)

BBC World will be broadcasting live coverage of the results beginning at 6 PM ET (11 PM in Scotland) tomorrow and will continue for four hours.

I have absolutely no idea if I even get that channel.

Edit:  Nevermind, I found it, it's channel 104.  And I don't get it.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Sbane on September 17, 2014, 11:34:14 PM
Attention: Americans (and others, I guess)

BBC World will be broadcasting live coverage of the results beginning at 6 PM ET (11 PM in Scotland) tomorrow and will continue for four hours.

Live stream?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 18, 2014, 01:41:05 AM
Polls are open.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2014, 01:54:30 AM
So, the results should be out tomorrow morning when I'm finished with breakfast @ ca. 7-8 ?

Excellent.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Beet on September 18, 2014, 01:59:23 AM
Regardless of the outcome today, the very fact that such a significant minority of the Scots would vote for independence has made this a fascinating little excursion in history.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2014, 02:01:04 AM
Regardless of the outcome today, the very fact that such a significant minority of the Scots would vote for independence has made this a fascinating little excursion in history.

Please wait until the votes are counted.

Maybe the people are lying to pollsters.

Maybe Yes wins with 52-55%.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 18, 2014, 02:36:21 AM
The fundamental thing is that no polling company has got a true hold on how this thing is going to turn out...

Which makes it, at the very least, an adventure in psephology.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Lurker on September 18, 2014, 02:46:04 AM
The fundamental thing is that no polling company has got a true hold on how this thing is going to turn out...

Which makes it, at the very least, an adventure in psephology.

True. I wouldn't be very surprised if the polls turn out to be way off - in either direction.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: solarstorm on September 18, 2014, 02:49:06 AM
When do the polls close?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: MaxQue on September 18, 2014, 03:00:04 AM

10PM in UK, so, 5PM Eastern.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 18, 2014, 03:00:06 AM
I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: solarstorm on September 18, 2014, 03:10:27 AM

That means 23:00 o'clock CEST? Wow, that's late...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2014, 03:12:38 AM
I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 18, 2014, 03:20:21 AM
I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

Another factor is that this election could get a very high turnout. 97% of adult Scots are registered to vote - including many who had dropped off the electoral roll. So this includes people that pollsters are bad at polling - those who are alienated from politics and never vote, people in temporary housing etc. Since poorer people generally are more inclined to vote yes, they could break for yes.
Also, as a journalist on the Spectator put it: "It seems a fair assumption that people haven’t returned to the electoral roll or registered for the first time to back the status quo."



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 18, 2014, 03:20:38 AM
I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

Isn't the rule of thumb that in decisions of this magnitude undecideds break for the status quo?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2014, 03:31:17 AM
I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

Isn't the rule of thumb that in decisions of this magnitude undecideds break for the status quo?

I don't have any studies on past referendums, but the last polls for Scotland among undecideds are inconclusive and the overall results are well within the MoE. This is still a 50-50 race and I agree with what politicus said about the people who usually never vote and who are secretly poorer and nationalist.

(The article that politicus is looking for was in the "Economist" recently and looked into these poorer neighbourhoods).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: MaxQue on September 18, 2014, 03:34:28 AM

UK polls are always open between 7:00-22:00.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 18, 2014, 03:37:03 AM
I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

Isn't the rule of thumb that in decisions of this magnitude undecideds break for the status quo?

I don't have any studies on past referendums, but the last polls for Scotland among undecideds are inconclusive and the overall results are well within the MoE. This is still a 50-50 race and I agree with what politicus said about the people who usually never vote and who are secretly poorer and nationalist.

(The article that politicus is looking for was in the "Economist" recently and looked into these poorer neighbourhoods).

Yes, but these voters probably are the reason why it's somewhat close in the first place. There's no indication that these people haven't been accounted for in polling (British polls don't use LV screens AFAIK).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2014, 03:40:55 AM
I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

Isn't the rule of thumb that in decisions of this magnitude undecideds break for the status quo?

I don't have any studies on past referendums, but the last polls for Scotland among undecideds are inconclusive and the overall results are well within the MoE. This is still a 50-50 race and I agree with what politicus said about the people who usually never vote and who are secretly poorer and nationalist.

(The article that politicus is looking for was in the "Economist" recently and looked into these poorer neighbourhoods).

Yes, but these voters probably are the reason why it's somewhat close in the first place. There's no indication that these people haven't been accounted for in polling (British polls don't use LV screens AFAIK).

Made some mistake: It should not read "who are secretly poorer and nationalist", but "who are poorer and secretly nationalist".

:P

...

I think Scottish referendum polls are generally weighted by likelyhood to vote, no ?

(Which is basically "likely voters", but the UK posters probably know more).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 18, 2014, 03:43:15 AM
Yeah, I understood the mistake, no trouble. ;)

And anyway, I really hope you're right! :)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2014, 03:45:07 AM
Another [small] game changer ?

https://twitter.com/andy_murray/status/512392618077323264


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: solarstorm on September 18, 2014, 03:52:02 AM
I've got a question:

One person from Britain is called a Briton.
If you refer to the whole nation you say "the British".

What about Scotland?
One person is a Scot.
But what do you call the whole nation?
The Scottish? The Scots? The Scotch?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 18, 2014, 03:55:19 AM
It occurred to me, if this is going to pass "The Doctor" in Doctor Who is going to be played by a foreigner henceforth... :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: MaxQue on September 18, 2014, 03:55:47 AM
I've got a question:

One person from Britain is called a Briton.
If you refer to the whole nation you say "the British".

What about Scotland?
One person is a Scot.
But what do you call the whole nation?
The Scottish? The Scots? The Scotch?

Scottish. Scots is the old language. Scotch is alcohol.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: MaxQue on September 18, 2014, 03:56:22 AM
Another [small] game changer ?

https://twitter.com/andy_murray/status/512392618077323264

Or rather a set changer?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 18, 2014, 04:06:58 AM
I've got a question:

One person from Britain is called a Briton.
If you refer to the whole nation you say "the British".

What about Scotland?
One person is a Scot.
But what do you call the whole nation?
The Scottish? The Scots? The Scotch?

Scottish. Scots is the old language. Scotch is alcohol.

You could use the Scots, its just a little old fashioned. Think Mary Queen of Scots, Elizabeth would likely also become Queen of Scots if they become independent.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: solarstorm on September 18, 2014, 04:10:05 AM
Thanks, MaxQue and politicus.
According to the Oxford dictionary, Scotch can also refer to the Scottish people, but it seems to be old-fashioned.
So, "the Scottish" is the common term, right?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: MaxQue on September 18, 2014, 04:15:32 AM
Thanks, MaxQue and politicus.
According to the Oxford dictionary, Scotch can also refer to the Scottish people, but it seems to be old-fashioned.
So, "the Scottish" is the common term, right?

Yes.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2014, 04:19:46 AM
Somehow I'd like to see it end up this way:

http://www.divxstage.to/video/5981ad909a9a2

Start at minute 11 & 15 seconds.

;)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: swl on September 18, 2014, 05:02:13 AM
According to the Oxford dictionary, Scotch can also refer to the Scottish people, but it seems to be old-fashioned.
Many people in Scotland consider this term offensive now, at least that's my experience.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 18, 2014, 05:14:27 AM
The Scots


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 18, 2014, 05:49:54 AM
Secretary of state for Scotland and MP for Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael (LibDem) says that Shetland could stay with the UK and become either a crown dependency a la Isle of Man or an autonomous country within the realm as the Faroes are within the Danish realm if there is a big No in Shetland and a narrow Yes in Scotland as a whole. Their MSP Tavish Scott also says there will have to be negotiations if Scotland votes Yes and Shetland votes No and one of the options in crown dependency status.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/17/shetland-may-reconsider-place-scotland-yes-vote-alistair-carmichael (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/17/shetland-may-reconsider-place-scotland-yes-vote-alistair-carmichael)

I have been sceptical about this, but this gives it a lot more weight. And its a big chunk of the Scottish oil (60% if I remember correctly), thats within Shetland waters.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 18, 2014, 05:52:18 AM
Scottish people is fine. The Scots is fine. Scotch is a no no.

I have been sceptical about this, but this gives it a lot more weight. And its a big chunk of the Scottish oil (60% if I remember correctly), thats within Shetland waters.

The Orcadians and Zetlanders may vote no to independence. That is not the same as a 'no' to Scotland or a 'yes' to the UK. It's politically cheeky to infer such things.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Hifly on September 18, 2014, 06:27:00 AM
Just say 'the Scots'.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 18, 2014, 06:27:05 AM
Scottish people is fine. The Scots is fine. Scotch is a no no.

I have been sceptical about this, but this gives it a lot more weight. And its a big chunk of the Scottish oil (60% if I remember correctly), that's within Shetland waters.

The Orcadians and Zetlanders may vote no to independence. That is not the same as a 'no' to Scotland or a 'yes' to the UK. It's politically cheeky to infer such things.

Agreed, but it seems Carmichael and Scott will try it anyway.

SNP has promised increased control over local affairs to Scotland's island communities, but they have been rather vague about it, so maybe its also a bargaining chip.

Personally I think Shetland and Orkney autonomy within Scotland would be much more desirable.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Diouf on September 18, 2014, 06:28:38 AM
538 did make this rough guide: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/a-rough-guide-to-watching-the-scottish-independence-vote/

At the bottom there is a table with estimated reporting time, SNP lean in 2011, and percentage of electorate for each of the 32 local councils which will declare results.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Gass3268 on September 18, 2014, 06:43:27 AM
Quote
The White House        ✔ @WhiteHouse
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The UK is an extraordinary partner for America and a force for good in an unstable world. I hope it remains strong, robust and united. -bo


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Franzl on September 18, 2014, 06:46:04 AM
Quote
The White House        ✔ @WhiteHouse
Follow
The UK is an extraordinary partner for America and a force for good in an unstable world. I hope it remains strong, robust and united. -bo

Translation: The UK does what we want and doesn't ask inconvenient questions.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 18, 2014, 06:57:44 AM
Quote
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The UK is an extraordinary partner for America and a force for good in an unstable world. I hope it remains strong, robust and united. -bo

Opposition to Scottish independence just became a prerequisite in the 2016 GOP Presidential primary.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 18, 2014, 07:24:26 AM
Quote
The White House        ✔ @WhiteHouse
Follow
The UK is an extraordinary partner for America and a force for good in an unstable world. I hope it remains strong, robust and united. -bo

51st state :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Eraserhead on September 18, 2014, 07:38:30 AM
Obama has the worst initials ever.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Platypus on September 18, 2014, 08:23:17 AM
Why is the Obama's dog tweeting about Scottish independence?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 18, 2014, 08:32:39 AM
Final poll of the campaign - Ipsos-MORI - says No 53, Yes 47.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: bore on September 18, 2014, 08:33:40 AM
Just voted. There is going to be enormous turn out. There was a very steady stream of people at 2 o clock, so I can only imagine what it will be like at 6 or 7.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2014, 10:35:16 AM
Bugs Bunny votes "Yes":

()


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: njwes on September 18, 2014, 11:00:55 AM
Translation: The UK does what we want and doesn't ask inconvenient questions.

I did read a few comments by Yes supporters around the internet early this morning that if the No vote come out on top it'll be as a result of undercover machinations funded and guided by Zionist and/or US forces.... so there's that.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on September 18, 2014, 11:02:41 AM
Perhaps we should have a separate results thread?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: justfollowingtheelections on September 18, 2014, 11:03:09 AM
I would be very surprised if yes doesn't win.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Oakvale on September 18, 2014, 11:16:40 AM
Twitter rumours that some polling stations are closing early due to 100% turnout. Yikes.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2014, 11:19:42 AM
Twitter rumours that some polling stations are closing early due to 100% turnout. Yikes.

This is not unusual in these polarizing elections, especially in rural areas where voting is still seen as a civic duty.

Some precincts might actually have more than 100% turnout, if all the regular people in small-town-precincts vote, plus some tourists from other parts of Scotland who decide to drop off their absentee ballots in these precincts.

That's at least what happens here in elections in a few Spa-towns.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Oakvale on September 18, 2014, 11:21:40 AM
Twitter rumours that some polling stations are closing early due to 100% turnout. Yikes.

This is not unusual in these polarizing elections, especially in rural areas where voting is still seen as a civic duty.

Some precincts might actually have more than 100% turnout, if all the regular people in small-town-precincts vote, plus some tourists from other parts of Scotland who decide to drop off their absentee ballots in these precincts.

That's at least what happens here in elections in a few Spa-towns.

Yeah, I'd imagine they're not literally closing as such because, as you say, people might want to drop off postal votes.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 18, 2014, 11:22:33 AM
I would be very surprised if yes doesn't win.

Why?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: angus on September 18, 2014, 11:22:58 AM

A very foreign concept to Americans, no doubt.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 18, 2014, 11:26:05 AM
Perhaps we should have a separate results thread?

I made one.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: justfollowingtheelections on September 18, 2014, 11:30:36 AM

It's not really based on anything, but it seems to be a once in a lifetime opportunity for Scotland.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: King on September 18, 2014, 11:32:01 AM
Something like this better get 100%... independence should be one of those issues where the cynical "your vote like doesn't matter mannn, it's all the same mannn" people don't apply.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 18, 2014, 11:35:04 AM
Something like this better get 100%... independence should be one of those issues where the cynical "your vote like doesn't matter mannn, it's all the same mannn" people don't apply.

"Only" 97% have registered.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2014, 11:39:09 AM
Something like this better get 100%... independence should be one of those issues where the cynical "your vote like doesn't matter mannn, it's all the same mannn" people don't apply.

"Only" 97% have registered.

Indeed, Scotland doesn't have automatic voter registration that covers ALL people who are citizens of voting-age. That leaves ca. 140.000 people who would normally be eligible to vote, but who didn't register to vote.

Btw, are there any complaints from some of these people who show up at polling places and find out they are not registered and can't vote ?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: njwes on September 18, 2014, 11:39:38 AM
I'm pretty sure No will win. Partly because that's what polls indicate, and partly because elections in Europe always go worse than I expect.

I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

The lying could potentially go the other way too though. It seems like there's a possibility of a "silent majority" situation among No voters--many articles/interviews have indicated a certain level of reluctance or fear among No voters to reveal their opinions publicly. Perhaps that reticence could have carried over to poling.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2014, 11:45:36 AM
Just voted. There is going to be enormous turnout. There was a very steady stream of people at 2 o clock, so I can only imagine what it will be like at 6 or 7.

A good argument for Sunday-voting then.

During workdays, there will be long lines in the morning, lunch-break, and after-work - but on Sunday the flow would be more even.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 18, 2014, 11:55:09 AM
Yeah, it's ridiculous that there are still countries that don't hold elections on Sundays. This is so obviously preferable in every way.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2014, 12:09:19 PM
Rasmussen poll of 1000 Americans:

Do you favor or oppose Scotland becoming an independent nation rather than a part of Great Britain?

30% YES
19% No
51% Undecided

Plus:

Quote
Only 33% think most of their fellow countrymen can even locate Scotland on a map.

Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/europe/september_2014/only_33_of_americans_can_find_scotland_on_a_map)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Oakvale on September 18, 2014, 12:11:02 PM
Rasmussen poll of 1000 Americans:

Do you favor or oppose Scotland becoming an independent nation rather than a part of Great Britain?

30% YES
19% No
51% Undecided

Plus:

Quote
Only 33% think most of their fellow countrymen can even locate Scotland on a map.

Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/europe/september_2014/only_33_of_americans_can_find_scotland_on_a_map)

As I've said the thing I find perplexing about that vastly over-represented 19% on this forum is that I can understand an American supporting Scottish independence for romantic reasons. That makes sense to me. How does an American unionist happen? Some nonsense about Keeping Our Ally Strong!!1 ?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Badger on September 18, 2014, 12:12:29 PM
Hm, Badger has made quite a good point about danger of a country becoming independent via referendum with almost another half of the voters opposing such measure. Perhaps there ought to be higher threshold for making such decision?

While I agree it's unfortunate that 51% of Scots could force the other 49% to become independent, it would be way more unfair to let 41% of Scots force the other 59% to stay united with Britain. Simple majority is the best system because minimizes the number of unhappy voters.

That said, I could support a requirement that YES wins, say, at least 45% of all registered voters - so as to make sure that independence is won through voter apathy.

Perhaps then 50% +1 of all registered voters would make even more sense?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Badger on September 18, 2014, 12:17:56 PM
Rasmussen poll of 1000 Americans:

Do you favor or oppose Scotland becoming an independent nation rather than a part of Great Britain?

30% YES
19% No
51% Undecided

Plus:

Quote
Only 33% think most of their fellow countrymen can even locate Scotland on a map.

Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/europe/september_2014/only_33_of_americans_can_find_scotland_on_a_map)

As I've said the thing I find perplexing out that vastly over-represented 19% on this forum is that I can understand an American supporting Scottish independence for romantic reasons. That makes sense to me. How does an American unionist happen? Some nonsense about Keeping Our Ally Strong!!1 ?

Partially that. Partially wanting to avoid the economic dislocation, both short term and long, and it's ripple effects on the EU and ultimately here at home. Also some of us oppose such dislocation being based on a bare majority principle.

Maybe some liberals may oppose it because they don't want to see Labour and the LDs screwed from losing a big chunk of their base. ;D


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: King on September 18, 2014, 12:18:52 PM
If the country was on the brink of civil war, maybe it will be unfortunate. If Yes wins, one year from now 60+% of Scots will be happy with it. If No wins, 60+% of Scots will be happy with it.

The indifferent middle will support the end result.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Sbane on September 18, 2014, 12:19:37 PM
Rasmussen poll of 1000 Americans:

Do you favor or oppose Scotland becoming an independent nation rather than a part of Great Britain?

30% YES
19% No
51% Undecided

Plus:

Quote
Only 33% think most of their fellow countrymen can even locate Scotland on a map.

Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/europe/september_2014/only_33_of_americans_can_find_scotland_on_a_map)

As I've said the thing I find perplexing about that vastly over-represented 19% on this forum is that I can understand an American supporting Scottish independence for romantic reasons. That makes sense to me. How does an American unionist happen? Some nonsense about Keeping Our Ally Strong!!1 ?

Look, at least in the short term, Scotland is better off staying with the UK. You can argue these issues shouldn't be decided with a short term view but that explains some of the opposition to this plan. The no side needs to have a better thought out plan for an independent Scotland. I am an American who opposes Scotland independence and it has nothing to do with loyalty to the crown.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 18, 2014, 12:21:19 PM
Hm, Badger has made quite a good point about danger of a country becoming independent via referendum with almost another half of the voters opposing such measure. Perhaps there ought to be higher threshold for making such decision?

While I agree it's unfortunate that 51% of Scots could force the other 49% to become independent, it would be way more unfair to let 41% of Scots force the other 59% to stay united with Britain. Simple majority is the best system because minimizes the number of unhappy voters.

That said, I could support a requirement that YES wins, say, at least 45% of all registered voters - so as to make sure that independence is won through voter apathy.

Perhaps then 50% +1 of all registered voters would make even more sense?

50% of registered voters is really a lot though. Even with 90% turnout, that would still mean an effective threshold of 55.6%, which is quite enormous. And really, when turnout is so high, those 10% who don't go to the polls probably wouldn't have any clue how they will vote. It's not like this sort of voter demobilization really determines the outcome. I think a 40-45% threshold is pretty reasonable.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 18, 2014, 12:33:12 PM
To backtore:

1) Edinburgh is expected to be a clear No vote.

2) Many rural areas are strongly pro-independence.

3) While olds are more unionist than youngs there are plenty of places where a majority of senior citizens will vote Yes.




Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Hifly on September 18, 2014, 12:45:46 PM
Yeah, it's ridiculous that there are still countries that don't hold elections on Sundays. This is so obviously preferable in every way.

Unless you live in the Western Isles and want to observe the Sabbath.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2014, 12:47:56 PM
Yeah, it's ridiculous that there are still countries that don't hold elections on Sundays. This is so obviously preferable in every way.

Unless you live in the Western Isles and want to observe the Sabbath.

The religious zeals can vote absentee.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 18, 2014, 01:00:49 PM
Rural polling districts can be very small and if we're talking way out in the sticks there's a tendency to vote early, so it isn't implausible. Remember that this isn't an election.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 18, 2014, 01:04:01 PM
SNP has promised increased control over local affairs to Scotland's island communities, but they have been rather vague about it, so maybe its also a bargaining chip.

It also goes against their centralising nature. But we'll speculate more (if necessary) tomorrow.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2014, 01:04:10 PM
Twitter rumours that some polling stations are closing early due to 100% turnout. Yikes.

What about dead people? Are they immediately cleared from the rolls, or are the precincts in question small enough that no voter has died recently?

The precincts are relatively small, yeah: there's an average of 800 voters per polling station.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 18, 2014, 01:07:45 PM
I wouldn't really rule out a Yes-win.

People often lie to pollsters when it comes to stuff like this and there's a good chunk of undecideds which could swing it to Yes.

Given the general tone and tenor of the campaign, my strong suspicion would be that if people are lying to the pollsters then it's much more likely to be in the other direction. Saying that, I would agree that nothing can be safely ruled out: the polling companies have never handled an electoral event like this before and could easily have got things very wrong (and if a poll is wrong then there's no telling how so or in what way).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: bore on September 18, 2014, 01:16:12 PM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: njwes on September 18, 2014, 01:51:28 PM
Twitter rumours that some polling stations are closing early due to 100% turnout. Yikes.

Nope:

"Despite some rumours on Twitter, Severin Carrell has confirmed with Falkirk council that it is “simply not true” polling stations closed early because 100% of their local voters turned up.

All polling stations will be open until 10pm BST. You’ve still got plenty of time if you haven’t yet voted."


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: afleitch on September 18, 2014, 01:52:04 PM
Voted. Had to wait in a line. Never had to do that in the past twelve years.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Oakvale on September 18, 2014, 01:53:35 PM
Twitter rumours that some polling stations are closing early due to 100% turnout. Yikes.

Nope:

"Despite some rumours on Twitter, Severin Carrell has confirmed with Falkirk council that it is “simply not true” polling stations closed early because 100% of their local voters turned up.

All polling stations will be open until 10pm BST. You’ve still got plenty of time if you haven’t yet voted."

Yes indeed, which is why I posted a few minutes later to that effect.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Fritz on September 18, 2014, 02:59:55 PM
Voted. Had to wait in a line. Never had to do that in the past twelve years.

And how did you vote- I'm guessing yes?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 18, 2014, 03:03:00 PM
Voted. Had to wait in a line. Never had to do that in the past twelve years.

And how did you vote- I'm guessing yes?

()


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: angus on September 18, 2014, 03:06:17 PM

haha.  Even as I posted it I knew someone would bring up Dixville Notch, a place, by the way, that would very likely seem like a foreign concept to most Americans. 


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Oakvale on September 18, 2014, 03:08:34 PM
Voted. Had to wait in a line. Never had to do that in the past twelve years.

And how did you vote- I'm guessing yes?

As I recall afleitch was planning to vote No after being swayed by BRTD's arguments.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Frodo on September 18, 2014, 11:23:54 PM
Now that about 55% of Scotland has voted to remain part of the UK, what impact will this result have on next year's Scottish parliamentary elections?  Will the SNP be adversely impacted by it, or is it likely to have no significant effect? 


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 18, 2014, 11:26:52 PM
Now that about 55% of Scotland has voted to remain part of the UK, what impact will this result have on next year's Scottish parliamentary elections?  Will the SNP be adversely impacted by it, or is it likely to have no significant effect?  

I could see the SNP using the argument that the relatively strong showing got promises of new devolutions and powers. I wonder if there's any chance they'd get enough powers that the UK could be considered a federal state instead of a unitary state. LOL that a unitary state has 4 "countries".


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 18, 2014, 11:45:05 PM
That's an impressive display of ignorance jfern.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 18, 2014, 11:46:01 PM
As for electoral implications... 1) fyck knows at this point, 2) least important thing currently


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ChrisDR68 on September 19, 2014, 03:33:36 PM
I woke up at 4am to go to work and watched the results for 25 minutes.

A number of declarations came through while I was watching. The total aggregate vote started at around 49.7 to 50.3 and ended at 45.4 to 55.6 by the time I'd switched off so the direction of travel was clear there and then.

An exciting 25 minute's viewing overall :D


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: justfollowingtheelections on September 19, 2014, 04:25:01 PM
Why did Dundee vote so differently than the rest of the country? Any explanations from someone who knows the city well?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 19, 2014, 04:31:15 PM
Final map:

()


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Iosif on September 20, 2014, 09:26:27 AM
Where exactly do the SNP go from here?

The biggest loser in all this though is Ed Milliband. Devolution and federalism is a general election issue now.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 20, 2014, 10:21:16 AM
The biggest loser in all this though is Ed Milliband.

Really, dude? This is probably the exact same thing people would say if Yes had won (and the rationale in that case would make only marginally more sense).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 20, 2014, 10:26:27 AM
The biggest loser in all this though is Ed Miliband.

Really, dude? This is probably the exact same thing people would say if Yes had won (and the rationale in that case would make only marginally more sense).

The Scottish Yes is actually genuinely good news for Ed Miliband.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 20, 2014, 10:37:14 AM
Another interesting fact:

Even if there were 100% turnout (all 4.2 Mio. people voting), the "Yes"-side would have needed 80% among those who didn't vote Thursday just to break even and make it a 50-50 race ...


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 20, 2014, 10:46:48 AM
Another interesting fact:

Even if there were 100% turnout (all 4.2 Mio. people voting), the "Yes"-side would have needed 80% among those who didn't vote Thursday just to break even and make it a 50-50 race ...

Or in other words, that it would have taken a 93.5% turnout with all additional voters supporting Yes to make it a 50-50 race.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on September 20, 2014, 11:01:04 AM
Scotland will not become independent (54-46 against).

I knew it already back then ... !

:P

(don't look at my other 2014 predictions plz, some of these are pretty hilarious. Others too, for example Adam thinking Kasich will lose in a landslide to Fitzgerald).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Colbert on September 20, 2014, 11:37:30 AM
if UK decide to leave EU, Scotland could make another referendum : "would you like scotland becoming an independante state AND member of EU"


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: DKrol on September 20, 2014, 02:50:55 PM
if UK decide to leave EU, Scotland could make another referendum : "would you like scotland becoming an independante state AND member of EU"

I doubt the EU would let Scotland slide in like that. They were very clear that, should Yes have won on Thursday, Scotland would have to had apply like any other nation.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on September 20, 2014, 03:05:16 PM
if UK decide to leave EU, Scotland could make another referendum : "would you like Scotland becoming an independent state AND member of EU"

I doubt the EU would let Scotland slide in like that. They were very clear that, should Yes have won on Thursday, Scotland would have to had apply like any other nation.

That question only imply that Scotland in this case would apply for membership at once if it became independent. Of course that wouldn't guarantee membership, but the EU would have no reason to block Scotland if the rest of UK left. That would set no dangerous precedent regarding Catalonia or other areas with  secessionist movements and the rUK would obviously not be in a position to block anything.



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ChrisDR68 on September 24, 2014, 04:53:42 PM
The elephant in the room with this whole Scottish independence debate is a pretty strident anti-Englishness within a large cross section of Scottish society.

Would anyone (particularly anyone from Scotland) care to comment on this?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: justfollowingtheelections on September 24, 2014, 07:44:41 PM
The elephant in the room with this whole Scottish independence debate is a pretty strident anti-Englishness within a large cross section of Scottish society.

Would anyone (particularly anyone from Scotland) care to comment on this?

If that was true, wouldn't "Yes" win?  I am not sure I understand what you're getting at.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 18, 2014, 04:26:58 PM
Hi everyone.

Sorry for posting in a thread that no-one has posted in for over a month and on a "dead" topic (at this stage), but I've had a look at the vote shares per council area to try and find a pattern in the results - something that the BBC and Sky were struggling to do on the night.

Yes vote compared to DE social grade
Note: The DE% are the proportion of people living in that council area that fall into the DE social grade (the most impoverished people)

Council Area (Top 10 DE% shown) - DE% - Yes% - Yes Rank
  • Inverclyde - 35.1% - 49.9% - 5th
  • North Ayrshire - 34.8% - 48.9% - 6th
  • West Dunbartonshire - 34.4% - 54.0% - 2nd
  • Glasgow City - 34.0% - 53.5% - 3rd
  • North Lanarkshire - 33.1% - 51.1% - 4th
  • East Ayrshire - 32.8% - 47.2% - 7th
  • Clackmannanshire - 32.4% - 46.2% - 12th
  • Dundee City - 32.4% - 57.3% - 1st
  • Dumfries & Galloway - 31.9% - 34.3% - 30th
  • Renfrewshire - 29.8% - 47.2% - 8th

All of the top eight council areas to vote yes, were in the top ten areas with the highest proportion of people in the DE social grade category. Of course, there is an exception with Dumfries & Galloway, however that's most likely due to having a large English born population (around 18%) compared to the rest of Scotland.

Verdict: I calculated a tolerance of 66.5% between a high DE social grade and a high yes vote.

Yes vote compared to 1997 Vote
Note: I'm only taking into account the proportion of people in each council area who voted for there to be a Scottish Parliament. The question of taxation powers for the parliament is not considered.

Council Area (ordered by 1997% vote) - 1997% - 2014% (Rank)
  • West Dunbartonshire - 84.7% - 54.0% (2)
  • Glasgow City - 83.6% - 53.5% (3)
  • North Lanarkshire - 82.6% - 51.1% (4)
  • East Ayrshire - 81.1% - 47.2% (7)
  • Falkirk - 80.0% - 46.5% (11)
  • Clackmannanshire - 80.0% - 46.2% (12)
  • Midlothian - 79.9% - 43.7% (16)
  • West Lothian - 79.6% - 44.8% (15)
  • Eilean Siar - 79.4% - 46.6% (10)
  • Renfrewshire - 79.0% - 47.2% (8.)
  • Inverclyde - 78.0% - 49.9% (5)
  • South Lanarkshire - 77.8% - 45.3% (13)
  • North Ayrshire - 76.3% - 48.9% (6)
  • Fife - 76.1% - 45.0% (14)
  • Dundee City - 76.0% - 57.3% (1)
  • East Lothain - 74.2% - 38.3% (27)
  • Highland - 72.6% - 47.1% (9)
  • Edinburgh City - 71.9% - 38.9% (25)
  • Aberdeen City - 71.8% - 41.4% (21)
  • East Dunbartonshire - 69.8% - 38.8% (26)
  • Stirling - 68.5% - 40.2% (22)
  • Argyll & Bute - 67.3% - 41.5% (20)
  • Moray - 67.2% - 42.4% (18)
  • South Ayrshire - 66.9% - 42.1% (19)
  • Angus - 64.7% - 43.7% (17)
  • Aberdeenshire - 63.9% - 39.6% (24)
  • Scottish Borders - 62.8% - 33.4% (31)
  • Shetland - 62.4% - 36.3% (29)
  • Perth & Kinross - 61.7% - 39.8% (23)
  • East Renfrewshire - 61.7% - 36.8% (28)
  • Dumfries & Galloway - 60.7% - 34.3% (30)
  • Orkney - 57.3% - 32.8% (32)

Generally, the highest yes votes in 1997, were the highest yes votes in 2014. One exception to this being Dundee City - which had the highest yes vote in 2014, but only the 15th highest yes vote in 1997.

Verdict: Despite the Dundee City anomaly, there was a 82.0% tolerance between the two referendum results.

Other noted patterns
  • There was a strong tolerance between a higher life expectancy and a higher no vote. (80.1%)
  • There was a surprise pattern between the percentage of Catholics in a council area and a yes vote. (61.7%)
  • There was a pattern between the percentage of people who have a "British Only National Identity" in a council area and a no vote in that council area. (70.0%)
  • There was a strong tolerance between child poverty in a council area and a higher yes vote. (75.7%)

Notes
  • All data is from the 2011 Scottish Census, excluding life expectancy, child poverty rates and social grade - which is from aggregated local council data.
  • Due to having less than 20 posts, I was unable to add graphs and clearer tables to this post.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: politicus on December 18, 2014, 11:29:56 PM
Nice work, as you can see in thread the Catholic/Yes correlation is not considered surprising around here only "amusing". Expect some jokes about people not wanting to live all that long in a Scotand run by SNP as well.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: YL on December 20, 2014, 04:34:47 AM
Yes, the Catholic thing was mentioned on here at the time (on the results thread, not this one), but it's good to see it confirmed that it appears in the data.  In most areas, of course, we only have authority-level data, but it was also observed in the results thread that in the more local data released by North Lanarkshire council Airdrie was more No than Coatbridge.  (For those who don't know, these are neighbouring towns but Airdrie is very Protestant and Coatbridge very Catholic.)

The socio-economic factors make sense as well; I noticed at the time that in the Glasgow area the middle class suburban districts (East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire) were quite strongly No while the rest of the area tended to Yes.

I think there was a tendency in the media to expect that areas with SNP MPs would be strongest for Yes, but it didn't play out like that (barring Dundee East, I suppose).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: EPG on December 20, 2014, 06:06:26 AM
Thanks to Clyde1998 for the useful correlations.

Yes, the Catholic thing was mentioned on here at the time (on the results thread, not this one), but it's good to see it confirmed that it appears in the data.  In most areas, of course, we only have authority-level data, but it was also observed in the results thread that in the more local data released by North Lanarkshire council Airdrie was more No than Coatbridge.  (For those who don't know, these are neighbouring towns but Airdrie is very Protestant and Coatbridge very Catholic.)

The socio-economic factors make sense as well; I noticed at the time that in the Glasgow area the middle class suburban districts (East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire) were quite strongly No while the rest of the area tended to Yes.

I think there was a tendency in the media to expect that areas with SNP MPs would be strongest for Yes, but it didn't play out like that (barring Dundee East, I suppose).

Is it the case that:
1. Yes vote is "caused" by low socioeconomic status, in the sense that status pre-existed the vote and there does not seem to be any omitted variable;
2. Catholic districts are correlated with low socioeconomic status;
3. Controlling for 1, Catholic areas would not be significantly more likely to vote Yes
?

We need a logistic regression.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: YL on December 20, 2014, 10:02:59 AM
Thanks to Clyde1998 for the useful correlations.

Yes, the Catholic thing was mentioned on here at the time (on the results thread, not this one), but it's good to see it confirmed that it appears in the data.  In most areas, of course, we only have authority-level data, but it was also observed in the results thread that in the more local data released by North Lanarkshire council Airdrie was more No than Coatbridge.  (For those who don't know, these are neighbouring towns but Airdrie is very Protestant and Coatbridge very Catholic.)

The socio-economic factors make sense as well; I noticed at the time that in the Glasgow area the middle class suburban districts (East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire) were quite strongly No while the rest of the area tended to Yes.

I think there was a tendency in the media to expect that areas with SNP MPs would be strongest for Yes, but it didn't play out like that (barring Dundee East, I suppose).

Is it the case that:
1. Yes vote is "caused" by low socioeconomic status, in the sense that status pre-existed the vote and there does not seem to be any omitted variable;
2. Catholic districts are correlated with low socioeconomic status;
3. Controlling for 1, Catholic areas would not be significantly more likely to vote Yes
?

We need a logistic regression.

Yep, and figures from smaller areas...

How do Coatbridge and Airdrie compare on things other than religious background?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2014, 01:36:41 PM
Thanks to Clyde1998 for the useful correlations.

Yes, the Catholic thing was mentioned on here at the time (on the results thread, not this one), but it's good to see it confirmed that it appears in the data.  In most areas, of course, we only have authority-level data, but it was also observed in the results thread that in the more local data released by North Lanarkshire council Airdrie was more No than Coatbridge.  (For those who don't know, these are neighbouring towns but Airdrie is very Protestant and Coatbridge very Catholic.)

The socio-economic factors make sense as well; I noticed at the time that in the Glasgow area the middle class suburban districts (East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire) were quite strongly No while the rest of the area tended to Yes.

I think there was a tendency in the media to expect that areas with SNP MPs would be strongest for Yes, but it didn't play out like that (barring Dundee East, I suppose).

Is it the case that:
1. Yes vote is "caused" by low socioeconomic status, in the sense that status pre-existed the vote and there does not seem to be any omitted variable;
2. Catholic districts are correlated with low socioeconomic status;
3. Controlling for 1, Catholic areas would not be significantly more likely to vote Yes
?

We need a logistic regression.
1 - YesScotland based their campaign on equality - if Scotland was independent, the country would be able to become more equal through changes in policies. The poorer areas would have seen this as an opportunity to increase their socio-economic status, where as richer people may have felt that it could hinder theirs.

2 - There is a 40.5% correlation between high Catholic population and a high DE economic status. The top four catholic areas (Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, West Dunbartonshire, Glasgow) are in the top five for yes support. These are also the only areas where the Catholic population outnumbers the Protestant population. Dundee has a high DE population, but has a relatively lower Catholic population (compared to the aforementioned council areas) - Dundee had the highest Yes vote.

3 - Areas with a high Catholic population were more inclined to vote yes than areas with lower Catholic populations. However, areas with low Catholic populations were still above the national average for a yes vote - such a Highland.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 20, 2014, 01:49:08 PM
In other news, I hear that the price of oil has collapsed.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: EPG on December 20, 2014, 01:59:43 PM
I suppose my question was about whether there was any difference between Catholics and Protestants of similar socioeconomic status.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 20, 2014, 02:07:59 PM
It looks likely, yes.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2014, 02:16:48 PM
I suppose my question was about whether there was any difference between Catholics and Protestants of similar socioeconomic status.
I think Catholics generally voted yes and Protestants generally voted no (although Eilean Siar was around 46% yes, with a large Protestant population). However, only 14 council areas have a Catholic and Protestant total of 50% of their population, so the effect of religion would have been smaller in the remaining 18 areas.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on December 20, 2014, 03:20:59 PM
In other news, I hear that the price of oil has collapsed.

Victory to the Politics of Fear!


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: bore on December 21, 2014, 09:33:38 AM
In the future Patronising Better Together Woman will be seen as a prophet.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 21, 2014, 06:34:02 PM
Alex Salmond is predicting another referendum in 2017.

With the SNP at 51% for the next Scottish election - it might well happen...

Scottish Parliament 2016 Projection (based on today's Survation poll)
SNP - 69 seats (N/C)
Labour - 28 seats (-9)
Conservative - 15 seats (N/C)
Green - 7 seats (+5)
UKIP - 5 seats (+5)
Lib Dem - 4 seats (-1)
Socialists - 1 seat (+1)
Independent - 0 seats (-1)

The pro-independence front is up to 77 (+5) in this projection, with the SNP staying strong and the Greens and Socialists gaining.

If the polls since the referendum are to be believed - then a majority want independence right now.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on December 21, 2014, 06:50:48 PM
Alex Salmond is predicting another referendum in 2017.

With the SNP at 51% for the next Scottish election - it might well happen...

Scottish Parliament 2016 Projection (based on today's Survation poll)
SNP - 69 seats (N/C)
Labour - 28 seats (-9)
Conservative - 15 seats (N/C)
Green - 7 seats (+5)
UKIP - 5 seats (+5)
Lib Dem - 4 seats (-1)
Socialists - 1 seat (+1)
Independent - 0 seats (-1)

The pro-independence front is up to 77 (+5) in this projection, with the SNP staying strong and the Greens and Socialists gaining.

If the polls since the referendum are to be believed - then a majority want independence right now.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11095188/Alex-Salmond-pledges-no-second-Scottish-referendum.html Reminder of this.

And these polls showing independence ahead are, of course, hypothetical. Do you all really need reminding that in the real thing, just 3 months ago, 'No' won by a larger than expected margin.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 21, 2014, 07:04:33 PM
Alex Salmond is predicting another referendum in 2017.

With the SNP at 51% for the next Scottish election - it might well happen...

Scottish Parliament 2016 Projection (based on today's Survation poll)
SNP - 69 seats (N/C)
Labour - 28 seats (-9)
Conservative - 15 seats (N/C)
Green - 7 seats (+5)
UKIP - 5 seats (+5)
Lib Dem - 4 seats (-1)
Socialists - 1 seat (+1)
Independent - 0 seats (-1)

The pro-independence front is up to 77 (+5) in this projection, with the SNP staying strong and the Greens and Socialists gaining.

If the polls since the referendum are to be believed - then a majority want independence right now.
And these polls showing independence ahead are, of course, hypothetical. Do you all really need reminding that in the real thing, just 3 months ago, 'No' won by a larger than expected margin.
Salmond isn't SNP leader anymore - so Sturgeon could put another referendum of the SNP manifesto for the 2016 Scottish election. Salmond did say in his interview - that he believes that there will be an EU referendum in 2017, which would trigger another independence referendum.

The polls only showed two yes leads in 2014 before the referendum. There have been three (of four) showing yes leads since the referendum. Even if independence isn't ahead, then there has almost certainly been movement towards that option.

The final opinion polls, for each pollster, of the referendum showed (including don't knows):
Ipsos Mori - 45% yes.
Survation - 43% yes.
YouGov - 45% yes.
Panelbase - 45% yes.
ICM - 41% yes.
Opinium - 43% yes.

Average - 43.7% yes. The undecided voters split 12.3% to yes and 87.7% to no, which isn't unrealistic.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 21, 2014, 07:10:12 PM
Vote again until you get it right :) :) :)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 21, 2014, 07:13:18 PM
Vote again until you get it right :) :) :)
Neverendum. ;)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Lurker on December 21, 2014, 07:52:08 PM
So, "a generation" apparently means three years. :P


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 22, 2014, 08:52:30 AM
So, "a generation" apparently means three years. :P
The SNP are saying that there will only be another referendum earlier than in the next 10-15 years, if there is a major constitutional change in that time. A 2017 referendum would only take place, if there is a referendum on EU membership, where the UK votes to leave, but Scotland votes to stay - something that looks quite likely at this point.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: ChrisDR68 on January 05, 2015, 11:27:57 AM
Had the Scots voted for independence would the BBC still have collected the licence fee from Scottish households and broadcast to the whole of the British Isles except for Eire?

I presume the alternative would have been similar to how they operate with regard to Eire and studiously avoid that country when doing the weather forecast as if it was a leper colony :D


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Clyde1998 on January 05, 2015, 05:19:22 PM
Had the Scots voted for independence would the BBC still have collected the licence fee from Scottish households and broadcast to the whole of the British Isles except for Eire?

I presume the alternative would have been similar to how they operate with regard to Eire and studiously avoid that country when doing the weather forecast as if it was a leper colony :D
Licence fees would have been payed to the Scottish Government in an independent Scotland to fund the SBS [Scottish Broadcasting Service].

The BBC is actually broadcast in the Republic of Ireland (Eire) due to RTÉ paying the BBC to do so. It wouldn't be surprising if the SBS would have done the same in an independent Scotland. The BBC however puts the Republic in it's Northern Ireland section - so all the local news is from Northern Ireland.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: EPG on January 05, 2015, 06:00:15 PM
The BBC is actually broadcast in the Republic of Ireland (Eire) due to RTÉ paying the BBC to do so.

I don't believe this is true. You can receive some BBC channels on the Astra satellite or by cable, but the Irish broadcaster doesn't pay for it - they are competitors at some very small margin (e.g. showing EastEnders). The equivalent would be to pay a Scottish cable company for their subscription package including UK channels.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014
Post by: Clyde1998 on January 06, 2015, 07:19:27 AM
The BBC is actually broadcast in the Republic of Ireland (Eire) due to RTÉ paying the BBC to do so.

I don't believe this is true. You can receive some BBC channels on the Astra satellite or by cable, but the Irish broadcaster doesn't pay for it - they are competitors at some very small margin (e.g. showing EastEnders). The equivalent would be to pay a Scottish cable company for their subscription package including UK channels.
I had a look:

Historically, people in Ireland were able to get the BBC due to analogue spill over.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0201/127070-communications/

Also, "The Memorandum commits the two Governments [UK & Ireland] to facilitating the widespread availability of RTE services in Northern Ireland on a free-to-air basis, and BBC services in Ireland on a paid for basis."

It seems to be the Irish Government who pay for the BBC.

Also see: UK Gov Website (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/access-to-republic-of-ireland-digital-tv-channels-confirmed-for-northern-ireland)