Talk Elections

Whoops, messed up the poll options there last time :P

Unfortunately I'm thinking option 3 is likely

Walker, but slightly closer than the polls say, so 3.

Walker by 8-10. Lol at anyone voting Barrett, way to be a complete party hack. There is no chance, accept it.

I think Barrett will win by the skin of his nose, probably within a percentage point.

Walker by 4

Not necessarily, Barrett has been closing the gap according to some recent surveys, and Wisconsin has given pollsters a bit of trouble in the past.  So while Walker may have the advantage as of now, a Barrett victory is not out of the question.  

Walker by 1 to 2 points.

Barrett released a few internals showing him within 5 points so that turnout doesn't collapse completely but all the unaffiliated polls have Walker ahead by even more. There is simply no way for Barrett to come out on top. When was the last time Barrett even led in a poll? February?

Walker by 5 or so.

The bloody Democratic primary ended Barret's chances. Walker's base is energized and united.

April 29th, according to Marquette.

No, that was Walker +1.

In their LV poll; their RV poll was Barnett +1.

Yeah but there is no reason to consider a RV poll when presented with an LV poll. The point is that Barrett doesn't have a chance and never did. This was a stupid idea and a terrible strategic move for Democrats. Walker will get a newer and stronger mandate allowing him to go on a right wing rampage and better challengers than Barrett will be scared to run against him in 2014.

Walker by high single-digits -any higher, and Romney will begin to look at him as a serious VP contender. 

Walker, and we'll be very embarrassed.

What Frodo said.

Walker, and the entire effort has been something of an embarrassing waste. I understand the impulse that led to it, but Democrats and Unions have made the classic mistake we always make; expecting voters to persistently (and consistently) hold onto grievances and actually take political action and vote based on an issue they purport to be upset by.

We expect too much of the voters sometimes, and this is going to be our result. All involved really should've known better, and waited until 2014, where they could've simply stoked the fire and used it as a talking point until then, keeping the outrage just at a simmering with those who cared the most, rather than try to keep the entire state caring enough to actually recall him over it. The recurring amnesia amongst the "swing" and "moderate" voters was never going to let this happen from the word go.

Walker is favored, though I wouldn't count out Barrett just yet. We haven't seen a poll in almost a week, and Walker has failed to increase his margin despite the air barrage. If the Democrats can mount a successful GOTV campaign, they can counter Walker's air superiority and win.

I'd give Walker a 2/3 shot of winning.

Walker by about 3 or so.

Didn't Walker overpoll in 2010 already ? Polling 9% ahead of Barrett and getting only a 6% win ?

Walker by 5

Walker by 3-5

Walker will win by 1-3%.

Walker by 3-5+% but I wouldn't be surprised if Barrett won given that Democrats seem to do better in close WI elections then the Republicans.

I'm going full-on wishful thinking and saying it'll be Barrett by about 2-3%

Walker by 2 or 3.

Barrett by a pt or 2

The problem is nobody really knows how to poll.  What is the baseline?  The Marquette poll everyone looked at with Walker up by 6 or 7 got that way because baselines were changed.  No way there are that many undecideds here all breaking for walker.  Another poll, from a dem showed 49-49.  Franklin (the guy who runs the Marquette poll) came out today and praised the dem poll as being accurate that its a dead heat, and importantly, that is what his numbers are showing too.  The dem poll is later, too.

It will all come down to turnout.  If the passion and heat still exists on dem side, Barrett will win by a point or two.  If not, Walker will win by a point or two.  Walker will NOT win by 7.

I'm going to go with Barrett to squeak by.  The latest ads by walker are absolutely ridiculous and smell of a bit of desperation.  The results out of Milwaukee County will be the decider.

The race is tightening, and it looks like it will entirely be a measure of GOTV; since Barrett is consistently tied or leading with independents, if the Democrats can mount a ground game to match Walker's air superiority, they will win. If they can't mobilize their forces, Walker squeaks by.

Lol.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/30/scott-walker-recall-tom-barrett-obama_n_1556893.html?



Walker wins by 6 points.

Walker; by a margin that might not even have us wait for Waukesha reporting (yes, I know, the lady's been replaced, I am joking :)) )

Then, of course, this is a fairly bizarre election, so more than the usual cautions about polling should apply.

Walker by 2, but I wouldn't be surprised if Barrett won.