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Title: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: greenforest32 on May 29, 2012, 06:40:21 AM The current partisan control of state legislatures following the 2010, 2011 elections: http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote-2011.aspx
() Lots of gerrymanders have gone through but for shifts in control I could see: Legislature flips to Democrats - Seems likely for Democrats to win Colorado, Oregon, Minnesota, and Maine. Iowa and New Hampshire might be possible too. There's also New York but I've heard the state senate gerrymander makes it unlikely? Legislature flips to Republicans - I think they have shots in Alaska, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Legislature flips to split - Don't see many chambers flipping outside of Michigan, Wisconsin (already split 16-16 in its senate following the recalls and more are coming up), and Indiana but I'm not familiar with these redistrictings. Were they redrawn anything like the maps for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina that have likely given Republicans control for 10 years in those states? What do you think? And what actually happens in Nebraska's non-partisan, unicameral legislature? :P Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: smoltchanov on May 29, 2012, 06:47:42 AM Generally agree with Democratic and Republican targets, but not splits: redisitricting in almost all those states was a Republican gerrytmandering, so - Republican majorities are likely to be preserved for decade (except, may be, in wave years). Republican unicameral legislature is, technically, nonpartisan, but practically - Republican with about 2:1 Republican majority.
Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: Keystone Phil on May 29, 2012, 11:07:04 AM 2012 will have to be a Dem landslide year for PA to have a shot at going "Split" (House going to the Dems) and even then, I wouldn't bet on it happening. After the 2008 election, the GOP only had a net loss of two seats.
Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: TJ in Oregon on May 29, 2012, 11:27:51 AM Ohio is pretty much the same way. 2012 would have to be a Democratic landslide for the Democrats to take the House. The Senate would be virtually impossible for the Democrats to take in 2012 even though it has less lopsided partisan statistics by district because only half of it is up for re-election and it's currently 23-10 Republican. The Democrats did control the Ohio House from 2009-2011 but lost in redistricting badly, as most of the heavily Democratic inner-city areas lost population, so it would tough for them to repeat that feat.
Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: Torie on May 29, 2012, 11:40:26 AM For CA to flip would require massive vote fraud.
Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: Mr.Phips on May 29, 2012, 11:42:32 AM Democrats take Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Maine, New Hampshire and Iowa, while Republicans take Alaska. Democrats take the Michigan state House and possibly the New York State Senate as well. Maybe the Arizona House for Democrats too.
Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: Mr.Phips on May 29, 2012, 11:44:38 AM The current partisan control of state legislatures following the 2010, 2011 elections: http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote-2011.aspx () Lots of gerrymanders have gone through but for shifts in control I could see: Legislature flips to Democrats - Seems likely for Democrats to win Colorado, Oregon, Minnesota, and Maine. Iowa and New Hampshire might be possible too. There's also New York but I've heard the state senate gerrymander makes it unlikely? Legislature flips to Republicans - I think they have shots in Alaska, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Legislature flips to split - Don't see many chambers flipping outside of Michigan, Wisconsin (already split 16-16 in its senate following the recalls and more are coming up), and Indiana but I'm not familiar with these redistrictings. Were they redrawn anything like the maps for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina that have likely given Republicans control for 10 years in those states? What do you think? And what actually happens in Nebraska's non-partisan, unicameral legislature? :P If Republicans couldnt even get close in the Kentucky House in the 2010 wave, they wont in 2012. The New York State Senate still has a lot of Republicans in 55%+ Obama districts. Jim Alesi just retired in a 55% Obama seat near Rochester and they have a couple of seats on Long Island and the NYC suburbs that will be very tough to hold as well. Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: greenforest32 on May 29, 2012, 12:07:06 PM Yeah, now that I look at the partisan distribution trend of the KY legislature, a 2012 flip does look unlikely: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Kentucky
I wasn't really sure about Arizona either. Was the 2000 census round of redistricting there heavily favored to Republicans (R-trifecta?) to the point that the maps the AZ redistricting commission passed gives Democrats a chance in either/both chambers this year? Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: Mr.Phips on May 29, 2012, 12:30:37 PM Yeah, now that I look at the partisan distribution trend of the KY legislature, a 2012 flip does look unlikely: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Kentucky I wasn't really sure about Arizona either. Was the 2000 census round of redistricting there heavily favored to Republicans (R-trifecta?) to the point that the maps the AZ redistricting commission passed gives Democrats a chance in either/both chambers this year? Yes, this time, the commission picked the Dem leaning maps. Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on May 30, 2012, 10:32:18 PM Arkansas should be fine; the Democrats there aren't exactly progressive. Kentucky's split legislatures will both hold their respective houses, and Alaska currently has a strong Democratic advantage for whatever reason. The GOP overstretched in 2010, it seems. Democrats won't win the heavily gerrymandered New York State Senate, and will definitely win back Minnesota. PA's House could potentially flip, but like Phil I wouldn't count on it.
Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: greenforest32 on May 30, 2012, 11:03:44 PM What about the Wisconsin House? What are the new state legislature maps like there?
Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on May 31, 2012, 01:42:25 AM As gerrymandered as the NY Senate is, there are more than just a couple seats the Republicans hold that on paper they really just shouldn't. The bigger problems for the Democrats there is that ID caucus, and that conservadem in the Bronx who just likes to troll his party and be like Joe Lieberman times ten.
The Minnesota GOP holds many seats not winnable in a non-wave year, the state party is broke, and their legislative leaders are less popular than Rick Scott and John Kasich are in their respective states. It's going to take a massive turnaround for them to hold. Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: Brittain33 on May 31, 2012, 03:45:37 PM I don't think NH flips unless Obama's winning in a landslide.
Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: Mr.Phips on June 01, 2012, 12:26:13 PM I don't think NH flips unless Obama's winning in a landslide. There are LOT of Republicans(probably close to 100) in New Hampshire that won only because they had an R after there name in 2010. Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: Mr.Phips on June 01, 2012, 12:29:17 PM As gerrymandered as the NY Senate is, there are more than just a couple seats the Republicans hold that on paper they really just shouldn't. The bigger problems for the Democrats there is that ID caucus, and that conservadem in the Bronx who just likes to troll his party and be like Joe Lieberman times ten. The Alesi in the Rochester suburbs is 55% Obama and open. Democrats will have a good chance to pick that up. There is also SD-07 where the Republican only won by like 300 votes in 2010 and wasnt changed much in redistricting. Then there is SD-38(?), where Greg Ball won by just 51%-49% in a GOP wave year and actually got bluer in redistricting. Winning these three seats alone would get Democrats back to a 32-31 majority(since the GOP gave themselves a 63rd seat in redistricting). Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: greenforest32 on August 23, 2012, 01:14:25 AM This is like the first article in months covering the topic: http://www.governing.com/blogs/politics/gov-state-legislature-ratings.html
It's not that in-depth Never mind about the map, it was a plugin from my web browser messing things up :P Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: Mr.Phips on August 23, 2012, 02:03:06 AM The 2010 elections really were do or die for Democrats. Losing so many state legislatures likely means being in the minority in Congress and in most state legislatures for at least a generation. That's what Democrats get when they elect a Democratic President who cares more about himself then the party.
Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on August 24, 2012, 10:05:32 PM This is like the first article in months covering the topic: http://www.governing.com/blogs/politics/gov-state-legislature-ratings.html It's not that in-depth Never mind about the map, it was a plugin from my web browser messing things up :P They seem to be a bit too conservative in expecting incumbents to lose, at least in Minnesota. They're right that the House is more likely to flip than the Senate, but it's tough to see the GOP holding either. And the mention of redistricting is weird since the map was drawn by a court, population redistribution may help the Republicans a little, but they still hold too many seats that they really shouldn't be able to outside a wave year on paper. Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: 後援会 on August 25, 2012, 04:04:22 AM Fun fact: after the Wisconsin recalls, the Wisconsin State Senate is currently controlled by Democrats.
However, the Republicans are fairly favored to take back the Senate before a Democrat majority Senate ever gets to actually convene. Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: greenforest32 on August 25, 2012, 09:03:46 AM The 2010 elections really were do or die for Democrats. Losing so many state legislatures likely means being in the minority in Congress and in most state legislatures for at least a generation. That's what Democrats get when they elect a Democratic President who cares more about himself then the party. I could see a decade but a generation? There's always the ability to break a gerrymander through split control such as electing a Governor from the opposing party. For example I think Pennsylvania/Michigan Republicans would lose quite a few seats in 2022 if a Democrat won the 2018 gubernatorial election(s) and vetoed the 2020 gerrymander till a court drew the map. Do agree 2010 was quite painful for Democrats in redistricting. Ohio (if the redistricting initiative fails), North Carolina, Indiana (and probably Wisconsin) are a few new states out of reach due to the new maps. Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: Mr.Phips on August 25, 2012, 03:20:51 PM The 2010 elections really were do or die for Democrats. Losing so many state legislatures likely means being in the minority in Congress and in most state legislatures for at least a generation. That's what Democrats get when they elect a Democratic President who cares more about himself then the party. I could see a decade but a generation? There's always the ability to break a gerrymander through split control such as electing a Governor from the opposing party. For example I think Pennsylvania/Michigan Republicans would lose quite a few seats in 2022 if a Democrat won the 2018 gubernatorial election(s) and vetoed the 2020 gerrymander till a court drew the map. Do agree 2010 was quite painful for Democrats in redistricting. Ohio (if the redistricting initiative fails), North Carolina, Indiana (and probably Wisconsin) are a few new states out of reach due to the new maps. The key to coming back in Ohio is to sweep the statewide offices in 2018, which would allow Democrats to get control of the reapportionment board and redraw the state legislative districts which would give them a good chance to control the state House and even the Senate for the first time since 1982. Wisconsin could be fixed by Democrats electing a governor in 2018. All of the Republican governors elected in the 2010 wave will be term limited out in 2018, giving Democrats a chance to make big gains there just in time for the 2021 redistricting. Democrats should hope that GOP President is elected in 2016 and becomes very unpopular in 2018. Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: greenforest32 on September 06, 2012, 07:47:33 PM Another article on this though it's not as broad as that last one: http://www.pewstates.org/projects/stateline/headlines/democrats-seeking-comeback-in-state-legislatures-85899415634
Quote Republicans also used the redistricting process — which follows the census every ten years — to try to solidify new majorities in Indiana, North Carolina, Michigan, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Were the New Hampshire maps like those other states' too? Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: greenforest32 on September 26, 2012, 04:06:22 PM http://www.pewstates.org/projects/stateline/headlines/arizona-conservatives-face-triple-threat-85899419570
Quote 09/26/2012 .... Part of Arizona Republicans’ problem—if you can call it that—is that they have nowhere to go but down. Democrats did well in most places in 2008, but not Arizona. With favorite son John McCain leading the Republican national ticket, the party picked up seats in both the Arizona House and Senate. Soon after the election, Republican Jan Brewer replaced Democrat Janet Napolitano as governor, after Napolitano left for the Obama administration. In the Republican landslide two years later, the party expanded its edge even further, winning two-to-one majorities in both houses, even though there are only slightly more Republican voters than Democratic ones in the state. Quote Yet there’s more going on this year in Arizona than regression to the mean. In Arizona, a commission that includes two Democrats, two Republicans and one independent handles the once-a-decade process of redrawing legislative districts. Last year, Republicans in the legislature sparred repeatedly with the commission and its independent chair, Colleen Mathis. The legislature even removed Mathis from office—arguing that the commission had broken open meetings laws and drawn districts that violated state constitutional rules—only to have her reinstated by the Arizona Supreme Court. Ultimately, the legislature couldn’t block the commission’s maps. Now, as the election comes into focus, it’s clear that Republicans had reason to be worried. House Speaker Andy Tobin said in August that he expects a majority of 34 to 38 seats, down from the party’s 40-20 edge today. Republicans currently hold the Senate 21-9, but Senate President Steve Pierce says the commission drew 13 Senate districts with clear Democratic registration pluralities. Still, both Republicans and Democrats expect the GOP to return with majorities in January. I could see the state legislature flipping sometime this decade. I don't think 2012 will be the year but November could be surprising in Arizona. Republicans will lose their 2/3 super-majority at the least. Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: greenforest32 on November 07, 2012, 10:07:20 PM The answers so far: http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote.aspx
Legislature flips to Democrats (5) - Colorado (H), Oregon (H), Minnesota (H, S), Maine (H, S), New York (S). Legislature flips to Republicans (2, 3 if you count WI's recalls) - Alaska (S), Arkansas (H, S), Wisconsin (S). Legislature flips to split (1) - New Hampshire (H). Projected post-2012 results partisan control map: () Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: Benj on November 07, 2012, 10:31:42 PM Awesome, Minnesota flipped back! That means we won't see the anti-gay marriage amendment again in 2013 or 2014, when IMO it would have a much better chance of passing (due to different turnout models in off years).
Also, NY Senate is not at all certain yet. Democrats won one race by only 140 votes, so that might change. The Democrat who defeated David Storobin has threatened to caucus with Republicans if he doesn't get a bunch of pretty unreasonable socially conservative demands. Plus it's always possible to buy someone off, like the Republicans did with Pedro Espada and his cohorts a few years ago. Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: greenforest32 on November 07, 2012, 10:53:40 PM Awesome, Minnesota flipped back! That means we won't see the anti-gay marriage amendment again in 2013 or 2014, when IMO it would have a much better chance of passing (due to different turnout models in off years). Also, NY Senate is not at all certain yet. Democrats won one race by only 140 votes, so that might change. The Democrat who defeated David Storobin has threatened to caucus with Republicans if he doesn't get a bunch of pretty unreasonable socially conservative demands. Plus it's always possible to buy someone off, like the Republicans did with Pedro Espada and his cohorts a few years ago. Yeah I've never understood the appeal for the continuation of the cross-chamber (D-House, R-Senate) gerrymander in New York. Cuomo's probably not happy with a Democratic legislature either after that redistricting 'compromise'. Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: greenforest32 on November 08, 2012, 04:11:38 AM Wow it looks like California Democrats hit the 2/3 super-majority in both chambers: http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?section=news/politics&id=8877762
Quote SACRAMENTO (KABC) -- The political balance of power in California is firmly in Democratic hands after surprises at the polls gave Democrats control of both houses of the state legislature. Experts credit the new political district lines drawn by a citizens commission in helping the Senate get to a "supermajority." In the Assembly, the new online voter registration system boosted Democrats. In a stunning election surprise, California voters handed the Democratic Party supermajorities in both legislative houses. It's the state's first simultaneous "supermajority" since 1933. That means Democrats have the two-thirds majority vote necessary not only to raise taxes, but also override gubernatorial vetoes. It'll be even worse for California Republicans when that election-day registration bill kicks in in 2016. Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: Mr.Phips on November 08, 2012, 08:31:32 PM Awesome, Minnesota flipped back! That means we won't see the anti-gay marriage amendment again in 2013 or 2014, when IMO it would have a much better chance of passing (due to different turnout models in off years). Also, NY Senate is not at all certain yet. Democrats won one race by only 140 votes, so that might change. The Democrat who defeated David Storobin has threatened to caucus with Republicans if he doesn't get a bunch of pretty unreasonable socially conservative demands. Plus it's always possible to buy someone off, like the Republicans did with Pedro Espada and his cohorts a few years ago. Absentees usually favor Democrats in most parts of New York, so I am thinking thte Democrat will probably win that Albany area seat. This just shows that there is only so much gerrymandering you can do to protect your majority. Democrats saw the same exact problem in Arkansas. Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: nclib on November 09, 2012, 10:57:12 PM Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God on November 09, 2012, 11:07:54 PM Republicans will still control the Montana Legislature, I think.
Title: Re: Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections? Post by: nclib on November 09, 2012, 11:37:46 PM Republicans will still control the Montana Legislature, I think. Fixed that. |