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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Antonio the Sixth on June 05, 2012, 10:19:01 AM



Title: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 05, 2012, 10:19:01 AM
With less than one year to go and no other election in between, it might be time to start a thread on the next Italian general election. In a lame attempt to imitate Hashemite :P, I'll try to cover the topic as deeply as I can.


A parliamentary election will be held in Italy by April 2013 (it could happen earlier if the current government loses its majority). Both houses of Italy's parliament, the House of Deputies and the Senate, will be up for election. Voting occurs on Sunday and Monday morning.


The background

Summing up everything that happened since the last election would take decades, so I'll try to be short.

The 2008 elections had been won by a right-wing coalition formed by Berlusconi's PdL, Lega Nord and a smaller regionalist party. At 71 years, Silvio Berlusconi formed a government for the third time since he first entered in politics in 1994, a government holding comfortable majorities (around 55%) in both houses.

Troubles for Berlusconi began by mid 2009, when his once best ally, Gianfranco Fini, started distancing from him, regularly taking stances opposed to that of Berlusconi and the government on issues such as justice or immigration. After months of latent conflict with Berlusconi, Fini was eventually kicked out of the party in July 2010. He started his own party, FLI, and brought with him 34 Deputies and 10 Senators from the PdL. The government had lost its majority in the House and there were talks of an imminent downfall. FLI introduced a no-confidence motion which was put to vote on December 14, 2010. However, to the surprise of most, the motion failed by 3 votes, with several opposition MPs switching sides in favor of the government (it is now known that they had been bribed).

From this point on, the government has been considered as being "on life support". Yet, the government held on and managed to find a majority for most of the bills it brought up. Early 2011 saw Berlusconi's popularity steadily decline, as more and more scandals regarding his *cough* lifestyle or his economic activities erupted. The local elections held on May 2011 were a major shock for the right, which lost its historical bastion of Milan in a landslide an several other cities it held. An even bigger blow was dealt when, on 12-13 June, for the first time in 15 years, four abrogative referenda reached the required quorum (50% turnout) to be deemed valid (the referendums repealed the privatization of water distribution, the return to nuclear power and the partial judicial immunity given to the PM, all of which had been passed by the Berlusconi government). It became clear that the government had hit lows in popularity never seen before.

After nearly losing its majority, after suffering major electoral setbacks, the Berlusconi government was struck by the Euro debt crisis. The Italy-Germany spread, still under 200 on early July, was nearing 500 by early November, putting Italy on the verge of default. While the government tried to take a few measures against public debt, its action was constantly parasited by the judicial problems of Berlusconi's entourage, but also by the Lega's growing discontent, as the party was paying the price for its support of Berlusconi. Throughout the fall, Berlusconi was pressured to step down from all sides. On November 8, a bill aimed at reducing debt was passed, with only 308 (of 630) favorable votes, the opposition having abstained massively. By this point, it became clear that the government had lost its majority. Berlusconi officially resigned 4 days later, after the bill officially passed.

While the spread neared 600 and the incumbent government was resolutely calling for snap elections, President Napolitano got both major parties to agree supporting a "technical" government (a government made of non-political figures) led by Economist and former EU Commissioner Mario Monti. By November 16, Monti's government was confirmed by a majority of almost 90% in both houses. Opposition was formed by Lega, which thus broke its decade-lasting alliance with PdL, later joined by Di Pietro's IdV and several extraparliamentary parties. In his first months, Monti passed a first austerity package (first as a decree which was then confirmed by parliament) which significantly raised taxes and massively cut retirement pensions. It then proceeded with "liberalization" measures, aimed to generate competition among economic activities which lacked it, such as taxi drivers or pharmacies. Finally, it passed a labor market reform which reduced guarantees for the employees, particularly regarding the possibility to be reintegrated in the enterprise if a layoff were deemed illegitimate. After a sharp decline until mid-march (falling below 300), the spread is back on the rise since then and now exceeds 400.

Meanwhile, the government's popularity has shown a surprising resiliency. Despite taking measures which have significantly hurt most Italians, and which several observers (both from the right and the left) have deemed unfair, Monti's approvals have remained for a long time around 60%, a level rarely seen in recent years. It has started to decline only in the previous months, and now places in the low 40s. Nowadays, the Italian political debate is centered on what is called "la casta" (the caste), i.e. what is considered as a class of privileged elites (career politicians, leaders of public administrations, university directors, etc) who live at the expense of the population. The privileges of MPs (enormous salaries, for-lifetime pensions, etc.) or the amount of public financing of political parties are particularly hot topics. The old age of politicians and lack of renewal is also a main factor of public frustration. Generally speaking, there is a major distrust about old party bosses and career politicians. This feeling partly explains why Italians are not unhappy to have a nonpartisan government.

Anyways, the major political event of recent days is the surge of Movimento Cinque Stelle, a populist movement (it is not organized enough to be called a party) led by comedian Beppe Grillo. The M5S had been founded in 2009 and had traditionally gathered between 1 and 4% of voters, mostly left-wing protest votes. However, the local elections held in May saw an unexpected surge of M5S vote. In several of the most prominent cities on ballot, M5S candidates, who often are young nobodies coming out of the blue, got double-digit results. The runoff was even more shocking, with M5S winning 4 municipalities throughout Italy, of which, in particular, the city of Parma with its 200,000 inhabitants. While the left held on relatively well, the right (Lega, PdL, and to a lesser extent UDC) utterly collapsed. The most worrying sign was a growing abstention, with only one in two voters showing up on runoffs. Meanwhile, the traditional parties are discussing about hypothetical government reforms, such as changing the election laws, cutting the privileges of political elites, or new anti-corruption measures. But so far it's hard to see anything coming out of this.


The parties

Italy is well-known for having two billion parties, most of whom are irrelevant outfits. Here's a quick summary of the parties which will probably matter next April. Considering the pace at with Italian parties rise, die, merge and split, this list might require several updates between now and Election Day.


The Democratic Party (Partito Democratico, PD) :

It is the main party in the "centrosinistra" (left-wing) coalition and the representative of one of the two political forces which have ruled Italy since 1994.

It was founded in 2007, as a merger of the two major parties of the Italian left: the Democrats of the Left (heir of the historical Italian Communist Party, but by then a classical European social-democratic party) and La Margherita (literally "the daisy", heir of the left-wing branch of Christian Democracy, Italy's natural governing party from 1946 to 1994), as well as a few minor parties. For the details, you can have a look at this chart (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/it/7/7f/Schema_formazione_del_PD.jpg). The first leader of PD was Walter Veltroni, the former mayor of Rome. A relatively charismatic (by the Italian left's standards) politician, he gave the PD a third-way, modernist and pro-market orientation. Veltroni's PD got 33% of the vote in 2008 elections, coming 4 points behind Berlusconi's PdL (but the left-wing coalition overall came 10 points behind the right). Veltroni didn't step down after the defeat, which obviously wasn't his fault, but he stepped down in early 2009 after the PD lost a regional election in Sardinia. The PD subsequently elected former economy minister Pierluigi Bersani, a stale, boring and useless party tool with the charisma of a wet pizza.

Since then, the PD has desperately tried to come up with a valid reason to vote for them apart from "we are not the right". One of the PD's problem is its utter lack of ideological consistency. Having gathered all existing branches of Italy's traditional left, the PD struggles to find a common ideological line which pleases everybody. Its members range from genuine eurosocialists to conservatives in all but name, only gathered by their common hatred of Berlusconi. Antiberlusconism, however, is getting weaker as a cement of left-wing unity now that Berlusconi is politically dead, and not having an real party line might be the only way to prevent the party from exploding. Another problem is the lack of charisma of its political figures. Most of PD bigwigs are exceptionally stale party bosses, who have been there for decades and have nothing to say to their constituents. People like Bersani, Piero Fassino, Rosy Bindi, Dario Franceschini and, of course, the old boss Massimo d'Alema, fit into this category. There are a few "renewers" like 37-year-old Florence mayor Matteo Renzi, who are a bit more charismatic and try to come up with new ideas, but they strive to find a place inside a party.

Despite all this, the PD has been ahead in every single poll conducted in the last two years at least. The massive disappointment among former right-wing voters since Berlusconi's 2010-2011 decadence probably is enough to explain this. Despite polling ahead, indeed, the PD is polling far below its 2008 result, in the mid 20s. If things go as expected, Bersani should lead the PD ahead of the 2013 election, which is probably an extraordinarily stupid choice. Some figures inside the PD have been pushing for the organization of primaries to choose the candidate-PM, but so far the PD apparatus and Bersani have held on. Anyways, it is probable that the next Italian PM will come from the PD, but the Italian left is pretty good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 05, 2012, 10:21:23 AM
The People of Freedom (Il Popolo della Libertà, PdL) :

The dominant party among the "centrodestra" (right-wing) coalition, PdL is the latest incarnation of "political Berlusconism", the right-wing movement gathering around the charismatic figure of Silvio Berlusconi.

It was founded in 2008, at the beginning of the general election campaign, initially as a federation of parties, then evolving into a full party by 2009. The PdL gathered the two biggest parties of the Italian right : Forza Italia, Berlusconi's personalist party, and Alleanza Nazionale (National Alliance), the heir of neofascist MSI led by Gianfranco Fini. It achieved a pretty impressive 37% in 2008, which allowed it to form a government with its traditional ally, Lega Nord, with Berlusconi at its head. With the difficulties experienced by Berlusconi from 2009 on, the PdL has heavily suffered from the growing unpopularity of its historical leader. Following the disaster of the 2011 local elections, Berlusconi tried to give the party some fresh air by announcing he would not run again in 2013, and leaving the lead of the party to Angelino Alfano, his justice minister and hand-picked successor. This, however, wasn't enough to improve the PdL's standing.

When Berlusconi eventually resigned, PdL members, echoed by the right-wing media, have been the most vocal in calling for new elections (which they would most certainly have lost). However, the PdL eventually resigned itself to supporting Monti's government. This situation had particularly tough consequences for PdL, first of all because it resulted in breaking apart their historical alliance with Lega. Completely isolated (in Italy, alliances are often everything), the PdL was left bloodless by the slow agony of Berlusconi's government, and nonetheless had to stay inside the majority, which by these times is a liability in itself. Since then, things have only got worse for PdL. Either they have been forced to support unpopular measures which they had always opposed (like reintroducing the taxation of the primary residence, which had been abolished by Berlusconi in 2008) or they have appeared as the burden which prevented the government from doing the necessary reforms (on issues such as liberalizations, or even more regarding anti-corruption bills). Following last month's local election, they took one of the biggest hits in their history, losing by the first round in a majority of cities like Genova, Parma and Palermo. Nowadays, it has fallen below 20% in most polls (which means it lost half of its 2008 voters), and has fallen at the third place in a recently published poll.

The PdL faces several issues which it absolutely needs to solve if it wants to avoid complete collapse. Similarly to the PD, it seriously lacks the internal consistency which it would need to formulate a coherent policy plank. A lot of ink has been spilled about the fundamental incompatibility between "ex-Forza Italia" and "ex-AN" members. The first were Berlusconi's historical companions since his entry in politics. Most of them are vibrant neoliberals, who loathe taxes and want to cut government intervention in any possible way. Some of them could maybe qualify as "libertarians" in the US. On the other hand, former AN members are, as predictable with people of fascist origins, fairly statist and authoritarian. It is hard to see how these two kinds of politicians have managed to coexist for 4 years, but the hypothesis of a splinter has been evoked since long and it is not impossible it will eventually come to fruition.

The PdL, however, also has serious problems on its own. First of all, it bears the burden of three and half years of a government which ended up as popular as plague. It is still associated with Berlusconi (who hasn't yet understood that the only thing he can do to help is party would be to try to make himself forget) and his uninterrupted succession of scandals of all sorts. Also, it is exceptionally easy for the Monti government, every time the PdL starts getting critical, to remind them that they put the country in this situation in first place (which is at least in part true). The PdL has, finally, an even deeper issue: it has always been a personalist party, a party based on Berlusconi's personal appeal. What does a personalist party become when the "personality" in question is gone? These days, there is the feeling among many that the PdL has lost its raison d'être with Berlusconi's retirement. This doesn't mean, far from that, that Berlusconi's return would be a good thing for the party. But it means that the party needs to seriously reflect at what it wants to be in the future. The party's leader in the upcoming elections should be Alfano, but he already appears as damaged goods and the hypothesis of his retirement isn't to be excluded. If this happens, however, it's hard to see who would replace him.


Union of the Centre (Unione di Centro, UDC) :

The last embodiment of a succession of various centrist parties heir to the right-wing faction of Christian Democracy, UDC was founded two month before the elections in 2008. It merged three parties, of which the only relevant one was Pierferdinando Casini's Union of Christian Democrats and Centre Democrats (which, certainly by coincidence, used the exact same acronym : UDC), which itself had been formed in 2002 as the merger of three right-wing Christian-Democratic parties : CCD, CDU and European Democracy.

Casini had historically been one of the main allies of Berlusconi, having backed his first government in 1994 and then served as president of the House from 2001 to 2006, and it was considered as a key component of the "centrodestra". After the right's defeat in 2006, however, Casini started distancing from Berlusconi and the right. In 2008, the newly-founded UDC decided to run on its own, outside both main coalitions. It did relatively well, with 5.6% and 36 seats in the House (they got only 3 in the Senate, however), but couldn't prevent the right from winning in a landslide. During the Berlusconi years, it was thus relegated to opposition status, but refused to ally with PD and other left-wing forces.

An opportunity opened for the UDC when Fini broke up with PdL and formed FLI, soon becoming an ideal ally for Casini. The two leaders, along with Francesco Rutelli's API (a splitoff from PD), formed in late 2010 the New Pole For Italy, better known as the "Third Pole" (Terzo Polo). The goal was to form a potential government coalition, providing an alternative to both the left and Berlusconi's right. Even though their attempts to topple Berlusconi failed, the Third Pole gained significant strength throughout 2011 and polled at around 15%, likely benefitting from growing disappointment of right-wing voters toward Berlusconi and the PdL-Lega government. The leadership of Third Pole is officially collegial, but Casini is considered as its de-facto leader, since it leads the only party with an established political base.

Since the beginning of Monti's government, Casini and the UDC have been their biggest supporters, always praising the measures they have and attacking the other parties when they criticized the government. Casini had already started calling for a national unity government, as an alternative to Berlusconi's, several months earlier. However, the UDC has not really benefitted from its central position inside the Monti majority, and since the beginning of the year it has lost a couple percentage points. The Third Pole's results in last month's local elections, while not as catastrophic as those of PdL, were significantly disappointing and there are now talks about disbanding the coalition.

With poll numbers around 7%, UDC is still polling fairly well so far, but nobody knows what it could do with such result. Casini's dream has always been to make of Monti their own candidate-PM, so as to take the lead of a grand "national salvation" coalition. But Monti has always claimed his will to retire from politics after the 2013 elections, and considering his recent loss of popularity this might not be a winning strategy anyways.


Italy of Values (Italia dei Valori, IdV) :

Formed in 1998 by former anti-corruption judge Antonio Di Pietro, one of the main figures of the "Mani Pulite" inquiry, IdV is a party whose main purpose is promoting honesty and legality.

In a traditional political spectrum, it would be hard to classify IdV : the party doesn't really claim any ideological belonging. Some opponents have accused the party and its leader of holding a populist and "antipolitical" rhetoric. Anyways, it is possible to describe IdV as a law & order party, meaning a party which emphasizes on the respect of law, the strengthening of judicial bodies and the exemplarity of the political class. While in most countries the term "law & order" is usually associated with right-wing politics, in Italy such a strong stance in favor of legality means, first and foremost, a stance against Berlusconi. Undoubtedly, Di Pietro has been one of his fiercest opponents since Berlusconi entered in politics, vehemently denouncing the multiple corruption scandals he was involved in. For this reason rather than due to a particular ideological affinity, IdV has been part of the left-wing coalition since the early 2000s.

After a poor showing in 2006 (2.3%), IdV took 4.4% in 2008, likely taking many dissatisfied left-wing voters. In the last years, its polling numbers have kept growing, benefitting from the PD's lack of attractiveness and of initiative. During 2011 elections, IdV's candidate in Naples' mayoral election, Luigi De Magistris, eliminated the PD candidate in the first round and subsequently won in a landslide. IdV scored another major win with the success of June 2011's referendums, of which it had been the most vocal proponent - while the PD stayed carefully silent on the issue.

Since then, its momentum has a bit faded away, but it nonetheless still polls pretty high, around 6%. IdV initially took part to the "Monti coalition" and voted for confidence to the new government, but withdrew support soon thereafter, following the first austerity decree. However, it is still considered as part of the left coalition and will most probably run alongside the PD in 2013.


Left Ecology and Freedom (Sinistra Ecologia e Libertà, SEL) :

A radical-left political party founded in 2009 by Nichi Vendola, after his breakup with the paleocommunist PRC. In contrast with Italy's traditional radical left, SEL is closer to the "new left" fashion than to the old paleocommunist brand, adopting a more modern political discourse and opening itself to new thematics such as ecology.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 05, 2012, 10:31:51 AM
Vendola had risen to national prominence in 2005, when he surprisingly won the left-wing primary for the regional election in Apulia, and then the election itself. The election of a gay far-leftist in one of Italy's most conservative regions sure appeared as a political earthquake, despite 2005 having been a left-wing waver year in Italy as a whole. Since then, Vendola has frequently distinguished himself by his outstanding eloquence and the lyricism of his speeches, which significantly renewed the otherwise despairingly stale Italian left-of-the-left. Following his re-election in 2010 (in a less favorable year for the left), SEL experienced several months of momentum, with the publication of polls showing Vendola leading in hypothetical left-wing primaries.

In May 2011, SEL was again the center of political spotlights after its candidate, Giuliano Pisapia, went to win left-wing primaries and then defeated the incumbent mayor of Milan, once considered the "stronghold of Berlusconism". Pisapia's victory became a symbol of the death of berlusconism and the rise of a new Italian left, which didn't refrain from taking courageous stances and could nonetheless win elections, even in conservative places. The "Vendola/Pisapia model" prevailed once again this year, with the success of Genova's new SEL mayor Marco Doria.

However, since Monti took over, Vendola has not been much vocal and SEL's momentum seems gone. Since SEL has no seat in parliament (the radical left got wiped out after 2008 elections), the dilemma "support or not support" has never been a problem for them, but it is obvious that a party like SEL cannot support the kind of measures Monti is bringing up. Vendola is vehemently critical of the government's policies but, like IdV, would probably take part in a left-wing coalition. Its polling numbers are similar to those of IdV, sometimes a tad lower, sometimes a tad higher.

As a personal note, I'm in love with Vendola (politically speaking, of course :P).


Northern League (Lega Nord, Lega) :

The infamous northern regionalist/separatist party founded by Umberto Bossi in 1989, Lega has, for over two decades, been amidst of a myriad of political controversies of all kinds.

It is hard to talk about an "ideology" for such a party, but its main objective, to say so, is the advancement of the interests of the northern regions (the wealthier ones, which, as such, are often put in contribution when it comes to helping the economically backwards South). Initially a regionalist party aiming to turn Italy into a federal republic, the Lega eventually gave rise to the myth of Padania, an imagined country made of Italy's northernmost regions, which represents everything good with Italy while the rest of Italy is nothing else than a burden. A recurring motto of Lega leaders is secession, even though nobody really believes in it. Lega has also developed a considerable amount of weird cults and rituals, stuff that everybody finds ridiculous except their members. They have also become the main voice in Italy of the brand of anti-immigration populism which prospers in the entire Europe, and its rhetoric about immigrants could easily be called hateful and xenophobic.
 
Summing up the history of Lega would take an entire book, so I will try to keep it as short as possible. Lega attracted a considerable amount of support soon after its foundation, polling over 8% in the early 1990s. In 1994, it formed an alliance with Silvio Berlusconi, branded the "Pole of Freedoms", which went to win that year's elections. However, the coalition lasted only for a few months, and when Lega withdrew support, a "technical" government had to be formed. During subsequent parliamentary elections, Lega, running alone, received its highest result to date with over 10%. This peak, however, marked the beginning of decline for the party, which found itself in a difficult financial situation and disappointing electoral results. By 2000, it was forced to come back in Berlusconi's right-wing coalition, of which it remained a loyal member for more than a decade. Reduced to a shadow of its former self in the 2000s, it saw an unexpected comeback during the 2008 election, getting 8% of the vote and thus proving decisive in ensuring the victory of Berlusconi's coalition.

For nearly 3 years, the Lega experienced what could be described as a "golden age". Taking advantage from its pivotal role in the coalition, it has obtained key ministerial portfolios and considerable policy concessions from Berlusconi. Meanwhile, it reached new electoral heights during the 2010 regionals, when it polled 12% and for the first time got to rule two regions (Piemonte and Veneto). The tide started to turn by 2011, when Berlusoni and his government hit record lows. During the local elections that year, Lega suffered major setbacks which sounded as a warning to the party bosses: the leghist grassroots couldn't stand Berlusconi anymore. The party reacted to this by becoming schizophrenic: they spent months yelling about how awful Berlusconi was, about how he needed to go, about how this government sucked, and... stayed in the coalition. They were basically trying to have a cake and eat it, to be in government without taking the blame for the government's unpopularity. As you can imagine, this didn't work very well. What allowed Lega to take a breath of relief were Berlusconi's downfall and the beginning of Monti's government. This gave them an opportunity to pull out of government without looking like traitors like in 1994, and turn out on doing what they prefer doing : opposing. Initially, Lega held on pretty well, as their status as the "only real opponent" gave them the possibility to exploit popular discontent at Monti's measures.

Until... the sh*tstorm erupted. In early April of this year, it was revealed that Bossi and his closest allies in the party had massively embezzled the public money destined to financing the party for, among other things, "remunerating" Bossi's sons, or buying his son - nicknamed "the Trout" for reasons I'll let you guess - some diplomas in Albania. It was also revealed they had links with Calabrese mafia and with some random trafficking in Tanzania (yes, for real !). In short, the biggest sh*tstorm one could possibly think of. So big that Bossi actually had to resign from its leadership position, and is likely to stay away from spotlights from now on. In order to give you an idea, Bossi was this guy unable to articulate a single syllable, whose entire vocabulary consisted in "secessione", "Padania", and random insults/swear words. So yeah, this guy never resigned after realizing he was a living joke, but he had to resign after this.

So, anyways, Bossi's downfall left room for the long-awaited takeover by his historical rival, Roberto Maroni. Maroni, who is slightly more competent than his fellow party members, had been in veiled (but evident) conflict with Bossi and his clique (the so-called "magic circle") since the final year of Berlusconi's government, since he wanted the Lega to distance with it more markedly, whereas Bossi stayed more loyal to the old right-wing alliance. The election to replace Bossi has not been held yet, but there is little doubt Maroni will win. He has already started to talk about the "new Lega" (despite maintaining façade unity with Bossi) and hopes to restore the party's image as the "party of the people", but it won't be an easy task, to say least. During last month's local elections, the Lega lost all the municipalities it held safe one, Verona (whose mayor, Flavio Tosi, is in bad terms with Bossi).

Nearing 10% not so far ago, Lega is now reduced to roughly 5% in recent polls, and doesn't have an easy way out of mess, now that M5S replaced it as the standard-bearer of anti-establishment populism. The party, like PdL, was centered around Bossi's charismatic figure (someone should, once, try to explain me how the flying hell Bossi can be "charismatic", but anyways, he was), and now that the charismatic figure is so irremediably tarnished, a great part of the base has no reason to "believe" in the myth anymore. Just like PdL, it would be stupid to say Lega is "dead". But it certainly faces tough times and pulling the party out of abyss will require an outstanding leadership.


Five-Star Movement (MoVimento 5 Stelle, M5S) :

Why five-star? Why is the V capitalized? Nobody knows. Anyways, M5S is the fad of the time, and next year it might very well achieve an electoral breakthrough equal only to that of Berlusconi's Forza Italia in 1994. It was founded in 2009 by a successful comedian, Beppe Grillo, following several years of militancy. M5S doesn't consider itself as a "party" in the traditional meaning of the word, as it rejects the idea of a structured and hierarchic organization, and prefers the term "movement".

To further complicate things, its position in the political spectrum is still in great part impossible to determine. M5S, indeed, doesn't have a structured ideology, but is rather based on a set of vague policy proposals. Wikipedia helped me to solve the mystery I exposed at the beginning of this section, telling me that the "five stars" stand for its five main political thematics : public water, transportation, development, connectivity and environment. Don't ask me what the f**k "connectivity" means (I guess it has something to do with TEH INTERNETSZ being sooo awesome). As far as coalitions are concerned, M5S refuses to align with any other political party. Until recently, M5S was ranked at the far-left of political spectrum (further left than SEL, for example). Indeed, it is radically ecologist (of the "degrowth" kind), supports preserved public services and greater social justice (though it is hard to find the precise content of all this).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 05, 2012, 10:40:39 AM
All this, however, is a secondary aspect of M5S’s raison d’être. The core of their message, rather, is to say that all politicians suck. If you had to keep only one idea in mind when thinking to M5S, remember this: they are anti-establishment, of the most extremist kind you can imagine. Pointing out the flaws of Italy’s political class has become commonplace among politicians themselves, in order not to appear as completely deluded. M5S, on the other hand, takes it a step further: to them, the whole political class is rotten to its core. Basically, politicians are a class of parasites who live at the taxpayer’s expenses while doing nothing productive, and time has come for the people to get rid of them. All of them. At the end of the day, they think the very system of representative democracy is dead, and seek to replace it with some form of direct democracy functioning through the use of internets and new technologies. There are thus two possible ways to understand the M5S: you could call it either a rabid protest party born out of hatred toward the political class, or a bunch of naive idealists who believe in a completely “different” way to do politics. Whatever you choose, the left-right political spectrum doesn’t really work for this kind of things.

The M5S’s identity is intrinsically tied to its founder, the former comedian Beppe Grillo. Since the movement has no traditional structure, it wouldn’t be entirely correct to call him its leader (especially since he himself indicated he wouldn’t be a candidate to PM in 2013). However you put it, though, it is hard to deny the M5S is his thing. A thing he created out of nowhere and which nobody would even know about if it weren’t for Grillo’s advertisement. It is no wonder if M5S members/candidates are generally called “grillini” (grillists). Anyways, Grillo the political leader is not much different from Grillo the comedian: most of his speeches consist in yelling, imprecating against the political class, throwing insults at random politicians (occasionally, at the “system” as a whole), and prophetizing the imminence of their downfall. He is your classical angry, anti-establishment hero which you like to hear when you are yourself angry at the establishment. His most common catchphrase is “they are all dead” referring to the political class, parties and traditional institutions. Like other anti-establishment hero, there’s nothing he likes more than generating controversy (for example, saying that the government is “worse than mafia” because of taxes).

The early Grillo-backed candidacies (which had started to flourish over a year before the M5S’s official foundation) didn’t meet much success, usually polling between 1% and 4%. According to many, their biggest achievement was to spoil left-wing votes, allowing for the right to win (for example during the 2010 regional election in Piemonte, when the left candidate lost to the right by a 0.4 points margin, with the M5S candidate polling 4%). Things changed, extremely suddenly, in the last few months. The M5S polling numbers started to take off and, since then, the growth has only accelerated. In last month’s locals, M5S mayoral candidates (often totally unknown even at the local level) got excellent results, often taking more than 10% of the votes. In Genova, M5S candidate Paolo Putti won 14% of the vote, beating the PdL candidate and almost qualifying for runoff. But the biggest upset came from Parma, where Federico Pizzarotti, after qualifying for the runoff with 19%, went to defeat his PD opponent in a landslide, taking over 60% of the vote. A party which nobody had ever considered as a serious contender in Italy’s political life suddenly could claim the leadership over a 200 000 inhabitants city (along with 3 smaller municipalities). One month ago, if you had told me this would happen, I probably would have laughed hard and called you a fool. Well, it happened.

So far, the M5Smentum is still on a roll: recent polling now systematically predicts a double-digit score, and a poll even showed the M5S placing second, above the PdL. This is, by any measurable criterion, a major political event which cannot be downplayed as a fluke or a temporary protest vote. Something is going on in Italy, something which drives a sizable number of voters to change decades-long political habits and vote for a party which doesn’t even bother to try looking credible. How to explain such breakthrough? As upsetting as the M5S surge might be, its roots aren’t as obscure as one may initially think. Three factors can be mentioned.

First of all, obviously, the crisis. The lingering recession and rampant unemployment Italy is enduring have been made even worse by the government’s austerity measures. Whether you are a retiree who has seen his (already meager) pension severely cut, or a small entrepreneur on the verge of default because of an unsustainable tax burden (the share of taxes in the Italian GDP is among the highest in Europe – countries with similar rates tend to have, of course, much more effective welfare states and public services), there are plenty of reasons to be angry at the government – at the current government, but even more at past governments who have put Italy in this mess. While Italy’s situation has not reached the levels of Greece or even Spain, the suffering of many Italians, and, even more, their lack of any hope in a better future, ought not to be underestimated.

The second factor lies in the nature Italy’s political class. If Grillo meets so much success when he says politicians suck, that’s because there is a great deal of truth in that. Italian politicians (left and right alike) are, in their great majority, useless, egomaniac, corrupt, stupid, arrogant, stale party tools who don’t give a sh*t about public good and are unable to come up with anything useful for their constituents. It is barely an overstatement to say a new corruption scandal breaks up in Italy every week. While the corruption and general uselessness of Italian politicians is a long-established tradition which people usually don’t mind, the situation has been made untenable since Monti’s government has stressed upon the need for “sacrifices” and pushed forward austerity measures. Suddenly, all the privileges of “la casta” were publically exposed (lifelong pensions for MPs, heads of government agencies literally earning more than the US President, a systematic embezzlement of the public funding of parties, etc…) and the contrast with everyday life led to a huge backlash against politicians as a whole. It is no wonder, in such a situation, that Grillo’s message found such an echo. Especially after traditional parties were repeatedly called out to take action, and systematically proved unable or unwilling to seriously change things.

Finally, there is a highly paradoxical component in the M5S’ recent success. Looking at electoral numbers in places where M5S candidates made a breakthrough, one cannot avoid correlating it, at least to some extent, to the demise of right -wing parties. As it was previously said, both PdL and Lega utterly collapsed during these elections. Where did their voters go? Most of them certainly abstained, explaining why turnout numbers were so abysmal by Italian standards. However, it has been established that a significant share of them have actually switched sides to M5S. Many former right-wing voters, in short, cast a ballot for a party which holds far-left positions on several key issues. As crazy as this might sound, it can make sense in context. What one needs to keep in mind is that many votes for right-wing parties over the past decades were not ideological votes. This is particularly true for Lega, a party well-known for attracting anti-establishment protest voters with its populist rhetoric. When the sh*tstorm broke out, many Lega voters felt betrayed by a party which turned out to be as corrupt as the others (actually, more) and may thus feel attracted by a similarly anti-establishment party like M5S. To a lesser extent, people who had voted for PdL out of adhesion to Berlusconi’s charismatic figure may now find a possible substitute in Grillo, who is an “outsider” like Berlusconi was in 1994. The M5S’ anti-tax rhetoric could also strike a powerful chord among right-wing voters, as could the desire to prevent the left from winning, by whatever means available.

Anyways, all this places M5S in a weird situation ahead of 2013. If its “unlikely coalition” (made of idealist lefties, people angry at “la casta”, eternal protesters, and disaffected right-wing voters) holds on, it is bound to achieve an electoral feat of epic proportions. It could very well displace the PdL as the second party or, in an even crazier scenario, become Italy’s biggest party. Such a breakthrough would have no comparison in the country’s history apart from Forza Italia, the party Berlusconi had founded out of nothing in 1994 and which went to win that year’s elections with 21% of the votes. That being said, this is not the scenario I would personally bet on. Until now, M5S has taken a huge benefit from the conjunctural factors I highlighted below. But populist parties like M5S are highly dependent on the mood swings of the electorate, and a slight improvement in the country’s economy, a couple of serious reforms moralizing political practices, or the reconstruction of a credible right might be enough to turn the tide. With ten months to go, we have all the time needed to discover whether the M5S will prove itself a serious political contender or a mere fad. So far, its polling numbers seem to be settling in the high double-digits, statistically tied with PdL for second place. Any result over 10% will probably be considered as a major success for M5S regardless of the expectances, and would significantly transform Italy’s political landscape.


Other parties :

Some smaller parties don’t deserve full coverage but ought to be mentioned nonetheless.

Future and Freedom for Italy (Futuro e Libertà per l'Italia, FLI) : A splitoff from the PdL founded by Gianfranco Fini in 2010 after his definitive breakup with Berlusconi. FLI clearly positions itself to the right of the political spectrum, seeking to “renew” (translate: deberlusconize) the Italian right and turn it into a modern, liberal right. It was at the centre of political spotlights for a few months in late 2010, when it seemed on the brink of toppling Berlusconi. After such attempt failed on December 14, however, the party struggled to find an appealing message. It was one of the main founders of the Third Pole, but soon found itself overshadowed by Casini’s UDC and has gradually fallen into irrelevancy. It currently polls around 3%.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 05, 2012, 10:55:26 AM
Federation of the Left (Federazione della Sinistra, FdS) : A coalition formed in 2009 by the two old paleocommunist twins, the Party of Communist Refoundation (PRC) and the Party of Italian Communists (PdCI), as well as other minor far-left parties. In parliamentary elections from 1992 to 2006, the two parties together used to perform between 6-9%, and had participated into several governing coalitions with the left. In 2008 however, they got wiped out of parliament, with their common list – The Rainbow Left – unable to reach the 4% threshold. Since then, PRC and PdCI have been unable to regain their past prominence, and their polling numbers as FdS are stuck around 2-3%. They have particularly suffered from competition with Vendola’s SEL, which appears as a more modern and credible left-wing force. It is unclear whether the FdS plans to run in coalition with the PD and other left parties for 2013, but the media tend to assume it eventually will.

The Right (La Destra) : A hard-right (arguably far-right) party founded by former AN bigwig Francesco Storace in 2007, after his breakup with Fini. Storace, in disagreement with AN’s liberal and centre-right turn under Fini, sought to create a nationalist, socially conservative and vaguely “social” right-wing force. La Destra refused to merge into the PdL and stood alone during the 2008 elections, polling slightly above 2% and winning no seat. They were invited to enter the Berlusconi government in 2011, thus effectively rejoining the mainstream right coalition. Apart from the peculiarity of being the only party which remains loyal to the PdL, it is a pretty irrelevant party, polling between 2 and 3%.

Alliance for Italy (Alleanza per l'Italia, API) : A splitoff from the PD founded in 2009 by Francesco Rutelli, the former party boss of La Margherita, who found the PD to be too left-wing for his tastes. API is basically a bland centrist party, which claims inspirations from liberalism, reformism, federalism, ecologism and other cute things. In practice, it’s Rutelli’s personal vehicle. It’s the third component of the Third Pole, but people often forget to even mention it alongside the other two. It desperately struggles to break 1% in polls.

Italian Socialist Party (Partito Socialista Italiano, PSI) : The Nth desperate attempt to resurrect the historical PSI (which, in the case you forgot, had to disband after being crippled with corruption scandals). It was founded in 2007 by a myriad of smaller neo-socialist outfits. It took just under 1% of the vote in 2008, and polls suggest that its 2013 result will be similar. It might or might not be a part of the left coalition, but nobody cares.

Ecologists and Civic Networks (Ecologisti e Reti Civiche) : The latest avatar of Italian greens, which, since their foundation in late 1980s, have been an uninterrupted failure. Greens in Italy had traditionally polled around 2-3% of the votes. In 2008, they were part of the Rainbow Left list which, as mentioned above, failed miserably. Since then, they have been a non-factor. Like PSI, they hover around 1% in polls, and like PSI they might be inside the left coalition.

Bonino-Pannella list, aka the Radicals : The Radical Party was the political novelty of 1970s Italy : a socially liberal, vehemently secularist and anti-establishment party, attracting a young and modernist electorate. Since its disbandment in 1988, the fight for radical ideals has been spearheaded by two perennial candidates: Marco Pannella and Emma Bonino. There have been myriads of Pannella, Bonino, or Pannella-Bonino lists running in various elections with various electoral fates, from the 1990s to modern day. There will probably be another of those in 2013, which, according to the polls, should win 1 or maybe 2%. P&B seem to be pissed off at the PD in recent times, so they probably will run on their own.

Movement for Autonomies (Movimento per le Autonomie, MpA) : A southern-based regionalist party founded in 2005 by Sicilian UDC bigwig Raffaele Lombardo. MpA is ideologically moderate/centrist and used to be a member of the right-wing coalition. In 2008, it won slightly more than 1% and 8 seats in the House. However, it left Berlusconi’s government in late 2010, voted for the failed no-confidence motion and subsequently joined the Third Pole. It is a non-factor in this election, polling below 1%.

Other parties include the Italian Liberal Party, a lame attempt at reviving the historical PLI and a member of the Third Pole, Grande Sud (“great south”), a southerner party, several regionalist parties like the Südtiroler Volkspartei, a random animal rights party, and many, many more useless outfits nobody gives a rat’s ass about.


The voting system

Italy’s voting system is the epitome of a complete mess. The election law was passed in 2005, under Berlusconi’s second tenure in office. Its sponsor, Lega Nord minister Roberto Calderoli, infamously called it a “porcata” (which approximately means “a sh*tload”), earning the election law its nickname Porcellum (a latinization of the word “porcello”, meaning “piglet”). In a nutshell, the system is based on proportional representation, though a significantly altered (one could say rigged) form of PR. The winning coalition, no matter how many votes it gets, is ensured to win an absolute majority (in the House at least). This was the short version: if you want to understand the system is its full details, read through the rest of this section and prepare for a massive headache.

I’ll first explain the way the House is elected, then will explain more shortly the differences with the Senate’s voting system. Hopefully this will save some time. So, the House has 630 seats, of which 617 are allocated to the bulk of Italy, 12 to Italians living abroad and 1 to Valle d’Aosta. Regarding the main bulk of seats, the voters vote for closed party lists. Among the parties running, certain are running together inside coalition: they are still running separately (meaning you can choose between one list or another) but their votes will be counted together for certain purposes. In order to be counted as such, a coalition must however break 10% of the votes in order to be recognized as such (if it fails to, its parties are counted as if they ran individually). For parties running individually, the electoral threshold is 4% (with an exemption for parties representing “linguistic minorities” if they win more than 20% in one constituency).

The repartition of the 617 seats among recognized coalitions and independent parties meeting the threshold is based on largest remainder PR (if you don’t know what largest remainder means, have a look at this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_remainder_method)). However, if under such repartition no coalition would get at least 340 seats (ie 55% of them), then the coalition with the highest number of votes is automatically awarded 340 seats, and the remaining 277 are apportioned through largest remainder PR to the other coalitions/single parties qualifying. Then, the seats awarded to coalitions are themselves apportioned between the parties which make them up (once again through single remainder PR). In order to access seat allocation, in-coalition parties must have received at least 2% of valid votes (the top vote-getter falling below that threshold is admitted to representation as well, and the “linguistic minority” clause is also applied).

Note that there are 26 multi-member constituencies (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/72/Map_of_Italy_Constituencies_Chamber_of_Deputies_numbered.svg) for the election of these 617 Deputies. However, the repartition of Deputies among constituencies occurs after the apportionment among parties and is done inside each party, meaning that the number of Deputies each constituency elects may vary. Regarding the remaining 13 seats… The single Deputy representing Valle d’Aosta is elected through FPP. As for the 12 seats for Italians abroad, they are elected via open-list PR in four constituencies (Europe with 6 seats, South America 3, North-Central America 2, rest of the world 1).

All right, that’s about it. Now let’s rush through the Senate. There are 315 seats, 309 in Italy proper and 6 for Italians abroad. The voting system is roughly the same as for the House, with a couple differences. First of all, the allocation of seats is not done nationwide, but within each region (which means that a coalition can win the bonus in one region and lose it in another). Electoral thresholds (applied at the regional level) are also higher: 20% for coalitions, 8% for single parties, and 3% for parties within coalitions. There are also a couple of regional peculiarities. In Molise, the two Senators are elected through normal PR. Trentino Alto Adige elects 6 Senators through FPP in single-member constituencies and one more through compensatory PR. Like for the House, Valle d’Aosta has its own Senator, elected through FPP. Finally, the 6 Senators representing Italians abroad are elected in the same constituencies as Deputies (electing respectively 2, 2, 1 and 1) and with the same system.

If you have managed to pull through this without getting a headache or falling asleep, congrats. For normal countries, explaining how the voting system works only takes a couple lines, not four goddamn paragraphs! I’m not saying simplicity is an inherently good thing for voting systems: some degree of sophistication might be a good thing, helping to make the system fairer or more effective. But here, it definitely goes too far. Especially when it comes to the most ridiculous and useless exceptions (the “highest party under 2%” clause in the House, the Trentino peculiarity in the Senate…), it seems like they found every possible excuse to make simple things complicated. Now, you can easily figure out what the average Italian understands of all this sh*t: not much. That’s right, they’ve come with a system that most voters are unable to understand. Then people wonder why the gap between citizens and the political elites is widening…


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 05, 2012, 10:56:09 AM
But anyways, complicatedness is only the lesser of the problems this system generates. They centre of all critics lies in the majority bonus system. In theory, a coalition could win only 10% of votes and still get its guaranteed 340 seats. And, in return, the votes for other coalitions/parties can easily get very distorted (and the lower the score of the winning coalition is, the more others see themselves underrepresented. While, in the two parliamentary elections held with this system until now, the winning coalition has performed decently enough to avoid excessive distortions, in some local elections (which use a similar system) some coalitions could get less than 20% and still have 60% of seats. Yay proportionality… This is made even worse by the difference in thresholds between in-coalition parties and “unaffiliated” parties. It might be legitimate to treat coalition parties more favorably, but this goes way too far. In 2006, a party list made of two irrelevant parties affiliated to Berlusconi’s coalition got 0.7% and won seats. In 2008, the “Rainbow left” list got 3.1% and won no seat.

And then, we have the Senate. The purpose of making it a body representing regions might be honorable, but in practice it pretty much ruins the point of a majority bonus. In a country as regionally polarized as Italy, if the margin is close nationally, it might easily end up as a virtual tie in term of seats (in 2006, it went 159-156 in favor of the left). This wouldn’t be a huge deal, if Italy’s political system weren’t based on “perfect” bicameralism, meaning that the two Houses have exactly the same powers and that the government needs a majority in both in order to function. This has a major impact on the legendary precariousness of Italian governments and their constant inability at enacting policies. Prodi’s downfall in 2008 was precisely caused by his loss of Senatorial majority (the House majority being solid enough).

However, the voting system I just described might very well be history by the time the next election is held. In recent months indeed, PD and PdL have appeared willing to reach a bipartisan agreement on electoral reform.  If such a deal succeeds, that would make it the third electoral reform in less than 20 years. The current election law has been criticized from the outset. Initially, criticisms were concentrated on the left of the political spectrum (even though some leftists certainly laughed hard at the right’s face in 2006), but, after spending years defending it, rightists have also started to acknowledge its flaws. Until now however, nothing concrete has come, as political attention has been focused on different topics. In the talks, debates and polemics regarding the electoral issues, two main options seem to be taking shape.

The first one would be a “German” system: half of MPs elected in single-member constituencies, but the overall repartition of seats being fully proportional (albeit with a 5% threshold). I am highly skeptical about such an option, because the nature of Italy’s political landscape would probably make it unworkable. Even with a 5% threshold, full PR would give no majority to any of the current coalitions (especially with a M5S in high single-digits). The result would either be complete political deadlock, or a German-like “grand coalition” staying in place forever (the continued bickering between PD and PdL while they both support Monti shows us this isn’t a great idea). Unsurprisingly, this solution is popular with Casini&co, and to a lesser extent in the PdL (as it would allow them to keep some power even if they poll awfully).

The PD, instead, seems to be putting forward a second option: a “French” system, based on two-round FPP in single-member constituencies. This system is appreciated because it could easily give an absolute majority to the party most likely to gather 50% of the voters in a runoff (by any means, the PD). For PDers, getting rid of their coalition partners is a long-standing wet dream. Smaller parties (IdV and SEL, but also UDC and Lega), on the other hand, obviously aren’t fond of the idea. It is hard to know what will come out of all this (maybe nothing will come at all…), but the debate over electoral reform is certainly one of the things to keep track of ahead of 2013. If a new election law is passed, I’ll make sure to explain its functioning in detail as I did for the current one.


Things to follow

Throughout the electoral campaign, here is what one should keep an eye on in order to have an idea what’s going on. I won’t be commenting about every event, so you guys might want to be self-sufficient. ;)

First off, obviously, the polls. I will do my best to post polls regularly, and in a couple weeks I will try to put up a weekly polling tracker inspired by Fab’s in the French election thread. If you want to look at polls by yourself, here is the Italian polling archive (http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/asp/visualizza_sondaggi.asp?ordine=data) where you will find all election polls ordered by date of publication. Before I come up with a permanent tracker, here’s an overview of the parties’ standings as measured in the past 7 days. Just to give you an idea, seven polls were published this week! Italy kicks ass when compared to France. ;) However, I don’t know which polling firms are reliable and which aren’t, so some averaging might be useful. The first number is the average of the 7 polls (some smaller parties weren’t always polled, so in this case I averaged only the polls where they appeared). In parentheses, you have the maximal and minimal result, in order to give an idea of the uncertainty.

PD : 25.5 (24-27.5)
PdL : 17.5 (16-18.7)
M5S : 17.1 (14.8-19.8)
UDC : 6.9 (5.6-8)
IdV : 6.6 (4.4-8.4)
SEL : 6.3 (5.6-7.2)
Lega : 5.3 (4.5-6.8)
FLI : 2.8 (1.6-4)
FdS : 2.7 (2.4-3)
Destra : 2.6 (1.4-4.4) (polled 6 times)
Radicals : 1.6 (0.6-2.8) (polled 5 times)
Greens : 1.2 (0.8-1.6) (polled 4 times)
PSI : 1 (0.8-1.2) (polled 4 times)
MpA : 0.5 (0.1-0.6) (polled 5 times)
API : 0.4 (0.1-0.7) (polled 5 times)

Grouping by coalition:

Left : 42.6 (40.9-44.4)
Right : 25.3 (22-29.8)
Third Pole : 10.4 (9.2-11.2)
No coalition : 21.7 (20.1-24)

As you can see, Italian polls love to give us decimal number, which, despite being useless, are more fun than entire numbers. Overall, we can see that some parties are pretty well estimated (PD, PdL, FdS) while others involve a huge amount of uncertainty (chiefly M5S, but also IdV or Lega). Stay tuned to see the evolution of these numbers in the following weeks ! :)

Apart from the polls, a couple other trends you should keep track of:
- The economic situation, which in times of crisis can significantly affect the mood of the electorate. If things get better, expect a decrease in protest votes (M5S in particular), a higher turnout and an advantage to moderate parties (PD, PdL, UDC). If things get worse, expect the contrary. An important indicator of Italy’s situation is the spread of Italy’s 10-year government securities, which you can follow here (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/.IT10:IND).
- The bills debated in Parliament, and whether they pass or fail. Special attention, of course, to economy-related bills (for the above reasons). But see also bills related to corruption or justice issues, the debates on electoral reform or the attempts to cut the privileges of elected officials. They can influence the electorate in many ways, and if a bill introduced by the government were to fail, snap elections would likely be called.
- What the media say: the hot topics, the main debates of the time, the issues brought to the spotlight… There’s not need to remind how much these things matter. You can easily find the websites of most Italian media: Google “Repubblica”, “Corriere” or “Giornale” for print media, “Rai”, “Mediaset” or “La7” for televisions. By following medias you will also get to know if a politician said or did something noteworthy (that doesn’t happen often, though ;)).


All right, this is it. For those who managed to read through it, I hope you enjoyed my overview of these elections. When I started writing this, I never expected to write so much, but at least now I’m pretty sure I haven’t neglected any important issue. There is only one aspect of this presentation I haven’t included: political geography. Italy is a pretty fascinating place in this regard, but unfortunately I don’t know enough on the topic to write anything worthwhile. I hope you are not too disappointed by this absence. Anyways, thanks to those who took the time to read this, and looking forward to an exciting campaign! :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on June 05, 2012, 11:07:43 AM
5 Stelle polls 15-20% now ?

WTF ?

(Didn't follow Italy for quite a while now, so what happened briefly ?)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 05, 2012, 11:17:10 AM
His most common catchphrase is “they are all dead” referring to the political class, parties and traditional institutions.

I thought Grillo's catchphrase was "vaffanculo!"

Oh yes, this too. :P

Thx.


5 Stelle polls 15-20% now ?

WTF ?

(Didn't follow Italy for quite a while now, so what happened briefly ?)

I have tried to explain the MRS surge to the best of my knowledge in the apposite section. In summary, the massive breakthrough happened during the May mayoral elections, with M5S winning Parma along with 3 smaller cities. The hypotheses I'd put up to explain the surge are 1) the crisis and discontent at austerity policies 2) frustration at the mediocrity and corruptness of Italian politicians 3) the collapse of the right parties which opened an opportunity. If you want more details, read the section. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: lilTommy on June 05, 2012, 11:46:29 AM
Well done Antonio! i think this is a fantastic start to begin an analysis of Italy...

I know I would LOVE a political Geographic write-up... i'm sure someone here could help with that if they had the knowledge... hint hint, we'd all love it i'm sure. I'm not that familiar either and anyone can do a wiki-based write up if we were desperate.

The italian electoral system is just a mess; isn't this the third system they put in place in the last 10-20 years?

... ok i will admit it too, i love Vendola (politically and in italy i might be tempted to literally) :P



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 05, 2012, 11:59:44 AM
The vote better take place in 2013 (and I'm assuming it will) since I won't have much to follow that year on this side of the Atlantic. Should be highly entertaining, as usual.

And they're going with a new system? Well, at least it will make more sense than what it is now.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Velasco on June 05, 2012, 12:42:40 PM
This is great and it will be very entertaining.

A suggestion about Beppe Grillo`s "party": Maybe the emphasis in the "V" is because it means "five" in Latin numbers. The connectivity issue reminds me a Telecom Ad.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Hash on June 05, 2012, 03:55:14 PM
I need to read it in its entirety, but this is way better than my France 2012 megathread. Excellent work, my friend :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 05, 2012, 04:10:08 PM
Thank you all. It's great to see you like it. :)


I know I would LOVE a political Geographic write-up... i'm sure someone here could help with that if they had the knowledge... hint hint, we'd all love it i'm sure. I'm not that familiar either and anyone can do a wiki-based write up if we were desperate.

I think I know who you're talking about. ;) And yes, I'd love to see it too. That said, we should probably wait until French legislative elections are over.


Quote
The italian electoral system is just a mess; isn't this the third system they put in place in the last 10-20 years?

Yes, indeed. Italy used to have full, straight and threshold-less PR throughout the First Republic. In 1993, a referendum repealed the electoral law (PR was associated with partitocracy and political fragmentation, and there were widespread calls for a switch to FPP). The electoral law subsequently passed was nicknamed "Mattarellum" ("mattarello" means rolling pin) and was even more of a mess than the current one. It was a kind of lame form of MPP by which 75% of MPs were elected through FPP in single-member constituencies and the remaining 25% were elected on a compensatory party-list PR, through a complicated system of "list linking". This system lasted until 2005, when the current electoral law was passed. What will happen from now to next April, nobody knows.


Quote
The vote better take place in 2013 (and I'm assuming it will) since I won't have much to follow that year on this side of the Atlantic. Should be highly entertaining, as usual.

Yeah, I don't see PdL being suicidal enough to topple Monti, so the legislature will last until the regular end of its term.


Quote
And they're going with a new system? Well, at least it will make more sense than what it is now.

Well, this remain to be seen.


A suggestion about Beppe Grillo`s "party": Maybe the emphasis in the "V" is because it means "five" in Latin numbers. The connectivity issue reminds me a Telecom Ad.

Wow, I didn't think about that. You might be right, yeah.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 05, 2012, 05:25:07 PM
Thanks for making this, Antonio.  Well done.  I know it seems unlikely, but at this point, what are the chances (approximately) of an internal PD primary?  And would it be open to just PD people, or other members of the center-left coalition as well, the way regional and municipal ones have been?  And who would be some potential alternatives to Bersani, if they were to take place? (besides Renzi...really don't like that guy.) I'm guessing they'd be pretty divisive and potentially lead to the PD splitting up....:/




*Still got my fingers crossed for Vendola, hoping he gets his momentum back somehow*


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 05, 2012, 07:55:14 PM
Oh, Vendola isn't doing well anymore? Part of me would love to have him as the Left's standard bearer and the other part of me worries that he'd end up being Prime Minister.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 05, 2012, 10:10:40 PM
The thing that struck me about this thread was how good your English is (that is to say, very good).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on June 06, 2012, 07:26:33 AM
The problem with predictions is that we still don't know what will happen with coalitions.
Whether new people (Montezemolo?) will enter the race and the alliances that will be formed.
Moreover 40-50% of people abstain in polls but more than half of them are likely to vote.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 06, 2012, 10:24:24 AM
Oh, Vendola isn't doing well anymore? Part of me would love to have him as the Left's standard bearer and the other part of me worries that he'd end up being Prime Minister.
I'd love to see him as the left's standard bearer, and I'd love to see him become PM, because he no longer identifies as a communist, and he has governed the Puglia region pretty pragmatically (cutting red tape for small businesses for example), plus he's got more charisma than a million Bersanis combined.  Btw, to which faction of the PD does Catiuscia Marini belong, out of curiosity?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 06, 2012, 11:39:56 AM
Formigoni just survived a no confidence vote. Is he still trying to position himself to lead the PdL or am I way behind? :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 06, 2012, 03:37:30 PM
Thanks for making this, Antonio.  Well done.  I know it seems unlikely, but at this point, what are the chances (approximately) of an internal PD primary?  And would it be open to just PD people, or other members of the center-left coalition as well, the way regional and municipal ones have been?  And who would be some potential alternatives to Bersani, if they were to take place? (besides Renzi...really don't like that guy.) I'm guessing they'd be pretty divisive and potentially lead to the PD splitting up....:/

To be honest, I have no clue. If you ask me about probabilities, I'd say it's 60% no primary, 30% PD primary, 10% left-wing primary. The last thing the PD apparatus wants is having to back a non-PD candidate for PM, no matter if it would be a far more charismatic candidate. This is just my wild guess, nothing more. As for who would win primaries, I really have no idea. It's not like I know the main PD members very well anyways, and anything could happen during the campaing. If you asked me, I'd bet on an outsider though. The people's mood these times is very much anti-establishment, even inside established parties like PD.


Quote
Oh, Vendola isn't doing well anymore? Part of me would love to have him as the Left's standard bearer and the other part of me worries that he'd end up being Prime Minister.

Were Vendola the left's candidate, I'd call the election for the left right now. ;)


Quote
The thing that struck me about this thread was how good your English is (that is to say, very good).

Thank you, this is very important to me. I ought to thank this forum if I'm able to write this way.


Quote
The problem with predictions is that we still don't know what will happen with coalitions.
Whether new people (Montezemolo?) will enter the race and the alliances that will be formed.
Moreover 40-50% of people abstain in polls but more than half of them are likely to vote.

Montezemolo ? Really ? Even in the remote eventuality that he decides to run, don't count on him to play a major role. Anyways, mine isn't a prediction but simply a guide to follow the upcoming campaign knowing what is the situation at this point.


Quote
Formigoni just survived a no confidence vote. Is he still trying to position himself to lead the PdL or am I way behind? :P

Yeah, right. Another obviously-corrupt politician is exactly what the PdL needs to stop the bleeding. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Dereich on June 06, 2012, 10:55:39 PM
So what is the current least corrupt party that has its act together? And by that I mean is capable of governing and is not tearing itself apart in destructive internal power struggles. (And by party I mean legitimate party, so no 5 Stelle)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: batmacumba on June 07, 2012, 12:27:30 AM
So what is the current least corrupt party that has its act together? And by that I mean is capable of governing and is not tearing itself apart in destructive internal power struggles. (And by party I mean legitimate party, so no 5 Stelle)

As in Brazil, unfortunally, no party can govern without giving It's rings to the corrupt system. But IdV's foundation was in order to bring 'Clean Hands' inside politics, and SEL inherits the PCI tradition of being less corrupt than the others. I guess the IdV would clash with the system and be unable to do anything, while SEL would SEL out. Pityfull, as I think Vendola, agree You or not with his political positions, is a fresh breeze on Italian politics.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 07, 2012, 04:04:33 AM
If I had to rank the parties' corruptness based on the number and gravity of scandals involving their members, PdL naturally stands out as the most corrupt, followed by Lega. Then come the traditionally established parties (PD, UDC, API, etc.) which are roughly tied. Sadly, even IdV is not exacly spotless (the most famous corrupt turncoat which allowed Berlusconi to survive on december 2010 came from its ranks), though there's little doubt Di Pietro himself is honest. Even Vendola has been recently embroiled in some scandal regarding his region, though I don't know how serious the allegations are. M5S is obviously not corrupt, since until recently they had no officeholder.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on June 07, 2012, 04:17:26 AM
Formigoni just survived a no confidence vote. Is he still trying to position himself to lead the PdL or am I way behind? :P

No, no more, just trying to ramain in office in Lombardy till 2015


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: batmacumba on June 07, 2012, 06:50:06 AM
If I had to rank the parties' corruptness based on the number and gravity of scandals involving their members, PdL naturally stands out as the most corrupt, followed by Lega. Then come the traditionally established parties (PD, UDC, API, etc.) which are roughly tied. Sadly, even IdV is not exacly spotless (the most famous corrupt turncoat which allowed Berlusconi to survive on december 2010 came from its ranks), though there's little doubt Di Pietro himself is honest. Even Vendola has been recently embroiled in some scandal regarding his region, though I don't know how serious the allegations are. M5S is obviously not corrupt, since until recently they had no officeholder.

For the little I've aknowledge, It seemed to be some type of file shredding. Or the guy was doing bad things and Vendola got rid of him without letting the douche come out of the toilet, or Vendola was involved himself, which I find less probable, but proves my point, anyway.
About IdV... I really wasn't aware of that guy (I usually care more about the south than national politics, for silly sentimental reasons) but then... Does that means even then would get onto the Italian political culture antics?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 07, 2012, 11:19:01 AM
M5S is obviously not corrupt, since until recently they had no officeholder.
It would be hilarious if one or a bunch of M5S city council members ended up in a really huge corruption scandal though. 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 07, 2012, 11:33:53 AM
If I had to rank the parties' corruptness based on the number and gravity of scandals involving their members, PdL naturally stands out as the most corrupt, followed by Lega. Then come the traditionally established parties (PD, UDC, API, etc.) which are roughly tied. Sadly, even IdV is not exacly spotless (the most famous corrupt turncoat which allowed Berlusconi to survive on december 2010 came from its ranks), though there's little doubt Di Pietro himself is honest. Even Vendola has been recently embroiled in some scandal regarding his region, though I don't know how serious the allegations are. M5S is obviously not corrupt, since until recently they had no officeholder.

For the little I've aknowledge, It seemed to be some type of file shredding. Or the guy was doing bad things and Vendola got rid of him without letting the douche come out of the toilet, or Vendola was involved himself, which I find less probable, but proves my point, anyway.
About IdV... I really wasn't aware of that guy (I usually care more about the south than national politics, for silly sentimental reasons) but then... Does that means even then would get onto the Italian political culture antics?

IMO, the only reason is poor candidate selection from Di Pietro and IdV's structure. Sort of like what happened with the NDP caucus in Canada last year: they had to fill the required number of candidacies, and since the party doesn't have many worthy political figures apart from Di Pietro and Orlando, they filled the list which worthless nobodies who were totally unfit for the job. With IdV winning a higher share of the votes than expected, several of these worthless nobodies got elected. There actually have been several cases of former IdV turncoats, but this guy, Domenico Scilipoti, is really the caricature of an unprincipled, incompetent and greedy politician. Hopefully Di Pietro will be more careful this time...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 07, 2012, 11:40:42 AM
Oh, and a new poll:
PD-25.0%
M5S-20.0%
PdL-17.2%
IdV-7.8%
UdC-6.8%
SEL-6.3%
Lega-4.8%
FdS-2.7%
FLI-2.5%
Destra-1.3%
Holy.  Sh*t.  Holy.  Sh*t.  I seriously hope the M5S surpasses the PD (briefly) in the polls in order to terrify them into holding center-left primaries so Vendola can win and steal back Grillo's momentum.  But God, Grillo as the first (elected) PM after Berlusconi would be SAD.  


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 07, 2012, 11:54:11 AM
ROFLMAO ! ;D I promised you an exciting campaign, didn't I ? ;) This is getting epically hilarious...

But don't go too fast, Peter. M5S winning more votes than PD wouldn't mean that Grillo becomes PM, far from that. Remember the voting system : what matters are coalitions. If the system remains the same and if the left coalition is what it is expected to be, today's poll still gives it 41.8% (a bit more if you add PSI and the Greens), far above M5S's lone standing. Of course, everything can happen in terms of coalitions, but the possibility of M5S coalizing with another party is still pretty remote.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 07, 2012, 12:14:34 PM
This isn't really any more surreal than the Forza Italia breakthrough in 1994.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Beet on June 07, 2012, 12:22:41 PM
What's so bad about the Five Star Movement?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: lilTommy on June 07, 2012, 12:31:23 PM
Oh, and a new poll:
PD-25.0%
M5S-20.0%
PdL-17.2%
IdV-7.8%
UdC-6.8%
SEL-6.3%
Lega-4.8%
FdS-2.7%
FLI-2.5%
Destra-1.3%
Holy.  Sh*t.  Holy.  Sh*t.  I seriously hope the M5S surpasses the PD (briefly) in the polls in order to terrify them into holding center-left primaries so Vendola can win and steal back Grillo's momentum.  But God, Grillo as the first (elected) PM after Berlusconi would be SAD.  

I keep hoping Lega Nord drops below that 4%... BUT are they part of the PdL led coalition? or were they i should say. No clue about who is running with who eh? Would the "left of the left" run under a list like last time (i believe Left-The rainbow was a coaltion no?) that way with those numbers FdS with SEL would get in.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 07, 2012, 01:58:13 PM
What's so bad about the Five Star Movement?

It's literally a joke party.

This really is going to be fun (but possibly very embarrassing) to watch.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 07, 2012, 03:14:06 PM
Presumably the municipalities it won will attempt to twin-town with Reykjavík?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RodPresident on June 07, 2012, 04:15:20 PM
Are there any chances to end with majority prize in Italy until 2013?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Gary J on June 07, 2012, 07:24:22 PM
You did not think the German electoral system would work in Italy. I know comparatively little about Italy, but historically the German party system was pretty fragmented both in the Empire and the Weimar Republic.

The classic West German two and a half party system (counting the CDU and CSU as effectively one party at the federal level), took several elections to come about. As I understand the German case, the effect of the five percent threshold gradually eliminated smaller parties from the Bundestag. Once a party dropped out from representation it usually became a completely irrelevant minor party. Of course in more recent times Germany has moved into a situation where more parties are represented. The new parties do not seem to be disappearing, so German politics are becoming less stable.

Perhaps the effect of a German style electoral system would be, over the course of several elections, to reduce the number of parties in the legislature and make stable governmental  coalitions easier to form.






Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 07, 2012, 07:47:25 PM
ROFLMAO ! ;D I promised you an exciting campaign, didn't I ? ;) This is getting epically hilarious...

But don't go too fast, Peter. M5S winning more votes than PD wouldn't mean that Grillo becomes PM, far from that. Remember the voting system : what matters are coalitions. If the system remains the same and if the left coalition is what it is expected to be, today's poll still gives it 41.8% (a bit more if you add PSI and the Greens), far above M5S's lone standing. Of course, everything can happen in terms of coalitions, but the possibility of M5S coalizing with another party is still pretty remote.
Ah true.  But would it at least scare the PD sh**tless enough that they might be more likely to hold PD (or hopefully even center-left) primaries.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RodPresident on June 08, 2012, 01:20:52 AM
Another point that Italy needs is party fidelity. A country where politicians can leave parties without losing mandate is going to instability. This make coalitions to be weak structures, then majority prize is worthless. Ending majority prize with party fidelity would be able to create a legitimate and stable government.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on June 08, 2012, 02:22:53 AM
Oh, Vendola isn't doing well anymore? Part of me would love to have him as the Left's standard bearer and the other part of me worries that he'd end up being Prime Minister.
I'd love to see him as the left's standard bearer, and I'd love to see him become PM, because he no longer identifies as a communist, and he has governed the Puglia region pretty pragmatically (cutting red tape for small businesses for example), plus he's got more charisma than a million Bersanis combined.  Btw, to which faction of the PD does Catiuscia Marini belong, out of curiosity?
The Umbria governor is not really a prominent national figure; I guess that she has "normal" PD views.
My friends from Umbria say that she's doing allright anyway.



Great topic Antonio ;)
Just a couple of remarks : Bersani was not the Finance Minister,but rather the Economic Development Minister. Small wording difference,but quite a big change,at least here.
Also,last year the PD strongly supported all 4 of the referendums. The IdV were tbe ones which organized the petition and were more vocal about it, but afterwards PD were not silent at all.

On the whole PD primary discussion: at this point I think that there will be primaries before the elections,but at the same time it's not clear whether they'll be coalition primaries (and God knows who'll be in the coalition by then) or just PD primaries.
My feeling is that Bersani would win anyway.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on June 08, 2012, 02:28:06 AM
What's so bad about the Five Star Movement?

Populism at its best.
Actually,at its worst.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 08, 2012, 02:44:19 AM
Great topic Antonio ;)
Just a couple of remarks : Bersani was not the Finance Minister,but rather the Economic Development Minister. Small wording difference,but quite a big change,at least here.
Also,last year the PD strongly supported all 4 of the referendums. The IdV were tbe ones which organized the petition and were more vocal about it, but afterwards PD were not silent at all.

On the whole PD primary discussion: at this point I think that there will be primaries before the elections,but at the same time it's not clear whether they'll be coalition primaries (and God knows who'll be in the coalition by then) or just PD primaries.
My feeling is that Bersani would win anyway.

Ah, sorry for the mistakes. As I follow Italian politics from the outside, I might not always get everything correctly. Any correction is welcome. ;)


Regarding the German system, Gary might be right about it successfully marginalizing the smaller parties. There are so many parties under the 5% threshold that it would certainly produce some cleansing. That said, would it be enough to produce a working majority ? You would have PD, PdL, M5S, UDC, IdV, SEL and possibly Lega in, and with the M5S polling in high 10s a hung parliament wouldn't be hard to get. If a left majority comes out of this, it will be a razor-thin one (and you know what happens to razor-thing majorities in Italy...). Maybe it could work in the long run, but the political and economic context is in no way comparable to postwar Germany. There, you had the economic boom of reconstruction, and two strong parties able to attract large chunks of the electorate. Here in Italy, both traditional governing parties are in dire straits, and the momentum seems to be on the side of populist forces.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: bore on June 08, 2012, 12:12:17 PM
Firstly I'll echo everyone else and say this is great work. As well though can I ask a question? My grandfather is from a small town in Avellino called Montefalcione and I was wondering how it votes, is this sort of information available?. Thanks in advance.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 08, 2012, 12:45:23 PM
Firstly I'll echo everyone else and say this is great work. As well though can I ask a question? My grandfather is from a small town in Avellino called Montefalcione and I was wondering how it votes, is this sort of information available?. Thanks in advance.

The Interior Ministry has a fantastic website which provides the results for every election of any kind since 1946. By using the menu on the right, you will find the results broken down by Region, Province and Municipality : http://elezionistorico.interno.it/index.php

For example, these (http://elezionistorico.interno.it/index.php?tpel=C&dtel=13/04/2008&tpa=I&tpe=C&lev0=0&levsut0=0&lev1=20&levsut1=1&lev2=8&levsut2=2&lev3=530&levsut3=3&ne1=20&ne2=8&ne3=80530&es0=S&es1=S&es2=S&es3=N&ms=S) were the results in your grandfather's town for the 2008 House elections. :)

Looks like it's quite left-wing. FFs. ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: bore on June 08, 2012, 12:57:33 PM
Firstly I'll echo everyone else and say this is great work. As well though can I ask a question? My grandfather is from a small town in Avellino called Montefalcione and I was wondering how it votes, is this sort of information available?. Thanks in advance.

The Interior Ministry has a fantastic website which provides the results for every election of any kind since 1946. By using the menu on the right, you will find the results broken down by Region, Province and Municipality : http://elezionistorico.interno.it/index.php

For example, these (http://elezionistorico.interno.it/index.php?tpel=C&dtel=13/04/2008&tpa=I&tpe=C&lev0=0&levsut0=0&lev1=20&levsut1=1&lev2=8&levsut2=2&lev3=530&levsut3=3&ne1=20&ne2=8&ne3=80530&es0=S&es1=S&es2=S&es3=N&ms=S) were the results in your grandfather's town for the 2008 House elections. :)

Looks like it's quite left-wing. FFs. ;)

Thanks a lot, that website is great. I'm just as pleased to see my relatives are very sensible ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 08, 2012, 01:19:04 PM
That's an awesome website, indeed. Wish all countries had such websites, the French one is an utter joke. :(

Here are my own roots. It's quite spread all over the place. ;)

Paternal grandfather (http://elezionistorico.interno.it/index.php?tpel=C&dtel=13/04/2008&tpa=I&tpe=C&lev0=0&levsut0=0&lev1=23&levsut1=1&lev2=67&levsut2=2&lev3=560&levsut3=3&ne1=23&ne2=67&ne3=670560&es0=S&es1=S&es2=S&es3=N&ms=S) Right+6

Paternal grandmother (http://elezionistorico.interno.it/index.php?tpel=C&dtel=13/04/2008&tpa=I&tpe=C&lev0=0&levsut0=0&lev1=23&levsut1=1&lev2=67&levsut2=2&lev3=500&levsut3=3&ne1=23&ne2=67&ne3=670500&es0=S&es1=S&es2=S&es3=N&ms=S) Right+21

Maternal grandfather (http://elezionistorico.interno.it/index.php?tpel=C&dtel=13/04/2008&tpa=I&tpe=C&lev0=0&levsut0=0&lev1=8&levsut1=1&lev2=10&levsut2=2&lev3=260&levsut3=3&ne1=8&ne2=10&ne3=100260&es0=S&es1=S&es2=S&es3=N&ms=S) Left+11

Maternal grandmother (http://elezionistorico.interno.it/index.php?tpel=C&dtel=13/04/2008&tpa=H&tpe=C&lev0=27&levsut0=1&lev1=1&levsut1=2&lev2=220&levsut2=4&ne1=2701&ne2=10040220&es0=S&es1=S&es2=N&ms=S) Valle d'Aostan politics :P

Place I lived in (http://elezionistorico.interno.it/index.php?tpel=C&dtel=13/04/2008&tpa=I&tpe=C&lev0=0&levsut0=0&lev1=1&levsut1=1&lev2=81&levsut2=2&lev3=1180&levsut3=3&ne1=1&ne2=81&ne3=811180&es0=S&es1=S&es2=S&es3=N&ms=S) Left+19


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 08, 2012, 01:31:39 PM
Eh... at least you get results at a local level released...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on June 08, 2012, 02:54:47 PM
I love that website too :D
Quite dispersed roots btw!
The Calabria vote is very influenced by...local factors (ndrangheta) anyway.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 08, 2012, 03:18:28 PM
I love that website too :D
Quite dispersed roots btw!
The Calabria vote is very influenced by...local factors (ndrangheta) anyway.

It's not like I had not much knowing what Calabria is like. :P Did you see the movie Qualunquemente BTW ? A truly excellent (and epically hilarious) satire, really.

Yeah, my family comes from every corner of Italy. Being asked where I come from is my worst nightmare, because it requires half an hour to explain. ;D Especially since my maternal grandparents actually came to live in France decades ago, then my mother came back in Italy to study at Torino's Politecnico. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: batmacumba on June 08, 2012, 03:24:11 PM
I love that website too :D
Quite dispersed roots btw!
The Calabria vote is very influenced by...local factors (ndrangheta) anyway.

It's not like I had not much knowing what Calabria is like. :P Did you see the movie Qualunquemente BTW ? A truly excellent (and epically hilarious) satire, really.

Yeah, my family comes from every corner of Italy. Being asked where I come from is my worst nightmare, because it requires half an hour to explain. ;D Especially since my maternal grandparents actually came to live in France decades ago, then my mother came back in Italy to study at Torino's Politecnico. :P

I'm not sure if the Italian part of my familie came from Catanzaro or Reggio, but, with 'those influences' or not, both are as conservative as I would expect.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 08, 2012, 03:33:28 PM
I love that website too :D
Quite dispersed roots btw!
The Calabria vote is very influenced by...local factors (ndrangheta) anyway.

It's not like I had not much knowing what Calabria is like. :P Did you see the movie Qualunquemente BTW ? A truly excellent (and epically hilarious) satire, really.

Yeah, my family comes from every corner of Italy. Being asked where I come from is my worst nightmare, because it requires half an hour to explain. ;D Especially since my maternal grandparents actually came to live in France decades ago, then my mother came back in Italy to study at Torino's Politecnico. :P

I'm not sure if the Italian part of my familie came from Catanzaro or Reggio, but, with 'those influences' or not, both are as conservative as I would expect.

TBF, there was a great deal of ideological diveristy in Calabria as in the rest of the South, with a sizable share of communists, demochristians, monarchists, MSI guys, and many other parties. If you have a look at this 1946 election map (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/it/e/e0/Italia_1946.PNG) (probably the most interesting election in terms of patterns) you'll notice how colorful it was down there. ;)

Personally, from what I gather my grandfather was a fascist (of those who volunteered to serve in the ranks of the Social Republic after the armistice), my grandmother I'm not sure but I think a more traditional kind of conservative, and yet my father ended up being a communist in his youth. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on June 08, 2012, 06:09:03 PM
I love that website too :D
Quite dispersed roots btw!
The Calabria vote is very influenced by...local factors (ndrangheta) anyway.

It's not like I had not much knowing what Calabria is like. :P Did you see the movie Qualunquemente BTW ? A truly excellent (and epically hilarious) satire, really.

Yeah, my family comes from every corner of Italy. Being asked where I come from is my worst nightmare, because it requires half an hour to explain. ;D Especially since my maternal grandparents actually came to live in France decades ago, then my mother came back in Italy to study at Torino's Politecnico. :P
Yeah I saw it ;)

Anyway what I meant is that Calabria is just as conservative as the rest of the south. Very religious and lower level of education, but often those big margins favoring the right are due to those "external factors" ;)

One could just look at how fell normally insignificant parties do in local and national elections in the South,thanks to these phenomena.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: batmacumba on June 08, 2012, 06:16:06 PM
Actually, Crotone and western Cosenza were a PCI stroghold and still vote for the left. The fun part is that this is also the voting pattern of Italian families in BH.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 08, 2012, 10:02:55 PM
I remember playing around on the Interior website a few years ago. Just as I remembered: my Mom's side in Sicily was just barely left leaning (one of the few areas, right?) in 2008 and my Dad's side in Campania was right leaning. 2006 was a landslide win for the left in my paternal side's town, with Prodi's coalition getting a whopping 65% yet Prodi and Co. only won 54%-46% in my maternal side's town.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 11, 2012, 01:04:19 PM
Two other polls show M5S above PdL. This is real, guys.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 12, 2012, 03:59:56 AM
To be honest, I have no clue. If you ask me about probabilities, I'd say it's 60% no primary, 30% PD primary, 10% left-wing primary. The last thing the PD apparatus wants is having to back a non-PD candidate for PM, no matter if it would be a far more charismatic candidate. This is just my wild guess, nothing more. As for who would win primaries, I really have no idea. It's not like I know the main PD members very well anyways, and anything could happen during the campaing. If you asked me, I'd bet on an outsider though. The people's mood these times is very much anti-establishment, even inside established parties like PD.

Remind me never to do probabilized forecasts again. Bersani announced a couple days ago that the PD will be holding "coalition primaries". Good news for the left, I'd say.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 13, 2012, 08:19:01 PM
To be honest, I have no clue. If you ask me about probabilities, I'd say it's 60% no primary, 30% PD primary, 10% left-wing primary. The last thing the PD apparatus wants is having to back a non-PD candidate for PM, no matter if it would be a far more charismatic candidate. This is just my wild guess, nothing more. As for who would win primaries, I really have no idea. It's not like I know the main PD members very well anyways, and anything could happen during the campaing. If you asked me, I'd bet on an outsider though. The people's mood these times is very much anti-establishment, even inside established parties like PD.

Remind me never to do probabilized forecasts again. Bersani announced a couple days ago that the PD will be holding "coalition primaries". Good news for the left, I'd say.
THANK GOD!  Is Vendola running, or is he likely to?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 14, 2012, 03:50:14 AM
To be honest, I have no clue. If you ask me about probabilities, I'd say it's 60% no primary, 30% PD primary, 10% left-wing primary. The last thing the PD apparatus wants is having to back a non-PD candidate for PM, no matter if it would be a far more charismatic candidate. This is just my wild guess, nothing more. As for who would win primaries, I really have no idea. It's not like I know the main PD members very well anyways, and anything could happen during the campaing. If you asked me, I'd bet on an outsider though. The people's mood these times is very much anti-establishment, even inside established parties like PD.

Remind me never to do probabilized forecasts again. Bersani announced a couple days ago that the PD will be holding "coalition primaries". Good news for the left, I'd say.
THANK GOD!  Is Vendola running, or is he likely to?

He will probably run, but I highly doubt he'll win. His momentum is definitely gone and he's now part of the classical political landscape. It's a shame, because he has a real shot one year ago, but he's been unable to find a strong message since then.

I'll still be voting for him if it turns out I can vote.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 14, 2012, 12:42:57 PM
To be honest, I have no clue. If you ask me about probabilities, I'd say it's 60% no primary, 30% PD primary, 10% left-wing primary. The last thing the PD apparatus wants is having to back a non-PD candidate for PM, no matter if it would be a far more charismatic candidate. This is just my wild guess, nothing more. As for who would win primaries, I really have no idea. It's not like I know the main PD members very well anyways, and anything could happen during the campaing. If you asked me, I'd bet on an outsider though. The people's mood these times is very much anti-establishment, even inside established parties like PD.

Remind me never to do probabilized forecasts again. Bersani announced a couple days ago that the PD will be holding "coalition primaries". Good news for the left, I'd say.
THANK GOD!  Is Vendola running, or is he likely to?

He will probably run, but I highly doubt he'll win. His momentum is definitely gone and he's now part of the classical political landscape. It's a shame, because he has a real shot one year ago, but he's been unable to find a strong message since then.

I'll still be voting for him if it turns out I can vote.
Damn.  Why has so much of his momentum gone?  Is it because of that health care scandal?  All I can say is that no offense is meant, but I really hope this prediction turns out like your last one :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 14, 2012, 12:52:42 PM
To be honest, I have no clue. If you ask me about probabilities, I'd say it's 60% no primary, 30% PD primary, 10% left-wing primary. The last thing the PD apparatus wants is having to back a non-PD candidate for PM, no matter if it would be a far more charismatic candidate. This is just my wild guess, nothing more. As for who would win primaries, I really have no idea. It's not like I know the main PD members very well anyways, and anything could happen during the campaing. If you asked me, I'd bet on an outsider though. The people's mood these times is very much anti-establishment, even inside established parties like PD.

Remind me never to do probabilized forecasts again. Bersani announced a couple days ago that the PD will be holding "coalition primaries". Good news for the left, I'd say.
THANK GOD!  Is Vendola running, or is he likely to?

He will probably run, but I highly doubt he'll win. His momentum is definitely gone and he's now part of the classical political landscape. It's a shame, because he has a real shot one year ago, but he's been unable to find a strong message since then.

I'll still be voting for him if it turns out I can vote.
Damn.  Why has so much of his momentum gone?  Is it because of that health care scandal?  All I can say is that no offense is meant, but I really hope this prediction turns out like your last one :P

I don't really know why. He just doesn't make the headlines anymore. Even the health care scandal didn't receive much coverage AFAIK.

No offense taken, I wish the same. ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 15, 2012, 11:19:15 AM
So Vendola is now seen as a typical politician? Great. Maybe I'll root for him to win. It would be great to see him lose a General. :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on June 16, 2012, 05:13:30 AM
No one is really talking about Vendola anymore.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: technical support on June 24, 2012, 09:08:12 PM
i know


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 30, 2012, 10:15:51 PM
Any news?  Seems awfully quite here. 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 01, 2012, 03:33:27 AM
In short, Italy rejoices because they won twice against Germany last thursday : Super Mario Balotelli scored two goals against them, Super Mario Monti (with the support of Rajoy and Hollande) managed to impose Merkel his conditions on several key issues during the summit. Monti's position (hence the government's stability) is strengthened and nobody talks anymore about snap elections.

The PdL keeps being a joke and is now claiming that Monti succeeded because he followed Berlusconi's advice (yeah, not kidding). Bersani keeps being useless and has clashed with Vendola and Di Pietro recently (I'm not sure I've understood, but from what I gather there are talks of an alliance with the Third Pole).

In other news, it turns out the retirement pension reform was messed up badly, having resulted in tenths of thousands formerly early-retired people now being left without any resources. The government barely seems to care.

That's all I can think about right now.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 01, 2012, 06:44:39 PM
...and Maroni is now officially leading Lega Nord.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on July 04, 2012, 01:11:32 PM
In other news, it turns out the retirement pension reform was messed up badly, having resulted in tenths of thousands formerly early-retired people now being left without any resources. The government barely seems to care.

The government and INPS (the National Social Security Institute) don't seem to exactly know how many early retired people there are out there. Every week we get new figures or they find out new people!

The current topic is the spending review. Where will cuts fall? There're the never ending proposals of cutting provinces (it's always proposed recently...but never done!).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on July 08, 2012, 06:45:45 AM
In other news, it turns out the retirement pension reform was messed up badly, having resulted in tenths of thousands formerly early-retired people now being left without any resources. The government barely seems to care.

The government and INPS (the National Social Security Institute) don't seem to exactly know how many early retired people there are out there. Every week we get new figures or they find out new people!

The current topic is the spending review. Where will cuts fall? There're the never ending proposals of cutting provinces (it's always proposed recently...but never done!).

Apprently,half of the provinces are going to be cut.
For the rest,typical spending review made of linear cuts. Disappointing.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 09, 2012, 07:36:23 AM
BTW, the new president of Confindustria (Italy's business association) is basically a left-winger. He basically is on the same line as the trade unions, in opposition to Monti's labor market reform.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on July 09, 2012, 08:33:26 AM
BTW, the new president of Confindustria (Italy's business association) is basically a left-winger. He basically is on the same line as the trade unions, in opposition to Monti's labor market reform.

I highly doubt that Squinzi is a "left winger",especially given those who supported him in Confindustria.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 09, 2012, 11:03:49 AM
BTW, the new president of Confindustria (Italy's business association) is basically a left-winger. He basically is on the same line as the trade unions, in opposition to Monti's labor market reform.

I highly doubt that Squinzi is a "left winger",especially given those who supported him in Confindustria.

In the context of Italy's current political spectrum, he definitely is. Though I guess Italy's situation is enough to make a left-winger of anybody (except the PdL :P).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 09, 2012, 11:42:16 AM
What's this I'm seeing about the electoral reforms and Napolitano?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on July 09, 2012, 04:14:44 PM
What's this I'm seeing about the electoral reforms and Napolitano?

He's telling the parties to hurry up and change the ridicolous electoral law we have.
Problem is that there is no agreement on one system between the parties,so probably there will be just some insignificant reform IMO.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 10, 2012, 09:49:52 AM
Monti has stated that he will not be a candidate in the next election. Sort of surprising (to me at least) that he even made the announcement. I thought it was understood that he wouldn't run.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 10, 2012, 10:39:26 AM
Monti has stated that he will not be a candidate in the next election. Sort of surprising (to me at least) that he even made the announcement. I thought it was understood that he wouldn't run.

He has already repeated it a countless number of times, but for some reason the media and pundits (as well as certain politicians) refuse to believe it. I guess Casini and the Third Pole are those who would most benefit from a great "Monti coalition" in 2013, in order to avoid marginalization.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 10, 2012, 10:50:01 AM
So Monti would have run under Terzo Polo?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 10, 2012, 01:28:44 PM
So Monti would have run under Terzo Polo?

This is politics-fiction, so don't take it too seriously. But considering how Casini has been Monti's top fanboy from the beginning, that would probably be the most likely situation if he ever runs.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on July 10, 2012, 03:03:47 PM
So Monti would have run under Terzo Polo?

The Terzo Polo is dead,as Casini said,but a centrist coalition built around Monti was UDC's dream scenario.
And a few people in PdL and PD liked it as well,I think.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 10, 2012, 03:13:34 PM
So Monti would have run under Terzo Polo?

The Terzo Polo is dead,as Casini said,but a centrist coalition built around Monti was UDC's dream scenario.
And a few people in PdL and PD liked it as well,I think.

I know, I know. :P   I'm just asking if Monti was going to run, would Terzo Polo be his coalition.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on July 10, 2012, 04:53:14 PM
So Monti would have run under Terzo Polo?

The Terzo Polo is dead,as Casini said,but a centrist coalition built around Monti was UDC's dream scenario.
And a few people in PdL and PD liked it as well,I think.

I know, I know. :P   I'm just asking if Monti was going to run, would Terzo Polo be his coalition.

Probably more than that.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 11, 2012, 05:24:44 AM
The "Monti coalition" as imagined by the media would include all the parties that currently back the government, from PD to PdL. It is, however, far from being a likely scenario.


Title: Berlusconi planning on running again.
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 11, 2012, 07:01:54 AM
It will never end - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/silvio-berlusconi/9391524/Silvio-Berlusconi-set-to-run-again-to-become-Italian-prime-minister.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/silvio-berlusconi/9391524/Silvio-Berlusconi-set-to-run-again-to-become-Italian-prime-minister.html)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on July 11, 2012, 07:07:55 AM
Wait...what? Why?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 11, 2012, 09:16:51 AM
()


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on July 11, 2012, 11:05:48 AM
This time I will seriously stop talking to anyone considering to vote for Berlusconi.
1994,1996,2001,2006,2008,2013

Ridicolous.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on July 13, 2012, 05:46:03 PM
Omg imagine a Vendola vs. Berlusconi vs. Grillo election.  That would be...colorful.  


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on July 15, 2012, 04:17:28 PM
Oh Christ. I honestly do not care to imagine the sort of Italian who would vote for him again now.

This is worse than Maurice Duplessis. With effort I can think of levels on which Duplessis was perhaps not a flagrantly despicable human being.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 16, 2012, 04:55:47 AM
Eh, in 1994 there were still large numbers of Italians who voted for successor parties to those destroyed by the scandals.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 16, 2012, 05:53:49 AM
Eh, in 1994 there were still large numbers of Italians who voted for successor parties to those destroyed by the scandals.

The fact that there are people who would still vote for PdL after everything is not what surprises me the most. Every major party has its core base of diehard supporters which nothing could make them change their minds (see PASOK, for example). What really creeps me out is the idea that Berlusconi's return could somehow help the PdL to regain lost voters.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Vosem on July 20, 2012, 05:39:01 PM
I was going to come here and post about Berlusconi coming back but I see predictably this has already been discussed.

What really creeps me out is the idea that Berlusconi's return could somehow help the PdL to regain lost voters.

This made me smile broadly. I'm not sure why.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Velasco on July 21, 2012, 01:36:53 PM
Berlusconi, smiles... Only caymans come to my mind, I don't know why. I feel sorry for the Italians that I met who felt ashamed of their country when Il Cavaliere was in office. All Europe is full of mediocre politicians, starting from Spain and the PM Rajoy and following by a bunch of myopic, stubborn or jingoistic guys looking for short-term solutions or in search of alibis and scapegoats. Berlusconi is out of these rankings, he deserves his own category. Hope that someone secludes him at Vila Certosa and never leave him go out again.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: batmacumba on July 31, 2012, 06:06:52 PM
As for the dutch election, some work on data:

()

()

as It can be seen, M5S primarily hurts the right, but the trend is of loosing momentum, after this year elections. I know that LN is traditionally colored green, but I've chose something nearer to international standards.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 01, 2012, 03:36:06 AM
Thanks for your work, Batmacumba. :)

For some reason, the Italian polling archive hasn't been updated since June 19. I can't find any poll after then...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: batmacumba on August 01, 2012, 07:44:17 AM
Yeah, that's weird. The english language wikipedia has an archive that goes to july 24. These graphics stops at 17. I'll update them.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on August 03, 2012, 08:30:14 PM
Well, I just read Vendola announced on Wednesday that he's running in the primaries.  Any news on what his prospects seem to be right now, Antonio?  Have any other candidates declared?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 04, 2012, 07:17:49 AM
I've not been following italian news since a while, sorry. ;)

Anyways, I planned to start my polling tracker, but I can't find the recent polls anymore. Shame... :(


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 04, 2012, 11:47:49 AM
Well, I just read Vendola announced on Wednesday that he's running in the primaries.  Any news on what his prospects seem to be right now, Antonio?  Have any other candidates declared?

It was mentioned earlier that Vendola apparently isn't much of a factor anymore. Of course, Bersani is also a candidate.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 04, 2012, 12:17:28 PM
Well, I just read Vendola announced on Wednesday that he's running in the primaries.  Any news on what his prospects seem to be right now, Antonio?  Have any other candidates declared?

It was mentioned earlier that Vendola apparently isn't much of a factor anymore. Of course, Bersani is also a candidate.

Has Renzi made up his mind ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 04, 2012, 12:23:40 PM
Well, I just read Vendola announced on Wednesday that he's running in the primaries.  Any news on what his prospects seem to be right now, Antonio?  Have any other candidates declared?

It was mentioned earlier that Vendola apparently isn't much of a factor anymore. Of course, Bersani is also a candidate.

Has Renzi made up his mind ?

I didn't know he was a rumored candidate. I also don't know much about him aside from the fact that he's the Mayor of Florence. Maybe italianboy can help us with this one...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on August 04, 2012, 10:41:17 PM
Well, I just read Vendola announced on Wednesday that he's running in the primaries.  Any news on what his prospects seem to be right now, Antonio?  Have any other candidates declared?

It was mentioned earlier that Vendola apparently isn't much of a factor anymore. Of course, Bersani is also a candidate.
I know, but would he still have a better chance than Bersani or the other candidates?  Plus, once he starts campaigning, I'm sure his star will rise again (since he's very good at public speaking).  Plus, as I've said, I'd love to see a Vendola vs. Berlusconi vs. Grillo race. 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 04, 2012, 10:53:07 PM
I think Bersani is the safe bet. Though, aside from Prodi, we have seen what safe bets have gotten the Italian Left...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on August 04, 2012, 11:13:53 PM
I think Bersani is the safe bet. Though, aside from Prodi, we have seen what safe bets have gotten the Italian Left...
Damn.  I really would love to see my fellow gay tree-hugging socialist kick Berlusconi's ass.  Plus, Berlusconi is such a better campaigner than Bersani that I'd actually think he'd be likelier to win (not that I'd claim to know, but given that Berlusconi tends to keep coming back again and again, and Bersani has, in Antonio's words, the charisma of a stale pizza, it would seem that way). 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: batmacumba on August 10, 2012, 08:11:47 AM
I've not been following italian news since a while, sorry. ;)

Anyways, I planned to start my polling tracker, but I can't find the recent polls anymore. Shame... :(

Antonio, I hate to say, but You're taking too much time to do It and I'll have to update mine... ;)

()

()

Lastpoll: August 1st


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 10, 2012, 08:22:35 AM
I've not been following italian news since a while, sorry. ;)

Anyways, I planned to start my polling tracker, but I can't find the recent polls anymore. Shame... :(

Antonio, I hate to say, but You're taking too much time to do It and I'll have to update mine... ;)

No problem, of course ! ;) But where do you find poll results ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: batmacumba on August 10, 2012, 08:35:06 AM
English wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Italian_general_election)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 10, 2012, 10:06:30 AM
Ah, I see. I always fear wikipedia on this kind of things not being exhaustive.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: batmacumba on August 10, 2012, 10:32:46 AM
And of using bad pollsters, too. But once the amount is large and I'm using a 6 variables polynomial regression, unless there's a huge amount of crappy pollsters It is usefull to observe trends and evaluate the big picture.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 10, 2012, 11:18:33 AM
Well, that PdL surge was certainly short lived and the jokers are rebounding. My God...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 05, 2012, 11:29:01 AM
August 29th IPR poll:

PD - 26%
PdL - 20%
M5S - 15%
UdC - 7%
IdV - 6%
SEL - 6%
LN - 5%
FLI - 2.5%
FdS - 1.5%
LD - 1%
Others - 10%




Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 11, 2012, 05:37:37 AM
I saw Matteo Renzi, the Mayor of Florence, on the cover of a magazine with a sub headline mentioning Bersani. Does anyone know if he is running in the PD leadership primary?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 11, 2012, 01:27:36 PM
Sadly, I'm completely unaware of Italian political developments since july, roughly. I need to find some good internet based media source.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 12, 2012, 05:37:00 AM
Looks like he's running.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on September 12, 2012, 06:02:30 AM
I have seen some stuff that looks like he's running.  Since I liked Vendola's Facebook page, I keep seeing news articles (all in Italian, unfortunately) and to pages on Vendola's web site (or SEL's, not sure which).  And there has been some stuff about Renzi, and it certainly looks like there's a catfight going on between those two (or was). 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 14, 2012, 01:01:10 PM
Berlusconi set to reclaim the PdL leadership tomorrow.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/silvio-berlusconi/9543588/Silvio-Berlusconi-poised-to-announce-political-comeback.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on September 14, 2012, 01:16:35 PM
It will never end... -______-'


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on September 14, 2012, 02:16:53 PM
Goddamit.  Message to the center-left primary voters:
Get your ing acts together and nominate Vendola or condemn Italy to god-knows-how-many more years of rule by this paedophile clown!  Your choice!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 14, 2012, 03:26:08 PM
Berlusconi set to reclaim the PdL leadership tomorrow.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/silvio-berlusconi/9543588/Silvio-Berlusconi-poised-to-announce-political-comeback.html

Dear Jesus God no.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 14, 2012, 03:52:36 PM
I have to say highly doubt this will actually affect Italian politics apart from further sinking the PdL in electoral abysses.

That said... I shudder at the possibility of being wrong. The extent of human stupidity is limitless.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 15, 2012, 07:08:41 AM
I have some...eh...well connected friends in the party. I visited them yesterday and they were saying how Berlusconi had a big speech today (which they unfortunately had to miss). They didn't tell me it was his official reclaiming of the leadership speech though.

Speaking of PdL and my visit...



()



:P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 15, 2012, 07:16:48 AM
Goddamit.  Message to the center-left primary voters:
Get your ing acts together and nominate Vendola

Uh...he has to be the least electable, dude.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 15, 2012, 09:53:26 AM
He skipped the youth rally and is struggling with indecision. Many supporters are pissed that he didn't attend - http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-italy-berlusconibre88d1bj-20120914,0,7153822.story (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-italy-berlusconibre88d1bj-20120914,0,7153822.story)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 21, 2012, 08:34:54 AM
PdL is embroiled in a party expenses scandal in Lazio. The PdL Governor might actually resign over it even though party leaders, including Berlusconi, are urging her not to in hopes of avoiding an early election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on September 21, 2012, 05:05:08 PM
Goddamit.  Message to the center-left primary voters:
Get your ing acts together and nominate Vendola

Uh...he has to be the least electable, dude.
In terms of ideology, yes.  In terms of skill, campaigning abilities, and being able to get the votes of people who otherwise would not vote to vote, he's probably the most electable. 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 21, 2012, 05:07:57 PM
If Berlusconi doesn't run it doesn't matter. For some reason the Italian right has never developed a rock-solid ideological base of say, 25-30% of voters like the PD.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 22, 2012, 09:50:27 AM
Goddamit.  Message to the center-left primary voters:
Get your ing acts together and nominate Vendola

Uh...he has to be the least electable, dude.
In terms of ideology, yes.  In terms of skill, campaigning abilities, and being able to get the votes of people who otherwise would not vote to vote, he's probably the most electable. 

Ok, that's fair. It certainly does take some skill to win as a gay Communist in Puglia. That said, it helped that the center-right was split. We'll see if that is the case nationally.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 22, 2012, 12:33:19 PM
If Berlusconi doesn't run it doesn't matter. For some reason the Italian right has never developed a rock-solid ideological base of say, 25-30% of voters like the PD.

I don't mean to cause any offence, but I can't get my head around this post. Is it from some parallel universe or other?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 22, 2012, 04:49:16 PM
If Berlusconi doesn't run it doesn't matter. For some reason the Italian right has never developed a rock-solid ideological base of say, 25-30% of voters like the PD.

I don't mean to cause any offence, but I can't get my head around this post. Is it from some parallel universe or other?

Would this perhaps be true of 'any given party of the post-DC Italian right'?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on September 24, 2012, 03:21:57 AM
If Berlusconi doesn't run it doesn't matter. For some reason the Italian right has never developed a rock-solid ideological base of say, 25-30% of voters like the PD.

I don't mean to cause any offence, but I can't get my head around this post. Is it from some parallel universe or other?

Indeed, there is not a single strong party that will always have solid basis of voters like PD, but there is a very big part of electorate (that now in polls are often among "uncertain") that are willing to vote "anything but left".


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 27, 2012, 03:02:38 AM
 "Lazio's Governor - Renata Polverini of the PdL - has resigned."


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 28, 2012, 12:59:00 AM
So that means new elections? Great, hopefully this will be another hammering for PdL.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 03, 2012, 08:39:47 AM
Thanks for passing that along, px.  ;)

Yes, there will be new elections but they’ll coincide with next Spring’s General election. As long as Bonino isn’t the center-left candidate, I can breath easily.  :P



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on October 04, 2012, 09:19:26 AM
No, the elections will be before Xmas, because the law requires to hold elections in 90 days after resignations.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 04, 2012, 09:32:35 AM
Ah, I was told (by an Italian) that it would be next Spring. So this should be even worse for PdL, right? Who are the rumored candidates on each side? Alemanno?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on October 05, 2012, 02:39:05 AM
No, not Alemanno, someone "fresher" probably, like Giorgia Meloni, or supporting someone from another party like PDL did in Sicily


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 05, 2012, 03:15:32 AM
PdL has no chance regardless of their candidate (and it appears it might be Storace,LOL).
PD's candidate (and IdV and SeL have already said they'll support him) is Zingaretti,the hugely popular President of the Rome province.

He was supposed to be our candidate in the mayoral elections,but since the Regional ones will be before then,they convinced him to "switch candidature".
I am a bit worried about who'll be our candidate for the mayoral ones now,but anyway Alemanno has destroyed any chance of a center-right win.

As for when the Reginal elections will be,they are SUPPOSED to be before Christmas,but there might be an unique "election day" given that in Spring we'll have the national,mayoral and provincial elections.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 05, 2012, 01:31:41 PM
I read that Alemanno said today that there shouldn't even be a PdL list in Rome in the next elections and believes the party should be "refounded."

How would this work? And what's the point of refounding the party if the list shouldn't even be run (or does he mean that a list shouldn't be run unless the party is refounded)? Does this mean a candidate for the Right will likely be from outside of the PdL now?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 05, 2012, 01:38:22 PM
Back to strictly national news...

A new Ipsos poll apparently shows center-right voters preferring that Alfano run for Prime Minister instead of Berlusconi!

Also, the PD primary looks very interesting: Bersani - 38%   Renzi - 36%

National ballot: PD - 28%  PdL - 19%  M5S - 18%   


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 06, 2012, 02:07:07 PM
On an unrelated noted, 70-80% of Venetians favor independence? Ugh.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9589732/Mass-rally-in-Venice-to-call-for-independence-from-Italy.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9589732/Mass-rally-in-Venice-to-call-for-independence-from-Italy.html)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 06, 2012, 06:31:30 PM
Yeah, this country is depressing...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 07, 2012, 07:10:37 AM
On an unrelated noted, 70-80% of Venetians favor independence? Ugh.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9589732/Mass-rally-in-Venice-to-call-for-independence-from-Italy.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9589732/Mass-rally-in-Venice-to-call-for-independence-from-Italy.html)

Lol,never heard of that "Indipendenza Veneta" movement.

In the meanwile,extremely close primary for the centerleft.
Last polls gave Bersani and Renzi around 38%,with Vendola in the 20%s and the others in the low single-digits.
Personally I am still undecided between Bersani and Renzi,even though slightly leaning for Renzi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 07, 2012, 07:35:13 AM
When is the exact date (or is the primary held over two days, too?) for the primary?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 07, 2012, 02:09:07 PM
On an unrelated noted, 70-80% of Venetians favor independence? Ugh.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9589732/Mass-rally-in-Venice-to-call-for-independence-from-Italy.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9589732/Mass-rally-in-Venice-to-call-for-independence-from-Italy.html)

Lol,never heard of that "Indipendenza Veneta" movement.

In the meanwile,extremely close primary for the centerleft.
Last polls gave Bersani and Renzi around 38%,with Vendola in the 20%s and the others in the low single-digits.
Personally I am still undecided between Bersani and Renzi,even though slightly leaning for Renzi.

I hope the system they use is two-rounds.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on October 08, 2012, 08:20:12 AM
Could someone explain the views of Bersani and Renzi in a few words ? Lazy to wiki them, plus I trust more the people here than wikipedia for these kinds of things...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 08, 2012, 11:12:47 AM
Could someone explain the views of Bersani and Renzi in a few words ? Lazy to wiki them, plus I trust more the people here than wikipedia for these kinds of things...

Bersani - old-style socialdemocrat,simple as that.
 He's not bad as a secretary and as a person,but many of the PD's old guard who support him are simply orrible (like D'Alema and Bindi). He's started to renew the party, but not too convincigly.
I would have no problem voting for him in the general election if he wins the primary anyway.

Renzi - more centrist, even though not even close to the UdC's positions.
He's the mayor of Florence, and his main theme is the renewal of the party.
Economically he is more centrist than Bersani, even though not as much as many depict him.
He's way more charismatic,and attracts many former center-right electors.


Overall the clash between these two is more over "style" than "substance" IMO.
I think I'll be voting for Renzi just to try and have some horrible,horrible people leave the Parliament and the PD's center stage.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 08, 2012, 11:15:33 AM
Anyway the primaries will be on two turns, with one voting day each time (a Sunday,even though I don't recall the exact day).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 08, 2012, 12:06:27 PM
Glad Renzi doesn't sound awful.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 08, 2012, 12:30:58 PM
Bersani is a former Communist, Renzi comes from a DC background.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 08, 2012, 02:56:19 PM
I don't think they have meaningful policy differences at this point. All of the PD is made of Third Way centrists at this point.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 08, 2012, 04:17:14 PM
I don't think they have meaningful policy differences at this point. All of the PD is made of Third Way centrists at this point.

I guess it comes down to style and if PdL voters still think they have a shot, I guess they better hope for Bersani to survive.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 11, 2012, 10:59:59 AM
Things seem to go from bad to worse for PdL - the Governor of Lombardy is now faced with the possibility of Lega Nord pulling out of the Regional Council. Formigoni would then have to rule and run with just PdL which would affect elections in Veneto and Piedmont as they are supposedly part of a joint political agreement.

Lega Nord is threatening to quit because of a personal scandal surrounding Formigoni, in hopes that he'd step aside. It's never good when someone is forced to say they won't resign. Formigoni had to do just that today.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 11, 2012, 12:05:02 PM
Oh, and Formigoni is also taking heat for a councillor in his government allegedly buying votes from 'Ndrangheta. Can't forget that little tidbit.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 11, 2012, 12:06:45 PM
Things seem to go from bad to worse for PdL - the Governor of Lombardy is now faced with the possibility of Lega Nord pulling out of the Regional Council. Formigoni would then have to rule and run with just PdL which would affect elections in Veneto and Piedmont as they are supposedly part of a joint political agreement.

Lega Nord is threatening to quit because of a personal scandal surrounding Formigoni, in hopes that he'd step aside. It's never good when someone is forced to say they won't resign. Formigoni had to do just that today.

The situation in Lombardia is pathetic.
I've lost the count of the number of PdL and Lega regional councillors who have been forced to resign due to arrests and/or judicial inquiries.
It's a miracle,and a horrible one, that he still is Governor.

He better enjoy what little time left he has, since probably he'll go to jail after the process regarding Lombardia's health care system and Formigoni's corruption.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 11, 2012, 12:56:40 PM
Oh, and Formigoni is also taking heat for a councillor in his government allegedly buying votes from 'Ndrangheta. Can't forget that little tidbit.

Talking of which: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19886631


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 22, 2012, 12:05:42 PM
Latest poll by TgLa7...

Prime Minister preference:

Monti - 20%
Renzi - 12%
Bersani - 11%
Berlusconi - 8%

(I guess Vendola isn't registering enough support. Seems strange.)

Party preference:

PD - 28%
M5S - 18%
PdL - 17%
LN - 6%
UdC - 6%
SEL - 5%
IdV - 4%
FLI - 3%
LD - 2%
FdS - 2%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on October 22, 2012, 01:17:33 PM

....


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 22, 2012, 01:58:16 PM

Hey, Italians at least keep it interesting.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on October 22, 2012, 02:33:08 PM
As soon I hear about M5S, I can't help, but think about Tre Stelle cheese.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 22, 2012, 03:15:16 PM
The "Prime Minister preference" polls are utterly useless ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 22, 2012, 03:17:12 PM
Remember that we're dealing with a country that voted for the DC's for forty years, and then decided that Berlusconi wasn't such a bad chap after all. Nothing that can possibly happen is as bizarre as what already has done so...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 22, 2012, 03:50:57 PM
The "Prime Minister preference" polls are utterly useless ;)

Of course but it's still interesting. Any idea why Vendola wasn't registering enough support or not included in the poll?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 22, 2012, 03:54:18 PM
The "Prime Minister preference" polls are utterly useless ;)

Of course but it's still interesting. Any idea why Vendola wasn't registering enough support or not included in the poll?
Vendola is polling a decent third in the center-left primaries,and he's got quite a bit of media coverage.
This just shows how those kind of polls are useless,and are used only to give the media some new (small) news.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 22, 2012, 04:15:08 PM
And when is the primary? Every time I check for the exact date, I read that it hasn't been set yet but it's at the end of 2012.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on October 22, 2012, 05:34:44 PM
I expect the M5S will have the same sort of deflating momentum as the Pirates are experiencing right now in Germany when the actual alection will approach. Otherwise, it will in any case be fun to watch :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 23, 2012, 12:29:41 AM
So PdL still hasn't regained any ground since his crash last Spring? I still don't think it will stay at this level, but if it does, God it will be beautiful... Hopefully the Formigoni trainwreck will help keeping them to the ground. Lega, on the other hand, seems marginally up from its 4-5% lows. Sad, but after all they're in the opposition, so it's easy for them.

Surprisingly good PD levels, but it seems to be siphoning IdV and SEL, so it sucks. :(


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 24, 2012, 02:43:53 PM
And when is the primary? Every time I check for the exact date, I read that it hasn't been set yet but it's at the end of 2012.
25th of November.
The 2nd round two weeks after.

And now,Berlusconi is officially out.
PdL primaries on the 16th of December, with Alfano,Alemanno and Santanchè.
3 complete jokes.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 24, 2012, 03:34:59 PM
Wait, Berlusconi has given up?!?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 24, 2012, 08:27:53 PM
And when is the primary? Every time I check for the exact date, I read that it hasn't been set yet but it's at the end of 2012.
25th of November.
The 2nd round two weeks after.

And now,Berlusconi is officially out.
PdL primaries on the 16th of December, with Alfano,Alemanno and Santanchè.
3 complete jokes.

Whoa, whoa, whoa! Silvio is officially out? Did he announce it today? And what the hell is with having a primary right before Christmas?

Is Alfano favored to win? I want to say that I'd like to see Alemanno win but he's probably the least electable, right? And who is this Santanchè? I've seen the name before but don't remember why.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 24, 2012, 08:33:23 PM
Oh, wow. Santanchè is a woman. This should be interesting!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on October 24, 2012, 09:09:47 PM
There is a trend of having politicians with names of foreign countries or languages?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RodPresident on October 24, 2012, 09:27:25 PM
And Alemanno comes from National Alliance as Santanché. Alfano comes from Sicilian Christian Democracy tradition. Maybe a firebrand can keep some PdL voters from voting Grillo and even for a populist candidate of left.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 24, 2012, 09:40:39 PM
There is a trend of having politicians with names of foreign countries or languages?

Santanchè? Spanish or Portuguese?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on October 24, 2012, 10:31:52 PM
There is a trend of having politicians with names of foreign countries or languages?

Santanchè? Spanish or Portuguese?

No, Alemanno is a local local in Alsace/Swiss/Germany. Called Alemannic in English.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 25, 2012, 07:38:37 AM
There is a trend of having politicians with names of foreign countries or languages?

Santanchè? Spanish or Portuguese?

No, Alemanno is a local local in Alsace/Swiss/Germany. Called Alemannic in English.

Really? Interesting. I was going to say Santanchè still seemed Italian but figured it was the most obvious of the three names to possibly be not-Italian.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on October 25, 2012, 07:57:12 AM
There is a trend of having politicians with names of foreign countries or languages?

Santanchè? Spanish or Portuguese?

No, Alemanno is a local local in Alsace/Swiss/Germany. Called Alemannic in English.

Really? Interesting. I was going to say Santanchè still seemed Italian but figured it was the most obvious of the three names to possibly be not-Italian.

Well, no. Alemanno is an Italian word, but it means Alemannic in Italian.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on October 25, 2012, 08:23:37 AM
A trend begins with two however, no ?

And, to respond to all of you asking, yes, Berlusconi finally said he would give up for this election. In France it was in the news. Doesn't really mean we got rid of him ad vitam aeternam though...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 25, 2012, 08:56:06 AM
Alemanno denied he'll run.
In the meanwhile Galan, former governor of Veneto and quite moderate, announced he'll run.

Btw, Santanchè is a complete joke. She was the candidate PM for The Right in 2008, then went back to PdL. She is only famous for her habit of openly insulting people, both on television and on the street.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 25, 2012, 08:57:21 AM
There is a trend of having politicians with names of foreign countries or languages?

Santanchè? Spanish or Portuguese?

No, Alemanno is a local local in Alsace/Swiss/Germany. Called Alemannic in English.

Really? Interesting. I was going to say Santanchè still seemed Italian but figured it was the most obvious of the three names to possibly be not-Italian.

Well, no. Alemanno is an Italian word, but it means Alemannic in Italian.

Yes, of course. Like "Russo" also means "Russian."


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 25, 2012, 08:59:01 AM
Alemanno denied he'll run.
In the meanwhile Galan, former governor of Veneto and quite moderate, announced he'll run.

Btw, Santanchè is a complete joke. She was the candidate PM for The Right in 2008, then went back to PdL. She is only famous for her habit of openly insulting people, both on television and on the street.

Interesting about Galan. An Italian friend of mine who is awfully conservative (even by American standards) said he is likely supporting him.

Sounds like Santanchè is going to be a real treat! :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on October 25, 2012, 04:37:25 PM
Wow.  Vendola facing possible jail time. 
[url][http://touch.chicagotribune.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-73036432//url]


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 25, 2012, 09:10:00 PM
Santachè is the Italian Sarah Palin.

As for Berlusconi, that's awesome. We're really rid of him.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 25, 2012, 09:47:29 PM
Wow.  Vendola facing possible jail time. 
[url][http://touch.chicagotribune.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-73036432//url]

Ouch!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on October 26, 2012, 07:36:39 AM
Alemanno denied he'll run.
In the meanwhile Galan, former governor of Veneto and quite moderate, announced he'll run.

Btw, Santanchè is a complete joke. She was the candidate PM for The Right in 2008, then went back to PdL. She is only famous for her habit of openly insulting people, both on television and on the street.

Interesting about Galan. An Italian friend of mine who is awfully conservative (even by American standards) said he is likely supporting him.

Sounds like Santanchè is going to be a real treat! :D

No, Santanchè is really a laugh, she has no real support behind her and she's mostly a media-phenomenon. Galan is one of the few real neo-lberal.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 26, 2012, 08:01:58 AM
The accusations against Vendola,even though not new at all,probably killed any momentum he had.
Bersani vs Renzi,then!

Btw, a major topic at the moment is that of the rules for the center-left primaries.

Those behind Bersani (who are a majority in the internal committees) changed them drastically with respect to the ones used in the past (those used to elect Prodi,Veltroni and Bersani), so as to have as little turnout as possible, thus favouring Bersani.
It's actually one of the reasons I'll be voting for Renzi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 26, 2012, 08:24:12 AM
So you finally committed to a candidate? :P

I think I'm rooting for Renzi. The writing seems to be on the wall for the General (though never underestimate their ability to collapse) and Renzi seems tolerable. Plus, I'm a grassroots/anti machine guy.

Hope Gallan has more of a web presence soon. I can't find much information.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 26, 2012, 09:39:03 AM
And just by a total coincidence, two days after stating that he won't be a candidate, Berlusconi is sentenced to four years in prison for tax fraud.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 26, 2012, 09:41:19 AM
And just by a total coincidence, two days after stating that he won't be a candidate, Berlusconi is sentenced to four years in prison for tax fraud.
And for 3 years he won't be able to hold any pubblic office.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 26, 2012, 09:43:07 AM
And just by a total coincidence, two days after stating that he won't be a candidate, Berlusconi is sentenced to four years in prison for tax fraud.
And for 3 years he won't be able to hold any pubblic office.


Has he resigned yet? When is the prison term starting?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 26, 2012, 09:49:54 AM
And just by a total coincidence, two days after stating that he won't be a candidate, Berlusconi is sentenced to four years in prison for tax fraud.
And for 3 years he won't be able to hold any pubblic office.


Has he resigned yet? When is the prison term starting?
Resign? Are you kidding? LOL
Anyway there will be no jail before the appeal, and given he's pretty old,probably not even afterwards.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on October 26, 2012, 01:40:51 PM
The accusations against Vendola,even though not new at all,probably killed any momentum he had.
Wow.  So the accusations are actually credible?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 26, 2012, 09:33:50 PM
Statute of limitation will probably run out before all appeals are exhausted, which means Berlusconi won't serve any time in jail. But at least we can definitively write him off Italy's political stage.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 27, 2012, 03:46:08 PM
The accusations against Vendola,even though not new at all,probably killed any momentum he had.
Wow.  So the accusations are actually credible?
Health care in Puglia is absolute chaos.
Vendola helped to improve it a lot after that Fitto (PdL,former governor) had destroyed it, but still, one can't rule out that he did something wrong in the meanwhile.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on October 29, 2012, 09:49:29 AM

Sicily regional elections

Turnout: 47.42%

2,280 polling stations reported out of 5,308

Crocetta (PD+UDC) 30.8%
Musumeci (PdL) 24.8%
Cancellieri (Grillo) 18.8%
Micciché (Fli, MPA, Big South) 14.9%
Marano (Di Pietro+Left) 6.2%

Lists
5 Stars (Grillo) 15.5%
PD 13.8%
PdL 12.3%
UDC 10.2%
MPA 9%
Movimento Politico (Crocetta) 6.8%
Big South 6.4%
Cantiere Popolare (Musumeci) 6.2%
Musomeci for President 5.5%
FLI 3.9%
Italy of Values 3.5%
SEL 3.2%
Centrist Alliance (Musumeci) 0.2%

various other lists not supporting big contenders taking 0-1.5%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Kitteh on October 29, 2012, 11:17:51 AM

Sicily regional elections

Turnout: 47.42%

2,280 polling stations reported out of 5,308

Crocetta (PD+UDC) 30.8%
Musumeci (PdL) 24.8%
Cancellieri (Grillo) 18.8%
Micciché (Fli, MPA, Big South) 14.9%
Marano (Di Pietro+Left) 6.2%

Lists
5 Stars (Grillo) 15.5%
PD 13.8%
PdL 12.3%
UDC 10.2%
MPA 9%
Movimento Politico (Crocetta) 6.8%
Big South 6.4%
Cantiere Popolare (Musumeci) 6.2%
Musomeci for President 5.5%
FLI 3.9%
Italy of Values 3.5%
SEL 3.2%
Centrist Alliance (Musumeci) 0.2%

various other lists not supporting big contenders taking 0-1.5%


Sicily is traditionally one of the most conservative areas in Italy, no?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 29, 2012, 11:44:09 AM
Sicily is definitely one of the most conservative areas in Italy.
I don't remember the center-left winning regionally ever,honestly.

The victory is due obviously to the break-up in the center-right,but anyway gone are the times when the center-right candidate would get >60% just because of his party.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 29, 2012, 12:01:59 PM
Oh wow. I didn't even know there were regional elections going on. Looks like FLI and MpA played a big role.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on October 29, 2012, 12:09:17 PM
Crocetta isn't likely to get an overall majority in the regional chamber though.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 29, 2012, 12:10:00 PM
Oh wow. I didn't even know there were regional elections going on. Looks like FLI and MpA played a big role.
FLI doesn't count for anything. Micciché is just a former PdL member who is anything but a moderate. Since FLI could not support PdL's official candidate Musumeci, and since PD did not want them, they joined Micciché.

Just looking at the percentages, it's easy to see that FLI's 4% counted for very little.
Also, as it often happens with local elections in Southern Italy, a lot of those votes came from Micciché voters who were told (or had a personal interest) to support also the smaller lists, so as to get more people elected.
So it's a bit silly to look at the percentages of the small parties.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 29, 2012, 12:10:41 PM
Crocetta isn't likely to get an overall majority in the regional chamber though.
Last I heard, he was going to get 40 deputies out of 80.
It shouldn't be too hard to govern overall.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 29, 2012, 12:18:10 PM
Btw, Crocetta is a gay poet, and a former communist.
Also fought mafia as a mayor of Gela.

Talk about an interesting candidate...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 29, 2012, 12:20:43 PM
Btw, Crocetta is a gay poet, and a former communist.
Also fought mafia as a mayor of Gela.

Talk about an interesting candidate...

The new Vendola. ::)

And when I said the FLI played a role, I meant the candidate that ran under the FLI and MpA banner. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on October 29, 2012, 12:54:33 PM
Btw, Crocetta is a gay poet, and a former communist.
Also fought mafia as a mayor of Gela.

Talk about an interesting candidate...

Again?
Why that kind of candidates manage to win right strongholds?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on October 29, 2012, 01:29:17 PM
Crocetta isn't likely to get an overall majority in the regional chamber though.
Last I heard, he was going to get 40 deputies out of 80.
It shouldn't be too hard to govern overall.

I think the overall number of Cllrs (regional deputies as they call them there) is 90. 80 elected with PR lists + 10 as a sort of bonus

At the moment

5 Stars 14 seats
PD 14
PdL 13
UDC 11
MPA 10
Grande Sud 5
Crocetta for President 5
Musumeci for President 4
Cantiere Popolare 4

+
Crocetta
Musumeci
the whole blocked list linked to Crocetta (8 people)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 29, 2012, 02:17:11 PM
39 out of 90 then. 7 needed for a majority... but I guess the M5S deputies won't be as radical as Grillo is.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on November 01, 2012, 03:02:55 PM
http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFBRE89U0M120121031 (http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFBRE89U0M120121031)
Vendola acquitted. 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 01, 2012, 07:55:37 PM
I assume he's politically dead. Scandals like that are OK in Italy if you are in the mainstream parties, but not if you're someone with the sort of appeal Vendola had.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 13, 2012, 12:16:48 PM
Just read that there was a leadership debate between Bersani, Renzi and Vendola yesterday. It's being described as a "game show style" format. 

The Chicago Tribune found it worthy to note that Renzi wore a purple tie because it was "favored by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair." Uh...isn't purple the official Anti Berlusconi color? That probably has more to do with it (or Renzi just wanted to wear purple).

33% said Bersani won while 31% said Renzi won the debate.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on November 13, 2012, 12:30:18 PM
Just read that there was a leadership debate between Bersani, Renzi and Vendola yesterday. It's being described as a "game show style" format. 

....


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 13, 2012, 12:37:47 PM
They're not used to formal debates. They usually just argue on talk shows so the set up at podiums with time buzzers made it seem like a game show.

By the way, the PD official website added to the comedy by posting a photoshopped image of each candidate's head on each Fantastic 5 character.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on November 13, 2012, 12:46:49 PM
This was a RAI-debate, right? Were there semi-nude women involved?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 13, 2012, 02:04:02 PM
Oh Italy...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on November 13, 2012, 02:23:23 PM
This was a RAI-debate, right? Were there semi-nude women involved?
Nope,it was on Sky.
2 million viewers,apparently.

As for Renzi's tie,he was forced to wear one. He didn't want to in the first place.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 13, 2012, 04:13:06 PM
Yeah, I read that he takes the casual dress thing to a whole new level. Not wanting to wear a tie during the debate? Come on. Now it just seems like an act. Though Sky forcing him to wear one seems just as silly.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on November 13, 2012, 06:52:12 PM
I fail to see how one wan force another to wear a tie... And I fail to see what it brings to one's political message... Wearing a tie is to me just a sign of gregarism...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 16, 2012, 03:56:12 PM
Some help, please, from the Italians: is this March 10th date the day for the Parliamentary elections or just the regional Special elections?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 19, 2012, 11:56:04 AM
Former Youth Policy Minister Giorgia Meloni has thrown her hat in the ring. It's looking like a real circus for the Right. Alessandra Mussolini is even in the running.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on November 19, 2012, 12:53:26 PM
Some help, please, from the Italians: is this March 10th date the day for the Parliamentary elections or just the regional Special elections?

just the regional special elections...for the moment
PdL would like to have the parliamentary elections on the same day. Nothing has been decided yet though. However, pushing regional elections from January to March makes a big election day more likely than before.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on November 19, 2012, 01:11:54 PM
Yeah, I read that he takes the casual dress thing to a whole new level. Not wanting to wear a tie during the debate? Come on. Now it just seems like an act. Though Sky forcing him to wear one seems just as silly.

Right, because it's monumentally unreasonable to choose not to wear a tie and resist against being forced to do so(!)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 19, 2012, 05:01:33 PM
Some help, please, from the Italians: is this March 10th date the day for the Parliamentary elections or just the regional Special elections?

just the regional special elections...for the moment
PdL would like to have the parliamentary elections on the same day. Nothing has been decided yet though. However, pushing regional elections from January to March makes a big election day more likely than before.

Why is the PdL so eager to be annihilated?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 19, 2012, 05:14:34 PM
Some help, please, from the Italians: is this March 10th date the day for the Parliamentary elections or just the regional Special elections?

just the regional special elections...for the moment
PdL would like to have the parliamentary elections on the same day. Nothing has been decided yet though. However, pushing regional elections from January to March makes a big election day more likely than before.

Why is the PdL so eager to be annihilated?

death wish


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on November 19, 2012, 06:21:59 PM
Some help, please, from the Italians: is this March 10th date the day for the Parliamentary elections or just the regional Special elections?

just the regional special elections...for the moment
PdL would like to have the parliamentary elections on the same day. Nothing has been decided yet though. However, pushing regional elections from January to March makes a big election day more likely than before.

Why is the PdL so eager to be annihilated?
It's been clear for a long time that,after Berlusconi stepped down,the center-right would have been nothing but a bunch of undisciplined clowns and wh*res,people with no ideology and no shame,who will fall into irrelevancy within months.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 19, 2012, 06:31:04 PM
Well, I wish the "whores with no ideology" would make up their damn minds as to when the primary will be. :P You'd think a party with everyone and their mother running for leader would at least be able to figure that out. Why the feet dragging? And with all of these candidates, does Alfano benefit?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 19, 2012, 08:37:42 PM
BTW, if elections are held in March, April or May, that means my parents will have to fill and send my ballots. That's a shame, because my first vote for a non-referendum Italian election is an important step in my civic life. :'(


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 19, 2012, 08:48:54 PM
BTW, if elections are held in March, April or May, that means my parents will have to fill and send my ballots. That's a shame, because my first vote for a non-referendum Italian election is an important step in my civic life. :'(

You shouldn't be allowed to vote anyway once your family relocated to...that place.

:P

Who are you supporting in the primary? I guess Vendola.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 20, 2012, 12:09:47 AM
BTW, if elections are held in March, April or May, that means my parents will have to fill and send my ballots. That's a shame, because my first vote for a non-referendum Italian election is an important step in my civic life. :'(

You shouldn't be allowed to vote anyway once your family relocated to...that place.

:P

Who are you supporting in the primary? I guess Vendola.

Yeah, Vendola would be my choice, but at this point it's gonna be between Renzi and Bersani. So, really, anybody but that old stale party boss. I'm not necessarily fond of Renzi's views, but at least he injects some life in a party of useless tools.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 22, 2012, 02:09:33 PM
Looks like the PdL primary is set for December 16th.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 24, 2012, 01:10:23 PM
Tomorrow is the first round of the center-left primary.

Does anyone know the time the polls close (Italian time) and if we can expect real time coverage (network?) or will the full results be released at one by the party at a later time?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 24, 2012, 03:04:09 PM
Tomorrow, already?

God, I really hope Renzi pulls an upset. After all that happened since 2008, we can't end up with Bersani.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 24, 2012, 03:32:18 PM
Tomorrow, already?

God, I really hope Renzi pulls an upset. After all that happened since 2008, we can't end up with Bersani.

Yep, tomorrow is the first round. The inevitable runoff is next Sunday. I think Bersani has this. If I read correctly, he seems to be pulling away and Vendola voters should go his way in the runoff. A shame...


Title: Berlusconi returns? Part XXIX
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 24, 2012, 04:04:02 PM
It never ends - Silvio says he's considering a 2013 run - http://my.chicagotribune.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-73437129/ (http://my.chicagotribune.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-73437129/)

Alfano says it makes no sense for him to run if Berlusconi returns. Then about a half hour ago, Alfano posted a video on his Facebook page featuring a montage of photos from his career and ending with an image that read "Io sto con Alfano - Primarie Popolo della Liberta."

That makes me believe there was some development between when Silvio made the statement and now, signaling that he's definitely not running. Alfano's über loyalty to Berlusconi would have prevented him from releasing such a message if he didn't know for sure that Silvio was passing on a run.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 24, 2012, 04:11:48 PM
Not coming back. The Italian right needs to find a younger, talented, cleanish leader who can build a new party from scratch- with an interest in good policy, not just good entertainment. Unless/until the right credibly rebuilds the PD will dominate.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 24, 2012, 04:17:44 PM
One of the candidates in the primary is Giorgia Meloni, the former Youth Minister under Berlusconi. She's 35 but I'm not sure she represents a "new" party given her Berlusconi connections.  Alfano is relatively young (42) but he has the same connections.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 24, 2012, 04:27:45 PM
4 possible explanations:

1. He knows his career is over and wants to bring the party down with him.

2. He's trolling Italians.

3. Dementia.

4. A combination of the above 3.



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 24, 2012, 06:19:59 PM
I think he's trolling to take away attention from the center-left primary. Or at least that's what I hope...

Anyway, I totally forgot the youngest candidate in the running for the center-right leadership: Alessandro Cattaneo, the 33 year old Mayor of Pavia, Lombardy. So the PdL can't be called the party of just the old guys.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 24, 2012, 06:24:20 PM
I think he's trolling to take away attention from the center-left primary. Or at least that's what I hope...

Well, that's would be a really dumb move. It's pretty clear the more attention the PdL gets, the lower it falls.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 24, 2012, 06:28:14 PM
I think he's trolling to take away attention from the center-left primary. Or at least that's what I hope...

Well, that's would be a really dumb move. It's pretty clear the more attention the PdL gets, the lower it falls.

He might want to direct more attention towards Alfano leading up to this primary. Alfano continues to play loyal soldier and when Berlusconi finally gives a definite "no," he can turn to Alfano and give him the most watched blessing in Italian politics, killing off the slew of other center-right candidates.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on November 24, 2012, 06:41:31 PM
Tomorrow is the first round of the center-left primary.

Does anyone know the time the polls close (Italian time) and if we can expect real time coverage (network?) or will the full results be released at one by the party at a later time?

Voting is from 8:00 to 20:00

I hope the party won't release the results all at once but in a sort of live update online during the count.

I have decided to vote Puppato tomorrow


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 24, 2012, 07:05:07 PM
Grazie!  :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on November 25, 2012, 10:07:38 AM
I think he's trolling to take away attention from the center-left primary. Or at least that's what I hope...

Anyway, I totally forgot the youngest candidate in the running for the center-right leadership: Alessandro Cattaneo, the 33 year old Mayor of Pavia, Lombardy. So the PdL can't be called the party of just the old guys.
No one ever said that.
PdL is full of youngsters who don't know jacksh*t about politics,economics or even life.


FWIW,just came back from voting.
I voted for Renzi,but I'll be quite fine with the result no matter who the final winner is.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 25, 2012, 10:12:44 AM
It was just a response to Rogue's comment that they need new, young leadership. It was my way of saying there's reason to be hopeful since it isn't a party full of (literslly) old Silvio heads. The issue, though, is that some (or most?) of the youngsters have strong connections to Berlusconi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 25, 2012, 12:38:10 PM
Reuters is reporting that results are expected around midnight (Italian time) so I assume it's just going to be a publication of the final result. :(


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on November 25, 2012, 01:28:35 PM
Reuters is reporting that results are expected around midnight (Italian time) so I assume it's just going to be a publication of the final result. :(

PD says we will get first 300 polling stations just after 9PM


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 25, 2012, 01:38:29 PM
Andrea, do you know if Sky or RAI will be covering the results live?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on November 25, 2012, 01:55:12 PM
Andrea, do you know if Sky or RAI will be covering the results live?

I just checked:  SKY, Rai 3 (they start at 21:30) and Rai News will have live shows tonight.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 25, 2012, 01:59:38 PM
RAI International will have Milan-Juve (which I'd rather watch anyway!) so I'll have to find an Internet stream. Thanks!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on November 25, 2012, 02:25:25 PM
RAI International will have Milan-Juve (which I'd rather watch anyway!) so I'll have to find an Internet stream. Thanks!

I suppose main papers (Repubblica and Corriere) will cover it with live updates too


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on November 25, 2012, 02:35:00 PM
Exit poll by Piepoli for Rai News
Bersani 44 Renzi 36 Vendola 16 Puppato 3 Tabacci 1%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 25, 2012, 03:04:41 PM
Ugh. I was hoping Renzi would keep it closer. Let's hope for an exit poll error!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 25, 2012, 03:14:59 PM
Quorum Exit Poll: Bersani - 44-48%  Renzi - 31-35%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 25, 2012, 03:21:51 PM
Sh*t!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 25, 2012, 03:23:23 PM
Hey, maybe the Vendola voters will let their reformer side show next weekend and flock to Renzi...

:P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 25, 2012, 03:24:49 PM
Hey, maybe the Vendola voters will let their reformer side show next weekend and flock to Renzi...

:P

I honestly thought they would, but polls indicate otherwise.

As if Bersani was some leftist hero...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 25, 2012, 03:25:56 PM
He's an ex-Communist. Right up their alley.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on November 25, 2012, 03:27:00 PM
The page for official results...it doesn't work for me at the moment

http://www.risultati.primarieitaliabenecomune.it/


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on November 25, 2012, 04:01:39 PM
Renzi's team says it will be closer: 44 to 40%

First results from PD headquarter

Bersani: 406.043 (44.6)
Renzi 335.648 (36.9%
Vendola 131.041 (14.4%)
Puppato 26.890 (3.)
Tabacci 10783 (1.2%)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Diouf on November 25, 2012, 04:02:05 PM
Does anybody have some more information on Verso la Terza Repubblica? There's not much information on wikipedia or elsewhere, apart from them being centrist and that they want Monti to continue after the election. The party founders include Andrea Riccardi, minister of International Cooperation in Monti's government, and the Ferrari chairman  Luca Cordero di Montezemolo. I can also see that they have polled 4.8 and 8.5 in the two polls made since they started.
I guess that Monti does not need to or want to run as he is senator for life.

Would they want to go in an alliance with Casini and Fini at the election?

Their policies, pro-austerity, pro-europe and pro-higher taxes?

An electoral reform has still not been agreed on, so i guess with the current electoral system we will have a centre-left majority (PD, SEL, IdV?) in the Chamber of Deputies and a massive chaos in Senate.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 25, 2012, 04:03:31 PM
Renzi's team says it will be closer: 44 to 40%

First results from PD headquarter

Bersani: 406.043 (44.6)
Renzi 335.648 (36.9%
Vendola 131.041 (14.4%)
Puppato 26.890 (3.)
Tabacci 10783 (1.2%)

I was just watching the spokesperson. Their site still isn't working though!

Great news from Renzi's camp!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 25, 2012, 04:05:09 PM
Renzi's Facebook status:

Matteo Renzi

I dati sono davvero molto incoraggianti. Parlerò alle 23 alla Fortezza da Basso, ma fin da adesso grazie a tutti. E a chi dice che abbiamo preso i voti della destra - come hanno detto autorevoli scienzati a In Onda, qualche ora fa - date i risultati nei singoli comuni della Toscana, dell'Umbria, di parte dell'Emilia. Le zone rosse ci tirano su. Comunque avete presente i sondaggi di queste ore? Va moooolto meglio. A dopo.




Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 25, 2012, 04:09:22 PM
I really hope Renzi isn't just spinning.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on November 25, 2012, 04:35:52 PM
Paris

Vendola 348 votes Bersani 245 Renzi 200 Puppato 53 Tabacci 12


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on November 25, 2012, 04:58:21 PM
Going through the results page on PD website...so far

Piemente: neck and neck
Lombardia: Bersani ahead by 8-9%
Trentino: Bersani leading by 11%
Veneto: neck and neck
Friuli: Bersani ahead by 7%
Liguria: Bersani ahead by 13%
Emilia: Bersani ahead by 10 (but less than 50% so far in his homeregion)
Toscana: Renzi at 52% Bersani 36%
Umbria: Renzi by 2%
Marche: neck and neck
Lazio: Bersani 47 Renzi 29 Vendola 20
Abruzzo: Bersani 46 Renzi 32 Vendola 19
Molise: Bersani 42 Renzi 32 Vendola 23
Campania: Bersani 51 Renzi 25 Vendola 18
Puglia: neck and neck between Bersani and Vendola
Basilicata: landslide for Bersani
Calabria: even more than Basilicata
Sicilia: Bersany by 20 points
Sardegna: Bersani over 50%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 25, 2012, 05:03:10 PM
Those numbers look incredible for Bersani except, ironically, in his home region. I think I saw that he's winning in the North and Central America overseas vote, too.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on November 25, 2012, 05:09:58 PM
Does anybody have some more information on Verso la Terza Repubblica? There's not much information on wikipedia or elsewhere, apart from them being centrist and that they want Monti to continue after the election. The party founders include Andrea Riccardi, minister of International Cooperation in Monti's government, and the Ferrari chairman  Luca Cordero di Montezemolo. I can also see that they have polled 4.8 and 8.5 in the two polls made since they started.
I guess that Monti does not need to or want to run as he is senator for life.

Would they want to go in an alliance with Casini and Fini at the election?

Their policies, pro-austerity, pro-europe and pro-higher taxes?

An electoral reform has still not been agreed on, so i guess with the current electoral system we will have a centre-left majority (PD, SEL, IdV?) in the Chamber of Deputies and a massive chaos in Senate.

At the moment,an alliance with IdV is not possible. Di Pietro has lost any sense he had.
Also,they are polling below the 4% threshold.

As for the Verso la Terza Repubblica,I guess they'll just ally with UDC and FLI and try and get a few seats in the Parliament.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 25, 2012, 09:20:50 PM
Only 43% of the vote in. I guess they're waiting until the morning to release everything. It's still 44% to 36% in favor of Bersani. Vendola is at 15%.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Vosem on November 25, 2012, 10:58:13 PM
Read through this thread and some other articles (Hashemite's blog on the Sicily regional election and Wikipedia were both quite informative), and will probably be following this from now on; need some international stuff now that the US is taking a break. First impressions:

I always knew Italian politics was really ed up really bad, but just...wow. Amazing.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 25, 2012, 11:08:52 PM
I always knew Italian politics was really ed up really bad, but just...wow. Amazing.

It makes it that much more fun. Nothing like it on the planet.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 25, 2012, 11:10:20 PM
I always knew Italian politics was really ed up really bad, but just...wow. Amazing.

It makes it that much more fun. Nothing like it on the planet.

True that! :)

Plus, political change and recomposition is good news, considering what the past 18 years have been like.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on November 26, 2012, 04:53:12 AM
Bersani 1,383,990 votes (44.9%)
Renzi 1,103,790 (35.5%)
Vendola 485,158 (15.6%)
Puppato 80,600 (2.6%)
Tabacci 40,030 (1.4%)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on November 26, 2012, 05:46:45 AM
It seems the voters have reached more than 3 millions. What's it regarding what was expected ? Success, failure ? It is somehow very close to the turnout the Left open primaries had experienced last year here in France, and it had been characterized has somewhat of a popular success.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 26, 2012, 10:50:00 AM
Berlusconi is apparently waiting on the results of the runoff to see if he'll come back. According to Reuters, analysts think a Renzi win makes a comeback far less likely. Considering Bersani is favored to win...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 26, 2012, 11:23:12 AM
Vendola lost Puglia to Bersani by two points. Bersani only got 49% in Emilia-Romagna but hit the mid 50s in places like Calabria and Basilicata. Renzi kicked ass in Tuscany. From what I can see, that's the only region he won.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on November 26, 2012, 01:56:24 PM
Renzi also won Umbria,Marche and Valle d'Aosta.
Anyway, 3.1 million is a success,also given the fact that there was a big debate concerning the registration process,which was very complex and many people were afraid it would depress turnout.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 26, 2012, 03:17:12 PM
What are the chances Renzi wins the run-off ?

It would be good if one of the younger ones take over instead of those used corropt assholes that plague almost every Italian party.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 26, 2012, 03:35:39 PM
Renzi also won Umbria,Marche and Valle d'Aosta.
Anyway, 3.1 million is a success,also given the fact that there was a big debate concerning the registration process,which was very complex and many people were afraid it would depress turnout.

Weird. La Repubblica has Bersani winning Valle d'Aosta. I thought I checked the others earlier so I must have misread the results. Marche was very close.

What are the chances Renzi wins the run-off ?

It would be good if one of the younger ones take over instead of those used corropt assholes that plague almost every Italian party.

Unless Vendola gives a surprise endorsement, I don't see it happening.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 26, 2012, 04:49:31 PM
Sigh... I guess there's no chance of a Renzi comeback at this point. The Italian left never ceases to disappoint. :'(


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on November 26, 2012, 05:11:04 PM
Oh boy.  They pick the establishment hack.  *sigh*.  By the way, Antonio, just out of curiosity, why'd you change your icon to Republican? 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 26, 2012, 05:22:41 PM
Antonio, can you just put a disclaimer in your signature? :P

I'm surprised so many leftists here want Renzi. Maybe he isn't as centrist as the establishment says he is and/or you'd just really prefer a reformer over an ideological match.

Anyway, I read that Berlusconi might create another new center-right party by the end of this week. Think it's realistic?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on November 26, 2012, 05:34:06 PM
Results by province

http://www.primarieitaliabenecomune.it/risultati


Renzi carried Cuneo, Asti, Como, Lecco, Verona, Vicenza, Pordenone, Lucca, Pistoia, Firenze, Pisa (Livorno checked who Pisa voted for and switched to Bersani), Arezzo, Siena, Grosseto, Perugia, Pesaro, Macerata, Fermo,

Vendola carried Bari, Brindisi, Lecce

Tie in Alessandria

Everything else for Bersani

Top for candidates

Bersani: Ogliastra (73.2%) Vibo Valentia (71.8%) Messina (64.2%)
Renzi: Arezzo (62.7) Lucca (59.7) Pistoia (57.2)
Vendola: Bari (47.3) Brindisi (40.3) Lecce (38.9)
Puppato: Treviso (18.5) Belluno (11.3) Vicenza (10.2)
Tabacci:  Benevento (13.4%) Barletta Andria Trani (9%) Catanzaro (8.3%)

Bottom:

Bersani: Lucca (28.9%) Arezzo (29.9%) Bari (30.7)
Renzi: Vibo (13) Oglianstra (17) Nuoro (17)
Vendola: Arezzo (7.1) Vibo (7.4) Enna (7.6) Piacenza (7.6)
Puppato: Arezzo (3 votes) Crotone (0.3) Trapani and Foggia (0.5%)
Tabacci: Prato (0.2) Lucca, Arezzo, Firenze, Pistoia, Siena, Brindisi, Isernia (all 0.3%)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 26, 2012, 06:16:29 PM
Glad Vendola did so poorly in one of my ancestral hometowns. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on November 26, 2012, 06:41:07 PM
Renzi is NOT a centrist.
He is a center-left candidate,who supports biological testament,ius soli,civil unions and adoption for homosexual couples...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 26, 2012, 06:46:00 PM
Renzi is NOT a centrist.
He is a center-left candidate,who supports biological testament,ius soli,civil unions and adoption for homosexual couples...

"As centrist as he's being made out to be" didn't mean he's centrist overall. Just that there's more of an emphasis on the center part of the center-left label by those that dislike him. Unless I'm missing why he's having such difficulty with the left wingers of the party. I can see the establishment left wingers disliking him because he's reform minded but Vendola voters aren't against him for that reason...

I'm guessing they were all asked about gay adoption in that debate. I read though that it was actually Galan who came out as the first candidate to support gay adoption.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on November 26, 2012, 06:52:06 PM
Renzi is NOT a centrist.
He is a center-left candidate,who supports biological testament,ius soli,civil unions and adoption for homosexual couples...

"As centrist as he's being made out to be" didn't mean he's centrist overall. Just that there's more of an emphasis on the center part of the center-left label by those that dislike him. Unless I'm missing why he's having such difficulty with the left wingers of the party. I can see the establishment left wingers disliking him because he's reform minded but Vendola voters aren't against him for that reason...

I'm guessing they were all asked about gay adoption in that debate. I read though that it was actually Galan who came out as the first candidate to support gay adoption.
Yeah,he's made up to be way more centrist than he actually is,and that certainly damages him in the primaries.
That's also why I strongly doubt he has any chance in the second round.

Don't know about Galan,but anyway he dropped out of the primaries. He's too much of a decent politician to fit in there.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 26, 2012, 06:55:16 PM
Oh, wow. I guess the center-right is too much of a circus to notice when someone bows out. One of my friends is a big Galan supporter and I didn't see him post anything about it. Strange.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 26, 2012, 07:54:30 PM
Oh boy.  They pick the establishment hack.  *sigh*.  By the way, Antonio, just out of curiosity, why'd you change your icon to Republican? 

It has to do with another leadership election, on the French right, in order to testify my solidarity with the other poster who uses to wear this avatar. ;) You can't imagine how painful it is for me to have a blue avatar, but it feels like a moral duty. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on November 27, 2012, 02:54:19 AM
Anyway, I don't see why suddenly the PD should be a leftist stronghold. When Veltroni and co transformed what existed into a new PD party, he emphasized on the fact that this would be a centre party, with centre and centre-left components, and that it would not group with other social-democrats in the European Parliament. By doing that, he killed what was left of the Italian left, which was once maybe the most powerful of the Occident world.

Since then, of course, the other social-democrats have also moved further to their right, and have ended forming a European Parliament group of socialists and democrats where the Italian PD has returned. But to see that now someone as Renzi would be looked down on because he's not enough of a leftist, whereas this party is not supposed to be left-wing in its own foundations, seems a bit odd to me. Of course it doesn't seem odd, I see what's going on, I'm just saying.

I think I might just endorse Renzi for the 2d round seeing what is said here.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 27, 2012, 02:59:08 AM
Anyway, I don't see why suddenly the PD should be a leftist stronghold. When Veltroni and co transformed what existed into a new PD party, he emphasized on the fact that this would be a centre party, with centre and centre-left components, and that it would not group with other social-democrats in the European Parliament. By doing that, he killed what was left of the Italian left, which was once maybe the most powerful of the Occident world.

Since then, of course, the other social-democrats have also moved further to their right, and have ended forming a European Parliament group of socialists and democrats where the Italian PD has returned. But to see that now someone as Renzi would be looked down on because he's not enough of a leftist, whereas this party is not supposed to be left-wing in its own foundations, seems a bit odd to me. Of course it doesn't seem odd, I see what's going on, I'm just saying.

I think I might just endorse Renzi for the 2d round seeing what is said here.

Yeah, there's really no possible reason to endorse Bersani.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on November 27, 2012, 03:57:35 PM
I have no problem with Bersani as a person,and very few people do actually.
What I and many others don't like is those who back him,and who inevitably influence his program and the eventual cabinet.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on November 27, 2012, 08:05:29 PM
Renzi is NOT a centrist.
He is a center-left candidate,who supports biological testament,ius soli,civil unions and adoption for homosexual couples...

Your standard liberals support those.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2012, 10:41:41 PM
RCM: That sounds like Renzi is more socially liberal than Bersani but more economically moderate, unless I misread your post.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 27, 2012, 10:59:19 PM
The PD as a whole is, at best, Third Wayish, at worst shamelessly neoliberal. Bersani and Renzi aren't really different in that regard.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on November 28, 2012, 08:13:39 AM
Have we already mentioned that tonight (21:15) on Rai 1 there will be a Bersani-Renzi debate?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 28, 2012, 08:34:11 AM
Have we already mentioned that tonight (21:15) on Rai 1 there will be a Bersani-Renzi debate?

I didn't know they were going to squeeze one in with only a week of campaigning. Awesome.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on November 28, 2012, 10:15:03 AM
RCM: That sounds like Renzi is more socially liberal than Bersani but more economically moderate, unless I misread your post.

Yes.

Even though one of the main problems in this sense is that Bersani's economic views are not that clear.
For example,he was the Minister who made plenty of liberalizations back in 2007,and he said he would do so again if he became PM.
So yes,he has a more leftist background overall,but apart from saying that he would modify the labour reform and the famous Article 18,not much else is clear.

At least Renzi has clearly stated that he would support public dismissals in order to reduce the debt.


Antonio V,how exactly is PD "shamelessly neoliberal"?!?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 28, 2012, 10:22:06 AM
Now Renzi apparently wants to change the rules- allow people who didn't vote in the first round to vote in the runoff. LOL.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 28, 2012, 10:49:00 AM
Wait, what? I asked a PD activist friend of mine if turnout will be higher in the second round. He said it would be. How the hell can that happen if only first round voters can vote? Unless something was lost in translation...

Anyway, what kind of ridiculous requirement is that? Renzi is sort of silly for wanting to change the rules during the game but that rule seems asinine to begin with.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on November 28, 2012, 10:52:43 AM
The official rules are : people can vote but only if they have a valid justification for not voting last Sunday,ie they need to bring a plane ticket.

...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 28, 2012, 11:04:09 AM
...

Do you think that's reasonable? :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on November 28, 2012, 12:19:03 PM
Not really,but on the other side primaries are an extremely new concept for Italian politics.
The first ones were in 2005 and were more of a plebiscite for Prodi;afterwards we had a few,but they were never really close at a national level,so I understand that the rules still need some work.
After all,in the US you've been doing them for decades and there is still so much talk about caucuses,open/closed primaries and so on.

So yeah,the "justification" part is silly,but on the other hand I wouldn't want Renzi to win thanks to hundreds of thousands of people who didn't vote in the first round but suddenly became interested in the runoff.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on November 28, 2012, 12:25:36 PM
Yeah, these sort of regulations are always idiotic, but nothing beats Argentina, where you can't vote in the General Election if you didn't also vote in the (pretty meaningless) primaries.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 28, 2012, 12:31:30 PM
I've been told the whole "pay for participate" thing is to keep center-right voters from voting in the center-left primary. Is there not party registration for the public or is that typically reserved for the politicos? If the former, why not just conduct it like our "closed primary" system but specify which parties can participate (since it isn't just PD)?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 28, 2012, 12:40:35 PM
Isn't the registration fee only 2 Euros?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Kitteh on November 28, 2012, 12:47:43 PM
Isn't the registration fee only 2 Euros?

It was €1 in the PS primaries last year.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on November 28, 2012, 12:48:22 PM
I've been told the whole "pay for participate" thing is to keep center-right voters from voting in the center-left primary. Is there not party registration for the public or is that typically reserved for the politicos? If the former, why not just conduct it like our "closed primary" system but specify which parties can participate (since it isn't just PD)?

The 2 euros are just for financing the primaries+the GE campaign...

Anway,registration to parties here is not nearly as big a "thing" as it is in the US.
Only REALLY passionate people register,so it would have been pretty pointless to have a closed primary.
Bersani would have probably won comfortably in that case.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 28, 2012, 03:08:35 PM
La Stampa has an online poll going on: who will you vote for on Sunday? Over six thousand votes have been cast. Bersani is up by two...votes. :P  Surprise in the making? ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 28, 2012, 03:18:45 PM
If Renzi can coalesce most of the non-Bersani vote. *Crosses fingers* We'll see what happens at tonight's debate.

Has there been any runoff polling?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 28, 2012, 03:22:24 PM
I haven't seen any polling. I'm sure there will be a few polls released tomorrow and Friday. I find it odd that I haven't seen any polling. I thought there might be a ban so close to the vote (like in the General) but since the primary is run by the party, that wouldn't be able to be enforced.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 28, 2012, 03:42:37 PM
Bersani's the incumbent but Renzi's voters might be more enthusiastic... who knows. I'd be surprised if Bersani lost though.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on November 28, 2012, 03:51:43 PM
Polls are about 60-40% for Bersani.

Anyway the debate is up and running,Bersani doing much better IMO.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 28, 2012, 03:52:34 PM
Renzi loves this casual appearance: no suit jacket.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 28, 2012, 04:03:14 PM
So you can't vote on the runoff if you haven't on the first round? This is so ridiculous.

I know I should lose all hope at this point, but, you never know... I'll pray for an upset.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on November 28, 2012, 04:52:01 PM
Renzi as usual brought up interesting themes,especially concerning the past error of the center-left,but overall Bersani seems way more knowledgeable,especially on the economy and on the foreign policy.

I'll vote for Renzi,knowing that he'll probably lose, and hoping that my vote can contribute to changing the background of PD.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 28, 2012, 05:30:47 PM
Did I read correctly that Renzi promised a middle class tax cut that Bersani couldn't commit to?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 29, 2012, 10:44:03 AM
Renzi won the post-debate snap poll, but got dinged for a last-minute ad campaign in the national papers. Apparently violates the rules.

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/24741/Centre-left-primary-candidates-slam-Renzi--violations-.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 29, 2012, 11:01:57 AM
Good news about the poll. What are the punishments for campaigning in the newspapers? This should be interesting since it's strictly a party affair. Will it just be a fine and who gets paid the fine since this isn't strictly a PD primary? Is there some independent organization set up to run everything?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 29, 2012, 11:47:13 AM
No idea. Maybe one of our resident Italians can answer.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 29, 2012, 02:01:48 PM
Alfano and Berlusconi will meet next week. From Facebook:



Angelino Alfano

Ho sentito il presidente Silvio Berlusconi e abbiamo concordato di convocare, la prossima settimana, l'Ufficio di Presidenza per assumere le decisioni riguardo le primarie e l'assetto migliore da presentare nella prossima campagna elettorale


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on November 29, 2012, 03:40:41 PM
No idea. Maybe one of our resident Italians can answer.
I can't.
Nobody really cares about who receives the money,in all truth.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 30, 2012, 12:11:20 AM
Apparently the ads are a BFD... are these calls for Renzi to be disqualified and thrown off the ballot?

http://www.liberoquotidiano.it/news/1133738/Primarie-Reggi-tutti-contro-Renzi-potrebbe-essere-espulso.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 30, 2012, 12:17:29 AM
What exactly in the ads was misleading? From what I've read, Renzi insists whatever was said was legal and within the rules of the primary so I don't see how disqualification is possible.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 30, 2012, 12:50:32 AM
I doubt they throw him off 48 hours before the vote- among other things, ballots have probably already been printed. Plus it would cause a huge sh**tstorm.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on November 30, 2012, 02:29:14 AM
The ads just informed on how to register if someone couldn't vote last Sunday. They didn't say "Paid for by Renzi" or "Vote Renzi!" anywhere,
Everything is being blown up out of proportion.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 30, 2012, 02:52:59 AM
His problem: can't expand the electorate, plus it sounds like his rivals are coalescing in an ABR movement. Result, the establishment hack, as Peter rightfully calls Bersani, will probably win.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-30/italy-s-renzi-faces-primary-defeat-at-hands-of-union-favorite.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 30, 2012, 08:49:28 AM
This newspaper "scandal" is probably being blown out of proportion to keep Bersani's troops energized/not think about sitting out the runoff. Pathetic.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 01, 2012, 06:01:40 PM
What are we thinking for tomorrow? I'll say...

Bersani - 58%
Renzi - 42%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on December 01, 2012, 06:56:00 PM
the establishment hack, as Peter rightfully calls Bersani
Well, I suppose one could say he's a bit of a duller version of Adlai Stevenson.  Not a bad guy, but he's being propped up by a bunch of corrupt bastards who don't want Kefauver-esque mavericks like Renzi and Vendola pushing them out of power and exposing their corruption. 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 01, 2012, 07:50:50 PM
At any rate, looks like Bersani will win and become Italy's next PM. Berlusconi might run if Bersani wins but I doubt SB can win... the old man has too much self-inflicted damage. IMO a reformist centre-leftist, ideally Renzi, most likely Bersani, would be much better to right (pun intended) the good ship SS Italian Economy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 01, 2012, 10:36:01 PM
Yeah, Bersani will probably win. Shame, I watched the debate and Renzi was clearly the one making the most important points (how the left can't keep making the same mistakes, how "grand coalitions" with centrists suck, etc.). He's got the right ideas regarding strategy, and injects some novelty in the Italian political scene, which it urgently needs it. With Bersani, it's easy to see how the left will end up embodying "the old politics" in 2013.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 01, 2012, 11:08:46 PM
So has Bersani refused to join a coalition with Casini? I saw Renzi making it a point. Sort of ironic that the candidate favored by the Left might join with the UdC but, then again, we know why so it isn't actually surprising.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 01, 2012, 11:14:02 PM
So has Bersani refused to join a coalition with Casini? I saw Renzi making it a point. Sort of ironic that the candidate favored by the Left might join with the UdC but, then again, we know why so it isn't actually surprising.

Yeah, this just shows how deluded those who make it a left/right fight are.

If we actually end up in a coalition with Casini, it'll be time to shoot myself.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on December 02, 2012, 03:09:02 AM
Voted for Renzi again,in the end...

I am expecting something like 55-45 Bersani.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 02, 2012, 07:26:57 AM
Vendola and Puppato voted Bersani. No surprises.

I want to see what was written in the 10% "justifications" for having missed the first round that they accepted.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on December 02, 2012, 08:24:22 AM
My prediction: Renzi to win 52-48.

When are the results coming in ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on December 02, 2012, 08:37:37 AM
My prediction: Renzi to win 52-48.

When are the results coming in ?
Lol.

Polls close at 8PM,from 9PM the results will start coming in.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 02, 2012, 09:38:31 AM
Oh, Tender.

I'd love to see it be a ten point race. At least make it interesting to follow early on.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 02, 2012, 02:28:34 PM
Exit poll giving the win to Bersani with 61%.

Turnout down compared to last Sunday.

Tabacci voted for Bersani. Unsurprisingly, old DC votes for the most traditionalist candidate.




Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 02, 2012, 02:39:07 PM
3552 polling places out of 9219

Bersani 394,832 (61.11%)
Renzi 251,248 (38.89%)

Renzi ahead only in Tuscany so far.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 02, 2012, 02:55:23 PM
SHIIT


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 02, 2012, 03:04:27 PM
"Berlusconi returns?" talk will be at a fever pitch all week...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 02, 2012, 03:10:21 PM
Seriously, what is it that makes Italian leftists so stupid?!?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: DC Al Fine on December 02, 2012, 03:14:27 PM
Seriously, what is it that makes Italian leftists so stupid?!?

Cheap wine & loose women... no wait, that's Berlusconi


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 02, 2012, 03:30:54 PM
Renzi conceding.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 02, 2012, 03:30:55 PM
Renzi has apparently conceded. Bersani will be the next PM.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 02, 2012, 03:40:44 PM

Paris:  Bersani 438 votes; Renzi 246.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 02, 2012, 03:45:18 PM

Hey, they can screw it up... ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 02, 2012, 03:53:15 PM
True, but rather unlikely unless PD thoroughly self-nukes and Berlusconi runs a pitch-perfect campaign.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on December 02, 2012, 04:57:33 PM
Seriously, what is it that makes Italian leftists so stupid?!?
Enough.



61-39 Bersani in the end.
Wider margin than expected but there weren't really any chances for Renzi.

Great speech by Renzi,really good for the unity of the party.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 02, 2012, 06:36:44 PM
So, Bersani for PM!!!
I'd have probably voted for Renzi if I were Italian... But I like Bersani, too. He's a statesman, a serious politician, and a honest politician (something Italy really needs).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 02, 2012, 06:42:22 PM
So far, Renzi won Cuneo, Arezzo, Firenze, Lucca, Pistoia, Prato, Siena
Too close to call: Grosseto, Perugia, Fermo
Every other area to Bersani


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Kitteh on December 02, 2012, 10:27:03 PM
Seriously, what is it that makes Italian leftists so stupid?!?

No insult to you, Antonio, but if Italian leftists are stupid then so are (center-)leftists in most of Western Europe. Milliband, Steinbrück and Hollande don't exactly seem like the the best leaders. Guess we can now add Bersani to that list. It's pretty depressing, actually.

(Feel free to correct me about anything here if I'm being an ignorant foreigner)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on December 03, 2012, 03:32:18 AM
True, but rather unlikely unless PD thoroughly self-nukes and Berlusconi runs a pitch-perfect campaign.

Luckily there's not only Berlusconi. We have to see if Bersani's coalition reach a certain percentage, expecially at the Senate.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 03, 2012, 08:10:27 AM
Renzi comes across as a vacuous windbag, so this is good news.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on December 03, 2012, 08:12:34 AM
My prediction: Renzi to win 52-48.

When are the results coming in ?

Hmm, I thought he could pull an upset.

Probably I didn't follow the primary enough ...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 03, 2012, 08:39:29 AM
My prediction: Renzi to win 52-48.

When are the results coming in ?

Hmm, I thought he could pull an upset.

Probably I didn't follow the primary enough ...

"It isn't over yet..."

;)

True, but rather unlikely unless PD thoroughly self-nukes and Berlusconi runs a pitch-perfect campaign.

Luckily there's not only Berlusconi. We have to see if Bersani's coalition reach a certain percentage, expecially at the Senate.

...what are you expecting them to get that we still "have to see" about the certain percentage?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 03, 2012, 03:44:58 PM
My prediction: Renzi to win 52-48.

When are the results coming in ?

Hmm, I thought he could pull an upset.

Probably I didn't follow the primary enough ...

"It isn't over yet..."

;)

Sarkozy will be reelected anyone? ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 03, 2012, 04:32:03 PM
My prediction: Renzi to win 52-48.

When are the results coming in ?

Hmm, I thought he could pull an upset.

Probably I didn't follow the primary enough ...

"It isn't over yet..."

;)

Sarkozy will be reelected anyone? ;)

Hey, that wasn't the craziest prediction given the result. My horrible prediction with Santorum has been matched by Tender's. Game over. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on December 04, 2012, 03:06:38 AM
True, but rather unlikely unless PD thoroughly self-nukes and Berlusconi runs a pitch-perfect campaign.

Luckily there's not only Berlusconi. We have to see if Bersani's coalition reach a certain percentage, expecially at the Senate.

Luckily,any center-right alternative to berlusconi is just as bad.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 04, 2012, 11:24:17 AM
do we have final figures? I wanted to check difference between Bersani's and Renzi's totals compared to first round but it seems PD is not updating anymore as few hundreds polling stations are always missing


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 06, 2012, 07:34:09 AM
Senate PdL members walked out of a confidence vote earlier today. Might be seeing early elections...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 06, 2012, 09:54:07 AM
Seems like Meloni is at war with Berlusconi over his possible candidacy. This is fun. :)

Good for her even though part of me still wonders: is thi part of an act? Does Silvio's crew have her doing this on purpose so they can control the Anti Berlusconi voices within the party? She was one of his female leaders...

Maybe the Italians here know if she had a genuine, public falling out with Berlusconi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 06, 2012, 04:08:08 PM
I can't believe the PdL could fall even lower. These guys are literally betting against Italy. They all deserve to burn in a fire.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on December 06, 2012, 04:22:20 PM
Nobody knows or cares about Meloni,really.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 06, 2012, 04:39:17 PM
Alfano: Berlusconi is a candidate.

Oh, man...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 06, 2012, 05:05:10 PM
Alfano: Berlusconi is a candidate.

Oh, man...

And I'm pretty sure he's behind the PdL's latest shenanigans.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 06, 2012, 05:23:36 PM
Wouldn't this at least bring a lot of those PdL converts to M5S back to PdL? I mean, the argument was always that they didn't care about the PdL without Berlusconi so if he's back, wouldn't that please them?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 06, 2012, 06:27:50 PM
Wouldn't this at least bring a lot of those PdL converts to M5S back to PdL? I mean, the argument was always that they didn't care about the PdL without Berlusconi so if he's back, wouldn't that please them?

Never heard that, honestly. What I've heard is more in the line of they're sick and tired of the PdL in general and of Berlusconi in particular. I could be wrong, of course.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 07, 2012, 12:02:12 PM
I'm hearing from a fairly well placed source that former AN members (Meloni, La Russa, Gasparri...basically the people I am familiar with/I like) will probably form a new party but will join a coalition with Berlusconi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on December 07, 2012, 03:48:07 PM
Alfano: Berlusconi is a candidate.

Oh, man...

Jesus Inksing Christ.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 07, 2012, 09:10:08 PM
And the worse is that the PdL just withdrew confidence to Monti, which means he'll keep on as a caretaker until the next election.

The PdL's new strategy seems to be sinking Italy so that they can put the blame on Monti and play on a hypothetical nostalgia of the "good old" Berlusconi days. Each time I think they've done the worst they could, they manage to hit a new low. Seriously, these guys all ought to be purged.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 08, 2012, 11:29:24 AM
I'm so sorry, Italy:

http://www.corriere.it/politica/12_dicembre_08/monti-quirinale-fini-dinosauro-berlusconi_62fea7d2-4122-11e2-b1cb-f72c456506f7.shtml


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 08, 2012, 11:48:09 AM
For those of us who can't read Italian? It sounds like Monti told Napolitano his government no longer enjoys parliamentary confidence.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 08, 2012, 02:33:26 PM
While all this is going on and a snap election seems possible, it looks like voting will take place on March 10th. I've seen the Italian press using "Election Day" a lot. Does the new electoral law limit voting to one day?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 08, 2012, 09:06:42 PM
Monti resigning. Snap election?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 08, 2012, 09:09:21 PM
I will consider this election a personal defeat if the PdL gets over 15%. Of course, these POS do not deserve to be over 1%, but I'm cutting some slack to the voters considering their fundamental stupidity.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: DC Al Fine on December 08, 2012, 10:53:09 PM

They see him trollin, they hatin


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 08, 2012, 10:57:19 PM

He's not trolling, I feel like he's dead-serious. That's the saddest thing of all.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on December 09, 2012, 04:36:47 AM
Monti will resign as soon as the Stability Law passes.
He said that he does not want to rule for 3 months with a fake majority...which was what Berlusconi wanted him to do.

Basically,Monti just gave Berlusconi the finger. Berlusconi hoped to appear as the anti-Monti and anti-Euro candidate (criticizing Europe,Euro,austerity and proposing tax cuts...) while at the same time not having any no-confidence,so as to appear "responsible".
Resigning immediately instead of staying in power for 3 more months without the possibility of doing anything,Monti just did a great thing. He's a true statesman,while Berlusconi...it just seems ludicrous to discuss about elections when such human trash is around.

This is not politics,it's a war of ethics and culture.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 09, 2012, 09:37:05 AM
But if Monti doesn't want to rule with a fake majority for three months and gave Silvio the finger by bailing, denying Silvio the opportunity to campaign against him/the status quo, how will the election be in March? Will someone else be appointed to lead the government but essentially do nothing?

I understand Monti not leaving until a budget is passed but couldn't that take some time? If someone isn't appointed Prime Minister, doesn't that mean elections would have to be moved?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on December 09, 2012, 09:45:36 AM
The election would have been in april anyways. April, march, february, does it really matter?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 09, 2012, 09:58:49 AM
The election would have been in april anyways. April, march, february, does it really matter?

I guess it's a compromise: PD wants it in February (give less time for a PdL comeback) while PdL would benefit from an April vote.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 09, 2012, 03:49:23 PM
Monti will resign as soon as the Stability Law passes.
He said that he does not want to rule for 3 months with a fake majority...which was what Berlusconi wanted him to do.

Basically,Monti just gave Berlusconi the finger. Berlusconi hoped to appear as the anti-Monti and anti-Euro candidate (criticizing Europe,Euro,austerity and proposing tax cuts...) while at the same time not having any no-confidence,so as to appear "responsible".
Resigning immediately instead of staying in power for 3 more months without the possibility of doing anything,Monti just did a great thing. He's a true statesman,while Berlusconi...it just seems ludicrous to discuss about elections when such human trash is around.

This is not politics,it's a war of ethics and culture.
^^^^


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Kitteh on December 09, 2012, 05:08:34 PM
Monti will resign as soon as the Stability Law passes.
He said that he does not want to rule for 3 months with a fake majority...which was what Berlusconi wanted him to do.

Basically,Monti just gave Berlusconi the finger. Berlusconi hoped to appear as the anti-Monti and anti-Euro candidate (criticizing Europe,Euro,austerity and proposing tax cuts...) while at the same time not having any no-confidence,so as to appear "responsible".
Resigning immediately instead of staying in power for 3 more months without the possibility of doing anything,Monti just did a great thing. He's a true statesman,while Berlusconi...it just seems ludicrous to discuss about elections when such human trash is around.

This is not politics,it's a war of ethics and culture.
^^^^
This. I don't agree with many of Monti's policies but I can respect him as a good person who is trying to do the right thing. Berlusconi, on the other hand...piece of s--t is too kind a term.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 09, 2012, 05:09:59 PM
I've been pro-SB for years, now firmly opposed to him because he wants cheap populism rather than economic reform. Therefore I'm supporting PD this time.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on December 09, 2012, 06:58:32 PM
I've been pro-SB for years, now firmly opposed to him because he wants cheap populism rather than economic reform. Therefore I'm supporting PD this time.

Welcome to the side of the righteous.

Silvio Berlusconi used to be funny. [EXPUNGED], 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2008 were all to greater or lesser extents normal elections between parties of varying policies and levels of corruption like countries normally have. 2013 is going to be, as Antonio said, a matter of near-spiritual import for the Italian Republic.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 09, 2012, 08:37:01 PM
Delete 1994 from that list.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 09, 2012, 08:37:54 PM

Yeah, the word "normal" certainly doesn't apply to that one. ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on December 09, 2012, 08:54:44 PM

You're entirely correct.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on December 10, 2012, 06:52:40 AM
I've been pro-SB for years, now firmly opposed to him because he wants cheap populism rather than economic reform. Therefore I'm supporting PD this time.

Fortunately unlike some countries where voters are unnaturally forced to choose just between 2 parties, we have plenty of alternatives between Berlusconi's populism, and Bersani old style  trade union-led socialdemocracy. For example it's more likely Monti will candidate somehow, and in any case there are liberal parties with  programmes alternative to BErsani and Berlusconi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 10, 2012, 10:53:35 AM
That only makes the vote personally less painful, Iannis. At the end of the day, though, those parties are going to join one of the coalitions so you're still deciding between Bersani and Berlusconi. And let's be realistic: Monti isn't getting enough support to keep one of the other two out of power.


Title: Italy to vote in February?
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 10, 2012, 12:50:36 PM
It looks like the election is now slated for February 17th or 24th.


Title: Re: Italy to vote in February?
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on December 10, 2012, 01:56:39 PM
It looks like the election is now slated for February 17th or 24th.

Good.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: YL on December 10, 2012, 02:02:10 PM
Hopefully Berlusconi finally gets the thrashing he so richly deserves, and retires for good.


Title: Re: Italy to vote in February?
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 10, 2012, 03:08:10 PM

Yeah, the sooner the better.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 10, 2012, 05:07:27 PM
My worry is that Berlusconi teams up with the Northern League and works out a confidence deal with M5S, and by running a lowest-common-denominator campaign he picks up enough floating voters to eke out a win. Fortunately he probably doesn't have enough time to do that. He's called Monti Merkel's servant and his papers are going full Greek with her in Nazi garb and plenty of 4th Reich headlines. The slogan might well be Whitlam '75: "maintain your rage", given how unpopular Monti's policies are.


Oh, and apparently he tried to *induce* Renzi into defecting his way. Renzi sent him an open letter basically saying "Piss off, as I've told twice in person, I'm not for sale." Good on him. :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on December 10, 2012, 05:52:43 PM
Rage maintenance was Whitlam '75. We can but hope this goes as well for Berlusconi as that went for (the morally and politically night-and-day superior) Gough.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 10, 2012, 06:00:54 PM
Yeah, the Renzi response was funny. It would have been more fun if he took him up on the offer though. :)

I'm actually in the awkward position of not caring for the big guy but will be helping a PdL candidate or two (unless they join this new AN party that's supposedly starting. One is far more likely than the other to join but it really doesn't matter since that party will join PdL in the coalition). It will be a very interesting election in more ways than one.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 10, 2012, 06:01:50 PM
Hopefully Berlusconi gets battered as badly as the (rebranded) DC's in 1994.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 10, 2012, 06:11:51 PM
Hopefully Berlusconi gets battered as badly as the (rebranded) DC's in 1994.

That just can't happen. The support for M5S will surely come down soon enough and I'm willing to bet that Berlusconi's ratings are better than Monti's after the past year. I don't think that's enough for a victory but, you know...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 10, 2012, 06:24:45 PM
Berlusconi's pitch would've been perfect for PdL... if he or they had any shred of credibility left, which they don't. Right now they're actually behind M5S in certain polls.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 10, 2012, 06:31:38 PM
Berlusconi's pitch would've been perfect for PdL... if he or they had any shred of credibility left, which they don't. Right now they're actually behind M5S in certain polls.

No, I'm pretty sure they're behind them in every poll. :P

Wait until the campaign is underway. Then we'll see who is credible and who isn't. I just have a hard time believing that M5S maintains their advantage.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on December 10, 2012, 06:36:03 PM
Berlusconi's pitch would've been perfect for PdL... if he or they had any shred of credibility left, which they don't. Right now they're actually behind M5S in certain polls.

No, I'm pretty sure they're behind them in every poll. :P

Wait until the campaign is underway. Then we'll see who is credible and who isn't. I just have a hard time believing that M5S maintains their advantage.

The problem is we're discussing an event that will include both credibility and Silvio Berlusconi. If Berlusconi gains enough back from M5S to win I'll be extremely surprised (and depressed).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 10, 2012, 09:36:02 PM
Hey, he surprised before. He consistently trailed Prodi by about six points before the 2006 vote and ended up losing by only 0.1%. I know these are very different times but never say never with this guy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on December 11, 2012, 08:48:05 AM
That only makes the vote personally less painful, Iannis. At the end of the day, though, those parties are going to join one of the coalitions so you're still deciding between Bersani and Berlusconi. And let's be realistic: Monti isn't getting enough support to keep one of the other two out of power.

Oh no, centrist parties for sure will run independently alternative to both Bersani and Berlusconi in any case, the only doubt is whether Monti will candidate to premiership explicitly or not. And this would make a big big difference.
Since there is also Grillo's M5S, the race is NOT already between Bersani and BErlusconi,  so why not to have 4 strong candidates?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 11, 2012, 10:02:07 AM
It's likely that centrist parties (I take it UdC is included) won't join either coalition? I can understand M5S (I still think they'll have a significant drop in support) but I figured the others would have to align with one of the two to form a government.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 11, 2012, 10:15:55 AM
...or is the system where the party with a plurality of the vote gets ~54% of the seats going to remain in place?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on December 12, 2012, 04:50:13 AM
...or is the system where the party with a plurality of the vote gets ~54% of the seats going to remain in place?

This.

Berlusconi's only allies will be La Destra (The Right) and, as usual, the Lega Nord (Northern League).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 12, 2012, 12:34:54 PM
Berlusconi is apparently at risk of being expelled from the EPP.

Meanwhile, it looks like PD is having a primary for MPs on December 29th and 30th.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 12, 2012, 01:11:25 PM
Latest poll

ISPO (fieldwork: 10 December)

PD 33.1%
5 Stelle 18.2%
PdL 16.3%
Lega 5.9%
SEL 5.4%
UDC 5.2%
Di Pietro 3.5%
Montezemolo 2.1%
La Destra 2%
Commies 1.9%
Fini 1.5%
Pannella-Bonino 1%


49% were don't know/won't vote


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 12, 2012, 02:55:54 PM
Was Berlusconi drunk earlier today? He said he'd back Monti if he ran as the candidate for the center-right.

And apparently LN isn't going to run with PdL with Berlusconi as the leader. Maroni said Silvio stepping aside would guarantee it though.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 12, 2012, 03:12:31 PM
Was Berlusconi drunk earlier today? He said he'd back Monti if he ran as the candidate for the center-right.

And apparently LN isn't going to run with PdL with Berlusconi as the leader. Maroni said Silvio stepping aside would guarantee it though.

So he's screwed, no pun intended. Without LN no way he surpasses PD unless M5S almost completely collapses (and I'm sure they all wouldn't go PdL even if M5S vanished tomorrow) and gets a chunk of undecideds. Though in his miracle scenario I'm fairly sure that LN would crawl back and at least give him confidence.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 12, 2012, 03:29:23 PM
Was Berlusconi drunk earlier today? He said he'd back Monti if he ran as the candidate for the center-right.

WHAT?!? ??? :o ??? Wait a minute... Eureka! Now I understand! :D

He's trying to look insane so that he's declared legally irresponsible, so that he can avoid prosecution for his trials! Everything makes sense then. ;D


Seriously though, this is utterly pathetic.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 12, 2012, 03:33:56 PM
The Movimento 5 Stelle is also in turmoil however. Grillo decided thinks of himself as the Dear Leader of the party and expelled 2 prominent members who had voiced criticism over his new leadership. Unsurprisingly, it turns out Italy's "new", "dynamic" and "vibrant" political movement is actually a little dictatorship ran by a madman who thinks he's the messiah.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 12, 2012, 03:34:41 PM
Unsurprisingly, it turns out Italy's "new", "dynamic" and "vibrant" political movement is actually a little dictatorship ran by a madman who thinks he's the messiah.

Ah, right. So he's going to win the election, then.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on December 12, 2012, 03:39:45 PM
Unsurprisingly, it turns out Italy's "new", "dynamic" and "vibrant" political movement is actually a little dictatorship ran by a madman who thinks he's the messiah.

Ah, right. So he's going to win the election, then.
Worse outcomes are possible.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 12, 2012, 03:42:53 PM
Yeah, what's the deal with Grillo? He decided that two of the candidates weren't "true" party members or something?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on December 13, 2012, 02:24:35 AM
Grillo got mad because they went on TV and released interviews.
But the M5S is just a big bluff,with Grillo as the supreme leader and the other ones being common citizens whose only job is to adore him and never ever disobey.

Anyway,just to be clear,the M5S will not make ANY alliance with ANY party.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on December 13, 2012, 05:10:40 AM
...or is the system where the party with a plurality of the vote gets ~54% of the seats going to remain in place?


Yes, but for the Senate the same system is at regional level, so a coalition (or party) can win a region and have the majority of seats and lose in another region and have the minority, so the outcome in seats of the senate can be different from the Chamber of Deputies. That's because for the Constitution the Senate must represent regional equilibriums and the seat distribution can't depend from national outcome. With this system a coalition can have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies but not necessarily in the Senate.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 13, 2012, 05:18:20 AM
The Italian Senate is a complete joke and should be abolished. That won't happen, obviously, because it would drive the Lega insane.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on December 13, 2012, 05:56:50 AM
The Italian Senate is a complete joke and should be abolished. That won't happen, obviously, because it would drive the Lega insane.

Too be fair to the Senate though, the entire voting system (and the political system over-all) is a joke in Italy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on December 13, 2012, 06:01:46 AM
There were talks of making the Senate a "Federal Senate",and thus have it work exclusively on regional issues,but then nothing happened.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 13, 2012, 08:10:37 AM
That's because for the Constitution the Senate must represent regional equilibriums and the seat distribution can't depend from national outcome. With this system a coalition can have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies but not necessarily in the Senate.

But Senate seats are still distributed proportionally based on regional population, correct?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on December 13, 2012, 08:24:43 AM
That's because for the Constitution the Senate must represent regional equilibriums and the seat distribution can't depend from national outcome. With this system a coalition can have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies but not necessarily in the Senate.

But Senate seats are still distributed proportionally based on regional population, correct?

Yes


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on December 13, 2012, 08:26:03 AM
The Italian Senate is a complete joke and should be abolished. That won't happen, obviously, because it would drive the Lega insane.

Too be fair to the Senate though, the entire voting system (and the political system over-all) is a joke in Italy.

For sure i wpuld be in favour of a proportional system like in Sweden, but compared to uninominal UK system, or also french one, italian one is a paradise of democracy


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 13, 2012, 02:16:53 PM
Unsurprisingly, it turns out Italy's "new", "dynamic" and "vibrant" political movement is actually a little dictatorship ran by a madman who thinks he's the messiah.

Ah, right. So he's going to win the election, then.
Worse outcomes are possible.

This is very true...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 13, 2012, 07:11:52 PM
So apparently, EPP leaders had a rally today and they offered their public endorsement to Monti to lead a centre-right coalition. I still have high doubts that this could be feasible in Italy's political climate, but in any case this is a major failure for Berlusconi. He doesn't even seem to be so widely supported among his party.

Also, election day will be on Feb. 17, and regional elections in Lombardia and Lazio will also be held that day.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 13, 2012, 09:20:47 PM
So apparently, EPP leaders had a rally today and they offered their public endorsement to Monti to lead a centre-right coalition. I still have high doubts that this could be feasible in Italy's political climate, but in any case this is a major failure for Berlusconi. He doesn't even seem to be so widely supported among his party.

Also, election day will be on Feb. 17, and regional elections in Lombardia and Lazio will also be held that day.

Thank God for February 17th for personal reasons. :) Those regional elections should be really tough though.

I didn't know this EPP thing was actually a rally; I thought a bunch of them just released statements bashing Silvio. This is even more embarrassing.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 13, 2012, 10:09:21 PM
So apparently, EPP leaders had a rally today and they offered their public endorsement to Monti to lead a centre-right coalition. I still have high doubts that this could be feasible in Italy's political climate, but in any case this is a major failure for Berlusconi. He doesn't even seem to be so widely supported among his party.

Also, election day will be on Feb. 17, and regional elections in Lombardia and Lazio will also be held that day.

Thank God for February 17th for personal reasons. :) Those regional elections should be really tough though.

I didn't know this EPP thing was actually a rally; I thought a bunch of them just released statements bashing Silvio. This is even more embarrassing.

From what I understand, they actually invited Monti and spent all the even praising him while shunning Berlusconi, who was also present. Epic fail doesn't even begin to describe it...

As for me, I'll be in SF by February, so this means my parents will have to cast the ballot for me. I'm really pissed off. :( Tell me guys, why couldn't you hold it in January instead? >:(


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 13, 2012, 11:57:03 PM
Is it definitely February 17th? One of my friends (a PD activist) said it "may be" that date so that led me to believe it's still between then and February 24th. I also didn't see anything on the newspaper websites stating a definitive date.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 14, 2012, 11:08:13 AM
Is it definitely February 17th? One of my friends (a PD activist) said it "may be" that date so that led me to believe it's still between then and February 24th. I also didn't see anything on the newspaper websites stating a definitive date.


Your friend is right



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 14, 2012, 12:37:36 PM
Antonio, where did you see that it's definitely February 17th? :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 14, 2012, 04:56:30 PM
Antonio, where did you see that it's definitely February 17th? :P

http://tg.la7.it/


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 14, 2012, 09:53:17 PM

That just takes me to the main page. I'll take your word that you saw it but I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere else.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 14, 2012, 10:25:35 PM

That just takes me to the main page. I'll take your word that you saw it but I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere else.

It was in Dec 13's headlines. Maybe I misinterpreted, but the anchor seemed pretty affirmative.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on December 15, 2012, 03:36:28 AM
There is no definitive date.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 17, 2012, 10:26:46 AM
Not directly related to the election but the world is a buzz with news that Silvio is now engaged to a 28 year old even though he only announced that he now has a girlfriend.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 17, 2012, 12:00:36 PM
Not directly related to the election but the world is a buzz with news that Silvio is now engaged to a 28 year old even though he only announced that he now has a girlfriend.

28? That'd be pretty old for his tastes. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 17, 2012, 02:33:10 PM
La Russa, Meloni and Crosetto have officially formed their new party, breaking from PdL.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 17, 2012, 05:01:45 PM
La Russa, Meloni and Crosetto have officially formed their new party, breaking from PdL.

but still being allied with them in the end.

PD is drawing up rules for their primary elections to choose parliamentary candidates. They hope to make them as complicated as possible with exceptions of exceptions from the rules.
The leader will choose the top of lists and he will also have a reserve of 10% of candidates he can personally choose.

MPs with more than 15 years in Parliament should not stand again unless they ask for an exception to the rule. The party national committee can grant up to 32 exceptions for long serving MPs. 10 MPs asked for it and they were successful in their aim. The 10 are

Anna Finocchiaro
Rosy Bindi
Giuseppe Lumia
Maria Pia Garavaglia
Franco Marini
Cesare Marini
Gianclaudia Bressa
Giuseppe Fioroni
Luciano Agostini
Giorgio Merlo

Big cities mayors, regional councillors and cabinet members aren't expected to run unless they are granted an exception (again).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 17, 2012, 05:26:07 PM
I know they'll still be linked with PdL but it seems like a good outlet for center-right voters that don't want to directly support PdL/Silvio but won't vote for the other parties.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 18, 2012, 03:23:02 AM
I know they'll still be linked with PdL but it seems like a good outlet for center-right voters that don't want to directly support PdL/Silvio but won't vote for the other parties.

Indeed. This is pure electoral strategy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on December 18, 2012, 10:20:24 AM
What's the chance this new centre-right party will end up with more votes than the PdL?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 18, 2012, 10:22:54 AM
What's the chance this new centre-right party will end up with more votes than the PdL?

When it comes to Italy, "anything can happen" is always the best answer. Wouldn't bet on this though: what's left of the PDL is probably made of hardcore berlusconists.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 18, 2012, 11:28:58 AM
The new AN (supposedly going to be called Centrodestra Nazionale though La Russa said that's not necessarily the case) might be able to win back the center-right voters that fled to M5S...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 18, 2012, 12:48:06 PM
The new AN (supposedly going to be called Centrodestra Nazionale though La Russa said that's not necessarily the case) might be able to win back the center-right voters that fled to M5S...

For the reason mentioned above, it certainly can happen. I'm willing to believe that people will see through this little scheme, though (wishful thinking, I know...).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on December 18, 2012, 06:18:00 PM
These new center-right "parties" will get nothing more than 1-2% each.
They are pathetic pantomimes,pretending to break away from PdL but still being allies.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on December 18, 2012, 08:04:50 PM
()

La Russa might have the strangest apperance of any politician I have ever seen.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 18, 2012, 11:16:53 PM
()

La Russa might have the strangest apperance of any politician I have ever seen.

You should see him when he laughs. He looks and sounds devilish. I get a kick out of him.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 19, 2012, 03:31:59 AM
Yeah, my parents always say he looks like a devil. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 19, 2012, 09:19:36 AM
This guy can't stay consistent for his life - http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/12/18/berlusconi-says-his-country-needs-him-and-will-show-that-in-forthcoming/ (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/12/18/berlusconi-says-his-country-needs-him-and-will-show-that-in-forthcoming/)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 19, 2012, 04:56:15 PM
IPSOS poll for Ballarò (last night's programme)

PD 36.3%
PDL 18%
Grillo 13.8%
SEL 5.8%
UDC 5.6%
Lega 4.6%
Italia Futura (Montezemolo) 3.2%
La Destra 2.2%
Commies 1.9%
Di Pietro 1.9%
Fini 1.8%
Pannella/Bonino/Radicals 1.2%
Fermare il declino 1.1%


IPR for TG3 (Monday)

PD 33%
Grillo 16.5%
PDL 16%
Sel 5.5%
Lega 5.5%
UDC 4.5%
Commies/Greens 2.5%
Fini 2.5%
La Destra 2.0%
Di Pietro 2%
Pannela/Bonino 2%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 19, 2012, 05:16:37 PM
Election will be February 24th. :(

As for the polls, looks like PdL is slowly rebounding but that PD lead is huge.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 20, 2012, 01:30:08 PM
Meloni and Crosetto officially leave PdL. The new center-right party is Fratelli d'Italia. How original.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: hawkeye59 on December 20, 2012, 05:08:43 PM
Meloni and Crosetto officially leave PdL. The new center-right party is Fratelli d'Italia. How original.
Yes, if you want to pick a party name that will be vague enough, just pick lyrics out of the national anthem!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on December 20, 2012, 07:11:03 PM
Meloni and Crosetto officially leave PdL. The new center-right party is Fratelli d'Italia. How original.
Yes, if you want to pick a party name that will be vague enough, just pick lyrics out of the national anthem!

I'd vote for the Star Spangled Party. Probably not for the God Save Party though, they sound to fringy and Christian.


Title: Monti officially resigns.
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 21, 2012, 01:52:57 PM
Monti has officially resigned but will head the "caretaker" government until the election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 21, 2012, 05:41:27 PM
And he'll announce on Sunday if he runs or not.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 21, 2012, 06:13:55 PM

And Silvio remarked that Monti running would be dangerous or something bizarre and I don't think it was just that him running would tactically dangerous (which is another point he made. It would split the "moderate" vote).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 22, 2012, 08:11:33 AM

And Silvio remarked that Monti running would be dangerous or something bizarre and I don't think it was just that him running would tactically dangerous (which is another point he made. It would split the "moderate" vote).

The use of the word "moderate" in the context of Italian politics is utterly ridiculous, so please don't import it there. :P

Anyways, nobody wants Monti to run apart from Casini, Montezemolo and the other nobodies, who dreamed about having him as "their" candidate. Honestly, I have no idea why Monti would even want to run. There has been a dozen of polls made about a hypothetical "Monti list" and it always came third at best. He would achieve nothing and lose his "bipartisan appeal" (or what's left of it).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on December 22, 2012, 08:37:28 AM
These people need to learn a history lesson. Fratelli d'Italia is a leftwing song, rammed down the right's throat as a national anthem in 1947.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 22, 2012, 04:25:41 PM
SEL is holding primary elections for their parliamentary candidates too. They decided to follow PD method including a quota of candidates decided by the national party to be placed on top spots. They released their list today. It includes 23 names (I guess it's basically 1/3 of the seats they will get). The Green names are some old faces from the past (Francescato, De Petris, Frassoni).

On PD front, the deadline for candidates expired last night. Today and tomorrow provincial executives are officially approving the lists to submit to members/suppoters vote.
However, we still don't know who will be in Bersani's "national quota" of candidates (these candidates will skip primaries). We will probably discover them along with final candidates list.

Regarding their primary elections, they will be held at provincial level. They have decided how many candidates each province is entitled. However, they haven't told the spots the various provincial winners will get in the circonscriptions/regions lists.

Rosy Bindi has been dumped on Reggio Calabria, Fioroni on Messina, Finocchiaro on Taranto.....I don't know who will have to vote for Franco Marini, I suppose Abruzzo.

It looks like there are lots of candidates and competition in Sicily and Campania....


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 23, 2012, 06:47:49 AM
Monti won't run. But he says he's "available" to take up any responsibility if asked by the Parliament., he can support anyone who would back his agenda (based on Reform and Europe).
He criticizes Berlusconi and CGIL (left wing trade union).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 23, 2012, 08:38:52 AM
I'm seeing that he refused to lead a center-right coalition because of Berlusconi's antics but that he still left the door open to run his own centrist slate. Is that the case or did he totally rule out running?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 23, 2012, 09:04:08 AM
I'm seeing that he refused to lead a center-right coalition because of Berlusconi's antics but that he still left the door open to run his own centrist slate. Is that the case or did he totally rule out running?

Technically speaking, I think he can't officially run because he's already a Life Senator. But he's open to become PM again if asked by political parties who would back his agenda.

So basically a "No, but maybe yes" speech. UDC & co can now say "yes, we agree on everything you propose".....so I guess you are right, he can easily lead them now. I wrote too soon.

How does the Calderoli's electoral law work? Do the PM indicated candidate need to be up for parliament too or is it not necessary?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 23, 2012, 11:07:09 AM
I remember there being debate over whether or not he could run because he's a life Senator and Napolitano even weighed in but there must have been some loophole when you consider the saavy backers he had, trying to get him to run.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on December 23, 2012, 11:39:11 AM
The current polls:

30-35% PD
13-20% M5S
15-20% PdL


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 23, 2012, 02:27:19 PM
Mont made the smart decision. By running on his own, he would have ruined his "super partes" status and would have ended up as a humiliating third/fourth.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 23, 2012, 02:28:37 PM
Hopefully he runs for President or at least stays on in some ministerial capacity.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 23, 2012, 02:34:32 PM
I'm pretty sure that if the left wins they'll be more than happy to give him the Quirinale. Monti has a pretty good profile for an Italian President.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 23, 2012, 02:57:53 PM
5 MPs leave PD to follow Monti. The most prominent of them being Ichino. The other 4 are Benedetto Adragna (Sicily), Lucio D'Ubaldo (Lazio), Flavio Pertoldi (Friuli), Giampaolo Fogliardi (Veneto).

The 23 SEL candidates indicated by their national executive: Titti Di Salvo,  Francesco Ferrara, Sergio Boccadutri, Nicola Fratoianni, Massimiliano  Smeriglio, Gennaro Migliore, Claudio Fava, Monica Cerutti, Loredana De Petris, Grazia Francescato, Maria Luisa Boccia (they are all party executive members)
Roberto Natale (RAI journalist; Journalists Federation chairman), Laura Boldrini (Spokesperson of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees), Giorgio Airaudo  (FIOM Trade Unionist), Giulio Marcon (spokeperson of a network working on globalisation, peace, human rights, environment, fair trade, ethical finance), Giulio Volpe (University of Foggia chancellor), Pape Diaw (spokeperson of Senegalese Community), Ida Dominjanni (Journalist, from Manifesto), Monica Frassoni  (former Green MEP), Giovanni Baruzzino (FIAT worker who is currently having a legal battle with them), Francesco Forgione (former MP, former chairman of Antimafia select committee), Celeste Costantino (feminist campaigner).

Various former MPs: Di Salvo (DS), Francescato (Green), De Petris (Green), Migliore (Communist Refoundation, PRC), Forgione (PRC), Ferrara (PRC), Boccia (PRC), Fava (DS), Massimiliano Smeriglio (PRC).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 23, 2012, 05:40:29 PM
I'm pretty sure that if the left wins they'll be more than happy to give him the Quirinale. Monti has a pretty good profile for an Italian President.

Considering the monopoly the left seems to have on the Presidency, I'd imagine the right would be satisfied, too.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: doktorb on December 23, 2012, 10:21:20 PM
Considering registering a Confound Scottish Knaves Party


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 24, 2012, 04:21:10 AM
I'm pretty sure that if the left wins they'll be more than happy to give him the Quirinale. Monti has a pretty good profile for an Italian President.

Considering the monopoly the left seems to have on the Presidency, I'd imagine the right would be satisfied, too.

Yeah, it's funny how despite ruling for 10 out of 17 years from 1994 to 2011, Berlusconi never got to pick a President. ;D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on December 24, 2012, 06:56:02 AM
Mont made the smart decision. By running on his own, he would have ruined his "super partes" status and would have ended up as a humiliating third/fourth.

I think that many didn't understand. Monti will run! It's almost sure. He will lead as PM candidate the coalition that accept his agenda. And some parties and single MPs of PDL and PD have already adopted it. So, now the last step is that Monti will accept their support.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 24, 2012, 08:24:42 AM
Yes, at first I also thought he wasn't running...but after 10 minutes from the end of the speech, I realized it was a speech to indicate he's running!

I guess I am slow but he isn't the clearest man on earth.

So who left PDL so far to sign up to Monti's love?
Frattini, Mario Mauro MEP, Pisanu, Albertini (former Milan mayor who will run now for Lombardy presidency)...maybe Mantovani...anyone else relevant?
He got La Malfa too.
There are rumours of another 3-4 PD MPs going.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 24, 2012, 08:29:24 AM
But where are these PdL and PD MPs that are pledging themselves to Monti going? Are they waiting for a new Monti-centric party to emerge that will adopt his policies or is Monti saying it must be an already existing party that has to embrace his policies? Would these MPs join UdC?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on December 24, 2012, 08:39:34 AM
What are diverse deadlines for forming parties, formalizing lists, declaring alliances?

Looks to me like these things may actually be important this time around.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 24, 2012, 08:41:00 AM
Well, he's not really running. He's encouraging parties to back his agenda and authorizing them to use him as a symbol, but he won't himself campaign. Right?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 24, 2012, 08:56:28 AM
What are diverse deadlines for forming parties, formalizing lists, declaring alliances?

Looks to me like these things may actually be important this time around.

11-13 January: list symbols should be registred at the Interior Ministry
20-21 Jan: candidates lists must be presented


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on December 27, 2012, 06:30:13 AM
Well, he's not really running. He's encouraging parties to back his agenda and authorizing them to use him as a symbol, but he won't himself campaign. Right?

No he will run as candidate to the premiership and head of his coalition, so he will be a candidate prime minister along with Bersani, Berlusconi, one from M5S and possibly others (Ingroia?)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 27, 2012, 10:16:24 AM
I was just looking at the election Wiki page and noticed this new party - "Orange Movement." One of the leaders (Ingroia) is mentioned above but the other is de Magistris. Why did he leave IdV?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 28, 2012, 09:27:21 AM
Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zuza on December 28, 2012, 09:56:16 AM

How such a huge leap can be explained?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on December 28, 2012, 10:32:21 AM
Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 28, 2012, 10:34:18 AM
Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.

Oops! It was listed in the polling section of the Wiki page. Someone might want to remove that...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on December 28, 2012, 10:35:43 AM
Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.

Oops! It was listed in the polling section of the Wiki page. Someone might want to remove that...

Yeah, they should remove it. It's kinda strange that they think a German company would poll an Italian election ... Unless this Wahlfieber company actually did (?) Maybe they commissioned a poll ? I have to check this ... Do you have the link, Phil ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 28, 2012, 10:37:20 AM
Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.

Oops! It was listed in the polling section of the Wiki page. Someone might want to remove that...

Yeah, they should remove it. It's kinda strange that they think a German company would poll an Italian election ... Unless this Wahlfieber company actually did (?) Maybe they commissioned a poll ? I have to check this ... Do you have the link, Phil ?

I did find it odd that a German company would poll the election. Then again, considering the impact that this could have on Europe, it isn't that crazy.

http://wahlfieber.de/de_du/markt/ITA-2013--parlamentswahlen-in-italien-2013/ (http://wahlfieber.de/de_du/markt/ITA-2013--parlamentswahlen-in-italien-2013/)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on December 28, 2012, 10:39:53 AM
Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.

Oops! It was listed in the polling section of the Wiki page. Someone might want to remove that...

Yeah, they should remove it. It's kinda strange that they think a German company would poll an Italian election ... Unless this Wahlfieber company actually did (?) Maybe they commissioned a poll ? I have to check this ... Do you have the link, Phil ?

I did find it odd that a German company would poll the election. Then again, considering the impact that this could have on Europe, it isn't that crazy.

http://wahlfieber.de/de_du/markt/ITA-2013--parlamentswahlen-in-italien-2013/ (http://wahlfieber.de/de_du/markt/ITA-2013--parlamentswahlen-in-italien-2013/)

Yeah, it looks definitely like the prediction market, not like an actual poll.

They need to remove it from Wiki.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on December 28, 2012, 10:45:25 AM
If you need the latest polls, check here:

http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/ListaSondaggi.aspx?st=SONDAGGI

PS: You need to click on a survey where it says "INTENZIONI DI VOTO" and then after you clicked it on "DOMANDE" (questions).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 28, 2012, 02:19:31 PM
Monti met UDC, FLI and Italia Futura today.

They decided for a single list at the Senate (predictable because of the thresholds there) but for a coalition at the House. The old motto "more lists, more votes"

Holy Roman Church endorsed Monti. No surprise.

Tabacci presented its list called Centro Democratico (Democratic Centre) in support of Bersani.

Silvio's divorce settlement has been published: the former wife will get 3,000,000€ each month.





Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 28, 2012, 02:49:22 PM
A truly fascinating country.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 28, 2012, 02:50:40 PM
I'm sure Monti will regret running. He probably doesn't realize that the admiration of financial and political elites isn't representative of his popularity among regular Italians.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 28, 2012, 04:57:04 PM
IPR Marketing poll for TG3

PD 31%
SEL 4.5%
Other Centre-Left (Tabacci and co) 2%

Monti List 10%
UDC 3.5%
FLI 2.5%

PDL 16.5%
Lega 5.5%
La Destra 2%

M5S 14%

Orange Movement 2.5%
IDV Di Pietro 2%
Pannella/Bonino 1.5%

I don't know the exact wording but the question with PM candidates named resulted in Bersani 37% Monti 24% Berlusconi 24%


Because of new Census figures, there has been a change in seats allocation by regions.

House

Piemonte I (Turin) -1 seat
Lombardy II +2
Lombardy III +1
Trentino Alto Adige +1
Veneto I +2
Liguria -1
Emilia +2
Lazio I (Rome) +2
Lazio II (everything else) +1
Campania I (Naples) -1
Campania II (everything else) -1
Puglia -2
Calabria -2
Sicily I -1
Sicily II -1
Sardinia -2

Senate

Lombardy +2
Emilia +1
Lazio +1
Campania -1
Puglia -1
Sicily -1
Sardinia -1





Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 28, 2012, 05:08:06 PM
I was wondering about seat allocation changes and was about to ask about it. Thank. :)  Sad to see such seat loss in the south.

I'm surprised Berlusconi is polling that high in PM preference.

Also, didn't Lega say they won't run with PdL as long as Berlusconi is the standard bearer?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 28, 2012, 07:23:04 PM
Has Monti just tried to refound the DC's?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Barnes on December 28, 2012, 07:25:41 PM

Seems like it; Italian politics never cease to fascinate. ;)

EDIT: Sorry about that ridiculous typo; iPhones, on the other hand, continue to misinterpret words. 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on December 29, 2012, 01:14:55 AM
Is it possible that the PD forms a coalition with a strong Monti-led centre-block ?

Who would likey become PM then ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on December 29, 2012, 01:29:43 AM
Is it possible that the PD forms a coalition with a strong Monti-led centre-block ?

Who would likey become PM then ?

They won't need to. PD+SEL+other left will have their own majority.

Italy's election system is rigged so that the largest party/coalition automaticly wins 54% of the seats. The left will have a solid majority of their owm. No need to compromise with Monti in the centre.   


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 29, 2012, 04:00:37 AM
Also, didn't Lega say they won't run with PdL as long as Berlusconi is the standard bearer?

Yes, they said so this week. But I don't think they have made a final decision yet.



Is it possible that the PD forms a coalition with a strong Monti-led centre-block ?

Who would likey become PM then ?

They won't need to. PD+SEL+other left will have their own majority.

Italy's election system is rigged so that the largest party/coalition automaticly wins 54% of the seats. The left will have a solid majority of their owm. No need to compromise with Monti in the centre.   

At the House, yest. At the Senate, it is more complicated. The seats bonus is determined at regional level (winning coalition in region X gets 55% of seats in region X and so on).
It's tricky there for the PD & co if they don't carry 1 between Lombardia, Veneto or Sicilia (and they need to win Campania). If Lega goes alone, it will make the task much much easier.

A difference compared to 2006 and 2008 it's that at the time in the region they lost they almost won all the seats destined to opposition...this time they will have to divide them with at least 2 other blocks.
On the other hand, the fact there are many more competitive lists allows PD to win a couple of regions without needing high %.



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 29, 2012, 06:31:15 AM

Emphasis on "tried", though.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on December 29, 2012, 07:50:32 AM
Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.

Oops! It was listed in the polling section of the Wiki page. Someone might want to remove that...

Yeah, they should remove it. It's kinda strange that they think a German company would poll an Italian election ... Unless this Wahlfieber company actually did (?) Maybe they commissioned a poll ? I have to check this ... Do you have the link, Phil ?
It's a market.

And despite the website domain being registered in Germany, it's actually an Austrian company. ;D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 29, 2012, 07:41:03 PM
Oh, the irony of Tender not knowing that it's an Austrian firm...

As for the Senate battle, even with LN not running with PdL, could PD really get Lombardy or Veneto? Sicily seems most likely. From the little I know, I'd assume Campania is with PD.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on December 30, 2012, 02:54:57 AM
Oh, the irony of Tender not knowing that it's an Austrian firm...

How would I know it if it was a ".de" domain in your link ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 30, 2012, 06:04:21 AM
In a couple of places (for ex Turin) PD incumbents did really bad in yesterday's vote.
Some youngish faces in Lombardy too. Civati won in Monza, Guerini in Lodi, 33 year old Braga is reconfirmed in Como, a 27 years old girl carried Lecco. Veteran Barbara Pollastrini came out on top in Milan but behind her in good positions there are new people like Quartapelle, LaForgia, Mauri.
Renzi's spin doctor and former TV producer Giorgio Gori flopped in Bergamo (predictable. I had him at best third, he finished 4th).
Rosy Bind has apparently won in Reggio Calabria.
Votes from Naples are as slow as usual to come in.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 30, 2012, 06:36:33 AM
As for the Senate battle, even with LN not running with PdL, could PD really get Lombardy or Veneto?

I remember seeing a poll for the Lombardia regional election (naturally, it might not be representative of the Senate election) showing a very close fight if Lega and PdL allied and an easy win for the left if they ran separately.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on December 30, 2012, 07:01:05 AM
Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.

Oops! It was listed in the polling section of the Wiki page. Someone might want to remove that...

Yeah, they should remove it. It's kinda strange that they think a German company would poll an Italian election ... Unless this Wahlfieber company actually did (?) Maybe they commissioned a poll ? I have to check this ... Do you have the link, Phil ?

I did find it odd that a German company would poll the election. Then again, considering the impact that this could have on Europe, it isn't that crazy.

http://wahlfieber.de/de_du/markt/ITA-2013--parlamentswahlen-in-italien-2013/ (http://wahlfieber.de/de_du/markt/ITA-2013--parlamentswahlen-in-italien-2013/)

YouGov have polled the French election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 30, 2012, 08:44:38 AM
As for the Senate battle, even with LN not running with PdL, could PD really get Lombardy or Veneto?

I remember seeing a poll for the Lombardia regional election (naturally, it might not be representative of the Senate election) showing a very close fight if Lega and PdL allied and an easy win for the left if they ran separately.

Yeah but that could be in response to the Formigoni scandal. I don't know how much that will affect the parliamentary elections though it obviously doesn't help things.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on December 30, 2012, 09:01:27 AM
Oh, the irony of Tender not knowing that it's an Austrian firm...

How would I know it if it was a ".de" domain in your link ?
It just goes to show how obscure this thing is.

It's 'ironic' (not really) because of your encyclopedic knowledge of American pollsters.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 30, 2012, 09:10:34 AM
It's ironic because Tender knows every single thing that's Austrian. Hiding behind the .de isn't an excuse to not know. :P

Ok, that's as far as I'll allow this glorious thread to be Austrianized.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 30, 2012, 11:04:11 AM
Rosy Bindi is second in Reggio Calabria's  PD MP selection. Way above the third (she basically run in a male-female ticket with the regional councillor who topped the poll with a couple of hundreds more votes than her).

Still no figures from Naples but Bassolino's wife is out. Cazzolino (Bassolino's pupil) pushed for another woman who came out on top.


As for the Senate battle, even with LN not running with PdL, could PD really get Lombardy or Veneto?

I remember seeing a poll for the Lombardia regional election (naturally, it might not be representative of the Senate election) showing a very close fight if Lega and PdL allied and an easy win for the left if they ran separately.

Yeah but that could be in response to the Formigoni scandal. I don't know how much that will affect the parliamentary elections though it obviously doesn't help things.

In 2008 in Lombardy, at the Senate, PdL polled 34.4% and Lega 20.7%
PD got 28.2% and Di Pietro 3.8%. I suppose PD+SEL should be in low 30s. And I think it could be enough to carry the region if PdL and Lega run separately


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 30, 2012, 11:40:10 AM
Yikes. I didn't realize the Traitors got 21% in the region. That's alarming.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on December 30, 2012, 11:54:10 AM
Yikes. I didn't realize the Traitors got 21% in the region. That's alarming.
34%.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 30, 2012, 12:30:26 PM
Yikes. I didn't realize the Traitors got 21% in the region. That's alarming.
34%.

Funny, funny.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 30, 2012, 01:09:09 PM
Funny how PdL got a lower score in Lombardia than nationwide in 2008. Lega really siphoned a lot of votes...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 30, 2012, 01:17:44 PM
Have any recent polls shown a regional break down?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 30, 2012, 01:20:19 PM
I've seen no poll that does that, so far.

At least a North/Centre/South+Islands breakdown could be interesting.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on December 30, 2012, 05:42:40 PM
Is anybody out there who could lift my understanding of Italian politics above the stereotypical "a few larger parties, usually corruption prone and with mafia links, plus dozens of small parties, mostly with a half-life period of less than ten years" image?

For a start, it would be nice to get a delineation of major political groups, their key issues and geograhic / demographic base. [You can skip the Neofascist / Berlusconi / Lega Nord part, I am comparatevely well aware of that, even though learning more about their geographic base might still be interesting].


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on December 30, 2012, 05:50:01 PM
I'd recommend going back to the first page; Antonio furnished us with a fair bit of info then.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RodPresident on December 30, 2012, 06:21:56 PM
Any conversations about Levi-Montalcini replacement in Senate?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on December 30, 2012, 07:39:55 PM
I'd recommend going back to the first page; Antonio furnished us with a fair bit of info then.
I apologise for my lazyness in reading the thread from the beginning, and thumbs-up to Antonio for his excellent work!

My takeaways from the initial pages (sorry for mumbling to myself):
1. Italian politics still continues to be driven by personalities, rather than issues (in which it is more comparable to France than, say, countries like the UK, Germany or Spain).
2. Trying to get some structure into the Italian party landscape, it may be grouped like this (I take German parties as reference framework, since this is what I am best acquainted with):
 PD- Social democrats (at their worst German meaning, i.e. somewhere left of center, but without clear direction, and lacking charismatic leadership)
 PdL, VTR, LN, UDC - conservative (christian democratic) in various shades, in most cases more divided by personal rivalry than on issues
 SEL - some kind of amalgam of Greens and The Left (in a way I don't understand, but - on the other hand - is there anybody outside Germany understanding why Greens and Die Linke in Germany will never come together..)
 Grillo/MSS - Italian version of the Pirates (young, urban, anti-establishment, 'let us unite on direct democracy/Internet freedom, everything else we discuss later')
 Orange Movement, IDV - specific Italian, located somewhere close to the left wing of the German FDP and the right wing of the German Greens.

Still, I would love to learn more on the geographical base of all these parties. E.g., on a holiday trip a few years ago I discovered that Apulia is quite different from the stereotypical Mezzogiorno, and I am curious how that plays out politically.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 30, 2012, 07:57:43 PM
The PD is basically the old Communist Party minus it's left wing, but plus the left wing of the old Christian Democrats.

Anyways, quite a few maps here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=79927.0


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 30, 2012, 08:29:37 PM

Still, I would love to learn more on the geographical base of all these parties. E.g., on a holiday trip a few years ago I discovered that Apulia is quite different from the stereotypical Mezzogiorno, and I am curious how that plays out politically.

For a very basic rundown:

The north is PdL's stronghold (especially Lombardy, Veneto and Piedmont). PdL also did well in the southern regions of Campania, Apulia (making Vendola's terms in office even astounding but that's a whole different topic. He got awfully lucky especially the second time around) and Sicily. Lazio (which I wouldn't count as southern. It really depends on who you ask) is also good for PdL. We'll see how much regional scandals in Lombardy and Lazio hurt the party though. That's not to mention taking into account the crash they've experienced on the national level.

PD obviously does best in the "Red Quadrilateral"(Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Marche and Umbria) and the southern region of Basilicata.

Lega Nord's base is...well...you know. Their best regions are Veneto and Lombardy. Piedmont and  Friuli-Venezia Giulia also show LN decent support.

UdC does best in southern regions. Shouldn't surprise anyone.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on December 31, 2012, 04:11:05 AM
I'd recommend going back to the first page; Antonio furnished us with a fair bit of info then.
I apologise for my lazyness in reading the thread from the beginning, and thumbs-up to Antonio for his excellent work!

My takeaways from the initial pages (sorry for mumbling to myself):
1. Italian politics still continues to be driven by personalities, rather than issues (in which it is more comparable to France than, say, countries like the UK, Germany or Spain).
2. Trying to get some structure into the Italian party landscape, it may be grouped like this (I take German parties as reference framework, since this is what I am best acquainted with):
 PD- Social democrats (at their worst German meaning, i.e. somewhere left of center, but without clear direction, and lacking charismatic leadership)
 PdL, VTR, LN, UDC - conservative (christian democratic) in various shades, in most cases more divided by personal rivalry than on issues
 SEL - some kind of amalgam of Greens and The Left (in a way I don't understand, but - on the other hand - is there anybody outside Germany understanding why Greens and Die Linke in Germany will never come together..)
 Grillo/MSS - Italian version of the Pirates (young, urban, anti-establishment, 'let us unite on direct democracy/Internet freedom, everything else we discuss later')
 Orange Movement, IDV - specific Italian, located somewhere close to the left wing of the German FDP and the right wing of the German Greens.

Still, I would love to learn more on the geographical base of all these parties. E.g., on a holiday trip a few years ago I discovered that Apulia is quite different from the stereotypical Mezzogiorno, and I am curious how that plays out politically.

No, I think you didn't get very well the situation, but it's not your fault, Italy's politics is a messy, especially recently, after 15 years of stability (in italian terms...) there is a major "shaking".
So now, for next elections we have:

PD: socialdemocratic, with a pragmatic and not utopistic agenda, in primaries Bersani prevailed with his more Hollande-like position over Renzi's liberal-blairian ones.
SEL: PD ally, former communist, socialist ecologist agenda, in favour of more social spending, state intervention, gay rights, etc, European left in general

 Together with PSI (socialist) and API (centrists) they are the leftist coalition for BErsani's premiership

Then we have
UDC: christian democratic party, with roots in former ruling DC, close to german CDU, with more clientelism, especially in the South but in the last year supported more than others Monti's austerity
ItaliaFutura/Lista Monti: it will be the liberal/centrist list of Mario Monti, inspired to Economist's True Progressivims, so liberal policies with strong reforms of welfare state, to make country more productive, even with unpopular policies, europeist attitude
FLI: Fini's party, it split from Berlusconi's PDL, rightist-liberal party, now very small

With maybe other parties and/or personalities from PD and PDL they are the coalition that will support Monti's premiership

Then
PDL: Berlusconi's party you already know, now stressing on anti-austerity, anti-taxation, also euroskeptic, I think it's now closer to austrian FPO or UK UKIP and euroskepitc Tories
Destra (Right): natianalist, very conservative party, with roots in post-fascist MSI and AN

Together with Grande Sud (southern local party) they will probably support Berlusconi's premiership

Lega Nord: you already know, populist party in favour of retaining taxation in his own region, anti-immigration, it seems difficult they will form again an alliance with Berlusconi

M5S: Grillo's movement, a bit like german Pirate party, with populist elements

Arancioni: Greens, communists, Di Pietro, it's radical left alliance, for an alternative economy, and anti-corruption issues, to the left of SEL, they will support Ingroia for premiership


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 31, 2012, 06:04:46 AM
Yeah, Iannis is right in terms of political groupings. To simplify, the Italian landscape is split into 4 main poles:
- The "institutional" center-left, led by PD and supported by SEL and a few minor parties. They have been holding easy leads in polls for years now.
- The old Berlusconian right - basically PdL, accompanied by Storace's La Destra and by La Russa's new party "Fratelli d'Italia". It is yet unclear whether the Lega will join them, but Maroni seems to be leaning toward running alone.
- The centrist constellation, which is an utter mess. Here we have UDC, FLI, API (the now defunct "third pole"), plus Montezemolo's new fad, a few other parties with stupid name. All these guys have gotten behind Monti, which will run his own list for the House (on the Senate, there will be a common "Monti list" gathering all these guys).
- M5S, which is basically telling every other party to f**k off.

Ingroia and the "Oranges" stand somewhere between PD and M5S, but probably won't manage to ally with any of them. Anyways, they are mostly irrelevant electorally speaking.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on December 31, 2012, 06:59:59 AM
I had forgot Fratelli d'Italia, Berlusconi's split-off and ally.
I signal that API will be Bersani's ally with the list "Centro Democratico".
Monti's list will be present also in Chamber of deputies, it will be the Italia futura list, that will adopt a name with "Monti" inside.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 31, 2012, 07:11:40 AM
I had forgot Fratelli d'Italia, Berlusconi's split-off and ally.
I signal that API will be Bersani's ally with the list "Centro Democratico".
Monti's list will be present also in Chamber of deputies, it will be the Italia futura list, that will adopt a name with "Monti" inside.

Sorry, thanks for the correction.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on December 31, 2012, 08:05:18 AM
It looks like we got rid of D'Antoni and Garavaglia through the PD primaries.
Other incumbents on their way out or struggling in many areas. None of them were national names though.
Finocchiaro won Taranto.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 31, 2012, 09:45:10 AM
Just so I understand, candidates file for the Primary in constituencies that aren't necessarily where they live by orders of the party leadership (or, if they're renegades or party leaders themselves, wherever they want)? Can they vote in that constituency in the Primary and General or do they have to vote where they actually live if they live in another constituency?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on December 31, 2012, 10:26:49 AM
Just so I understand, candidates file for the Primary in constituencies that aren't necessarily where they live by orders of the party leadership (or, if they're renegades or party leaders themselves, wherever they want)? Can they vote in that constituency in the Primary and General or do they have to vote where they actually live if they live in another constituency?

I think that the place where they live is not important at all for the candidacy. But everyone has to vote where they live.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on December 31, 2012, 12:42:37 PM
Yeah, Iannis is right in terms of political groupings. To simplify, the Italian landscape is split into 4 main poles:
- The "institutional" center-left, led by PD and supported by SEL and a few minor parties. They have been holding easy leads in polls for years now.
- The old Berlusconian right - basically PdL, accompanied by Storace's La Destra and by La Russa's new party "Fratelli d'Italia". It is yet unclear whether the Lega will join them, but Maroni seems to be leaning toward running alone.
- The centrist constellation, which is an utter mess. Here we have UDC, FLI, API (the now defunct "third pole"), plus Montezemolo's new fad, a few other parties with stupid name. All these guys have gotten behind Monti, which will run his own list for the House (on the Senate, there will be a common "Monti list" gathering all these guys).
- M5S, which is basically telling every other party to f**k off.

Ingroia and the "Oranges" stand somewhere between PD and M5S, but probably won't manage to ally with any of them. Anyways, they are mostly irrelevant electorally speaking.

So, to sum it up: There are four major blocks, namely (1) centre-left (PD,Bersani), centre-right (Monti), populist-right (Berlusconi) and populist-left (Grillo), plus a bunch of smaller parties, whereby the allocation of individual smaller parties to any of these blocks is still in flux. Plus, we have ethnic minority parties in South Tyrolia and Val d'Aosta (what about Sardinia, b.t.w.?), which I could assume to be strongly pro-European but otherwise rather conservative, so they most likely end up in Monti's coalition (which may matter on Senate level).

Current polls have the PD bloc at somewhere around 30-35%, and the other three blocks around 15-20% each, of course with a lot of uncertainty as alliance-building is not yet complete. Nevertheless, as it looks now, under the specific Italian voting system the current PD block might have enough of a lead to gain absolute house majority, while things in the Senate could get more complicated.

If I have been correct so far, this leaves me with the following questions:
1. How likely / unlikely is it that the currently leading PD bloc will still be surpassed by any of the other blocks (which one)?
2. Is there anybody out there who would dare to come out with some sort of Senate prediction?
3. Assuming that Bersani wins the House and is not facing a completely obstructionist Senate, how long will his coalition last (it is Italy, after all)?

Happy New Year to everybody!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on December 31, 2012, 01:06:46 PM
Sardinia never got the kind of special election law deals that Aoste and Trentino-Südtirol have, and while nationalist parties run there, they don't poll anywhere near enough to matter except in a very close election.
Aoste's election will presumably be between two essentially independent candidates, one affiliated with Monti and the other with the PD, again.
Conservative as the SVP's rhetoric is, they're far too cautious to switch alliances at short notice and a PD government is the least unfriendly to autonomy government they can get. So allied to the PD they remain (I did actually check to verify this). What happens next time around should a Monti centre right bloc establish itself and look like it has staying power, though, is any one's guess.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zuza on December 31, 2012, 01:57:12 PM
Are there still any chances that Berlusconi and Monti will form united right-wing coalition?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 31, 2012, 03:12:07 PM
1. How likely / unlikely is it that the currently leading PD bloc will still be surpassed by any of the other blocks (which one)?

I think the answer I gave to an unrelated question a couple weeks ago is still valid here:

When it comes to Italy, "anything can happen" is always the best answer. Wouldn't bet on this though.

To be more specific, the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point. However, keep in mind that in the past couple days we have seen political shifts that would have been unthinkable before. Italy is clearly in a phase of major realignment, and politics in this period is more fluid and unstable than ever. Assigning probabilities isn't easy in this situation.

Who would win if the PD doesn't? The scenario of a PD defeat seems so remote that it's hard to envision who would win in such a case. I guess the most likely remains the PdL coalition, since it slightly leads the other two in recent polls. This would take a lot of good things to go right for Berlusconi to win, though: 1- They have to get the Lega's support, which seems increasingly unlikely 2- They have to hope La Russa's party is effective as a way to channel old AN voters back into the old right-wing coalition 3-Bersani to stumble significantly, which is hard to envisions because most Italians already have low expectancies about him 4-mainly, they have to regain at least some of the countless voters who are sick and tired of Berlusconi and his shenanigans. I highly doubt that "good ol' Berlusconi magic" will be enough for this. People know his tricks by now.

The 3rd most likely would be the Monti/centrist coalition (mainly because a M5S win just looks like an April fool's joke), but this would require even more unlikely events than a PdL victory. The only way this could happen is if the Berlusconian right completely collapses and its voters massively defect to Monti's coalition. This would make sense from an ideological perspective, since Monti is your typical run-of-the-mill neoliberal economist coupled with a very "catholic" austere style which should please Italian rightists. However, you have to remember that what's left of the PdL's is made up of diehard berlusconists who follow him anywhere and believe all of his words. To them, Monti is the Enemy and ideology plays little role in that.

As for M5S winning, that would be... quite something. :P


Quote
2. Is there anybody out there who would dare to come out with some sort of Senate prediction?

I'm not a specialist of the political situation region-by-region, so I won't dare making a prediction. But let me just say that, if there's no alliance between Lega and PdL, it's very hard to see PD not winning a majority. Of course, you never know.


Quote
3. Assuming that Bersani wins the House and is not facing a completely obstructionist Senate, how long will his coalition last (it is Italy, after all)?

If the left coalition ends up being, as it looks now, PD+SEL+some minor outfits, this could actually end up being the most stable left-wing coalition ever (I know, that's not saying much :P). PD would likely end up with 43-46% of the seats in the House, and would rely only on SEL to rule (this could prove a bit shaky, but SEL is no PRC and should be able to bow down if necessary to avoid collapse). If the Senate breaks down like the House (which, as I said, is likely if PdL and Lega run separately), I could see Bersani holding on until 2018. Maybe mine is wishful thinking, though. :P


Are there still any chances that Berlusconi and Monti will form united right-wing coalition?

Considering Berlusconi recently called Monti a traitor who was instated through a coup orchestrated by an evil conspiracy of speculator and foreign leaders... that's a bit hard to see. :P He even said that if he won he would create a commission of inquiry to try the actors of this evil conspiracy. No kidding, I swear. Welcome in Italy. ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 31, 2012, 03:14:05 PM
BTW, just watched Napolitano's wishes and... wow. This is what a statesman looks like. Politicians of his intellectual quality are a near-extinct species.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on December 31, 2012, 03:17:04 PM
Are there still any chances that Berlusconi and Monti will form united right-wing coalition?

No.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 31, 2012, 04:54:47 PM
BTW, just watched Napolitano's wishes and... wow. This is what a statesman looks like. Politicians of his intellectual quality are a near-extinct species.

They are, but then they were never very common. If you ever get the chance to, you should read a (very) long interview he did with Eric Hobsbawm in the 80s; it was published in English as The Italian road to socialism, though was first published in Italian (not sure of the title).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 31, 2012, 05:35:22 PM
BTW, just watched Napolitano's wishes and... wow. This is what a statesman looks like. Politicians of his intellectual quality are a near-extinct species.

They are, but then they were never very common. If you ever get the chance to, you should read a (very) long interview he did with Eric Hobsbawm in the 80s; it was published in English as The Italian road to socialism, though was first published in Italian (not sure of the title).

I looked it up, seems that it was published in 1976 in Italy, under the title "Intervista sul PCI". That's quite impressive, really.

Of course it's true that politicians of this kind have never been very common species, but to be fair, the Italian political class during the DC era was remarkably prolific in brilliant, cultured people who were thinkers as well as politicians. Especially from the PCI, of course. From what I have seen, Vendola seems to be the only remnant of this tradition with a political future.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 31, 2012, 05:41:27 PM
I looked it up, seems that it was published in 1976 in Italy, under the title "Intervista sul PCI". That's quite impressive, really.

Ah, 70s not 80s; I confused it with something else (and I know what as well).

Quote
Of course it's true that politicians of this kind have never been very common species, but to be fair, the Italian political class during the DC era was remarkably prolific in brilliant, cultured people who were thinkers as well as politicians. Especially from the PCI, of course. From what I have seen, Vendola seems to be the only remnant of this tradition with a political future.

Well, I suppose if Gramsci is one of your founding figures...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 31, 2012, 05:49:09 PM
True. :) But to be fair, I think there were quite a few of these intellectuals in other parties as well.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zuza on December 31, 2012, 10:42:28 PM
the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 01, 2013, 08:27:45 AM
Just so I understand, candidates file for the Primary in constituencies that aren't necessarily where they live by orders of the party leadership (or, if they're renegades or party leaders themselves, wherever they want)? Can they vote in that constituency in the Primary and General or do they have to vote where they actually live if they live in another constituency?

Yes, you don't have to live where you stand. For ex Bindi and Finocchiaro have nothing to do with Reggio Calabria and Taranto. Generally, almost all PD candidates who stood in the Primary did it in the province they live or where they were elected in 2008. Just because it's where they could have hoped to get some votes.
Many prominent PD people skipped them anyway. Bersani will put them in his 10% of candidates quota

As for voting, they will vote in the municipality where their name appears on the residents' register.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 01, 2013, 08:31:18 AM
You can even stand in many constituencies at the same time (unless they changed the law in the last few years. Of course, I assume the PD's bylaws may ban it even if the law allows it.) But you cannot stand for the Camera and the Senate at the same time. That is verboten.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 01, 2013, 08:32:26 AM
You can even stand in many constituencies at the same time (unless they changed the law in the last few years. Of course, I assume the PD's bylaws may ban it even if the law allows it.) But you cannot stand for the Camera and the Senate at the same time. That is verboten.

Bersani is supposed to stand in Milan, Naples and Rome. I suppose Berlusconi will stand everywhere at the House.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 01, 2013, 08:40:57 AM
You can even stand in many constituencies at the same time (unless they changed the law in the last few years. Of course, I assume the PD's bylaws may ban it even if the law allows it.) But you cannot stand for the Camera and the Senate at the same time. That is verboten.

Bersani is supposed to stand in Milan, Naples and Rome. I suppose Berlusconi will stand everywhere at the House.
I remember the time PdL and AN had joint lists and each got to top half of them... Berlusconi topped all the lists PdL was allowed to top (no IIRC - big if this - there was one exception), and didn't stand where he couldn't be no.1.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 01, 2013, 09:25:13 AM
Any candidate that stands in more than one constituency is surely a party leader and part of the 10% quota, right?

Also, I remember Berlusconi ran in one of the Molise constituencies for some reason in 2006.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 01, 2013, 09:32:22 AM
Any candidate that stands in more than one constituency is surely a party leader
Of course.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on January 01, 2013, 10:16:43 AM
Sorry for again changing the topic a bit: I recall Dario Fo's observation from the late 1970's that Guelph cities tend to vote red, while Ghibelline cities tend to vote black (IIRC, he used the examples of Florence, Pisa and Lucca to demonstrate his point). Does this pattern still hold true somehow, or has it been wiped out by the emergence of Lega Nord and the various reconfigurations of the Italian political landscape ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 01, 2013, 10:56:30 AM
the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

More to the point, what happened in 1994 shouldn't be forgotten either...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 01, 2013, 11:38:37 AM
the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

More to the point, what happened in 1994 shouldn't be forgotten either...

Hence why I said "in any other country".


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 01, 2013, 11:44:37 AM
the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

More to the point, what happened in 1994 shouldn't be forgotten either...

Hence why I said "in any other country".

We're just trying to install necessary fear in anyone who feels at all confident (which obviously would never include you; remembering the French Presidential election).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 01, 2013, 11:47:45 AM
the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

More to the point, what happened in 1994 shouldn't be forgotten either...

Hence why I said "in any other country".

We're just trying to install necessary fear in anyone who feels at all confident (which obviously would never include you; remembering the French Presidential election).

That being another example of an overwhelming lead collapsing in the last few weeks.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on January 01, 2013, 12:09:08 PM
the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

From socialist to social democrat though. I can't see a similar movement happening the opposite way (however much I'd like it to), even less so to the PDL or Monti lists - well maybe the latter, but I'd be surprised to see many leftists opting for his vision!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Simfan34 on January 01, 2013, 12:37:41 PM
Hmm, I want to join the action in this thread, but am not sure exactly how to proceed. Hmm. Well, I like Mario Monti. When The Economist and L'Obsservatore Romano agree on something, I can't say no. Seems to have his head screwed on right, economically and socially. He's an economist, and as a wannabe I have a soft spot for economists. One of those "serious people" oakvale is always harping on about. He also seems to be trying to recreate Democrazia Cristiana. Not sure how that's going to work. As for the PDs, I'm not sure how to approach Bersani, he seems to come from the old-school Communist tradition and would be more of a Hollande type than a moderate like Prodi that came from the DC. I was hoping Rienzi would win, because I don't really have much faith in Bersani. Berlusconi should really go retire. He's openly a farce by this point. I'd like to see him win just to laugh at Italy, but I like Italy too much.

Hey, whatever happened to Fini's party? Where'd it go? Is it any sort of neofascist? Or have they finally given up on that? I've always thought it possible to look at post-Mani Pulite Italy from the pessimistic perspective of having a bunch of ex-Communists and ex-Fascists running the show in some bowdlerised Wiemar.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 01, 2013, 12:51:42 PM
the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

More to the point, what happened in 1994 shouldn't be forgotten either...

Hence why I said "in any other country".

We're just trying to install necessary fear in anyone who feels at all confident (which obviously would never include you; remembering the French Presidential election).

I am, indeed, shuddering every day. Just learning that elections will be held on Feb 24 rather than Feb 10 as initially hypothesized was horrible news to me. I know Berlusconi is desperate and would do literally anything to means, even if it means wrecking Italy beyond any hope. My only hope is that he's too incompetent to succeed...

But anyway, Lega has to take a decision on Jan 8 on where they will stand. If they stand alone, as it seems likely, I'll sigh with deep relief. If in an upset Berlusconi manages do make a deal, let's brace ourselves...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 01, 2013, 01:56:35 PM
Benvenuto, Sim!

Fini's party is still around. Sadly, it never really got off the ground. I still support FLI but, realistically, they're not a factor. It isn't neofascist at all. You're probably thinking of old Fini/AN. Fini now has a more moderate reputation now. Key AN members founded the new right wing party: Fratelli d'Italia Centrodestra Nazionale. That's the other party I support.

And I'm glad many members here are coming back down to earth. A center-left win is far from a guarantee. This is Italy and I don't just say that to be a smart ass. Berlusconi will pull out his Red Scare tactics (as he should with Bersani) so that should narrow it. That said, there is a clear favorite here and the Right would have to put on one spectacular performance to pull this off.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 01, 2013, 02:09:34 PM
Any candidate that stands in more than one constituency is surely a party leader and part of the 10% quota, right?

Yes


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 01, 2013, 02:52:33 PM
Yeah, Fini's not a neofascist in any meaningful sense. He's even pretty moderate by Italian standards.

In all fairness, I have to admit that AN's evolution is a rare example of a far-right party that genuinely dropped the extremism and evolved into a mainstream political force. There are a number of far-right parties throughout Europe that claim to have done this and blatantly haven't (FN is the prime example). Most of ex-AN guys are still idiots and assholes, but not fascists.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 01, 2013, 02:57:32 PM
Yeah, Fini's not a neofascist in any meaningful sense. He's even pretty moderate by Italian standards.

In all fairness, I have to admit that AN's evolution is a rare example of a far-right party that genuinely dropped the extremism and evolved into a mainstream political force. There are a number of far-right parties throughout Europe that claim to have done this and blatantly haven't (FN is the prime example). Most of ex-AN guys are still idiots and assholes, but not fascists.

Yeah, this new AN party really lives up to its center-right name. Certainly more centrist than extreme. I guess abrasive personalities like La Russa fit in your "asshole" description but that's ok. :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 01, 2013, 04:49:28 PM
And I'm glad many members here are coming back down to earth. A center-left win is far from a guarantee. This is Italy and I don't just say that to be a smart ass. Berlusconi will pull out his Red Scare tactics (as he should with Bersani) so that should narrow it. That said, there is a clear favorite here and the Right would have to put on one spectacular performance to pull this off.

Ah, but it isn't just Berlusconi I'm thinking of.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 01, 2013, 05:50:59 PM
And I'm glad many members here are coming back down to earth. A center-left win is far from a guarantee. This is Italy and I don't just say that to be a smart ass. Berlusconi will pull out his Red Scare tactics (as he should with Bersani) so that should narrow it. That said, there is a clear favorite here and the Right would have to put on one spectacular performance to pull this off.

Ah, but it isn't just Berlusconi I'm thinking of.

Aside from Lega, anyone else in particular?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 01, 2013, 07:15:56 PM
Full results of PD Parliamentary Primary

http://www.primarieparlamentaripd.it/risultati.htm

And I'm glad many members here are coming back down to earth. A center-left win is far from a guarantee. This is Italy and I don't just say that to be a smart ass. Berlusconi will pull out his Red Scare tactics (as he should with Bersani) so that should narrow it. That said, there is a clear favorite here and the Right would have to put on one spectacular performance to pull this off.

Ah, but it isn't just Berlusconi I'm thinking of.

Aside from Lega, anyone else in particular?

Monti resurrecting DC and carrying it to the win?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 01, 2013, 07:25:57 PM
Monti resurrecting DC and carrying it to the win?

Basically. It doesn't seem very likely, but then Berlusconi winning in 1994 was not exactly plausible sounding until it actually happened either.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 01, 2013, 07:31:46 PM
Monti resurrecting DC and carrying it to the win?

Basically. It doesn't seem very likely, but then Berlusconi winning in 1994 was not exactly plausible sounding until it actually happened either.

Ah, I thought your initial comment was suggesting that actors other than Berlusconi would engage in Communist bashing, not about who would end up winning.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 02, 2013, 07:05:33 AM
Monti resurrecting DC and carrying it to the win?

Basically. It doesn't seem very likely, but then Berlusconi winning in 1994 was not exactly plausible sounding until it actually happened either.

You forgot

()


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 02, 2013, 07:53:14 AM
That too, yes. Better not rule anything out, no matter how strange.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 02, 2013, 09:55:27 AM
Monti slams Silvio on family values! - http://www.news24.com/World/News/Monti-slams-Berlusconi-on-family-values-20130102 (http://www.news24.com/World/News/Monti-slams-Berlusconi-on-family-values-20130102)


Oh, and we apparently missed Berlusconi's gay comments the other day:


---

The left "accuses me of everything except being gay and stealing money from Italians," the 76-year-old Mr Berlusconi said in an interview on Radio Capital.

"But I have a lot of gay friends. They're friendly and funny," said Mr Berlusconi...

---



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/silvio-berlusconi/9773029/Silvio-Berlusconi-backtracks-after-making-gay-jibe.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/silvio-berlusconi/9773029/Silvio-Berlusconi-backtracks-after-making-gay-jibe.html)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 02, 2013, 09:59:50 AM
The Left claims Silvio Berlusconi is not stealing money from Italians? News to me.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 02, 2013, 10:09:24 AM
The Left claims Silvio Berlusconi is not stealing money from Italians? News to me.

You must be unfamiliar with the recent Berlusconi habit of making especially bizarre/contradictory statements.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on January 02, 2013, 10:23:42 AM
Monti knows that his weak points can be the alliance with old politicians like Fini and Casini, or the blame to "re-build the DC", together with the Vatican, that's why he said he's not centrist nor a "moderate", and that ethical issues won't be at the center of the campaign, but the economy. He points to give the view of a strong reformist agenda in economic issues, trying not to fuel arguments in other issues.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 02, 2013, 10:24:27 AM
The Left claims Silvio Berlusconi is not stealing money from Italians? News to me.

You must be unfamiliar with the recent Berlusconi habit of making especially bizarre/contradictory statements.
No, I just stumbled on that line. My diagnosis from afar is Botox-induced Brain Poisoning.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 02, 2013, 10:32:05 AM
that's why he said he's not centrist nor a "moderate", and that ethical issues won't be at the center of the campaign, but the economy.

I understand the latter strategy but he isn't labeling himself as a moderate/centrist for what reason? Is he trying to pass himself off as a leftist on social policy (which just wouldn't seem believable given his alliances/endorsements he has received)? I could understand saying social/ethical issues won't be his focus but I don't know why that means he can't label himself as a moderate.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on January 02, 2013, 11:49:50 AM
that's why he said he's not centrist nor a "moderate", and that ethical issues won't be at the center of the campaign, but the economy.

I understand the latter strategy but he isn't labeling himself as a moderate/centrist for what reason? Is he trying to pass himself off as a leftist on social policy (which just wouldn't seem believable given his alliances/endorsements he has received)? I could understand saying social/ethical issues won't be his focus but I don't know why that means he can't label himself as a moderate.

No, he claims to be liberal (in european, not american meaning), but refufes to be labeled as conservative or centrist, because the latter in Italy is associated with old un-efficient politics, and claims to be keen to radical reforms, so quite the opposite to conservatorism. And beyond left-right labels.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 02, 2013, 12:02:06 PM
Quite a clever piece of electoral dishonesty. Might even work.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 02, 2013, 12:26:05 PM
that's why he said he's not centrist nor a "moderate", and that ethical issues won't be at the center of the campaign, but the economy.

I understand the latter strategy but he isn't labeling himself as a moderate/centrist for what reason? Is he trying to pass himself off as a leftist on social policy (which just wouldn't seem believable given his alliances/endorsements he has received)? I could understand saying social/ethical issues won't be his focus but I don't know why that means he can't label himself as a moderate.

No, he claims to be liberal (in european, not american meaning), but refufes to be labeled as conservative or centrist, because the latter in Italy is associated with old un-efficient politics, and claims to be keen to radical reforms, so quite the opposite to conservatorism. And beyond left-right labels.

Don't worry, you don't have to explain ideological meanings outside of the U.S. I know what "liberal" and "conservative" means in an Italian/European/rest of the world sense. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 02, 2013, 12:49:14 PM
I was looking through the coalition listings. I'll post it for reference (and also a question at the bottom). So far, it's broken into four groups:

Italy. Common Good. (Center-left - PD/SEL/PSI/CD)

Center-Right (No name given yet - PdL/La Destra/FdI-CN/GS)

Monti's Agenda for Italy (Centrist (despite what Monti says) - UdC/FLI/VTR/PLI)

Civil Revolution (Anti Corruption/Democratic socialism - IdV, FdS, MA, FdV)


Two major parties missing: Lega Nord (which will have to officially decide if they're joining the center-right coalition very soon) and M5S. I know Lega has stated that they could run on their own but is there a chance that M5S would join the "Anti Corruption" coalition or are they really not joining anyone as I believe they previously stated?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 02, 2013, 12:55:19 PM
I suppose it's no accident that Rivoluzione Civile has the same initials as Rifondazione Comunista?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zuza on January 02, 2013, 01:37:22 PM
is there a chance that M5S would join the "Anti Corruption" coalition or are they really not joining anyone as I believe they previously stated?

According to Wikipedia, Grillo refused to join Civil Revolution.

Wikipedia also contains information about some liberal list named Stop the Decline (Fermare il Declino): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stop_the_Decline. Are there any more information about it in English? Can it join, for example, Monti coalition?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 02, 2013, 02:51:29 PM
Oops. I clearly missed where Grillo stated that the door was again closed to Civil Revolution. Interesting.

As for Stop the Decline, it was founded by several economists with a focus on fiscal matters (reduction of debt and taxes as well as privatization). In case it wasn't obvious, it's described as a libertarian party. Their Wiki page doesn't have much more information.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Simfan34 on January 02, 2013, 02:55:10 PM
Sounds perfect for the Monti alliance


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 02, 2013, 03:38:31 PM
Sounds perfect for the Monti alliance

That's what I thought but being in favor of tax cuts might block that.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on January 03, 2013, 04:43:36 AM
Sounds perfect for the Monti alliance

No, it seemd that some part of Monti coalition doesn't appreciate Giannino, so he will run on his own. Usual italian clash of personalities, that will only damage the liberal area.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on January 03, 2013, 04:46:58 AM
Quite a clever piece of electoral dishonesty. Might even work.

Why dishonesty?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 03, 2013, 05:53:03 AM
Center-Right (No name given yet - PdL/La Destra/FdI-CN/GS)

What is GS?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on January 03, 2013, 06:42:42 AM

I suppose Grande Sud


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 03, 2013, 06:58:39 AM

Ah, right. LOL.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 03, 2013, 09:53:32 AM

Correct


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 03, 2013, 10:23:11 AM
Monti bashing PD, saying it "silences conservatives" and is dominated by views of CGIL and Vendola. :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 03, 2013, 10:24:35 AM
Monti bashing PD, saying it "silences conservatives" and is dominated by views of CGIL and Vendola. :D

Montibot activated campaign mode.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on January 03, 2013, 10:32:23 AM
Quite a clever piece of electoral dishonesty. Might even work.

Why dishonesty?
= Pretending to be beyond left-right labels.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 03, 2013, 10:37:29 AM
Monti bashing PD, saying it "silences conservatives" and is dominated by views of CGIL and Vendola. :D

Montibot activated campaign mode.

He couldn't let an opportunity to attack both sides pass him by: he also trashed PdL for "extreme positions."

Also, there could be a development with Lega and the center-right: Berlusconi is claiming (emphasis on "claiming") that he wouldn't be Prime Minister if the coalition wins. That would be pretty awesome if he presented himself just as the party leader but refused to take charge but that is probably the least believable idea out there.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 03, 2013, 10:43:38 AM
Monti bashing PD, saying it "silences conservatives" and is dominated by views of CGIL and Vendola. :D

Montibot activated campaign mode.

He couldn't let an opportunity to attack both sides pass him by: he also trashed PdL for "extreme positions."

Also, there could be a development with Lega and the center-right: Berlusconi is claiming (emphasis on "claiming") that he wouldn't be Prime Minister if the coalition wins. That would be pretty awesome if he presented himself just as the party leader but refused to take charge but that is probably the least believable idea out there.

I heard in the news that he called Berlusconi "volatile". That made me laugh for a couple minutes.

And about Berlusconi not becoming PM if he wins...

()


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 03, 2013, 01:34:03 PM
SEL presented their candidates' list today. More when I find them all in the same page...

Bersani lunched with Renzi.

New polls released in the first days of 2013

Piepoli (for Affari Italiani)

PD 33%
SEL 6%
Other CL (Tabacci, Socialists) 3%

Monti-UDC-FLI lists 12%

PdL 17%
La Destra/The Right 3%
Fratelli d’Italia (La Russa, Meloni and co) 2%
Intesa Popolare 2%

Lega 6%

M5S 11%

Ingroia's Civic Revolution 5%

Tecné (for SKY News)

PD 34.7%
SEl 4.2%
Other CL 1.4%

PDL 19.6%
La Destra/The Right 1.7%
Fratelli d'Italia 0.4

Lega 4.1%

Monti List 6.2%
UDC 4.6%
FLI 1.2%

M5S 16.3%

Ingroia's Civic Revolution 3.7%

CISE for Sole 24 Ore (late December)

Coalition supporting Bersani 36.2
Coalition supporting Monti 23.3
Coalition supporting Berlusconi 21.8
M5S  13.8

Still a lot of confusion around here.

Monti bashing PD, saying it "silences conservatives" and is dominated by views of CGIL and Vendola. :D

and Fassina! Bloody Fassina! Untile 1 month ago nobody knew who the hell was Fassina. Now he's one of the most talked about politicians.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 03, 2013, 01:37:15 PM
Fratelli d’Italia (La Russa, Meloni and co) 2%

Fratelli d'Italia 0.4

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 03, 2013, 01:50:24 PM
Fratelli d’Italia (La Russa, Meloni and co) 2%

Fratelli d'Italia 0.4

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

:(

What the hell? How are they doing that poorly? I know it just launched but still...

And who is Fassina?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 03, 2013, 01:59:49 PM
Fratelli d’Italia (La Russa, Meloni and co) 2%

Fratelli d'Italia 0.4

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

:(

What the hell? How are they doing that poorly? I know it just launched but still...

You mean how is it possible that people saw through the little electoral trick? I know it's a bit surprising. :P

Fassina is just some PD guy who is slightly less centrish than the rest. Not really notable AFAIK.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 03, 2013, 02:03:06 PM
It turns out SEL national executive approved just the top spots on their House and Senate lists. But basically they are the electable ones. The rest will be mainly fillers.

House

Lombardy 1: Claudio Fava, Daniele Farina, Valentina La Terza, Patrizia Quartieri
Lombardy 2: Titti Di Salvo, Luigi Lacquaniti
Lombardy 3: Franco Bordo
Piedmont 1:  Giorgio Airaudo, Celeste Costantino, Michele Curto
Piedmont 2:  Giorgio Airaudo
Veneto 1 : Alessandro Zan, Michela Faccioli
Veneto2 : Giulio Marcon , Valentina Dascanio  
Friuli Venezia Giulia: Serena Pellegrino
Liguria: Stefano Quaranta, Nico Isetta
Emilia Romagna: Francesco Ferrara, Giovanni Paglia, Cinzia Terzi
Tuscany: Martina Nardi, Marisa Nicchi, Gabriele Berni, Farihia Aidid
Umbria: Elisabetta Piccolotti
Marche: Laura Boldrini
Abruzzo: Gianni Melilla
Lazio 1: Massimiliano Smeriglio, Sergio Boccadutri, Ileana Piazzoni, Filiberto Zaratti, Cecilia D'Elia
Lazio 2: Nazzareno Pilozzi
Campania 1: Gennaro Migliore, Arturo Scotto, Antonella Cammardella
Campania 2: Gennaro Migliore, Michele Ragosta
Basilicata: Antonio Placido
Calabria: Ferdinando Aiello, Andrea Di Martino
Sicily 1: Laura Boldrini
Sicily 2: Laura Boldrini, Sofia Martino
Apulia: Nichi Vendola, Nicola Fratoianni, Annalisa Pannarale, Toni Matarrelli, Donatella Duranti, Arcangelo Sannicandro
Sardinia:  Michele Piras

Senate

Lombardy: Monica Frassoni, Tino Magni, Pina Giorgio
Piedmont: Monica Cerutti, Maria Chiara Acciarini
Veneto: Grazia Francescato, Maria Teresa Di Riso
Friuli Venezia: Grazia Francescato, Loredana Panariti
Liguria: Francesco Forgione, Carla Nattero
Emilia Romagna: Maria Luisa Boccia, Massimo Mezzetti, Elena Tagliani
Tuscany: Pape Diew, Ida Dominjanni, Alessia Petraglia, Renzo Ulivieri
Umbria: Roberto Natale
Marche: Maria Luisa Boccia
Abruzzo: Roberto Natale, Anna Suriani Camera
Lazio: Loredana De Petris, Massimo Cervellini, Maria Rita Manzo
Campania: Peppe De Cristofaro, Dino Di Palma
Basilicata: Giovanni Barozzino
Calabria: Ida Dominjanni, Eva Catizone Camera
Sicily: Francesco Forgione, Raffaele Gentile, Anna Bonforte
Apulia: Dario Stefano Giulio Volpe, Francesca Abbrescia
Sardinia: Luciano Uras


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 03, 2013, 02:07:37 PM

PD spokesman on economic affairs.
Don't feel bad if you don't know him. No-one really knew who he was.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 03, 2013, 06:57:39 PM
LOL Giuliana Sgrena didn't win SeL's primaries?

Anyway Fassina is not just the spokesman on economic affairs. He doesn't just represent the economic views of the PD,but rather contributes in creating them.
Personally,I like that he's open to criticizing monetary economics and so on,I just don't like his personality. He is way too conflictual.
And he is also too close to the unions.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 04, 2013, 06:25:39 AM
LOL Giuliana Sgrena didn't win SeL's primaries?


Not only she didn't win it, but she finished 4th (last place) in the female section


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on January 04, 2013, 10:22:30 AM
Quite a clever piece of electoral dishonesty. Might even work.

Why dishonesty?
= Pretending to be beyond left-right labels.

that's because he wants to stress the point that both official right and left don't want to change so much about the rules of economy about liberalizations and labour laws, and so he can be labeled in that way, maybe liberal, socialdemocratic, statalist, populist, are better labels for the politics now, but always not exact.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on January 04, 2013, 10:34:26 AM
You can say what you want but there is literally no way in hell Monti can be labelled as anything other than right-wing.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 04, 2013, 03:51:59 PM
This is clearly the face of someone who will take the campaign trail by storm! The piazzas will be packed with delirious fans.

()


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: LastVoter on January 04, 2013, 03:57:32 PM
You can say what you want but there is literally no way in hell Monti can be labelled as anything other than right-wing.
Isn't the left fairly stable at ~35% in Italy, but never wins?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 04, 2013, 04:00:17 PM
This is clearly the face of someone who will take the campaign trail by storm! The piazzas will be packed with delirious fans.

()

The most overrated election this year. Focus on Austria instead. Much more

()

;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 04, 2013, 04:04:19 PM
Monti was on La7 today. Nothing particular, but it's really obvious a man like him, with all his qualities, has nothing to do in electoral politics.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 04, 2013, 04:06:53 PM
You can say what you want but there is literally no way in hell Monti can be labelled as anything other than right-wing.
Isn't the left fairly stable at ~35% in Italy, but never wins?

Hardly ever wins? Yes. ;)

However, the combined forces of the left are above 35% now. The main center-left party alone is at roughly 35% at this moment.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 04, 2013, 04:11:38 PM
Actually, the left won 2 of the last 4 elections. :P Obviously, winning 50% of the time against Berlusconi isn't exactly something to be proud of... And obviously, the left is unable to govern after winning election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 04, 2013, 04:13:59 PM
Most people who have won elections in Italy have looked that dull. Dull men sometimes poll well when there's a sense of crisis.


Well he's aggressively denying what his political project actually is (an attempt to return to 'business as usual' as it was before Tangentopoli; the political model of a dominant mildly conservative centrist party with a strong whiff of incense acting, around which other coalition partners rotate, re-position and trade places), which is pretty much the definition of dishonesty.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 04, 2013, 04:22:19 PM
Actually, the left won 2 of the last 4 elections. :P Obviously, winning 50% of the time against Berlusconi isn't exactly something to be proud of... And obviously, the left is unable to govern after winning election.

Two out of how many since the end of World War II? ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 04, 2013, 04:29:18 PM
Actually, the left won 2 of the last 4 elections. :P Obviously, winning 50% of the time against Berlusconi isn't exactly something to be proud of... And obviously, the left is unable to govern after winning election.

Two out of how many since the end of World War II? ;)

That's not fair. First Republic elections didn't really have "winners" or "losers".


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: LastVoter on January 04, 2013, 05:09:17 PM
You can say what you want but there is literally no way in hell Monti can be labelled as anything other than right-wing.
Isn't the left fairly stable at ~35% in Italy, but never wins?

Hardly ever wins? Yes. ;)

However, the combined forces of the left are above 35% now. The main center-left party alone is at roughly 35% at this moment.
So I am guessing center-right or coalition established social democracy in Italy then?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 04, 2013, 05:20:29 PM
Christian Democrats, of which there are right leaners and left leaners, ruled Italy with very brief interruption from 1946 - 1994. I said the center-left has only won two elections, not that they didn't have an impact. ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 04, 2013, 05:24:01 PM
Christian Democrats, of which there are right leaners and left leaners, ruled Italy with very brief interruption from 1946 - 1994. I said the center-left has only won two elections, not that they didn't have an impact. ;)

No, with no interruptions at all. They had to give up the PM post a couple of times towards the end, but that's all.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 04, 2013, 05:35:00 PM
Christian Democrats, of which there are right leaners and left leaners, ruled Italy with very brief interruption from 1946 - 1994. I said the center-left has only won two elections, not that they didn't have an impact. ;)

No, with no interruptions at all. They had to give up the PM post a couple of times towards the end, but that's all.

Well, the PM post was what I was referring to the when I said "brief interruption" but point taken.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 04, 2013, 06:53:54 PM
Not that you care about this, but anyways: I'm supporting Bersani and the PD (would be a SeL voter until today, but I think Bersani will make a good PM).

About Monti... poor guy, he's too smart and too boring to take part in a campaign. I hope we had someone like Monti in Spain, instead of Rajoy. But he's not a centrist. He's clearly a conservative, a sane conservative (not like Berlusconi or our PP politicians).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 04, 2013, 06:59:26 PM
Not that you care about this, but anyways: I'm supporting Bersani and the PD (would be a SeL voter until today, but I think Bersani will make a good PM).

A vote for SEL is a vote for Bersani for PM, though. ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on January 04, 2013, 07:53:44 PM
What's SEL done today to lose your vote, are you saying you'd vote for them if the election was today?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 04, 2013, 09:35:09 PM
I know a vote for SEL is a vote for Bersani, but I'm afraid he'll get less than 30%, and he needs a strong mandate in order not to call for elections in 2 or 3 years.
And it's also because if PD doesn't win big this time, it'll have effects here in Spain, too, with socialdemocracy being replaced by parties like IU in Spain, BE in Portugal... So, even if my favourite pol is Vendola, Bersani gets a B-, and I can vote for a B- :) Other thing that I hate is populism, and Bersani doesn't seem to be a populist (more in the Gordon Brown mold).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 04, 2013, 09:42:05 PM
You really think deciding between SEL and PD would affect his mandate? Italians, correct me if I'm wrong but I assume it's the size of the left coalition's win that matters for a mandate, not just PD's showing. Bersani will have other issues to worry about given the times the country is living in and pointing to PD's showing isn't going to matter all that much. And whether SEL gets 5% or 10%, they're still going to be able to hold Bersani hostage if they want during the government.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 04, 2013, 10:34:38 PM
You really think deciding between SEL and PD would affect his mandate? Italians, correct me if I'm wrong but I assume it's the size of the left coalition's win that matters for a mandate, not just PD's showing. Bersani will have other issues to worry about given the times the country is living in and pointing to PD's showing isn't going to matter all that much. And whether SEL gets 5% or 10%, they're still going to be able to hold Bersani hostage if they want during the government.

Yes, it'd affect his mandate (IMO) because SEL would have more power in his Government, so Bersani would be a "slave" of ecologism like Artur Mas in Catalonia has became the "slave" of leftist independentists. If PD has a good election night and SEL a not-so-good one, Bersani would have an easier time to govern, don't you think? He'd be able to execute his platform, with some concessions to SEL, but not becoming their slave :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on January 04, 2013, 10:37:36 PM
Fair enough - the rise of IU and BE, and SEL holding significant influence are something I'd wish for, so I can see why we wouldn't be voting in the same manner.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 04, 2013, 11:28:23 PM
I don't think it's really a matter of SEL having a "good or not so good" showing. They'll either land on the low end (around 5%) or the high end (around 10%) and I don't think their placement on either end will really affect PD's mandate (if there is one, of course).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 05, 2013, 05:45:11 AM
It seems SEL has settled at around 5% right now in most poll, hasn't it?

After some protests after releasing their candidates lists, they made some changes in Tuscany and Veneto. The top man in the Senate's list in Tuscany moves to Veneto's top spot. Number 2 was already running also in Calabria and she will run just there. So number 2 and 3 (football manager Ulivieri) will become 1 and 2. They were the winners of primaries and were relegated to unwinnable positions. SEL have 1 safe seat in Tuscany at the Senate and a second if they perform well.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 05, 2013, 08:02:41 AM
Lega basically made it clear today they'll stand behind Berlusconi. LOL Maroni, so much for the "new Lega"... ::) Now they deserve to get under 2%.


It seems SEL has settled at around 5% right now in most poll, hasn't it?

Between 5 and 6%, yes (sadly :().


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 05, 2013, 08:47:02 AM
Lega basically made it clear today they'll stand behind Berlusconi.
:(

So hoping they'd go alone. (Which might actually have been the right choice to maximize their own vote... but with the law being what it is...)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 05, 2013, 09:16:46 AM
Damn

Well, I just saw a friend tweet that Lega is polling at 3.9% and they'd be "out of parliament." Speaking to Lewis' point, could it be that their agreement to run with PdL will cost them a spot, not reaching the coalition-required threshold?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 05, 2013, 09:38:04 AM
Lega basically made it clear today they'll stand behind Berlusconi.
:(

So hoping they'd go alone. (Which might actually have been the right choice to maximize their own vote... but with the law being what it is...)

That's disgusting indeed. This party has raised hypocrisy into a full-fledged art.

Anyway, the coalition threshold is 2%, and even though they should, I have a hard time seeing Lega fall below that level. And even if they did, there is that utterly ridiculous "first party below the threshold" clause... The only way they could get shut out of parliament would be for Lega to get less votes than La Destra, with La Destra getting less than 2%... Very unlikely. :( Hopefully we'll see a 2-3 point drop from their current 5-6% standing, however.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 05, 2013, 09:52:43 AM
Yeah, that "first party below the threshold" clause is probably the most ridiculous requirement in any electoral system.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 05, 2013, 11:02:11 AM
It looks like PSI is negotiating some names to be put in Bersani's quota of candidates within PD lists. So I suppose they won't field their own list leaving Tabacci as the first (only) party below threshold in the CL.LOL!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 05, 2013, 12:31:43 PM
It looks like PSI is negotiating some names to be put in Bersani's quota of candidates within PD lists. So I suppose they won't field their own list leaving Tabacci as the first (only) party below threshold in the CL.LOL!

That's what happened to MpA in the right-wing coalition in 2008.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 05, 2013, 06:02:17 PM
There are so many quotes from Lega Nord politicians about how corrupt Berlusconi is and how they would never,ever ally with him or PdL again.
And they are all from 2012.

But is it really worth the time,when it's blatant that they are just a bunch of (racist) idiots?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RodPresident on January 05, 2013, 07:51:32 PM
Voting for SEL is to push Bersani to left and to prevent PD establishment into making new government as Monti II. If I were Italian, I'd vote for Grillo or Civic Revolution.
To Italian people: Who are the candidates to replace Napolitano as President of the Republic?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 05, 2013, 08:16:44 PM
To Rod's question: it was supposed to be Monti. I guess that has been kissed goodbye!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RodPresident on January 05, 2013, 09:12:09 PM
It will be an interesting election. Can be one elder statesman from the left, like Amato, Prodi or D'Alema? Or somebody outside of politics.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 05, 2013, 09:25:25 PM
Isn't D'Alema a more controversial figure though?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 06, 2013, 06:38:55 AM
I don't think Presidency will be seriously discussed until we have the result of parliamentary elections. If the left get an absolute majority in both houses, I doubt they'll be very warm on Monti after how he is (and will probably keep) slamming them for the campaign. If there's no clear majority, however, putting Monti there might be a way by PdL/PD to keep him away from Palazzo Chigi... if he accepts.

@Rod: M5S is literally a bunch of crazies. They're not by any means a serious voting options. Civic Revolution might be well meaning, but they'll be pretty useless.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 06, 2013, 08:36:54 AM
Voting for SEL is to push Bersani to left and to prevent PD establishment into making new government as Monti II. If I were Italian, I'd vote for Grillo or Civic Revolution.
To Italian people: Who are the candidates to replace Napolitano as President of the Republic?
Grillo?GRILLO?
Oh my...

Anyway PD's lists for the two Houses are already enough to the left.

As for the next President,the only real candidate was Monti,who I suppose is not viable anymore.
Prodi is respected enough,even though many people (in the center-right,obviously) just associate him to TAXES!!11!1!1!1
D'Alema is hated even within the center-left.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 06, 2013, 09:36:48 AM
Yeah, Prodi would make a fine President (he's certainly more fit for that job than for Prime Ministership).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 06, 2013, 11:50:26 AM
BTW, Lega is facing a new scandal, apparently dealing with the embezzlement of the funds allotted to their Senate group.

Hopefully this will make their participation to the right coalition nigh irrelevant. :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 06, 2013, 12:50:48 PM
So I guess the Lega leadership didn't care about aligning with Berlusconi after they called him corrupt; they'll just end up saying, "So are we! Thus, we are running together!"


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on January 06, 2013, 10:26:48 PM
Isn't accusing an Italian politician of being corrupt like just accusing him of being a politician anyway?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 07, 2013, 02:53:48 AM
Isn't accusing an Italian politician of being corrupt like just accusing him of being a politician anyway?
Nah.
Just go and check the number of condemned politicians between the various parties.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 07, 2013, 04:53:13 AM
PDL and Lega reached their coalition agreement. As for what the agreement is supposed to say, I will forget it as they have a good track record in backtracking saying we all misunderstood.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 07, 2013, 07:19:51 AM
Looking at the Senate

Berlusconi led Veltroni by 9.3% in 2008 at national level

The following regions were won by Berlusconi:

Sicily (25 seats available overall) 25.8% lead
Lombardy (49) 23.1%
Veneto (24) 22.8%
Campania (29) 17.2%
Friuli Venezia Giulia (7) 12.4%
Apulia (20) 11.7%
Piedmont (22): 9%
Calabria (10) 8%
Sardinia (Eight) 3.3%
Lazio (28) 2.8%
Abruzzo (7) 2.6%
Liguria (Eight) 1%

PD carried

Tuscany (18) 16.1
Emilia Romagna (22) 12.8%
Umbria (7) 10.8%
Marche (Eight) 8%
Basilicata (7) 7.6%

Molise having just 2 seats, it's likely to end up 1-1

Abroad, 2 seats in Europe (so another 1-1 tie), 2 seats in South America (PD finished third last time), 1 each in North America (PDL won by 1.2%) and  Oceania/Asia/Africa/Antartide (PD won by 1.7%).

Valle d'Aosta and Trentino still have FPTP constituencies. I read somewhere SVP made a pact with PD in Alto Adige.

A further problem for PD (other that the worst regions for them are the ones with more seats in play) is that if they lose Veneto, Lombardy and Sicily again, they won't get all the opposion seats but they will probably have to divide them with Grillo and Monti (they should get 8%).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on January 07, 2013, 07:25:28 AM
You can say what you want but there is literally no way in hell Monti can be labelled as anything other than right-wing.

If you identify liberal with right-wing, well, but it seems that in 2013 we don't use this kind of labels for european liberals. very reasonable


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 07, 2013, 07:53:16 AM
The Lega needs to die slowly and painfully.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 07, 2013, 07:59:17 AM
Andrea's analysis actually confirms that Berlusconi's win in 2008 was anything but a landslide...4 regions within 3.3%,which would have dramatically changed the composition of the Senate.

Anyway,the campaign will now be all around the Senate,at least for PD. There is no way that Berlusconi will get close enough at a national level,his only hope is that his southern crooks (Grande Sud,one of the parties with the higher number of criminals in history) hand him Sicilia and Calabria,and that Lega helps him with Lombardia and Veneto.
In that case,as Andrea pointed out, the fact that the opposition seats would have to be split amongst PD,Grillo and Monti would make a PD majority in the Senate impossible,and only God knows what would happen then.


Final note: there are talks of a "non-aggression pact" between PD and Ingroia's Movement in the Senate race,at least in the battleground regions.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 07, 2013, 10:10:03 AM
You guys might not be able to but would anyone care to handicap the North/Central American race in the Camera? I know PD and PdL each got a seat last time. I don't know who is running for PD or the other parties though I'll be filled in soon... A heads up by anyone (Andrea?) would be appreciated though. :)

I'm going to be helping the PdL incumbent (who actually lives ten minutes away from me). He's a pretty well known figure in the Italian-American community (specifically in Philly where he won by seven points. He carried the U.S. and the overall constituency by three points) so that should be a big help but Italians living abroad and dual citizens will obviously have other issues on their mind as well.

It will be a very interesting experience to be involved in a foreign campaign while in the U.S. His campaign kickoff is actually a month from today in my neighborhood. That ought to be something. I might not be too hot on the abroad seats in principle but I do love that Italy has it. It makes it more interesting to observe and gives me a chance to witness and engage in the campaign first hand. :)


Title: Breaking: Berlusconi steps down, Alfano running for PM
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 07, 2013, 04:53:20 PM
I'm getting word that Berlusconi is (again) stepping aside and Alfano will be the center-right's candidate for Prime Minister though it looks like Maroni wants Tremonti as the candidate.

Berlusconi is supposedly the "coalition leader" but Alfano will be the candidate for Prime Minister. What a campaign.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on January 07, 2013, 06:17:16 PM
Maybe that was Lega's terms for joining the coalition.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 07, 2013, 06:18:53 PM
Maybe that was Lega's terms for joining the coalition.

It had to be but, as far as I can understand, they're still pushing for Tremonti as the Prime Minister candidate while it seems like Alfano is getting the nod.


Title: Re: Breaking: Berlusconi steps down, Alfano running for PM
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 07, 2013, 06:58:04 PM
I'm getting word that Berlusconi is (again) stepping aside and Alfano will be the center-right's candidate for Prime Minister though it looks like Maroni wants Tremonti as the candidate.

Berlusconi is supposedly the "coalition leader" but Alfano will be the candidate for Prime Minister. What a campaign.

Wow.

Phil, this Alfano character is from the Mezzogiorno, right? How much do you know about him?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 07, 2013, 07:00:02 PM
Crazy election just became even crazier.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 07, 2013, 07:02:50 PM
He's from Sicily. He was elected in 2001 and was Berlusconi's Justice Minister during his final term. He became party leader when Berlusconi resigned in 2011.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 07, 2013, 07:09:59 PM
He's from Sicily... and was Berlusconi's Justice Minister

I'm saying nothing.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: DC Al Fine on January 07, 2013, 08:58:32 PM
He's from Sicily. He was elected in 2001 and was Berlusconi's Justice Minister during his final term. He became party leader when Berlusconi resigned in 2011.

Sounds promising ::)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 07, 2013, 11:05:33 PM
...I really hope the last comment was just a response to him being Berlusconi's Justice Minister and not blatantly Anti Sicilian...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Vosem on January 07, 2013, 11:07:34 PM
All the stability of Israel with all the honesty of the Ukraine. This is great!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 07, 2013, 11:25:06 PM
I'm reading that part of this deal between PdL and the Traitors is PdL support for Maroni when he runs for President of Lombardy in the special regional election. I wonder how far ahead PD is in that one because handing over the largest region to the leader of Lega Nord would be so very, very sad.

Oh, Berlusconi is also looking to become Finance Minister instead of Prime Minister if the center-right wins.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 08, 2013, 02:52:50 AM
Alfano,also known as THE PUPPET.


He would just be the new Medvedev.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 08, 2013, 04:10:42 AM
Oh, Berlusconi is also looking to become Finance Minister instead of Prime Minister if the center-right wins.

Because that's so much more comforting.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 08, 2013, 05:04:34 AM
Are we trusting Berlusconi stepping aside? How many times did he say it?

In his reformist spirit, Monti promises to reform the taxes he created and to lower some taxes. You see we are in the middle of an election campaign.

It would be nice if PD manages to talk about something that it's not their candidates' lists.
And if they can keep Vendola silent for 2 more months.


I'm reading that part of this deal between PdL and the Traitors is PdL support for Maroni when he runs for President of Lombardy in the special regional election. I wonder how far ahead PD is in that one because handing over the largest region to the leader of Lega Nord would be so very, very sad.

PdL was still candidate-less in Lombardy anyway.
Albertini (former Mayor of Milan) is running alone (now with UDC/Monti's support) taking some votes from PDL. PD has a good candidate. He would have won with all the splits on the right.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 08, 2013, 06:23:43 AM
Well,even now,in Lombardy the last poll showed a tie between Ambrosoli (center-left) and Maroni (LN+PDL),with Albertini (center) a bit behind.
I think it'll end up like in Sicily,also because Ambrosoli is not someone who should scare away "moderates",whereas Albertini has been Mayor of Milan for Forza Italia and was also elected with Forza Italia to the European Parliament,so most of his votes will come from the right.


And one should never forget how the Formigoni-era ended.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 08, 2013, 06:29:13 AM
Also,about the issues:

Berlusconi said that the left is envious of the rich,while he would eliminate the IMU on his first day as PM (or whatever he'll be),and he would lower taxes every year.

This is populism at such a pure state that it's almost funny.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Diouf on January 08, 2013, 07:13:38 AM
Finally some regional polls:

Lombardia: Berlusconi coalition 32,5 %, Bersani coalition 32,5 %, Monti coalition 16,3 %, M5S 11,5 %, Ingroia coalition 5,6 %

Campania: Bersani 30,5 %, Berlusconi 28,5 %, Monti 14,2 %, M5S 13,0 %, Ingroia 11,2 %

Lazio: Bersani 39,5 %, Berlusconi 21,6 %, Monti 16,5 %, M5S 14,0 %, Ingroia 6,6 %

Piemonte: Bersani 37,5 %, Berlusconi 25,1 %, Monti 16,8 %, M5S 12,5 %, Ingroia 7,0 %

Sicilia: Berlusconi 27,0 %, Bersani 22,9 %, M5S 19,8 %, Monti 16,2 %, Ingroia 11,0 %


Very high numbers for Ingroia and the Rivoluzione Civile coalition compared to the national polls

From Ipsos/Sole24Ore: http://www.ilsole24ore.com/pdf2010/SoleOnLine5/_Oggetti_Correlati/Documenti/Notizie/2013/01/previsioni-senato.pdf?uuid=c2b52c90-597e-11e2-bfa2-c338601f7959


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 08, 2013, 09:11:52 AM
Thanks for the figures. They confirm Lombardy is the one too watch.
Lazio and Piemonte looks good for PD. Campania is too close (I suppose Ingroia is benefiting from De Magistris).

However, you are right about Civic Revolution being high compared to national polls (more than 5% in Lombardy would mean they are going to pass the 4% threshold at the House while all national polls put them below it IIRC).



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 08, 2013, 09:20:11 AM
So is RC running as a single list? That's good.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 08, 2013, 09:38:37 AM
Whoa. I didn't expect Campania to be that close. Civic Revolution/De Magistris is surely to blame/thank there. I'm also surprised Sicily is still so strong for PdL. Lazio, meanwhile, is a total disaster. What's the deal with Piedmont?

Also,about the issues:

Berlusconi said that the left is envious of the rich,while he would eliminate the IMU on his first day as PM (or whatever he'll be),and he would lower taxes every year.

This is populism at such a pure state that it's almost funny.

And he's promising legal recognition of gay couples now! Not sure how many believe that.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 08, 2013, 10:25:44 AM
...I really hope the last comment was just a response to him being Berlusconi's Justice Minister and not blatantly Anti Sicilian...

It's possible that I was just trolling you. It has been known over the issue of inherent Sicilian criminality.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 08, 2013, 10:31:37 AM
...I really hope the last comment was just a response to him being Berlusconi's Justice Minister and not blatantly Anti Sicilian...

It's possible that I was just trolling you. It has been known over the issue of inherent Sicilian criminality.
It's just inherent to Sicilian Conservatism post 1990.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 08, 2013, 10:34:15 AM
...I really hope the last comment was just a response to him being Berlusconi's Justice Minister and not blatantly Anti Sicilian...

It's possible that I was just trolling you. It has been known over the issue of inherent Sicilian criminality.

I know you were. It's something I come to expect and pay no mind to. My post was for DC Fine.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 08, 2013, 10:41:52 AM
Great numbers for Lazio and Piemonte...honestly I thought my region (Lazio) would have been closer,as it usually is,but what Polverini did as Governor must have had an effect not only on the next regional vote.

At the same time,Ingroia is really,really damaging in Sicily and Campania. I hope that as the campaign goes on,and the enthusiasm for the "new" candidate goes down,SeL will manage to get a good % of that vote.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 08, 2013, 10:50:16 AM
PD and M5S continue to slowly drop in polls...

http://www.scenaripolitici.com/2013/01/sondaggio-ipr-pd-31-pdl-17-m5s-13.html (http://www.scenaripolitici.com/2013/01/sondaggio-ipr-pd-31-pdl-17-m5s-13.html)

Italia. Bene Comune. - 38% (PD down to 31%)
Center-Right - 27%
Agenda Monti per l'Italia - 16%
M5S - 13%
RC - 2%
FD (Stop the Decline) - 1%
Others - 3%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zuza on January 08, 2013, 11:30:28 AM
What is the Amnistia Giustizia Liberta?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: palandio on January 08, 2013, 11:58:22 AM
"Amnistia Giustizia Libertà" is the Radical Party (which in the past also ran under the names "Lista Pannella" and "Lista Bonino" after its two main leaders).

The deciding region in the Senate could become Sicily.
Both big alliances are doing everything to win there and new developments occur every day:
The IBC in Sicily will probably run not only with the PD, SEL and CD ("Democratic Center") lists, but also with a Socialist list and with a "megaphone" list. (The megaphone was the symbol for a list that supported center-left governor candidate Rosario Crocetta in the regional elections.)
The Center-right will run an armada of lists.
Micchiché with his "Grande Sud" (a PdL split-off), who in the regional elections ran separately, will support the center-right.
Most of his counsillors have left his party for "Sicilian Voice" under a guy with the nickname "Mister Preferenze" that seems to own a large vote package. And "Sicilian Voice" could run candidates in the Megaphone list, i.e. support the IBC.
Ex-governor Lombardo with his MPA-PdS, who in 2008 ran with Berlusconi, later was part of the center pole and who in the regional elections ran together with Micciché, could end up supporting CD, i.e. the IBC. At least this is what Loiero wants. (Loiero is some Calabrian ex-governor, who has been in many parties and now in the MPA-PdS.)

Urrrgh! Doesn't the center-left remember their experience with Mastella?
Micciché, Lombardo, Mister Preferenze etc. are just...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 08, 2013, 12:38:00 PM
There's an official government website listing all of the polls. Do groups have to be registered with the government to publish polls? I assume this is done to make sure they comply with the (silly) poll ban a week or two before the election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 08, 2013, 01:23:19 PM

Bascially.

Not that much though. If 1 is a normal election, and 100 is the level of craziness of, say, 1994, this election went from 1000 to 1050 maybe.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 08, 2013, 01:28:13 PM

Bascially.

Not that much though. If 1 is a normal election, and 100 is the level of craziness of, say, 1994, this election went from 1000 to 1050 maybe.

This election is only as crazy as 1994 if Grillo wins (because, basically, that's what happened in 1994).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 08, 2013, 04:16:52 PM
The PD candidates lists

House
http://www.partitodemocratico.it/Allegati/liste-candidati-camera.pdf

Senate
http://www.partitodemocratico.it/Allegati/liste-senato.pdf

The missing spots were indicated in the early drafted version as "National, Other Parties". So I suppose they are where the Socialist names and I don't know who (they tell me someone from Piemonte's I Moderati may get the Piemonte spot) will be fitted in

No news for Italians Abroad's candidates


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 08, 2013, 05:38:26 PM
No news for Italians Abroad's candidates


I had to scroll through the list twice to make sure I wasn't missing something. I assume the PD incumbent in the Camera for North/Central America is running again.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 08, 2013, 05:53:01 PM

Bascially.

Not that much though. If 1 is a normal election, and 100 is the level of craziness of, say, 1994, this election went from 1000 to 1050 maybe.

This election is only as crazy as 1994 if Grillo wins (because, basically, that's what happened in 1994).

2013 is crazy in a different way than 1994, but not necessarily less (though I admit I was exaggerating a bit).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 09, 2013, 06:53:24 AM
The abroad candidates for the Camera (House of Representatives) don't count for anything, since there whoever gets a majority,even of one vote,automatically gets 55% of the deputies.

They DO count instead for the Senate,since there any majority will be semi-razor-thin.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 09, 2013, 06:55:45 AM
"Amnistia Giustizia Libertà" is the Radical Party (which in the past also ran under the names "Lista Pannella" and "Lista Bonino" after its two main leaders).

The deciding region in the Senate could become Sicily.
Both big alliances are doing everything to win there and new developments occur every day:
The IBC in Sicily will probably run not only with the PD, SEL and CD ("Democratic Center") lists, but also with a Socialist list and with a "megaphone" list. (The megaphone was the symbol for a list that supported center-left governor candidate Rosario Crocetta in the regional elections.)
The Center-right will run an armada of lists.
Micchiché with his "Grande Sud" (a PdL split-off), who in the regional elections ran separately, will support the center-right.
Most of his counsillors have left his party for "Sicilian Voice" under a guy with the nickname "Mister Preferenze" that seems to own a large vote package. And "Sicilian Voice" could run candidates in the Megaphone list, i.e. support the IBC.
Ex-governor Lombardo with his MPA-PdS, who in 2008 ran with Berlusconi, later was part of the center pole and who in the regional elections ran together with Micciché, could end up supporting CD, i.e. the IBC. At least this is what Loiero wants. (Loiero is some Calabrian ex-governor, who has been in many parties and now in the MPA-PdS.)

Urrrgh! Doesn't the center-left remember their experience with Mastella?
Micciché, Lombardo, Mister Preferenze etc. are just...

There is no way Lombardo will run with the center-left (that is,IBC).

Always remember that Loiero left PD because he had been a total failure as a governor.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 09, 2013, 09:28:45 AM
IPSOS poll presented last night during Ballarò

House

Bersani coalition 39.8%
Berlusconi coalition 23.1%
Monti coalition 17.6
Grillo 12.5%
Ingroia 5.5%

Senate

Bersani coalition 40.3
Berlusconi 23.8
Monti 16.6
Grillo 12.2
Ingroia 5.1

The Civic Revolution's score ties with their regional polls figures published by Sole 24 Ore 2 days ago.

No news for Italians Abroad's candidates


I had to scroll through the list twice to make sure I wasn't missing something. I assume the PD incumbent in the Camera for North/Central America is running again.

If you are interested, this are Grillo's candidates for North/Central America

House: Sandro Sessarego (researcger at University of Wisconsin), Eugenio Daviso (researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Michele Taverna (President and Chief Executive Officer, MonteCristo International LLC); Roberto Berritta (Director of Engineering for Brooks Stevens, Inc).

Senate:  Simone Lolli (researcher at NASA) Arturo Busca (director at DHL Express)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 09, 2013, 09:54:17 AM
I don't know that I'm really concerned with M5S' showing here. ;)  If Italians abroad are serious enough to go out of their way to vote, they probably won't be voting for a joke party. Glad to see Grillo is down to 12% back in Italy though. As expected.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 09, 2013, 09:57:02 AM
I don't know that I'm really concerned with M5S' showing here. ;)  If Italians abroad are serious enough to go out of their way to vote, they probably won't be voting for a joke party.
Last I checked Berlusconi did win some abroad seats.

As long as the PD coalition is expected to win handily, 4% should not be that much of a hurdle for CR.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 09, 2013, 10:10:05 AM
I don't know that I'm really concerned with M5S' showing here. ;)  If Italians abroad are serious enough to go out of their way to vote, they probably won't be voting for a joke party.
Last I checked Berlusconi did win some abroad seats.


:P

My real concern is for one Camera seat in North/Central America. Because there are two seats, it should end up 1-1.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 09, 2013, 01:38:36 PM
Lewis, are you really supporting Rivoluzione Civile? They are basically a staler version of SEL, and contrary to SEL they would be a wasted vote for the left coalition (ergo, a vote for Berlusconi).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 09, 2013, 01:45:57 PM
PD is (probably) going to win anyways, and I'm not one to easily forgive the extortion attempt of 2008. Big artificial centre-"left" parties can go hang unless they're really, really needed to prevent the so much worse.
Which obviously means I also doubt SEL's judgment and/or integrity. :P



On a somewhat related question; are there any stated positions on what everyone wants to do with the election law?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 09, 2013, 02:01:58 PM
PD is (probably) going to win anyways, and I'm not one to easily forgive the extortion attempt of 2008. Big artificial centre-"left" parties can go hang unless they're really, really needed to prevent the so much worse.
Which obviously means I also doubt SEL's judgment and/or integrity. :P

1. This is Italy, so never EVER say "X is going to win anyways".
2. I of course fully share your contempt for PD, but they are still worth voting for considering the alternatives.
3. SEL's decision makes perfect sense, both in terms of electoral strategy (thresholds and all), and in terms of actual political influence (because being inside a governing coalition allows you to have leverage on policy, something RC won't have in any case).
4. Ingroia is such a boring person. He's basically the hybrid of a less crazy Grillo and a less inspiring/charismatic Vendola. And I can certify, he's really painful to listen to, worse than Bersani and not so much better than Monti.


Quote
On a somewhat related question; are there any stated positions on what everyone wants to do with the election law?

PD wants a French system (two-round single member), Renzi a little more emphatically so than Bersani, but both support it unequivocally. The Monti coalition says the current law sucks but hasn't said anything about what they want to do instead. My bet is that they'd love a "German" system (which would make it impossible for a coalition to rule alone). As for PdL, they have been very good at bullsh*tting about this for the past year or so, and what they would do is anyone's guess.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 09, 2013, 02:04:13 PM
Thanks for the help especially with the jinxing, Lewis! :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 10, 2013, 03:37:52 AM
If Italians abroad are serious enough to go out of their way to vote, they probably won't be voting for a joke party.

That's the end of PdL then.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 10, 2013, 07:42:25 AM
3. SEL's decision makes perfect sense, both in terms of electoral strategy (thresholds and all), and in terms of actual political influence (because being inside a governing coalition allows you to have leverage on policy, something RC won't have in any case).
Maybe Berlusconi can hold PD-SEL *just* short of a Senate majority. :D
Quote
4. Ingroia is such a boring person. He's basically the hybrid of a less crazy Grillo and a less inspiring/charismatic Vendola. And I can certify, he's really painful to listen to, worse than Bersani and not so much better than Monti.
Who picked him as leaderface and why? I freely admit I hadn't followed developments since the last election.


Quote
Quote
On a somewhat related question; are there any stated positions on what everyone wants to do with the election law?

PD wants a French system (two-round single member), Renzi a little more emphatically so than Bersani, but both support it unequivocally. The Monti coalition says the current law sucks but hasn't said anything about what they want to do instead. My bet is that they'd love a "German" system (which would make it impossible for a coalition to rule alone). As for PdL, they have been very good at bullsh*tting about this for the past year or so, and what they would do is anyone's guess.
SEL? RC? Does Beppe still want a return to personalized PR, I dimly recall him talking about how it's still actually in the Constitution - this being before he even founded his party?

Thanks for the help especially with the jinxing, Lewis! :D
I did say "probably". Obviously if things get real close again I'll hold my nose and support SEL. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 10, 2013, 08:02:54 AM
Maybe Berlusconi can hold PD-SEL *just* short of a Senate majority. :D

Is it really something to wish for? You know I'm not a big fan of "stability" for stability's sake, but Italy really desperately needs some.


Quote
Who picked him as leaderface and why? I freely admit I hadn't followed developments since the last election.

From what I've understood, he took on his own the decision to "step down into politics" ("scendere in politica", as we say following Berlusconi's word), and then a myriad of parties which were in electoral dire straits decided to make him their standard-bearer, probably for the sole reason that he was a new face.


Quote
SEL? RC? Does Beppe still want a return to personalized PR, I dimly recall him talking about how it's still actually in the Constitution - this being before he even founded his party?

I haven't heard anything specific from SEL and RC, but I guess they'd by far prefer some PR of sorts, like the other smaller parties (for the same reasons PD supports single-member).

As for M5S, they officially don't want elections at all. They're all about "direct democracy", and will find a reason to grumble about whatever electoral reform is done.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 10, 2013, 08:09:25 AM
they will find a reason to grumble about whatever electoral reform is done.
And they won't have to look hard, it'll be elephant-sized.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 10, 2013, 08:32:11 AM
they will find a reason to grumble about whatever electoral reform is done.
And they won't have to look hard, it'll be elephant-sized.

True, true, but they even whined about a decree that divided by four the number of citizen signatures needed to run a list for these elections (effectively making their life much easier).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 10, 2013, 09:58:49 AM
Tonight Berlusconi will be the guest at Santoro's show on La7.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 10, 2013, 10:02:43 AM
Tonight Berlusconi will be the guest at Santoro's show on La7.

I'm sure not gonna miss that one. There's gonna be blood. :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 10, 2013, 10:52:28 AM
Tonight Berlusconi will be the guest at Santoro's show on La7.

Isn't that the guy that had some big feud (on-going feud, I guess) with Silvio years ago?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on January 10, 2013, 11:01:44 AM
Antonio, you know me, you know I'm on the left side of the Front de gauche here in France, but that I would never vote for the NPA, and besides I profoundly and utterly despise the PD. So I'll let you pick my vote : SEL or RC ? I would be leaning RC right now for just exactly the same reasons as Lewis (actually I was about to write a post pretty much like his own).

So what shall it be ? And justify it ! ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 10, 2013, 11:06:17 AM
Antonio, you know me, you know I'm on the left side of the Front de gauche here in France, but that I would never vote for the NPA, and besides I profoundly and utterly despise the PD. So I'll let you pick my vote : SEL or RC ? I would be leaning RC right now for just exactly the same reasons as Lewis (actually I was about to write a post pretty much like his own).

So what shall it be ? And justify it ! ;)
We clearly need an M5S supporter to complete the triumvirate of supporters of non joke options. :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 10, 2013, 11:14:23 AM
Antonio, you know me, you know I'm on the left side of the Front de gauche here in France, but that I would never vote for the NPA, and besides I profoundly and utterly despise the PD. So I'll let you pick my vote : SEL or RC ? I would be leaning RC right now for just exactly the same reasons as Lewis (actually I was about to write a post pretty much like his own).

So what shall it be ? And justify it ! ;)

I can't really say much more than what I've already said to Lewis. There's one thing I must add, though: Vendola is a fascinating politician. It's a shame you don't know Italian, but anyone who does should look up for some of his speeches. They are absolutely beautiful. It's not just political posturing, beautiful promises and the usual stuff, there is something that there has not been in Western politics for a long while: thought. Vendola manages to eloquently combine the moving lyrism of his rhetoric with a deep ideological reflection about the fundamental roots of modern issues. He never appeals to the basic instincts of a crowd, never engages into easy (and effective) populism, but always tries to elevate the debate and speak to the mind of people. Honestly, there are not many politicians I have more respect for than Vendola. He might even be unique. My vote for SEL, whose platform is actually a tad too radical for my tastes, is above all a personal vote for Vendola (it's also a protest vote against the PD, of course).

I don't think Ingroia is a bad guy, but he's supported by a bunch of hacks like the Rifondazione guys, he brings nothing particularly new or interesting to the political stage, and, should I remind you, it's a spoiled vote for the left.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on January 10, 2013, 12:32:41 PM
Another argument for SEL is of course that of electoral reform. The larger share of the Bersani-Coalition vote that SEL gets, the smaller the risk that PD has their own majority and push through a non-PR election system.*

*Of course this is only if you support Proportional Representation.     


Title: Center-right significantly narrows gap in Italy.
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 10, 2013, 12:50:15 PM
The Italian election Wiki page has finally made their poll table easy to read and the January 10th poll from Euromedia stands out...

IBC - 39%
Center-right - 31%
M5S - 12%
AMI - 11%
RC - 4%
Others - 4%


;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on January 10, 2013, 01:39:46 PM
Another argument for SEL is of course that of electoral reform. The larger share of the Bersani-Coalition vote that SEL gets, the smaller the risk that PD has their own majority and push through a non-PR election system.*

*Of course this is only if you support Proportional Representation.     

I'd vote SEL anyway (as I've said in the past), but this would be a powerful argument for me.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 10, 2013, 03:53:17 PM
Since you guys are discussing about which party you support, why don't you go and vote here? ;) https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=167558.0


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 10, 2013, 05:35:02 PM
What happened in this Berlusconi-Santoro interview? I saw one friend (a Berlusconi critic) say something like Santoro and two others that questioned Silvio allowed themselves to get beat up. Even a sports fan page I "like" on Facebook posted about the interview as an "off topic" subject.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 10, 2013, 05:47:49 PM
In the past decade, Santoro's main achievement has probably been helping Berlusconi to gain votes :-(
At least he isn't giving him the excuse to act too much as a victim this time.
Silvio was on top of his form.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 10, 2013, 06:54:08 PM
I've heard from one PD supporter - one! - that Silvio lost. Looks like the old man is back at it.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Beet on January 10, 2013, 07:07:21 PM
This election is certainly worrying. I don't know how anyone can still support Berlusconi after all his scandals, and years of misrule. On the other hand, it's true that while the Draghi/Monti regime has stabilized the eurozone situation financially, economically Italy continues to struggle and the Draghi/Monti regime does not offer sufficient hope for growth in the short term. This is a real dilemma, but it would be upsetting to see Berlusconi get back in in any case.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 10, 2013, 07:23:49 PM
Setting aside from political stuff...

Best.
Show.
Ever!


The word "epic" is so often misused that it's important to point out when it is actually approriate. What happened was epic in every possible way. Drama, action, twists, tension, flame wars, fun... Every Italian-speaker should rush to go watch this, because it's more entertaining than the most epic action movie.


In terms of "who won", Berlusconi might have been as good as he wanted (and yes, I admit he was very skillful and energized), but nobody can compete with the determination and wit of Santoro and the intelligence and irony of Travaglio. Yes, Berlusconi was preety good, but not enough to twist the fundamental truth of what they said.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 11, 2013, 02:39:54 AM
The Italian election Wiki page has finally made their poll table easy to read and the January 10th poll from Euromedia stands out...

IBC - 39%
Center-right - 31%
M5S - 12%
AMI - 11%
RC - 4%
Others - 4%


;)

Euromedia=Berlusconi,don't get wet.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 11, 2013, 02:40:30 AM
I've heard from one PD supporter - one! - that Silvio lost. Looks like the old man is back at it.

Huh,weren't you anti-Berlusconi just a few months ago?
Thank God people like you can't vote.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 11, 2013, 06:09:52 AM
Another argument for SEL is of course that of electoral reform. The larger share of the Bersani-Coalition vote that SEL gets, the smaller the risk that PD has their own majority and push through a non-PR election system.*

*Of course this is only if you support Proportional Representation.     
That's an interesting angle I hadn't thought of, yeah.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 11, 2013, 06:52:38 AM
Another argument for SEL is of course that of electoral reform. The larger share of the Bersani-Coalition vote that SEL gets, the smaller the risk that PD has their own majority and push through a non-PR election system.*

*Of course this is only if you support Proportional Representation.     
That's an interesting angle I hadn't thought of, yeah.

PD won't win an absolute majority anyway. There aren't many outcomes you can safely exclude, but you can probably exclude this one.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 11, 2013, 07:49:24 AM
Another argument for SEL is of course that of electoral reform. The larger share of the Bersani-Coalition vote that SEL gets, the smaller the risk that PD has their own majority and push through a non-PR election system.*

*Of course this is only if you support Proportional Representation.     
That's an interesting angle I hadn't thought of, yeah.

PD won't win an absolute majority anyway. There aren't many outcomes you can safely exclude, but you can probably exclude this one.
Huh? If the coalition wins it gets 54% of the seats, even if it wins with 33% of the vote. If PD gets ~92% of the coalition votes, it gets a majority of the seats, even if that's on 30% of the vote, no?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 11, 2013, 08:15:05 AM
Another argument for SEL is of course that of electoral reform. The larger share of the Bersani-Coalition vote that SEL gets, the smaller the risk that PD has their own majority and push through a non-PR election system.*

*Of course this is only if you support Proportional Representation.     
That's an interesting angle I hadn't thought of, yeah.

PD won't win an absolute majority anyway. There aren't many outcomes you can safely exclude, but you can probably exclude this one.
Huh? If the coalition wins it gets 54% of the seats, even if it wins with 33% of the vote. If PD gets ~92% of the coalition votes, it gets a majority of the seats, even if that's on 30% of the vote, no?

92.9% of the coalition vote, yes (316/340). Assuming PD takes 35% (a very generous assumption - they're lucky if they get over 30), that would mean that all the other parties in the left coalition that are represented (probably, SEL plus one of PSI or CD) would have to win less than 2.66% of the vote. That's not going to happen.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 11, 2013, 08:41:17 AM
'twould take a mass bleeding specifically from SEL to RC. So yeah, I guess you're right. Maybe if they magically switched lead personnel. :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 11, 2013, 08:44:16 AM
'twould take a mass bleeding specifically from SEL to RC. So yeah, I guess you're right. Maybe if they magically switched lead personnel. :)

Glad to see you recognize that. :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on January 11, 2013, 10:25:42 AM
What happened in this Berlusconi-Santoro interview? I saw one friend (a Berlusconi critic) say something like Santoro and two others that questioned Silvio allowed themselves to get beat up. Even a sports fan page I "like" on Facebook posted about the interview as an "off topic" subject.

Santoro had full interest in supprting a Berlusconi's comeback among center-right voters, to fight Monti's side. Santoro and BErlusconi have even many similar opinions about Europe, and share same anti-austerity bullsh**t feelings


Title: Re: Center-right significantly narrows gap in Italy.
Post by: Iannis on January 11, 2013, 10:31:29 AM
The Italian election Wiki page has finally made their poll table easy to read and the January 10th poll from Euromedia stands out...

IBC - 39%
Center-right - 31%
M5S - 12%
AMI - 11%
RC - 4%
Others - 4%


;)


Mmmh Center-right very high and AMI too low, no poll in Italy show these results.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 11, 2013, 10:39:38 AM
I've heard from one PD supporter - one! - that Silvio lost. Looks like the old man is back at it.

Huh,weren't you anti-Berlusconi just a few months ago?
Thank God people like you can't vote.

So people that aren't Berlusconi fans aren't allowed to say he had a good performance? Ok.  ::)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 11, 2013, 11:42:24 AM
Nine million watched Berlusconi last night.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 11, 2013, 01:58:01 PM
PD, SEL and PSI will run joint lists in Italians Abroad constituencies.
In South America they are allied with AISA (Pallaro.. just go down the memory lane to 2006-08)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 11, 2013, 02:49:26 PM
Wasn't that assumed? I'm pretty sure both sides did that in 2008.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 11, 2013, 03:36:41 PM
He had a good performance,that's for sure.
It wasn't a talk show,it was a circus,since Santoro allowed him to do and say whatever he wanted.
And Berlusconi fits perfectly well in that kind of environment.

In these next weeks anyway all he can do is revitalize his old base (that is,those who aren't dead yet - considering he does well amongst those 70+yo).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 11, 2013, 03:50:16 PM
Wasn't that assumed? I'm pretty sure both sides did that in 2008.

I suppose it was a given in FPTP constituencies. I didn't even consider PSI. I thought SEL could have run in Europe multi members constituencies (especially at the House).
As they put out a press release today to announce the joint list, I just posted it.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 11, 2013, 04:52:29 PM
It's fun to watch both sides dismiss Monti as irrelevant...


Angelino Alfano

Il nostro avversario non è Monti, lui si troverà come nei mondiali a disputare una finale per il terzo e quarto posto. La finale vera è tra Berlusconi e Bersani


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 11, 2013, 05:35:00 PM
That seems to be true according to polls...

I'd really like to see Monti displace Berlusconi, since he perfectly represents what honest, well-meaning and serious right-wing politician would be like. However, it's become pretty clear it's not going to happen. Italian right-wingers have been brainwashed for the last 20 years, and they'd follow Berlusconi everywhere even if he was found with 50 dead (and underage) boys.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 11, 2013, 05:40:04 PM
Monti's parliamentary candidates at the House:

http://www.repubblica.it/politica/2013/01/11/news/liste_monti-50362340/


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 12, 2013, 08:29:37 AM
Grillo got epically trolled with list symbols.


Official M5S symbol:
()


Symbol officially registered by a M5S dissident before the official M5S could register theirs:
()


And now he's threatening to boycott the election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 12, 2013, 10:00:51 AM
I doubt fake lists (there also fake version of Monti lists and Civic Revolution) will get enough real signatures to run in the end.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 12, 2013, 12:18:43 PM
Boycotting the election? Great! :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 13, 2013, 02:37:10 AM
This happens every single election,and now Grillo threatens to boycott the election...what a clown.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 13, 2013, 05:52:39 AM
Ispo poll for Corriere regarding Lombardy senate race:

Berlusconi coalition 35.7 (PdL 19.5 Lega 13.9% La Destra 1.4)
Bersani 32.3% (PD 29.4 SEL 2.5)
Monti 14.7%
Grillo 10.8%
Ingroia 4.1%

Regional elections

Maroni 40.7%
Ambrosoli 37.9%
Albertini 10.6%
Carcano (M5S) 9.8%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: palandio on January 13, 2013, 09:55:13 AM
CDX: For the Chamber of Deputies there will be the lists
PDL
Lega Nord
Fratelli d'Italia
La Destra
Grande Sud/MPA
Pensioneers
Intesa Popolare
Moderati Italiani in Rivoluzione

Of these only PDL, Lega Nord and probably FdI and maybe LD will poll over 2%.
Maybe in the South there will be some "Progetto Sud" list which also contains Grande Sud ed MPA.
Roma Caput Mundi was right when he said that Lombardo and his MPA won't run with the IBC.
Though Loiero (the Sicilian ex-governor) will support the IBC, leaving MPA.

The IBC will run the lists
PD
SEL
CD (Centro Democratico)

Additionally there will be the Socialist list for the Senate elections in Calabria, Campania and Lazio.
There will be the "Megaphone" list in Sicily.
The South Tyrolean People's party will run with the IBC in Trentino-Alto Adige (Alto Adige = South Tyrol).
"Mister Preferenze" Cimino and his "Sicilian Voice" may run with the CD.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 13, 2013, 10:29:03 AM

...isn't that the point? :P

Regional elections

Maroni 40.7%
Ambrosoli 37.9%
Albertini 10.6%
Carcano (M5S) 9.8%

:(


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 13, 2013, 01:34:54 PM

"Revolutionary moderates"...

...



Seriously?....



...like in, seriously?

Aaaaaaaand we have a winner for the silliest list name of the election! :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 13, 2013, 02:38:45 PM
I read it elsewhere as "Moderates in the Revolution" though it hit me at first as "Moderate Revolutionaries," too. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: doktorb on January 13, 2013, 02:47:48 PM
We're going to have a revolution! And it'll be the damnest most moderate revolution this country has ever seen!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 13, 2013, 02:50:32 PM
I read it elsewhere as "Moderates in the Revolution" though it hit me at first as "Moderate Revolutionaries," too. :P

Yeah, though "in Rivoluzione" I'd say means something closer to "revolutioning", "in the process of a revolution", etc. It's quite closer to the idea. :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 13, 2013, 02:55:29 PM
Basically, it's Moderate Italians up in Revolt. (How about "Revolting Moderates"? :D )


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Lasitten on January 13, 2013, 05:05:26 PM
I'm right now in Milan and seen tents of SEL and Civic Choice. In the railway station there's massive "Vota PD" ads and I even saw one Lega Nord poster. But where's PDL?! It's early to campaign but I thought that here would be more ads and campaining.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 13, 2013, 06:37:23 PM
Never forget the best named of all English Revolution era publications: The Moderate Intelligencer.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Nhoj on January 13, 2013, 07:01:03 PM
I'm right now in Milan and seen tents of SEL and Civic Choice. In the railway station there's massive "Vota PD" ads and I even saw one Lega Nord poster. But where's PDL?! It's early to campaign but I thought that here would be more ads and campaining.
Probably on silvios TV channels.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 13, 2013, 07:21:30 PM
I'm right now in Milan and seen tents of SEL and Civic Choice. In the railway station there's massive "Vota PD" ads and I even saw one Lega Nord poster. But where's PDL?! It's early to campaign but I thought that here would be more ads and campaining.

I'm sure that all really starts up once February hits. The PdL Deputy in North/Central America isn't having his kickoff until the second week in February (though the situation is obviously different here).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 14, 2013, 02:58:41 AM
I'm right now in Milan and seen tents of SEL and Civic Choice. In the railway station there's massive "Vota PD" ads and I even saw one Lega Nord poster. But where's PDL?! It's early to campaign but I thought that here would be more ads and campaining.

I'm sure that all really starts up once February hits. The PdL Deputy in North/Central America isn't having his kickoff until the second week in February (though the situation is obviously different here).
Campaigning starts this week.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 14, 2013, 10:17:09 AM
January 13th Tecnè Poll...

IBC - 38%
Center-right - 26%
AMI - 15%
M5S - 14%
RC - 4%
Others - 3%


Before I get chewed out by certain Italians :P please let me know if "AMI" is appropriate to use for Monti's coalition. The coalition used to be called "Agenda Monti per l'Italia" but I'm now seeing it as "Con Monti per l'Italia." No abbreviation is listed though.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 14, 2013, 10:44:59 AM
Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 14, 2013, 12:38:30 PM
Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.

Anyway, the most recent polls posted in the official polling archive (realized somewhere between the 5th and 9th) give:

- Left 39.8 - 38 - 38.5 - 40.3 - 34.9
- Right 23.1 - 27 - 30.7 - 24.4 - 24.9
- Monti 17.6 - 16 - 10.5 - 15.1 - 13.8

The left's lead ranges from 16.7 to 7.8, and averages 12.3. The Euromedia poll seems to be an outlier.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 14, 2013, 12:40:22 PM
Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.


Or Left/Right/Monti/Clowns/Far Left

:P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 14, 2013, 12:48:26 PM
Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.


Or Left/Right/Monti/Clowns/Far Left

:P

Like it. ;D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 14, 2013, 01:13:51 PM
Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.

Anyway, the most recent polls posted in the official polling archive (realized somewhere between the 5th and 9th) give:

- Left 39.8 - 38 - 38.5 - 40.3 - 34.9
- Right 23.1 - 27 - 30.7 - 24.4 - 24.9
- Monti 17.6 - 16 - 10.5 - 15.1 - 13.8

The left's lead ranges from 16.7 to 7.8, and averages 12.3. The Euromedia poll seems to be an outlier.

Apparently a 9.5% lead in tonight's poll for La7.

Euromedia is Berlusconi's pollster. In 2006 they were the only ones not predicting a comfortable win for Prodi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 14, 2013, 01:38:42 PM
So they're the only one that got 2006 right? :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 14, 2013, 01:40:06 PM
Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.


Or Left/Right/Monti/Clowns/Far Left

:P

Better:

Centrist clowns/clowny clowns/conservative clowns/The Clown/deluded clowns


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 14, 2013, 01:42:21 PM
Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.


Or Left/Right/Monti/Clowns/Far Left

:P

Better:

Centrist clowns/clowny clowns/conservative clowns/The Clown/deluded clowns
centre / right clowns / right / left clowns / left.

:P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 14, 2013, 02:56:12 PM
Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.

Anyway, the most recent polls posted in the official polling archive (realized somewhere between the 5th and 9th) give:

- Left 39.8 - 38 - 38.5 - 40.3 - 34.9
- Right 23.1 - 27 - 30.7 - 24.4 - 24.9
- Monti 17.6 - 16 - 10.5 - 15.1 - 13.8

The left's lead ranges from 16.7 to 7.8, and averages 12.3. The Euromedia poll seems to be an outlier.

Apparently a 9.5% lead in tonight's poll for La7.

Euromedia is Berlusconi's pollster. In 2006 they were the only ones not predicting a comfortable win for Prodi.

One must always remember that the lead in 2006 was "only" 4-5%, and that polls were prohibited in the last week of campaigning,which was when Berlusconi ended the debate with Prodi announcing that he would have cancelled ICI (tax on houses).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 15, 2013, 09:18:20 AM
Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.

Anyway, the most recent polls posted in the official polling archive (realized somewhere between the 5th and 9th) give:

- Left 39.8 - 38 - 38.5 - 40.3 - 34.9
- Right 23.1 - 27 - 30.7 - 24.4 - 24.9
- Monti 17.6 - 16 - 10.5 - 15.1 - 13.8

The left's lead ranges from 16.7 to 7.8, and averages 12.3. The Euromedia poll seems to be an outlier.

Apparently a 9.5% lead in tonight's poll for La7.

Euromedia is Berlusconi's pollster. In 2006 they were the only ones not predicting a comfortable win for Prodi.

One must always remember that the lead in 2006 was "only" 4-5%, and that polls were prohibited in the last week of campaigning,which was when Berlusconi ended the debate with Prodi announcing that he would have cancelled ICI (tax on houses).

Yes, but after 2006, I want to be psychologically ready in case of another tie :-)

 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 15, 2013, 09:28:04 AM
Over the next couple of weeks, IBC will surely bleed four to five points to Berlusconi and Co. That puts it at roughly 34% to 30%. We have a ball game then.  :P

At this point, I seriously think M5S will end up in the single digits.


Title: Euromedia (Berlusconi firm) has Silvio within four.
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 15, 2013, 10:49:06 AM
I swear I didn't type my above post after seeing this:


Italia. Bene Comune - 39%

PD 32.8%
Sinistra, Ecologia e Libertà 4.5%
Altri di centrosinistra 1.0%

Center-right - 35%

PdL 23.1%
Lega Nord 5.5%
Centrodestra Nazionale-Fratelli d'Italia 2.3%
La Destra 1.6%
Grande Sud+MPA+Altri di centrodestra 1.7%

Con Monti per l'Italia - 11%

UDC-Unione di Centro 4,0%
Futuro e Libertà 1.0%
Scelta civica-Con Monti per l'Italia 6.0%

M5S - 10.5%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.0%
Undecided - 35.0%


Have to love Il Giornale's commentary:

"L'ultimo sondaggio choc:
Berlusconi a 4 punti dal Pd

Ancora una volta il leader del centrodestra rischia di ribaltare i pronostici con una rimonta che molti consideravano impossibile."


"The latest poll shock:
Berlusconi to 4 points from Pd


Once again, the leader of the center-right is likely to overturn the odds with a comeback that many considered impossible."


Another poll has the Center-Right at 27%, Italia - Bene Comune at 37%, Monti's bunch at 15%, M5S at 12% and Rivoluzione Civile at 5%.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 15, 2013, 10:51:36 AM
God forbid.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 15, 2013, 10:57:29 AM

It's Berlusconi's firm but the other one (commissioned by La7, from what I can tell) showing it as a ten point race is a sign that things should be getting very tight...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 15, 2013, 11:23:34 AM
Oh for Christ's sake.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 15, 2013, 11:43:22 AM
At least he's no longer the PM candidate. Unless there's some sort of legal loophole where you can do a last-minute, Lautenberg-style switcharoo.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 15, 2013, 11:56:44 AM
At least he's no longer the PM candidate. Unless there's some sort of legal loophole where you can do a last-minute, Lautenberg-style switcharoo.
I'm reasonably certain there is nothing (in the law) to prevent Berlusconi heading the government after the elections if there's a parliamentary majority for that.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 15, 2013, 12:01:17 PM
But there isn't, since Maroni said the coalition deal is off if Berlusconi tries that.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 15, 2013, 12:08:02 PM
But there isn't, since Maroni said the coalition deal is off if Berlusconi tries that.
You trust Maroni's word? I don't.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 15, 2013, 12:33:34 PM
If he did change his mind, how soon would we know? At any rate SB would be the puppetmaster if anyone other than himself was chosen as the PM candidate in a PDL-win scenario, so dunno what sort of point Maroni is making.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 15, 2013, 12:43:35 PM
But there isn't, since Maroni said the coalition deal is off if Berlusconi tries that.

Yeah except Silvio would go back on his word after the election, after getting the win. Of course, I guess they could refuse to participate in the government.

Maybe one of our experts could answer: what happens if a coalition wins (example: the Center-right) and they piss off one of their major coalition partners (Lega Nord) before the government is formed? Of course, we're assuming the coalition cannot find another partner. Another election is held? What happens with the bonus seats for the newly elected Parliament? Would they be assigned to the next biggest coalition (assuming they had a plurality of the vote. I guess that would allow them to form the new government then)?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 15, 2013, 01:21:54 PM
Parliament as elected would serve for five years or until it is dissolved. It's still a niormal parliamentary system of government, after all, despite that quasi-presidential seat allocation mechanism.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 15, 2013, 01:37:43 PM
OMG, can Silvio actually win this? No, please!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 15, 2013, 01:53:37 PM
Parliament as elected would serve for five years or until it is dissolved. It's still a niormal parliamentary system of government, after all, despite that quasi-presidential seat allocation mechanism.


Yeah but if Lega (in this example) went in it alone after the election was held and denied a Center-right coalition of a plurality, would the plurality bonus just be assigned for the next largest coalition or would the burden still be on Berlusconi to form a government (and if he couldn't, Parliament would be dissolved)? What makes it more complicated on the surface is that this scenario occurs between the election and the beginning of a government. It's not like a party abandoning a coalition during the term.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 15, 2013, 01:56:52 PM
IPR new polls for La7's show Piazza Pulita (aired last night)

Tecné for SKY News


Bersani 37.5
Berlusconi 26.3
Monti 14.8
Grillo 14.2
Ingroia 4.1

ISPO for Porta a Porta

Bersani 36.3
Berlusconi 29.2
Monti 15.5
Grillo 12.6
Ingroia 4.4

IPR for TG3

Bersani 36.5
Berlusconi 28.5
Monti 15
Grillo 12
Ingroia 4

IPR polls for Piazza Pulita (la7 political show)

Lombardy: Bersani 35.5 Berlusconi 35
Veneto: Berlusconi 41 Bersani 33
Campania: Bersani 35 Berlusconi 32
Sicily: Bersani 34 Berlusconi 33.5


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 15, 2013, 02:12:05 PM
Parliament as elected would serve for five years or until it is dissolved. It's still a niormal parliamentary system of government, after all, despite that quasi-presidential seat allocation mechanism.


Yeah but if Lega (in this example) went in it alone after the election was held and denied a Center-right coalition of a plurality, would the plurality bonus just be assigned for the next largest coalition or would the burden still be on Berlusconi to form a government (and if he couldn't, Parliament would be dissolved)? What makes it more complicated on the surface is that this scenario occurs between the election and the beginning of a government. It's not like a party abandoning a coalition during the term.
It does not matter. It's after the seats are distributed. Indeed, if they decided they would not join the PdL-led government after all some days before the elections, they'd still be in that electoral coalition for seat distribution/thresholds terms as the time to withdraw from that would have passed.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 15, 2013, 02:20:48 PM
The Center-right needs to give Ingroia (and De Magistris in Campania) a big kiss for the closeness in Sicily and Campania. At this rate, I expect Berlusconi and Co. to win in both.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 15, 2013, 02:46:06 PM
Also, it looks like PdL decided on La Destra's Storace for the Lazio Governorship. Seems to be some controversy between PdL and Fratelli d'Italia on this, with Meloni saying FdI-CN possibly running their own candidate. So much for FdI-CN just being a puppet. ;)

Anyway, Euromedia also conducted a poll in this race with hypothetical match ups. The center-left candidate is cruising, beating Storace by thirteen. Maurizio Gasparri loses by fourteen. Whoever Beatrice Lorenzin is must be terribly unpopular: she's losing 48% to 27%. Looks like an easy pick up for the center-left considering how well known and unpopular the right wingers are.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 15, 2013, 07:08:15 PM
Re Lazio regional elections
Zingaretti is a good candidate. I guess PdL/Right already wrote it off probably concentrating their efforts on Rome mayorality which is up in spring. I guess few know who Lorenzin is (compared to Gasparri and Storace).

Silvio this morning:

http://video.repubblica.it/dossier/elezioni-politiche-2013/berlusconi-botte-in-testa-al-giornalista-dell-espresso/116242/114658


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 15, 2013, 07:08:41 PM
Storace is going to lose by a lot,way more than thirteen points.

Also,today's poll at Ballarò showed a lead for the center-left of more than 12 points.

Yeah,sure,"the comeback"...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 15, 2013, 07:16:19 PM
Re Lazio regional elections
Zingaretti is a good candidate. I guess PdL/Right already wrote it off probably concentrating their efforts on Rome mayorality which is up in spring. I guess few know who Lorenzin is (compared to Gasparri and Storace).

Silvio this morning:

http://video.repubblica.it/dossier/elezioni-politiche-2013/berlusconi-botte-in-testa-al-giornalista-dell-espresso/116242/114658

Who is running against Alemanno? Is he favored or is it a toss up?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 16, 2013, 10:09:15 AM

My reaction as well.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 16, 2013, 11:34:03 AM
Re Lazio regional elections
Zingaretti is a good candidate. I guess PdL/Right already wrote it off probably concentrating their efforts on Rome mayorality which is up in spring. I guess few know who Lorenzin is (compared to Gasparri and Storace).

Silvio this morning:

http://video.repubblica.it/dossier/elezioni-politiche-2013/berlusconi-botte-in-testa-al-giornalista-dell-espresso/116242/114658

Who is running against Alemanno?

They haven't picked up a candidate yet


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 17, 2013, 08:35:29 AM
OH GOD, now there are talks of a "pact" between Monti and Bersani... Just what Berlusoni needed to come across as the "real alternative"...



HOW CAN THE ITALIAN LEFT BE SO FUCKING RETARDED?!?!?!? HOW?!?!?!?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 17, 2013, 09:04:40 AM
What kind of pact?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 17, 2013, 09:24:12 AM

Don't know for sure, something along the lines of a coalition agreement if nobody gets an absolute majority (something that would probably happen anyways, but which it's UTTERLY STUPID to talk about BEFORE the GODDAMN ELECTIONS).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 17, 2013, 09:29:11 AM
Presumably for Senate purposes, since the COD has the majority bonus. That could mean Bersani wants a buffer from his party's left wing.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 17, 2013, 09:39:15 AM
I wonder how much support would jump from IBC to Ingroia/De Magistris out of protest for aligning with the "evil austerity" regime.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 17, 2013, 09:51:40 AM
Bersani hits 40% in most recent poll (Piepoli) but Berlusconi up to 30%...

Italia. Bene Comune -  40%

Center-right -  30%

Con Monti per l'Italia -  10%

M5S -  10%

Rivoluzione Civile -  4%

Others -  2%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 17, 2013, 10:11:52 AM
Bersani hits 40% in most recent poll (Piepoli) but Berlusconi up to 30%...

Italia. Bene Comune -  40%

Center-right -  30%

Con Monti per l'Italia -  10%

M5S -  10%

Rivoluzione Civile -  10%

Others -  2%

RC at 10%? This looks like a joke.

Also, the fact all coalitions are at exact tenths of support is pretty weird. Where do you get these numbers?



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 17, 2013, 11:06:46 AM
Bersani hits 40% in most recent poll (Piepoli) but Berlusconi up to 30%...

Italia. Bene Comune -  40%

Center-right -  30%

Con Monti per l'Italia -  10%

M5S -  10%

Rivoluzione Civile -  10%

Others -  2%

RC at 10%? This looks like a joke.

Also, the fact all coalitions are at exact tenths of support is pretty weird. Where do you get these numbers?



No, no. That was a typo on my end. They're at 4%.

The coalitions aren't at exact tenths of support (except, go figure, in this poll. That stood out to me). I usually round to the nearest one though I guess I shouldn't.

I check the Wiki page for the election's opinion polling and the official government site.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 17, 2013, 07:10:04 PM
I wonder how much support would jump from IBC to Ingroia/De Magistris out of protest for aligning with the "evil austerity" regime.
None.
They get their votes from people who don't vote as of now,and especially from left-leaning Grillo voters.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on January 17, 2013, 09:25:18 PM
I'm torn.  For so long, I've been imagining my hypothetical Italian self voting for SEL.  Now, I'm thinking that the Orange Movement might be better.  I mean, even if they oppose Monti's reforms, SEL will basically be propping up Monti.  And he wants to keep them, if I'm correct.  Plus, it seems like no European center-left party is capable of coming to power and not ing everything up with more austerity.  But this is tricky. 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 18, 2013, 01:22:27 AM
10% gap only ?

If the Italians elect Berlusconi again, the country should probably be put under tutelage.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on January 18, 2013, 03:44:38 AM
Bersani hits 40% in most recent poll (Piepoli) but Berlusconi up to 30%...

Italia. Bene Comune -  40%

Center-right -  30%

Con Monti per l'Italia -  10%

M5S -  10%

Rivoluzione Civile -  4%

Others -  2%

Actually the latest poll from Piepoli (not one of the best pollsters...) is:

Italia. Bene Comune -  40%

Center-right -  30%

Con Monti per l'Italia -  14%

M5S -  10%

Rivoluzione Civile -  4%

Others -  2%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on January 18, 2013, 05:04:23 AM
It will never sease to amuse me that even though an over-whelming majority of elections gets closer when the election is near, there will always be a number of posters freaking out becaue of it.




 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 18, 2013, 06:30:05 AM
10% gap only ?

If the Italians elect Berlusconi again, the country should probably be put under tutelage.
That appears to be Merkel's notion of how all of Southern Europe should be governed.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on January 18, 2013, 07:58:13 AM
It will never sease to amuse me that even though an over-whelming majority of elections gets closer when the election is near, there will always be a number of posters freaking out becaue of it.




 

I completely agree. Many don't undersatand that meny voters simply don't answer to polls when elections are far, they are not interested, and when electon is near udually the get a little bit more aware and end up voting the same party as before.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Kitteh on January 18, 2013, 02:19:55 PM
It will never sease to amuse me that even though an over-whelming majority of elections gets closer when the election is near, there will always be a number of posters freaking out becaue of it.

I completely agree. Many don't undersatand that meny voters simply don't answer to polls when elections are far, they are not interested, and when electon is near udually the get a little bit more aware and end up voting the same party as before.

To be honest I'm more worried about what will happen after the election than the election itself. Maybe I'm just a pessimist but I'm very worried that the PD/center-left will end up making some kind of coalition with Monti in the Senate and continuing his policies combined with some token leftist stuff like raising taxes on the rich and/or Bersani ending up being a borderline incompetent leader like Hollande.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 18, 2013, 05:15:38 PM
Hardball

()


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 18, 2013, 05:18:42 PM
Pathetic.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 18, 2013, 05:44:12 PM
Lowest common denominator. But as LBJ said in another context, don't get in a pissing contest with a polecat.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 18, 2013, 06:03:37 PM
Lowest common denominator. But as LBJ said in another context, don't get in a pissing contest with a polecat.

Very true. I've always said Monti made a very stupid choice and would probably lose a lot by entering in the political playing field.

He's already lost a lot of his "integrity" advantage by promising the same tax cuts as everybody else despite having been the one who raised taxes to their current levels. Monti is a good person, but politics are making him lose a lot of the good he had.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 18, 2013, 06:13:35 PM
SWG showed just a 6% lead this morning
However, Tecné (SKY's pollster) continues to show its usual 11% lead.

PD have excluded 3 people from their lists (2 in Sicily and 1 in Campania). 2 others have stood down on their own. They are quite dubious characters with some trials in their CV.

Pannella makes an election alliance with Storace in Lazio. LOL.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 18, 2013, 06:18:42 PM
Yeah, heard about this in tonight's TG. Seriously, have they lost it?

(I mean, Pannella has always been slightly crazy, but he seemed also very principled to me)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 18, 2013, 06:21:31 PM
I'm just thankful Pannella's pal isn't a candidate especially after almost winning last time.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 18, 2013, 07:58:03 PM
This.

Like Pannella.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 19, 2013, 07:12:30 AM
@Phil

PD lists for Italian Abroads

Europe House

1 Laura Garavini MP (Germany – Berlin)
2 Gianni Farina MP (Switerland – Pfaeffikon)
3 Franco Narducci MP (Switerland – Argovia)
4 Michela Baranelli (Germany – Gross Gerau)
5 Andrea Biondi (UK – London)
6 Francesco Cerasani (Belgium – Bruxelles)
7 Pino Maggio (Germany – Villingen)
8 Domenico Mesiano (Switerland – Sion)
9 Roberto Serra (Luxembourg – Luxembourg)
10 Emilia Barbara Sina (Switerland – Zurigo)

Europe Senate

1 Claudio Micheloni MP (Switzerland - Neuchatel)
2 Elio Carozza (Belgium – Bruxelles)
3 Cristina Rizzotti (Germany- Stoccarda)
4 Massimiliano Vellini (Spain – Valencia)

South America House

1 Fabio Porta MP (Brazil – San Paolo)
2 Antonella Pinto (Venezuela – Valencia)
3 Flavio Giannetti (Argentina – Rosario)
4 Claudia Antonini (Brazil – Porto Alegre)
5 Mauro Sabbadini (Argentina – Salta)
6 Monica Patricia Rizzo (Argentina- Mar del Plata)
7 Luis Melieni detto Gino Renni (Argentina – Buenos Aires)
8 Filomena Narducci (Uruguay – Montevideo)

South America Senate

1 Francisco Nardelli (Argentina – Bahia Blanca)
2 Francesco Rotundo (Argentina – Moron)
3 Renato Palermo (Uruguay – Montevideo)
4 Fausto Longo (Brazil – San Paolo)

North / Central America House

1 Gianluca Galletto (USA – New York)
2 Francesca La Marca (Canada – Toronto)
3 Giovanni Rapanà (Canada – Montreal)
4 Marco Piana (USA – Los Angeles)

North-Central America Senate

1 Renato Turano (USA – Chicago)
2 Rocco Di Trolio (Canada – Vancouver)

Africa/Asia/Oceania/Antartide House

1 Marco Fedi MP (Australia – Melbourne)
2 Giuliano Giacovazzi (Sud Africa – Cape Town)

Africa/Asia/Oceania/Antartide Senate

1 Francesco Giacobbe (Australia – Sidney)
2 Silvia Finzi (Tunisia – Tunisi)

It looks as they are 2 retirements: Randazzo in Australia and co and Gino Bucchino. Who is the favourite to take the PD seat in North America/House now?

SEL will run on its own in Europe at the House.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 19, 2013, 08:14:28 AM
Thank you! The Canadians usually do well but a New Yorker is also on the ballot so that should be a very competitive battle.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on January 19, 2013, 09:34:22 AM
Out of interest, I did a little background check on the Germany-based PD candidates:

Lina Garavani: Political scientist, born and educated in Italy, came to Germany as a researcher, worked in several training / integration projects for young immigrants, organised anti-Mafia campaigns among Italian restaurant owners in Germany. MP since 2008, leads the PD faction in the parliamentary anti-Mafia committee. Looks like a pretty good choice.
 
Michela Baranelli: Long-term member of SPD youth organisation (JuSos), deputy leader of their Rüsselsheim chapter, represents (works at?) the Centro Italiano in Groß Gerau, which takes part in a network that supports professional integration of immigrants.

Pino Maggio: No information found.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 19, 2013, 02:09:31 PM
Casini states there is no pact with the left. The way he described it: "Io al governo con Vendola è un film di fantascienza."


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 20, 2013, 02:58:27 AM
Pannella won't be allied with Storace for "technical reasons".


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 21, 2013, 12:52:02 PM
I was out this afternoon and so I couldn't enjoy all the drama about PdL's Campania lists!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 21, 2013, 01:11:49 PM
As someone more interested in Campania and Sicily, tell me about this drama. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 21, 2013, 01:31:30 PM
As someone more interested in Campania and Sicily, tell me about this drama. :P

Campania lists was in the spotlight because of Cosentino. Let him stand or not?
At some point this afternoon a rumour spreads: Campania PdL lists (and all documents connected) were stolen! PdL spokepersons denied it saying Nitto Palma had them.
But it seems that at 6:30 PM candidates were in a Naples hotel re-signing everything. 8 PM is the deadline to present the lists.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 21, 2013, 01:49:46 PM
This party is creating a nice little history of screwing up petitions and lists right at the deadline, isn't it?  ::)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 21, 2013, 02:27:01 PM
This party is creating a nice little history of screwing up petitions and lists right at the deadline, isn't it?  ::)

The list has been presented in time in the end. But all the tittle tattle was farcical and entertaining.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 21, 2013, 02:36:32 PM
This party is creating a nice little history of screwing up petitions and lists right at the deadline, isn't it?  ::)

The list has been presented in time in the end. But all the tittle tattle was farcical and entertaining.

And Cosentino was left out.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on January 22, 2013, 04:25:06 AM
Here tehre is a very interesting map with 2008 results:

http://www.lastampa.it/italia/speciali/elezioni-politiche-2013/elezioni-2008

!!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 22, 2013, 06:41:18 AM
Last Corriere della Sera poll had Veneto within 3%.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 22, 2013, 09:25:08 AM
Here tehre is a very interesting map with 2008 results:

http://www.lastampa.it/italia/speciali/elezioni-politiche-2013/elezioni-2008

!!

Molise went with the center-left? Never knew that. And Berlusconi ran from a Molise constituency.


Title: Two polls show Berlusconi closing in.
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 22, 2013, 09:33:55 AM
Not sure why these weren't posted: two new polls show this is getting a lot closer...

SpinCon:

Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 31.8%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12.2%
M5S - 10.7%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.6%
Others - 7.7%

SWG:

Italia. Bene Comune - 33%
Center-right - 27.2%
M5S - 16.8%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.7%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.4%
Others - 3.9%



Title: Re: Two polls show Berlusconi closing in.
Post by: Tender Branson on January 22, 2013, 09:49:09 AM
Not sure why these weren't posted: two new polls show this is getting a lot closer...

SpinCon:

Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 31.8%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12.2%
M5S - 10.7%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.6%
Others - 7.7%

SWG:

Italia. Bene Comune - 33%
Center-right - 27.2%
M5S - 16.8%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.7%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.4%
Others - 3.9%

::)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 22, 2013, 09:56:20 AM
Which pollsters are generally regarded as most accurate, if any?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: DL on January 22, 2013, 10:09:40 AM
Last Corriere della Sera poll had Veneto within 3%.

Isn't Veneto normally the most right-leaning region in Itlay that typically goes to the right by 20+% margins? If they are only up by 3% there it would be the equivalent of the GOP barely being ahead in Texas.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on January 22, 2013, 10:18:06 AM
Seconded : how good is this tracker (http://www.scenaripolitici.com/2013/01/sondaggio-scenaripolitici-ibc-337-40.html) ? It seems to be compiling a number of polls from various firms, but I don't if it can be trusted and to what extent.

Anyway, the today delivery is the following :
()

From that, and from what I can gather from watching the polls separately, there clearly seems to be a momentum towards RC, away from M5S (those two possibly partly connected), towards the right-wing coalition and away from Monti (those maybe not so connected), and pretty much stability for Bene comune.

Is that your feeling fellows ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 22, 2013, 10:27:46 AM
Last Corriere della Sera poll had Veneto within 3%.

Isn't Veneto normally the most right-leaning region in Itlay that typically goes to the right by 20+% margins? If they are only up by 3% there it would be the equivalent of the GOP barely being ahead in Texas.

Veneto went with the center-right by 13% last time around. That was a good year for Silvio so I'd imagine the margin would come down.

Aside from this Corriere poll, the most recent poll had the center-right up by eight. Corriere might be an outlier.

There's a poll by Demos-Demetra (has to be the Corriere poll) that shows the following for Veneto (if I'm reading correctly)...

Camera vote

Center-right - 35.1%
Italia. Bene Comune - 33.5%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 15.8%
M5S - 9.5%
Rivoluzione Civile - 2.5%
Indipendenza Veneta - 1.8%
Others - 1.8%


Senate vote

Center-right - 37.5%
Italia. Bene Comune - 34.2%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.8%
M5S - 8.5%
Rivoluzione Civile - 2.3%
Others - 3.7%



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 22, 2013, 10:30:45 AM
Yes, the general feeling (and media narrative) is that the race is getting tighter, Grillo is losing momentun, Monti's support a bit unclear (15+% or more close to 10%?), more media coverage about Ingroia than before.

Seconded : how good is this tracker (http://www.scenaripolitici.com/2013/01/sondaggio-scenaripolitici-ibc-337-40.html) ? It seems to be compiling a number of polls from various firms, but I don't if it can be trusted and to what extent.

Anyway, the today delivery is the following :
()


At the bottom of the table, they say it's an online survey sampling a voluntary panel of internet users taking into account sex, region, municipality's status (large, medium, little), employment, how many times they go to the mass.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 22, 2013, 10:39:36 AM
IPR

Lombardy: Bersani 36% Berlusconi 35% Monti 14.4%
Sicily: Bersani 35% Berlusconi 33% Monti 14%
Campania: Bersani 36% Berlusconi 32% Monti 12%
Puglia: Bersani 35.5% Berlusconi 31.5% Monti 17%

ISPO (Corriere)

Lombardy: Berlusconi 36.7 Bersani 34.5 Monti 14.9 Grillo 8.5 Ingroia 4.1
Veneto: Berlusconi 33.9 Bersani 30 Monti 17.4 Grillo 9.7 Ingroia 5.8
Campania: Bersani 32.5% Berlusconi 27.9% Monti 14.5% Grillo 12.4 Ingroia 8.3
Puglia : Bersani 33% Berlusconi 29.2% Monti 17% Grillo 12.9 Ingroia 5.6
Sicily: Berlusconi 29.6 Bersani 28.6 Grillo 18.3 Monti 16.6  Ingroia 4.9

National polls

EMG (La7 News): Bersani 37.1% Berlusconi 28% Monti 15.2% Grillo 12.8% Ingroia 4.6%
IPR: Bersani 36% Berlusconi 28.5% Monti 14.3% Grillo 13.38% Ingroia 4.3%
Tecné (SKY News): Bersani 35.8% Berlusconi 26.5% Monti 15.2% Grillo 14% Ingroia 4.8%
Piepoli: Bersani 39.5% Berlusconi 30.5% Monti 14.0% Grillo 10% Ingroia 4.0%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 22, 2013, 10:45:16 AM
I guess Nichi is to blame for the Puglia numbers. :(


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 22, 2013, 12:11:07 PM
The center-left is still ahead nationally by around 9%,and at last there are polls showing it ahead also in Lombardy and Sicily, which would grant it an absolute majority in the Senate.
If,come election day,the lead nationally will have become 6% instead of 9%,nobody really gives a damn,as long as the swing hasn't been in the Senate swing regions.

So,saying that "Berlusconi is coming back" is pure nonsense.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 22, 2013, 12:18:01 PM
The Senate polls in Lombardy and Sicily show both as toss ups though. I wouldn't say there is a consistent lead for either side.

And some polls show the national lead well lower than 9% unless you're saying they're total junk polls (which you and a few others would know better than the rest of us).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 22, 2013, 12:25:35 PM
I guess Nichi is to blame for the Puglia numbers. :(

I think the Puglia numbers are more or less in line with national swing.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 22, 2013, 12:48:18 PM
The Senate polls in Lombardy and Sicily show both as toss ups though. I wouldn't say there is a consistent lead for either side.

And some polls show the national lead well lower than 9% unless you're saying they're total junk polls (which you and a few others would know better than the rest of us).
The only polls showing a lead well lower than 9% are Euromedia,which is Berlusconi's pollster,and SpinCon which is junk (online polls!)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 22, 2013, 01:31:09 PM
Andrea didn't include the Datamonitor poll from yesterday so here it is (essentially the same as EMG):

Italia. Bene Comune - 37.5%
Center-right - 28.5%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.7%
M5S - 12.8%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.2%
Others - 2.3%


As for SpinCon, if it really is some online poll, I won't post them anymore.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 22, 2013, 05:32:12 PM
Euromedia regional polls

Lombardia: Berlusconi 35.4 Bersani 35.2 Monti 13.6 Grillo 10.4 Ingroia 3.6
Veneto: Berlusconi 48.7 Bersani 32.6 Monti 11 Grillo 5 Ingroia 1.2
Campania: Bersani 34.7 Berlusconi 32.4 Monti 12.8 Grillo 10.3 Ingroia 7.5
Sicily: Berlusconi 31.6 Bersani 31.4 Monti 14.7 Grillo 13.8 Ingroia 6.1

Their Lombardia, Campania and Sicilia polls are in line with IPSO and IPR. Their national polls look a bit strange given these regional polls...except for Veneto. Veneto is a bit bizarre with both Grillo and Ingroia very low.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on January 23, 2013, 12:29:22 AM
Strange, in the list of the North American PD candidates, I spotted a Montreal borough councillor.
So, I suppose binationals can run?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on January 23, 2013, 08:19:59 AM
Strange, in the list of the North American PD candidates, I spotted a Montreal borough councillor.
So, I suppose binationals can run?

Obviously, as their European top candidate also has dual (German/ Italian) citizenship.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 23, 2013, 08:38:34 AM
Why shouldn't they - binational residents can run for elections in every civilized country; probably a majority of the people eligible to vote in the abroad constituencies are binationals; the whole point of creating abroad seats is to give more power to binational people as they are a comparatively upper-caste group.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 23, 2013, 10:12:20 AM
It shouldn't be surprising that the candidates are dual citizens. That's the whole point. :P

Max, a lot of the North American candidates on both sides have been local councilors in Quebec or Ontario.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 24, 2013, 07:00:58 AM
Euromedia regional polls

Lombardia: Berlusconi 35.4 Bersani 35.2 Monti 13.6 Grillo 10.4 Ingroia 3.6
Veneto: Berlusconi 48.7 Bersani 32.6 Monti 11 Grillo 5 Ingroia 1.2
Campania: Bersani 34.7 Berlusconi 32.4 Monti 12.8 Grillo 10.3 Ingroia 7.5
Sicily: Berlusconi 31.6 Bersani 31.4 Monti 14.7 Grillo 13.8 Ingroia 6.1

Their Lombardia, Campania and Sicilia polls are in line with IPSO and IPR. Their national polls look a bit strange given these regional polls...except for Veneto. Veneto is a bit bizarre with both Grillo and Ingroia very low.
This Veneto poll seems more like a prediction based on past results and recent trends than a real poll.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 24, 2013, 10:38:56 AM
Let me get this straight: regarding an alliance of leftists and the lack of inclusion for RC, Bersani said he doesn't have Ingroia's phone number (I guess as a half serious excuse as to why they haven't been communicating). In response, Ingroia publishes a photo of his phone with his text to "Pier Luigi" on the screen from December with no response from Bersani.

Oh, I love silly process stories. :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 25, 2013, 03:45:36 PM
SWG has the following today...

Italia. Bene Comune - 34.1%
Center-right - 26.6%
M5S - 17.2%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12.8%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.4%
Others - 3.9%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on January 25, 2013, 06:32:51 PM
SWG has the following today...

Italia. Bene Comune - 34.1%
Center-right - 26.6%
M5S - 17.2%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12.8%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.4%
Others - 3.9%

Are they a serious pollster?
In that case what made Grillo jump back up to those high levels after several polls showed them falling down to about 10-12%?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 25, 2013, 07:00:36 PM
I've seen the last few polls, and all seem to have the left leading by 7-8 points. That's pretty poor and nowhere near what it should be, but the lead seems to be steady and consistent. Everything can still happen, but I think we're not in panic mode just yet.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 25, 2013, 08:38:22 PM
Exactly one month to go. An eight point lead and Silvio hasn't ramped up campaigning yet. Just saying.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 25, 2013, 08:41:52 PM
Exactly one month to go. An eight point lead and Silvio hasn't ramped up campaigning yet. Just saying.

"hasn't ramped up campaigning yet"? ??? You probably haven't seen the same campaign as I have.

Anyways, I find your implicit salivating at the idea of a Berlusconi comeback (despite your insistence that you don't support him) pretty disheartening.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 25, 2013, 08:53:57 PM
::)

Pointing out that the race has undeniably narrowed (unless you're one poster that still refuses to acknowledge it) and that Berlusconi has a history of closing strong counts as "salivating" over a win? One can't objectively point out a comeback? God, some of you are getting awfully desperate/angry and taking it out on the wrong people.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 25, 2013, 09:12:43 PM
::)

Pointing out that the race has undeniably narrowed (unless you're one poster that still refuses to acknowledge it) and that Berlusconi has a history of closing strong counts as "salivating" over a win? One can't objectively point out a comeback? God, some of you are getting awfully desperate/angry and taking it out on the wrong people.

We've all noticed by now that the gap has narrowed. This has been widely discussed in this thread including by myself (and not exactly in overconfident tones, as you can remember). However, that was the news of two or three weeks ago. If you look at the big picture, you can see there has not been much movement in most recent polls. However, 90% of your posts in this thread keep being about how Berlusconi's inevitable comeback is on a roll. You sound pretty much like those who still saw a "Romney momentum" in the last week of October. And since these people weren't absolutely neutral in their support, that led me to think you aren't either. I apologize if I misunderstood.

I think you know I've no problem discussing with people of different opinions, but supporting Berlusconi isn't a problem in political views - it's a moral issue. Hence why I'm annoyed when I see you verging on this.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 25, 2013, 09:21:41 PM
The response was even more ridiculous than the original post. Whatever. ::) Let's keep the holier-than-thou nonsense out of here though. Thanks.

And 90% of my posts are questions to people that know more than I do about the race (mainly native Italians) and poll numbers without commentary.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 25, 2013, 09:27:53 PM
The response was even more ridiculous than the original post. Whatever. ::) Let's keep the holier-than-thou nonsense out of here though. Thanks.

And 90% of my posts are questions to people that know more than I do about the race (mainly native Italians) and poll numbers without commentary.

Would you mind to explain what's so ridiculous? I know the "Berlusconi is coming back" narrative is always a very tempting one to adopt, but being as confident as you are never makes much sense (Sarkozy will be reelected, right?).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 25, 2013, 09:41:37 PM
The response was even more ridiculous than the original post. Whatever. ::) Let's keep the holier-than-thou nonsense out of here though. Thanks.

And 90% of my posts are questions to people that know more than I do about the race (mainly native Italians) and poll numbers without commentary.

Would you mind to explain what's so ridiculous? I know the "Berlusconi is coming back" narrative is always a very tempting one to adopt, but being as confident as you are never makes much sense (Sarkozy will be reelected, right?).

And Sarkozy was nearly re-elected.  ;)

What was ridiculous was your suggestion that 90% of my posts in the thread have been about Berlusconi's inevitable comeback.

1) 90%? Really, dude?
2) I've never argued that the comeback is "inevitable." I haven't argued that Silvio will win.
3) I'm here for answers, to post news and discuss the dynamics of the race. I really have no desire to "campaign" here. If you want to get all sanctimonious about how someone's support in this election is a "moral issue," go ahead. I'm not engaging in that.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 25, 2013, 10:03:05 PM
The response was even more ridiculous than the original post. Whatever. ::) Let's keep the holier-than-thou nonsense out of here though. Thanks.

And 90% of my posts are questions to people that know more than I do about the race (mainly native Italians) and poll numbers without commentary.

Would you mind to explain what's so ridiculous? I know the "Berlusconi is coming back" narrative is always a very tempting one to adopt, but being as confident as you are never makes much sense (Sarkozy will be reelected, right?).

And Sarkozy was nearly re-elected.  ;)

What was ridiculous was your suggestion that 90% of my posts in the thread have been about Berlusconi's inevitable comeback.

1) 90%? Really, dude?
2) I've never argued that the comeback is "inevitable." I haven't argued that Silvio will win.
3) I'm here for answers, to post news and discuss the dynamics of the race. I really have no desire to "campaign" here. If you want to get all sanctimonious about how someone's support in this election is a "moral issue," go ahead. I'm not engaging in that.

Oh come on now. We all have opinions and discussing their respective moral standing is a part of the game. I didn't think you'd be that sensitive.

And yeah, mine was obviously a hyperbole and I apologize for that, but you can't deny you've been rambling about Berlusconi's comeback much more than anyone else. And you keep talking about it like a massive movement just taking place despite the fact it hasn't been all that evident in the most recent polls. You seemed to me (emphasis on seemed, again sorry if I misunderstood) overly excited about all this.

Anyway, predicting that Sarkozy would make it to 48% would have been an audacious but defensible prediction. Predicting, with such confidence, that he would win while he was polling in the low 40s was just plain stupid.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 25, 2013, 10:11:22 PM
Yes, I've been "rambling" about his comeback because 95% of the people here viciously hate him and you have one person that actually refuses to recognize that he's had any type of comeback. So, yeah, by comparison I guess I do seem like a fan.

I'm not getting into a flame war about my Sarkozy prediction but I must say your reasoning there makes absolutely no sense. Saying he'd end up with 48% of the vote while polling in the low 40s would have been fine but predicting he'd get just 2.1% more than that is plain stupid? Uh. Ok. It would have been indefensible if he ended up being swamped but he wasn't so I don't understand why guessing closer to the actual result was stupid. It just seemed stupid at a certain time.

Let's just drop that. Feel free to start a new thread to battle that one out. I think you've done enough damage here. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 25, 2013, 10:37:48 PM
Yes, I've been "rambling" about his comeback because 95% of the people here viciously hate him and you have one person that actually refuses to recognize that he's had any type of comeback. So, yeah, by comparison I guess I do seem like a fan.

I'm not getting into a flame war about my Sarkozy prediction but I must say your reasoning there makes absolutely no sense. Saying he'd end up with 48% of the vote while polling in the low 40s would have been fine but predicting he'd get just 2.1% more than that is plain stupid? Uh. Ok. It would have been indefensible if he ended up being swamped but he wasn't so I don't understand why guessing closer to the actual result was stupid. It just seemed stupid at a certain time.

Let's just drop that. Feel free to start a new thread to battle that one out. I think you've done enough damage here. :P

Sorry, but I'm not going to let this stand.

First of all, who the hell is the guy who "actually refuses to recognize that he's had any type of comeback"? I hope you're not talking about me, because that would mean you really didn't pay attention.

Also, the fact you seem to think "viciously" hating Berlusconi is something else than the soundest and most natural possible attitude is already pretty bad. This guy is a vile abomination of mankind. That's a fact. There's no need to be a moderate hero about this.

And yes, of course it does make some sense to imagine the gap would narrow a bit. Elections do tend to narrow more often than not (though of course it could have narrowed much less than it actually did). But for a candidate as deeply unpopular as Sarkozy to actually pull a win, it would take much more. Yeah, there's a pretty big difference between 48% and 50%. But even this doesn't really matter. You said "Sarkozy will win". You didn't even say he might win or there's a fair chance. You made a ridiculously bold prediction that turned out decidedly wrong: you lost. You can't use the fact he came close as an excuse.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 25, 2013, 10:43:22 PM
Read the thread. It isn't you.

The rest of your rambling really isn't worth my time. Move on.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 26, 2013, 03:32:29 AM
Exactly one month to go. An eight point lead and Silvio hasn't ramped up campaigning yet. Just saying.
Don't get wet,ex-Silvio hater.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 26, 2013, 06:53:13 AM
Remember that anger I mentioned earlier...?

Anyway, I don't know what makes you guys think I secretly love Berlusconi. I already mentioned my loyalties and do you really think me, of all people, would shy away from supporting and defending a controversial figure? I've stood by "worse." :P

I think some have an overinflated feeling about themselves and want to think they discovered something. ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 26, 2013, 08:20:12 AM
I viciously hate Silvio Berlusconi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on January 26, 2013, 02:08:18 PM
SWG has the following today...

Italia. Bene Comune - 34.1%
Center-right - 26.6%
M5S - 17.2%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12.8%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.4%
Others - 3.9%

Are they a serious pollster?
In that case what made Grillo jump back up to those high levels after several polls showed them falling down to about 10-12%?
I think it's an outlier. He's been steady at around 12 give or take 2 for at least three weeks now.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 26, 2013, 03:07:41 PM
Supporting Fratelli d'Italia = supporting Silvio,btw.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 26, 2013, 03:12:32 PM
Supporting Fratelli d'Italia = supporting Silvio,btw.

Ok.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Famous Mortimer on January 26, 2013, 09:35:37 PM
Yes, I've been "rambling" about his comeback because 95% of the people here viciously hate him and you have one person that actually refuses to recognize that he's had any type of comeback. So, yeah, by comparison I guess I do seem like a fan.

I'm not getting into a flame war about my Sarkozy prediction but I must say your reasoning there makes absolutely no sense. Saying he'd end up with 48% of the vote while polling in the low 40s would have been fine but predicting he'd get just 2.1% more than that is plain stupid? Uh. Ok. It would have been indefensible if he ended up being swamped but he wasn't so I don't understand why guessing closer to the actual result was stupid. It just seemed stupid at a certain time.

Let's just drop that. Feel free to start a new thread to battle that one out. I think you've done enough damage here. :P

Sorry, but I'm not going to let this stand.

First of all, who the hell is the guy who "actually refuses to recognize that he's had any type of comeback"? I hope you're not talking about me, because that would mean you really didn't pay attention.

Also, the fact you seem to think "viciously" hating Berlusconi is something else than the soundest and most natural possible attitude is already pretty bad. This guy is a vile abomination of mankind. That's a fact. There's no need to be a moderate hero about this.

And yes, of course it does make some sense to imagine the gap would narrow a bit. Elections do tend to narrow more often than not (though of course it could have narrowed much less than it actually did). But for a candidate as deeply unpopular as Sarkozy to actually pull a win, it would take much more. Yeah, there's a pretty big difference between 48% and 50%. But even this doesn't really matter. You said "Sarkozy will win". You didn't even say he might win or there's a fair chance. You made a ridiculously bold prediction that turned out decidedly wrong: you lost. You can't use the fact he came close as an excuse.

I want no part of your crazy internet drama but the term "moderate hero" is pretty awesome and will be using it a lot from now on. Thank you.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Kitteh on January 26, 2013, 09:38:29 PM
I want no part of your crazy internet drama but the term "moderate hero" is pretty awesome and will be using it a lot from now on. Thank you.

It's an Atlas Forum coined term. I know, it is really awesome.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 27, 2013, 06:12:27 AM
"Mussolini was a great leader except for the laws against Jews".

Berlusconi,today.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 27, 2013, 09:14:28 AM
You know what I talk about more than "the comeback?" The fact that Silvio likes to say really stupid things and dig himself ridiculous holes.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: ERvND on January 27, 2013, 09:56:26 AM
So is this statement seen as a big scandal in Italy? I presumed that open reverence to Mussolini is not really uncommon within certain parts of society.

Moreover, Berlusconi has to pander to his neo-fascist supporters. They are part of his PdL, after all.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 27, 2013, 10:03:24 AM
I guess I have to put a disclaimer on these posts these days so here it goes: the following is not a defense of the beliefs of Silvio Berlusconi...

While this comment will obviously do more harm than good, I wonder just how much harm it will do in Italy. As has been discussed, there's an element in the country (and not just restricted to outwardly fascist people) that respects the "good" Mussolini did. These people seem to rear their heads in difficult times.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 27, 2013, 11:10:03 AM
He also defended Mussolini's decision to ally with Hitler in those same remarks. Note the venue.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/berlusconi-defends-mussolini-backing-hitler


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 27, 2013, 11:54:13 AM
He's obviously trying to attract more right-leaning voters,but they'd probably vote for him anyway since The Right and Fratelli d'Italia are already in the coalition.

At the same time,he's pissing off everyone else who is not a Berlusconi hack.
So,pretty much,losing Jews,gaining neo-fascists. Won't lose many votes,he just lost another bit of dignity and integrity (if he had any left).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on January 27, 2013, 11:58:05 AM
he just lost another bit of dignity and integrity (if he had any left).
Hint : he hadn't.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on January 27, 2013, 02:00:46 PM
Dear God.  Never thought he'd sink THIS low.  Though given who is it, I should have.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on January 27, 2013, 03:39:28 PM
Dear God.  Never thought he'd sink THIS low.  Though given who is it, I should have.
Hint : he already had sunk this low. And lower. For a long time now.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 27, 2013, 04:08:45 PM
To be absolutely fair with Berlusconi (never thought I'd say these words!) he did not exactly say that. He said racial laws was Mussolini's greatest fault but that he also did good things. Which, of course, remains horrifying, especially on Memorial Day.

Honestly, I have absolutely no idea what political impact it will have.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on January 27, 2013, 05:13:39 PM
To be absolutely fair with Berlusconi (never thought I'd say these words!) he did not exactly say that. He said racial laws was Mussolini's greatest fault but that he also did good things. Which, of course, remains horrifying, especially on Memorial Day.

Honestly, I have absolutely no idea what political impact it will have.
Hint : none whatsoever.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on January 27, 2013, 09:08:55 PM
Isn't this gonna hurt Berlusconi on Sicily? Mussolini didn't have good relations with the Cosa Nostra after all. :P

 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on January 28, 2013, 05:28:39 AM
So is this statement seen as a big scandal in Italy? I presumed that open reverence to Mussolini is not really uncommon within certain parts of society.

Moreover, Berlusconi has to pander to his neo-fascist supporters. They are part of his PdL, after all.

He repeated some clichè quite popular in Italy, the fact that Mussolini did something right, many people used to say that "trains were in time", "you could seep with open doores", "Mussolini was honest and not corrupted" etc etc. Basically Berlusconi doesn't need any more to convince moderates and centrist but to recover some votes amog his former electorate (which was big), the less moderate I'd say and these statements scandalize only who already has no intention to vote him.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 28, 2013, 01:55:21 PM
M5S might really be rebounding. Yesterday's Tecnè poll...

Italia. Bene Comune - 34.5%
Center-right - 27.7%
M5S - 14.7%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 14.2%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.8%
Others - 4.1%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 28, 2013, 02:05:45 PM
Monti might end up 4th... LOL


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 28, 2013, 02:08:38 PM
Particularly amusing as he did actually have a chance to make some sort of breakthrough. Not much of one, but it was there. lol.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 29, 2013, 02:55:30 AM
Particularly amusing as he did actually have a chance to make some sort of breakthrough. Not much of one, but it was there. lol.
He never had any chance to compete for the first place.
His only chance is a hung Senate,and an alliance with PD.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 29, 2013, 06:33:42 AM
IPR

National: Bersani 35.4% Berlusconi 28& Monti 14.8% Grillo 14.6% Ingroia 4.7%
Lombardy: Bersani 35% Berlusconi 33% Monti 13%
Sicily: Bersani and Berlusconi 34% Monti 14%
Campania: Bersani 34% Berlusconi 30% Monti 18%
Veneto: Berlusconi 40% Bersani 32% Monti 13%

EMG
Bersani 36.8% Berlusconi 28%   Monti 14.5% Grillo 13.5% Ingroia 5%

Euromedia
Bersani 35% Berlusconi 32.4%  Grillo 13.1% Monti 12.9%  Ingroia 3.5%

Tecné for all regions

Piemonte: Bersani leads by 4.6%
Liguria: Bersani leads by 12%
Lombardy: Bersani 32.9 Belusconi 31.4
Veneto: Berlusconi by 9%
Friuli: Bersani by 2
Emilia: Bersani by 24
Tuscany: Bersani by 22%
Marche: Bersani by 21%
Umbria: Bersani by 21%
Lazio: Bersani by 10.4%
Abruzzo: Bersani by 9%
Campania: Bersani by 4% (Ingroia below the threshold)
Puglia: Bersani by 5%
Basilicata: Bersani by 18%
Calabria: Bersani by 10%
Sicily: Berlusconi 28.1 Bersani 27.6
Sardinia: Bersani by 16%



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 29, 2013, 07:46:44 AM
ISPO poll on Sicily: 33 Bersani, 32 Berlusconi


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 29, 2013, 08:10:52 AM
While a different outcome was possible, Monti tanking compared to early polls was always the most likely. I wouldn't bet on him breaking 10%.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 29, 2013, 10:29:50 AM
How come Ingroia is suddenly below the threshold (!) while Monti is surging in Campania?

Looks like Veneto isn't actually a three or four point race but Friuli is close? Shouldn't that be comfortably center-right?

Sicily being a coin flip should be fun.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 29, 2013, 02:01:59 PM
Given national swing,Friuli and Piedmont are both lean-Bersani.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 29, 2013, 02:11:40 PM
While a different outcome was possible, Monti tanking compared to early polls was always the most likely. I wouldn't bet on him breaking 10%.

Yeah, it takes major political skill to siphon out Berlusconi's hardcore base (that was the only way for Monti to gain traction). A political skill Monti has made it clear he doesn't have. Running was really a stupid idea.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 29, 2013, 06:42:07 PM
AC Milan (Berlusconi) bought Balotelli today and I've seen some of my (leftist, Berlusconi hating) friends seriously say this was a campaign move by Silvio.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 30, 2013, 02:07:04 AM
Prediction: Berlusconi will win again.

Just recently, a left-managed bank in Siena did blow up and this drags Bersani and Monti down.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 30, 2013, 02:16:17 AM
Prediction: Berlusconi will win again.

Just recently, a left-managed bank in Siena did blow up and this drags Bersani and Monti down.

Yes, I've been hearing about that stuff (I watch the TV news on http://tg.la7.it/)

From what I understand, the accusations thrown at Bersani are frivolous at best. The left is dismissing them pretty confidently (which is far from being usual, you know...). Also, these kinds of scandals happen every month or so, so don't make much of it.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 30, 2013, 02:26:00 AM
Accusations against Bersani or PD are ridicolous.

The bank was controlled (55% of shares,now only 33% after an increase in capital) by a Foundation,and 13 of the 16 administrators of the Foundation were chosen by both the Province and the City of Siena,as established by a law from the '90s.
Since PD won both,then the local members had to choose the 16 administrators,but to think that the national secretary is in any way responsible of the management choices of a bank,or of documents which the Bank of Italy itself could not find during its controls on the bank,since they were hidden,is absolutely ridicolous.

Also,the mayor of Siena (PD) lost a confidence vote (through a political maneveur of a former PD councillor and current Scelta Civica candidate) because he wanted to change some administrators of the Foundation.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: palandio on January 30, 2013, 05:13:35 AM
How come Ingroia is suddenly below the threshold (!) while Monti is surging in Campania?

Looks like Veneto isn't actually a three or four point race but Friuli is close? Shouldn't that be comfortably center-right?

Sicily being a coin flip should be fun.

Don't read too much into regional "polls". I suspect much fluctuation because of very small sample sizes.
At least take all regional polls by different pollsters together.
Lombardy, Veneto, Sicily: Center-Right favored, but not safe.
FVG: At the moment toss-up, baring further movement into Berlusconi's direction.
Campania: Center-Left slightly favored, but complicated situation.
Puglia, Piemonte, Lazio: Center-Left favored.

Monti will be relatively strong in traditional DC strongholds (South, maybe Veneto), maybe he will also siphon some of the "serious" TINA vote from the Center-Right (North, South) and Center-Left (Northern Center).
Ingroia will build upon Rifondazione stronghold like Toscana and Umbria, but also Southern IdV strongholds (Abbruzzo, Molise), his own home region (Sicily) and De Magistris' home region (Campania). The situation is complicated by the fact that Sicily and Campania are toss-ups and there could be some type of "vote utile" effect in favor of the Center-Left.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 30, 2013, 09:24:09 AM
Yeah, I keep forgetting the UdC alignment with Monti and they still have those strongholds in Campania.

I guess I just expected the Ingroia/De Magistris strength to last a little longer but ultimately crumble because they are taking away from the realistic winners.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 30, 2013, 09:30:00 AM
Accusations against Bersani or PD are ridicolous.

The bank was controlled (55% of shares,now only 33% after an increase in capital) by a Foundation,and 13 of the 16 administrators of the Foundation were chosen by both the Province and the City of Siena,as established by a law from the '90s.
Since PD won both,then the local members had to choose the 16 administrators,but to think that the national secretary is in any way responsible of the management choices of a bank,or of documents which the Bank of Italy itself could not find during its controls on the bank,since they were hidden,is absolutely ridicolous.

Also,the mayor of Siena (PD) lost a confidence vote (through a political maneveur of a former PD councillor and current Scelta Civica candidate) because he wanted to change some administrators of the Foundation.

Isn't it all about perception though? How much involvement did the national PdL have in the Lazio and Lombardy scandals and look at the hit they're taking in each region in the national polls.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 30, 2013, 10:10:58 AM
Yesterday's Tecnè...

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.8%
Center-right - 28.6%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 15.2%
M5S - 13.6%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.8%
Others - 4%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 30, 2013, 11:08:53 AM
How come Ingroia is suddenly below the threshold (!) while Monti is surging in Campania?

Looks like Veneto isn't actually a three or four point race but Friuli is close? Shouldn't that be comfortably center-right?

Sicily being a coin flip should be fun.

Don't read too much into regional "polls". I suspect much fluctuation because of very small sample sizes.


The sample sizes for regional polls aren't that small. They aren't subsamples, but proper samples at regional levels.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on January 30, 2013, 12:09:07 PM
Can anyone summarize the Montepaschi di Siena story?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on January 30, 2013, 03:43:57 PM
Today there were no public buses in Naples because of a lack of gasoline...De Magistris is quicly losing popularity,and that's what's affecting Ingroia's numbers in Campania.


As for Montepaschi: I partly explained why it's "political" above.
The scandal exploded because in 2007 they bought a bank for 9 billions,when that same bank had been bought for 6 billions only a few months before.
At the time it was a discussed operation,even though they got the go-ahead from the Banca d'Italia (central bank).
Afterwards there was the financial crisis but Montepaschi performed way worse than all other banks,and now,with a change of management of last year,it's been found that there were weird and probably illegal operations,which tried to cover up losses through derivative instruments, and there might well be bribes as well.

What's really disturbing is that the president of Montepaschi at the time of the operation,Mussari,was,until last week,the president of the Italian Banking Association.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 30, 2013, 03:53:55 PM
De Magistris went from hero to villain awfully quickly.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on January 31, 2013, 06:03:01 AM
All opposition regional councillors in Lombardy have been under investigation for their expenses (PdL and Lega were already investigated).
7 of them have not been called for an interview. Their position is considered pretty comfortable (apparently the sums involved for them are very low) and the inquest is likely to end here for them. The rest has been called by magistrates to explain their expenses. No accusations have been moved yet. But it will play well for M5S and co during the campaign. It re-inforces the "they are all the same" mantra.
Silvio's papers (Libero and Il Giornale) are already in attack mode.

One of the Cllr put a Hercules DVD in his expenses. LOL!


Title: Five point race in Italy.
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 31, 2013, 03:45:07 PM
Five point race.

Tecnè

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.7%
Center-right - 28.9%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 15.1%
M5S - 14.9%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.2%
Others - 3.2%

Quorum

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.6%
Center-right - 28.7%
M5S - 15.7%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.8%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.7%
Others - 3.5%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 31, 2013, 03:51:30 PM
1) Are those national 2) How reliable are said pollsters? In the end I think this could be within 5 but Bersani still wins.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 31, 2013, 03:53:47 PM
1) Are those national 2) How reliable are said pollsters? In the end I think this could be within 5 but Bersani still wins.

1) Yes
2) Tecnè has been cited before as reputable.


Title: Re: Four point race in Italy.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 31, 2013, 03:54:52 PM
Four point race.

Tecnè

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.7%
Center-right - 28.9%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 15.1%
M5S - 14.9%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.2%
Others - 3.2%

Quorum

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.6%
Center-right - 28.7%
M5S - 15.7%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.8%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.7%
Others - 3.5%


DEAR GOD


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 31, 2013, 03:57:07 PM
We've still got a few weeks left. I'll only panic if it's <3 in the last week.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 31, 2013, 03:58:39 PM
The Italian people are utter idiots if they elect Berlusconi again.

But I'd still wait for the Carinthia result the week after Italy, so they are likely not the only ones.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 31, 2013, 04:20:00 PM
Excuse my idiocy. It's five points, not four.  :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Hash on January 31, 2013, 04:47:17 PM
Italy is a beautiful country, but their elections never fail to be depressing. It's mind boggling how Berlusconi can still be taken seriously (let alone a serious contender for PM again) by nearly a third of voters and turned this election, which was supposed to mark the end of the post-94 era, into another close election in which he's a strong contender.

But Hash's Rules of Elections #1: Voters are idiots.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 31, 2013, 05:07:24 PM
We've still got a few weeks left. I'll only panic if it's <3 in the last week.

There's a reason why the left wanted the election sooner rather than later. "A few weeks left" is far from necessarily a good thing for Silvio critics.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 31, 2013, 05:18:21 PM
Italy is a beautiful country, but their elections never fail to be depressing. It's mind boggling how Berlusconi can still be taken seriously (let alone a serious contender for PM again) by nearly a third of voters and turned this election, which was supposed to mark the end of the post-94 era, into another close election in which he's a strong contender.

But Hash's Rules of Elections #1: Voters are idiots.

Yeah, basically.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 31, 2013, 07:21:32 PM
I am on Panic Mode now. Italy, Italy, Italy... I love you, but I won't come back there until you forget Berlusconi/until he dies.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peeperkorn on January 31, 2013, 09:51:05 PM
I wrote a post pro Berlusconi.

It was deleted ipso facto.

Love your freedom of speech.

JulioMadrid: Why don't you look at your country if you want corruption?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 31, 2013, 10:06:31 PM
I wrote a post pro Berlusconi.

It was deleted ipso facto.

Love your freedom of speech.

I spoke out against that posts' deletion FTR.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Velasco on January 31, 2013, 10:11:40 PM
I wrote a post pro Berlusconi.

It was deleted ipso facto.

Love your freedom of speech.

JulioMadrid: Why don't you look at your country if you want corruption?

Esto es como ver la paja en el ojo ajeno y no ver la viga en el propio. ¿Conoces el refrán?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peeperkorn on January 31, 2013, 10:12:06 PM
I wrote a post pro Berlusconi.

It was deleted ipso facto.

Love your freedom of speech.

I spoke out against that posts' deletion FTR.

Thanks. I didn't understand WHY it was deleted.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peeperkorn on January 31, 2013, 10:13:04 PM
I wrote a post pro Berlusconi.

It was deleted ipso facto.

Love your freedom of speech.

JulioMadrid: Why don't you look at your country if you want corruption?

Esto es como ver la paja en el ojo ajeno y no ver la viga en el propio. ¿Conoces el refrán?

Pues busca casos de corrupción en Uruguay en los últimos 25 años, ultratón.

Lo de España es infinitamente más terrible que toda la corrupción italiana junta de aquí a esta época.

Traducción:

So try to find out cases of corruption in Uruguay at the last 25 years, Ultratón


What's happening in Spain today is much more terrible than all the corruption of Italy together since World War II.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Velasco on January 31, 2013, 10:21:40 PM
I wrote a post pro Berlusconi.

It was deleted ipso facto.

Love your freedom of speech.

JulioMadrid: Why don't you look at your country if you want corruption?

Esto es como ver la paja en el ojo ajeno y no ver la viga en el propio. ¿Conoces el refrán?

Pues busca casos de corrupción en Uruguay en los últimos 25 años, ultratón.

Lo de España es infinitamente más terrible que toda la corrupción italiana junta de aquí a esta época.

Traducción:

What's living Spain today is much more terrible than all the corruption of Italy since World War II.

Ni de coña la corrupción española es peor que la italiana. Prefiero no mencionar a la mafia, la camorra, la 'ndragheta o la logia P2... Por supuesto la corrupción aquí también apesta y es terrible pero eso no descalifica a cualquier ciudadano de este país para comentar la política italiana. Tampoco me gustaron las declaraciones de cierto presidente uruguayo sobre la naturaleza corrupta de Argentina, ya que lo mencionas. Y sí, en Argentina hay corrupción. Procura dar menos lecciones de moralidad basadas en una supuesta superioridad nacional, colega.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on January 31, 2013, 10:40:58 PM
I wrote a post pro Berlusconi.

It was deleted ipso facto.

Love your freedom of speech.

JulioMadrid: Why don't you look at your country if you want corruption?

Esto es como ver la paja en el ojo ajeno y no ver la viga en el propio. ¿Conoces el refrán?

Pues busca casos de corrupción en Uruguay en los últimos 25 años, ultratón.

Lo de España es infinitamente más terrible que toda la corrupción italiana junta de aquí a esta época.

Traducción:

What's living Spain today is much more terrible than all the corruption of Italy since World War II.

Ni de coña la corrupción española es peor que la italiana. Prefiero no mencionar a la mafia, la camoprra, la 'ndragheta o la logia P2... Por supuesto la corrupción aquí también apesta y es terrible pero eso no descalifica a cualquier ciudadano de este país para comentar la política italiana. Tampoco me gustaron las declaraciones de cierto presidente uruguayo sobre la naturaleza corrupta de Argentina, ya que lo menciones. Y sí, en Argentina hay corrupción. Procura dar menos lecciones de moralidad basadas en una supuesta superioridad nacional, colega.

While I understand some Spanish, maybe it would be a good idea to have the English-pnly speakers take part in the discussion ...

From the Transparency International 2012 Corruption Perception Index (http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2012/results/)

Uruguay:                  Rank 20, score 72
Spain                        Rank 30, Score 65
Italy:                        Rank 72, score 42
Argentina                  Rank 102, score 35

For reference:
USA                         Rank 19, score 73
Ghana                      Rank 65, score 45
India                        Rank 94, score 36

Oh, and by the way - I hate censorship, and just start to wonder whether I mad a mistake in my moderator rating.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peeperkorn on January 31, 2013, 10:41:47 PM
Argentina está a otro nivel de corrupción.

Argentina is in other level of corruption.

But we are not Argentina.



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peeperkorn on January 31, 2013, 10:42:56 PM
I wrote a post pro Berlusconi.

It was deleted ipso facto.

Love your freedom of speech.

JulioMadrid: Why don't you look at your country if you want corruption?

Esto es como ver la paja en el ojo ajeno y no ver la viga en el propio. ¿Conoces el refrán?

Pues busca casos de corrupción en Uruguay en los últimos 25 años, ultratón.

Lo de España es infinitamente más terrible que toda la corrupción italiana junta de aquí a esta época.

Traducción:

What's living Spain today is much more terrible than all the corruption of Italy since World War II.

Ni de coña la corrupción española es peor que la italiana. Prefiero no mencionar a la mafia, la camoprra, la 'ndragheta o la logia P2... Por supuesto la corrupción aquí también apesta y es terrible pero eso no descalifica a cualquier ciudadano de este país para comentar la política italiana. Tampoco me gustaron las declaraciones de cierto presidente uruguayo sobre la naturaleza corrupta de Argentina, ya que lo menciones. Y sí, en Argentina hay corrupción. Procura dar menos lecciones de moralidad basadas en una supuesta superioridad nacional, colega.

While I understand some Spanish, maybe it would be a good idea to have the English-pnly speakers take part in the discussion ...

From the Transparency International 2012 Corruption Perception Index (http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2012/results/)

Uruguay:                  Rank 20, score 72
Spain                        Rank 30, Score 65
Italy:                        Rank 72, score 42
Argentina                  Rank 102, score 35

For reference:
USA                         Rank 19, score 73
Ghana                      Rank 65, score 45
India                        Rank 94, score 36

Oh, and by the way - I hate censorship, and just start to wonder whether I mad a mistake in my moderator rating.

Thanks.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Velasco on January 31, 2013, 10:51:37 PM

From the Transparency International 2012 Corruption Perception Index (http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2012/results/)

Uruguay:                  Rank 20, score 72
Spain                        Rank 30, Score 65
Italy:                        Rank 72, score 42
Argentina                  Rank 102, score 35

For reference:
USA                         Rank 19, score 73
Ghana                      Rank 65, score 45
India                        Rank 94, score 36

Oh, and by the way - I hate censorship, and just start to wonder whether I mad a mistake in my moderator rating.

Thanks.
[/quote]

Good. Look at the ranking; that proves your point about your comparison between Spain's and Italy's corruption. Do you think that discussion is meaningful? Btw, as far as I'm concerned you can make propaganda of Berlusconi all the way long. I lack of censorship's tools and, oth, I don't believe in censors. Oh dear, I love nationalists and the Silvio Fan Club.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peeperkorn on January 31, 2013, 10:59:09 PM

From the Transparency International 2012 Corruption Perception Index (http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2012/results/)

Uruguay:                  Rank 20, score 72
Spain                        Rank 30, Score 65
Italy:                        Rank 72, score 42
Argentina                  Rank 102, score 35

For reference:
USA                         Rank 19, score 73
Ghana                      Rank 65, score 45
India                        Rank 94, score 36

Oh, and by the way - I hate censorship, and just start to wonder whether I mad a mistake in my moderator rating.

Thanks.

Quote
Good. Look at the ranking; that proves your point about your comparison between Spain's and Italy's corruption. Do you think that discussion is meaningful? Btw, as far as I'm concerned you can make propaganda of Berlusconi all the way long. I lack of censorship's tools and, oth, I don't believe in censors. Oh dear, I love nationalists and the Silvio Fan Club.

At least Berlusconi didn't steal money from its own party.

He organised some parties with cute women....oh, the horror!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on January 31, 2013, 11:09:44 PM
For rememberance, those policies were taken after elections threads turned into partisan debates and ultra-hackness.

Anyways, any political debates belongs to International Discussion, not International Elections, which is for analysis and description of elections, in the commonly accepted view.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 31, 2013, 11:17:47 PM
So every negative comment about Berlusconi is going to be removed, too?

I agree that this should be about discussing the news and dynamics of the race but let's not excuse one type of opinion and not another.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 01, 2013, 12:00:10 AM
So every negative comment about Berlusconi is going to be removed, too?

I agree that this should be about discussing the news and dynamics of the race but let's not excuse one type of opinion and not another.

Sure, it should be balanced. But, I'm not the moderator and a forum isn't a democracy either.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 01, 2013, 03:56:38 AM

From the Transparency International 2012 Corruption Perception Index (http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2012/results/)

Uruguay:                  Rank 20, score 72
Spain                        Rank 30, Score 65
Italy:                        Rank 72, score 42
Argentina                  Rank 102, score 35

For reference:
USA                         Rank 19, score 73
Ghana                      Rank 65, score 45
India                        Rank 94, score 36

Oh, and by the way - I hate censorship, and just start to wonder whether I mad a mistake in my moderator rating.

Thanks.

Quote
Good. Look at the ranking; that proves your point about your comparison between Spain's and Italy's corruption. Do you think that discussion is meaningful? Btw, as far as I'm concerned you can make propaganda of Berlusconi all the way long. I lack of censorship's tools and, oth, I don't believe in censors. Oh dear, I love nationalists and the Silvio Fan Club.

At least Berlusconi didn't steal money from its own party.

He organised some parties with cute women....oh, the horror!

Hey,look,the average italian voter!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on February 01, 2013, 04:07:33 AM
SWG, quite reliable 5% of difference:

http://www.sondaitalia.com/2013/02/il-sondaggio-elettorale-swg-per-agora.html

I don't share the typical angosaxon view, that the voter should be polarized, pro-Berlusconi / against Berlusconi. I judge the programs of center-right and center-left as equally a failure and a burden for Italy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 01, 2013, 04:35:51 AM
Al uruguayo:

Ojalá tuvieramos un Presidente como José Mujica... Pero no lo tenemos // I hope we had a President like José Mujica, but we don't.

Me aterra la corrupción en España, me pone de los nervios, y no sé si será peor o mejor que la italiana (creo que no está tan extendida) pero eso me da igual. Como español que soy, hago lo que puedo para evitar que las cosas sigan así: voy a la sede del PP a protestar, me quejo en twitter, voy a manifestaciones...
Como sabrás no vivo en Italia, no puedo hacer lo mismo que aquí, así que mi mejor y única forma de protestar es no volver hasta que se olviden del payaso senil y cuasi-mafioso que es Berlusconi.

I'm terrified because of the corruption in Spain, it makes me anxious, and I don't even know if it's worse here than in Italy (I think it's not that spreaded out here) but it does't matter.
As the Spaniard I am, I do what I can to prevent things continue like this: I go to PP headquarters to protest, I complain about it on twitter, I go to every demonstration I can...
As you may know, I don't live in Italy, I can't do the same I do here, so my best and only way of protesting is not going there until they reject that senile and almost-mafioso clown that Berlusconi is.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 01, 2013, 07:36:59 AM
So every negative comment about Berlusconi is going to be removed, too?

I agree that this should be about discussing the news and dynamics of the race but let's not excuse one type of opinion and not another.

Sure, it should be balanced. But, I'm not the moderator and a forum isn't a democracy either.

Ok, I'm with you up until "the forum isn't a democracy." I'm sorry but is that justifying deletion of posts in favor of Berlusconi? There isn't an established policy against PdL/Berlusconi set out by the owner of this site. It isn't in the ToS. If there are other reasons for deleting a post that happens to be praising Silvio, fine. But don't excuse a moderator deleting a political opinion just because he doesn't like it and use "this place isn't a democracy" as justification.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on February 01, 2013, 07:41:07 AM
I cmpletely agree with Keystone Phil


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 01, 2013, 07:50:02 AM
I haven't read Peeperkorn's post, but he tends to be very, very offensive. I doubt it's only because he praised Berlusconi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 01, 2013, 08:48:38 AM
I haven't read Peeperkorn's post, but he tends to be very, very offensive. I doubt it's only because he praised Berlusconi.

He claims he didn't receive any infraction points though so it's weird.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Velasco on February 01, 2013, 09:01:57 AM
Try to read his post quoted in the Goldmine. That guy is hilarious, and in this case it's not for good.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 01, 2013, 10:44:42 AM
Why is the Five Star Movement on the rise again?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 01, 2013, 10:55:11 AM
Why is the Five Star Movement on the rise again?

I imagine this local scandal around local councilors in Lombardy is helping. PdL members were originally the target but PD members have recently been implicated. It plays right into M5S points about both major parties.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on February 01, 2013, 11:50:20 AM
Comrade Moderator - please: We have had some posts that could have served as entrance point for an interesting debate on the socio-psychology of part of the italian electorate, or just have lead into fruitlless pro / contra Berlusconi ranting.

Why did you remove these posts so quickly, instead of waiting which way the discussion will go?

I have the feeling that most participants here are able to prevent this thread degenerating into an x-th debate on Berlusconi's demeanor.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 01, 2013, 02:11:18 PM
The Balotelli Effect - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/the-balotelli-effect-silvio-berlusconi-surges-ahead-in-polls-weeks-before-italian-general-election-8477609.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/the-balotelli-effect-silvio-berlusconi-surges-ahead-in-polls-weeks-before-italian-general-election-8477609.html)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peeperkorn on February 01, 2013, 04:24:34 PM
The Balotelli Effect - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/the-balotelli-effect-silvio-berlusconi-surges-ahead-in-polls-weeks-before-italian-general-election-8477609.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/the-balotelli-effect-silvio-berlusconi-surges-ahead-in-polls-weeks-before-italian-general-election-8477609.html)

()

You know what it means, right?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 01, 2013, 04:40:19 PM
I don't think his fingers are at the exact angle for it to be what I'm thinking. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 01, 2013, 04:43:22 PM
Joke country.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 01, 2013, 05:46:34 PM
Monti plays the Red Scare card too now. What a despicable moron.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 01, 2013, 05:52:47 PM
Monti plays the Red Scare card too now. What a despicable moron.

Is there audio of it? I saw the headlines but I can't imagine actually hearing the guy attack anything/anyone.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 01, 2013, 06:03:59 PM
Monti plays the Red Scare card too now. What a despicable moron.

Is there audio of it? I saw the headlines but I can't imagine actually hearing the guy attack anything/anyone.

http://tg.la7.it/politica/video-i661442

He actually has been doing that continually in the past few weeks, despite always keeping his robotic monotone.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 01, 2013, 06:06:44 PM
I hate your sig, Peepkorn: where are Álvarez-Cascos and Bárcenas?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 01, 2013, 06:19:15 PM
I hate your sig, Peepkorn: where are Álvarez-Cascos and Bárcenas?

Take it to a thread about the inferior Southern European country. This is about Italy's election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 01, 2013, 08:01:39 PM
I deleted the post because it was vulgar. It wasn't exactly unfunny, but, you know.

I haven't read Peeperkorn's post, but he tends to be very, very offensive. I doubt it's only because he praised Berlusconi.

He claims he didn't receive any infraction points though so it's weird.

He claims that quite correctly.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Velasco on February 01, 2013, 10:47:25 PM
I hate your sig, Peepkorn: where are Álvarez-Cascos and Bárcenas?

Take it to a thread about the inferior Southern European country. This is about Italy's election.

LOL, Phil. That score in the Euro final really hurt you. As a citizen of the EU and naive Europeist, I protest energetically :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 01, 2013, 10:52:41 PM
I hate your sig, Peepkorn: where are Álvarez-Cascos and Bárcenas?

Take it to a thread about the inferior Southern European country. This is about Italy's election.

LOL, Phil. That score in the Euro final really hurt you. As a citizen of the EU and naive Europeist, I protest energetically :D

Speaking of scores:

Italy -  4
Spain -  1

Call me back in maybe thirty years when you guys catch up.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 02, 2013, 08:25:14 PM
Grillo asked Al Quaeda to bomb the Italian Parliament. Yes, for real.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 02, 2013, 08:25:54 PM
Joke candidate. Not much more I can say without getting infracted.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 02, 2013, 09:11:14 PM
Grillo asked Al Quaeda to bomb the Italian Parliament. Yes, for real.

So we got our answer: Monti and Co. will get third.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 02, 2013, 09:22:37 PM
Grillo asked Al Quaeda to bomb the Italian Parliament. Yes, for real.

So we got our answer: Monti and Co. will get third.

Don't be so sure. This might actually help Grillo, you know.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 03, 2013, 07:11:04 AM
Berlusconi promises to give back IMU to everybody who paid it.

Can we bet on the first municipality to go bankrupt?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 03, 2013, 08:58:06 AM
Has anyone noticed how Berlusconi bought Mario Balotelli recently for his AC Milan to win the close Lombardy election ? It is thought that the purchase might win him a few points there and therefore the election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 03, 2013, 08:59:12 AM
So long as he doesn't win the national vote. Worst nightmare: 2006 scenario reversed.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 03, 2013, 09:04:52 AM
Has anyone noticed how Berlusconi bought Mario Balotelli recently for his AC Milan to win the close Lombardy election ? It is thought that the purchase might win him a few points there and therefore the election.

I only mentioned this twice already.

An analyst suggested he could gain up to four hundred thousand extra votes. Seems totally ridiculous to me but who knows?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 03, 2013, 09:07:40 AM
Has anyone noticed how Berlusconi bought Mario Balotelli recently for his AC Milan to win the close Lombardy election ? It is thought that the purchase might win him a few points there and therefore the election.

I only mentioned this twice already.

An analyst suggested he could gain up to four hundred thousand extra votes. Seems totally ridiculous to me but who knows?

I read it in the Standard today:

http://derstandard.at/1358305374608/Balotelli-der-Wahlhelfer

I didn't even hear before that Balotelli changed to Milan, but yeah, he seems popular enough to help Berlusconi there.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 03, 2013, 09:11:28 AM
Everything that's wrong with football right there.

And about twelve percent of what's wrong with Italy.


Title: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 03, 2013, 10:24:35 AM
Demopolis from yesterday...

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.8%
Center-right - 28%
M5S - 16.5%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 15.4%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.3%


SpinCon (for the laughs) from yesterday...

Italia. Bene Comune - 32.3%
Center-right - 30.5%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 11.5%
M5S - 11.5%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.8%
Others - 8.5%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 03, 2013, 10:26:41 AM
So still a 5-6 pt race. Whew.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 03, 2013, 10:28:24 AM

I have no idea why this relieves you. More time on the clock is regarded as a plus for Berlusconi and the 2006 polling ended with the left up about five points.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 03, 2013, 10:34:05 AM
I'd rather it be 5-6 than say, 2-3. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on February 03, 2013, 11:24:26 AM
Grillo asked Al Quaeda to bomb the Italian Parliament. Yes, for real.

So we got our answer: Monti and Co. will get third.

Don't be so sure. This might actually help Grillo, you know.

The choice between Mussolini and Ben Laden must be agonizing for the Italian Right. Which one will amuse the rest of Europe the most?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 03, 2013, 11:30:59 AM
Grillo asked Al Quaeda to bomb the Italian Parliament. Yes, for real.

So we got our answer: Monti and Co. will get third.

Don't be so sure. This might actually help Grillo, you know.

The choice between Mussolini and Ben Laden must be agonizing for the Italian Right. Which one will amuse the rest of Europe the most?

Given the people you are talking about, I'm not sure 'agonizing' is the most accurate word here.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on February 03, 2013, 12:40:38 PM
This whole sh**t is so wrong. On all levels.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 03, 2013, 12:42:57 PM
I'm at a campaign meeting. Someone said Grillo claims he never made the al Qaeda remark.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on February 03, 2013, 01:10:30 PM
Grillo asked Al Quaeda to bomb the Italian Parliament. Yes, for real.

So we got our answer: Monti and Co. will get third.

Don't be so sure. This might actually help Grillo, you know.

The choice between Mussolini and Ben Laden must be agonizing for the Italian Right. Which one will amuse the rest of Europe the most?

Given the people you are talking about, I'm not sure 'agonizing' is the most accurate word here.

If possible they'd have both, of course.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Simfan34 on February 03, 2013, 01:31:33 PM
This is hilarious. I cannot wait for the inevitable aneurism The Economist will have if Berlusconi wins this. How long will a Berlusconi government likely last?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Kitteh on February 03, 2013, 02:32:54 PM
I have to admit, there is a very tiny part of me that wants to see Berlusconi elected just because it would be hilarious. Fortunately the sane part of me still is in control :p


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 03, 2013, 04:38:58 PM
Balotelli scores opener. Udinese ties. Milan given a controversial last minute penalty kick and Balotelli scores the winner. Oh, Silvio...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 03, 2013, 04:59:02 PM
I'm at a campaign meeting. Someone said Grillo claims he never made the al Qaeda remark.

He was recorded on TV. LOL.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 03, 2013, 05:06:12 PM
Demopolis from yesterday...

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.8%
Center-right - 28%
M5S - 16.5%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 15.4%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.3%

I found slightly different numbers...

Una coalizione di Centro Sinistra guidata da Bersani: 34,2%
Una coalizione di Centro Destra guidata da Berlusconi: 27,4%
Una coalizione di Centro guidata da Monti: 15,5%
Movimento 5 Stelle di Grillo: 16%
Rivoluzione Civile di Ingroia: 4,5%
Altre coalizioni o liste: sotto il 2,4%
Non sa: 20%
Affluenza: 75%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 03, 2013, 07:40:34 PM
Apparently Berlusconi's big economic speech today was about repealing the new property tax (replacing lost revenue by striking a tax deal with Switzerland), the regional business tax and cut personal income tax. Naturally there's nothing about how to finance any of this.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 03, 2013, 07:44:09 PM
Apparently Berlusconi's big economic speech today was about repealing the new property tax (replacing lost revenue by striking a tax deal with Switzerland), the regional business tax and cut personal income tax. Naturally there's nothing about how to finance any of this.

It's actually worse than that. He said he would pay taxpayers back for the additional taxes they have already paid under Monti. A 2-year-old kid would understand the trick.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 03, 2013, 07:58:54 PM
As usual with him, lowest common denominator.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Lurker on February 03, 2013, 08:22:44 PM
How does the majority bonus thing work? and does the bonus apply to the senate as well?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 03, 2013, 08:25:03 PM
Whichever coalition wins a plurality of the Chamber of Deputies popular vote automatically gets ~54%, or 340ish, seats. In 2006 Prodi beat Berlusconi by 0.1% as an example. Senate's more complicated, ask one of the Italians here.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zuza on February 03, 2013, 08:51:20 PM
For Senate elections bonus applied, but on a regional rather than national basis.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 03, 2013, 09:06:26 PM
How does the majority bonus thing work? and does the bonus apply to the senate as well?

Hi Lurker, I encourage you to read the introduction I wrote in the opening posts of this thread. By post#4 and #5, there's everything you need to know about the intricacies of the Italian voting system. :)

Anyway, yes, the short version is as the others said. The coalition with the most vote gets a guaranteed national 340-seats blocs for the House, and a similar guaranteed seat block - but at the regional level - for the Senate.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 04, 2013, 04:25:43 AM
New ISPO poll:

PD    30,8
Sel    4,9
Altri di centrosinistra    0,9

Totale coalizione di centrosinistra    36,6

Pdl    19,1
Lega Nord    4,9
La Destra    1,6
Fratelli d'Italia - Centrodestra Nazionale    2
Altri di centrodestra    0,5

Totale coalizione di centrodestra    28,1

Udc    3,8
Fli    1,1
Scelta Civica con Monti per l'Italia    9,7
Movimento 5 Stelle    13,6
Rivoluzione Civile    4,6
Amnistia giustizia e libertà - Pannella    1,1
Fare per Fermare il Declino    1,3
Altro partito    0,1


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 04, 2013, 04:40:09 AM
The left-margin declined by 2% though in the past week from about 10.5% in their Jan. 24 poll to about 8.5% now in the latest poll.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Beet on February 04, 2013, 10:34:11 AM
Sh_t (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/scandals-in-spain-italy-has-euro-crisis-bubbling-again/article8158662/).


Title: Now it's four and Grillo is rebounding.
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 04, 2013, 12:38:49 PM
Tecnè

Italia. Bene Comune - 32.9%
Center-right - 28.9%
M5S - 16.5%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.2%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.1%
Others - 3.4%

Looks like Grillo's comments helped. Dear Lord.


Title: Re: Now it's four and Grillo is rebounding.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 04, 2013, 03:59:59 PM
What if 1994 strikes and Grillo wins?


Title: Re: Now it's four and Grillo is rebounding.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 04, 2013, 04:13:19 PM

He can't technically "win" since he doesn't have a coalition and thus doesn't qualify for the majority bonus. I have absolutely no idea what happens if an individual party comes ahead of all the coalitions. That would be a heck of a crazy situation to see, though. After all, Grillo doesn't even actually want to rule. His main plank is end representative democracy altogether and replace it with some fuzzy internet stuff nobody understands a sh*t about.


Title: Re: Now it's four and Grillo is rebounding.
Post by: Insula Dei on February 04, 2013, 04:18:08 PM

He can't technically "win" since he doesn't have a coalition and thus doesn't qualify for the majority bonus. I have absolutely no idea what happens if an individual party comes ahead of all the coalitions. That would be a heck of a crazy situation to see, though. After all, Grillo doesn't even actually want to rule. His main plank is end representative democracy altogether and replace it with some fuzzy internet stuff nobody understands a sh*t about.

Wow, it's hard to understate how much of a joke Grillo really is.

On a completely unrelated note, whatever happened to UDEUR? Are they in the Third Pole? Do they even exist anymore?


Title: Re: Now it's four and Grillo is rebounding.
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 04, 2013, 04:20:50 PM

He can't technically "win" since he doesn't have a coalition and thus doesn't qualify for the majority bonus. I have absolutely no idea what happens if an individual party comes ahead of all the coalitions. That would be a heck of a crazy situation to see, though. After all, Grillo doesn't even actually want to rule. His main plank is end representative democracy altogether and replace it with some fuzzy internet stuff nobody understands a sh*t about.

And remember that he personally can't win because of his criminal history.

Cue to the Berlusconi jokes...


And UDEUR now exists in Campania as UDEUR Populars for the South. It supposedly fell into the Third Pole a few years ago.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zuza on February 04, 2013, 05:00:56 PM
Wikipedia states that UDEUR is now a part of Project South list which in turn is a part of Berlusconi's coalition.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 04, 2013, 06:48:30 PM
Is Demopolis biased? Their latest poll (made 01/31-02/01) has the left still 8 points ahead.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 04, 2013, 07:36:31 PM
Is Demopolis biased? Their latest poll (made 01/31-02/01) has the left still 8 points ahead.

Do you mean EMG? The latest Demopolis I can find has the margin at six.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 04, 2013, 09:24:38 PM
Is Demopolis biased? Their latest poll (made 01/31-02/01) has the left still 8 points ahead.

Do you mean EMG? The latest Demopolis I can find has the margin at six.

Yeah, sorry, meant EMG.

For some reason I though la7's polls were conducted by Demopolis... :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 05, 2013, 10:46:41 AM
M5Surge

SWG from today...

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.6%
Center-right - 28.1%
M5S - 18%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.3%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.9%
Other - 2.1%


Lorien

Italia. Bene Comune - 35.2%
Center-right - 29.8%
M5S - 14.8%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.4%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.7%
Other - 2.1%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Hash on February 05, 2013, 11:07:23 AM
So calling for a terrorist attack on a democratic institution/parliament in Italy is a vote-winner? You never cease to amaze, Italy.


Title: Re: Now it's four and Grillo is rebounding.
Post by: minionofmidas on February 05, 2013, 02:39:12 PM
Then we party like it's 1994.


Title: Re: Now it's four and Grillo is rebounding.
Post by: minionofmidas on February 05, 2013, 02:52:48 PM

He can't technically "win" since he doesn't have a coalition and thus doesn't qualify for the majority bonus. I have absolutely no idea what happens if an individual party comes ahead of all the coalitions.
Are you sure of this? the (Italian) wiki just states "the coalition that wins the most votes" as if it were self-evident that no single list could beat the strongest coalition. I did find this (http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/notizie/2013-01-08/legge-calderoli-2702005-112946.shtml?uuid=AbcbpGIH) stating "the list or coalition".


Title: Re: Now it's four and Grillo is rebounding.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 05, 2013, 03:01:36 PM

He can't technically "win" since he doesn't have a coalition and thus doesn't qualify for the majority bonus. I have absolutely no idea what happens if an individual party comes ahead of all the coalitions.
Are you sure of this? the (Italian) wiki just states "the coalition that wins the most votes" as if it were self-evident that no single list could beat the strongest coalition. I did find this (http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/notizie/2013-01-08/legge-calderoli-2702005-112946.shtml?uuid=AbcbpGIH) stating "the list or coalition".


That would mean that a coalition getting less votes than the M5S alone would still win 54% of seats? The ridiculousness of Italy's electoral system just took a whole new proportion.

Ah wait, so Sole24Ore has a different interpretation? Interesting... Don't know how reliable that is. I hope the text of the law is available somewhere.


Title: Re: Now it's four and Grillo is rebounding.
Post by: minionofmidas on February 05, 2013, 03:39:54 PM
That would mean that a coalition getting less votes than the M5S alone would still win 54% of seats? The ridiculousness of Italy's electoral system just took a whole new proportion.
I am reasonably certain that that is not the case. Either a list winning still gets the bonus, or there is no bonus. One or the other.

Also, if I read the Italian wiki correctly a party polling over 4% that is a member of a coalition polling below 10% still gets in? That could be relevant for Monti...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on February 05, 2013, 03:52:40 PM
It's weird how the thread's titled "now it's four and Grillo's rebounding" on the index, and yet in this subforum it's just regular old Italy 2013: The official thread.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 05, 2013, 03:57:15 PM
Phil likes to mess up with thread titles.


That would mean that a coalition getting less votes than the M5S alone would still win 54% of seats? The ridiculousness of Italy's electoral system just took a whole new proportion.
I am reasonably certain that that is not the case. Either a list winning still gets the bonus, or there is no bonus. One or the other.

Also, if I read the Italian wiki correctly a party polling over 4% that is a member of a coalition polling below 10% still gets in? That could be relevant for Monti...

Yeah, A coalition polling < 10% is not counted as a coalition but rather as individual parties running on their own. The general, non-coalition threshold for parties is 4%. LOL, that would be really funny if the Monti coalition got < 10%, with only the Monti list > 4%. This would mean Fini and Casini completely shot themselves in the foot with that deal with Monti... :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 05, 2013, 04:00:50 PM

I like to do that when there are developments to bring attention to the thread. If you don't want to see that, don't quote the post.  :P


I don't think Monti's coalition would dip below 10% (and I certainly hope it wouldn't because then FLI/Fini are screwed).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 05, 2013, 04:03:50 PM

I like to do that when there are developments to bring attention to the thread. If you don't want to see that, don't quote the post.  :P

Oh, I don't really care. :P But it might be confusing sometimes.


Title: Re: oic
Post by: Leftbehind on February 05, 2013, 04:57:31 PM
So that's why.


Title: Silvio's brother invites major controversy.
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 05, 2013, 10:18:48 PM
Silvio's brother (publisher of Il Giornale) is creating a storm over what he said at a rally about Balotelli:

"Let's go and watch our household's little n***** [play]," he said to laughter.
"The girls here are all invited as well. They have the chance to meet Silvio Berlusconi."



http://www.goal.com/en/news/10/italy/2013/02/06/3729919/balotelli-is-ac-milans-little-n-paolo-berlusconi?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed (http://www.goal.com/en/news/10/italy/2013/02/06/3729919/balotelli-is-ac-milans-little-n-paolo-berlusconi?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 05, 2013, 10:29:24 PM
Ugh. Just ugh.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 06, 2013, 03:04:39 AM
This is Italy. Don't expect that to be a game changer.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 06, 2013, 03:09:00 AM
This is Italy. Don't expect that to be a game changer.

Well, politically, Italy is awful since the Roman Empire (and let's not talk of the mafia). They should really stick to food and history books (and exporting smart kids to Paris suburbs).

I'm kidding, but the fact than DC was in power for decades and than Berlusconi always seems to find a way back is really depressing about that country, which deserves better than crooks.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 06, 2013, 12:47:11 PM
A lot of sondaggis today:

()

()

...

ISPO:

Pdl 21,2
Lega Nord 5,2
La Destra 1,4
FdI 1,5
Altri Cdx 0,5

Totale Cdx 29,8

Pd 29,9
Sel 4,2
CD 0,8

Totale Csx 34,9

Lista Monti 9,5
Udc 2
Fli 1

Totale CxM 12,5

M5S 16,4

RC Ingroia 3,9

FiD Giannino 1

Amnistia 0,8

http://www.meridianamagazine.org/20130206/il-sondaggio-ispo-conferma-la-rimonta-del-centrodestra-ora-a-5-da-bersani-cresce-ancora-grillo-rischia-monti/#.URKWtoGnt8E

...

IPR Marketing:

()


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 06, 2013, 12:49:58 PM
Compared with the previous ISPO poll that I posted 1 page before, the Left lost 1.7% and the Right gained 1.7% ...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 06, 2013, 01:52:27 PM
Looks like Bersani is stuck with trying to make an alliance with Vendola and Monti for a Senate majority (at least that's the story the major Italian papers are pushing) and the latter two aren't making it easy. Vendola is saying it's not possible to make it work. 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 06, 2013, 02:10:41 PM
Which of these pollsters is considered the most accurate?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 06, 2013, 02:30:49 PM
Tecnè does the daily tracker (and is the one showing the closest margin) but I doubt that's the most accurate.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 06, 2013, 02:32:01 PM
I'll ask again, what's EMG's track record? They are the ones showing the widest margins for the left.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 06, 2013, 05:08:55 PM
Berlusconi claims he is within 2.3 points of IBC. Must be his internal but non-internals aren't too far from this.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 06, 2013, 05:10:28 PM
I was gonna ask "what sort of national candidate publicly talks about their internals", but this is SB and therefore the regular playbook is totally irrelevant. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 06, 2013, 05:17:35 PM
I was gonna ask "what sort of national candidate publicly talks about their internals", but this is SB and therefore the regular playbook is totally irrelevant. :P

Well, I'm sure it was a Euromedia poll which probably doesn't technically count as an internal pollster but is affiliated with Berlusconi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 07, 2013, 03:35:17 AM
All pollsters except Euromedia and SpinCon are at the same (decent) level of accuracy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 07, 2013, 03:41:50 PM
Overseas voting began today. Ballots are to be mailed in by February 21st.

Just under three hours until the Senator Giordano-Deputy Berardi campaign kickoff. It's going to be held less than ten minutes from me. Pretty cool to have something like this in my own neighborhood.

There's supposed to be a special guest, too. Silvio? ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 08, 2013, 10:24:05 AM
Remember that in the next 2 weeks, polls will be prohibited in Italy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 08, 2013, 10:34:48 AM
Remember that in the next 2 weeks, polls will be prohibited in Italy.

So let's squeeze in as many as possible! :)

SWG

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.8%
Center-right - 27.8%
M5S - 18.8% (!)
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.4%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.1%
Other - 2.1%

Demos

Italia. Bene Comune - 34.1%
Center-right - 28.6%
M5S - 16%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 16%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4%
Other - 1.3%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 08, 2013, 10:52:08 AM
Ingroia is saying he will offer his votes to IBC in the Senate if they don't partner with Monti but how would that work? They're already running alone and they're not going to win a plurality in any region to get seats...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 08, 2013, 10:35:35 PM
An average of the most recent polls gives 34.9% for the left and 29.2% for the right.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 08, 2013, 10:39:47 PM
So looking like a 4-5 point IBC victory at this stage, so long as we don't get a 2006 repeat. If there are any last minute shifts we won't know.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 08, 2013, 10:45:09 PM
Was today the actual last day for polling?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 08, 2013, 10:46:11 PM
So looking like a 4-5 point IBC victory at this stage, so long as we don't get a 2006 repeat. If there are any last minute shifts we won't know.

Yeah, this 2-week ban on poll is ridiculous. I'm all for having a "period of calm" right before the election, but a couple day (as it is in France) should be enough.

Anyway, the average lead of the left in 2006 was 5.5 points. Now it's 5.7... :o :(


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 08, 2013, 10:47:02 PM
Was today the actual last day for polling?

Yup.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 09, 2013, 08:15:44 AM
NYT calls SB a "wildcard", that he can't win outright but just wants influence.  I hope they're right.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/09/world/europe/berlusconi-remains-the-wild-card-in-italy-parliament-race.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes&_r=0


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 09, 2013, 08:26:12 AM

:(


When will there be a debate? Is there even going to be a debate?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 09, 2013, 03:16:39 PM

Last time I heard about it, the negotiations for a debate had collapsed because Berlusconi wanted the debate to be between coalition leaders (him, Bersani and Monti) while Bersani wanted to also include Grillo, Ingroia and Giannino. No idea why they each had this position, but maybe they were just looking for a pretext to not have a debate...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 09, 2013, 03:25:00 PM
That seems most likely to me. Has Italy done GE debates before, and if so, in which elections?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 09, 2013, 03:27:57 PM
That seems most likely to me. Has Italy done GE debates before, and if so, in which elections?

They definitely did in 2006: Berlusconi vs. Prodi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 09, 2013, 04:05:59 PM
Anyway, just "voted"! :D

By "voted", I mean, my parents put a cross on the symbol I indicated and then put my ballot in the envelope... which of course looks nothing like really voting. :(


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 09, 2013, 04:13:54 PM
Silvio appreciates your support, Antonio!



;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 09, 2013, 04:30:06 PM
BTW, the Europe constituency had only 9 lists running: PD, SEL, RC, Monti, PdL, M5S, FiD, some commie outfit nobody knows about, and a "local" Italians Abroad party. I would have liked more diversity, like in Italy at large. :(


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 09, 2013, 05:32:07 PM
What's your experience of the campaign on the ground?

I live in a little municipality (7,000 residents) north of Milan and it has been very lackluster.
They barely put out posters so far. The free spaces for parties to put out electoral posters have been totally empty until few days ago. On Thursday PD sticked their posters. And on Friday Rivoluzione Civile added their material. Nothing from other lists.

And we also have regional elections. No "war of preferences" so far between council candidates. In the past there was usually materials from candidates asking for a personal vote (at regional level there aren't blocked lists like for MPs).

Nothing by post either. I guess they don't have much money and they are saving for a final push.

But lots of spots on youtube for Maroni. The last one is priceless....apparently people in Lombardy wake up early in the morning because they have to work and produce for the whole country.



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on February 09, 2013, 06:37:43 PM
BTW, the Europe constituency had only 9 lists running: PD, SEL, RC, Monti, PdL, M5S, FiD, some commie outfit nobody knows about, and a "local" Italians Abroad party. I would have liked more diversity, like in Italy at large. :(

You mean, like one man, one party?

But lots of spots on youtube for Maroni. The last one is priceless....apparently people in Lombardy wake up early in the morning because they have to work and produce for the whole country.

The last time I used an Italian product it was from Emilia Romana (Parma). Oh, I forgot about that wonderful Montepulciano d' Abruzzo. I alos remember a product from Torino I once used to drive. But what the hell are they working on in Lombardy, except for banking and fashion shows?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 09, 2013, 07:19:26 PM
BTW, the Europe constituency had only 9 lists running: PD, SEL, RC, Monti, PdL, M5S, FiD, some commie outfit nobody knows about, and a "local" Italians Abroad party. I would have liked more diversity, like in Italy at large. :(

You mean, like one man, one party?

I just wanted to see the full slate of lists, yeah. All the choices from Fiamma Tricolore to some marxist-leninist outfits. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: ERvND on February 09, 2013, 08:20:10 PM
I hear that the industry is supporting Monti, big time. I guess they were rather pro-Berlusconi in 2006.

Will this make a difference?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 09, 2013, 09:21:09 PM
What's your experience of the campaign on the ground?

I live in a little municipality (7,000 residents) north of Milan and it has been very lackluster.
They barely put out posters so far. The free spaces for parties to put out electoral posters have been totally empty until few days ago. On Thursday PD sticked their posters. And on Friday Rivoluzione Civile added their material. Nothing from other lists.

And we also have regional elections. No "war of preferences" so far between council candidates. In the past there was usually materials from candidates asking for a personal vote (at regional level there aren't blocked lists like for MPs).

Nothing by post either. I guess they don't have much money and they are saving for a final push.

But lots of spots on youtube for Maroni. The last one is priceless....apparently people in Lombardy wake up early in the morning because they have to work and produce for the whole country.



The ground game in North/Central America consists of me, my friends and the Deputy's son/other confidants putting up signs in front of Italian clubs and Catholic Churches. :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 10, 2013, 12:56:18 PM
I'm going to Italy next weekend to campaign for Bersani in Lombardia and Lazio.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 10, 2013, 06:16:35 PM
Some Monti supporters say they want to support the PD guy for Lombaria regionals, instead to the "official" centrist candidate. Monti is VERY pissed off.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 10, 2013, 06:44:12 PM
Some Monti supporters say they want to support the PD guy for Lombaria regionals, instead to the "official" centrist candidate. Monti is VERY pissed off.

Sure. Reasonable people must be worried and don't want to run to risk of letting Maroni get in.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 10, 2013, 07:38:57 PM
Tactical voting.

ERVND: No, because SB is talking fairy tales instead of actual, ya know, policies. He'd screw up the economy even worse if by some nightmare he got back in.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 10, 2013, 07:45:42 PM
Some Monti supporters say they want to support the PD guy for Lombaria regionals, instead to the "official" centrist candidate. Monti is VERY pissed off.

Sure. Reasonable people must be worried and don't want to run to risk of letting Maroni get in.

Yeah, but Monti seemingly did not want "his" candidate (Albertini) to be sidelined, even though it's clear he can't win.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 10, 2013, 10:35:48 PM
Can one of the Italians explain what goes into get out the vote efforts in these elections? Italy almost always has astronomical turnout in national elections. It just seems like a given. It might sound silly but if 80-85% of people are coming out regardless, is there any really serious effort to push your side to the polls or is there more of an emphasis in having these policy debates to win over the undecideds in the run up to the election?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 10, 2013, 11:48:46 PM
Can one of the Italians explain what goes into get out the vote efforts in these elections? Italy almost always has astronomical turnout in national elections. It just seems like a given. It might sound silly but if 80-85% of people are coming out regardless, is there any really serious effort to push your side to the polls or is there more of an emphasis in having these policy debates to win over the undecideds in the run up to the election?

I have never heard about significant efforts by parties to turn out their voters, honestly. I know I don't live in Italy, but I highly doubt GOTV is a big deal there. Really, the US is the only Western country where there is such a focus in making sure people vote (which reflects even more poorly on your turnout levels).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: LastVoter on February 11, 2013, 05:17:36 AM
Can one of the Italians explain what goes into get out the vote efforts in these elections? Italy almost always has astronomical turnout in national elections. It just seems like a given. It might sound silly but if 80-85% of people are coming out regardless, is there any really serious effort to push your side to the polls or is there more of an emphasis in having these policy debates to win over the undecideds in the run up to the election?

I have never heard about significant efforts by parties to turn out their voters, honestly. I know I don't live in Italy, but I highly doubt GOTV is a big deal there. Really, the US is the only Western country where there is such a focus in making sure people vote (which reflects even more poorly on your turnout levels).
Atlasia :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 11, 2013, 06:18:55 AM
Can one of the Italians explain what goes into get out the vote efforts in these elections? Italy almost always has astronomical turnout in national elections. It just seems like a given. It might sound silly but if 80-85% of people are coming out regardless, is there any really serious effort to push your side to the polls or is there more of an emphasis in having these policy debates to win over the undecideds in the run up to the election?

I have never heard about significant efforts by parties to turn out their voters, honestly. I know I don't live in Italy, but I highly doubt GOTV is a big deal there. Really, the US is the only Western country where there is such a focus in making sure people vote (which reflects even more poorly on your turnout levels).

UK also have GOTV operations. In continental Europe we are much less focused on it.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 11, 2013, 06:21:01 AM

The last time I used an Italian product it was from Emilia Romana (Parma). Oh, I forgot about that wonderful Montepulciano d' Abruzzo. I alos remember a product from Torino I once used to drive. But what the hell are they working on in Lombardy, except for banking and fashion shows?

After a long thought, I come up with Panettoni!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 11, 2013, 06:51:28 AM
We interrupt this exciting election for a Papal election.

I saw Italy's Grande Fratello put out an image with the caption "The next Pope" and Silvio's face photoshopped over Benedict's. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: freek on February 11, 2013, 07:41:16 AM
We interrupt this exciting election for a Papal election.

I saw Italy's Grande Fratello put out an image with the caption "The next Pope" and Silvio's face photoshopped over Benedict's. :P
()


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on February 11, 2013, 08:44:02 AM
Can one of the Italians explain what goes into get out the vote efforts in these elections? Italy almost always has astronomical turnout in national elections. It just seems like a given. It might sound silly but if 80-85% of people are coming out regardless, is there any really serious effort to push your side to the polls or is there more of an emphasis in having these policy debates to win over the undecideds in the run up to the election?

I have never heard about significant efforts by parties to turn out their voters, honestly. I know I don't live in Italy, but I highly doubt GOTV is a big deal there. Really, the US is the only Western country where there is such a focus in making sure people vote (which reflects even more poorly on your turnout levels).

UK also have GOTV operations. In continental Europe we are much less focused on it.

The Social Democrats here in Sweden often have GOTV efforts in poor immigrant communities, but besides that it's basicly unheard off.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 11, 2013, 10:22:54 AM
There are no real GOTV efforts here as well.

Once in a while the parties send some goodies like pencils/lighters etc. with a party logo and an additional letter to young and first-time voters to encourage them to vote.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on February 11, 2013, 12:06:54 PM
Doesn't Italy have mandatory voting?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 11, 2013, 12:13:18 PM
Theoretically yes, but this is not enforced.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franzl on February 11, 2013, 12:18:48 PM
Anyway, just "voted"! :D

By "voted", I mean, my parents put a cross on the symbol I indicated and then put my ballot in the envelope... which of course looks nothing like really voting. :(

Is that really legal?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 11, 2013, 12:26:28 PM
Italy has compulsory voting? That's news to me.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Kitteh on February 11, 2013, 01:25:57 PM
Anyway, just "voted"! :D

By "voted", I mean, my parents put a cross on the symbol I indicated and then put my ballot in the envelope... which of course looks nothing like really voting. :(

Is that really legal?

I remember, in 2003, when I was 8 years old, my mom took me into the voting booth with her and had me push the button to "vote" against recalling Gray Davis. I'm sure that was illegal and I'm surprised they allowed it, but the fact that the polling place was the house of someone a block away from us who we knew well (and who was working as one of the poll monitors that day) might have had something to do with it.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 11, 2013, 01:35:33 PM
Italy has compulsory voting? That's news to me.

This source has the explanation:

Quote
Compulsory Voting in Western Europe: Italy

Immediately after the Second World War a new electoral system and
electoral law were introduced. Compulsory voting was introduced as
part of this electoral law and remained in the electoral law for almost
50 years.
Fascism had collapsed and a referendum was called to
choose whether Italy should be a monarchy or republic. The monarchists
had argued strongly in favour of the introduction of compulsory
voting and hoped to win the referendum by ensuring broad participation.
It was compulsory to vote at all elections. The sanctions that
applied were similar to those applied in Belgium today, that is, a voter
who had abstained for several consecutive elections would be temporarily
suspended from voting. In addition, the sanctions involved a
non-voter being unable to obtain employment as a civil servant or run
for any public office. Voter turnout has been quite high throughout the
years in Italy and sanctions have seldom been imposed on the small
proportion of voters who abstained from voting, despite the provision
for sanctions in the law.
Compulsory voting has been a controversial
issue for many years. Those who have argued against it have been
mainly the liberal parties. Finally, in the early 1990s, with the country
having had more than 55 governments in less than 50 years, all political
forces agreed on the need for major reforms in the electoral law.
A new electoral law was introduced in 1993 after being accepted by
a national referendum. At present the law says that voting is a right
and a duty, without using the word 'compulsory'.


http://www.idea.int/publications/voter_turnout_weurope/upload/chapter%203.pdf


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 11, 2013, 02:27:26 PM
Anyway, just "voted"! :D

By "voted", I mean, my parents put a cross on the symbol I indicated and then put my ballot in the envelope... which of course looks nothing like really voting. :(

Is that really legal?

Considering this is vote by mail and nobody will know who put the ballot in the envelope... kinda. How would you prevent that from happening?


Anyway, Italy's high turnout certainly has something to do with the fact you have two days of vote instead of only one like in most European countries. Sure, most US States have like two weeks and turnout is still abysmal... :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 11, 2013, 02:31:19 PM
How would you prevent that from happening?

Theoretically, your parents could send you your absentee ballot from Paris to San Francisco and you fill it out and return it to Italy by post ... :P

Otherwise:

VOTE FRAUD ! (Your parents might have voted for Silvio, and you don't even know it ... ;))


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 11, 2013, 02:33:31 PM
How would you prevent that from happening?

Theoretically, your parents could send you your absentee ballot from Paris to San Francisco and you fill it out and return it to Italy by post ... :P

Otherwise:

VOTE FRAUD ! (Your parents might have voted for Silvio, and you don't even know it ... ;))

I know they didn't: I watched the whole process through Skype. Voting is serious business. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 11, 2013, 02:35:19 PM
Question for Antonio:

Don't you have to personally sign the absentee ballot before hitting it into the letterbox ?

That's at least what I had to do ahead of the draft referendum, when I voted absentee.

So, if your parents "voted" for you, did they fake your signature ? Or is there none required ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 11, 2013, 02:40:05 PM
Question for Antonio:

Don't you have to personally sign the absentee ballot before hitting it into the letterbox ?

That's at least what I had to do ahead of the draft referendum, when I voted absentee.

So, if your parents "voted" for you, did they fake your signature ? Or is there none required ?

No, there's no signature required. The Italian consulate sends ballot's at the proper address, it's filled out and posted.

Where do you sign in Austria? And how do you avoid the problem of election officials being able to see who you voted for?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 11, 2013, 02:45:22 PM
Question for Antonio:

Don't you have to personally sign the absentee ballot before hitting it into the letterbox ?

That's at least what I had to do ahead of the draft referendum, when I voted absentee.

So, if your parents "voted" for you, did they fake your signature ? Or is there none required ?

No, there's no signature required. The Italian consulate sends ballot's at the proper address, it's filled out and posted.

Where do you sign in Austria? And how do you avoid the problem of election officials being able to see who you voted for?

You sign the absentee ballot ENCLOSURE only, to guarantee that you yourself have filled out the ballot (of course nobody can check that ... :P). The actual ballot is in a separate enclosure inside that first enclosure, which is then taken out at the district election commission the day after the election and all "real" anonymous ballot enclosures are then opened by the 10 or so members of the county election commission and counted. That guarantees the secrecy, because there are 2 enclosures and the ballot.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 11, 2013, 04:22:10 PM
Question for Antonio:

Don't you have to personally sign the absentee ballot before hitting it into the letterbox ?

That's at least what I had to do ahead of the draft referendum, when I voted absentee.

So, if your parents "voted" for you, did they fake your signature ? Or is there none required ?

No, there's no signature required. The Italian consulate sends ballot's at the proper address, it's filled out and posted.

Where do you sign in Austria? And how do you avoid the problem of election officials being able to see who you voted for?

You sign the absentee ballot ENCLOSURE only, to guarantee that you yourself have filled out the ballot (of course nobody can check that ... :P). The actual ballot is in a separate enclosure inside that first enclosure, which is then taken out at the district election commission the day after the election and all "real" anonymous ballot enclosures are then opened by the 10 or so members of the county election commission and counted. That guarantees the secrecy, because there are 2 enclosures and the ballot.

Sorry, I'm an idiot. :P We actually do have two enclosures as well in Italy (since on the external one there is the voter's name, obviously). No signature though.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Obamanation on February 11, 2013, 08:28:20 PM
I just sent my electoral card in!

PD with La Marca and Piana (preference) for North/Central America deputies. Too young for Senate.

:)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 11, 2013, 10:01:28 PM
I just sent my electoral card in!

PD with La Marca and Piana (preference) for North/Central America deputies. Too young for Senate.

:)

Bucchino is retiring, right? Is it a real free for all or is there a favorite on the PD site.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Kitteh on February 12, 2013, 12:15:47 AM

Wait, there's a separate voting age for senate?

???


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 12, 2013, 12:26:49 AM

Yeah, you must be over 25 I think.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 12, 2013, 12:27:17 AM

Yes, 25, apparently.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Obamanation on February 12, 2013, 01:38:03 AM
I just sent my electoral card in!

PD with La Marca and Piana (preference) for North/Central America deputies. Too young for Senate.

:)

Bucchino is retiring, right? Is it a real free for all or is there a favorite on the PD site.

Not entirely sure but, yes Bucchino isn't on the candidates list.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 12, 2013, 02:38:52 AM
Silvio Berlusconi asked a young female solar power technician yesterday how often she "comes":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVFhRmHmp8c

This is pretty funny actually, because the young woman then said that it depends and she often "comes" 3, 4, 5 times ... ;)

Quote
Berlusconi asked a solar power technician during a company visit on Sunday if she made house calls, if she "comes to homes" and how many times she is willing "to come", remarks he claimed had been taken out of context.

http://www.adnkronos.com/IGN/Aki/English/Politics/Italy-Berlusconi-accused-of-treating-women-like-sex-dolls_314171276816.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 12, 2013, 02:50:54 AM
LOL at this epic smile on Silvio's face:

()


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on February 12, 2013, 07:42:01 AM
Sure, most US States have like two weeks and turnout is still abysmal... :P

Yes but in the US you might also have to stand in line for a few hours to cast you ballot. 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Beet on February 12, 2013, 10:41:56 AM
Berlusconi is only 5'5? He's a hero to us short guys! :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on February 12, 2013, 06:57:04 PM
I don't understand how Berlusconi, after all the scandals he's been through, can really be making such a remarkable comeback. Can somebody inform me on what exactly this guy's appeal is?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 12, 2013, 07:03:15 PM
I don't understand how Berlusconi, after all the scandals he's been through, can really be making such a remarkable comeback. Can somebody inform me on what exactly this guys appeal is?

I didn't see that coming either, to be honest. I guess a significant factor behind it is the thorough stupidity, not only of the Italian electorate, but also of Berlusconi's opponents, especially Bersani with his absurd shenanigans with Monti. That doesn't exactly explain it, still.

Keep also in mind that Berlusconi's current level of polling (18-20% for PdL, 4-5% for Lega, around 5% for minor partners) is not exactly impressive. It's just that the threshold for victory is significantly lowered due to the unusually large number of competitive political force.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 12, 2013, 07:05:11 PM
Anyway, a new scandal pops up today. The CEO of Finmeccanica, Italy's greatest industrial company, is in jail on bribery charges. This time it could hurt Monti, apparently, because the government had oversight on Finmeccanica and could possibly have acted earlier.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 12, 2013, 09:02:53 PM
I don't understand how Berlusconi, after all the scandals he's been through, can really be making such a remarkable comeback. Can somebody inform me on what exactly this guy's appeal is?

We were all so very foolish to ever completely write the guy off. This is Italy. Love him or hate, the guy means so much to the country, for better or worse.

And, yeah, as I've said before, never underestimate the Italian Left's ability to throw it all away.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on February 13, 2013, 02:28:16 AM
What are the general news (aside from corruption scandals) on economic development in the individual regions? And how could this impact on voting for the House and the Senate?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on February 13, 2013, 04:19:32 AM
"Love him or hate him" is exactly the philosophy I don't agree with. I have never hated nor loved him, he's a politician like others, who I won't vote. Too much importance has been given to any his littel gestures or word.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 13, 2013, 08:35:28 AM
"Love him or hate him" is exactly the philosophy I don't agree with. I have never hated nor loved him, he's a politician like others, who I won't vote. Too much importance has been given to any his littel gestures or word.

I wasn't saying those were the only choices. It's a phrase. I wanted to incorporate the extremes to get across the point that everyone can agree on his serious impact on the country. It's something you admit in that post. Rightly or wrongly or somewhere in between ;), that's the fact of the matter.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 13, 2013, 09:52:25 AM
I just realized: the Milan Derby is on the first day of voting and Balotelli will be playing against his old club. This will come after Inter got fined for racist chants against Mario (even though he wasn't there) during their most recent match. Couldn't write a more perfect script for Silvio unless, of course, Milan loses. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 13, 2013, 01:35:09 PM
What are the general news (aside from corruption scandals) on economic development in the individual regions? And how could this impact on voting for the House and the Senate?

Formigoni has also been indicted in Lombardia. Apart from that I can't say much, except that the economy sucks everywhere.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: DL on February 13, 2013, 11:10:41 PM
I'm not sure what "comeback" anyone sees for Berlusconi. The last polls behind the embargo consistently showed his coalition of parties 5 or 6 points behind the left and the 20% or so that would vote PdL is essentiually the bedrock 20% of Italians who will always vote for the rightwing option come hell or high water.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 13, 2013, 11:19:28 PM
I'm not sure what "comeback" anyone sees for Berlusconi. The last polls behind the embargo consistently showed his coalition of parties 5 or 6 points behind the left and the 20% or so that would vote PdL is essentiually the bedrock 20% of Italians who will always vote for the rightwing option come hell or high water.

You're right, the Right coalition hasn't gained that much ground in the past few months. It's more the left coalition that has been dwindling, from about 40% to now the low 30s.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on February 13, 2013, 11:52:58 PM
I'm not sure what "comeback" anyone sees for Berlusconi. The last polls behind the embargo consistently showed his coalition of parties 5 or 6 points behind the left and the 20% or so that would vote PdL is essentiually the bedrock 20% of Italians who will always vote for the rightwing option come hell or high water.

Yeah that's a good point. though I don't see how Berlusconi is still the conservative leader. they should have taken that from him right around the time of the fraud conviction.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 14, 2013, 02:05:24 AM
The Champions League game between AC Milan and Barcelona on Feb. 20 should be interesting.

Do you think a win by Milan will lead to a Right win in Lombardy, or will a win by Milan have nothing to do with a potential Right wing a few days later ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on February 14, 2013, 05:16:12 AM
People are over-analysing the importance of sports on election results. I'm not sure wich is more silly, people thinking Scotland will vote for indipendance because they host a non-important sport-event the same year, or people thinking a Milan win will make people vote for Silvio.

Is there any election in the past 50 years in a Western Democracy that's is believed to have been determained by a single sports event?

Swing-voters might be idiots, but they're not that dumb.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: DL on February 14, 2013, 07:54:42 AM
People are over-analysing the importance of sports on election results. I'm not sure wich is more silly, people thinking Scotland will vote for indipendance because they host a non-important sport-event the same year, or people thinking a Milan win will make people vote for Silvio.

Is there any election in the past 50 years in a Western Democracy that's is believed to have been determained by a single sports event?

Swing-voters might be idiots, but they're not that dumb.

Actually, isn't there some speculation that one of the reasons the Labour Party suffered a stunning unexpected loss in the 1970 UK election was that people were in a foul mood after England lost the World Cup?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 14, 2013, 08:40:44 AM
The Champions League game between AC Milan and Barcelona on Feb. 20 should be interesting.

Do you think a win by Milan will lead to a Right win in Lombardy, or will a win by Milan have nothing to do with a potential Right wing a few days later ?

Yeah, that's big, too (ought to be an incredible few days of Calcio), but the derby is going to be huge and it absolutely could have political implications. A derby means other people in the region will be livid but those types have a burning hatred for Berlusconi already and were always going to turn out against him. Centrist or uneasy right leaning AC Milan fans might finally be pushed into Silvio's camp.

As for the post dismissing the comeback, the center-right isn't at "20% or so." They're at about 30% now.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 14, 2013, 07:31:04 PM
Yeah, I don't think a Milan victory helps SB win nationally. Maybe boost him provincially a bit but that's it.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Kitteh on February 14, 2013, 09:12:01 PM
People are over-analysing the importance of sports on election results. I'm not sure wich is more silly, people thinking Scotland will vote for indipendance because they host a non-important sport-event the same year, or people thinking a Milan win will make people vote for Silvio.

Is there any election in the past 50 years in a Western Democracy that's is believed to have been determained by a single sports event?

Swing-voters might be idiots, but they're not that dumb.

Rugby had a very clear and definite impact on the New Zealand 2011 election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Vosem on February 14, 2013, 09:41:18 PM
People are over-analysing the importance of sports on election results. I'm not sure wich is more silly, people thinking Scotland will vote for indipendance because they host a non-important sport-event the same year, or people thinking a Milan win will make people vote for Silvio.

Is there any election in the past 50 years in a Western Democracy that's is believed to have been determained by a single sports event?

In the 1970 UK general election, there was a last-minute swing from Labor to the Conservatives, who ended up winning; it's thought that this is because the election took place shortly after England lost a significant match to West Germany during the 1970 World Cup (furthermore, it's thought England only lost because goalkeeper Gordon Banks was forced not to play due to a stomach illness).

Sometimes history rests on the seemingly insignificant.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 14, 2013, 10:10:43 PM
For those who are interested in serious issues, today was a new scandal-fest. Tons of arrests have been made in I think four unrelated affair. The TV anchor said there hadn't been so many arrests since the Mani Pulite days.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 14, 2013, 10:14:41 PM
What sort of scandals? Nothing MP level presumably.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 14, 2013, 10:22:30 PM
What sort of scandals? Nothing MP level presumably.

All sorts... There is the Formigoni thing, which of course annoys PdL (and Lega to a smaller extent), MPS which for some reason is being tied to PD, Finmeccanica which might hurt Monti and also possibly Lega, and many others. I'm only following these things distractly, because I'm a bit fed up with all these corruption scandals. Methinks abstention (and maybe M5S) will be the only one benefitting from all this.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 15, 2013, 09:43:27 AM
So Monti is coming in fourth. Jeeze.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 15, 2013, 10:16:53 AM

A guess or something more concrete? ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 15, 2013, 10:38:57 AM

No, that's my prediction now. These scandals plus the M5S surge before the end of polling makes it seem inevitable.

By the way, does anyone know if it's just the publication of polling that's banned? I'd imagine the parties would be mighty pissed if they couldn't at least do private polling within two weeks of an election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on February 15, 2013, 10:46:16 AM
What sort of scandals? Nothing MP level presumably.

All sorts... There is the Formigoni thing, which of course annoys PdL (and Lega to a smaller extent), MPS which for some reason is being tied to PD, Finmeccanica which might hurt Monti and also possibly Lega, and many others. I'm only following these things distractly, because I'm a bit fed up with all these corruption scandals. Methinks abstention (and maybe M5S) will be the only one benefitting from all this.

What about this anti-corruption party (forgot about the name) that was always polling around 2-4%? Shouldn't the scandals help them making the threshold? And, if yes, could that have consequences for the Senate'


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on February 15, 2013, 11:12:17 AM
Actually, isn't there some speculation that one of the reasons the Labour Party suffered a stunning unexpected loss in the 1970 UK election was that people were in a foul mood after England lost the World Cup?

In the 1970 UK general election, there was a last-minute swing from Labor to the Conservatives, who ended up winning; it's thought that this is because the election took place shortly after England lost a significant match to West Germany during the 1970 World Cup (furthermore, it's thought England only lost because goalkeeper Gordon Banks was forced not to play due to a stomach illness).

Sometimes history rests on the seemingly insignificant.

Speculation perhaps, but it's the first I've heard of it and nowhere near as decisively regarded a factor as Vosem's post makes out (can't recall it even being mentioned in the BBC coverage of the 1970's GE that was repeated recently). I'd think, far more meaningful, were the dire set of balance of payment figures that came out during the campaign, something the country had had been assured devaluation would solve. Oh and that's to say nothing of how accurate polling even was back then. Most polls were conducted by Gallup, Harris and NOC and beyond Harris (who haven't polled since Aug 2010) the others don't poll in the UK any longer, with Gallup having a shoddy reputation. Polling's came on a long way since then, with polls in the 1990's considered suspect (weighted incorrectly etc), let alone 1970.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 15, 2013, 12:23:37 PM
The 1970 thing is nonsense. Everyone believes it, but it's nonsense. The 1966-1970 Labour government was (somewhat incredible to believe now given its many and manifest achievements) one of the most unpopular governments of the 20th century. A several points during that parliament, senior Party figures (and not just the usual panickers) were genuinely concerned at the prospect of a repeat of the 1931 election. Then in 1970 there was a 'remarkable' (to use the word chosen by one member of the cabinet in his memoirs) recovery in the government's polling numbers. What almost certainly happened was that the polling firms (and this was an industry still in its infancy in Britain in many respects) overestimated the scale of the Labour recovery; probably Labour was never genuinely ahead during the campaign.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 15, 2013, 12:28:20 PM
The Champions League game between AC Milan and Barcelona on Feb. 20 should be interesting.

Do you think a win by Milan will lead to a Right win in Lombardy, or will a win by Milan have nothing to do with a potential Right wing a few days later ?

Oh my...please stop overestimating football's impact on elections.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 15, 2013, 12:30:05 PM
Anyway,Finmeccanica's president, who was arrested this week,claimed last year that he "owes literally everything to Maroni",who is the Lega North secretary...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 15, 2013, 01:26:25 PM
The Champions League game between AC Milan and Barcelona on Feb. 20 should be interesting.

Do you think a win by Milan will lead to a Right win in Lombardy, or will a win by Milan have nothing to do with a potential Right wing a few days later ?

Oh my...please stop overestimating football's impact on elections.

Spoken like a truly jealous Inter fan.


:P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 15, 2013, 02:12:58 PM
What sort of scandals? Nothing MP level presumably.

All sorts... There is the Formigoni thing, which of course annoys PdL (and Lega to a smaller extent), MPS which for some reason is being tied to PD, Finmeccanica which might hurt Monti and also possibly Lega, and many others. I'm only following these things distractly, because I'm a bit fed up with all these corruption scandals. Methinks abstention (and maybe M5S) will be the only one benefitting from all this.

What about this anti-corruption party (forgot about the name) that was always polling around 2-4%? Shouldn't the scandals help them making the threshold? And, if yes, could that have consequences for the Senate'

L'Italia Dei Valori is part of Ingroia's RC list.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 15, 2013, 03:25:11 PM
Napolitano met with Obama in the Oval Office today. Now I'm probably misreading but it looks Obama asked him about the election. Isn't that really inappropriate?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on February 15, 2013, 05:06:30 PM
Napolitano met with Obama in the Oval Office today. Now I'm probably misreading but it looks Obama asked him about the election. Isn't that really inappropriate?

Why should it be inappropriate? I thinkl it is a legitimate interest to find out how a major partner country may in future be governed, and what that could mean for bilateral and multilateral relations. I am sure most European governments are asking similar questions to their Italian partners behind closed doors.

It would only be inappropriate if Obama (or any other country leader) had made a statement on how he wished the Italians to vote.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 15, 2013, 05:13:38 PM
I was implying that Obama's questions about the election were underhanded suggestions on how to vote and campaigning from the Oval Office for a certain political party/coalition is unstatesman-like. What did you think I thought his comments were about? "Hey, are your voting booths set up already?" :P

That said, it seems like I misunderstood his statement: Obama said after he was voted in (again), his daughters asked if they could go back to Italy. I just saw a headline about Obama commenting on "the vote" and thought it was about Italy's election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 15, 2013, 05:18:18 PM
Well, Axelrod is working for Monti.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 15, 2013, 05:36:15 PM

...for real? I didn't see that anywhere.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 15, 2013, 05:38:41 PM
Was reported in Politico a while back- he was even slammed in the Italian media. Not that it affects the election outcome.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 15, 2013, 06:27:23 PM
Was reported in Politico a while back- he was even slammed in the Italian media. Not that it affects the election outcome.

Can't believe I missed that especially since I read Politico (and browse the Italian daily papers) every day. Well, Axelrod is going to go from an epic high to a pretty pitiful low in a short period of time.

By the way, Balotelli scored again today in Milan's win.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 15, 2013, 07:57:29 PM
Great... Another useless retarded "polemic"...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 16, 2013, 08:23:01 AM
Great... Another useless retarded "polemic"...
On what?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 16, 2013, 02:29:06 PM

The Napolitano-Obama meeting.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 16, 2013, 02:38:56 PM
Great... Another useless retarded "polemic"...

The real scandal is than the Right is unwilling to find a new leader.
I can't believe they don't have better than a corrupt and amoral Berlusconi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 16, 2013, 02:43:07 PM
Ah lol, that's just the center-right whining as usual.
99% of italians don't even know that meeting happened.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 16, 2013, 04:23:56 PM
Ah lol, that's just the center-right whining as usual.
99% of italians don't even know that meeting happened.

The media are talking about it though... The right's whining is usually fairly effective in getting attention.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 16, 2013, 04:25:01 PM

If this is referring to me, I said I misunderstood what Obama said to Napolitano.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 16, 2013, 04:27:44 PM

If this is referring to me, I said I misunderstood what Obama said to Napolitano.

No, I was referring to the way people are talking about it in Italy...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 16, 2013, 11:00:35 PM
What's their beef about Obama meeting with Napolitano?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 17, 2013, 04:56:08 AM
Ah lol, that's just the center-right whining as usual.
99% of italians don't even know that meeting happened.

The media are talking about it though... The right's whining is usually fairly effective in getting attention.


Unluckily for PdL it happened during San Remo week.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: ERvND on February 17, 2013, 03:47:15 PM
In wonder where the race is standing right now.

With the media constantly touting a Berlusconi comeback, you could get the impression the centre-right coalition is at a 50-50 chance to win. Traders on Intrade, in contrast, give Bersani a 90% chance of victory. Bookmakers have Bersani at around 1,2 (1/5), equaling a winning probability of ca. 83%. On Betfair, Berlusconi is at 21 (20), i.e. a chance of under 5%.

The last polls also indicated a narrowing, but stable lead for the centre-left coalition. Berlusconi supporters, of course, could hope that the polls were systematically wrong. Fot example, the Monti vote could collapse in their direction on election day.   


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 17, 2013, 05:14:51 PM
Big left-wing rally in Lombardia today, "starring" Prodi too.

Also, Berlusconi says he plans to get drunk if Fini and Casini don't get into Parliament. Knowing him, he's probably serious. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 17, 2013, 05:31:52 PM
Polls which are leaking through the internet show a center-left lead between 5 and 8%...no news about the Senate though.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 17, 2013, 05:33:27 PM
Polls which are leaking through the internet show a center-left lead between 5 and 8%...no news about the Senate though.

Are these reliable polls made by the usual pollsters or amateur/internet polls?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 17, 2013, 09:04:25 PM
They had to bring Prodi in for a rally? He fires them up? :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 18, 2013, 02:53:47 AM
Polls which are leaking through the internet show a center-left lead between 5 and 8%...no news about the Senate though.

Are these reliable polls made by the usual pollsters or amateur/internet polls?
Should be reliable,but obviously they can't say which pollster made it,since it's illegal to publish polls now.

BTW,Prodi has been the best Italian PM of the last...20?30? years.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 18, 2013, 10:06:40 AM
Considering how long Berlusconi served and the other options, you really don't have anyone else to label as the best so that really isn't saying much. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 18, 2013, 11:06:21 AM
The election gets front page coverage...in Philadelphia (thanks to hometown favorite Berardi). Ignore the other headline (in the top right). :P


()


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 18, 2013, 11:30:26 AM
Obviously Berlusconi is the best leader Italy has had in the post war era

/troll


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Gary J on February 18, 2013, 12:22:23 PM
How about Alcide De Gasperi for the best post war Italian Prime Minister prize? Founder of the Christian Democratic Party and Prime Minister from 1945 until 1953.

I would suggest that the challenges De Gasperi faced were greater than those of his successors. He seems to have been remarkably successful compared to those who came before and after him.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 18, 2013, 12:46:29 PM
Just to be clear, the original comment wasn't about the greatest post war PM; he was saying in more recent times. 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 18, 2013, 03:46:46 PM
Yeah, I think it's pretty clear that all of Italy's best postwar PMs were in the 1st Republic. And even then, only a few of those really qualifies as decent when you account for things like corruption etc.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: DL on February 18, 2013, 03:49:06 PM
Considering how long Berlusconi served and the other options, you really don't have anyone else to label as the best so that really isn't saying much. :P

Oh come on - surely the absolute GREATEST Italian PM of all time has to be the dynamic, charismatic Giulio Andreotti!! He even got charged with murder and got off on a technicality and was apparently very actively involved in the Mafia!

I think it almost goes without saying that Italy really has the most low quality political leaders of any western democracy. 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 18, 2013, 03:53:52 PM
Correction: he got off from all kinds of charges on what amounted to some kind of hilarious parade of technicalities...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: DL on February 18, 2013, 04:37:11 PM
Some would say that Italy has been in decline since the end of the Florentine Renaissance. Hard to imagine that the country that gave the world everyone from Machiavelli to Gramsci is now symbolized by political leaders like Andreotti the murderer and Berlusconi the child rapist.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 18, 2013, 04:51:51 PM
According to EMG leaks, undecideds are still over 15%.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 18, 2013, 05:18:50 PM
According to EMG leaks, undecideds are still over 15%.

how many "won't vote"?
If the "won't vote" is not high, I would guess that some of those claiming to be undecides 6 days before polling day won't turn out.
In 2008 turnout was 80%. I think it will drop this time


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 18, 2013, 05:37:40 PM
From what I remember, abstention was polling around 25%...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 18, 2013, 05:58:39 PM
From what I remember, abstention was polling around 25%...

they sound about right. So the 15% of don't know should decide at one point.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 18, 2013, 06:00:38 PM
Oscar Giannino,the leader of Fare-Fermare Il Declino (neo-liberal party polling at 2%) apparently had in his CV a Master from the University of Chicago...which he never actually received.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 18, 2013, 06:17:16 PM
Oscar Giannino,the leader of Fare-Fermare Il Declino (neo-liberal party polling at 2%) apparently had in his CV a Master from the University of Chicago...which he never actually received.

Not being from the Chicago School of Economics is a big plus in my opinion. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 19, 2013, 02:42:24 AM
Oscar Giannino,the leader of Fare-Fermare Il Declino (neo-liberal party polling at 2%) apparently had in his CV a Master from the University of Chicago...which he never actually received.

Not being from the Chicago School of Economics is a big plus in my opinion. :P
Supporting their ideas and claiming to have gotten a master there when it's not true,is not that big a plus :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on February 19, 2013, 04:16:53 AM
Some would say that Italy has been in decline since the end of the Florentine Renaissance. Hard to imagine that the country that gave the world everyone from Machiavelli to Gramsci is now symbolized by political leaders like Andreotti the murderer and Berlusconi the child rapist.

Andreotti the murderer and Berlusconi the child rapist?  Are you smoking some pot?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 19, 2013, 05:40:45 AM
Some would say that Italy has been in decline since the end of the Florentine Renaissance. Hard to imagine that the country that gave the world everyone from Machiavelli to Gramsci is now symbolized by political leaders like Andreotti the murderer and Berlusconi the child rapist.

Andreotti the murderer and Berlusconi the child rapist?  Are you smoking some pot?


Well, Andreotti was involved in some murder mafia and some of the bunga-bugna guests were allegedly minors.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on February 19, 2013, 06:47:55 AM
Some would say that Italy has been in decline since the end of the Florentine Renaissance. Hard to imagine that the country that gave the world everyone from Machiavelli to Gramsci is now symbolized by political leaders like Andreotti the murderer and Berlusconi the child rapist.

Andreotti the murderer and Berlusconi the child rapist?  Are you smoking some pot?


Well, Andreotti was involved in some murder mafia and some of the bunga-bugna guests were allegedly minors.

Nobody was blamed of rape and Andreotti was guilty of contacts with mafia in '70s but cleared of all accusations about mafia murder (Percorelli's homicide)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 19, 2013, 07:21:01 AM
Some would say that Italy has been in decline since the end of the Florentine Renaissance. Hard to imagine that the country that gave the world everyone from Machiavelli to Gramsci is now symbolized by political leaders like Andreotti the murderer and Berlusconi the child rapist.

Andreotti the murderer and Berlusconi the child rapist?  Are you smoking some pot?


Well, Andreotti was involved in some murder mafia and some of the bunga-bugna guests were allegedly minors.

Nobody was blamed of rape and Andreotti was guilty of contacts with mafia in '70s but cleared of all accusations about mafia murder (Percorelli's homicide)

True, but do you really want to argue they have good morals or are appropriate role models?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 19, 2013, 08:17:10 AM
I suppose an argument exists that convicting someone for having Pecorelli bumped off wouldn't be in the public interest anyway.

Not that I would agree, hasten to add, but his story does work as a cautionary tale...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 19, 2013, 08:44:25 AM
The video rental store up the street from me is going out of business so I figured I'd stop by to buy Il Divo. Unfortunately, they didn't have it anymore. I then went a half hour out of my way to another location that did have it because of all of this Andreotti talk around here. :)

Anyway, 15% undecided? Oh, man...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on February 19, 2013, 09:00:06 AM
So, corruption is becoming a key issue for the election and the vote. Is this typical for Italian elections over the last decade or so ("let's throw some mud at the opponent, but continue with 'business as usual' after the election")? Or does the debate have a new quality, in the sense that some contenders are bringing up approaches and strategies to effectively tackle the problem?

How influential will the corruption issue be on the overall vote, in relation to other issues like, e.g., taxes, unemployment, social security, or refugees / immigration?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 19, 2013, 09:14:19 AM
The video rental store up the street from me is going out of business so I figured I'd stop by to buy Il Divo. Unfortunately, they didn't have it anymore. I then went a half hour out of my way to another location that did have it because of all of this Andreotti talk around here. :)

Anyway, 15% undecided? Oh, man...

It's a great film, so that's entirely understandable.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 19, 2013, 10:26:17 AM
The video rental store up the street from me is going out of business so I figured I'd stop by to buy Il Divo. Unfortunately, they didn't have it anymore. I then went a half hour out of my way to another location that did have it because of all of this Andreotti talk around here. :)

Anyway, 15% undecided? Oh, man...

It's a great film, so that's entirely understandable.

My favorite. :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 19, 2013, 10:50:02 AM
Decent resource for foreigners - http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/italy-s-bersani-may-need-post-vote-deal-with-monti-scenarios.html (http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/italy-s-bersani-may-need-post-vote-deal-with-monti-scenarios.html)


Polls are open from 8 AM to 10 PM on February 24th and from 7 AM to 3 PM on February 25th. The first exit polls will be published as the polls close which will be at 9 AM Eastern.

As the article notes, the exit polls were terribly inaccurate (underestimating the center-right) as the polls closed in 2006 and 2008.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 19, 2013, 12:49:08 PM
Have you received Silvio's letter about IMU?

I didn't yet but some people I know got it in the letter box this morning.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 19, 2013, 01:16:13 PM
Did who get it? I live in the U.S. and I'm not a dual citizen so I wouldn't.  :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: DL on February 19, 2013, 01:57:31 PM
Decent resource for foreigners - http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/italy-s-bersani-may-need-post-vote-deal-with-monti-scenarios.html (http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/italy-s-bersani-may-need-post-vote-deal-with-monti-scenarios.html)


As the article notes, the exit polls were terribly inaccurate (underestimating the center-right) as the polls closed in 2006 and 2008.

Of course just when you think exit polls consistently over or under-estimate one side or the other - the opposite happens!. Republicans used to console themselves that polls in the US would always underestimate GOP support - but lately that hasn't been happening in fact its been the opposite. Companies that do exit polls study what went right or wrong in past elections and they make corrections. You can be sure that the pollsters in Italy will do all kinds of weightings and formulas to avoid what happened in 2006 and 2008 - but what may happen is that they will overcompensate in their estimates and they could end up being wrong in the opposite direction!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 19, 2013, 02:03:17 PM
Decent resource for foreigners - http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/italy-s-bersani-may-need-post-vote-deal-with-monti-scenarios.html (http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/italy-s-bersani-may-need-post-vote-deal-with-monti-scenarios.html)


Polls are open from 8 AM to 10 PM on February 24th and from 7 AM to 3 PM on February 25th. The first exit polls will be published as the polls close which will be at 9 AM Eastern.

Ugh, that means it will be 6 AM for me. A Monday. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 19, 2013, 02:42:51 PM
Take the necessary measures, Antonio. I am. :)

DL, please don't compare pointing out Italian exit poll errors to Republicans getting excited over the "bias" of certain pollsters/exit poll errors here. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 19, 2013, 03:57:32 PM
Take the necessary measures, Antonio. I am. :)

This is probably a very stupid decision considering how much sleep I already lack, but yeah, Italian elections deserve such sacrifice. ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 19, 2013, 04:06:59 PM
As someone who's never followed an Italian election closely before (followed the past 2 on and off), how long does the count take?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 19, 2013, 04:10:51 PM
As someone who's never followed an Italian election closely before (followed the past 2 on and off), how long does the count take?

It's pretty quick, as far as I remember.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 19, 2013, 04:27:52 PM
Lega has gotten into some (predictable) controversy: a new poster shows two women walking down a street with a man hiding behind a wall, waiting to attack them. The controversy: the man is "black." In all honesty, he doesn't really look black to me (which face is partly concealed by his hoodie) but we know what Lega was getting at. 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 19, 2013, 05:29:48 PM
As someone who's never followed an Italian election closely before (followed the past 2 on and off), how long does the count take?

It's pretty quick, as far as I remember.

I guess results will start to come in by 5pm with many of them reported back by 7pm. If it's close, it will drag on until early night.
IIRC central red belt is usually the first to report back. Then Northern regions start to come in. South is the slowest. There're always the odds polling places from Naples or Sicily being added the following day....


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 19, 2013, 05:33:14 PM
Ah, I see the usual dig at Naples and Sicily has been satisfied for today.

:P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 20, 2013, 12:04:47 PM
Oh, no. Two of Fratelli d'Italia's candidates did a satire video about gay marriage. One of the candidates held up a sign: "Non votare con il culo" - "Don't vote with the ass."

Vendola is obviously pissed and making it an issue. Meloni and Crosetto have apologized.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 20, 2013, 12:06:56 PM
The latest "horse" polls indicate a left lead of between 5 and 8.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 20, 2013, 12:28:01 PM
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE91J0UE20130220?irpc=932 (http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE91J0UE20130220?irpc=932)

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/02/20/will-berlusconi-win-over-italians-with-champions-league-glory/ (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/02/20/will-berlusconi-win-over-italians-with-champions-league-glory/)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 20, 2013, 01:16:46 PM
Oh, no. Two of Fratelli d'Italia's candidates did a satire video about gay marriage. One of the candidates held up a sign: "Non votare con il culo" - "Don't vote with the ass."

Vendola is obviously pissed and making it an issue. Meloni and Crosetto have apologized.

Do you think the 1-2% people who'll vote for them give a damn about that? :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 20, 2013, 01:52:51 PM
So maybe it will boost turnout? :P

By the way, I noticed a lot of articles online today about the potential market crash if Silvio somehow wins. I guess all of these outlets want to get in their not-so-subtle campaigning before the weekend. :P And what are the German ministers thinking when they comment on Silvio possibly winning? They're playing right into his game...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 20, 2013, 04:45:06 PM
...

Milan beat Barcelona in an upset today.

...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on February 20, 2013, 05:19:31 PM
With help from Berlin (Kevin Prince Boateng) :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on February 20, 2013, 05:28:51 PM
With help from Berlin (Kevin Prince Boateng) :)

So maybe this will help Monti. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 20, 2013, 07:22:14 PM
...

Milan beat Barcelona in an upset today.

...

It's over. Berlusconi to win comfortably.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 21, 2013, 06:46:59 AM
The latest "horse" poll shows the Left lead is down to 1.5%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franzl on February 21, 2013, 07:08:38 AM
Did Silvio bribe Barcelona?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 21, 2013, 07:14:04 AM
The latest "horse" poll shows the Left lead is down to 1.5%

Some of these polls are just beyond ridicolous.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 21, 2013, 08:04:18 AM
The latest "horse" poll shows the Left lead is down to 1.5%

Some of these polls are just beyond ridicolous.

Let me guess which ones...

;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: rosin on February 21, 2013, 08:58:44 AM
OK, let me poke a little fun in here among the potentially very serious consequenses of this election...

Quote
Among a number of other election posters in the city of Ferrara in Italy is one showing an in Denmark well-known face.

"With Monti's government has too many young people left Italy. Pia, retired.", says the poster followed by the slogan:

"Also I vote Rivoluzione Civilians. Together we will win."

The face belongs to the Danish People's Party values spokesman Kjærsgaard, and after the posters have been hung up, has the mistake also been discovered by a number of Italian websites:

[...]

"Pia, retired Italian and critic of Monti's government is in fact Pia Merete Kjærsgaard, born in Copenhagen and head of an ultra right-wing Danish party," writes fanpage.it.

According to several Italian blogs are the posters not official posters from Rivoluzione Civilians, but made by a sympathizer, who has personally edited, printed and hung them up. The posters are hung up in connection with the forthcoming Italian elections 24th and 25 February.

The party headquarters told several media outlets that they do not know about the posters.

[...]

According to marketing company LOL Marketing has the picture most probably been bought as a so-called genre picture, and then deployed and used on the poster.

"The only tiny problem is that it shows Pia Merete Kjærsgaard, co-founder of the Danish People's Party, a strong national conservative Danish party," they wrote.

Translated from
politiken.dk/indland/ECE1903512/italienske-revolutionaere-misbruger-pensionisten-pia-kjaersgaard-i-valgkamp/
(sorry, can't post links and pictures, use copy/paste instead - if someone would copy the picture of the poster from this site, it would be nice).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 21, 2013, 10:26:20 AM
Martin Schultz (German President of the European Parliament) told Italians not to vote for Berlusconi. Many will remember that Silvio once compared Schultz to a Nazi concentration camp guard.

I hope these people know that these warnings probably help Berlusconi more than they hurt...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 21, 2013, 04:11:55 PM
Martin Schultz (German President of the European Parliament) told Italians not to vote for Berlusconi. Many will remember that Silvio once compared Schultz to a Nazi concentration camp guard.

I hope these people know that these warnings probably help Berlusconi more than they hurt...

If you are right, that means Monti saying that Germany fears a Bersani victory would help the left, too?

I know, I'm getting desperate... :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on February 22, 2013, 03:52:16 AM
Martin Schultz (German President of the European Parliament) told Italians not to vote for Berlusconi. Many will remember that Silvio once compared Schultz to a Nazi concentration camp guard.

I hope these people know that these warnings probably help Berlusconi more than they hurt...

Actually neither help nor hurt. Schultz is already well known as Silvio's enemy, it's not a surprise as it would have been if some other more bipartisan european leader had expressed himself


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 22, 2013, 08:33:00 AM
Last day of campaigning. It's been fun. Hope there are some entertaining stories today.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 22, 2013, 09:29:28 AM
Berlusconi is skipping the final rally in Naples today due to minor health issues. He will address the crowd by video.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 22, 2013, 11:47:24 AM
Serious flooding in Catania. Any Italians want to weigh in on the impact this could have? The city and surrounding areas went pretty strongly for the center-right in 2006 and 2008.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 22, 2013, 01:01:59 PM
Serious flooding in Catania. Any Italians want to weigh in on the impact this could have? The city and surrounding areas went pretty strongly for the center-right in 2006 and 2008.

Hopefully, some mafiosi will drown.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 22, 2013, 01:08:55 PM
I didn't follow leaked polls. So now I can't figure out what are the nicknames of various pollsters.

I suppose Grillo got his momentum back and he will comfortably comes ahead of Monti.



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on February 22, 2013, 02:53:53 PM
Serious flooding in Catania. Any Italians want to weigh in on the impact this could have? The city and surrounding areas went pretty strongly for the center-right in 2006 and 2008.

Hopefully, some mafiosi will drown.
While I appreciate the fun potential of this post, I would gladly take info on the initial question by Phil, because it might be of a substantial importance. After all, this election is bound to be played at a 2-3% stake...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 22, 2013, 03:03:35 PM
Serious flooding in Catania. Any Italians want to weigh in on the impact this could have? The city and surrounding areas went pretty strongly for the center-right in 2006 and 2008.

Hopefully, some mafiosi will drown.
While I appreciate the fun potential of this post, I would gladly take info on the initial question by Phil, because it might be of a substantial importance. After all, this election is bound to be played at a 2-3% stake...

Well, Catania isn't that big, compared to the average population of Italy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 22, 2013, 03:54:08 PM
Grillo's final rally has quite a crowd in Rome.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 22, 2013, 04:51:14 PM
Anyone catch the line ups this weekend?


()


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Hash on February 22, 2013, 05:01:41 PM
Coming from Berlusconi, I would have though 'giustizia' and 'trasparenza' would be playing for the other team.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 22, 2013, 05:06:26 PM
It's probably "giustizia parziale" if written in long, given his tendency to try vote laws granting himself immunity.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 22, 2013, 05:24:18 PM
"lotta all'evasione" and "equazione del benessere" are just as hilarious, of course. That said, this being Berlusconi, I wouldn't be surprised if he has added other things like "good morals", "youth", "competence", etc...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 22, 2013, 06:14:32 PM
"lotta all'evasione" and "equazione del benessere" are just as hilarious, of course. That said, this being Berlusconi, I wouldn't be surprised if he has added other things like "good morals", "youth", "competence", etc...

"Celibacy"


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on February 22, 2013, 06:50:19 PM
Players can always score own goals of course... :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 22, 2013, 06:52:38 PM
Players can always score own goals of course... :P

I thought that as well.  ;)  I think they purposely placed Giannino in the opposition goal to suggest a very late goal keeper error if Silvio actually does narrowly pull this out. I'm guessing you were suggesting an own goal on the other side though.  :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 22, 2013, 06:53:12 PM
I know most of the names there, but who are Casini, Giannino and Montezemolo (that last one sounds like a wine)?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Hash on February 22, 2013, 07:00:08 PM
I know most of the names there, but who are Casini, Giannino and Montezemolo (that last one sounds like a wine)?

Casini: useless boring hack who is the leader of the Monti-loving 'Union of the Centre' (failed DC wannabies)

Montezemolo: former boss of Ferrari and the employers' federation, leader of a small party which is part of Monti's Scelta Civica. Centre-right and anti-Berlusconi

Giannino: useless moron/fraud leading some even more useless neoliberal party, frauded his resume by saying he had a law degree and masters from Chicago School of Economics. Will win the austerity-loving creeps and nobody else.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Kitteh on February 23, 2013, 12:34:29 AM
"lotta all'evasione" and "equazione del benessere" are just as hilarious, of course. That said, this being Berlusconi, I wouldn't be surprised if he has added other things like "good morals", "youth", "competence", etc...

That one might be serious. Berlusconi seems to love youth.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 23, 2013, 02:42:02 AM
Anyone catch the line ups this weekend?


()
Typical PdL,make it look as it's a football match.
A bit like you.


Anyhow a swiss-italian journal interviewed several pollsters,and they all agreed that Bersani's advantage was quite substantial,and the only sure thing was how Berlusconi could never,ever get a majority in both House and Senate.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 23, 2013, 02:42:45 AM
I know most of the names there, but who are Casini, Giannino and Montezemolo (that last one sounds like a wine)?

Casini: useless boring hack who is the leader of the Monti-loving 'Union of the Centre' (failed DC wannabies)

Montezemolo: former boss of Ferrari and the employers' federation, leader of a small party which is part of Monti's Scelta Civica. Centre-right and anti-Berlusconi

Giannino: useless moron/fraud leading some even more useless neoliberal party, frauded his resume by saying he had a law degree and masters from Chicago School of Economics. Will win the austerity-loving creeps and nobody else.
Giannino also invented having an economics degree,FWIW.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 23, 2013, 07:07:16 AM
Well, time for my prediction:

30% IBC
27% Berlusconi
21% M5S
14% Monti
  4% RC
  4% Others

The PD should be the strongest party. M5S could actually come in as the 2nd strongest party, but I'm not sure. Depends on the size of the protest vote.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 23, 2013, 08:42:32 AM
Anyone catch the line ups this weekend?


()
Typical PdL,make it look as it's a football match.
A bit like you.

Lighten the hell up. Christ.

And, for the record, reputable news organizations and posters have discussed Football's role in this election but if you think I believe the game will be the deciding factor in this election, that's your problem.

Quote
Anyhow a swiss-italian journal interviewed several pollsters,and they all agreed that Bersani's advantage was quite substantial,and the only sure thing was how Berlusconi could never,ever get a majority in both House and Senate.

And what did these people say when they predicted Prodi's comfortable win and Berlusconi's two point win in 2008?

Just playing devil's advocate so spare us the "BERLUSCONI LOVER!!!" routine. ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 23, 2013, 08:48:25 AM
I won't lighten the hell up because these elections actually have an impact on the country I LIVE in,and not only one I am interested in.

Anyhow,in 2006 polls stopped before Berlusconi declared on TV that he would remove the ICI tax.
In 2008,most of the polls showed a lead far above 2 points.

Now,polls had been showing Berlusconi steady at 18-19% before the "2 weeks censorship break",so there was no momentum whatsoever,and in these 2 weeks nothing has happened that could have helped him. At the most,I am prepared to see Grillo perform better than expected,unfortunately.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 23, 2013, 09:14:11 AM
Ok, so I'm sure you flipped out when PD had your candidates as super heroes during the primary since this is super serious business. ::)  And, of course, I guess I should have flipped out over every little joke during the U.S. Presidential election since, you know, I live here and not "just" interested in the country.

Exit polls right after voting ended still showed Prodi up by five so the black out rule isn't relevant. And according to one poster, the actual exits only showed Berlusconi only up two. I think it's fair to say that he usually under polls.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 23, 2013, 09:18:36 AM
Ok, so I'm sure you flipped out when PD had your candidates as super heroes during the primary since this is super serious business. ::)  And, of course, I guess I should have flipped out over every little joke during the U.S. Presidential election since, you know, I live here and not "just" interested in the country.

Exit polls right after voting ended still showed Prodi up by five so the black out rule isn't relevant. And according to one poster, the actual exits only showed Berlusconi only up two. I think it's fair to say that he usually under polls.

But if the usual voter which lies to pollsters is a protest voter which finally decide to vote for Berlusconi, what is saying us than they won't vote for Grillo, this time?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 23, 2013, 09:28:34 AM
Very fair point but I think the general thought that Grillo is literally a joke might prevent a lot of people from "pulling the trigger." I do, however, think he will be a strong third. Monti is going to be embarrassed.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on February 23, 2013, 09:40:27 AM
I won't lighten the hell up because these elections actually have an impact on the country I LIVE in,and not only one I am interested in.

Anyhow,in 2006 polls stopped before Berlusconi declared on TV that he would remove the ICI tax.
In 2008,most of the polls showed a lead far above 2 points.

Now,polls had been showing Berlusconi steady at 18-19% before the "2 weeks censorship break",so there was no momentum whatsoever,and in these 2 weeks nothing has happened that could have helped him. At the most,I am prepared to see Grillo perform better than expected,unfortunately.

I fully understand you. And I would actually be glad if some people could stop to clutter up this thread with irrelevant chater and "fun stories".

Over the last days, several questions have been asked on how certain events (corruption scandals, flooding, perceived 'external intervention', etc.) might influence the vote. I remain highly interested in the Italian posters' respective opinion, as well as any other "field reports".


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 23, 2013, 10:00:51 AM
There have been a few stories about Football. A few. Like it or not, it's been discussed as a factor by serious people. I don't know what else here classifies as a "fun story." The people that most consistently post here like me and Antonio post plenty of other news and questions. :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on February 23, 2013, 10:37:54 AM
Last day of campaigning. It's been fun. Hope there are some entertaining stories today.

I wasn't referring to football alone (i actually joked about that as well). I just think its time all of us reallise that this election is a really important one, and start discussing accordingly.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 23, 2013, 10:39:25 AM
Anyone else want to try a party prediction ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 23, 2013, 10:49:08 AM
My turnout estimate is missing: 77% (-3)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 23, 2013, 10:56:48 AM
Well, about flooding, what there is to add?

Sure, flooded people don't got voting (Canada has two examples of that, in 1997 in the Red River Valley and in 2011 in the Richelieu Valley). But it shouldn't have an effect on the House except if it's very, very tight (less than 0.01%). For Senate, the effect could be bigger if Sicily is close, but I don't believe it will be.

And, sure, the left is the one favorised by that flooding (less right-wingers voting).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on February 23, 2013, 11:15:37 AM
Did polls (the older ones, or the 'leaked' ones) give any indication on the gender gap? I would imagine that, as in most industrialised countries, the female vote is traditionally more left-leaning (and 'greener') than the male vote, and Berlusconi's scandals may have  widened the gap.

What about Grillo supporters? "Pirate" pattern, i.e. predominantly young, urban males (which would make a 'protest vote' swing from Berlusconi to Grillo plausible), or also reasonably strong female support?

Gender mix of "undecideds"? In the 2008 and 2012 US elections, they were primarily lower-class, less educated females (the supermarket cashier / waitress / nurse demographics), and went heavily for Obama. Can a similar pattern be expected for Italy (neither Bersani nor Monti appear to be the type of politician that has particular appeal to such women) ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 23, 2013, 12:22:23 PM
This sort've reminds me of France last year. The gap closing to an eye-watering level, but the favourite eventually just getting over the line.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 23, 2013, 12:40:24 PM
Last day of campaigning. It's been fun. Hope there are some entertaining stories today.

I wasn't referring to football alone (i actually joked about that as well). I just think its time all of us reallise that this election is a really important one, and start discussing accordingly.

It's been an exciting watch. We're political nerds. You should know what "fun" means in this context. Some of you need to relax.

And, again, important things have been discussed throughout this thread.

Anyway, I'll probably do a party result prediction later today. I will say that I expect turnout to be down to 75%. Remarkable that that's considered "low" for a national election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 23, 2013, 01:46:31 PM

Anyhow,in 2006 polls stopped before Berlusconi declared on TV that he would remove the ICI tax.In 2008,most of the polls showed a lead far above 2 points.


IIRC the exit poll in 2006 had Prodi winning 52 to 48%.

However, I can't recall the race being down to 2% in 2008. IIRC the impression at the time was always that Berlusconi was comfortably in the lead.


Poor weather expected tommorrow in many areas. It can impact turnout.
Maybe those claiming "I don't know. It's really hard this time. I'm undecided" (which usually means they will vote Berlusconi) won't show up if they have to overcome some snowballs.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 23, 2013, 06:16:03 PM
As far as I'm concerned, I can't emphasize enough how much this campaign has disappointed me. Not so much because of Berlusconi's shenanigans, because Monti proved to be a total idiot,  because Bersani's campaign was as dull as you can possibly imagine, or because the useless lefty outfit is going to spoil tons of votes. Because of all of this, but mainly because, after all the crazy, unthinkable stuff that happened in the past 2 years, scandal and drama of all sorts, this all ends up being the exact same campaign as usual. This is basically 2006 and 2008 all over again, except with a couple more second-class players who'll do nothing but spoil the results. The campaign was the usual sh*tfest full of useless bickering over the scandal-of-the-day or the insane-idea-of-the-day. I know I should never have expected more in the first place, but see, for a few months I actually thought this was really the beginning of the Third Republic. I thought that voters had clearly decided they wanted to put an end to the way politics had been done in the past 20 years. But ultimately all we have seen in this campaign is the usual stuff (apart from Grillo, but that's not much better). Whatever the result is, this is already a massive failure for Italy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on February 23, 2013, 07:15:41 PM
As far as I'm concerned, I can't emphasize enough how much this campaign has disappointed me. Not so much because of Berlusconi's shenanigans, because Monti proved to be a total idiot,  because Bersani's campaign was as dull as you can possibly imagine, or because the useless lefty outfit is going to spoil tons of votes. Because of all of this, but mainly because, after all the crazy, unthinkable stuff that happened in the past 2 years, scandal and drama of all sorts, this all ends up being the exact same campaign as usual. This is basically 2006 and 2008 all over again, except with a couple more second-class players who'll do nothing but spoil the results. The campaign was the usual sh*tfest full of useless bickering over the scandal-of-the-day or the insane-idea-of-the-day. I know I should never have expected more in the first place, but see, for a few months I actually thought this was really the beginning of the Third Republic. I thought that voters had clearly decided they wanted to put an end to the way politics had been done in the past 20 years. But ultimately all we have seen in this campaign is the usual stuff (apart from Grillo, but that's not much better). Whatever the result is, this is already a massive failure for Italy.

I don't know if this will be any condolence to you, but I am looking forward to a pretty similar experience in the German elections this autumn. Austria doen't look much better, and my guess is that the French might share your feeling as well.

Welcome to the European mainstream, Italy !


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 23, 2013, 07:25:35 PM
As far as I'm concerned, I can't emphasize enough how much this campaign has disappointed me. Not so much because of Berlusconi's shenanigans, because Monti proved to be a total idiot,  because Bersani's campaign was as dull as you can possibly imagine, or because the useless lefty outfit is going to spoil tons of votes. Because of all of this, but mainly because, after all the crazy, unthinkable stuff that happened in the past 2 years, scandal and drama of all sorts, this all ends up being the exact same campaign as usual. This is basically 2006 and 2008 all over again, except with a couple more second-class players who'll do nothing but spoil the results. The campaign was the usual sh*tfest full of useless bickering over the scandal-of-the-day or the insane-idea-of-the-day. I know I should never have expected more in the first place, but see, for a few months I actually thought this was really the beginning of the Third Republic. I thought that voters had clearly decided they wanted to put an end to the way politics had been done in the past 20 years. But ultimately all we have seen in this campaign is the usual stuff (apart from Grillo, but that's not much better). Whatever the result is, this is already a massive failure for Italy.

I don't know if this will be any condolence to you, but I am looking forward to a pretty similar experience in the German elections this autumn. Austria doen't look much better, and my guess is that the French might share your feeling as well.

Welcome to the European mainstream, Italy !

Italy is different though, because we were starting from much lower. Becoming like France or Germany politically would already be a MASSIVE improvement.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 23, 2013, 09:41:43 PM
Prediction


Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 29%
M5S - 20%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4%
Others - 3%


I do believe, however, that the center-right will narrowly win the Senate. As stated earlier, I think turnout will be 75%.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 23, 2013, 09:45:28 PM
My prediction: IBC wins by 5-6 in the Chamber, forced into a formal Senate coalition with Monti.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 23, 2013, 11:25:34 PM
All right, I guess I have to make a try at predicting what happens on Monday. Don't expect me to be objective, though. Considering the circumstances, it's beyond my abilities.

Left: 34% (PD 29%, SEL 4%, others 1%)
Right: 27% (PdL 18%, Lega 4%, LD 1.5%, FdI 1.5%, others 2%)
M5S: 21%
Monti: 12% (Monti 8%, UDC 3%, FLI 1%)
RC: 3%
FiD: 1%
Others: 2%

In the Senate, I'd say left wins Lazio and Campania, Lombardia is a tossup and the right wins Sicilia.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Vosem on February 24, 2013, 12:22:28 AM
Some predictions, in no particular order:

  • Bersani will place first.
  • It will be closer than predicted; someone -- either the right or Grillo -- will place decisively second.
  • Berlusconi and Grillo will continue to influence Italian politics for some time yet. Bersani will only last a couple of years before leaving and either being forgotten or remembered very unfavorably by everyone.
  • The Senate will be a complete cluster. Nobody will exercise any real control.
  • Not at this election, but at some point in the future, Berlusconi will be Prime Minister again.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 24, 2013, 01:58:46 AM
Berlusconi is seventy-six already, Vosem.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 24, 2013, 03:46:55 AM
Prediction


Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 29%
M5S - 20%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4%
Others - 3%


I do believe, however, that the center-right will narrowly win the Senate. As stated earlier, I think turnout will be 75%.
Ah,this is fun,since it is mathematically impossible for Berlusconi to win the Senate.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 24, 2013, 03:50:16 AM
Last day of campaigning. It's been fun. Hope there are some entertaining stories today.

I wasn't referring to football alone (i actually joked about that as well). I just think its time all of us reallise that this election is a really important one, and start discussing accordingly.
This.

Anyway,floodings are not that severe in Sicily. If they do have an impact,it will be against Berlusconi,since Catania's area is (was) a PdL stronghold.

As for the gender gap,I honestly don't know. My perception is that here it is much smaller than in the US or elsewhere.

Exit polls in 2008: no exit poll showed a 2% lead; I remember the first exit poll said that Berlusconi's lead was somewhere within 2% and 5-6%,and they did not give exact numbers because of 2006's debacle. And again,now it is much different from 2006 or 2008,Berlusconi has no momentum,and there are many alternatives from the two main coalitions.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 24, 2013, 03:56:57 AM
My predictions:

Italia Bene Comune : 35%
PD 30%
SeL 4%
Centro Democratico + PSI 1%

Berlusconi: 27%
PdL 19%
Lega Nord 4%
Fratelli d'Italia 2%
La Destra 1%
Others 1%

M5S 21%

Monti: 12%
Scelta Civica 8%
UdC 3%
FLI 1%

Rivoluzione Civile 3%
Fare per Fermare il Declino 1%
Others 1%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: palandio on February 24, 2013, 04:42:07 AM
A bit late, but here is mine:

Center-left 34%
-PD 29%
-SEL 3.5%
-Others (CD, PSI, SVP, Megafono) 1.5%

Center-right 27%
-PdL 18%
-Lega 4%
-Fratelli 2.5%
-Destra 1%
-Others 1.5%

M5* 22.3%

Center 9.7%
-Civica Monti 6.5%
-UdC 2.5%
-FLI 0.7%

Riv. Civ. 4%
FID 1.5%
Others 1.5%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 24, 2013, 05:19:57 AM
Monti below 10% and thus not getting any deputies in the Lower Chamber?
It would be a huge surprise.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: palandio on February 24, 2013, 05:49:02 AM
If Monti's Coalition fell below the 10% threshold, its three lists would be treated like single parties. Hence the new threshold would be 4% (for each party) and the Monti-Montezemolo list would still make it into the Chamber, while Casini and Fini would probably remain out.

The same holds for Berlusconi's coalition if it fell under 20% in the Tuscany and Emilia Senate elections: The new threshold would be 8% for each single party of the coalition and hence PdL would still get some seats, the votes for the other lists of the coalition would be wasted.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 24, 2013, 06:15:06 AM
If Monti's Coalition fell below the 10% threshold, its three lists would be treated like single parties. Hence the new threshold would be 4% (for each party) and the Monti-Montezemolo list would still make it into the Chamber, while Casini and Fini would probably remain out.

The same holds for Berlusconi's coalition if it fell under 20% in the Tuscany and Emilia Senate elections: The new threshold would be 8% for each single party of the coalition and hence PdL would still get some seats, the votes for the other lists of the coalition would be wasted.
Huh,didn't know that.
I thought that if a coalition did not pass 10%,then all the parties within the coalition would authomatically get no deputies.



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2013, 06:55:38 AM
Turnout is down at the 1st measurement at 12:00 local time:

14.8% vs. 16.5% in the 2008 elections

http://elezioni.interno.it/camera/votanti/20130224/Cvotanti.htm

So, we are heading towards 72-78% turnout.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 24, 2013, 06:59:49 AM
Historically,high turnout is good for Berlusconi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: palandio on February 24, 2013, 07:41:54 AM
One further prediction:
I think that the Center-Right will probably not win in Sicily. They have lost most of the protest vote and many of the people that really count on the regional level have switched allegiance to where the power is now, after the last regional elections.

Turnout will likely be lower than in 2008, which hurts Berlusconi, but on the other hand the 12:00 number are probably depressed by bad weather esp. in the North.
Additionally Grillo will actually win some voters that stayed home in 2008.
(By the way I would not vote Grillo, the 22.3% I gave to him are not wishful thinking.)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 09:01:19 AM
Prediction


Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 29%
M5S - 20%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4%
Others - 3%


I do believe, however, that the center-right will narrowly win the Senate. As stated earlier, I think turnout will be 75%.
Ah,this is fun,since it is mathematically impossible for Berlusconi to win the Senate.


I haven't seen that mentioned anywhere. No where at all. Not here, not anywhere in the press. So please try to explain without being a condescending prick (like you have been this entire time). Many thanks.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Diouf on February 24, 2013, 09:24:20 AM
Prediction


Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 29%
M5S - 20%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4%
Others - 3%


I do believe, however, that the center-right will narrowly win the Senate. As stated earlier, I think turnout will be 75%.
Ah,this is fun,since it is mathematically impossible for Berlusconi to win the Senate.


I haven't seen that mentioned anywhere. No where at all. Not here, not anywhere in the press. So please try to explain without being a condescending prick (like you have been this entire time). Many thanks.

It's of course not mathematically impossible for Berlusconi to win the Senate, but it will take an enormous swing when looking at the polling. The Centre-right will have to win regions like Lazio, Sardinia, Liguria and Marche. The last polls in those regions showed a lead for the centre-left on 9.5, 10, 10, and 12 % respectively. That is quite a lot of ground to make up.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 24, 2013, 09:25:51 AM
Turnout at 12:00
14.94%   (16.51% in 2008)

By area:

Piedmont 1 (Turin): 15.4%
Piedmont II (the rest of the region) 15.61%
Lombardy 1 (Milan and Monza): 17.76%
Lombardy II (North part of the region): 17.79%
Lombardy III (southern part): 17.27%
Trentino Alto Adigo: 16.46%
Veneto I: 18.71%
Veneto II: 18.22%
Friuli Veneza Giulia: 17.98%
Liguria: 19.2%
Emilia Romaga: 20.41%
Valle d'Aosta: 17.67%
Tuscany: 17.17%
Umbria: 15.49%
Marche: 15.63%
Lazio I (Rome): 15.58%
Lazio II (the rest): 13.22%
Abruzzo: 12.48%
Molise: 12.33%
Campania I (Naples): 10.8%
Campania II (the rest): 10.39%
Apulia: 11.62%
Basilicata: 9.71%
Calabria: 8.07%
Sicily I: 9.26%
Sicily II: 10.61%
Sardinia: 12.49%

Highest provincial score: Ferrara (22.64%)
Lowerst: Reggio Calabria (6.45%)

.........

I went to vote at 10 AM ("village" north of Monza). Not many people around polling stations but not empty either. It was already snowing.
I took my grandmother to vote at 11:30 (village west of Milan). It wasn't snowing yet there. Lots of people around. Queues. There was barely room in the hallways. But the mass just finished and the church was 5 minutes by walk away from polling station. Now it's snowing there too, so I guess it can slow down now.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 09:41:32 AM
It's of course not mathematically impossible for Berlusconi to win the Senate, but it will take an enormous swing when looking at the polling. The Centre-right will have to win regions like Lazio, Sardinia, Liguria and Marche. The last polls in those regions showed a lead for the centre-left on 9.5, 10, 10, and 12 % respectively. That is quite a lot of ground to make up.

That's what I figured (though I didn't know they had to win that many challenging areas). Thanks for informing me and respectfully making the point as opposed to someone that comes in here, bitches the entire time at people he sees as the "enemy" (a lot like Silvio) then wants to lecture about the tone of the thread.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 09:49:09 AM
Shirtless feminist activists protested Berlusconi at his polling place. I'm not sure he minded though.  :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 24, 2013, 09:59:45 AM
Shirtless feminist activists protested Berlusconi at his polling place. I'm not sure he minded though.  :P

Depends on whether they were Moroccan. ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 10:25:24 AM
Antonio should post the link Tender shared - http://elezioni.interno.it/camera/votanti/20130224/Cvotanti.htm (http://elezioni.interno.it/camera/votanti/20130224/Cvotanti.htm) - in the first post if we aren't going to have a results thread. The ministry did a great job: all the information you need and a very easy-to-navigate layout.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zuza on February 24, 2013, 10:53:53 AM
Maybe it's too late, but I try to predict results too:
Bersani - 34.3%
   PD - 30.0%
   SEL - 3.4%
   DC - 0.5%
   SVP - 0.4%
Berlusconi - 29.3%
   PdL - 19.5%
   LN - 5.2%
   LD - 1.7%
   FdI - 1.6%
   Others - 1.3%
M5S - 18.9%
Monti - 10.3%
   SC - 6.9%
   UdC - 2.7%
   FLI - 0.7%
RC - 3.4%
FID - 2.4%
AGL - 0.5%
Others - 0.9%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on February 24, 2013, 11:31:02 AM
Prediction


Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 29%
M5S - 20%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4%
Others - 3%


I do believe, however, that the center-right will narrowly win the Senate. As stated earlier, I think turnout will be 75%.
Ah,this is fun,since it is mathematically impossible for Berlusconi to win the Senate.


I haven't seen that mentioned anywhere. No where at all. Not here, not anywhere in the press. So please try to explain without being a condescending prick (like you have been this entire time). Many thanks.
To get a majority in the Senate,he has to win Lazio,Puglia,Piemonte,Calabria,Friuli..other than the known battlegrounds of Sicilia,Lombardia,Campania and even Veneto.
So yeah,like Piepoli said in an interview to a Swiss newspaper,it is mathematically impossible for the center-right to win a majority.

Unless of course there is a 15-20% swing today and tomorrow,who knows.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Vosem on February 24, 2013, 11:47:30 AM
Berlusconi is seventy-six already, Vosem.

Still.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 24, 2013, 11:59:06 AM
What are the odds of a centre-right upset in the Chamber of Deputies? I'd say no more than 10-15% myself, but curious as to what others think.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 24, 2013, 12:48:44 PM
Let's join the prediction game...

Bersani 34% (PD 30% SEL 3%)
Berlusconi 28% (PDL 20% Lega 4% I don't know have a clue on which will come out on top between Storaca and Meloni)
Grillo 20%
Monti 11% (Monti 6% UDC 4% Fini 1.something%)
Ingroia 3.something%


Title: Turnout update: not so bad after all?
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 01:05:07 PM
Maybe turnout won't be down that much. The 19:00 numbers are in: in 2008, they were at 45.62% at this time. Now, it's 44%.


Title: Re: Turnout update: not so bad after all?
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2013, 01:06:45 PM
Maybe turnout won't be down that much. The 19:00 numbers are in: in 2008, they were at 45.62% at this time. Now, it's 44%.

Of course only a small fraction of towns have reported so far. Reporting just started 6 minutes ago.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 01:09:51 PM
Yeah, I just noticed that. I thought it was like an exit poll and an estimate was dumped all at once.

What I don't understand (even though it's a minor difference): they had turnout listed at 45.62% at this point in 2008. Now it's down to 45.6%. The 2008 numbers couldn't suddenly change. Typo, perhaps?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2013, 01:10:54 PM
Marche, Molise and Turin actually have higher turnout compared with 2008, with the towns already reporting.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2013, 01:13:31 PM
What I don't understand (even though it's a minor difference): they had turnout listed at 45.62% at this point in 2008. Now it's down to 45.6%. The 2008 numbers couldn't suddenly change. Typo, perhaps?

It's not a typo, it's a rolling update. They are using 2008 figures compared with the towns already counted. The more towns are counted, the 2008 figures are updated as well.

For example if there are 200 out of 400 towns counted in 1 region with 50% turnout and then another 50 towns are added with 55% turnout from 2008, the overall updated 2008 turnout figure also increases.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 01:16:28 PM
I just don't understand why they wouldn't have each town's/the national turnout percent at this point in 2008 already pumped in and then just update the current percent.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2013, 01:18:49 PM
I just don't understand why they wouldn't have each town's/the national turnout percent at this point in 2008 already pumped in and then just update the current percent.

They are using the final 2008 turnout figures from each town, but the 2008 turnout changes as more towns are updated with different 2008 turnout data.

Of course, once that all of the 8.092 towns are in, even the 2008 turnout is unmoveable and final.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2013, 01:23:43 PM
Turnout is now running about 2.4% behind the 2008-values of the already counted towns.

About 80% of the towns have already reported their 19:00 figure.

78% (-2.5) total turnout now looks likely.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 24, 2013, 01:25:07 PM
I would predict 75% turnout at the end.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 01:26:50 PM
Basilicata (left wing stronghold) is down by 3.4%. Looks like Puglia will be down by about 2%. Naples still has a lot left to report but turnout is currently down by 5% there.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2013, 01:27:01 PM
I would predict 75% turnout at the end.

I predicted 77%.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 01:30:26 PM

I predicted 75%.  ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2013, 01:32:37 PM
Turnout in the leftist strongholds (Toskana, Emilia-Romania, Marche) is surprisingly good and often up compared with 2008.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2013, 01:36:42 PM
Turnout in the Berlusconi areas, especially in the South and Milan suburbs, looks bad.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 01:37:44 PM
Turnout in the leftist strongholds (Toskana, Emilia-Romania, Marche) is surprisingly good and often up compared with 2008.

Marginally down in Tuscany. It's up in Emilia-Romagna and barely up in Marche though.


Turnout in the Berlusconi areas, especially in the South and Milan suburbs, looks bad.

In some southern areas, that's good for him and remember: the Milan Derby starts in an hour. Turnout in Milan might bounce tomorrow.  :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2013, 01:39:54 PM
What exactly are the Grillo strongholds, based on recent regional or so elections ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2013, 01:43:58 PM
Hmm, turnout especially in Napoli and surroundings and Sicily and Calabria (all Silvio strongholds) are worrying for the bunga-bunga-dude. Hopefully he gets crushed tomorrow.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 01:49:39 PM
Silvio's coalition has been struggling in Campania and I think low turnout in the city itself is actually good for him. Sicily isn't looking too bad especially when you consider the Catania flooding. As for Calabria, it went for Berlusconi in 2001 and 2008 but isn't it traditionally favorable to the left?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: palandio on February 24, 2013, 01:50:53 PM
In the 2010 regional elections Grillo contested five regions.
His best showing in 2010 was in Emilia-Romagna.
But in the Susa Valley (Province of Torino, Piemonte) there where even comunes where he reached almost 30% (in 2010).
In 2012 the city of Parma (Emilia) elected a M5S candidate as mayor.
His home town is Genoa where M5S had a relatively strong result, too.
Sicily was surprisingly good for him, I guess his strongest regional election result so far.

It's difficult to say where his strongholds really are because in many regions and comunes this election will be the first election contested by Grillo. I even have the suspect that much of the protest vote in Veneto is going from Lega and separatists to Grillo.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2013, 01:53:00 PM
In the 2010 regional elections Grillo contested five regions.
His best showing in 2010 was in Emilia-Romagna.
But in the Susa Valley (Province of Torino, Piemonte) there where even comunes where he reached almost 30% (in 2010).
In 2012 the city of Parma (Emilia) elected a M5S candidate as mayor.
His home town is Genoa where M5S had a relatively strong result, too.
Sicily was surprisingly good for him, I guess his strongest regional election result so far.

It's difficult to say where his strongholds really are because in many regions and comunes this election will be the first election contested by Grillo. I even have the suspect that much of the protest vote in Veneto is going from Lega and separatists to Grillo.

Considering this, M5S might actually get close to 25% tomorrow. If he rises, who do you think is he hurting more ? The IBC or the Silvio coalition ? It's very hard to find crosstabs of Italian polls for example to see how the young or olds vote etc.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 24, 2013, 01:59:15 PM
Seems to me like he's hurting Berlusconi. I remember SB's numbers going up when Grillo's went down a few weeks ago. One thing we know for sure: SB is trolling hard for the low and ultra-low info segment of the electorate with his unicorn-that-kinda-nukes-the-economy "policies."


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 02:02:06 PM
Grillo isn't getting 25% or even close to second place, guys. Sure, he saw his numbers really spike but I think a lot of this is media hype.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: palandio on February 24, 2013, 02:20:36 PM
Two or three years ago Grillo got most of his support from former center-left voters (especially radical left) and historical abstentionists. These still remain in his base. But much of the growth in the last year has come from former Lega and PdL voters.
The PD on the other hand has consolidated its voter base. (The slight PD decline of the last two months is more a product of Berlusconi and Grillo mobilizing voters that otherwise would have stayed at home.)

Digging further into the turnout dates I would say that they look not so good for Lega, PdL and SVP, good for Grillo and relatively good for the PD. Veneto though doesn't fit into the narrative of Lega and PdL voters staying home.

Take for example the province of Genova:
Turnout at 19:00 went from 48.81% in 2008 to 50.16% today.
from 48.87% to 50.49% in left-wing Genova city.
from 52.39% to 57.01% in left-leaning Arenzano.
from 48.61% to 48.24% in right-wing Chiavari (this is relatively strong).
from 49.61% to 46.78% in right-wing Rapallo.
from 49.92% to 47.21% in right-wing S.Margherita.
from 51.61% to 50.63% in left-wing Sestri Levante (this is relatively weak).
These are the biggest comunes.
Then there are cases like left-wing stronghold S.Olcese in the Genova hinterland where turnout went from 45.68% to 55.24%.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 24, 2013, 02:38:25 PM
Regional elections turnout

Lombardy 51.23%
Lazio 44.37%
Molise 32.96%

it seems lots of people are refusing to take up the regional ballot paper in Molise. In Lombardy and Lazio the figures are also a bit down but not so much compared to the House turnout.



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on February 24, 2013, 04:06:38 PM
Checked out some of the polls myself. Italy does not really seem to have invented socio-economic background analysis - its all horse-race top numbers.

Nevertheless, as the Senate minimum voting age is 25, it might be possible to infere on the 18-25 vote by comparing Camera and Senate polling (assuming the pollsters are filtering out non-eligible respondents for their Senate results).

The table below lists the Camera minus Senate differences per coalition for the Feb. 8 Ipsos poll (the only one I have found so far that covers both chambers nationally):

Bersani              -0.7           
Berlusconi          -0.6       
Grillo                 +0.4           
Monti                 +1.3           
Ingroia              +0.1 
others                -0,5       

This indicates that both Bersani and Berlusconi are having problems with the youth vote, which is instead being absorbed by Grillo and, surprisingly, Monti.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: palandio on February 24, 2013, 04:22:57 PM
Turnout in the last three hours has been as low as you can possibly get.

I would be cautious about infering on the 18-25 vote based on the differences in one single poll. Assume that the poll had an effective sample size of 1000 respondents. Then for the Monti coalition the standard deviation is about 10 respondents. We are really getting into two handfuls of persons...
The next problem with your analysis is the "disjoint" vote where voters split their ticket, often for tactical reasons. (Immagine some left-wing voter in Lombardy that votes RC for the Chamber because he wants them to get in and believes Berlusconi's coalition won't win on the national level anyway; and SEL for the Senate because RC stands no chance to get over 8% and he doesn't want Lombardy to give its majority bonus to Berlusconi...)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 24, 2013, 04:24:34 PM
You're overestimating the intelligence of the average voter.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on February 24, 2013, 04:47:36 PM
I would be cautious about infering on the 18-25 vote based on the differences in one single poll. Assume that the poll had an effective sample size of 1000 respondents. Then for the Monti coalition the standard deviation is about 10 respondents. We are really getting into two handfuls of persons...
You are right, of course. Unfortunately, that single poll seems to be the only information that is available at all

The next problem with your analysis is the "disjoint" vote where voters split their ticket, often for tactical reasons. (Immagine some left-wing voter in Lombardy that votes RC for the Chamber because he wants them to get in and believes Berlusconi's coalition won't win on the national level anyway; and SEL for the Senate because RC stands no chance to get over 8% and he doesn't want Lombardy to give its majority bonus to Berlusconi...)

Such ticket splitting is extremely common in Germany, but I wasn't aware of its relevance for Italy.
How would other possible splits look, that could explain some of the differences in the IPSOS polls? Monti for the Chamber, Berlusconi (Lega) for Senate? Maybe, but does not sound convincing to me. Monti for the Chamber, Bersani for Senate (the centrist anti-Berlusconi vote), however, could make more sense, depending on the region.  But why would someone vote Grillo for the Chamber, and not for Senate?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 24, 2013, 04:48:30 PM
Hi guys! :)

So what's going on with turnout? According to the latest numbers (at 10PM) it's down to 55%, from 63% in 2008. At 7PM it was only down 3 points... How comes it dropped so massively in only 3 hours? ???


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 24, 2013, 04:52:38 PM
Hi guys! :)

So what's going on with turnout? According to the latest numbers (at 10PM) it's down to 55%, from 63% in 2008. At 7PM it was only down 3 points... How comes it dropped so massively in only 3 hours? ???


Here (Milan) it's snowing. After 7 PM you probably still got people coming home from shopping centers, returing from the evening mass and stopping at polling stations...but I guess no-one went out just to vote after the dinner.

My 75% prediction is obviously wrong.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - RESULTS MODE
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 04:53:59 PM
For the record, Milan and Inter tied 1-1. :P

Without people flipping the hell out, could that be a big reason why turnout in Lombardy is so low? The derby is a pretty big day long event so I'd imagine the numbers will go up tomorrow quite a bit compared to the rest of the country.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 24, 2013, 05:16:15 PM
My 75% prediction is obviously wrong.

You think it will be higher or lower than that?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 05:20:03 PM
My 75% prediction is obviously wrong.

You think it will be higher or lower than that?

If the 10 PM update is down right points from 2008, I think his point is that it will obviously be lower.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - RESULTS MODE
Post by: Hash on February 24, 2013, 05:20:32 PM
A new results thread would be a fine idea, given how long this one has gotten already.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 24, 2013, 05:27:34 PM
My 75% prediction is obviously wrong.

You think it will be higher or lower than that?

If the 10 PM update is down right points from 2008, I think his point is that it will obviously be lower.

But the drop happened so suddenly from 7 to 10. I wonder what that could mean...



A new results thread would be a fine idea, given how long this one has gotten already.

Yeah, you're right. I'll do one in a couple hours.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - RESULTS MODE
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 24, 2013, 05:30:14 PM
At what time do polls close tomorrow?

My prediction:

IBC 34.5%
Berlusconi 27%
M5S 22.5%
Monti 9%
Ingroia 5%
Others 2%

Turnout 72%



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - RESULTS MODE
Post by: SPQR on February 24, 2013, 05:31:40 PM
Checked out some of the polls myself. Italy does not really seem to have invented socio-economic background analysis - its all horse-race top numbers.

Nevertheless, as the Senate minimum voting age is 25, it might be possible to infere on the 18-25 vote by comparing Camera and Senate polling (assuming the pollsters are filtering out non-eligible respondents for their Senate results).

The table below lists the Camera minus Senate differences per coalition for the Feb. 8 Ipsos poll (the only one I have found so far that covers both chambers nationally):

Bersani              -0.7          
Berlusconi          -0.6        
Grillo                 +0.4            
Monti                 +1.3            
Ingroia              +0.1  
others                -0,5        

This indicates that both Bersani and Berlusconi are having problems with the youth vote, which is instead being absorbed by Grillo and, surprisingly, Monti.


It's not just that.
There are quite a few people who vote for Ingroia in the Camera and vote for Bersani in the Senate,especially in battleground regions.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - RESULTS MODE
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 24, 2013, 05:32:18 PM
If a new results thread isn't created by someone (when such a thread is needed) then I'll split this one: this is a pretty basic convenience issue.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - RESULTS MODE
Post by: Andrea on February 24, 2013, 05:35:20 PM
They close at 3PM Italian time

@Antonio

I think it will lower at this point...unless they all go to vote before going to work tomorrow. But with current umemployment rate, some may prefer to stay in bed.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - RESULTS MODE
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 05:37:20 PM
If a new results thread isn't created by someone (when such a thread is needed) then I'll split this one: this is a pretty basic convenience issue.

Antonio said he will start one later tonight. I think this should be kept open until early tomorrow. We can still have some general discussion here.

As for Julio's question, polls close at 3 PM (Italian time) with an exit poll released once the polls close.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - RESULTS MODE
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 24, 2013, 05:46:29 PM
Thanks, Andrea and Phil.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - RESULTS MODE
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 24, 2013, 05:47:54 PM
Is it OK if I open the results thread at 8PM Western (ie, 11PM Eastern and 5AM European)? I'll try to go sleep early so that I can wake up early for tomorrow's results.

I can keep this thread open until I wake up tomorrow, so that you guys can still post here until polls close in Italy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 24, 2013, 05:51:04 PM
My 75% prediction is obviously wrong.

You think it will be higher or lower than that?

If the 10 PM update is down right points from 2008, I think his point is that it will obviously be lower.

But the drop happened so suddenly from 7 to 10. I wonder what that could mean...



A new results thread would be a fine idea, given how long this one has gotten already.

Yeah, you're right. I'll do one in a couple hours.

I think than Phil explanation is right. There was football tonight and some people listened to it instead of going voting.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 24, 2013, 06:36:13 PM
Leaked exits apparently say Bersani by 5, Monti underperforming.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 06:37:45 PM
Leaked exits apparently say Bersani by 5, Monti underperforming.

Underperforming when he was already expected to get 10-15%? Oh my.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: MaxQue on February 24, 2013, 06:43:50 PM
Leaked exits apparently say Bersani by 5, Monti underperforming.

Underperforming when he was already expected to get 10-15%? Oh my.

Maybe the poster who predicted 9.7% wasn't that far of the real answer. Well, for sure, those exits will be off, since voting isn't finished yet.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 24, 2013, 06:44:46 PM
Monti: Towards the lower end of that, 11% or so.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 24, 2013, 06:55:30 PM
Poor Monti. He deserves to the be the face of the Italian center-right, not a washed-up perverted old huckster like Berlusconi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 24, 2013, 06:59:54 PM
It's his fault. He had his chance, he cocked it up.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 24, 2013, 07:03:29 PM
He's not a politician. I dunno what a post-SB PDL will look like given that it's more personality cult than ideologically-based political party. An ICB/Monti Senate coalition might push Bersani a bit farther on the economic front, since his own track record is decidedly mixed.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 24, 2013, 07:17:42 PM
Bersani by 5 is a bit worrisome (especially for Senate). Do we have any idea about the voting patterns of people who go vote on Mondays?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2013, 08:14:19 PM
Bersani by 5 is a bit worrisome (especially for Senate). Do we have any idea about the voting patterns of people who go vote on Mondays?

I know I'll be attacked for sounding like I broken record but Milan will be up not because they're normally second day voters but because of today's circumstances.

I'm looking at the major population centers and a few things stand out:

Turnout in Naples is way down (ten points). Berlusconi easily won the city in 2008 but the situation was very different. Since then (aside from the regional election), PdL has struggled in Campania. I'm under the impression that lower turnout in the city proper will help but news isn't much better in the countryside, where turnout is down about eight points.

Rome's turnout is slightly down but the countryside is drastically down. That's bad for Berlusconi. Really no other way to slice it.

On the flip side, Tuscany's numbers are surprisingly bad. Emilia-Romagna was close to matching their 2008 numbers at the 19:00 update. Now, it's down by five. Puglia is at 47.66% compared to 56.11% in 2008. Basilicata is at 47.08%/56.55% in 2008.

This could end up being very interesting.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: SPQR on February 25, 2013, 02:25:24 AM
He's not a politician. I dunno what a post-SB PDL will look like given that it's more personality cult than ideologically-based political party. An ICB/Monti Senate coalition might push Bersani a bit farther on the economic front, since his own track record is decidedly mixed.
There is no such thing as a post-SB PDL.

Just remember that,when Berlusconi had semi-retired and Alfano seemed to have become the new leader,PDL was closer to 10% than 20%.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: Franknburger on February 25, 2013, 06:59:00 AM
O.k., here is my projection. Uninformed as I am, I may as well get bold. First my assumptions:

Turnout will be lower than last, time, but not that low. I expect it at 75.5%. Reduced turnout will primarily affect younger to middle age low-info voters, and as such hurt mostly Berlusconi, but also the other 'traditional' candidates (Monti, Bersani). Cell-phone only has been under-polled (as everywhere), meaning that candidates / lists with appeal to young urban voters wil overperform relatively to the polling.
The low-info female demography (female equivalent to 'blue-collar Joe Siy-pack, let's call them white coat workers, or Gianna Piccolo) will make up much of the 'undecideds'. They primarily vote on personality, and have traditionally been attracted by Berlusconi, but his sex scandals have hurt his standing with them, which is among the reasons for lower turnout. Bersani and Monti have no appeal to them, while Grillo, Ingroya and Vendola may have some.

Now my prediction (average of last polls in brackets, makes is easier for me to calculate swings):

PD (29.8 ):                    29.1
SEL (3.9)                        4.7
other Bersani (0.7)          0.6
Bersani (34.4)             34.4

PDL (20.3)                      20.2
Lega (5.1)                        4.7
Other Berlusconi (4.0)       3.9
Berlusconi (29.4)         29.0

Grillo (15.3)                    16.2

Monti (9.5)                       8.7
UDC (3.1)                        3.0  
FLI   (0.9)                        0.7
Centro (13.5)               12.4            

Ingroya (4.2)                    4.4

Regional (incl SVP)            0.6

Others                              3.0  


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: minionofmidas on February 25, 2013, 07:21:14 AM
Poor Monti. He deserves to the be the face of the Italian center-right, not a washed-up perverted old huckster like Berlusconi.
I couldn't disagree more. Being a washed-up old huckster like Berlusconi is exactly what Monti deserves.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 25, 2013, 08:23:47 AM
Grillo, being a real attention whore, decided to wait until today to vote so all of the coverage seems to be about him in the final hours.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: Obamanation on February 25, 2013, 08:24:40 AM
Grillo, being a real attention whore, decided to wait until today to vote so all of the coverage seems to be about him in the final hours.

Well, he ain't stupid then...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 25, 2013, 08:58:47 AM
It's been fun around here! Ciao.  ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: Tender Branson on February 25, 2013, 08:59:12 AM
Yes. Time to lock it.

;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 05, 2013, 05:04:00 PM
Complain about the victory of trolls and clowns here; discuss results (as results) in 'tuther thread.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 05, 2013, 05:30:02 PM
Thanks!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2013, 05:37:29 PM
:)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on March 05, 2013, 05:50:06 PM
Poor Monti. He deserves to the be the face of the Italian center-right, not a washed-up perverted old huckster like Berlusconi.
I couldn't disagree more. Being a washed-up old huckster like Berlusconi is exactly what Monti deserves.

One could argue that being the face of the Italian center-right at least halfway accomplishes that in and of itself.

Keep in mind that the face that the Italian center-right deserves to have right now is Berlusconi or someone like him.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread - Turnout estimates and late predictions mode
Post by: Leftbehind on March 05, 2013, 06:48:09 PM
Complain about the victory of trolls and clowns here

:D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 05, 2013, 09:41:58 PM
BTW, I don't know if this has been mentioned, but the day after the election, Berlusconi was indicted in yet another case. A former IdV senator claims that back in 2006 he was bribed by Berlusconi (something like €3 millions) to switch sides and bring down the Prodi government, which only had a 2-seat majority in the Senate. Apparently other Senators were part of the conspiracy which Berlusconi nicknamed "operazione libertà".


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 05, 2013, 09:43:57 PM
Already discussed at length, though we didn't hear about the other senators.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 05, 2013, 09:47:58 PM
Well, anyway, this is something to watch, along with other trials which will reach sentences very soon. I'd be interested to see if there's a chance we can come up with a definitive sentence before the statute of limitation pops up.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 06, 2013, 08:47:53 AM
We discussed it in the other thread along with the accusation from 2006 when the then-Senator (and soon returning) for North and Central America claimed Berlusconi approached him about switching from PD to PdL. Not sure that it ever went any further than an accusation though.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 06, 2013, 06:46:33 PM
Today Bersani's line was unanimously approved by the PD direction. Officially only though, behind the scenes many are groaning.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 07, 2013, 08:38:57 AM
Silvio sentenced to a year behind bars?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 07, 2013, 08:46:16 AM
It'll get tied up in appeals like everything else.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on March 07, 2013, 10:17:32 AM
I think even if Bersani convinces M5S to allow him to work with him, they will prove very difficult to work with in the long run.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 07, 2013, 04:02:33 PM
Renzi: We're hitting the trail again very shortly. Said another primary was inevitable but didn't say whether he'd run or not. Yeah, Bersani's leadership countdown has definitely begun.

http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=199254


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 07, 2013, 04:11:25 PM
:D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 07, 2013, 09:04:22 PM
Renzi: We're hitting the trail again very shortly.

Hopefully... If an alliance with M5S can't be worked out, we absolutely need new elections.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 07, 2013, 09:13:46 PM
Greece, all over again.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 08, 2013, 09:26:06 AM
The Renzi push continues. Dunno why Bersani got such a resounding endorsement at leadership review given how epically failed his campaign was.

http://fr.reuters.com/article/frEuroRpt/idFRL6N0C08VJ20130308?sp=true



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 08, 2013, 01:38:19 PM
The Renzi push continues. Dunno why Bersani got such a resounding endorsement at leadership review given how epically failed his campaign was.

http://fr.reuters.com/article/frEuroRpt/idFRL6N0C08VJ20130308?sp=true

People are ready to give him a shot at forming the government, since it's almost certain he will fail.

The question is, what happens after? This is when power struggles between the old guard and Renzi supporters.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 08, 2013, 01:43:49 PM
My question is what happens during the limbo between Bersani's failure and the presidential vote. Does Monti stay in office, another technocrat appointed for a few weeks? Then the new president dissolves parliament. Another question: if there were to be a PD leadership switch, when and how would that happen?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 08, 2013, 01:56:17 PM
My question is what happens during the limbo between Bersani's failure and the presidential vote. Does Monti stay in office, another technocrat appointed for a few weeks? Then the new president dissolves parliament. Another question: if there were to be a PD leadership switch, when and how would that happen?

Monti would stay in office as long as no other PM wins a confidence vote. So yeah, he could stay on as a caretaker for months if new elections end up being held.

As for the PD, I don't know their bylaws well enough to say, but I guess they should do new primaries.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 08, 2013, 01:57:18 PM
If I had to guess (emphasis on "guess"), I'd say Monti stays around if he's legally able to. What's the point of another technocratic government that would be around for such a short period of time?

As you know, Renzi said he expects another leadership primary so I guess the only questions are around logistics and who, if anyone serious, would challenge Renzi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 08, 2013, 02:07:39 PM
There would be a left challenge to Renzi. Either Bersani or another man... Stefano [last name]. A primary would have to be held pre-election, pushing dissolution back a bit.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on March 08, 2013, 02:11:18 PM
Renzi winning PD leadership from this would really be the cherry on a horrible cake for the Italian Left.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 08, 2013, 02:13:09 PM
There would be a left challenge to Renzi. Either Bersani or another man... Stefano [last name]. A primary would have to be held pre-election, pushing dissolution back a bit.

New elections can't happen before June anyway (and likely won't until September), so there will be plenty of time for the primary.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 08, 2013, 02:13:36 PM
Renzi winning PD leadership from this would really be the cherry on a horrible cake for the Italian Left.

Because Bersani was such a bold left-wing hero... ::)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on March 08, 2013, 02:16:46 PM
Renzi winning PD leadership from this would really be the cherry on a horrible cake for the Italian Left.

Because Bersani was such a bold left-wing hero... ::)

Neither was John Smith, but he was infinitely better than Blair, for instance. Didn't realise you were a Renzi supporter(!). 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 08, 2013, 02:19:26 PM
Renzi winning PD leadership from this would really be the cherry on a horrible cake for the Italian Left.

Because Bersani was such a bold left-wing hero... ::)

Neither was John Smith, but he was infinitely better than Blair, for instance. Didn't realise you were a Renzi supporter(!). 

There is not an ounce of actual ideological difference between Bersani and Renzi. The only difference is that one is a stale and boring old party stalwart with no grasp on modern politics while the other could actually run a half-decent campaign and then do something once in power.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 08, 2013, 02:23:10 PM
Syrup-tongued saviours tend not to keep very well once the bottle is opened.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 08, 2013, 02:23:42 PM
Of course 'tuther guy is just a hack. A hacks hack, perhaps. But that isn't always worse, as such.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on March 08, 2013, 02:28:44 PM
Syrup-tongued saviours tend not to keep very well once the bottle is opened.

That's my fear. Besides, if Renzi is all that, once leader he'll be much harder for an actual left-leaning candidate to replace than a member of the ambition-less old-guard.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 08, 2013, 02:48:42 PM
Antonio and other Italians can correct me if I'm wrong, but my read is that while Renzi puts more of an emphasis on centre than left in centre-left than Bersani, we're talking within or barely outside the MOE. Both men agree on broadbrush issues. Bersani tried labour market reform as a minister, with mixed success and probably with mixed enthusiasm as well. Difference is political skill as Antonio said. The sort of policymaking required needs to be sold and not imposed, Monti proves that beyond a shadow of a doubt. Bersani is clueless about both political and policy marketing.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 08, 2013, 04:05:39 PM
Antonio and other Italians can correct me if I'm wrong, but my read is that while Renzi puts more of an emphasis on centre than left in centre-left than Bersani, we're talking within or barely outside the MOE. Both men agree on broadbrush issues. Bersani tried labour market reform as a minister, with mixed success and probably with mixed enthusiasm as well. Difference is political skill as Antonio said. The sort of policymaking required needs to be sold and not imposed, Monti proves that beyond a shadow of a doubt. Bersani is clueless about both political and policy marketing.

Indeed. The PD has long fallen into complete 3rd Way dominance, "ex-Communists" and "ex-Demochristians" alike. Actually, "third way" is a pretty nice way to put it. They're basically mainstream liberals in the ALDE sense. Bersani is a market liberal, Renzi is a market liberal, D'Alema is a market liberal, Bindi is a market liberal, Letta is a market liberal... really everybody besides a few "dangerous extremists" like Fassina are market liberals.

Considering this... charisma does matter. A big deal. And so does youth, and so does the apparent willingness to make some serious changes (which Bersani hasn't displayed during the campaign).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Hash on March 08, 2013, 04:50:15 PM
The PD come really close to the US Democrats, probably the closest any other party can come (maybe the ALP as well).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 08, 2013, 05:34:48 PM
The PD come really close to the US Democrats, probably the closest any other party can come (maybe the ALP as well).

Yeah, the party's name certainly isn't casual.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 08, 2013, 06:44:26 PM
There would be a left challenge to Renzi. Either Bersani or another man... Stefano [last name]. A primary would have to be held pre-election, pushing dissolution back a bit.

Who is this Stefano?

Also, would Vendola run again? How about Franceschini?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 08, 2013, 06:54:51 PM
There would be a left challenge to Renzi. Either Bersani or another man... Stefano [last name]. A primary would have to be held pre-election, pushing dissolution back a bit.

Who is this Stefano?

Fassina, I assume. Probably one of the few in the PD who isn't a complete ideological sellout (at least I infer this from the fact Monti kept singling him out during the campaign).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 08, 2013, 08:27:07 PM
Yeah, Fassina's the guy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Kitteh on March 08, 2013, 08:46:09 PM
Looking at his wiki page, it seems Fassina was an economist at the IMF. If that's what's considered "leftist" within the context of the PD...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 09, 2013, 03:19:40 PM
Epic things are happening right now.

So, Berlusconi was hospitalized a couple days ago for an eye infection. This allowed him to avoid attending several of his trials (thus preventing them from going on, while the statute of limitation is still ticking). A judge today requested - and obtained - that a tax inspection be sent to the hospital to certify that Berlusconi could effectively not attend the trial. Don't ask me how it is possible for tax services to do that... but anyway, they came in, visited Berlusconi, and certified that he was actually capable of attending. PdLers are outraged and calling the judges nazis and stalinists.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 09, 2013, 03:26:25 PM
Renzi is now openly calling for a prelex primary if Bersani can't form a government. How to trigger one is the question.

http://www.corriere.it/politica/13_marzo_09/renzi-intervento-che-tempo-che-fa_8f6ebc7c-88e3-11e2-b463-ff37879da0fc.shtml


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on March 09, 2013, 04:31:12 PM
Epic things are happening right now.

So, Berlusconi was hospitalized a couple days ago for an eye infection. This allowed him to avoid attending several of his trials (thus preventing them from going on, while the statute of limitation is still ticking). A judge today requested - and obtained - that a tax inspection be sent to the hospital to certify that Berlusconi could effectively not attend the trial. Don't ask me how it is possible for tax services to do that... but anyway, they came in, visited Berlusconi, and certified that he was actually capable of attending. PdLers are outraged and calling the judges nazis and stalinists.

Well, I guess tax inspectors are the only ones that have a right to look at the medical records (to check whether they correspond to the billing), which are otherwise strictly confidential. While I would not call the judges stalinists, their approach is definitely on the border of legality (at least according to German standards).   


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 09, 2013, 04:36:01 PM
Epic things are happening right now.

So, Berlusconi was hospitalized a couple days ago for an eye infection. This allowed him to avoid attending several of his trials (thus preventing them from going on, while the statute of limitation is still ticking). A judge today requested - and obtained - that a tax inspection be sent to the hospital to certify that Berlusconi could effectively not attend the trial. Don't ask me how it is possible for tax services to do that... but anyway, they came in, visited Berlusconi, and certified that he was actually capable of attending. PdLers are outraged and calling the judges nazis and stalinists.

Well, I guess tax inspectors are the only ones that have a right to look at the medical records (to check whether they correspond to the billing), which are otherwise strictly confidential. While I would not call the judges stalinists, their approach is definitely on the border of legality (at least according to German standards).   

Yeah, that's unorthodox to say least. However, I can easily understand that judges are fed up of Berlusconi's dirty tricks and so would be ready to counterattack with their own legal tricks.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 09, 2013, 04:37:19 PM
Renzi is now openly calling for a prelex primary if Bersani can't form a government. How to trigger one is the question.

http://www.corriere.it/politica/13_marzo_09/renzi-intervento-che-tempo-che-fa_8f6ebc7c-88e3-11e2-b463-ff37879da0fc.shtml

Renzi is 1000% right. He's right that if Bersani fails we need new elections, and he's obviously right that we need PD primaries.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 09, 2013, 05:39:09 PM
Renzi gets the Murdoch endorsement, not that he should be publicizing it.

http://www.formiche.net/2013/03/09/renzi-murdoch-endorsement/



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 09, 2013, 05:42:19 PM
First impressions on Renzi: douchey.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 10, 2013, 07:50:26 AM
Renzi gets the Murdoch endorsement, not that he should be publicizing it.

http://www.formiche.net/2013/03/09/renzi-murdoch-endorsement/



I'm sure he endorsed Bersani, too, for obvious reasons. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 10, 2013, 01:32:48 PM
Renzi gets the Murdoch endorsement, not that he should be publicizing it.

http://www.formiche.net/2013/03/09/renzi-murdoch-endorsement/



I'm sure he endorsed Bersani, too, for obvious reasons. :P

Eliminating competition? :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 10, 2013, 01:34:22 PM
When do the formal talks start? Next week? Seen a bunch of different dates.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 10, 2013, 01:41:26 PM
When do the formal talks start? Next week? Seen a bunch of different dates.

March 15 is the day the Parliament convenes. They'll first have to elect their presiding officers, and then government formation talks should begin.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 10, 2013, 01:50:01 PM
Renzi hits leadership for being idealess, Fassina accuses him of being disloyal to the party and basically immature. Long past time for the old hacks to step aside, unless they want Grillo to win outright soon enough.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/10/us-italy-vote-left-idUSBRE9290DR20130310


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 10, 2013, 01:52:22 PM
Renzi hits leadership for being idealess, Fassina accuses him of being disloyal to the party and basically immature. Long past time for the old hacks to step aside, unless they want Grillo to win outright soon enough.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/10/us-italy-vote-left-idUSBRE9290DR20130310

Why is he saying that now? He should wait for Bersani to try his alliance with the grillists, and after this (sadly) fails, call for new elections.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 10, 2013, 01:54:50 PM
He knows it will fail. Leadership knows too, else they wouldn't be hitting him. Fassina would be his biggest primary competition if Bersani didn't run.  Seems to me that both men are prepositioning for primary purposes.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 10, 2013, 02:00:53 PM
He knows it will fail. Leadership knows too, else they wouldn't be hitting him. Fassina would be his biggest primary competition if Bersani didn't run.  Seems to me that both men are prepositioning for primary purposes.

Yeah, but it would make sense for him to maintain façade unity and show his loyalty to Bersani, so that he wouldn't be accused later of being a traitor.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 10, 2013, 02:35:39 PM
Grillo said he'd quit politics if his senators gave confidence to a political government. C'est fini.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 10, 2013, 07:29:59 PM
Renzi wants a snap election after a new electoral law is devised.

http://www.diarioprogresista.es/renzi-urge-a-bersani-a-que-convoque-elecciones-en-italia-25584.htm


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 11, 2013, 12:30:56 PM
Grillo said he'd quit politics if his senators gave confidence to a political government. C'est fini.

Wow. So tempting to jump on the bandwagon now...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 11, 2013, 02:11:02 PM
Renzi talked again about the need for abolition of public financing. Hear hear. Also wants the parties to post their expenses online. OpenSecrets, Italian Edition.

http://video.repubblica.it/edizione/firenze/renzi-nessun-dossier-la-trasparenza-nelle-spese-dei-partiti/122022/120509



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 11, 2013, 02:32:15 PM
Abolition of public financing is a stupid idea. Cut them, massively, but don't get rid of them outright.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 11, 2013, 02:39:42 PM
We'll have phased our federal one out by 2015, no real backlash. It forces the parties to go grassroots or out of business. If done over a few years to give everyone time for adjustment... but I suspect we'll agree to disagree here. :P



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Benj on March 11, 2013, 02:58:53 PM
We'll have phased our federal one out by 2015, no real backlash. It forces the parties to go grassroots or out of business. If done over a few years to give everyone time for adjustment... but I suspect we'll agree to disagree here. :P

Fundraising is hardly a grassroots operation unless your individual donation caps are extremely low. It just makes parties more dependent on the wealthy donors who will donate the full permitted amount. Regardless of your political views, surely you can't believe that the wealthy don't have enough representation in any country's political system.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 11, 2013, 03:02:12 PM
We'll have phased our federal one out by 2015, no real backlash. It forces the parties to go grassroots or out of business. If done over a few years to give everyone time for adjustment... but I suspect we'll agree to disagree here. :P

Grassroots financing is rarely sufficient for parties to remain afloat financially... In France, when public financing was introduced in the 1990s it was as a way to fight against corruption, because parties sought through illegal means the money they lacked. Everyone did that, left and right.

Obviously, Italy has the reverse problem right now, meaning that parties get more (waaaaaaaaay more) than what they actually need so that the excess goes to fill the pockets of a few bigwigs. But let's not throw the baby with bathwater.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 11, 2013, 03:03:23 PM
There's a certain sort of mindless populist 'solution' that people who should know better are quite happy to support without giving said 'solution' so much as a second glance.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 11, 2013, 03:35:01 PM
The PD and M5S negotiators sit down tomorrow, but no one seems overly confident. M5S leaders repeating that anyone who votes confidence gets booted from caucus.

http://www.campanianotizie.com/politica/italia/54821-pd-eletti-con-bersani-ma-cresce-fronte-scettici.html

M5S still not Renzi fans.

http://www.gonews.it/articolo_185550_Bonafede-M5S-Il-ritorno-di-Renzi-aumenta-il-caos.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 11, 2013, 03:38:29 PM
May seem like a strange question but has there been any polling since the election? I want to see if M5S really benefits from this.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Hash on March 11, 2013, 03:39:09 PM
We'll have phased our federal one out by 2015, no real backlash. It forces the parties to go grassroots or out of business. If done over a few years to give everyone time for adjustment... but I suspect we'll agree to disagree here. :P

No real backlash perhaps, but it was also a horrible idea.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 11, 2013, 04:04:19 PM
Phil: Only a Renzi trial matchup last week that showed him boosting PD to a 35-28-26 lead with Berlusconi in 3rd. Also PPM with 28% to 14% for Bersani, 13% Grillo, 10% Berlusconi.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/08/us-italy-vote-renzi-idUSBRE92706V20130308


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Hash on March 11, 2013, 04:21:50 PM
No, there have been a bunch of other polls:

SWG, March 8: Left 28.1%, M5S 27%, Right 26.2%, Centre 10.4%

Ispo, March 7: Left 29.8%, M5S 28.7%, Right 27.4%, Centre 9.8%

Piepoli, March 6: Left 29.5%, Right 29.5%, M5S 26.5%, Centre 9%

Ipsos, March 5: Left 29.6%, M5S 29.4%, Right 29.2%, Centre 10%

Lorien, March 3: Left 31.9%, Right 31%, M5S 28.5%, Centre 5.6%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 11, 2013, 05:01:01 PM
So no statistically significant change, which doesn't surprise me.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on March 11, 2013, 06:08:43 PM
I wanted to support Renzi, but I can't. He's such a populist. Bersani, again, gets my support. Ugh.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 11, 2013, 06:20:51 PM
Fight populism with populism. He knows how to operate in this environment, they don't. Compared to bribing people with their own tax dollars, perhaps paid from the leader's own pocket, in one case and 20 hour workweeks in the other, this is about a 3 on the Populimeter.

Speaking of which, SWG Tweeted a poll saying 82% of voters support an end to public financing.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 11, 2013, 06:22:22 PM
Fight populism with populism. He knows how to operate in this environment, they don't. Compared to bribing people with their own tax dollars, perhaps paid from the leader's own pocket, in one case and 20 hour workweeks in the other, this is about a 3 on the Populimeter.

Indeed. Renzi is far from being my ideal politician, but he's the best we can get out of Italy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 11, 2013, 06:34:01 PM
If Renzi's what it takes to fix this...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 11, 2013, 08:33:55 PM
No, there have been a bunch of other polls:

SWG, March 8: Left 28.1%, M5S 27%, Right 26.2%, Centre 10.4%

Ispo, March 7: Left 29.8%, M5S 28.7%, Right 27.4%, Centre 9.8%

Piepoli, March 6: Left 29.5%, Right 29.5%, M5S 26.5%, Centre 9%

Ipsos, March 5: Left 29.6%, M5S 29.4%, Right 29.2%, Centre 10%

Lorien, March 3: Left 31.9%, Right 31%, M5S 28.5%, Centre 5.6%

Wow. With those numbers, I'd say the center-right would win. Or maybe even M5S as the top party. The center-left over polls and with the race already this close...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 11, 2013, 08:45:13 PM
I'd say it would like Greece's 2nd round last June. Close but no cigar. Even if Berlusconi or Grillo won the Camera they wouldn't have a Senate majority. That said I certainly don't want Bersani leading PD into the next election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 13, 2013, 11:01:58 AM
Renzi: I'm ready to be a primary and PM candidate. So he's announced his candidacy for a race that hasn't formally opened yet. Bersani's probably hitting the roof. :P

http://espresso.repubblica.it/dettaglio/renzi-io-sono-pronto/2202395


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on March 14, 2013, 09:49:50 AM
Tomorrow the 2 Chambers will sit for the first time.

The Senate sitting will be presided by 93 year old Emilio Colombo. I guess they may be slower than the Conclave in electing their Speaker.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2013, 10:17:43 AM
No, there have been a bunch of other polls:

SWG, March 8: Left 28.1%, M5S 27%, Right 26.2%, Centre 10.4%

Ispo, March 7: Left 29.8%, M5S 28.7%, Right 27.4%, Centre 9.8%

Piepoli, March 6: Left 29.5%, Right 29.5%, M5S 26.5%, Centre 9%

Ipsos, March 5: Left 29.6%, M5S 29.4%, Right 29.2%, Centre 10%

Lorien, March 3: Left 31.9%, Right 31%, M5S 28.5%, Centre 5.6%

I feel really sorry for the Italians.

60% for the troll/clown 1.0 and the troll/clown 2.0 and another 30% for an inept Left.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 14, 2013, 01:25:26 PM
The speakers won't be elected till Monday earliest since M5S is not supporting the PD nominees. 2/3 for the first 5 ballots, simple majority after. So that means PDL will have to vote for the PD nominee if they want this over with quickly.

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/38537/M5S-says-no-Speakers-deal--Bersani-still-open-to-talks.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 15, 2013, 04:34:27 PM
Today was the first day of the new Parliament. In the speaker elections for both houses, M5S voted for their candidates and everybody else abstained. Still no idea where we're going.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 15, 2013, 05:18:20 PM
Today was the first day of the new Parliament. In the speaker elections for both houses, M5S voted for their candidates and everybody else abstained. Still no idea where we're going.

So...how exactly does this "work?" Without leaders in each chamber, how is there even a government?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 15, 2013, 05:19:06 PM
Today was the first day of the new Parliament. In the speaker elections for both houses, M5S voted for their candidates and everybody else abstained. Still no idea where we're going.

So...how exactly does this "work?" Without leaders in each chamber, how is there even a government?

There won't be. They'll keep voting on it until there we get Presidents.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 15, 2013, 05:24:54 PM
Today was the first day of the new Parliament. In the speaker elections for both houses, M5S voted for their candidates and everybody else abstained. Still no idea where we're going.

So...how exactly does this "work?" Without leaders in each chamber, how is there even a government?

There won't be. They'll keep voting on it until there we get Presidents.

...except everyone else decided to abstain and it was the first damn vote. Or was that just done to symbolically say, "We hate this situation" and then get serious during the second vote?

How long do you think until they say nothing can be established and Napolitano appoints another technocratic government?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 15, 2013, 05:26:21 PM
It was obviously a symbolic gesture. Do you think all the parties are going to keep abstaining at every ballot? That's silly. They already have started negotiating behind the scenes.

Obviously, nothing guarantees that negotiations will succeed.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 15, 2013, 05:34:07 PM
It was obviously a symbolic gesture. Do you think all the parties are going to keep abstaining at every ballot? That's silly. They already have started negotiating behind the scenes.

Obviously, nothing guarantees that negotiations will succeed.

Hey, they're negotiating so I thought a symbolic gesture like that on the very first ballot by both parties might not be necessary. Not that a solution was expected already but I expected each side to at least cast some votes for their preferred leaders.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 15, 2013, 05:47:26 PM
It was obviously a symbolic gesture. Do you think all the parties are going to keep abstaining at every ballot? That's silly. They already have started negotiating behind the scenes.

Obviously, nothing guarantees that negotiations will succeed.

Hey, they're negotiating so I thought a symbolic gesture like that on the very first ballot by both parties might not be necessary. Not that a solution was expected already but I expected each side to at least cast some votes for their preferred leaders.

What was the point though? If each party voted for their candidate in the Senate, the result would have been exactly the same. In the House, it would actually have been counterproductive, since it would have led to the election of a PD guy and thus deprive the PD of a strong bargaining position.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 15, 2013, 06:37:00 PM
Reports on Twitter that PD is negotiating with Monti and Lega. Given Berlusconi's recent declarations, one wonders if he at least yellow-lighted this approach to his junior partner.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 15, 2013, 09:06:51 PM
Reports on Twitter that PD is negotiating with Monti and Lega. Given Berlusconi's recent declarations, one wonders if he at least yellow-lighted this approach to his junior partner.

...and Lega? What? Talk about desperation. And how does PD justify that?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 15, 2013, 09:13:04 PM
We need new elections. As soon as possible.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 15, 2013, 10:44:17 PM
Phil: "We need speakers to start the symbolic government formation negotiations, after which we will elect Amato President and dissolve Parliament." Also some speculation that Bersani will want immediate dissolution to avoid a primary, though a) probably not happening b) wouldn't get away with it.

Antonio: No dissent here.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on March 16, 2013, 02:54:43 AM
Today we will get presidents for both Chambers,one way or another.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 16, 2013, 07:59:59 AM
PD candidate Laura Boldrini has been elected Camera Speaker. Now for the Senate.

Napolitano has asked Monti to stay till the process is complete, as we predicted. Over Monti's objections- he wanted to be Senate Speaker.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/16/us-italy-vote-idUSBRE92F06Y20130316


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on March 16, 2013, 08:14:26 AM
Run-off in the Senate between PD's Grasso and PdL's Schifani.

Grasso was the chief  "Anti-Mafia" attorney,while Schifani has been under process for links with mafia.



Not all parties are equal...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on March 16, 2013, 12:57:01 PM
Grasso is the new Senate Speaker.

137-117 vs Schifani,around 50 blank votes.
A few members of M5S voted for Grasso,in particular the Sicilian ones,who said "if Schifani wins,we can't go back home".


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 16, 2013, 12:58:38 PM
So now formal talks can begin on Wednesday.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RodPresident on March 16, 2013, 01:30:37 PM
How would be an election with Renzi, Grillo and Meloni as standard bearers of their coalitions?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 16, 2013, 01:34:51 PM
Who's Meloni? The last trial heat had Renzi boosting PD to a 7-point lead over M5S with PDL in third.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RodPresident on March 16, 2013, 01:49:37 PM
Who's Meloni? The last trial heat had Renzi boosting PD to a 7-point lead over M5S with PDL in third.
Giorgia Meloni, one of FdI leaders. She wouldn't have Berlusconi's rejection and could bring some populist voters.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on March 16, 2013, 02:08:08 PM
Who's Meloni? The last trial heat had Renzi boosting PD to a 7-point lead over M5S with PDL in third.
Giorgia Meloni, one of FdI leaders. She wouldn't have Berlusconi's rejection and could bring some populist voters.
She would lose most of the populist voters,actually.
People who are somehow close to PdL,already vote PdL.

At the same time,without Berlusconi,PdL would lose plenty of those populist voters.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 16, 2013, 02:12:05 PM
PdL's support nearly halves without Berlusconi, as we saw in summer polls. Which is what happens when you remove the personality from its cult.

Speaking of polls, new SWG has M5S 30%, PdL 29%, PD 27%, Monti 9.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2013, 02:43:27 PM
PdL's support nearly halves without Berlusconi, as we saw in summer polls. Which is what happens when you remove the personality from its cult.

Speaking of polls, new SWG has M5S 30%, PdL 29%, PD 27%, Monti 9.

This can't be real.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 16, 2013, 02:48:41 PM
PD dropping 2, PdL holding steady and M5S gaining 5 is basically MOE stuff, hardly unbelievable.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 16, 2013, 03:08:44 PM
PD dropping 2, PdL holding steady and M5S gaining 5 is basically MOE stuff, hardly unbelievable.

I think he was saying it more as a statement of disgust.

Love the idea of Meloni leading the center-right. :) Don't think that is likely anytime soon though.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 16, 2013, 03:16:12 PM
The Parliamentary speaker candidate for the Clown party is named Robert(o) Fico ?

LOL.

Did the Slovak PM move to Italy to run for the Clowns ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 16, 2013, 03:19:24 PM
Interesting that both chambers' presidents are from Sicily.

Who was Boldrini's main opponent in the Camera election?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2013, 03:21:36 PM
The Parliamentary speaker candidate for the Clown party is named Robert(o) Fico ?

LOL.

Did the Slovak PM move to Italy to run for the Clowns ?

Fico means fig in Italian BTW.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: mappix on March 16, 2013, 03:51:12 PM
Interesting that both chambers' presidents are from Sicily.

Who was Boldrini's main opponent in the Camera election?

Boldrini comes from Marche.
Her main opponent was Fico from M5S.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 16, 2013, 04:00:04 PM
She must be from Marche originally but she currently represents a Sicilian district (though I guess that could be like how Silvio's seat was in Molise in 2006 and 2008, I believe).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: mappix on March 16, 2013, 04:06:33 PM
She must be from Marche originally but she currently represents a Sicilian district (though I guess that could be like how Silvio's seat was in Molise in 2006 and 2008, I believe).

Yes, you are right. She was candidate in Marche, Sicilia 1 and Sicilia 2 and she opted for Sicilia 2. Berlusconi opted for Molise this year as well.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2013, 04:35:19 PM
She must be from Marche originally but she currently represents a Sicilian district (though I guess that could be like how Silvio's seat was in Molise in 2006 and 2008, I believe).

Yes, you are right. She was candidate in Marche, Sicilia 1 and Sicilia 2 and she opted for Sicilia 2. Berlusconi opted for Molise this year as well.

LOL. He must have something against the poor guy who was second on the list there.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 16, 2013, 04:44:16 PM
Any idea how long the consultations will take? Or if PD and PdL have agreed on a consensus presidential candidate?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2013, 04:45:38 PM
Or if PD and PdL have agreed on a consensus presidential candidate?

I sure hope they don't. Any President agreed by the PdL would be godawful.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 16, 2013, 04:47:16 PM
Need one for a new election though. One name I've heard is Amato, which makes sense. Both sides respect him and he's presided over a party system collapse before.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2013, 04:48:43 PM
Need one for a new election though. One name I've heard is Amato, which makes sense. Both sides respect him and he's presided over a party system collapse before.

No we don't. PD+Monti have a majority in the electoral college.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 16, 2013, 04:57:38 PM
Awesome. Wonder who else might be floated.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2013, 05:04:42 PM
Awesome. Wonder who else might be floated.

I don't know... Prodi was floated around at some point, and I'd support him. He has an integrity that is rare in Italian politics. PdL hates him for obvious reasons.

I just hope Montists don't get too picky.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 16, 2013, 05:10:50 PM
Monti doesn't seem like someone who'd be an obstructionist here.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on March 16, 2013, 06:16:32 PM
There's an off the record  (I saw it on Corriere website) with Castagnetti, Bindi and Zingaretti in the middle of a street while waiting for Monti (it was for a ceremony to remember Moro's death) and talking about Speakers choices....it was recorded this morning and it seems that until last night Marianna Madia was going to be the PD candidate for Camera Speakership!

LOL! Did they seriously imagine Madia as Speaker?! Bindi is heard saying Franceschini intervened to switch to the Boldrini-Grasso duo.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2013, 06:24:52 PM
Who is Marianna Madia? Never heard before.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on March 16, 2013, 06:38:44 PM
Who is Marianna Madia? Never heard before.

A 30 something girl who was put at the top of PD list in Lazio in 2008 after being handpicked by Veltroni to show renewal (along with Pina Picierno in Campania. Picierno is closer to Franceschini). Her CV at the time included having dated Napolitano's son. So she was immediately badmouthed as a "raccomandata".


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2013, 06:48:31 PM
Who is Marianna Madia? Never heard before.

A 30 something girl who was put at the top of PD list in Lazio in 2008 after being handpicked by Veltroni to show renewal (along with Pina Picierno in Campania. Picierno is closer to Franceschini). Her CV at the time included having dated Napolitano's son. So she was immediately badmouthed as a "raccomandata".

LOL ;D I see.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 17, 2013, 01:38:44 AM
It looks like both new speakers are "outsiders" and representatives of the "civil society". They seem to be admirable people (Boldrini apparently worked in the UN against poverty and Grasso was an anti-mafia magistrate). Great move by the PD.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on March 17, 2013, 02:29:50 AM
Interesting that both chambers' presidents are from Sicily.

Who was Boldrini's main opponent in the Camera election?
She was elected in Sicily but is not from there.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on March 17, 2013, 06:18:41 AM
It looks like both new speakers are "outsiders" and representatives of the "civil society". They seem to be admirable people (Boldrini apparently worked in the UN against poverty and Grasso was an anti-mafia magistrate). Great move by the PD.

How old are they? Can this be understood as a sign of generational change ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on March 17, 2013, 07:35:25 AM
It looks like both new speakers are "outsiders" and representatives of the "civil society". They seem to be admirable people (Boldrini apparently worked in the UN against poverty and Grasso was an anti-mafia magistrate). Great move by the PD.

How old are they? Can this be understood as a sign of generational change ?
Boldrini is 51 (and pretty hot,tbh),Grasso is 68 if I am not wrong.

What's important is that they were chosen ahead of Franceschini and Finocchiaro,who were the initial proposals in case no agreement was found with M5S or Monti.

They are not very young but they are pure outsiders,both from politics and from PD (or SEL).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 18, 2013, 10:36:56 AM
I honestly thought the pictures of Silvio wearing sunglasses were photoshopped jokes. Turns out he was really ballin' out on the Senate floor.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 18, 2013, 03:39:01 PM
Renzi: Get on offense NOW, you're ceding all the initiative to Grillo. Hear, hear. Bersani's outreach is bordering on masochism right now. Were I him I'd go for a few days of pro forma consultations, return my mandate and prepare for the presidential vote. Then dissolve.

http://www.unita.it/italia/renzi-il-pd-all-attacco-funziona-1.489792


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 19, 2013, 06:46:46 PM
Monti and M5S tomorrow, PD and PdL on Thursday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/19/us-italy-vote-idUSBRE92I19U20130319


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 20, 2013, 10:54:39 AM
Along with all of this much more important drama, Renzi will be hosting the Creative Metro Economies meeting of the U.S. Conference of Mayors (of which my mayor is president). The guy is really a center of attention on more than one front these days. :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 20, 2013, 03:45:34 PM
Renzi's prepping the knife, trying to ensure that if there's a snap poll it won't happen in June.

http://www.ilfoglio.it/soloqui/17404


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 20, 2013, 05:25:51 PM
Renzi's prepping the knife, trying to ensure that if there's a snap poll it won't happen in June.

http://www.ilfoglio.it/soloqui/17404

I'd also like the September option better, actually. That would ensure I'm in France and can properly cast my ballots. :)

Also, that would give the time to modify the electoral law and go to the polls with a half-decent system.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 20, 2013, 05:35:21 PM
Agreed on the election date, but there's no sign of any formula all parties can agree on. Given how unstable things are right now they need to think of any electoral scenario which might befall them.

Also: Berlusconi said he'd bring his supporters out on the streets if a centre-left president is chosen.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 20, 2013, 06:01:00 PM
Agreed on the election date, but there's no sign of any formula all parties can agree on. Given how unstable things are right now they need to think of any electoral scenario which might befall them.

Also: Berlusconi said he'd bring his supporters out on the streets if a centre-left president is chosen.

Good for him. Hopefully nobody gives a damn.

As for the electoral system... That's not an easy job, certainly. But I want to wait and see if they can come up with something reasonable.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RodPresident on March 20, 2013, 08:01:09 PM
Dario Fo for President... with PD and M5S support!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on March 22, 2013, 07:57:53 AM
IPR Poll

Berlusconi   31%
Bersani       28.9%
Grillo           24.5%
Monti            8.8%

SWG Poll

Berlusconi   30.2%
Bersani       29.7%
Grillo           26.9%
Monti            9.5%


 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 22, 2013, 08:06:25 AM
Bersani will get a provisional mandate today.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 22, 2013, 08:19:43 AM
IPR Poll

Berlusconi   31%
Bersani       28.9%
Grillo           24.5%
Monti            8.8%

SWG Poll

Berlusconi   30.2%
Bersani       29.7%
Grillo           26.9%
Monti            9.5%


 

Hahaha.

There's some mass PdL demonstration planned for today or tomorrow.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 22, 2013, 12:42:49 PM
Can anyone say "Prime Minister-designate Bersani?" :P Probably a mouthful in Italian.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/italy-president-announce-who-will-form-new-govt


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 23, 2013, 10:48:25 AM
The Stand with Silvio rally in Piazza del Popolo is going on. Looks like they have a huge crowd.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 23, 2013, 02:39:47 PM
Best sign at the rally: "Silvio, you are bigger than Julius Caesar."


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on March 25, 2013, 05:39:10 PM
Laura Boldrini <=> Julia Gillard, anyone ?

What's with the drop in Grillo support in the last two polls posted by jaichind ? He seemed to top the race a few days before that.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: mappix on March 26, 2013, 11:00:07 AM
Foreign minister Terzi resigned after the govt.'s mismanagement of the controversy with India about two Italian marines who killed Indian fishermen (supposedly in international waters) after mistaking them for pirates. The resignation of Terzi was negatively commented by the Defense minister Di Paola. Terzi (expert of international laws) refused to send the marines back to India but the government opposed his decision. Some even asked for Monti to be tried for high treason.
End of Monti's credibility perhaps.

Meanwhile the newly appointed president of the Chamber is furious for a renowned Italian songwriter said that the Parliament is "full of sl*ts willing to do anything (to get power), they should open a brothel".



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 26, 2013, 11:04:28 AM
Why? Because he didn't think of it first?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on March 26, 2013, 11:36:33 AM
Meanwhile the newly appointed president of the Chamber is furious for a renowned Italian songwriter said that the Parliament is "full of sl*ts willing to do anything (to get power), they should open a brothel".
I didn't know Berlusconi was also a songwriter...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 26, 2013, 02:28:53 PM
Meanwhile the newly appointed president of the Chamber is furious for a renowned Italian songwriter said that the Parliament is "full of sl*ts willing to do anything (to get power), they should open a brothel".
I didn't know Berlusconi was also a songwriter...

You learn something new every day. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDwFWSweLFU)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 26, 2013, 03:38:37 PM
M5S caucus unanimously voted not to support a Bersani government in either Camera or Senate. Womp womp.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 26, 2013, 03:44:18 PM
M5S caucus unanimously voted not to support a Bersani government in either Camera or Senate. Womp womp.

Unanimously? ::)

()


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on March 26, 2013, 03:55:23 PM
Is there any chance, any remote possibility, of somehow inducing the M5S trolls to abstain?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 26, 2013, 03:59:01 PM
Abstention counts as "nay" for confidence purposes in the Senate. So no. Berlusconi is technically offering grand coalition but his "price" is Alfano as DPM and a PdL-approved President, among other things. Not that Grand should be touched with a 100-foot pole. So I'm guessing Bersani will have to return his mandate shortly and we wait for the presidential election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on March 26, 2013, 04:58:40 PM
Laura Boldrini <=> Julia Gillard, anyone ?

What's with the drop in Grillo support in the last two polls posted by jaichind ? He seemed to top the race a few days before that.

Probably the threat of markets etc spooking some PDL voters back?

I can't see any resemblance to Gillard.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on March 28, 2013, 11:25:03 AM
Day of reckoning as Bersani seeks to form Italian government

36 minutes to 6pm


Rome (DPA) -- Italian centre-left leader Pier Luigi Bersani was Thursday set to ask whether he can form a government after a weeks-long stalemate, in talks with President Giorgio Napolitano.
The outcome of the meeting, expected around 6 pm (1700 GMT), was uncertain.
Bersani won last month's elections by a whisker but failed to secure a majority in the upper house, the Senate. He has also not gained the support of other political forces.
Napolitano could allow Bersani to form a government anyway, exposing him to the risk of losing a confidence vote in parliament, or designate someone else as prime minister.
Italian media have suggested he could name a high-profile non-partisan figure to lead a a national unity government, which could pass some urgent reforms before fresh elections are held.
Bersani has refused striking a deal with conservatives led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi.
The third-largest group in parliament, protest party the Five Star Movement of comedian Beppe Grillo, does not want anything to do with the traditional political parties.
On his blog, Grillo said a new government was "not necessary."
He argued that the outgoing administration led by Mario Monti could stay on while parliament approves a new electoral law, measures to support crisis-hit businesses and other reforms.
Giuseppe Roma, the director of Italy's top research institute Censis, dismissed Grillo's suggestion as "pure folly" in comments to broadcaster SkyTG24.
The political uncertainty was rattling markets.
In morning trade, the yield spread between Italian and German 10-year bonds - a key indicator of risk in the eurozone - rose to 360 points, a six-month high, before dipping below 350 in the afternoon.
Italy has been in a recession since mid-2011 and is plagued with record youth unemployment.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that the Italian economy would shrink by 1 per cent on an annual basis in the second quarter of 2013.
On Wednesday, Bersani joked that only someone "insane" would want to be in government at this moment, while Monti said he "cannot wait" to hand over the reins to a new prime minister.
If the stalemate on the government cannot be resolved, new elections may be called.
But this cannot happen until parliament votes on a successor to Napolitano - whose term ends in May - forcing parties to strike a deal at least on this issue.
Latest opinion surveys have suggested that going back to the polls would produce a slim Berlusconi win or another hung parliament, unless the electoral law is changed.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 28, 2013, 12:26:07 PM
Who is the PdL's chosen candidate for President anyway?

As long as this nonsense drags on, isn't it likely that Silvio benefits regardless of the electoral system? I know why his detractors are opposed to the idea of a grand coalition because it essentially allows him to control when the government collapses but wouldn't that be better, in their eyes, than totally handing over the reigns after a new election? It just seems like there aren't any viable alternatives left. They tried the clown route. It didn't work. What else?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on March 28, 2013, 02:20:56 PM
Napolitano Seeks Italy Government Solution as Bersani Fails

March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Italian President Giorgio Napolitano took charge of the search for the next prime minister after Pier Luigi Bersani failed to assemble a majority in the divided parliament.
The stalemate stems from “conditions I considered unacceptable” in the demands of rival lawmakers, Bersani said today after meeting Napolitano at the presidential palace in Rome. The president will consult political leaders tomorrow.
Napolitano, 87, must now find a leader capable of building consensus where Bersani, the 61-year-old head of the Democratic Party, came up empty. Policy differences accumulated during the Feb. 24-25 election campaign hurt Bersani’s ability to lure his main adversaries, Silvio Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo, into backing his candidacy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on March 28, 2013, 02:21:59 PM
The best case for Berlusconi would be some patched up government based on Bersani and Grillo that soon falls apart leading to new elections.  I am pretty sure Berlusconi comes in with a majority in that case.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 28, 2013, 02:38:35 PM
Now that Bersani's officially failed, I wonder how long his leadership can last. Doubtful the hacks and left abandon Bersani, so it wouldn't happen without a fight.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 28, 2013, 02:51:12 PM
Now that Bersani's officially failed, I wonder how long his leadership can last. Doubtful the hacks and left abandon Bersani, so it wouldn't happen without a fight.

I think Bersani himself has given up. He's down-to-earth enough to realize nobody likes him.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 28, 2013, 03:12:56 PM
Even if he has, the Bersanist wing will put up another candidate. They'll fight to the very end against a Renzi leadership.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 29, 2013, 01:55:08 PM
PD says they'll accept a president's government, PdL and M5S say no. PdL demanding Grand Coalition and their presidential choice. Despite denials, apparently Berlusconi himself wanted the Quirinale. The mere idea of SB as President of the Republic makes me almost physically ill, quite possibly the biggest troll move thus far. Some speculation about Bersani being finished, plus a lot of new speculation about Renzi, who's returned to the national arena in recent days.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 29, 2013, 02:16:55 PM
Give us these fycking new elections!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on March 29, 2013, 02:35:01 PM

I know, how long are they going to drag this out for? It was obvious on the night that there'd need to be be new elections; Bersani should've made nothing more than a polite attempt at forming a coalition and then announced that (predictable) failure and the need for new elections.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 29, 2013, 02:45:36 PM


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 29, 2013, 03:55:20 PM
Apparently Napolitano is considering resigning early to move up the presidential election and a possible dissolution.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 29, 2013, 03:58:09 PM
Apparently Napolitano is considering resigning early to move up the presidential election and a possible dissolution.

Hopefully...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on March 29, 2013, 04:15:14 PM
Berlusconi Increases Lead in SWG Poll of Italy Voting Intentions
By Andrew Frye and Chiara Vasarri
March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Pollster comments in statement distributed today by e-mail.
Former PM Silvio Berlusconi’s coalition gains to 32.5% as of March 29 from 30.2% a week earlier: SWG
Pier Luigi Bersani’s coalition rises to 29.6% from 29.4%: SWG
Beppe Grillo’s party falls to 24.8% from 26.9%: SWG
Florence Mayor Matteo Renzi, a Bersani ally, has trust of 55% of voters, ranking first among leaders: SWG
Bersani has trust of 30%; Grillo, 29%; Berlusconi, 26%; PM Mario Monti, 19%: SWG

How interesting Berlusconi has the least trust but leads voting intentions.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 29, 2013, 04:24:12 PM
People want an end to the chaos. Berlusconi's lead, like it or not, makes perfect sense. This was all way too predictable.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 29, 2013, 04:27:50 PM
People want an end to the chaos. Berlusconi's lead, like it or not, makes perfect sense. This was all way too predictable.

Oh, just shut up...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Velasco on March 29, 2013, 04:30:12 PM
People want an end to the chaos. Berlusconi's lead, like it or not, makes perfect sense. This was all way too predictable.

I'd say Berlusconi is a Master of Chaos. So yes, everything makes perfect (and absurd) sense.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 29, 2013, 04:34:04 PM
People want an end to the chaos. Berlusconi's lead, like it or not, makes perfect sense. This was all way too predictable.

Oh, just shut up...

Oh, don't get like the other one around here. My statement wasn't meant as a talking point in favor of Silvio. You know he benefits in situations like these and saying as much shouldn't mean "OMG UR DEFENDING HIM!"


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 29, 2013, 04:40:27 PM
For someone who's so neutral and detached, you're just so eager to point out anything that in any way would favor Berlusconi in some way.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 29, 2013, 04:50:56 PM
PD is seriously divided between Bersani and Renzi followers, or so I think the article says. :P

http://www.campanianotizie.com/politica/italia/57020-governo-in-direzione-pd-resa-conti-bersani-renzi.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 29, 2013, 05:37:17 PM
For someone who's so neutral and detached, you're just so eager to point out anything that in any way would favor Berlusconi in some way.

Anyone who isn't constantly whining about Berlusconi is a lackey in the eyes of his haters. You guys are as deranged as the people you rail against.

Anyway, don't derail the thread because of what you perceive to be Pro Silvio commentary/news. As far as I'm concerned, anyone should be able to make a praising post without your side fussing. This is basically 59 pages of Berlusconi bashing and that's fine but the second someone is seen as a fan, everything has to stop so the haters can throw a fit. Either let all (respectful) comments stand and carry on with business as usual or stop posting any kind of promotion/attack on the political figures.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Gary J on March 29, 2013, 06:06:23 PM
How about PD announcing that, as public spirited Italians wanting to keep Silvio Berlusconi out of power, they will vote to give a Grillo party minority government confidence and supply; without requiring any prior agreement on what the minority government would do.

That way PD can choose the timing of the next general election, by deciding when to withdraw support. The Grillo party should take the major blame for anything that goes wrong whilst they are in government, as well as no longer being a nice shiny anti-system party.

I do not know if this sort of idea would make any sense to Italians. Is there some Italian concept, like the idea in British politics that the Queen's government must be carried on (at least sufficiently to delay the next election for about six months)?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 29, 2013, 07:16:28 PM
For someone who's so neutral and detached, you're just so eager to point out anything that in any way would favor Berlusconi in some way.

Anyone who isn't constantly whining about Berlusconi is a lackey in the eyes of his haters. You guys are as deranged as the people you rail against.

Anyway, don't derail the thread because of what you perceive to be Pro Silvio commentary/news. As far as I'm concerned, anyone should be able to make a praising post without your side fussing. This is basically 59 pages of Berlusconi bashing and that's fine but the second someone is seen as a fan, everything has to stop so the haters can throw a fit. Either let all (respectful) comments stand and carry on with business as usual or stop posting any kind of promotion/attack on the political figures.

It's hilarious how when Italian politics are brought up you suddenly become a moderate hero who whines about the forum's lack of objectivity and anti-Berlusconi bias. As if Berlusconi haters and Berlusconi fanboys were just as bad and you, who (supposedly) rejects both, are the only smart, objective and balanced person. Except that's not how it works. There is one side (Berlusconi haters) which is morally and objectively right, and another (Berlusconi fans) which is a bunch of irredeemable morons. So being "neutral" means being biased.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on March 29, 2013, 08:28:06 PM
For someone who's so neutral and detached, you're just so eager to point out anything that in any way would favor Berlusconi in some way.

Anyone who isn't constantly whining about Berlusconi is a lackey in the eyes of his haters. You guys are as deranged as the people you rail against.

Anyway, don't derail the thread because of what you perceive to be Pro Silvio commentary/news. As far as I'm concerned, anyone should be able to make a praising post without your side fussing. This is basically 59 pages of Berlusconi bashing and that's fine but the second someone is seen as a fan, everything has to stop so the haters can throw a fit. Either let all (respectful) comments stand and carry on with business as usual or stop posting any kind of promotion/attack on the political figures.

It's hilarious how when Italian politics are brought up you suddenly become a moderate hero who whines about the forum's lack of objectivity and anti-Berlusconi bias. As if Berlusconi haters and Berlusconi fanboys were just as bad and you, who (supposedly) rejects both, are the only smart, objective and balanced person. Except that's not how it works. There is one side (Berlusconi haters) which is morally and objectively right, and another (Berlusconi fans) which is a bunch of irredeemable morons. So being "neutral" means being biased.

That's right. Being anti-Berlusconi is being rational.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on March 29, 2013, 08:32:35 PM
For someone who's so neutral and detached, you're just so eager to point out anything that in any way would favor Berlusconi in some way.

Anyone who isn't constantly whining about Berlusconi is a lackey in the eyes of his haters. You guys are as deranged as the people you rail against.

Anyway, don't derail the thread because of what you perceive to be Pro Silvio commentary/news. As far as I'm concerned, anyone should be able to make a praising post without your side fussing. This is basically 59 pages of Berlusconi bashing and that's fine but the second someone is seen as a fan, everything has to stop so the haters can throw a fit. Either let all (respectful) comments stand and carry on with business as usual or stop posting any kind of promotion/attack on the political figures.

It's hilarious how when Italian politics are brought up you suddenly become a moderate hero who whines about the forum's lack of objectivity and anti-Berlusconi bias. As if Berlusconi haters and Berlusconi fanboys were just as bad and you, who (supposedly) rejects both, are the only smart, objective and balanced person. Except that's not how it works. There is one side (Berlusconi haters) which is morally and objectively right, and another (Berlusconi fans) which is a bunch of irredeemable morons. So being "neutral" means being biased.

That's right. Being anti-Berlusconi is being rational.

And backing Santorum (moral values!) and Berlusconi at the same time isn't rational.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on March 29, 2013, 08:38:24 PM
That way PD can choose the timing of the next general election, by deciding when to withdraw support. The Grillo party should take the major blame for anything that goes wrong whilst they are in government, as well as no longer being a nice shiny anti-system party.

Great plan, except one small detail... why on earth would M5S agree to form a government on those terms? They're not stupid, they would realise that it's an obvious trap.

Besides M5S doesn't want to form government. What M5S wants to do is to change (over-throw) the system.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 29, 2013, 08:41:43 PM
That way PD can choose the timing of the next general election, by deciding when to withdraw support. The Grillo party should take the major blame for anything that goes wrong whilst they are in government, as well as no longer being a nice shiny anti-system party.

Great plan, except one small detail... why on earth would M5S agree to form a government on those terms? They're not stupid, they would realise that it's an obvious trap.

Besides M5S doesn't want to form government. What M5S wants to do is to change (over-throw) the system.

Their official position is that they want a M5S government, though. It'd actually be pretty smart for the PD to say "fine, go ahead - we'll back you if we like what you are doing". That would put them in a very uncomfortable position, either appearing as hypocrites or putting themselves on the frontline amid tough times


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 29, 2013, 08:46:34 PM
I'd prefer keeping the crazy trolls as far away from power as possible. And remember that being supposedly discredited might not mean much in this environment- just ask Berlusconi. There is a solution: elect a new president, swap Bersani for Renzi and have another election. Strong, stable PD majority is the only stable way out.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 30, 2013, 07:05:33 AM
For someone who's so neutral and detached, you're just so eager to point out anything that in any way would favor Berlusconi in some way.

Anyone who isn't constantly whining about Berlusconi is a lackey in the eyes of his haters. You guys are as deranged as the people you rail against.

"As deranged as the people I rail against" may make a good future username. Remind me of it sometime. :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on March 30, 2013, 07:56:04 AM
I too get the impression that Phil is a secret admirer of Berlusconi, but won't dare admit it.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 30, 2013, 08:23:48 AM
Napolitano will serve out his term and will be naming an advisory group to try and devise policies with cross-party support. Isn't this what everyone's been trying since the election though? :P

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21981679#TWEET695802


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 30, 2013, 08:41:19 AM
For someone who's so neutral and detached, you're just so eager to point out anything that in any way would favor Berlusconi in some way.

Anyone who isn't constantly whining about Berlusconi is a lackey in the eyes of his haters. You guys are as deranged as the people you rail against.

Anyway, don't derail the thread because of what you perceive to be Pro Silvio commentary/news. As far as I'm concerned, anyone should be able to make a praising post without your side fussing. This is basically 59 pages of Berlusconi bashing and that's fine but the second someone is seen as a fan, everything has to stop so the haters can throw a fit. Either let all (respectful) comments stand and carry on with business as usual or stop posting any kind of promotion/attack on the political figures.

It's hilarious how when Italian politics are brought up you suddenly become a moderate hero who whines about the forum's lack of objectivity and anti-Berlusconi bias. As if Berlusconi haters and Berlusconi fanboys were just as bad and you, who (supposedly) rejects both, are the only smart, objective and balanced person. Except that's not how it works. There is one side (Berlusconi haters) which is morally and objectively right, and another (Berlusconi fans) which is a bunch of irredeemable morons. So being "neutral" means being biased.

No, I'm not a Moderate Hero; I'm just against blatantly unfair treatment towards anyone that dares to not be 110% against Berlusconi/PdL all of the time. I'm certainly not a Moderate Hero here when it comes to PdL fans; I don't think they're just as bad because they're basically non-existant. If they were here (like the one time a Pro Silvio post was made and deleted), I would defend them because of the mob mentality against them.

Your "objectively morally right vs. morons" comment is all of the proof I need that your commentary here is bogus. I'm so sorry that you take the supposed Silvio "black and white" worldview. Get over yourself and stop whining about (shock!) other opinions.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 30, 2013, 08:54:06 AM
I too get the impression that Phil is a secret admirer of Berlusconi, but won't dare admit it.

Yeah, that makes sense. I'm all about liking and defending only non-controversial figures. ::)

By the way, for the longest time I was more of a Silvio fan (though I've been clear that I've always been more fascinated with Berlusconi than anything else. "OH NO!!! That's code for SUPPORTER!").

See my above paranthetical point when you want to talk about my "support" for Silvio not jiving with my admiration for Santorum.

Bottom line: the fact that this being made about me is pathetic. Stick to discussing what is going on politically in Italy, not who I may or may not support. And if anyone chooses to voice their support for someone you don't like, learn how to be an adult: accept it, discuss it respectfully if necessary and move on.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: ag on March 30, 2013, 12:49:22 PM
I too get the impression that Phil is a secret admirer of Berlusconi, but won't dare admit it.

Yeah, that makes sense. I'm all about liking and defending only non-controversial figures.

It's not about being controversial. You full well realize that there is a difference between Santorum and Berlusconi. It is that one can support Santorum for, say, ideological reasons and stick be respectable, while supporting Berlusconi is incompatible with remaining on speaking terms with anyone, for whom "Western democracy" is moré tan an empty sound. You know it, and know why it is so. But you are tempted.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 30, 2013, 01:53:20 PM
For someone who's so neutral and detached, you're just so eager to point out anything that in any way would favor Berlusconi in some way.

Anyone who isn't constantly whining about Berlusconi is a lackey in the eyes of his haters. You guys are as deranged as the people you rail against.

Anyway, don't derail the thread because of what you perceive to be Pro Silvio commentary/news. As far as I'm concerned, anyone should be able to make a praising post without your side fussing. This is basically 59 pages of Berlusconi bashing and that's fine but the second someone is seen as a fan, everything has to stop so the haters can throw a fit. Either let all (respectful) comments stand and carry on with business as usual or stop posting any kind of promotion/attack on the political figures.

It's hilarious how when Italian politics are brought up you suddenly become a moderate hero who whines about the forum's lack of objectivity and anti-Berlusconi bias. As if Berlusconi haters and Berlusconi fanboys were just as bad and you, who (supposedly) rejects both, are the only smart, objective and balanced person. Except that's not how it works. There is one side (Berlusconi haters) which is morally and objectively right, and another (Berlusconi fans) which is a bunch of irredeemable morons. So being "neutral" means being biased.

No, I'm not a Moderate Hero; I'm just against blatantly unfair treatment towards anyone that dares to not be 110% against Berlusconi/PdL all of the time. I'm certainly not a Moderate Hero here when it comes to PdL fans; I don't think they're just as bad because they're basically non-existant. If they were here (like the one time a Pro Silvio post was made and deleted), I would defend them because of the mob mentality against them.

Your "objectively morally right vs. morons" comment is all of the proof I need that your commentary here is bogus. I'm so sorry that you take the supposed Silvio "black and white" worldview. Get over yourself and stop whining about (shock!) other opinions.

I'm not whining about "opinions". I am pointing out that said "opinions" are, objectively speaking, f**king stupid. And yes, your position is typical of a moderate hero, as your comment about the "black and white worldview" eloquently shows. Even worse, you're using the middle ground fallacy on an issue where even the biggest moderate hero would understand it makes no sense.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Velasco on March 30, 2013, 02:35:06 PM
Silvio and moderate heroism are things absolutely incompatible. I though that the Moderate Hero in this Tragicomedy was Monti, oth. However, this is a funny discussion to read, even when this mess in which Il Cavaliere plays a protagonic role is serious and disgusting. As some illustrious poster wrote in this thread, maybe paraphrasing a certain Kurtz: Oh the Horror!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on March 31, 2013, 02:26:50 AM
I too get the impression that Phil is a secret admirer of Berlusconi, but won't dare admit it.

Yeah, that makes sense. I'm all about liking and defending only non-controversial figures. ::)

By the way, for the longest time I was more of a Silvio fan (though I've been clear that I've always been more fascinated with Berlusconi than anything else. "OH NO!!! That's code for SUPPORTER!").

See my above paranthetical point when you want to talk about my "support" for Silvio not jiving with my admiration for Santorum.

Bottom line: the fact that this being made about me is pathetic. Stick to discussing what is going on politically in Italy, not who I may or may not support. And if anyone chooses to voice their support for someone you don't like, learn how to be an adult: accept it, discuss it respectfully if necessary and move on.

Look, I don't actually care about whether you like Berlusconi, but I think the fit you threw above does nothing to dispel the notion that you're ashamed to support him. I think you've read hostility in my post that wasn't there: this isn't a witch-hunt for Berlusconi supporters, just a sneaking suspicion said with a smile. I expect most right-wingers to support his coalition - I know most UK right-wingers would - so it's not a case of me not being able to stomach your support for him. There's just a hint of barely concealed glee in your posts about him that's difficult to overlook.

Also - AG said - there's a difference between supporting less-than-popular socons, and discredited corrupt buffoons like Berlusconi, so there's a very real reason why even deeply right-wing people are hesitant to show support for him.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 31, 2013, 07:39:58 AM
Renzi still reiterating he's not interested in being PM... if that holds, PD is screwed.

http://www.gonews.it/articolo_189640_Renzi-Lascio-Palazzo-Vecchio-solo-per-fare-il-Premier.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 31, 2013, 01:11:08 PM
I too get the impression that Phil is a secret admirer of Berlusconi, but won't dare admit it.

Yeah, that makes sense. I'm all about liking and defending only non-controversial figures.

It's not about being controversial. You full well realize that there is a difference between Santorum and Berlusconi. It is that one can support Santorum for, say, ideological reasons and stick be respectable, while supporting Berlusconi is incompatible with remaining on speaking terms with anyone, for whom "Western democracy" is moré tan an empty sound. You know it, and know why it is so. But you are tempted.

The point is that I'm afraid to support someone because it's frowned upon. If that was the case, I would be just as afraid to support and defend Santorum as I would Berlusconi. And this entire argument is negated by the fact that I did, at one time, openly support Berlusconi when it wasn't popular. Chew on that fact, please. Though I'm sure that will be ignored because it doesn't fit the idiotic myth around here.

And Tony, two can plan at this game: your opinions, as a left winger supporter of the most hilariously incompetent center-left organization in the western world, are objectively stupid. Why? Because I said so. And pointing out that this isn't black and white isn't Moderate Heroism. Moderate Heroism is taking a position smack in the middle just for the sake of it being the centrist position. That is the exact opposite of me. Get a clue.

Now get the hell over however I feel or may feel. Discuss the damn news and process.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 31, 2013, 01:44:30 PM
Tony, I'm asking that you be warned at this point.

I don't give a damn that you find Berlusconi indefensible. Don't. Give. A. Damn. We aren't here to meet your approval. Grow the hell up, wake the hell up to other opinions and stop derailing the damn thread.

And please stop being so blatantly disingenuous when you know I'm not here defending Berlusconi. I comment on news, you throw a fit whenever it is "Pro Berlusconi" and want to lash out because you have no other outlet. Your side is going to lose again soon enough. I know this is very, very frustrating for you but get over it. Thanks!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 31, 2013, 01:50:44 PM
The only reason I give a damn is because I have some esteem for you and know you can be a good poster when you actually want to. I certainly would limit myself to laughing you off if I thought you were just some random hack. I'll certainly do this from now on, since you don't seem to be in any way interested in having any level of common sense in this thread. Have fun trolling.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 31, 2013, 02:02:23 PM
The only reason I give a damn is because I have some esteem for you and know you can be a good poster when you actually want to. I certainly would limit myself to laughing you off if I thought you were just some random hack. I'll certainly do this from now on, since you don't seem to be in any way interested in having any level of common sense in this thread. Have fun trolling.

I discuss the damn news in this thread, kid. That's the "common sense" in this thread. I've stressed several times that we shouldn't dwell on personal opinions. You and others disregard that and then when someone dares to comment on news that seems "Pro Silvio," you throw a temper tantrum because "THERE'S NO WAY TO OBJECTIVELY BE IN FAVOR OF SILVIO!!!!" That's not even recognizing the fact that my comments on these stories aren't Pro Silvio.

You've derailed this thread every time and you're going to talk about trolling? "Trolling" is now anything you dislike that's posted about Berlusconi. I've had enough of it. Moderators have been notified. I've tried with you in the past. You're not interested. 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 31, 2013, 02:25:41 PM
I'm sorry if reality has an "anti-Silvio" bias.

Really, I have no idea what you are talking about when you say you are bringing up news that nobody wasn't talking about because they were "pro-Silvio". I don't recall you bringing up and particular news story we refused to talk about. The problem is not about the news themselves but rather your reactions to it, and the fact they almost always are comments on how successful Berlusconi is or is going to be. Which would lead anyone to believe you're a Belusconi supporter (personally, I've no idea, I think it's more likely that you just like to be contrarian).

I also find it pretty interesting the idea that "we shouldn't dwell on personal opinions". So moderate heroish. There is nothing wrong with expressing a personal opinion, as long as it's a personal opinion which makes some sense. Pretending to be "above" the political debate is only a way for you to preserve this moderate hero act and equate the "pro-Silvio" and "anti-Silvio" sides as if they were equivalent.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 31, 2013, 02:34:46 PM
When did I say you refused to talk about a story? I'm saying I talk about news and you throw a tantrum because you think it's "Pro Silvio."

You need to get a clue about what Moderate Hero means. It isn't a Moderate Hero stance to say that a thread about news should stay about news and not make this a campaign thread but if you want to allow personal opinions, learn to accept different ideas. I don't want to hear "Yeah, let's have personal opinions and campaigning here but only for sides that aren't for Silvio. BEAUSE REALITY IS BIASED AGAINST HIM!!!

Let's all remember that your recent tantrum began when I said that Silvio benefited from chaos and people turn to him for stability. Analysts have said that for years but because I said it, you had to moan about how it was Berlusconi cheerleading. My "opinion" didn't make sense to Master Antonio. I'll remember that any time a respected analyst points that out. ::)

Listen, kid, I've had enough. I've discussed this to death. You just want to rant because you're very frustrated that your side is hilariously incompetent. You make me this Pro Silvio enemy so you can flip out. You've derailed this enough. You're the troll here. The end.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 31, 2013, 02:59:44 PM
I wouldn't really have minded for that comment in itself honestly, if it wasn't the gazillionth one you had made about Silvio's greatness and the way he's so much better/more skillful than everyone else (though implying Berlusconi represents "stability" in the modern political situation is something pretty ridiculous to say). Look, I've no idea if you're a Berlusconi fan or not, but you're acting like one. But if you at least claimed yourself as an actual Berlusconi fan (as opposed to a moderate hero seeking to correct this forum's supposed "bias") it would be far less annoying. We could actually engage in substantial discussion and it wouldn't be hard to rationally demonstrate that Berlusconi is a vile piece of sh*t and move on to something else. But you'd rather play your little annoying games.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 31, 2013, 03:08:12 PM
For the last time, this isn't about meeting your approval. Some of you really need to get over yourselves. You think I feel the need to hide what I feel from you guys? Who do you think you are? And most importantly...

My opinions here shouldn't be the topic of discussion. Who the hell cares? Accept whatever the hell you think I believe and move the hell on. This childish obsession you have with the opposition (or people you think are in the opposition) is exactly the stuff you whine about with Berlusconi!

The only one playing games is you. Constantly harping on whatever the hell I believe or don't believe. I'm going to continue to post whatever the hell I want. It isn't trolling. It will be allowed. You, however, want to be a little baby any time someone says something that seems remotely Pro Silvio. You're a child. A child that realizes your side is losing. Again. One of its great traditions.

You've now dedicated a full page to your stupid witch hunt. Again, it has been reported and you'll be dealt with.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on March 31, 2013, 03:38:03 PM
Anyways, Berlusconi isn't leading by enough. It would be the same as currently, but with Berlusconi in the role of Bersani.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 31, 2013, 04:14:02 PM
The lot of you'd better calm the fuck down or the thread gets fucking locked at fucking once. Diolch.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 31, 2013, 05:59:31 PM
You're right, I shouldn't care about whatever bullsh*t you are posting. From now on, I'll learn the lesson and just ignore you (like everybody else is doing already, mind you). I guess my mistake was to understate your level of silliness. Sorry about that.

Yep, silence those (supposed) contrary opinions (like...you know...Berlusconi, right?) or just ignore them. Glad you're finally slightly getting over yourself and not dwelling on my personal opinions on this. 

You've had your panties in a bunch ever since it became obvious that PD has put up another massive zero. I know it's tough, buddy, but you'll grow up one day. Maybe by the time the next PdL government finishes.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 31, 2013, 06:03:20 PM
Note: please do not post any "good news" about PdL/Berlusconi. If and when PdL wins the next election, posting about it is strictly forbidden. This is considered rooting for the "objectively evil" side.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 31, 2013, 06:29:20 PM
Guys, please cut it out. I really don't want Sibboleth to lock the thread. :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 31, 2013, 08:13:18 PM
You can't reconcile the irreconcilable.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 01, 2013, 07:09:27 AM
PD is girding for a Renzi-Barca duel. PD's annual conference is in 3 weeks, and the annual primary (leadership review?) in October. I think it'll take a Berlusconi or Grillo Camera (since I doubt anyone's winning the Senate right now) win to wake them up.

http://www.ilgiornale.it/news/interni/bersani-non-molla-pd-si-prepara-duello-renzi-barca-901731.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 01, 2013, 01:04:49 PM
Who the hell is Barca? ??? Never heard before.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 01, 2013, 01:41:46 PM
Who the hell is Barca? ??? Never heard before.

Stefano Barca, the Bersanist heir apparent.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 01, 2013, 02:31:43 PM
You're combining names, my friend. It's Fabrizio Barca, some minor minister that actually served in Monti's government. He was an Independent. The other person you're probably thinking of is Stefano Fassina.

Barca was the subject of a Wall Street Journal write up in January - http://blogs.wsj.com/eurocrisis/2013/01/11/italian-minister-says-he-is-cheering-for-bersani-not-monti/ (http://blogs.wsj.com/eurocrisis/2013/01/11/italian-minister-says-he-is-cheering-for-bersani-not-monti/)

He's clearly on the left wing as he was debating between joining PD or SEL.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 01, 2013, 02:37:41 PM
My bad. Though the point remains that Bersanists are still delusionally stuck in ABR mode.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on April 02, 2013, 03:59:13 AM
I too get the impression that Phil is a secret admirer of Berlusconi, but won't dare admit it.

Yeah, that makes sense. I'm all about liking and defending only non-controversial figures.

It's not about being controversial. You full well realize that there is a difference between Santorum and Berlusconi. It is that one can support Santorum for, say, ideological reasons and stick be respectable, while supporting Berlusconi is incompatible with remaining on speaking terms with anyone, for whom "Western democracy" is moré tan an empty sound. You know it, and know why it is so. But you are tempted.

Claiming something like  "supporting Berlusconi is incompatible with remaining on speaking terms with anyone," is against all the elementary principles of democracy.
Unfortunately Berlusocni still represents the center-right in Italya and everyone has to deal with it, without pretending he doesn't exist, especially in this period of economic crisis.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 02, 2013, 08:07:46 AM
Reports that Bersani will probably leave, Renzi laying the groundwork for taking the party leadership. Even Berlusconi's daughter Barbara said he'd be the better PD candidate. :P

http://www.giornalettismo.com/archives/856601/il-piano-di-renzi/

PD voters have realized their mistake: Renzi now pwns Bersani 66-10. :D


http://urbanpost.it/sondaggi-renzi-batte-bersani-66-a-10


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 02, 2013, 09:57:26 AM
Whoa: Bersani saying that he'd step aside if PD feels he's an impediment to forming government, will lead the party at least till its congress in a few weeks. If he does step aside, I'd at least thank him for putting the national and party interest above his own personal ambition.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 02, 2013, 11:14:30 AM
PdL now saying that if Bersani won't go Grand- which he completely ruled out this morning- then there's no choice but a June election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 02, 2013, 11:33:44 AM
Bersani says the bid to form a government is now over.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 02, 2013, 12:07:20 PM
According to Wiki the presidential election joint session must start no later than the 14th. Does anyone know who the candidates might be? PD is only a dozen votes short in the electoral college, so this shouldn't take long. Then the PD congress in 3 weeks, when the baton will either be passed or start moving that way.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: palandio on April 02, 2013, 02:16:48 PM
Whoa: Bersani saying that he'd step aside if PD feels he's an impediment to forming government, will lead the party at least till its congress in a few weeks. If he does step aside, I'd at least thank him for putting the national and party interest above his own personal ambition.

From what I get Bersani is a "party soldier", who would put the interest of the traditionalist wing of his party above his personal ambition.

So for him there are the following scenarios:
1) he stays PD leader and eventually gets Presidente del Consiglio in a Grand Coalition -- would damage the PD brand, have to share government with Berlusconi, would help Grillo, not so good!
2) he stays PD leader, wins the next general election -- unlikely!
3) he stays PD leader, loses the next general election -- bad both for the party and its traditionalist wing!
4) Renzi gets PD leader and wins the next election -- good, at least for his party, which desperately wants to govern.
5) Renzi gets PD leader and loses the next election -- bad for the party as a whole, but at least it would weaken the PD modernists, and remember that a majority of core PD supporters (those that would turn out in the primaries) are left-leaning voters who might support Renzi only because of electability concerns.
6) A new left-leaning candidate like Barca or Fassina gets PD leader and wins the general election -- This is a relatively risky strategy. On the one hand Pisapia, De Magistris, Vendola, Zedda ecc. have shown that being a left-winger per se is not necessarily a liability when it comes to electability. On the other hand the people mentioned before have been elected before the big Grillo wave and if the new candidate becomes to closely tied to the apparatchik wing of the PD in the public opinion he could lose most of his appeal. (Remember though that many undecideds are not centrists.)
7) A new left-leaning candidate gets PD leader and loses the general election -- This would be an utter desaster for the PD left wing: General election lost, young, hopeful candidate burnt and probably right wing of the party in the pole position.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 02, 2013, 02:58:57 PM
Either way very unlikely he leads the party for much longer. His best bet would be stepping aside for another leftist candidate and hoping that person wins. Doesn't seem likely for now.

Questions for the Italians: Will leadership be a topic at the PD congress in 3 weeks?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: palandio on April 02, 2013, 03:53:58 PM

Bersani is culturally a representant of PCI orthodoxy. When it comes to ideology he is not so different from Renzi.

Fassina on the other is quite leftist.

A simple left-right spectrum would be insufficient to depict all PD factions and the difference between Renzi and Bersani. (Though it is true that most social democrats and socialists in the PD have supported Bersani.) If you have some knowledge of Italian you might take a look at the Wikipedia entry "Correnti del Partito Democratico" (fancy!).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 02, 2013, 04:09:41 PM
Yeah, I know. Their candidate doesn't necessarily share their views, that's what I was saying in shorthand. Bersani offered to meet with Berlusconi but Alfano said no because the only real reason to talk was grand coalition, which PD has wisely refused. When do the 10 Wise Men report?



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on April 02, 2013, 04:17:26 PM
Berlusconi will never run against Renzi (a charismatic candidate half his age),so any poll as of now is worthless.

M5S's behaviour keeps on being close to ridicolous, saying no to EVERYTHING.
On the other side, PDL trying to appear as the "responsible party" after having occupied Milan's Palace of Justice, and after promising to give back IMU cash to all citizens...and after the last 20 years,it's pretty damn pathetic.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 02, 2013, 04:27:47 PM
The poll was a hypothetical primary rematch between Bersani and Renzi, not a general election matchup. Otherwise agreed that polls aren't too valuable right now.

M5S: They're a protest party. As for PdL, they're just being PdL.



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 02, 2013, 05:08:13 PM
Renzi's financial report for his foundation is out. Raised 865k Euros. Apparently he got 100k of that from a financial institution, which is causing some buzz. What exactly is Renzi's foundation about? Is this a fundraising organization? Not familiar with Italian campaign finance law. :P

http://corrierefiorentino.corriere.it/firenze/notizie/politica/2013/2-aprile-2013/a-renzi-100mila-euro-finanziere-serra-212456508727.shtml


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 02, 2013, 05:55:32 PM
This "wise men" pull by Napolitano is pretty pathetic, honestly. What the hell are they gonna do? Convince PD that PdL is not actually a bunch of thugs and can actually be acceptable coalition partners? Convince PdL to drop Berlusconi under the bus, which could easily open way to negotiations? None of this is gonna happen. Let's elect a left-wing, morally irreproachable President, and then go back to the polls. Hopefully with Renzi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 02, 2013, 06:05:11 PM
Pro forma, obviously. We still haven't heard of any presidential candidates proposed by either side.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 02, 2013, 06:07:25 PM
Pro forma, obviously. We still haven't heard of any presidential candidates proposed by either side.

Maybe it's better this way. Presidential Elections in Italy are like Conclaves: if people view you as the favorite, you're probably doomed... ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 02, 2013, 10:22:56 PM
So I did some Googling about the leaders' foreign language skills. Bersani apparently speaks decent French but might need a script. Monti is excellent in French and English. Renzi speaks pretty good English, though not as good as Monti. If anyone can dig up the PD videos, much appreciated.

http://www.lospaziodellapolitica.com/2012/11/candidato-do-you-speak-english/

Berlusconi is decent in English.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfAGken_8EQ

Monti fantastic but with an accent.

http://www.time.com/time/video/player/0,32068,1441566061001_2106444,00.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 02, 2013, 10:29:10 PM
So I did some Googling about the leaders' foreign language skills. Bersani apparently speaks decent French but might need a script. Monti is excellent in French and English. Renzi speaks pretty good English, though not as good as Monti. If anyone can dig up the PD videos, much appreciated.

http://www.lospaziodellapolitica.com/2012/11/candidato-do-you-speak-english/

Berlusconi is decent in English.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfAGken_8EQ

Monti fantastic but with an accent.

http://www.time.com/time/video/player/0,32068,1441566061001_2106444,00.html

I love accents in general! :) And the Italian accent in English is especially awesome IMO.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 03, 2013, 07:33:06 AM
Did it really have to be pointed out that these people speak with an accent? :P

I assume they all have skills in Spanish. Anyone know German? ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on April 03, 2013, 08:02:50 AM
Maybe the only thing he is decent in...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 03, 2013, 08:21:46 AM
The electoral college will convene on the 18th. Quick reminder on the process: 2/3 on first 3 ballots, simple majority thereafter. PD/SEL can almost elect a candidate outright, so all they need is someone acceptable to Monti.

https://www.facebook.com/electionista/posts/447678031974039

Renzi sure isn't wasting any time, he made a speech to the Florentian trade union congress calling for labour market reform.  :)

http://www.loccidentale.it/node/120996

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/41072/Renzi-says-gridlocked-Italy--wasting-time-.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 03, 2013, 09:15:18 AM
Still no word on a PdL-favored candidate?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 03, 2013, 09:19:31 AM
No word on any candidates yet.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 03, 2013, 10:02:25 AM
I assume they all have skills in Spanish.

Can an untrained Italian-speaker understand Spanish?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on April 03, 2013, 10:34:19 AM
I assume they all have skills in Spanish.

Can an untrained Italian-speaker understand Spanish?

Very very little


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franknburger on April 03, 2013, 10:40:43 AM
Did it really have to be pointed out that these people speak with an accent? :P

I assume they all have skills in Spanish. Anyone know German? ;)

I would not make knowledge of German a prime criteria for selecting a PM - German politicians nowadays tend to speak some English (often with accent, of course). :) Nevertheless, I would assume Monti also having some knowledge of German from his time in the EU Commission.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: mappix on April 03, 2013, 11:34:01 AM
Today Monti's government made another embarrassing move in the Parliament by blocking the law for the payments to enterprises who are desperately waiting money from the State and local administrations they provide goods/services to. The govt. proposed to divide the payment: 20 bn. € now and 20 later (a solution that was not supported by Confindustria). M5S criticized the plan of giving money to the banks first (then the banks would have given it to enterprises), while EU commission raised doubts about the sustainability of the payment (which public opinion perceives as "bad EU wanting to make all Italian enterprises go out of business for not getting paid"). Yesterday it was discovered that this payment was balanced with an anticipated increase of regional taxes and the protest made the govt. withdraw this solution. Today in Parliament the govt. has withdrawn the decree law altogether to find new solutions next week, further exasperating the frustration of enterprises. The problem of local administations' debts towards enterprises is one of the issue the future govt. has to tackle as soon as possible given the amount of hostility and rage toward institutions and EU.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 03, 2013, 01:02:35 PM
Mara Carfagna posted on Facebook that she'd personally like to see Emma Bonino as President. ::)

I assume they all have skills in Spanish.

Can an untrained Italian-speaker understand Spanish?

In this case, the speakers are obviously trained in Italian though. :P  I'm not one of the people saying Italian and Spanish are essentially the same; I believe many Italians learn a second or third language and Spanish is usually one of those languages.

If you mean untrained in Spanish, I've been told that Italians can pick up on key phrases/words because of a similarity with Italian but, again, my point is that a lot of people seem to be trained in several languages and Spanish is usually one of them. At first, I thought you were saying someone who only knows a little Italian can't understand Spanish.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 03, 2013, 01:03:05 PM
I assume they all have skills in Spanish.

Can an untrained Italian-speaker understand Spanish?

No way. :P I mean, I guess I could try a few words, but that would most likely result in an epic fail. I might be able to understand it, unless too tricky words are involved.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 03, 2013, 01:10:28 PM
None of the parties have officially proposed a presidential candidate. PdL doesn't want Amato or d'Alema, they did float Berlusconi adviser Letta and Berlusconi himself. One possible compromise candidate is Marini.

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/41159/Squabbling-parties-faced-with-election-of-president.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 03, 2013, 01:11:54 PM
None of the parties have officially proposed a presidential candidate. PdL doesn't want Amato or d'Alema, they did float Berlusconi adviser Letta and Berlusconi himself. One possible compromise candidate is Marini.

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/41159/Squabbling-parties-faced-with-election-of-president.html

The less this is discussed, the best. Surprise effect will certainly benefit the PD.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 04, 2013, 07:46:04 AM
Renzi: I'm ready to be a candidate, grand coalition or a new election.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/04/us-italy-vote-idUSBRE9330C020130404


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 04, 2013, 09:46:36 AM
Bersani is stuck on stupid: still wants to try a minority government after the wise men report.

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/41287/Bersani-rebuffs-Renzi-s-call-for-quick-action.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 04, 2013, 11:03:19 AM
Renzi: I'm ready to be a candidate, grand coalition or a new election.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/04/us-italy-vote-idUSBRE9330C020130404

Ok, who would definitely challenge him?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 04, 2013, 11:20:57 AM
We don't know because Bersani is clinging to the leadership like a lobster with lockjaw. I assume one of the two previously mentioned will challenge in a primary. Nor are Napolitano and Bersani happy about Renzi's latest salvo.

In other news, Ruby's back. Could bring some interesting headlines for PdL.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/04/silvio-berlusconi-trial-ruby-warfare

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/41287/Bersani-rebuffs-Renzi-s-call-for-quick-action.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 04, 2013, 11:32:14 AM
Hah: In a GE, Berlusconi might not even run himself against Renzi, perhaps Giorgia Meloni as the PdL PM candidate.

http://affaritaliani.libero.it/politica/retroscena-meloni-centrodestra040413.html?refresh_ce


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 04, 2013, 11:44:56 AM
Weren't they planning at one point to make Alfano PM if they won the February election?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 04, 2013, 12:04:28 PM
That was the plan, since Maroni had vetoed Berlusconi as the official PM candidate. Not that it matters since anyone else would be a puppet, which begs the question of why Maroni vetoed in the first place.

Berlusconi wants her because his internal polling shows Renzi handily beating both he and Alfano. Nor does he think Alfano has the ticker to take on Renzi. She's young, relatively popular, female, from a junior coalition partner, been critical of PdL before. When all's said and done, Il Cav is still ducking behind a woman half his age rather than go mano-a-mano with Renzi. ::)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 04, 2013, 12:18:31 PM
Meloni! :D

Ruby is back in the headlines for the trial but is denying having sex with Berlusconi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on April 04, 2013, 04:11:22 PM
Still no word on a PdL-favored candidate?

Berlusconi,duh.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 05, 2013, 07:29:38 AM

Ok but are they actually going to nominate him and would he accept when he'd definitely lose?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 08, 2013, 12:40:19 PM
New PD primary poll from Ipsos: Renzi 40, Bersani 36, Barca 15. Renzi has a lot of work cut out for him in the primary.

http://www.iprmarketing.it/mondo-politico/un-italiano-su-quattro-si-aspetta-elezioni-anticipate


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 08, 2013, 12:48:04 PM
Over 30% still support Bersani? Only four points behind the boy wonder? Is this a late April Fools joke poll?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on April 09, 2013, 01:11:05 AM
LOL,there won't be new primaries.
Renzi will be the candidate PM,Barca will work within the party to sharply change it,Bersani will be home.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 09, 2013, 05:53:17 AM
Over 30% still support Bersani? Only four points behind the boy wonder? Is this a late April Fools joke poll?
No, it's just a party with well defined factions, almost like the LDP and the DC of yore.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 09, 2013, 09:20:06 AM
Some news: Berlusconi said that he and Bersani will meet, Renzi has been denied a slot as one of the Tuscan regional presidential electors, and the PD parliamentary caucus is split 3 ways. 120 bersanini, 50 renziani and 70 "Young Turks." Whereas last year 90% of caucus was pro-Bersani.

http://www.ansamed.info/ansamed/en/news/nations/italy/2013/04/09/Berlusconi-says-Bersani-finally-open-meeting-_8521997.html

http://www.liberoquotidiano.it/news/1219897/Quirinale-i-renaziani-puntano-su-Prodi.html

Update: Berlusconi-Bersani meeting over, nothing happened. Discussed the presidency but no names.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 10, 2013, 02:32:24 AM
Very long interview with Grillo, who's still an HP troll.

http://www.metronews.it/master.php?pagina=notizia.php&id_notizia=13022


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 10, 2013, 08:15:21 AM
Renzi is rightly pissed at being specifically denied an elector slot on orders from Rome. On the bright side, gives him sympathy for such a public and gratuitous insult.

http://www.ilgiornaledivicenza.it/stories/Regione/495041_grande_coalizione_tra_renzi_e_tosi__gi_una_realt/?refresh_ce


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 10, 2013, 04:58:03 PM
God, the PD establishment are really a bunch of retards.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 10, 2013, 05:51:40 PM
Bersani denied it on RAI today but obviously no one believed him.  If I had to guess he gave the council a yellow light, I doubt they'd have done that with a red light. The vote was 12-10 in favour of regional Assembly Speaker Alberto Monaci.

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/42095/Renzi-spars-with-Bersani.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 10, 2013, 08:42:46 PM
Bersani denied it on RAI today but obviously no one believed him.  If I had to guess he gave the council a yellow light, I doubt they'd have done that with a red light. The vote was 12-10 in favour of regional Assembly Speaker Alberto Monaci.

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/42095/Renzi-spars-with-Bersani.html

More likely to be one of the old bigwigs IMO (people like D'Alema and all).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 11, 2013, 08:17:25 AM
Renzi had to deny silly rumours that he'd split from PD, saying he's a lifer.

http://www.polisblog.it/post/74695/matteo-renzi-non-lascio-il-pd-ma-basta-con-gli-attacchi-personali

Berlusconi-Murdoch detente? Though Murdoch tweeted in support of Renzi a couple of months ago...

http://www.primaonline.it/2013/04/11/116526/mediaset-berlusconi-sonda-murdoch-su-premium/


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2013, 07:38:44 AM
PD voters still prefer Renzi 40-29, and he's by far the most trusted pol.

http://www.ilsitodifirenze.it/content/520-sondaggi-il-pd-vuole-matteo-renzi


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 13, 2013, 08:35:52 AM
Berlusconi saying that a Renzi-led PD would be "modern" and he gets on OK with Vendola as well.

http://www.leggo.it/news/politica/berlusconi_elogio_a_matteo_renzi_nel_pd_lui_il_pi_moderno_di_tutti/notizie/223007.shtml

LOL, Bersani whining about Renzi's "arrogance" and portraying himself as the strong, silent type. Sorry, that level of epic failure doesn't deserve an iota of sympathy.

http://www.globalist.it/Detail_News_Display?ID=42780&typeb=0


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 13, 2013, 11:38:29 AM
Berlusconi will be PdL's PM candidate in an early election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: batmacumba on April 14, 2013, 12:17:13 AM
Young! Against bureaucracy! Outsider! Media circus around! Yeeeeaaaaayyyyyy!!!

I may be wrong, but such things unavoidably smells Collor to me.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 14, 2013, 11:15:28 AM
Berlusconi will be PdL's PM candidate in an early election.

Well, the flirtation with Meloni was fun while it lasted but I think we all knew this was coming.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Iannis on April 15, 2013, 07:07:48 AM
Berlusconi will be PdL's PM candidate in an early election.

I'm not sure in case of Renzi candidacy for PD


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2013, 08:24:45 AM
Renzi doesn't want Marini for President because he lost his seat and Finocchario because she was caught using her bodyguards as valets during a shopping trip. Berlusconi doesn't want Prodi and he may want Bonino of all people.

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/42661/Renzi-blasted-as--pitiful--in-centre-left-friendly-fire.html

http://www.liberoquotidiano.it/news/1223965/Quirinale-Berlusconi-vede-prima-Renzi-poi-Bersani-voto-a-luglio-pi%C3%B9-vicino.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-15/italy-presidential-vote-set-as-rift-in-democratic-party-deepens.html

Apparently Renzi and Berlusconi will be attending the same gala soon, so perhaps an opportunity for a chat.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 15, 2013, 09:17:56 AM
He may want Bonino? ::) I wonder what deal is being worked out there. What a horrible possibility.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2013, 09:27:07 AM
Either a massive troll, trying to split PD or genuine. We can probably discount the last one.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 16, 2013, 08:53:22 AM
Looks like the Grillini are going with a woman for President: reporter Milena Gabanelli. She won M5S' online vote. She released a statement saying she was "extremely moved and also overrated." No word if she will accept the nomination. If she doesn't, the party will keep moving down the list (in the order in which the candidates placed by vote total obviously) until someone accepts. This is supposedly the final blow to Prodi as PD was holding out hope M5S would support him as a compromise pick. Prodi finished second to last.

The actual Presidential voting begins on Thursday.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 16, 2013, 10:51:47 AM
Grillo says if Gabanelli refuses, they're going with Stefano Rodotà. He supposedly has support within PD, too.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 16, 2013, 02:34:39 PM
Yeah, Rodotà has been floated around a lot, and I think he could be a nice PD-M5S compromise candidate, as well as a morally irreproachable pick.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 17, 2013, 01:17:52 PM
Berlusconi and Bersani have agreed on Marini for President, despite opposition from PD Renziani. Dunno if the presidential vote is a whipped one or not, it'd be embarrassing to have 60-odd PD MPs vote against their party's nominee.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on April 17, 2013, 03:02:28 PM
Ok, PD managed to do a mess of this too.

It will be a secret vote. So you can whip as much as you can, but you will never know who voted who.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 17, 2013, 03:17:06 PM
Marini was the Senate President when Prodi's government collapsed, right? I remember him flipping out when the center-right members started literally popping bottles in celebration. :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2013, 03:34:36 PM
PD = braindead f**ktards.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2013, 03:37:06 PM
SEL will support Rodotà (who will be the M5S candidate). At least someone has a brain in the Italian left.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 17, 2013, 03:43:45 PM
He'll still win on the first ballot though. Takes office on May 15, right? But first, the PD general council. I hope Renzi's ready.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2013, 03:46:27 PM
He'll still win on the first ballot though. Takes office on May 15, right? But first, the PD general council. I hope Renzi's ready.

I still hold out hope that enough PD backbenchers will revolt.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 17, 2013, 03:55:43 PM
I don't know about regional electors, but IBC caucus is 468, PdL 242. The defections mean it'll go to a fourth ballot: 60-odd Renziani, 44 SEL. Of course some could get cold feet later, but given that it's a secret ballot... either way Marini is elected a few days later.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: palandio on April 17, 2013, 04:01:23 PM
Some say that even the ultra-Bersanian Young Turks (Fassina etc.) might come out against Marini.
Vendola, Renzi, Fassina all on one side... The Italian center-left never fails to amuse me.

-- Irony on -- Probably it's only a Macchiavellian trick by Bersani/D'Alema
1) to make the PD's left-wing party base support rightist Renzi, the only one who can maybe win the general election
2) at the same time give the Young Turks a chance to distance themselves from Bersani.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2013, 04:02:37 PM
I don't know about regional electors, but IBC caucus is 468, PdL 242. The defections mean it'll go to a fourth ballot: 60-odd Renziani, 44 SEL. Of course some could get cold feet later, but given that it's a secret ballot... either way Marini is elected a few days later.

Precisely because it's a secret ballot, MPs could vote without pressures from the party establishment... And if they can prevent a 2/3 majority in the first ballot, maybe that will encourage the PD to reconsider its position.

I know it would be a miracle, but you never know...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on April 17, 2013, 04:15:13 PM
Marini was the Senate President when Prodi's government collapsed, right? I remember him flipping out when the center-right members started literally popping bottles in celebration. :D

In a truly classy fashion, they were eating mortadella. Literally.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 17, 2013, 04:16:41 PM
What's the problem with Marini? Just an old school machine hack?

Any word on how Lega Nord clowns will vote? In the past, they've bucked the coalition and voted for Bossi. Will they fall in like this time or back one of their stooges? I guess it won't be Bossi these days...



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 17, 2013, 04:17:21 PM
Marini was the Senate President when Prodi's government collapsed, right? I remember him flipping out when the center-right members started literally popping bottles in celebration. :D

In a truly classy fashion, they were eating mortadella. Literally.

Oh, I know. Who wouldn't love Nino Strano? :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 17, 2013, 04:18:58 PM
What's the problem with Marini? Just an old school machine hack?

Any word on how Lega Nord clowns will vote? In the past, they've bucked the coalition and voted for Bossi. Will they fall in like this time or back one of their stooges? I guess it won't be Bossi these days...



Berlusconi said Lega will vote for Marini. IIRC the problem was that he lost his seat in February. Personally I care more about the premiership than the presidency.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 17, 2013, 04:22:00 PM
PD caucus vote: 222 Yes, 90 No, 21 Abstain, 90 absent. #clownparty


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2013, 04:40:50 PM
PD caucus vote: 222 Yes, 90 No, 21 Abstain, 90 absent. #clownparty

()


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on April 17, 2013, 07:27:30 PM
Berlusconi Maintains Lead On Bersani, IPR Poll Shows
By Marco Bertacche
April 16 (Bloomberg) --

Former PM Berlusconi’s coalition leads PD leader Bersani’s bloc 31.7% to 29.5%, IPR poll for TG3 shows. Beppe Grillo’s party at 23%, while Monti’s bloc is at 8.3%: poll

Bonino leads with 32% as favorite candidate for Italy presidency, Rodota 18%, television journalist Gabanelli 15%, Amato 7%, Prodi 6%: poll
NOTE: IPR conducted poll April 16 on 1,000 interviews


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 17, 2013, 07:49:18 PM
Monti still polling that "high?" He isn't crazy enough to run again, right?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RodPresident on April 17, 2013, 09:29:38 PM
I think that PD wouldn't support Bonino because Radical's posture in election. It will be a very fun election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 17, 2013, 09:36:34 PM
I'll be physically ill if that woman becomes president.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on April 18, 2013, 06:53:21 AM
Breaking: Marini Doesn’t Have Votes for Italian Presidency, Tally Shows.  Euro drops.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 18, 2013, 07:39:21 AM
Tally:

Marini    520
Rodotà   340
Chiamparino    41
Prodi       14
Bonino    13
D'Alema  12

Next vote expected in the evening.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 18, 2013, 08:38:05 AM
If I'm reading correctly, sources are saying the next Parliamentary election will be July 7th.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 18, 2013, 09:16:50 AM
If I'm reading correctly, sources are saying the next Parliamentary election will be July 7th.

PD needs to switch NOW. Question is how. Do any Italians know how the PD leadership mechanisms work? They have a general council in a few weeks but I'm sure Bersani can round up enough of his hacks...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 18, 2013, 11:20:27 AM
Bersani and Renzi will meet today in Rome, meanwhile looks like the 2nd presidential round will be a joke with many MPs casting blank votes rather than for Marini.

Phil: What I read is that it's a possibility, nothing certain.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 18, 2013, 12:21:19 PM
Second ballot flops, onto the third.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 18, 2013, 12:23:09 PM
418 blank votes. 230 for Rodotà. Chiamparino up to 90.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 18, 2013, 12:26:15 PM
418 blank votes. 230 for Rodotà. Chiamparino up to 90.

Second ballot #?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 18, 2013, 12:33:41 PM

Yes


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Famous Mortimer on April 18, 2013, 12:53:12 PM
Oh man, there was even an effort to get Alessandra Mussolini elected.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 18, 2013, 01:09:05 PM
PD caucus will meet again to vote on a candidate, third ballot tomorrow.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 18, 2013, 01:31:56 PM
Oh man, there was even an effort to get Alessandra Mussolini elected.

I doubt it there was an "effort." There are always a few votes for nutty people especially in the early rounds.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Famous Mortimer on April 18, 2013, 01:41:06 PM
She got 15 votes according to Wiki, same as Marini got that round.

Not a SERIOUS effort obviously but more than a few stray votes.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 18, 2013, 01:44:52 PM
Man City manager Roberto Mancini, porn stars and Santo Versace also received votes in the second round.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 18, 2013, 04:19:18 PM
Renzi wants Prodi or Chiamparino for President. SB has said hell no on Prodi, dunno how he'd feel about Chiamparino.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 18, 2013, 05:02:30 PM
Renzi wants Prodi? And Renzi's still the face of the "new," reform side?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 18, 2013, 05:34:09 PM
People should watch the relevant scenes in Il Divo.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on April 18, 2013, 05:39:05 PM
Renzi wants Prodi? And Renzi's still the face of the "new," reform side?
Yeah but you have to admit that no president elected that way can really be neither "new" nor "reform side"... So Prodi's the next best thing really.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 18, 2013, 06:29:00 PM
People should watch the relevant scenes in Il Divo.

Except there isn't an established "bad guy" obviously scheming for the spot in this one.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 18, 2013, 08:14:16 PM
People should watch the relevant scenes in Il Divo.

Except there isn't an established "bad guy" obviously scheming for the spot in this one.

This is true, but I was thinking more of the insanity of the brokering in the corridors, stairs, toilets...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 18, 2013, 09:01:24 PM
The question is, who is Scalfaro in this scenario?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Dereich on April 19, 2013, 02:41:34 AM
I hear two things from twitter: first is an SWG poll on which party voters believe is acting most responsibly which goes PDL 25%, PD 23%, M5S 17%. Next is that PD has officially chosen Prodi as their presidential candidate.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on April 19, 2013, 05:13:08 AM
The PDL widened its lead over the PD in an opinion poll released today by SWG. Berlusconi’s coalition would win 33.8 percent of the vote if elections were held today, with the PD getting 31 percent. Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement was at 24 percent, SWG said.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 19, 2013, 06:15:15 AM
My Facebook is a buzz with prominent center-right politicians saying "NO PRODI." Looks like that's who the center-left want. What a joke.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 19, 2013, 08:03:40 AM
My Facebook is a buzz with prominent center-right politicians saying "NO PRODI." Looks like that's who the center-left want. What a joke.

Prodi, as a centrist to centre-right politician, is not bad, but I prefer M5S candidate (never thought I'd say that).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 19, 2013, 08:21:32 AM
Third ballot tally (according to La Repubblica):

Rodotà - 250
D'Alema - 34
Prodi - 22
Napolitano - 12
Cancellieri - 9
Fioretti - 8
De Caprio - 7
Marini - 6
Palmieri - 5
Mussolini - 5

465 blank votes. The center-right skipped this round in protest.

Starting on the fourth ballot, only a simple majority (504 votes) will be required to elect a President.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 08:53:03 AM
Saying Prodi is about 10 votes short depending on whether any grillini go rogue. Seriously increases the chance of a July election. Apparently Renzi's push for Prodi was an outreach effort to bersanini in a hypothetical primary, keeping his eye on the ball. My prediction: Berlusconi wins the Camera if PD doesn't switch leaders.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 09:42:28 AM
Here's a live feed. Can anyone translate?

http://www.polisblog.it/post/77027/presidente-della-repubblica-elezione-live-la-quarta-votazione-e-iniziata-pdl-e-lega-protestano-prodi-ce-la-fara


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 11:48:23 AM
Reports that Prodi will fall slightly short, however ballot far from over. sh**t.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 11:50:18 AM
So now what? How many ballots is this going to take?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 11:57:24 AM
Forget slightly, he only got 396 and needed 504! #epicfail #jokeparty


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 19, 2013, 12:17:09 PM
Hilarious.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 12:20:43 PM
So do they try again or go with someone else? Even if every single IBC voted for him he'd still be a couple of dozen short. Any senators for life under 80 for whom enough votes could be found?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 19, 2013, 12:24:38 PM
Looks like Alfano is trying to humiliate PD by saying Marini had the amount of votes yesterday that would be required to win today. An attempt to get them to back down and follow the original agreement? Either way, I imagine PD is thoroughly embarrassed by all of this.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 12:27:53 PM
PD and PdL have to firmly agree on a candidate, that's been confirmed beyond any shadow of a doubt. Bring Monti in too if possible. Crazy idea, but how about a joint caucus meeting between PD and PdL? That way the dissenters can have a say.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 19, 2013, 12:38:38 PM
What about Cancellieri? I think I read earlier how PdL was flirting with going her way. She has Monti's backing (she is his Interior Minister).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 12:40:04 PM
Would PD back her? Anyhoo, Vendola said SEL voted for Prodi and the split's within PD. Burn.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 01:06:09 PM
Renzi: Prodi no longer a viable candidate. As Nardelli points out here, the leadership and presidential votes have merged.

http://albertonardelli.tumblr.com/post/48366026636/prodi-doesnt-pass

http://www.ansa.it/web/notizie/rubriche/english/2013/04/19/-Prodi-candidacy-says-Renzi_8582584.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 01:38:51 PM
Now PD is denying rumours that Bersani would resign, but he definitely should. Hell, dunno why he'd even want to appear in public.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 01:47:28 PM
Rosy Bindi has resigned.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 01:53:21 PM
Prodi has withdrawn his candidacy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 19, 2013, 01:55:01 PM
Ah, Bindi. One of Silvio's great enemies. A spectacular disaster this has become for PD. But yes, they should totally be tasked with running the country. Yep.


All the way from Mali!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 02:01:04 PM
More like Bersani couldn't run a lemonade stand, much less one of the 2 major parties.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peeperkorn on April 19, 2013, 02:12:43 PM
Italian Left = Joke Parties.

They wouldn't approve anything revolutionary if they win anyway.

I call all my Italian brothers in la Peninsula and all'Estero to think in the future of Italy and support the only political leader that can rescue Italy from the tedeschi's dominion, Silvio Berlusconi.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 02:14:56 PM
Yeah, but Bersani has to resign or call a primary first. I don't think there are mechanisms which trigger that process involuntarily. Resident Italians can of course correct me if I'm wrong.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 02:18:09 PM
Berlusconi is meeting Monti.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peeperkorn on April 19, 2013, 02:18:56 PM
Yeah, but Bersani has to resign or call a primary first. I don't think there are mechanisms which trigger that process involuntarily. Resident Italians can of course correct me if I'm wrong.

Bersani is weak, he will shameless resign.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 02:21:25 PM
Given everything that's happened in the past 2 months and that he hasn't already...  I can see him doing it but only if he can set up one of his loyalists against Renzi in a primary.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 19, 2013, 02:22:38 PM
Leo Bassi can be considered more serious than PD now.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 02:24:41 PM
PD officially confirms Bindi's resignation.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 19, 2013, 02:24:56 PM
Anyone taking bets on how big PdL's lead will be in the next set of general election polling after this fiasco? They're at..what?...a four point lead now?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 02:29:35 PM
5-7 with Bersani as PD leader, depending on what happens tomorrow.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peeperkorn on April 19, 2013, 02:40:53 PM
5-7 with Bersani as PD leader, depending on what happens tomorrow.

+5 for Bersani in polls = +2 for Berlusconi in reality.

Italy is full of undiscovered rightist towns in the mountains full of old people and donkeys  that never are polled.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 02:44:51 PM
I meant Berlusconi leads by 5-7. Anyways, Bersani has called a party meeting. Probably about tomorrow's ballot.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 19, 2013, 02:45:38 PM
5-7 with Bersani as PD leader, depending on what happens tomorrow.

+5 for Bersani in polls = +2 for Berlusconi in reality.

Italy is full of undiscovered rightist towns in the mountains full of old people and donkeys  that never are polled.

No, he means +5-7 for Silvio if Bersani remains as the PD leader. Right now, it's +4 Silvio. PD hasn't led in awhile.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peeperkorn on April 19, 2013, 02:46:41 PM
5-7 with Bersani as PD leader, depending on what happens tomorrow.

+5 for Bersani in polls = +2 for Berlusconi in reality.

Italy is full of undiscovered rightist towns in the mountains full of old people and donkeys  that never are polled.

No, he means +5-7 for Silvio if Bersani remains as the PD leader. Right now, it's +4 Silvio. PD hasn't led in awhile.

It's like the other time all over again.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 03:05:34 PM
PD senator just tweeted that Bersani will resign! :D  Once a new president is elected. So find a freakin' name already.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peeperkorn on April 19, 2013, 03:17:25 PM
PD senator just tweeted that Bersani will resign! :D  Once a new president is elected. So find a freakin' name already.

It begins with "Future" and ends with "loser".


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 19, 2013, 03:23:06 PM
Rodotà is the only way to go.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 03:26:23 PM
Who's that? Anyways, I'm guessing Bersani's resignation automatically triggers the primary process upon taking effect? To be scheduled by the party executive obviously.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 19, 2013, 03:28:47 PM

The M5S/SEL (for the first few rounds) candidate that has been coming in first or second the whole time.  :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 03:30:57 PM
Question is will PD take that advice or go back to Berlusconi? I read Grillo's English blog post on it and for once he made sense. Dunno why PD didn't go with Rodota from the outset... except that their soon-to-be-ex leader is a political moron.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 03:33:04 PM
He has officially resigned. Thanks for doing the right thing, even if a little late.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 19, 2013, 03:34:54 PM
Damn. Let's see if a Bersani-backed stooge can win the primary.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 19, 2013, 03:35:18 PM
The person who allegedly schemed to sink Prodi is the infamous Massimo d'Alema. What a piece of sh*t.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 19, 2013, 03:37:06 PM
The person who allegedly schemed to sink Prodi is the infamous Massimo d'Alema. What a piece of sh*t.

Weren't they like best buddies? And I'm talking recently...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 03:38:03 PM
The person who allegedly schemed to sink Prodi is the infamous Massimo d'Alema. What a piece of sh*t.

The POS got Bersani to resign by sinking Prodi. So not all bad. Now if the presidency can be resolved ASAP, then primaries can kick off.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 03:39:47 PM
PD will cast blank ballots in tomorrow's vote. Dunno why.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 03:49:57 PM
Berlusconi said he's open to a joint candidate. So decide whether they can get enough votes for a deal with him or enough for Rodota, then vote.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peeperkorn on April 19, 2013, 03:50:18 PM
If Grillo supports anyone he loses all his credibility.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 19, 2013, 03:51:31 PM

:P

Rodotà won his party's online poll.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 19, 2013, 03:52:44 PM
The person who allegedly schemed to sink Prodi is the infamous Massimo d'Alema. What a piece of sh*t.

The POS got Bersani to resign by sinking Prodi. So not all bad. Now if the presidency can be resolved ASAP, then primaries can kick off.

Bersani wasn't really the problem. The problem is the scheming party hacks behind him, of which D'Alema is the most prominent representative.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 03:55:15 PM
Even if all of them had voted for Prodi he still wouldn't have won. Bersani's the one who blew a 10-point lead and then blew the presidential negotiations... but yeah, in a larger sense I agree that he's the symptom and not the cause.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 04:03:24 PM
PdL will also be casting blank ballots tomorrow. Can't find a candidate quickly enough, or some other reason?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 19, 2013, 07:56:17 PM
I'm pretty sure that the real problem is that the Second Republic has only a little more credibility than the First now.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 19, 2013, 09:03:08 PM
I'm pretty sure that the real problem is that the Second Republic has only a little more credibility than the First now.

Probably less, actually. I am pretty sure contempt for the political class is higher today than it was in 1992, and that's saying something.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 20, 2013, 07:11:26 AM
Whoa: Reports that Napolitano will accept a second term- whether a full one or merely an extension is unclear. He wants Amato as an interim PM or elected President as a condition. Might push the election back to autumn or next spring.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 20, 2013, 07:23:27 AM
Napolitano has accepted. :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 20, 2013, 07:42:03 AM
Yikes!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 20, 2013, 07:42:23 AM
Wow.

How would an "extension" work?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 20, 2013, 08:01:01 AM
I guess he resigns partway into the new term, I highly doubt he'll be there till he's 94. Barca doesn't like the idea, ass that he is.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 20, 2013, 10:57:51 AM
Napolitano reelected in a landslide. Now the hard part begins.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Franzl on April 20, 2013, 11:01:41 AM
Does this mean new elections soon?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 20, 2013, 11:04:07 AM
No. Another interim government, electoral law or even constitutional (French system) overhaul, then elections in the fall or next spring. Plus PD primaries, since Bersani's resignation will take effect very soon.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 20, 2013, 11:11:52 AM
So is Amato as Prime Minister a done deal?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 20, 2013, 11:17:00 AM
Standing ovation in the chamber...except for M5S members.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 20, 2013, 11:37:22 AM
741 votes, or 74%.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 20, 2013, 12:46:40 PM
Government consultations begin on Tuesday.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 20, 2013, 01:36:06 PM
Someone please euthanize the PD.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 20, 2013, 01:47:03 PM

They'd just regroup under another name. Anyhoo, Bersani has now resigned and won't participate in the consulations- I assume the PD parliamentary leaders will take charge until primaries can be triggered?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 20, 2013, 01:50:09 PM

They'd just regroup under another name. Anyhoo, Bersani has now resigned and won't participate in the consulations- I assume the PD parliamentary leaders will take charge until primaries can be triggered?

I don't give a damn, this party is rotten at its core and contaminated by pure evil. Until something else replaces it, nothing good will ever come to Italy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 20, 2013, 01:50:52 PM
I'm pretty sure that the real problem is that the Second Republic has only a little more credibility than the First now.
I don't think the Second Republic has looked like it ever might become more legitimate than the First was in its final phase again, at any point since Berlusconi's second victory.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 20, 2013, 01:52:28 PM
I highly doubt he'll be there till he's 94.
He'll probably remain in office long after anyone else mentioned in this thread bar Berlusconi has sunk to irrelevancy...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 20, 2013, 01:53:56 PM
I highly doubt he'll be there till he's 94.
He'll probably remain in office long after anyone else mentioned in this thread bar Berlusconi has sunk to irrelevancy...

Such thing is never going to happen.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 20, 2013, 02:21:47 PM
I'm pretty sure that the real problem is that the Second Republic has only a little more credibility than the First now.
I don't think the Second Republic has looked like it ever might become more legitimate than the First was in its final phase again, at any point since Berlusconi's second victory.

Litotes, again.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 20, 2013, 02:22:45 PM
I don't give a damn, this party is rotten at its core and contaminated by pure evil. Until something else replaces it, nothing good will ever come to Italy.

?!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 20, 2013, 02:27:09 PM
I don't give a damn, this party is rotten at its core and contaminated by pure evil. Until something else replaces it, nothing good will ever come to Italy.

?!
More Litotes.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 20, 2013, 02:27:10 PM
I'm pretty sure that the real problem is that the Second Republic has only a little more credibility than the First now.
I don't think the Second Republic has looked like it ever might become more legitimate than the First was in its final phase again, at any point since Berlusconi's second victory.

Litotes, again.

Though I guess it could be argued that at least half of all deputies and senators (or whatever the exact figure was - I actually posted it a few years ago) aren't under investigation at the moment. But that's about it.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 20, 2013, 02:30:27 PM
I'm pretty sure that the real problem is that the Second Republic has only a little more credibility than the First now.
I don't think the Second Republic has looked like it ever might become more legitimate than the First was in its final phase again, at any point since Berlusconi's second victory.

Litotes, again.

Though I guess it could be argued that at least half of all deputies and senators (or whatever the exact figure was - I actually posted it a few years ago) aren't under investigation at the moment. But that's about it.
Just goes to show the magistracy is now just as rotten. ;D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 20, 2013, 02:32:30 PM
;D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 20, 2013, 02:33:58 PM
I don't give a damn, this party is rotten at its core and contaminated by pure evil. Until something else replaces it, nothing good will ever come to Italy.

?!

You disagree?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 20, 2013, 02:39:33 PM
The actual figure (which I've just checked!), by the way, was more like 16%: which is still... er... impressive. Gold medal to the PSDI which had nine out of nineteen under investigation by the summer of 1993!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 20, 2013, 02:49:39 PM
I don't give a damn, this party is rotten at its core and contaminated by pure evil. Until something else replaces it, nothing good will ever come to Italy.

?!

You disagree?

No, Yes, Eh... Italy's problems run rather deeper.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 20, 2013, 02:53:44 PM
I wasn't aware reelecting (or 'extending the term of') a President was even constitutional in Italy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 20, 2013, 02:59:17 PM
No term limits for a president, just never been done before. They floated a second term for Ciampi ("Ciampi-bis") in '06 but he rejected the idea.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 20, 2013, 03:00:28 PM
I wasn't aware reelecting (or 'extending the term of') a President was even constitutional in Italy.

I thought it was just a one term deal as well but I think I saw that that's more of a gentle men's agreement. The center-right tried to get Ciampi to run again in 2006 (trying to prevent Napolitano because of his communist roots. Go figure) but he declined.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 20, 2013, 03:01:24 PM
No term limits for a president, just never been done before. They floated a second term for Ciampi ("Ciampi-bis") in '06 but he rejected the idea.

Beat me by under a minute. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 20, 2013, 03:08:36 PM
I don't give a damn, this party is rotten at its core and contaminated by pure evil. Until something else replaces it, nothing good will ever come to Italy.

?!

You disagree?

No, Yes, Eh... Italy's problems run rather deeper.

Necessary condition =/= sufficient condition.

Also, I didn't mean to say all PD politicians are evil. But there are irredeemably evil people in the party, and they have been getting their way so far.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 20, 2013, 03:36:35 PM
Would Bersani be an example of one of the irredeemably evil people, in your opinion, or do you think he's merely selfish and stupid?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 20, 2013, 03:44:56 PM
Would Bersani be an example of one of the irredeemably evil people, in your opinion, or do you think he's merely selfish and stupid?

Nah, Bersani is mostly a tool who never really had a chance to take an initiative of its own. He probably tried to do what he though was best for his party and his country, but has always been entangled into alliances and compromises with the truly evil people. Most PD members are like Bersani, actually. It's just that other people pulling the strings behind the scenes.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on April 20, 2013, 04:28:23 PM
Enrico Letta is tempory in charge of what is left of PD


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 20, 2013, 04:39:39 PM
Mightn't it just as well split into its constituent parts now? As a project it was always fundamentally flawed...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 20, 2013, 04:48:54 PM
Remember a few years back when everyone was talking about how great it would be when Bersani takes over PD because he was the "most electable" leader and Silvio would be terrified of him? What the hell happened?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: palandio on April 20, 2013, 04:50:08 PM
Tomorrow (and on Monday) there will be hold regional elections in Friuli-Venezia Giulia.

Traditionally tending slightly to the right, at the general elections center-left and center-right got almost exactly the same number of votes.

The center-left candidate is Debora Serracchiani, a Renziana.
The center-right candidate is Renzo Tondo.
The M5S candidate is Saverio Galluccio.

After what happened in the last days and today I expect a real bloodbath for the center-left. Poor Serracchiani, it's not really her fault.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 20, 2013, 05:10:04 PM
The PD won't hold a primary till September earliest, if they survive that long.

http://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2013/04/20/pd-verso-congresso-rischio-scissione-giasfida-renzi-barca/570398/

Phil: Eurocrisis happened, something which the Italian political system wasn't designed for and pushed it well beyond its limits. Thus the rapid deterioration, if not quite implosion. Desperately need a new electoral law, though some are speculating about a constitutional convention which would switch to either a French or pure presidential system.



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 20, 2013, 05:13:48 PM
Mightn't it just as well split into its constituent parts now? As a project it was always fundamentally flawed...

Definitely.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 20, 2013, 05:16:25 PM
If not at least loosely allied they won't win an election under this system. Or to put it another way, Grillo would've had a temporary Camera majority.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 20, 2013, 05:41:00 PM
If not at least loosely allied they won't win an election under this system. Or to put it another way, Grillo would've had a temporary Camera majority.

What needs to happen is that all those who aren't completely damaged goods need to leave the PD and let it collapse. Once the PD is gone, that new thing can replace it as the main center-left party.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RodPresident on April 20, 2013, 06:18:19 PM
A late-80s President accepting crossover support for reelection reminds me from a certain European country in 1982. And he getting support from long-time enemies.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: batmacumba on April 20, 2013, 07:45:51 PM
If not at least loosely allied they won't win an election under this system. Or to put it another way, Grillo would've had a temporary Camera majority.

What needs to happen is that all those who aren't completely damaged goods need to leave the PD and let it collapse. Once the PD is gone, that new thing can replace it as the main center-left party.

Did Ingroia's extreme electoral incompetence make him a bad fit to lead this, or does that Orange thingy of him have any chance of raising from the dead?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 20, 2013, 10:55:47 PM
Yeah, I was wondering how Ingroia/de Magistris will fare in light of all of this especially if the center-left goes more "centrist" with Renzi. Along the same lines, has Vendola hinted at another leadership run?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 20, 2013, 11:11:00 PM
Tomorrow (and on Monday) there will be hold regional elections in Friuli-Venezia Giulia.

Traditionally tending slightly to the right, at the general elections center-left and center-right got almost exactly the same number of votes.

The center-left candidate is Debora Serracchiani, a Renziana.
The center-right candidate is Renzo Tondo.
The M5S candidate is Saverio Galluccio.

After what happened in the last days and today I expect a real bloodbath for the center-left. Poor Serracchiani, it's not really her fault.

But I guess it's worth noting that Tondo is the incumbent. Unless he was scandal-plagued, a center-right hold can't be that surprising even if the region is evenly divided.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RodPresident on April 21, 2013, 01:15:50 AM
Does Grillini candidate stand a chance in FVG?
And Vendola should be repented until now. By accepting an early coalition with PD, he destroyed his national political capital and transfered it to Grillo.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 22, 2013, 10:40:19 AM
Renzi is running whenever the primary trigger is pulled.

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/43629/Renzi-primed-for-centre-left-leadership-challenge.html


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2013, 11:28:13 AM
Friuli has not been a bloodbath for PD....but maybe worse...their candidate is now 2% ahead of PDL but the missing areas to be reported should favour PdL-Lega...so I think she may lose by 1% in the end....lose by such a tiny margin after last week's events

Grillo's candidate is around 20%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 22, 2013, 12:48:13 PM
Turnout was "only" 51%. That's down 20% from last time.

From what I read, Serracchiani (PD) is at 39.37% to Tondo's (PdL) 38.81%.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 22, 2013, 12:55:08 PM
95% of precincts in.

Serracchian (PD)i - 39.34%
Tondo (PdL) - 38.93%
Galluccio (M5S) - 19.27%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 22, 2013, 01:09:12 PM
Almost exactly a two thousand vote difference. There are 56 precincts left. 26 of those are from the Udine comune (which PD is winning by right points). She might just hold on...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2013, 01:30:55 PM
Almost exactly a two thousand vote difference. There are 56 precincts left. 26 of those are from the Udine comune (which PD is winning by right points). She might just hold on...

Yes, she held on. Now just 30 precints left. 20 of them are in Udine town (favouring her) and not the little villages in the province (favouring PdL-Lega).



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 22, 2013, 02:26:02 PM
What was the deal with Tondo? Was he problematic or is this just such a swing region that it was going to be a squaker either way?

Also, did the 20% decrease in turnout hurt Tondo?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 22, 2013, 04:16:30 PM
What was the deal with Tondo? Was he problematic or is this just such a swing region that it was going to be a squaker either way?

Also, did the 20% decrease in turnout hurt Tondo?

He did also a term between 2001 and 2003. They seem to switch all the time, last time than an incumbent was reelected was in 1988.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2013, 04:59:03 PM
Final results for Friuli

Serracchiani (PD, SEL, Italy of Values, 2 local lists) 39.39%
Tondo (PdL, Lega, La Destra, UDC, Pesionati, local list) 39%
Galluccio (M5S) 19.21%
Bandelli (local list) 2.4%

Lists

PD 26.82% (19 seats)
PDL 20.3% (7)
M5S 13.75% (6)
Tondo's list 10.72% (4)
Lega 8.27% (3)
Serracchiani's list 5.3% (3)
SEL 4.45% (3)
UDC 3.69% (1)
Bandelli's list 2.06%
La Destra 1.55%
Slovenian minority list (pro Serracchiani) 1.41% (1)
Italy of Values 1%
Pensionati 0.94%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 22, 2013, 05:01:04 PM
Tondo had a list separate from PdL?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2013, 05:02:33 PM
Also, did the 20% decrease in turnout hurt Tondo?

Low turnout hurt PdL. However, last week's PD debacle could have depressed their base


Something called Autonomia Responsabile (with his name in the logo).

Centre-left had Citizens for Serracchiani President.

They often create this kind of lists in local elections to support candidates for presidents or mayor.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 22, 2013, 05:08:57 PM
Good for her, and for Friulans, I guess. PD is still sick anyway.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 23, 2013, 11:45:46 AM
Looks like Amato or Leta will get the nod for PM. Meanwhile Berlusconi is now ahead by 5 or 7, depending on the poll. Congrats Phil.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on April 23, 2013, 11:55:14 AM
With 1 precint missing, the PdL incumbent in Udine province is set to be reelected with 50.04%. PD and co candidate polled 41.06%. No M5S in provincial contest.

The counting for Udine mayor is at midway. It looks like the PD incumbent will go to the run off with the PdL challenger. Centre-left is around 10% ahead.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 24, 2013, 06:41:38 AM
Enrico Letta, Prime Minister-designate


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 24, 2013, 10:09:35 AM
And Letta's family has close ties to Berlusconi. His uncle is described as Silvio's "right hand man."


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 24, 2013, 01:51:31 PM
A former DC.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Famous Mortimer on April 25, 2013, 07:50:03 AM
Not just a former DC, a former head of the EPP youth wing.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 25, 2013, 07:59:45 AM
To be fair, at least he can hopefully "build bridges" and he probably won't be as partisan as some others.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 25, 2013, 12:45:42 PM
"Silvio Berlusconi is the real winner." - Vendola

Vendola also said he won't support Letta.

Berlusconi is in Dallas today for the Bush Library Dedication.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 25, 2013, 03:03:11 PM
"Silvio Berlusconi is the real winner." - Vendola

The only politician with a brain in this f**king country.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on April 26, 2013, 06:38:38 AM
Berlusconi’s Lead Widens as Gap With PD Doubles in Italy Poll
By Lorenzo Totaro
April 26 (Bloomberg) -- Former PM Berlusconi’s lead over Democratic Party’s bloc increased to 5.6 pps vs 2.8 pps last week, Trieste, Italy-based SWG pollster says in survey distributed by e-mail.
Berlusconi’s coalition at 34% vs 33.8% last week: SWG
PD and allies at 28.4% vs 31% last week: SWG
Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement at 25.5% vs 24% last week: SWG
PM Monti’s centrist parties at 8.1% vs 7.7% last week: SWG
Poll conducted April 22-23 on 1,500 intws: statement


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on April 27, 2013, 10:46:24 AM
Deputy PM and Home Office: Angelino Alfano (PDL)
Economy: Fabrizio Saccomanni (director of Bank of Italy)
Development: Flavio Zanonato (PD)
Transports: Maurizio Lupi (PDL)
Health: Beatrice Lorenzin (PDL)
Justice: Anna Maria Cancellieri (Home Office Sec under Monti)
Work: Enrico Giovannini (National Statistics Institute President)
Education: Maria Chiara Carrozza (PD, Rector of a University)
Culture, Tourism: Massimo Bray (PD)
Agriculture: Nunzia di Girolamo (PDL)
Environment: Andrea Orlando (PD)
Foreign: Emma Bonino
Defence: Mario Mauro (Monti's List, former PDL)
EU Affairs: Enzo Monavero Milanesi (same position held under Monti)
Regional Affairs: Graziano Del Rio (PD)
Territorial Cohesion: Carlo Trigilia
Relationship with Parliamenet : Dario Franceschini (PD)
Reforms: Gaetano Quagliariello (PDL)
Integration: Cécile Kyenge Kashetu (PD)
Equal Rights, Youth, Sport: Josefa Idem (PD, former Olympic Gold)
Public Administraton: Giampiero D’Alia (UDC)

Under Secretary to the Presidency: Patroni Griffi (Public Administration Secretary under Monti)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: politicus on April 27, 2013, 10:50:24 AM
Deputy PM and Home Office: Angelino Alfano (PDL)
Economy: Fabrizio Saccomanni (director of Bank of Italy)
Development: Flavio Zanonato (PD)
Transports: Maurizio Lupi (PDL)
Health: Beatrice Lorenzin (PDL)
Justice: Anna Maria Cancellieri (Home Office Sec under Monti)
Work: Enrico Giovannini (National Statistics Institute President)
Education: Maria Chiara Carrozza (PD, Rector of a University)
Culture, Tourism: Massimo Bray (PD)
Agriculture: Nunzia di Girolamo (PDL)
Environment: Andrea Orlando (PD)
Foreign: Emma Bonino
Defence: Mario Mauro (Monti's List, former PDL)
EU Affairs: Enzo Monavero Milanesi (same position held under Monti)
Regional Affairs: Graziano Del Rio (PD)
Social Cohesion: Carlo Trigilia
Relationship with Parliamenet : Dario Franceschini (PD)
Reforms: Gaetano Quagliariello (PDL)
Integration: Cécile Kyenge Kashetu (PD)
Equal Rights, Youth, Sport: Josefa Idem (PD, former Olympic Gold)
Public Administraton: Giampiero D’Alia (UDC)

Under Secretary to the Presidency: Patroni Griffi (Public Administration Secretary under Monti)

Are any of them any good?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 27, 2013, 11:14:18 AM
Bonino. Disgusting.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 27, 2013, 03:30:53 PM
Deputy PM and Home Office: Angelino Alfano (PDL)
Economy: Fabrizio Saccomanni (director of Bank of Italy)
Development: Flavio Zanonato (PD)
Transports: Maurizio Lupi (PDL)
Health: Beatrice Lorenzin (PDL)
Justice: Anna Maria Cancellieri (Home Office Sec under Monti)
Work: Enrico Giovannini (National Statistics Institute President)
Education: Maria Chiara Carrozza (PD, Rector of a University)
Culture, Tourism: Massimo Bray (PD)
Agriculture: Nunzia di Girolamo (PDL)
Environment: Andrea Orlando (PD)
Foreign: Emma Bonino
Defence: Mario Mauro (Monti's List, former PDL)
EU Affairs: Enzo Monavero Milanesi (same position held under Monti)
Regional Affairs: Graziano Del Rio (PD)
Territorial Cohesion: Carlo Trigilia
Relationship with Parliamenet : Dario Franceschini (PD)
Reforms: Gaetano Quagliariello (PDL)
Integration: Cécile Kyenge Kashetu (PD)
Equal Rights, Youth, Sport: Josefa Idem (PD, former Olympic Gold)
Public Administraton: Giampiero D’Alia (UDC)

Under Secretary to the Presidency: Patroni Griffi (Public Administration Secretary under Monti)

()


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on April 27, 2013, 03:51:32 PM
Deputy PM and Home Office: Angelino Alfano (PDL)
Economy: Fabrizio Saccomanni (director of Bank of Italy)
Development: Flavio Zanonato (PD)
Transports: Maurizio Lupi (PDL)
Health: Beatrice Lorenzin (PDL)
Justice: Anna Maria Cancellieri (Home Office Sec under Monti)
Work: Enrico Giovannini (National Statistics Institute President)
Education: Maria Chiara Carrozza (PD, Rector of a University)
Culture, Tourism: Massimo Bray (PD)
Agriculture: Nunzia di Girolamo (PDL)
Environment: Andrea Orlando (PD)
Foreign: Emma Bonino
Defence: Mario Mauro (Monti's List, former PDL)
EU Affairs: Enzo Monavero Milanesi (same position held under Monti)
Regional Affairs: Graziano Del Rio (PD)
Territorial Cohesion: Carlo Trigilia
Relationship with Parliamenet : Dario Franceschini (PD)
Reforms: Gaetano Quagliariello (PDL)
Integration: Cécile Kyenge Kashetu (PD)
Equal Rights, Youth, Sport: Josefa Idem (PD, former Olympic Gold)
Public Administraton: Giampiero D’Alia (UDC)

Under Secretary to the Presidency: Patroni Griffi (Public Administration Secretary under Monti)

()

:D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 27, 2013, 04:02:43 PM

Your question is irrelevant, because even if the PD managed to sneak in one or two half-decent people, nothing good will ever come from such government.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 28, 2013, 04:55:44 AM
Hereby endorsing the Movimento Cinque Stelle for the next election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 28, 2013, 05:47:56 AM
It looks like there has been a shooting in front of the Italian Parliament.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 28, 2013, 05:51:51 AM
2 Carabinieri and 1 other person wounded.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 28, 2013, 07:50:09 AM
I believe this happened while Letta's government was officially being unveiled.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 28, 2013, 03:09:33 PM
Hereby endorsing the Movimento Cinque Stelle for the next election.

^^^^^^^^ Same here.

Though I'm still open to supporting SEL if they don't go with PD.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 28, 2013, 03:16:23 PM
I'll stick with PD... if they nominate Renzi. Otherwise not endorsing anyone.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 28, 2013, 05:20:27 PM
I'll stick with PD... if they nominate Renzi or someone new. Otherwise not endorsing anyone SEL.

Never thought I'd say that. But no way I'll support the clown.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on April 28, 2013, 05:26:38 PM
Probably SEL or Civil Revolution depending on how close the former remains to this monstrosity of a coalition.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 28, 2013, 05:56:32 PM
What are the chances SEL joins Civil Revolution? Seems like the a logical step. Vendola already said he won't support Letta. That could have been the final straw even if PD runs Renzi next time (and I believe Vendola has issues with Renzi anyway).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RodPresident on April 28, 2013, 08:00:37 PM
I support Grillo as he's only candidate who promises to deliver a real change.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Sir John Johns on April 28, 2013, 08:13:56 PM
How did the Lega Nord react on the formation of the Letta government? They should feel betrayed by Berlusconi, shouldn't? More generally speaking, which parties supported the new cabinet - apart of PD, PdL, SC and UDC?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on April 29, 2013, 02:44:36 PM
MPs present:623
MPs voting: 606
Abstentions: 17
Yes 453
No 153

Lega abstained


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 29, 2013, 03:25:36 PM
Let the countdown begin.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: batmacumba on May 01, 2013, 03:48:05 PM
What are the chances SEL joins Civil Revolution? Seems like the a logical step. Vendola already said he won't support Letta. That could have been the final straw even if PD runs Renzi next time (and I believe Vendola has issues with Renzi anyway).

Is this some kind of oriundi collective subconscient? Everytime I have something to say about Italy, either you've already said or endorse it.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: politicus on May 01, 2013, 04:17:22 PM

Six months? Or what do you guys think?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on May 02, 2013, 06:36:19 AM
Civic Revolution disbanded today


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 02, 2013, 03:32:46 PM

The thing to follow will be the polling curves. When PdL grows a 10 point lead, you can be sure Berslusconi's gonna pull the plug.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 03, 2013, 09:00:33 AM
What are the chances SEL joins Civil Revolution? Seems like the a logical step. Vendola already said he won't support Letta. That could have been the final straw even if PD runs Renzi next time (and I believe Vendola has issues with Renzi anyway).

Is this some kind of oriundi collective subconscient? Everytime I have something to say about Italy, either you've already said or endorse it.

:D

Why the hell did Civil Revolution disband? Didn't they stand the chance to seriously benefit from all of this?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 03, 2013, 03:14:28 PM
What are the chances SEL joins Civil Revolution? Seems like the a logical step. Vendola already said he won't support Letta. That could have been the final straw even if PD runs Renzi next time (and I believe Vendola has issues with Renzi anyway).

Is this some kind of oriundi collective subconscient? Everytime I have something to say about Italy, either you've already said or endorse it.

:D

Why the hell did Civil Revolution disband? Didn't they stand the chance to seriously benefit from all of this?

They failed miserably in the last elections for a reason...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on May 03, 2013, 04:27:17 PM

The thing to follow will be the polling curves. When PdL grows a 10 point lead, you can be sure Berslusconi's gonna pull the plug.

Well that won't happen as long as PdL is in a grand coalition. The only one who might get a 10-point lead in a near future will be Grillo.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 03, 2013, 05:08:49 PM

The thing to follow will be the polling curves. When PdL grows a 10 point lead, you can be sure Berslusconi's gonna pull the plug.

Well that won't happen as long as PdL is in a grand coalition. The only one who might get a 10-point lead in a near future will be Grillo.

PdL was in a grand coalition during the Monti government, and yet they went from a 15-point deficit to a tie.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 03, 2013, 05:19:13 PM
So long as SB's fingerprints aren't visibly on anything unpopular, he won't take a hit.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on May 03, 2013, 05:20:52 PM

The thing to follow will be the polling curves. When PdL grows a 10 point lead, you can be sure Berslusconi's gonna pull the plug.

Well that won't happen as long as PdL is in a grand coalition. The only one who might get a 10-point lead in a near future will be Grillo.

PdL was in a grand coalition during the Monti government, and yet they went from a 15-point deficit to a tie.

Yes but only after they pulled the plug on Monti, and they were  only able to run against that goverment because they only supported it, not took part in it. It'll be harder to run against a goverment that they took part in.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on May 06, 2013, 05:29:07 AM

The thing to follow will be the polling curves. When PdL grows a 10 point lead, you can be sure Berslusconi's gonna pull the plug.

Well that won't happen as long as PdL is in a grand coalition. The only one who might get a 10-point lead in a near future will be Grillo.

PdL was in a grand coalition during the Monti government, and yet they went from a 15-point deficit to a tie.

Yes but only after they pulled the plug on Monti, and they were  only able to run against that goverment because they only supported it, not took part in it. It'll be harder to run against a goverment that they took part in.
You forget that voters are morons. Even moreso, it seems, Italian ones...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 06, 2013, 07:34:02 AM
Worth mentioning here, too: Giulio Andreotti, possibly the only more controversial figure than Berlusconi in Italian politics, has died at the age of 94.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2013, 07:36:28 AM
Genuinely funny man as well. Sometimes even intentionally.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2013, 11:10:03 AM
Centre-left incumbent held Udine mayorality in the run off

PD-SEL & Co 54.69%
PDL-Lega-UDC&Co 45.31%

Turnout dropped from 60.57% to 48.4%.

2 weeks ago Centre-Left got 21,408 votes and Centre-Right 16,574.

In the run off, Centre-Left 20,631 and Centre-Right 17,094.

It looks like Grillini (14.67% on first round) didn't vote this time and there has been little movements between the 2 main blocks.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 06, 2013, 11:43:59 AM
Will our resident Italians please fill us in on the Rome Mayoral election? Can Alemanno hang on? Is he favored?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2013, 12:03:59 PM
I've found 2 polls

Datamonitor: Marino 37% Alemanno 32% De Vito (5 Stars) 17% Marchini (Independent) 10%
Spincon: Marino 34.8% Alemanno 30% De Vito 18.9% Marchini 11.2%

They didn't test a run off.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 06, 2013, 01:29:49 PM
Thanks! Would be cool to have someone with a strong Philadelphia connection as Mayor there but I'm hoping Alemanno can hang on.

Isn't Marchini from the right?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 06, 2013, 01:35:51 PM
Like Thatcher, Andreotti's legacy is alive and well, depressingly.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 08, 2013, 12:55:34 PM
Berlusconi gets sentenced to 4 years for his media charges, but can still appeal to the Court of Cassation.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 08, 2013, 01:17:52 PM
Berlusconi gets sentenced to 4 years for his media charges, but can still appeal to the Court of Cassation.

He'll probably force PD to pass a law to save his ass. These f**king idiots are f**kingly idiotic enough to go along.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on May 08, 2013, 01:34:42 PM
Berlusconi gets sentenced to 4 years for his media charges, but can still appeal to the Court of Cassation.

He'll probably force PD to pass a law to save his ass. These f**king idiots are f**kingly idiotic enough to go along.

On the slim chance PD have a shred of moral integrity, and don't, we'd then be looking at a collapse of this monstrosity of a coalition before it even began. It'd be absolutely toxic for their supporters, no? Surely self-preservation could force a moral stand?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 08, 2013, 04:54:38 PM
Berlusconi gets sentenced to 4 years for his media charges, but can still appeal to the Court of Cassation.

He'll probably force PD to pass a law to save his ass. These f**king idiots are f**kingly idiotic enough to go along.

On the slim chance PD have a shred of moral integrity, and don't, we'd then be looking at a collapse of this monstrosity of a coalition before it even began. It'd be absolutely toxic for their supporters, no? Surely self-preservation could force a moral stand?

I'd like to think so as well, but remember the PD base overwhelmingly supported Rodotà too..


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on May 08, 2013, 08:18:11 PM
Recommended course of action if they do support Berlusconi:
()


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 08, 2013, 08:24:32 PM
Remember that he has a final appeal, which could take some time. Depends when the next election is and who wins it, since I doubt the coalition will break their promise to Napolitano. At least not for the next months.



Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 08, 2013, 10:35:28 PM
Recommended course of action if they do support Berlusconi:
()

Really, this applies to the entire Italian political class.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 09, 2013, 11:32:42 AM
Recommended course of action if they do support Berlusconi:
()

Really, this applies to the entire Italian political class.
Minus Vendola and maybe a few young PDers.  But yes, it's true.  How about the French one too, while we're at it?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 09, 2013, 03:01:26 PM
Recommended course of action if they do support Berlusconi:
()

Really, this applies to the entire Italian political class.
Minus Vendola and maybe a few young PDers.  But yes, it's true.  How about the French one too, while we're at it?

No comparison.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 10, 2013, 12:31:32 PM
Letta's constitutional commission is DOA, the proposed reforms will have to go through Parliament instead. Meanwhile PD is increasingly Balkanized and they're electing former labour federation chief Guglielmo Epifani as interim leader till the fall convention. Joke government, and Berlusconi continues to pull away in the polls. Now lead 35-29.

http://albertonardelli.tumblr.com/post/50098245935/the-biggest-political-story-in-italy-right-now


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2013, 01:59:56 PM
Berlusconi’s Lead Widens in Italy Poll of Voting Intentions
By Chiara Vasarri
May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Former PM Berlusconi’s lead over Democratic Party’s bloc and its allies increased to 5.7 pps vs 4.1 pps last week, Trieste, Italy-based SWG pollster says in survey distributed by e-mail. • Berlusconi’s coalition at 35.9% vs 34.2% last week: SWG • PD and allies at 30.2% vs 30.1% last week: SWG • Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement at 21.8% vs 23.7% last week: SWG • Former PM Monti’s centrist parties at 7.1% vs 7.7% last week: SWG • Poll conducted May 7-8 on 1,500  

I wonder at some stage Berlusconi will create a crisis in such a way as to make it look like PD is not being reasnable (like the real estate tax rebate) to force another election so he can then sweep to power.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 10, 2013, 05:38:22 PM
Looks like his legal problems still aren't hurting him.

Glad to see Monti's coalition continuing to plummet. Still would like an idea about what he will do. At this point, the 7% has to be the standard total amount that UdC and other centrist parties receive each election. Monti can't be bringing in much of anything on his own anymore. Here's hoping they all run separately.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 10, 2013, 05:44:27 PM
Looks like his legal problems still aren't hurting him.

Well, duh. At this point, news about Berlusconi being sentenced to prison is like news about Sarah Palin saying something stupid. Those who could have abandoned him because of this already abandoned him a long time ago.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 17, 2013, 09:56:06 AM
Prodi has reportedly left the PD.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 17, 2013, 08:28:26 PM

Haha. Wow. And going to...?

Anyway, a little over a week away from Rome's Mayoral election. Any developments?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 18, 2013, 09:47:06 PM

Wow, well done. He's far too good for this bunch of morons.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 22, 2013, 12:24:57 PM
The government is aiming for changes to the electoral law to be passed by July 31st.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 22, 2013, 12:34:15 PM
The government is aiming for changes to the electoral law to be passed by July 31st.

Which are?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 22, 2013, 12:52:33 PM
The government is aiming for changes to the electoral law to be passed by July 31st.

Which are?

Didn't read. Just wanted to report the headline. I figured you or Tony would give a run down anyway. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 22, 2013, 05:31:14 PM
The government is aiming for changes to the electoral law to be passed by July 31st.

Which are?

They'll make Berlusconi President for life.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on May 23, 2013, 03:29:53 PM
Main cities voting during the weekend

Rome (held by Centre-Right) *
Brescia (CR) *
Lodi (CL)
Sondrio (CL) *
Treviso (CR)
Vicenza (CL) *
Imperia (CR)
Massa (CL)
Pisa (CL) *
Siena (CL)
Ancona (Cl)
Viterbo (CR) *
Isernia  (CL)
Avellino (CL)
Barletta (CL)
Catania (CR) *
Messina (CR)
Siracusa (CR)
Iglesias (CR)


*=incumbents re-standing


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on May 24, 2013, 07:31:09 AM
Latest SWG poll.  Has Berlusconi’s coalition at 36.2%, PD and allies at 28.9%, Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement at 22.6%, and former PM Monti’s centrist parties at 6.9%. 

I wonder if this type of lead by Berlusconi would be enough to get him a Senete Majority in an early election.  For sure this type of swing should be enough for Berlusconi to win in places like Piedmont, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, and Lazio which should net him 22-23 Senete seats right there due to bonus effects.  Increased vote shares in other places should net him another 10-15 seats with a 7% lead.  Only tricky part is how many seats Grillo could get which really is a function of the distribution of his vote. 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 24, 2013, 08:13:21 AM
Let's go Alemanno! :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on May 26, 2013, 04:01:12 PM
At the end of first day of voting, average turnout 44.66% vs 60% last time.
In Rome it's down from 57.2 to 37.69


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on May 27, 2013, 07:29:54 AM
There were also regional elections in Valle d'Aosta. They voted only on Sunday. So we already have the final results

Union Valdôtaine 33.47% (44.38% in 2008)
Stella Alpina 12.25% (11.39%)
Fédération Autonomiste 2.18% (6.17%)

Total Autonomist Coalition 47.9% (61.95%)

Union Valdotaine Progressiste  19.21%
Autonomie Liberté Participation Écologie 12.41% (12.49%)
PD 8.88% (9.31%)

Total Progressist Coalition 40.5% (27.4%)

5 Stelle 6.62%
 
PDL 4.11% (10.65%)

LeALI 0.86%

Seats:

Union Valdôtaine 13 + Stella Alpina 5 = 18
Union Valdotaine Progressiste 7 + Autonomie Liberté Participation Écologie 5 + PD 3 = 15

5 Stars 2

PdL 0

Turnout 73.03%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on May 27, 2013, 09:04:11 AM
First Rai projection for Rome

Marino 39.2% Alemanno 32.2% 5 Stars 12.8% Marchini 9.5%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 27, 2013, 09:08:42 AM
Seven points isn't too bad for Alemanno, right?

Last time around, Alemanno had 41% to Rutelli's 46% in the first round. That race didn't include M5S or other major minor party candidates.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 27, 2013, 10:06:31 AM
Second projection has Marino up to 42%.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: palandio on May 27, 2013, 10:12:07 AM
It's not too good either.

In 2008 Rutelli's lists got 716,099 votes, Rutelli himself 761,126 votes, that's 45,027 more.
Alemanno's lists got 607,864 votes, Alemanno himself 677,350 votes, that's 69,486 more.
Keep an eye on these numbers this time. It's a sign for the candidate's personal strength. Rutelli was relatively weak.

In 2008 the strongest minor party candidate was Storace with 3.3%. Storace and Alemanno are ideologically and historically very similar ("Social Right", i.e. post-fascism), so I guess most of these 3.3% went to Alemanno in the run-off.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 27, 2013, 10:22:58 AM
Alemanno obviously needs M5S voters, too, but aren't Marchini voters very likely to go his way? Wasn't he in Berlusconi's government?

I know this annoyed people when I suggested Calcio's role in the Parliamentary elections but could the Final/another Rome Derby have had a big impact on turnout?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on May 27, 2013, 11:16:32 AM
It looks like that Marino's lead is now estimated at 10% which is quite sizeable.

but aren't Marchini voters very likely to go his way? Wasn't he in Berlusconi's government?

No. But Marchini seems one of those people who is in touch with all high profile powerful men around (Caltagirone, Vatica, CL, Opus Dei, D'Alema, Gianni Letta)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 27, 2013, 01:05:47 PM
I've been told by someone involved in one of the two major parties that M5S Rome will not back Marino and it's a wait and see situation with Marchini. Any Italians here able to comment on that?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on May 27, 2013, 01:57:17 PM
M5S don't usually endorse anyone as they are all bad. So I wouldn't expect them to back anyone in the run off.

Marchini says he will judget manifestos. There're 15 days left and so lots of time to study them according to him.

Projections now giving Marino a 12% lead.

Centre-left can hold 4-5 "capoluoghi" today. Everything else will go to run off, generally with CL ahead.

Ancona is a bit meah for PD. They are favourite in the run off but % is quite bad for them there.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Hash on May 27, 2013, 02:56:46 PM
Is it me, or do these results look pretty decent for the left?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on May 27, 2013, 04:22:10 PM
Counting (actually reporting) seems slower than usual, isn't it?

In some places PD is mediocre but PDL managed to do even worse and there has not been a 5 Stars breakthrough.

Centre-Left should have held Pisa, Massa, Imola, Sondrio and Vicenza without needing a run off. I am still puzzled on why PD actually held Vicenza in first place!

Good Centre-Left showing in Imperia (and without SEL). And they are ahead also in Treviso against Gentilini.

With PDL, I guess we should go back to the fact that PdL is Silvio and its success is Silvio's success. So they don't have a good school of boring but worthy local administrators. Hence, if there are no national issues to protest about (aka not the left ruling alone), it tends to implode at local level.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 27, 2013, 08:12:39 PM
So they don't have a good school of boring but worthy local administrators. Hence, if there are no national issues to protest about (aka not the left ruling alone), it tends to implode at local level.

I was going to say, all of these poor local and regional election results for PdL ever since they spiked in the national polling seems strange. This makes perfect sense though.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 27, 2013, 08:19:02 PM
By the way, Alemanno has said the Derby was a distraction.  :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 27, 2013, 11:02:58 PM
Is it me, or do these results look pretty decent for the left?

Looks so, yeah. It's undeserved, but I'll take what I have at this point.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on May 28, 2013, 12:33:58 AM
PD & Co also held Isernia with 50.54%. Good for them as the candidate was running way below his supporting party lists and so he could have had trouble in a run off where the focus is more on candidates rather than lists.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on May 28, 2013, 10:22:10 AM
Mayoral elections....I list just municipalities which are "capoluogo" (they give the name to the province, usually the largest town in the area).

Sondrio: CL 53.8% CR 20.91% Lega 7.87% Local list 6.69% 5S 5.94%
Vicenza: CL 53.47% CR 27.38% 5 Stars 6.5%
Massa: CL 54.17% Centre 18.79% 5 Stars 12.01% PDL 5.29%
Pisa: CL 53.48% CR 12.66% 5 Stars 10.49% Right 9.98% Left 8.08%
Isernia: CL 50.54% CR 42.95%

Run offs on June 9-10:
Brescia: CL 38.06% CR 38% (5 Stars 7.29%)
Lodi: CL 43.3% CR 34.48% (5 Stars 6.36%)
Treviso: CL 42.53% CR 34.82% (5Stars 6.91%)
Imperia: CL 46.83% CR 28.2% (Left 11.24% 5Stars 9.02%)
Siena: CL 39.54% CR 23.37% (Left 10.29% 5 Stars 8.56%)
Ancona: CL 37.65% CR 20.52% (5 Stars 15.02% Left 9.54%)
Roma: CL 42.6% CR 30.27% (5 Stars 12.43% Indy 9.48%)
Viterbo: CL 35.85% CR 25.17% (5 Stars 6.9%)
Avellino: CL 25.31% Centre 23.03% (CR 16.55% 5 Stars 5.7%)
Barletta: CL 43.68% CR 26.88% (Socialists 17.6 5 Stars 8.16%)
Iglesias: CL 49.52% CR 45.53%

Trevisto, Brescia, Imperia, Rome and Viterbo were held by CR, the rest by CL. In Sondrio, Vicenza, Brescia, Rome, Viterbo and Pisa the incumbent mayor was restanding (there's the 2 consecutive terms limit)

CL= centre-left CR= centre-right 5Stars= Grillo
The remaining % are local lists or fringe parties




Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 28, 2013, 02:36:45 PM
Well, if you're Alemanno, you can at least be thankful your situation isn't as bad as the Mayor of Viterbo. Without a strong Indepdent running, I assume Monti's party or some local fringe party did very well. Guess most of those votes will flow the the center-right.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on May 28, 2013, 08:33:45 PM
Well, if you're Alemanno, you can at least be thankful your situation isn't as bad as the Mayor of Viterbo. Without a strong Indepdent running, I assume Monti's party or some local fringe party did very well. Guess most of those votes will flow the the center-right.

Both of them will likely lose the run-off, so I don't think he should be thankful...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on May 29, 2013, 09:23:25 AM
In Sulmona there's a dead man in the run off.

Franceschini's girlfriend has been elected to Rome city council (she's 8th among PD councillors candidates. PD would get 9 seats even if Marino loses the run off.).
In both PD and Marino's list, a candidate called Marino got most preferences. I guess some got confused and wrote Marino thinking about the mayoral candidate...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 01, 2013, 05:05:12 PM
Renzi is willing to run for the PD secretariat. We knew that already, but still 8).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 02, 2013, 02:54:39 AM
Renzi is willing to run for the PD secretariat. We knew that already, but still 8).

Great news indeed! Listened to him recently, and really he's miles away from nearly every other politician (in rhetoric and attitude at least).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 02, 2013, 11:09:47 AM
Renzi wants a birthright citizenship law. (http://www.agi.it/english-version/all/elenco-notizie/201306021223-pol-ren1022-new_naturalisation_law_needed_says_florence_mayor?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 02, 2013, 11:38:11 AM
Renzi wants a birthright citizenship law. (http://www.agi.it/english-version/all/elenco-notizie/201306021223-pol-ren1022-new_naturalisation_law_needed_says_florence_mayor?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)

Good for him, though it obviously won't pass. Good way for PdL to court Grillist votes, too.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 02, 2013, 02:20:33 PM
Happy Republic Day!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 02, 2013, 02:46:00 PM

:)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on June 10, 2013, 03:58:59 AM
Results for run offs and Sicilian first rounds today.

At 10 PM last night turnout was dreadful in some places. On average it's at 33.87% for run offs compared to 42.38% 2 weeks ago.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on June 10, 2013, 08:28:39 AM
La7 Instant Poll gives a 60-40% split in Marino's favour in Rome. Piepoli's poll has a 55-45 split

Turnout in 40s.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 10, 2013, 08:29:12 AM
Yeah, I was just coming here to post that. :(


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 10, 2013, 08:58:23 AM
It's now up to 64%-36%.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on June 10, 2013, 09:07:04 AM
Siena  was very close at one point. Now with 35 polling places out of 50 counted, PD is leading 52.7% to 48.3%. It should be enough to hang on

PD to gain Brescia, Treviso and Viterbo.

Ahead 53 to 47% in Lodi with over 2/3 counted.

Big lead for PD in Ancona. Barletta too last time I checked

PD gain Imperia with 76% of the vote!!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 10, 2013, 09:15:25 AM
Wow. How does the center-right almost gain Siena but get blown out elsewhere?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on June 10, 2013, 11:34:46 AM
Wow. How does the center-right almost gain Siena but get blown out elsewhere?

The Monte dei Paschi banking scandal in Siena.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on June 10, 2013, 11:55:37 AM
Brescia
CL 56.53% CR 43.47%
Turnout 59.27%

Lodi
CL 53.62% CR 46.38%
Turnout 53.08%

Treviso
CL 55.5% CR 44.5%
Turnout 58.61%

Imperia
CL 76.14 CR 23.86
Turnout 52.98

Siena
CL 52% CR 48%
Turnout 54.97%

Ancona
CL 62.59 CR 37.41
Turnout 41.97

Rome
CL 63.93 CR 36.07
Turnout 45.05

Viterbo
CL 62.86 CR 37.14
Turnout 50.59

Avellino
CL 60.57 CR 39.43
Turnout 53.91

Barletta
CL 62.89 CR 37.11
Turnout 49.44

Iglesias
CL 51.68 CR 48.32
Turnout 57.81%

Waiting for Sicily now....


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 10, 2013, 11:59:59 AM
Wow. How does the center-right almost gain Siena but get blown out elsewhere?

The Monte dei Paschi banking scandal in Siena.

Oh right. Still would have been funny to see all of these center-left wins but a loss in Tuscany, of all places.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 10, 2013, 01:27:16 PM
Supposedly, one of the Siena candidates in the first round was a former PdL councilman that told his voters not to vote in the second round. He received 2,000 votes in the first round. The center-right lost the runoff by just 1,000.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on June 10, 2013, 05:26:23 PM

Doesn't seem better for the right.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 10, 2013, 06:00:22 PM
16/16! That's good to see. :)

Though of course it changes nothing to the fact Italy is screwed.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on June 10, 2013, 06:03:14 PM
16/16! That's good to see. :)

Though of course it changes nothing to the fact Italy is screwed.

Well, M5S seems to be exploding and the left will have another chance to get together at the fall.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 10, 2013, 07:15:25 PM
National polls aren't looking any better for the center-left though. Of course, Renzi as the leader will likely change all of that but we'll see.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 10, 2013, 07:16:33 PM
M5S imploding? That's fantastic news but PD has to capitalize on that properly.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: MaxQue on June 10, 2013, 11:00:52 PM
In English, Grillo insulting Rodota: http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/48517/Grillo-slams-5-Star-Movement-s-presidential-candidate.html (http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/48517/Grillo-slams-5-Star-Movement-s-presidential-candidate.html)
In Italian, MPs leaving the party: http://www.repubblica.it/politica/2013/06/07/news/m5s_di_maio_basta_gossippari_a_montecitorio-60571133/ (http://www.repubblica.it/politica/2013/06/07/news/m5s_di_maio_basta_gossippari_a_montecitorio-60571133/)

And municipal results are quite bad, compared to April.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on June 11, 2013, 03:56:48 AM
Bianco took back Catania for PD.

Maybe PD got Messina in first round too. They claim to be at 50.02 in their unofficial count. So things can change a bit once official figures will be released. PdL eliminated anyway.

Ragusa is a PD-M5S run off.

Official PDL eliminated in Siracusa too. A local list with some PDL splinters go to the run off with PD


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on June 11, 2013, 07:33:11 AM
Were all these councils PD-favored to begin with ? Because it seems odd that with the national polling going on and what we know of the situation the PdL wasn't able to gain a single one of all these. O_o'


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on June 11, 2013, 07:44:47 AM
PD candidate at 49.94% in Messina in the end. So run off required. He's well ahead of the other candidate but he has performed much worse than the lists supporting him.


Were all these councils PD-favored to begin with ? Because it seems odd that with the national polling going on and what we know of the situation the PdL wasn't able to gain a single one of all these. O_o'

Imperia, Treviso, Brescia, Viterbo and Rome were PD gains.

Some of them were Right strongholds (Imperia, Treviso, Viterbo). Some others (for ex Brescia and Lodi) are usually pretty marginal at mayoral level.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 11, 2013, 07:46:26 AM
At first glance, it does seem strange since PdL has a nice lead nationally and PD is a mess. Plus, I believe the center-left already held most of these but local scandals cost the center-right. Plus, it's been established that while the country will vote for PdL in national elections because of Berlusconi, his influence doesn't trickle down to the local level anymore and relying on Silvio only does so much anyway. You need the party to be more than just him. Supposedly, a lot of these candidates sucked.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 21, 2013, 11:07:30 AM
I know it's been hinted at before but Renzi actually said "I will be the new Tony Blair." Wanted to post it here to see some heads spin. ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 21, 2013, 11:19:51 AM
He must be confident about his level of support, since the left-wingers probably aren't amused by such statements. Otherwise :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 21, 2013, 11:31:02 AM
Considering most Italian leftists are way to the right of Tony Blair, I really don't see the problem. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on June 21, 2013, 09:09:48 PM
June 14 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic Party’s bloc and former premier Berlusconi’s coalition at 34.6%, Trieste, Italy-based SWG pollster says in survey distributed by e-mail.
Berlusconi’s coalition was at 35.5% last week, while center-left bloc including PD was at 31.6%: SWG
Support for Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement drops to 17.9% from 19.9% last week: SWG

It seems that Grillo is bleeding votes to PD.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 24, 2013, 10:27:16 AM
Berlusconi has been given a 7 year prison sentence and barred from holding public office in the Ruby trial. But of course he'll have endless appeals, and probably won't overly dent his poll numbers either.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 24, 2013, 10:43:24 AM
Chances his poll numbers will jump in response to this news? Hey, remember who we're dealing with here...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on June 24, 2013, 10:45:17 AM
Hey, remember who we're dealing with here...
The Italian electorate?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 24, 2013, 10:53:33 AM

Yes. That's my argument for saying this could help him. :P


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on June 24, 2013, 11:27:55 AM

Yes. That's my argument for saying this could help him. :P
I was just making sure. You might have meant Berlusconi - not every Italian politician can get away with everything. :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: DL on June 24, 2013, 11:32:08 AM
Why does the Vatican keep telling people to vote for Berlusconi even after he's been repeatedly charged and convicted of raping child prostitutes?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Hash on June 24, 2013, 11:33:54 AM
Why does the Vatican keep telling people to vote for Berlusconi even after he's been repeatedly charged and convicted of raping child prostitutes?

The Vatican endorsed Monti.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 24, 2013, 11:43:40 AM

Yes. That's my argument for saying this could help him. :P
I was just making sure. You might have meant Berlusconi - not every Italian politician can get away with everything. :)

Well, I was talking about the Italian electorate regarding Berlusconi. I don't believe that anyone else would get as much of a pass.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on June 24, 2013, 11:47:39 AM
Nobody has ever suggested such a thing. (You are of course thinking of the frankly disgusting American legal term 'statutory rape', but 'Ruby' was above the age of consent for sex, which in Italy is 14. It is, however, illegal to pay a minor for sex. To say nothing about calling a 17 year old a 'child' or indeed calling someone a 'prostitute' who never routinely worked in the trade.)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: DL on June 24, 2013, 12:04:17 PM
Nothing surprises me with the Vatican considering how the Pope supported Hitler during World War Two


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 24, 2013, 12:58:07 PM
Nothing surprises me with the Vatican considering how the Pope supported Hitler during World War Two

Thanks for calling in.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 24, 2013, 02:13:05 PM
Nothing surprises me with the Vatican considering how the Pope supported Hitler during World War Two

To quote Urkel.

"Good Lord, read a book!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZAIlBANH-0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZAIlBANH-0)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on June 24, 2013, 02:39:29 PM
Nothing surprises me with the Vatican considering how the Pope supported Hitler during World War Two

That's hardly an uncontroversial analysis of history.

And, yeah, the Vatican's on Team Monti now.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: palandio on June 24, 2013, 04:42:34 PM
Run-offs in Sicily:

Siracusa
Garozzo (center-left) 53.30% (18,902 votes) wins against Reale (civic list) 46.70% (16,563 votes)
First round was Garozzo 31.11% (14.311), Reale 27.05% (12,440), Bandiera (center-right) 21.18% (9,741) with others below 3,000 votes each.
Incumbent was Visentin (center-right)

Ragusa
Piccitto (5 stars movement) 69.35% (20,720) wins against Cosentini (center-left) 30.65% (9,156)
First round was Cosentini 29.34% (8,877), Piccitto 15.64% (4,732), Antoci (center-right) 15.05% (4,555), Platania (civic list) 14.54% (4,400), Barone (civic list) 13.06% (3,953), Iacono (SEL) 12.36% (3,741).
Prior to the election the comune was under the administration of a commissar because the center-right administration elected in 2011 had been dissolved (guess why...)

Messina
Accorinti (left-wing indy) 52.67% (47,866) wins against Calabrò (center-left) 47.33% (43,017)
First round was Calabrò 49.94% (!!!) (40.870), Accorinti 23.88% (19,540), Garofalo (center-right) 18.49% (15,130)
Incumbent was Buzzanca (center-right).

The results from Ragusa and Messina should give big headache to the PD.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on June 24, 2013, 05:53:23 PM
These are some wild vote transfer patterns ! Wow !


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 25, 2013, 05:02:16 AM
Good. Honestly, PD did not deserve to win these elections. If they can get their ass kicked by M5S or independent left-wingers, that's perfect.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on June 25, 2013, 06:27:11 AM
Hilarious!


Title: Forza Italia returning?
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 28, 2013, 02:20:43 PM
Am I reading this correctly: Forza Italia is returning? It true, is PdL completely folding?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on July 05, 2013, 05:10:55 AM
Berlusconi’s Lead Widens in Italy Poll of Voting Intentions
By Lorenzo Totaro
July 5 (Bloomberg) -- Former PM Berlusconi’s lead over Democratic Party’s bloc and its allies increased to 4 pps vs 2.9 pps last week, Trieste, Italy-based SWG pollster says in survey distributed by e-mail. • Berlusconi’s coalition at 37.3% vs 36.1% last week: SWG • PD and allies at 33.3% vs 33.2% last week: SWG • Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement at 17.3% vs 18.1% last week: SWG • Former PM Monti’s centrist party and allies at 6.3% vs 6.6% last week: SWG • Poll conducted July 2-3 on 1,500 intws


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 05, 2013, 09:51:30 PM
Clowns and Monti continue to slide. :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on July 06, 2013, 12:45:57 PM
Good to see M5S losing support. Unfortunately Berlusconi doesn't seem to have taken any damage at all from his conviction.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: FredLindq on July 06, 2013, 01:52:37 PM
Is there still a 4% threshold for the EP elections?! Will FDI and other Centreright ally with PDL in the EP due to that?!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 06, 2013, 08:10:27 PM
Unfortunately Berlusconi doesn't seem to have taken any damage at all from his conviction.

Which isn't really surprising.

Is there still a 4% threshold for the EP elections?! Will FDI and other Centreright ally with PDL in the EP due to that?!

They're already aligned with PdL.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: FredLindq on July 07, 2013, 08:06:49 AM
Are The already aligned in The EP elections? One list with PDL-FDI-Other ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 07, 2013, 12:48:07 PM
Are The already aligned in The EP elections? One list with PDL-FDI-Other ?

Not sure but if that 4% threshold is in place, they will certainly run together.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: FredLindq on July 08, 2013, 02:23:11 AM
Will PD do the same?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on July 13, 2013, 07:02:00 AM
The latest polls from Italy: is a very close!

Demopolis: Csx + 0,1%
Tecnè: Cdx + 0,7%
Ipr: Csx +1%
Swg: Cdx + 3,1%
Piepoli: Csx + 0,5%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on July 13, 2013, 07:13:12 AM
Why exactly is it called "CSX" and "CDX", and not simply "CS" (centro-sinistra) or "CD" (centro-destra) ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on July 13, 2013, 10:06:42 AM
In Italy Centrosinistra is called CSX, Centrodestra is called CDX and Centro (Center) is called CX, but you can also use CS and CD.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 13, 2013, 10:43:38 AM
Yes but what does the "X" stand for?

By the way, it should be great having you on the Forum and specifically in this thread! :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on July 14, 2013, 04:12:31 AM
Thanks!
If you want I can continue to update this thread with the latest news from Italy!


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on July 14, 2013, 04:33:09 AM
Yesterday took place the primary, in the autonomist province of Trentino, of the autonomist coalition of centre-left (Pd --> Democratic Party, IDV --> Italy of Values, VERDI --> Federation of the Greens, PSI --> Italian Socialist Party, UPT --> Union for Trentino and PATT --> Trentino Tyrolean Autonomist Party).

This the result:

Ugo Rossi (PATT) 34,4%
Alessandro Olivi (PD) 33,8%
Mauro Gilmozzi (UPT of the incumbent governor Dellai. Dellai is a member of the parliament for Civic Choice for Italy of Monti Monti ) 28,0%
Lucia Coppola (VERDI) 1,9%
Alexander Schuster (PSI) 1,9%

Elections will be held on 27 October simultaneously whit the provincial election in the province of South Tyrol. The Regional Council of Trentino Alto Adige is composed by the elect in all the two province.

The favorite in the province of Trentino is Ugo Rossi.

Other updates for the autonomist province of South Tyrol  in the next days.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on July 15, 2013, 03:35:26 AM
On 17 and 18 November will be held in  Basilicata the regional elections.

Before:

2010 regional elections: Vito De Filippo (Cs) won with 61% of the vote (the region is "CS Solid"). Nicola Pagliuca (Cd) took 28% of the vote. Magdi Cristiano Allam (Civic List) took 9%. First party was Democratic Party, with 27%, followed by People of Freedom (19%), Italy of Values (10%) and Union of the Centre (in coalition with Democratic Party) with 7%.

In April, the president Vito De Filippo has resigned after the investigation into illegally repayments received by councilors and advisers, where is not involved.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on July 17, 2013, 11:05:11 AM
Resignation of Minister of Internal and vice-premier Angelino Alfano (Secretary of PDL, People of the Freedom).

Before:

The Minister Alfano is accused of not stopping or did not know the expulsion of wife and daughter of a dissident of Kazakhstan.
Alfano has exposed yesterday in the Senate a relation which he said he had not been informed of the incident.

SEL (Left Ecology Freedom of Nichi Vendola, governor of Apulia) and M5S (Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo) filed a motion of distrust for Alfano.
In the Democratic Party is in progress a debate on resignation of Alfano. The men close of Florence Mayor Matteo Renzi push for yes to distrust.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 17, 2013, 11:09:54 AM
:o

Is he staying on as party secretary?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on July 17, 2013, 12:30:52 PM
Yes, Angelino Alfano is the national secretary of PDL (the president is Silvio Berlusconi).
He become a member of the Letta government. He is Minister of Internal and vicepremier.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 17, 2013, 12:40:02 PM
Yes, I know he is but is he resigning that position or only resigning his government position?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on July 18, 2013, 03:57:04 AM
His resignation from his government position


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 20, 2013, 06:36:21 AM
Alfano's not resigning. The no-confidence motion failed and Berlusconi has made it clear he will stay. No idea what you are talking about, Cris.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on July 20, 2013, 06:46:54 AM

Alfano's not resigning. The no-confidence motion failed and Berlusconi has made it clear he will stay. No idea what you are talking about, Cris.


My post was of 17 July. Yesterday the Senate rejected the distrust, I was just about to write. :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on July 31, 2013, 09:02:28 AM
Tonight or tomorrow the ruling on the TV rights of Mediaset .
Berlusconi risks imprisonment and disqualification from holding public office by 3 to 5 years.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 01, 2013, 09:20:34 AM
 Per NYT, apparently a compromise ruling is being considered where Berlusconi can still remain in Parliament. (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/02/world/europe/ruling-on-berlusconi-case-by-italys-top-court-is-expected.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on August 01, 2013, 01:15:24 PM
Berlusconi : confirmed a sentence of 4 years imprisonment (it will make a year of imprisonment for the "indulto" and will serve them or under house arrest or community service). Disqualification from public office (ineligibility) to be redefined within the year, a maximum conceivable of 3 years.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 01, 2013, 01:27:05 PM
So...Berlusconi just got actually convicted of something no-take-backsies this time or is there still some other shoe out there somewhere in the Italian judicial system waiting to drop?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 01, 2013, 01:30:31 PM
What Nathan said. If this verdict is final... :)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on August 01, 2013, 01:35:19 PM
This verdect is the final.
With a year of imprisonment and the interdiction to be redefined is politically dead.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 01, 2013, 01:35:54 PM
So...Berlusconi just got actually convicted of something no-take-backsies this time or is there still some other shoe out there somewhere in the Italian judicial system waiting to drop?

From what I have heard, it seems to be mostly over for him. I guess there are a few ways out (such as a presidential pardon), but they are extremely remote.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 01, 2013, 01:36:11 PM
But isn't the "year in prison" actually going to be house arrest or community service because of his age?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on August 01, 2013, 01:39:14 PM
But isn't the "year in prison" actually going to be house arrest or community service because of his age?

Yes, sadly, which means he has to shell out some more money for additional bunga-bunga-parties if he wants to "survive" his 1-year multi-million "mansion arrest".


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 01, 2013, 01:40:46 PM
But isn't the "year in prison" actually going to be house arrest or community service because of his age?

Yes, sadly, which means he has to shell out some more money for additional bunga-bunga-parties if he wants to "survive" his 1-year multi-million "mansion arrest".

Exactly what I mentioned in another thread.  ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on August 01, 2013, 02:34:05 PM
Yeah but the ban from public office hasn't been finalized yet and the statute of limitations will probably run out before they settle on that.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on August 01, 2013, 03:31:56 PM
Looks like for now the Berlusconi bloc will continue to support the government so no new elections.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 01, 2013, 03:36:22 PM
Berlusconi said he isn't quitting and is committed to relaunching Forza Italia. Full FB statement here. Anything interesting in it, Italian-speakers? (https://www.facebook.com/SilvioBerlusconi/posts/617026504998125)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 01, 2013, 09:49:15 PM
Yeah but the ban from public office hasn't been finalized yet and the statute of limitations will probably run out before they settle on that.

Berlusconi said he isn't quitting and is committed to relaunching Forza Italia.

Oh for crying out loud.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on August 02, 2013, 06:50:29 AM
Former PM Berlusconi’s lead over Democratic Party and its allies widens to 5.5 pps vs 4.4 pps last week, Trieste, Italy-based SWG pollster says in survey distributed by e-mail.
 
•Support for parties led by Berlusconi during Feb. election rose to 37.8% vs 35.7% last week:
•Support for PD and its allies during Feb. election at 32.3% vs 31.3% last week:
•Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement at 18.2% vs 20% last week:
•Former PM Monti’s centrist party and allies at 5.6% vs 6.4% last week:
•NOTE: Poll conducted July 30-Aug. 1 on 1,500 intws •


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 02, 2013, 07:44:39 AM
Italian politics in the Second Republic has got to be some sort of sick cosmic joke. There's just no way it's not.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on August 02, 2013, 11:55:08 AM
Italian politics in the Second Republic has got to be some sort of sick cosmic joke. There's just no way it's not.
I like that word 'cosmic', it's just the way that people tend to use it that offends my sense of survival.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 02, 2013, 12:28:39 PM
Yeah but the ban from public office hasn't been finalized yet and the statute of limitations will probably run out before they settle on that.

Berlusconi said he isn't quitting and is committed to relaunching Forza Italia.

Oh for crying out loud.

If I understand correctly, the statute of limitation should not be relevant because the verdict has been pronounced once and for all; it is only the sentence that has to be redefined.

Of course, even a public office ban doesn't mean that Italian politics are finally free from Berlusconi. But it's still, by all measure, a good day for Italy.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 02, 2013, 12:56:19 PM
Alfano has told Berlusconi all the PDL ministers are ready to resign if needed, and Berlusconi said he's ready for a new election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on August 02, 2013, 01:15:59 PM
Alfano has told Berlusconi all the PDL ministers are ready to resign if needed, and Berlusconi said he's ready for a new election.

Well, the scenerio Berlusconi is most likely waiting for is first PDL will Ask for Pardon for Berlusconi, Letta says no, and then PDL quits making it look like it is the PD and allies at fault for bring down this national grand coalition government and then run on that in the election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 02, 2013, 01:19:38 PM
PdL will officially ask Napolitano for pardon, probably threatening to make the government fall. If he does, he will make it official that there is no justice in this county.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on August 02, 2013, 01:45:04 PM
Berlusconi party MPs resign to protest conviction: report
Aug. 2 (AFP) -- Lawmakers from Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom Party (PDL) tendered their resignation from Italy's parliament Friday to protest the tax fraud conviction against their leader, media reported.
News outlets in Italy reported that the MPs handed in their resignation to protest the landmark ruling against Berlusconi, who said after meeting them in Rome that his party was prepared to contest fresh polls.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 02, 2013, 01:48:12 PM
Cultists are weird.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on August 02, 2013, 04:21:22 PM
Berlusconi party MPs resign to protest conviction: report
Aug. 2 (AFP) -- Lawmakers from Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom Party (PDL) tendered their resignation from Italy's parliament Friday to protest the tax fraud conviction against their leader, media reported.
News outlets in Italy reported that the MPs handed in their resignation to protest the landmark ruling against Berlusconi, who said after meeting them in Rome that his party was prepared to contest fresh polls.

Why would PDL members give up their careers for Berlusconi? It just seems stupid.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on August 02, 2013, 04:41:16 PM
Berlusconi party MPs resign to protest conviction: report
Aug. 2 (AFP) -- Lawmakers from Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom Party (PDL) tendered their resignation from Italy's parliament Friday to protest the tax fraud conviction against their leader, media reported.
News outlets in Italy reported that the MPs handed in their resignation to protest the landmark ruling against Berlusconi, who said after meeting them in Rome that his party was prepared to contest fresh polls.

Because they believe, with reason, that they will be reelected with a larger share of the vote than back in Feb 2013 riding the oppressed political oppisition narrative.  They are ahead in the polls now so why not.
Why would PDL members give up their careers for Berlusconi? It just seems stupid.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on August 02, 2013, 04:47:09 PM
Berlusconi party MPs resign to protest conviction: report
Aug. 2 (AFP) -- Lawmakers from Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom Party (PDL) tendered their resignation from Italy's parliament Friday to protest the tax fraud conviction against their leader, media reported.
News outlets in Italy reported that the MPs handed in their resignation to protest the landmark ruling against Berlusconi, who said after meeting them in Rome that his party was prepared to contest fresh polls.

Why would PDL members give up their careers for Berlusconi? It just seems stupid.

Because they believe, with reason, that they will be reelected with a larger share of the vote than back in Feb 2013 riding the oppressed political opposition narrative.  They are ahead in the polls now so why not.

Yeah, I suppose but I still wouldn't risk it. It's not like Berlusconi could be the only capable center-right leader out there.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 02, 2013, 08:48:39 PM
What is the actual likelihood of a pardon? (I know Napolitano is considered principled, but how principled is Napolitano considered?)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on August 03, 2013, 04:43:47 AM
Berlusconi party MPs resign to protest conviction: report
Aug. 2 (AFP) -- Lawmakers from Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom Party (PDL) tendered their resignation from Italy's parliament Friday to protest the tax fraud conviction against their leader, media reported.
News outlets in Italy reported that the MPs handed in their resignation to protest the landmark ruling against Berlusconi, who said after meeting them in Rome that his party was prepared to contest fresh polls.

Why would PDL members give up their careers for Berlusconi? It just seems stupid.
He owns their careers, he can do whatever he wants with them.

He also knows where their family live and pays their bodyguards, of course, so little danger of treason. They know the price.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on August 03, 2013, 06:11:48 AM
Berlusconi will work to be the Kakuei Tanaka of Italy by handing power to his daughter Marina Berlusconi but rule in the background assuming the Berlusconi's bloc wins the next election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 03, 2013, 03:37:06 PM
What is the actual likelihood of a pardon? (I know Napolitano is considered principled, but how principled is Napolitano considered?)

Napolitano certainly has principle, but he has shown some willingness to compromise them for "the good of the country" before. Still, I have a hard time imagining he could go that far. He literally can't find any other serious justification for pardon other than PdL's blackmail, and he would lose all the respect that most Italians had for him. I can't guarantee that there is no wishful thinking in my analysis though.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 04, 2013, 02:20:29 AM
Berlusconi will work to be the Kakuei Tanaka of Italy by handing power to his daughter Marina Berlusconi but rule in the background assuming the Berlusconi's bloc wins the next election.

That is an insult to Tanaka, and this is Tanaka I'm saying that about.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on August 04, 2013, 07:21:53 AM
Berlusconi will work to be the Kakuei Tanaka of Italy by handing power to his daughter Marina Berlusconi but rule in the background assuming the Berlusconi's bloc wins the next election.

That is an insult to Tanaka, and this is Tanaka I'm saying that about.

I would agree with you if we are talking about the personal lives of Berlusconi and Tanaka.   But in terms public life and corruption I would find Tanaka worse.  Berlusconi before 1994 mostly made his money fair and square.  Sure, there were various scams after 1994 but it has more to do with Berlusconi trying to increase his influence than him reaping economic gains.  Tanaka built a political machine starting in the 1950s and it was all based on corrupt deals based on the construction industry.  When Tanaka was nabbed in 1976 over the Lockheed scandal most people in the know believed Tanaka when he said he did not remember the details of the $3 million bribe because there so many deals where the Tanaka machine was on the take going on at the same time it was too hard for him to keep track.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 04, 2013, 10:31:34 AM
PdL is about to hold a demonstration, in half an hour.

Jaichind, even Berlusconi's activities pre-1994 were marred with corruption and malpractices of all sorts. In fact, it's almost certain the reason why he jumped into politics was in order to escape from the inquiries that were drawing closer and closer.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 04, 2013, 01:39:05 PM
Before '94 Berlusconi had a political protector, a PSI politician from Milan who's surname had five letters in it, one of which was an 'x'...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 04, 2013, 02:13:33 PM
Before '94 Berlusconi had a political protector, a PSI politician from Milan who's surname had five letters in it, one of which was an 'x'...

Yeah, Craxi saved his ass a couple times, notably by legalizing his illegal TV broadcasting activities ex post facto, back in 1984 (http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decreto_Berlusconi).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 04, 2013, 05:46:44 PM
Shortly before he fled to Tunisia, it's known that he actually gave Berlusconi some advice on how to go about becoming his own personal political protector.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 05, 2013, 09:55:04 PM
Jaichind, even Berlusconi's activities pre-1994 were marred with corruption and malpractices of all sorts. In fact, it's almost certain the reason why he jumped into politics was in order to escape from the inquiries that were drawing closer and closer.

Exactly. Tanaka and Berlusconi are/were about equally sleazy and horrible as businessmen and politicians, and Tanaka was far less sleazy and horrible as a human being outside those contexts.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: tpfkaw on August 05, 2013, 10:29:44 PM
Broadcasting satellite television channels!  What a crime against humanity!  Clearly, everyone who does such evil, evil acts should get the Iron Maiden.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Viewfromthenorth on August 06, 2013, 02:14:12 AM
Broadcasting satellite television channels!  What a crime against humanity!  Clearly, everyone who does such evil, evil acts should get the Iron Maiden.

Back in the day it was quite common for public stations to be the only ones allowed on television in Europe. The law in Italy was that local commercial TV stations were allowed, but they were not allowed to "network", which is precisely what Berlusconi did. For the next decade his stations existed in a legal limbo, for example not being allowed to broadcast live programs until 1993.

Ridiculous with hindsight, but the motivation was to make sure television was an educational medium and not all-commercial. The result of Italy's adventures in commercial broadcasting law is that Berlusconi now owns almost all of the big commercial stations in Italy, and while he was PM he of course had control of the public stations as well. That was interesting to say the least.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on August 07, 2013, 10:28:50 AM
Just ignore wormyguy. You'll get used to it.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 08, 2013, 07:23:17 AM
In other news, Italy officially has its own Dennis Rodman (https://www.facebook.com/amnestyglobal/posts/10200413004312451).


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 08, 2013, 08:37:07 AM
Could Marina take the PDL helm from her father? (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/07/us-italy-berlusconi-marina-idUSBRE9760SN20130807)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 08, 2013, 01:55:03 PM
PD primaries on November 24, convention in October.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on August 13, 2013, 10:14:11 AM
This is Milan

()

In september the People of Freedom (Pdl) will return Forza Italia (FI)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 13, 2013, 11:12:53 AM
I saw that on Facebook the other day. It was only a matter of time.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on August 15, 2013, 09:39:43 AM
Planes are flying over the italian beaches with the written "Forza Italy Forza Silvio"

()


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 22, 2013, 02:49:11 PM
This is Milan

()

In september the People of Freedom (Pdl) will return Forza Italia (FI)

()


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on August 30, 2013, 07:39:04 PM
Berlusconi bloc still has 4 point lead.



Berlusconi’s Lead Narrows as Five Star Gains in Italy Poll
By Lorenzo Totaro
Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Lead of former PM Berlusconi’s bloc over Democratic Party and its allies narrows to 4 pps vs 5.5 pps on Aug. 2, Trieste, Italy-based SWG pollster says in survey distributed by e-mail.
Support for parties led by Berlusconi during Feb. election fell to 36.2% vs 37.8% on Aug. 2: SWG
Support for PD and its allies during Feb. election at 32.2% vs 32.3% on Aug. 2: SWG
Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement at 20.1% vs 18.2% on Aug. 2: SWG
Former PM Monti’s centrist party and allies at 5.7% vs 5.6% on Aug. 2: SWG
NOTE: Poll conducted Aug. 27-28 on 1,500 intws for RAI3 television program Agora


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 31, 2013, 09:11:30 AM
Ugh, they are gaining again? ::)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 02, 2013, 03:57:55 AM
The Senate Committee on elections will meet one week from now to deliberate Berlusconi's expulsion from the Senate.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on September 09, 2013, 03:09:33 PM
The Senate is meeting to debate Berlusconi's expulsion.

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/60927/Senate-panel-meets-over-stripping-Berlusconi-of-seat.html

Well, looks like we can be expecting new elections within the next few weeks.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 10, 2013, 11:25:52 AM
The Committee vote on his expulsion should take place tomorrow. The Senate vote, probably in mid or late October.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 12, 2013, 08:11:34 PM
So...what happened?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on September 13, 2013, 04:44:34 AM
Vote postponed to tuesday.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on September 16, 2013, 03:51:39 PM
Latest poll from TG3 shows Berlusconi’s Bloc and PD-Led Coalition Both at 33%

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Support for parties led by former PM Berlusconi during Feb. election equals backing for Democratic Party-led coalition in general vote, IPR poll for TG3 shows.

Beppe Grillo’s Five Star movement at 21%
Former PM Monti’s bloc at 6.2%: poll

PM Letta’s govt should remain in power, 54% say;
25% want early elections;
15% new govt without elections

Senate should vote in favor of Berlusconi’s expulsion from Parliament, 63% say; 30% against

 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on September 16, 2013, 04:18:07 PM
Senate should vote in favor of Berlusconi’s expulsion from Parliament, 63% say; 30% against

Thank God, I was beginning to think everybody in Italy was insane!


Title: Forza Italia officially returns.
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 18, 2013, 12:20:08 PM
Senate should vote in favor of Berlusconi’s expulsion from Parliament, 63% say; 30% against

Thank God, I was beginning to think everybody in Italy was insane!

They say stuff like this then vote for his coalition. It's nothing new.

By the way, Forza Italia has officially returned.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 18, 2013, 12:24:09 PM
Berlusconi released a video message today strongly implying that he knows he'll be expelled from the Senate, but pledges to remain at the centre of Italian politics.


Title: Re: Forza Italia officially returns.
Post by: Hash on September 18, 2013, 01:21:32 PM
Senate should vote in favor of Berlusconi’s expulsion from Parliament, 63% say; 30% against

Thank God, I was beginning to think everybody in Italy was insane!

They say stuff like this then vote for his coalition. It's nothing new.

By the way, Forza Italia has officially returned.

Or maybe not: the 30% seems to be only a tad below the Berlusconian right's current standing in public opinion, and it's quite reasonable to assume that those voting for other parties (aka the vast majority of people, put together) want him expelled.

There were a crapload of those 'Ancora in campo per l'Italia' posters everywhere in Rome (and a lot of weird neo-fascist propaganda), and a few in Verona, but absolutely nothing of the type in Florence :D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on September 19, 2013, 04:16:54 AM
IPSOS poll for Ballarò

PD 29.3 SEL 5% Others CL 0.3%
Monti 3.9% UDC (Christian Democrats) 2.8%
PDL 27.3% Lega 3.6% Brothers of Italy 2.5% Others CR 1%
Grillo 20.3%
Communists 1.1% Di Pietro 0.9%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on September 23, 2013, 07:56:14 AM
Basilicata Centre Left primary results (for Governor).

Marcello Pittella (Democratic Party) 26.012 votes and 45,6%
Piero Lacorazza (Democratic Party) 25.637 votes and 44,9%
Nicola Benedetto (Democratic Center) 5.211 votes and 9,1%
Michele Somma (Lucan Community) 182 votes and 0,3%

Pittella + 375 votes and 0,7%


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on September 23, 2013, 08:01:06 AM
Have they f**king voted him out yet or what?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on September 23, 2013, 01:24:34 PM
Democratic Party out of the Sicily regional government of Rosario Crocetta.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 26, 2013, 07:42:55 PM
More stupid Berlusconi brinksmanship.  (http://www.euronews.com/newswires/2134948-political-uncertainty-in-italy-deepens-over-berlusconi-threats/)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on September 27, 2013, 12:16:55 PM
PDL's parliamentarians have announced their resignation from parliament in case of forfeiture of Berlusconi.

Link (in Italian) --> http://www.corriere.it/politica/13_settembre_25/decadenza-berlusconi-pdl-ipotesi-dimissioni-di-massa_22e5195e-25f8-11e3-baac-128ffcce9856.shtml


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 27, 2013, 12:19:38 PM
So the government collapses and Berlusconi forces another election. PD will still be without a permanent leader.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 27, 2013, 12:34:45 PM
Chances the government actually collapses in the next few weeks?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 27, 2013, 12:38:33 PM
That all depends on how serious PDL is. Unless the Senate committee lets themselves get blackmailed, they'll expel Berlusconi. If they are serious then an election by default, and the PD will need to get a permanent leader immediately.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on September 28, 2013, 11:35:37 AM
+++ PDL's ministers resign from the government +++


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on September 28, 2013, 11:44:17 AM
Holy  Italy. You're crazy, but not boring.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 28, 2013, 11:45:30 AM
Election time?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 28, 2013, 11:59:29 AM
:D


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on September 28, 2013, 12:17:21 PM
Election? Extern support from PdL/FI? New government with Pd, Civic Choice, Union of Center, Left Ecology and Freedom and ex- M5S and ex-Pdl?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on September 28, 2013, 12:39:34 PM
Quote
Berlusconi ministers 'resign posts'

Ministers from ex-PM Silvio Berlusconi's party are resigning from Italy's shaky coalition government, a spokesman says.

Prime Minister Enrico Letta flew back from New York on Friday in attempt to prevent the coalition from collapsing.

Mr Berlusconi's People of Freedom (PDL) party objects to a planned tax rise.

Its MPs had already threatened to resign if a Senate committee voted next week to expel the ex-PM over his tax fraud conviction.

Wait, what?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 28, 2013, 08:54:08 PM
Oh dear...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on September 28, 2013, 09:01:22 PM
Latest SWG poll from 9/25

                                                   Latest poll             Feb 2013 elections
Center-Left                                  33.8%                              29.5%
Center                                           5.9%                              10.6%
Center-Right                                36.3%                              29.2%
5 Stars Movement (Grillo)            18.8%                              25.5%
Communist Refounding (Ferrero)   1.4%                               2.3%

Berlusconi still ahead.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: DC Al Fine on September 28, 2013, 09:46:08 PM
Latest SWG poll from 9/25

                                                   Latest poll             Feb 2013 elections
Center-Left                                  33.8%                              29.5%
Center                                           5.9%                              10.6%
Center-Right                                36.3%                              29.2%
5 Stars Movement (Grillo)            18.8%                              25.5%
Communist Refounding (Ferrero)   1.4%                               2.3%

Berlusconi still ahead.

While this is depressing for Italians, it's hilarious for everyone else.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 29, 2013, 06:59:30 AM
What's the deal with the Senate though? Is the center-left still favored to hold it?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Beezer on September 29, 2013, 08:34:17 AM
What a mess of a country.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on September 29, 2013, 08:38:00 AM
Much of PdL's gains since the election have come directly from Monti's list, at least.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 29, 2013, 09:17:41 AM
Berlusconi said in his statement that he's open to backing agreed-upon government measures.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 29, 2013, 01:04:50 PM
Much of PdL's gains since the election have come directly from Monti's list, at least.

It's a joke that he's still even around. He's really going to put himself through the wringer again?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on September 29, 2013, 01:59:45 PM
Lets be clear.  Berlusconi had sprung a cleverly prepared trap, exactly like how I thought this entire thing might unfold.   He fought on the topic of the scheduled increase in sales tax from October 1, which ironically enough is the same day of the USA government shutdown. Of course this entire crisis is about Berlusconi personal legal problems but if it comes to elections Berlusconi can fight on the anti-tax platform and sticking it to Brussels since that is where the pressure came to increase the VAT tax.  If there are no elections then that means that Grillo came around to support the Letta government which really just means that this arrangement will not last that long as the Grillo movement might start to melt down.   And in that case a somewhat later next election the Grillo and also the Center Left will just implode leaving the Center-Right, with Berlusconi as either de jure or de facto leader coming to power.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on September 29, 2013, 02:03:56 PM
For some reason Grillo also wants new polls even though polls shows his bloc's support is down from Feb 2013.  Perhaps he feels that going on like this means his support will fall further and a re-shuffle of the political deck might put him in better position.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on September 29, 2013, 02:40:35 PM
Letta to ask for vote of Confidence on Oct 2nd. 


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Hash on September 29, 2013, 02:41:42 PM
For a guy from the PD, Letta seems to actually have a spine.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 30, 2013, 08:41:17 AM
What time is the vote expected?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on October 01, 2013, 01:34:31 PM
Tomorrow at 9.30 (in Italy) the debate in Senate.
PDL's position is still uncertain.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on October 01, 2013, 01:43:23 PM
There is a PdL rebel faction that wants to defy Berlusconi and vote for Letta.  They are likely to succeed if they think they have the numbers as if they fail then an election will come they will be left neither here nor there.  Not clear if they have the numbers in the Senete to give Letta a majority.  We will see tomorrow.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RodPresident on October 01, 2013, 03:42:55 PM
Napolitano nominated more 4 live senators: architect Renzo Piano, conductor Claudio Abbado and scientists Elena Cattaneo and Carlo Rubbia (Nobel Prize of Physics). With Ciampi, Monti and Scelta Civica, Foreign Italians, Valle d'Aosta regionalists, they will need 18 dissidents from PdL, SEL and M5S to save government.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Hash on October 01, 2013, 03:47:51 PM
Apparently even Alfano wants the government to survive; it appears that there is a split along moderate vs hard-right lines within the PdL, with Daniela Santanche (ex-AN, ex-La Destra) being the leader of the anti-Letta forces. I think Letta will survive. I think Alfano and other more moderate people are smart enough to realize that a snap election with the current electoral law would be a recipe for disaster for all involved.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 01, 2013, 04:41:46 PM
PDL rebelling against Berlusconi.
Goats roaring against the lion.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 01, 2013, 04:51:13 PM
PDL rebelling against Berlusconi.
Goats roaring against the lion.

But how many make up this rebel faction?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 01, 2013, 05:03:33 PM
PDL rebelling against Berlusconi.
Goats roaring against the lion.

But how many make up this rebel faction?

Between 30 and 50,it seems.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 01, 2013, 05:12:29 PM
PDL rebelling against Berlusconi.
Goats roaring against the lion.

But how many make up this rebel faction?

Between 30 and 50,it seems.

And some thought we'd never see the day Silvio would be seriously challenged!

Then again, I don't know what the party members outside of parliament think about this. Any polling?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 02, 2013, 01:19:28 AM
PDL rebelling against Berlusconi.
Goats roaring against the lion.

But how many make up this rebel faction?

Between 30 and 50,it seems.

And some thought we'd never see the day Silvio would be seriously challenged!

Then again, I don't know what the party members outside of parliament think about this. Any polling?

There is no such thing as PDL members...voters,at most.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on October 02, 2013, 05:10:15 AM
Berlusconi’s Party to Vote Unanimously Against Letta Govt: Sky

Wait, what about the rebel group ?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 02, 2013, 06:19:19 AM
There is no such thing as PDL members...voters,at most.

This is what I was looking for...

An opinion poll by the Ipsos institute conducted on Tuesday showed 61 percent of PDL voters felt the party should back Letta and 51 percent that it should pick a new leader to take over from Berlusconi and renew the party.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE9910A520131002?irpc=932 (http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE9910A520131002?irpc=932)

A majority wanting a new leader is pretty damn significant. Also, not sure what that Sky report is talking about. Everything I'm seeing points to an increase in PdL members siding with Letta.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 02, 2013, 06:55:50 AM
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HE CHANGED HIS MIND AHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAH


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Hash on October 02, 2013, 07:13:53 AM
A group of 25 PdL senators led by Roberto Formigoni (the mafia tool) defected to join 10 other senators from a small right-wing group to form a dissident/pro-Letta group. Berlusconi likely wanted to do without a humiliating loss.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 02, 2013, 07:17:09 AM
Berlusconi and the Republicans: Taking a whole country hostage.

::)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Senator Cris on October 02, 2013, 08:16:16 AM
Incredible: Berlusconi and PDL has voted the trust at Letta government.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 02, 2013, 09:39:18 AM
Is it really surprising? He was already being humiliated and it was only going to get worse.

Berlusconi and the Republicans: Taking a whole country hostage.

::)

Glad you eye-rolled at your own silliness.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 02, 2013, 10:39:25 AM
Is it really surprising? He was already being humiliated and it was only going to get worse.

Berlusconi and the Republicans: Taking a whole country hostage.

::)

Glad you eye-rolled at your own silliness.

Believe it or not, Berlusconi and the Republicans are the silly ones ...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 02, 2013, 11:30:27 AM
Is it really surprising? He was already being humiliated and it was only going to get worse.

Berlusconi and the Republicans: Taking a whole country hostage.

::)

Glad you eye-rolled at your own silliness.

Believe it or not, Berlusconi and the Republicans are the silly ones ...

I don't doubt that one of the two is silly. ;)


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Hash on October 02, 2013, 12:10:17 PM
At least Berlusconi knows that he's silly :P I really think Berlusconi fully gave up on serious politics after 2001 and just became a comedian/clown.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 02, 2013, 02:39:40 PM
http://video.corriere.it/governo-berlusconi-vota-fiducia-ma-brunetta-non-sa/1016ef8c-2b7a-11e3-93f8-300eb3d838ac (http://video.corriere.it/governo-berlusconi-vota-fiducia-ma-brunetta-non-sa/1016ef8c-2b7a-11e3-93f8-300eb3d838ac)

"The decision has been made to vote against the government UNANIMOUSLY (spelled out"

Italian version of "read my lips"....


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: ERvND on October 02, 2013, 07:23:07 PM
After this crushing defeat, your normal political instincts tell you: This man is finished.

It's Berlusconi, however, so expect him to make a big comeback within the next weeks or months.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RodPresident on October 02, 2013, 07:45:56 PM
Did Formigoni revenge for losing his feud (Lombardia) to Lega Nord? Berlusconi expel vote will be dramatic, if government tries to whip his members to vote against expel.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 03, 2013, 08:09:32 AM
I didn't even know Formigoni was in parliament. I guess running earlier this year was part of the deal for him to step down as Governor.

Happy 2,000th post here, by the way! It's been quite a year.


Title: Senate committee recommends Berlusconi expulsion.
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 04, 2013, 10:02:43 AM
Just breaking. Full Senate vote expected within three weeks.


Title: Re: Senate committee recommends Berlusconi expulsion.
Post by: Tender Branson on October 04, 2013, 10:07:26 AM
Just breaking. Full Senate vote expected within three weeks.

Good. Berlusconi needs to be grounded anyway. There's no need for special rules for egoistic, eccentric billionaires, craving for attention all the time.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 04, 2013, 10:09:27 AM
I wonder if the whole Senate has the balls to kick him out though ...


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 04, 2013, 01:45:28 PM
I wonder if the whole Senate has the balls to kick him out though ...
Simple majority is required.

Problem is,vote will be secret. And there are rumours that M5S senators will vote in his favour, so as to blame PD and go to elections with a vast majority. PD senators are working out a way to make their votes blatantly clear to all.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 04, 2013, 01:54:04 PM
Chances Silvio can buy off enough PD Senators to survive?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on October 04, 2013, 01:55:26 PM
Just dropped to close to zero.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 04, 2013, 02:00:33 PM
Figured I'd still ask since that had been alleged in the past.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: mappix on October 04, 2013, 02:27:19 PM
Problem is,vote will be secret. And there are rumours that M5S senators will vote in his favour, so as to blame PD and go to elections with a vast majority. PD senators are working out a way to make their votes blatantly clear to all.

Where do these rumours come from?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 04, 2013, 02:45:53 PM
Problem is,vote will be secret. And there are rumours that M5S senators will vote in his favour, so as to blame PD and go to elections with a vast majority. PD senators are working out a way to make their votes blatantly clear to all.

Where do these rumours come from?

Political journalists from pretty much everywhere.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: mappix on October 04, 2013, 07:44:49 PM
Political journalists from pretty much everywhere.

Right, found out now. It was a PD politician who told this to the press but I also read M5S speakers asked for the vote not to be secret.

Many are saying that "the White Whale (DC Party) is resurfacing from the deep" with this new Government alliance, the small centrist parties need more forces to survive like they always do.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: SPQR on October 05, 2013, 04:10:51 AM
Political journalists from pretty much everywhere.

Right, found out now. It was a PD politician who told this to the press but I also read M5S speakers asked for the vote not to be secret.

Many are saying that "the White Whale (DC Party) is resurfacing from the deep" with this new Government alliance, the small centrist parties need more forces to survive like they always do.
Asking for the vote not to be secret is nothing other than a purely propagandistic vote.
If a very number small of senators (don't remember how many) asks for the vote to be secret, and the PdL has already announced it wants the vote to be secret, then it has to be. M5S is doing nothing other than propaganda,as usual.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: jaichind on October 15, 2013, 08:23:29 AM
Latest polls (from a couple of days ago) from SWG now that the crisis is over.  Center Right back in the lead

Center-Left             32.9
Center                     6.3
Center-Right           35.4
Grillo                      20.0
Comunist Refound     1.5
Italy of Values          1.0
Others                     2.9


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 15, 2013, 08:25:46 AM
Any updates on a) Berlusconi expulsion b) PD primary?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: mappix on October 17, 2013, 01:41:47 AM
Any updates on a) Berlusconi expulsion b) PD primary?

a) The vote has been delayed. Some PD members want to support M5S proposal for the vote not to be secret.
b) December 8th.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 17, 2013, 12:29:03 PM
I don't understand why a vote in any legislative body would ever be secret.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Zanas on October 17, 2013, 01:06:30 PM
I don't understand why a vote in any legislative body would ever be secret.
I don't know about where you are from, but here in France we have a general principle of electoral law as a whole, which applies to nearly every vote that is in the slight official that is organized in the country, that any vote on a person should be secret, and any vote on other matters can be secret or not depending on what the parts agree on.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Andrea on October 17, 2013, 02:34:47 PM
Monti resigns from Civic Choice. Mauro (and Casini) basically took over the group

His whole attempt into electoral politics has been a flop.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 17, 2013, 02:37:11 PM
Monti resigns from Civic Choice.

His whole attempt into electoral politics has been a flop.

It's about damn time! Stunned he stuck around after the election.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: DC Al Fine on October 17, 2013, 02:39:21 PM
So where do the few remaining Civic Choice voters go?


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 17, 2013, 02:41:23 PM
So where do the few remaining Civic Choice voters go?

I imagine the few remaining are wealthy northern business types that had problems with Berlusconi. With Silvio effectively out of the picture, I assume they'd return to the center-right coalition.


Title: Re: Italy 2013: The official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 19, 2013, 06:35:25 AM
I've been asked to lock this thread, so there you go. It's been a good run. :)