Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on June 14, 2012, 01:32:58 AM



Title: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Obama
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on June 14, 2012, 01:32:58 AM
New Poll: Michigan President by Foster McCollum White & Associates on 2012-06-12 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2620120612185)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 45%, I: 4%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://ftpcontent.worldnow.com/wjbk/pdf/general-election-voter-poll-june-2012.pdf)

Question 1:

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are

you more likely to vote for in the election??

1- President Barack Obama, 2- Mitt Romney, 3- Another candidate or 4- Undecided

(Barack Obama): 46.89%

(Mitt Romney): 45.48%

(Another candidate): 3.56%

(Undecided): 4.07%



The second question:

The ongoing scandal of Wayne County Government and the Democratic County

Executive Robert Ficano has dominated the news for the past 10 months. Does this

continuing scandal impact your view of President Obama and Democratic candidates for

the general election?

(View President Obama/Democratic candidates very unfavorably): 27.43%

(View President Obama/Democratic candidates somewhat unfavorably): 9.84%

Total Unfavorable 37.27%

(It does not impact my view of President Obama/Democratic candidates): 53.45%

Total Awareness factor 90.72%

(Unaware of the issue): 9.28%



Now, I don't think this issue will persist through November.  I think the state party will force Ficano out before then.  And even if they don't, I don't think it'll have as much of an effect on election day as it does now, since the anger at Ficano is fresher right now.



Still, this is a state that the DNC and Obama don't want to even have to worry about... it's going to be a blue state on election day, but through the summer, it could remain close like this.


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: pbrower2a on June 14, 2012, 03:53:26 AM
New Poll: Michigan President by Foster McCollum White & Associates on 2012-06-12 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2620120612185)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 45%, I: 4%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://ftpcontent.worldnow.com/wjbk/pdf/general-election-voter-poll-june-2012.pdf)

Question 1:

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are

you more likely to vote for in the election??

1- President Barack Obama, 2- Mitt Romney, 3- Another candidate or 4- Undecided

(Barack Obama): 46.89%

(Mitt Romney): 45.48%

(Another candidate): 3.56%

(Undecided): 4.07%



The second question:

The ongoing scandal of Wayne County Government and the Democratic County

Executive Robert Ficano has dominated the news for the past 10 months. Does this

continuing scandal impact your view of President Obama and Democratic candidates for

the general election?

(View President Obama/Democratic candidates very unfavorably): 27.43%

(View President Obama/Democratic candidates somewhat unfavorably): 9.84%

Total Unfavorable 37.27%

(It does not impact my view of President Obama/Democratic candidates): 53.45%

Total Awareness factor 90.72%

(Unaware of the issue): 9.28%



Now, I don't think this issue will persist through November.  I think the state party will force Ficano out before then.  And even if they don't, I don't think it'll have as much of an effect on election day as it does now, since the anger at Ficano is fresher right now.



Still, this is a state that the DNC and Obama don't want to even have to worry about... it's going to be a blue state on election day, but through the summer, it could remain close like this.

Again, an illustration of how news cycles can shape immediate perceptions. Wayne County and especially Detroit have been political snake-pits for decades. If Republicans pose as reformers it is as the sorts who would give everything to the economic elites who then decide that working people harder for less so that they can skim off more is a viable long-term solution.

Perhaps more significant is that "American Crossroads", Karl Rove's front organization, has lavished huge amounts of money on negative ads against the President and on Democrats in general in Michigan. 


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: morgieb on June 14, 2012, 04:00:23 AM
Anybody know about this polling firm's track record?


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: pbrower2a on June 14, 2012, 06:55:52 AM
Anybody know about this polling firm's track record?

Probably not as blatant as EPIC-MPRI.


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 14, 2012, 07:02:35 AM
I'm sure Obama's lead is closer to 6.4542456743419%


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on June 14, 2012, 08:14:34 AM
Who are these Foster McCollum White & Associates people? How are their number so exact?


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: tpfkaw on June 14, 2012, 10:27:13 AM
"Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, an Independent, a Republican or a Tea Party member?"

lol


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: timothyinMD on June 14, 2012, 10:39:07 AM
Who are these Foster McCollum White & Associates people? How are their number so exact?

Well you see, when you divide one number into another number, usually it doesn't come out to an exactly even number..

Example:  493/860= 57.326%

Other pollsters typical release what we call "rounded numbers"


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: Miles on June 14, 2012, 10:56:23 AM
46% of respondents were 66 or older while only 4% were between 18 and 30. Maybe Michigan would actually be competitive if that was the real turnout.

2008 Exit Polls:
18-29: 20%
30-44: 28%
45-64: 37%
65+: 16%


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: mondale84 on June 14, 2012, 12:14:25 PM
46% of respondents were 66 or older while only 4% were between 18 and 30. Maybe Michigan would actually be competitive if that was the real turnout.

2008 Exit Polls:
18-29: 20%
30-44: 28%
45-64: 37%
65+: 16%


LOL. And we thought YouGov was bad...


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: Umengus on June 14, 2012, 12:15:03 PM
Who are these Foster McCollum White & Associates people? How are their number so exact?

it's a D firm (source: realclearpolitics)


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: mondale84 on June 14, 2012, 12:16:38 PM
Who are these Foster McCollum White & Associates people? How are their number so exact?

it's a D firm (source: realclearpolitics)

 You're using THEM as a source?


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 14, 2012, 01:40:48 PM
Haha.  Push polls.


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 14, 2012, 01:42:14 PM
Yeah, push poll. Keep it out.


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: Napoleon on June 14, 2012, 01:49:22 PM

How is this a push poll?


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 14, 2012, 01:52:15 PM

Quote
The ongoing scandal of Wayne County Government and the Democratic County

Executive Robert Ficano has dominated the news for the past 10 months. Does this

continuing scandal impact your view of President Obama and Democratic candidates for

the general election?


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: MorningInAmerica on June 14, 2012, 01:57:16 PM

The group did a good job on the Michigan primary. Had Romney beating Santorum by 2, and he actually won by 3. But worth mentioning no Republican has won Michigan or Wisconsin since Bush in 1988


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas on June 14, 2012, 02:20:25 PM

The group did a good job on the Michigan primary. Had Romney beating Santorum by 2, and he actually won by 3. But worth mentioning no Republican has won Michigan or Wisconsin since Bush in 1988

Yeah, this is another state like Wisconsin, I think. It's not likely to wind up in the Romney column, but Obama having to play defense there is not good for him.


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: Umengus on June 14, 2012, 04:37:38 PM
Who are these Foster McCollum White & Associates people? How are their number so exact?

it's a D firm (source: realclearpolitics)

 You're using THEM as a source?



what is your problem with the source ? please, don't tell me that realclearpolitics is republican hack...


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: cinyc on June 14, 2012, 05:07:34 PM

Quote
The ongoing scandal of Wayne County Government and the Democratic County

Executive Robert Ficano has dominated the news for the past 10 months. Does this

continuing scandal impact your view of President Obama and Democratic candidates for

the general election?

There was no push polling here.  Question order matters.  That question was asked after the Presidential horse race question, not before.  


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: DrScholl on June 14, 2012, 06:16:24 PM
Michigan won't flip outside of a landslide. Romney's only path is mostly through states that Bush won. Obama will win Michigan regardless of winning re-election or not.


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: mondale84 on June 14, 2012, 07:33:35 PM
Who are these Foster McCollum White & Associates people? How are their number so exact?

it's a D firm (source: realclearpolitics)

 You're using THEM as a source?



what is your problem with the source ? please, don't tell me that realclearpolitics is republican hack...

This is widely known, just take a look at their headlines...


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: President von Cat on June 14, 2012, 10:20:59 PM
Who are these Foster McCollum White & Associates people? How are their number so exact?

it's a D firm (source: realclearpolitics)

 You're using THEM as a source?



what is your problem with the source ? please, don't tell me that realclearpolitics is republican hack...

This is widely known, just take a look at their headlines...

Specifically, their original content. Its so overwhelmingly pro-Romney it makes me sick.


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on June 15, 2012, 12:00:31 AM

Quote
The ongoing scandal of Wayne County Government and the Democratic County

Executive Robert Ficano has dominated the news for the past 10 months. Does this

continuing scandal impact your view of President Obama and Democratic candidates for

the general election?

That was asked AFTER the Obama/Romney matchup.


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on June 15, 2012, 12:01:33 AM
Also, I believe this poll was commissioned by FOX 2 Detroit.


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 15, 2012, 12:05:11 AM

Quote
The ongoing scandal of Wayne County Government and the Democratic County

Executive Robert Ficano has dominated the news for the past 10 months. Does this

continuing scandal impact your view of President Obama and Democratic candidates for

the general election?

That was asked AFTER the Obama/Romney matchup.

Irrelevant.


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: TJ in Oregon on June 15, 2012, 12:09:26 AM

Quote
The ongoing scandal of Wayne County Government and the Democratic County

Executive Robert Ficano has dominated the news for the past 10 months. Does this

continuing scandal impact your view of President Obama and Democratic candidates for

the general election?

That was asked AFTER the Obama/Romney matchup.

Irrelevant.

How can a later question effect the way someone answered a previous question?


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 15, 2012, 12:11:19 AM

Quote
The ongoing scandal of Wayne County Government and the Democratic County

Executive Robert Ficano has dominated the news for the past 10 months. Does this

continuing scandal impact your view of President Obama and Democratic candidates for

the general election?

That was asked AFTER the Obama/Romney matchup.

Irrelevant.

How can a later question effect the way someone answered a previous question?

I wasn't referring to the previous question.


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on June 15, 2012, 12:20:11 AM
Who are these Foster McCollum White & Associates people? How are their number so exact?
They use a measure of how hard people push the buttons on their phone. This allows them to have more exactness than would typically be possible from their sample size.


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: pbrower2a on June 15, 2012, 02:06:25 PM
Also, I believe this poll was commissioned by FOX 2 Detroit.

WJBK-TV (Detroit channel 2) is indeed an owned-and-operated station of the FoX Network.  


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: cinyc on June 15, 2012, 03:44:44 PM

Quote
The ongoing scandal of Wayne County Government and the Democratic County

Executive Robert Ficano has dominated the news for the past 10 months. Does this

continuing scandal impact your view of President Obama and Democratic candidates for

the general election?

That was asked AFTER the Obama/Romney matchup.

Irrelevant.

How can a later question effect the way someone answered a previous question?

I wasn't referring to the previous question.

Then how exactly is anyone being pushed in this poll?  You have two unrelated questions - the horse race question followed by a question asking whether a local scandal affected your answer to the horse race question.  Nobody was pushed to answer anything.  The local scandal question is designed to gauge to what extent a local scandal hurts up ticket voters - negative reverse coattails.

A push poll is one where a pollster first asks something like "Candidate X has been known to beat his wife.  Would that make you more or less likely to vote for Candidate X?", usually followed by similar questions that cast a negative light on Candidate X, followed by the horse race question (i.e. "If the election were held today, would you vote for X or Y?").  All the negative information about X pushes on-the-fence voters to say they'd vote for Y, even if they would have voted for X had the horse race question been asked first or previous questions had given a more balanced view of candidate X.  There was no push polling here, because the horse race question was asked first.


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 15, 2012, 06:15:36 PM

Quote
The ongoing scandal of Wayne County Government and the Democratic County

Executive Robert Ficano has dominated the news for the past 10 months. Does this

continuing scandal impact your view of President Obama and Democratic candidates for

the general election?

That was asked AFTER the Obama/Romney matchup.

Irrelevant.

How can a later question effect the way someone answered a previous question?

I wasn't referring to the previous question.

Then how exactly is anyone being pushed in this poll?  You have two unrelated questions - the horse race question followed by a question asking whether a local scandal affected your answer to the horse race question.  Nobody was pushed to answer anything.  The local scandal question is designed to gauge to what extent a local scandal hurts up ticket voters - negative reverse coattails.

A push poll is one where a pollster first asks something like "Candidate X has been known to beat his wife.  Would that make you more or less likely to vote for Candidate X?", usually followed by similar questions that cast a negative light on Candidate X, followed by the horse race question (i.e. "If the election were held today, would you vote for X or Y?").  All the negative information about X pushes on-the-fence voters to say they'd vote for Y, even if they would have voted for X had the horse race question been asked first or previous questions had given a more balanced view of candidate X.  There was no push polling here, because the horse race question was asked first.

Bringing up one party's scandals in a poll is very similar to campaigning on the scandals, even if the previous question wasn't asked second.  So no, maybe they didn't ask the second question first so that it would show up in their polls, but that doesn't mean the horse race question changed voters' opinions afterwards, and that alone hurts this poll's credibility.


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: Brittain33 on June 17, 2012, 10:50:49 AM
It doesn't meet the definition of a "push poll" because a push poll is a campaign tactic masquerading as a poll. However, it's a biased poll because of the way it's constructed and probably designed that way to give the Fox station a good headline number to run on.


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: phk on June 19, 2012, 11:11:26 PM
Michigan is trending R steadily though.


Title: Re: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Ob
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on June 20, 2012, 11:15:27 PM
Also, I believe this poll was commissioned by FOX 2 Detroit.

WJBK-TV (Detroit channel 2) is indeed an owned-and-operated station of the FoX Network.  

And have you ever observed conservative bias from WJBK?