Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/State Elections => Topic started by: Mr. Morden on June 19, 2012, 06:46:40 AM



Title: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Mr. Morden on June 19, 2012, 06:46:40 AM
Seems like we have quite a large number of incumbent governors with terrible job approval ratings at the moment.  Of course, two years is a political eternity.  But assuming that some of these incumbents face at least the prospect of a competitive race in 2014, who are some of the 2014 gubernatorial candidates who might realistically run and have the potential to win?  I'm especially curious about some of the larger states, like FL, IL, PA, MI, etc.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: CLARENCE 2015! on June 19, 2012, 07:05:05 AM
I am not sure to be frank... the issue with Democrats in Florida is that their bench is thin- a South Florida Democrat can't win where I live and there aren't many North Florida Democrats who can make it thru a primary. Sink was a great candidate as she lived in Tampa but had a drawl...
I know who will not be the next Governor- Charlie Crist


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Mr. Morden on June 19, 2012, 07:21:15 AM
Isn't there buzz that Sink might run again?


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on June 19, 2012, 08:10:18 AM
OH: Kasich is pretty unpopular and could be beaten by a number of Ohio Democrats, but Richard Cordray pretty much has the right of first refusal here.  And barring some sort of massive unforeseeable event or scandal, Cordray would beat Kasich.  In fact, Cordray would be favored even if Kasich weren't so unpopular, but since he is, he may well be DOA (although it's too early to make that assumption atm).

Florida: Rod Smith seems like he might be a strong statewide candidate.  Buddy Dyer is another possibility.  Clarence is right that it won't be Crist.  But whoever the Democratic nominee is, it is important to remember that they will probably be running against Rick Scott (Scott probably has enough tea-party support to survive any primary challenge and doesn't strike me as someone who would agree to not run for reelection for the good of the Republican party).  This may end up canceling out many of the usual disadvantages Democrats face when running in statewide elections in Florida.  In any event, the bar for how strong a Democrat needs to be to win this race is much lower in this race than it normally is in Florida.

Pennsylvania: Some of this depends on who wins the statewide offices that are up this year. 

Michigan: Idk, but given the natural Democratic tilt of the state, I have a hard time imagining that the state Democratic party is too weak to find an electable candidate here.  2010 was a fluke.



Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 19, 2012, 10:24:30 AM
Sestak might run in PA.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: morgieb on June 19, 2012, 07:01:04 PM
Iowa: Braley, Vilsack and Culver have all been floated. But given that Branstad's approvals have looked a lot better from non-PPP sources, they may choose not to run.

Michigan: Hansen Clarke or Ving Bergano?

Ohio: Probably Cordray's seat as Mr X has suggested, but Strickland or Ryan could make a run as well. Or maybe even Kuninich. :P

Pennsylvania: People have floated Sestak, what about Holden or Altmire who have lost their House seats?

Wisconsin: Only Feingold could really test him here. I feel that Kind will run for Johnson's seat in 2016.

South Carolina: Sheheen? I don't see any other real candidates, lol.

Florida: Many people can run here and have a good chance of winning - Crist, Sink, Rich, maybe even DWS or Grayson :P

Texas: Maybe try Bill White or Chet Edwards?

Arizona: Goddard probably, though Giffords should run if she's mostly recovered.

Nebraska: Looks like Sheehy's running here.

Arkansas: Although the Democrats are struggling here, I think Ross and McDaniel are stronger candidates than anything the Republicans have to offer.

Maryland: Brown's probably favoured, although Franchot and Gansler could get the nomination as well. I don't see any Reps who could win here except maybe Steele or Erlich.

Massachusetts: Probably Murray's seat, though I can see Brown running if he loses to Warren.

Maine: Cutler can run as an Independent, or Pingree (both?) or Michaud can run as Dems.

Connecticut: Foley appears to be running again, though it'll probably be easier for the Reps if they run Simmons or Shays.

Hawaii: Djou?

Rhode Island: Don't know. Robatille will probably get the R nomination, though.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Mr. Morden on June 20, 2012, 07:03:02 AM

I assume you mean Virgil Bernero?

Btw, this column adds Jocelyn Benson and Gretchen Whitmer as possible Michigan 2014 gubernatorial candidates (though it looks like Benson has never held public office, so she'd be a longshot):

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/02/looking_ahead_to_2014_who_will.html

What about Illinois?  Pat Quinn only barely won against mediocre competition in 2010, and he's gotten less popular since then, hasn't he?  So does the GOP have a chance?

And what about California?  Is Brown even certain to run for reelection?  He'd be 80 years old when a hypothetical second term ends.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on June 20, 2012, 08:15:40 AM

I assume you mean Virgil Bernero?

Btw, this column adds Jocelyn Benson and Gretchen Whitmer as possible Michigan 2014 gubernatorial candidates (though it looks like Benson has never held public office, so she'd be a longshot):

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/02/looking_ahead_to_2014_who_will.html

What about Illinois?  Pat Quinn only barely won against mediocre competition in 2010, and he's gotten less popular since then, hasn't he?  So does the GOP have a chance?

And what about California?  Is Brown even certain to run for reelection?  He'd be 80 years old when a hypothetical second term ends.


IIRC Benson narrowly lost the race for Michigan Secretary of State in 2010, despite being a first-time candidate (I think).  Whitmer would definitely be a strong candidate.  If he has appeal to white voters and did a good job as Mayor (idk if either is the case), maybe Dennis Archer.  Gary Peters (assuming he beats Clarke) would be a strong candidate although I suspect that he is more interested in running for Senate whenever Carl Levin decides not to run for reelection.  In any event, I am pretty sure that there won't be any problem finding a good candidate to run against Snyder, especially if he is still highly unpopular (although I think he'll probably face a tough race no matter what). 

I don't think Brown has anything to worry about atm and if he doesn't run for reelection, there are bound to be plenty of Democrats waiting in the wings (Newsom, Harris, etc). 

It's to early to say what will happen in Illinois (even more so than in MI or CA).  Quinn may not run for reelection, the Republicans may nominate a very weak or unusually strong candidate.  This race is currently defined by known unknowns.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: morgieb on June 20, 2012, 08:27:19 AM
Brown's approvals are currently -27, but it has been a long time since a Californian governor has lost re-election.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 20, 2012, 08:56:29 AM
Holden or Altmire for Governor? Good luck winning the primary.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Dereich on June 20, 2012, 09:03:12 AM
Florida: Many people can run here and have a good chance of winning - Crist, Sink, Rich, maybe even DWS or Grayson :P

You're right about the first three. I'd prefer Sink myself as she seems to have a good head on her sholders and isn't as much of an opportunistic slimeball as Crist. But DWS or Grayson? Nope. Neither have the tempriment to win over Republicans leaners, and while it may look like a cakewalk against Scott now, you'll get Republicans running back to his side against those two. DWS also faces the problem of being too much of a national figure; it'd be easy to link her to the national party and paint her as extreme.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on June 21, 2012, 02:59:22 PM
Last I heard, Tom Corbett (PA) didn't have really bad numbers.  Here are some of my preferred potential candidates, all of whom I believe may win:

IL: Dan Rutherford (R)
MI: Bill Schuette (R)
FL: Bill McCollum (R) or Pam Bondi (R)
CT: Rob Simmons (R)
OH: Mike DeWine (R)
PA: Bill Scranton III (R)


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on June 21, 2012, 03:03:13 PM
OH: Kasich is pretty unpopular and could be beaten by a number of Ohio Democrats, but Richard Cordray pretty much has the right of first refusal here.  And barring some sort of massive unforeseeable event or scandal, Cordray would beat Kasich.  In fact, Cordray would be favored even if Kasich weren't so unpopular, but since he is, he may well be DOA (although it's too early to make that assumption atm).

Florida: Rod Smith seems like he might be a strong statewide candidate.  Buddy Dyer is another possibility.  Clarence is right that it won't be Crist.  But whoever the Democratic nominee is, it is important to remember that they will probably be running against Rick Scott (Scott probably has enough tea-party support to survive any primary challenge and doesn't strike me as someone who would agree to not run for reelection for the good of the Republican party).  This may end up canceling out many of the usual disadvantages Democrats face when running in statewide elections in Florida.  In any event, the bar for how strong a Democrat needs to be to win this race is much lower in this race than it normally is in Florida.

Pennsylvania: Some of this depends on who wins the statewide offices that are up this year. 

Michigan: Idk, but given the natural Democratic tilt of the state, I have a hard time imagining that the state Democratic party is too weak to find an electable candidate here.  2010 was a fluke.


Michigan is a swing state.  Gore only carried it by 5 points in 2000 and Kerry only took it by 3 points in 2004.  Obama's margin in 2008 was the real fluke.  Gov. Snyder has said that he won't run again if he accomplishes what he wants to by the next election.  I predict Bill Schuette will get the GOP nomination and win the general election.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Miles on June 21, 2012, 03:30:29 PM
Last I heard, Tom Corbett (PA) didn't have really bad numbers.

36% approval isn't exactly great. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=154981.0)


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: hopper on June 21, 2012, 03:56:26 PM
Iowa: Braley, Vilsack and Culver have all been floated. But given that Branstad's approvals have looked a lot better from non-PPP sources, they may choose not to run.

Michigan: Hansen Clarke or Ving Bergano?

Ohio: Probably Cordray's seat as Mr X has suggested, but Strickland or Ryan could make a run as well. Or maybe even Kuninich. :P

Pennsylvania: People have floated Sestak, what about Holden or Altmire who have lost their House seats?

Wisconsin: Only Feingold could really test him here. I feel that Kind will run for Johnson's seat in 2016.

South Carolina: Sheheen? I don't see any other real candidates, lol.

Florida: Many people can run here and have a good chance of winning - Crist, Sink, Rich, maybe even DWS or Grayson :P

Texas: Maybe try Bill White or Chet Edwards?

Arizona: Goddard probably, though Giffords should run if she's mostly recovered.

Nebraska: Looks like Sheehy's running here.

Arkansas: Although the Democrats are struggling here, I think Ross and McDaniel are stronger candidates than anything the Republicans have to offer.

Maryland: Brown's probably favoured, although Franchot and Gansler could get the nomination as well. I don't see any Reps who could win here except maybe Steele or Erlich.

Massachusetts: Probably Murray's seat, though I can see Brown running if he loses to Warren.

Maine: Cutler can run as an Independent, or Pingree (both?) or Michaud can run as Dems.

Connecticut: Foley appears to be running again, though it'll probably be easier for the Reps if they run Simmons or Shays.

Hawaii: Djou?

Rhode Island: Don't know. Robatille will probably get the R nomination, though.
Maryland-No Elrich isn't running again. He only ran again for Governor in 2010 because he saw it was going to be a huge Republican year. Steele-maybe maybe not. Maryland has only had one Republican Governor since the decade of the 70's and that was Elrich from 2003-2006.

Arizona-Giffords is going for McCain's US Senate seat wether McCain retires or not in 2016 I believe.

Connecticut-It looks like a pick-up for the R's right now.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: hopper on June 21, 2012, 04:02:13 PM
OH: Kasich is pretty unpopular and could be beaten by a number of Ohio Democrats, but Richard Cordray pretty much has the right of first refusal here.  And barring some sort of massive unforeseeable event or scandal, Cordray would beat Kasich.  In fact, Cordray would be favored even if Kasich weren't so unpopular, but since he is, he may well be DOA (although it's too early to make that assumption atm).

Florida: Rod Smith seems like he might be a strong statewide candidate.  Buddy Dyer is another possibility.  Clarence is right that it won't be Crist.  But whoever the Democratic nominee is, it is important to remember that they will probably be running against Rick Scott (Scott probably has enough tea-party support to survive any primary challenge and doesn't strike me as someone who would agree to not run for reelection for the good of the Republican party).  This may end up canceling out many of the usual disadvantages Democrats face when running in statewide elections in Florida.  In any event, the bar for how strong a Democrat needs to be to win this race is much lower in this race than it normally is in Florida.

Pennsylvania: Some of this depends on who wins the statewide offices that are up this year. 

Michigan: Idk, but given the natural Democratic tilt of the state, I have a hard time imagining that the state Democratic party is too weak to find an electable candidate here.  2010 was a fluke.


Michigan is a swing state.  Gore only carried it by 5 points in 2000 and Kerry only took it by 3 points in 2004.  Obama's margin in 2008 was the real fluke.  Gov. Snyder has said that he won't run again if he accomplishes what he wants to by the next electionI predict Bill Schuette will get the GOP nomination and win the general election.
So basically Snyder is pulling a Matt Blunt in leaving when he accomplishes everything that he want to accomplish. I thought it would be hard for a Republican to win the governorship after or when Snyder decides to leave.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Cobbler on June 21, 2012, 05:47:13 PM
Maybe Meg Whitman in California?


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on June 22, 2012, 02:04:56 PM
The Republicans will have a much easier time holding on if Snyder doesn't run again, and Bill Schuette would be a strong candidate for Republicans to put up.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: muon2 on June 23, 2012, 04:08:42 PM
State Sen Kirk Dillard is one to watch in IL. He lost the 2010 primary by less than 200 votes due to a fragmented suburban field (Brady was the only downstate candidate of the 7). Virtually every inside observer has remarked that he would have performed roughly the same as Mark Kirk in the general had he been the nominee.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Holmes on June 23, 2012, 06:55:30 PM
People need to stop looking at candidates who have lost as their saving grace.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Donerail on June 23, 2012, 07:14:15 PM
Florida: Sink can win this time: even though she's not that good a campaigner and kinda a moderate hero, she's not Scott. Rod Smith was actually Sink's Lt. Gov. running mate, and is a Blue Dog type guy. There's a good group of mayors (Alvin Brown of Jacksonville, Buddy Dyer of Orlando, Jack Seiler of Ft. Lauderdale, Pam Iorio of Tampa), but they really only have appeal in their localities. State Sens. Jeremy Ring, Nan Rich, Dave Aronberg, and Dan Gelber all seem like decent people, but they're from South Florida, so no. So there's a pretty good group of Democrats who, excluding Sink & Smith, can't win, and I don't like Sink or Smith (and they'd be a 50-50 shot). Really, there's only 3 "Democrats" who can win statewide. Those 3 "Democrats" are Gov. Bob Graham, Sen. Bill Nelson, and Gov. Charlie Crist. Bob Graham probably won't return, and Bill Nelson'd only run if he lost his Senate election (which he won't). So you're left with one option: Charlie.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Mister Mets on June 24, 2012, 08:37:57 AM
Pennsylvania: People have floated Sestak, what about Holden or Altmire who have lost their House seats?

Wisconsin: Only Feingold could really test him here. I feel that Kind will run for Johnson's seat in 2016.

South Carolina: Sheheen? I don't see any other real candidates, lol.

Florida: Many people can run here and have a good chance of winning - Crist, Sink, Rich, maybe even DWS or Grayson :P

Texas: Maybe try Bill White or Chet Edwards?

Arizona: Goddard probably, though Giffords should run if she's mostly recovered.

Nebraska: Looks like Sheehy's running here.

Arkansas: Although the Democrats are struggling here, I think Ross and McDaniel are stronger candidates than anything the Republicans have to offer.

Maryland: Brown's probably favoured, although Franchot and Gansler could get the nomination as well. I don't see any Reps who could win here except maybe Steele or Erlich.

Massachusetts: Probably Murray's seat, though I can see Brown running if he loses to Warren.

Maine: Cutler can run as an Independent, or Pingree (both?) or Michaud can run as Dems.

Connecticut: Foley appears to be running again, though it'll probably be easier for the Reps if they run Simmons or Shays.

Hawaii: Djou?

Rhode Island: Don't know. Robatille will probably get the R nomination, though.
Sestak would have a better electoral history than anyone who lost a US House race. Plus, he's better known throughout the state. He will be in his 60s. But so was Corbett.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 24, 2012, 09:06:14 AM
Did the buzz around Lisa Madigan die when she didn't run for the Obama seat?


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Mister Mets on June 24, 2012, 10:56:02 AM
My guess is that Perry and Brown don't run for reelection. Perry would be in office for 14 years. Brown would be 76, and he already had his comeback. So those would be the major elections.

If Cruz loses the Senate primary against Dewhurst, I think he would be the top contender for the Republican party's nomination.

If Cruz is elected to the Senate, it would be an interesting primary due to the sheer size of the Republican bench.

The Democratic field for the 2012 election for Senate in Texas is so weak that they'll likely go with token opposition in 2014.

Gavin Newsom is probably the first in line for the California democratic primary. At the moment, it seems like the top Republicans would be either Whitman or Fiorina, whoever has more interest in running.

In New York, I suspect Cuomo would face token opposition.

In Florida, Rick Scott seems like the type of guy who would run for a second term even if his approval rating continued to be in the toilet. And he has enough support amongst Republicans to avoid a primary. I'm not sure who the Democratic nominee will be. Crist will be valuable in national politics, because of what it says about the Republican party, but his record is fairly conservative, and there are the gay rumors, which recently got mainstream media attention. The Florida cabinet members are all Republican, so Democrats will have to look elsewhere in the congressional delegation, state legislature and mayoralities.

In Illinois, I would imagine Lisa Madigan would be a likely contender, just because Attorney Generals have good odds of being elected Governor. On the Republican side, Bill Brady has name recognition from his 2010 run. I think he would start out as the party's frontrunner.

In Nebraska, Lieutenant Governor Rick Sheehy seems to be the likely Republican contender.

In Arkansas, Attorney General Dustin McDaniel seems to be the best candidate the Democrats to follow in the footsteps of Bill Clinton and Mike Bebee. Any Democrat reelected to statewide office in 2010 in such a red state deserves respect. Although Bill Halter did pretty well in the primary against Blanche Lincoln. Lieutenant Governor Mark Darr seems to be the most prominent Republican.

If Scott Brown loses the Senate race, he'll be a strong candidate for Governor of Massachusetts. Otherwise, Charles Murray may be given another opportunity for the Republican nomination. The Democratic primary would be interesting considering the sheer number of potential nominees, none of whom has tremendous starpower. I don't see the nomination going to Warren.

If Nathan Deal doesn't want to run for reelection, I think the Republican party's nomination will go to Karen Handel. As far as conservative primary voters are concerned, she came out ahead during the Komen mess.

Nikki Haley's approval ratings are low, and she was elected Governor in a fairly close race in a very Republican state in a very Republican year. So she could be vulnerable to a rematch with Vincent Shaheen, especially in circumstances unfavorable to Republicans, such as President Romney presiding over a bad economy.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Indy Texas on June 24, 2012, 01:09:25 PM

You've basically just named the entire Democratic bench, which sums up the mess the Texas Democrats have become.

They can only win a statewide office here if their candidate: (1) has plenty of money and the ability to raise plenty more; (2) hasn't served in Congress and thus can't be tied to Obama, the national Democratic Party or Washington in general; (3) has the respect of the business community, rather than just trial lawyers and black and Hispanic interest groups.

Bill White met all three of these criteria and he still lost. Chet Edwards meets none of these criteria.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 10, 2012, 08:25:50 PM
*bump*

Any revised thoughts on this, now that the 2012 election has passed?


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: limac333 on November 10, 2012, 10:41:33 PM
*bump*

Any revised thoughts on this, now that the 2012 election has passed?


Kirk Dillard announced he is running for Governor of Illinois, and Governor Quinn stated that he is running for re-election.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Vosem on November 11, 2012, 12:42:29 AM
Alabama: Robert Bentley will be seeking reelection. The Democrats will not be seriously contesting Alabama, but apparently Bentley may be challenged in the Republican primary (which is tantamount to election); Bradley Byrne, who came in 2nd in 2010, and Tim James, who was 3rd, are both 'considering' challenging Bentley.

Alaska: Governor Parnell may seek reelection, but there are rumors he will instead challenge Begich for the state's Senate seat. In that case, the state's Lt. Gov., who's name is escaping me at the moment, and Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan become the frontrunners for the Republican nomination, which is likely to amount to election in red Alaska.

Arizona: Jan Brewer will be term-limited. The likeliest Republican candidate seems to be Lt. Gov./Secretary of State (the offices are the same thing in Arizona) Ken Bennett, while the likeliest Democrat seems to be the Mayor of Tempe, Neil Giuliano. Bennett would start off as the favorite.

Arkansas: Mike Beebe will be term-limited. The two main Democratic candidates are former Lt. Gov. Bill Halter and Attorney General Dustin McDaniel (Senator Pryor can have this if he feels it'd be easier than the Senate, as well). Rep. Tim Griffin is considered the Republican rising star in Arkansas, but he's considered likelier to run for the Senate, with Lt. Gov. Mark Darr as a prominent possibility for Governor.

California: The Republican bench in California sucks so badly that even the California Democrats are favored to win this election. Brown probably gets the nomination if he wants it, but he's not exactly young, so he may not. Of the other Democrats, famously eloquent Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom really, really wants it, so he'll probably go for it. The Republicans will have a hyped nominee who will lose, most likely.

Colorado: Hickenlooper is really popular, polls show him ahead by a lot and over 50, and it's doubtful he'll be seriously challenged.

Connecticut: Dan Malloy will be challenged in 2014 by businessman Tom Foley, who he barely defeated in 2010. Malloy, in spite of being not being very popular, begins as a slight favorite because Connecticut is still very deep blue. Hopefully Republicans will be able to restore the death penalty here.

Florida: Rick Scott will be seeking reelection. He is personally unpopular, but he is very rich and the Democratic bench in Florida is weak and divided. State Senate Minority Leader Nan Rich has already announced she will be running against Scott; polling has shown her beating him but not by very much. The two most prominent Democratic possibilities here are former CFO Alex Sink and ex-Governor Charlie Crist. The Mayor of Orlando, Buddy Dyer, could also run. Sink starts off lagging against any of the Democratic candidates but he is not to be underestimated.

Georgia: Governor Deal is probably planning to seek reelection. Perhaps a Democrat will challenge him, perhaps he will be challenged in the primary. Or perhaps not. This race has really, really yet to take shape.

Hawaii: Governor Abercrombie is despised. He is a top candidate for least popular Governor in the country. However, Hawaii Republicans are not a strong bunch. Rumor is is that ex-Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona, who lost in 2010, may try again in 2014. No polling has been conducted. This one could be a sleeper no one's talking about, because Abercrombie is hated.

Idaho: Governor Otter will be reelected. Basically a certainty.

Illinois: Pat Quinn just barely won against a downstate conservative Republican in 2010 and he's only gotten less popular since. He may be challenged in the primary -- Clinton/Obama administrations figure William Daley seems to be the likeliest candidate -- but whether or not that will work out for the Democrats remains to be seen. The Republican field is no less murky. State Senator Kirk Dillard, who lost the gubernatorial primary in 2010 by just a few hundred votes (and would almost certainly have been elected had he won), really really really wants to be Governor and in fact has already declared his campaign. State Treasurer Dan Rutherford, however, also wants to be Governor pretty badly. U.S. Representative Aaron Schock doesn't want to be Governor quite as badly, but he still feels a promotion like that would be nice. If Durbin retires, some of these candidates may migrate to the Senate race, depending on polling numbers. Democrats shouldn't be fooled by Illinois's safe-Democratic presidential status -- the state GOP is very alive and is perfectly capable of winning statewide races when it has good candidates.

Iowa: Governor Branstad may seek reelection in 2014, but he would be quite vulnerable if he did so. Polling has shown him mired in low single digits, leading U.S. Representative Bruce Braley (who is probably more interested in Harkin's Senate seat) and ex-Governor Chet Culver (who may be interested in a rematch) very narrowly, Culver within the margin of error, and losing to current U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, though again within the margin of error. Vilsack may be favored outright against Branstad should he choose to run.

Kansas: Governor Brownback seems pretty safe.

Maine: Should independent Eliot Cutler run again, polling indicates he would lead Governor lePage in the low single digits. Rumor is Cutler's running again.

Maryland: Martin O'Malley is term-limited. The Republicans won't win here. There is a large Democratic field, but the frontrunner to succeed O'Malley is Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown.

Massachusetts: Deval Patrick is term-limited. There is a large Democratic field, in which the most prominent candidate is state Attorney General Martha Coakley, who was defeated in a Senate bid in 2010. The only strong Republican possibility is former U.S. Senator Scott Brown, who might be mildly favored. Otherwise it's a safe Dem seat.

Michigan: It's actually pretty unclear whether or not Snyder will seek reelection. The Democratic bench here is absolutely screwed to all hell. A Michigan poster earlier in this thread says that most likely Snyder won't seek reelection and the new Republican nominee will be state Attorney General Bill Schuette, who will then likely win. (Fun fact: Schuette actually served in the House, 1985-1991, before seeking election to the Senate in 1990 and being defeated. He then served in the Michigan state Senate and on the Michigan Supreme Court before becoming AG in 2010; he's either served in or ran for a large variety of offices in Michigan). In the absence of any better theory, I guess we can go with that.

Minnesota: Governor Dayton is likely to run for reelection. He is fairly popular, so he may receive only a middling challenger of some sort.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Vosem on November 11, 2012, 12:43:47 AM
Nebraska: Heineman is term-limited. He will be succeeded by Republican Lt. Gov., Rick Sheehy.

Nevada: Governor Sandoval will be seeking reelection. He is very, very popular; polling has shown him over 50 and leading by double-digits some of the state's most prominent Democrats, state Secretary of State Ross Miller and Attorney General Catherine Masto. I doubt he will be seriously challenged.

New Hampshire: New Hampshire has a very large, very deep Republican bench that I'm sure would just love to challenge Governor Hassan. There's a very big list on Wikipedia's page of Republicans that declined to run for in 2012 -- look at it. Some of them may be attracted to the Senate race, though.

New Mexico: Governor Martinez is very popular. State Attorney General Gary King has already announced he will be challenging her, but polling has shown her above 50 and leading King by double-digits. State Auditor Hector Balderas, who lost the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in 2012, is also considered a potential candidate, but polling shows he would do even worse than King.

New York: Cuomo is safe and won't have any trouble.

Ohio: Polling has shown Governor Kasich mired in the low 40s. He leads ex-Governor Ted Strickland and ex-Attorney General Richard Cordray, both within the margin of error, and some other candidates, including Columbus Mayor Mike Coleman, U.S. Representative Tim Ryan, and former U.S. Representative Dennis Kucinich, outside the margin of error but by unimpressive margins. Cordray will run against Kasich and starts perhaps mildly favored.

Oklahoma: Can't think of any reason Fallin wouldn't be reelected.

Oregon: Polling has shown Governor Kitzhaber mired in the low 40s, leading U.S. Representative Greg Walden within the margin of error, but other candidates by rather more. Kitzhaber is vulnerable, but he may be saved by the fact that Merkley seems to be a more attractive target. Considering how neither Kitzhaber nor Merkley seems to be very well-liked, Oregon could be a state that would be responsive to a Republican wave. (I've noted, many times, that I am bullish on Republican chances of beating Merkley in 2014).

Pennsylvania: Phil has raised the possibility of Governor Corbett not seeking reelection in another thread, so I guess that's a possibility. Not certain who Republicans might run to replace him -- Gerlach comes to mind since he was so eager to run statewide in 2010. The Democratic frontrunner here seems to be ex-U.S. Representative Joe Sestak, though it's important to keep in mind U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr., really really wants to be Governor and may run if he sees an opening.

Rhode Island: Governor Chafee is not very well-liked. By anyone. At all. State Auditor Ernest Almonte has already declared his candidacy for Governor, and there are many other interested Democrats. Considering how close he came to an upset in 2010, Republicans are hoping John Robitaille agrees to run again. This could end up being a competitive three-way race, or safe for any of the three parties; we'll see what polling shows.

South Carolina: Governor Haley is not very popular, and apparently she may be challenged in the primary by a multitude of candidates, of whom the likeliest is state Treasurer Curtis Loftis. No polling has been conducted here, so it's largely guesswork, though we know that 2010 Democratic candidate Vincent Sheheen is planning a second run for the Governor's Mansion, and considering how close he came in '10 and how the Republicans in South Carolina seem unable to get along, he could very well win.

South Dakota: No reason for Daugaard to lose.

Tennessee: On that note, no reason for Haslam to lose, either.

Texas: Rick Perry will have been Governor for 14 years by the time of this election; the longest-serving in the entire country. It is common knowledge across the state that Attorney General Greg Abbott plans to challenge Perry, who is not very popular, in the primary, but Perry starts as a favorite. Democrats have hyped San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro for a gubernatorial bid, but it probably won't happen in '14, and if it does it won't be successful.

Vermont: After just barely winning in 2010 and just barely surviving a bear encounter in 2011, Governor Shumlin has decided to try and implement a single-payer system for Vermont. Unfortunately, Vermont is the sort of state where that would be fairly popular, so Shumlin is safe for reelection. A shame; he's probably the incumbent whose defeat I'd most enjoy in 2014.

Wisconsin: After all the hullaballoo with the recalls, Democrats actually seem quite uninterested in challenging Walker. There is no obvious Democratic frontrunner and there has been little speculation surrounding this race. Of the midwestern GOP governors, Walker could be the most highly favored, which is kind of ironic considering what a polarizing figure he is.

Wyoming: No reason for Mead not to be reelected...


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on November 11, 2012, 01:14:18 AM
The Castro brother who's Mayor of San Antonio is Julian. Joaquin is the Congressman-elect.

Shumlin is thankfully one of the safest Democratic governors in the country, along with Hickenlooper.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on November 11, 2012, 01:17:59 AM
The death penalty is going to be hard to reinstate here with the current legislature, which I don't see changing any time soon.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Zioneer on November 11, 2012, 01:27:09 AM
Why exactly is Abercrombie hated in Hawaii?

And I'm thankful that Shumlin is one of the safest governors in the country; we need Vermont to act as a laboratory to show the rest of the country that single-payer healthcare actually does work.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: Vosem on November 11, 2012, 09:46:46 AM
The Castro brother who's Mayor of San Antonio is Julian. Joaquin is the Congressman-elect.

Thank you for pointing that one out; my mistake.

Shumlin is thankfully one of the safest Democratic governors in the country

I know...:(


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on November 12, 2012, 07:10:46 PM
Shumlin is thankfully one of the safest Democratic governors in the country

I know...:(

If it makes you feel any better, he does tend to noticeably underperform other Vermont Democrats, just not by enough for anyone to win against him.

Why do you support the death penalty? I wouldn't have expected that from you.


Title: Re: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?
Post by: BM on November 13, 2012, 05:23:52 AM
I'm also curious about why Abercrombie is so hated.