Talk Elections

Obama leads with 47% while Romney is just 1% behind at 46% in the telephone poll of 750 likely voters in the November General Election.

The automated survey was conducted Monday June 18, 2012 before Romney started his bus tour through the state.

The poll has a Margin of Error + or – 3.58% at the 95% level of confidence. The survey was conducted by Mitchell Research for the media and was not paid for by any campaigns or committees.

http://www.clickondetroit.com/blob/view/-/15181308/data/1/-/14ggiwlz/-/Presidential-Poll.pdf

Mitchell is a very good pollster.

The nailed the 2010 governor and downballot races and also the 2008 races.

And they also had Romney winning the MI GOP primary by a hair.

Looks like MI might be really tightening.

Lord have mercy...

A month ago, I would have thought Michigan to be out of reach. That is certainly not the case.

:) Maybe this will actually turn into an interesting election.

Spoke too soon. Make that 4 polls.

McCain was doing well here as well at this point.

Fools gold, it's true that McCain was polling well here at this point in 2008 and even closer to November. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Michigan

And this poll concedes this in the memo

Perhaps, but I'm expecting an overall national shift of 1 to 3 points towards Romney between now and November.

That's four polls that have shown a tossup in Michigan (EPIC-MRA, Foster McCollum White, We Ask America, Mitchell Research) while Rasmussen shows Obama +8. What is going on?

Those four pollsters may not be the most reliable. The EPIC-MRA polls this cycle have shown a Republican lean, and We Ask America showed a Republican lean in their Wisconsin polling.

Foster McCollum White reported their results to two decimal places!

Michigan is a state that would naturally be heavily outraged by recent obama administration moves on homosexuality and immigration.

Michigan isn't particularly hostile to gay rights. The Republican state legislature is intent more on turning Michigan into a Duty-to-Starve ("Right-to-Work") state in all but name, but that can be turned around fast.  Immigration is one of the possible solutions to the state's sagging real estate values. I see no reason to believe that Michigan would be going against nationwide trends on immigration or gay rights.

I'd love to see PPP, Marist, or Quinnipiac do a poll not only on Presidential support but also on gay rights and immigration in Michigan. 

Duty to starve. That's a funny one.

While it's only June, these poll results certainly are surprising. I fully expect Obama to win Michigan in November, but it looks like he might need to actually put some effort into winning the state.

Two words: auto rescue

Yep. Give the 0/50 record, I agree with you. :b:

Michigan was one of the first states to rally to defend marriage, and has one of the strongest measures on the books. And who the heck is going to immigrate TO michigan?

Michigan's Macomb county is of course the prime example of Reagan Democrats, as stan Greenberg noted. Democrats fled to Reagan due to the following, which Obama has thankfully repeated.



Democratic defectors left the Democrats because they believed the party had turned away from them, prioritizing special interests, particularly unions and minorities over middle class interests.

While that will help him get the dwindling numbers of UAW members and retirees, it might hurt him among people who view unionized auto workers as lazy overpaid whiners.

Who already vote overwhelmingly Republican. If one has a job tangentally related to the auto industry or providing goods and services to it's employees--i.e. most of Michigan.....

Sorry, I don't see Romney winning Michigan. Will probably be closer than in 2008 but Obama will win it. Romney is barely a native son, their economy is improving and Romney was against the auto bailout.

If Romney wins Michigan I'll eat one of those bacon Sundae's from Burger King.

There aren't many of these people in Michigan and those who do already vote Republican. The auto rescue helped the state's economy and will help Obama.

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2620120618010

Michigan is a swing state and always has been, so this doesn't surprise me.  Remember, Al Gore only carried Michigan by five points, and John Kerry only carried it by three points.