Talk Elections

51-43 Obama

The pollster surveyed 810 likely general election voters during the same dates, with a +/- 3.4 percent margin of error.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/07/poll-thompson-l.php

And interestingly enough, this is exactly what the recall exit polls showed.

Likewise, if I remember, yesterday he said that he isn't very concerned about the results of the exit polls.

Obama's had some decent polls lately. The jobs report really backfired on the GOP. Again.

Romney does not win Wisconsin unless he wins nationwide comfortably.

Wisconsin Republicans took the last few weeks off (after the recall), are just starting to pay attention to the senate primary, and have yet to put any focus on the presidential race.  Given that, Obama seems to be up 1-to-3 points.  Something like 51-49.   

How do you take two polls: one saying Obama +8 and the other Obama +6, and say he "seems to be up 1-to-3 points"? Clearly two different polls have shown he's up by at least 5.

Keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better.

Obama polls at 51, 50, 49, 48 etc in Wisconsin.  Romney polls between 44 and 46ish.  Several polls showed the state 45-45.  The state is distracted and Romney hasn't done anything in the state yet.  Obama is hitting a hard ceiling and Romney is on his floor. 
Lets say Obama out preforms the polls and gets 52% of the vote.  What will Romney get then? 48?  I mean 4 points would be generous to Obama as far as extrapolating to November from these numbers.     

If you think five points less than in 2008 is a "hard ceiling", I don't know what to say to you.
Someone has no idea about how undecided voters work.

Lol!

So you think Obama will out preform Romney with undecideds?  LOL.  That is not how it works. 

Denial is one of the 5 stages of grief.

So you think Romney will win over 80% of undecideds? LOL. That is not how it works.

No.  Romney is likely to gain a few percent of the undecides who typically vote republican and will win at least 60% of the remaining undecideds.  Pretty routine sequence of events really.    

52-48, which you claimed as best-case for Obama, means Romney wins over 80% of undecideds. Elementary-school maths.

Maybe read the first part of the sentence.  If the race is 48-45 Obama and Romney wins over 60% undecideds, than what is the final outcome? 

You mean the part that you added after I posted?
And where do you get this number from? Random wishful thinking?

A composite of polls, intelligence, and trends.  Obama is up, but he isn't above 50 and he isn't up 8.  Just like Tammy Baldwin isn't tied with Tommy Thompson like PPP said yesterday.  Use your head with this stuff, everyone knows the weights or sample might be slightly off.     

OK, guy. Obama got 56% in 2008, if you believe his ceiling is 52% and that this poll, as well as the PPP one, is overestimating him, wait and see in november what happens ;). I think that even if he loses the election, Obama will carry Wisconsin by at least 4-6 points.

Umm ok, I think Obama can lose and possibly win Wisconsin by 0-3 points.  Like 2000 and  2004.  That is probably his best case scenario given that from 2010 through 2012 no democrat has won statewide in Wisconsin and given how strong the nature of that trend has been.  2008 looks to be the obvious outlier in the last 12 year period.           

PPP had President Obama up 6... unless Mitt Romney chose to nominate Senator Paul Ryan, in which case the margin is only 1 for President Obama. I chose to go with that in my map for the Presidential election until Mitt Romney makes a definitive choice. I would do the same with Ohio if Mitt went with Ron Portman.

I may believe that Paul Ryan would be a disastrous choice for Mitt Romney; the Ryan budget that promotes the privatization of Social Security and Medicare would probably lose Florida and Arizona. If I were President Obama I would be delighted to put Wisconsin at risk to make Florida a sure thing.

The record for active Representatives as VP nominees in a Presidential race is execrable in recent years.   The last two, both of which came from electoral powerhouses as States (in fact, the same state -- New York!), lost their own states. Geraldine Ferraro may have had the worst campaigner for President as a running mate for decades, but Jack Kemp was a first-rate pol. In view of what happened in 2000 maybe the best thing that could have happened  would have been for Kemp to win both the Republican nomination and the Presidency and effectively consigning you-know-who to an oblivion that would have well served America.

Paul Ryan basically is a new version of Jack Kemp.  Ryan was a Kemp congressional aide.  

Also, the polling aggregate for Wisconsin is 47- 44 Obama right now, so my model of 48 - 45 is really unreasonable.  O, wait...   

Wisconsin GOP households:

"Honey, we just got through that whole recall debacle, let's take a few weeks off and say we'll vote for Obama if the pollsters call."

No Democrat won statewide in a lean-D state in 1) the worst election for Democrats in modern history and 2) recalls? I'm stunned.

The polling aggregate is currently composed of two-thirds junk polls.

I think we're all waiting for AmericanNation to break Nate Silver's monopoly on models and predictions ;)

At work, on vacation, or not paying attention.  That's a huge number of people the first week of July.  ...They just started noticing the R US Senate primary this week.  Most of the white middle class is out on a jet ski over the 4th. 
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And only Republicans go on vacation the first week of July?

...if you add this poll and the PPP poll released the same day to the aggregate it's 50-43 Obama!

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