Talk Elections

What is causing Iowa to flirt with the GOP? The Atlas aggregate of polls has had a pure tossup here for a while now, with Ohio leaning Democrat. More-so, many users predictions have Iowa as going Republican while OH and VA vote for Obama.

The only reason I've heard for Iowa being so close is that it has few ethnic minorities, surely that isn't the only factor at play here?

It's the early caucus effect. There was an early hotly contested caucus during the winter and lots of people registered to vote GOP during that period.

After trending Democratic in prior years, the state has been trending Republican since 2008.   Republicans have regained the voter registration lead in Iowa and won the governor's mansion in 2010.   Contrary to NVGonzalez's claim, the Republican voter registration advantage was reestablished this April - after the caucuses - and continues to grow. 

Iowa is trending back toward its swing state status - remember, Bush narrowly lost Iowa in 2000 and won it in 2004.  2008 is looking like the aberration.

Drop in Obama support among white working class voters.

That would show more in Ohio than in Iowa.

The dissipating of the Anti-War vote. Obama may be being hurt by his own success in ending the Iraq war and starting the draw down in Afghanistan . Iowa has historically been one of the most anti-war states in the union  and in 2008 the wars were front and center.

It has little to do with Mitt and much to do with the Democrats war on whites.

Unfortunately this is not true. GOP registration barely budged in fall 2011 and winter 2012. It started climbing heavily in spring 2012.

I know I shouldn't bite but "war on whites?".

Not a word.

Could be.  But, all things considered, that war is pretty overdue. 

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"Whites," shorthand for "White Russian," a sweet cocktail made with vodka, Kahlua, and cream. Very popular in the Midwest.

War on Whites would imply that Obama is a Red, but if it had to do with that it would, as Snowstalker said, show more in plenty of other places.

Omg.... I had this before and this... this is good.

Amen

depends what type of white. If you're talking about the Jesse Helms breed then yes. But if you're talking of the John Lindsay breed, then no.

It most certainly would not.

My favorite.

Woho, White Russian!

Not particularly relevant, but the little county in Iowa I am familiar with rather intimately now, Madison County, in the most recent primary, just went massively GOP.  Latham was getting 4 times as many votes as Boswell (even in the City of Winterset, which is the most Dem part of the county; in the old days, the county seats in rural America tended to be the most Pub, but those days seem to be over), and the whole GOP ticket was swamping the Dems by 2 to 1 margins or more. Madison is a lean GOP county, but it seems to be trending Pub rather substantially. I suspect it is more than the Dems just not showing up to vote.

So, the Democrats have a war on White Russian? OH MY GOD, we're at war with Belarus?

I just realized that trying to argue with all the nonsense Krazen is posting is pretty much like making fun of an intelectually impartial person. Therefore, I say no more.

That is the case across the entire state of course.


http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2012/primary/canvsummary.pdf


In Polk County Tom Latham got twice as many votes as Boswell. Conservatives in Iowa are enraged by recent Democrat policy and ready to vote!


The description of Obama as a red is strangely accurate.