Talk Elections

Well, I was away for a while, due a myriad of awful mishappens, but as things are getting better, so Brazilian politics start getting hotter. Campaining already started and It will be awfully noisy in the next three months.

For those who are not aware, local administrations here have heavily devolved powers and mayoralties, specially on capitals and big cities, are fiercily disputed - for their visibility, machines and, as ever at this country, pork.

Big news are the slow tearing of PT and PSB apart, due a lot of local and national reasons, after 23 years being together or playing the same game with different candidates; the investigation on mobster Carlinhos Cachoeira activities, which is hurting politicians on pratically the whole political spectrum; the even receding of right-wing parties to São Paulo, as the centre-left ones become more centrist and, thus, the reinforcement of the once inane left.

I'll try to post, daily, overview and analisys of the disputes, city by city, and relevance to national politics, starting tomorrow. Comments and info are wellcomed.

How are Dilma and the PT faring in polls these times ? Last time I heard of it, she was still very popular.

She is very popular, even more than Lula was on his second year of administration, but more with middle class voters who probably voted Serra. She is appeasing to the only true opposition in the country, our ultra right press, doing some right wing policies and, at the same time, pretending to be harsh with those crooks around her.

Her developmentist policies are more in the way of the military regime than on the social policies Lula had implemented. I feel that the traditional base of progressive educated middle classers are a bit suspicious, but this is a personal evaluation, It doesn't appear on polls. Public Universities are on strike and the government refused initially to talk, menaced supending wages, and used some anti-union expressions that were kinda odd, coming from a party that started with unionized workers. Since then, many areas in the public administration went on strike, too, but the press handles It in the most fascist fashion, protecting harsh measures from the government and attacking the strikers, and, at the same time, using some of the claims against the government. Kinda surreal, I don't know how this is going to affect her. Probably, It will deepen her appeal to conservative middle classers and alienate progressives. If these ones will stay with her due a lack of alternatives or if they'll turn left is something that only time will tell.

The PT, on the other hand, is going downwards, as the press successfully presents them as backwards authoritarian, corrupted commies, even if the very truth is that they never were nearer to third way policies than now. Also the toucans are presented as competent administrators who saved the country, even if they had completely broke It in the turn of the millennium.

But local elections are usually very personalized and political machines play a strong role. So, national trends and struggles must be heavily tempered with local flavour. There are initial polls, which I'll post and try to explain and analyse.

just lost my post. only tomorrow, now.

Mandelson would be proud.

I'm supporting Patrus Ananias in BH. My whole family will vote for Lacerda...

Any chance of a PT primary challenge to Dilma in 2014?

Initially, I'll support him, too, but I'm waiting to see PT's urban policies (which were the same crap Lacerda's doing, during Pimentel's tenure, only less harsh). I was invited to colaborate with the 'political platform' (sorry, I don't know the proper term for that, in english, and I'm in some hurry to Google It), but I'll only make my mind thursday, after a meeting with a group of Architects and Engineers who are discussing the policies. If they maintain that crap, I'll be between nil or PSOL. Probably nil.
The fun part is that the ones supporting citizenship-oriented policies are the populists of PMDB. They have the only city counselor (vereador) who doesn't suck, but, in the other hand, He's son of one of the crookiest vereadores ever.
So, nothing enjoyable for someone who support citizen oriented policies.


Only from Lula himself. Very unprobable.

The name to be observed is Eduardo Campos, Pernambuco's PSB governor. Specially if He elects his nobody in Recife and Lamerda in BH.

I've been a bad parent to this thread. I promise nurturing It today yet.

Not today...
Social service will end taking It from me.

One week to go, and things are not looking good for both major parties (PT and PSDB). The ongoing situation here in São Paulo, where I live, is quite emblematic.

PSDB's José Serra, in what probably is the last electoral run of his life, is on the fight of his life to make the runoff. PT's candidate, Fernando Haddad, has failed to gain the expected traction, despite huge efforts by Lula, but still has a shot to make the runoff. Both are facing a tough fight against Celso Russomano, a consumer's advocate and former congressman who's suddenly a sensation. There are some controversies surrounding him, but he's still the favorite, as his rejection ratings are much lower than Serra's and Haddad's.

Below are IBOPE's and Datafolha's polls.

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IBOPE shows a bleaker scenario for Serra, of course, but in 2004, 2008 and 2010 they made some big mistakes in PT's favor, so I tend to believe Datafolha a little bit more. Still, it's within the margin of error, so it'll be a nervous election day as ballots are counted in totally different areas of the town.

The situation in São Paulo is similar to what's happening in many places around the country. In big cities like Porto Alegre, Recife and Fortaleza there's a good chance the winner will be someone who's not supported by the PT or by the PSDB. Who's profiting is Pernambuco's Governor Eduardo Campos, who's seen as a sleeper candidate for the Presidency in 2014. His party (PSB) is currently in the government coalition, but many party leaders believe they could break free and go alone in 2014 and 2018. Also, the PMDB will probably emerge even bigger this time out, what is rather scary.

I was actually talking about this with someone the other day. Eduardo Campos actually came up! But holy [inks], I thought Serra had this locked up.

Serra do bem!

Patrus continua crescendo e Haddad tb :)

Dilma went to her first rally at that campaign for Haddad. Although Russomanno supports her, she was pressed to go to campaign for Haddad.
My list of endorsements:
Feira de Santana (my hometown) - Zé Neto (PT), my personal friend
Salvador (city where I'm living) - Nelson Pelegrino (PT)
Sao Paulo - Celso Russomanno (PRB) (I'm PT supporter but I don't like Haddad).
Recife - Humberto Costa (PT)
Fortaleza - Elmano de Freitas (I took even a pic with mayor Luizianne Lins who endorses him)
Rio de Janeiro - Marcelo Freixo (PSOL)
Belem do Para - Edimilson Rodrigues (PSOL)
Manaus - Vanessa Grazziotin (PC do B - she'll defeat Artur Virgilio again and again).
Porto Alegre - Manuela D'ávilla (PC do B)
Curitiba - Ratinho Junior (PSC - his father is Brazilian Jerry Springer)
Sao Luis - Edvaldo Holanda Jr. (PTC - current mayor is PSDB and PT is supported by Sarney's gang).
Belo Horizonte - Patrus Ananias (PT).
I went to rally with Lula here in Salvador.

The problem with Serra is that, while he was a well rated Mayor, he left the office after just some 15 months to run for Governor of São Paulo. The fact that he won that election handly was a statement of his popularity in the city and in the state. The biggest problem for him are the dismal approval ratings of his Vice Mayor, mr. Gilberto Kassab (who was elected to a term of his own in 2008), and the fear that he'll leave office to run for something else in 2014 (what I find highly unlikely, as Geraldo Alckmin has a nice shot at being reelected governor, and Aécio Neves is basically a lock to be PSDB's nominee for the Presidency).

Still, I think it was a mistake to let Serra run again this year. He's a tired polititian now (and, as a supporter of him, it's hard for me to admit that). PSDB feared they couldn't create a new leader in time for october, but I do believe that with Alckmin, Serra, Aloysio Nunes and all the PSDB troops here in São Paulo, the PSDB would have created a contender for this election. They had strong local politicians lining up for a primary earlier this year, and I really liked the chances of Andrea Matarazzo and specially Bruno Covas (the grandson of Mario Covas and current State Secratary of Environment).

The latest IBOPE numbers for São Paulo have reportedly leaked, Russomano bled 7 points and now has 27%, Serra at 19% and Haddad at 18%. Gabriel Chalita reached 10% for the first time. The number of undecideds is still high. Many expected Russomano's votes from low income areas to go to Haddad, but it seems that people are just tired of the PT-PSDB polarization, thus the gain Chalita had. Numbers for the other state capitals will be released in a few minutes.

Today's Datafolha - Russomano 25%, Serra 23%, Haddad 19%, Chalita 11%. Many expected Russomano would lose only votes from low income areas that would migrate to Haddad, but I believe he's also losing votes from middle class voters who were tired of the PSDB/PT duo - and those are going to Serra and Chalita. This will get interesting because in a potential Russomano-Serra runoff Haddad will definitely support Russomano (who'll probably get Lula support as well), and Chalita could end up supporting Serra (he's very close to Geraldo Alckmin and the PMDB has backed the PSDB in São Paulo over the last years.

Chalita never would support Serra. He left PSDB because of him.

Election Night in 2012
Curitiba: A upset is going to happen... Incumbent mayor Luciano Ducci is going to be out of run-off. Fruet (PDT) got to be in run-off with Ratinho Jr. (PSC).
Paes (PMDB) is going to win a epic landslide against Freixo, 69-26. Rodrigo Maia is going to be smashed.
Fernando Haddad (PT) and Jose Serra (PSDB) will get in runoff, defeating favourite Celso Russomanno (PRB)

Who would win a Haddad-Serra runoff? Who would Russomanno support?

Russomanno is most likely to support Haddad because PRB is supporter of Dilma.
Carlos Amastha (PP) is first mayor of capitol city to win, in Palmas.

Serra's negative ratings are high today, so Haddad is a slight favorite. If Serra can bring back middle class voters and successfully attack Haddad on the "Mensalão scandal", he could well turn this around. São Paulo still tilts PSDB/center-right.

What happened in Curitiba is bizarre. Even the exit polls got it all wrong. A huge blow for PSB's Eduardo Campos national project. A huge blow for PSDB's Beto Richa prospects of a reelection in Paraná in 2014. A huge win for Dilma's Chief of Staff Gleisi Hoffman, who will be a candidate in Paraná in 2014.

Sorry for so many questions, but I'm curious and Brazilian politics is a little hard to understand for an outsider like me.

What caused Russomanno to collapse so quickly?

You say that Russomanno will probably endorse Haddad, and earlier that Chalita would endorse Haddad as well. Would most of their voters follow their endorsements or would they not care?

What's the overall national situation looking like?

The opinion of someone from São Paulo, who's been following the dirt flying on the TV and on the web for the last few days.

1- Russomano was a popular consumer's advocate who had a program in TV. However, much about his earlier life was unknown. People finally discovered his breakthrough happened when he filmed his wife dying due to poor care in a hospital. They also found embarrassing videos of him in a Mardi Gras, grabbing breasts and butts of semi-naked women. Plus, Russomano was supported by the Universal Church, and in the end Catholics mobilized in favor of Serra and Chalita.

2- People in Brazil don't usually follow those endorsements. It MIGHT happen, but I wouldn't count on it, because both Serra and Haddad are very well funded and have strong supporters (Serra will have popular governor Alckmin, popular senator Aloysio Nunes, and FHC who's well seen in São Paulo, Haddad will have popular presidents Lula and Dilma).

3- A few things are striking me. I will come with my observations on the national scene soon.

AND Marcio Lacerda wins, avoiding a run-off :(

However, we may get SP, as Chalita has already supported Haddad and Russomano will probably do the same thing ^^

Well, if Haddad wins, Chalita probably gets the Ministry of Education.

I think Serra gets some momentum now. This will be a horse race 'till the end.

Oh, and my council candidate, Andrea Matarazzo, had the second highest performance in the city. Well done!

In party of victory in Recife, Campos (PSB) is together with his former foe Jarbas Vasconcellos (PMDB).

My recap of the election, as promised. Many things to be noticed.

1- The electoral system used in Brazil is broken. This election was probably the less enthusiastic since the redemocratization process. Irrelevant, disgustingly clientelistic, non-ideological parties have grown bigger, winning more town halls and council seats than ever. Town halls are now used for agreements between local, state-level and national-level leaders. In the end, even the PMDB, the traditional clientelistic party from Brazil lost seats to the PSD, the PTB, the PR and many other tiny parties. A barrier clause is desperately needed, but since the STF sank a barrier clause once ruling it unconstitutional, I'm not optimistic here.

2- What I said above fully applies to big cities - even though the PT and the PSDB are still a bit stronger on those cities, many of them have been won by smallish parties.

3- The PMDB is still the elephant in the room in Brazilian politics, ruling over 1000 cities around the country, including some big ones (and if you consider cities where they were on the winning coalition, and cities where they'll compose the base in the council, I'd estimate they'll be in government in over 50% of the cities around the country, not to mention their solid relations with many state governments and their connection with Dilma's government. Still, they're not happy. More on this later.

4- An expected performance for the PT, which is now a bit smaller in big cities (nothing to be scared about), but definitely bigger in small cities in many states. They are specially strong in Bahia right now, where 8 years of Jaques Wagner made them very strong. Those new mayors from small cities are largely non-ideological, but are still important for state elections and to negotiate benefits between potential allies.

5- The PSDB lost a few towns, but nothing to be worried about. They are rock solid as the strongest party in the South-eastern region, specially in São Paulo and Minas Gerais. They also profited from state governments to strengthen their position in Paraná, Goiás and Pará, and had an OK performance even in the North-eastern region (where they cruised in places like Maceió and Jaboatão dos Guararapes).

6- Big wins for the PSB, which is now solidly the party of the North-east. A loss in Curitiba ended up hurting the party, but that was largely overshadowed by an easy win in Belo Horizonte. They could also end up winning runoffs big cities from very different places, like Campinas and Cuiabá. More on them and their leader soon.

7- The PSD is a clear winner. They have a good shot at winning runoffs in cities like Florianópolis and Ribeirão Preto. But their clear strength comes from small towns. Remember, the party was recently created from a split in the DEM. And they quickly became much larger then the decadent DEM. In fact, the PSD consolidated much of the areas where the PFL/DEM was always strong (the North-east, some Center-west and North states and Santa Catarina in the South). With their totally clientelistic and non-ideological base, they could slowly become what the PFL used to be 15 years ago.

8- This was probably the final straw for the DEM, which is now reduced to virtual irrelevance (even if ACM Neto wins in Salvador). They might end up being absorbed by the PSDB to form a stronger opposition party. They could also merge with the PMDB and go back to their clientelistic days. Plus, the party might just keeps shrinking as oppositionists jump to the PSDB and clientelists jump to other parties.

9- Aecio Neves elected his man in Belo Horizonte, and kept the PSDB strong in his state. He was everywhere in the country over the last few days. His role as a contender for the Palácio do Planalto in 2014 is obvious. If he runs as expected, Minas Gerais is shaping up to be the decisive swing state.

10- Eduardo Campos is also much stronger, and he's obviously tired of being a supporting actor for the PT. He knows he'll be an underdog in 2014, but he also knows that 4 years after being in state government he will be weaker, not to mention the PT can build a contender in 2018 and leave Campos for death. I'm not sure if he'll run, but my guess is that he will. He could use the campaign to get the national recognition he lacks, and then come stronger in 2018. Ciro Gomes did that in 1998 and could have won in 2002 if not for some stupid blunders.

11- If Eduardo Campos runs for president, one wild rumour is that the PMDB could even support him if Dilma shows some weakness. The PMDB is unhappy because Dilma dislikes to negotiate cabinet positions to ally parties, what makes them angry. Some local and state-level PMDB members are also angry with their relationship with the federal government. While our powerful Vice-President Temer would like to keep their partnership with the PT, he'll have to make his party stronger in the coalition.

12- If PT decides their coalition is more important than their tight hold to the government, they could kick Temer out of the presidential ticket in 2014, inviting Eduardo Campos to it. From there, he'd be built as the coalition candidate for 2018. Don't expect that, though. PT wants to keep power for as long as they can. Plus, they need the PMDB to win the election and to govern the country. They cannot piss them off that much.

13- One rumour that has been gaining strength refers to a PSDB-PSB super Aecio Neves-Eduardo Campos or Eduardo-Campos-Aecio Neves ticket in 2014. Aecio Neves and Eduardo Campos are good friends. PSDB's strength in the South-East is equaled by PSB's strength in the North-east. That would be a VERY competitive ticket. Plus, both parties have similar platforms (PSB has moved to the center-left over the last few years, the came center-left PSDB inhabits). Also, FHC has already endorsed the idea, and he could lead PSDB leaders to this direction. The problem today is that being Vice-President in Brazil is largely irrelevant, but if they could come up with a strong deal for both, it could be very possible. Who'd head the ticket is the million dollar question (I'd expect it to be Aecio, but Eduardo Campos could look fresher than a PSDB candidate). Overall, I believe this ticket would come with a major propose of political reform, what would be a huge plus.

14- A final rumour for 2014. Ciro Gomes was pissed off in 2010, when the PSB decided to support Dilma's election campaign instead of promoting his presidential run. He's still very pissed, specially with his brother, Cid Gomes, who governs Ceará, and who said he'll fully support Dilma in 2014. His name recognition is still high around the country, and he's still seen as a third way politician by many. For this reason, another unsatisfied coalition member, the PDT, has invited him to join their ranks to be their 2014 candidate. The PDT used to be a strongly leftist, unionised party that lost strength and became more independent with senators like Cristovam Buarque and Pedro Taques. Ciro Gomes is undecided right now, as he's obviously waiting to see what Eduardo Campos will do.

15- There's a strong sense of unhappiness around. A political reform is strongly needed. Over 15% of the voters didn't turn out yesterday, a high number for a country where voting is mandatory. In São Paulo, over 10% of voters chose "none of the above" options, and 17% didn't turn out. In Rio, abstention reached 20%. One thing that bugs and saddens me is the growth of clientelism. The other is that there's simply no center-right or right wing party in Brazil today. Hopefully things will change, but I'm not optimistic.

Thanks Paleobrazilian and everyone else providing info on this election. It's been really informative and interesting to read about.

One last question I have is why the clientelistic parties have so much support? Why do people vote for the PMDB or other parties that have no real ideology or platform? It doesn't really make sense to me.

The clue is in the name.

There's this, besides voting in Brazil is heavily based on personality and people rather than partisan labels which are entirely meaningless. Besides, these "parties" shower goodies on people and that helps to maintain their standing.

Random question: is the incumbent PSB mayor of Belo Horizonte allied with the local centre-right or something?

Lacerda is from a left-wing background. He was fired from Minas' phone company because his opposition to military regime and built a business empire. He became a supporter of Ciro Gomes and entered politics. He went to be Aecio's Secretary and got to be elected mayor. He ran to the right of Patrus Ananias.

More than this. What happens today in Brazil is the result of our republican history. It's a long process that must be understood to allow people understand our politics.

When Brazil became a republic, in 1889, this was a rural country where distances were huge and people were far away from the power. Brazil was a republic loosely inspired on the American federalist system, which gave local administrations a lot of power. This is how it all started.

In those days, local governments were ruled by local land owners, powerful producers of coffee, cattle, cocoa, cotton, etc. And that happened anywhere in the country, from the North to the South, from the East to the West. Those were our "colonels". They used all sorts of of arguments to be voted, including, of course, physical intimidation.

This model started to change when Getulio Vargas became president in 1930. First, Vargas brought the populist model that made Brazilian politics extremely personality-based. Second, Vargas started to bring industries to this country, slowly making this a more urban country with a more diverse economy. This was a slow process that started with Vargas and had influence in this country 'till the 80s, at least.

Thus, Brazil slowly became a 2-worlds country - one based on big cities, with liberal voters, and more modern politicians. Meanwhile, in small towns and rural areas, those "colonels" became paternalistic leaders with an authoritarian streak.

This polarization was easily seen during the military regime. We had the military-supported ARENA, which was composed mostly by local leaders from rural areas (like the Sarneys in Maranhão, the Collors in Alagoas, the Bornhausens in Santa Catarina, just to name a few). Meanwhile, we had slightly more progressive, democracy minded politicians at the allowed opposition, composed by the MDB.

When the imposed bipartisanship fell in the early 80's, the MDB split into a lot of smaller parties. The leftist members of the MDB helped created the PT, the PDT and the PCdoB, parties that were strongly connected to trade unions with a solid leftist ideology. The PTB also emerged from the PTB, originally as the inheritors of Vargas' legacy, then as a basically centrist party. What remained there formed the centrist PMDB, which was composed by those from small cities and rural areas from the MDB.

Meanwhile, the ARENA became the PDS, which then split into the large PFL and into the smaller parties PL and PRP. The PL and the PRP were supposed to be right wing parties, in opposition to the PFL, which quickly became a clientelist party that started to work with the PMDB. In the end, though, all of them became clientelists.

The last major shake-up on the post-dictatorship scenario happened in 1988, when the more liberal, social democrat factions of the PMDB left the party to form the PSDB. They were specially sickened with the PMDB support to José Sarney, and tried to bring a "new way" for Brazilian politics.

So, basically, when we reached the 90's, you had 2 faces of the same coin in the PMDB and the PFL. Also, many of the parties created by then, like the PTB, the PPB, and the PL moved to the center, just focusing on their local leaders. Those parties became home of the local leaders, and, with a huge base in both congressional houses, they started to control national politics. That's how the clientelist scenario in Brazil consolidated, and even with the political rearrangements we saw with FHC and Lula, the big picture has not changed.

Answering your random question: Marcio Lacerda broke up with the PT and is now a man of Aecio Neves.

Once again, thanks. That was very informative.

Marcio Lacerda used the support of righties to win, but he's a centre-left mayor. He's not bad at all, but I think Patrus was better for BH.

In SP, I'm almost sure Haddad will win. Incredible. Dilma and Haddad began their campaigns with 5% of the vote in polls and both of them won/will win because Lula campaigned for them.  Lula 2018!!

Well, sorry for starting then abandoning the thread. Not having too much time to the forum, lately.
Some thoughts...


Vasconcellos' problems were never with him, exactly... And the new generation of PE oligarchs loves him, once He's not doing his grandpa's policies.


The PSDB doesn't inhabit the center-left at all. Their self stiling of a social-democratic party, initially, was much more a matter of sinistrisme than anything, and It was gone soon. Pimenta da Veiga/Azeredo's administration (the first the party has), was somewhat focused on the city elites and real estate speculator's interests (despite, thankfully, not to the same extant Lacerda's is). Covas was calling for policies focused on financial markets since his first gubernatorial attempt. During FHC first tenure, what remained of social-democrats fled or got irrelevant, except for small pockets in the NE. Placing them on the center-left is only a talking point of internet-based ultra-reactionary pundits.

As for Campos-Neves alliance, this is their original project. It was devised by Arraes in order to counterbalance SP elite's control over national affairs. But, in the form It is shaping now, It's becoming more of a way for that group to retain power. It will depend more on the evolution of Dilma's compromise with banks than on the two heirs individual wishes.

Campos, anyway, is clearly the most wise politician around. He managed his candidates to appeal to the new middle-class, suspicious of the PSDB's neoliberal policies while pissed off with PT's scandals.


Well, Julio, if you consider:

- dismantling successful social programs;
- campaining against tips to street children;
- attacking buskers and beggars, closing facilities for homeless;
- militarising the municipal guard;
- putting sharp stones under viaducts in order to avoid homeless seeking a place to rest;
- curbing the budget for culture, dismantling traditional cultural events;
- expelling shantytown dwellers from areas they've been occupying for two decades, using brutal police force, to allow its use by the real state market, once those areas are regaining value;
- altering the city's zoning in order to facilitate real estate developing, but with the same existant infrastructure;
- facilitating the demolition of built cultural heritage;
- spending heavily in viaducts, avenues widening and other car-focused solutions;
- ignoring environment studies in order to facilitate construction;
- allowing verticalization on protected areas and previously house-only neighbourhoods;
- selling streets in consolidated neighbourhoods to entrepreneurs in order to facilitate megaprojects (which in turn will have negative impacts on the neighbourhood);
- solemnly ignoring the city's masterplan, once It has directions that doesn't satisfy the real estate market;
- curbing public servants wages, even when the city finances are doing good;
- ignoring education and public health infrastructure;
- governing essentially for the elite, with policies focused exclusively on giving profits to that elite;

as being center-left, then I guess you're right.

Thanks for the information, Batcumba. I thought he was centre-left only because my grandpa didn't vote for him, as he feels Lacerda is a closeted Petista... But, reading what you said about him, he seems to be anything but a leftie. But, ironically, each year I go to BH, I find the city safer and more modern.

I'll have to politely disagree on this point.

While FHC definitely moved away from the left as the years went by, he and his party never moved beyond what most people would call the "center" around the world. Many scholars in Brazil try to rate him as a right-winger, but that's only because he adopted some liberal economic policies, specially privatizations and the fiscal responsibility law, exactly the same thing many acclaimed left-wing administrations around the world did (like Chile's Concertación). FHC took many left-wing policies when president, a few of them panned by Lula in 2002 and later strongly embraced by him, like the Bolsa Escola and the Vale Gás, which Lula transformed into the Bolsa Família (but not before trying to replace them with the unsuccessful Fome Zero program). Plus, FHC was key on the establishment of human rights in Brazil, taking full responsibility for the crimes committed by the military regime, and recognizing the jurisdiction of the Interamerican Court of Human Rights. He also adopted the "concessão de uso especial" to legalize the situation of those who invaded public areas. He managed to break down the military ministries, finally put the military under civilian control. He criminalized torture. He and his health minister, who lefties also despise (José Serra, for those who don't know), took many left-wing policies, introducing generic drugs, financing a huge prevention-and-treatment AIDS program and passing anti-tobacco laws. Basically, of course he was not a left-winger like Lula, but he was no right-winger as well, IMHO.

Another reason why many try to label the PSDB as a right-wing party, IMO, is the fact that until the mid-to-late 90s the PT, the PCdoB and the PDT were still strongly influenced by their radicals, creating a sharp contrast to FHC's policies. This contrast was pretty much gone by 2002, as José Dirceu kicked most radicals out of the PT to get the necessary support to elect Lula in 2002.

Plus, it's important to remember that in 2010 the PSDB ran to the left of the PT on many important platform aspects, like Social Security (Serra wanted to abolish the "fator previdenciário", something that would inject a huge cost to the INSS) and Central Bank independence (Serra wanted to have tight oversight of Central Bank, what made some say he'd be the de facto President of the Central Bank).

You mentioned Covas. Covas definitely went much farther than anyone in his party would, but you have to remember he always appealed to different voters, specially those in São Paulo, who see center-right policies way more kindly. Many of his economic policies in São Paulo were taken to save the state from the near bankruptcy caused by thieves like Paulo Maluf and Quercia. In the end, his policies were so successful that the PSDB will complete 20 years in power in São Paulo in 2014, with a strong chance of reaching 24 years, as Alckmin will be running for reelection as a quite popular incumbent. Plus, while moving forward with many privatizations and public-private partnerships, SP's PSDB also adopted many social policies, like Renda Cidadã, Bom Prato, free medicine, etc. Covas and Alckmin ran strongly on this when Maluf and José Genoíno threatened to win in 1998 and 2002, and were successful.

Finally, I wouldn't call those unsatisfied because Brazil has no right-wing alternatives "lunatic reactionaries". I felt quite insulted by that, I must say. I'm currently doing my LLM on the ICC, believe those involved with human rights violations over the 60s and 70s should be severely punished and that all social rights given by the Constitution should be never taken away and I'm a "reactionary" just because I feel my country has no active political right? The fact is that our politics tilt so much to the left today in universities, trade unions, etc. that ANYTHING to the right of the center is labelled "reactionary". The only groups of people that COULD be called rightists today are the Instituto Millenium (which has some strong sponsors, but nearly null political presence) and the Mises Brazil Institute (a largely irrelevant institute devoted to Austrian Economics) That's sad. Look at Chile. Colombia. Mexico. All of them have right wing parties that say they are right wing parties. Brazil has none of that. Even Paulo Maluf says he's a communist nowadays, for God's sake. When FHC said in 2011 the PSDB should embrace more economically-conservative policies, going for a starker contrast to the PT, his party basically ran away from him. And this is not going to change, as the PT and specially human sciences teachers successfully demonized anything resembling a political right.

Runoff day tomorrow! This will be very very interesting. 50 cities around the country will have a runoff, and I estimate at least 15-20 of them are extremely close, some of them pure tossups. All parties will get some quality wins and painful losses.

For example, the PT is set to win in São Paulo, but will probably endure painful losses in Salvador, Campinas and Manaus. The PSDB, meanwhile, will lose São Paulo, but will retake Belém, win Manaus in a huge landslide, and win Teresina. Overall, those 2 will remain the biggest big city-parties, holding about 30-35 cities inside the "top-83" (a group of 83 cities with over 200.000 voters, which together hold about 40% of the voters in Brazil, and, for this reason, end up being the most important cities for presidential elections).

There are 2 big PT-PSB tossups right now (both 50%-50% according to IBOPE), one in Cuiabá, and the other one in the highly strategical Fortaleza - if the PSB wins both, Eduardo Campos will emerge even stronger for 2014 (people in the know say he's already planning his breakup with Dilma's government).

By this same hour tomorrow we'll know for good. Tomorrow's results could have some big implications for the upcoming national election, and many important state elections.

Counting underway, MANY big news developing, MANY interesting stories, MANY tight races... 2014 will be FUN for political junkies in Brazil! =P

I just created this neat graphic showing the 6 parties which elected the biggest number of top-83 Mayors, and where they were before the election. Interesting trends.

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A full recap, with predictions for 2013 and 2014 soon, maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow.

Great!!

Lula, for the second time, got his candidate elected (the first was Dilma)!!

Oh, and, I'm sorry, Rod. Carlismo is back in Salvador...

We can't see the image, that's a link to some Hotmail file.

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Can you see it now?

He got his candidate elected, but his strategy failed in Salvador, Fortaleza, Manaus, Campinas, Vitória, Belo Horizonte... Luckily for him, he got it right where it mattered most for his party.

In Manaus, Vanessa couldn't win, it was not about Lula. He can't solve all problems.
In BH, well, you have a mayor who was supported by the PT 4 years ago, and PSDB is strong in Minas. So, considering all that, I don't think Patrus got a bad result at all.

At least you have good news from Brazil. Did you know that Municipal Elections were held in Chile yesterday? The oposition achieved a victory over the Piñera coalition.

Trying to recap the election, state-by-state, and then on a national note, I'll review region-by region (focusing on the key states) and end with the national scenario.

I'll start with the southeast.

Sâo Paulo

The PT is obviously delighted that they managed to retake the city of São Paulo after 12 years. Actually they seem to have a 12 year-thing in São Paulo, won in 1988 for the first time, then won again against an aged politician in 2000, and in 2012 once again won against and aged politician. They had expected gains in São Paulo's metro area, the area where the party was born and where trade unions still play a big hole (big wins in São Bernardo do Campo and Osasco, nice win in Guarulhos, good wins in Mauá and Santo André as well). The only loss they'll regret is Diadema, a city the party held for 30 straight years, the first city the PT ever won, back in 1982.


The PSDB, meanwhile, kept their super-strength in mid and small-sized towns through the state. In the biggest cities in the interior, they lost 2 cities they held for 20 years (Jundiaí and São José dos Campos), but retained all the other important cities they held (Franca, Sorocaba and Piracicaba). They were also in the coalitions that on über-important Campinas and São José do Rio Preto. Plus, they won back Taubaté and now have in their hands for the first time ever the extremely important city of Santos, which, due to recent economic and social trends (Santos is the home city of the "Pre-Salt" oil), will probably offset the losses in Jundiaí and São José dos Campos (cities that will strongly vote PSDB in 2014 anyway) - the elected mayor of Santos, BTW, is called Paulo Alexandre Barbosa, and he strongly impressed me (young, fluid speaker, unafraid to talk about specifics), seems like the kind of leader the party badly needs.

For 2014, Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) will run for reelection, the favorite right now, but there's no denying the PT will come strongly after him (one big frustration the PT has is the fact that they never won the state government). Alckmin has many supporting parties in the State Congress, and many of them will probably support him in 2014 (the PTB, the PPS and the DEM are certain to endorse him, IMO, and the PRB and the PDT are likely as well). Meanwhile, the PT will have the PP, the PSD and the PC do B on their side, putting things quite even.

The unknown thing for 2014 is what the PMDB, the PSB and the PR will do in this race. The PMDB endorsed Alckmin in 2010, due to its old leader Orestes Quercia. Now Quercia is dead (RIP), and São Paulo's PMDB is run by Michel Temer - Dilma's veep, who'd love to please her, to keep his place in her ticket in 2014. The problem for him is that local PMDB leaders strongly count on the State Government. They could end up going on their on in the 1st ballot (they have a known name in Paulo Skaf).

The PSB, meanwhile, will wait for national instructions from Eduardo Campos - they compose Alckmin's base in the State Congress, and PSDB and PSB ran many important races together through the state, winning Campinas and São José do Rio Preto on the way. If the national PSB stays allied to the PT, they'll support the PT locally, if they do anything different nationally, the local PSB will endorse Alckmin, IMO.

Finally, the PR is a smaller party that has been working with both Dilma and Alckmin. They endorsed Serra this year, and could go anywhere in 2012.

My predictions for 2014 follow:

PSDB's ticket:

Governor: Geraldo Alckmin (no contest).
Vice Governor: many people are interested in this spot. The PSDB wants to have a candidate of their own here, to allow the party to have a natural candidate for the Government in 2018. I identified 3 candidates which are relatively young and could be big vote-getters for the PSDB here: one is Bruno Covas, (some already see him as a shoo-in), Alckmin's state Secretary of the Environment, and the grandson of Mario Covas (the man Alckmin owes his political life to); the second one is Vitor Lippi, a strongly popular 2 term mayor of Sorocaba; and the third one is Fernando Capez (state congressman, former Prosecutor, well known Criminal Law specialist). If the PSDB is forced to negotiate this spot, then the VG candidate could be PRB's Celso Russomano, maybe DEM's Rodrigo Garcia, perhaps PTB's Campos Machado, maybe even PMDB's Paulo Skaf if they're endorsing Alckmin.
Senator: José Serra MAY try, but I think the PSDB will want someone else here, perhaps Ricardo Trípoli or José Aníbal. I do think, though, the PSDB will negotiate this one to have a bigger chance of having the VG spot. This could be an opening to Celso Russomano, Campos Machado, Paulo Skaf, etc.

PT's ticket:

Governor: bloody battle between São Bernardo do Campo Mayor Luiz Marinho, Dilma's Minister of Health Alexandre Padilha, Senator Marta Suplicy and Dilma's Minister of Education Aloisio Mercadante. Marinho and Padilha are the favorites, as they are seen as new politicians in the party, opposed to Suplicy and Mercadante, who have collected a few losses for the PT over the last years. Marinho is a former trade union leader, while Padilha is a respected Medicine Professor (different styles, as you can see). Lula likes Marinho a lot, because they have similar stories, but he also knows Padilha could probably run stronger in a state like São Paulo.
VG: I think the PT will have to negotiate this spot, probably to the PSD, that could then appoint Ribeirão Preto's mayor Darcy Vera, or Congressman Ricardo Izar Junior. The PC do B could appoint Netinho. This could also be Paulo Skaf or Gabriel Chalita if the PMDB joins this ticket. If this is a PT double ticket, this could be Marinho-Padilha or vice-versa, or maybe they could go with their deep bench of Congressmen.
Sen: PT's Eduardo Suplicy is up to reelection. They'd love to get ridden of him, IMO, because he's quite old and kind of a troublemaker for his party sometimes. They have some strong Congressmen to run for this, if Suplicy retires (like Candido Vaccarezza and Arlindo Chinaglia). If they don't run for this, I could see PC do B's Netinho going for this one.

Rio de Janeiro:

The PMDB is now basically a small city party through the country, but there's one stage where they rule everything (big cities, small cities and the state government, of course): Rio de Janeiro. State Governor Sergio Cabral (PMDB) won basically everything he wanted to win, and humiliated his opposition in the city of Rio. He's now thinking about getting a Ministry in Dilma's cabinet, and maybe (just maybe) replacing Michel Temer in Dilma's ticket for 2014.

The only minor losses he had, BTW, were in Campos and São Gonçalo, where candidates supported by his foe Anthony Garotinho won.

Cabral cannot run for reelection. He's preparing his veep, Luiz Fernando Pezão (PMDB), to run for the job. The PT could have a competitive candidate in Senator Lindbergh Farias, but they might be forced to endorse Pezão (and there'll be some controversy about Farias' eligibility, as he's been recently ruled ineligible) - thus, I'll not assemble a PT ticket in this prediction. The national opposition (PSDB/DEM) will probably join forces with former governor Anthony Garotinho (PR), who's been trying to stage a comeback for a while.

PMDB's ticket:

Governor: Luiz Fernando Pezão (no contest).
Vice Governor: negotiable spot. The PMDB will want Eduardo Paes (PMDB's Rio mayor) to run for this in 2018, so they'll be looking for someone with no big political ambition to take this spot.
Senator: PP's Francisco Dornelles will be up for reelection. He'll probably get support from the PMDB.

PR's ticket:

Governor: Anthony Garotinho (if he's eligible). If ineligible, his wife, Rosinha Garotinho.
Vice Governor: No clue. Maybe the DEM will get this, as Garotinho will need the support of Rio's councilman Cesar Maia (DEM).
Senator: Maybe Rodrigo Maia (DEM)? Defeating Dornelles will be tough.

Minas Gerais:

Aecio Neves decided to change his strategy here. Instead of trying to increase the number of big cities  the PSDB holds through the state, he decided to get as many allies as possible through the state, basically endorsing anyone facing the PT. He knows his state could decided the national election in 2014, so he wants to be well seen by mayors through the state, as he goes for the presidency. He did win a big number of the battles he got involved with, which is a plus for him (even though loses in Governador Valadares, Ipatinga, Uberaba and Uberlândia will hurt).

The PT, meanwhile, won 3 big cities in Governador Valadares, Ipatinga (they won everything in the Steel Valley) and Uberlândia. Still, they expected to do much better to battle Aecio in 2014.

It's a given that Marcio Lacerda (PSB) will leave his job to run for the state government, with full support from Aecio Neves. His adversary might be Patrus Ananias, as he didn't do badly this year. But I do think Dilma likes Fernando Pimentel more - a close friend of hers. Pimentel seems to be the favorite right now.

I don't know exactly what the PMDB will do here. They have a potential candidate in Leonardo Quintão. I do think they'll probably endorse the PT here.

Current governor Antonio Anastasia (PSDB) cannot run for reelection.

PSB's ticket:

Governor: Marcio Lacerda.
Vice Governor: No clue. Aecio will try to put someone he likes here.
Senator: Anastasia will run for this, IMO, and will be strongly favored.

PT's ticket:

Governor: Pimentel or Ananias. It's a coin toss.
Vice Governor: Could we have a Pimentel-Ananias ticket? That would make the PT strong. Maybe Leonardo Quintão, maybe Wellington Salgado (?), maybe someone appointed by the PSD (they'll probably endorse the PT in Minas).
Senator: This seat is currently held by a weak politician called Clesio Andrade (PR). The PT should try to get this seat. Why not letting Pimentel or Ananias run for this?

Espírito Santo:

The smallest southeastern state, usually forgotten by its neighbours. Governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) never got too involved with this election. He'll be an overwhelming favorite to win reelection in 2014.

Moving to the South...

Paraná:

This is an interesting state, because it has a long history of polarized, 2-way elections - many of them ridiculously tight. This has been true for the last 20 years, and will be true in 2014.

For the first time, though, this will be a PT x PSDB battle in this state. In fact, neither of those parties used to be that strong in the state, as they mostly relied on alliances to run here. A big change came in 2004, when Beto Richa (PSDB), son of former Governor José Richa was handily elected Mayor of Curitiba. Running on a strong administration, he was reelected in 2008, and then elected Governor in 2010 after a bloody battle inside his party and on the general election.

To get the nomination spot, Richa had to kick Senator Alvaro Dias (PSDB) out of the run, avoiding a primary. That left Alvaro Dias so pissed that he eventually endorsed his brother, Osmar Dias (PDT), during the race. Osmar Dias had the support of the PT, and despite a lacklustre start, nearly defeated the always-favored Richa.

Richa made quite a few mistakes this year. Basically he gave in contesting big cities, instead promoting PSDB candidates in small cities (where he had OK results). But the big cities ended up causing a lot of pain for him, as he chose losing sides in the 2 biggest cities in the state (Curitiba and Londrina). He's been constantly criticized by PSDB leaders, because they expected him to grow into a future national leader of the party, and he's been fumbling the ball constantly as he tries desperately to get allies for his reelection campaign. Alvaro Dias has been extremely vocal about his shortcomings.

The biggest winner this cycle here is the PT, specially Dilma's Chief of Staff Gleisi Hoffmann. She endorsed Gustavo Fruet (PDT, now elected Mayor of Curitiba) early on. That was a risky pick, because Fruet used to be a PSDB member and vocal critic of Lula, who left the party annoyed with Richa. This win made her extremely strong in the state, and now she's geared up for what should be a straight up, 50-50 battle between PT and PSDB.

PSDB's ticket:

Governor: Beto Richa.
Vice Governor: Flavio Arns (PSDB) currently holds the job, and he's very respected and well known in the state. Richa might feel forced to negotiate the spot to boost his alliance, though.
Senator: Alvaro Dias. Richa cannot mess up with him this time out. Not to mention he's still very popular in the state, as a 3 term Senator and Governor in the 80s.

PT's ticket:

Governor: Gleisi Hoffmann.
Vice Governor: An ally party, I guess. The PDT used to be strong here.
Senator: Osmar Dias won't run against his brother. I could see the PMDB joining the PT here. If so, they could have a competitive candidate called Rafael Greca, former Mayor of Curitiba and FHC's Minister twice.

Rio Grande do Sul:

This is Dilma's "official" home state (like Mittens, this home state thing became an issue for her this year, lol). Rio Grande do Sul is Brazil's most "ideological" state - a strong left and many conservative voters. Also, a tradition of disliking their elected politicians, an a cursed Governor seat, as no one ever got reelected here.

The PT made a mistake here, as they promoted a weak candidate in Porto Alegre while PDT and PC do B, national allies, had stronger candidates. In the end, José Fortunati (PDT) cruised to reelection. Through the state, a mixed bag for most parties - PT, PDT, PMDB, PP and PSDB all had reasons to be happy and angry.

It's hard to predict what will happen in 2014. PT currently controls the state, with governor Tarso Genro. He might have better reelecton prospects then his predecessors, but this is far from a given. Former Mayor of Porto Alegre José Fogaça (PMDB) could go for it (the local PMDB is way more independent then the local PT, and usually opposed to the PT). If he doesn't, the local party has a very deep bench of candidates in the state (like Caxias do Sul Mayor Ivo Sartori and former Governor Germano Rigotto). Maybe Fortunati will leave the city for the state government, but if he doesn't his party will play a big role here anyway.

After a failed 2006-2010 government led by Yeda Crusius, the PSDB has declined here (even with an important win in Pelotas yesterday, led by a ridiculously young candidate who has everything to be a new local leader here), thus I predict they'll endorse anyone who faces the PT.

Finally, one last candidate will probably be sitting Senator Ana Amelia (PP).

This will probably be the most fractured race among the most important states. I'm not confident about making predictions here, other than those I made above.

Santa Catarina:

The final Southern state will probably be a 3-way battle. Incumbent Governor Raimundo Colombo (PSD) will run for reelection. He's got solid support, and elected his candidate, Cesar Junior, in Florianópolis. Meanwhile, the PMDB has a candidate waiting in the wings, 2 term Florianópolis Mayor Dario Berger, who couldn't elected his successor, but managed to get an unexpected win in Joinville, the biggest city in the state. Finally, the PSDB feels it has a strong candidate, Senator Paulo Bauer. They won Blumenau in a huge landslide, so they are confident here.

2 things will be important to see here, before making projections. One is waiting to see if the PMDB will let Berger run or if they'll decide to endorse Colombo, forcing Berger to migrate to the PDT to run (Senator Luiz Henrique, from the PMDB, is a strong ally of Colombo, and doesn't want Berger to run). The second thing to watch is what the PT will do here. Santa Catarina is a state where they are quite weak right now, after 2 failed campaigns in 2010 and 2012.

I'm loving you analysis.

I thought Richa was one of the most popular Governors of Brazil. Good to know he isn't. Hoffmann is one of my favourites.

In RS, Ana Amélia lost supporters after she endorsed Manuela D'Avila. I think that she prefers to stay in Brasilia, although she would be very electable. If she refuses to run, retiring mayors Fetter Jr. (PP-Pelotas) and Sartori (PMDB-Caxias do Sul) can run. Fogaça can try another run too. For Senate, I believe that favourite is Beto Albuquerque (PSB). In Pelotas, if young state deputy José Antonio "Catarina" Palladini got into run-off, it would be hard.
In Paraná, I don't believe that Greca will try Senate. He failed even to get a seat at state legislature. Many say that Richa plans to force Dias out of ticket, as he had one agreement with Rubens Bueno (PPS), failed running-mate of Ducci. He can go with one member of Barros family of PP as running-mate. Senate candidate for Hoffman would be most probably former senator Osmar Dias (PDT). Ratinho Jr. (PSC) can be running-mate for all candidates as he would be a good asset and he hasn't senatorial age.
In Santa Catarina, Florianopolis' win is in a sea of defeats for Colombo's PSD. They failed to win in Joinville, Blumenau and Colombo's home city of Lages. But they won in Berger's stronghold of São José.
Alexandre Padilha, although from São Paulo, votes in Santarém, Pará. A good candidate for running-mate in São Paulo would be one of Ota couple (Congresswoman Keiko and future Town Councillor Masataka). They're parents of a guy who was killed in a kidnapping.
For Minas governorship, Aecio can offer spot to PSB to attract Campos' support or try for PSDB with Castro family (Danilo and Rodrigo-father and son), congressman Marcos Pestana and even his sister Andrea Neves. PSDB supported candidates failed to make into runoff in some cities and Aecio played role of kingmaker, supporting PMDB in Juiz de Fora and even PC do B in Betim against PT.

Interesting comments. I actually read Ana Amelia wants to run, and many in her party were frustrated about endorsing a PC do B candidate (specially Percival Puggina, of course). I think they'll run someone because they fear getting too small here. The local PP is against a PP-PSD merger, so they'll have to make a statement here.

About Padilha, he'll move back his electoral affiliation to São Paulo this year, I guess. At least he's truly from São Paulo, unlike Ciro Gomes, lol. And the Otas could really be useful for whoever has the PSB on their side. It's probably too early to predict that, though.

Oh, and Richa is just the dumbest politician in this country right now. If he kicks Alvaro Dias out he'll lose any support he still had within his party. If he could get Osmar Dias to run in his ticket, Alvaro would probably feel ok about staying out, but it's clear Osmar will be on Hoffmann's side. Maybe Alvaro will switch parties again? I love him, but his presidential dreams are just a pipe dream he'll never realize, and I'm sure he'll have no role in Aecio's presidential ticket.

Now I'll try to move to the Northeast, keeping up with my guesstimates. Correct me whenever necessary. I'll start with your home state! =P

Bahia:

After 6 years in power, the PT now has many cities under their control here, basically putting ACM's control of those enclaves to an end. Of course the DEM had the 2 biggest wins in the state here, but there's nothing really new on ACM Neto and Jose Ronaldo, I guess. At least now they'll have a springboard from where they can try to rebuild, locally and nationally.

Current Governor Jaques Wagner (PT) will probably endorse his Secretary and former President of Petrobrás José Sergio Gabrielli, someone Lula likes a lot as well. Meanwhile, the DEM and the PSDB will help PMDB's Geddel Vieira Lima out. Geddel's has been on FHC's and Lula's side here, so it would be no surprise if he switched sides again. He's currently a Vice-President of Caixa Economica Federal (Brazil's fully state owned bank). Dilma wanted him to leave the job on his own because he endorsed ACM Neto against the PT candidate in Salvador, but he said he'll only leave if she fires him. But she's uncomfortable doing this, as that could make the PMDB unhappy, unless they keep the job.

I was just reading a piece of news saying many parties that currently support Wagner will split and promote their own candidates (PDT, PP, PSB and PSD, for example). This could be exactly what Geddel needs. Divide and conquer.

This will probably be a very tight race, as Wagner approvals aren't great right now.

PT's ticket:

Governor: José Sergio Gabrielli. Some names inside the party are also interested, but
Vice Governor: They'll negotiate it.
Senator: Will João Durval (PDT) run for reelection at 85? If not, maybe Jaques Wagner resigns his governor job early in 2014 to run (unless his Vice Governor Otto Alencar-PSD decides to run on his own, a situation where Wagner would have to stay in his job all the way to the end).

PMDB's ticket:

Governor: Geddel Vieira Lima.
Vice Governor: Someone from the DEM would be my guess right now. But their bench is so thin within the state right now...
Senator: A guess: Jutahy Junior (PSDB). If not, Antonio Imbassahy (PSDB).

Ceará:


PSB and PT used to be friends here. Not anymore. Governor Cid Gomes (PSB) and his brother Ciro Gomes (PSB, former Governor, Mayor of Fortaleza, Finances Minister, etc.) faced the PT on a bloody battle for Fortaleza, and won. They'll now have a rematch in 2014.

Cid Gomes cannot run for reelection. The Gomes' clan will promote the candidacy of Leonidas Cristino (PSB), former Mayor of Sobral and currently inside Dilma's cabinet as the Port Secretary. He'll be fired soon. Not only Dilma dislikes the job he's done so far (he's been conducing a complicated project of semi-privatization of the national ports), he's already been recognized as a threat to the PT in Ceará.

Meanwhile, the PT has 3 natural candidates who'll battle it out for the nomination. The favorite right now is 2-term Mayor of Fortaleza Luizianne Lins. She never had much support within his party (she's from a minority, more leftist fraction from the PT called Socialist Democracy), and never had great approval ratings, but still managed to be elected and reelected, always facing uphill battles. Despite low approval ratings, she still managed to get her candidate to a runoff in Fortaleza, and in the end her candidate nearly won. She's a proven campaigner, that will be a huge plus for her.

The other possibilities here are Senator José Pimentel (PT) and Federal Congressman José Guimarães (PT). They'd all be strong candidates in what will be a tight affair.

What will the national opposition do here I don't know. PSDB used to be strong here, but they're ridiculously weak now. If the Aecio Neves-Eduardo Campos super ticket comes to life, they'll endorse Cristino, otherwise, they might just chose to keep being crushed.

Inacio Arruda (PC do B) will be up for reelection for the Senate. He ran an awful campaign for Fortaleza this year. Anyway, he'll be coveted by both the PSB and the PT.

Pernambuco:

So Governor Eduardo Campos (PSB) wants to be president. Great for him. Things are looking excellent for him right now. But he'll have to leave the situation in his state resolved until 2014.

Maybe Eduardo Campos will promote someone from his Cabinet to the job, maybe a congressman... If the PSDB and the PSB join forces in 2014, I could see him endorsing Jaboatão Mayor Elias Gomes (PSDB) for the job, as a way to gain leverage as he negotiates with the national PSDB. I know Sergio Guerra, PSDB's national chairman, would love to be Governor, but I wouldn't count on hi,

The local PT is in a disarray. They probably wasted the 3 strongest leaders they had in the state this year: Humberto Costa, João da Costa and Mauricio Rands. This one will hurt them.

This state, as many, will be decided by alliances. One specially important will come from the PMDB. Their Senator Jarbas Vasconcellos will be up for reelection. He'll probably follow whatever the PSB does.

Sergipe:

Incumbent Governor Marcelo Déda cannot run for reelection. He's currently undergoing treatment for a stomach cancer, and hopefully will get well soon. There'll be many interested in the job, PT wants to hold the seat, while Vice Governor Jackson Barreto and Senator Antonio Carlos Valadares will be interested as well. The opposition had a big win in Aracaju this year, so maybe this will be a pendulum swing in 2014.

Alagoas:

This is the strongest PSDB in the region right now. Congressman Rui Palmeira (PSDB) has easily elected Mayor of Maceió, and Governor Teotônio Vilela Filho is popular and elected many mayors through the state. Vilela Filho will endorse Senator Benedito de Lira (PP), while putting a PSDB candidate for Vice Governor. He'll also run for the Senate, and try to unseat our beloved (lol) Former President Fernando Collor de Mello (PTB). The national situation is somewhat weak here, we'll see.

Paraíba:

I don't see Ricardo Coutinho (PSB) losing this. Not even if Senator and former Governor Cassio Cunha Lima (PSDB) runs for this. The PSDB did have an important win here though, as they won Campina Grande. They also had a humiliating loss in João Pessoa, being knocked out by the PT's Luciano Cartaxo.

Rio Grande do Norte:

Rosalba Ciarlini (DEM) will have a hard time surviving what's coming after her. Their rivals will have many candidates against her. Even her Vice Governor, Robinson Faria (PSD), will probably throw her under the bus and run against her. She did have an important win in Mossoró this time out, though.

Piauí:

Governor Wilson Martins (PSB) can't run for reelection in 2014. That means many will come after the seat, like Elmano Férrer (PTB), Ciro Nogueira (PP), Luciano Nunes (PSDB) and Wellington Dias (PT). No one will get a huge share of the vote on the 1st round, I guess.

Maranhão:

"Sarneyland" might be finally coming to an end. Embratur President Flávio Dino (PC do B) is now stronger after the results in São Luís, and will start his intensive campaign soon. Roseana Sarney (PMDB) can't run for reelection, and I'm unsure about Edison Lobão's (PMDB) health. Maybe Edison Lobão Filho (PMDB) will run. The Sarneys also have many Congressman allied to them, but they all come from the interior, and would run weakly in São Luís. This one will be tough for the PT, as they can't upset Dino, but can't upset the Sarneys as well. João Castelo (PSDB) could play the spoiler.

I have far too much time on my hands. The fact I know half of these people should be embarrassing.

Well, it's a shame about Beto Richa. I always had a soft spot for him. He seemed a good mayor in Curitiba and he didn't seem all too corrupt. Perhaps, but I suppose no amount of managerial aptitude can compensate for political incompetence.

So, to keep you entertained, I'll finish my recap, and later (maybe tomorrow) come up with a national recap and guesstimates for 2014.

I'll start with the North, for now:

Pará:

Here the PSDB won the 2 biggest cities of the state (Belém and Ananindeua), a nice sign for Governor Simão Jatene (PSDB), who'll be up for reelection.  The PSDB won 4 of the last 5 gubernatorial elections here. If they can keep their strong voting tally in the Belém metropolitan area, they'll be in good shape.

The PT held the state government from 2006 to 2010 with Ana Júlia Carepa. But a weak performance ended up dooming her reelection campaign. I don't know if her party will let her run again. Lula was considering Minister of Health Alexandre Padilha here, as he was living in Santarém-PA before taking office in Dilma's Cabinet. But now many feel he'll go back to São Paulo, so no one knows who'll be their candidate.

Another possibility is 2 term Mayor of Belém Duciomar Costa (PTB). His positives as governor were far from great, but the PTB will need some strong results in 2014 to stay alive. He might be their best chance.

Finally, don't count out Edmilson Rodrigues (PSOL). A former 2 term Mayor of Belém as a PT member, he switched parties disgruntled with the PT. He was strongly voted for the State Congress in 2010, and nearly won Belém this year.

A strong PT critic, Senator Mário Couto (PSDB) will be up for reelection in 2014.

Amazonas:

Governor Omar Aziz (PSD) can't run for reelection. That means a huge line of interested politicians will make a move for this seat. Among them, Senator Eduardo Braga (PMDB) and Congresswoman Rebecca Garcia (PP). Senator Alfredo Nascimento (PR) will probably run for reelection. Some wonder if Artur Virgilio (PSDB) will try to go back to the Senate after a landslide win in Manaus, but I think he'll stay put for now, as he'll be once again an influential figure in his party anyway after his win.

Amapá:

Governor Camilo Capiberibe (PSB) was elected after defeating corrupt local leaders that were arrested in the middle of the 2010 electoral process. I feel there's a sense of change here, as one of those corrupt leaders was defeated in his reelection campaign in Macapá, giving the PSOL its first State capital win. Capiberibe endorsed the PSOL's candidate, and I think he can win reelection if he keeps an image of a reformer.

PSOL's Senator Randolfe Rodrigues would be a strong candidate for the state government, but many believe he'll run for the presidency.

The most interesting think to watch here is whether former President and sitting Senator José Sarney (PMDB) will retire after over 20 years in the Senate. He fled from Maranhão to Amapá to keep his political career alive, but struggled to be reelected in 2006. He said in 2011 that both he and his daughter Roseana will retire from politics in 2014, and the rumour is still strong. If true, this will be the end of a generation.

Roraima:

Governor Anchieta Junior (PSDB) can't run for reelection in 2014. Local leaders will battle for the state government, with little to no intervention from national leaders, as Roraima is Brazil's most isolated and least populated State in the country, basically irrelevant for national elections. For the PSDB, it would be great if Anchieta Junior can win a Senate seat here, though.

Tocantins:

Governor Siqueira Campos (PSDB) and Senator Katia Abreu (PSD) will be up for reelection. If they team up, they'll be very tough to beat. Katia Abreu can raise a lot of money, as she's the leader of brazilian agribusiness in the Senate.

Rondônia:

Confúcio Moura (PMDB) will be up for reelection. Former Governor and seating Senator Ivo Cassol (PP) will be ineligible, possibly giving Moura an easy pass.

Acre:

An odd state, where the PT wins local elections and the PSDB wins national elections. Tião Viana (PT) won the State in 2010, and should be reelected in 2014. The PT just elected a new Mayor in Rio Branco, a nice sign for them. The PT will have a Senate seat to defend here as well.

And now, to the Midwest.

Goiás:

Marconi Perillo (PSDB) has been one of the main leaders of his party for the last few years - Governor from 1999 to 2006, Senator from 2007 to 2010, and now Governor again. Unfortunately for him, he was recently involved in ethics charges, so both his political and legal future are in jeopardy. This could be an opening for local oligarch Iris Rezende (PMDB), who at 81 could become Governor for the 3rd time in his life. Even stronger could be the campaign of Paulo Garcia (PT), just reelected Mayor of Goiânia. This will be an excellent pickup opportunity for the PT. It'll be interesting to see whether Senator Cyro Miranda (PSDB) will run for reelection.

Brasília:

Our Federal District has the same rights states have (3 Senators, full representation in the House, its own Judiciary, etc.). However, it's also been marred by the same problems national politics have faced. Former Governor José Roberto Arruda (formerly DEM, now no party) was impeached after a huge corruption scandal was uncovered there. This was an opening to the PT, that reached the State Government with Agnelo Queiroz. Unsurprisingly, Queiroz's administration has been facing some ethics charges as well, so many are lining up for a run, even some in the national government base. Senator Rodrigo Rollemberg (PSB) seems to be very interested, so this might be yet another PT x PSB battle. Joaquim Roriz (PSC) wants to run, but he might be ineligible, and even if eligible, his negatives are probably way too high now, as he used to be a corrupt politician as well. His daughter, District Congresswoman Liliane Roriz (PSD) may be a better choice.

Former Governor and current Senator Cristovam Buarque (PDT) probably wants to run for President again, but that probably won't be possible. If he can't run for President, he may convince his party to let him run for the District Government.

Finally, Senator Gim Argello (PTB) will be up for reelection. Seen as one of the most corrupt members of the Senate, many want him out. Ouch, tough times for state level politicians in Brasília...


Mato Grosso:

Governor Silval Barbosa (PMDB) can't run for reelection. Former Governor and seating Senator Blairo Maggi (PR) has denied interest, but God only knows, I guess. Senator Pedro Taques (PDT) wants to run, he'd run very strongly if he's indeed a candidate. Jayme Campos (DEM) will have a hard time running for reelection for the Senate.

Mato Grosso do Sul:

Incumbent Governor André Puccinelli (PMDB) can't run for reelection. His candidate will be Nelson Trad Filho, known as Nelsinho Trad (PMDB). A 2 term Mayor of Campo Grande, and a member of a local dynasty, he'll be a strong candidate. His main opponent will be strong as well. His name is Delcídio Amaral (PT) and he's currently a leading PT Senator. PMDB and PT have consistently battled for this state over the last few years, and this seemed to be a 2 way race as well until this year elections. A strong performance by Reinaldo Azambuja (PSDB) makes him a possible spoiler, as he's considering whether to run for the State Government or for the Senate right now.

It's unknown who'll be endorsed by just elected Mayor of Campo Grande Alcides Bernal (PP), as both the PT and the PSDB endorsed him in a runoff against Puccinelli's candidate.

It's also unknown whether incumbent Vice Governor Simone Tebet (PMDB, also from a local dynasty) will run for the Senate in 2014. Puccinelli also says he's got plans for Edison Giroto, his failed candidate for Campo Grande. Puccinelli says he'll retire from politics in 2014, but he might just run for the Senate or for the Congress, trying to delay criminal prosecutions he may face after 2014.