Talk Elections

If there is already a previous thread on this poll, feel free to delete it:

Obama Leads Nationwide, But Closer Race in Swing States (http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/02/romneys-personal-image-remains-negative/)

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 16-26, 2012, among 2,508 adults, including 1,956 registered voters, finds that, in keeping with his favorability advantage, Obama continues to hold a sizable lead over Romney in the election contest. Currently, 51% say they support Obama or lean toward him, while 41% support or lean toward Romney. This is largely unchanged from earlier in July and consistent with polling over the course of this year. Across eight Pew Research Center surveys since January, Obama has led Romney by between four and 12 percentage points.

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Obama holds only a four-point edge (48% to 44%) across 12 of this year’s key battleground states. While the data does not allow a state-by-state analysis, the overall balance of support in these closely contested states has remained level in recent months, with Obama slightly ahead, but neither candidate holding a significant advantage.

The relative stability of this race can be seen within most voting blocs as well. Whites have consistently favored Romney over Obama, while minority support for Obama has held relatively steady. As has been the case all year, women favor Obama by a wide margin; currently 56% of women support Obama, while 37% back Romney. Men are more evenly divided (46% Obama, 47% Romney). Obama’s support among voters under 30 remains strong (58% vs. 34% for Romney in the current survey), while voters 65 and older are divided (49% Romney vs. 45% Obama).

Junk.

Wasn't Pew ranked as the worst pollster on Nate Silver's house effect thing?

I wasn't aware of that -can you link me to where you found that information?  I have googled 'Nate Silver and Pew', and according to this site (http://www.politisite.com/2012/06/22/a-breakdown-of-the-most-recent-obama-versus-romney-polls/), in June 2010, he rated Pew well above average.  

I don't know what his June 2012 ratings are.  

Perhaps you would know? 

I think it's gonna be a blowout, folks. This poll is evidence of it.

That changed, apparently. (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/)  Pew is ranked as having a 3.2 point bias for Democrats in their polls.

It's a registered voter poll and a probable outlier given it's showing a movement other polls aren't.

No... Obama is probably 2-3% ahead and has been for the last 3 months...

Sample includes 32% Dem, 18% GOP

Biases are slowly starting to become more blatant.

Haven't looked it up yet, but are you kidding? 32%D, 18% R??? By the way, if you notice Senator Scott's link, it inidcates that Pew has a worse Democratic house effect than PPP. That should tell you all you need to know.

If only.

This isn't even bias, it has to be a bad joke...

Holy cow, that's just awful!

Well, that explains this poll...

So much GOP denial, so little time.

It'd be interesting to see the reaction if Romney held this kind of a lead in any national poll. I guess we don't have to worry about that happening anytime soon though considering how he's handling himself...

Junk Poll!

This pollster also thinks Obama is holding an identical 48-44 lead in the South. Haha, nope! Whites have fled the Democratic party.

If the sample was R+12 there would be twice as many people calling it out as junk, as they should.

No, it's a shocking poll... you can't have those kinds of breakdowns. No more than the poll a few months back which had Romney LEADING among women and close in the youth vote.

This is as bad as that.

Yay racism!

So let me get this straight. If you are white, live in the south, and don't vote for Obama, you are a racist?? What about Hispanics? If they vote Republican, are they racist? Blacks that vote Republican? That's quite a charge to be throwing around so flippantly.

So the sample is 50% indy? In that case, it's still a good result for the President.

Given the lopsided partisan balance in this poll, their number for the South makes sense, especially when you consider that they are likely using the Census region to define the South and that includes DC, Maryland, and Delaware which are all solidly Democratic areas, tho not enough to have Obama lead the South without the skewed partisan balance.  Still, there's nothing to indicate they did worse in the South than they did elsewhere.

They have Southern Non-Hispanic Whites going 58-33 Romney.

Polls do weigh party ID, otherwise this poll would have been much more heavily skewed toward Obama with such a gap in sample. Nobody expects Obama to win by this much, but I don't think there is a deliberate bias within this poll, party ID is just odd some times.

This isn't a good poll.

krazen's 'the Democrats are the party of =/=well-off white establishment, and this is somehow a bad thing and also they are somehow exclusively so' narrative isn't good either, but we shouldn't mistake that for the poll being good.

What a terrible day, I just agreed with krazen :(

If you can smell it from a mile away then it's probably a BS poll.

If this was Romney leading everyone would be fapping to this thread.

Nonsense. Everyone except maybe Winfield and Politico would rightly expose it as a junk poll, and you know it.

Finally a decent poll!

I'd have to see what the August numbers are on the economy, but suddenly this poll doesn't look so outlandish anymore...